SB Nation - Indianapolis Colts

No Huddle not exactly No Problem for the Broncos against the Colts

John Bena — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 01:56:52 -0000

The Broncos have had their struggles against the no-huddle offense this season, specifically starting with the game in Baltimore against the Ravens. Several teams during the 4-game losing streak did much of the same, keeping the Broncos from doing what they like to do on defense - rotate several players in and out, especially along the defensive line, depending on down and distance. Of course, no quarterback may be better at running a no huddle than Peyont Manning, who seemingly spends much of the game calling plays from the line of scrimmage.

The topic seemed like a good one to pass along to Frank Schwab, who covers the Broncos for the Colorado Springs Gazette. Schwab, who often asks fans via his Twitter Page(@fs3142) for their suggestions, was nice enough to report on what Josh McDaniels said when asked about the no huddle.

Broncos coach Josh McDaniels had a pretty blunt response when asked about defending Indianapolis' no-huddle offense, basically conceding that Denver won't be able to freely substitute because of the threat.

"We're not going to try to run a bunch of guys in and out the game," McDaniels said. "Nobody does against this team and we're not going to try to do it either."

One of the reasons teams have hurried up against the Broncos is to stop their substitutions. The Broncos rotate defensive linemen, and on passing situations bring in linebackers Wesley Woodyard and Robert Ayers and cornerback Ty Law. When McDaniels was asked how it would affect the defense if it can't substitute often, he again said it wasn't a viable option.

"We will not try to do something that's impossible to do, and that's impossible to do," McDaniels said. "If you don't have the right time - if the ball hasn't been thrown downfield 40 yards, if there's not a timeout on the field - you don't try to do that and disrupt the entire flow of your game by allowing (Manning) to create situations where you have to call timeouts or get 5-yard penalties that keep drives going. We're going to play with the guys that are out there and when we feel like we can substitute without issue, then we'll substitute if we need to."

In a lot of ways that answer was to be expected and much of it is coach-speak. Common sense tells us the Broncos will likely try and find ways, especially early in the game, to keep the Colts from getting into a rhythem in the no huddle - using time outs perhaps - especially in the first half.

Whatever the case, the Broncos need to have an answer if they are going to have a shot at the upset on Sunday. Thanks Frank!

Potent Quotables - Wednesday Ramblings from Dove Valley

John Bena — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 00:24:57 -0000

More photos » by Gail Burton - AP

about 9 hours ago: FILE - This is a Nov. 1, 2009, file photo showing Denver Broncos offensive tackle Ryan Harris leaving the field after an injury in the second quarter of an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, in Baltimore. Harris is done for the season. The third-year pro was put on injured reserve Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2009, with an injury to his right big toe. (AP Photo/Gail Burton, File)

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HEAD COACH JOSH McDANIELS

Opening statement

"We placed (T) Ryan Harris on injured reserve. We signed (T) Herb Taylor to the roster. Hopefully, everybody will be out there at practice."

On placing Harris on injured reserve

"His toe was too injured for him to be able to play without having a procedure. We're going to take care of that. After that happens, (with) the length of time that he would need to recover from that, it wouldn't make any sense for us to not make this move at this time on our roster."

On Harris' injury

"It was a toe injury."

On if Harris returned to game action too early against Kansas City

"No, he was fine. The previous injury was not the same injury. That has nothing to do with the new injury. It's the same toe, but it's not the same injury to the toe. It's kind of a fluke deal. He was playing well until the time that it happened."

On T Tyler Polumbus' improvement over the past five weeks

"I've seen a guy who's gained confidence because obviously, in this league when you're playing in the games, that experience is more valuable than the experience that you gain in the offseason and all the rest of it. He knows what we're doing. He knows our system. He communicates well with the other players. He's playing beside good players. We think that we have a guy who's getting better each week. He'll have a big challenge ahead of him this week."

On facing Indianapolis' no-huddle offense on Sunday

"We're just going to get lined up and play our call. That's it. We're not going to try to run a bunch of guys in and out of the game. Nobody does against this team. We're not going to try to do it either. You've got to line up and play good football. There's no more simple answer than that. That's what we need to do. That's what we're going to try to do."

On if the Broncos will use sub packages frequently against the Colts on Sunday

"We will not try to do something that is impossible to do, and that's impossible to do when you don't have the right time. If the ball hasn't been thrown down the field 40 yards, if there's not a timeout on the field, you don't try to do that and disrupt the entire flow of your game by allowing them to create situations where you have to call timeouts or you get five-yard penalties that keep the drive going and all the rest of it. We're going to play with the guys who are out there, and when we feel like we can substitute without issue, then we will substitute if we need to. If we don't need to substitute, then we're just going to play."

On Indianapolis Defensive Coordinator Larry Coyer's game plan

"I would say it's mostly the same philosophy, but you can tell that he's added a few different things that they haven't really done a lot of in the past. I'm not saying that that has taken over what they do. It certainly hasn't. The base things that they do, they're fairly simple in terms of the amount of volume of calls that they use, but they play faster than every team in the league. Everybody on this defense is fast. Their front is fast, they play fast, they stunt fast, they blitz fast (and) they cover fast. Everything that they do is about speed. That hasn't changed. He's added a few blitz-zones and some different coverage wrinkles here or there. They're playing as well as anybody in football on defense. They create a lot of turnovers (and) do a great job of stopping people in the red zone and on the goal line. Larry's done a great job with them."

On why opponents can't take advantage of Indianapolis' size on defense by running the football

"There's a quarterback on the other side who usually puts them ahead. I said the other day it's the best complimentary football team in the NFL, and it is. They play to each other. The offense tries to get out front. The defense rushes the passer and creates turnovers to give the ball back to the offense, which scores more points. Then you're behind by 14 or 21 points, and then if you hand the ball off three times in a row, you get booed. First of all, let me say this: they are not a bad run defense. If you could run the ball 40 times against them-that isn't going to be easy because again, the way that they stop the run is not the same way that we would stop the run, necessarily, or some other teams stop the run. They stunt and create disruption by picking people off or making two of your guys block one of their guys so that one of their fast players is free to the football. That's what they do. There are a lot of ways to skin a cat, and they do it a different way than some teams do, but they're really, really good at it and very effective. Everybody knows their job. They're extremely unselfish when they play run defense because there are a lot of people in that front who know, ‘Alright, I know I am not going to make the tackle on this play, but I'm going to go run in there and I'm going to take the guard and the center out, and now, somebody else is going to make the tackle behind me.' They have great trust and faith in their players."

On ranking Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning amongst all-time NFL quarterbacks

"I don't know where he stands in that. I'm not judging him or saying-I know he's one of the greatest of all time. He's unbelievable to prepare for. You can't beat him with a play call. You make the right call against some teams, and sometimes you have a better call than the other quarterback's coordinator made on their sideline, and hooray for you and you won one. With this guy, if he sees something or you show him something too early, it doesn't make any difference what the guy on the sideline called. He's going to make sure that he changes it to something that's going to hurt you. When he makes a decision to do that, usually, it ends up in a big play. There's a difference between him and everybody else because some other teams try to get out of a bad play and into a play that's a decent play. He tries to get out of a bad play and score a touchdown. He's an aggressive quarterback who gets rid of the football before you can get there most of the time. They've only (allowed) 10 sacks this year, and he's a great part of that. Their offensive line does a great job, but he does a great job, too. He attacks you at your very weakest point in every coverage, and that's what makes him so good."

On the Broncos secondary facing Manning

"When you play with a veteran secondary against him, that can help you. Certainly, we have to play well. The bottom line is when (WR) Reggie Wayne is out there, it doesn't make any difference who's on him. They're going to throw it to him. You're not going to put one guy out there on Reggie Wayne and say, ‘Okay, he won't throw it to Reggie today.' He's a great player. The two young kids who they have who are playing a lot, (WR Austin) Collie and (WR Pierre) Garcon, I don't know that I could imagine two young players coming into the league and then adapting to a difficult system and being able to work in pressure situations with a guy like Peyton Manning as well as those two have. It's remarkable what they've been able to do with those two kids. They're only going to get better. (TE Dallas) Clark is incredibly difficult to defend. You can try to take away some things, but ultimately, like I just said, he's going to throw it to the guy who you didn't take away, and you better be on him and you better be on him tight. You better try to get a pass rush on him because if you sit there and give him too much time and let him see what the coverage is, he's going to throw it to the right place."

On how Indianapolis TE Dallas Clark compares to Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez or San Diego TE Antonio Gates

"(He has) great hands. I would say (he is) as good as a route runner as those guys you mentioned. He's one of those guys who has a knack for getting open. He can do things with his body. He has great body control when he runs routes. He can sell things and then do something different off of it. The thing about all of their receivers, including Clark, is they don't need much space. If he's from-me-to-the-microphone (approximately six inches) open, the ball is going to be ‘here,' and he's going to catch it because he's got great hands and he's got a good quarterback throwing him the ball. They've got so many weapons. You can't double-team everybody. We've got good players on defense, and we've got to play good defense."

On his decision to practice inside today

"It's sunny, it's zero degrees and we're playing indoors (at Indianapolis on Sunday)."

On how to beat Indianapolis

"I think there have been a lot of teams that have played them tough, and there have been a lot of close games. They've won seven games (by less than) a touchdown this year, which tells you that they execute in those pressure situations and have executed in those pressure situations better than their opponents have. It's not out of the question for you or for any other team to be close and to be in the game in the second half or to be ahead in the second half. You can't play 56 minutes. If you've played 56 good minutes, you might have a smile on your face and you're going to lose. If you play 58 good minutes, it might be the same situation. You've got to play 60 minutes or longer if it takes longer, and you've got to continue to come back to the sideline and say, ‘Alright, what are we going to do the next series?' and go out there and play well again. You've got to battle them, and you've got to play really, really good football down in the red zone, on third down and in two-minute (situations) because that's where a lot of their games have been decided in those crucial situations at the end of the game. They've made more plays than their opponents have, and that's why they've won 12 in a row and 21 straight in the regular season. If you can take care of the football and you can play your best football down there when it matters most, you've got a chance to be in the game and then to win the game."

QB KYLE ORTON

On T Ryan Harris being placed on injured reserve

"He's certainly a good player for us and brings toughness and a little nastiness to the line, so it's disappointing to hear about it. (T) Tyler (Polumbus) will step in. He's played before and he's played well for us, and he's going to need to the rest of the year."

On if the offense changed during the four weeks Harris missed

"No, I don't let it affect me. The guys have a job to do, and they're expected to do it. Tyler is expected to do it just like Ryan does. He's done a good job. I don't feel the pressure anymore. We have tough task this week, obviously. Everybody knows that, but we expect to go out and play well."

On if play calls are different when Polumbus is in the game

"No, I don't think so. We've kind of gotten away from doing some empty stuff, but I don't think that has to do with Tyler. I think that's just where we're at as an offense. I don't think we've done a whole lot to specifically help Tyler."

On being aware of each play's timing when facing Indianapolis' pass rush

"All 11 guys on offense have to be aware of it. Receivers have to have urgency getting open, I have to have urgency getting the ball out and the offensive line has to do a great job of running them by and giving me a chance to step up. Not just myself, but all 11 guys have to be aware of that."

On having to play well against Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning

"When you're playing a 12-0 team, I think you've certainly got to bring it, but Peyton is one of the best there is and one of the best who ever played. I'm not going to sit here and try to outdo him, for sure. We'll have to play smart football, and we'll have to play turnover free and mistake free on offense and try to hold the ball as long as we can and let him sit on the sideline and have fun over there."

On the term "franchise quarterback"

"That's all on the franchise. That's all on the organization. That's probably the only way you can decide that is if the organization thinks you're one, then you're one. I guess we'll just wait and see."

On if Manning is a franchise quarterback

"Peyton is a Hall of Fame quarterback. There are big differences between franchise quarterbacks and Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Peyton is a Hall of Famer, and there are not many of those around."

On Manning's star power in Indiana

"Well, he's the Colts. When you think of the Colts, not only in Indiana but across the country, you think of Peyton Manning. He's a premier player, and he has been for a long time. I know how important he is back in the Midwest."

On playing on the road late in the season

"There's a disadvantage going on the road, I would probably say, this time of year. We're playing good teams, and it's tough to win on the road. You go into a dome, and it's going to be extremely loud. They're a dome team. There's no question about it. They're built for the dome. They're fast. This will be the fastest defense that we see all year. We're going to have to handle the operation, have to handle the crowd noise and with all that, have to be able to handle the edge and everything with their (defensive) ends. It'll be a tough task."

On the challenges Indianapolis' defense presents

"They just tell their ends to go the quarterback, and everybody else rallies to the run. The ends really have no responsibilities other than to come back with the quarterback. They get there a bunch and cause a lot of havoc. Everybody else on that defense is extremely fast and they rally to the ball. There are usually five or six of guys there to make the tackle and try to strip the ball out."

On Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney

"He's great. He's a great player, no question. He's done it for a long time. (DE Robert) Mathis is a great player. (LB Gary) Brackett is a great player. They've got young players-this is a younger team than when I played them last year, but their two secondary players are young and fast and they're not getting beat on the outside. We've got a lot of guys who we've got to account for this week."

On running the ball against Indianapolis' aggressive defensive ends

"A lot of draws are run against this team. A lot of screen passes, obviously, are run against this team, but like I said, they're so fast by the other nine guys who everybody rallies to the ball and they're there to make the plays. They play great team defense."

On scoring points against Indianapolis' defense

"We just know that we've got to go on 10-, 12-play drives. First of all, I think they've given up just a handful of plays over 15 yards, and that's in the run game and the pass game. To sit here and think we are going to have three-, four-play drives and hit big plays on them is kind of well wishing. We'll have to execute and take five yards and take five, six yards and take the backs and just know going into the game to be successful, we're going to have to drive the ball down, and when we get into the red zone, certainly, we're going to have to come away with touchdowns."

On the Broncos' offensive weapons helping him develop as a quarterback

"Everybody on our team has. This is the most talented offense I've played with, and obviously, it starts with the guys up front just giving me a bunch of time to throw and make my reads. I just feel that I'm a smart enough player that if I do have the time to sit back and read the defense, I am going to go the right place with the ball most of the time."

On if he has ever had to prepare for a defense that is playing as well as Indianapolis'

"Yeah, we've had to do it. Every year you've got to play defenses like this that are playing great. We feel like we're well matched with this team, and if we go out and do our job, we'll be just fine and win the game."

S BRIAN DAWKINS

On facing Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning

"A couple of times we've faced him, and they've won, I think, both of the times we played them. (It is a) very challenging preparation, as usual, for a good quarterback. This time is definitely no different with him having the weapons that he is using on the field right now."

On attacking Manning

"You can't let him know what (coverage) you are in. You have to do the best that you can to disguise what you are trying to do. From there, you've got to play football. Once the ball is snapped, you play football, and that is the end result in all the checks and all the things both sides of the ball that we will be doing defensively and offensively. When the ball is snapped, you have to make plays on the ball (and) you have to make tackles. We are in for a 60-minute game."

On if Colts' opponents try to disguise coverages

"You just do what you do. We have a veteran group in the secondary, obviously. We are going to do our best to make sure that we don't make the game easier for him than it already is for him. It is going to be, like I said, a 60-minute game of doing that, not getting tired of disguising."

On playing the undefeated New England Patriots in 2007 with the Philadelphia Eagles

"It seems like a decade ago as far as me playing with the Eagles and going against the Patriots in that situation. I just remember it was a hyped game. We were very jacked up because of the underdogs we were. I remember that, but that is a completely different ball team, completely different situation as far as I'm concerned, as far as where we are with this team and what we are looking to do. I don't think we are focused on that, to tell you the truth."

On if he will practice this week

"That's the plan. That's the plan: to practice and go out and be on the field with my teammates, doing what I can to help this football team this weekend. That is the intention."

On his physical condition

"I feel great. This is football. This is a contact sport. Things happen at different times. (You) may go through a stretch where you feel absolutely great, and then other times, especially late in the season, you are going to have to play through some things. This is nothing new for me."

On Indianapolis' winning streak

"What good is it going to do to be focused on somebody else's winning streak or what they are not doing? That is not what we are about. We are about this one game and what we have to do to see if we can pull out a victory (in) this one game. All those other victories and losses, whatever, even our losses, none of that stuff, means anything as far as this game is concerned. This is the most important game of our season right now at this point. That is what we need to focus on."

On where Manning ranks amongst all-time NFL quarterbacks

"I'm not going to tell you anything different. He is one of the best that I've ever faced as (far as) what he does with the football, his accuracy, his diagnosing defenses (and) him being able to put the ball where it needs to be to his receivers when he does check. I'm not telling you guys anything that you don't already know. He is one of the best to ever play this game."

On DL Vonnie Holliday's contribution to the defense

"Tremendous. Tremendous. He is a vocal guy. He is a guy that understands how to play his position in this defense. I think that has benefited some of the other guys who haven't played in this defense, allowing them to understand how to play their gaps and how to control different gaps and allow the linebackers to run free sometimes. He has been a tremendous, tremendous benefit for this team, and I'm so happy we were able to talk him into coming here."

On RB Correll Buckhalter's performance

"This is what I expect from Buck when he is healthy because this is what he did in Philadelphia when they gave him the chance. They didn't give him a lot of chances, having (Philadelphia RB Brian) Westbrook in front of him, but when he got in the game, he was one of the guys that gave us big plays. I remember last year in our stretch run, he was one of the guys that kept giving us play after play, even receiving the ball out of the backfield, giving us 50- and 60-plus yards after the catch. This is what I expect from him, and I don't think this is anything he doesn't expect from himself. I think he expects the same thing from himself. I'm just happy, and the Lord is blessing him to stay healthy."

On Buckhalter's comment that he may currently be faster than ever

"He is a blessed man of God. He is, and he knows that. He is a humble guy and throughout all that adversity, I was in his ear and I was always praying for him. Coming out the other end of that perseverance, he is a stronger person from it. You see the speed on the football field. Like I said, I'm just excited to be able to enjoy this with him the way it is happening right now."

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

23 days ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

Jim Sorgi, who has yet to take a snap all year, heads to injured reserve

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:33:06 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Indianapolis Colts quarterbacks Peyton Manning (left) and Jim Sorgi (right). (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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How a guy who never plays, never takes a single snap in a live game, could land on injured reserve sure beats the hell out of me. Alas, that is what longtime Colts back-up quarterback Jim Sorgi has done.

ESPN's Adam Shefter, via the wonderful web tool that is the bane of all instant information services, broke the news today that Sorgi has landed on IR. Replacing him on the active roster is Michael Toudouze, an offensive linemen who has been on and off the roster since he was drafted by the Colts in 2006.

Colts.com has confirmed the Sorgi to IR news.

With Sorgi gone for 2009, this means the only back-up currently on the active roster is rookie Curtis Painter out of Purdue. Unlike Sorgi, Painter has an arm, and can get the football down the field and into tight windows in coverage. But Painter is indeed a rookie, and if the Colts start to rest Manning prior to the playoffs, we will be seeing a lot of Painter, who is sure to make rookie mistakes throwing the football.

It's worth noting that last week the Colts worked out former Buffalo Bills quarterback J.P. Losman. This was likely done in anticipation of today's news. Since the Colts did not sign Losman after the workout, that should tell you what their general impressions of him were. The Colts also have rookie quarterback Drew Willy out of the University of Buffalo on the practice squad.

Tips to Bobzilla3 and Benewfa

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

Week 13: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 05:28:26 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Where's that #18 jersey again? (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Sorry again for the week off last week. I finally have everything back to where it was, waiting to see if my data can be recovered from my dead hard drive. I think what I have is correct, so we're going with it!

We're in the home stretch now of the season, and the Colts just keep right on ticking. Sunday saw the Colts take it to the Titans once again, being extremely efficient on offense, and making the big plays on defense to get the Colts to 12-0, one win away from the #1 seed and guaranteeing the Road to Miami comes through the Circle City. A few notes from the game:

The Colts have now won 12 games in 7 straight seasons. Only 7 other franchises have seven such seasons in their history! The Cowboys come the closest in terms of straight seasons with 4. The all-time record is 11 by the Cowboys, followed by the Colts' 10.
It happened against the Texans, but Peyton Manning passed John Elway for 3rd all time in Completions. Elway did it in 7250 passes. Manning? 6420.
Again from the win against the Texans (via Elias):

The Colts rallied from a 17-0 deficit to post a 35-27 win at Houston. It was the fifth time that Peyton Manning led his team to a regular-season victory after trailing by at least 17 points, a new NFL record. (Manning and the Colts also won the AFC title game in January 2007 after trailing the Patriots by 18 points.)

For comparison, they mentioned on Sunday night that Brett Favre has never come back from a 14 point deficit. I'm just saying...
We all know that the Colts have now won 21 consecutive regular season games, tying the record set by the Patriots just last season. I'd really like the Colts to get one more.

The win over the Titans certainly looked very nice, but what do the numbers say? Let's have a look:

Here are the numbers from Week 13:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	81.3%	4	76.5%	26	N	N	3-0
ANPY/A	7.838	11	5.182	13	Y	N	7-0
Turnovers	0	1	2	10	Y	N	9-1
Yds/Drive	39.78	6	37.50	22	N	N	3-0
ToP/Drive	3:00.1	7	3:17.9	29	N	N	6-1
Yds/Play	5.594	14	4.870	12	Y	N	5-1
First Downs/Drive	2.56	4	2.40	28	N	N	2-2
3rd/4th Down	64.3%	1	44.4%	23	N	N	6-0
Avg Start Pos	32.4	12	31.7	18	N	N	7-4
3 and Outs	3	11	1	30	N	N	3-2
RZ Eff	85.7%	3	48.6%	9	Y	N	5-4
Plays/Drive	7.111	5	7.700	32	N	N	4-3
Penalty Yds / Play	0.625	14	0.649	18	N	N	3-4
RB Success	55.6%	4	60.0%	32	N	N	3-6
Yds/Carry	3.26	21	4.30	21	N	Y	3-5
Net Punts Yds/Game	36.00	28	39.00	10	N	Y	2-3
Ranking - Week (32)	2		23		9
Ranking - Season (384)	15		278		115

Some thoughts:

It wasn't the greatest day passing the ball for Manning, but it rarely is against the Titans. Still above average though, along with the defense. Teams have rarely lost this year when they've done that (97-5).
3rd/4th Down conversions were key on Sunday, as the Colts had the best conversion rate in the league on Sunday, and the Titans missed a couple really big 4th downs.
Also key was Red Zone Efficiency. Offense ranked 3rd, Defense ranked 9th. Excellent job this week.
RB Success is very interesting this week. The offense were successful over 55% of their runs, good for 4th best in the league. That is fantastic against a defense like the Titans. But the defensive number is concerning: dead last. Now, I know the Colts held Chris Johnson in check the whole game, keeping him from breaking the long one. But he consistently gained yardage each time he touched the ball, which is what the defense needs to focus on. A 4.3 YPC is good, unless the other team actually gets 4 yards each time they run the ball: they'll march into the end zone.

Full Season Stats (12 games):

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	79.1%	1	Colts	70.3%	19	Jets	78-8	0.907
ANPY/A	7.655	4	Saints	4.699	8	Bills	97-5	0.951
Turnovers	1.25	4	Chargers	2.00	6	Saints	88-20	0.815
Yds/Drive	38.72	1	Colts	31.48	23	Packers	79-11	0.878
ToP/Drive	2:48.7	11	Bengals	2:58.0	32	Packers	86-24	0.782
Yds/Play	6.263	3	Saints	5.024	7	Jets	81-17	0.827
First Downs/Drive	2.24	1	Colts	1.87	28	Bengals	70-19	0.787
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	1	Colts	44.5%	30	Bengals	75-16	0.824
Avg Start Pos	28.3	25	Bears	27.4	7	Cardinals	87-26	0.770
3 and Outs	2.42	1	Colts	3.42	23	Eagles	57-21	0.731
RZ Eff	72.1%	3	Cardinals	57.5%	5	Redskins	59-33	0.641
Plays/Drive	6.182	2	Falcons	6.266	32	Packers	66-32	0.673
Penalty Yds / Play	0.610	2	Dolphins	0.885	7	Seahawks	65-38	0.631
RB Success	50.4%	8	Broncos	48.0%	19	Vikings	64-35	0.646
Yds/Carry	3.81	28	Titans	4.23	17	Ravens	43-43	0.500
Net Punts Yds/Game	38.95	22	Raiders	42.52	29	Patriots	35-43	0.449
Overall	1		Colts	20		Packers

A couple notes:

The Colts are, once again, the Best Offense in the NFL, leading in 5 categories, and Top 4 in 11/16 categories. These are all stats the Colts have excelled at in the past, so this should be no surprise to anyone.
The defense is still giving up the longest drives in the league, at almost 3 minutes a drive. They were doing great, but have struggled lately. Need to get this worked out before the Playoffs.
The Defense has been great forcing Turnovers, getting 2 / game. Fantastic. Also, the Red Zone Efficiency is great at 57.5%. To put this in perspective, the Colts offense is outscoring their opponents on each Red Zone trip by 5.0 - 4.0. NFL average is 3 RZ trips / game, so that is 3 points in the Colts favor, just from the Red Zone. Awesome.
This year, more than any other recent year, is defining the mantra: "Pass and defend the pass = Wins". 95.1% speaks for itself.

Gary Kubiak: What To Do?

Jake — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:04:57 -0000

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The 2009 NFL season was supposed to be the breakout year for the Houston Texans. After two 8-8 seasons, they seemed primed for the franchise's first playoff season. Now, sitting at 5-7, the playoffs are not a possibility and the focus has shifted to embattled head coach Gary Kubiak.

Gary Kubiak is the second head coach of the Houston Texans. He was hired in 2006 to replace Dom Capers, who lead the expansion franchise to an 18-46 record over the first four years, including a 2-14 record in 2005. The move to Kubiak made sense. Kubiak is a Houston native who played college ball in the state of Texas before a 19 year playing and coaching career with the Denver Broncos, one of the best offensive teams of the last quarter century.

Something has gone awry. The hometown man has not been bad, but he certainly hasn't been good either. He currently has 27-33 record as a head coach and is on pace for a third consecutive .500 season (or maybe even worse). Anyone who has watched this team knows that it is capable of much more; six of the seven losses were winnable in the closing quarter of the game, yet the Texans came up short. Many speculate that this lack of "closing games" may cost Kubiak his job.

Many Texans fans feel this Kubiak's ouster is the right course of action. The NFL is an instant gratification league, and fans demand results. When the average Houston fan looks around at the turnaround success that Atlanta, Baltimore and Miami all experienced on the shoulders of first year head coaches last year, it's hard to feel loyalty to a coach that hasn't managed a playoff season in four years when those three coaches managed to do it in one.

What has killed Kubiak are the other AFC South teams. While the Kubiak-led Texans are a decent 20-16 against the rest of the league, they are an abysmal 7-17 against the Colts, Jaguars and Titans. For a team to be successful, they must at least break even in their division, something that the Texans have done only once since Kubiak's hire. Ironically, that .500 year was in 2006, which was the only season Kubiak managed less than 8-8 for the season.

As I implied earlier, Kubiak was hired for his offensive expertise. As a former quarterback, coach of that same position, and offensive coordinator, he certainly had the right pedigree. In 2006 he attempted to make that offense work with former first round pick David Carr. After finishing 28th in total offense with Carr, Kubiak and his general manager Rick Smith, who Kubiak brought with him from Denver, traded two second round picks in consecutive years for Atlanta backup quarterback Matt Schaub. Since that trade, the Texans finished 14th in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and are currently ranked 8th in total offense.

So on the offensive front the Texans have improved drastically under Kubiak. Unfortunately, the defense has not fared as well. Former defensive coordinator Richard Smith led an anemic defense that could not keep up with the offensive improvement. Many Texans fans were encouraged by the firing of Richard Smith, and the subsequent hiring of Frank Bush, another Kubiak colleague from his days in Denver. Bush, along with first-round pick and defensive rookie of the year candidate Brian Cushing, have given new life into the defense, which now ranks 16th.

Rankings are all well and good, but the one statistic that matters in the NFL is wins. You would assume a team that ranks 8th in total offense and 16th in total defense is a playoff caliber team; the Texans, however, find themselves effectively eliminated from that race. This leads us back to not closing games when they matter, something usually attributed to coaching. As stated, this attribute may cost him his job at the end of the season.

I personally think that firing Kubiak after the 2009 campaign would be a huge mistake. He is definitely not perfect, and this season has been the football equivalent of a root canal for me and all Texans fans. Consider, though, what replacing Kubiak would entail. It has been rumored that owner Bob McNair would be interested in a defensive-minded head coach. So what would that mean?

Kubiak runs a unique offense that relies on a smaller, zone blocking offensive line. Bill Cowher has been named as a potential suitor. Cowher was known as a power running coach, something that would require new offensive lineman and new running backs. The only other "established" head coach is Mike Shanahan, but you might as well forget about that possibility because even though his son is currently offensive coordinator, it is unlikely that he would step in to replace his friend and former protégé. The other option is a first-time head coach who is currently a defensive coordinator. While that move may or may not work to improve the defense, it is still unknown what would happen to the offense because without Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan would likely leave to coach with his father, who will undoubtedly be given a job somewhere.

There's more though. What happens to GM Rick Smith if Kubiak is canned? While Kubiak's performance can be questioned, it is obvious that Smith has done a phenomenal job to undo the damage done by former GM Charlie Casserly. There are only a handful of players left from the Casserly regime, which is not a coincidence. This roster was so devoid of talent when Smith took over that a complete re-tooling was necessary. Smith has traded for a QB who is arguably one of the top ten in the league, drafted key players including three Pro Bowlers, and brought in some (yes, just some) good free agent acquisitions, such as Antonio Smith.

I feel that it is a fact that Kubiak and Smith have improved this team significantly. It is possible that Kubiak is incapable of being a great coach because of his handling of game situations necessary for winning games late. We don't know that though; at this point it is just speculation. I think it's worth the risk of another gut-wrenching, underperforming season to validate that suspicion. Keep in mind that Kubiak still has a chance to lead the Texans to their first winning season ever this season, albeit a slim one. Even if that doesn't happen, and he produces yet another mediocre season, I say give him one more chance. We haven't seen enough failure yet to justify another complete do-over.

Oh, by the way, the resurgent Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens that had sharp turnarounds last year are all currently 6-6 and out of the playoffs as of right now. I would forgo instant gratification in exchange for sustained success. What about you?

Playing The Expectations Game

bigfatdrunk — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:04:24 -0000

Over the years, I've had the pleasure of working for some of the most grossly inept and incompetent managers in known history. A couple of them would make the Pointy Haired Boss absolutely brilliant by comparison. Recent games have reminded me of a conversation I had with one of those rocket scienticians.

At the time, I was managing asset portfolios for wealthy investors. My portfolios were absolutely skyrocketing, but my boss' were doing horribly. Worst of all, he had most of the assets under his control, and he refused to change his strategy, relinquish control, or just do anything different. As a result, we were bleeding clients and money.

I had the audacity to lay out a concrete plan for him to follow in order to keep clients, but he erupted into one of his typical histrionic displays. I gave notice about an hour later.

When he tried to convince me to stay, he claimed he had done a poor job setting my expectations about his portfolios' performance. His argument was asinine. It wasn't *his* fault the portfolios were doing so poorly; it was the market's fault, and I had to stay and convince clients of this "fact." I was stunned by the lack of logic and the earnestness in which he avoided culpability. Needless to say, I left, and the company is out of business today.

By now you are probably asking yourself: What is your point? Great question! I'm so glad you asked.

I believe we, and by "we" I mean we as fans and the team, have failed the expectations game. Allow me to explain what I mean.

After back-to-back years of 8-8 ball, it's fair to have greater expectations and believe we'll be better year-in/year-out as fans. The reality is this isn't so easy to accomplish. Every fan base has this expectation (except for the Lions, of course) that their team is good enough to compete. So we get excited and hopeful. Gary Kubiak should also have these expectations, especially from a younger team.

Where we have failed is recognizing that our talent is still simply not there. Talent acquisition is, sadly, a prolonged process. The team Kubiak and Rick Smith inherited was almost completely devoid of NFL-quality talent. Not only do I believe we need time to build and diversify our talent base, I'm not convinced we are adequately addressing our weaknesses.

Now, this isn't to say we aren't trying, but it is clear we have serious holes throughout our starting 22 and depth problems everywhere except for TE and WLB (which needs a real quality starter).

Here's an example: Our offensive line has become a true weakness thanks in part to injuries, but also due to the lack of talent here. Duane Brown and Eric Winston have been decent but beatable. Our G and C play has been absolutely atrocious this year, even before injuries took down Chester Pitts and Mike Brisiel.

In other words, if we aren't winning the most basic, in-the-trenches battles, how can we possibly expect to win games?

Then, of course, are our expectations of FAIL. The team, at least. I had hoped the Miami game last year moved us beyond this. Or even the first BE-SF game this year. Especially in the second game against the Colts, you could see our body language change in the fourth quarter. We played down to our expectations, and it was depressing. If the Colts were in this position, there's no way they'd be hanging their heads in the same situation.

Obviously, part of the problem is Kubiak. I don't believe the team is under-prepared as much as poorly managed, both from a personnel and in-game perspective. But the lack of quality personnel is still the primary issue. However, Kubiak has got to do a better job in getting this team to play a full 60 minute game. The closest we've come to this was against the Bengals and somewhat versus the Bills. This is not acceptable.

Do I believe we need to fire Kubiak? I don't know. The offense especially is built around Kubiak's offensive style. The simple fact he believes Chris Brown is a legitimate goal-line back is an indictment of his ability to build a roster. Kubiak needs a more firm hand, and a better grip, of building his roster to meet his needs. At the same time, he has improved his in-game skills from last year (did somebody finally buy him Madden?).

Here's what I would like to see from a purely coaching standpoint:

Replace Bill Kollar (defensive line coach), Frank Bush, or both. I'm not sure who thought either of these guys would be a solution, but they clearly are not. When a Bills fan is taunting you about Kollar, you damn well know something is wrong.
Joe Marciano, special teams coach, should clearly go away. Not only do we make copious amounts of penalties, but he's managed to turn Andre Davis into a tip-toer on returns.
And we give Kubiak one. More. Year. That's it. No mas.

Again, I simply do not think we have the talent, on a personnel basis, to compete today. When you throw in the tremendous number of injuries to key elements of the team (Chester Pitts, Mike Brisiel, Owen Daniels, Antwaun Molden, Steve Slaton, Glover Quin, Eugene Wilson), we are going to be in trouble. Injuries are exacerbated by our obvious lack of depth, a problem that cannot be fixed in just one, two, or even three years. This is about expectations, and thoughts that we were a 12-4 team were optimistic and obviously misplaced. With a few breaks, was this possible? Chris Brown says "yes." We are, however probably better than 5-7 as well.

At this point, I don't see firing Kubiak as the answer. We need to let our current crop of rookies age just one more year, and another year of drafting will be helpful. This team was a massive sack of shit when Smithiak took over, and we have seen improvement. We all hoped the consolidation phase was over, but it was not. I think they deserve one more year to prove themselves incapable.

Chris Johnson Success Rate Against the Colts

Jimmy — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

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Explanation:

Each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats

Stats after the jump.

vs IND / 12.6.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Chris Johnson	27	113	4.2	0	6	28	4.7	0

While he didn't get the number we wanted him to get to keep the pace for 2,150 or even 2,000, he did have one of his more successful games by this metric. Plus he put up good enough numbers that a huge game against the Rams puts him right back on pace.

No updates on Donald Brown, Robert Mathis

BigBlueShoe — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:52:20 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

about 1 month ago: Indianapolis Colts running back Donald Brown (31) runs with the ball during the second quarter of an NFL football game against the St. Louis Rams Sunday, Oct. 25, 2009, in St. Louis. The Colts won 42-6. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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No updates as yet on the status of Donald Brown after he missed last Sunday's game with the chest injury. For those keeping score, Brown has suffered chest and shoulder injuries this season, forcing him to miss three games. He currently stands at 263 yards and two TDs. For a first round drafted running back, those numbers are not good.

Yes, he is averaging 4.5 yards a carry, but the potential knock on Brown coming into the NFL was that he would not be durable in this league. So far, that knock is holding true.

You all know that I personally have no patience with rookie running backs. They are either good right out of the gate, or they are trash. Running back is the easiest position to play in this league, and right now Donald Brown is not showing me why he was worth taking in the first round. Meanwhile, players like Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks, Pat Chung, Eben Britton, Rey Maualuga, Phil Loadholt, and even Beanie Wells are making significant contributions for their respective teams as rookies.

All were drafted after Brown.

We also have no update as yet on the status of Robert Mathis. Bill Polian made it clear that the injury was to Mathis' quad, not something more severe:

"Robert had a quad strain [Sunday] and we don't quite know the extent of it yet. He had some tests Monday. It's not a knee, so there's no need to worry about that."

Dwight Freeney suffered a pretty nasty quad injury earlier this year after the Cardinals win, but came back the very next week to play against the Seahawks. Will Mathis do the same? We shall see.