SB Nation - Denver Broncos

No Huddle not exactly No Problem for the Broncos against the Colts

John Bena — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:56:52 -0000

The Broncos have had their struggles against the no-huddle offense this season, specifically starting with the game in Baltimore against the Ravens. Several teams during the 4-game losing streak did much of the same, keeping the Broncos from doing what they like to do on defense - rotate several players in and out, especially along the defensive line, depending on down and distance. Of course, no quarterback may be better at running a no huddle than Peyont Manning, who seemingly spends much of the game calling plays from the line of scrimmage.

The topic seemed like a good one to pass along to Frank Schwab, who covers the Broncos for the Colorado Springs Gazette. Schwab, who often asks fans via his Twitter Page(@fs3142) for their suggestions, was nice enough to report on what Josh McDaniels said when asked about the no huddle.

Broncos coach Josh McDaniels had a pretty blunt response when asked about defending Indianapolis' no-huddle offense, basically conceding that Denver won't be able to freely substitute because of the threat.

"We're not going to try to run a bunch of guys in and out the game," McDaniels said. "Nobody does against this team and we're not going to try to do it either."

One of the reasons teams have hurried up against the Broncos is to stop their substitutions. The Broncos rotate defensive linemen, and on passing situations bring in linebackers Wesley Woodyard and Robert Ayers and cornerback Ty Law. When McDaniels was asked how it would affect the defense if it can't substitute often, he again said it wasn't a viable option.

"We will not try to do something that's impossible to do, and that's impossible to do," McDaniels said. "If you don't have the right time - if the ball hasn't been thrown downfield 40 yards, if there's not a timeout on the field - you don't try to do that and disrupt the entire flow of your game by allowing (Manning) to create situations where you have to call timeouts or get 5-yard penalties that keep drives going. We're going to play with the guys that are out there and when we feel like we can substitute without issue, then we'll substitute if we need to."

In a lot of ways that answer was to be expected and much of it is coach-speak. Common sense tells us the Broncos will likely try and find ways, especially early in the game, to keep the Colts from getting into a rhythem in the no huddle - using time outs perhaps - especially in the first half.

Whatever the case, the Broncos need to have an answer if they are going to have a shot at the upset on Sunday. Thanks Frank!

Potent Quotables - Wednesday Ramblings from Dove Valley

John Bena — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:24:57 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

about 9 hours ago: FILE - This is a Nov. 1, 2009, file photo showing Denver Broncos offensive tackle Ryan Harris leaving the field after an injury in the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, in Baltimore. Harris is done for the season. The third-year pro was put on injured reserve Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2009, with an injury to his right big toe. (AP Photo/Gail Burton, File)

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HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

Opening statement

"We placed (T) Ryan Harris on injured reserve. We signed (T) Herb Taylor to the roster. Hopefully, everybody will be out there at practice."

On placing Harris on injured reserve

"His toe was too injured for him to be able to play without having a procedure. We're going to take care of that. After that happens, (with) the length of time that he would need to recover from that, it wouldn't make any sense for us to not make this move at this time on our roster."

On Harris' injury

"It was a toe injury."

On if Harris returned to game action too early against Kansas City

"No, he was fine. The previous injury was not the same injury. That has nothing to do with the new injury. It's the same toe, but it's not the same injury to the toe. It's kind of a fluke deal. He was playing well until the time that it happened."

On T Tyler Polumbus' improvement over the past five weeks

"I've seen a guy who's gained confidence because obviously, in this league when you're playing in the games, that experience is more valuable than the experience that you gain in the offseason and all the rest of it. He knows what we're doing. He knows our system. He communicates well with the other players. He's playing beside good players. We think that we have a guy who's getting better each week. He'll have a big challenge ahead of him this week."

On facing Indianapolis' no-huddle offense on Sunday

"We're just going to get lined up and play our call. That's it. We're not going to try to run a bunch of guys in and out of the game. Nobody does against this team. We're not going to try to do it either. You've got to line up and play good football. There's no more simple answer than that. That's what we need to do. That's what we're going to try to do."

On if the Broncos will use sub packages frequently against the Colts on Sunday

"We will not try to do something that is impossible to do, and that's impossible to do when you don't have the right time. If the ball hasn't been thrown down the field 40 yards, if there's not a timeout on the field, you don't try to do that and disrupt the entire flow of your game by allowing them to create situations where you have to call timeouts or you get five-yard penalties that keep the drive going and all the rest of it. We're going to play with the guys who are out there, and when we feel like we can substitute without issue, then we will substitute if we need to. If we don't need to substitute, then we're just going to play."

On Indianapolis Defensive Coordinator Larry Coyer's game plan

"I would say it's mostly the same philosophy, but you can tell that he's added a few different things that they haven't really done a lot of in the past. I'm not saying that that has taken over what they do. It certainly hasn't. The base things that they do, they're fairly simple in terms of the amount of volume of calls that they use, but they play faster than every team in the league. Everybody on this defense is fast. Their front is fast, they play fast, they stunt fast, they blitz fast (and) they cover fast. Everything that they do is about speed. That hasn't changed. He's added a few blitz-zones and some different coverage wrinkles here or there. They're playing as well as anybody in football on defense. They create a lot of turnovers (and) do a great job of stopping people in the red zone and on the goal line. Larry's done a great job with them."

On why opponents can't take advantage of Indianapolis' size on defense by running the football

"There's a quarterback on the other side who usually puts them ahead. I said the other day it's the best complimentary football team in the NFL, and it is. They play to each other. The offense tries to get out front. The defense rushes the passer and creates turnovers to give the ball back to the offense, which scores more points. Then you're behind by 14 or 21 points, and then if you hand the ball off three times in a row, you get booed. First of all, let me say this: they are not a bad run defense. If you could run the ball 40 times against them-that isn't going to be easy because again, the way that they stop the run is not the same way that we would stop the run, necessarily, or some other teams stop the run. They stunt and create disruption by picking people off or making two of your guys block one of their guys so that one of their fast players is free to the football. That's what they do. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat, and they do it a different way than some teams do, but they're really, really good at it and very effective. Everybody knows their job. They're extremely unselfish when they play run defense because there are a lot of people in that front who know, ‘Alright, I know I am not going to make the tackle on this play, but I'm going to go run in there and I'm going to take the guard and the center out, and now, somebody else is going to make the tackle behind me.' They have great trust and faith in their players."

On ranking Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning amongst all-time NFL quarterbacks

"I don't know where he stands in that. I'm not judging him or saying-I know he's one of the greatest of all time. He's unbelievable to prepare for. You can't beat him with a play call. You make the right call against some teams, and sometimes you have a better call than the other quarterback's coordinator made on their sideline, and hooray for you and you won one. With this guy, if he sees something or you show him something too early, it doesn't make any difference what the guy on the sideline called. He's going to make sure that he changes it to something that's going to hurt you. When he makes a decision to do that, usually, it ends up in a big play. There's a difference between him and everybody else because some other teams try to get out of a bad play and into a play that's a decent play. He tries to get out of a bad play and score a touchdown. He's an aggressive quarterback who gets rid of the football before you can get there most of the time. They've only (allowed) 10 sacks this year, and he's a great part of that. Their offensive line does a great job, but he does a great job, too. He attacks you at your very weakest point in every coverage, and that's what makes him so good."

On the Broncos secondary facing Manning

"When you play with a veteran secondary against him, that can help you. Certainly, we have to play well. The bottom line is when (WR) Reggie Wayne is out there, it doesn't make any difference who's on him. They're going to throw it to him. You're not going to put one guy out there on Reggie Wayne and say, ‘Okay, he won't throw it to Reggie today.' He's a great player. The two young kids who they have who are playing a lot, (WR Austin) Collie and (WR Pierre) Garcon, I don't know that I could imagine two young players coming into the league and then adapting to a difficult system and being able to work in pressure situations with a guy like Peyton Manning as well as those two have. It's remarkable what they've been able to do with those two kids. They're only going to get better. (TE Dallas) Clark is incredibly difficult to defend. You can try to take away some things, but ultimately, like I just said, he's going to throw it to the guy who you didn't take away, and you better be on him and you better be on him tight. You better try to get a pass rush on him because if you sit there and give him too much time and let him see what the coverage is, he's going to throw it to the right place."

On how Indianapolis TE Dallas Clark compares to Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez or San Diego TE Antonio Gates

"(He has) great hands. I would say (he is) as good as a route runner as those guys you mentioned. He's one of those guys who has a knack for getting open. He can do things with his body. He has great body control when he runs routes. He can sell things and then do something different off of it. The thing about all of their receivers, including Clark, is they don't need much space. If he's from-me-to-the-microphone (approximately six inches) open, the ball is going to be ‘here,' and he's going to catch it because he's got great hands and he's got a good quarterback throwing him the ball. They've got so many weapons. You can't double-team everybody. We've got good players on defense, and we've got to play good defense."

On his decision to practice inside today

"It's sunny, it's zero degrees and we're playing indoors (at Indianapolis on Sunday)."

On how to beat Indianapolis

"I think there have been a lot of teams that have played them tough, and there have been a lot of close games. They've won seven games (by less than) a touchdown this year, which tells you that they execute in those pressure situations and have executed in those pressure situations better than their opponents have. It's not out of the question for you or for any other team to be close and to be in the game in the second half or to be ahead in the second half. You can't play 56 minutes. If you've played 56 good minutes, you might have a smile on your face and you're going to lose. If you play 58 good minutes, it might be the same situation. You've got to play 60 minutes or longer if it takes longer, and you've got to continue to come back to the sideline and say, ‘Alright, what are we going to do the next series?' and go out there and play well again. You've got to battle them, and you've got to play really, really good football down in the red zone, on third down and in two-minute (situations) because that's where a lot of their games have been decided in those crucial situations at the end of the game. They've made more plays than their opponents have, and that's why they've won 12 in a row and 21 straight in the regular season. If you can take care of the football and you can play your best football down there when it matters most, you've got a chance to be in the game and then to win the game."

QB KYLE ORTON

On T Ryan Harris being placed on injured reserve

"He's certainly a good player for us and brings toughness and a little nastiness to the line, so it's disappointing to hear about it. (T) Tyler (Polumbus) will step in. He's played before and he's played well for us, and he's going to need to the rest of the year."

On if the offense changed during the four weeks Harris missed

"No, I don't let it affect me. The guys have a job to do, and they're expected to do it. Tyler is expected to do it just like Ryan does. He's done a good job. I don't feel the pressure anymore. We have tough task this week, obviously. Everybody knows that, but we expect to go out and play well."

On if play calls are different when Polumbus is in the game

"No, I don't think so. We've kind of gotten away from doing some empty stuff, but I don't think that has to do with Tyler. I think that's just where we're at as an offense. I don't think we've done a whole lot to specifically help Tyler."

On being aware of each play's timing when facing Indianapolis' pass rush

"All 11 guys on offense have to be aware of it. Receivers have to have urgency getting open, I have to have urgency getting the ball out and the offensive line has to do a great job of running them by and giving me a chance to step up. Not just myself, but all 11 guys have to be aware of that."

On having to play well against Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning

"When you're playing a 12-0 team, I think you've certainly got to bring it, but Peyton is one of the best there is and one of the best who ever played. I'm not going to sit here and try to outdo him, for sure. We'll have to play smart football, and we'll have to play turnover free and mistake free on offense and try to hold the ball as long as we can and let him sit on the sideline and have fun over there."

On the term "franchise quarterback"

"That's all on the franchise. That's all on the organization. That's probably the only way you can decide that is if the organization thinks you're one, then you're one. I guess we'll just wait and see."

On if Manning is a franchise quarterback

"Peyton is a Hall of Fame quarterback. There are big differences between franchise quarterbacks and Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Peyton is a Hall of Famer, and there are not many of those around."

On Manning's star power in Indiana

"Well, he's the Colts. When you think of the Colts, not only in Indiana but across the country, you think of Peyton Manning. He's a premier player, and he has been for a long time. I know how important he is back in the Midwest."

On playing on the road late in the season

"There's a disadvantage going on the road, I would probably say, this time of year. We're playing good teams, and it's tough to win on the road. You go into a dome, and it's going to be extremely loud. They're a dome team. There's no question about it. They're built for the dome. They're fast. This will be the fastest defense that we see all year. We're going to have to handle the operation, have to handle the crowd noise and with all that, have to be able to handle the edge and everything with their (defensive) ends. It'll be a tough task."

On the challenges Indianapolis' defense presents

"They just tell their ends to go the quarterback, and everybody else rallies to the run. The ends really have no responsibilities other than to come back with the quarterback. They get there a bunch and cause a lot of havoc. Everybody else on that defense is extremely fast and they rally to the ball. There are usually five or six of guys there to make the tackle and try to strip the ball out."

On Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney

"He's great. He's a great player, no question. He's done it for a long time. (DE Robert) Mathis is a great player. (LB Gary) Brackett is a great player. They've got young players-this is a younger team than when I played them last year, but their two secondary players are young and fast and they're not getting beat on the outside. We've got a lot of guys who we've got to account for this week."

On running the ball against Indianapolis' aggressive defensive ends

"A lot of draws are run against this team. A lot of screen passes, obviously, are run against this team, but like I said, they're so fast by the other nine guys who everybody rallies to the ball and they're there to make the plays. They play great team defense."

On scoring points against Indianapolis' defense

"We just know that we've got to go on 10-, 12-play drives. First of all, I think they've given up just a handful of plays over 15 yards, and that's in the run game and the pass game. To sit here and think we are going to have three-, four-play drives and hit big plays on them is kind of well wishing. We'll have to execute and take five yards and take five, six yards and take the backs and just know going into the game to be successful, we're going to have to drive the ball down, and when we get into the red zone, certainly, we're going to have to come away with touchdowns."

On the Broncos' offensive weapons helping him develop as a quarterback

"Everybody on our team has. This is the most talented offense I've played with, and obviously, it starts with the guys up front just giving me a bunch of time to throw and make my reads. I just feel that I'm a smart enough player that if I do have the time to sit back and read the defense, I am going to go the right place with the ball most of the time."

On if he has ever had to prepare for a defense that is playing as well as Indianapolis'

"Yeah, we've had to do it. Every year you've got to play defenses like this that are playing great. We feel like we're well matched with this team, and if we go out and do our job, we'll be just fine and win the game."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On facing Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning

"A couple of times we've faced him, and they've won, I think, both of the times we played them. (It is a) very challenging preparation, as usual, for a good quarterback. This time is definitely no different with him having the weapons that he is using on the field right now."

On attacking Manning

"You can't let him know what (coverage) you are in. You have to do the best that you can to disguise what you are trying to do. From there, you've got to play football. Once the ball is snapped, you play football, and that is the end result in all the checks and all the things both sides of the ball that we will be doing defensively and offensively. When the ball is snapped, you have to make plays on the ball (and) you have to make tackles. We are in for a 60-minute game."

On if Colts' opponents try to disguise coverages

"You just do what you do. We have a veteran group in the secondary, obviously. We are going to do our best to make sure that we don't make the game easier for him than it already is for him. It is going to be, like I said, a 60-minute game of doing that, not getting tired of disguising."

On playing the undefeated New England Patriots in 2007 with the Philadelphia Eagles

"It seems like a decade ago as far as me playing with the Eagles and going against the Patriots in that situation. I just remember it was a hyped game. We were very jacked up because of the underdogs we were. I remember that, but that is a completely different ball team, completely different situation as far as I'm concerned, as far as where we are with this team and what we are looking to do. I don't think we are focused on that, to tell you the truth."

On if he will practice this week

"That's the plan. That's the plan: to practice and go out and be on the field with my teammates, doing what I can to help this football team this weekend. That is the intention."

On his physical condition

"I feel great. This is football. This is a contact sport. Things happen at different times. (You) may go through a stretch where you feel absolutely great, and then other times, especially late in the season, you are going to have to play through some things. This is nothing new for me."

On Indianapolis' winning streak

"What good is it going to do to be focused on somebody else's winning streak or what they are not doing? That is not what we are about. We are about this one game and what we have to do to see if we can pull out a victory (in) this one game. All those other victories and losses, whatever, even our losses, none of that stuff, means anything as far as this game is concerned. This is the most important game of our season right now at this point. That is what we need to focus on."

On where Manning ranks amongst all-time NFL quarterbacks

"I'm not going to tell you anything different. He is one of the best that I've ever faced as (far as) what he does with the football, his accuracy, his diagnosing defenses (and) him being able to put the ball where it needs to be to his receivers when he does check. I'm not telling you guys anything that you don't already know. He is one of the best to ever play this game."

On DL Vonnie Holliday's contribution to the defense

"Tremendous. Tremendous. He is a vocal guy. He is a guy that understands how to play his position in this defense. I think that has benefited some of the other guys who haven't played in this defense, allowing them to understand how to play their gaps and how to control different gaps and allow the linebackers to run free sometimes. He has been a tremendous, tremendous benefit for this team, and I'm so happy we were able to talk him into coming here."

On RB Correll Buckhalter's performance

"This is what I expect from Buck when he is healthy because this is what he did in Philadelphia when they gave him the chance. They didn't give him a lot of chances, having (Philadelphia RB Brian) Westbrook in front of him, but when he got in the game, he was one of the guys that gave us big plays. I remember last year in our stretch run, he was one of the guys that kept giving us play after play, even receiving the ball out of the backfield, giving us 50- and 60-plus yards after the catch. This is what I expect from him, and I don't think this is anything he doesn't expect from himself. I think he expects the same thing from himself. I'm just happy, and the Lord is blessing him to stay healthy."

On Buckhalter's comment that he may currently be faster than ever

"He is a blessed man of God. He is, and he knows that. He is a humble guy and throughout all that adversity, I was in his ear and I was always praying for him. Coming out the other end of that perseverance, he is a stronger person from it. You see the speed on the football field. Like I said, I'm just excited to be able to enjoy this with him the way it is happening right now."

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

23 days ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

Broncos place T Ryan Harris on IR; Sign T Herb Taylor

John Bena — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:51:51 -0000

The Denver Broncos on Wednesday signed free-agent tackle Herb Taylor, it was announced. As per club policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Denver also on Wednesday announced it placed tackle Ryan Harris on injured reserve with a toe injury.

Taylor (6-foot-3, 295 pounds) is a third-year tackle who entered the NFL with Kansas City as a sixth-round selection (196th overall) in the 2007 NFL Draft. He was waived by the Chiefs at the end of 2009 training camp. Taylor appeared in 18 games (1 start), including all 16 contests in 2008, with the Chiefs. As a rookie in 2007, Taylor played in two games, was declared inactive for 11 games and dressed but did not play in three outings for Kansas City.

At Texas Christian University, Taylor helped the Horned Frogs to an 11-2 record and a win in the Poinsettia Bowl as a senior. He earned first-team All-Mountain West recognition as a senior left tackle after garnering the same recognition as a junior right tackle. Taylor set a TCU record by making 48 consecutive starts. He was named to the Conference USA All-Freshman team and received honorable mention freshman All-America accolades.

Taylor was a two-time all-district performer at Hightower High School in Houston, where he was also selected for the All-Greater Houston Team. Herbert Reginald Taylor II, who majored in advertising and public relations with a minor in social work at TCU, was born Sept. 22, 1984.

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

Jets Flight Connections 120909

dvdvil — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:52:00 -0000

Rich Cimini wants QB Mark Sanchez to sit out on Sunday. He also turns an innocent compliment by FB Tony Richardson on the running game into a negative assessment of WR Braylon Edwards.

Peter King is impressed with the Jets rushing offense, and especially with OL Coach Bill Callahan.

RB Thomas Jones is performing very well and is up for another FedEx Ground Player award. He won this before in Week 6. Vote for him here. Vote early and often.

And I also want to remind everyone that so far, only G Alan Faneca is leading the Jets in the ProBowl voting. Vote for Revis, C Nick Mangold, LB David Harris and other deserving Jets here.

Jets practice squad FB Jason Davis also likes the run game and prepares like a starter. Another young guy on the squad is LB Jamaal Westerman, and I found this article on him.

Dave Hutchinson takes a quick look at the next game and reiterates that CB Darrelle Revis could be considered the NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

Mark Cannizzaro lauds HC Rex Ryan's in-game defensive adjustments. Larry to the Izzo compares Rex to Bill Belichick.

But Newsday's Roderick Boone says don't believe the Jets defense hype. (You can't actually read the full article without paying. Seriously, what the hell, Newsday?)

Maybe he's got a point, because despite the stats, the Jets are just a .500 team.

Hopefully, that will change on Sunday. Obviously, we are expected to beat Tampa Bay.

More connections after the jump.

Nick Mangold, Giants TE Kevin Boss and CB Corey Webster, the teams's owners and some fans stepped onto the field yesterday. Mangold talks about the stadium in this video.

The New Meadowlands Stadium will have removable endzone and midfield turfs. We will actually be seeing the Jets logo at the 50 yard line next year.

Find out more about the field turf here.

Some NFL kickers will not miss the current stadium and the swirling winds within it.

Sports Illustrated rates the Dewayne Robertson draft pick as the worst trade of the decade. Meanwhile, the Patriots are pretty much the best everything. Oh, and they also talk about this thing called SpyGate.

The branches of the Belichick coaching tree are not getting along.

In the loss to the Dolphins, are the Patriots players to blame and not the coaches?

Examiner.com blames last year's Jets meltdown not on QB Brett Favre, but on Jones and Coles. Vikings TE Vishanthe Shiancoe is confident the same thing won't happen in Minnesota.

WR Laveranues Coles is still adjusting to the Bengals system. His teammate Chad Ochocinco is having fun in Cincinnati - and paying for it.

Are we rooting for the Browns on Thursday? Steelers WR Hines Ward might miss that game.

Lastly, Kerry Locklin, we hardly knew ya.

Horse Tracks - 12/9/09 - Broncos Lose Harris For the Season

John Bena — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:04:49 -0000

Yes, the loss of Ryan Harris is unfortunate, but certainly not unexpected. Perhaps the most important asset an offensive tackle has are his feet and footwork. That is what makes Ryan Clady so effective. An injury, such as a dislocated big-toe, can be a huge problem. Credit to Harris for trying to gut it out. Now the burden falls to Tyler Polumbus. He's played the majority of games the past 5 weeks and has improved as time has gone on. The time is now for Polumbus, who grew up in Denver and went to Colorado, to lay-claim to a future spot on the Broncos offensive line.

DB.com - Warriors of a Winter Food Drive(Zach Eisendrath and Chris Gentisalvo)
That tradition received a reward on Tuesday morning when Darrell Reid, Wesley Woodyard, Broncos cheerleaders Romi Bean and Jessica Flores and Broncos mascot Miles attended the students' lunch hour to congratulate them for their efforts.

DB.com - Holidays Come Early(Gary Caldwell)
There were plenty of smiles and full carts as the holidays came a little early Monday night.

DP - Broncos OT Harris out for season
The Broncos will play the rest of the season, including any playoff games, without starting right tackle Ryan Harris.

DP - How about Broncos' McDaniels for NFL coach of the year?(Mark Kiszla)
For everybody who cursed this young football coach for trading Jay Cutler, condemned his draft picks as madness or demanded he be fired before his first game on the Broncos' sideline, it's time to consider calling Josh McDaniels a new name:

DP - Broncos use Champ to be champ of special teams(Lindsay Jones)
No, that wasn't an error on the play-by-play report from the Broncos' 44-13 victory at Kansas City on Sunday. That really was Champ Bailey — yes, the likely future Hall of Fame cornerback — running downfield on a kickoff and making a solo tackle on a third-quarter kick return.

DP - Broncos' Prater has a big leg up on 2008(Jeff Legwold)
It's a simple, proven formula. To play the kind of field-position football the Broncos want to play down the stretch, it will start with their kicker, Matt Prater.

DP - Moreno looking good for the long run(Jim Armstrong)
This just in. Knowshon Moreno, after a preseason that included the obligatory contract holdout and a knee injury, is on pace to run for 1,000 yards.

DP - Harris out: What it means for the line(Lindsay Jones)
There is no doubt the Broncos will miss right tackle Ryan Harris, who is not going to be able to play the rest of the season because of the serious injury to his big right toe.

State of the AFC West Week 13

Sam (sdsuaztec4) — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 07:16:37 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

Dude, smell my fingers! (AP Photo/Amy Sancetta)

Browse more photos »

Good news, everyone! The Chargers can become the first member of the AFC West to clinch a spot in the playoffs if they beat the Cowboys, like 8 other teams lose, Tim Tebow dies for our sins, and Brett Favre retires for the rest of the regular season and makes a comeback in the playoffs...for the Broncos.

Anyway, after being left for dead (by me and the MSM at least) after their 4 game losing streak, the Broncos have come back with two dominating victories over the G-Men and the Chiefs to stay within 1 game of the Chargers. The Chargers have a tough 3 game stretch (@DAL, vs. CIN, @TEN) but hold the tiebreaker over Denver so the Chargers still hold the best position to win their 4th straight AFC West title.

The Raiders now have two big wins on their schedule after the Gradkowski led them on multiple 4th quarter TD drives to win over the Stillers in Pittsburgh, something the Chargers couldn't do. While they still aren't very good, the are now clearly much better than the sucky sucky Chiefs. (HA! Take that Chiefs fans! I called your team sucky!) Let's see if the Raiders can beat the Broncos and prove they can win a division game (other than over the Chiefs, HA!) and maybe we'll think about considering whether the Raiders can be relevant again anytime soon.

Click the jump link thingy. Please.

AFC West Standings

	W	L	PF	PA
San Diego	9	3	342	242
Denver	8	4	240	202
Oakland	4	8	142	282
Kansas City	3	9	196	326

(updated 12.8.2009 at 1:21 AM PST)

Kansas City Chiefs: The whispers are Matt Cassel better get his act together soon are he might go the way of the Dodo. I'm not sure what they expected from a career backup who came from the devious Patriots. Although Josh McDaniels sure wanted him and he obviously knows about him. On the other hand, maybe he was just feigning interest to get the Chiefs in on him to guarantee they would suck. Josh is pretty douchy like that, coming from the counsel of Bill Belichick. All of that, and now the Chiefs might be facing the first blackout in like a really really long time. Not to mention they've only won one homegame out of the last 12. Anyway, enough bashing on the Chiefs. If you don't have anything nice to say, you shouldn't say anything at all, right? That Jamaal Charles guy is really good.

Oakland Raiders: Even if their best defensive player is out and their QB is coming back from his 23rd concussion, anytime you beat the Steelers on their home field it is impressive. Anytime your QB leads you on two 4th quarter TD drives that's impressive. Gradkowski has now led two winning drives in the final two minutes in three weeks. Vote in the poll for the AFC West Question of the WEEK! Was Jamarcus Russell such a black hole of Suck that he made the entire team awful? Or are the Raiders just catching some breaks and playing teams at the right time? 400 yards of offense by the Raiders on Hienz field. Think about that. This is way too much Raider love though; probably because I hate the Steelers more than the Raiders because the Raiders suck and they have two former Aztecs starters on their team. (C. Shillens and K. Morrison).

Denver Broncos: So, after getting shellacked in Denver by the Bolts, the Broncos b*tch slapped New York and then pimp slapped KC. I still can't understand this team. Streaky is an understatement. The Broncos appear headed for a wildcard spot in the #5 seed, which means they would play the #4 seed in an away game in the wildcard round of the playoffs. It looks like right now that would be the Patriots. Can this Broncos team beat the Patriots in Foxbourgh in January? If I had to bet, I'd say no, but then again I thought they'd lose to both the Giants and the Chiefs. The good news for the Broncos is that they really got the running game together against the Chiefs which will do good things for them in the playoffs; although that might say more about the Chiefs defense than anything else. The Broncos have a tough 3 game stretch coming up (@ IND, vs. OAK, @PHI) we'll know a lot more after we see how they do in those games.

San Diego Chargers: Here's what we know: The Chargers have the best passing offense in the NFL according to ~~G0d~~ Football Outsiders, a sometimes useful running game, an inconsistent defense, and really injury prone starters. A lot of the Chargers future success will depend on the health of the team. Sound familiar? Like every post season from the last 4 years familiar? I'm REALLY starting to wonder about the training staff. The health of Eric Weddle, Shawne Merriman, and Luis Castillo are going to be very important down the like; not only because of the players themselves, but when Shawne is in, Shaun doesn't get doubled and is able to get more pressure...our match-ups against offensive players are much better. Eric Weddle might be the most important player on our defense. We get killed on defense without him. (See Browns, Cleveland). If the Chargers beat the Bengals, they have a very good chance of locking up the #2 seed and a first round bye...which is very important given our health issues. We definitely could use that time to heal up.

Poll

Is Bruce Gradkowski the long term answer in Oakland?

Gary Kubiak: What To Do?

Jake — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:04:57 -0000

More photos » by Stephen Morton - AP

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The 2009 NFL season was supposed to be the breakout year for the Houston Texans. After two 8-8 seasons, they seemed primed for the franchise's first playoff season. Now, sitting at 5-7, the playoffs are not a possibility and the focus has shifted to embattled head coach Gary Kubiak.

Gary Kubiak is the second head coach of the Houston Texans. He was hired in 2006 to replace Dom Capers, who lead the expansion franchise to an 18-46 record over the first four years, including a 2-14 record in 2005. The move to Kubiak made sense. Kubiak is a Houston native who played college ball in the state of Texas before a 19 year playing and coaching career with the Denver Broncos, one of the best offensive teams of the last quarter century.

Something has gone awry. The hometown man has not been bad, but he certainly hasn't been good either. He currently has 27-33 record as a head coach and is on pace for a third consecutive .500 season (or maybe even worse). Anyone who has watched this team knows that it is capable of much more; six of the seven losses were winnable in the closing quarter of the game, yet the Texans came up short. Many speculate that this lack of "closing games" may cost Kubiak his job.

Many Texans fans feel this Kubiak's ouster is the right course of action. The NFL is an instant gratification league, and fans demand results. When the average Houston fan looks around at the turnaround success that Atlanta, Baltimore and Miami all experienced on the shoulders of first year head coaches last year, it's hard to feel loyalty to a coach that hasn't managed a playoff season in four years when those three coaches managed to do it in one.

What has killed Kubiak are the other AFC South teams. While the Kubiak-led Texans are a decent 20-16 against the rest of the league, they are an abysmal 7-17 against the Colts, Jaguars and Titans. For a team to be successful, they must at least break even in their division, something that the Texans have done only once since Kubiak's hire. Ironically, that .500 year was in 2006, which was the only season Kubiak managed less than 8-8 for the season.

As I implied earlier, Kubiak was hired for his offensive expertise. As a former quarterback, coach of that same position, and offensive coordinator, he certainly had the right pedigree. In 2006 he attempted to make that offense work with former first round pick David Carr. After finishing 28th in total offense with Carr, Kubiak and his general manager Rick Smith, who Kubiak brought with him from Denver, traded two second round picks in consecutive years for Atlanta backup quarterback Matt Schaub. Since that trade, the Texans finished 14th in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and are currently ranked 8th in total offense.

So on the offensive front the Texans have improved drastically under Kubiak. Unfortunately, the defense has not fared as well. Former defensive coordinator Richard Smith led an anemic defense that could not keep up with the offensive improvement. Many Texans fans were encouraged by the firing of Richard Smith, and the subsequent hiring of Frank Bush, another Kubiak colleague from his days in Denver. Bush, along with first-round pick and defensive rookie of the year candidate Brian Cushing, have given new life into the defense, which now ranks 16th.

Rankings are all well and good, but the one statistic that matters in the NFL is wins. You would assume a team that ranks 8th in total offense and 16th in total defense is a playoff caliber team; the Texans, however, find themselves effectively eliminated from that race. This leads us back to not closing games when they matter, something usually attributed to coaching. As stated, this attribute may cost him his job at the end of the season.

I personally think that firing Kubiak after the 2009 campaign would be a huge mistake. He is definitely not perfect, and this season has been the football equivalent of a root canal for me and all Texans fans. Consider, though, what replacing Kubiak would entail. It has been rumored that owner Bob McNair would be interested in a defensive-minded head coach. So what would that mean?

Kubiak runs a unique offense that relies on a smaller, zone blocking offensive line. Bill Cowher has been named as a potential suitor. Cowher was known as a power running coach, something that would require new offensive lineman and new running backs. The only other "established" head coach is Mike Shanahan, but you might as well forget about that possibility because even though his son is currently offensive coordinator, it is unlikely that he would step in to replace his friend and former protégé. The other option is a first-time head coach who is currently a defensive coordinator. While that move may or may not work to improve the defense, it is still unknown what would happen to the offense because without Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan would likely leave to coach with his father, who will undoubtedly be given a job somewhere.

There's more though. What happens to GM Rick Smith if Kubiak is canned? While Kubiak's performance can be questioned, it is obvious that Smith has done a phenomenal job to undo the damage done by former GM Charlie Casserly. There are only a handful of players left from the Casserly regime, which is not a coincidence. This roster was so devoid of talent when Smith took over that a complete re-tooling was necessary. Smith has traded for a QB who is arguably one of the top ten in the league, drafted key players including three Pro Bowlers, and brought in some (yes, just some) good free agent acquisitions, such as Antonio Smith.

I feel that it is a fact that Kubiak and Smith have improved this team significantly. It is possible that Kubiak is incapable of being a great coach because of his handling of game situations necessary for winning games late. We don't know that though; at this point it is just speculation. I think it's worth the risk of another gut-wrenching, underperforming season to validate that suspicion. Keep in mind that Kubiak still has a chance to lead the Texans to their first winning season ever this season, albeit a slim one. Even if that doesn't happen, and he produces yet another mediocre season, I say give him one more chance. We haven't seen enough failure yet to justify another complete do-over.

Oh, by the way, the resurgent Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens that had sharp turnarounds last year are all currently 6-6 and out of the playoffs as of right now. I would forgo instant gratification in exchange for sustained success. What about you?

Previewing the Enemy: Washington Redskins

Rated-R Superstar — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:39:28 -0000

It's a Super Bowl XVIII rematch! [via prod.static.raiders.clubs.nfl.com]

Alright, it's not quite a rematch from Super Bowl XVIII when the Raiders smashed the Redskins en route to their third Super Bowl title in franchise history. Nonetheless, this Sunday, the Oakland Raiders (4-8) will look to put together a winning streak as the Washington Redskins (3-9) will be coming to town. Don't let that 3-9 record fool you. This Washington team is better than their record and it clearly showed after taking Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans to the wire. They don't lay down and will play hard. With the team 2-1 with Bruce Gradkowski starting, the Raiders look to come away with another hard-earned victory as they did last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers as 15-point underdogs.

Let's take a look at their schedule and see how they've fared so far.

Week 1: @ New York Giants -- L, 17-23
Week 2: St. Louis Rams -- W, 9-7
Week 3: @ Detroit Lions -- L, 14-19
Week 4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- W, 16-13
Week 5: @ Carolina Panthers -- L, 17-20
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs -- L, 6-14
Week 7: Philadelphia Eagles -- L, 17-27
Week 8: Bye Week
Week 9: @ Atlanta Falcons -- L, 17-31
Week 10: Denver Broncos -- W, 27-17
Week 11: @ Dallas Cowboys -- L, 6-7
Week 12: @ Philadelphia Eagles -- L, 24-27
Week 13: New Orleans Saints -- L, 30-33 (F/OT)

Well, this team is certainly interesting. Sitting at 3-9, this team could easily be 6-6 or even better. We will have to bring our "A" game, of course, if we want to secure a victory on our home field this Sunday.

Let's check out the Redskin offense first.

Pass Offense Rank: 220.2 yards/game; 18th in NFL
Rush Offense Rank: 101.0 yards/game; 22nd in NFL
Total Offense Rank: 321.2 yards/game; 21st in NFL
Scoring Offense Rank: 16.7 points/game; 26th in NFL

With stars Chris Cooley and Clinton Portis out, others must step up for the Redskins. [via cache.daylife.com]

If you recall, the Redskins offense was the subject of some controversy or what not concerning head coach Jim Zorn. Well, he gave up his play-calling duties to assistant Sherman Lewis. Since then, the offense has performed better. Who is the leader of this Redskins offense? I really don't know to be honest with you. Let's look a little bit into their personnel.

Jason Campbell, QB: Many people questioned Campbell's status as the quarterback this season. He was even benched in favor of veteran Todd Collins earlier. To me, Campbell is actually a pretty solid quarterback. He isn't going to set the world on fire or anything, but he can still hurt you. Campbell is completing 66 percent of his passes this season even if they are "dinks and dunks" most of the time. With 15 turnovers and 15 touchdown passes, Campbell's ratio isn't all that great. He has been sacked three or more times in five games. Obviously, getting some pressure on him would be nice.

Rock Cartwright, HB: Rock is solid, just like a rock. (Ha, get it?) If you want him to be the running back, he can. If you want him to be the fullback, he can. He'll even run back kicks and run down there on punt returns. He is a threat out of the backfield to catch passes. A somewhat physical runner, Cartwright doesn't really stand out in terms of either his speed or his strength. Cartwright has stepped up for the injured Clinton Portis (concussion), who just put on injured reserve. Also on injured reserve is Portis' backup Ladell Betts, so the Redskins are thin at running back.

Quinton Ganther, HB: Ganther, just in his second year out of Utah, is someone I just don't know too much about. Essentially moving up from fourth on the depth chart to splitting time with Cartwright, Ganther was mildly successful against the Saints last Sunday with 46 yards on just 8 carries. The week before that against the Eagles, Ganther had 32 yards on just 5 carries. We may see more of him against the Raiders with him averaging 5.8 yards per carry over the past few weeks.

Santana Moss, WR: The pint-sized and speedy Moss is Washington's leader in receptions (49), yards (642) and touchdowns (3). He is what you would call the team's go-to-guy, but really the Redskins have a lot of guys they go to. Still, Moss provides that veteran presence and can't be overlooked. Maybe this would be one of the few times where I wouldn't mind Nnamdi Asomugha moving around from receiver to receiver, which he will at least a little bit.

Wide receiver Devin Thomas had two touchdowns last week against the Saints. [via a.espncdn.com]

Devin Thomas, WR: The second-year receiver out of Michigan State, Thomas is a young man seemingly improving with each game of late. He has even been prominent in the kick return game of the past two weeks. Still, he has shined brightly in the passing game over the course of those two same weeks. After a decent game against the Eagles, he broke out for 7 receptions, 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week against the Saints.

Antwaan Randle El, WR: The ex-Steeler is still in Washington. Randle El, who is very durable having missed only one game in his eight-year career, he is a dependable target for Campbell despite only averaging 3.3 receptions per game. I believe this is more in part to the number of targets the Redskins like to use. The team isn't confined to both Moss and Rande El as you will see here in a minute in this preview.

Fred Davis, TE: After Campbell's favorite target Chris Cooley went down for the year, someone had to step up. Unknown at the time to Washington, it'd be his replacement. Fred Davis. Since October 26, Davis is averaging 7.5 catches and 45.7 yards with finding the end zone three times, including two times in his last three games. As most tight ends are, he is a threat in the red zone and Campbell has no problem looking his way.

Let's shift gears to the Redskin defense now.

Pass Defense Rank: 190.2 yards/game; 5th in NFL
Rush Defense Rank: 121.8 yards/game; 24th in NFL
Total Defense Rank: 312.0 yards/game; 9th in NFL
Scoring Defense Rank: 19.8 points/game; 14th in NFL

Linebacker London Fletcher leads Washington's better-than-you-think defense. [via cdn.bleacherreport.com]

Defensive coordinator Greg Blache and his Washington Redskins actually have a pretty solid group defensively operating out of the 4-3. You may not think so because of their 3-9 record, but I'm sure people don't think highly of our defense since we're just 4-8. Anyway, the Redskins are particularly strong against the pass. Safety Reed Doughty has quietly had a good year and young LaRon Landry is solid at his spot as well. A pretty solid group of cornerbacks are headed by veteran Fred Smoot, who is in his ninth year out of Mississippi State. The leader of the defense is the man in the middle, London Fletcher, who leads the team with 109 tackles. Brian Orakpo, the 13th overall pick in the 2009 draft, plays on the outside along with veteran Rocky McIntosh. Defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth has been in and out of the lineup with injuries this season. He signed a monster contract in the offseason, but the Redskins' defense is only ranked 24th against the rush. His presence is desperately needed for Washington. Haynesworth is listed as questionable as of right now. At right defensive end, Andre Carter has nine sacks and deserves some Pro Bowl recognition for his great play. Again, this is a very solid defense and will do everything it can to keep their offense in this game late on the road.

Conclusion: The thing that sticks out defensively about the Redskins is their 24th-ranked rush defense. With Haynesworth questionable, he probably won't be playing on every down. Justin Fargas, Michael Bush and Darren McFadden should have success as long as head coach Tom Cable keeps giving them the rock. I believe of the first 28 plays against the Steelers, 18 of them were rushes. That is a similar ratio that I hope to see this week considering how strong Washington's pass defense is. Speaking of the pass, the breakout of Louis Murphy was something else, especially with Darrius Heyward-Bey out. It's nice to see someone step up at the receiver spot. Chaz Schilens even found the end zone for the first time in 2009 and Todd Watkins caught a key pass in the final drive. Johnnie Lee Higgins came through for us as well. Wide receivers against Pittsburgh caught 12 balls for 248 yards, both of which I'm sure were season-highs for our club. We're definitely going to need that against the Redskins' formidable pass defense against the previously mentioned Smoot and also Carlos Rogers and ex-Raider DeAngelo Hall. This may be a good test for Bruce Gradkowski as well, even though he did perform well against two really good defenses already in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. I think we're ready for this.

Feel free to leave your predictions or even your own thoughts and ideas about the Pittsburgh Steelers and how we can earn a win our fourth win of the season on Sunday.

*-All stats are through Tuesday, December 8, 2009.

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Previewing the Enemy: Washington Redskins

Do you feel more confident in a win, less confident in a win or about the same in a win after reading this preview?