SB Nation - Atlanta Falcons

Saints @ Falcons: Official Thursday Injury Report

Saintsational — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:42:10 -0000

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Practice Report
	OUT (DEFINITELY WILL NOT PLAY)
	Thursday	CB Jabari Greer (groin)

	DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	LB Scott Fujita (knee), CB Jabari Greer (groin), LB Marvin Mitchell (hamstring), CB Tracy Porter (knee)
	Thursday	RB Mike Bell (knee), LB Scott Fujita (knee), LB Marvin Mitchell (hamstring), CB Tracy Porter (knee)

	LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	RB Mike Bell (knee), RB Reggie Bush (knee), T Jermon Bushrod (thumb), TE Darnell Dinkins (foot), DT Sedrick Ellis (knee), G Jahri Evans (toe), CB Randall Gay (hamstring), C Jonathan Goodwin (ankle), RB Lynell Hamilton (shoulder), DE Bobby McCray (knee), WR Lance Moore (ankle, hamstring), RB Pierre Thomas (quadricep), LB Jonathan Vilma (knee), S Usama Young (hip, calf)
	Thursday	RB Reggie Bush (knee), T Jermon Bushrod (thumb), TE Darnell Dinkins (foot), DT Sedrick Ellis (knee), G Jahri Evans (toe), CB Randall Gay (hamstring), C Jonathan Goodwin (ankle), RB Lynell Hamilton (shoulder), DE Bobby McCray (back, knee), WR Lance Moore (ankle, hamstring), TE Jeremy Shockey (hamstring), RB Pierre Thomas (quadricep), LB Jonathan Vilma (knee), S Usama Young (hip, calf)

ATLANTA FALCONS

Practice Report
	DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	G Harvey Dahl (ankle), CB Chris Houston (hamstring), C Todd McClure (knee), TE Justin Peelle (head), QB Matt Ryan (toe), RB Michael Turner (ankle)
	Thursday	G Harvey Dahl (ankle), CB Chris Houston (hamstring), TE Justin Peelle (head), QB Matt Ryan (toe), RB Michael Turner (ankle)

	LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	DT Jonathan Babineaux (shoulder), T Sam Baker (elbow), WR Michael Jenkins (ankle), T Will Svitek (ankle), WR Roddy White (knee)
	Thursday	DT Jonathan Babineaux (shoulder), T Sam Baker (elbow), WR Michael Jenkins (ankle), C Todd McClure (knee), T Will Svitek (ankle), WR Roddy White (knee)

	FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	CB Christopher Owens (shoulder)
	Thursday	CB Christopher Owens (shoulder)

Talking Saints With Canal Street Chronicles: The Sequel

Dave the Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 13:00:29 -0000

by Bill Haber - AP

Happ-i-ness? What's that? (AP Photo/Bill Haber)

View full size photo »

Grizzled veterans of this site will remember earlier in aught-nine, when I talked to Saintsational of Canal Street Chronicles about Chinese food and hubris. That feature now makes its triumphant return, with my black-and-gold friend and I riffing on snow, fortune cookies and his overwhelming urge to marry another man. No, seriously.

Follow along after the jump, and you might just learn something.

Saintsational: Alright. Let's get this started.

Dave the Falconer: Indeed.

Saintsational: I'm sure you want to ask me what it's like being the fan of such an awesome team.

Dave the Falconer: Well, first I'd have to ask why you switched to being a Falcons fan. Seems pretty disloyal to me. But for the sake of humoring you, what's it like to be a Saints fan right now?

Saintsational: Well, the Saints are kind of a big deal right now. Seriously though, I can't really say enough. It's hard to express in words.. This is something we've all been waiting for years to happen. I told you earlier that it's like everyone in the city drops ecstacy on Sunday and the high lasts all week.

Dave the Falconer: I certainly am envious of the success this season.

Saintsational: Did you see Drew on Jay Leno earlier tonight?

Dave the Falconer: No, I was busy driving through what we New Englanders like to call "a minor inconvenience."

Saintsational: Inconvenience? Is that traffic? Or snow?

Dave the Falconer: Big ol' snowstorm.

Saintsational: Oh, well, your loss dude.

Dave the Falconer: Is Drew a rock star-type figure in New Orleans at this point?

Saintsational: I don't know about rock star. Maybe more like Tiger Woods before his multiple extramarital affairs.

Dave the Falconer: So a cello star, maybe?

Saintsational: I will say this...we're having an election for mayor here in New Orleans next year. If he ran, he would win. Hands down. Wouldn't even need a run-off.

Dave the Falconer: He's probably also most qualified.

Saintsational: Haha. I'm laughing because it's true. I'm also crying...because it's true.

Dave the Falconer: You should probably see a therapist.

Saintsational: Drew's not as popular in New Orleans as Michael Vick is in Atlanta apparently. What's up with that?

Dave the Falconer: That's a cheap shot, my friend.

Saintsational: Door was open. Wiiiiiiiiiiiide open.

Dave the Falconer: There's still a large and vocal contingent of fans who I would say are equally or more attached to Vick than they are to the Falcons. You saw the results last Sunday.

Saintsational: Why? Matt Ryan is pretty darn good.

Dave the Falconer: I'm not licensed to psychoanalyze an entire fan base. So I'll just say...

Dave the Falconer: Hey! Look over there! :O

Saintsational: Where? I don't see anything...

Saintsational: Oh well, let's move on. Are the Saints going to have the good fortune of not seeing Matt Ryan on Sunday? Please answer Magic-8 ball style.

Dave the Falconer: Outlook hazy. Try again.

Saintsational: Damnit. I hate these things...Are the Saints going to have the good fortune of not seeing Matt Ryan on Sunday?

Dave the Falconer: Outlook good. Instead, you'll face off against the awesome might of Chris Redman.

Saintsational: Seriously? No Matt Ryan?

Dave the Falconer: Seriously. The coaching staff is saying they won't play Ryan without injured linemen Sam Baker and Harvey Dahl. Something about not getting him killed. I'm a bit hazy on the details.

Saintsational: Really? That's pretty interesting. It's funny, because that means they don't give a flying you know what about Redman. That must make him feel good.

Dave the Falconer: He used to sell insurance. I'm presuming he has some.

Saintsational: Ha! Alright, more injury questions. What about Turner? Please answer this one fortune cookie style.

Dave the Falconer: Michael Turner are find true love only in playing field. Lucky Numbers: 4 775 33 666. Learn To Speak Chinese: *&@#*$& is Boat.

Saintsational: You've outdone yourself with that one. So you think he'll play?

Dave the Falconer: Actually, I'm doubtful he will. Damn fortune cookie format. I think the coaching staff has to take it easy on him, especially because Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are good options.

Dave the Falconer: I noticed that Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush were all limited in practice. Who among them will play this weekend? Please answer as if you were Alex Trebek.

Saintsational: To be sure, the answer we were looking for was, "They will all probably dress this Sunday." We would have also accepted, "The Roaring Twenties will roar on."

Dave the Falconer: Haha. We would also have accepted "Potent Potables."

Saintsational: The Penis Mightier for $27,000, Trebek!

Dave the Falconer: I'll take The Rapist for $200. That's therapist, Mr. Connery!

Saintsational: Ohhhh, that's good stuff.

Dave the Falconer: Almost as good as the game that will be played this Sunday! Speaking of which...How does Robert Meachem keep scoring? It seems as though Marques Colston is the target on a lot of tough passes, but Meachem finds his way into the end zone frequently. How do we stop him?

Saintsational: You can't stop him. You can only hope to contain him. I love Robert Meachem.

Dave the Falconer: If you love him so much, why don't you marry him? Aside from the fact that it's not legal in Louisiana?

Saintsational: I would. Dave, if loving Robert Meachem is wrong, I don't want to be right.

Dave the Falconer: This took an unexpected turn.

Saintsational: Seriously, everybody has a man-thing for Drew but I think Robert Meachem is winning some admirers.Seriously, though, it's like Payton said a couple of weeks ago...he just has a knack for making things happen and Payton has resigned himself to incorporating Meachem more. If he's available in your fantasy league, pick him up. And with Colston in the mix as well, it's tough for teams to cover. Not only that, there's Devery Henderson and Jeremy Shockey to account for. Meachem has been the beneficiary of all that depth lately.

Dave the Falconer: He's been stealing touchdowns from Colston for me. So I think they should call him Robber Filchem. That's just me, though.

Saintsational: My favorite nickname for him is Pontchartrain Meach. That's a reference to old school New Orleans.

Dave the Falconer: Whoa...Whoa.

Saintsational: I was going to ask you before...how do you expect the Falcons to be able to beat the Saints without Ryan and Turner?

Dave the Falconer: Simple. Run the ball frequently. Wear down your defense. And count on Redman to deliver short passes that carve up your secondary. Either that or bar the door out of the locker room.

Saintsational: We're talking about Chris Redman?

Dave the Falconer: Yup.

Dave the Falconer: Or as I like to call him...Cristobal Rojohombre.

Saintsational: Ha. That's funny 'cause it's a different language.

Dave the Falconer: I knew you'd get it.

Saintsational: Over on The Falcoholic you've got this game listed as a "Season Definer" and list it as "Serious Business." Are you still hopeful for a playoff berth?

Dave the Falconer: I'm hopeful. But I don't think it's particularly realistic at this point. A winning season is still within our grasp, however.

Dave the Falconer: What do you think of the possibility of an undefeated season? Should the Saints go for it? And I just died a little inside typing that.

Saintsational: Yes, I think they should go for it. And they will go for it. Payton has said so and Brees has said so. They are going for it and I couldn't be happier. It's getting really exciting. Now that it's so close and a real possibility, I really want them to get it. That's why last weeks game was such a heartpounder. Every game they win makes that first eventual loss that much worse.

Dave the Falconer: It should be a good game, then. We played you guys reasonably tough earlier in the season.

Saintsational: Yeah, I'm definitely concerned. Mainly because of the Saints defense.

Dave the Falconer: Why, does your defense have more problems than a mathematician's diary? More "Ohnos" than Yoko's family?

Saintsational: Last week against the Redskins they looked like last years defense.. I'm affraid it's getting slightly overlooked because of all the success of the team but with starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter out for a little bit, their absence is becoming evident. I'm hoping Greer returns this week. But they won't get very far looking like they did last week. That's why I am glad Redman is getting the start.

Dave the Falconer: Oh yeah? Well.... >:-(

Saintsational: With all of the Falcons injuries, has any player stepped up and surprised fans? Any insider fantasy tips?

Dave the Falconer: Gonzo's always a good choice. And so is Roddy White. Beyond that, there aren't any surprises that are worthwhile from a fantasy perspective. We all love Eric "Special" Weems. He's a great kick returner.

Saintsational: No players that have stepped up and surprised?

Dave the Falconer: Not in recent weeks. Did you see the Eagles game?

Dave the Falconer: Yeesh.

Saintsational: Yeah, that's true. Sorry, you're still sensitive.

Dave the Falconer: I'm a Falcons fan. I was born sensitive.

Saintsational: Tell Saints fans something surprising/interesting about the Falcons that we probably don't know.

Dave the Falconer: Our points for and points against averages are both 23.3, and we're 6-6. So if nothing else, we're remarkably consistent.

Dave the Falconer: Same question, but for the Saints.

Saintsational: Sean Payton and Drew Brees are members of the same fraternity.

Saintsational: I guess we'll end it as we usually do...with a prediction. This will not count toward your three predictions in our weekly prediction contest this friday.

Dave the Falconer: Gosh darnit. I predict (foolishly) a 27-24 Falcons win. Based on nothing but gumption. You?

Saintsational: I think it will be close but the Saints will be on top. Let's go with 35-32 Saints.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Chat with the Enemy

Saintsational — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:23 -0000

You'll remember the last time the Saints played the Falcons Dave the Falconer and I had a casual, light-hearted chat about our two teams. The result was a pretty funny back-and-forth I think many of you enjoyed. Since these discussions with DTF are always my personal favorite as well, I wasn't going to miss the opportunity for one more whacky conversation. Thanks to Dave for taking the time to talk with me.

Saintsational: Alright. Let's get this started.

Dave the Falconer: Indeed.

Saintsational: I'm sure you want to ask me what it's like being the fan of such an awesome team.

Dave the Falconer: Well, first I'd have to ask why you switched to being a Falcons fan. Seems pretty disloyal to me. But for the sake of humoring you, what's it like to be a Saints fan right now?

Saintsational: Well, the Saints are kind of a big deal right now. Seriously though, I can't really say enough. It's hard to express in words. This is something we've all been waiting for years to happen. I told you earlier that it's like everyone in the city drops ecstacy on Sunday and the high lasts all week.

Dave the Falconer: I certainly am envious of the success this season.

Saintsational: Did you see Drew on Jay Leno earlier tonight?

Dave the Falconer: No, I was busy driving through what we New Englanders like to call "a minor inconvenience."

Saintsational: Inconvenience? Is that traffic? Or snow?

Dave the Falconer: Big ol' snowstorm.

Saintsational: Oh, well, your loss dude.

Dave the Falconer: Is Drew a rock star-type figure in New Orleans at this point?

Saintsational: I don't know about rock star. Maybe more like Tiger Woods before his multiple extramarital affairs.

Dave the Falconer: So a cello star, maybe?

Saintsational: I will say this...we're having an election for mayor here in New Orleans next year. If he ran, he would win. Hands down. Wouldn't even need a run-off.

Dave the Falconer: He's probably also most qualified.

Saintsational: Haha. I'm laughing because it's true. I'm also crying...because it's true.

Dave the Falconer: You should probably see a therapist.

Saintsational: Drew's not as popular in New Orleans as Michael Vick is in Atlanta apparently. What's up with that?

Dave the Falconer: That's a cheap shot, my friend.

Saintsational: Door was open. Wiiiiiiiiiiiide open.

Dave the Falconer: There's still a large and vocal contingent of fans who I would say are equally or more attached to Vick than they are to the Falcons. You saw the results last Sunday.

Saintsational: Why? Matt Ryan is pretty darn good.

Dave the Falconer: I'm not licensed to psychoanalyze an entire fan base. So I'll just say...

Dave the Falconer: Hey! Look over there! :O

Saintsational: Where? I don't see anything...

Saintsational: Oh well, let's move on. Are the Saints going to have the good fortune of not seeing Matt Ryan on Sunday? Please answer Magic-8 ball style.

Dave the Falconer: Outlook hazy. Try again.

Saintsational: Damnit. I hate these things...Are the Saints going to have the good fortune of not seeing Matt Ryan on Sunday?

Dave the Falconer: Outlook good. Instead, you'll face off against the awesome might of Chris Redman.

Saintsational: Seriously? No Matt Ryan?

Dave the Falconer: Seriously. The coaching staff is saying they won't play Ryan without injured linemen Sam Baker and Harvey Dahl. Something about not getting him killed. I'm a bit hazy on the details.

Saintsational: Really? That's pretty interesting. It's funny, because that means they don't give a flying you know what about Redman. That must make him feel good.

Dave the Falconer: He used to sell insurance. I'm presuming he has some.

Saintsational: Ha! Alright, more injury questions. What about Turner? Please answer this one fortune cookie style.

Dave the Falconer: Michael Turner are find true love only in playing field. Lucky Numbers: 4 775 33 666. Learn To Speak Chinese: *&@#*$& is Boat.

Saintsational: You've outdone yourself with that one. So you think he'll play?

Dave the Falconer: Actually, I'm doubtful he will. Damn fortune cookie format. I think the coaching staff has to take it easy on him, especially because Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are good options.

Dave the Falconer: I noticed that Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell and Reggie Bush were all limited in practice. Who among them will play this weekend? Please answer as if you were Alex Trebek.

Saintsational: To be sure, the answer we were looking for was, "They will all probably dress this Sunday." We would have also accepted, "The Roaring Twenties will roar on."

Dave the Falconer: Haha. We would also have accepted "Potent Potables."

Saintsational: The Penis Mightier for $27,000, Trebek!

Dave the Falconer: I'll take The Rapist for $200. That's therapist, Mr. Connery!

Saintsational: Ohhhh, that's good stuff.

Dave the Falconer: Almost as good as the game that will be played this Sunday! Speaking of which...How does Robert Meachem keep scoring? It seems as though Marques Colston is the target on a lot of tough passes, but Meachem finds his way into the end zone frequently. How do we stop him?

Saintsational: You can't stop him. You can only hope to contain him. I love Robert Meachem.

Dave the Falconer: If you love him so much, why don't you marry him? Aside from the fact that it's not legal in Louisiana?

Saintsational: I would. Dave, if loving Robert Meachem is wrong, I don't want to be right.

Dave the Falconer: This took an unexpected turn.

Dave the Falconer: He's been stealing touchdowns from Colston for me. So I think they should call him Robber Filchem. That's just me, though.

Saintsational: My favorite nickname for him is Pontchartrain Meach. That's a reference to old school New Orleans.

Dave the Falconer: Whoa...Whoa.

Saintsational: I was going to ask you before...how do you expect the Falcons to be able to beat the Saints without Ryan and Turner?

Dave the Falconer: Simple. Run the ball frequently. Wear down your defense. And count on Redman to deliver short passes that carve up your secondary. Either that or bar the door out of the locker room.

Saintsational: We're talking about Chris Redman?

Dave the Falconer: Yup.

Dave the Falconer: Or as I like to call him...Cristobal Rojohombre.

Saintsational: Ha. That's funny 'cause it's a different language.

Dave the Falconer: I knew you'd get it.

Saintsational: Over on The Falcoholic you've got this game listed as a "Season Definer" and list it as "Serious Business." Are you still hopeful for a playoff berth?

Dave the Falconer: I'm hopeful. But I don't think it's particularly realistic at this point. A winning season is still within our grasp, however.

Dave the Falconer: What do you think of the possibility of an undefeated season? Should the Saints go for it? And I just died a little inside typing that.

Dave the Falconer: It should be a good game, then. We played you guys reasonably tough earlier in the season.

Saintsational: Yeah, I'm definitely concerned. Mainly because of the Saints defense.

Dave the Falconer: Why, does your defense have more problems than a mathematician's diary? More "Ohnos" than Yoko's family?

Saintsational: Last week against the Redskins they looked like last years defense. I'm affraid it's getting slightly overlooked because of all the success of the team but with starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter out for a little bit, their absence is becoming evident. I'm hoping Greer returns this week. But they won't get very far looking like they did last week. That's why I am glad Redman is getting the start.

Dave the Falconer: Oh yeah? Well.... >:-(

Saintsational: With all of the Falcons injuries, has any player stepped up and surprised fans? Any insider fantasy tips?

Dave the Falconer: Gonzo's always a good choice. And so is Roddy White. Beyond that, there aren't any surprises that are worthwhile from a fantasy perspective. We all love Eric "Special" Weems. He's a great kick returner.

Saintsational: No players that have stepped up and surprised?

Dave the Falconer: Not in recent weeks. Did you see the Eagles game?

Dave the Falconer: Yeesh.

Saintsational: Yeah, that's true. Sorry, you're still sensitive.

Dave the Falconer: I'm a Falcons fan. I was born sensitive.

Saintsational: Tell Saints fans something surprising/interesting about the Falcons that we probably don't know.

Dave the Falconer: Our points for and points against averages are both 23.3, and we're 6-6. So if nothing else, we're remarkably consistent.

Dave the Falconer: Same question, but for the Saints.

Saintsational: Sean Payton and Drew Brees are members of the same fraternity.

Saintsational: I guess we'll end it as we usually do...with a prediction. This will not count toward your three predictions in our weekly prediction contest this friday.

Dave the Falconer: Gosh darnit. I predict (foolishly) a 27-24 Falcons win. Based on nothing but gumption. You?

Saintsational: I think it will be close but the Saints will be on top. Let's go with 35-32 Saints.

A Look Ahead: Get Your Falcohol

tlozwarlock — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 04:00:15 -0000

Preface:

Now that I've set the tone...

New Orleans Saints 2: The Season Definer
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 13th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game

Importance: Serious Business.

Notes: See what 'Bama did to ol' Timmy Tebow last Saturday? Yeah, that's gonna be Brees this weekend. GET READY TO CRY, DREW.

The Falcons win if: ... there ain't no if's anymore. Falcons have been to the bottom of the barrel and they're going to be blasting their way out.

The Saints win if: ... no ifs here, either. Saints have about as much chance to win as I've got to win Miss America.

Final Score: Eleventybillion to two. Yeah, John Parker gives them a mercy safety by sitting down in the endzone willfully at the end of the game. Just to let them leave with an teensy bit of pride.

New York Jets
Where: Giants Stadium
When: Sunday December 20th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Because New Yorkers couldn’t get enough of us the first go round against the Giants.

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Sanchez, manchez. Matty Ice turns the field into an ice rink and plays hockey the only way he knows how: forechecking the defense.

The Falcons win if: ... What did I say about "if" 's? There ain't none. It's all gravy, baby.

The Jets win if: ... Peyton Manning, in a maniacal fit of fail, dresses up like Sanchez for his latest Direct TV commercial.

Score prediction: 255 to 17. The stadium is so old it only counts up to the max hexadecimal numerical value, ala old school Madden. Falcons' TDs stop scoring points midway through second quarter.

Buffalo Bills
Where: Georgia Dome
When: Sunday December 27th, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: CBS
Why: The Bills aren't looking too good. Uh oh...

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: If you think for one minute that the Falcons' forgot your Christmas present, think again. It's just a little late comin'.

Prediction: Falcons win.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers With a Vengeance
Where: Raymond James Stadium
When: Sunday January 3rd, 2009 @ 1:00pm
Network: FOX
Why: Divisional Game

Importance: Serious Business

Notes: Tampa rolls over on this one, desperately wanting to have been only the second team to ever go 1-15

Prediction: Falcons win

Current season record: PUSH

Current season prediction: WIN

tlozwarlock's Current Prediction record: WIN

...

I drank up. What's your excuse?

Saints @ Falcons: Official Wednesday Injury Report

Saintsational — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:37:02 -0000

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Practice Report
	DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	LB Scott Fujita (knee), CB Jabari Greer (groin), LB Marvin Mitchell (hamstring), CB Tracy Porter (knee)

	LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	RB Mike Bell (knee), RB Reggie Bush (knee), T Jermon Bushrod (thumb), TE Darnell Dinkins (foot), DT Sedrick Ellis (knee), G Jahri Evans (toe), CB Randall Gay (hamstring), C Jonathan Goodwin (ankle), RB Lynell Hamilton (shoulder), DE Bobby McCray (knee), WR Lance Moore (ankle, hamstring), RB Pierre Thomas (quadricep), LB Jonathan Vilma (knee), S Usama Young (hip, calf)

ATLANTA FALCONS

Practice Report
	DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	G Harvey Dahl (ankle), CB Chris Houston (hamstring), C Todd McClure (knee), TE Justin Peelle (head), QB Matt Ryan (toe), RB Michael Turner (ankle)

	LIMITED PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	DT Jonathan Babineaux (shoulder), T Sam Baker (elbow), WR Michael Jenkins (ankle), T Will Svitek (ankle), WR Roddy White (knee)

	FULL PARTICIPATION IN PRACTICE
	Wednesday	CB Christopher Owens (shoulder)

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

24 days ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

Browse more photos »

I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

A Statistical Look at the Atlanta Falcons Offense

Saintsational — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:00:15 -0000

Season Stats

	*Atlanta*	*Saints Opponents*
Total First Downs	251	228
Rushing	76	80
Passing	148	127
Penalty	27	21
3rd Down: Made/Att	64/156	59/164
3rd Down Pct.	41.0%	36.0%
4th Down: Made/Att	12/16	10/20
4th Down Pct.	75.0%	50.0%
Possession Avg.	29:29	28:11
Total Net Yards	4029	4127
Avg. Per Game	335.8	343.9
Total Plays	782	785
Avg. Per Play	5.2	5.3
Net Yards Rushing	1361	1367
Avg. Per Game	113.4	113.9
Total Rushes	328	307
Net Yards Passing	2668	2760
Avg. Per Game	222.3	230.0
Sacked/Yards Lost	22/101	26/153
Gross Yards	2769	2913
Attempts/Completions	432/252	452/250
Completion Pct.	58.3%	55.3%
Had Intercepted	14	23

Team Scoring

Touchdowns	35
Rushing	14
Passing	19
Returns	2

Score By Periods	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Pts
Team	62	100	39	78	0	279

Offensive Ranking and Comparison

Team	Yds / Game	Yds / Play	Rush Yds / Game	Rush Yds / Play	Pass Yds / Game	Pass Yds / Play	Int. Rate	Sacks / Pass Att.	First Downs / Game	Punt Return Avg	Kickoff Return Avg	Field Goals Made	3rd Down Pct	4th Down Pct	Red Zone Pct	Goal to Go%	Avg Time of Poss.	Pts / Game
ATL	335.8	5.15	113.4	4.15	222.3	6.18	3.24%	5.09%	20.9	9.9	24.8	63.16%	41.03%	75.00%	56.10%	86.96%	29:29	23.3
Rank	16	19	15	19	15	20	24	7	6	8	7	31	13	2	9	1	17	10t
NO Defensive Ranking	18	15	20	25	22	8	3	23	18t	32	26	--	9	15t	4	4	--	16

Individual Statistics

Passing	Att	Cmp	Yds	Cmp%	Yds/Att	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Long	Sack	Lost	Rating
M.Ryan	347	206	2291	59.4%	6.6	16	4.6%	12	3.5%	90t	15/	67	80.0
C.Redman	85	46	478	54.1%	5.6	3	3.5%	2	2.4%	35	7/	34	72.6
Team	432	252	2769	58.3%	6.4	19	4.4%	14	3.2%	90t	22/	101	78.6

Rushing	No.	Yds	Avg	Long	TD
M.Turner	177	864	4.9	58t	10
J.Snelling	76	302	4.0	31	3
J.Norwood	36	118	3.3	18	0
M.Ryan	27	48	1.8	7	1
E.Weems	4	17	4.3	8	0
A.Stecker	2	6	3.0	6	0
C.Redman	4	3	0.8	5	0
R.White	1	2	2.0	2	0
O.Mughelli	1	1	1.0	1	0
Team	328	1361	4.1	58t	14

Receiving	No.	Yds	Avg	Long	TD
T.Gonzalez	69	738	10.7	27	5
R.White	65	874	13.4	90t	8
M.Jenkins	40	466	11.7	29	0
J.Snelling	19	162	8.5	21	1
J.Norwood	12	107	8.9	22t	1
B.Finneran	9	86	9.6	17	0
J.Peelle	9	77	8.6	23	1
M.Booker	8	93	11.6	27	0
E.Weems	5	47	9.4	30t	2
M.Turner	5	35	7.0	10	0
A.Stecker	5	34	6.8	14	0
O.Mughelli	3	30	10.0	21	1
V.Haynes	3	20	6.7	10	0
K.Zinger	0	0	0	0	0
Team	252	2769	11.0	90t	19

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

4 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Browse more photos »

"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: Game Preview

Saintsational — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:27 -0000

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (12-0) AT ATLANTA FALCONS (6-6)

SERIES

	SAINTS	FALCONS
SERIES LEADER		44-36
STREAKS	6 of past 7
COACHES VS. OPP.	Payton: 6-1	Smith: 1-2
LAST WEEK	W 33-30 (OT) at Redskins	L 34-7 vs. Eagles
LAST GAME	11/2/09: Falcons 27 at Saints 35. New Orleans QB Drew Brees throws for 308 yards & 2 TDs as Saints tie best start in franchise history at 7-0.
LAST GAME AT SITE	11/9/08: Falcons 34, Saints 20. Atlanta rookie QB Matt Ryan throws for 248 yards & 2 TDs, including 67-yarder to RB Jerious Norwood, as Falcons improve to 4-0 at home.
BROADCAST	FOX (1:00 PM ET): Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver (Field reporter). SIRIUS: 126 (NO), 153 (Atl.). XM: 103 (NO).

STATS

PASSING	Brees: 271-392-3,536 (1C)-29 (1L)-10-111.3 (1L)	Ryan: 206-347-2,291-16-12-80.0 OR Redman: 46-85-478-3-2-72.6
RUSHING	P. Thomas: 122-666-5.5-5	Turner: 177-864-4.9-10 (3L)
RECEIVING	Colston: 50-854-17.1-8	Gonzalez (TE): 69-738-10.7-5
OFFENSE	429.0 (1L)	335.8
TAKE/GIVE	+15 (2L)	-1
DEFENSE	343.9	374.4
SACKS	Smith: 10 (2C)	Babineaux, Biermann: 5
INTs	Sharper: 8 (T1L)	DeCoud, Grimes: 2
PUNTING	Morstead (R): 42.9	Koenen: 43.2
KICKING	Carney: 89 (50/52 PAT; 13/17 FG)	Bryant: 1 (1/1 PAT; 0/0 FG)

NOTES

SAINTS: Are 12-0 for 1st time in team history. Clinched NFC South last week...QB DREW BREES has won 6 of 7 starts vs. Atl. since joining NO in 2006. In past 4 vs. division, Brees has 106.8 rating. Since 2008, Brees has started 16 games indoors & has won 13. In those 16, he has passed for 5,217 yards (326.1 per game), 44 TDs, 13 INTs & 113.9 rating...RB-PR REGGIE BUSH aims for 4th in row vs. Atl. with TD (2 rec., 1 rush). RB PIERRE THOMAS aims for 3rd in row vs. Atl. with rush & rec. TD. Has 4 TDs (2 rush, 2 rec.) in past 2 meetings & 193 rush yards (96.5 per game)...WR MARQUES COLSTON has 10 rec. TDs in past 9 Dec. games. WR ROBERT MEACHEM aims for 6th in row with TD. Had 8 catches for 142 yards & TD last week. Also had 44-yard FR-TD...DE WILL SMITH has 7.5 sacks in past 6. S DARREN SHARPER has 57 INTs, 1,309 INT return yards & 9 INT-TDs since 2000, most in NFL...

FALCONS: QB MATT RYAN is 12-1 (.923) at home. In only meeting at home vs. NO, Ryan had 134 rating. QB CHRIS REDMAN threw for 298 yards in only start vs. NO...RB MICHAEL TURNER aims for 4th in row vs. NO with rush TD. Has 27 rush TDs since joining Atl. in 2008, most in NFL. Has 360 rush yards (180 per game) in past 2 Dec. games with 20+ att. RB JERIOUS NORWOOD had 67-yard TD catch in last home game vs. NO...WR RODDY WHITE has TD in 4 of past 5 vs. NO. Aims for 3rd in row vs. NO with 100+ yards. TE TONY GONZALEZ has 25 catches in past 3. WR MICHAEL JENKINS aims for 6th in row vs. NO with 4+ catches & 65+ yards...S THOMAS DE COUD had sack with FF & DE KROY BIERMANN had FR-TD in last meeting. DE JOHN ABRAHAM had career-high 4 sacks vs. NO (11/4/01 with NYJ). DT JONATHAN BABINEAUX has 4.5 sacks in past 6 games. CB CHEVIS JACKSON had 95-yard INT-TD in last home meeting.

Gary Kubiak: What To Do?

Jake — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:04:57 -0000

More photos » by Stephen Morton - AP

Browse more photos »

The 2009 NFL season was supposed to be the breakout year for the Houston Texans. After two 8-8 seasons, they seemed primed for the franchise's first playoff season. Now, sitting at 5-7, the playoffs are not a possibility and the focus has shifted to embattled head coach Gary Kubiak.

Gary Kubiak is the second head coach of the Houston Texans. He was hired in 2006 to replace Dom Capers, who lead the expansion franchise to an 18-46 record over the first four years, including a 2-14 record in 2005. The move to Kubiak made sense. Kubiak is a Houston native who played college ball in the state of Texas before a 19 year playing and coaching career with the Denver Broncos, one of the best offensive teams of the last quarter century.

Something has gone awry. The hometown man has not been bad, but he certainly hasn't been good either. He currently has 27-33 record as a head coach and is on pace for a third consecutive .500 season (or maybe even worse). Anyone who has watched this team knows that it is capable of much more; six of the seven losses were winnable in the closing quarter of the game, yet the Texans came up short. Many speculate that this lack of "closing games" may cost Kubiak his job.

Many Texans fans feel this Kubiak's ouster is the right course of action. The NFL is an instant gratification league, and fans demand results. When the average Houston fan looks around at the turnaround success that Atlanta, Baltimore and Miami all experienced on the shoulders of first year head coaches last year, it's hard to feel loyalty to a coach that hasn't managed a playoff season in four years when those three coaches managed to do it in one.

What has killed Kubiak are the other AFC South teams. While the Kubiak-led Texans are a decent 20-16 against the rest of the league, they are an abysmal 7-17 against the Colts, Jaguars and Titans. For a team to be successful, they must at least break even in their division, something that the Texans have done only once since Kubiak's hire. Ironically, that .500 year was in 2006, which was the only season Kubiak managed less than 8-8 for the season.

As I implied earlier, Kubiak was hired for his offensive expertise. As a former quarterback, coach of that same position, and offensive coordinator, he certainly had the right pedigree. In 2006 he attempted to make that offense work with former first round pick David Carr. After finishing 28th in total offense with Carr, Kubiak and his general manager Rick Smith, who Kubiak brought with him from Denver, traded two second round picks in consecutive years for Atlanta backup quarterback Matt Schaub. Since that trade, the Texans finished 14th in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and are currently ranked 8th in total offense.

So on the offensive front the Texans have improved drastically under Kubiak. Unfortunately, the defense has not fared as well. Former defensive coordinator Richard Smith led an anemic defense that could not keep up with the offensive improvement. Many Texans fans were encouraged by the firing of Richard Smith, and the subsequent hiring of Frank Bush, another Kubiak colleague from his days in Denver. Bush, along with first-round pick and defensive rookie of the year candidate Brian Cushing, have given new life into the defense, which now ranks 16th.

Rankings are all well and good, but the one statistic that matters in the NFL is wins. You would assume a team that ranks 8th in total offense and 16th in total defense is a playoff caliber team; the Texans, however, find themselves effectively eliminated from that race. This leads us back to not closing games when they matter, something usually attributed to coaching. As stated, this attribute may cost him his job at the end of the season.

I personally think that firing Kubiak after the 2009 campaign would be a huge mistake. He is definitely not perfect, and this season has been the football equivalent of a root canal for me and all Texans fans. Consider, though, what replacing Kubiak would entail. It has been rumored that owner Bob McNair would be interested in a defensive-minded head coach. So what would that mean?

Kubiak runs a unique offense that relies on a smaller, zone blocking offensive line. Bill Cowher has been named as a potential suitor. Cowher was known as a power running coach, something that would require new offensive lineman and new running backs. The only other "established" head coach is Mike Shanahan, but you might as well forget about that possibility because even though his son is currently offensive coordinator, it is unlikely that he would step in to replace his friend and former protégé. The other option is a first-time head coach who is currently a defensive coordinator. While that move may or may not work to improve the defense, it is still unknown what would happen to the offense because without Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan would likely leave to coach with his father, who will undoubtedly be given a job somewhere.

There's more though. What happens to GM Rick Smith if Kubiak is canned? While Kubiak's performance can be questioned, it is obvious that Smith has done a phenomenal job to undo the damage done by former GM Charlie Casserly. There are only a handful of players left from the Casserly regime, which is not a coincidence. This roster was so devoid of talent when Smith took over that a complete re-tooling was necessary. Smith has traded for a QB who is arguably one of the top ten in the league, drafted key players including three Pro Bowlers, and brought in some (yes, just some) good free agent acquisitions, such as Antonio Smith.

I feel that it is a fact that Kubiak and Smith have improved this team significantly. It is possible that Kubiak is incapable of being a great coach because of his handling of game situations necessary for winning games late. We don't know that though; at this point it is just speculation. I think it's worth the risk of another gut-wrenching, underperforming season to validate that suspicion. Keep in mind that Kubiak still has a chance to lead the Texans to their first winning season ever this season, albeit a slim one. Even if that doesn't happen, and he produces yet another mediocre season, I say give him one more chance. We haven't seen enough failure yet to justify another complete do-over.

Oh, by the way, the resurgent Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens that had sharp turnarounds last year are all currently 6-6 and out of the playoffs as of right now. I would forgo instant gratification in exchange for sustained success. What about you?