SB Nation - Richard Quinn

Horse Tracks 12/19/09 - Buckhalter, Hill doubtful for Broncos; Law questionable

Douglas A. Lee — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 16:08:30 -0000

DB - Week 15 - Fri: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DB - Woodyard Showing Support - Gray Caldwell
"The final injury report for this weekend’s game was released on Friday, and the Broncos have six players listed as probable for the matchup: David Bruton (quad), Elvis Dumervil (toe), Spencer Larsen (back), Knowshon Moreno (ankle), Richard Quinn (hamstring) and Tony Scheffler (ribs). Ty Law (hamstring) is listed as questionable for the contest, and Correll Buckhalter (ankle) and Renaldo Hill (ankle) are listed as doubtful."

DB - Redefining Sweet Sixteen - Chris Gentilviso
"Since joining the Broncos in Week 7, Berger has brought a 39.3 net average on 32 kicks. Over the last five games, he has recorded a net average of 40 yards or higher, tying a personal best."

DPP - Short-yardage plays not Broncos' long suit - Jeff Legwold

LTC - Like old times: After a slow start, Marshall is in fine form - Brian Howell

LTC - There are no ‘gimmes’ as Broncos navigate road to playoffs with caution - Brian Howell

DB - A Few Minutes With Knowshon Moreno - Broncos TV

DB - This Week in Gameday: Dec. 20, 2009 - Gray Caldwell

DPP - MVP of Broncos? Hard-hitting "Dawk" - Mark Kiszla

DPP - McFadden seeing bigger role in Raiders' air game - Lindsay Jones

DP - Russell is an afterthought - Jim Armstrong

CSG - Berger has important, unnoticed role as holder - Frank Schwab

CSG - McDaniels not worried about other AFC contenders - Frank Schwab

AP - Buckhalter likely to miss Raiders game

AFC West News

ESPN - Final Word: AFC West - Bill WIlliamson

NFP - Russell’s enormous cost to the Raiders - Andrew Brandt

SFC - Huge Raiders lineman must squeeze into new role - David White

OT - Raiders notebook: Denver Broncos' Champ Bailey not ready to yield 'best cornerback' title to Nnamdi Asomugha or Darrelle Revis - Steve Corkran

OT - Walker will start at LG - Jerry McDonald

OT - Looks like Miller is out - Jerry McDonald

NYT - Tall Receivers Help Chargers Elevate Passing Game - Billy Witz

SDUT - Bolts’ Siler gets first chance to start - Chris Jenkins

SDUT - Cincy cornerbacks are a hit - Kevin Acee & Chris Jenkins

KCS - Haley keeps going for it on fourth down - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notes | Blackout doesn’t bother Haley - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Week 15 injuries

NFL - Friday Injury Reports

NFL - Holmgren will have decision for Browns 'sooner than later'

NFL - Guard Incognito among five players fined for Week 14 misconduct

NFL - Snow moves Bears-Ravens to 4:15 p.m. ET Sunday

FH - Lawrence Phillips Sentenced to 31 Years for Assault

NFL Opinion

ESPN - Sunday Countdown online: Your weekly NFL guide - Week 16

NFL - Steelers must get to Rodgers if they want to get a win - Pat Kirwan

NFP - Player's Picks: Week 15 - Matt Bowen

ESPN - 10 Spot: See ya next week - Adam Schefter

USAT - NFL coaching carousel is starting its spin - Jarrett Bell

CBS - Peek at the Week: Bengals' focus may be shaken in San Diego - Clark Judge

Y! - Brees going all-out for perfection - Jason Cole

Y! - Caldwell and Payton know what's best - Mike Silver

SI - Cowboys at Saints - Adam Duerson

SN - Week 15 NFL Announcing: Dreaming of a White Sunday - Dan Levy

NFL - 2009 season illustrates spending doesn't always mean winning - Jason La Canfora

NFP - Diner morning news: A change for the ‘Skins - Mike Lombardi

NFP - The reasons coaches move - Jack Bechta

FH - Atypical Jones Not Defined by Football - Thomas George

SI - Former NFL star Dave Pear is sorry he ever played football - Jeff Pearlman

NFP - NFP’s 2009 ACC all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

PFW - Youth prevails among DB talent - Nolan Nawrocki

RIP Chris Henry

NFL - True tragedy in Henry's death is we never got to see his full rebirth - Steve Wyche

SI - Bengals march on without Chris Henry; what to watch in Week 15 - Peter King

FOX - Henry's death hits home for lifelong friend - Mark Kriegel

Horse Tracks 12/17/09 - Key Broncos Dumervil, Hill, Buckhalter, Law miss Wednesday practice due to injuries

Douglas A. Lee — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 12:41:02 -0000

DB - Studying Beyond the Standings - Chris Gentilviso
"For the Broncos, five players did not participate in Wednesday's practice: Correll Buckhalter (ankle), Elvis Dumervil (toe), Renaldo Hill (ankle), Ty Law (hamstring) and Brandon Lloyd (not injury related). Knowshon Moreno (ankle) was a limited participant. The four others listed on the report -- David Bruton (quadricep), Spencer Larsen (back), Richard Quinn (hamstring) and Tony Scheffler (ribs) -- were full participants. Five Raiders also did not participate in their Wednesday practice: DE Greg Ellis (knee), QB Bruce Gradkowski (knee), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), WR Nick Miller (shin) and TE Zach Miller (concussion). The two others listed on the report -- S Michael Huff (neck) and C Samson Satele (calf) -- were full participants."

DB - Week 15 - Wed: McDaniels - Broncos TV

DPP - Raiders pick Frye over Russell for start at QB - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Broncos forced to deal with injuries, inexperience at safety - Lindsay Jones

DPP - Briefs: Hobbled backfield may create chance for Hillis to help - Jeff Legwold

NFP - Marshall's big payday is coming - Matt Bowen

DPP - Q&A: Broncos likely to trade down in draft - Jeff Legwold

DB - Week 15 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 15 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

DPP - Time to draft new deals for star duo - Woody Paige

DP - Marshall vs. Asomugha matchup a key for Broncos - Mike Klis

DPP - Analysis: Raiders' issues at QB standard fare in NFL - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Toronto doctor "saved" Simms - Mike Klis

CSG - Seymour incident adds to Broncos-Raiders rivalry - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos have injuries at safety - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos notes: Bruton among candidates to replace Hill if needed - Frank Schwab

KDVR - Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders Preview - Chris Tanaka

INDT - Broncos building for the playoffs - Hunter Ansley

DB - Broncos History From ‘Hoagy’ - Gray Caldwell

DB - Original Bronco Al "Hoagy" Carmichael Visits Dove Valley - Broncos TV

DPP - Former Bronco Bell sounds great again - Jim Armstrong

AFC West News

OT - Charlie Frye, not JaMarcus Russell named Oakland Raiders starting quarterback - Steve Corkran

OT - Is there more to come after JaMarcus Russell's demotion by the Raiders? - Monte Poole

OT - Quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is inclined to re-sign with Oakland Raiders - Steve Corkran

OT - Russell might never get off bench for Raiders or anyone else - Cam Inman

OT - No `breakthrough’ in sight for JaMarcus - Jerry McDonald

PFW - Safety shuffling hampers Bolts' pass 'D' - Michael Blunda

SDUT - Dependable Kaeding quietly holding record - Kevin Acee

SDUT - Ochocinco calls out Merriman - Chris Jenkins

KCS - Chiefs in bad hands with their receivers - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs notebook: Bowe works with first-team offense in return to practice - Kent Babb

NFL News

NFL - Wednesday Injury Reports

NFL - Bengals WR Henry sustains life-threatening injuries in fall from truck

NFL - Mangini says he's not worried by Browns' interest in Holmgren

NYT - For John Madden, at 73, the Game’s Still On - Richard Sandomir

NFL Opinion

NFP - Despite drama, Pats still a playoff team - Matt Bowen

NFP - Warming up the NFL coaching carousel - Robert Boland

NFP - Wednesday whys: Big extensions for Peyton, Brees? - Andrew Brandt

NFL - Colts, Saints becoming pride fighters in perfection pursuit - Steve Wyche

NFL - Defensive prowess has been the real key for Colts and Saints - Bucky Brooks

FH - No Guts, No Glory: 19-0 Is Way to Go - Jay Mariotti

NFP - Diner morning news: Can Holmgren rebuild Browns? - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Tavern talk: Holmgren not on Seattle’s list - Mike Lombardi

ESPN - 'The Big Show' coming to Cleveland? - John Clayton
"The Texans are close, but I thought the four-game losing streak in the division could cost Kubiak his job, particularly with Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher available." If John Clayton thinks Shanny would EVER take a job from which Kubes had been fired, he's even dumber than I've ever thought.

CBS - Coaching diagnoses: Survival chances of eight on edge - Clark Judge

CBS - Young talent may make Jacksonville anonymity thing of past - Pete Prisco

ESPN - Have at It: Will Cutler make it? - Kevin Seifert

Y! - HGH cloud begs for future testing - Charles Robinson

SN - Will Two Undefeated Teams Help NFLN Pressure Time Warner? - Dan Levy

NFP - NFP’s 2009 Big 12 all-prospect team - Wes Bunting

Predictions, Etc.

NYT - Week 15 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: What Is the Effect of Resting Starters? - Brian Burke

NYT - Thursday’s Matchup: Colts at Jaguars - Mike Tanier

SN - Week 15 picks: Electric Chargers will continue surge - Vinnie Iyer

FH - NFL Picks, Week 15: Will Colts Play Soft? - Dave Goldberg

FOX - Week 15 Cheat Sheet - Peter Schrager

SI - NFL Playoff Projections, Scenarios for Week 15 - Dom Bonvissuto

FH - Predicting the Playoffs: A Nearly Drama Free NFC - JJ Cooper

SI - Eagles crack top five - Don Banks

FOX - Handicapping the MVP race - Alex Marvez

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Indy Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:06 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

18 days ago: Denver Broncos tight end Daniel Graham catches a short pass before running for a touchdown during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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There's nothing quite like back-to-back wins to put a shine into the work in the film room. The glow of the past two wins hasn't faded at all, but the upcoming contest against the Indianapolis Colts is starting to loom large. Before we get into our matchups and needs against the next foe, let's take some time to look back over what we've accomplished. Special teams, the nose tackle position and even raiderology are on today's menu. Let the feasting begin!

The Film Room I - KC Autopsy

A moment of silence for a team that has passed away, out of contention for the season and fighting for respect. It's a tough time to be a Chiefs fans, and I want to thank them for a week of intelligent football talk and good-spirited fun. Nice guys, over at Arrowhead Pride. But the nice guy's team, in this case, is finishing near last (if they don't awaken right now. You couldn't miss that on the tape.

I had mentioned that the game this past weekend, like most games, would come down to how Denver played in the trenches. The Broncos responded with a solid performance by the O-Line, prying open gaping holes more than large enough to pass a running back through. When Ryan Harris stepped out in the early second quarter and Tyler Polumbus replaced him, I wondered for a brief moment if we were seeing a very bad thing but there was no dropoff that I saw. Polumbus seems to have stepped up his game, as has Russ Hochstein. Both improvements are timely - and much needed.

Mistakes - Orton had an uncharacteristically bad red-zone play on the first drive, but he moved them well on the next drive. He was blindsided twice and lost the ball, but let's be real - if the defensive player hits the arm right, every QB loses those. Over his career Orton hasn't tended to that issue, so I'm not worried. I want to see those blindside hits stop, though. Orton was 'burping the baby again, an old and bad habit, but the O-Line doesn't get off scot-free, either. They bear some responsibility for the sacks and the one fumble. They really stepped up when they had to though, and that was the name of the game. They let KC get to the one and held them to a FG. INTs, negative plays, pressure and domination go a long way. They took us to an eighth win.

I've wondered about the progress of Richard Quinn of late mostly because I hadn't had the time to break down the ST work as well as I should. That's being fixed, and the guys on Upon Further Review have been kind enough to help me out. As I result, I've been seeing a lot of good things with Quinn and I'm pleased that he singlehandedly made a huge play on the faked punt. KC must have assumed that since others have caught the Broncos with those kind of plays, it would work again. Here's what Josh McDaniels had to say,

They went to a gadget-type formation and I know that there was a guy leaking out the other way and they had an opportunity to get that ball out there but TE Richard (Quinn) made a heck of a play. I don't know what happens if the ball gets thrown but it probably wouldn't have been too good for us. Whenever you break the formation and have a gadget-type play, we were prepared and we split out with them but you are never sure who they are trying to pick for or who they are trying to spring free. That was a big play in the game because we obviously took possession of the football in their territory.

It wasn't the only big play, either. The Broncos were unstoppable in the running game and despite some errors, still used the pass to score 2 TDs, which would have been enough by itself. The game was over when Cassel's QB rating hit 3.1. There isn't a mercy rule. Perhaps there should be. This was a good reminder of that fact.

The Broncos won despite some sloppy play that won't work in the upcoming weeks. In the final analysis, the Broncos committed too many errors and they can't win against the best if they do. But still, you get a sense of how the team can play, and there is a heck of a team in here. You have to balance the bad with the fact that we're seeing a lot of things getting fixed in the new systems the team has learned. When I go back to what I wanted to see from the team this year, that was at the top of the list. Nice work, guys.

Film Room II - The Special Teams

The emphasis on this week's review was the play of the Broncos' special teams this season. Everyone is in agreement that the STs can play better than they did in the first 10-12 weeks of the season. While there are now some obvious bright spots (David Bruton, Spencer Larsen, Darrell Reid, Darcel McBath), I felt that a major review might be in order. It was a great week to feel that way - wow, what a performance on special teams the Broncos put in place. Huge kudos to MHR favorite Spencer Larsen, who notched a huge 4 special teams tackles and to Darrell Reid, who trailed him with 3. Great job on ST! Eddie Royal looked comfortable and Mitch Berger was a monster - again. I don't know how he avoided the block on that one punt, but I was impressed. Berger has no history of frequently blocked punts; so despite his slower motion, he hasn't let it hurt the team.

How was our kicking game against KC? Take a look:

Extra Points Made-Attempts 5-5
Field Goals Made-Attempts 3-3
Red Zone Efficiency 4-6-67%
Goal-to-go efficiency 2-2-100%

That's the kind of efficient red-zone and ST play that wins games.

Some things are obvious. Royal hasn't had enough room to run on punt returns, mostly due to our tendency to let the offenses get into the 40/40 yard-line range, which lets the teams either punt into the coffin corner or just create a touchback, nullifying Eddie's chances of getting in a good runback. They got over that pattern during the past two games and had two wins. Are they connected? You decide. I'm going to vote yes.

Two names that I wanted to look more closely at this week were Richard Quinn and Russ Hochstein. I recalled Hochstein making a couple of serious errors on ST while we were losing and while I'd heard good things about Quinn's ST work, I hadn't caught him on film enough to develop an opinion one way or the other. that obviously changed in KC - his play on the fake punt was perfect and his blocking on kick returns was excellent as well. Nice to see!

The balance of veterans like Mario Haggan, Champ Bailey, Darrell Reid and Andre' Goodman with younger players such as Bruton, Larsen and McBath seems to have found an area of comfort. Lanes are being filled, discipline has improved, tackling is much better and, just as importantly, we haven't been pinning Royal back in coffin country. This is the first time I've seen us playing the way we need to on special teams in a long time. I can only hope it continues.

Safety in Numbers: It's also obvious that David Bruton was a heck of a 4th-round pickup and that Darcel McBath was a great investment. Over the next 5 years, with those two and Josh Barrett, we're in good shape at safety. There was pre-draft talk of moving McBath to CB if certain teams drafted him - McBath can cover very well and can tackle, too. Denver will keep him at safety, though, and for good reason. He won't replace Renaldo Hill anytime soon, but I love that our chances are that good at when we're covering folks.

The response to the recent rise in short-passing offenses (much like our own) has been a switch to fast, coverage safeties. I believe that McBath can be smoothly moved into the slot currently well-occupied by Renaldo Hill when Hill finally slows. Keep in mind that Hill, too, was a CB/S tweener who played CB during his first 4 years in the NFL. McBath seems to be very much in the same mold - he's also bright, like Hill, and was a team leader in college.

We can also go with two smart, effective covering safeties, and although I will miss Dawk's aggression and leadership when the time comes, Hill is an excellent leader and as mentioned, McBath was also a captain in his own right. I believe that David Bruton has the power to later fill many of B-Dawk's roles, although few will ever do so as well. Bruton was also a defensive captain, a pattern in McDaniels' pickups. Finally, Barrett's ability to cover the best TEs one-on-one and to interchange with Wesley Woodyard when needed is a nickel option that few teams can match. Although everyone, myself included, would love to see an Eric Berry on our team, we can establish safety as a lower-cost, high-return group at any point. The fact that all three have done good things on ST makes me even happier - that's a seventh of the game that we need to win, week in and week out. We're finally starting to win at it with a good mix of veterans and younger players. No surprise, then, that we're back to winning.

By the way, we've scored exactly 70 points in the past two games. Things have changed, and for the better. We still need to improve on our mistakes, but I like the direction things are going in.

raiderology

If I'm Al Davis, which is unlikely in the extreme, I'm having a contract meeting with Bruce Gradkowski's agent tomorrow. Gradkowski is on a one-year (2009) contract for $535,000, and in 2010 becomes a restricted free agent. That is one tough, talented guy and the raiders should get a clue: He's a good option right now and a good backup in the future. When's the last time they had a guy come on and win them games? It's ironic that he's the polar opposite of JaMarcus Russell - smaller and lighter, only 6'1" and 220 lbs, but he's smart, tenacious and can play this game. You don't need to waste a pick in the 1st round - you've got your QB in-house for this year and even next year if you want to make the effort to rebuild the team. The young man earned it. Consider his game against PITT:

Att/Comp Yds YPA TD INT QB Rating
20/33 308 9.3 3 0 121.8

Those are numbers that work for me. He has accuracy issues, no question, and his arm strength isn't what the team would like. I don't think that he's a long-term answer - he's just a heck of a lot better answer than Russell and they can keep him on as a backup when they find someone better. The Raiders love the vertical game too much to have a starting QB that doesn't have the arm for the long ball, but they still need one that has some common sense and drive. Mark Twain mentioned that the problem with common sense is that it ain't. That's been Problem 1 in raiderville for a long time and Russell is a perfect example of why. Right now, Gradkowski is a step up.

The raiders have some good running backs in Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. Darren McFadden fumbles too much, has always had issues with his upright style and injuries; he may mature well, but hasn't shown that consistently yet - so I don't count him. They have a fine young TE in Zach Miller, too. Their receiving corp will be mediocre or worse until they catch onto the fact that running fast is of no use if you can't catch the danged ball. They need a couple of possession receivers badly, preferably veterans who don't need to be bottle-fed. They also need to patch a couple of holes in the O-Line, as in much of it. If they can put together a couple of drafts that actually match their team needs, fine, then they can drop big dollars on a QB. Until then? Gradkowski is fine.

This is one example of how a person's feelings on the theory of team building color their approach to decision-making. I personally believe that you need an offensive line more than any other single factor in football. To me, there's no point in arguing about how to win a Super Bowl until you at least have a team that can contend for their division and I think that you start that with the O-Line and move on from there. The raiders seem to do everything backwards, so this is no shock, but they can buy a few wins for relatively few bucks with Gradkowski and they need to develop a longterm plan for a change.

Speaking of the dead, I found it interesting last week when Nnamdi Asomugha went on record as being against the moribund system that Al Davis has in place of not making defensive adjustments for other teams' systems. Davis stills lives and refuses to die on the theory that you play your own system come drought or flood and you ignore what other teams are doing. We all know how that's been working for Oakland. Since this is a team that we play again soon, I'm content to watch them ignore reality with aplomb, but it's interesting when your best player calls out your system in the media. In other cases, I think that kind of thing smacks of ego, but in this case, it smacks of a legitimate cry for help. One that will be ignored, though, like all the rest.

Concussions (briefly) Continued

The NFL is considering a rule change that involves the running back position. The idea behind it is to prevent the RB from using his head as a battering ram, a style of running that has become increasingly common. Running backs like this maneuver because it permits them to deliver a blow rather than just take them.

I'm torn on this. I'm greatly encouraged by the new guidelines for dealing with concussions, and I support rule changes that will reduce the number of head injuries and simply 'blows to the head', which we now understand to be equally bad or even worse, over the course of time. I recognize the the running backs have a legitimate point regarding this approach - they take so much punishment that it seems harsh to take away one of their few options in return.

However -- running in that fashion is going to increase the number of blows to the head that the athlete experiences. It's really that simple. Research has shown a link between frequent blows to the head, even if they do not induce a concussion per se, and increased brain damage. That's a huge problem - the cumulative effects of those blows are increasing the number of retired players who are experiencing loss of their cognitive faculties. What number of yards makes up for that?

From my admittedly-biased position as a retired doc, I'm in favor of this rule change. Using your head to hit people isn't, well, using your head. I'd like to see alternative techniques taught and coached. I'd like to see an end to the kind of problems that hits like Adrian Peterson's created when he used his head to smash into Detroit safety Louis Delmas. By bending down to where his head was only a foot or so from the ground, Peterson smashed his helmet into Delmas' helmet as Delmas came in to tackle him. It was deliberate, and damaging to both men, if more so to Delmas; the hit left Delmas on the ground. I also would like to see it prohibited to use the head to deliver any kind of hit by any player and would support considering a change in the way that tackling is taught. These changes will not greatly change the way the game is played - just how the players are taught.

I understand that many fans will think that if you change the way the game is taught, it's "not really football" anymore. I'm sympathetic, but let's be real here - no amount of money is worth becoming a walking vegetable in your later years. Demanding that players be willing to trade their own abilities in consciousness for the experience of the NFL is, frankly, barbaric. Yes, it's a tough sport. Yes, it's impossible to prevent all injuries and you shouldn't try. However - dropping some of the gladiatorial fervor in the name of living a normal life beyond football isn't an unreasonable approach. We shouldn't ask anyone to be willing to increase their chances of living with brain trauma just for the chance to be a professional football player -- or for any other sport's sake. I hope that we, as a culture, are willing to move beyond that kind of lower-consciousness belief.

QBs and Ratings

While we're considering the media, consider this from Kerry Byrne at si.com:

16.13 yards per attempt -- This is the number that truly leaps off the stat sheet to those who understand the Cold, Hard Football Facts.

Passing yards per attempt is probably the single greatest individual statistical indicator of success in football, and maybe in all of sports. Teams that win the passing yards per attempt battle win nearly 75 percent of the time and the great quarterbacks almost always have high averages per attempt, from Bart Starr and Johnny Unitas to the greatest winner of all, Otto Graham, whose career average of 8.63 YPA is the best in history. to

So, when you see a number like 16.1 YPA, it pays to investigate a little further. Turns out Brees is just the fifth player since 1960 to average more than 16 yards per pass attempt in a game (min. 20 attempts).

It brings up an interesting point: Many teams - most, in fact - have moved to a NE-style offense with an emphasis on the short pass. That doesn't exclude throwing deep, but it does mean that teams will see more of the short passing game, which will tend to skew that number in the statistics. Since many of the offenses that emphasize the short pass use it much as teams used to use the ground game -- picking up 2-8 years at a time, keeping the clock moving and controlling the ball -- you will see the numbers on yards per attempt lessening. It's still true, however, that yards per attempt can be increased by yards after the catch, and that's an area where the Saints have excelled.

The Broncos are starting to throw deeper passes more often, and experience and comfort level between Brandon Marshall and Kyle Orton is a big factor there. It paid off again, and was that Brandon throwing his TD ball to McDaniels? Nice...so much for Brandon leaving. He likes to talk, but they will open the checkbook to keep him (and Doom).

How many more longer passes? It isn't a vertical game onslaught, but this is from the list of the Broncos top-10 long plays each week:

49 4 3-6-DEN 24 (14:08) K.Orton pass short left to B.Marshall pushed ob at KC 27 for 49 yards (J.McGraw).
19 4 1-10-KC 41 (11:26) K.Orton pass deep left to T.Scheffler to KC 22 for 19 yards (C.Mays).
18 1 1-10-DEN 33 (14:55) K.Orton pass short left to E.Royal to KC 49 for 18 yards (B.Flowers).
17 2 2-6-50 (10:18) C.Buckhalter left tackle to KC 33 for 17 yards (M.Vrabel).

Orton added three plays for 14 yards, two to Marshall, one to Royal. The mid-range game is starting to work better and the running game was money all day long. Then there's the kind of rushing dominance that I hadn't seen in too long. The combination gives us a puncher's chance against anyone, if we can control the line of scrimmage.

Final Note: NTs come Full Circle

Pat Kirwan of NFL.com posted this last week:

3-4 nose tackles are scarce

Any team that plays a 3-4 defense knows that success starts up front with a massive nose tackle that plays over the center's head and forces double teams. In the NFL, 3-4 nose tackles are an endangered species. The Chargers lost Jamal Williams and somehow keep winning. The Jets have dropped three of four games since Kris Jenkins went down. Jason Ferguson of the Dolphins just found he is heading to IR, which leaves Paul Soliai to replace him. All three teams have playoff aspirations, but the lack of a quality nose tackle hurts their chances. So far, the Chargers have adjusted best.

He brings up an interesting point. Increasingly, we are seeing smaller NTs coming in and being effective through leverage and athletic ability -- as well as getting penetration. While it is essential that the NT be able to take up 2 or more blockers, it's not really important that he weight 365 lbs. when doing so. The ability to move other people, great technique and an explosive first step are even more important than size.

Since we are now at 12 teams using the 3-4 in some form full-time and many others that use some hybrid variation at least part of the time, we're not going to necessarily see every team moving to the traditional kind of huge player at NT. Players with skill, stamina and unusual strength and/or leverage as well as a scale-tipping 340 lbs will probably continue to be relatively rare. But as Marcus Thomas (314) has shown in Denver when playing behind Ron Fields (314), as the combination of Travis Johnson (311) and Ogemdi Nwagbuo (303) have shown in San Diego since their massive NT, Jamal Williams (348), went on IR and as Jay Ratliff (304) has shown in Dallas, there is more to the NT position than sheer size. Jason Ferguson comes in at 305, no larger than many 40-front defensive tackles. There's a pattern here.

One of the advantages that Denver has shown this season is that Ron Fields is obviously as good as the commentators who called him a steal believed. Even better, Marcus has shown considerable ability in coming in and handling the NT duties when Fields sits down. Thomas is a serious penetrator who obviously plays by relishing of the chance to compete at this level. If Chris Baker (329) develops this off-season, we may get to see Baker or Thomas showing us their skills at DE - personally, I'd love to see Marcus handling that position, but right now he's the second-best option at NT and a very close second at that. He is also said to really enjoy the position, so perhaps he stays there. An eventual flexible rotation that uses Fields, Thomas and Baker at NT, with Baker or Thomas rotating at DE at times isn't beyond possibility, either. That would be flexible and versatile, hallmarks of the amoeba approach.

Regardless of which one slides over (or whether they do - I'm suggesting an option, not predicting that we'll use it), the fact that we have some solid options in the pipeline at DL speaks well to the way the team will play next season. It also frees up a position in the draft, which always is a comfort. What I'm seeing is that we don't need a NT, thanks to good player evaluation last offseason.

Taming the Colts?

How will we handle Indy? Tough question, since they look like the cream of the league to me right now. If we do, we will do it much as we did against KC, even though Indy is so much better. We need for the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. It's the only real way to limit him - he's just too good. We need our coverage to be what it's been the past two weeks - or even better. I don't know if even Champ and Goodman can shut down Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and friends, but for us to have a good chance, they will have to. It will be up to Ryan Clady and the offensive line to handle Dwight Feeney. Giving Orton time to throw and the right holes to our newly-empowered running game gives us the best chance. We will be mixing the zone blocking and gap blocking again - over the past two games, that has really begun to gel, right on time for a run at the wild-card slot.

We can't keep committing unforced errors. I suspect that our game will hinge on that -- too many players have contributed cognitive flatulence by taking stupid penalties this season. If we beat ourselves, we're toast. We need to show that we can play like a playoff team and make them beat us. Indy is a predator - always ready to pounce on the weaknesses a team manifests. We're moving two time zones and Indy is murder at home.

It's our toughest game of the year. I look forward to seeing where we measure up.

Go Broncos!

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Reed Hoffmann - AP

18 days ago: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Brodie Croyle (12) has a pass attempt blocked by Denver Broncos tight end Richard Quinn (81) during a fake punt attempt at the start of the second half of their game, giving the Broncos the ball deep in Chiefs territory in their NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann)

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Happy Tuesday, friends, and welcome to another edition of ST&NO. After being sick last week, and running an abbreviated version on Wednesday, I am back in full effect this week. I feel kind of like Stringer Bell in season 2 of The Wire, when Avon Barksdale was locked up, and their supplier cut them off. Stringer said he needed to put out a smoker to hold the towers, and I feel like a smoker is similarly needed this week with ST&NO. After all, I can't really do what Stringer actually did, when he couldn't get his raw dope, and change the name. Nobody is going to read a column called Death Grip, you know? (Really, I don't know what kind of drug addict would buy dope called Death Grip, but that's neither here nor there.) Anyway, here comes the high test stuff, with the same name as always. So fill up your coffee, get comfortable, and let's get right to it. Ready.... BEGIN!!!

1. You have to like how the Broncos looked Sunday, even in spite of 3 turnovers by Kyle Orton. They once again beat down a bad team, which is what good teams have to do. They shot a hole in the terribly inane thinking that they couldn't win in Kansas City in December, and they strengthened their hold on the 5th seed in the playoffs. Helping matters, the Steelers and Ravens both lost to fall to 6-6, so their two competitors who beat them head-to-head lost some ground. I fully expect Jacksonville to choke, and I am starting to think that Miami is going to sneak into the 6th spot, actually.

In any case, the Broncos are in a pretty good place right now. Peter King declared them to be toast two weeks ago, done, kaput. On Monday, he called them a psycho team, and ranked them 10th in the Fool 15. I am still feeling good about this Indianapolis game, and I am sure that the Broncos match up pretty well with the Colts. Coverage is the only way to beat them, and the Broncos are back to covering as well as anybody. I fully expect the Broncos to run for 150 yards against the Colts too, if they can keep the score within striking distance.

It's a good Tuesday to be a Broncos fan. Our team is in in the midst of a season which we can only consider to be a success up until this point. They've come together as a team, learned how to win close games against good teams, learned how to blow out bad teams, and figured out their brand new schemes. They've seemingly bought into one of the main Patriots mantras, that Durability is more important than Ability. Everybody is working hard to Do Their Job. This is when it's good to be a fan of a team, and when it's good to be a fan of a team, it's great to be alive.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Kansas City

a. Kyle Orton had a C+ game, but I felt like all three turnovers he committed were a result of him being somewhat greedy. He's supposed to be the guy who checks it down when nothing is there, isn't he? I hope that film provides a good reminder for him to do so.

b. Knowshon Moreno improves every week, and he's really looking decisive lately. You can tell that he has had a big dose of Bobby Turner's foot in his backside this year. For a pick I didn't love when it was made, I have really come to be happy with Knowshon.

c. I was pretty worried during Kansas City's 20 play first quarter drive, because the tackling and gap discipline looked pretty bad. The Broncos sure stiffened by the goal line, though, and they set the tone for the rest of the game's defensive performance.

d. I meant to talk about setting the edge last week, but I forgot to. My brother Chris felt that Matt Millen made too much of the concept during the Broncos-Giants game, but I disagree, because it's all-important to the way the Broncos run the ball, and the way they defend against the run. The Broncos have been fanstastic in their own running game with setting the edge the past two games, led by Daniel Graham. He is getting out and winning his battles outside, and giving the runners a sealed edge to run inside of. Many of Correll Buckhalter's big runs on Sunday came just inside of Graham.

On defense, the idea is the same, but the defender wants to push the edge man back into the inside, and close off the outside lane. Mario Haggan has been doing this as well as any LB in the NFL this season. He has really found his niche as a physical, upfield run player. Ryan McBean makes a lot of plays in this way, as well.

Winning the physical battles at the edge is the key to everything for the Broncos, and they lost those battles during the losing streak. Since they've gotten back to winning, it's been no accident that they're winning at the edge on both sides of the ball.

e. The kick return where Eddie Royal faked a reverse to Brandon Marshall was interesting. I expect to see them actually hand that off one of these weeks.

f. Alphonso Smith needs to knock off the sucker penalties.

g. Spencer Larsen is an appreciably better blocker than Peyton Hillis. He just thumps guys, and it goes well with the work that Graham and Richard Quinn are doing at TE.

h. Tony Scheffler had a huge 3^rd down drop in 2^nd Quarter, and it was exactly the kind of play that has prevented the Broncos from being an elite offense. You have to make plays when they are available to be made. At least Scheffler blasted the return man on the ensuing punt.

i. Tamba Hali is a good fit for the 3-4, as I have been saying since the preseason. He's aggressive, quick, strong, and as a lifelong down DE, he has very good technique. The first sack he got on Ryan Clady was all technique. The Broncos did take advantage of Hali's aggressiveness on both TD passes, though, and also on the 49 yard bubble screen that Brandon Marshall had.

j. I saw where somebody said we should thank Phildelphia for Brian Dawkins and Correll Buckhalter. Miami is due a thank you card for Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, as well. If Goodman were just a little better tackler, I'd be even happier, but everybody should have noticed by now that the ball just seems to find its way into his hands.

k. Matt Prater has developed into one of the best kickers in the NFL. It's time we all realize that, and appreciate his work.

l. My biggest problem with Mitch Berger is that he takes too long to get the ball off. He had yet another seeing-eye punt on Sunday, which inexplicably missed a dead-to-rights block. Upgrading the punter position has to be a huge priority in the offseason.

m. It was great to see Peyton Hillis running the ball again, and he reminded the world that he can do some damage with it. Hopefully, the performance will get him some snaps on offense, because he clearly has something to contribute.

n. I really like Darcel McBath as a matchup safety. He is always around the ball when he is on the field, and I think his pick was a triumph of player evaluation. Draftniks considered him a reach, but he was hard to spot on some abysmal Texas Tech defensive units. He clearly has the goods, though; it jumps off the screen at you.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other games

a. I watched most of the San Francisco-Seattle game, and you know that means I will have some Alex Smith thoughts. He played great on Sunday, and did everything the team needed from him to win, short of missing one open receiver on a deep out in the 4^th quarter. It was the first 300 yard passing game of his career, and it should have been a lot more. His teammates dropped at least 9 passes in the game, including 3 TDs, by Delanie Walker, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree.

b. Speaking of Smith, I meant to clear up an uttlerly stupid comment made by the always-brilliant Solomon Wilcots during last week's game. The head cold I was feeling made me forget to mention it, I guess. Wilcots noticed that the 49ers were (smartly) using Smith in the shotgun very frequently, and he said (I'm paraphrasing) that Smith was very comfortable, because he had used the exact same offense throughout college.

That's very interesting, Saruman, except, he didn't. This gets to my constant annoyance about the term "Spread Offense." There is no one monolithic spread offense. There are college teams which do some similar things formationally, with a lot of WRs, and many plays with the QB taking snaps from the shotgun, but the actual plays vary greatly. The 49ers aren't doing anything that is much like the Urban Meyer offense he played in at Utah. There are no option plays, and no shovel passes. The pass routes are actually tending to be much more horizontal and timed than the stuff he did in college.

A bunch of WRs and a shotgun setup does not mean you're playing a "spread offense," and saying that you're playing a "spread offense" doesn't mean the same thing from one place to the next. Smith is most comfortable in his footwork and reads from the shotgun, and he has time to get the ball out before he gets crushed behind the Niners terrible O-line. Smith has been sacked only once in the last 2 games. My only concern is that they've abandoned the run too much, and need to stick to it much more.

c. I remember thinking that Seattle looked pretty good against the Broncos in the preseason, but as I watched the game today, I was thinking that I really don't like the way their team is constructed. They have 3 terribly overpaid guys at WR (Deion Branch, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Nate Burleson), and not much talent at RB or on the offensive line. The only players I really like at all on their defense are Brandon Mebane and Aaron Curry. They have a lot of money invested in Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill at LB, but I think both guys are just solid players (Tatupu is currently hurt, obviously.) I think they ought to go to a 3-4, if they can get a good NT in the offseason. (A few should be available.) The guy they have, Colin Cole, is more of a backup caliber guy. They could stand up Patrick Kerney, and use Curry in a blitzing role, which he is best suited for. Of course, their secondary will still be lousy, unless they address it.

d. Chad Henne looked really good on Sunday. I had the Miami-New England game on the smaller TV, during the Broncos game, and just about every time I looked over, he was making a play for his team. If he keeps it up, he'll be able to easily afford tattoo removal before too long.

e. ST&NO favorite Sean Smith had an interesting game on Sunday. He gave up an 81 yard TD to Sam Aiken on a play where he had perfect bump and run coverage but didn't find the ball in the air, and fell down trying. Later, he got beaten by Aiken on a double move, and Tom Brady overthrew him by about a foot. He got beat on a perfectly covered play, and got lucky on a busted coverage play. Such is the nature of being a CB playing a lot of man-to-man. By the way, Smith continues to look like he'll have a long career as one of the best man coverage players in the NFL.

f. I really liked what the Giants did on defense Sunday against Dallas, and I picked them based upon some moves I heard about during the week. For one thing, they moved a good CB, Aaron Ross, to FS, and benched the abysmal C.C. Brown. For another, they took a big-name guy, Osi Umenyiora, out of the starting lineup, and replaced him with Mathias Kiwanuka. Osi struggles against the run, and the Broncos continually ran at him on Thanksgiving night. The Giants correctly identified their top priority as containing the Dallas running game, and made the move to the stouter Kiwanuka.

The effect was that both guys played really well. Umenyiora was actually used quite a bit in coverage, and he did pretty well. He's really a lean, athletic guy, and he did well in that role. He also recovered a key fumble, and returned it for a bunch of yards. The Giants held the Cowboys to 45 yards rushing on 23 carries, and it's the primary reason they won the game.

g. Don't give too much credence to this "Tony Romo/Wade Phillips can't win in December" stuff. Romo, particularly, played pretty well Sunday, and the loss wasn't on him. It was on a few defensive breakdowns which led to big plays, and the aforementioned lack of an effective running game.

Remember the one about correlation not necessarily reflecting causality? There is a real danger to putting too much stock in facts which Peter King insists on incorrectly referring to as factoids. The December record for the Cowboys the past few years is a case in point. It doesn't necessarily foretell what will happen this year, and even if the Cowboys lose a bunch of games this month, it may have nothing to do with the month. Remember, a football game is an independent event, which is comprised of many individual independent events. What happened in the past is meaningless.

h. Another example of this foolishness with meaningless statistics, while we're at it, was any credence being put into the fact that the Broncos were 1-16 all-time in Kansas City, during the month of December. Where to begin with this?

Well, in the most obvious place, of considering the significance of recency. If no players or coaches (or even owners) remain from the time when a game was played, that game has no meaning. A game in 1972 was played between the Chiefs and the Broncos, but not THESE Chiefs and Broncos. A rational person realizes that that game may as well have been between any two teams.

Another idea I had about this, that I wanted to share, harkens back to my days as a Finance major at THE Cleveland State University. There was a required class, Financial Markets and Institutions, which was really a BS class. It was taught by a really overweight, smelly, tenured professor who breathed really heavily, and the dude didn't ever teach anything, ever.

The class met in a computer lab, and consisted of 4 group analysis projects. We were given a bunch of parameters of a hypothetical economic environment, and we had to choose the 3-year period of the last 30 years, which was most predictive of the behavior of whatever financial instrument we were analyzing. We then used data from that 3 year period to analyze and project the performance of that instrument, and built a 6 slide PowerPoint discussing quantitative and qualitative reasons for our analysis. That was a 4 credit class.

Anyway, I was thinking that a reasonable thing to do might be to look into whether there was ever a time in semi-recent history where the two teams profiled like these two do, AND they played a game at Arrowhead in December. I didn't find any instances where the Broncos were a playoff caliber team, the Chiefs were a complete doormat, and the schedule played out this way. You could say I was not surprised at all by Sunday's result.

i. Chris Johnson is very dangerous, but I am not one of these people who is jumping up to call him the best RB in the NFL. For one thing, I think he makes the Titans a finesse running team. They do a ton of zone blocking for him, and he runs to the edges all the time, but without the kind of one-cut decisiveness that Broncos runners have always been coached into employing. Really, Johnson is a bit over-patient, in my opinion, and it's his exceptional burst and speed that let him mostly get away with it. I also continue to have my doubts about Johnson's ability to handle the heavy workload he gets, over a number of years. The Titans would be smart to get a legitimate second guy to take one third of the carries, because they apparently don't think LenDale White is that guy.

j. The Titans blew one on Sunday, and the way they did makes me feel even better about the Broncos' prospects for winning in Indianapolis next week. At halftime, the Titans had 2 more yards, and 6 more minutes of time of possession than the Colts, and Indianapolis led 24-10. The Titans also had 2 turnovers. Nate Washington dropped a perfect deep ball. There were plays available to be made, and the Titans failed to make them.

k. I watched the Steelers debacle against the Raiders, and all I can pin their problems on is missing Troy Polamalu. I think their defensive play-calling is less aggressive without Polamalu, and they're letting QBs have more time to throw the ball than the Steelers are known for doing. Bruce Gradkowski had some real good chances to get the ball downfield at times. It just gets back to the concept of a defense needing all its parts to be effective.

l. This stuff about Gradkowski being the answer for the Raiders is silly. He's a solid backup, and a try-hard guy, but he's not a starter for a winning football team. He lacks accuracy and arm strength, isn't particularly mobile, and just looks kind of underwhelming when you watch him.

m. Everybody knows I am generally not the biggest D.J. Williams lover, and I am going to reveal a closely held secret today, since I wanted to make this a smoker. My main problem with D.J. always has been that he isn't Steven Jackson. Back in 2004, I was fired up for the Broncos to draft Jackson, and a lot of Mel Kipers thought they would. They had just traded Clinton Portis, and I wanted a new RB.

When the Broncos took D.J., I was mad, my brother Chris will tell you. No matter what he ever does, I may not get over it. Anyway, I believe that Jackson is having the best season of any RB in the NFL this season, if you consider his circumstances. He has no QB, no line, not much at WR, and he continues to produce at a very high level. He's still only 26 years old, and he continues to be a great player.

n. Cedric Benson was back to his workhorse ways this week, and Larry Johnson was back to sitting on the bench. I continue to be impressed with the run blocking of Bengals LT Andrew Whitworth. He was a star at LSU, and was believed to be more of a guard, which is why he went in the second round. He has been blowing guys off the ball, though, as a LT. He's been similar to Jake Long, but better this season.

o. Matthew Stafford is clearly a tremendously tough kid, because he's been getting killed every week for the Lions, and he keeps coming back. He has a ways to go from a decision-making perspective, but he has to have the respect of his teammates, and you can't minimize the importance of that to a QB.

p. A lot has been made of the Michael Vick sighting in Atlanta, but the truth of the story is that he played a lot of garbage snaps in a blowout. The best thing you can say about him is that he showed he still has good run skills, and decent throwing skills. He completed both of his throws, but the long ball was kind of a duck thrown into a crowd, where Reggie Brown made a play on the ball. I do think he's going to get a look in a place like Carolina, which has no prospect of drafting a QB early.

q. Some pundit in the ESPN-o-sphere was recently trying to hypopulate that the Falcons were better off with Chris Redman at QB than Matt Ryan. As much of a non-fan of Ryan as I am, that's stupid. There's a good reason Redman was out of the league for more than 3 years, and that it took nepotism from his college coach, Bobby Petrino, to bring him back. He's been solid in some of his appearances, but there's no team in the NFL right now, for whom he is an upgrade over their starter.

r. If you remember back to the 2008 Draft, no WR was selected in the first round, and the first one chosen was Donnie Avery by the Rams. All the draftniks called Devin Thomas the best prospect, and had him going in the first round, and he eventually went one pick after Avery, 34^th.

He's playing fantastic football lately, and his rise really kind of started in the Denver game. Thomas is showing the qualities of a number 1 WR, and whoever his coach is next year, he is really going to benefit from it. Having a big, physical outside player like Thomas opens up the field for a guy like Santana Moss. Washington's recent offensive improvement has a lot to do with the light bulb going on for Thomas.

s. Percy Harvin didn't actually play RB at the University of Florida, and as a UF alum, Cris Collinsworth should know that. Collinsworth was trying to say that Harvin never ran any routes in college, and that couldn't be further from the truth. He didn't exactly run a full tree, but he ran many crossing routes, slants, and go routes. He has incredible run skills for an outside player, but he's a natural WR, make no mistake about it.

t. I hadn't gotten a look at Kurt Warner's wife in awhile, and she seems to have really upgraded her hair-sylist over the years. Back when Kurt won a Super Bowl, she looked like the kind of mom I would see wearing mom jeans, dragging around a bunch of kids at Wal-Mart, if I shopped at Wal-Mart. It's okay to wear mom jeans and shop at Wal-Mart, lest I offend anybody who does, but it's different for the MVP's wife.

u. Do these Gap ads with dancing beautiful people doing cheerleader cadences and wearing plaid make anybody want to go buy plaid clothing? I am interested in marketing and advertising, so if you're a ST&NO reader who finds those ads effective, I'd appreciate you saying so in the comments. My hypothesis is that they don't work well for anybody who reads this column.

v. My other holiday season advertising analysis is as follows: I think the Best Buy caroling store clerks suck, but at least people who watch football tend to buy stuff at Best Buy. I bet they're trying to snag a wife or two with those ads. The Open Hearts collection at Kay Jewelers is of very little interest to the average male football fan, who tends not to care about Dr. Quinn, Medicine Woman's mommy's trite advice. Kay ought to stick to their ads which say, "Your wife will give you some incremental action for a couple weeks, if you buy her a diamond. The bigger th diamond, the more action." It communicates the needed psychological message to men better. I do like the Go Forth Levi's ads, and I think they're very effective, vis-à-vis the football watching audience whom they're aired for.

w. The Cardinals are for real, again, and the main reason they are is that they have legitimate stars at every level of their defense. Darnell Dockett has been a star, and Calais Campbell is turning into one at DE. Karlos Dansby is terrific at LB, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Adrian Wilson are both big-time players too. The underrated guy who I like is Antrel Rolle. He was kind of a bust as a first round CB, but he's terrific as a matchup safety. He's very smart, and can match up man-to-man with inside WRs or TEs. He also has excellent ball skills. The Cardinals could beat any team in the NFL on a day where both their offense and defense are clicking, because their personnel is definitely good enough on both sides of the ball.

x. Watching the Packers version of the 3-4 Monday night, I was struck by the difference between what they're doing, and what the Broncos do. Denver's scheme is much more similar to what the Cardinals, Ravens, and Jets are doing, where the pass rush is fairly conservative, and setting the edge and keeping contain responsibilities is often the main concern. If you watch what the outside rushers do for the Broncos a lot of times, they're not coming full-steam at the QB. Elvis Dumervil, Robert Ayers, and Darrell Reid are often asked to do more wrestling with O-Linemen than they are asked to run around people.

The Packers play more like the Steelers, where they're speed rushing off the edge. The point I am getting to is that Clay Matthews is a great fit for what the Packers are asking him to do, where Ayers is more of a fit for the Broncos scheme, despite his lack of sacks. Ayers has just missed a lot of sacks, and with better technique, he'll get there. He's doing a lot more than running around people, though.

y. Jermichael Finley is enormously talented, and is really starting to come into his own for the Packers. You can see that Aaron Rodgers is really developing a lot of trust in him.

z. The Packers are really protecting Rodgers a lot better than they were in the early part of the season. I've been very critical of Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher both over the past two years, but they've been an upgrade over the bums they replaced. Tauscher even caught his first NFL pass on Monday night, off a deflection.

aa. Rodgers is really starting to remind me of Rich Gannon in his Raiders years. He's so calm, and he goes to the right place with the ball all the time, with accuracy. He's playing as well as any QB in the NFL this season if you consider what he is doing independently.

ab. Lardarius Webb is so dangerous returning kickoffs. The Ravens, again, found a gem in the Draft

ac. Everybody knows I am a Joe Flacco fan, but he needs to remember never to throw the ball late down the middle. The officials tried to give the Ravens the game with all those late pass interference penalties and Flacco blew the game with his late interceptions.

4. Most regulars know that I am a Florida Gators fan, so I was pretty disappointed in the result of the SEC Championship game. Alabama deserved to win, because they made every play that was available for them to make. Florida made plays with very few of their opportunities, and that's what happens.

Anyway, nobody can deny that that game was a bonanza of future NFL players. I wanted to share some thoughts on about 10 guys who I think could go in the first 2 rounds in April, from the two schools.

a. Carlos Dunlap DE Florida Top 5

Mel Kiper downgraded Dunlap to 14^th on his Big Board after his DUI, but that's not going to mean anything when he compares favorably to Mario Williams in testing and measurements. His college film is better too, and he can play in any type of front. He and Ndamukong Suh will be the first two defensive players drafted.

b. Joe Haden CB Florida Top 10

Haden is by far the best CB in the nation. His play was a lonely bright spot for Florida, as he shut down the extremely talented Julio Jones. Haden is fast, fluid, smart, strong, and he has excellent ball skills. He compares as a prospect to Darrelle Revis.

c. Terrence Cody NT Alabama Top 20

He's not fat anymore, and he's covering a lot more space laterally than he did a year ago. His athleticism really flashes for such a huge man, and his strength is terrific. He punked Florida into not even trying to run their dive series. I'm a big fan of this guy.

d. Brandon Spikes ILB Florida Top 20

Spikes is not an elite athlete, but he's an elite player. He's downhill all the time in the running game, and he strikes guys as hard as any college player you'll ever see. He's also as naturally gifted and instinctive in pass coverage as Ray Lewis, and he's a similar type of emotional leader. What intrigues me most at the NFL level with Spikes is his natural pass-rushing skills. He really can get after a QB. He'll only run a 4.65 or 4.7, but he'll be an every down player, and make a bunch of Pro Bowls, trust me.

e. Rolando McClain ILB Alabama Top 20

McClain is big, fast, and smart. He's a bit less of a playmaker than Spikes, and more of a cerebral guy than an emotional one. He'll be a very good 3-4 ILB for many years in the NFL.

f. Tim Tebow QB Florida Top 25

Scouts don't like him that much, but coaches love him. Mike Shanahan, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick are all on record as thinking he'll be a big-time QB in the NFL. I am pretty sure the Jaguars are going to take him in the first round if he's on the board. Even Florida Governor Charlie Crist (an FSU guy, actually) was in the media Monday calling for it to happen. There is no doubt in my mind that he can play at the NFL level, despite his divergence from norms. He's the second coming of Donovan McNabb to me.

g. Aaron Hernandez TE Florida First Round

Hernandez is a junior, and he's not a huge or great in-line blocker. He's a tremendously gifted receiver though, as good as any who has been draft-eligible in many years. He is extremely dangerous after the catch, which is rare for a guy his size (6-2, 250.)

h. Javier Arenas CB Alabama Second Round

I really like Arenas as a CB, but I love him as a return man. I think he projects as a solid #2 CB, and a Pro Bowl caliber special teams player. His short, stout build works against him as a CB, but for him as a ball carrier.

i. Riley Cooper WR Florida Second Round

Who? He's the tall white guy who has been wearing #11 the past two years. (He wore #86 the first two, when he was primarily a special teamer.) He's been called the fastest Gator in a 60 yard dash, and as Gary Danielson noted on Saturday, nobody seems to be able to cover him, especially when they try to press him. Cooper had his way with Arenas several times, and he dominated Patrick Robinson from Florida State the week before. He's 6-3, 215 pounds, and very strong, which he puts to use in beating press coverage, and he's a dominant blocker outside. He projects as an outside-the-numbers deep threat type, and special teams ace, and when he runs a 4.35 at the combine, he's going to shoot up boards. The only question is if he'd rather play baseball instead (he's part of the Rangers minor league system already.) I think his future is brighter in football.

j. Jermaine Cunningham DE-OLB Florida Second Round

Cunningham projects as a starter at the NFL level, probably as an OLB in a 30 front. He plays much bigger than his size, and takes on blocks well. He kind of reminds me of Mario Haggan, actually.

k. Mike Johnson G Alabama Second Round

This is the type of guy I'd like to see the Broncos take in the second round. He is a strong and experienced drive blocker.

You can add in a few more Gators too, who seem less likely to declare at this moment, if they do. The Pouncey twins, Mike and Maurkice, project as late first or second round picks as interior offensive linemen, and S Major Wright looks like a second rounder to me.

5. I meant to mention this last week too, and I wanted to make the point. Matt Millen was a terrible general manager, but he is an outstanding in-game color analyst. There is nobody on TV who adds more value to a fan's understanding of what is going on than Millen does.

During the Broncos-Giants game, he pointed out how Kyle Orton was calling out the Mike. The average fan doesn't know what a Mike is, so Millen mentioned that it generally means Middle Linebacker. He also went on to mention that the reason Orton is calling out a Mike is to communicate to the protection that that player is the fifth player to account for. A lot of times it was a defensive back, but Orton was communicating who he thought was the most likely fifth rusher.

After the Monday night game, he was talking about how the Packers have shored up their protection, particularly against the double A-gap blitzing that Baltimore loves to do. It's a little bit hard to separate the man from his art, but you have to. He's outstanding on TV, and should be listened to.

My friend Tony from Norwich sent me this link last week, where the Sporting News rated the best sportscasters. I found it interesting, so I thought I'd share it, since it's germane to this rant. I think they have some total losers on their list, primarily Al Michaels, Verne Lundquist, Dan Fouts, and Mike Patrick. Lundquist is the worst play-by-play man ever, if you ask me.

Just prior to the start of the SEC Championship Debacle, Verne was getting down to business. Paraphrasing, he said, "I don't know what Alabama is doing, but Javier Arenas isn't on the field to return this kick." As number 28 warmed up on the TV screen, waiting for the kick to arrive. I threw my Gator hat across the room, and Tweeted:

He misidentifies players constantly, and gets a lot of rules-related topics wrong too. Gary Danielson is excellent, but Verne is a 9,000 ton anchor dragging him down.

6. I got a reader email which forced to be a little introspective last week, and I need to address something real quick, as a result of it. The reader didn't sign the message, but the crux of it was that he/she felt like I am really full of myself, and that that was "repugnant." (Repugnant was his/her actual word.)

I didn't thnk I would ever need to do this, but I am going to explain the central concept of ST&NO, so there's clarity among us all. The premise of this feature, for which I am sure I have written well over 100,000 words during the past year, is that insightful analysis can be, and should be, combined with humor, personality, and entertaining writing. Every week, that's what I try to bring to the table, and I work hard to make this a coherent, continuous, unified narrative, which everybody can feel like they're part of.

Now, I am definitely not known for false humility. What good does it do to pretend to lack self-awareness, for the comfort of insecure people? I know my work is very good, and if I didn't think it was, I think I'd be an A-clown to spend so much time on it. Everybody who does this has some ego about their work, believe me.

Believe it or not, watching 6 games on a Monday night, and then writing for 6 hours after that, after working all day, can get pretty boring and tiresome. It is work, just like what I do in my office all day. I choose to do this work because you, my readers, reaffirm that you want to read it every week. It's not worth the effort to just do it for myself.

Now, understand that I'm not going to change anything, really. Not being Joe Milquetoast is frankly a subtle part of the humor of ST&NO, and it's a true picture of who I am as a person. I'm not at all meek, and I'm not looking to inherit the Earth, or any other damn thing. I'm here to work hard and personally earn what I get. When I say I am a high-talent, high-work ethic accountant, it's because that is a demonstrable fact. You'll recall that I said it as part of a larger point about football and the media environment. I have thought all week about whether I am inappropriately arrogant, and I really think that the answer is no. I think I land in a reasonable place, really, given the givens. So, I am going to keep writing, I am going to keep doing work that I am proud of, and I am going to do it to add value for you, and for future readers who aren't even aware of ST&NO yet. I humbly thank you all for being my readers and commenters, and that was the type of humility that I do value; the genuine kind.

7. Retired for John Elway.

8. Okay, I need to end on a good note, and I am going to bed at 1 AM Cleveland time, on Tuesday morning, so I can think and dream on what that note should be. I'll be back in 5 1/2 hours to finish up, hopefully with a great idea. Ready..... STOP

Okay, I am back. Ready.... BEGIN!!! My alarm wakes me up to the local low-brow morning radio show, Rover's Morning Glory. Through my adventures with the snooze bar, I got to hear a lot of stilted Tiger Woods chatter, because apparently, his wife split, and he had some other blond woman over who left in an ambulance this morning.

He's being an idiot, from the sound of things. I don't know who is advising him; maybe T.O.'s publicist who said he had 25 million reasons to live? Tiger ought to just fess up for everything, like David Letterman. When you're in the mud, you might as well just get everything out there voluntarily, because there's no more incremental damage he could take. If you're Wee-Bey, and you're already going to prison for life for six murders, you might trade copping to a few more for a sandwich. The number ceases to matter, as long as it all comes out now.

Tiger's reputation is fried in this moment, so he might as well say, look, yes, I was out fooling around with a lot of other women. I am not even sure how many, but it was more than several. This is a flaw in my character which I am working hard to overcome. Elin and I appreciate you giving us the benefit of some privacy, as we work through a very hard time in each of our lives. (Then, you quit having women over for awhile, and even if you don't, you make sure none of them leave your house in an ambulance.)

By not deflating the story with an "it was a lot / I have a problem" blanket statement, Tiger is letting each new revelation, by each self-serving former mistress, hurt him individually. Duji, the radio chick, was saying there are 10 who have now been identified. That's really not that many, if you're just a regular guy who is serious about philandering. A very average man could do that in a couple months, pretty easily. If you're Tiger Woods, you could have 10 in about 3 days.

Remember the haters? Well, a lot of people love to hate Tiger. He's there with Roger Federer, Derek Jeter, Tom Brady, and Jeff Gordon in that way, as guys who are so talented, and so polished that relatively untalented and unpolished people are apt to hate them. (Gordon ought to have a Gillette commercial, too. I bet they figure people who like Gordon already use good shaving equipment.) It's really an ugly trait, to root for the failure of the most talented people, but a lot of people do it. Let's drag everybody down to our own level.

Tiger needs to go on Oprah or Letterman (probably Letterman is better, given the circumstances.) If he gets all the way clean, and then disappears off the public radar for a few months, this can be stopped pretty effectively. The TMZ's and their ilk will still try to keep it going, but it will fade pretty quickly when there is no new news. Letterman already isn't being actively cast as a philanderer. Tiger can come back in the spring, with a pre-packaged narrative about how these trying times have caused him to re-invest himself in his golf game, win a few tournaments (people will perceive him to have slipped, even though he was recently playing fine), and turn this into a redemption story. Americans love redemption stories, after all.

That's all I have for this week, friends. Have a great one, and as always, tell me what you think in the comments. ST&NO may be ending for now, but the discussion is just beginning.

Broncos Thoughts and Musings - Kansas City Week

Emmett Smith — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 13:30:13 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

27 days ago: Denver Broncos defensive end Elvis Dumervil (92) reacts after sacking New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Denver, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009. Denver won 26-6. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

Browse more photos »

Following the burden of four losses, and continuing through the lighter job of a Thanksgiving turkey-down being visited on the NY Giants, I've been busy in the film room. The Broncos had gone through a hard stretch of the season and I wanted to know why: What changed? What made them goats after weeks of success? The game film was the only place to find out.

Of course, film room is a slight exaggeration. It's also the TV room, the reading room, the computer room and the filing room. In my case, it holds a large table that holds a lot of equipment, including my phones, router, speakers, tower (yes, I was raised PC) and a 26-inch monitor that lets me work in comfort. I worked in a padded brown leather office chair and a small table for the keyboard. I'd go wireless, but the keyboard is a special ergonomic model that I got used to and can't stop using. Maybe Microsoft will awaken and make a wireless version of this one, but so far, no joy. You can step outside the french doors that lead from the room onto my deck and watch the molten brass of the autumn sun sliding down into the ocean almost every night and that's a big plus. I miss the mountains, but that view doesn't seem to get old.

It's the only room that I have privacy in, other than a bedroom, but when I'm watching this much film, it's definitely a film room, so I'll use that term. The TV will have a DVD or a Tivo going that's relevant and the computer can be running two more games at once if I need to make some comparisons. I indulged in a quad core, 64-bit with a suitably large HD and an even larger external backup drive that saves everything, everyday. If I'm not on the computer, I also put in a leather recliner for the TV. Life is not hard...anyway you slice it, I've had a lot of time to watch the Broncos recently. The first few days of that were sheer torture, but it suddenly got much easier on Thursday last. It's funny how you enjoy breaking down film more when your team is winning.

I spent a lot of time watching each of the losses and trying to comprehend exactly why, in terms of their on-field play, they were losing. It was a helpful exercise. The losses showed exactly why we were struggling and the victory last week showed equally well what happens when you rectify those same errors. Losing is usually about errors -- sometimes you just are beaten by a better team, but most of the time you open the door and usher them into the victory circle. Jimmy Johnson is a complicated man but he nailed it when he pointed out that you only have to beat about 10 teams in the NFL. The others will create the victory for you if you just stay around. That's exactly what Denver was doing.

The entire breakdown is fiendishly long and I won't bore you with all of it. I'll pull bits and pieces off of it as the next few weeks move along. I can say this -- everyone agrees that there are certain basic principles that are essential to winning. Discipline is essential. Gap control is essential. Success in the trenches is essential. Mental errors are the bane of the football existence. If you just apply those to the losses, you'll find that nearly every failure was created not by the opponent, but by the Broncos.

For those who have asked me, yes, I was badly disappointed in the work of the referees during some of the games. They missed calls, called phantom infractions and generally weren't as good as they have to be, but the real culprit was gazing implacably out of the mirrors in the locker room when the Broncos came back in from the games. Here are a few observations to get us started, in no particular order.

Tight Spots

It didn't take a lot of film work to notice exactly why the Broncos drafted Richard Quinn earlier this year. Josh McDaniels requires a talented blocking tight end and long-time TE Daniel Graham showed up on film as having difficulty at holding the edge on passing downs. While Quinn is still struggling to master the speed of the NFL and the intricacies of the complex Broncos offense, he was the highest-rated blocking TE at this year's Combine. He'll have to step up greatly to fulfill the Broncos' faith in him, taking him as the last pick in the 2nd round of the 2009 Draft, but it's still fair to say that Graham was struggling during the losses. He'd look like an All-Pro on one, then disappear on the next.

About Quinn - the Broncos drafted off of a 'short board' this year, listing only those players that they felt would fit their system effectively. That has led to complaints by the Mile High community regarding where, exactly, they made their choices, but it explains a lot. Drafting a player that they didn't see in their system makes far less sense than using a 2nd-round pick on a player who was rated in the late-2nd to the 4th round. Why Quinn? Because during the losses, Daniel Graham made me wonder if he was getting older. Of course, after last Thursday, I'm not as concerned with that problem. He just hadn't played his best for a few games.

When Graham is on, he's one of the best. Blocking, chipping, running routes and catching, Graham is a tremendous advantage for Denver. When he fails, though, especially since Tyler Polumbus was struggling, it can make for a long game for both the run and the pass.

Graham has an issue with his hand placement. I've mentioned this previously on a thread, but he has a tendency to grab at the outermost aspect of the shoulders of the jersey. Technically, it IS holding, the way he uses it. Keep in mind, by the way, that his placement is legal as long as he works inside from it. Unfortunately, Graham has been finishing plays with a hip-twist to the side that takes down his player with a judo-like throw. He seems to do this a great deal - some refs call it, some don't, but he has to learn a better hand placement or we will have that issue regularly. It's a lot of fun to watch, but is still illegal. We need his play, though - he's still one of the best, all-around, and that's a huge plus.

Lots of fans including myself have awaited two things - a more balanced attack and better usage of Tony Scheffler. A big reason the latter didn't happen was that the blocking wasn't good enough for him to be used as a receiver more often. As the blocking improved, magically, Scheffler got free and started to create matchup troubles for NY.

It all starts with blocking. The trenches are where the games are won.

Being Offensive

Speaking of blocking, watching film over the past week has opened my eyes to the exact nature of the Broncos' decline on offense. I'd like to state, for the record, that I more or less expected to see problems that could be traced to many players and situations, but particularly to issues with the blocking and to the offensive line. I was still stunned to see how far those problems on the O-Line extended, though. Here are a couple of examples from the 1st quarter of the Pittsburgh game that might serve to clarify the issue. They were good illustrations of what we are dealing with.

The right side of the offensive line, except for the continuing excellence of Chris Kuper, has been a huge problem during the losses. Ryan Harris has been injured and Tyler Polumbus hasn't been able to step up fully in his absence until the Giants game. Daniel Graham seemed to be struggling to finish his blocks. In addition, I grew convinced that Russ Hochstein isn't the answer at guard before he played well on Thanksgiving and confounded me. The following two plays were a good indication of the problems as they stood. The plays ran back-to-back.

In the first one, Denver is lined up on offense with 5 down lineman and 4 receivers; Brandon Marshall is in the right slot. His safety, the man covering Marshall, releases to penetrate, going after Orton. Orton sees him and chooses his receiver quickly, accurately gunning it to Brandon. Marshall goes over the middle and makes the reception. However -- the safety ran square into Polumbus who missed the speed rush, letting the safety move easily past before he hurried Orton. The pass is still complete, but Polumbus got taken.

An illustration of just how bad the blocking had become came next, on a power running play Denver used toward to the end of the 1st quarter. The Broncos lined up the usual 5 OL, with Hochstein outside of Polumbus on the right side of the line and Graham on the outside of him to the right. Hochstein was essentially playing as an extra blocking lineman, as was Graham. This wasn't the kind of play that is designed to fool anyone: it was a simple, power run formation. It looked good, right up until the ball was snapped.

At the snap, Hochstein fired out of his stance and toward an OLB on the right as Orton took the snap and handed the ball to Knowshon Moreno. Unfortunately for Russ, his man simply stepped back and to the side. Hochstein went after him, and the end of the play saw him still literally chasing around behind the player who was not, happily, much in the play. Polumbus was keyed on James Farrior, ILB, who brushed him aside as you might a small child, knifing into the backfield. Polumbus fell flat on his face, Farrior reached Moreno in the backfield, almost untouched, and the play went for a loss of three.

There are a couple of obvious things to mention. I've rarely, if ever, seen a power run to the right that left two of our right-side lineman grasping at air, having failed to engage anyone at all that they were supposed to block. Polumbus knelt there on the ground and pounded it with his fist, but that's no substitute for doing your job. This wasn't the only play that left me leery of Hochstein, by the way - it seemed unfortunately obvious why he's been a backup for most of his career. In my own view, I'm sad to say that Tyler hadn't played well enough to even keep him as a backup in the offseason unless he improved rapidly. Of course, this changed greatly against the Giants and he had a very good game. That's been a pattern -- good O-Line play will win you games. Lacking it is an invitation to a loss. What's new?

A third example involved Ben Hamilton. Ben looked like a different player on the recent film. It's almost as if someone stole him in the night and left a changeling in his place, one who fooled everyone into believing that he's Ben. How bad was it? In the same quarter listed above, earlier on, the Broncos ran off-guard to the right. Hamilton was tasked with taking up a linebacker on the play. He easily got to the second level, made contact - and quit. He just stopped and let the player disengage. His man promptly ran over, following the run, and tackled Correll Buckhalter. Hamilton was immediately pulled for one play, with Hochstein taking his place. Unfortunately, Russ wasn't an improvement and Hamilton returned for the next play after, having received some loving personal instruction and attention from Rick Dennison. I've never known Hamilton to quit on plays before this season - something is obviously going on with him.

Think about it. Orton is hit on the first play. He made the completion anyway (Orton looked very good in that half) but it was touch and go whether he could get the pass off accurately within that narrow window. On the next play, Moreno never had a chance - Farrior had a perfect shot at him. On the third play, Buckhalter would have had a first down if Hamilton just finishes the play. Instead, the Steelers killed that drive. That was a pattern during the losses. Individuals didn't play well and the team couldn't get anything going.

I'm not claiming for a moment that we don't have other issues, and I'm going to talk about others over the next few weeks. The defense was also a problem, communication between Orton and the receivers left some points on the field, and there were plenty of other things to work on. It's just that the degree of problems with the offensive line were killing drive after drive, even when you had to look carefully to see why that's true. I had to run the plays over and over to spot every player, but once I did, the crux of the matter was too obvious to miss.

I also saw that plenty of people - far too many - made mental errors at critical times. To be honest, it's the NFL - any time is a critical time. A single mistake wipes out a 40-yard gain - is that critical? It is to me. The difference in the Giants game? For what it's worth, I think that it's not that they didn't make those errors - they still did. It was that once they had, they got it back on track and didn't keep on making them, while the Giants did. If they can keep that kind of aggressive spirit and increase their effective discipline, the Broncos can still compete in the playoffs.

Not-so Special Teams

In watching film, a pattern emerged that had hovered just at the edge of my consciousness. I've been listening to and reading about how the special teams play has been a problem and I fully agree. If you look at the overall results it's hard not to be concerned about this area of the Broncos. Many of the members had problems with bringing ST coach Mike Priefer on board, and I tend to agree. But the problem here, even so, can easily be deceiving. A pattern came to light that has no simple solution.

It's this: Our opponent gets the ball. We stop their drive, but they make it to about mid-field. They punt, and their punter is good at finding that 'coffin corner', pinning us back in our end of the field. Sure, you hope that Eddie Royal can break a few, but let's be real - Eddie is getting the ball with two players or more in his face. He's in a tight area, with defenders reaching him under the punt. We get pinned in the 10-20 if he catches the ball, maybe the 23 or so. It's on the 20 if it rolls into the end zone. We're looking at another long, tiring drive - if we're successful. If not, we're punting and the opposing team gets it at about the 30-to-40 yard line. then we do it all over again until the D is tired and/or we get scored on. I used to notice this with Shanahan's last few teams as well. It's a terrible habit to get into, since it assures that you will have the maximum problems scoring and will give the easiest time to the opponent.

And then came the Giants game and it all changed back, as mysteriously as it arrived. The Broncos suddenly woke up from an autumn nap, smelled the air and strapped on their helmets. They stopped them at their end of the field, created a little more room to run back punts and boomed punts that stuck the Giants back in their end of the field. Everything was different. In the end, the starting field position was Den: 30.20, NYG: 21.30 according to StatMaster TJ (Thanks for the aid, Your Dudeness). Seeing that showed why the difference was so stark.

If we look more at the starting field position, we really did get clobbered by BAL and PIT. After that, it was more about errors. Consider our starting field position over the past 5 weeks:

Week 8, Baltimore: 20.55

Week 9, Pittsburgh: 21.64

Week 10, Washington: 27.91

Week 11, San Diego: 29.60

Week 12, New York: 30.20

The Washington game, to me, was a matter of mistakes and the issue of Chris Simms - if we had Orton, I still think that we would have won, even with a poor performance by the D. Our field position was not that bad and we did score well. the lack of defensive discipline may have tipped the game in their favor. SD was a meltdown. Error compounding error, awful work by Simms, who will not return, Orton trying to play lame. We had decent position and lost it anyway.

Yet, with about the same position, we pounded on NYG. The difference was that we put together a comprehensive, complementary football game, with all sections doing "A" work. That's hard to beat. It sounds awfully simplistic, but this time, the solution was simple. Stop making egregious errors that kill drives or sustain the opponents' drives. If a mistake happens, overcome it with better play. Many times, how we responded to errors determined whether or not we won any given battle.

Throwdown, Elvis Style

Daniel Graham wasn't the only Broncos who's been engaged in throwdowns recently: What to make of Elvis Dumervil? With 5 games to go in the season, he's accumulated a career high and NFL-leading 14 sacks. Will the Broncos pay to keep him around? Count on it. I don't know any more than you about how they will deal with the uncapped year and the new CBA beyond that, but Doom will be a Bronco in 2010. Dumervil is already sixth all-time in the NFL in third-down sacks in a season. The record is held by San Francisco's Tim Harris, who had 11 third-down sacks in 1992 and Doom has 5 more games to pad that stat. When he finds the QB on third down, it does more than just give us back the ball. It changes the way the game flows. How will they pay him? Again - that's what Brian Xanders does. I've got a lot of faith in him. Gosh, why do you want a GM with a lot of cap experience? I couldn't believe it when I heard that in the offseason. The cap is a defender who will always be waiting to trip you up, year 'round.

When Doom is getting his sacks on any down the Broncos are almost impossible to beat. That's because when he's bringing the QB down, It also means that everyone else has tied up their guys or is bringing their own pressure. Good as he is, only when the team plays well does he do as well. His numbers are a tribute to Mike Nolan's job and the play of the front 7 in general. It was one of the huge differences in the losses and the wins. The play of the front 7 will always be essential to success.

Very few teams get a weapon like him, someone who can shut down the passing game in the 4th quarter and protect your win. Doom gets his sacks more often than not when the Broncos play aggressive defense, stay in their gaps and collapse the play. Usually, Doom places a move on a lineman while his cohorts are filling the lanes and gaps, giving the QB no place to run. Even though the number of sacks is a tribute to his talent and performance, he's getting there because the players next to him are doing a great job.

It comes up a lot when I talk to other football geeks: Disciplined gap defense wins games. I can't explain why the Broncos started trying to run around their blockers instead of taking them on and defeating them, but that was exactly what happened as they lost and it didn't change until Thursday. By moving back to gap control and discipline, they took on and overpowered blockers and showed the kind of performance that they can be proud of. Brandon Jacobs is a big load at running back but he was held to 27 yards on 11 carries. There were no gaps for him to exploit, leading to gang tackles and short yardage. That's the kind of defense that wins game.

If the Broncos maintain that gap discipline against the weaker KC line and Jamaal Charles they can shut down the run game and force Matt Cassel to beat them. If the secondary plays the kind of vicious, lockdown coverage that they showed last Thursday KC won't be able to keep up.

What else does gap discipline result in? Stopping the run on first and second down leaves a lot of third-and-long plays which plays into the Broncos' aggressive style and leads to chances for Doom and Co.

Rookies

There is a lot of talk about the Broncos' rookies in the game. Some fans are leaping to conclude that X player is or isn't a bust based on the 1st half of the season. That's something of a bizarre idea. Despite fan 'rules' about how anyone taken in the the top 10 or 15, or the 1st round, should be ready to come in and contribute immediately, that's a rare thing in the NFL. What you really hope for is that they find some ways to contribute the first season and that they play well over the course of the rest of their career. Anything else is 'gravy' so to speak.

Josh McDaniels isn't opposed to playing rookies who can contribute immediately, such as Moreno and Alphonso Smith. Even Knowshon has struggled as he has to learn a completely different style of running, reading and executing. From the early results, I suspect that he'll be fine but it's also fair to say that playing running back is less stressful mentally than playing cornerback, as an example. Then you get to the defensive line, where you really hope for a breakout in the player's 3rd or 4th year. Demanding too much from the rookies is a path to problems. Why? Rookies = mistakes.

It's not just in the NFL, either. Regardless of the sport, very few rookies contribute much. There's just too much to learn. Even those who play brilliantly in their first season, rare as they are, often suffer a diminishment in the second season, just as Eddie Royal and Ryan Clady have done. Why? It's a tough, fast, difficult game. Once other teams know what you do and what you struggle with, you're going to see a lot of hard situations that will challenge you in new ways.

This means exactly nothing over the course of the player's career; most players improve during their first few seasons. Much is made of the stat that the average player has about a 4-year career, but that stat takes into account the number of payers who don't stay after a single year. They are the undrafted or the badly drafted, those who just can't make the leap from college to the pros. I've never seen a breakdown of how the average is determined, and I'd like to. Because in general, those who do fairly well during their first year tend to be out there for a long time.

That's what we're going to see from some of our rookies. Knowshon Moreno, Alphonso Smith, Darcel McBath, Robert Ayers and David Bruton have all done some good things during their rookie season. I'm not going to get bent out of shape if they can't suddenly be brilliant - that's a rare thing in the NFL. But I do want to see flashes of why we wanted those men, and I have. The rookies are doing well. Give them time.

I have to note that we saw some fine performances from a lot of our 2009 rookies against New York. The draft class stepped up front and center last Thursday night and the list of contributors is long. Alphonso Smith had a big game - he made a couple of mistakes, but his overall performance was excellent and lends support to his draft status. David Bruton and Knowshon Moreno we've discussed; Bruton was brilliant and Knowshon gets better every game. I went back and saw more of Quinn on ST than I expected to. Robert Ayers also returned to the active roster after a week in which the Broncos believed that Jarvis Moss could contribute more for them; they were playing the odds because SD had troubles with speed rushers, and that fit Moss better than Ayers. Ayers had another good game against NY, though. McBath played well. The team has some great young players and they will contribute for seasons to come.

Knowing Knowshon Moreno

Speaking of great young players, I loved Knowshon Moreno's comments after the Giants game:

"Every week it's gonna be tough. The offensive line opened up those big holes for us and we just ran through them. We all looked out for each other."

Typical Knowshon. No arrogance, no personal preening, just a willingness to share the credit and to accept the blame. Given that he's also reputed to be a delight to coach and a pleasure to have around in the locker room, I'm thrilled that he's going to be a Bronco for a long time. Watching his TD run over and over, each time I'm sure that he'll be stopped short and each time he keeps the legs churning in classic form. He's up for Rookie of the Week again, too. Talented, gutsy player. Great draft choice.

Knowshon has been growing into this role on the team steadily and not that slowly, either. The only thing that has stood between him and a few 100-yard games is the fact that he's being rotated with Buckhalter, a runner whose contribution to the team is just as essential. 'Buck' is teaching Moreno during the week and making him more effective on weekends. Both runners block well and receive well and Buck even had a 41-yard kickoff return in the third quarter. That's exactly what a good team requires. I'd love to see a third back in the rotation, but that hasn't been important so far (knock on wood).

Knowshon's comments also bring out the same thing I mentioned above: The Broncos go as the lines go. When the O-Line is making three errors in the red zone, back-to-back-to-back, we are in serious trouble. When they get it together and blast open those holes, they're tough to stop.

By the way, check this from the denverbroncos.com:

During the last three weeks, rookie RB Knowshon Moreno has totaled the sixth-most rushing yards (265 / 88.3 ypg.) and the third-best yards per rush average (5.6) in the NFL. He leads all league rookies in rushing yards (688) and yards from scrimmage (784) this year.

To that end, I loved seeing Polumbus and Hochstein step up against NY. That's exactly what we need to see from them. Daniel Graham made a few bad errors, but he also blasted linemen and linebackers alike and he deserves a round of applause as well. The Giant's were holding him and trying to apply what looked like takedowns against him by the end of the game - he confounded them in high style. The running game will always be dependent on what happens in the trenches, including the TEs. Always has been, always will. Last week, they were the team that's very hard to beat. They need to take that anger that they seemed to tap into to KC. Decembers there are tough.

By the way, a big thank-you to Spencer Larsen and Tony Scheffler as well for their work against NYG. They each played a role in making this a complete-team win and blocked like demons in the running game. I can't think of a single area where the Broncos didn't dominate. The final stats seemed more respectable due to the vagaries of garbage time, but the fact was that NY was shut down and hammered flat.

Another player that deserves recognition is Wesley Woodyard. Woodyard has struggled recently, as did most of the defense, but he brought back his "A" game for the Giants. He was in the right place at the right time over and again, and even though he's very light as LBs go, he's doing a heck of a job on the nickel defense, hitting and making tackles. Nice going, WW. I hope that his neck injury is short-lived.

Orton and Learning

There's no way to deny it: I've been a Kyle Orton fan ever since I watched a lot of film on the man during the offseason. The more I saw of it, the more I liked him. Now that he's thrown with a brace on a right index finger that was mangled and played hobbled without excuse, he's impressed me. This is the second season in a row that he's played on a bad ankle and never complained; I'm starting to really like the man. He never, ever, blames anyone. He puts it on his own shoulders. If they're successful he talks about wishing that he had a couple back and about how well the team played. If they lose, he states baldly that everyone needs to step up more. There's no finger pointing, no nonsense. No fuss, no tantrums, no excuses. Expect to see a lot of Kyle over the next few years. I'm great with watching Tom Brandstater, by the way. If he can outplay Kyle, more power to him. I expect Brandstater to be 2nd string next season. But Orton? You have to go a long way to find a tougher QB. I love that in any player.

It's also worth noticing that we're starting to see more of the longer passes. Whether that's the playbook opening, players getting to know each other better, or taking what the defense gives us can be debated, but Brandon Marshall on a go route will scare a lot of defensive coordinators. He's not blazing fast but his ability to get to the ball is rare when he's playing like he did on Thursday. Orton said this, yesterday:

"He's the first guy that I've had like this. It's been a change for me in my way of thinking, being able to trust him and give him those chances. He's a phenomenal player, and I don't see too many people when the ball is in the air going out and out-jumping him or being more physical than he is going for the ball. You certainly want to put it in a good spot to give him the best chance go up and make a play."

What that tells me is that the early comments that Orton and the other players needed to get used to each other and the offense were right on, and kudos to the guys that caught it. I'm starting to see the defenses collapsing on the short and mid routes and Marshall taking the go route to counter and I love it. Those fans who called for more longer passes are getting their wishes fulfilled. The NY game showed us that this is still the team that started 6-0. They can win a wild card slot if they continue to play like that as the season winds down.

You can talk 'til Hades is endothermic, but Orton will be our starting QB next year. He will agree to a nice contract that will keep us cap-friendly and will give him a lot of financial security. That's exactly why we brought him in and why we brought Brian Xanders on board.

Orton has also improved every year that he's been in the pros. I'd say that you can look for that to continue, and that he's going to bring the rest of the offense with him. .

For Kicks

Here's a toast to Mitch Berger, the much-maligned punter who took over for the struggling Brett Kern a few weeks past. He managed 3 punts for 145 yards, an average of 48.3 yards per punt. I can't tell you why he seems to be improving, but that kind of performance can't be overstated. The punting game in the previous losses tended to the pattern I talked about earlier. By kicking longer and permitting good hang time, he let the coverage move down the field and do their jobs. They did - and a special thanks to MHR favorite David Bruton, who was tearing up ST on Thursday night. When we talk about young drafted players who are stepping up, I don't hear his name quite often enough. Give him a few years and he's going to be a heck of a safety, too, bringing that same intensity and talent for the big hit. I know that we talk about this safety and that one, and that's understandable. I'd love to have Eric Berry playing for the Broncos. But it's more likely that we won't, and we won't have a big dropoff if Bruton continues to develop the way that he has.

Berger wasn't the only one who knocked the laces off the rock, by the way. Matt Prater had a stellar night, bisecting the uprights on kick after kick and driving his kickoffs far back into the end zone. If they can't run it out, they won't have much of a runback. Domenik Hixon managed just two returns for 20 yards each for NY, while Prater was faultless on 4 field goals, with a long of 47 yards. Contrary to many concerns, he's shown no signs of fading as the season wears on. He won the AFC ST Player of the Week award, and he earned it.

"I think that's the best game I've ever had," said Prater. "It was perfect weather for kicking." Perfect weather for a dominating win, too.

Kansas City Here I Come

Want an unusual stat? Kyle Orton is still one of the best QBs in terms of home record in the past 3 decades. That's a heck of a stat, really, but it's not even the one I'm interested in. What interests me is that he plays even better on the road, whether his team might or not. Orton's home QB rating? 80.3, less than his overall average of 84.1. On the road, Orton is managing an 89.6 QB rating. That's one of the things that gives me a lot of confidence gong into the KC game this week: Orton has actually been better on the road.

KC can be a meat grinder at home - that's worse in December and I'll never discount that. The Steelers took them too lightly and were handed their hats with a defeat that could end up influencing their post-season standing. The Chiefs gave a heck of a tussle to Baltimore and beat the Redskins (who are coming on themselves, you might notice) and the Raiders. They are still a weaker team, but they have some pieces that are starting to fall together and their 3-4 is starting to play well. Jamaal Charles is a great addition to their team and Larry Johnson a great subtraction.

The Broncos will be well rested going into the game and they will have some extra time to gameplan. My sole concern is whether this squad is ready to keep on being angry and aggressive. If that happens, I believe that we'll have an eighth victory to celebrate, moving into the game against Indianapolis, but I expect this one to be hard-fought.

One thing I like about KC: Matt Cassel. I like the fact that he's working hard, making improvements, and that he's able to score some points if you give him some time. KC still doesn't have that great an offensive line and frankly, I'm shocked that the Steelers gave them so much time to throw -- it's not a mistake that Denver can afford to emulate. I'm glad that PIT did, though. It gives us a clear picture of what happens when you don't bring the intensity that the NFL requires to a game. My question is whether the Broncos can bring the kind of pressure that has won us some games. If so, we'll probably take this one.

There's a certain glow to a long week off after an excellent home win. Now, let's take it on the road...

Go Broncos!

Horse Tracks 11/19/09 - According to AP, Kyle Orton has torn ligaments in ankle

Douglas A. Lee — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:02:05 -0000

DB - Week 11 - Wed: McDaniels - Broncos TV

AP - Simms Gets The Reps, Orton Sits Out Practice - Arnie Stapleton
"The ligaments in Kyle Orton's left ankle are torn. He certainly isn't." WHAT?!?!?!?!

DPP - Broncos QB Orton hurting but hopes to play - Mike Klis
"His sore ankle — initially twisted two weeks earlier against the Baltimore Ravens — had not healed sufficiently to participate in practice."

DPP - Berger's net punting is Broncos' more important statistic - Lindsay Jones
"Elvis Dumervil has been credited with an additional half a sack in Denver's game at Washington, bringing his season total to 12...In addition to quarterback Kyle Orton, whose injured left ankle kept him sidelined, wide receiver Brandon Marshall (neck), running back LaMont Jordan (back), offensive tackle Ryan Harris (toe) and safety Josh Barrett (hamstring) did not participate...Rookie tight end Richard Quinn was yanked during a blocking drill against linebackers Wednesday and reprimanded for several minutes by position coach Clancy Barone."

DPP - Broncos in a rush to stop the run - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Q&A: Stokley no longer star receiver in Broncos' slot - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Broncos looking to buck disturbing late-season trend - Jeff Legwold
"They lost five of their last seven in 2006, lost four of the last six in 2007 and lost four of the last six last year, including the last three games of the season."

DB - Quarterback Quandary - Gray Caldwell

DB - Bringing a Backfield Presence - Chris Gentilviso
"Denver forced four fumbles in its 34-23 Week 6 win over San Diego...Since that Oct. 19 game, the Broncos have forced a total of two fumbles in their three losses to the Ravens, Steelers and Redskins."

DB - Week 11 - Wed: Orton - Broncos TV

DB - Week 11 - Wed: Dawkins - Broncos TV

DPP - Woody's Mailbag: Broncos broken down
"I give my opinion, which is based on sound information, thoughtful research and observation, unlike some kid in Arizona who is a Broncos fan and writes a blog, without proper grammar or punctuation or understanding, from his mom's laundry room and think he knows what he's talking about, and people actually pay attention."

"People tell me Robert Ayers is sensational. He has made one play." Funny, the "one play" Woody credits Ayers as having made is the one play where he probably just happened to be in the right place at the right time (the fumble return for TD).

"Also, if you have a quarterback who doesn't throw down the field (until the Washington game), cornerbacks cheat up; the defense can put a safety in the box, and the defensive line can sell out on the run." Hasn't it been established on MHR that in the Broncos' losses, the opposing defenses have gotten a rush out of their front 7, therefore not needing to keep two safeties deep bring up either of their safeties? Or was I imagining things?

CSG - McDaniels doesn't say what injured Orton's status is - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos won't devise different game plans for quarterbacks - Frank Schwab

CSG - Broncos, Chargers going opposite directions - Frank Schwab

CBS4 - Hnida: Hard To Assess Orton's Ankle At This Point

DPP - Numbers: Broncos-Chargers rivalry hits the century mark

KDVR - Chargers vs. Broncos Round II - Chris Tanaka

KDVR - Insider's Blog: Broncos Ryan Harris, Robert Ayers; Redskins Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts - Josina Anderson

Chargers News

SDUT - Tucker to IR - Kevin ACee

SDUT - Denver aware of Chargers' second-half surges

SDUT - Gamer Gates - Kevin Acee

AFC West News

KCS - Passing game must adjust to life without Bowe - Adam Teicher

KCS - Chiefs buzz: Brown AFC defensive player of the week - Kent Babb

SFC - The future is no longer now - Russell's out - David White

SFC - RAIDERS' FUTURE - Team extends lease at Coliseum 3 years - David White & Carolyn Jones

SFG - Raiders Silver and Black Blog : Cable on JaMarcus - David White

NFL News

NFL - Survey: Players hide concussions, despite fear of long-term effects

NFL - Brown lost for season with bad foot; Williams now Dolphins' top RB

NFL - Childress close to contract extension with Vikings

NFL - Doctors see improvement in Eagles' Westbrook after concussion

NFL - Jets safety Leonhard's status vs. Pats unknown after thumb surgery

NFL - Double whammy: Seahawks CBs Trufant, Wilson suffer concussions

NFL - Lions put S Manuel, CB Williams on injured reserve, add two players
Yes, that Manuel.

NFL Opinion

NFP - Tavern talk: Scoring too early can hurt - Mike Lombardi

SI - Saints, Colts remain on top - Don Banks

NFL - Let's get wild: Playoff races heating up heading into Week 11 - Steve Wyche

SI - NFL regular season would be fine if more games added - Ross Tucker

SN - Week 11 picks: Chargers surging for a Mile High pass - Vinnie Iyer

CBS - Sorry, Colts/Saints fans ... Super Bowl highly unlikely - Clark Judge

ESPN - More coaching firings likely on the horizon - John Clayton
"Certainly, the idiot -- that would be yours truly -- who said the Broncos would finish the season with a 3-13 record won't be overly critical about a team he miscalculated."

FOX - Week 11 Cheat Sheet: NFL picks and predictions - Peter Schrager

FH - Dirty Dozen: The Mysteries of Rankings - Dave Goldberg

FH - Steelers Kick Coverage Team May Break Records ... In a Bad Way - J.J. Cooper

FH - How Might Miami Replace Ronnie Brown? - Chris Burke

NYT - N.F.L. Week 11 Probabilities, and a Forecast for Jets-Patriots - Brian Burke

Y! - Disruptive behavior a winning formula route for Johnson - Charles Robinson

NFP - Wednesday whys: Concerns send Westbrook to specialists - Andrew Brandt

NFL - Lofty expectations have played into Ryan's sophomore struggles - Bucky Brooks

NFP - The NFP Super 30 - Wes Bunting

SN - Mock draft: Mays the solution for Giants' struggling secondary? - Russ Lande

Shanny/Bills/Browns

NFL - Shanahan likely to meet with Bills officials next week

DP - Memo to Shanny: Just say no to Buffalo - Jim Armstrong
I was stunned by this, too - at least Shanny is checking out all his options. Maybe he's bored and wants to get out of the house for a couple days?

NFP - Crank up the coaching carousel - Robert Boland

NFP - Diner morning news: No magic wand for Fewell - Mike Lombardi

NFP - Can Perry Fewell win in Buffalo? - Matt Bowen

NFL - Bills interim coach Fewell reinstates Fitzpatrick as QB, fires up team

NFP - Why Quinn should pay big for hit on Suggs - Matt Bowen

NFL - In trouble again: Quinn stumbles in second chance with Browns

Poll

Why do you think Mike Shanahan is going to meet with the Bills?

He's actually interested in the job

111 votes

Out of respect for Ralph Wilson

223 votes

Needs to kill a day or two

79 votes

I have NO idea

98 votes

511 votes | Poll has closed

MHR Chalk Talk - Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos MNF ('09, wk 8)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:57:29 -0000

Folks, this is the game I've been waiting for all season. There is an awful lot to look at between these two teams, and from a purely Xs and Os standpoint, this game should be a feast for football lovers.

The Steelers are the defending SB champions. Their young coach had to start under the shadow of a big name. This is a team that has excellent players in just about every facet of the game, and they are used very well by the coach.

The Broncos have emerged from a few years wandering the wilderness, and have a near perfect record. Their young coach had to start out in the shadow of a big name. Excellent players? Check. Great coaching? Check.

And this game will be on Monday night. Does it get any better?

Read on....

Offensive Postion Analysis

I'm going to break this week down a little differently than what we're used to. Let's start with my comparison of the teams' units.

QB - PIT

Let's face it; Kyle Orton is for real. His 95.5 rating is due in big part to a lack of INTs. In 7 games, he has 1 INT thrown on a "hail Mary" pass to close out a half. Orton makes his living in Denver by throwing screens, hitches, and curls. He is willing to throw the ball away or to take a sack rather than throw an INT. This looks ugly to many fans, but it demonstrates a style of play that isn't what Denver fans are used to. Gone are the "gamble and scramble" days. Orton doesn't gamble; he picks his targets or throws off. Boring? Yes. Effective? It wins games.

But "Big Ben" is an established QB, with a lot of good football behind (and ahead) of him. He does it all. Ben Roethlisberger can throw and run, and has experience up to and including the Super Bowl. His rating is 102.6

Ben gets that rating by completing his passes. Where Orton is at a career best 63.6 completion percentage, Big Ben is at 70.4. Both QBs are good at what they do, and Orton has been terribly underrated. But I have to give Ben the advantage here.

WR - tie

Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward are two big names in the NFL football ranks. While the Steelers have always been a tough, smash mouth team, they are airing out the ball this year. Holmes and Ward have been a big part of the 5-2 start. Both players are not only key in the pass game, but can get physical and run block as well. These guys present a solid 1-2 punch.

Denver isn't lacking either. Brandon Marshall has estabalished himself as a real star this year. Changing his mind on being a hold out, and (it is to be hoped) having put the off field issues behind him, Marshall has proven that he is a physical receiver who can run you over. Against the Cowboys though, he proved he can zig and zag through a defense too. Opposite Marshall is Eddie Royal, who garnered 2 returns for TDs in a game. A legit #1 receiver, Royal has speed and cuts that make him a deadly threat if he catches the ball in full stride. Denver's hidden strength is depth at WR, with route specialist Jabar Gaffney and smart / physical Brandon Stokley equaly deadly at the slot position.

TE - DEN

This is a tougher call than many Denver fans might think. Obviously, Daniel Graham is a monster blocker with good hands, and Tony Scheffler is a receiver in a TEs tough body. And yes, Richard Quinn is a tough blocking rookie. Yes, I'll take Denver. But don't be fooled, because Pittsburgh is loaded too.

Heath Miller is an excellent TE, as is Matt Spaeth. David Johnson can be brought in for a 3-TE look, and (in fact) I would call PITT one of three teams capable of playing 3 TE sets on a consistent basis this year if they wanted to. (DEN and NE are the other two, based on history with the formation and other factors).

I give Denver a slight edge here.

RB - DEN

You have to love Correll Buckhalter. Anyone who averages 6 yards per carry this far into the season is a keeper. His 18 receptions aren't shabby either. Rookie Knowshon Moreno has been getting his feet wet, and owns a 3.9 average.

Rashard Mendenhall is a power running back who has better speed and elusiveness than most power runners. His 5.4 average is very, very good. PIT could run the ball a lot more with this kid if they wanted to. The only criticism I've heard is that he can fumble the ball. He has two fumbles (both for losses) this year, but that's better than Moreno (3 fumbles - all lost) and tied with Buckhalter (also two fumbles, but lost one).

OL - DEN

The most notable issue for Denver is the loss of RT Ryan Harris. One of the best RTs in the League, he'll be missed this week. While I think Tyler Polumbus can hold his own against most teams, I respect the Steeler's defense, and TE Daniel Graham will likely need to be limited to Pass blocking duty to offset the loss.

Denver's other strength is LT Ryan Clady, who is arguably one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL today, and still young. And while Ben Hamilton and Chris Kuper are both very good at what they do, Center Casey Wiegmann is the real anchor in the middle of the OL.

Denver's only weakness on the OL is the lack of power for short yardage. Denver seems to be asking the athletic and agile lineman to assist with power runs up the gut, something they aren't built for. As the season has worn on, Denver has gotten further from their zone blocking tradition. For what it is worth (and in the eyes of Denver's coaching staff, it isn't going to be worth anything), I think Denver needs to get back to the ZB. If Denver wants to transition into a typical run blocking scheme, then they should at least play to the current strength of the OL players. The ZB is always run as a short yardage play, with the very real possibilty that it will break open. Right now, we don't have the bodies to support dives and slams.

On the other hand, if PIT has a weakness, I think it is the OL. Big Ben has been sacked 20 times this year, and faces a terrific pass rush from Denver. I think the OL is improving, but they have a ways to go.

Offensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 23.9 (14th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 383 (6th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 276 (5th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 107 (19th)

Folks, we need to wake up and smell the coffee. We are not in the top ten in any single offensive category I've listed. There is no room for Orton bashing. It is clear that Orton is doing his job, and doing it well. A QB rating in the 90s means a good QB, and we've seen what our receivers can do. We are also over 100 yards per game rushing, which is the classic standard. But we have some things to address, and we need to move fast.

First, we need to fix our short yardage issues in the running game. Next, we need to start getting TDs. A 6-1 record is a good thing, and each of our players are doing a good job. But if we are going to make the playoffs, we will need to be able to put up more points.

I wrote in last weeks article that Denver is NOT a shoot out team. We have come back from poor 1st halfs all year, but we can't rack up points if the opposing team decides to make the game high tempo. It was a major key for Baltimore last week, and they executed. Like NE, Denver likes to accumulate small advantages and chip away at the other team, winning close if neccassary. But Denver needs to be more like NE in another respect; Denver needs to be able to run up scores when needed.

At this point in the season, Denver has a cushion to find out what the problems are (6-1). But we'll need to see some adjustments quickly. Coach McDaniels has proven that he can make adjustments during half time. Now we need to see if he can make adjustments over the course of a season, which is a completely different skill set for a coach.

PITT has the better QB, and the better passing game. PITT's only concern is the OL, but that is a big concern. I think PITT's running game could be better if they committed to the run, but they haven't needed to. If we were comparing offenses, I would give the advatage to PITT. They beat us in everything except running the ball. But folks, we don't compare the same units (off vs off). We compare offenses to defenses. Before we do that, let's look at the defenses so that we'll know what to compare.

Defensive Position Analysis

We have two great defenses lining up this week, and this is a real treat for fans of defense. I love the Iron Curtain almost as much as I love the Orange Crush. This year, both units are in elite form.

DL - PITT

Just how good is the PITT DL? Consider this. Aaron Smith goes down for the season. Losing a starting DE is a rough thing to deal with. Then his back-up goes down for this week (Travis Kirschke). Does PITT panic? Not at all. Ziggy Hood and Nick Eason step into the gap without missing a beat. Like Denver, PITT is ok with rotations on the line, and they have depth.

Denver (on the other hand) may not see Ryan McBean at LDE this week (LDG if you consider the DEnver defense to be a true 5-2). This is a bigger problem for Denver. Denver rotates the line too, but I wouldn't yet put the defensive line in PITT's league. I'm not saying that the Denver DL isn't good by any stretch. I'm just saying that we are great, but PITT is excellent.

OLBs - DEN

I don't care if we call them DEs or OLBs, but Denver is stacked at the position and can rotate all day long.

One guy to keep in place is Elvis Dumervil. With 10 sacks for the season, you can bet that PITT is scheming to stop him. Playing at RDE (ROLB), Doom is a sack master who uses his low center of gravity and long wingspan to out-judo his opponents in the bull rush, and uses speed and agility to get around blockers when rushed wide.

Denver can sprinkle in Mario Haggan, Darrell Reid, and Robert Ayers to stay fresh. (Watch for PITT to counter with the no-huddle. More on this later).

At ILB, Denver has Andra Davis, who has been rejuventated playing in Denver. Davis uses strength and leverage to get his way. To his right, D.J. Williams continues to be the anchor for the LBs. His skill set is based more on speed and agility, but he is as tough as nails and not a light LB. Even back-ups Spencer Larsen and Wesley Woodyard are dangerous when put on the field.

PITT also has an excellent LB corps. There is some concern about whether Lawrence Timmons (RILB) will be able to play on Monday. I expect him to show up, and to play 100%. Like talking about the DL, I may sound like I'm putting down a unit because I pick the other. Not so. Both teams have great DLs, and I gave the edge to PITT. Both teams have great LBs, but I'll give the edge to Denver.

CBs - DEN

Some folks will find fault with the PITT CBs. Not me. Ike Taylor is a good CB, and so is William Gay. Both are fundementaly sound, underrated, and a terrific tandem. (Watch Ike for blitzes. He is one of the best blitzing CBs in the League. If he doesn't get to the QB, he still typicaly causes hurry ups. He may be moved between left and right CB as well).

However, they are nothing near Champ Bailey and Andre' Goodman. Bailey is going to the Hall of Fame some day, and Goodman is playing better ball in Denver than in Miami. In fact, he's doing it even though he's going to get a lot of throws his way when QBs avoid Bailey.

And while Jack Williams is ill, Denver does fine with rookie Alphonso Smith playing at nickle.

SAF - DEN

Both teams have excellent safeties. Denver has the player that revolutionized the safety position - Weapon X - Brian Dawkins. Older? Yes. Depleted? Not yet. Dawkins is tearing up the field for Denver by being in on most plays and keeping the defense fired up. He is the leadership this defense has been missing. Next to him, Renaldo Hill (like CB Goodman) has come to Denver and is playing better football. Together, these two safeties have been amazing. Their back-ups would be worth writing about, but many are injured (Josh Barett and David Bruton). Rookie Darcel McBath has the potential if he is needed.

But PITT has Troy Polamalu at Safety, and he's a beast. Don't let the shampoo comercials and the soft voice fool you. Troy is one of those safeties that can do it all - hit, tackle, intercept, disrupt, and cover. He is arguably one of the top five (if not number one) safeties in the League, along with Dawkins and Reed. He's coming off of an injury, but expected to play.

The big news this week is Ryan Clark at free safety. Because of a rare blood disorder, Clark should not be playing in Denver's altitude. My heart goes out to the guy, as there is talk he may not even be allowed to make the trip.

STs - DEN

You didn't think I'd give STs their own section did you? Of course not.

Ok, there may be reason to worry about Prater. Read more from MHR member OrangeandBlue27 here. And we just switched out punters, didn't we? But PITT has the kick and punt coverage that Denver must have had last year. PITT has given up 3 TD on STs in the last 3 weeks. Royal has been know to get two TDs on returns in one game.

Defensive Overview

Denver's rankings - stats and (rank) Pittsburgh's rankings - stats and (rank)

Avg pt.s per game - 13.7 (2nd) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 266.7 (1st) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 180.6 (8th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 86.1 (3rd) 76.6 (1st)

I'm hearing a lot about the almighty Steelers defense this week. Let's give credit where credit is due. Pittsburgh has a great defense. But Denver beats Pittsburgh in every category but one, where Denver still manages a third best in the League ranking. Another stat to throw in - Denver allows 1/3 of opposing 3rd down conversions (33.3%), while PITT is allowing 43.3%.

In sum, both teams should stop the run this game. That much is clear. But how do the units match against there opposite numbers? What about the systems, the plays, and the head to head match ups?

~~~

Pre-Game Analysis

Strategic

Denver is 6-1. SIX AND ONE! They are at home on a Monday night, and except for one key injury, are all on the field. Pittsburgh is 5-2, including a close loss to CIN (a team Denver beat) and CHI. Both loses were close, so PITT is pretty darned close to being unbeaten themselves. I'll grant that. But 6 and 1 is nothing to sneeze at. Unless you are a sports writer (more on that in a moment). PITT may be missing some players, and others are coming off of injuries. Still, PITT had a bye week to rest and prepare.

I love the media. I really do (not). Some of my favorite things I've read this week include a ridiculous story about how accurate those Vegas guys are, knowing to pick against an undefeated Denver team and to go with Baltimore. Nice. Don't bother mentioning that Denver is 6-1, despite Vegas being wrong in six of those games (Denver was only favored one time). Another article (I won't mention John Clayton by name) buys into the mantra that Orton has a weak arm. Yet another claims that the Ravens and the Steelers have similar defenses. They're both physical, and both play a lot of 3-4, but the Ravens have been playing the 2 gap Fairbanks-Bullough system, while the Steelers have been playing the Lebeau Zone Blitz.

The minute Denver loses "one" game, the doubters came out (as predicted by many at MHR). All of a sudden, we are a team preparing to enter a death spiral. All of a sudden, we're not as good as we thought we were.

As of today, factoring in tie breaks, Denver is the number two team behind unbeaten Indianapolis in the AFC. In the NFL, Denver ranks as the fourth best team (Saints and Vikings are 2nd and 3rd).

Not enough for you? Denver has beaten the 5th, 6th, and 7th best teams in the NFL (CIN, DAL, and NE). One game is not the end of this team. In fact, a loss at this point in the season (while not prefered) gives the team better film to study. There isn't as much to find on film from a win, but a loss provides much room for analysis and growth for a good team. Rather the loss now than in the playoffs.

Let's not sell PITT short. As I mentioned earlier, their only two losses were close ones, and this team has star power.

But certainly don't sell Denver short. Denver has a 6-1 record against teams with an average winning percentage of .510 (opposing teams combined for 26-25 record). That beats PITT's opponents, who have a losing average. Those opponents are at .451 (a combined 23-28). More amazing is to factor in that Denver's opponents have a better record than PITT's, despite the fact that each of Denver's opponents had to play "Denver", who gave 6/7ths of those teams a loss (compared to PITT, who handed out losses to 5/7ths).

In other words, we have two very, very good teams on the field. A lot of folks are nervous because Denver has lost one game. But over the course of this season, Denver has played better ball and has a better record and stats to show for it.

Let's revisit the comparisons between rankings, but look at offensive vs defensive match-ups.

Denver Offense PITT Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 20 (20th) 18.4 (7th)

Yards avg per game - 344.6 (14th) 291 (8th)

Pass avg per game - 221.4 (16th) 214.4 (16th)

Rush avg per game - 123.1 (11th) 76.6 (1st)

On offense, we see that PITT beats us relatively in every category but one (the pass game), where we rank even. Now let's look at how PITT does on offense.

PITT Offense Denver Defense

Avg pt.s per game - 23.9 (14th) 13.7 (2nd)

Yards avg per game - 383 (6th) 266.7 (1st)

Pass avg per game - 276 (5th) 180.6 (8th)

Rush avg per game - 107 (19th) 86.1 (3rd)

Here, we beat PITT in every category but one. Again, it is the pass game that is different. Here PITT beats us. So relative to how each team has played so far (as measured in rankings), DEN wins in 6 stats, PITT wins in 7, and the teams tie in another.

The margin in the difference in rankings over all favor PITT by 29 "ranking points" when we have the ball, and favor Denver by 20 When PITT has the ball. On the other hand, Denver's defense is 32 points better than PITT's defense, while PITT's Offense is only 17 pts better than Denver's.

The key is the actual points on the score board at the end of the game, and this is where efficieny comes in. Remember the stat I mentioned about third down conversions? It comes into play when we look at teams moving the ball down the field. Even though PITT averages about two more minutes in time of possession, Denver runs the ball better, even though both teams are near each other in terms of rushing defense. While PITT is likely to stop Denver on the ground, they'll have a harder time stopping the Denver running game relative to Denver stopping PITT's 19th ranked run game. The pass offenses and defenses are very close for both teams, and is a wash.

Tactical

I see three approaches for the Steelers on offense this week.

No huddle scheme
Run heavy scheme
Passing attack

Those are over-simplifications, but they'll make the points easier to understand.

First, the no huddle looks good on paper. Every one from Clayton to Big Ben are advocating it for this week. I see some problems with this approach. First, this game isn't in Baltimore, it is in the Mile High city. Assuming that Denver is conditioned to the altitude (metabolic levels, etc), does PITT really want to level the playing field between the defense and offense in terms of endurance? The way to beat a defense at altitude is to win time of possession by keeping the defense on the field. You do that with no-huddle, but the higher tempo leads to a change of possesion quicker (whether from a turnover, score, or inability to convert a down). Why not just keep the ball, and move down the field consistently? Besides, Denver has almost certainly devoted a lot of practice hours to adjusting for the no huddle in light of last week's game.

The second approach is to run the ball more. I this approach much more. PITT hasn't been winning games on the ground, they've done it in the air. Folks might argue that the low ranking in average run yards is because of a lack of commitment to the run, and this is true. But against the third best run defense in the League, why not give the ball to your star QB, or at least strike a balance?

The passing attack may be the way to go. The best players on the offense are arguably at QB and WR, and this has been working for PITT. The question is, can the OL protect Ben? Denver has a great sack scheme, and PITT'S OL isn't the best right now. Ben can take hits, and can throw on the run. He's a big, fast player in the mold of an Elway.

For Denver, they need to throw the ball. The run has been under utiized by PITT, but despite Denver's decent individual stats, Denver just isn't tearing teams apart with the run game. Together, the run and the pass have moved the ball down the field for Denver, but not created a lot of points in quick strikes. This will beat most teams, but won't win shoot outs. In fact, if Denver hope to beat INDY in Dec, they had better learn how to put up points on every long drive OR put up points quickly on most drives.

In a surprise twist, I wonder if McDaniels feels that Orton can handle a no huddle or two? This would be the game to bring it out. You can beat a physical defense at altitude with a good no huddle.

Denver needs to keep their TEs in to block this game. PITT's zone blitz is formidable, and two TEs are the standard counter to a 3-4. Graham (TE) in particular will be needed to assist the right side of the line in pass blocking with the Harris missing at RT. I don't expect many passes to TEs in this game. If Orton uses a safety valve, it will likely be a running back.

Expect bump and run from the Steeler CBs, but coverage to be over the top. Expect the safeties of PITT to play the pass more than the run in deep zone. LBs and DLs will take turns in zones and rushing the passer in the typical zone blitz manner. I expect the PITT defense to do a good job shutting down the run.

Expect the Denver defense to play off or on coverage, but not tight. The Denver CBs will play underneath in most match-ups. While one Denver ILB zones the middle, mans the RB, or blitzes, the other ILB will take one of the other two assignments. The OLBs (DEs) will rush or zone.

PITT will vary their offense, presenting 2 TE sets, I forms, and 3 receiver sets. I don't expect Denver to use a FB, so expect 2 TE or 3 WR sets.

Keys to the Game

Denver

Denver lost last week when they let the Ravens get after Orton. Denver's OL must hold.
Denver lost last week when they let the game turn into a shoot out. They probably can't run against the Ravens very well, but too many passes may lead to a shoot out. Denver needs to complete a lot of intermediate and short passes, get into a rhythm, and move the ball consistently and slowly (this will also tire the PITT defense).
Ben is a terrific QB. But he makes mistakes. If the pass rush can reach Ben (and it should against the Steeler's OL), an elite secondary has the chance to make key INTs. Rush Ben, and don't drop those INTs.

PITT

Win time of possesion. If you want to win in the altitude (something PITT hasn't done much of), you need to keep your defense off of the field. Try the no-huddle if you want to, but keep the oxygen handy for your guys on both sides of the ball.
Challenge with the run game. If Mendenhall can match his terrific YPC average, run down the Broncos. At worst, it doesn't work and you still have a great passing game. But try the run out.
Don't kick to Royal. You're better off kicking out of bounds on punts.

This game could go either way. For every stat that favors one team, another stat counters it. PITT is a more physical team, and a more balanced team. Denver has the better defense. Perhaps the Baltimore game has helped to prepare Denver for the Steelers.

This will be a great Monday Night Football encounter. I like Denver at home, with the better record against a tougher schedule in the first 8 weeks (7 games). For that reason, I don't understand PITT getting 3 points in Vegas. Still, PITT is no joke, and I'm not fully confident with picking Denver. The reason? While we have a SB caliber defense, our offense is "just" doing well. It needs to play much better than that if we are going to beat the many types of teams we'll be playing this year. We rank in the bottom half of the League in passing yards per game and points. The points stat really stands out.

Good teams lose ball games, but they lose close (as PITT has). Yes, we had one loss, but it wasn't close. An inability to dominate is the problem. Good teams "find a way to win". That's what we've been doing. Great teams dominate, and we have yet to do that.

This week, I'm confident that the Steelers come in with a good game plan and players ready to execute. I know the Denver players will be fired up (or Dawkins will be kicking butts in the locker room). What I'm looking forward to seeing is how McDaniels adjusts to a loss. I've already bought in to the McDaniels way, and I'm hoping that he's on top of this aspect of coaching too.

Denver wins (fingers crossed and nervous as Hell).

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MHR Chalk Talk -- Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (Wk 3, '09)

Steve Nichols — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:30:17 -0000

(Author's note - This is Breast Cancer Awareness month for the NFL, and that is why you'll see the color pink around the NFL. If you are one of MHR's wonderful ladies that frequents this site, PLEASE consider getting a mammogram and learn how perform a self exam. If you are a one of the many men that calls MHR home, pester your wife, mother, girlfriend, or - if you're old enough - your daughter to get checked. Breast cancer can be beaten if it gets caught early enough. See your doctor about low cost and even free options that are available.)

Denver fans have been delighted at the play of their team. While many outsiders have made an issue of the turbulence during the off-season, new head coach Josh McDaniels seems to have done everything that has been asked of him.

First, his new QB has protected the football. Gone are the interceptions of yesteryear, and with a solid QB rating in the 90s, Kyle Orton (playing with a restrictive glove to protect an injury) has silently flown under the radar. He has distributed the ball amongst several receivers, TEs, and even RBs in the passing game, leaving opposing teams to wonder if they should cover "the stars" or anything that moves. Here's a great stat I picked up from ESPN -

Kyle Orton became only the fourth quarterback during the NFL's expansion era (that is, since 1960) to win his first three starts for a team, throwing at least one touchdown pass and no interceptions in each game.

Second, new names at RB haven't disappointed. A few weeks ago, fans would have panicked at the prospect of missing Peyton Hillis to an injury. Correll Buckhalter is a candidate for ground player of the week at NFL.com (vote for him here), and despite some injury issues, rookie Knowshon Moreno is improving each week to show off his 1st round potential.

And least, but far, far, far from least is the improved play at defense. Future Hall of Famers Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are deadly to opposing offenses, but the secret in the secondary (unless you read MHR, because we knew it all along) is that Renaldo Hill and Andre Goodman are not just your average DBs - they're outstanding. As if that isn't enough, the defensive front seven are wreaking havoc. Elvis Dumervil alone is averaging 2 sacks per game, and even the recently lauded Cincy Bengals couldn't put a dent in the Broncos' defense.

But it is the same old story. Instead of being allowed to enjoy one of the best starts Denver has had in a long time, there are some who want to tarnish the shine. They point out that Denver hasn't "played anybody". Many of those same folks rate Denver below the Bengals (the team that Denver beat), and laud the Bengals as being a surprisingly good team. Those same folks praise other teams who have beaten the same teams we have. The only way to get respect in the NFL is to win games, but that doesn't seem to be enough for the Broncos.

So Denver needs this game, to beat a worthy opponent, to get respect. Perhaps. I'm thinking Dallas needs it more. If Dallas wins, the media will give them credit for beating a solid Denver defense. If Dallas loses, the talking heads will immediately proclaim that Dallas wasn't a contender from the start.

But we don't care what "they" say. We know this is a fair test. Denver is at home, Dallas is coming off of a short week after playing on MNF, and we realize that nobody is really going to put Dallas in the same category as Oakland or Cleveland (at least, not before the game). So here we go; Denver's first real test. We've had the time and games to get up to speed, and we've performed very well. Let's see how we do in a game that many folks would call us underdogs in. Dallas isn't a great team, but they certainly aren't a bad team. Let's take a look at how both teams match-up, and try to figure out what may happen at the quarter mark of the 2009 season for Denver....

Injuries

Some quick notes on injuries.

Dallas has a three-headed monster with their running game. Of the three, Felix Jones looks like he won't be playing on Sunday. Marion Barber was limited in practice (at the time of this writing), and is nursing a thigh injury that might keep him from playing. If he does play, he might not be 100%. Tashard Choice may get a lot of touches this game. On defense, pass rushing great Demarcus Ware is very probable for the game. Playing at weakside LB in the Dallas 3-4, Ware is a threat whenever he gets on the field (though he hasn't garned a sack yet this season).

Dallas is one of those teams that has entered the modern era of RBs, using a committee approach. This was wise, as even the loss of one (and possibly two) RBs shouldn't hurt them. The key injury for Dallas would be Ware, but as I wrote earlier, it looks like he will play.

On the Denver side of things, Hillis is questionable at RB, but Denver shouldn't miss a beat with the rotation of Buckhalter and Moreno. Without Spencer Larsen, the STs coverage unit will be missing a key component. There's no definitive word yet on Ben Hamilton and Ryan Harris on the OL. Both are key players, and Denver may have to rely on depth to fill some holes. WR Brandon Stokley was a concern early in the week, but now looks probable. So far, the Ameoba philosophy protects Denver from some key injuries (because there are really no weaknesses behind our starters).

The key concern may be nickle back Alphonso Smith. His ankle injury kept him from practice on Wed, and he needs that ankle to be in perfect shape to do the two things CBs need to be able to do - run fast and make quick turns. I'm not hopeful that Smith will be 100%, and that means either moving up CB Jack Williams or one of the back-up safeties. More on this later.

Now, onto the match-ups. There are so many great pairings in this game that it is hard to know where to start at.

Denver offense vs. Dallas defense

Dallas has been solid against the run against two teams that can run the ball well (NYG and CAR). Denver can go up the middle against a stout defense that plugs the gaps and creates opportunities for the LBs, or they can go wide and face the wide aligned OLBs. Denver is a solid running team, still using the zone block, and features two RBs this week that can trade off running time. This is as close to an even match-up as it gets.

Denver's run game is good, and so is the pass. But Denver's bread and butter is the run. Orton only needs to protect the ball and take opportunities as they present themselves. With the intricate screen passes that Denver plays, Orton can make the easy pass, then let the receiver and his blockers do the rest. But the run game makes it all work. The run game means possession time, it means keeping opposing offenses off of the field, and it means a lack of turnovers.

Denver would much rather play a running attack against the Cowboys. If the running game fails, it is all up to Orton. Orton has proven that he's better than the naysayers think, but we haven't yet seen him in a shoot out, and we really don't want to go that route unless we have to.

The Dallas secondary is an enigma. On the one hand, they have a lot of talent. Safety Ken Hamlin is at double the League average for tackles with 14. Terence Newman is a dangerous threat at #1 CB. And Mike Jenkins and Orlando Scandrick are both neck and neck in a battle for the #2 CB position (Jenkins will start this week). Like Denver, they have a #2 quality CB playing at nickle. In other words, Denver can bring out their depth at WR, and (unlike many teams) Dallas can counter with depth at CB.

On the other hand, this good secondary is giving up a lot of deep passes.

Orton has shown some flashes with deep passes (though he's been accused of not having a strong arm). Orton may brush the defense back with some deep throws to support the running game, and catch Dallas off guard. If Denver sells the run, those deep passes may amount to yards or points. If the running game bogs down, they'll be a gamble that pays off or costs dearly.

Watch for both teams to use their TEs a lot. Denver will rely on the TEs (especialy Daniel Graham and Richard Quinn) to help with the run blocking, but the threat is that they can break into routes at any time. Dallas is talented enough to cover Graham and receiving TE Tony Scheffler, but the key will be knowing if the TEs are supporting the run or going out. This is a guessing game that should cost Dallas on plays here and there.

Denver's OL injuries might be a factor. Fortunately for Denver, Ryan Clady is at LT, facing Ware. Analysts will argue over whether last year's sack master is better or worse than the LT who didn't give up a sack last year, but at least in run blocking, Clady should have a clear edge against the line and against Ware in the second level.

When Denver's offense is on the field, the TEs will be key. Even if they don't get the ball much, the threat that they might, and their skills in the blocking game will be key.

Dallas offense vs. Denver defense

As mentioned earlier, the Dallas running game can power along even with out one or two starting RBs. All three RBs are legit starters, and the Dallas OL is big and effective. Like Denver's offense, they face a very tough defense.

Dallas is the top running team in the League. They favor power running, and love to run at their opponents. If Denver can stop the Dallas running game, they can stop anybody's running game. Like Denver, the key to winning for both teams is the running game.

Looking at this game, perhaps the two most intriguing players are OC Andre Gurode (a 315 pound, 6'4 big guy who went to Colorado) and TE Jason Witten. If, like a lot of folks, you don't watch the trenches, you'll be missing a treat if you don't watch Gurode match wits and muscle with NT Ronald Fields. If Gurode handles Fields, the run game is half won for Dallas.

But in the passing game, Witten is more key than QB Tony Romo and his receivers combined. Not to take anything away from a good receiving corps, but Denver's secondary is beyond elite. But Witten poses a clear and present danger in more than one facet of the passing game.

First, the 5-2 look that Denver presents is like all other formations and systems - there are weaknesses. Covering the TE presents a lot of choices, and each has risks. First, Denver's true LBs are at ILB (inside linebacker). The two outer "OLBs" are really DEs, both in alignment and even playing history. Neither DE/OLB is a match for Witten, and the two ILBs are too far away (and aligned to stop the interior run we can expect from Dallas).

Second, Denver covers the WRs with a layered defense of extreme quality defensive backs. If one of those backs (Hill or Dawkins) goes into man coverage on Witten, this leaves the deep field exposed. Denver doesn't have as great of an option if they go with a nickle formation to cover Witten, since Alphonso Smith is out.

If the seams and slots are the weakness of the 5-2, Witten (who is Romo's best target) should eat Denver alive. Denver will adjust, but the adjustment will cost them from another sector of the game.

Keys to the Game

Denver -

Be effective running the ball. Denver may be a shoot-out team, and may be able to fly down the field. But nobody has seen that yet, and we don't want to find out.
Score first. Both teams would love to play a ball control, clock control game. The team that scores first forces the other team to weigh a more risky gameplan.
Special teams must help with the field position battle. With both teams duking it out in the trenches for every yard, gains on punts and kicks could be key for getting a team in FG range. Denver is missing Larsen, the lead tackler in Denver's STs coverage units.

Dallas -

Use Witten. Denver is already planning on how to contain Witten, but he remains the best option for Dallas in the passing game.
Protect Romo. Romo can make mistakes when he is getting pressured, and Denver has been bringing a lot of pressure. Stopping Dumervil is crucial.
Forget the zone. Denver WR Brandon Marshall tore up the Oakland LBs in the middle of the field with some quick slants. The Dallas CBs should man their WRs and test Orton.

Conclusion

Denver is much better than a lot of talking heads think. Dallas won't rely on the media for their take on Denver - they'll study the film and prepare for a hard fought game. Denver is also aware that they face a quality team this week. Both teams will bring their "A" game. But who will win?

Denver needs this game if they want to even think about the playoffs. I'm not one to agree with ESPN's Bill Williamson much, but I'm going to give him the credit for his thoughts in this piece...

...What’s ahead: We’re going to find out if Denver is a contender or a pretender in the coming weeks. Denver faces top teams in eight of its next 10 contests. It also plays at Philadelphia in Week 16. Denver's next five games are at home against Dallas and New England and on the road at San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Games against the New York Giants and Indianapolis also loom. I guess the 1972 Dolphins and 1985 Bears were busy. This is a tough stretch and the Broncos know it. But Denver is confident, well-prepared and McDaniels knows a lot about playing in pressure games. The team is healthy and it feels like it can navigate this stretch competitively.

Realistic outcome: It is very difficult to expect the Broncos to run through this schedule without difficulty. But early success gives Denver some breathing room. If Denver goes 5-5 in the next 10 games it will be 8-5 and probably in the playoff mix heading to the stretch run. Denver has to keep winning at home and steal a couple of road games. It has to take advantage of its two remaining games against Kansas City and its home game against Oakland. Denver can’t stumble in winnable games. If Denver can stay healthy, I think it can stay in the race. This doesn’t look like a team that will fall apart. I think it will only get better under McDaniels. Realistically, the Broncos can be a factor in the playoff race.

Denver made their early season mistakes in the pre-season, and is already looking like a team in mid-season form. They are at home, and playing an opponent that matches with them pretty evenly. Denver has beaten two teams that aren't contenders (Oak and Cle) and one team that is also surprising the League (Cincy). Dal has gone toe to toe with quality teams, win or lose.

This one is at home, and both teams have some injury concerns.

Coaching - Den

Running - Dal (not to take from Denver, but Dal leads the League)

QB - Den (not to take away from Romo, but no INTs and at least 1 TD per game for Orton)

Receivers - Den

TEs - Den (in depth, but Witten is more likely to be a game changer based on match-ups)

OL - even (taking into account injuries to Harris and Hamilton. Clady remains a rock star)

DL - even

LBs - even

CBs - Den

SAFs - Den

STs - Den

You could look at the list and say that Denver is better in more categories, but that would be too simplistic. For example, Denver has three terrific TEs, but Witten is a game changer. Denver has more and better CBs, but Smith is questionable for the game. Can Denver's STs perform without leading tackler Spencer Larsen? They still have K Matt Prater, the AFC special teams player of the month.

Before the season started (in fact, well before the pre-season), I predicted that Denver could win the first two games, and would win one game against Oakland with the other game being a toss-up. (Fortunately, we won the away game, increasing our odds of a sweep). Against Dal, I think I had us at 50/50. Denver is doing what I thought they would - play better as a team, regardless of record. Their play is so much better, in fact, that while I'm sticking with my 8-8 prediction for now, I think DAL is one of those toss-up games that goes to Denver.

I'll give the edge to Denver at home. Dallas has looked very good, but has had some bad moments. In fairness, they've played some teams that are pretty good (at least they were last year). Denver has been consistent. Oakland should have been easy, and Cleveland only a little less so. But Cincy has been looking very good, and Denver walked over them. (No, there was no miracle pass. There WAS a good play on a tipped ball by Brandon Stokley, as well as an earlier TD reception that "miraculously" didn't happen because Denver's WR tripped).

Denver has only given up 5.3 points per game on avg so far this year, and that's a darned good stat against any three teams in the NFL. I'll take Denver in a close one.

Horse Tracks 9/30/09 - NFL study shows higher rate of dementia in former players; status of Hamilton, Harris unknown; A. Smith unlikely

Douglas A. Lee — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 11:45:19 -0000

NYT - Study Indicates Higher Rate of Dementia in Former N.F.L. Players - Alan Schwarz
This is scary stuff with far-reaching implications. Folks, make sure your kids know the dangers associated with concussions. It's not about being tough; it's about keeping your brain intact and functioning into old age...

DB - Gearing Up For a Ground Game War - Patrick Smyth
Fun facts from the weekly press release.

DPP - Broncos' schedule takes turn for tougher starting with Cowboys on Sunday - Mike Klis

DPP - Mailbag: Denver brought in the right new players - Mike Klis
"Andra Davis, cornerback Andre' Goodman and safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill...replaced Nate Webster, Dre' Bly, Marquand Manuel and Marlon McCree." Wow. Never looked it all those names side by side.

DPP - Broncos defensive backs coach lauds his veterans - Jeff Legwold
Sounds like Alphonso Smith is unlikely to play Sunday. Ben Hamilton and Ryan Harris are nursing injuries and their status is unknown. Ryan Torain worked out for the Dolphins, while Kory Lichtensteiger was waived by Minnesota.

CSG - Broncos are actually chameleons - Frank Schwab
Pardon the look ahead, but I wonder how much of a chess match the game versus Belichick and Co. will be...

PFW - Week Four matchup tidbits

DPP - Broncos primer: the Dallas Cowboys - Linday Jones

DPP - Q&A: Broncos make sure Dumervil plays to strength - Jeff Legwold

DPP - Analysis: Broncos' offensive line showing great depth - Lindsay Jones

CBS4 - Elway: Broncos Offensive Line Has Been Outstanding - Matthew Buettner

LTC - Dedication - Brian Howell
Daniel Graham is feeling the effects of playing 8 years down in the trenches. Anyone still wondering why we drafted Richard Quinn?

LTC - Broncos’ consistency bodes well for season - Brian Howell

DB - Awareness on Display - Zach Eisendrath
The NFL is helping put breast cancer awareness at the forefront in October.

DB - Ask Elvis Dumervil...

DB - Colorful Season At Home - Jim Saccomano

DB - 3-0 Makes For A Fun Start - Mark Cooper

DB - Buckhalter, Moreno Up For Awards - Gray Caldwell

TSN - AFC West: Unbeaten Broncos face uphill battle - Shawn Clarke

Cowboys News

NFP - Monday replay: Cowboys shut down deep threat - Matt Bowen
Plenty of good analysis which is relevant come Sunday.

ST - The smartest thing the Cowboys can do is let Romo be Romo - Jennifer Floyd Engel

ST - Broncos, Orton are a pair of surprises - Jeff Caplan

ST - Dallas Cowboys cornerback Mike Jenkins is stepping up - Clarence Hill

ST - Dallas Cowboys down to one healthy running back - Charean Williams

DMN - Rush weak? Dallas Cowboys' running back depth being tested - Todd Archer

DMN - No pass rush from Dallas Cowboys' Spencer making it tough be Ware - Jean-Jacques Taylor

DMN - Jenkins looks to have won job at right cornerback for Dallas Cowboys - David Moore

DMN - Dallas Cowboys scouting report: Denver Broncos - Rick Gosselin

AFC West

NFL - Chiefs sign former Cardinals TE Pope

KCS - Chiefs having trouble finding right combination on offensive line - Kent Babb

KCS - Chiefs trade Thigpen to Dolphins - Kent Babb

SDUT - Connected by Steel - CHris Jenkins

SDUT - Scouting the Steelers

NFP - Real Fake People: Very Fake Al Davis - Ray Gustini
Another gem from Gustini.

SFC - No tussle over Russell; he'll start - David White

SFG - Last word on Gannon - David White

OT - Poole: Raiders are historically horrendous

NFL News

NFL - Trotter back with Eagles after year out of league

NFL - Rams LB Vobora suspended four games

NFL - Saints place Pro Bowl left tackle Brown on IR

NFL - Rams release veteran DT Hollis Thomas

NFL - Tomlin may bench Steelers WR Sweed after drops

NFL - Police investigating case involving Patriots CB Wilhite

NFL Opinion

NFP - Diner morning news: Breaking down the teams - Mike Lombardi
Lombardi has a fair point (IMO) regarding the Broncos' prospects. It remains to be seen whether Kyle Orton can win a game for us when we need it...

SI - Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants are NFL elite through Week 3 - Don Banks
Banks thinks the Broncos will be 4-7 or worse after the next 8 games...

SI - Pittsburgh Steelers, Arizona Cardinals have hope despite records - John P. Lopez

FOX - Schein 9: Don't rule out Jets-Giants Super Bowl

PFW - Rookie Meter: Jury out on freshman backs - Matt Sohn

Y! - Latest injury could spell end for Pennington - Jason Cole

NFP - Tavern talk: Zorn’s game management - Mike Lombardi

CBS - Time for Zorn to prove he's worthy of Redskins gig - Clark Judge

NFP - NFL notebook: Bills’ offense needs T.O. - Matt Bowen

ESPN - T.O. wallowing in his own martyrdom - Tim Graham

SI - MMQB Mailbag - Peter King

NFL - One month into 2009 season, Steelers and Cardinals not so super - Vic Carucci

SN - Who Will Be The Last Unbeaten Standing? - Albert Breer

CBS - Bengals' turnaround has been long time coming - Charley Casserly

SI - Eric Mangini might be worst NFL coaching hire ever - Joe Posnanski

NFP - The contract conundrum - Jack Bechta

NFP - The NFP Power Rankings

NFL - Expert Rankings: Week 3

CBS - Power Rankings: Manning always gives Colts chance to win - Pete Prisco

Y! - Jets, Saints proper hosts for Bourbon St. party - Mike Silver

SN - NFL Power Poll: Redskins reeling after loss to Lions - Clifton Brown

NFP - Scout’s notebook: offensive review - Wes Bunting

NFP - Scout’s notebook: defensive review - Wes Bunting

Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations

Ted Bartlett — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 12:30:14 -0000

More photos » by Marcio Jose Sanchez - AP

2 months ago: Denver Broncos' Knowshon Moreno, top, leaps over Oakland Raiders cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Oakland, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009.(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

Browse more photos »

Happy Tuesday, friends and welcome to another edition of Shallow Thoughts & Nearsighted Observations, where we're always aiming to deliver the best thing since Starks in Clark's Wallabees. It's a feel-good Tuesday, right? Our Broncos are 3-0, but it's a much more legitimate-feeling 3-0 than last season's version. The respect is still slow in coming, but it's coming bit by bit.

The most important thing I've witnessed happening is a growing confidence and self-respect among our fan base. MHR is mostly known as a positive-thinking community, so maybe a lot of us were on the feel-good train earlier than others, but I can feel it really starting to take hold. Contrast that to Cleveland (where most are aware that I reside). The feeling around here is just awful, and we can all be glad not to be feeling that way. It's on to the Cowboys game, but first let's do this thing here. Ready.... BEGIN!!!!

1. I was browsing through my Facebook news feed on Sunday night, and I saw this gem from NYCBroncosFan (Later posted on MHR by John Bena):

"Denver rookie head coach Josh McDaniels doesn't have a grasp on how to build a team." - John Clayton, April 23rd, 2009

Doesn't have a grasp, huh? That's a really, embarrassingly arrogant comment, because if you're commenting on other people's "grasps," it necessarily follows that you fancy yourself an expert, who is far beyond mere grasping of the operative subject. I spent some time excoriating Clayton last week, but since that's like stealing a candy bar from a developmentally challenged baby chinchilla, I have no interest in continuing with that tack this week. At some point, the referee calls the fight, and I'll take a bloody win by TKO. It's his blood, and not mine, after all.

What I want to talk about in this prime ST&NO real estate today is the idea of team building. For one thing, what in the world would John Clayton know about building a football team, any damn way?

OK... sorry about that. I guess I need to work on impulse control. Let me start again. New paragraph.

Deep breath. And another. OK, beginning again, in a more measured tone, I didn't tweet a whole lot on Sunday (@TedBartlett905) because I spent a lot of the game on the phone with my brother Chris, a Los Angeles-based fellow Broncos fan. He's a smart guy (it runs in part of the family), and we were talking about team building. His fanhood of Correll Buckhalter continues to grow, and he said that his impression was that Buckhalter was a winning player, and that he never perceived him that way in his Philadelphia days.

Some discussion ensued, and he said one of his classic, succinct "Chris things" that he bestows upon the world sometimes.

"Building a team isn't about getting the best players, it's about getting the right players." Chris Bartlett, September 27, 2009

Riddle me this, friends. Who is the worst player on the 2009 Broncos? That's a tough question to answer, because whoever it is, he is a pretty good football player. As far as I am concerned, this team has zero bad players on it. Now think back to last year. It was a horror show of bad players on defense, right? There were at least 5 starting by the end of the year, and another starting at RB, after all the injuries. Think how many of these players are out of the NFL now, who didn't even get a sniff of a training camp this year. Nearly all of them.

CBS showed a graphic of the sources of player acquisition for the Broncos' 53-man roster.

2009 Free Agency	17	32.08%
2009 Trade	3	5.66%
2009 Draft	9	16.98%
2009 College Free Agent	1	1.89%
Holdovers	23	43.40%

Total	53	100.00%

That is an astounding amount of turnover, but it represented the importation of the right players, if not necessarily the best players. Instead of Channing Crowder, we got the much cheaper Andra Davis, who has been great for the Broncos through 3 games. Instead of Albert Haynesworth or Chris Canty, we got the very cost-effective Ronald Fields, who has also been outstanding. Derrick Ward? How about Buckhalter instead? Only two somewhat highly-priced players were brought in via Free Agency; Brian Dawkins (5 years, $17 Million) and Andre' Goodman (5 years, $20.4 Million), and both of them have been worth their weight in gold. (To get all finance-nerd on you, Dawkins weighs 210 pounds, which is 3,062.5 Troy Ounces. Gold traded at 990.42 USD per Troy Ounce on Monday night, so I just valued Dawkins at $3,033,161.25, which is pretty close to the average annual value of his contract of $3.4 million. Funny how that worked out.) :)

When you know exactly what you want to do on the football field, and you know exactly how you want to do it, you can go out and decisively get the right players to do those things in those ways. Of course, your ability to project the fit of the new players, and evaluate their talent is key. For my money, every single player whom the new Broncos staff signed, drafted, and traded for has performed EXACTLY as expected, if not better. The only bust was J.J. Arrington, who didn't recover well from an injury and cost $100,000 (and nobody was counting on him too much, anyway). It was $100,000 well spent, because a healthy Arrington would be a contributor on this team, and they weren't expecting him to necessarily be healthy anyway.

There is no glaring weakness on this whole football team. That's a lofty statement, but I think it is a true one. The Broncos can run and throw, from big or small personnel groupings. They can stop the run and the pass, and be effective blitzing both and dropping, in base personnel or sub packages. The special teams have been excellent, through 3 games, even if I am a little reluctant to call that a sure thing yet. How many teams can say all of that? I can't really think of any, beyond the Giants and the Ravens. Maybe the Broncos' strengths aren't as strong as some other teams', but their weaknesses are mostly less weak. You'd better bring your "A" game when you play this team, because they're going to compete with you.

The 2009 Denver Broncos are a good football team, and they can compete with anybody in the NFL. This fact becomes clearer all the time, which is to say that most people still aren't hip to it, yet. They'll get there, though, eventually. Thinking ahead to 2010, anybody the Broncos bring in will be to upgrade a position of some strength. To me, that is a textbook way to build a team. As for John Clayton, I wonder when Josh McDaniels gets his apology, for the mean-spirited, myopic, and idiotic comment of April 23rd. I am betting on never.

2. Information From My Eyes - Denver at Oakland Edition:

a. I was just saying how the Broncos don't have any particular glaring weaknesses. An area where they can (and need to) perform better is in short-yardage running. I thought Russ Hochstein looked pretty bad as the goal-line FB for 3 straight plays; I want to see Spencer Larsen back filling that role if Peyton Hillis is going to be the ball carrier. I actually think that Knowshon Moreno could be the better option, though. He runs with quickness and violence, and I think he can be really effective down at the goal line.

b. Jabar Gaffney was a fantastic acquisition, and he continues to make key plays for the Broncos. He would be the number one guy for the Raiders if he'd signed there, and the Crypt Keeper wasn't setting the depth chart. I am glad he signed in Denver and that he plays a great deal for the Broncos.

c. Renaldo Hill has been such an unsung guy throughout his career, but he's a really good player. He is always in the right position, and plays the game with awareness and intelligence.

d. Does anybody realize the the Broncos' defense is now number 1 in the NFL in both yards and points per game?

e. I'll talk more about Ryan Clady in the Between The Lines segment, but he tied an NFL record Sunday by posting his 19th consecutive game from the start of his NFL career without allowing a full sack. The player he tied is Ryan Young, a forgotten former Jet, who began his career in 1999. It says here that next week, Mr. Clady will dominate DeMarcus Ware, as he did in the 2008 Preseason, and he'll hold the record alone.

f. I'd like to see Eddie Royal get the ball more on offense, and I am sure I am not alone in that camp. It just seems to me that the Broncos were sure they could run the ball at will against Cleveland and Oakland, and decided to follow that plan without a lot of deviation. When you get substantial leads, passing seems more risky than what you want in the second halves of games.

g. I didn't think RIch Gannon was particularly critical of the Raiders Sunday, and I wonder if John Herrerra's ~~clownish~~ typical ploy worked, by chastening Gannon's commentary about his former team. It's pretty ridiculous that the Raiders are so allergic to criticism, and the better way to avoid it is to lose the Commitment To Sucking.

h. I usually get things right, and I still think JaMarcus Russell can salvage his career and be a good QB. I have to say, though, that ever since I said that he looked good in Week 3 of the preseason, he has played terribly. He clearly isn't playing with much confidence right now, and it is incumbent on the Raiders' staff to set him up for success by asking him to do things he is comfortable doing. My understanding is that they're messing with Russell's mechanics a lot in practice, and while he definitely needs refinement, the regular season is no time for overhauls.

i. Could Darrius Heyward-Bey possibly look more clueless on the field? That guy is a project, because he doesn't know how to run routes, and he's inconsistent catching the ball. Louis Murphy is better than him now, and probably always will be. Of course, Murphy didn't have too great a game Sunday, either.

j. Nice job of holding by Brett Kern, as two Lonie Paxton snaps weren't too great. Matt Prater did his job Sunday, which should keep his critics temporarily at bay.

k. Has anybody else noticed that the Broncos' captains aren't wearing the "C" patches? I was under the impression that doing so was a Roger Goodell mandate. Does anybody know more than me about this?

l. I also noticed (last week) that the Broncos' name wasn't painted in the end zones at Mile High, and all there were were the diagonal stripes. I didn't really care for the look, and I wonder what the rationale for it is.

3. Information From My Eyes - Other Games Edition:

a. The Patriots sure have been struggling in goal-to-go situations the last couple weeks. I think if I had Randy Moss, I'd definitely be looking to hit some fade routes on teams down there. Part of the problem is definitely that their line isn't getting the same push as in past seasons

b. Brian Williams was released by the Jaguars, but still looks pretty useful to me. He broke up a deep ball to Randy Moss that would have been a sure TD, and generally looked to me like a solid player. For the Patriots, they were in on the Jaguars Retreads Act too, with Fred Taylor looking very good, and getting over 100 yards and a TD. Taylor is a formerly great player, who has declined to being merely a good one, but he was a classic Patriots bargain acquisition.

c. Ryan Mouton for the Titans may be playing himself out of a job, and he personally cost his team the game against the Jets (with help from Kerry Collns). Mouton hasn't shown much positive in the return game, and has shown trouble holding on to the football.

d. As for Collins, he was in a no-win situation, but he needed to play better. Sunday's game was a classic case of the game getting away from the better all-around team early on, and causing them to play from behind, to their operational detriment. Collins is not built to play like that, and he responded accordingly.

e. I haven't seen a lot of the Redskins this season, so I watched a bit of the Detroit-Washington game Sunday. The Skins are getting atrocious play from their offensive line, and are another team that should have taken Michael Oher. Jim Zorn has faced a lot of criticism for his scoring area play-calling, but the fact is, if the line doesn't block anybody, Clinton Portis can't pound the ball in.

f. The Lions are on the right track, and it's clear how much better coached they are than they have been - maybe ever in my lifetime. Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, and Calvin Johnson are an outstanding trio on offense, and Brandon Pettigrew is another nice weapon. The Lions need more talent to be a real contender, but they will steal a few more wins this season, like they did on Sunday, and add to their talent base in the next offseason. They'll grow up with Stafford, and finally be a legitimate team.

g. Tampa Bay is a terrible team right now, especially on defense. Tim Crowder is playing significant snaps for them, which speaks to their relative talent level, when he was the odd man out in Denver. Even a good play, like Sabby Piscitelli's tackle for a loss on Brandon Jacobs to force a FG rather than a TD is wasted, because the Bucs can't put together any kind of consistent performance in the other phases of the game.

h. Percy Harvin is a dangerous, dangerous player. He never returned kickoffs at Florida, because the best kick returner in America, Brandon James, was there, too. Harvin took one back 101 yards in the third quarter Sunday, and looked like he was born to do it. He has now scored in every game this season, and could challenge Mark Sanchez to be Offensive Rookie of the Year, if he keeps it up.

i. The 49ers got their own huge special teams play, when Ray McDonald blocked a FG attempt and Nate Clements took it back 59 yards for a TD as the first half ended. Both of those special teams plays felt like huge momentum shifts, and neither particularly ended up affecting the final score, thanks to Brett Favre's heroics.

j. A young defensive player I like a lot is Thomas DeCoud, a Safety for the Falcons. He was a third-round pick last season, and he showed very well against the Patriots on Sunday, especially in breaking up a well-thrown Tom Brady-to-Randy Moss deep ball.

k. The Cincinnati Bengals look real to me, as real as Carson Palmer can make them. The big surprise to me is how well their offensive line is playing, even without top draft pick Andre Smith. Andrew Whitworth is better than I thought he was, and he's doing pretty well at Left Tackle, even if James Harrison did get him once for a sack on Sunday. When Smith gets healthy, he'll step right in at RT, and they'll be even better, because he can blow guys off the ball.

l. For more Bengals fun, the winning Touchdown was caught by another ST&NO Favorite, Andre Caldwell, who is turning into a nice WR. He was a great player throughout his career at Florida, his brother Reche played in the NFL, and you have to love a WR whose nickname is Bubba. He is part of a really good group, along with Chad Ochocinco, Chris Henry, and Laveranues Coles (yet another ST&NO Favorite), and he makes the Bengals that much harder to defend, especially when you remember to worry about the highly underrated Cedric Benson. If I were the Bengals' offensive coordinator, I'd be going 4 wide with Benson all game long, and making teams try to stop me from running with their sub packages. The Bengals' coaching budget is too light to have that much creativity, though. It costs money, after all.

m. The Steelers defense really misses Troy Polamalu from a scheme perspective, because his presence allows them to do a lot of the exotic blitz packages they normally do. Polamalu is one of the very fastest players in the NFL in pads, and can consistently show blitz, and get to deep center field from there at the snap.

n. I think the Cardinals lost the Sunday Night Game on one play, when Tim Hightower fumbled inside the Colts' 5-yard line in the second quarter. If they scored, they'd have taken a 10-0 lead, and instead, the Colts just took off after that play. I question the mental toughness of the Cardinals team, and especially Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who seems like he doesn't want me to be right in praising him a few weeks ago.

o. Donald Brown is a much better player than Joseph Addai in all phases of the game, and it's absolutely no accident that he's getting the crunch-time snaps for the Colts, even if Addai is nominally the starter.

p. Dwight Freeney's injury could be catastrophic for the Colts, if he has to miss a lot of time. A lot is made of how irreplaceable Bob Sanders has been in years past, but I actually think Melvin Bullitt does a really nice job filling in for him. Freeney is the irreplaceable one for the Colts, make no mistake about that. If they can't rush the passer with 4 men, they're suddenly as vulnerable against the pass as they are against the run.

q. The Ravens are hitting on all cylinders right now, and look like the best team in the NFL, to me. I don't think they miss Rex Ryan too much, as it looks like Greg Mattison has their defense playing just as well as Ryan did. Mattison isn't well known to NFL fans yet, but he's a great coach (I am familiar with him from his college days).

r. Brady Quinn is not the problem for the Browns, and neither would Derek Anderson be, although Quinn is better. I talked about how the Broncos hit on all of their offseason acquisitions - well, the Browns missed on all of theirs, from the looks of things so far. They're talent-poor, and they look like they know they are losers. It's going to be a long season here in the metro area, but at least the locals are used to this. I can't imagine how Eric Mangini and George Kokinis evaluated this to be a competitive group of players.

s. Stick a fork in the Dolphins, even before Chad Pennington was lost for the season. Chad Henne is not the answer, and he'll prove that as the season goes on. Pat White isn't either, as a full-time QB, so I expect Miami to be shopping after this season, with a high first-rounder to spend. After passing on Matt Ryan in 2008, you wonder if they'd do it again.

t. Darren Sproles proved once again that he is a second banana, and not a lead back.

u. The longest run the Broncos have given up this season was 20 yards, to Cedric Benson. If Felix Jones is healthy next Sunday, and the Broncos miss setting the edge at an inopportune time, that could go out the window. The only RB who's more dangerous to the outside is Jones' draft classmate Chris Johnson, and it's not a very big difference. Jones strained his left knee on a 40-yard run in the 3rd quarter Monday night.

v. You know who has developed into a terrific player is Thomas Davis, who was a first-round pick as a Safety for the Panthers in 2005. It took him awhile to learn how to play LB, but he has really turned into a Pro Bowl-caliber guy. He is excellent in coverage, and really hits guys.

w. I only saw the very end of the Seattle-Chicago game, and didn't care enough to record or watch the Short Cut. What I saw though told me what I already knew, which is that Seneca Wallace isn't good enough to be a backup QB in the NFL. When he was forced to throw the ball from the pocket in a compressed-time situation, and beat zone defense with strong throws, he was unable to do it. The Seahawks have to know this by now, and should have addressed it in the offseason.

x. The Texans got screwed on that offensive pass-interference call on Kevin Walter, to be sure, but Chris Brown has to hold onto the ball going into the end zone. The Texans are a team that just can't seem to consistently do the little things to win games, which doesn't reflect very well on MHR favorite Gary Kubiak and his staff. To be honest, doing the big things well and missing the little things is sort of Later Years Shanahan-ish, when you think about it. I hope Kubiak and Company can get it turned around.

4. Between The Lines

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders

a. Once again, the Broncos were nearly flawless in pass protection - this time, against the best pair of DEs they've seen this season. Kyle Orton took one significant hit, on an outside stunt by Gerard Warren, after he'd gotten rid of the ball. Ryan Clady owned Richard Seymour, to the point where Seymour was called for a personal foul for pulling Clady's hair. On the right side, Ryan Harris dominated Greg Ellis, as well. Ellis came into the game with 3 sacks but never got a sniff of Orton. The inside of the Broncos' line also held up well, against their somewhat-lesser individual competition. Largely since the Broncos rarely had to throw, the Raiders never generated a significant rush in this game. ESPN.com didn't even give Warren credit for his QB hit, and had the Raiders entirely shut out in their box score.

b. For their part, the Raiders struggled in pass protection, before finally pretty much giving up on throwing the football. I had to look up who #51 was, because he showed up in my notes several times with terrible plays. It's Chris Morris, a natural Center, who was playing Guard. In addition to two holding penalties, he got beaten a few times. Mario Henderson struggled mightily with Elvis Dumervil, who had two sacks and should have had two more (Darrell Reid's hands-to-the-face penalty cost him one, and JaMarcus Russell dragged him past the line of scrimmage on another). Robert Ayers lined up all over and got a lot of pressure. I am really pleased with his growth. Darrell Reid got a sack, and Vonnie Holliday and Marcus Thomas also got good pressure in spots. The Broncos sacked Russell 3 times, and hit him 3 more.

c. The Broncos line also dominated in the running game, again splitting about half and half between zone- and man-blocking concepts. The only black mark was the failure to convert 3 straight runs from the 1-yard line early in the game. Ryan Harris was dominant in the running game, and was key to springing both of Correll Buckhalter's long runs. Clady was his normal self, and his cut block on Nnamdi Asomugha allowed Knowshon Moreno to score his first-ever TD. The Broncos rushed 45 times for 215 yards (4.8 per rush) and the Moreno TD. I did think the Broncos slowed down a bit when Russ Hochstein and Tyler Polumbus played a lot in the second half. I really enjoyed Richard Quinn's blocking, and he showed again that he is just another player who is perfectly fitting his role, as imagined when he was acquired.

d. The Raiders came into the game with a pretty vaunted rushing attack, and it never really got going. They rushed for 95 yards on 21 carries, but it was tremendously disjointed, and 15 of those yards came on one run by Russell. Henderson was a bit better in the running game for Oakland, and Samson Satele showed a bit of surge a few times, too. For the most part, though, the Broncos held the line of scrimmage, and maintained their gap discipline well. Mario Haggan had a really nice game against the run, and forced a Darren McFadden fumble, which Thomas and Reid unfortunately failed to recover, after the three of them had combined to stack up a play. McFadden got a couple of outside creases, but nothing consistent at all.

e. The Broncos dominated both lines in this game, and there was no bigger reason why they won. It was so clear that even the fairly reticent Josh McDaniels claimed the victory in these areas.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams

a. I feel like I have been telling this story for two years (possibly because I have been), but the Packers are bad in pass protection. Leonard Little beat Allen Barbre twice for sacks, and Aaron Rodgers avoided 5 other near sacks by running with the ball (he had 8 carries for 38 yards and a TD). If the Rams were any better on the defensive line, Rodgers could have had a more-typically painful day. I didn't see much of anything from Chris Long in the pass-rushing department, even against the underwhelming pass blocking of Daryn Colledge.

b. The Packers disappointed in terms of rushing the passer. Aaron Kampman got a sack and injured Marc Bulger, but the Packers never hit Kyle Boller after that. I was really surprised, because the Rams' OT combination of Alex Barron and Adam Goldberg is decidedly below average. Barron was solid, but Goldberg surrendered the Kampman sack and had a holding penalty, on a play where I initially wrote "great block" (The replay showed it to definitely be a hold). Jason Brown has been a very nice acquisition for the Rams, and anchored the middle. I really didn't see much from Clay Matthews, and I haven't yet.

c. The Packers' rushing stats looked pretty good, with 37 carries for 152 yards and 2 TDs. The truth is, the gains made by Ryan Grant were very hard-fought, and only averaged 3.8 yards per carry. The overall number is dramatically inflated by Rodgers' 38 yards and Donald Driver's 13. Chris Long did show well in the running game, and Clifton Ryan hung pretty tough inside, but the best run stopper was S Craig Dahl, not a lineman.

d. The Rams actually did a very nice job of run blocking, led by Jason Brown and RG Richie Incognito. Barron and Goldberg were OK outside, but the battle was won inside. For the Packers, ST&NO Favorite Cullen Jenkins had a disappointing game, but NT Ryan Pickett showed pretty well. B.J. Raji was active for the first time, and I never noticed him in this game once, and I'm not even sure that he played, since he didn't register on the stat sheet.

e. I'd give a slight edge to the Rams overall, which is mostly probably due to low expectations. I just can't get past the feeling that the Packers are really bad on the O-Line, and it's a shame, because they're very good otherwise. The Rams have to feel pretty good about their performance, and maybe it carries over to games against lesser competition.

5. So, I guess this makes me something of a flip-flopper, but I am going to briefly explain a change in previously stated policy, so we're all on the same page, and nobody wonders. I have previously declared that I would henceforth refer to several underwhelming football writers by unflattering nicknames. I have decided to change course on that policy, and call them by their names.

I like to think that this column is pretty good, and I don't want to detract from that. There's no need to feed the God of Obviousness by calling people names, and I can get cheap laughs by other methods. I will still feel free to criticize stupid things that people write, but I will call their writers by their chosen names.

6. Back to football, I decided to name glaring weaknesses by team, to illustrate my point in item 1. I am limiting this to whole phases of the game, and mostly not subsets of a phase of the game.

Dallas Cowboys - Pass coverage, Pass rush (other than DeMarcus Ware)

New York Giants - None, but pass protection is sometimes close to being one.

Philadelphia Eagles - Running the ball inside

Washington Redskins - The offensive line in both the running and passing games

Green Bay Packers - Pass protection (a major weakness)

Detroit Lions- Pass protection, run defense, pass defense

Minnesota Vikings- Pass protection, Pass coverage

Chicago Bears - The offensive line in both the running and passing games, and pass coverage from safeties

San Francisco 49ers - Pass offense, Pass rush

Seattle Seahawks - Run offense, Pass protection

Arizona Cardinals - Pass protection (a major weakness, like Green Bay)

St. Louis Rams - Everything, except for punting and place-kicking; this is the least talented team in the NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Pass rush, Run defense, Pass offense

Carolina Panthers - Run defense

Atlanta Falcons - Pass defense and Interior run defense

New Orleans Saints - Pass defense (it's somewhat improved, but I don't trust it after Kevin Kolb lit them up)

New England Patriots - Pass protection, Pass rush

New York Jets - Pass protection (though it is improving)

Miami Dolphins - Passing offense

Buffalo Bills - Pass defense

Pittsburgh Steelers- Pass protection, Run offense

Baltimore Ravens - None

Cleveland Browns - Everything except special teams

Cincinnati Bengals - Pass protection (but they're improving lately)

Oakland Raiders - Pass offense, Run defense

Kansas City Chiefs - Run defense, Pass rush, Pass offense

San Diego Chargers - Run defense, Pass rush

Jacksonville Jaguars - Pass offense, Pass defense

Houston Texans - Pass protection, Run defense

Indianapolis Colts - Run defense

Tennessee Titans - Pass offense, Pass coverage

7. Retired for John Elway

8. I saw where ESPN Dallas was launched this week, joining Chicago and Boston as cities where the Worldwide Leader has spread. I wonder when/if Denver gets its own site. If it happens, their writers better consistently bring their "A" games to compete with MHR.

9. Big up Matt Bowen of the National Football Post for being the first widely-distributed national NFL writer to admit he didn't see the Broncos coming, and that they're for real.

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Time-to-hop-on-the-Broncos-bandwagon.html

Can the Broncos keep it going?

Sure they can. I fully understand that the early season schedule has been favorable for the Broncos, but looking ahead, they still have two games against Kansas City, one more at home versus the Raiders (three games they should win) and two big games against Philip Rivers and the Chargers.

Anybody who can divorce themselves from their preconceived notions can see that the Broncos are doing all of the little things that win games. That's the crux of Bowen's realization, and I salute him for being the first to have the combination of acumen and guts to see it and say it.

10. An early thought on next week's Cowboys game. Dallas has a massive offensive line, and they tend to wear teams down by the time the second half rolls around. That's what happened with the Panthers Monday night. I think the Broncos will be tougher to wear down, because they use such an interchangeable rotation of defensive linemen, and there's no particular drop-off in quality when the subs come in. Every player in the rotation is contributing, and I think it bodes really well for success in Week 4.

That's all for this week, friends. Check us out Saturday morning for Lighting Up