SB Nation - Chicago Bears

Packers: Tuesday Practice and No. 1 Ranked Defense

Brandon — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:00:36 -0000

There was not a lot going on during the Green Bay Packers first practice since their game against the Lions.

Rob Demovsky did a good job complying some quotes from players re: the news that they have the No. 1 ranked defense. And yes, the defense really is that good, so agrees Football Outsiders.

It's funny about the rankings at FO: they have a nearly identical ranking against the pass (-16.3%, No. 3 overall) as against the run (-16.5%, No. 3 overall). At FO, a negative ranking is good for defense and usually one unit is better than the other. For example, the Jets and Eagles have great defenses (both in the top 5), but for both teams, their pass defense is excellent while their run defense is closer to average. The Saints are No. 5 overall, but their league best pass defense is being dragged down by one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

And the rankings at FO have taken into account that the Packers D has played some of the worst offenses in the NFL (Browns, Lions (twice), Rams, Bears, Bucs). If you look at the shaded column to the right here (follow the link), the defense's actual overall ranking without opponent adjustment is -22.6%, which is several percentage points better than the next best defense: the Eagles at -15.8%.

The Bears Den: 12/02/09

Dane Noble — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:00:55 -0000

Where we're glad we get to play the Rams this Sunday.

Lance Briggs won't practice Wednesday, and is questionable for Sunday.

Brad Biggs answers reader mail... lots of Lovie issues.

Mike Mulligan: Only goal left is to evaluate the youth.

Potash: Could "super" coach turn team around?

Bears respond to Urlacher's comments.

Rozner: Rivera and Harbaugh should be on the Bears list.

Hall of Fame Semi-Finalists: Could this be the year for Dent?

Pace may not be able to go Sunday. Why is Shaffer the only backup OT on our roster?

Imrem: Lovie needs some vocal support from his bosses.

Something similar in the Bears and Rams: Turnovers.

The World's Strongest Beer: BrewDog's Tactical Nuclear Penguin

A Couple of Quick Notes

Gonzo — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 01:45:50 -0000

Sorry for the lack of updatery yesterday, folks. Had to finish my final paper for my most recent class and had a couple of other things get in the way, but here we are with a couple of quick notes, both at this past Sunday's domination of the Chicago Bears and a look ahead to the Vikings' next opponent, the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals.

To put it bluntly, the Vikings were amazingly dominant in the second half of Sunday's 36-10 victory over Chicago. How dominant? Here's how Chicago's four second half drives went:

Drive #1 - 3 plays, -12 yards (yes, minus twelve)
Drive #2 - 3 plays, 9 yards
Drive #3 - 3 plays, 3 yards
Drive #4 - 3 plays, -3 yards

Four three-and-outs, and a second half yardage total of minus three yards. As a result, the Vikings more than tripled the Bears' total yardage on the afternoon and remained the only one-loss team in the NFL.

In addition, Percy Harvin reached a personal milestone against the Bears with the first 100-yard receiving game of his career. His sixth catch, on which he got blasted by a member of the Chicago secondary, gave him 101 yards on the afternoon, and he also scored Minnesota's first touchdown of the day. Anyone remember when it was a mistake for the Vikings to draft this guy because he didn't know how to run routes properly? Yeah. . .neither do I.

Looking ahead to Sunday night, Cardinals' quarterback Kurt Warner, who missed Arizona's loss to the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday, is not a shoo-in to play against the Vikings, either. It all depends on how his recovery from a concussion comes along over the course of this week. In Warner's absence, the Cardinal offense is being run by Matt Leinart. As a rookie in 2006, Leinart led the Cardinals into the Metrodome and lit the Vikings up for over 400 yards, but in terms of the quality of the Vikings' defense, that seems like a lifetime ago. In the six quarters since Leinart took over for Warner, the Cardinals have scored ten offensive points. If Leinart starts on Sunday for the Cardinals, the Vikings job should become significantly easier.

In addition, if the Vikings should be victorious this Sunday, they will guarantee themselves a spot in the post-season for the second year in a row. They can clinch the division this week with a win on Sunday and a loss by the Packers to Baltimore on Monday night, but if they beat Arizona, they'll punch their ticket to the NFL's post-season tournament.

And that's everything for this evening, folks. . .just wanted to get a quick update out there to make sure everyone knew we were still alive. There will be something significantly more substantial tomorrow. Big thanks to everyone that hung out for the Monday night game last night, too. . .if the Saints keep winning, we might have to have more threads based on watching them.

Breaking News: Bears Sign LB Cato June

Dane Noble — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:03:25 -0000

First reported by Adam Schefter, the Bears have signed LB Cato June to a contract. The 6'0, 225 pound linebacker was drafted in the 6th round of the 2003 NFL Draft by the Indianapolis Colts. He spent 4 years with the Colts, and two years with the Buccaneers.

June was signed to a 1 year contract with the Texans in 2009, but placed on the IR in August after breaking his forearm. He was released with an injury settlement in September.

This news may signal that Lance Briggs may miss significant playing time after injuring his left knee in this past Sunday's loss to the Vikings.

From Jeff Dickerson:

If Briggs is going to be sidelined this week, or maybe for the remainder of the season, June seems like a logical candidate to contribute at weak-side linebacker. Jamar Williams filled in for the injured Briggs against the Vikings, and may also be in the mix if Briggs can’t go.

June certainly knows a thing or two about playing in a cover-2 defense. The linebacker spent four seasons in Tony Dungy’s system in Indianapolis, then moved on to Tampa Bay for two seasons, before breaking his forearm in Houston during the 2009 preseason.

Some Good News From Soldier Field: New Grass

Dane Noble — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:00:38 -0000

It may be a difficult task finding any bid of good news from Chicago these days regarding the Bears, but, we will take what we can get. Reports this afternoon inform us that the atrocious playing field is being re-sodded this week.

The playing surface at Soldier Field for the Bears-Rams game Sunday should be considerably better than it was a week and a half ago, as the entire field is being re-sodded.

The four-day re-sodding project is scheduled to be completed this afternoon. The sod has been growing in Sugar Grove and was trucked into Soldier Field over the weekend.

Some of the Bears and Eagles players had problems with their footing in their game Nov. 22 and complained about it afterward. Divots of turf kept coming up as players dug in their cleats.

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 12

TJ Johnson — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Jack Dempsey - AP

Giving Thanks!!!!

Browse more photos »

The Stats don't mean what they say on Thanksgiving, Mom. You know that. That's what the day's supposed to be all about, right? Torture.--Holly Hunter

Thanksgiving and football. It didn't get much better in Week 12. Like you and your family, some teams greedily feasted on the mashed potatoes (Dallas on Oakland), some teams kicked up their feet and loosened their belts (Green Bay feeling fat and bloated as they coasted over Detroit), and some teams simply went straight for the pumpkin pie (New Orleans tasting a sweet victory over New England).

Your Denver Broncos stuffed the New York Giants like turkeys.

Welcome to the Week 12 edition of The Stats that Don't Lie. These stats are your extra gravy. They are the statistical whipped cream that you squirt into your mouth right from the can. They are the stats that you think about as you ignore your in-laws and fall asleep on the couch. As always, they are Turnovers (giveaways to be truthful), Field Position, Time Of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

Before we jump in, you might have noticed that you are getting this edition on Tuesday rather than the normal Wednesday. That's because Ted Bartlett was feeling a little under the weather, so we decided to switch days. Ted should be well enough to bring you his Shallow Thoughts and Nearsighted Observations tomorrow.

Until then, you're getting stats. And you're going to like it. Don't make me send you to eat at the kids' table.

The View From the Airplane

The Turnover-Margin-Bar Graph rarely lies. I enjoy putting this up each week because if you take nothing else away from these columns (and that's quite likely), simply take this picture and burn it into your brain:

As always, I point out that I "normalized" the New England game to take away the Hail Mary interception.

Quick, go grab the dork in your office or dorm or cell (for fans of the Raiders) that knows nothing about football and show them this graph. Tell them that a positive margin is a good thing. Then ask them how many of these games they think the Broncos might have won. They will certainly guess six, at a minimum. And they'll wonder if New England was a tie. If there's one thing we've learned about this year's Denver Broncos, it's that they are going to live and die by turnover margin. While this is true of most teams, Denver seems to be particularly suited to the influence of turnovers (more on this later). In the case of the Giants game, if a team has a plus-2 turnover margin, they win 78% of the time. It's little wonder Denver took Eli and Company to the woodshed.

Here is where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league with respect to turnovers (giveways, but I hate this word more than the word "Cutler"), field position, time of possession, and 3rd-down efficiency:

Denver has improved in most areas from last week, in which they were 10th in turnovers (giveaways), 27th in field position, 22nd in time of possession, and 21st in 3rd-down efficiency.

As the greatest poet of his generation (or at least his after party) Bret Michaels, once said, "Every rose has its thorn." 3rd-down efficiency is the thorn for Denver. This is precisely one of the reasons the Broncos are a team that, unlike Indianapolis, can't overcome turnovers. Notice that Indianapolis leads the league in 3rd-down efficiency. It's this high percentage that allows them to overcome turnovers in the first half like they did against both New England and last week against Houston. If the Broncos can't improve this percentage on 3rd downs, a minus-1 turnover margin could doom them (and I don't mean Dumervil).

This brings me to the New Orleans Saints. Look at their rankings. They are 16th in turnovers, 3rd in field position, 9th in time of possession, and third in 3rd-down efficiency. How are they 11-0 with such a high turnover (giveaway) number/game?

It's because that are a clone of the Indianapolis Colts, only with better field position. In the case of both Indianapolis and New Orleans, time of possession really is incidental to their yards/play average. They are both quick-strike offenses (look for my Quick-Strike Index coming soon in another piece). Their drives are generally quicker, take less plays, and are deadlier to the other team. So the fact that they commit a turnover (or two) early in the game is not as big a deal as it would be for another team (hello, Denver!).

Turnovers, as we have noted, are not all created equal. A turnover committed early in the game is less valuable to the opponent than a turnover late (less time in the game means less options, obviously). So as long as Peyton Manning and Drew Brees aren't throwing picks in the 3rd and 4th quarters (which they are not), their teams' ability to get down the field quickly can easily overcome these early turnovers.

Some of you might be quick to note that last week I said I believed Minnesota was a better team than New Orleans. I still feel this way. Minnesota won't be at all intimidated by playing in a dome, and I really am inspired by Jared Allen's mullet. As far as the AFC goes, it's time that I accept the fate that is the Indianapolis Colts.

This weekly piece wouldn't be complete without again pointing out the Bears' ranking of field position. This week they rank 1st. Imagine what damage they could be doing if Jay Cutler's arm wasn't such a wishbone.

Week-12 Summaries:

There were several games worth mentioning, but let's start with Denver's. We've already noted the turnover margin, but it's also important to talk about field position. Remember, field position is fluid, so as the ball is advanced up the field, the expected points value changes. Denver essentially kept the Giants on their side of the field for most of the game. The Giants only entered Denver territory three times in the entire game and one was on the last drive when the game was essentially over. Mitch Berger and Matt Prater both had their best games of the season. All of this kept the Giants on their side of the field where the expected point values were much much lower (for those that are looking for an in-depth analysis of the fluidity and point expectation of field position, it's coming). This certainly contributed to Denver's victory.

Another game was Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore, but only because the stats lied again. Pittsburgh won all four categories, but Baltimore escaped with the victory in overtime. This is again a lesson in the context of turnovers. The later a turnover happens in a game, the more valuable (or damaging) it is. Again, a turnover in the first quarter can be overcome, especially with a quick-strike offense. However, in this case, the interception that Pittsburgh threw as they were entering Baltimore territory was in overtime (as late as you can get), and thus, the key to this game. Just how much was that turnover worth? Stats guys will tell you a turnover, no matter where it's committed, is worth 4 points. Given Pittsburgh's season at this point, one could argue from the heart that it was worth a lot more.

The final game of note was the Monday night affair between New Orleans and New England. First, New Orleans coach Sean Payton thinks so much of the 3rd-down efficiency stat that he decided to shove the stat for this in Suzy Kolber's face at halftime. As a stats guy, I think it's cute. Beats Joe Namath. Second, on the Patroit's second drive, they were seizing momentum until Brady threw the interception. From that point forward, things seemed to snowball on New England. The impact of turnovers on momentum can't be overstated. Third, on New Orleans' touchdowns, they had drives of 59, 75, 76, 74, and 75 yards. They averaged only 5 plays/per drive on these drives, and finally, their average yards/play was 14.36. In other words, the Saints can get the ball down the field in a BIG hurry. Talk about a quick-strike offense.

There are a few games 2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

5 teams had 0 turnovers. 3 won (60%); For the season, 56/70 (80%)
12 teams had 1 turnover. 9 won (75%); For the season, 57/99 (58%)
6 teams had 2 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 43/94 (46%)
5 teams had 3 turnovers. 1 won (20%); For the season, 13/50 (26%)
3 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/24 (17%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/9 (0%)

Week 12 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 14 of 16 games played (88%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (2 games) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 11 of the 16 games played (69%).
There were 5 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In 4 of the 5, the same team won on the scoreboard (80%). For the season, this stat is 52 out of 56 games. In only 2 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.13 turnovers, 32:07 in time of possession, 40.09% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 29.55 yard line.

Top 5 in Week 12:

Top 5 in giveaways: Dallas, Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Arizona are all tied with 0
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Minnesota 2.Cincinnati 3.Pittsburgh 4.Denver 5. San Diego
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Minnesota 2.Green Bay 3.San Francisco 4.Houston 5.Washington/Cincinnati
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Washington 2.Chicago 3.Cincinnati 4.Seattle 5.San Diego

Running Totals, Season (through 12 weeks):

176 games have been played this season
80.68% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
67.61% with a better time of possession
65.91% by the team who won on 3rd down
71.02% by the team that won the field-position battle.

12-week League Averages:

12-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.69

12-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

12-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.81%

12-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.68 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Kansas City, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.36 29:31 28.12 35.51%

Kansas City 1.36 29:10 30.11 22.21%

I'm downright giddy to watch Denver's defense destroy Kansas City on 3rd downs. Despite the fact that Kansas City generally doesn't turn the ball over, they also can't sustain drives. And unlike the Colts or Saints, they don't have the quick-strike ability to avoid 3rd downs. If Denver's 3rd-down defense holds true, they should be in excellent shape. As always, Denver must avoid turnovers.

What about playing in December in Kansas City? Is it the early gamet ime? The humidity? The crazy fans? I don't know. But Brian Dawkins is immune to it. And Josh McDaniels hasn't heard about it. And most important, the fans are probably still napping off their Thanksgiving, wishing Marty Schottenheimer had never left. Lucky for Bronco fans, he did. Playing against his teams was always tough.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 100% (percentage chance that Ryan Clady is a better draft pick than Branden Albert).

Another Potential Bears O.C., Weis, Martz and now ...

wiltfongjr — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:00:13 -0000

There is a constant theme of comments being left on the threads of the series I'm doing looking at possible new offensive coordinators for the Bears. Many are wondering, why hire a new OC instead of a new coach. And some are even looking for a complete overhaul, from GM on down.

At this point in the season, even with as bad as things have gone, I still don't see them launching Lovie Smith. It's not in the character of the franchise to eat a contract as big as Smith's or Jerry Angelo's for that matter. The odds say that if a move is made it'll be one of the assistants that is canned. Look at the last few years and the coaching turnover on the defense. It's logical to assume that someone on the offense will be fired after this season. Sorry Ron Turner. It's possible the Bears will clean house, and depending on the remaining games, it may even make the most sense. But until we see how the '09 season plays out, there's no way to know. In the mean time speculating on a new offensive coordinator will have to suffice.

After the jump I'll look at another potential candidate, one with Denver Bronco ties, but not one of the names you'd expect.

Gary Kubiak has been on the hot seat for a couple years now. Every time a "hot seat" list is compiled the Houston Texans coach is on it. I don't exactly agree with it as he's had some injury issues and he plays in a tough division, but .500 seasons just aren't acceptable in this day and age of the NFL. He had another tough home loss this week and is sitting at 5-6. The Texans have some winnable games on their remaining schedule, but if they don't sneak into the playoffs I think they'll make a change at the top.

If Kubiak is fired he could be in the hunt for an NFL head coaching job, and he'll no doubt receive some offers from a few colleges, but I see him as an NFL lifer. He'll look to get into the best possible situation for himself and coaching Jay Cutler would appeal to him. He runs a very similar offense to the one he coordinated in Denver under Mike Shanahan, a more run heavy variation of the West Coast offense, and it's an offense that Cutler would be familiar with. He even joked upon his hiring by the Texans that his playbook will only be in a different shade of blue. Even though Kubiak likes that power running style of the old Bronco teams, he isn't afraid to put the ball in the air and utilize the talents of his quarterback.

He coached Steve Young to his best season while the QB coach in San Francisco, and had John Elway playing the best football of his career while coaching in Denver. He coached Brian Griese to a Pro Bowl season and helped Jake Plummer get his name in the Bronco record books. And his offense in Houston has never been the reason they aren't winning more games, Matt Schaub (when healthy) puts up really good numbers.

Gary Kubiak knows offensive football and would be an outstanding fit in Chicago.

The Bears Den: 12/01/09

Dane Noble — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 10:00:18 -0000

Where we wonder if there really will be changes in 2010...

Injuries made defeat to Minny even worse.

Lovie Smith not addressing future beyond short-term.

Wiltfongjr sounds off.

Biggs: 10 reasons the Bears were brutal.

Quick Hits: Cowher and Weis

Dane Noble — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 20:05:18 -0000

Courtesy of WCG'er Just Dave, there's a couple of stories worth mentioning in BearsLand this afternoon:

First, even more talk about the Bears reaching out to Bill Cowher.

Second, reports that Charlie Weis is finished in South Bend.

After seeing the Bears completely manhandled in 6 of their past 7 games, upper management might be getting a bit restless. I know the fan base is.

Helmet-tip to smudgers for the pic!

Notes, Scribbles, and Things Jotted Down: Vikings Edition

Dane Noble — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 14:10:09 -0000

by Jerry Holt - AP

View full size photo »

To end a holiday weekend with Chicago Bears football was probably disappointing for most, but we shouldn't have been surprised at the results. We knew coming in to this game that the Bears were not playing like a very good football team, and that the Vikings were.

If anything, seeing the Bears not even be able to compete with the Vikes should just bring us one step closer to seeing change in Halas Hall.

I was traveling all day yesterday, and was having to depend upon the cell phone to get the play-by-play action, so I couldn't get too much of a feel for what was really going on in the trenches. I've seen the stats, but would like to know more. Can you help?

Let's break the game down into units, and assign a school grade to each. Let me know how each unit performed last night, and if there were any bright spots within:

Offensive Line: Pass coverage/ run blocking

Wide Receivers: Good catches/ drops/ route running

RBs: Were the holes even there?

QB: The good, bad, and ugly

Defensive line: pass rush/ run stuffing/ rotation

- How was Tommie and gaines?

Defensive backs: any bright spots?

Linebackers: Did Williams get worked in at all? Did HH look 100% healthy?

Coaching: Offense, Defense, STs