SB Nation - Houston Texans

Checking The Pulse: Should Gary Kubiak Be Back In 2010?

Tim — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:28:05 -0000

Prior to the last flabbergasting loss, we asked how many games your Houston Texans had to win down the home stretch for Gary Kubiak to return next season. Judging from many of the comments that have been flying around BRB since last Sunday, it appears that several fans have made up their minds on the issue, regardless of what happens over the last month of the season.

Thus, we present a newer, seemingly simpler poll, with the possibility that said poll may become a weekly feature for the remainder of the season. Vote below, please. And if you believe Kubes should be handed his walking papers, kindly tell us your realistic replacement for Kubiak as head coach of the Texans in 2010 in the Comments below.

Seahawks vs Texans coverage

Poll

Should Gary Kubiak Return As Head Coach Of The Houston Texans Next Season?

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

23 days ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

Arizona Cardinals Fly Around the NFC West

najmsh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:15:46 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner (13) is hurried by San Francisco 49ers defensive end Justin Smith during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009.

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After a very intense (but fulfilling) week 13, the Arizona Cardinals find themselves atop the NFC West, a three game lead with four left to play. Maybe it was the confidence of our friends over at Niners Nation or maybe it was a product of the damage done to Cardinals fans’ psyches over the years, but many expected the Cardinals and the Niners to fight for first place in the division during the upcoming Monday Night Game. Thankfully, that is not the case.

San Francisco 49ers: The Niners are coming off one of their worst losses of the year (from a morale standpoint). Coach Mike Singletary came into the season wanting to instill a team mentality and a sense of toughness, and he was initially very successful in doing so. The Niners started 3-1, and came within a Brett Favre Hail Mary of being undefeated after 4 weeks (with 3 division wins), but it went downhill from there. Starting with a drubbing by Atlanta, the Niners went through a 4 game losing streak and ultimately lost 6 of their next 8 games. They are now tied with Seattle for second place in the division, and barring a Cardinals collapse, are out of the playoffs. There is a little optimism now, as many of the Niners faithful are confident that Alex Smith is the quarterback of the future. However, Mike Singletary and the much maligned Jimmy Raye need to find a way to make Smith successful while also incorporating Frank Gore into the offense (Gore has averaged only 10 carries/game over the last three games). The Niners play at home against the Cardinals this week, a game where the Cards are favored by 3.

Seattle Seahawks: It was a very up and down week for the Seattle Seahawks. Long time GM Tim Ruskell resigned from his post, inviting in a plethora of Mike Holmgren rumors. Ruskell inherited a loaded team and added a few Seahawk mainstays, including Lofa Tatupu and Leroy Hill, but much of his reign was marked with draft busts and bad trades. The team itself is coming off a close win against the 49ers and is tied for second place in the division at 5-7. The Seahawks are unexpectedly rebuilding in a year where many thought they would challenge the Cardinals for the division. On the bright side, they have two first round draft picks and if Mike Holmgren decides to come back as general manager, they could rebound quickly. Seattle is travelling to Reliant Stadium this week to take on the most schizophrenic team in the league, the Houston Texans.

St. Louis Rams: Injuries, injuries, injuries. After Sunday’s game against the Bears, the Rams had to put safety Oshimogho Atogwe on injured reserve, joining starting cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Ron Bartell. The Rams placed the franchise tag on Atogwe during the offseason and are shelling out close to $6 million for his services this year. They now have a big decision to make about his future with the team. The Rams are essentially headed for another top five pick, with problems at every offensive position except running back. St. Louis is travelling to Tennessee this week to take on the Tennessee Chris Johnsons, who are coming off their first loss since Vince Young was named the starting quarterback.

Division Leaders:

New Orleans Saints* (12-0) – (@ATL, DAL, TB, @CAR)

Minnesota Vikings (10-2) – (CIN, @CAR, @CHI, NYG)

Arizona Cardinals (8-4) – (@SF, @DET, STL, GB)

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) – (SD, @NO, @WAS, PHI) (I’m pretty sure the schedule makers were laughing uncontrollably while making Dallas’ December schedule)

Wild Card:

Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) – (@NYG, SF, DEN, @DAL)

Green Bay Packers (8-4) – (@CHI, @PIT, SEA, @ARI)

In the Hunt:

New York Giants (7-5) – (PHI, @WAS, CAR, @MIN)

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

BREAKING NEWS: Steve Slaton Done For Season

Tim — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 15:41:53 -0000

According to Adam Schefter's Twitter feed:

Another loss for Houston: Texans RB Steve Slaton will be placed on injured reserve -- out for the year.

If I wasn't already dead inside, I'd cry. Get ready for another month of Chris Brown, coupled with the continued irrational refusal to give Ryan Moats the lion's share of the work. Oh, wait...here come the tears after all.

Seahawks vs Texans coverage

Gary Kubiak: What To Do?

Jake — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:04:57 -0000

More photos » by Stephen Morton - AP

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The 2009 NFL season was supposed to be the breakout year for the Houston Texans. After two 8-8 seasons, they seemed primed for the franchise's first playoff season. Now, sitting at 5-7, the playoffs are not a possibility and the focus has shifted to embattled head coach Gary Kubiak.

Gary Kubiak is the second head coach of the Houston Texans. He was hired in 2006 to replace Dom Capers, who lead the expansion franchise to an 18-46 record over the first four years, including a 2-14 record in 2005. The move to Kubiak made sense. Kubiak is a Houston native who played college ball in the state of Texas before a 19 year playing and coaching career with the Denver Broncos, one of the best offensive teams of the last quarter century.

Something has gone awry. The hometown man has not been bad, but he certainly hasn't been good either. He currently has 27-33 record as a head coach and is on pace for a third consecutive .500 season (or maybe even worse). Anyone who has watched this team knows that it is capable of much more; six of the seven losses were winnable in the closing quarter of the game, yet the Texans came up short. Many speculate that this lack of "closing games" may cost Kubiak his job.

Many Texans fans feel this Kubiak's ouster is the right course of action. The NFL is an instant gratification league, and fans demand results. When the average Houston fan looks around at the turnaround success that Atlanta, Baltimore and Miami all experienced on the shoulders of first year head coaches last year, it's hard to feel loyalty to a coach that hasn't managed a playoff season in four years when those three coaches managed to do it in one.

What has killed Kubiak are the other AFC South teams. While the Kubiak-led Texans are a decent 20-16 against the rest of the league, they are an abysmal 7-17 against the Colts, Jaguars and Titans. For a team to be successful, they must at least break even in their division, something that the Texans have done only once since Kubiak's hire. Ironically, that .500 year was in 2006, which was the only season Kubiak managed less than 8-8 for the season.

As I implied earlier, Kubiak was hired for his offensive expertise. As a former quarterback, coach of that same position, and offensive coordinator, he certainly had the right pedigree. In 2006 he attempted to make that offense work with former first round pick David Carr. After finishing 28th in total offense with Carr, Kubiak and his general manager Rick Smith, who Kubiak brought with him from Denver, traded two second round picks in consecutive years for Atlanta backup quarterback Matt Schaub. Since that trade, the Texans finished 14th in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and are currently ranked 8th in total offense.

So on the offensive front the Texans have improved drastically under Kubiak. Unfortunately, the defense has not fared as well. Former defensive coordinator Richard Smith led an anemic defense that could not keep up with the offensive improvement. Many Texans fans were encouraged by the firing of Richard Smith, and the subsequent hiring of Frank Bush, another Kubiak colleague from his days in Denver. Bush, along with first-round pick and defensive rookie of the year candidate Brian Cushing, have given new life into the defense, which now ranks 16th.

Rankings are all well and good, but the one statistic that matters in the NFL is wins. You would assume a team that ranks 8th in total offense and 16th in total defense is a playoff caliber team; the Texans, however, find themselves effectively eliminated from that race. This leads us back to not closing games when they matter, something usually attributed to coaching. As stated, this attribute may cost him his job at the end of the season.

I personally think that firing Kubiak after the 2009 campaign would be a huge mistake. He is definitely not perfect, and this season has been the football equivalent of a root canal for me and all Texans fans. Consider, though, what replacing Kubiak would entail. It has been rumored that owner Bob McNair would be interested in a defensive-minded head coach. So what would that mean?

Kubiak runs a unique offense that relies on a smaller, zone blocking offensive line. Bill Cowher has been named as a potential suitor. Cowher was known as a power running coach, something that would require new offensive lineman and new running backs. The only other "established" head coach is Mike Shanahan, but you might as well forget about that possibility because even though his son is currently offensive coordinator, it is unlikely that he would step in to replace his friend and former protégé. The other option is a first-time head coach who is currently a defensive coordinator. While that move may or may not work to improve the defense, it is still unknown what would happen to the offense because without Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan would likely leave to coach with his father, who will undoubtedly be given a job somewhere.

There's more though. What happens to GM Rick Smith if Kubiak is canned? While Kubiak's performance can be questioned, it is obvious that Smith has done a phenomenal job to undo the damage done by former GM Charlie Casserly. There are only a handful of players left from the Casserly regime, which is not a coincidence. This roster was so devoid of talent when Smith took over that a complete re-tooling was necessary. Smith has traded for a QB who is arguably one of the top ten in the league, drafted key players including three Pro Bowlers, and brought in some (yes, just some) good free agent acquisitions, such as Antonio Smith.

I feel that it is a fact that Kubiak and Smith have improved this team significantly. It is possible that Kubiak is incapable of being a great coach because of his handling of game situations necessary for winning games late. We don't know that though; at this point it is just speculation. I think it's worth the risk of another gut-wrenching, underperforming season to validate that suspicion. Keep in mind that Kubiak still has a chance to lead the Texans to their first winning season ever this season, albeit a slim one. Even if that doesn't happen, and he produces yet another mediocre season, I say give him one more chance. We haven't seen enough failure yet to justify another complete do-over.

Oh, by the way, the resurgent Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens that had sharp turnarounds last year are all currently 6-6 and out of the playoffs as of right now. I would forgo instant gratification in exchange for sustained success. What about you?

Playing The Expectations Game

bigfatdrunk — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:04:24 -0000

Over the years, I've had the pleasure of working for some of the most grossly inept and incompetent managers in known history. A couple of them would make the Pointy Haired Boss absolutely brilliant by comparison. Recent games have reminded me of a conversation I had with one of those rocket scienticians.

At the time, I was managing asset portfolios for wealthy investors. My portfolios were absolutely skyrocketing, but my boss' were doing horribly. Worst of all, he had most of the assets under his control, and he refused to change his strategy, relinquish control, or just do anything different. As a result, we were bleeding clients and money.

I had the audacity to lay out a concrete plan for him to follow in order to keep clients, but he erupted into one of his typical histrionic displays. I gave notice about an hour later.

When he tried to convince me to stay, he claimed he had done a poor job setting my expectations about his portfolios' performance. His argument was asinine. It wasn't *his* fault the portfolios were doing so poorly; it was the market's fault, and I had to stay and convince clients of this "fact." I was stunned by the lack of logic and the earnestness in which he avoided culpability. Needless to say, I left, and the company is out of business today.

By now you are probably asking yourself: What is your point? Great question! I'm so glad you asked.

I believe we, and by "we" I mean we as fans and the team, have failed the expectations game. Allow me to explain what I mean.

After back-to-back years of 8-8 ball, it's fair to have greater expectations and believe we'll be better year-in/year-out as fans. The reality is this isn't so easy to accomplish. Every fan base has this expectation (except for the Lions, of course) that their team is good enough to compete. So we get excited and hopeful. Gary Kubiak should also have these expectations, especially from a younger team.

Where we have failed is recognizing that our talent is still simply not there. Talent acquisition is, sadly, a prolonged process. The team Kubiak and Rick Smith inherited was almost completely devoid of NFL-quality talent. Not only do I believe we need time to build and diversify our talent base, I'm not convinced we are adequately addressing our weaknesses.

Now, this isn't to say we aren't trying, but it is clear we have serious holes throughout our starting 22 and depth problems everywhere except for TE and WLB (which needs a real quality starter).

Here's an example: Our offensive line has become a true weakness thanks in part to injuries, but also due to the lack of talent here. Duane Brown and Eric Winston have been decent but beatable. Our G and C play has been absolutely atrocious this year, even before injuries took down Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel.

In other words, if we aren't winning the most basic, in-the-trenches battles, how can we possibly expect to win games?

Then, of course, are our expectations of FAIL. The team, at least. I had hoped the Miami game last year moved us beyond this. Or even the first BE-SF game this year. Especially in the second game against the Colts, you could see our body language change in the fourth quarter. We played down to our expectations, and it was depressing. If the Colts were in this position, there's no way they'd be hanging their heads in the same situation.

Obviously, part of the problem is Kubiak. I don't believe the team is under-prepared as much as poorly managed, both from a personnel and in-game perspective. But the lack of quality personnel is still the primary issue. However, Kubiak has got to do a better job in getting this team to play a full 60 minute game. The closest we've come to this was against the Bengals and somewhat versus the Bills. This is not acceptable.

Do I believe we need to fire Kubiak? I don't know. The offense especially is built around Kubiak's offensive style. The simple fact he believes Chris Brown is a legitimate goal-line back is an indictment of his ability to build a roster. Kubiak needs a more firm hand, and a better grip, of building his roster to meet his needs. At the same time, he has improved his in-game skills from last year (did somebody finally buy him Madden?).

Here's what I would like to see from a purely coaching standpoint:

Replace Bill Kollar (defensive line coach), Frank Bush, or both. I'm not sure who thought either of these guys would be a solution, but they clearly are not. When a Bills fan is taunting you about Kollar, you damn well know something is wrong.
Joe Marciano, special teams coach, should clearly go away. Not only do we make copious amounts of penalties, but he's managed to turn Andre Davis into a tip-toer on returns.
And we give Kubiak one. More. Year. That's it. No mas.

Again, I simply do not think we have the talent, on a personnel basis, to compete today. When you throw in the tremendous number of injuries to key elements of the team (Chester Pitts, Mike Brisiel, Owen Daniels, Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, Glover Quin, Eugene Wilson), we are going to be in trouble. Injuries are exacerbated by our obvious lack of depth, a problem that cannot be fixed in just one, two, or even three years. This is about expectations, and thoughts that we were a 12-4 team were optimistic and obviously misplaced. With a few breaks, was this possible? Chris Brown says "yes." We are, however probably better than 5-7 as well.

At this point, I don't see firing Kubiak as the answer. We need to let our current crop of rookies age just one more year, and another year of drafting will be helpful. This team was a massive sack of shit when Smithiak took over, and we have seen improvement. We all hoped the consolidation phase was over, but it was not. I think they deserve one more year to prove themselves incapable.

BRB's Comcastic Red Zone Review: Texans v. Jaguars

Tim — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:24:59 -0000

Brought to you by Comcast's Red Zone Channel, a quick look at how your Houston Texans fared in the red zone last Sunday in the latest punch to the gut (courtesy of the Jaguars):

Trips to Red Zone: 4
Scores in Red Zone: 3 (TD by Chris Brown, FG by Kris Brown, TD by Andre Johnson)
Red Zone Efficiency: 75%

Anyone care to guess what the halfback pass efficiency rate was?

Texans vs Jaguars coverage

Rams have big decision to make with Atogwe

VanRam — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 17:56:26 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Will Atogwe be a Ram in 2010?

Browse more photos »

Don't overlook the impact of St. Louis Rams FS Oshiomogho Atogwe's shoulder injury might have on his future with the team. From ESPN's Mike Sando today:

The potentially season-ending shoulder injury Atogwe suffered against the Bears makes this a good time to revisit his long-term future with the team. The Rams will have paid more than $6 million to Atogwe this season after naming him their franchise player. As much as the Rams appreciate Atogwe's approach and production, it's tough to envision a team with limited resources investing top dollar in a long-term deal for a good-but-not-great safety. The shoulder injury could make it tougher for Atogwe to command what he's worth even if he hits the market during the offseason.

That's tough to hear, given that Atogwe has been one of the few bright spots for the Rams defense since 2006, but as soon as news spread yesterday about Atogwe potentially being done for the season you had to know that this could impact his contract situation and status with the team.

Barring some major accord being reached between the league and the players union, the 2010 season will be uncapped. That means players with less than six seasons of experience who would otherwise qualify as unrestricted free agents at the end of their contracts - the rule is four seasons with the cap in place - will be restricted free agents. Atogwe reached the end of his rookie deal with the Rams last year, and the team used the franchise tag to keep him for 2009. Normally, he'd be an unrestricted free agent, but this year he'll be restricted, meaning that the Rams can tender him an offer and other teams would have to dole out draft picks should they sign him as a RFA. Or, the team could not tender him (or any RFA) an offer, but that would be kind of foolish except for players teams do not want back next season. An RFA offer would pay Atogwe considerably less than what he could earn as a free agent, hence his desire to get a long term deal with the Rams.

Will the Rams bring him back? Who knows. If the Rams go the RFA route with Atogwe, they risk a very unhappy player who won't have any leverage to holdout in that situation as he plays one more year to re-establish himself in the wake of this injury before the opportunity for a big pay day in 2011, when the threat of a lockout looms. Texans TE Owen Daniels ended up in a very similar situation this year.

The Rams have the first right of refusal if another team does make a contract offer to Atogwe. The player can refuse the offer outright, but can't play that season. Holding out isn't an option if they do sign such an offer because they risk being sued. What they can do is trade that player, or that player can demand to be traded, and let the new team figure out his contract.

The uncapped year and the RFA rules mean that the free agent market will be virtually nonexistent next season. Certainly not the free for all it usually is. Add to that the other restrictions imposed upon teams because of the lapsed CBA (such as the final four playoff teams not being allowed to sign free agents) and I think it sets up a much more active trade market than the NFL is used to seeing. Something to remember as we consider what free agent moves the Rams could/should make to rebuild the team.

As for Atogwe, the Rams can keep him on the cheap via the RFA route and try to work out a new contract or they can trade him. A favorable position for the front office to be in with Atogwe, but one that might lead to some bad blood. His injury will likely figure into the equation for what course the Rams pursue with their ballhawking free safety as teams weigh that in any trade offers and the Rams consider that when deciding at what RFA level they'll tender him an offer. Remember though, even the highest RFA level last season paid a player just $2.35 million.

When you think about the very limited possibilities via free agency this season, it makes the draft even more important for teams, especially rebuilding teams like the Rams. And in this year when he who has the most draft picks wins, trades to secure even more draft picks must be considered.

Should be one hell of an offseason.

Schaub Plans To Play Sunday And Andre Johnson Wants To Retire a Texan

Mike Kerns — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:06:14 -0000

Everyone can stop worrying about Andre Johnson possibly becoming frustrated and wanting out of Houston. On 610 AM this morning, he stated his desire to be here and retire here.

Matt Schaub also said that he would rehab his injured shoulder and plans to start on Sunday against Seattle.

You can hear the podcasts here. Certainly worth a listen.