SB Nation - Deon Butler

Nate Burleson, Mike Holmgren and John Morgan Walk into an Interview

John Morgan — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 00:01:11 -0000

Mike Holmgren will make a decision before Christmas. His choice is between the Cleveland Browns, who have expressed interest, and the Seattle Seahawks, who are assumed to be interested.

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Nate Burleson suffered a high ankle sprain during Sunday's game against the Houston Texans. Seattle initially signed Burleson to a poison pill contract comparable to Steve Hutchinson's. It was a sandbox moment for Tim Ruskell. A chance to kick down the kid's castle that had kicked down his. Seattle later restructured that contract and included a voidable year in 2010.

There's a lot to like about Burleson. If he recovers like many/most athletes post-ACL replacement, he should improve his agility into next year, and be 99% the player he was before the injury by 2010. That lost agility is conspicuous on returns, and, recently, during an end-around attempt against the Texans. Burleson lacks the ability to run angles and curves at a high speed like DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, Josh Morgan and, once upon a time, Nate Burleson. Burleson should recover some bendy-quicks, but not enough to be re-signed.

What he'll gain back through recovery will soon thereafter be lost because of age. Burleson turns 29 August of 2010. He's hardly old, be he is old enough to be mismatched with a rebuilding team. He also isn't very good.

Burleson rewards you with flash and kills you with details. He is notorious for quitting routes, deeking blocks and alternating good grabs with maddening drops. Before Greg Knapp, Burleson was an overpriced second receiver poorly fit to Mike Holmgren's system. Burleson appears better fit to Knapp's looser style, but he isn't producing at a much higher level. Despite an increase in targets and a resulting increase in yards, Burleson is still pretty close to a league average receiver.

The short-term impact of the injury is an opening for Deion Branch and Deon Butler. Branch has been phased out this season. It is difficult to be sure if Branch is worse or just less involved. He said before the season started that his knee would never be the same. As routine as ligament replacement is in the modern NFL, some players still do not respond well to the procedure, and it's possible Branch left something on the operating table.

Butler is more interesting, both because he is younger and faster, and because he is free of the controversial origin story. He also might not be much of a prospect. He's built like DeSean Jackson but plays like Darrell Jackson, and though he is quick into and out of his short cuts, it's difficult to see Butler making a career snatching passes in traffic; taking tackles like Bobby Engram.

The other news of the day involves retired head coach Mike Holmgren. Cleveland is hosting Holmgren and attempting to entice him into taking on a head of football operations position. It's a good fit for Holmgren. The team has a young, talented offensive line, a headcase quarterback with SnapOn tools, some young defensive talent and a lot of cap space and draft picks to invest towards a rebuild. Despite inferior leadership, the Browns are closer to contention than Seattle, and farther along in their rebuild. Brady Quinn is a presumptive bust, but a young 25. Hasselbeck did not make a regular season start until he was 26. Brett Favre was having his first great season as a pro at 25. He commemorated his age-24 season with a league worst 24 picks. The idea of a quarterback guru might be farcical, but Browns owner Randy Lerner didn't earn his fortune with smart business decisions. He inherited it from his father.

Holmgren has announced he wants to decide his destination before Christmas. That puts pressure on the Seahawks organization, or is intended to. It's entirely possible Seattle has no interest in Holmgren. I do not think that Holmgren was or will be a terrible GM, but that's a pretty low standard for expectations. I still hold out hope that the Seahawks can hire the NFL's first Billy Beane-like executive. There are numerous angles a smart strategist could exploit in the NFL. A savvy, young, creative and ambitious general manager could free Seattle from the orthodox approach of systems and windows and trend-following, and build the Seahawks into next decade's Red Sox.

Shoot, I'll volunteer myself and promise a return to the playoffs by 2011. I've made a lifetime out of irreverence. I'm sure it reads as ludicrous boasting by an armchair GM, but I am equally sure an outsider not indoctrinated in the league's procedures anfd methods could hand some of these good old boys their ass. And though it won't be me, I do hope it is somebody, somebody that's not Bill Polian's, by way of Rich McKay, by way of Ozzie Newsome, regional scout and Director of Doing Things the Same Way They've Always Been Done.

Seahawks Humiliated on the Road; Deliver Signature Loss of the 2009 Season

John Morgan — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 21:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I am pretty sure George Walker Bush busted coverage on a few plays. Fire him. Fire EVERYBODY!

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If ever a time for finger pointing and easy answers existed, it is now. I could attack the character, play and talent of about any Seahawk and score. We don't know exactly how Seattle failed, but we all certainly saw someone in blue fail and that, that guy, is the problem. Panic loves a demagogue and I've the rich pipes to shout orders at the assembling mob. To Renton!

The coaches! We can be sure they're dumb.

The line! Sucked like an Oreck.

Matt Hasselbeck! Boy that guy's done!

The Seattle Seahawks were 4-12 last season. They are now 5-8. They should win against Tampa, and since we're talking "shoulds", they should finish the season 6-10. That is a reasonable step forward for the 2008 Seattle Seahawks. The 2008 Seattle Seahawks were one of the five worst teams in football. The 2009 Seattle Seahawks are one of the ten worst teams in football. And when a bad team, with a suspect line, conservative playbook and aged quarterback gets behind early on the road, it has no answer. It is not one player's fault, but a complete team failure.

That Julius Jones! What a jobber.

And Housh! An overpaid primadonna!

I hope that is sufficient aperitif for everyone's hunger for blame.

Here are some sure to be unpopular observations.

Josh Wilson ran down the field and tipped away a deep pass. That was an exciting display of man cover for the kid and a small, small-small step towards realizing his potential. Wilson might settle at nickel and he is already a fine situational defensive back, but there's room for Pistol to develop into a Antoine Winfield type corner.

Deon Butler can own the short pattern. He's smooth into and out of his cuts and the rare receiver capable of quick acceleration and long-stride speed. Butler must be embraced as a receiver rather than a forty time. From the time he was drafted, Seattle has mismanaged his talent: Wasting time and development, not to mention risking injury, auditioning him as a returner; Sending him streaking up the sideline without a quarterback that could target him; seeing him as a deep receiver because of one attribute and missing his true profile as an underneath burner.

The defense kept its pride even after being handed its ass. Seattle forced two big turnovers that quickly dissolved into nothing, but were clean, meaningful turnovers. Seahawks fans are done thinking this is an elite unit, and with ample reason, but it is young, it is mostly cheap and it is worth picking apart and finding value within. Whether Seattle needs a complete rebuild or not is mootable. I see young talent growing within an otherwise crumbling team.

The team is crumbling. Today a pillar broke off and landed on the Seahawks coaching staff. I like Gus Bradley, Greg Knapp and Dan Quinn. I think all three have a future in this league, but probably not together. I can't see Jim Mora escaping such an embarrassing loss. It was always unlikely Mora would stay. New general managers want their guy. I will not look back at Mora and feel contempt, but he has not earned much respect in his short time here. Fiery is fine. I see desperation. The look of a man that thinks he can yell his way out of failure.

This loss hurt through the first half and settled in the second. Now I don't feel it all. A better team, at home, that matches strength against many of Seattle's weaknesses, playing from well ahead from the first quarter on...

And it won't matter a damn in a month. The Seahawks live beyond the players, coaches and fans. Suck as today sucks, and this sucks, Seattle will rise again. And someday, that good coverage down field by Wilson, the rollicking tiny power presence of Justin Forsett, that force of nature hitting by Aaron Curry, will matter again. Just not today. Or soon. Or even next year, probably.

Game ball: Brandon Mebane was stuck behind Chuck Darby not too long ago. Back then, I was sure to point out Darby's missteps and Mebane's potential. He finally got his shot when Darby was lost to injury and has been nothing but special ever since. He is, accounting for position, Seattle's best pass rusher. He is clearly Seattle's best run stuffer.

Mebane is the rare defensive lineman that bunches double teams and brutalizes them if the quarterback double-clutches. He sticks-out when he's in and even more when he's out. A dozen players on the current roster would be lucky to make the next winning team, but make one Brandon Mebane. Kid was playing for a good team, he would be bashing backs and sacking quarterbacks towards his second Pro Bowl.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 3

John Morgan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:59:19 -0000

More photos » by Alex Brandon - AP

In which Seattle signs Jason Campbell to outperform Matt Hasselbeck and maybe he does.

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I hope Mike Holmgren signs with Cleveland. I have selfish interest, namely Seattle not re-signing Holmgren, but I have more noble interests as well. Cleveland has one of the youngest, most talented offensive lines in the NFL. It starts Joe Thomas at left tackle, Eric Steinbach at left guard and Alex Mack at center. Right guard Hank Fraley and right tackle John St. Clair are interchangeable organizational soldier types. It doesn't have great skill position talent, but that's where Holmgren shines. He finds scheme appropriate players that can excel behind a dominant offensive line. Holmgren is also an expert at developing young quarterbacks.

Why start with a tangent? In this scenario, Seattle ditches Matt Hasselbeck and signs free agent Jason Campbell. Tim Ruskell is out and his departure hints at a potential rebuild, but if Seattle can win some down the stretch, and especially if Seattle can win some down the stretch because of its Ruskell built defense, the Seahawks might adapt certain Ruskell ideals even without Ruskell.

Ruskell was risk adverse. He had a narrow definition of "his guy". His aversion to risk may have served him well, but his narrow definition did not. Consider Deon Butler. Ruskell traded into the third round to select Butler because Butler was "his guy". Butler dripped Ruskell: Four-year starter at a major conference powerhouse, undersized but fast, coachable, hard working and quietly productive. Ruskell conflated "his guy" with risk aversion and overpaid for a risky player. Despite his track record and accolades, Butler could bust because he is overmatched by NFL competition.

Ruskell spent big to get his guy, but his guy was never less risky than Juaquin Iglesias, Mike Thomas, Brian Hartline, Louis Murphy, Austin Collie or Johnny Knox - the six receivers selected after Butler. And only Iglesias has underperformed Butler. Ruskell projected his internal bias on the players he drafted. It rarely conflicted with his risk aversion, but when it did, it often spelled failure.

Campbell is a prime target for any risk adverse general manager. His connections to Auburn's unbeaten season might have spoken to Ruskell's personal bias, but his standing as a young, established NFL quarterback speaks to rational roster construction. Campbell has the tools of an NFL quarterback - arm strength, size, mobility - and those tools are NFL tested. He has adapted to multiple playbooks and played near league average football on some very poorly constructed offenses. As we've seen in Chicago and Denver, the quarterback may be the center and most essential part of any NFL offense, but it is not more important than the other ten men that take the field.

This Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Seattle trades or cuts Hasselbeck. It wishes him well, gives lip service to rebuilding and is satisfied to see him sign with Cleveland. Hasselbeck joins muscle milk buddy Brady Quinn and assumes the Trent Dilfer role.

Walter Jones retires.

Seattle cuts Patrick Kerney, Deion Branch and Seneca Wallace.

That gives the Seahawks money to burn. Seattle signs Campbell to a frontloaded contract with a third-year buyout clause. Campbell is playing through the last year of his rookie contract and though he's rich, he's not quarterback rich. Seattle buys maneuverability and Campbell's services by stacking his 2010 salary with zeroes.

Seattle could still be a player in free agency after signing Campbell. It will attempt to fill holes and free itself to draft best available talent throughout the draft.

Signing Campbell and cutting dead weight frees Seattle to make a big splash in the NFL draft. It has money to afford another early first round prospect and the picks to trade up. It could take a centerpiece player on defense like Ndamukong Suh. By releasing Hasselbeck and signing Campbell, the burden falls off the offense. Seattle buys itself time. If Campbell struggles in Seattle's still wrecked 2010 offense, he's young and can be released. Campbell has a bad reputation. He hasn't earned Seahawks fan loyalty and we are unlikely to experience the same kind of revulsion and outrage watching him battered to bones as we do watching Hasselbeck torn asunder.

Campbell is signed as a stopgap+. The Seahawks compliment the signing with a project quarterback selected sometime in 2010's epic quarterback draft. A looming correction to the onerous rookie pay scale is encouraging players to declare, and while the draft lacks a Matt Ryan or Peyton Manning, it might be the deepest quarterback draft in modern history. Colt McCoy, Zac Robinson, Sean Canfield, Ryan Mallett, Dan LeFevour, Pat Devlin and Tony Pike will all likely fall deep into the second day. Seattle will have an established starter for 2010 to test its system and offense, and a talented young quarterback developing behind the scenes.

How it works: Seattle successfully moves into the top of the draft and selects a once in a generation defensive talent. That helps push Seattle's cheap, young and talented, but by no means dominant, defense from potential to production. The team is not a contender again in 2010, but it's close.

Campbell outperforms Hasselbeck. He's younger and healthier and continues to play like a league average quarterback. Campbell could also breakout. Seattle is set for either possibility. It builds its offense towards the future by continuing Ruskell's habit of drafting late and mid-round offensive talent and seeing who shakes out. The major rebuild will wait until next offseason. 2010 is about seeing what they have and what they need, something a diminished Hasselbeck has made difficult to impossible this season.

The young defense provides excitement and gives the team a direction and identity. Campbell's arm opens the run game and Seattle executes the grind and smother attack Jim Mora and Greg Knapp seek. The team takes a flier on another young back (or two) and someone sticks, filling out a balanced and productive if unspectacular committee of backs. It's Ground Chuck all over again.

How it fails: Seattle cuts Hasselbeck but doesn't sign Campbell, or Seattle retains Hasselbeck and projects to have one of the worst offenses in football in 2010, or Seattle signs Campbell but Campbell performs no better than Hasselbeck and Seattle's young quarterback is prematurely forced into action. The meat of this is that Seattle does not spend enough on its offense and that offense again undermines the defense.

Contrarily, the defense never steps up. It continues to stifle the run but still cannot stop the pass. Seattle's defensive savior is a rookie and like Aaron Curry, more potential than player. The defense is average, but no better and as the offense putters towards the bottom of the league, the not-good-enough defense shoulders the consequences. Seattle changes the face of its failures but not its failures and what little can be salvaged from Ruskell's roster is older, more expensive and closer to free agency. Campbell is signed to stave off a full rebuild and does. He plays two seasons of league average football and is cleared when Seattle must clean house in 2012.

Anatomy of a Game Changing Fumble Recovery

John Morgan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 02:00:07 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

A routine play punctuated by hustle made this amazing pass possible.

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I hit on the staggering consequences a dropped route and blown block can cause when Nate Burleson indirectly assisted a forced fumble by the Dallas Cowboys. Seattle hustled its way into a fumble and fumble recovery in a similar fashion this last Sunday. Fumble recovery is not luck, strictly speaking; it's just unpredictable. Luck implies a lack of skill, whereas fumble recovery is a skill, just one that is exceedingly hard to measure.

The play didn't look too exciting at the onset. Seattle broke in a nickel package against the 49ers two-tight end, power formation. David Hawthorne knifed into the backfield but lost Frank Gore when Gore followed his lead blocker left. Jordan Babineaux followed but overpursued. Bad things were about to happen. Seattle was in nickel against a run, and two of its three run stuffers, the linebacker and strong safety, were behind and out of the play. Bad things were about to happen for the 49ers.

Darryl Tapp anchored against tight end Delanie Walker and forced Gore to cut back inside. Tapp slowed Gore and ankle tackled him into and onto prostrate non-entity Craig Terrill. Terrill, through no achievement of his own, played an essential part in the play. His was the body that kept Gore from being down.

Here's where hustle gets its due: Wilson started the play just outside the tackle box and in position to be blocked by a pulling lineman. And so he was. Right tackle Adam Snyder pulled out and put a body on Pistol, but Pistol didn't quit. He went high on Snyder and yanked him aside by the shoulder pads. Back in the scrum, Babineaux recovered and punched out the fumble. Gore was attempting to wrestle his ankle free and somewhat atop Terrill. The ball bounced forward and toward no team in particular before a streaking Wilson looped into the action and recovered for 43 yards.

It was the single most important play of the game, worth 30% of win probability, worth more than Matt Hasselbeck's late strike to Deon Butler, and more than the field goal that won it. It ended a menacing looking drive by San Francisco that had advanced into Seahawks territory and flipped field position. Seattle took the lead on the ensuing drive. It wasn't the better team all game, it isn't the better team on paper, but it mustered all the character Tim Ruskell saw in it and granted him his parting wish: Win.

Matt Hasselbeck Slings to Deon Butler for 32 and Game Winning Field Goal Range

John Morgan — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 01:15:19 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Matt Hasselbeck's pass to Deion Branch bent like a curveball and sought like a missile.

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Matt Hasselbeck gets the game ball.

The NFL Draft is designed to assist weaker teams and create parity. Bad teams get better players and become better teams. The very worst teams can pick any player to help rebuild their franchise around. That intent has been disputed by research conducted by Massey and Thaler. Common wisdom is that rookies are overpaid and the strict salary structure punishes bad teams by awarding them potentially crippling investments.

Two things are true: High salaries in the top ten punish bad teams by increasing how much is risked. The best players are usually drafted early.

The San Francisco 49ers started eight picks selected in the top fifty: Alex Smith (1), Vernon Davis (6), Michael Crabtree (10), Patrick Willis (11), Manny Lawson (22), Joe Staley (28), David Bass (33) and Chilo Rachal (38). It took a lot of ass football to assemble that cast. If not for the 90s Niners spilling into the early 2000s, San Francisco would have a dog in the race for worst team of the new millennium.

Smith looked like a competent if unsexy quarterback. Dilfer with a better arm. He's 25.

Davis ran a 4.38 forty. Match him against Aaron Curry on a crossing route and Curry is probably going to get burned.

Crabtree is athletic and explosive and-Oh shit! Lawyer Milloy!

I won't continue fawning. My point is that Seattle beat a better team than itself today. It beat a younger team with far greater resources invested in that youth. It beat that team because the 49ers are better than Seattle, but not significantly.

Josh Wilson was the best all around cornerback playing today. He is a fiend against the wide receiver screen, aware and responsive to his surroundings like a Shaolin Monk. Wilson isn't a stride-for-stride, Asomugha-like shutdown corner. He's a zone corner, but a hell of a zone corner, and drafted to play in a zone scheme. He was supposed to be Ronde. He's supposed to bury the screen, intercept the bounce, jump the route and find the fumble and fly.

Brandon Mebane is an incredible machine. He's a backloaded piston; a battering ram shaped like candy corn. The day Mebane synced to NFL snap counts he became a great young defensive tackle. Mebane is quick, powerful and hard to block. Seattle doesn't need Suh to showcase Mebane, just someone better than Rocky Bernard, Colin Cole, Craig Terrill and the whole sick crew. Like, motile matter -- ambulatory would be an upgrade.

Jordan Babineaux is a young, cheap and functional free safety.

Tim Ruskell never did rebuild but he added some talent while the core rotted. Seattle's next GM inherits a heck of a fine position. I hope he realizes it.

. . .

Two years ago I faced the Shaun Alexander dilemma. Alexander was no longer a good running back. On his best days rushing, he was still a liability as a receiver and pass blocker. But he was beloved even by we who hated watching him. I never feared a miraculous recovery disproving all my theories. I cringed because others saw a miraculous recovery every time he rushed for five.

Hasselbeck isn't there. Quarterbacks do not fall like running backs fall. Losing a little arm strength is not like losing the first gear that got you the job. Hasselbeck can toss a nice pass when he needs. The bender over the defender to Deion Branch was indefensible pass at its best. He threw another high-arcing bomb to Branch that Branch lost behind the defender. It was pretty for a second. Real pretty.

Unlike seeing Shaun sprinting for fourteen, I never cringed seeing Hasselbeck spark to life. It was thrilling. Hasselbeck was never a great quarterback. Well, screw that. Matt Hasselbeck is one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play American football. Any quarterback that's made a Pro Bowl can claim that. Hasselbeck is not Manning or within the discussion. He's not Fouts or Unitas or Tarkenton or Marino or-

But HE's THE BEST GODDAMN QUARTERBACK WE'VE EVER HAD!!

Game ball guy. I hope you find a team to make your last few millions in the league with. And I hope that team is not the Seattle Seahawks.

Mike Holmgren's Greatest Managerial Achievement

John Morgan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:45:48 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Even in red, a Seahawk.

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Mike Holmgren selected Steve Hutchinson 17^th overall in the 2001 NFL Draft, seven picks after selecting Koren Robinson and 23 picks before he selected Ken Lucas. If Robinson could have kept off the bottle, that would have been a hell of a start to a draft. He swapped first round picks with Green Bay for Matt Hasselbeck, drafted Heath Evans, Alex Bannister, and John David Booty's older brother, Josh.

Holmgren built the 2005 offense that weekend. He won the draft. In a draft that produced someday Hall of Fame candidates: Richard Seymour, Drew Brees, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steve Hutchinson, Casey Hampton, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne and Adrian Wilson, Holmgren won. The Panthers picked Dan Morgan, Kris Jenkins and Steve Smith with their first, second and third round selections, but still Holmgren's was better. He built the unit that would lead Seattle to its first and only Super Bowl.

Well, not quite.

The Bears cut Bobby Engram August 29 and Holmgren signed him August 31. Engram signed a two-year contract that paid him less than $500,000 annually. He was the 101^st highest paid receiver in 2001.

Engram received a 60k raise his second season and took on punt return duties to compensate. He averaged 10.7 yards per return and returned one to the house. That was the season Engram became the darling of Football Outsiders metrics. Targets to Engram ranked 26^th in total value and 13^th in value per target. He was ninth and second in 2003.

Holmgren struggled to fill out a roster and his teams were notoriously thin and talent poor defensively, but man did that man know early 21^st-century offense. He squeezed maximum value from slot receivers. Engram wasn't some schlub. He won the first ever Biletnikof trophy in 1994 and still holds most of Penn State's receiving records. Unlike Deon Butler, Engram wasn't a steady four-year starter with time to burn. Joe Paterno suspended him for the entire 1992 season after he was caught burglarizing an apartment and stealing a stereo with teammate Ricky Sayles. All charges were dropped against Engram after police determined Sayles convinced Engram the two were allowed to take the stereo.

The 1996 draft class included Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds, Terrell Owens, Muhsin Muhammad, Amani Toomer and Joe Horn. Engram was the eighth wide receiver selected, behind Johnson, Glenn, Kennison, Harrison, Moulds, Alex Van Dyke, Bryan Still and Muhammad. Engram never broke through with the Bears, struggling to receive for 38 year old Dave Krieg, Eric Kramer, Rick Mirer, Steve Stentstrom, Cade "AIDS" McNown and Shane Matthews, but he was good. Engram ended his career with Chicago with consecutive seasons of over 900 yards receiving before an ACL tear ended his 2000 season.

Holmgren didn't cash in a high pick or find a serviceable safety in the second, the kind of feats any GM can stumble into, he did that thing that separates the best general managers from the merely competent: found freely available talent and turned it into a long term asset.

Engram is a free agent after Kansas City cut him earlier this season. His time with the Chiefs was a tornado-obliterated double wide in a Rolls Royce career. Or maybe an efficient Elise is more Bobby's style. His short stop in the nation's dust mite might and probably will end Engram's fourteen-year career.

But maybe week 17, should the Tennessee Titans be out of it, Seattle can IR Patrick Kerney and sign Engram for one last perfectly-timed, Hasselbeck-to-Engram curl route for eight and the first.

The Future of Matt Hasselbeck is the Future of the Seattle Seahawks, Pt. 2

John Morgan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:26:51 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

John Carlson, Justin Forsett, Deon Butler and Max Unger form the existing core of offensive talent that Seattle can build around. Chris Spencer, Rob Sims and Sean Locklear could be retained too. If Seattle begins its move towards the offense of the future, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player will join this core in 2010.

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There is no third-year wide receiver rule and no single path a quarterback takes to competence. The Seattle Seahawks could employ any strategy this offseason and still not start a competent quarterback in 2010, 2011 and 2012. If it sticks with Matt Hasselbeck, it will commit itself to Hasselbeck's decline phase, starting him in his age 35, 36 and 37 year-old seasons. For perspective, a quarterback performs at 83.2% of total capacity at 34, but historically, that capacity drops to 76.8, 69.9 and 62.9% from 35 to 37. The Seahawks could attempt to offset that decline through building a better team.

Whoever drafts Hasselbeck's replacement, whoever that replacement is, and however that replacement is integrated into the offense, the Seahawks will most likely decline as a passing offense in 2010. Old quarterbacks lose ability in chunks. Young quarterbacks gain ability in leaps. The two cross paths sometime around an old quarterback's age 36 season and a young quarterback's age 24 season.

Hasselbeck will turn 35 next season. Seattle can retain him through the end of his contract while simultaneously adding the quarterback of the future. Hasselbeck would be the presumed starter and presumably better than his young replacement, help transition Seattle towards its future, and potentially resurrect his own career, should he desire.

That's why I dub this the "Graceful Exit Plan." Seattle could draft a quarterback in the top ten, but is less likely to with Hasselbeck under contract and costing $10 million against the cap. In the last ten drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten five times. In the last twenty drafts, two quarterbacks have been selected in the top ten ten times. It's difficult to project a draft so early in the process, but it is likely Jimmy Clausen will join Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Dan LeFevour and Sean Canfield atop this year's quarterback class.

Clausen is the most likely top-ten pick. The impact of keeping Hasselbeck is that Seattle is unlikely to select a quarterback within the top ten, and therefore we will assume Clausen is unlikely, Bradford could likewise be unlikely, but the remaining five will be available. The remaining five represent the most likely pool of replacements for Hasselbeck.

Canfield's age is not publically listed, Rotoworld lists him at 108, but he is a senior now and graduated from high school early to attend spring drills. It's most likely that Canfield is 22, and like most of the rest of his class, will be a 23 to 24 year-old rookie.

It's ridiculous to discuss a quarterback prospect's upside. Every legitimate prospect is capable of making Canton or selling Cadillacs in five years. Likewise, the age guidelines presented by Pro Football Reference evidence that quarterback development is initially about experience. The greatest single delta is between age 21 and age 22, when a quarterback jumps 22.2%, and the second greatest is between 22 and 23, when a quarterback jumps 18.5%. Most 22 year old quarterbacks are rookies. All 21 year old quarterbacks rookies. After the sophomore sprint growth is more gradual.

The Plan Might Be Enacted Thus:

Hasselbeck is a lame duck. The media loves to pick on such situations and tease out whatever controversy possible. The ownership, management and Hasselbeck must agree to bury the subject and unite behind a common plan. That starts the day after the draft, when the team provides a unified front: Hasselbeck is the starter, but his drafted replacement, the future.

If Greg Knapp is still Seattle's offensive coordinator, Seattle's pick will most reflect his personal preferences in a quarterback. Tim Ruskell has deferred to his coaching staff, sometimes smartly, and sometimes, like when re-signing Shaun Alexander, stupidly. It will reflect Knapp's system and Ruskell's eye for talent. Let's quickly vet potential candidates.

Knapp Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

LeFevour

Canfield

Ruskell Approved:

McCoy

Tebow

Tebow could fall off Knapp's list and Canfield appear on Ruskell's. The most likely candidate is McCoy. He fits Knapp's system and passes Ruskell's standards. Tebow is the second most likely candidate and then maybe Canfield. I'll run with Tebow and McCoy, because the two are similar types and would be built around in a similar fashion.

We'll assume Seattle's spends its first overall pick on McBow. Seattle would not likely spend additional early picks on the offensive line. Knapp would protect the quarterback by moving the pocket, establishing the run and extending the short passing attack. It would want a top receiver to pair with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, replace or eventually replace Nate Burleson (2010 is voidable), grow with McBow and one day power the McSeaBow's offense. Or, should that talent be unavailable, an elite running back prospect to lead Seattle's developing committee of backs.

Knapp likes speed and Ruskell likes polish. The two might settle on Brandon LaFell. Many players are faster than Lafell, but few are more polished. Lafell does not satisfy Knapp's desire for speed, but he can be a deep threat. He's a big player, known for his blocking ability, that passes Ruskell's standards and can fit within Knapp's system.

If Seattle retains or re-signs Burleson, or postpones its need at wide receiver, it could address its defense or add a running back. The one thing it will not likely do is invest heavily into its offensive line. Another GM might.

Seattle will face a difficult free agency before it reaches the draft. Retaining Hasselbeck means a major chunk of its salary cap is invested into a player very unlikely to contribute to its future. It could cut Patrick Kerney and Walter Jones, either, but it would be hard pressed to retain all three. It must cut someone or be dragged down by sunk cost.

That period will determine who Seattle targets in the draft, but skill position and defense should populate their prime targets.

How it Works: Seattle's coaching staff and executives buy themselves a stay of execution. Emphasis is on the future and Seattle's existing offense is culled for talent. One of Chris Spencer and Rob Sims will join Deon Butler, Max Unger, Justin Forsett, John Carlson, McBow and Sparkly New Skill Position Player to form Seattle's offensive core going forward.

McBow starts for most of the preseason and subs if Hasselbeck is injured or grossly ineffective. Hasselbeck endures his victory lap with statesman-like aplomb and tutors his young understudy, to whatever undetermined effect. Seattle is not a true contender in 2010, but it could contend for the NFC West. The defense gels and Seattle's young offense shows flashes.

How it Fails: If Seattle cannot sooth Hasselbeck but feels compelled to retain him, it will struggle to keep the media hounds at bay. Management accepts 2010 as a season spent towards its future, but the media exploits the fanbase's impatience, growing dissatisfaction and entitlement, and not so subtly splits the franchise between Hasselbeck and management; The past and the future; winning and the losing it takes to win again.

McBow struggles in the preseason and is stuck behind Mike Teel or Seneca Wallace on Seattle's depth chart. The offense, built to be cheap and good, versus expensive and dominating, like the Seahawks of yore, is cheap and bad. The defense does not pick up the slack. The Seahawks spiral towards their third straight losing season, a little older, and further wedged between a full rebuild and mediocrity.

Seattle Seahawks Grind Out 27-17 Victory over St. Louis Rams

John Morgan — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 21:44:25 -0000

More photos » by L.G. Patterson - AP

The future is streaking at the Seahawks like Pistol returning it for six.

Browse more photos »

The Seattle Seahawks won on the road against the Kyle Boller-led St. Louis Rams. The offense was one-dimensional, the defense hardly dominant, but Seattle slowly, convincingly overwhelmed St. Louis and squeezed out its fourth win of the season. That matches last year's total.

The young players are learning. Jordan Babineaux and Aaron Curry trade exciting plays with blown assignments. Brandon Mebane can knife into the pocket, but most pro quarterbacks have the agility to evade him after the initial pressure. Seattle's ends, excluding Patrick Kerney, are talented, young and cheap, but do not create sufficient pressure on their own. The defense lacks an elite pass rusher and should add one through the draft.

The path to contention is long. It will take maturation from its defensive core and, for the first time in Tim Ruskell's career, a new offense. The time is now to stop rebuilding, stop swapping in used parts and patching holes with low-upside polish, and start building an offense from scratch.

Justin Forsett is a lock. Force has proven that Seattle's offensive line is not hopeless, and that he is a part of the offense Seattle wants to become. It's a running offense. It rotates backs, and builds drives off a slicing run attack. Julius Jones is not the problem, but he's not good enough either. Seattle needs talent at its skill positions. Not just running back, but Seattle needs to become younger and faster at wide receiver too.

A reporter asked Jim Mora when Deon Butler would play. Mora said that Butler will play when he's the best player. Butler has six receptions for 56 yards. Third round wide receivers rarely explode on the NFL. They can contribute.

It's a pick like Butler that makes me worry about Ruskell's ability to judge offensive talent. Seattle moved up into the third to draft Butler. But Ruskell has earned the right to start the process. Seattle will be worse before it is better.

Matt Hasselbeck is a game manager. He doesn't lose games like Matthew Stafford or Kyle Boller. Seattle can pick, sack and run its way to a victory against the Rams, but it needs downfield passing to be a contender again. That means a rookie quarterback, and a rookie quarterback means soon the Seahawks will be the team throwing wins away.

Game Ball: Force.

Forsett is a slashing power-back in a too small frame. Seattle will not pound the rock behind Forsett, but it can build a rushing attack around him. The coaches will want to keep Forsett under twenty carries and around twenty total touches. That means finding Forsett a partner. Jones is not a bum. He put up a similar stats against the Rams in week one. Hopefully Seattle learns from Forsett's success and does not blindly feed Forsett the ball. Bring in backs. Audition them for the future. Seattle needs help at running back, and Louis Rankin is not the answer, but Forsett alone is not the answer either.

Seattle Seahawks Wither; Fall 31 - 20 to the Arizona Cardinals

John Morgan — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 01:25:25 -0000

by Matt York - AP

Greg Knapp achieved offense with surprise.

View full size photo »

This was an heroic effort and exciting football. Arizona is pretty good this year. Standing at 6-3, the Cardinals should surpass ten wins. Seattle tore out to an early lead, but the defense crumbled against a sustained Arizona attack. Seattle was beat because it was the inferior football team. The Cards had thirteen meaningful drives and averaged 35.8 yards a drive.

There's a lot of game balls to give out, but first let's discuss some of Seattle's weaknesses. Sean Locklear looked a bit gimpy between snaps, so perhaps he is not fully healed. However Locklear is chipping away at his chance to stick at left tackle. Seattle faces an interesting dilemma with Lock. He could be a great right tackle in Greg Knapp's system, but even without the left tackle incentives, he is expensive for a right tackle. Seattle owns a fabulously cheap offensive line, so perhaps it could afford to pay Locklear well at right tackle.

Matt Hasselbeck had a hard game. Heroic is a great way to describe his play. A hero is someone that gets other people killed. Joss Whedon did not envision Hasselbeck's high pass to Deon Butler, but I did upon quoting him. There are many things Hasselbeck still does well. To build a good to elite offense around him, something Seattle would need to do to have a realistic chance at winning the Super Bowl, would require a massive investment. A more massive investment. Seattle has already sunk much of its cap into Beck, Walter Jones, Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. The Objectivist is wonderfully free of Kyle Orton moments. Because Matt Hasselbeck can consistently make the right read and throw with accuracy, he can make an offense out of check downs. But it's a shit offense. And the second his reads are wrong or his accuracy flutters, it completely breaks down.

Seattle had very little chance to recover when it lost the lead. It does not have what Arizona has: A repeatable ability to gain big chunks of yards in one play. But it shouldn't have lost the lead. Seattle did exactly what it needed to: punch the Cardinals in the mouth early and force Warner to consistently face thick zones. The defense did not crumble because any one player played poorly, but because now it does not have a single great pass rusher. The defense Seattle wants to run needs someone to make Brandon Mebane's almost-snaply pistoning into the backfield and crushing the front of the pocket matter. It needs someone to keep the tight end away from Darryl Tapp. It needs a better edge rusher than Aaron Curry. It lacks that and it failed to sack Warner once.

Game Balls:

Justin Forsett: Kid showed up and declared his an NFL player. Force showed quick feet in his cuts, power in the hole and the less recognized ability to run under tackles and through smaller holes. I don't believe in a feature back. So I am not calling for Forsett to get the majority of the carries, but he is no longer a specialty back. Force is a first and ten, I-formation back.

ME!BANE!: Said. Done. Master of the midway.

Darryl Tapp: Tapp is hybrid end-linebacker. His ability against the run is that of a linebacker, but he's a pure edge-rushing defensive end. Keep this guy and enjoy how he ages.

Josh Wilson: Who would think Wilson would look like the best cover corner Seattle had today? Pistol isn't too good at that, actually, but small samples may contain outliers. He needs to be facing the quarterback to be his best and the game plan to man up the Cardinals defenders and hope they can buy the pass rush time stopped working in the second. Wilson recovered well, showed some man ability and kept overall his guy close, boosting his campaign for starting right corner. He wasn't great, but he was good at something he doesn't do and against the league's best wide receiver corps.

Greg Knapp: It took some balls to swallow your assumptions and let Forsett run real runs. He also called a very nice game. Early, Seattle attacked with a suddenly successful rush game, and punctuated their Two-Headed Freak with a mid-range aerial assault. He saved the screens for desperation time in the fourth. It's hard planning around an injury wracked quarterback with fading arm strength that plays behind a piecemeal line, but Knapp squeezes production out of this offense with a mix of good timing and good play calling.

That's it folks. Seattle is no longer in the hunt to win the division. If it keeps up this intensity, it will enter the Wild Card chase, but only in a fanboy sense. Field Gulls is switching gears again. Like last year, the tape review will now focus on players key to Seattle's future. This week: Sean Locklear at left tackle and Brandon Mebane at the three.

The 2010 Draft - Where We Stand in Chart Form

Jeremy Bolander — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 22:37:57 -0000

[Editor's Note: This is a draft order chart based completely off of the current standings. Tiebreak rules were used to establish order of playoff teams, and then playoff "wins" were awarded to the team with the best record, or whomever came out ahead in tiebreaks. For those who are wondering, Denver topped Indy in the #4 tiebreak scenario, "strength of victory" (.504 to .305). Obviously, this chart will change drastically from week to week, and I will update it as time permits to keep us abreast of developments.]

#	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	TEN	STL	TB	¹⁰TEN	STL	TB	TEN
2	TB	⁷NE	STL	TB	TEN	STL	TB
3	STL	TB	TEN	STL	¹⁷CLE	TEN	STL
4	KC	CLE	KC	CLE	KC	CLE	²⁶MIA
5	CLE	KC	CLE	KC	CLE	KC	CLE
6	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
7	WAS	OAK	¹⁰~~WAS~~	OAK	WAS	²¹CAR	WAS
8	OAK	WAS	OAK	WAS	OAK	²³MIA	OAK
9	SEA	CAR	MIA	SEA	¹⁸KC	MIA	SEA
10	MIA	SEA	CAR	MIA	SEA	CAR	MIA
11	¹SF	MIA	⁹PHI	CAR	¹⁹KC	SEA	CAR
12	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF	BUF
13	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX	SD	SF	BAL
14	SD	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX	SD	SF
15	JAX	SD	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX	SD
16	²DEN	⁶NE	SD	SF	BAL	CHI	JAX
17	BAL	⁵TB	JAX	SD	SF	BAL	CHI
18	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
19	DAL	PHI	DAL	PHI	^13,11NE	²²BUF	DAL
20	PHI	DAL	PHI	DAL	PHI	DAL	²⁸NE
21	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	¹⁶CLE	NYJ	NYJ
22	ARI	GB	ARI	GB	ARI	GB	ARI
23	GB	ARI	GB	ARI	GB	ARI	²⁵GB
24	NE	NE	⁸OAK	NE	¹⁴TB	NE	²⁷NE
25	ATL	⁴KC	ATL	ATL	ATL	ATL	²⁴STL
26	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG
27	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN
28	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT	CIN	NYG	PIT
29	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN
30	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	²⁰PHI	IND
31	NO	NO	NO	NO	¹⁵PHI	NO	NO
32	³SEA	DEN	DEN	DEN	¹²DET	DEN	DEN

First round

1. Carolina to San Francisco. Carolina traded its 2010 first-round selection for San Francisco's 2009 second-round selection (43rd overall, used to select Everette Brown) and its 2009 fourth-round selection (111th overall, used to select Mike Goodson).

2. Chicago to Denver. Chicago traded its 2010 first-round selection, its 2009 first- and third-round selections, and quarterback Kyle Orton to Denver for quarterback Jay Cutler and a 2009 fifth-round selection.

3. Denver to Seattle. Denver traded its 2010 first-round selection for Seattle's 2009 second-round selection (37th overall, used to select Alphonso Smith).

Second round

4. Atlanta to Kansas City. Atlanta traded its second-round selection to Kansas City for tight end Tony Gonzalez.

5. Chicago to Tampa Bay Chicago traded its second-round selection to Tampa Bay for defensive end Gaines Adams.

6. Jacksonville to New England. Jacksonville traded its 2010 second-round selection and its 2009 seventh-round selection to New England for the first of New England's 2009 third-round selections (73rd overall, used to select Derek Cox).

7. Tennessee to New England. Tennessee traded its 2010 second-round selection to New England for the third of New England's 2009 third-round selections (89th overall, used to select Jared Cook).

Third round

8. New England to Oakland. New England traded its third and a conditional pick to Oakland for defensive end Derrick Burgess.

9. Seattle to Philadelphia. Seattle traded its third-round selection in 2010 and its fifth- and seventh-round selections in 2009 (137th and 213th overall) for Philadelphia's third-round selection in 2009 (91st overall, used to select Deon Butler).

10. Washington (forfeit). Washington will not have a third-round selection in 2010, as it used a third-round pick in the 2009 Supplemental Draft to choose defensive end Jeremy Jarmon.

Fifth round

11. Dallas to Denver. Dallas traded its fifth-round selection to Denver for guard Montrae Holland.

12. Denver to Detroit. Denver traded its 2010 fifth-round selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (#235 overall, used to select Zack Follett) to Detroit for a 2009 sixth-round selection (1st selection in round six, #174 overall, used to select Tom Brandstater).

13. Denver to New England. Denver traded its fifth-round selection to New England for defensive lineman Le Kevin Smith and New England's seventh-round selection, which was later traded back to New England.

14. New England to Tampa Bay. New England traded its fifth-round selection to Tampa Bay for tight end Alex Smith.

15. New Orleans to Philadelphia. New Orleans traded its 2010 fifth-round selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (#222 overall, later traded to Indianapolis) to Philadelphia for a 2009 fifth-round selection (#164 overall, used to select Thomas Morestead).

16. New York Jets to Cleveland. New York traded its fifth round pick, as well as a conditional third-round pick, WR Chansi Stuckey, and LB Jason Trusnik, to Cleveland for WR Braylon Edwards.

17. Tampa Bay to Cleveland. Tampa Bay traded its 2010 fifth-round selection and its 2009 second-round selection to Cleveland for tight end Kellen Winslow II.

18. Carolina to Kansas City. Carolina traded its 2010 fifth-round selection to Kansas City for defensive end Tank Tyler.

19. Miami to Kansas City: Miami traded its 2010 fifth-round selection to Kansas City for quarterback Tyler Thigpen.

Sixth round

20. Indianapolis to Philadelphia. Indianapolis traded its 2010 sixth-round selection to Philadelphia for a 2009 seventh-round selection (#222 overall, used to select Pat McAfee).

21. Oakland to Carolina. Oakland traded its 2010 sixth-round selection and a 2009 seventh-round selection (#216 overall, used to select Captain Munnerlyn) to Carolina for a 2009 sixth-round selection (#202 overall, used to select Brandon Myers).

22. Philadelphia to Buffalo. Philadelphia traded its 2010 sixth-round selection and 2009 first- and fourth-round selections to Buffalo for tackle Jason Peters.

23. Washington to Miami. Washington traded its 2010 sixth-round selection and 2009 second-round selection to Miami for defensive end Jason Taylor.

Seventh round

24. Atlanta to St. Louis: Atlanta traded its 2010 seventh-round selection to the Rams for Tye Hill.

25. Green Bay to New York Jets (returned): Green Bay traded its 2010 seventh-round selection and quarterback Brett Favre to the Jets for the Jets' 2009 third-round selection. The Jets acquired this pick as part of the conditional agreement of the trade in which Favre's performance resulted in the Packers receiving the Jets' 2009 third-round selection, coupled with Favre retiring after the 2008 season. However, this pick has been returned to the Packers.

26. Kansas City to Miami: Kansas City traded its 2010 seventh-round selection to Miami for Miami's 2009 seventh-round selection.

27. New England to Denver (returned): New England traded its 2010 seventh-round selection and Le Kevin Smith to the Broncos for their 2010 fifth-round selection. Denver then traded the selection back to New England for offensive lineman Russ Hochstein.

28. Philadelphia to New England. Philadelphia traded its 2010 seventh-round selection and wide receiver Greg Lewis to New England for New England's 2009 fifth-round selection.

Conditional/Undetermined

29. Carolina to Cleveland: Carolina traded a conditional 2010 selection to Cleveland for DT Louis Leonard.

30. Jacksonville to Tampa Bay: Jacksonville traded an undisclosed 2010 draft choice to Tampa Bay for quarterback Luke McCown.

31. Kansas City to Miami: Kansas City traded an undisclosed 2010 draft choice to Miami for offensive linemen Andy Alleman and Ikechuku Ndukwe.

32. New England to Baltimore: New England traded a conditional 7th round 2010 draft choice to Baltimore for LB Prescott Burgess. Burgess was placed on the Patriots' practice squad, but was claimed by Baltimore after their game against the Patriots, thus nullifying the trade as Burgess did not meet the condition for playing time.

33. New York Jets to Philadelphia: New York traded a 2009 fifth-round selection and a conditional 2010 selection to Philadelphia for CB Lito Sheppard. Depending on Sheppard's playing time in 2009, the selection could be in the second, third, or fourth round.

34. New York Jets to Cleveland. New York traded a conditional third round pick, as well as a fifth round pick, WR Chansi Stuckey, and LB Jason Trusnik, to Cleveland for WR Braylon Edwards. The third-round pick can become a second-round pick based on Edwards' performance with New York.

35. San Diego to Houston: San Diego traded an undisclosed 2010 draft choice to Houston for defensive lineman Travis Johnson.