SB Nation - Arizona Cardinals

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

23 days ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

Arizona Cardinals Power Rankings Round Up: Week 13

Andrew602 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:30:13 -0000

The power rankings around the web are in and after the Cardinals impressive victory over the Minnesota Vikings, they seem to be making believers out of critics. The Cardinals fell down some power ranking lists(9.8 last week) after their loss to the Titans, but climbed back to the top and average the week with a 6.2, easily their highest average of the season.

ESPN - 6th

They are a Kurt Warner concussion and/or a 99-yard Vince Young drive away from being 6-0 on the road this season. (Sando)

Yahoo - 5th

What got devoured more quickly Sunday night – Larry Fitzgerald Sr.'s ice-cream sandwhich or Adrian Peterson on running plays?

FOX - 6th

With fear of future regret, it's time to believe in the Cardinals again. Now that they are finally playing consistently well — and not just vs. the NFC West — take them seriously.

CBS - 8th

They served notice to the rest of the NFL not to forget about them by beating the Vikings the way they did. The defense was impressive.

Walter Football - 6th

If I knew Kurt Warner was ready to go, I would have picked the Cardinals. I swear! The Vikings had a road game for the first time since Nov. 1 and had to travel all the way across the country. Arizona, meanwhile, wanted to make a statement by beating Minnesota.

Sports Illustrated - 6th

Can't tell you how impressed I was with the Cardinals' effort against Minnesota on Sunday night in that big shiny stadium of theirs. That Arizona defensive line out-classed the Vikings' injury-plagued offensive line, and a Cardinals offensive line that was missing left tackle Mike Gandydeflected everything Minnesota's vaunted pass rush threw at it. I see a payback beatdown coming for the 49ers Monday night in Candlestick.

Sporting News - 6th

No longer just a finesse team, the Cardinals' defense and offensive line can bully opponents.

NFL Fanhouse - 8th

A shocking slam of the Vikings on Sunday Night Football pretty clearly establishes the Cards as legit this year, with the only possible worry for last year's NFC champs being the health of Kurt Warner. Given that they're straight-up cruising to the NFC West title at this point, it would be pretty shocking not to see a hefty dose of Matt Leinart for much of tte regular season. While no one wants Warner getting rusty, getting injured in a meaningless contest with nothing on the line would be far worse.

USA Today - 6th

NFL - 6th

Yahoo Team Ranker - 6th

Average Power Rankings By the Week:

Week 1: 16
Week 2: 15.1
Week 3: 15
Week 4: 18
Week 5: 18
Week 6: 13
Week 7: 9
Week 8: 13
Week 9: 10.9
Week 10: 8.4
Week 11: 7.0
Week 12: 9.8
Week 13: 6.2

Arizona Cardinals Fly Around the NFC West

najmsh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:15:46 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner (13) is hurried by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009.

Browse more photos »

After a very intense (but fulfilling) week 13, the Arizona Cardinals find themselves atop the NFC West, a three game lead with four left to play. Maybe it was the confidence of our friends over at Niners Nation or maybe it was a product of the damage done to Cardinals fans’ psyches over the years, but many expected the Cardinals and the Niners to fight for first place in the division during the upcoming Monday Night Game. Thankfully, that is not the case.

San Francisco 49ers: The Niners are coming off one of their worst losses of the year (from a morale standpoint). Coach Mike Singletary came into the season wanting to instill a team mentality and a sense of toughness, and he was initially very successful in doing so. The Niners started 3-1, and came within a Brett Favre Hail Mary of being undefeated after 4 weeks (with 3 division wins), but it went downhill from there. Starting with a drubbing by Atlanta, the Niners went through a 4 game losing streak and ultimately lost 6 of their next 8 games. They are now tied with Seattle for second place in the division, and barring a Cardinals collapse, are out of the playoffs. There is a little optimism now, as many of the Niners faithful are confident that Alex Smith is the quarterback of the future. However, Mike Singletary and the much maligned Jimmy Raye need to find a way to make Smith successful while also incorporating Frank Gore into the offense (Gore has averaged only 10 carries/game over the last three games). The Niners play at home against the Cardinals this week, a game where the Cards are favored by 3.

Seattle Seahawks: It was a very up and down week for the Seattle Seahawks. Long time GM Tim Ruskell resigned from his post, inviting in a plethora of Mike Holmgren rumors. Ruskell inherited a loaded team and added a few Seahawk mainstays, including Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill, but much of his reign was marked with draft busts and bad trades. The team itself is coming off a close win against the 49ers and is tied for second place in the division at 5-7. The Seahawks are unexpectedly rebuilding in a year where many thought they would challenge the Cardinals for the division. On the bright side, they have two first round draft picks and if Mike Holmgren decides to come back as general manager, they could rebound quickly. Seattle is travelling to Reliant Stadium this week to take on the most schizophrenic team in the league, the Houston Texans.

St. Louis Rams: Injuries, injuries, injuries. After Sunday’s game against the Bears, the Rams had to put safety Oshimogho Atogwe on injured reserve, joining starting cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Ron Bartell. The Rams placed the franchise tag on Atogwe during the offseason and are shelling out close to $6 million for his services this year. They now have a big decision to make about his future with the team. The Rams are essentially headed for another top five pick, with problems at every offensive position except running back. St. Louis is travelling to Tennessee this week to take on the Tennessee Chris Johnsons, who are coming off their first loss since Vince Young was named the starting quarterback.

Division Leaders:

New Orleans Saints* (12-0) – (@ATL, DAL, TB, @CAR)

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) – (CIN, @CAR, @CHI, NYG)

Arizona Cardinals (8-4) – (@SF, @DET, STL, GB)

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) – (SD, @NO, @WAS, PHI) (I’m pretty sure the schedule makers were laughing uncontrollably while making Dallas’ December schedule)

Wild Card:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) – (@NYG, SF, DEN, @DAL)

Green Bay Packers (8-4) – (@CHI, @PIT, SEA, @ARI)

In the Hunt:

New York Giants (7-5) – (PHI, @WAS, CAR, @MIN)

Jet Memories Countdown #3- The Payback

Niko Houllis — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:00:26 -0000

Yesterday we went over Jet Memory number 4, When John McKay in his last game as a Head Coach tried to get James Wilder the ball back at the end of the game in order to get him 19 more yards to set an NFL record. He had his chance, but came up short; but he got his chance because McKay ordered his linebackers to backup and let the Jets score a TD.

Jets players took offense to this act though..although no one knew if they would because a lot of players were new to both teams, as were the new coaching staff.

So here we are the next year, 1985, and the Bucs were having a worse year than before. They were 0-9, and finally won a game 16-0 over the Cardinals. So a happy 1-9 Bucs team traveled up north to take on the Jets. Terry Bradshaw and Verne Lundquist were calling the game, and the Jets were all over the Bucs. Verne asked Bradshaw if players remembered the year before! You will love his answer before and after the first half!

The score at the end of the first half was the same score as the game the year before; 41 to 21, only reversed!..and at half time!

In the end, the Bucs gave up the most amount of points they have ever given up. They lost 62 to 28, and the best part is the Bucs scored first!

Twice! It was 14-0 Bucs before the Jets knew what happened. The Jets had us right where they wanted us!

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Browse more photos »

"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

JC Penney/Van Heusen HOF Voting: Part 2

Andrew602 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:11:30 -0000

The is a sponsored post from JC Penney and Van Heusen. Vote at www.fanschoice.com.

As reported last week, the fans choice HOF voting is still in effect and you can cast your vote now to hear the results live on NFL Network just before the actual HOF picks are made on February 6th, 2010. If you're unaware what this is, JC Penney and Van Heusen have provided the fans an option for picking and voicing who they would select to be in the Hall of Fame. Obviously the fans don't actually pick who gets inducted into the HOF but it's a great start and could eventually lead to fans having a voice in the voting one day. Either way, thousands of votes were cast and it's certainly interesting to see the opposing views of the fans and selectors top 25 picks.

The fans and the selectors currently have had their differences with the picks, with 11 of the fans picks not even making the selectors top 25. The fans selected 4 quarterbacks into the top 25 while the selectors picked zero. There's still plenty of time and instead of getting four picks, fans now have to narrow their picks down to only one. Names such as Jerry Rice, Emmitt Smith, and Shannon Sharpe fill the list, so head over to www.fanschoice.com to cast your vote. The current top 25 still in the running for fanschoice is after the jump...

1. Jerry Rice, WR – 20,599 votes
2. Emmitt Smith, RB – 17,523 votes
3. Ray Guy, P – 12,899 votes
4. Tim Brown, WR – 11,868 votes
5. Cris Carter, WR – 11,720 votes
6. Shannon Sharpe, TE – 11,048 votes
7. Otho Davis, Contrib. – Athletic Trainer – 8,360 votes
8. Jim Plunkett, QB – 7,807 votes
9. Richard Dent, DL – 6,387 votes
10. Lester Hayes, DB – 6,311 votes
11. Cliff Branch, WR – 6,246 votes
12. Tom Flores, Head Coach – 5,688 votes
13. Charles Haley, DL – 5,400 votes
14. Randall Cunningham, QB – 5,143 votes
15. QB Phil Simms, QB – 5,134 votes
16. Todd Christensen, TE – 5,040 votes
17. Steve Atwater, DB – 4,418 votes
18. Andre Reed, WR – 3,188 votes
19. Jim Tunney, Contrib. – 2,565 votes
20. Joe Theismann, QB – 2,530 votes
21. Ed “Too Tall” Jones, DL – 2,274 votes
22. Sterling Sharpe, WR – 2,168 votes
23. John Randle, DL – 2,097 votes
24. Steve Tasker, Special Teams – 1,857 votes
25. Kevin Greene, LB – 1,767 votes

Agree or disagree? Cast your vote now. www.fanschoice.com

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: A Prospector's Guide

Fooch — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:00:32 -0000

vs.

While this game lost a lot of its luster with the Sunday's 49ers loss and Cardinals win, it still should provide an entertaining football experience. As folks were trying to develop a legit 49ers-Seahawks rivalry, the 49ers quietly developed a rivalry with the Arizona Cardinals. Even though there have been numerous sweeps of the series, the games usually are highly competitive, if not going down close to the wire. Even if the 49ers are all but eliminated from playoff contention, this game provides a chance for the team to take a step forward in execution and build towards 2010.

The 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals in what will be the 37th meeting between the two teams, with San Francisco holding a 20-16 advantage in the series. In the season opener earlier this year, the 49ers defeated the Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium, 20-16.

San Francisco enters the upcoming game following a 20-17 defeat in Seattle. In that game, QB Alex Smith connected on 27 of 45 passes for a career-high 310 yards, which included a 33-yard touchdown pass to TE Vernon Davis for his 10th receiving touchdown on the year (tied for 1st in NFL and a new single-season record among 49ers TE’s all-time) and a 22-yard touchdown reception by WR Josh Morgan to mark his third score of the season. It marked the second week in a row that the 49ers defense had posted at least 5 sacks in a game, having had 6 sacks against the Jaguars before notching 5 sacks against the Seahawks.

The 49ers have won 7 of their past 9 home games and have a 38-24 overall record on Monday Night Football.

49ers-Cardinals Connections
Coaching Connections
• 49ers defensive coordinator Greg Manusky was a teammate of Cardinals assistant head coach/OL coach Russ Grimm with the Washington Redskins from 1988-91. Manusky played linebacker, while Grimm played offensive guard.
• 49ers TE coach Pete Hoener has had coaching stints with the Cardinals in both St. Louis (1985-86) and Arizona (2001-03).
• 49ers WR coach Jerry Sullivan spent 3 seasons as the Cardinals offensive coordinator from 2001-03.
• 49ers special teams coordinator Al Everest coached in the same capacity for the Cardinals from 1996-99.
• Cardinals LB coach Billy Davis was the 49ers defensive coordinator from 2005-06.

FORMER CARDINALS - 49ers K Joe Nedney spent three seasons with the Cardinals from 1997-99 ... 49ers G Tony Wragge was originally signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cardinals in 2002. Wragge spent 2 seasons (2002-03) with Arizona.

PANTHER PRIDE - 49ers CB Shawntae Spencer and Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald were teammates at the Univ. of Pittsburgh from 2000-03.

FORMER 49ERS - Cardinals DE Chike Okeafor spent the first 4 years of his career with the 49ers after being drafted in the 3rd round (89th overall) of the 1999 NFL Draft.

HAIL THE VICTORS - 49ers G David Baas played at Michigan alongside Cardinals DT Gabe Watson, DT Alan Branch and WR Steve Breaston.

CARDINALS NOR-CAL CONNECTIONS - Cardinals RB J.J. Arrington played 2 seasons at Cal.

Series Highlights
Matchups: 36
Series Record: 49ers lead series 20-16
49ers Home Record vs. Cardinals: 49ers Lead Series 11-8
First Meeting: 11/15/51, Cardinals win, 27-21, at San Francisco
Last Meeting: 9/13/09, 49ers win, 20-16, at Arizona
Current Streak: Won 1
Longest 49ers Win Streak: 5 (9/14/80-10/18/87 | 10/24/93-12/21/02)
Longest Cards Win Streak: 4 (10/6/74-12/2/79 | 10/2/05-12/24/06)
Most 49ers Points: 50 (12/7/03): 50-14, at San Francisco
Most Cardinals Points: 34 (Two Times): Last (10/6/74), 34-9 at SF
49ers Shutouts: None
Cardinals Shutouts: None

SAN FRANCISCO 20, ARIZONA 16
At Glendale, AZ, September 13, 2009

Head coach Mike Singletary delivered a very simple message to his team in advance of their season opening matchup against the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals … "Believe." His players did just that as they battled through a tremendously physical game highlighted by impressive defensive efforts from both squads. After being stymied on offense for more than 3 quarters, the 49ers embarked on a 15-play, 80-yd. drive that consumed 7:26 of clock time en route to a 3-yd., go-ahead TD pass from QB Shaun Hill to RB Frank Gore. On the drive, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye scrapped the run game that he had dialed up all afternoon and left the contest to Hill’s right arm. The QB responded going 9 of 13 for 72 yds. and the TD to Gore. On the series, Hill utilized his playmakers, including TE Vernon Davis who hauled in 4 passes for 35 yds.

The 49ers opened the scoring in the 1st quarter after All-Pro LB Patrick Willis intercepted a QB Kurt Warner pass to set his team up at the ARZ 36. Six plays later K Joe Nedney connected on a 37-yd. FG. Nedney later connected on a 50-yd. FG to give the Niners a 6-0 lead entering the 2nd stanza. The Cardinals finally got some offense going in the 2nd quarter as K Neil Rackers drilled a 44-yd. FG on their first possession. As the 49ers run game continued to struggle, Hill aired the ball out to All-Pro WR Isaac Bruce on a 50-yd. bomb, setting the offense up at the 6-yd. line. With a tired Arizona defense, the 49ers called on Gore the very next play. He hit pay dirt plunging through a massive hole into the endzone.

With the momentum in their favor, CB Nate Clements capitalized on another Warner mistake, as he hauled in his first interception of the year. Clements’ effort, and those of his defensive backfield mates, limited one of the game’s best WR tandems in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, to a combined 8 recepts. for 90 yds. and 1 TD. The 49ers were unable to capitalize on Clements’ pick, as Hill was sacked and forced to fumble on the next series. The Cardinals jumped on the opportunity, posting another Rackers’ FG this time from 29 yds. San Francisco left the field at the half with a 13-6 lead.

The Cardinals carried momentum into the 3rd quarter, and on their 2nd possession, Warner led his team on 69-yd scoring drive that resulted in a 5-yd. TD pass to Fitzgerald, knotting the score at 13. After a 49ers 3-n-out, Arizona again moved the ball to post points, a 43-yd. FG by Rackers just seconds into the 4th quarter, for the Cardinals final points of the game. The Niners would then embark on their game-winning drive and back it up with a defensive performance that paralyzed the Cardinals.

2009 Statistics

49ERS (rank)		CARDINALS (rank)
5-7 (t-2nd NFCW)	Record	8-4 (1st NFCW)
20.4 (19th)	Points per game	24.8 (9th)
285.4 (28th)	Total Offense	360.9 (10th)
91.3 (28th)	Rushing Offense	94.1 (26th)
194.2 (22nd)	Passing Offense	266.8 (5th)
28:55 (20th)	Possession Avg	30:41 (12th)
19.4 (t-10th)	Points allowed/gm	19.5 (12th)
346.4 (20th)	Total Defense	362.6 (24th)
95.8 (5th)	Rushing Defense	104.8 (12th)
250.6 (27th)	Passing Defense	257.8 (30th)
30 (t-7th)	Sacks	35 (3rd)
48.3 (2nd)	Punting Avg (Gross)	47.4 (3rd)
+1 (t-11th)	Turnover Differential	-3 (t-21st)

Grading The Offense: Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings

Andrew602 — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:05:46 -0000

via prod.static.cardinals.clubs.nfl.com

View full size photo »

It was uncertain just how prepared the Cardinals offense would be for a stingy Minnesota Vikings defense Sunday night. Kurt Warner was questionable all week with post-concussion symptoms. Matt Leinart shared reps with Warner in practice and was ready to go if Warner was not. Mike Gandy had been battling a hip injury and back up offensive tackle Jeremy Bridges was preparing to play as well. On game day, it was likely that Gandy wouldn't suit up, but Kurt Warner would refuse to miss anymore action. The Cardinals offense stumbled to start the game with a Tim Hightower fumble that led to a Vikings touchdown. After that however, the Cardinals offense outscored the Vikings 27-10. Let's take a look at how they did.

Kurt Warner: Kurt was surprisingly spot on after reportedly experiencing blurry vision and sensitivity to light. He had also missed the previous 6 quarters of play, so to see him slinging the ball over a 10-1 Vikings team was encouraging. The fact that the 38-year-old quarterback could return from a viscous blow to the head and beat the 2nd best team in the NFC spoke tremendously for his resiliency. Warner made the reads that put the wide receivers in best interest to make plays on the ball(see Anqun Boldin's 39-yard touchdown) and could have very well played a better game had the Cardinals not resorted to conservative play in the second half.

Running backs: Tim Hightower didn't make many plays with his legs to earn recognition, but surprisingly exceeded many expectations in the blocking department. Hightower squared up on just about every defender that decided to blitz and gave Kurt Warner the perfect amount of time to get rid of the ball. Hightower's blocking will be greatly needed come playoff time. Beanie Wells carried the ball more then Hightower, but only amounted to 28 yards. Obviously being in his rookie season means there will be games where he struggles, but it's not helping his cause to become the starting running back on offense.

Wide receivers: Anquan Boldin posted his best game of the season and also played his fourth game in a row in which he's looked like an absolute beast. Boldin set the tone on offense and led the Cardinals to their first two touchdowns of the game. Larry Fitzgerald quietly put together another solid game, catching a season long 35-yard touchdown pass that added to his league-leading total of 10 touchdowns. Steve Breaston didn't do much on the receiving end but added a 64 yard punt return in the 1st quarter that led to the first Cardinal touchdown of the game.

Offensive line: The biggest part of the win came from the trenches, where the Cardinals big five didn't allow a sack on the day. They completed that feat against the Vikings defensive line, a unit that leads the NFL in sacks. Even more impressive was the fact that back up tackle Jeremy Bridges was inserted into the line up, only to face NFL sack-leader Jared Allen. Add that the Cardinals run-blocking led to 113 rushing yards against the 2nd ranked run-defense and the Cardinals offensive line obviously had the best game of the season.

My offensive grade: A

Final thoughts: It's not hard to give the Cardinals an A after their 30-17 defeat of the Vikings on a nationally televised game of Sunday night football. They played their best game of the year on all facets of the game and faced no trouble moving the ball down-field. How did you grade the Cardinals offense and why?

Poll

How would you grade the Cardinals offensive effort on Sunday?

Arizona Cardinals News: Sean Morey Named Special Teams Player of the Decade

Hawkwind — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:11:39 -0000

The end of a decade always launches interesting fodder for most talking heads and with this being the first internet dominated decade, I'm sure we'll see more than ever before. Leading the way so far is Sports Illustrated and they've put out an impressive list of "decade talk" including the All Decade Team, Ten Signature Moments, the Highlights and Lowlights and the best plays, signings and draft picks of the decade. As we all know the Arizona Cardinals are not normally considered in any "best of" conversations but the past two or three years have started to change the perception of those in the national media. The Cardinals are represented to two prominent categories:

Special Teams Player of the Decade - Sean Morey: Morey has only been a Cardinal for three seasons but he's still made a significant impact not only on this team but on the NFL as a whole over the past decade. Not only has Morey survived longer than most as the "special teams ace," he's done it for three playoff teams and appeared in the Super Bowl twice. Over the course of the past ten years Morey has led his team in special teams tackles in five of the eight seasons that he's played and his blocked punt of Matt McBriar last year might have been the best Cardinals-related special teams play of the last quarter century.

Best Super Bowl - XLII Cardinals vs. Steelers: We all know what happened so there's no real need to pour salt in these wounds right?

Thoughts on the last decade of football? Is this the best decade of Cardinals football that you've ever witnessed? Those that have followed the team since the heights of the '70's, care to comment?

49ers-Cardinals: The Monday Night Football Crew

Fooch — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 21:00:23 -0000

Since the 49ers will be playing on Monday Night Football this week, we'll get a chance to hear 49ers-related insight from Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden. Whether you like the three or not, there is most definitely some knowledge in that group.

Over the course of this season I've actually missed out on the announcing for most Monday Night Football games. My schedule included a Monday night class. This Monday I've got a final exam during the day, but will be able to watch the game ~~life~~ live. Up until now, I've watched one Monday Night game (Washington-Philly). I've always been a fan of Ron Jaworski, so I can deal with him quite well. I'm especially curious to hear what he has to say about Alex Smith during the game. Jon Gruden, on the other hand, seems to be a mix of good and bad. The bad is that we get too much in the way of obvious comments. The good is that he seems to bring a solid amount of excitement and of course he's knowledgeable about football.

However, I can't really provide too much insight. I caught the one Washington-Philly game, and I've seen the tail end of a couple other games, but that's it. So, I wanted to open this up to get folks opinions thus far to the Tirico-Jaworski-Gruden announcing booth. How have they been thus far, and how would you say they've compared to some of the other announcers the 49ers have had for their games this season?