SB Nation - Demetrius Byrd

A Look at Past Chargers' Drafts

Stephen (shaynes41) — Mon, 13 Feb 2012 17:00:07 -0000

The draft is a funny thing. While it is critically important for the long term health of a team, and it's pretty easy to evaluate after 3 years or so, it does seem pretty hard to get a consensus on how good a team is at it. History tends to get revised based on someone's point of view. Remember how we traded sooooo much to get Ryan Mathews? (Really we gave up the #28 and #60 pick plus Charlie Whitehurst and Tim Dobbins and some lower round swaps for the #12 pick, not too bad). Remember what an absolute pile of crap the 2008 draft was? (actually we did manage to get two very good starters out of that draft, but otherwise it did stink). While both sides of those type of arguments have merit, the best way to evaluate a team's drafting is by looking at the whole landscape over the course of the years.

For better or worse, we have been a team that builds through the draft, so we need to be good at it. Too many mistakes and you become the Bills. A lot of reactionary fans tend to either blindly claim that A.J. Smith is either the biggest genius or the biggest idiot they have ever seen assemble an NFL football team. The only way to really be objective about this is to take a look at past drafts. A.J. admitted back in the 2009 off-season that he had to do better, so let's take a look back as see if his drafts have gotten better.

Keep in mind that you typically need three years to evaluate a draft. A.J. is on record saying he won't judge a draft pick as being a success or failure until they get to the point of needing their second contract, which is after 3 or 4 years in the league. Usually by the third year, a player can be accurately evaluated as to their NFL potential. For some players it comes earlier, but typically we need to give a player three years. I've looked at every player we've drafted since 2001, plus any draft slots we traded away and what we got for them. I've also included Undrafted Free Agents (UDFA) who we picked up after the draft and made an impact.

We're going to try and look at this as objectively as possible. We are going to track how many years each player spent with the team, how much they contributed in terms of starting and pro-bowls (made the pro-bowl or actually played). And lastly we are going to look at if they got a second contract, which is A.J. saying they were a good draft pick. With the craziness of the CBA over the last two years, I engaged in some subjectivity with some of the weird unrestricted free agent rules over the last two off-seasons. I sometimes count an RFA tender as a second contract if they would have been unrestricted under the normal CBA (they are marked with an *). Tendering an RFA who would have been an RFA anyways will not count as a second contract. A Franchise tag counts as a second contract.

So, let's get to it!

2012
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(18)
2(49)
3(78)
4(110)
5(149)
6(183)
7(226)
7(250)		compensatory for Sproles/Burnet/Siler/Naanee - Spikes/LaBoy

2011
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(18)	Corey Liuget		Y	Y	Y	Y			1	--
2(50)	Marcus Gilchrist		Y	Y	Y				1	--
2(61)	Jonas Mouton	from NY Jets for Antonio Cromartie	Y						1	--
3(82)	Vincent Brown		Y	Y					1	--
3(89)	Shareece Wright	traded 2010-2(60) and Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle for 2010-2(40) and 2011-3(89)	Y	Y					1	--
4(115)		traded 2010-3(91), 2010-6(173), and 2011-4(115) to San Fransisco for 2010-3(79)
5(149)		traded 2010-5(159) and a 2011-5(149) to Philadelphia for 2010-5(146)
6(183)	Jordan Todman		Y						0+	N
6(201)	Stephen Schilling	compensatory for Osgood and Manumaleuna	Y	Y					1	--
7(220)		traded 7(220) to Dallas for Patrick Crayton
7(234)	Andrew Gachkar	compensatory for Osgood and Manumaleuna	Y	Y					1	--
UDFA	Colin Baxter		Y	Y					1	--
UDFA	Bront Bird		Y	Y					1	--
UDFA	Darryl Gamble		Y	Y					1	--
2010
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(12)	Ryan Mathews	traded 1(28), 2(40), 4(126), and Tim Dobbins to Miami for 1(12), 4(110), and 6(173)	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y		2	--
1(28)		traded 1(28), 2(40), 4(126), and Tim Dobbins to Miami for 1(12), 4(110), and 6(173)
2(40)		traded 2(60) and Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle for 2(40) and 2011 3rd rounder THEN traded 1(28), 2(40), 4(126), and Tim Dobbins to Miami for 1(12), 4(110), and 6(173)
2(60)		traded 2(60) and Charlie Whitehurst to Seattle for 2(40) and 2011 3rd rounder
3(79)	Donald Butler	traded 3(91), 6(173), and 2011 4th rounder to San Fransisco for 3(79)	Y	Y	Y	Y			2	--
3(91)		traded 3(91), 6(173), and 2011 4th rounder to San Fransisco for 3(79)
4(110)	Darrell Stuckey	traded 1(28), 2(40), 4(126), and Tim Dobbins to Miami for 1(12), 4(110), and 6(173)	Y	Y					2	--
4(126)		traded 1(28), 2(40), 4(126), and Tim Dobbins to Miami for 1(12), 4(110), and 6(173)
5(146)	Cam Thomas	traded 5(159) and a 2011 5th rounder to Philadelphia for 5(146)	Y	Y	Y				2	--
5(159)		traded 5(159) and a 2011 5th rounder to Philadelphia for 5(146)
5(168)	Jonathan Crompton	compensatory pick for Goff and Olshansky							0	N
6(173)		traded 1(28), 2(40), 4(126), and Tim Dobbins to Miami for 1(12), 4(110), and 6(173) THEN traded 3(91), 6(173), and 2011 4th rounder to San Fransisco for 3(79)
6(197)		traded to Houston for Travis Johnson
7(235)	Dedrick Epps								0	N
UDFA	Seyi Ajirotutu		Y	Y	Y				1	N
UDFA	Brandon Lang		Y	Y					1	N
UDFA	Kion Wilson		Y	Y					1	N
2009
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(16)	Larry English		Y	Y	Y				3	--
2(47)		traded to NE for Hester pick (2008)
3(78)	Louis Vasquez		Y	Y	Y	Y			3	--
4(113)	Vaughn Martin		Y	Y	Y	Y			3	--
4(133)	Tyronne Green	compensatory pick (Michael Turner)	Y	Y	Y				3	--
4(134)	Gartrell Johnson	compensatory pick (Drayton Florence).							0	N
5(148)	Brandon Hughes		Y	Y					1+	N
6(189)	Kevin Ellison		Y	Y	Y	Y			1	N
7(224)	Demetrius Byrd		Y						1	N
UDFA	C.J. Spillman		Y	Y					1+	N
UDFA	James Holt		Y	Y					2	N
2008
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(27)	Antoine Cason		Y	Y	Y	Y			4	--
2(57)		traded to miami for Chris Chambers
3(69)	Jacob Hester	Traded 5th rounder and 2009 2nd rounder to NE to move up	Y	Y	Y	Y			4	--
3(90)		traded in 2007 to move up to pick Weddle
4(125)		Used in 2007 Supplemental Draft - Oliver
5(160)		traded to NE to move up to pick Hester
5(166)	Marcus Thomas	compensatory pick (Donnie Edwards)							0	N
6(192)	DeJuan Tribble		Y						1	N
7(234)	Corey Clark		Y						2	N
UDFA	Mike Tolbert		Y	Y	Y				4	--
UDFA	Brandyn Dombrowski		Y	Y	Y				4	--
UDFA	Ogemdi Nwagbuo		Y	Y	Y				4	Y*
2007
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(30)	Buster Davis		Y	Y					4	N
2(37)	Eric Weddle	Moved up, trading our 62 overall pick plus 93rd, plus 167th, plus 2008 3rd rounder	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y		5	Y
2(62)		traded for Weddle pick
3(93)		traded for Weddle pick
3(96)	Anthony Waters	compensatory (Drew Brees, Reche Caldwell, Ben Leber, Justin Peelle)	Y	Y					1	N
4(129)	Scott Chandler		Y						2	N
4 (S)	Paul Oliver	4th Round Supplemental Pick	Y	Y	Y (nickel)				5	Y*
5(167)		traded for Weddle pick
5(172)	Legedu Naanee	compensatory (Drew Brees, Reche Caldwell, Ben Leber, Justin Peelle)	Y	Y	Y				4	N
6(204)		traded to Nashville for Volek
7(240)	Brandon Siler		Y	Y	Y				4	N
UDFA	Jyles Tucker		Y	Y	Y				4	Y
UDFA	Antwan Applewhite		Y	Y					4	N
2006
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	occasional starter	full time starter	pro bowl	repeat pro bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(19)	Antonio Cromartie		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	4	N
2(50)	Marcus McNeill		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	6	Y
3(81)	Charlie Whitehurst		Y						4	Y*
4(113)		traded to StLouis for Manumaleuna
5(151)	Tim Dobbins		Y	Y	Y				4	N
6(187)	Jeromey Clary		Y	Y	Y	Y			6	Y
6(188)	Kurt Smith	from miami (for Cleo Lemon, we also got AJ Feeley)							0	N
7(225)	Chase Page								0	N
7(227)	Jimmy Martin	from minnestota (for Fonoti)							0	N
UDFA	Steve Gregory		Y	Y	Y	Y (nickel)			6	Y
2005
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(12)	Shawne Merriman	from NYG in Manning Trade 2004	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	5+	Y*
1(28)	Luis Castillo		Y	Y	Y	Y			7	Y
2(61)	Vincent Jackson		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	7	Y
3(91)		traded to bucs in McCardell Deal
4(130)	Darren Sproles		Y	Y	Y				6	Y
5(144)		from NYG in Manning Deal, traded to Bucs for Roman Oben
5(164)	Wesley Britt								0	N
6(177)	Wes Sims	from Miami (for David Boston)							0	N
6(203)		traded to bucs in McCardell Deal
7(242)	Scott Mruczkowski		Y	Y	Y				7	Y
2004
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(1)		drafted Eli Manning then traded for Rivers, 3rd round pick (65), and 2005 1st and 5th rounder
1(4)	Philip Rivers	From NYG in Manning Trade	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	8	Y
2(35)	Igor Olshansky		Y	Y	Y	Y			5	N
3(65)	Nate Kaeding	From NYG in Manning Trade	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	8	Y
3(66)	Nick Hardwick		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y		8	Y
4(98)	Shaun Phillips		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y		8	Y
5(133)	Dave Ball		Y	Y					1	N
5(154)	Michael Turner	from miami (for Seau). Full time starter andPro Bowler with Atlanta	Y	Y	Y				4	N
6(169)	Ryan Krause		Y	Y					2	N
7(204)	Ryon Bingham		Y	Y	Y				4	N
7(209)	Shane Olivea	from atlanta (for Trevor Gaylor)	Y	Y	Y	Y			4	N
7(254)	Carlos Joseph	compensatory pick							0	N
UDFA	Malcom Floyd		Y	Y	Y	Y			8	Y
UDFA	Wes Welker	~~Didn't make it out of camp~~ Played one game before being cut, eventual repeat pro bowler w/ NE	Y						0	N
2003
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(15)		trade to Philly for Philly's 1st and 2nd
1(30)	Sammy Davis	from philly for #15	Y	Y	Y (nickel)				3	N
2(46)	Drayton Florence		Y	Y	Y	Y			5	N
2(62)	Terrence Kiel	from philly for #15	Y	Y	Y	Y			4	N
3(80)	Courtney Van Buren		Y	Y					2	N
4(112)	Matt Wilhelm		Y	Y	Y	Y			6	Y
5(149)	Mike Scifres		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	9	Y
6(188)	Hanik Milligan		Y	Y			Y (special teams)		2	N
7(229)	Andrew Pinnock		Y	Y	Y				5	N
UDFA	Kassim Osgood		Y	Y			Y (special teams)	Y (special teams)	6	Y
UDFA	Kris Dielman		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	9	Y
UDFA	Antonio Gates		Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	9	Y
UDFA	Jacques Cesaire		Y	Y	Y	Y			9	Y
UDFA	Stephen Cooper		Y	Y	Y	Y			9	Y
2002 - Butler
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(5)	Quentin Jammer		Y	Y	Y	Y			10	Y
2(39)	Toniu Fonoti		Y	Y	Y	Y			2	N
2(48)	Reche Caldwell	from 2001 vick trade	Y	Y	Y				4	N
3(71)	Ben Leber		Y	Y	Y	Y			4	N
4(103)	Justin Peelle		Y	Y	Y				4	N
5(142)	Terry Charles		Y						1	N
6(178)	Matt Anderle								0	N
7(216)	Seth Burford		Y						1	N
2001 - Butler
Rnd.	Player	Notes	Made Team	Played	Occasional Starter	Full Time Starter	Pro Bowl	Repeat Pro Bowl	Years	2nd Contract
1(1)		traded with Falcons for #5, #67, 2002 2nd rounder and Tim Dwight (for Michael Vick pick)
1(5)	LaDainian Tomlinson	from vick trade	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	8	Y
2(32)	Drew Brees	went on to make additional Pro Bowls with the saints	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y		5	Y
3(63)		trade for trevor Gaylor
4(96)		traded to NE for 4th and 5th rounder
3(67)	Tay Cody	from vick trade	Y	Y	Y				3	N
4(112)	Carlos Polk	from NE trade	Y	Y					6	N
5(132)	Elliot Silvers		Y						1	N
5(139)	Zeke Moreno	from NE trade	Y	Y					4	N
6(164)		trade to dolphins for Nate Jacquet
7(201)	Brandon Gorin		Y						2	N
7(244)	Robert Carswell	compensatory	Y						2	N

Let's start by assuming the last two drafts still need some maturing before they can be evaluated. One thing that jumps out is the sheer number of pro bowlers picked in 2003-2006, 3+ per year if you count the special teamers, with at least two repeat pro bowlers each year. Across the NFL, teams average about 0.8 pro bowlers picked per year, so 3/year is astounding. However, 2007-2009 hasn't been nearly as good. Some of that has to do with the Chargers having better records and not drafting as high. But I think part of it has been A.J. trading away too many of his potential impact picks. Impact picks typically come in the first three rounds and A.J. has traded at least one of those away every one of those years. Another thing that I believe got inside A.J.'s head was some of the problem children who he had brought into the team and the NFL's crackdown on character problems. Between Kiel, Foley, Merriman, and Cromartie, A.J. saw some guys whose talent was made ineffective due to their off-field issues. I think A.J. started putting too much a premium on "character" guys. Specifically, I think A.J.'s growing file on guys like Merriman and even Shaun Phillips led him to overvalue English.

Also, AJ's rate of success with his top picks is very good. Ignoring 2011, 17 of his 25 picks in the first three rounds have become full time starters and 9 of them are pro bowlers.

Looking at third day picks (rounds 4-7) 7 of 40 have become full time starters, with an additional 3 making the pro bowl.

AJ has also done a really good job of picking up quality Undrafted Free Agents (college guys who weren't drafted in the 7 round draft). 2003 was just ridiculous picking up Dielman, Gates, and Osgood (pro bowlers) and Cooper and Cesaire. Through AJ's 7 drafts, he has picked up 11 UDFAs who have spent some time as starters and 3 of which were pro bowlers.

Most of us can agree that AJ's drafts were well above average early on and were one of the primary ingredients in turning the Chargers into the powerhouse they were. That being said, even his most staunch supporters have to admit that the 2007 through 2009 drafts were pretty bad and have been a major cause of the last two seasons' disappointments. Even so, for those of us who witnessed some of those late career Beathard stinkers, A.J. seems almost infallible in comparison. Just when it seems like we've got A.J pegged on a downward trend, he gives us 2010 and 2011, with impact first rounders, several early starters, and a pro bowler. One thing I like about A.J. is that he really seems to learn from his mistakes: he has stopped trading away early picks, he has stopped acting like he is just fine-tuning a championship roster, and he has stopped over valuing character guys at the expense of talent. While I am no longer an "In A.J. we trust" guy, I do think his track record has earned him another year.

A Very Special 'Crootin Interview: Scout.com's Sonny Shipp

Billy Gomila — Mon, 23 Jan 2012 19:02:09 -0000

As some of y'all may or may not know, my start in this whole sports-writing game was with Tiger Rag Magazine, circa 2002. And in the two-and-a-half years I worked there, I was lucky enough to work with, learn from and even briefly fill in for, one of the most thorough, enthusiastic, professional and connected recruiting reporters/analysts in the business, Sonny Shipp. In the past few years, Tiger Rag has moved off of the Scout.com network (I can actually remember when it was theinsiders.com), but Sonny has remained as one of the network's chief analysts and scouts for the Louisiana/East Texas region and one of the moderators of the LSU affiliate, Tiger Sports Digest with Shea Dixon and Randy Rosetta. And, he was nice enough to answer a couple of questions for us on LSU's recruiting class of 2012.

1. We're at just about a week to National Signing Day, LSU has a handful of scholarship spots left. What players are the coaches targeting and which ones are realistic possibilities?

At the top of the list you have Mario Edwards and the big question here is will he follow in his father's footsteps or will he carve out his own path. Shea Dixon had some good insight from Mario Sr. following the official visit this past weekend and it looks like it's going to be a NSD announcement that Tiger fans will have to wait on.

The other big need is Cordarrelle Patterson because of Rueben Randle's decision to go pro then you have Jeremy Liggins due to the Gunner Kiel fiasco.

Kwon Alexander would be another big fish to add to the haul as well as Corey Thompson and what a finish that would be if LSU landed those five guys. Odds are they will not but it looks like it will go down to the wire.

2. How do you see the rest of this class filling out?

I think they will finish up with Patterson and possibly Alexander from the list above then turn to some in-state guys with possibly Jacoby Briscoe as a DL and Alonzo Moore as a DB. Those are some guys I expect to get late looks this week.

3. We all saw the hilarious awkwardness that was the Landon Collins Under Armour All-Star Game commitment. Between he, his girlfriend and the rest of his family, is this one of the stranger recruitments you've ever covered?

I've never seen anything like this the way it all played out. There was a lot of misdirection on this saga as some of the close members of the family did not even know what Landon was going to do. In the end, a kid has to do what he feels is best for him and he has to do what he wants to do and not what others want him to do.

4. What happened with Gunner Kiel?

The whole thing about the way this was handled was very poor in my opinion in the fact that the staff could not get any sort of a response at the 11^th hour. I understand a kid not wanting to move across the country for school but you do the right thing and pick up the phone and inform that coaching staff so they can move on and have a chance with another kid. It was very disappointing to see the way that this went down, not necessarily from the perspective of the kid, but more so from the parents.

5. How would you rank it in terms of the talent coming in and the needs it addresses for the team?

If they don't get a QB then there will be a void there but you have to love the LB haul in this class. Let's see what happens in the next 10 days then we will have a better idea of whether or not they met their needs.

6. What is the significance of junior college wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson?

He would come in and have a chance to play right away, similar to Demetrius Byrd. He is a big, physical receiver that would be a nice complement to the smaller receivers that should make an impact next year in Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham and Russell Shepard.

7. Are there any sleepers in this group that you feel are maybe underrated?

I think Travin Dural is underrated along with Dillon Gordon. Gordon is someone who physically has a chance to play very early on and be that run blocker Les Miles likes to have at tight end. Lamar Louis is another one who has a chance to be really good with his athleticism once he settles in at one position.

8. For the hardest of the hardcore, who are some of LSU's top targets for next year's recruiting class?

The 2013 class doesn't have that no-brainer five-star prospect, but I think from top to bottom is a little stronger than the 2012 class. You will probably see about 15 four-star kids and possibly as many as 40-45 three-star prospects, if not more.

There are a lot of kids in the '13 class that have a chance to be good college players and a few names to keep an eye on are receivers John Diarse, Ricky Jefferson, Tre'Davious White, Raheem Falkins and Ronald Lewis, tight ends DeSean Smith and Standish Dobard, defensive end/linebacker Kendell Beckwith, defensive end Tim Williams, cornerback Noel Ellis and offensive lineman Kenneth Santa Marina. There's a bunch more but those are just a few off the top of my head.

NFL Rumors: Tevin's Two Cents On A.J. Smith

Tevin Broner — Thu, 29 Dec 2011 17:01:36 -0000

This has been a disappointing season for the St. Louis Rams, which is how most of their seasons have been recently. It's looking like the Rams will make front office moves in the coming weeks. According to Albert Breer of the NFL Network, owner Stan Kroenke will likely fire both General Manager Billy Devaney as well as head coach Steve Spagnuolo. As for who will be replacing them, it's all rumor right now.

The most popular name linked with the Rams for the General Manager job is current Chargers General Manager A.J. Smith. Although he is still the Chargers GM, it's likely that the Chargers owner will fire him and the head coach, so they can start anew.

For those who want their leaders to be more outspoken, A.J. Smith will make them happy. He is the opposite of Billy Devaney. Honestly, I wouldn't be excited if the Rams added him. I can't get excited by bringing in a guy who is about to be fired. Especially when everyone is excited that he might bring Jon Gruden or Jeff Fisher. It seems like that would make the Chargers leadership happy.

So since I said my 2 cents, here are some quotes I found on what people think about him. Also, as a little bonus, I will put his last three drafts down below.

Here is the situation: Ladanian Tomlinson, the former star running back of the Chargers, gave his opinion on Phillip Rivers. Quote of what LT said. From http://www.signonsandiego.com

"I don't know what Philip may be going through right now," said Tomlinson, in his second season with the Jets following his release by the Chargers in February 2010. "But I will say, to me he seems distracted, for some reason. Like on the sideline, he seems like he's just distracted. And I've always said this: It's hard to be 'the guy.' When they say this is your team, it's hard to be the guy, because you get all the questions of what's wrong and what's right. And then you get your teammates who expect certain things from you, and when that doesn't happen, you get strange looks in the locker room. It's hard to be that guy when it's your team, so that may have a little bit to do with what's going on, too."

General manager A.J. Smith was asked about the former running back’s opinion. As is often the case, Smith had his own opinion. And while the G.M. was clearly supporting Rivers, he also fired back by alluding to Tomlinson’s final season-plus here, in which the running back struggled with a diminished role.

Here is the quote from Smith.

"I agree with what LT said about it’s hard being the guy," Smith said. "But I think it’s a lot harder when it’s no longer your team, and you’re not the guy."

Smith also still holds grudges, that is what he said about Eli Manning earlier this season.

"He was a Charger for 45 minutes," Smith said "and that was too much time to be a Charger, in my opinion."

I'm not trying to make the discussion one-sided at all. He did bring in a lot of talent to the Chargers for years. His personality just rubs me the wrong way at times, but that's just me. It's also my opinion that he's been missing out on recent draft picks.

The reason there's not a good quote in favor of AJ Smith, is because I couldn't find much positive being said about him. The big reason people want him is because of what he did in the past; which was pretty damn great, if he had done better with recent drafts, I wouldn't care if the Rams hired him.

Again, I would rather give Billy Devaney another season, but that's just my opinion, let's see what the Rams will do after the season ends.

Here is AJ Smith's recent drafts, starting in 2008, not including this years draft, because it's too early to tell. Honestly I don't think the Rams drafting will get much better under Smith. The only thing that might be different is that the head coach will most likely have to keep some of the players, instead of cutting them prematurely.

2008 - San Diego Chargers
RD	SEL #	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	27	Antoine Cason Reclaimed starting spot from rookie Marcus Gilchrist Around Nov this year	CB	Arizona
3	69	Jacob Hester Hasn't had over 100 yards in a season.	FB	Louisiana State
5	166	Marcus Thomas cut in 2008	RB	Texas-El Paso
6	192	DeJuan Tribble cut in 2008	CB	Boston College
7	234	Corey Clark cut in 2009	T	Texas A&M

2009 - San Diego Chargers
RD	SEL #	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	16	Larry English Has 7 sacks in his career, 43 tackles total	DE	Northern Illinois
3	78	Louis Vasquez Starting	G	Texas Tech
4	113	Vaughn Martin starter	DT	Western Ontario (Canada)
4	133	Tyronne Green gets playing time, maybe starting	G	Auburn
4	134	Gartrell Johnson cut	RB	Colorado State
5	148	Brandon Hughes cut	CB	Oregon State
6	189	Kevin Ellison cut	DB	USC
7	224	Demetrius Byrd cut	WR	Louisiana State

2010 - San Diego Chargers
RD	SEL #	PLAYER	POSITION	SCHOOL
1	12	Ryan Mathews 1000 yard rusher	RB	Fresno State
3	79	Donald Butler starter	LB	Washington
4	110	Darrell Stuckey on the roster	DB	Kansas
5	146	Cam Thomas backup	DT	North Carolina
5	168	Jonathan Crompton cut	QB	Tennessee
7	235	Dedrick Epps cut	TE	Miami (Fla.)

Why Football Coaches Should Be More Bold

Year2 — Wed, 29 Jun 2011 19:44:09 -0000

Fortune favors the bold.

-Roman playwright Terence, Phormio, 161 BC

Many of the most memorable moments in college football are risky ones. Think about Statue Left, called at the end of the Boise State-Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl, or Matt Flynn lofting a touchdown pass to Demetrius Byrd with a second left on the clock as LSU edged Auburn in 2007.

Anecdotal evidence is great, but how much does being bold pay off in football?

Surprise Onside Kicks

How you define "bold" is a big part of answering that quesiton. Consider the onside kick.

It's generally a play that only happens late in a game when one team scores but is still facing a defecit. In such situations, onside kicks are successful less than 20 percent of the time. However surprise onside kicks, as defined in that link by Advanced NFL Stats proprietor Brian Burke, are successful over 60 percent of the time.

Doing a surprise onside kick effectively steals a possession from the other team when you do it. Given that (depending on pace) most teams only get somewhere in the 10-12 possessions per game range, that's a big deal. Is it really that bold to execute a strategy that gives your team an extra possession when it succeeds 60% of the time? Put that way, it doesn't sound quite so bold after all. Of course if you do enough suprise onsick kicks, they cease to be as surprising and your success rate will fall.

For now, I'll consider strategies outside the conventional wisdom of the game as "bold." In that sense, a surprise onside kick is a bold play. As long as you pick your spots and use them sparingly, they're absolutely a case where being bold pays off.

Going for it on fourth down

First, a prologue on fourth down conversions. Here are how three basic stats on fourth down conversions correlate with winning percentage. The first two rows come from the NCAA stats archive and span from 2005-10. The last row comes from CFB Stats and covers 2006-10.

Dataset	4th Down Att./Game	4th Down Conv./Game	4th Down Conv. Pct.
All I-A	-0.326	-0.058	0.314
SEC, All Games	-0.445	-0.062	0.484
SEC Conf. Play Only	-0.440	-0.112	0.428

The correlations for all of I-A aren't as strong as those for just the SEC are, but the trends are the same across each dataset nonetheless.

The number of fourth down conversion attempts per game has a clear negative correlation with winning percentage. That's not surprising given that teams don't tend to go for it on fourth down unless they're behind. Teams that spend a lot of time behind are usually bad, and that extra time being down leads to more fourth down conversion attempts. The conversions per game is still negative but a lot closer to zero, as good teams attempt fewer fourth down conversions but tend to be good at making them. How do we know that? Because conversion percentage is correlated quite positively with winning percentage. The better the team, unsurprisingly, the better chance it has to succeed on fourth down.

Back in 1893, having a good punting game was considered to have a demoralizing effect on the opponent because good punters were rare and field position was precious. The reverence for punting has faded, but its place in the common wisdom of the game has not.

In recent years, there have been plenty of people examining when teams should go for it on fourth down. Economist David Romer probably started the current trend of looking at that issue, but it has been continued by a variety of people including ESPN's Gregg Easterbrook, Burke, MGoBlog's Mathlete, and the authors of Scorecasting. Unsurprisingly, they all reached more or less the same conclusion: teams should go for it on fourth down far more often than they currently do. To date, the only person to take those studies and make a strategy out of them is the oft-profiled Kevin Pulaski, a high school coach in Arkansas.

When it comes down to it, the equation on what to do on fourth down is complex. Its variables include the quality of your offense, the quality of the defense you're facing, and sometimes the skill of your field goal kicker too. You can't make a chart that applies to all teams in all situations. It's at the very least something for teams with good offenses to look into (see the table above), especially when knowing you're not punting in a given region of the field opens up more options with the first three downs of a set.

Underdog Strategies

The topic of what underdogs should do has been explored in great detail at Chris Brown's Smart Football site (see here, here, and the links contained here). Both he and those he links to generally agree on one point: underdogs should pursue high variance strategies.

The overarching principle at work here is regression to the mean. Most events have typical outcomes, described by things like the mean and median. In small numbers of trials, the outcomes can have a mean and median that varies wildly from that natural mean and medium. Over a large number of trials, that difference will smooth out and that set of trials' mean and medium will end up very close to the natural values.

In football terms, an underdog is generally going to want to keep the number of possessions in a game as low as possible. Adding more possessions increases the number of trials, so to speak, making it more likely that the outcome of the game matches what you'd expect. That's not everything an underdog team can do though, which is where increasing variance comes into play.

"Increasing variance" is a fancy way of taking more risk. Being bolder, in other words. It increases your chances of losing badly, but it also increases your chances of winning. As an underdog, you're more likely to lose than win anyway, so what's it matter if it's by 14 or 28?

Springing a surprise onside kick would be an example of being bold, though as noted above, it might not be adding much more risk. So is going for it on fourth down, especially if the other team leaves points on the board by refusing to ever do it. Running trick plays falls in here too, as they tend to be risky but also have large potential payoffs.

Passing has a higher variance in outcome than running does, so underdogs should probably toss it around a bit. Consider 2007 Stanford, a 4-8 team that wasn't very good. It somehow managed to beat 11-2 USC in Los Angeles despite starting Tavita Pritchard, a mildly talented true sophomore quarterback in his first amount of meaningful experience. Jim Harbaugh could have gone with conventional wisdom and tried to protect him with a ton of running. Instead, he called 33 pass plays (passes plus sacks) versus 36 runs, an agressive ratio given his quarterback's status and the ferocity of USC's defense. Pritchard only completed 11 tosses, but they went for 149 yards with a TD and only one INT. It worked. Of course, Stanford threw it a lot more the week before and got pasted 41-3 by an 11-3 Arizona State team. That's the other side of increased variance.

There is plenty of room in football for more boldness. Whether it's merely bold because it defies convention, like surprise onside kicks, or because it truly is risky, like an underdog throwing more than common sense would suggest, you can make reasoned cases for coaches to live closer to the edge. However until coaches start getting fired for punting on fourth down too much, I don't anticipate seeing a lot more boldness across the board.

Open Thread: 2011 NFL Draft, Rounds 4-7

John Gennaro — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 15:45:17 -0000

Day 3! The final, and most grueling, day of the NFL Draft is here.

If you're a Chargers fan, you can go back to bed for a little while. Even though the picking starts at 9am Pacific, the Chargers do not have a 4th or 5th round pick. All of the important selections have been made, and when the Chargers use either of their 6th round picks (183, 201) and their 7th round pick (234) they'll be taking guys that are projects, camp bodies and long-shots to make the roster.

Recent 6th & 7th round picks for the Bolts include: Dedrick Epps, Kevin Ellison, Demetrius Byrd, DeJuan Tribble, Corey Clark, Brandon Siler, Jeromey Clary, Kurt Smith, Chase Page and Jimmy Martin. Okay, so I was wrong. Ellison, Siler and Clary have all made good contributions to the team. Maybe there's somebody left out there that could do the same.

So far the Chargers have grabbed themselves a DE, a nickel CB or FS that can return kicks and punts, an ILB that can serve as insurance for Kevin Burnett/Brandon Siler/Donald Butler (respectively: UFA/RFA/coming back from major injury), a local WR with good fundamentals and a CB that fell due to an injury on his Pro Day, but might have the potential to eventually replace Quentin Jammer on the outside.

As I said yesterday, I didn't really see the point of grabbing another OLB if the only ones that were left were going to be roughly as talented as Jyles Tucker, Antwan Applewhite, Antwan Barnes and Larry English (potential still not met). The depth is there, and the only reason to grab someone is if they're going to step in and be better than all of them. That seems to always be the philosophy of this team. I'll break this down on a pick-by-pick basis tomorrow.

Stick around here tonight as news will fly in fast and furiously about which undrafted free agents are coming to San Diego. That's always fun.

Classic Study Hall: LSU vs Ohio State (2007)

Bill C. — Sun, 27 Mar 2011 15:57:55 -0000

Of all the recent BCS title games, I was most looking forward to giving this one the Study Hall treatment because ... well, I really don't remember much about it. The general memory is 1) Chris Wells broke a long run and tOSU took an early lead, 2) tOSU fell apart/LSU hit the gas, 3) the end. Let's expand on that a little, eh?

One of the most interesting ideas to emerge from SBN's BCS Evolution site is the concept of the flexible tournament, the idea that there isn't a clear, well-defined number of teams deserving of a shot at the title from year to year. Sometimes the current system works just about perfectly -- 2005, for instance. Sometimes there are 3-4 deserving teams (say, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2010). And sometimes, as in 2007, the concept of an all-in, 16-teamer seems just about perfect.

The 2007 season was truly a clusterf*** of the utmost degree. Over the last six weeks of the regular season, an incredible 11 teams ranked among the BCS' Top 5: Arizona State, Boston College, Georgia, Kansas, LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Oregon, Virginia Tech and West Virginia. The No. 2 team in the country lost approximately 38 straight weeks. LSU lost to Kentucky and fell from the top spot, reached the top spot again and lost again, and still made the BCS title game. Much of the season, new teams threatened to crack college football's rigid top-tier power structure -- Arizona State and Oregon from the west, Boston College and West Virginia from the east, Missouri and Kansas from the midwest; and honestly, it felt almost disappointing* when two established powers -- LSU and Ohio State -- made the title game in the end.

* Well, of COURSE it was disappointing to this Missouri fan. Stupid Oklahoma...

While a 16-team playoff might have produced any of about eight different champions this time around, this is not the system we have. We got LSU and Ohio State, and the night of January 7, 2008, we got our first two-loss national champion.

Just to fill in the gaps in my own memory, let's go quarter-by-quarter here.

First Quarter

To say the least, Ohio State responded well at first to having to face LSU in their backyard. On the Buckeyes' first drive, Todd Boeckman found Brian Robiskie for seven yards on third-and-5 (it took just three plays for Robiskie to make more of a positive impact than he had in the previous year's title game), and on the next play Beanie Wells raced 65 yards for a touchdown and a 7-0 Ohio State lead. A poor snap on third-and-7 led to an LSU three-and-out, and Boeckman found Brandon Saine for 44 yards on the first play of the Buckeyes' next drive. It set up a Ryan Pretorius field goal, and just six minutes into the game Ohio State had a surprising 10-0 lead. Things are looking great for the Buckeyes! They've responded beautifully to last year's BCS disappointment!

LSU responded well to the sudden adversity. Matt Flynn found Early Doucet for 10 yards on third-and-7, then Jacob Hester converted a third-and-3 at the LSU 40 and a third-and-1 at the tOSU 15. LSU stalled and settled for a field goal, and after Wells ran for 12 yards on two plays, Ohio State punted. Chad Jones fumbled the A.J. Trapasso punt, but Harry Coleman recovered at the LSU 16; one of the most underrated, forgotten plays of a given game comes when an offense recovers its own fumble. We tend to forget about those plays, but they are so incredibly pivotal. Instead of OSU starting the second quarter in nearly guaranteed scoring position, LSU instead started the game-tying drive.

First Quarter S&P: Ohio State 1.172, LSU 0.526.

Second Quarter

Bullet dodged, LSU started breaking off larger chunks of yards, and OSU began to falter. After Hester converted another third-and-1, Keiland Williams went over left end for 10 yards; OSU's Todd Denlinger committed a personal foul penalty to boot. From the OSU 46, Flynn found Demetrius Byrd for 20 yards, and James Laurinaitis committed another personal foul. Flynn found Richard Dickson for 13 yards and the game-tying touchdown; the 84-yard drive benefited significantly from 28 yards of Ohio State penalties.

Now tied, OSU responded reasonably well. Wells broke off a 29-yarder over left end (he was brilliant early in this game), then Boeckman found Robiskie for another 19 yards. Yet another OSU personal foul -- this one on Brian Hartline -- backed the Buckeyes up, but a 22-yard pass to Saine kept them rolling. On third-and-3 from the LSU 21, Boeckman floated a lovely pass to Robiskie near the end zone, but it was dropped, and Ricky Jean-Francois blocked the resulting field goal attempt.

The personal fouls were costly, but the drop-and-block completely took the wind out of Ohio State's sails. Plays of 13, 9, 18 and 9 yards set up a Flynn-to-Brandon-LaFell touchdown pass, and midway through the second quarter, LSU was up 17-10. Then it got worse. Chevis Jackson made a gorgeous interception, setting up a 24-yard touchdown drive. Hester went in from a yard out, and it was 24-10 LSU. If OSU recovers the Chad Jones fumble, they have a chance to go up 14 points; eleven minutes later, they're down 14 points, mostly at their own doing.

A Tyson Jackson sack killed OSU's final drive of the half, and LSU went into the break up 14.

Second-quarter S&P: LSU 1.230, Ohio State 0.656

Third Quarter

Though they had imploded in the second quarter, Ohio State was still within reach when the second half began. LSU methodically drove into OSU territory -- Hester converted yet another third-and-1, then Flynn converted one as well -- but Vernon Gholston sacked Flynn for a huge loss and LSU was forced to punt. Naturally, however, OSU roughed the punter. (It was major roughage, though I honestly don't know how the rougher failed to block the punt.) Then, on the next play, OSU committed another personal foul. Three plays later, Flynn found Doucet for four yards and the game-deciding touchdown.

A Quick Note about Penalties: on average, there is very little correlation between penalties and wins/losses, as strangely as that may sound. Penalties often hint at a level of aggressiveness that pays off for a team as often as it costs them. Because of that, there is no current place for penalties in the S&P+ formula. But there are always exceptions to the rule. This game, for instance. Ohio State lost this game not because of "SEC SPEEEEED," but because of their own dunder-headedness as much as anything else. (Then again, the physicality that led to the penalties potentially also led to their good plays, so maybe this isn't as good an example as I thought.)

Ohio State is not a team built to come back from 21 points down, but they did a reasonably decent job here. They drove into LSU territory before Ali Highsmith and Jean-Francois combined for a third-down sack. They picked Flynn off on the next drive, then poked the ball into the end zone on the resulting 11-yard drive. They were back within 14 points when the fourth quarter began.

Third-quarter S&P: Ohio State 0.721, LSU 0.706.

Fourth Quarter

LSU went three-and-out to start the final stanza, and Ohio State had their chance to make this a game again. Boeckman found Hartline for 17 yards, Wells went left for 11 more yards, and Robiskie went over the middle for 13. OSU faced a third-and-4 from LSU's 31, but Boeckman was sacked by Kirston Pittman for a short loss. Fourth-and-7, last gasp for the Buckeyes ... and Boeckman was lit up by Ali Highsmith and seemingly eight other Tigers. He fumbled, Harry Coleman recovered, and that was basically ballgame. OSU got the ball back after another three-and-out, but Curtis Taylor picked Boeckman off. LSU went 53 yards in nine plays to go up, 38-17. Boeckman found Hartline three times late, eventually scoring on a 15-yarder, but mistakes and LSU's devastating defensive line had long since put the game away.

Now, to the stats.

LSU 38, Ohio State 24
	LSU	Ohio St.		LSU	Ohio St.
Close %	96.9%		STANDARD DOWNS
Field Position %	61.1%	39.0%	Success Rate	55.2%	50.0%
Leverage %	80.6%	67.9%	PPP	0.39	0.52
			S&P	0.942	1.022
TOTAL
EqPts	26.4	22.4	PASSING DOWNS
Close Success Rate	48.6%	38.5%	Success Rate	21.4%	22.2%
Close PPP	0.37	0.35	PPP	0.27	0.14
Close S&P	0.853	0.738	S&P	0.486	0.366

RUSHING			TURNOVERS
EqPts	9.4	10.1	Number	1	3
Close Success Rate	43.2%	40.0%	Turnover Pts	5.8	14.4
Close PPP	0.21	0.40	Turnover Pts Margin	+8.6	-8.6
Close S&P	0.646	0.805
Line Yards/carry	2.67	3.32	Q1 S&P	0.526	1.172
			Q2 S&P	1.230	0.656
PASSING			Q3 S&P	0.706	0.721
EqPts	17.0	12.3	Q4 S&P	0.804	0.727
Close Success Rate	57.1%	37.0%
Close PPP	0.61	0.31	1st Down S&P	0.830	1.082
Close S&P	1.179	0.677	2nd Down S&P	0.728	0.661
SD/PD Sack Rate	0.0% / 14.3%	16.7%/15.4%	3rd Down S&P	1.070	0.445
Projected Pt. Margin: LSU +12.6 \| Actual Pt. Margin: LSU +14

Different Script, Same Result

When I wrote about Florida-Ohio State last week, I said the following:

The "ESSSSS EEEEEE SEEEEE SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED" meme has been around as long as the SEC, I believe, but the modern (and most defensible) iteration of it began, really, in early-January 2007. That was when an SEC team -- one that required a little bit of politicking just to get into the title game -- took on an Ohio State team that had been considered, since the season's first day, the nation's preeminent team ... and absolutely pantsed them. Ran circles around them. It was so bad that, the next season, when Ohio State played well for a while and ended up losing to LSU by a respectable margin (14 points on the scoreboard, four EqPts in the box score, and in LSU's backyard, no less) ... it was roundly viewed that they got dominated again ... but really, a lot of that was just hungover perception from this game. (In my opinion, anyway.) Rarely in such a big game has one team seemingly had such a speed advantage over another.

That was probably an incomplete thought. LSU's defensive line was fantastic -- and athletically superior -- on passing downs, but the point I was trying to make was simply that Ohio State was not, as a whole, athletically dominated in this game. They made killer mistakes -- mostly in the second and third quarters -- but the aforementioned SEC SPEEEED was not the reason they lost this game. It was obvious LSU had an athleticism advantage when OSU had to pass, but otherwise the battle was mostly a draw.

Strong Strengths, Weak Weaknesses

It's funny to say this, but Ohio State ran the ball quite well in both the 2007 and 2008 title games. They managed an 0.811 S&P against Florida in 2007 (3.36 line yards per carry) and an 0.805 S&P against LSU (3.32). Their problem against LSU was simply that their overall efficiency was not that strong. Their fourth and fifth drives took a turn for the worst when Wells was stuffed for no gain on first-and-10; if Wells got past the line, good things happened, but if he got stuffed, OSU's passing game was exposed. The combination of OSU receivers' lack of separation and great Florida/LSU defensive lines was too much for either Troy Smith or Todd Boeckman. Though LSU's sack rates (16.7% on standard downs, 15.4% on passing downs) did not match Florida's ridiculous ones (22.2% / 30.0%), they were clearly good enough against an OSU team not well-equipped to play from behind.

Targets and Catches

LSU	Targets	Catches	Catch%	Target%	Rec. Yds.	Yds. Per Target
Early Doucet (WR)	10	7	70.0%	37.0%	51	5.1
Richard Dickson (TE)	4	4	100.0%	14.8%	44	11.0
Demetrius Byrd (WR)	4	2	50.0%	14.8%	28	7.0
Brandon LaFell (WR)	2	2	100.0%	7.4%	15	7.5
Keith Zinger (TE)	2	1	50.0%	7.4%	18	9.0
Charles Scott (RB)	2	1	50.0%	7.4%	16	8.0
Quinn Johnson (FB)	1	1	100.0%	3.7%	3	3.0
Keiland Williams (RB)	1	1	100.0%	3.7%	-1	-1.0
N/A	1	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
TOTAL	27	19	70.4%	100.0%	174	6.4
TOTAL (WR)	16	11	68.8%	59.3%	94	5.9
TOTAL (RB)	4	3	75.0%	14.8%	18	4.5
TOTAL (TE)	6	5	83.3%	22.2%	62	10.3

Ohio State fans should appreciate LSU quarterback Matt Flynn; he performed the role of Craig Krenzel quite well in this game. Just don't make mistakes, make conservative reads, convert your third-and-1's, and let your defense set you up for scores. Flynn completed 70% of his passes for a less-than-robust 6.4 yards per attempt, and the biggest weapon for the Tigers was the good old tight end.

Ohio State	Targets	Catches	Catch%	Target%	Rec. Yds.	Yds. Per Target
Brian Hartline (WR)	11	6	54.5%	42.3%	75	6.8
Brian Robiskie (WR)	7	5	71.4%	26.9%	50	7.1
Brandon Saine (RB)	4	3	75.0%	15.4%	69	17.3
Ray Small (WR)	3	1	33.3%	11.5%	14	4.7
N/A	1	0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
TOTAL	26	15	57.7%	100.0%	208	8.0
TOTAL (WR)	21	12	57.1%	80.8%	139	6.6
TOTAL (RB)	4	3	75.0%	15.4%	69	17.3
TOTAL (TE)	0	0	N/A	0.0%	N/A	N/A

Credit Ohio State's offensive staff for, possibly, realizing OSU's lack of separation ability and figuring out a way to surprise LSU numerous times with passes to running back Saine downfield. It was a nice and important wrinkle, but it was only going to work so many times. Eventually Ohio State was going to have to count on Hartline and Robiskie to succeed, and until the last drive (when the game was far out of reach), it just didn't happen with any reliability. Robiskie did catch five of seven balls thrown his way

In the two national title games, Hartline and Robiskie combined to catch 12 of 23 targeted passes for 112 yards (4.9 per pass). Take away Ohio State's garbage time drive in this one, and it's 9-for-19 for 73 yards (3.8 per pass). Yuck.

Also: in two national title games, Ohio State tight ends were targeted zero times.

Summary

In sports, timing is everything. In college football, however, it's more than everything. Mark Richt is somewhat maligned at Georgia, in part because he hasn't ever won a national title. But if he had put his 2002 team on the field in 2007, they'd have likely romped to the national title. Meanwhile, Les Miles has yet to lose fewer than two games in a season in Baton Rouge, and yet he is a member of the Title Winners fraternity that has denied Richt. And to that end, LSU has put together two title runs in the BCS era -- both of which came when the BCS title game was being held in New Orleans.

No matter the timing, and no matter the gray area, however, the banners are still the same size. Miles won one in one of college football's oddest seasons. His team put itself in position to take advantage of Ohio State's lapses, and power to him -- and them -- for that.

Denver Broncos News: Horse Tracks - 2/22/11

Jeremy Bolander — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 14:15:37 -0000

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Broncos should take a long look at A&M linebacker Miller, who's cast in the Dumervil mold - The Denver Post
Fifty-game starters. This group is almost a lock among offensive linemen, but across the board, 50-game starters seem to understand, beyond the physical skills it takes to survive in the NFL, that it's about work ethic, practice habits and working through the day-to-day grind of things. Broncos cornerback Syd'Quan Thompson, a 52-game starter at Cal, is a great example of this, having simply forced the Broncos to keep him after being a seventh-round pick last year by the way he conducted himself in his first training camp and first season overall.

Second Time Around
The tight end said his goals for his second NFL offseason include intensifying his training and returning to the team ready to develop a larger role on the squad. "I wish I could definitely always do more," he said. "Now I know this NFL experience is a grind. You just have to get better every day. You have to climb and you have to strive to achieve. There are a lot of things that I have on myself that I want to get done this offseason so I can help improve for the team."

Q&A: Don't look for the Broncos to ever move training camp from Dove Valley - The Denver Post
NFL Players Association may agree to reduce the number of days of two-a-day practices and perhaps the length of training camp, especially if the preseason has only two games because of a move to an 18-game regular season. The Broncos and other NFL teams limit distractions during training camp by keeping their players at the complex pretty much all day, capped by meetings each night. The Broncos' playoff drought has much more to do with personnel decisions than where the team conducts training camp.

NFL.com news: Uncertainty about Tebow leaves Broncos with draft dilemma
So Tebow is a man without much support in Denver, making quarterback a huge need. Can the Broncos be so focused on defense that they ignore an NFL team's most essential position? Or will they feel like Kyle Orton can manage the game well enough to allow them to replenish the defense, something near and dear to Fox's heart?

40 fans show up at Champ Bailey Rally | ProFootballTalk
He may be worth a short-term, Richard Seymour-like contract, but not with the Broncos. The Broncos are in rebuilding mode, and paying a 33-year-old cornerback huge money when the defense has so many problems doesn’t make a lot of sense. Will Bailey still be playing at a high level by the time Denver is contending for titles? Letting Bailey walk would show that John Elway is not afraid to make tough choices with long-term goals in mind.

LenDale White on Pete Carroll: "F— you" | ProFootballTalk
"If it ain’t the Denver Broncos or Chris Johnson . . . f— ‘em. Or D-Byrd [Demetrius Byrd] . . . or the Trojans . . . minus Pete Carroll — f– you," White told TMZ before looking into the camera. "Minus Pete Carroll I have Trojan love." Looks like we can rule out a return for White back to Seattle. (Frankly, we wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t play in the NFL again.)

Q&A with Tim Tebow: On his autobiography, competing to be a starter and his bachelor status | jacksonville.com
How has the demands on your time from fans in Denver compare with what you dealt with at Florida? That’s a good question. At both places, they have wonderful, passionate fans. That’s one of the things I love about being a Bronco. There are different things I try to do now as far as fan interaction. At Florida, I was around them all the time going to classes. I don’t have to deal with that as much here, but I’m more involved with my foundation and the community. It always seemed like I’d have more time this offseason, but things fill up quickly. It’s training, growing my foundation or hanging out with my family. Those three things take up 95 percent of my time. That’s my life right now.

YouTube - Ed McCaffrey catches tipped ball for game winning TD (1996 @ Minnesota)

NFL NEWS: GENERAL

Mailbag: Super Bowl QBs With the Fewest Career Home Playoff Games " Pro-football-reference.com blog " Blog Archive
Question answered -- here are the fewest previous playoff home games (appearances, not just starts) by a Super Bowl-winning QB:

Cold, Hard Football Facts.com: A CHFF theory elevated to Man LawYet in the 2010 draft, the Broncos and Cowboys foolishly placed their first-round hopes and dreams in wide receivers. Denver selected Demaryius Thomas with the No. 22 overall pick. He battled a foot injury in training camp, later suffered an ankle injury and a concussion, and missed a total six regular-season games. He ended the year with 22 catches for 283 yards and 2 TDs. Oh, and he tore his Achilles’ tendon last week – an injury from which it could take him up to eight months to recover. So the 2011 season does not look to promising either.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Wisdom of Crowds Review: Quarterbacks
t's time to take a trip back to the summer and revisit our 2010 Wisdom of Crowds predictions. For those that have forgotten, it's an exercise we go through before and after each season with the help of my Twitter account. Each day, I ask users to predict three statistics for a given player while assuming that the player in question will play a full 16-game season. We use the average projection as our baseline projection of what the public thinks about a particular player's performance heading into the season. Now, we'll review those predictions and the thoughts I gave about them before this season passed.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | How Good Was Oakland's Offense?
Believe it or not, the Raiders ranked sixth in the NFL in points scored this year. I honestly had no idea. I've been going through the whole season thinking of them in terms of DVOA, where they ranked 23rd.

Ed Wang of Buffalo Bills hoping to grow game in China - ESPN
"There is no real basis or history of football in China so we rely a lot on the media to educate people about the game," said Stephanie Hsiao, the NFL's China marketing manager. As for staging an NFL exhibition game in China, Hsiao said that was a goal but no date had been set. At least four current or former NFL players boast partial Chinese ancestry, including New England Patriots second-year safety Patrick Chung.

DeAngelo Williams' Health Creates Tough Decision for Ron Rivera at Running Back -- NFL FanHouse
Is DeAngelo Williams done in Charlotte? Next question. Could he be playing for the Saints next season? The Panthers have not yet put a franchise tag on Williams, so perhaps they feel they can come to a reasonable long-term deal with him. They have until Thursday before Williams gets out on the open market, provided the terms of any new collective bargaining agreement on franchised players remain in place.

49ers' Proposed New Stadium Jeopardized by California Budget Crisis -- NFL FanHouse
According to KGO-TV, Brown is looking at cutting redevelopment funds, a move that the governor's office said could save the state $1.7 billion per year. It's his proposal to give that money back to local governments and schools, but Santa Clara says it needs its share of the redevelopment money to help fund a new stadium for the 49ers.

YouTube - Eli Manning: The Meek Clown Of The Sporting Field
Eli Manning on The Onion Sports Dome

Jets will begin furloughs in event of lockout | ProFootballTalk
Daniel Kaplan of SportsBusiness Journal reports that the Jets will being placing employees on furlough, if a new labor deal with the NFLPA isn’t reached by March 4. Jets executive V.P. of business operations Matt Higgins said that employees in business operations will be required to take a one-week, unpaid leave of absence every month until a new labor deal is negotiated. Employees on the football side will be safe at least until after the draft, in late April.

News Article " Telegram announcing Matson's trade
This is the telegram sent by the Los Angeles Rams to the National Football League office on Feb. 28, 1959 announcing the trade of nine players to the Chicago Cardinals in exchange for Hall of Fame halfback Ollie Matson. The deal was orchestrated by the Rams’ general Manager and future NFL Commissioner Pete Rozelle.

Doug Williams says "good ol’ boy network is alive and well" in front offices | ProFootballTalk
"The good ol’ boy network is alive and well," Williams tells Rick Stroud of the St. Petersburg Times, via JoeBucsFan.com. "But it’s changed from the good ol’ boy network to the fraternity. I always find a way to overcome and just keep going forward." Williams is referring to his desire to become a General Manager, the goal of his jump to the Bucs after leaving Grambling the first time around. Currently, only five of the 32 NFL G.M. jobs are held by minorities.

540 ESPN Milwaukee
On the idea of moving to safety to accommodate Asomugha: "If I talked to Dom (Capers) and he thought that was the best thing for us to win another championship I would do it. This thing is about winning. If this would have been my fifth year in the league I probably would have told you hell no but at this point if that was going to get me another championship why wouldn’t I?"

Bears coach answers questions from fans
"I think he’s been a great leader. First off, guys always watch you—in the classroom, on the practice field and of course your play on game day. And they like what they’ve seen from him in that sense. Jay is a tough guy, and the quarterback of the Chicago Bears should be a tough guy. The number of hits Jay took this past season, our guys saw that he constantly got up, didn’t complain, and took responsibility for what was happening with our offense. To me, that’s a leader."

Bob Sanders will visit Buffalo next | ProFootballTalk
Sanders paid a visit to the Jaguars on Monday and reportedly underwent a medical exam. It’s unknown whether he can currently even pass a physical, so contract offers may be tough to come by this month.

NFL DRAFT

Carolina at the NFL Combine: No Quarterbacks Worthy Enough for No. 1 -- NFL FanHouse
It's make or break time for those players who want to be Carolina's top choice in the draft. The NFL Combine will get underway this week with the glare on quarterbacks, as usual. Here are some players the Panthers are not going to pick: Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, Washington's Jake Locker and Auburn's Cam Newton. They are not No. 1 material.

ProFootballWeekly.com - Draft Dose: Linebacker U.
ver the years, Penn State has developed a reputation for being "Linebacker U." Hall of Famer Jack Ham played at State College in the late 1960s before playing a key role on the Steelers' Super Bowl teams, Greg Buttle was a force during the early '70s before being a standout for the Jets, and recently a new generation of star-studded linebackers has come up through the ranks. LaVar Arrington ushered in this new wave of 'backers in late 1990s, before going on to star in the NFL with the Redskins. In the sixth installment of the Draft Dose series, we look back at some of the most recent 'backers who continue to uphold the tradition of "Linebacker U." in the order in which they entered the league.

Who really are the best quarterback prospects in the draft? | National Football Post
In my view, the "it" factor is a combination of leadership, poise, intelligence, football instincts, work ethic, passion for the game, drive, winning attitude, willingness to compete and mental toughness.

Who’s the draft’s late round RB gem? | National Football Post
Every year we hear about a late round/free agent running back who makes a roster and ends up fighting for playing time early in his NFL career. Therefore, today we highlight some of the top potential late round/free agent type backs who could all fit that mold for this year and end up out producing some of the "more talented" running backs drafted before them.

The need for speed | National Football Post
Today we’re going to take a look at the nine players who posted a sub-4.3 40-yard dash since the Combine implemented electronic timing back in 1999. Did these guys improve their draft stock? Did they have or are they having a productive NFL career?

NFL Scouting Combine: Workout Warriors
40-YARD DASH SLEEPER WR Andre Holmes, Hillsdale- He runs better than you think at 6’4 ½ 209 pounds as he ran a 4.44 at 200 last spring. It will be interesting to see if he can improve his time despite gaining weight. We just want to throw it out there that he has ran 4.4s before and is a name to look out for as a possible surprise blazer.

Combine preview: Top performances, player projections - NFL - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com
Note that before 2006, many of the top players did not fully participate in combine workouts. The theory was they were more concerned that it might hurt their draft status -- many times on the advice of their agents, not because they were not willing to run -- and instead opted to work out in the comfortable environs offered at an on-campus workout or Pro Day. Five years ago, when the event was first televised live, most every player decided running the 40 and other at least partially participating in on-field drills was in their best interest. Worth noting: Many first-round picks prior to 2000 didn't work out in Indianapolis, leading to many past second-round picks being listed in the notable performers category below.

Fairley and Newton Poised to Make NFL Draft History - Track Em Tigers
So how does Auburn get itself in position to have two players taken at the top of the NFL draft? Amazingly, it's doable and realistic. The Panthers have made no secret they are in the market for a quarterback. Should Newton's stock continue to rise after his appearance at the upcoming NFL Combine, the Panthers may take a second look at Newton. Should Newton go first, that makes Fairley available to the Broncos. Then the question for Denver becomes whether it wants Bowers or Fairley. Most NFL Scouts rate Fairley slightly ahead of Bowers.

Hamstring healed, Rudolph pumped for NFL draft - Chicago Tribune
Kyle Rudolph's celebratory bellow last Monday cut through the commotion at Velocity Sports Performance. His lead strength coach, Ken Vick, looked over, and Rudolph raised one finger on one hand and four on the other: He'd reached 14 mph on a self-propelled treadmill. Rudolph then signaled that he distributed weight evenly between both legs, and he smiled a goofy smile. Seventeen weeks after hamstring surgery, and just two weeks before the NFL scouting combine, it was the fastest the former Notre Dame tight end had moved. For Rudolph, everything was in balance.

Corey Liuget NFL Draft Scouting Report - Mocking The Draft
Run defend: One of Liuget's biggest strengths is his ability to quickly locate the football. As a run defender you need to be able to quickly identify the ball carrier and work your way towards him. Liuget possesses both the awareness and skills to be an effective run defender. His first step and leverage allow him to take control of the offensive line and drive them towards the football. He uses his quick and heavy hands to disengage from the blocker and then his closing burst to make the play.

NFL LOCKOUT

Gabriel A. Feldman: NFL Labor Negotiations: Are We Headed for the Doomsday Scenario?
In the current negotiations, we're not dealing with fights over the creation of free agency or the implementation of a salary cap. The players have free agency and the owners have a cap. But, are the owners asking for a sea change? That's a difficult question. One could make an argument that the NFL's latest proposal for a rookie wage scale--which could actually impact a majority of NFL players--would represent something close to a sea change. But, despite the NFL's proposal, it's difficult for anyone to argue--even the owners--that the system is broken. The NHL owners were willing to cancel an entire season because they believed they lost less money by not playing games than by playing games. That is certainly not the situation facing the owners and their multi-billion dollar television deals.

Negotiating an N.F.L. Contract in the Social Media Age - NYTimes.com
The N.F.L.’s labor negotiations are the first of a major sports league to be played out in the social media age, giving hundreds of players, dozens of agents, millions of fans and even a handful of owners the equivalent of a gigantic microphone to offer instant — sometimes frustrated — analysis of the once-cloaked minutiae of contentious negotiation. The real-time reactions on Twitter may sometimes give the impression that events surrounding the labor talks are moving quickly — in fact, they have been barely moving at all — but they are also opening a filter-free pipeline with fans that players have long said they wanted.

Sports Radio Interviews " Blog Archive " Matt Birk Advocates Adding Playoff Teams Instead of Regular Season Games
One of the seemingly many sticking points during the negotiations — or currently non-negotiations — is the owners’ desire for an 18-game season and the players’ arguments against it based on health concerns, amongst others. Baltimore Ravens center and players union rep Matt Birk argues, instead, that the NFL could add two playoff teams. Adding a pair of postseason teams would force the top two seeds to go without a bye in the playoffs, but would present the opportunity for two more televised games and, therefore, more revenue. Maybe it’s not the end-all, be-all of fixes, but adding more playoffs while taking away meaningless preseason games sounds pretty good to me.

NFL, union exit from 4th day of mediation - NFL- NBC Sports
"Things are going well," said Batch, a member of the NFL Players Association executive committee. "We'll see how things progress over the coming days." He didn't discuss any details.

Mike Ditka says "crazy" 18-game season idea is all about the money | ProFootballTalk
"I’m not for an 18-game season," Ditka said on ESPN’s Outside the Lines. "If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. And the only thing it’s about is money." Ditka was appearing on a panel discussing the suicide of his former player, Dave Duerson, and whether it could have been tied to depression stemming from brain damage suffered on the field. Ditka said that he can’t square NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell’s desire for two more regular season weeks with the league’s claims that it’s serious about player safety.

18-game season: $500 million issue | National Football Post
Today’s "myth versus reality" comes from the owners’ side in the negotiation: "The "enhanced" 18-game season is what the fans want" Not really.

Better Know a Freshman: James Wright - Mr. Physical Physical

Paul Crewe — Sat, 04 Sep 2010 18:08:13 -0000

Over the past several seasons the amount of WR talent which stepped through the gates and onto the field at Tiger Stadium is nearly unmatched by any program across the country. Names like Early Doucet, Dwayne Bowe, Buster Davis, Brandon LaFell, Demetrius Byrd, and Josh Reed earn LSU the distinction of WR U. Guys like Terrance Toliver, Rueben Randle and Russell Shepard look to continue that tradition in 2010.

But those aren't the only names that will be contributors this season. The 2010 recruiting class ushered in a handful of talented names to help fill out the thin depth chart. Kadron Boone is the name most Tiger fans are excited about, but after summer camps and early practices, it seems that James Wright is the one making the biggest immediate impact.

Off the bat you'll notice Wright is a big, physical kid. Listed at 6'2, 197, he looks apt to continue to big receiver tradition at LSU. On tape, Wright won't blow you away with speed, though once he gets in the open field he never seems to get caught. He's more sudden than he is fast, but his speed is by no means a liability. I love the way he goes up and gets the football at it's highest point.

Wright is a big, physical target with extremely sticky hands. Unlike many HS receivers, Wright will reach his big paws out there and snatch the ball out of the air, rather than waiting for it to get into his body. He also shows good leaping ability, often going up to get the ball (or knock it down as a DB). Skills such as this are likely why he's climbed his way up the depth chart in such short order.

After the catch, Wright is a physical runner. You will rarely see the first tackler bring him down, which is a rarity for a WR. Further, Wright shows an aggressiveness in both the way he runs and blocks. There's an attitude to the way he plays the game that is plainly evident. When attributes such as this standout on tape, it's no surprise he's in the mix early at WR.

The lone question mark I have concerning Wright is his ability to run routes. Most of his highlights show him either catching simple go routes or short screens. He rarely trails across the middle (though his physical nature gives me no reason to believe he would fear it). There's one particular screen where he makes a good outside fake before cutting back up the field, which indicates to me that he has the sort of stop/start ability to turn himself into a good route runner. However, I'm guessing any of those concerns were put to rest this summer and fall as Wright has put himself in place to earn some playing time as early as today.

High End: LSU has experienced tremendous success in the past with big, physical WRs. Wright fits the mold. The WR depth chart is extremely thin this year, and heading into 2011, Wright may actually have the opportunity to be a starter across from Rueben Randle (assuming Shep remains in his role of jack of all trades). Wright may end up being one of the more productive receivers in LSU history if he emerges with a role this year and steps into a starting position in 2011.

Low End: Considering the abundance of playing time which is there for the taking, it's hard to imagine Wright will be a total flop. Now, perhaps he's a workout/practice warrior? I don't think so, but it's happened before. If Wright is more timid in playing than his highlight tape indicates, I suppose he could struggle to make an impact. But at the very worst Wright looks like a very suitable starter on the outside that will be a blocking asset in the run game.

Realistic: I see Wright nabbing around 10-15 balls this year and maybe a touchdown or two. He doesn't have the unbelievable upside of a guy like Rueben Randle, but he is talented. Wright should figure heavily into the rotation next season with fellow freshman Kadron Boone. I expect by 2012 he will be a starter on the outside and an extremely productive option at WR, similar to a Brandon LaFell with better hands.

Cardinals Sign 7th Round Draft Pick Jim Dray To Four-Year, $1.84 Million Contract

Andrew602 — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 15:41:45 -0000

The Arizona Cardinals signed seventh round draft pick, Jim Dray, to a four-year, $1.84 million contract late Wednesday. The tight end out of Stanford was the first draft pick to sign his contract so far. Dray played for Stanford last season after missing most of the previous year when he tore his hamstring, left knee, popliteus muscle, post anterior capsule, and lateral band all at the same time on a play in 2007.

Dray returned to form last year and was considered one of the best blocking tight ends entering the draft. Ken Whisenhunt values great blocking skills in his tight ends, increasing Dray's chances of earning a spot on the Cardinals 53-man roster.

As of right now, the Cardinals currently have five tight ends signed to the team: Dray, Ben Patrick, Anthony Becht, Stephen Spach, and Demetrius Byrd. We have to assume that the team will only keep three signed, making the tight end battle in camp that much more interesting.

With Dray now signed, Jorrick Calvin, O'Brien Schofield, and John Skelton won't be far from coming to terms with the team in the coming weeks.