SB Nation - Detroit Lions

Mike McCarthy's Monday Press Conference

Brandon — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 13:00:14 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

The players don't report back until Tuesday morning, so not much news about the Green Bay Packers on Monday. It's nice that the team has an 11 day break between the Lions and Ravens games, following a tough 3 game stretch that began against the Cowboys (11/15) and ending on Thanksgiving (11/26).

Some players, like LB Nick Barnett, used the time off to spend Sunday in Middleton, WI. (Really?) While RB Ryan Grant retweeted Ravens RB Ray Rice.

Meanwhile, Mike McCarthy had a press conference. The following is some excerpts from it:

(Do you anticipate anybody else missing practice time this week?)

I think Chad [Clifton] is really my only concern. I think Jordy Nelson is going to be OK. Allen Barbre, Ahman Green and Brandon Underwood all worked out, so I think they definitely have a chance. These decisions will be made tomorrow, but those are the five guys that have a chance to possibly miss practice.

Clifton, Nelson, and Underwood were the only players hurt on Thanksgiving that did not return to the game. Barbre and Green have missed the past 2 games. No surprises on the injury front.

Keep reading after the jump.

(Did you watch the game [Steelers at Ravens] last night with two teams you play in the next few weeks?)
I watched it last night. I watched it into the fourth quarter, and then I was actually watching Pittsburgh's offense versus Baltimore's defense before I came in here today.

(Did anything stand out to you watching them?)
It's always interesting to watch teams in the same division. It's something that you have to put a lot of credence in as far as game-planning, because both those teams know each other very well. They played each other three times last year, and this was obviously a big game in their division last night. There's definitely a lot you can take away from the game.

Good point.

(Has Jones showed enough to stay in that role?)
Yes. I thought Brad did a nice job. I thought he played well. But I also liked the fact that Brady and Jeremy were able to get 10-15 reps in there also. I really like the mix we had there at the outside linebacker position, because obviously that's a big void with Aaron Kampman out.

The 3 player rotation, led by rookie LB Brad Jones, is still in effect to replace Kampman.

(The special teams coverage units rank near the bottom. Why so many struggles and can that get turned around?)
The coverage units are something that have played at a very high level, and it's the one or two that break out a game, and that obviously shows up in the statistics. If you look at the last three games, and that's kind of where it gives your team a truer sense of where you are, I thought the Dallas game we played extremely well. I thought San Francisco we played very well, except for the one that came out. Then we did some things in the Detroit game that you cannot do. We'll correct that, but we have the people here to do it. I'm very confident in our scheme and how we approach it, and our special teams will be a big factor going down the stretch here.

It's not exactly a grilling, but it's the most he's said about coverage in a while. The game against the Cowboys was the best special teams game of the season, but that was a low bar to clear. "Very well" against the 49ers? The 49ers haven't gotten anything from their return game this season, but WR Josh Morgan had a 76 yard return against them in the 4th quarter, which was a big part of their comeback. The special teams was a festival of penalties in the 1st quarter against the Lions. Playing at a "very high level" except for the 1 or 2 per game that kill you? McCarthy may be confident in their scheme, but I won't say anything good about their kick coverage until they play well in consecutive games.

(These next four games you could call the winter part of the schedule. Is there anything that tells you how effective you might be in the conditions?)
Well, running the football and stopping the run, practicing outside definitely helps. This is Green Bay Packer football. It's playing in December. We feel we're talented on the perimeter but it starts up front. This is the time of the year where people have to run the football and stop the run and be productive with all of the aspects of the game that come off of stopping the run and running the football, so that will be our focus.

He might slip after a poor game against the awful Lions run defense, but RB Ryan Grant had moved up to No. 4 overall according to Football Outsiders, behind only RB Steven Jackson, RB Chris Johnson, and RB DeAngelo Williams. With the exception of week 2, when RB Cedric Benson had a very good game against them, the run defense has fantastic. The running game, on both side of the ball, should be a big advantage for them down the stretch.

Where are they now? A detailed look at the released Veterans from 2008

Niko Houllis — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 10:00:17 -0000

Jovan Haye appears to be the best player we let go from 2008; his half sack and 22 tackles, are they missed?

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Smoke.

Mirrors.

Some say that is how Jon Gruden won 9 games with the 2008 Bucs team, that was a suscpicious 9-3 going into the last quarter of the season. The Bucs fell behind a 2-14 KC team 24-3, and fell behind an 0-16 team 17-0 before coming back. They beat a 6-10 Green Bay team at home, and a 4-12 Seattle team at home too.

It would seem the last 4 games are the ones that truely defined us as a team in 2008. Some say Raheem Morris and Mark Dominik took a playoff team and destroyed it. Lets take a look at that assessment, and look at the work the two guys did to Jon Gruden's final hurrah in Tampa.

Quarterback Jeff Garcia - OUT OF FOOTBALL

QB Brian Griese- OUT OF FOOTBALL

Linebacker Derrick Brooks- OUT OF FOOTBALL

See more player status reports after the jump...

DL Kevin Carter- OUT OF FOOTBALL

WR Ike Hilliard- OUT OF FOOTBALL

RB Warrick Dunn- OUT OF FOOTBALL

K Matt Bryant- OUT of NFL, Kicking for UFL

WR Joey Galloway- Signed with New England, cut- OUT OF FOOTBALL

LB Cato June- Signed by Houston; 2nd string, IR

TE Alex Smith- Traded to New England- Cut: Back up with Philadelphia; 2 catches 22 yards

Jovan Haye- Starting in Tennessee- 22 tackles and half sack.

Philip Buchanon- nickle corner, Detroit Lions; 32 tackles, 0 ints

Gaines Adams- Chicago via trade- 2 tackles, 1 Pass breakup, 0 sacks

Report: Bengals have over 6,000 available tickets for home game against the Detroit Lions

Kirkendall — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:04:27 -0000

One storyline that just won't go away this season is the race to the ticket office to sellout Bengals home games. The team has struggled to sellout games against the Broncos, Texans and Ravens while selling out Chicago, Pittsburgh and Cleveland relatively easy and quickly. However, the ugliness that is the storyline is showing up again. Bengals.com writes:

The Bengals say more than 6,000 tickets remain for Sunday's 1 p.m. game against the Lions at Paul Brown Stadium and based on Monday morning's response to the division sweep completed against the Browns they aren't optimistic about extending the sellout streak to 51 and having the game televised on Fox 19 in Cincinnati.

I guess Lions fans don't travel well. Then again, the pessimism displayed in this article could easily be a ploy to get fans to the ticket office sooner, rather than eating the cost of the remaining tickets so the team will be on local television. Either way, the Bengals need to sell "more than 6,000 tickets" for Sunday's game by the 1pm deadline on Thursday (72 hours before kickoff). After the Lions, the Bengals hit the road against two division leading teams in Minnesota and San Diego before returning for their final regular season game at Paul Brown stadium hosting the Kansas City Chiefs; another game expected to struggle with ticket sales.

Monday Notes: Dan Gronkowski to Be Activated from Practice Squad

Sean Yuille — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 11:12:23 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

3 months ago: Detroit Lions tight end Dan Gronkowski (47) catches a 21-yard touchdown reception from Drew Stanton as Indianapolis Colts safety Travis Key defends during the fourth quarter of an exhibition NFL football game Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009 in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

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As expected, Brandon Pettigrew's spot on the roster will be filled by rookie Dan Gronkowski, who is currently on the practice squad. Once Gronkowski is activated from the practice squad, it will mean that every single one of the Lions' 2009 draft picks made it to the active roster of an NFL team. All but one of them will have been on the Lions' active roster, as Lydon Murtha is on the Dolphins. I'd say that is pretty impressive and says a lot about the Lions' draft this year, though it also says a lot about the lack of talent on this team.
Dewayne White is probably going to return against the Bengals this week.
Jim Schwartz didn't express any regret over starting Matthew Stafford and made sure to point out that his shoulder was not the reason for his interceptions.
Packers tight end Jermichael Finley apparently told Louis Delmas that "payback's coming" after Delmas delivered what is considered a dirty hit on him during the game on Thursday. The payback never actually came, but Finley hopes that Delmas will receive a fine for the hit. My guess is that Finley will be satisfied in that regard, because Delmas will almost certainly have to open his checkbook.
Matthew Stafford was voted the NFL Rookie of the Week for his performance against the Browns.
The Silverdome's new owners plan on using the facility for more than just soccer.

Extended Recap: Green Bay Packers Defeat Lions 34-12

Brandon — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 06:20:53 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

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I was nervous the entire first quarter while watching the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving. The Lions had a quick 7-0 lead, and the Packer offense had already stalled once before they missed a FG attempt. I was wondering if this was going to be like their last loss in Tampa. But once QB Matthew Stafford threw his first INT, and QB Aaron Rodgers completed a 68 yard pass to WR Donald Driver to end the 1st quarter, I wasn't nervous anymore.

The Lions weren't exactly a big test for the Packers, they beat them in most major categories like points, yards (422 to 272), time of possession (33:59 to 26:01), and turnovers recovered (5 to 2). But I'm not a big believer in tests, or teams having to prove something. I believe in wins against any team they play, as they right now control their own destiny for a wild card playoff spot. And also stay healthy, which is something they did a good job of on Thanksgiving.

The complete play-by-play recap is after the jump.

Packers vs Lions coverage; Packers vs Lions recap; Packers vs Lions boxscore; Pride Of Detroit

Play-by-play from NFL.com:

First Quarter

4-J.Hanson kicks 71 yards from DET 30 to GB -1. 87-J.Nelson to GB 21 for 22 yards (75-T.McBride). FUMBLES (75-T.McBride), RECOVERED by DET-57-J.Dizon at GB 20. 57-J.Dizon to GB 20 for no gain (87-J.Nelson).

And they started the game with a thud. The special teams were awful, committing 4 penalties (1 intentional 4th quarter delay of game), and 2 big kick returns could have even been bigger if not for saving tackles by TE Spencer Havner and K Mason Crosby.

(14:23) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 84-B.Pettigrew pushed ob at GB 6 for 12 yards (50-A.Hawk).

It was interesting that this was their first pass play. The Lions must have seen something they liked because they threw 13 passes to their tight ends, usually out in the flat. None of them were big plays, but Stafford completed 9 of them, so they were just about as successful as anything they did on offense. Unfortunately this was the last one for rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew. He suffered a season ending knee injury on the play.

(13:07) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 81-C.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Instead of taking advantage of the LBs in coverage against the tight end, the Lions decided to force 12 passes to an obviously hurting WR Calvin Johnson. This was their biggest offensive play of the game, and maybe it gave them false hope that Johnson could have a big game. Instead, it just might have made CB Charles Woodson very angry.

(12:16) 25-R.Grant right tackle to GB 32 for 15 yards (41-W.James).

This was a good run in a game with few good runs. RB Ryan Grant should have had a big game against a weak Lions run defense, but instead he had a poor game (only 3.1 yards/carry). Four days earlier, he was great against an excellent 49ers run defense.

(4:43) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

More lousy special teams. As good as this drive was, the Packers were forced to convert four times on 3rd down and they went 3 for 4. It seemed odd since the Packers weren't taking any shots down field against a defense that was torched 4 days earlier. 10 minutes into the game, down 7-0, and I'll admit I was a little nervous.

(1:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 89-W.Heller INTERCEPTED by 36-N.Collins at GB 26. 36-N.Collins ran ob at GB 26 for no gain.

The Lions were getting a little something going, moving the ball 30 yards after the missed FG, and FS Nick Collins made a great reaction on the ball. Watch the replay.

(:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 80-D.Driver to DET 7 for 68 yards (25-M.White).

What a way to end the quarter. The Packers were still down 7-0 at this point, but after watching them force an INT and 3 plays later attack the awful Lion secondary, it felt like they had turned the corner.

Second Quarter

(15:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 86-D.Lee for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

That was quite a leap by TE Donald Lee. Watch the replay.

(14:26) 34-K.Smith left tackle to DET 34 for 4 yards (36-N.Collins).

There were a few times in the game when RB Kevin Smith got a cutback lane, and it looked like he could bust out for a big gain. But there was always a Packer there to tackle him, and Smith didn't have a single carry for more than 6 yards. Everyone on defense did their part on run defense.

(8:24) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 88-J.Finley. GB-88-J.Finley was injured during the play. His return is Probable. PENALTY on DET-26-L.Delmas, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DET 40.

(8:19) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-J.Finley to DET 16 for 9 yards (25-M.White). PENALTY on DET-25-M.White, Horse Collar, 8 yards, enforced at DET 16.

It was rough going for TE Jermichael Finley on those two consecutive plays. He took one (two) for the team, and set up a 1st and goal, but they settled for a FG.

(5:28) 34-K.Smith up the middle to DET 44 for -4 yards (90-B.Raji).

(4:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 86-D.Northcutt INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Williams at GB 40. 38-T.Williams pushed ob at GB 46 for 6 yards (86-D.Northcutt).

DE B.J. Raji slipped a tackle and got quickly into the backfield. His tackle set up a 3rd and 5, which was then intercepted by CB Tramon Williams. Two great plays in a row.

(1:03) 2-M.Crosby 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-M.Flynn.

Another good drive ends in a FG (or FG miss). They've been settling for a lot of FGs the past two weeks, but overall they're still about average (scoring a TD about 51% of the time in the red zone). It's a bad trend, but it's hard to call it a problem since the offense is playing so well overall.

(:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 48 for -8 yards (52-C.Matthews).

What would you call that sack by LB Clay Matthews? Tenacious? Watch it here.

Third Quarter

(14:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 80-B.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DET 38. 21-C.Woodson to DET 38 for no gain (80-B.Johnson). Detroit challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was Upheld. (Timeout #1 at 14:06.)

He had a sack in the 1st half, but the Woodson show got going early in the 2nd half. The 1st of his 2 INTs.

(13:27) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 86-D.Lee.

Lee had a TD earlier, but he had been dropping some passes in recent games. I'd been wondering if TE Spencer Havner should be playing ahead of him. This play is another drop, and I'm not sure how he'll be going forward.

(12:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at DET 37 for -6 yards (59-J.Peterson). FUMBLES (59-J.Peterson) [59-J.Peterson], RECOVERED by DET-97-J.Hunter at DET 37. 97-J.Hunter to DET 37 for no gain (71-J.Sitton).

LT Chad Clifton left LB Julian Peterson unblocked, while Clifton blocked no one, and it led to the only sack of the game for the Lions on 4th down. Tom Pelissero goes into more detail about why Clifton's decision to leave Peterson unblocked was more complicated then it seemed, and that Rodgers should have gotten rid of the ball quickly since it was an empty backfield and they left no one in to block on a blitz.

(11:06) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Driver to DET 45 for 45 yards (41-W.James).

(9:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-D.Driver to DET 31 for 7 yards (23-K.Hobbs).

(6:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Driver for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [23-K.Hobbs].

A quick 3-and-out by the defense was somewhat wasted after a 51 yard net punt pinned the Packers down at their 10 yard line. But that didn't matter because WR Donald Driver took over. 59 yards alone on the drive, including the TD reception.

(1:31) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-J.Jones to DET 21 for 4 yards (41-W.James).

(:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 89-J.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Earlier this season, I was ready to write WR James Jones off. He only had a couple catches, and it seemed like Rodgers would only throw to him if he was wide, wide open. But he's become more involved in the offense (15 receptions in the last 4 games) and has 4 TDs on the season. He might never be good enough to start, but now he's doing well as a No. 3 receiver.

Fourth Quarter

(12:35) 7-J.Kapinos punts 57 yards to DET 11, Center-61-B.Goode. 86-D.Northcutt ran ob at DET 25 for 14 yards (51-B.Poppinga).

A conservative drive, the Packers were trying to kill some clock, ended with the Packers' first punt of the game.

(12:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 86-D.Northcutt to GB 22 for 47 yards (38-T.Williams).

If there was one weak link in the pass defense, it was CB Jarrett Bush. WR Dennis Northcutt got behind Bush, and ran away from him for the big gain. All the comments I've read about Bush are usually hoping he'll be released soon, and he didn't do anything in this game to prove to those fans that he's becoming a better defender.

(10:09) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 81-C.Johnson [20-A.Bigby]. Ball thrown away.

(10:05) 25-R.Grant right tackle to GB 1 for no gain (90-G.Jackson).

(9:22) 25-R.Grant right end to GB -1 for -2 yards (26-L.Delmas). FUMBLES (26-L.Delmas), RECOVERED by DET-57-J.Dizon at GB -1. TOUCHDOWN. Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 25-R.Grant right end tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (26-L.Delmas).

A big defensive stop on the 1 yard line leads to a collapse by the run blocking. I'm sure everyone blocking on those two running plays will be hearing it from their coaches next week.

(5:05) 4-J.Hanson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-2-N.Harris.

The drive stalled, but should Detroit have really been settling for a FG? No pass was completed for greater than 13 yards on the drive. They were just daring Stafford to make accurate, short passes. The Packers were going to let them work their way down the field, which was something they hadn't done well all game.

(3:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 81-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 21-C.Woodson at DET 38. 21-C.Woodson for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

(2:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 82-C.Fitzsimmons to DET 41 for 13 yards (21-C.Woodson). Green Bay challenged the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 82-C.Fitzsimmons to DET 40 for 12 yards (21-C.Woodson). FUMBLES (21-C.Woodson), RECOVERED by GB-21-C.Woodson at DET 41. Referee blew the ball dead.

Unlike their last game against the 49ers, the Packer offense wasn't able to run out the clock. They give the Lions two more chances, and Woodson forced two turnovers (one returned for a TD).

GOT NUMBERS? Analyzing the Bengals vs. the Browns

Ryan Kelsey — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 19:44:50 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

We can only hope the Bengals keep feeding the ball to the overrated Cedric Benson. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke, File)

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Well, the Browns have shown a little competence throwing the football for the first time in about 20 games. Granted, it was against one of the worst defenses I can remember in the NFL, but at this point, we'll take it. Now the Browns take on a team fighting for a Division title and playoff positioning. I'm still waiting for the Bengals to self-destruct, and perhaps that started to happen last week, when the Raiders knocked them off in Oakland. Taking the season as a whole, however, the Bengals look like a pretty strong team.

This isn't your slightly-older-brother-in-law's Bengals. Cincinnati has scored 24 or more only twice in ten games. Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and Chris Henry still are capable of putting up points through the passing game, but the strengths of this year's Bengals is purportedly their defense and the running of Cedric Benson. Let's see if the numbers agree.

Once again, the stats I use are from Football Outsiders:

A quick note about the stats I'm going to use in this regular column. The full explanation can be found here. Basically, Football Outsiders uses the data from every play and finds the league average (adjusting for yards gained in the redzone, touchdowns scored, and the down and distance- so a 3 yard TD run on 3rd-and-1 from the 3 means a lot more than a 3 yard run on 3rd-and-15 from your own 20.) Then it rates players and teams based on their relation to this league average. The result is meaningful rate stats. They are akin to league adjusted stats in baseball, like OPS+ and ERA+. DVOA is the most common stat they use and 0.0 is exactly league average. A 10.0% DVOA for a QB means a QB that is 10.0% better than average. -15.0% DVOA means 15% below average for a QB. For defensive numbers they are reversed, so negative numbers are better.

Got all that? No? Well, then trust me when I say, higher positive numbers are good for offensive players and lower or negative numbers are good for defenses. 0.0% is always average.

And my personal caveat using these numbers in football: here.

Going into the Raiders game, the Bengals ranked 7th in offensive efficiency, but after struggling against a bad Oakland team, they fell all the way to 17th! That is a huge fall this late in the season. Their offensive DVOA is an average-y 12.0%. Despite what you may hear, they are still much more efficient passing than running. They rank 7th in the league in passing efficiency at 38.6%, but just 13th in running efficiency at 1.4%. The Browns defense seems to rotate games from actually good (Buffalo, Baltimore at home) to bad, but promising (Chicago, Pittsburgh on the road), to just bad (Detroit, Green Bay). It really is hard to say which Browns D will show up, but in total the numbers are ugly, now 30th in Defensive efficiency (down from 29th).

After a quick look at the stats, I'd argue the Bengals are running more than they should. Carson Palmer is a top 5 talent and should be in his prime. While his DVOA ranks 8th in the league (24.9%), he has only dropped back to pass 336 times. In fact, the Bengals are 23rd in pass attempts per game. It isn't because they have been up big in games or have struggled with time of possession. They are simply over committed to the run. More on that in a bit. When they do throw, WR Chad Ochocinco is their number 1 target with 85 passes thrown his way. He is back to Pro Bowl caliber: his DYAR (total value) is 185, good for 12th in the league among WRs and on a per play/efficiency basis he is 21st in the league with a DVOA of 13.8%. Laveranues Coles has been a bit of a disappointment (DVOA 3.1%) and Andre Caldwell is more of a threat in the return game than the passing game. The other big weapon in the passing game is Brian Leonard. The FB/RB has a DVOA of 28.4% (7th in the league among pass catching RBs). The Browns have been bad against the pass overall- 30th in the league with a 31.9% DVOA. Most of the damage has been done by #1 WRs (25.4% DVOA, 30th in the NFL), while holding #2 WRs in check (-12.5%, 13th). So, look for Ochocinco to have a good day and Coles to continue to struggle. However:

I've felt that over the last several seasons the biggest part of the Bengals offense is WR Chris Henry. When he plays and Palmer looks his way, the Bengals offense seems unstoppable. This year is no exception. While only getting 23 passes thrown his way, his DVOA on those plays is a good great 24.3%- which would be top 10 if he had enough passes thrown his way to qualify.

In protecting the QB, the Bengals had fared pretty well before the Raider game- 6th in the league in sack rate at 4.4% (Football Outsiders has yet to update their offensive line stats from last week and the Raiders were able to get to Palmer 3 times in just 25 drop backs). The Browns (not counting the Lions game) have got to the QB a league average 6.6% of the times their opponents have dropped back.

If you have followed the Bengals or the NFL at all through the main stream sources this year, you have heard about the great comeback season of RB Cedric Benson. He is having the type of season that is constantly overrated by these espn-types. He is a "feature back", an "every-down back", a "workhorse". Which sounds nice, but the reason most teams don't have one of these isn't because they are hard to find. It is because most teams realize the more effective way to score is through the passing game and mixing several fresh running backs, usually of different styles. (The exception is if you have a truly great back like Steven Jackson or Adrian Peterson.) So while Benson has racked up a lot of rushing yards (859 in 9 games- good for 6th in the league), he has only done so because he has received a ton of carries (205- 2nd most in the league). Given all those carries, the yards and his 6 TDs aren't too impressive. In fact, his DVOA is just 5.8%, good for just 18th among 37 qualified RBs. And his success rate is just 43%, just 25th among those 37 RBs. The Browns defense is 30th in the league against the run with a DVOA of 11.3%. So even if the Bengals remain stubborn with the run, it will be tough for the Browns to make them pay.

The Browns had an offensive explosion last week, scoring 37 points, thrashing the Lions through the air. But the Browns offense didn't move in the offensive efficiency standings: 31st in the league at -28.7%. DVOA just wasn't impressed with the success against a terrible defense (Detroit did fall from 30th to 32nd in defensive efficiency because of the Browns' efforts- now that's embarrassing!). Still, the Browns showed some flashes of brilliance, especially QB Brady Quinn. Hopefully, they can build on that against a league average defense.

And when I say league average, I mean it. The Bengals are as close to league average on D as you can get: 17th in the league overall with a DVOA of 1.6%, 16th in Pass defense at 6.6%, 16th in run defense at -5.2%. They do have some clear strengths and weaknesses though. CB Johnathan Joseph and Co. have shut down #1 WRs to the tune of -42% DVOA, good for 3rd in the league. So Massaquoi will likely have a tough time Sunday. But CB Leon Hall and Co. have contained #2 WRs too (-14.5% DVOA, 11th in the league). AND they are 7th against TEs. Where they struggle is "other" WRs and RBs. Brady will have to look for WR Mike Furrey, WR Josh Cribbs, RB Jamal Lewis, RB Chris Jennings if he is going to have success. This will likely lead to frustrating checkdowns and short routes, but if these players can break a couple tackles after the catch, it will go a long way to us scoring some points. Also, I'd love to see another play like the one Jennings dropped against Detroit. Or a slot receiver running a skinny post to challenge the deep middle of the Bengals defense, exploiting the young and undisciplined Cincinnati LBs in pass coverage.

In protecting the QBs, the Browns' line ranks 22nd giving up a sack on 7% of drop backs. The Bengals get to the QB 6.5% of the time, good for 19th in the league. (again, these numbers were before last week).

Like the Bengals, the Browns run way too much for my taste. But at least the Browns are more creative about it. Running out of the Wildcat (both Cribbs and handoffs to other RBs), mixing in end around plays, and other RBs with Lewis (be it Harrison or Jennings). Despite the "creativity" the running game finds itself in the bottom quarter of the league, at 25th in the league (-8.0% DVOA). That's close enough to league average to expect a little success Sunday against the Bengals league average run D.

The Browns remain 2nd in the league overall in special teams DVOA (8.8%). They are still lead by a Josh Cribbs' punt return unit (1st in the league at 11.9% DVOA) and a Cribbs' kick return unit that ranks 6th in the league (7.7%). The Browns coverage units are also very good. The kick blocking ability of Shaun Rogers is unfairly discounted by Football Outsiders (it is factored in, but they consider opposition FG and XPs out of a team's control and weight their numbers accordingly), and that is yet another strength of the team. The Bengals special teams are ranked 26th at -3%. They have a decent punt return team lead by Caldwell. But they really struggle in the FG and XP units. They are second-to- last in the league, mainly because of problems with their long snapper (they are on their 2nd of the season, and he hasn't been perfect either) and getting the ball down for Shane Graham.

Besides a couple very, very good young corners and a very good QB, I don't think the Bengals are very good. They have pulled out some close divisional games and destroyed the Bears. Other than that, they have lost to an average Denver team, an average Houston team, and a terrible Raiders team. They seem to play down to their competition (probably because they stubbornly run the ball, keeping their opponents in the game). I don't see this changing this week. The Browns are coming off their best game of the season offensively, the Bengals are coming off their worst. The Browns offense isn't good enough to score a lot of points like they did against the terrible Lions, but their are weaknesses to be exploited. Three big questions that will determine the winner:

1. Can Daboll, Mangini, and Carl Smith come up with two good offensive game plans in a row (i.e. forcing their LBs to cover our RBs in pass coverage and testing their safetys with deep down the middle passes to Furrey)?

2. Which version of the Browns defense will show up, the one that shut down the Ravens or the one that slept through the Lions game?

3. Will the Bengals continue to stubbornly give the ball to the average Cedric Benson more than the very good Carson Palmer?

Prediction: Browns 23 Bengals 24

The Packers Straightforward Defense

Brandon — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 07:03:24 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

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From Tom Pelissero at the Press-Gazette:

This was as straightforward a game plan as Capers has put together. The Packers played 60 of 77 snaps (77.9 percent) in nickel against Scott Linehan’s three-wide offense. The rest was base (16 snaps) and a single snap of prevent — no dime, no "corner Okie," no "big Okie," not even any goal-line defense as the Packers made a pair of key red-zone stands.

The blitz package wasn’t extensive, with extra-man pressure coming on only 11 of 47 dropbacks (23.4 percent) even as the Lions threw heavily in the fourth quarter. Slot blitzes were especially rare with CB Jarrett Bush taking Woodson’s usual spot in the nickel.

The secondary did most of its damage out of basic zones, with FS Nick Collins exploding from Cover-2 to record the first of four interceptions and CBs Tramon Williams and Woodson each getting one in quarters coverage.

As good as QB Matthew Stafford looked against the Browns, Capers must have watched the game film and saw that Stafford is still playing like a rookie QB. He mixed up the coverage a little, sometimes it was cover-2 and sometimes it was man coverage, but he didn't blitz much and he let his excellent secondary wait for Stafford to make a mistake. A good job by the coach to identify that his players could beat their players, and then to let them do just that.

Week 12 Preview: Bears (4-6) at Vikings (9-1)

SackMan — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:57:24 -0000

More photos » by Andy King - AP

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The Bears will display their pitifulness on national TV once again, when they visit the Vikings Sunday afternoon at 4:15pm ET on FOX. Over the course of the remainder of the season, the Bears figure to win one game that they're not supposed to win. However, I highly doubt it's this one.

Week 12 Recap

The Vikings: Brett Favre and the purple machine kept rolling last week, when they humiliated the the Seahawks in the Metrodome 35-9. Favre set another personal mark with a career high 88% completion ratio on a 22-25 afternoon.

The Bears: Jay Cutler and company shot themselves in the foot again... letting a winnable game vs the Eagles get away. Only this time, Cutler waited until the final possession in the 4th quarter, with the game on the line, to throw his first INT of the game. Kudos Jay... way to keep us in suspense.

Quick Numbers:

112.1: Brett Favre's QB rating on the year.
875: Receiving yards for Sidney Rice... 4th in the NFL.
3.3: Matt Forte's YPC on the season.
18: Interceptions for Jay Cutler... at least he's leading the NFL in one category.

When the Vikings have the ball.
I'm going to be real brief with this one. They're 9-1... they have the best RB in the league, a HOF QB, and plenty of weapons. We know who they are... there's nothing they don't do well. Let's move on.

The key match-up for the Vikings: G Steve Hutchinson vs the Bears LBs
Hutch is one of the best run blocking guards in the NFL... and he gets to the second level and clears the way for Purple Jesus. Bears LBs have to find a way to shed his block and make a tackle to keep this game from getting out of hand.

The X factor on offense for the Vikings: WR Percy Harvin
The rookie is a playmaker. Period. He's comparable to Devin Hester, except he's way more in tune with his role on offense.

When the Bears have the ball.
This offense seemingly gets worse every week, as nobody has played with any consistency the entire year, except for perhaps Frank Omiyale... who has consistently sucked and found his way to the bench. Let's see if Ron Turner finally figures something out, and gets Jay Cutler moving out of the pocket with regularity, where he can minimize the weakness of the O-line, and force defenders to commit in coverage.

The key match-up for the Bears: LT Orlando Pace vs DE Jared Allen
The Vikings D leads the NFL in sacks, and Allen's a beast... enough said.

The X Factor on offense for the Bears: WR Devin Hester
Hester has put together a personal highlight reel vs the Vikings over his career... so, maybe he'll add on to it this Sunday.

Side notes from the NFC North:

Vikings: They're leading the division at 9-1, and licking their chops to kick our butt.

Lions: Matthew Stafford is proving to one tough SOB, and has the makings of a leader. This division is going to boast a nice group of QBs.

Packers: Speaking of tough SOBs, Aaron Rodgers takes a lickin, and keeps on tickin. He's now been sacked 44 times, but it hasn't stopped him from being one of the league's best.

Brandon Pettigrew Out for Season

Sean Yuille — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:28:35 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

Detroit Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew, right, catches a game-winning touchdown pass against the Cleveland Browns. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

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From the Lions' official site:

Today’s MRI revealed that TE Brandon Pettigrew’s knee injury suffered against the Green Bay Packers will require season-ending surgery.

This is really disappointing, because Pettigrew was really starting to play quite well lately. He and Stafford were developing a nice rapport, and Pettigrew was making a lot of big plays. Although Casey FitzSimmons and Will Heller did a good job of filling in for Pettigrew yesterday after he suffered the knee injury, it would have been nice for the rookie to continue to develop. Instead he is out for the season and will be headed to injured reserve.

Drive-By-Drive Breakdown of Packers' 34-12 Win Over Lions

Sean Yuille — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 21:24:00 -0000

More photos » by Tony Ding - AP

5 days ago: Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) is sacked by Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Johnny Jolly, right, in the second quarter of an NFL football game Thursday, Nov. 26, 2009, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Tony Ding)

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Here is a drive-by-drive look at how the Packers beat the Lions by a score of 34-12 on Sunday.

1st Quarter

This game couldn't have gotten off to a better start for the Lions. Green Bay's Jordy Nelson fumbled the opening kickoff and Jordon Dizon recovered to give the Lions the ball at the 20-yard line. A 12-yard pass to Brandon Pettigrew after a 2-yard run by Kevin Smith moved the Lions down to the 6, and a penalty for roughing the passer moved Detroit down to the 3. (Pettigrew was injured on the roughing the passer play and didn't return, by the way.) Smith picked up a couple yards on the next play, setting up a 1-yard touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson. It was just a simple out pattern and the timing couldn't have been better, as it was a perfect play that put the Lions up 7-0.
The Packers' offense finally got on the field and just as we all expected, it moved the ball quite well. Green Bay was faced with third down on three different occasions, and each time it moved the chains. The Lions' defense finally did get a stop on the fourth third down of the drive, and the 8-minute or so long possession came to an end on a missed field goal. Mason Crosby booted the 43-yard attempt wide right, and Green Bay's lengthy drive was all for naught.
With a chance to extend its lead to two possessions, the Lions moved down the field initially thanks to Kevin Smith and Casey FitzSimmons. The drive came to a disappointing end, however, after Detroit got down to Green Bay's 37-yard line and faced 3rd and 3. Stafford was under heavy pressure and made a bad pass that was intercepted by Nick Collins at the 26.

The Packers quickly had 3rd and 11, and on the final play of the opening quarter Aaron Rodgers heaved a bomb downfield for an open Donald Driver, who made the catch for a gain of 68 yards. Rodgers had so much time to throw that Driver managed to get behind the coverage, so this big play happened because of a terrible pass rush and the defensive backs only being able to stay on their guys for so long.

2nd Quarter

Donald Lee scored on a tight end screen from 7 yards out to start the second quarter, tying the game up at 7.
The Lions moved the chains once before having to punt because Dennis Northcutt dropped a pass on 3rd and 6.
The Packers again moved the ball down the field thanks to third-down conversions before Lions penalties took over. Louis Delmas made a terrible play and drilled Jermichael Finley despite the pass sailing over both of them, resulting in a personal foul penalty. Then, on the very next play, Marvin White was flagged for a horse collar tackle, moving the Packers down to the 8. Detroit's defense did a good job in the red zone yet again, however, keeping the Packers out of the end zone and holding them to a 20-yard field goal.
An unnecessary roughness penalty on the Packers on the proceeding kickoff gave Detroit great field position, but that didn't mean much since Matthew Stafford was picked off again just three plays into the drive. He threw a bad pass off of his back foot and gave the Packers the ball near midfield.
Green Bay moved the ball quite effectively once again until they reached the red zone, which is when the Lions made a stop and Mason Crosby had to kick another field goal. This one was from 25 yards out and put Green Bay up 13-7.
The Lions had about a minute left in the half to do something, and a face mask penalty moved Detroit into GB territory. Detroit didn't move the ball after that, though, and Stafford was sacked twice in the next four plays as the half came to an end.

3rd Quarter

Trailing by only 6 points, the Lions got the ball to start the second half and had a chance to cut the lead in half or possibly take the lead. Well, any hopes of that happening quickly came to an end when Matthew Stafford was picked off by Charles Woodson on the second play of the drive. Woodson made a great catch for the interception, and Green Bay took over on the Detroit 38.
The Lions' defense bailed out Stafford, because it held Green Bay to fourth down and the Packers decided to go for it. Julian Peterson smoked Aaron Rodgers from behind to force a fumble that was recovered by Jason Hunter at the 37. Just like that the Lions took over and again had a chance to put some points on the board.
Detroit's offensive woes continued on the next drive, and although it didn't turn the ball over this time, a three and out led to a punt.
Aaron Rodgers opened Green Bay's next drive with a 45-yard pass to Donald Driver, and after that he threw the ball on five straight plays. A scramble for 5 yards ended the streak of passes, but he went back to the air on the very next play and found Driver in the end zone for a 7-yard touchdown.
The Lions got a couple big plays to put Jason Hanson in position to kick a field goal after the drive stalled. Unlike last year, where Hanson was automatic from beyond 50 yards, he kicked the 54-yarder wide right.
Green Bay quickly capitalized on the missed kick by going down the field and scoring a touchdown in only 5 plays. Aaron Rodgers completed a 21-yard pass to James Jones for the score to put Green Bay up 27-7.

4th Quarter

Both teams went three and out to start the final quarter of the game, but the Lions' offense woke up on their next drive. A 47-yard pass to Dennis Northcutt was the spark the Lions needed, and after that they quickly moved down to the 1-yard line. Sadly that was as far as they got. Despite having three shots at the end zone from the 1, the Lions failed to score and turned the ball over on downs.
Detroit did pin Green Bay deep in their own territory because of the failed fourth down attempt, and that allowed Louis Delmas to tackle Ryan Grant in the end zone for a safety. The ball came loose and was recovered by Jordon Dizon for a touchdown, but the Packers challenged and Grant was ruled down. Even so, Detroit now trailed 27-9 and had momentum on its side.
A good return by Northcutt sparked another good big drive and again the Lions got down near the goal line. This time they failed to score from the 4, and rather than go for the touchdown, Jason Hanson came in and kicked a 22-yard field goal. The field goal made this a two-possession game, but not for long.
The Packers went three and out, and it looked like the Lions were on the verge of making things interesting. Well, Matthew Stafford did make one play interesting, but that was because Charles Woodson jumped a route and returned an interception to the house for a touchdown. The Lions now trailed 34-12, and this game was as good as over.
Woodson forced another turnover on the Lions' next drive, stripping Casey FitzSimmons of the ball and recovering it. The Packers were now able to run out the clock, sealing their 34-12 victory.

This was a case of the Lions taking a couple steps forward last week and a step back this week against Green Bay. The offense was basically missing for most of the game, and the defense, just like the first meeting at Lambeau Field, gave up a ton of big plays but kept the Packers' offense under 30 by holding them to a bunch of field goals.

Going forward, the Lions need to hope that Matthew Stafford gets healthy and stops making so many bad passes under pressure. That's tough for any quarterback to do, but Stafford has to learn to just take the sack or throw the ball away rather than try to make something happen. Let's just hope that he bounces back after this rough game with another great performance next week in Cincinnati.