SB Nation - Minnesota Vikings

The Case for Brett Favre as 2009 NFL MVP

Gonzo — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 04:10:33 -0000

by Jerry Holt - AP

Will this man be tipping his hat to the folks that vote for the MVP award after this season is over? (AP Photo/Star Tribune,Jerry Holt)

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Yes, I know that we've only played ten games this season, and I know that this might come off as being a bit premature. And I know that this is going to be met with cries of my bias towards players on my favorite team and all that other fun stuff.

But if the 2009 NFL season were to end today, I find it hard to believe that anybody but Brett Favre would be named the NFL's Most Valuable Player. (I'll take "Things that I never thought would cross my keyboard" for $400, Alex.) After all the drama, the hand-wringing and the whole "will he or won't he" saga that played out over the weeks leading up to the season, it's possible that Favre is having the best season of his career in a season where he reached 40 years of age.

Thus far, all discussions of the MVP award have focused on three main names. . .Favre, Saints quarterback Drew Brees, and Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. Yes, Brees and Manning have been having great seasons thus far, obviously, and as of now both of their teams are still undefeated in 2009. But look at the numbers. There's no way that you can definitively say that either of those guys has been better than #4 through the first ten games of the year.

	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	QBR	Sacks	Fumbles (Lost)
Drew Brees	320	218	68.1	2,746	22	9	105.8	13	8 (4)
Brett Favre	310	216	69.7	2,482	21	3	112.1	21	1 (1)
Peyton Manning	388	271	69.8	3,171	21	9	102.7	8	2 (0)

Despite the slow start that Favre got off to, he has significantly picked up his game as the season has progressed. He has as many touchdown passes as Manning in 78 fewer attempts, and only one less than Brees in ten fewer attempts. His interception percentage thus far (less than 1%) is significantly better than that of Brees (2.8%) or Manning (2.3%). In addition, Favre has played ten games this season, and has played turnover-free ball in seven of those ten contests. Conversely, Brees has turned the ball over at least once in seven of the ten games New Orleans has played so far, as has Manning for Indianapolis. Obviously, since their teams are undefeated, they were able to overcome those turnovers and lead their teams to victory, but Favre's turnover total has been absolutely ridiculous thus far.

Even in the three years he was named NFL Most Valuable Player, Favre threw 13, 13, and 16 interceptions. This year, he's on pace to throw. . .five. The record for the fewest interceptions thrown by a QB that started all 16 games in a season is four by Steve DeBerg of the 1990 Kansas City Chiefs. I'm not sure if Favre can maintain the level he's currently at. . .after all, it could easily be argued that two of his three interceptions thus far came on passes that should have been caught (by Bernard Berrian against the 49ers and by Chester Taylor against Pittsburgh). . .but it's something to keep an eye on the rest of the way.

"But Favre has Adrian Peterson," the naysayers will tell you. My response to that objection is simply "so what?" Six other teams had the chance to draft Adrian Peterson. . .it's not Minnesota's fault that they figured out that, sometimes, the obvious decision really IS the best one. Besides, judging by the way teams have been defending the Vikings thus far in 2009, it appears as though they're still under the impression that the Vikings are starting Gus Frerotte at quarterback. Despite the fact that Favre has been tearing apart defenses this year, Viking opponents have still insisted on stacking the line of scrimmage instead of devoting men to coverage, because they're scared to death of the best running back in the NFL (as well they should be). The difference is that this year, Favre is taking advantage of those coverages and finding open targets all over the field. After the first eleven weeks of the season, the Vikings are the only team in the NFL with six different players with more than 25 receptions. . .Sidney Rice (50), Percy Harvin (36), Visanthe Shiancoe (33), Bernard Berrian (32), Chester Taylor (27), and Peterson (25).

(By the way, off the subject of Favre. . .how great is it that Peterson is averaging 100 yards rushing and more than one TD per game, and everyone seems to be asking "What's wrong with Peterson?" The kid has set the bar so high, it's damn near ridiculous.)

"Oh, but Favre has been so lucky this year," the naysayers will tell you. Sure, the pass to Greg Lewis against the Niners was something that Favre pulled completely out of his posterior, we know that. The only problem with this argument is that, over the course of a season, lots of teams get lucky along the way. . .look no further to a little more than a week ago, when Manning's Colts were the beneficiaries of one of the dumbest coaching decisions I've ever seen. That dumb decision gave them a chance to win. Back in Week 7, the Saints found themselves trailing the Dolphins by 21 points down in Miami. But Brees rallied his team in the second half and, even though his stats that game were pretty bad (three interceptions and a lost fumble), he led a bunch of scoring drives and led his team to victory. Heck, you could make the case that the Vikings' lone loss this year came as the result of bad luck (garbage tripping penalty on Jeff Dugan, screen pass bouncing off of Taylor's hands, and so forth).

Winning a championship in the NFL is like winning a big poker tournament. . .as anyone that's ever won a big poker tournament will tell you, you don't win without coming back from the dead a few times. The Vikings have done that this season, sure, but so have the Saints and the Colts, and they did it on the strength of the guys behind center.

"But Favre has all that talent around him," the naysayers will tell you. Seriously, are you going to tell me that the Saints and/or Colts are that devoid of talent compared to Minnesota? Of course not, because such an assertion would be ridiculous. Yes, the Vikings are a highly talented team, but this brings me to one of the things that Brees, Manning, and Favre all have in common. . .they make the people around them better. Before this year, nobody outside of Viking fans and South Carolina alumni knew who Sidney Rice was. Now, under Brett Favre, he's a household name. And remember all the junk about Percy Harvin when the Vikings drafted him, about how his hands weren't that great and that he couldn't run routes? Yeah. . .don't hear a whole lot of that any more, do you? Brees has played portions of his time in New Orleans without Marques Colston, without Reggie Bush, without Deuce McAlister, and with a spate of other injuries. For crying out loud, Manning is putting together the season he's currently having with two of his main targets being a couple of guys named Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon. Did YOU know who either of those guys were six or eight weeks ago? I won't lie to you. . .I didn't.

There are quarterbacks that elevate the game of those around them, and those that need to have their game elevated BY those around them. Favre, Brees, and Manning are examples of the former. . .we'll see a shining example of the latter when we the Vikings host the Bears on Sunday afternoon.

Obviously, Brees, Manning, and Favre are all having outstanding seasons this year. They quarterback three of the top teams in the league, and are all definitely going to be factors in the post-season. While the numbers are the same, there's one thing that, in my opinion, separates Favre from the other two quarterbacks in this debate.

Manning and Brees were supposed to be this good. Favre, on the other hand, was supposed to be done for. After all, even the most twitterpated of Favre lovers couldn't possibly have imagined him putting together a season like this, especially after missing all of camp and all the other things that the media massively overhyped going into the season. The reports of a "schism" in the locker room because of the Favre signing turned out to be a bunch of garbage, as #4 has been roundly embraced by his teammates and, by and large, by the Minnesota community. Sure, most people thought he was an improvement over Tarvaris Jackson. . .and I say that as a guy that still thinks Jackson has a future in this league. . .but there was nobody out there that could have predicted the heights that he could potentially take the Vikings to on the NFL stage.

Again, there are still six games left to be played in the 2009 NFL regular season, and this talk might be premature. But if you weigh everything and look at the league MVP race, I honestly thing Brett Favre is in line to win an unprecedented fourth trophy. Whether it's because of overall performance or the impact that they've had on their team, Favre is the MVP in either sense.

Whether you agree or disagree, it's certainly something that makes for a good debate at this point.

BREAKING NEWS: Texans Sign Brian Russell

Tim — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:07:52 -0000

Per the team site (with a tip o' the cap to Rivers McCown), your Houston Texans signed Brian Russell to replace the IRed Eugene Wilson:

Russell (6-2, 210), who was released by the Jacksonville Jaguars on Nov. 21, was an undrafted free agent out of San Diego State in 2001. He spent time with the Minnesota Vikings (2002-04), Cleveland Browns (2005-06) and Seattle Seahawks (2007-08) before playing nine games with Jacksonville this season. Russell recorded two defensive tackles and one special teams stop in the Jaguars' 31-24 victory over the Texans in Week 3 at Reliant Stadium.

If you haven't already, check out Kissing Suzy Kolber and do a search for "Brian Russell." Have a trash can at the ready.

Six-Pack of Hu-Dey: Bengals rookies, offensive line and beating the rest of the schedule

Kirkendall — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 16:41:04 -0000

Chase Coffman's debut is more than just about being a receiving tight end.
All things considered, this year's rookie class has been a solid group of contributors to this football team. Players like Michael Johnson, Morgan Trent and Bernard Scott have improved the team's depth as backup and role players while Rey Maualuga and Kevin Huber already have a handful of starts underneath their belts. However, one high profile player who's being demanded by fans, and questioned by the media, is growing in urgency after an inconsistent run of critical errors by the Bengals tight ends in the past month.

With the Browns and Lions coming up, it makes sense to throw Chase Coffman into the fold. We're not talking as starters. We're not really talking about guys that will play half of the offensive snaps. We've read that Coffman is still struggling with his blocking technique. And if Coffman isn't going to be playing the bulk of the offensive snaps, then he'd at least have to contribute on special teams. Marvin Lewis has already said that he has to do one or the other. Block. Contribute on special teams. While the demand for Coffman is justified, loud and unified, he's going to have to do more than just catch passes in this offense.

Could Andre Smith's debut be coming after Scott Kooistra was released?
The idea is that the team's offensive line has performed far better than expectations. And quite bluntly, Smith isn't needed right now. With Anthony Collins and Dennis Roland playing right tackle, they've managed to do their job well enough to give Smith time to grow at his own rate. They did the same thing with Carson Palmer in 2003.

Here's food for thought. The Bengals released Scott Kooistra on Tuesday. He was active on game day. This could mean that Smith makes his NFL debut against the Browns in jumbo formations as the third offensive tackle?

It's the offensive line's performance that deserves the award for best team turn-around in 2009.
One of the biggest concerns coming into this season is how well would the offensive line improve. Last year's offense averaged 4.0 yards-per-play and 3.6 yards-per-rush. Bengals quarterbacks were sacked, on average, 3.2 times per game. Many, including me, criticized the offensive line. The demand to draft an offensive tackle in the first round was answered with Andre Smith.

They also promoted Kyle Cook as the starting center while electing not to sign Eric Ghiaciuc (best offseason move). After starting the final six games last year, Anthony Collins and Nate Livings impressed the coaches enough to keep them on as starters -- ironically, they've both been demoted as the year went on by Dennis Roland and Evan Mathis respectively. Andrew Whitworth moved back to his natural position at left offensive tackle.

What's the result?

They've cut the sacks allowed per game by half (1.7). Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott are averaging 4.2 and 4.3 yards-per-rush respectively and the offense's overall yards-per-play improved by 1.2 yards.

I think the defense is a great argument for best turnaround by a unit, but we had already known that they were improving at the end of last season. We had no idea what to expect with the offensive line heading into the season.

If Cedric Benson is out against the Browns, Larry Johnson's role should be expanded.
Bernard Scott has proven that once he builds endurance as a feature back, he could have even more potential; especially if he builds his strength to run between the tackles. Brian Leonard can fight for that extra yard as well as any running back on this roster. But Larry Johnson should have an expanded role against the Browns.

I understand the points that he shouldn't even be on the team. The reality is, he's here and the team should have enough confidence in his knowledge of the playbook to give him more than the two carries for five yards he rushed for against the Raiders.

Without Benson, the Bengals don't have a workhorse. And between Johnson, Scott and Leonard, the Bengals could have a three-headed beast, all of whom have different abilities and fresh legs. The stretch run is appearing to shape up nicely for the Bengals rushing offense -- especially when Benson makes his return.

The Bengals can beat the Minnesota Vikings... but the San Diego Chargers?
First things first. The Bengals have to beat teams that they should beat. If they don't, then don't be surprised if they miss the playoffs after a 7-2 start. With that thought in mind, the Bengals could be assured four wins at least, with tough games in Minnesota and in San Diego. This alone would give them double-digit wins for the first time since 2005. Provided they don't do what they did against Oakland, the Lions, Browns, Chiefs and Jets are games that the Bengals should win.

And I think Cincinnati will be tough as nails against the Vikings or Chargers. We might play down to the competition this year (like the Browns or Raiders). But we also play up to the competition. I think the Bengals chances of beating the Vikings are very good. We're a tough rush defense that can pressure the quarterback with tremendous cover cornerbacks. Offensively, we can wear down any defense, provided we do it unpredictably.

And it's not like I put the Chargers on a pedestal that I don't think they'll beat them. But we know how the Bengals do in the state of California. So I'm going on a limb. Bengals beat Vikings, but struggle against the Chargers.

The Bengals and Shayne Graham should move on after this next season.
Let me preface this. Shayne Graham has been a great person for this community. His charity has raised a lot of money and "resources to under served children and other charitable initiatives. Our mission is to lend assistance to those in need and be an organization that makes a lasting impression, empower those who want to make a difference, and strengthen communities."

And for six straight seasons with the Bengals, Graham has converted at least 83.3% of his attempted field goals.

Until this year.

This year Graham is on pace to record a career-low 70.6% of his field goals. Has already more blocks in one season (3) than he did his entire career coming into the season (2). However, it hasn't been entirely his fault. Brad St. Louis was in large part the problem with Graham's lack of success, making terrible snaps that, at the very best, caused Graham to stutter on his approach to the football.

Regardless, Graham has missed a field goal in five of ten games this season, including a missed 37-yard attempt that would have given Cincinnati a 7-point lead with 5:41 left in the third quarter. Furthermore, after Robert Geathers recovered a fumble and returned it 38 yards, Graham did convert a 25-yard attempt. However, if the missed field goal was converted, that's a 10-point lead.

I think Graham has done a lot of great things for this city and this team. But after season, with Graham hitting the free agency market, I think the Bengals should say farewell.

Jackson, Boller and the Seahawks

VanRam — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 15:14:08 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Boller starts at QB for the Rams this week.

Browse more photos »

While you're waiting and wondering if Kyle Boller's play action bootleg can get the St. Louis Rams another win, there's some injury news we've got to talk about this morning.

Obviously, there's the Bulger situation. As much as we all were ready to see Bulger move on to other pursuits, the thought of Boller under center doesn't have anyone too excited. More on that later. What ought to concern Rams fans more than anything is Steven Jackson lower back.

The Rams have placed undue weight on SJ's shoulders this season, asking him to carry a mostly futile offense save for him. Jackson has a lower back sprain, something that injury guru Will Carroll says "could affect his workload." Seattle's no great shakes on defense without Tatupu, but they have been somewhat effective against starting running backs. The last rusher to gain more than 100 yards against the Seahawks was Frank Gore in week two. However, teams are running enough to set up their passing game, which has spelled certain doom for the Seahawks lately. Last week, the Vikings ran for a total of 157 yards on 37 carries, and the week before, the Cardinals ran for a total of 152 yards on 26 carries and scored two rushing touchdowns.

So maybe, they don't have to use Jackson excessively. Of course, if they don't, that puts more onus on Boller and the receivers. It's a favorable matchup for a passing game, but how favorable a matchup is it for the Rams passing game?

Personally, I don't think we lose anything with Boller in for the injured Bulger. Bulger has been too inconsistent - mostly he's played poorly - to be relied upon from week to week. Sure, he gives you the best chance to win, when he's on his game, but when was that going to be?

As for Boller, am I excited about him starting? No, but this is a rebuilding team without a clearly anointed QB of the future, who would otherwise step in this week and give us a glimpse of hope. Like I said above, the difference between having Boller or Bulger starting this year is negligible. The receiver picture should at least be a little more settle for Boller this time around. Danny Amendola has had some time in the system. Donnie Avery is playing much better than he was the last time Boller started, and Brandon Gibson could be a reliable possession guy for Boller. Then of course, there's Fells in the mix at TE. The offensive line is playing much better now too. Hopefully, the players sense the opportunity and play their best football, making life easier on the QB.

What has been working for the Rams on offense lately is opening the field with deeper passes, getting the ball to guys somewhere past five yards. Boller loses something in his accuracy the further he throws, but he's not completely incompetent in that department. Pat Shurmur will have to trust the guy a little more, fighting the urge to draw inward and be more conservative with the playcalling.

Vikings/Cardinals Moved to Sunday Night for Week 13

Gonzo — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 01:21:21 -0000

Well, the Vikings have officially had their schedule changed. Pro Football Talk first broke the story that has since been repeated in several FanPosts here on the site, and that's the story that the Week 13 matchup that will see the Beloved Purple travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals will be broadcast on Sunday night on NBC.

The original game that was scheduled was between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

When I did my post a couple of weeks ago about which Minnesota games could potentially be flexed, I cited this one as a game that definitely had some flex potential. And, apparently, the folks at NBC agreed. I'm guessing that that's largely because they couldn't a) find a compelling game involving an NFC East team (although Michael Vick's return to Atlanta is on the Week 13 docket as well) or b) find an excuse to give the Chicago Bears another well-deserved prime time appearance.

I'm guessing that this also means that the Week 14 matchup between the Vikings and the Cincinnati Bengals is no longer a flex candidate, since I don't think NBC would feature one of the same teams in consecutive weeks. Then again, with the Eagles and Giants set to square off on the peacock network that weekend, I wouldn't have expected that game to change anyway.

So, it appears our only other candidate for a flex game would be Week 17 against the Giants, and I still think there's a very good chance we get flexed OUT of our Week 15 matchup against the Panthers, unless Carolina engineers a turnaround in fairly short order.

Week 11 Statistical Matchup Review: 49ers @ Packers

Florida Danny — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 22:00:12 -0000

AUTHOR'S NOTE: I totally forgot to mention when I laid out the new schedule last week that I'll be posting a matchup review article every Tuesday. So, basically, my posting schedule will have you getting sick of me in no time. Just wanted to warn you.

Welcome to the first installment of my weekly matchup review articles in 2009. As I said last week, the format of these posts should be familiar to you if you were around last season. If not, the basic idea of this post is to look back at Sunday's (or Thursday's or Monday's) game, and see how the 49ers did in each of the key matchups I identified prior to the game.

Despite what some might think, I'm not an insider at Football Outsiders (FO), so I don't have access to the exact equation for DVOA or any of their other stats. Therefore, in my matchup review, I won't be saying, "Here's what DVOA said going into the game, and here's their actual DVOA for this matchup during the game." Instead, I simply look back at the play-by-play, aggregate the raw numbers for each matchup, consider the specific game situations that might have affected the numbers, and offer a quasi-objective evaluation of the Niners' performance in the matchups.

So, with the aims and methods revealed, it's time to review the matchups.

TEAM MATCHUP # 2: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE ON 3RD AND LONG

For the moment, I'm going to ignore Team Matchup #1 (i.e., SF OFF's in-season trend vs. GB DEF's in-season trend) because I'll actually be able to give you the DVOA stats on that one once FO posts them this afternoon. So instead, I'll begin with Team Matchup #2. As you'll recall (See here if you don't), my bottom line about Team Matchup #2 was that the 49ers' OFF needed to perform a lot better than expected on 3rd & long because (a) they've sucked at it this season, and (b) GB's DEF has been awesome at it. Specifically, GB's DEF had a mind-blowing 119.3% DVOA advantage going into the game. So how did the Niners do? Based on the play-by-play, below is a table showing the game time, field position, play, and result of every 3rd & long the 49ers' OFF faced on Sunday (successful plays are in bold):

Distance	Yardline	Quarter	Time Left	Score	Type of Play	Direction	Play	Yards
7	SF 19	1	1:43	SF 3 - GB 6	Pass	NA	Smith sacked	-2
7	SF 23	2	11:25	SF 3 - GB 6	Pass	Short Right	Incomplete to Bruce	0
19	SF11	2	8:08	SF 3 - GB 13	Pass	Short Right	Complete to Crabtree	6
9	SF 20	2	2:00	SF 3 - GB 20	Pass	Short Left	Complete to Davis	4
10	GB 36	3	12:12	SF 3 - GB 23	Pass	Short Left	Complete to Hill	8
20	GB 38	3	7:35	SF 3 - GB 23	Pass	Deep Left	Complete to Crabtree	38TD
8	SF 14	3	2:29	SF 10 - GB 23	Pass	Short Right	Incomplete to Davis	0
10	GB 24	4	10:42	SF 10 - GB 30	Pass	Deep Middle	Complete to Davis	24TD

After the jump, I'll discuss why this table means one of two people needs a stern talking-to, and I'll review the rest of the matchups...

Just to remind you, a 3rd-down play is only considered successful if it achieves a 1st down. For this reason, 3rd & long plays tend to be particularly unsuccessful, so the 49ers' 25% success rate isn't actually all that bad. And given that they scored 2 TDs on 3rd & long, I'd say their performance in this matchup was, on the surface, better than expected. However, there are two below-the-suface patterns in the table that help uncover why their success in this matchup didn't end up helping the 49ers actually win the game.

First, you'll notice that both successful plays came in the 2nd half while losing by 20 points. As Mike Singletary hinted at during his Monday press conference, and contrary to Brian "I can't bring myself to say Michael Crabtree didn't drop it, no matter what the video evidence shows" Billick's assertion during the game, it's simply easier to have success on OFF while on the wrong side of a 2nd-half blowout than it is otherwise. Maybe, as Billick pointed out, GB wasn't playing a true prevent DEF at the time, but, I'm sorry, only the very best teams/players maintain high motivation/focus when they have that big of a lead that late in the game (See 2007 Week 8: Patriots 52, Redskins 7). Packer coaches may not have been calling passive defensive formations, but that doesn't mean Packer players weren't playing passive defense. So, given the score and game time when the 2 TDs occurred, I have to discount their impact on the overall evaluation. Therefore, the Niner OFF's grade on 3rd & long goes from something like a C to a D; still better than expected, but not a lot better. And, as I said in the preview, they needed to play a lot better than expected on 3rd & long in order to have a good chance of winning the game.

The second devil in the details is something of a pet peeve for me. Namely, their only 2 successful plays coincided with the only 2 times Alex Smith actually threw a 3rd & long pass beyond the first down marker: all 6 failures were to "short" routes, whereas the 2 successes were to "deep" routes. Now, I'm not going to affix 100% of the blame on Jimmy Raye for this. He could easily be calling 3rd & long plays with medium-to-deep primary receivers, only to have Smith - for whatever reason - check down to shorter secondary receivers when actually executing the play. Only people with access to the play calls, a candid Alex Smith, and the coach's game film -- people otherwise known as members of the 49ers roster and coaching staff - would know exactly on whom the blame lays. Nevertheless, blaming people isn't going to change anything. What matters most is that the 2009 49ers OFF is currently burdened with either (a) an offensive coordinator who has a tendency to call for short routes on 3rd & long, or (b) a QB who has a tendency to throw short passes on 3rd & long. So either one, or both, have to be dealt with going forward. Otherwise, we'll be seeing a lot more of this ineptitude on 3rd & long.

TEAM MATCHUP # 3: SF OFFENSE VS. GB DEFENSE IN THE FIRST QUARTER

Only two words necessary here: Nailed it! OK, one self-aggrandizing statement from me isn't fair to you, so I'll actually go to the trouble of discussing something that honestly requires no more discussion than those two words.

By now, you probably already know the overall 1st quarter stats: 54 rushing yards, 0 passing yards, 1 sack allowed for -2 yards. Here are some more advanced stats for you:

6.5 yards per play including Frank Gore's 42-yard run, 1.7 yards per play omitting Gore's run
2 successful plays from scrimmage, 6 unsuccessful plays
Time of possession: 3 minutes, 37 seconds
Smith's QB rating for the 1st quarter: 39.6

All in all, that's not playing OFF in a way that overcomes your matchup disadvantage. Yeah, you can say that the score was only 6-3 Packers at the end of the 1st quarter, and that Gore's run should mean more than what I'm allowing, but neither of these things overshadows the clear slow-starting trend for the Niner OFF. Neither can overshadow the fact that the 49ers are averaging only 3.6 points per game in the 1st quarter, and have scored 0 points in the 1st quarter - that would be 4 times - more often than they've scored 7 or more - that would be 3 times.

I've said it before and I'll say it until I'm six feet under. Good teams regularly take an early lead on their opponents, and early leads on the road are huge. Of course, you might say, "Well, it's not like the Niners aren't trying to score in the 1st quarter." On the contrary, I'd actually say they are, in fact, not trying as hard as they should be to score in the 1st quarter. Don't believe me? Here is the play selection for the 1st quarter against GB: pass short right, run up the middle, run up the middle, end around, run up the middle, run up the middle, pass short right, pass play but sacked.

Here's the problem, fellow Niner fans. Our beloved team seems to have a game strategy that's in diametric opposition to game theory, statistical research, and Bill Walsh, all of which suggest that passing the ball is more successful than running the ball, and therefore that teams should pass the ball early to get a lead, but then run the ball late to preserve the lead. Want a perfect example of this utterly-obvious, yet often-ignored winning strategy? Look no further than Sunday's opponent.

The Packers threw the ball on 2 of their first 3 plays, and on 10 of their first 17 plays in the 1st quarter; a slight skew towards passing the ball resulted in a 3-point lead at the end of the 1st. Did they start running it to preserve the lead at that point? Quite the opposite: a Patriots-esque 24 of GB's 26 plays from scrimmage in the 2nd quarter were passes, with the 24 passes coming from one 14-consecutive-passes stretch and another 10-consecutive-passes stretch to end the half. What happened? A 3-point lead ballooned to a 20-point lead in a matter of 15 minutes.

So, to recap, 34 of GB's 45 plays in the 1st half were passes (they had 2 running plays to finish the 1st quarter that I didn't mention above), and they ended up with a 20-point lead going into the locker room. Meanwhile, throughout the 2nd quarter, the Niners continued to run up the middle and throw short passes, which led to a 20-point halftime deficit. Hopefully, you get the idea: pass early to take a lead.

Now for the endgame. In the 3rd quarter, 6 of GB's 14 plays were runs; not run-heavy, but definitely less pass-heavy than their 1st half imbalance. And in the 4th quarter, low and behold 9 of the Packers' 15 non-kneel-down plays were runs. Putting these together, GB's play selection during the 2nd half was 52% run, as compared to their 1st-half play selection, which was 76% pass.

I use the Packers as an example, not to distort general evidence by citing an exceptional anecdote, but rather because the anecdote is fresh in our memories and summarily fits the general evidence. The fact of the matter is that, as long as the 49ers come out running the ball up the middle and throwing short passes in the 1st half, they're not going to build the kind of early lead that a running back like Gore and a DEF like theirs are perfectly suited to preserve. Furthermore, as the Packers example shows, a 3-point lead in the 1st quarter does not represent grounds to shift into lead-preserving, run-baby-run mode. Look no further than to their losses against the Vikings, Titans, and Colts to see how much a slim first-half lead is not a lead at all.

My point here is that, rather than starting each game with a series of up-the-middle runs and short passes, the 49ers need to instead pass the ball frequently during the first half, and continue to pass - preferably down the field - until they've built a comfortable lead. Then, holding a comfortable lead in the 2nd half, that's when Gore should become the focal point of the offense. Unfortunately, Jimmy Raye, and I suppose Mike Singletary, seem to think winning means doing the opposite. Unlike the 49ers' problems on 3rd & long, I do blame Raye/Singletary 100% for this one because they're the ones that put in the game plan and author the 15-play script. I'm sorry, but, when the script isn't working, it's time to start editing on the fly. A screenplay with a lot of early action, climaxing in a massive butt-kicking, and ending with an uneventful dénouement is what the studio execs are looking for.

TEAM MATCHUP # 4: SF OFFENSIVE LINE VS. GB DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 ON UP-THE-MIDDLE RUNS

In detailing this disadvantage for the 49ers' OL in their matchup with the Packers' defensive front 7, I cited each unit's Stuffed Rate and Up-The-Middle ALY. So how did the Niners' OL fare on Sunday in these two areas?

Well, in terms of having their runs stopped for zero or negative yardage, SF's OL had 2 such plays on 8 RB carries, for a Stuffed Rate of 25%, which nailed the expected rate right on the nose (Aside: Where's the dude who says stats can't predict anything?). Therefore, on this stat, we'd have to say the OL didn't overcome its disadvantage.

With respect to C/G ALY, the Niners' OL contributed 13 unadjusted line yards on 5 RB carries, good for a magical average of 2.6 unadjusted line yards per carry. Of course, they were going against the 8th-best defensive front 7 in the NFL, so we can kind of adjust this upward in our minds to something around 3.0 to 3.5. Oh wait, that hits the expected number on the nose again (Aside: C'mon, show yourself Mr. Stats Naysayer!). So again, the OL didn't overcome it's disadvantage.

All in all, my overall view on this matchup is that the 49ers' OL didn't overperform they way that they needed to going into the game, but the game played out in such a manner that they really didn't need to overperform in the first place. Indeed, when a team only has 8 RB carries in a game, it's kind of obvious that the run-blocking performance of their OL was not a major factor in the result of that game.

TEAM MATCHUP # 5: SF DEFENSIVE FRONT 7 VS. GB OFFENSIVE LINE ON LEFT-SIDE RUNS

In the preview post, my bottom line for this matchup was that the 49ers had a general advantage when GB runs to the left side of their formation, but especially when they run to the outside left (GB OL ALY = 2.87 yards per RB carry; SF defensive front 7 ALY = 2.71 yards per carry).

In Sunday's game, the defensive front 7's Unadjusted ALY on left-side runs was 2.62 yards overall, and their Unadjusted ALY on GB runs to the outside left was 2.43 yards per RB carry. Given that I'm not privy to FO's opponent adjustments, we just have to wing it here, and say that we probably need to adjust these raw numbers upward just a little because the Packers' OL was near the bottom of the league on such runs going into the game. Doing so leads to the conclusion that the Niners', once again, played about as well as expected in the left-end/left-side run-stopping matchup.

Unfortunately, like the 3rd & long matchup, left-end run-stopping on Sunday was another case of the Niners' devil being in the details. Specifically, GB's two longest RB carries during the game were both on runs to the outside left, and they both came at the most inopportune times. The first was a 26-yard carry by Ryan Grant on his first outside-left run of the game, and the second was a back-breaking 21-yard Grant carry with 2:51 left in the game, which allowed GB to salt away the game for all intents and purposes. So basically, the Niners' defensive front 7 took a favorable matchup, and turned it into a non-trivial contributor to the loss. On this week of Thanksgiving, a good analogy for the Niners performance in this matchup is screwing up the turkey. After 57 minutes in the oven, the 49ers had a beautiful, juicy bird, but those last 3 minutes of cooking time ended up turning it into bad eats, and having their fans reaching for the sweet potato casserole.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 1: VERNON DAVIS VS. GB PASS DEF

Going into the game, I wanted to see whether the Niners' OFF would be able to "impose its will" in the passing game by getting the ball to Vernon Davis despite GB's prowess when it comes to defending TEs. Of course, just looking at the stat line (12 targets, 9 yards per target, 18 yards per catch, 3 FDs, 1 TD), you'd have to say VD exceeded expectations overall. However, going inside the numbers, you realize that SF's utilization of VD did not resemble "imposing its will" in the slightest. That's because 11 of VD's 12 targets came during the 2nd half. Furthermore, VD did not have a pass thrown his way until there were 2 minutes left in the 1st half. In other words, SF's OFF basically ignored VD for the first 28 minutes of game time.

I'm not going to beat the proverbial dead horse here, but this is not winning football. Not even attempting to get the ball to a player who's #3 among TEs in targets for nearly the entire first half is an epic fail from a strategic standpoint; an epic fail that compounds the OFF's previously described epic fail with respect to 1st-half passing.

The sickening thing is that, once they started throwing the ball to VD in the 2nd half, he was incredibly productive. To me, that's the most frustrating part of watching this OFF. It's like they stubbornly implement their short pass and up-the-middle run game plan until they're (un)comfortably behind in the game, then the light comes on and they play efficient NFL OFF, only to revert back to their Hostlerian game plan to start the following game. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Despite what Mike "aw shucks, I don't know what you're talking about" Singletary might be saying during his Monday press conferences, I have to believe that the coaching staff notices this pattern. It goes without saying that they know more about football than I (or any other sentient Niner fan) do. So the question that needs to be asked is not, "Mike, why don't you use the spread more?" Rather, it's, "Mike, why do you play OFF backwards?" or, "Mike, why does Jimmy Raye only call an NFL-caliber offense when the score forces him to?" I hate to break the news to Mike, but it's not only the players who don't show up for all 60 minutes of the game; it's also the aptly named "offensive" coaching staff. Matt Barrows seems to agree with me on this point.

PLAYER MATCHUP # 2: DONALD DRIVER VS. SF PASS DEF

I said going into the game that SF's pass DEF needed to either prevent Driver's catches from hurting them in crucial situations or prevent him from catching the ball in the first place. His stat line for the game (8 targets, 5 yards per target, 8 yards per catch, 2 FDs, 0 TDs) suggests they succeeded in limiting the damage. What makes their performance against Driver even better was that none of his targets came on 3rd down or in the red zone. In other words, they played a perfect game when it came to preventing Driver from touching the ball in crucial situations.

Unfortunately, stopping Driver doesn't mean much when you decide not to cover his counterpart, Greg Jennings, in general, but specifically in crucial situations. Overall, Jennings had 7 targets, for 18 yards per target, 25.2 yards per catch, 3 FDs, and 1 TD. That's pretty bad pass DEF from the Niners against an opponent's #1 WR. However, what's worse is that 4 of Jennings' 7 targets came on 3rd down, with these targets resulting in 3 catches for 3 FDs. So, in the end, their perfect performance against Driver was offset by their nearly (im)perfect performance against Jennings.

BOTTOM LINE

Based on their performance during Sunday's game, here are the main matchup-related reasons why the 49ers lost to the Packers:

The OFF didn't overcome their disadvantage on 3rd & long because they didn't actually throw the ball beyond the 1st-down marker until the game was basically out of reach.
Their OFF once again came out of the locker room with a Hostlerian play-calling philosophy during the 1st quarter.
When it actually mattered, the defensive front 7 failed to exploit their advantage on GB runs to the outside left.
The OFF didn't throw the ball to their high-target TE during the first 28 minutes of the game.
Their pass DEF offset a highly efficient performance against Driver with a highly inefficient performance against Jennings.

Coming up tomorrow, an evaluation of how the Niners played against the Packers according to Singletary's Formula for Success.

*DVOA and ALY statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

Which of the following matchup performances was the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT reason for the 49ers' loss to the Packers on Sunday?

A World Turned Upside Down: Week 11 in the NFL

urnext — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:00:16 -0000

When General Cornwallis and the British army surrendered to General Washington and the Continental army to end the Revolutionary war, the British played the song, "A World Turned Upside Down". After all, that's how the world seemed to them. How else could they explain how the rag tag continental army could defeat the greatest army in the world at that time? On Sunday, several teams probably felt the same way. How could the Bengals lose to the Raiders? How could the Steelers lose to the Chiefs? How could the Broncos go from a 3 1/2 game lead, to a 1 game deficit in only 4 weeks? And how could the Browns blow a 21 point lead and lose to the Lions? OK, maybe not the last one. This is the Browns we're talking about after all. But how did the Browns blow a 21 point lead against one of the worst teams in the NFL?

Browns 37, Lions 38

No one outside of Cleveland and Detroit had any interest in this game going into Sunday, but without a doubt, this was the best game of the week. The much maligned Browns offense finally got on track in this game, scoring more points in the first quarter (24) than they had scored in an entire game (20) on the season. And they had to feel pretty good about their chances of getting their second win with an early 24-3 lead. But Matthew Stafford and the Lions fought back. Stafford completed 26 of 43 passes for 422 yards and become the youngest QB ever to throw 5 TD's in one game. But the most important pass thrown by Stafford didn't even show up on the stat sheet. Trailing 37-31 with only seconds left in the game, Stafford threw a "Hail Mary" from mid field that landed harmlessly in the endzone. Unfortunately for the Browns, a pass interference penalty was called on Hank Poteat, so the Lions got one free untimed play from the 1 yard line. Stafford was hit hard on the "Hail Mary" throw and wasn't able to come out for the play, so the Lions sent out a cold Daunte Culpepper. Luckily, Brown's coach Eric Mangini called a time out, allowing Stafford time to get fixed up and back out on to the field. Stafford threw his 5th TD and the Lions won. Lions coach Jim Schwartz said afterwards, "It's a game that you either win or you lose." That's deep, Captain Obvious. Ever thought of putting that on a bumper sticker?

Dolphins 24, Panthers 17

Rickey "The Pineapple Express" Williams may have actually benefited from the time he spent out of the NFL. While most RB's start losing a step as they get older because of all the pounding they take, Williams seems to be going stronger than ever. With Ronnie Brown done for the season, the Dolphins turned to Williams, and he was more than ready to step up. Williams rushed for 119 yards and scored 3 TD's as the Dolphins held off the Panthers to get back into the playoff picture. Of course, the Panthers coach John Fox helped the Dolphins by turning away from their powerful running game and letting Jake Delhomme throw the ball 42 times. Delhomme may have avoided throwing an interception in the last 3 games, but if you let him throw it 42 times, I guarantee he'll find a way to lose. Delhomme completed only 19 of his 42 passes as well as throwing his 14 interception on the season early in the 3rd while in the redzone. The Panthers did cut the lead down to 17-14 late in the 4th, but a 46 yard TD run by Williams put the nail in the coffin. I would like to thank Coach Fox. I was starting to think the 49ers pick might fall out of the top 10. I feel a lot better now.

Redskins 6, Cowboys 7

Last week the Cowboys were shutout until the 4th quarter and ended up losing to the Packers 7-17. Once again the Cowboys offense did the same thing, being shutout for 3 quarters and only managing 7 points for the game. Luckily for them, they were playing the offensively challenged Redskins, so this time they came out on top 7-6. Part of the Cowboys ineffectiveness was because of an injury suffered by Tony Romo while making a tackle in the first quarter. Romo completed only 8 of his passes before finally getting on track, completing 7 passes on the final drive with the game on the line. It also helped that Shaun Suisham missed 2 FG's for the Redskins. Jason Campbell, who completed 24 of 37 passes for 256 yards said, "Other than a couple of plays, we pretty much beat them." For those who are wondering, Washington had 324 yards of total offense, Dallas had 304. Washington had 58 offensive plays, Dallas had 61. And Washington had the ball for 28:34 while Dallas had it for 31:26. Oh ya Campbell, you sure dominated them.

Steelers 24, Chiefs 27

Just how bad are things going for the Steelers right now? Well not only were the defending Super Bowl champions defeated by the lowly Chiefs, but it was Mr Irrelevant who finished them off. The last player chosen in last year's draft, Ryan "Don't call me a" Succop, kicked the game winning FG for the Chiefs, who now have won back to back games. The Steelers might have had an inkling they were in trouble this week when Jamaal Charles of the Chiefs returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a TD. It was the 4th kick return for a TD in 5 games against the Steelers and an NFL record 8th straight game the Steelers have given up a return of any kind for a TD. Ben Roethlisberger played well, throwing for 398 yards and 3 TD's, but he had to leave late in the game because of a concussion. On the other side of the ball, Matt Cassel played horribly in the first half, completing only 4 passes for 35 yards before doing a 180 in the second half and throwing for 213 yards. The win was the Chiefs first home win of the season. Not that you could tell it was a home game for the Chiefs since half the fans in the stadium were waiving terrible towels. By the way, what makes the towels so terrible? Is it the color?

Seahawks 9, Vikings 35

Brett Favre is like the Energizer Bunny. He just keeps going, and going, and going. And like the Energizer Bunny it's starting to get really annoying, but for completely different reasons. Don't misunderstand me. I'm sure Brett is a great guy. I just don't want to hear about him any more. Jim Mora said, "I saw Brett after the game and said, 'Would you retire please,'". My thoughts exactly. In the game Favre was almost perfect completing 22 of 25 passes for 213 yards and 4 TD's. The Viking fans even started chanting "MVP, MVP, MVP". Will the nightmare ever end? Matt Hasselbeck also played well, completing 19 of 26 passes for 231 yards. The problem for the Seahawks was that they only got 4 yards on the ground. That's not a typo. That's 4 total rushing yards for the entire game. Ouch! Hasselbeck said afterwards, "When they put Tarvaris Jackson in in the fourth quarter, it's almost embarrassing to be down by that much, when they're pulling their guys. It's just hard being in this situation right now. We're not used to it." Don't worry Matt. There's still 6 more games left in the season. I'm sure you'll get used to it before the season's over.

Falcons 31, Giants 34

For everyone who's competing in the prediction game here at Niners Nation, who've decided to stop picking the Giants after their 4 game losing streak, I'll just say, "Wah, wah, wahhhhh!" The Giants went an incredible 42 days without a win before sneaking by the Falcons. Of course, they almost blew it. With a 31-17 4th quarter lead, it looked like the Giants would cruise to victory, but Matt Ryan (26 of 46 for 268 yards) wouldn't give up. Ryan threw a TD pass to Eric Weems with 6:01 to play and a TD pass to Tony Gonzalez with 28 seconds left to tie the game. Luckily for the Giants, the NFL has the stupidest OT system of any major sports league. The Giants won the coin toss and instantly were 2 to 1 favorites to win the game. Eli Manning, who had a career high 384 yards passing and 3 TD's, drove the Giants into FG range and Lawrence Tynes put it in from 36 yards for the win. Afterwards, Ryan said, "We had a lot of great contributions and great efforts from a lot of guys in the second half to come back from 14 down. But with that said, there are no moral victories." You're preaching to the choir, brother.

Saints 38, Buccaneers 7

The Saints are now 10-0 for the first time in franchise history and have the Patriots coming to town next week. Of all the teams remaining on the Saints schedule, only the Patriots and Cowboys have winning records. Ramp up the hype machine! The Buccaneers actually had the early lead as rookie QB Josh Freeman (17 of 33 for 126 yards and 3 interceptions) drove them 95 yards down field for a 7-0 lead. But it was all Saints after that. The Bucs were actually trailing by only 3 just before the half, but some poor clock management allowed the Saints to get the ball back, and they quickly scored to take a 17-7 half time lead. Drew Brees was only average, completing 19 of 29 for 187 yards but the RB tandem of Pierre Thomas and Mike Bell combined to carry the ball 24 times for 167 yards and 2 TD's. Saint's coach Sean Payton said in a post game interview, "I like where we're at." Really!? I never would have guessed that.

Bills 15, Jaguars 18

The Jaguars won again on Sunday, improving to 6-4 and staying right in the thick of the playoff hunt, and once again no one in Jacksonville saw it. Unless something drastic happens, the Jaguars will be the only team in the NFL to have all 8 of their home games blacked out because they don't sell out their stadium. They even have a winning record. Then again, maybe the good citizens of Jacksonville are thinking the same thing I'm thinking. The Jaguars seem like a weak 6-4 team. How else do you explain that they barely beat a Bill's team that just fired their head coach and can't decide who they want starting at the QB position. ~~Mike~~ Ryan Fitzpatrick got the nod over Stanford alum Trent Edwards, but the end results were the same. The Bills hung around into the 4th quarter only to see the other team make the plays when it counted. The Jaguars David Garrard (21 of 30 for 215 yards) had only 3 game winning drives in 58 games before orchestrating game winning drives in back to back games. Trailing 15-12, Garrard threw a TD pass to Mike Sims-Walker with only 56 seconds remaining to take the lead. For their part, the Bills have been outscored 109-40 in the 4th quarter during the season. TO did have his best game in a Bill's uniform, catching 9 passes for 197 yards and 1 TD, but it wasn't enough to keep him from losing his jersey for the second straight game. Last week, the Titan's Chris Johnson got TO's jersey. This week it was the Jaguar's Sims-Walker who was the lucky recipient. Only 6 more jerseys to give away TO.

Bengals 17, Raiders 20

Raiders Special Teams player, Marquis Cooper, died in a tragic boating accident in the off season and the Raiders decided to dedicate this game to his memory. Fittingly, it was a special teams blunder that lost the Bengals the game. Early on it looked like it was going to be business as usual with the Bengals going out to an early 14-0 lead. But Bruce Gradkowski, who was starting his first game of the season, got the Raiders offense on track and cut the lead to 14-10 in the 3rd. With just under 2 minutes left, Gradkowski (17 of 34 for 183 yards and 2 TD's) drove the Raiders down the field and scored a game tying TD with only 33 seconds left in the game. The Bengals fumbled the ensuing kickoff and Janikowski kicked the game winner. Sam Williams said after, "He (Cooper) caused the fumble. That was unbelievable." Now I know it was an emotional win and I don't mean to make fun of peoples beliefs. But I watched the fumble several times and it looked like Brandon Myers forced the fumble.

Jets 14, Patriots 31

A lot was made of Bill Belichick's 4th and 2 call last week. Plenty of people, including myself, criticized the call. But others defended it. They used statistics taken out of context. I saw lots of comments by people who emphatically believed it was the right call. The problem is that the right call is the one that helps teams win games. If people want to say they liked the call and they hope he makes the same call again, that's fine. But to say it was the right call is ludicrous. It would be like me defending my choice to not sell my home until after the home market bubble burst. I can pull out charts and graphs and regressions and say all the stats indicated the home market would continue to go up so holding on to the home was the right call, but the bubble did burst and I lost the money. The right call is the one that improves your chances of winning. The wrong call decreases them. If the Patriots got the 1st down then it would have been the right call. But they didn't. The Patriots would have been better off if they had punted it. No one can argue with that. That means it was the wrong call. Oh ya, the Patriots also beat the Jets 31-14. Tom Brady completed 28 of 41 passes for 310 yards and Wes Welker caught 15 of those passes for 192 yards.

Eagles 24, Bears 20

Will the real Eagles please stand up. One week they look like they couldn't beat a powder puff team and lose to the Raiders. Then in the next week they look like they could beat anyone in the NFL as they destroy the Giants. In games decided by 10 or more points, the Eagles are 5-1. In games decided by 8 or less, they're 0-3. That is, they were 0-3 before sneaking by the Bears. Of course it helped that the Bears offense had forgotten how to score a TD. After 6 FG's and 2 redzone interceptions over their last 6 quarters, the Bears finally scored a TD to take a 20-17 lead. With 11 minutes left in the game it looked like they would extend that lead, but the Eagles blocked the FG attempt and Donovan McNabb drove them 62 yards for the go ahead TD with 5 minutes to play. Jay Cutler had two chances to retake the lead but his final throw ended with his league leading 18th interception. I thought Cutler was supposed to take the Bears to the next level. I wonder how many fans that were once excited about the Cutler trade, wish they had Kyle Orton and their three 1st round draft picks back?

Colts 17, Ravens 15

Until the Colts lose, I'm not going to bet against them. There have been several games when I thought the Colts win streak (now at 19 straight) would come to an end, but somehow the Colts keep pulling it out in the end. Once again on Sunday the Colts came out on the good side of a back and forth game. What helped the Colts the most was that the Ravens, just like the Bears, couldn't get into the endzone. Seven times in the game the Ravens drove to the Colt's 28 yard line or closer, including a 1st and goal from the 1, and all they got were 5 FG's. That might work against the Browns, but it's going to take more than that to get past the Colts. What had to hurt the most for the Ravens was watching their ex kicker, Matt Stover, kick the game winning FG the week after they cut their own PK for ineffectiveness. Billy Cundiff did kick 5 FG'sin his first game withthe Ravens, but it was his 1 miss that was the difference in the game. But the weirdest part of the game was when Ed Reed was fielding a punt with only 17 seconds left. Instead of holding onto the ball to give their offense one last chance, he pitched to the side where no one was actually standing. Maybe he saw something gross on the ball and he didn't want to hold it.

Cardinals 21, Rams 13

We got a brief glimpse at what life without Kurt Warner will be like for the Cardinals and it had to put a smile on the face of every 49er fan. Leading 21-3, Warner didn't play in the second half because of concussion like symptoms. It was only a precaution but why take a risk with a big lead against the Rams? Well the Rams fought back and the Cardinals did nothing with Matt Leinart leading the way. Just so you can get an idea, Warner was 15 of 19 for 203 yards and 2 TD's, while Leinart was 10 of 14 for only 74 yards and 0 TD's. Steven Jackson lead the way for the Rams with 116 yards and 1 TD and reached 1,000 yards rushing on the season, becoming the first Ram ever to run for 1,000 yards in 5 straight seasons. The Rams even had a chance to tie it late in the game. Down by 8 the Rams had a 4th and 4 from the Cardinals 7 yard line. Marc Bulger threw to Donnie Avery in the endzone but their was a lot of jockeying for position and it was incomplete. Both Avery and Bulger were visibly upset when they didn't get the pass interference penalty. Bulger said later, "We'll just go with the ref's call and hopefully next time it'll go our way." Rumor has it that Bulger found the official later and offered him a $1 bribe.

Chargers 32, Broncos 3

Seven weeks into the season everything was great in Denver. They were off to a 6-0 start with a 3 1/2 game lead in the division and all the controversy surrounding Cutler was in the past. Things sure can change in a hurry. Chris Simms got his first start since almost dying because of a spleen injury and he didn't last long. I actually feel bad for Simms. His dad is a Super Bowl winning QB and he's getting pulled for a QB playing on 1 leg. The Broncos did have a good drive early on, but a costly goal line fumble ended that. But we all knew the offense would struggle with Simms. What's more surprising is how the defense was pushed around by the Chargers. Phillip Rivers completed 17 of 22 passes for a season low 145 yards but the Broncos never came close to sacking him. He said afterwards, "I was touched one time that I remember." And he didn't have to throw much since the Chargers rushed for 203 yards even though they came into the game with one of the NFL's worst rushing attacks. So much for the magic being worked by that new defensive coordinator of theirs. What was his name again? I guess it doesn't matter. I'll think of it eventually.

49ers 24, Packers 30

SHAUN HILL MADE MIKE SINGLETARY! WHY DID HE FORGET IT? I CAN'T EVEN BUY HIS JERSEY. WHY DID THE 49ERS GET RID OF ALLEN ROSSUM? IT'S SO STUPID. HE WAS THE GREATEST RETURN MAN EVER. WORST OF ALL, THEY GOT RID OF KORY SHEETS. HE WAS OUR FUTURE. HE WOULD HAVE RAN SO FAST AND NO ONE WOULD EVER CATCH HIM. I DON'T THINK HE EVER GOT TACKLED. WHY ARE THEY TOO STUPID TO SEE THIS? WE'LL NEVER GET A WINNING TEAM UNTIL WE STOP SUPPORTING THIS LOSING ONE. FIRE EVERYONE. I DEMAND A WINNER! WE MUST ALL SHOUT IN ALL CAPS UNTIL THE 49ERS STOP MAKING STUPID PERSONNEL DECISIONS. That one was for you KSWOF.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Minnesota Vikings "Flexed" to Prime Time

Andrew602 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:41:50 -0000

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The Arizona Cardinals December 6th match-up with the Minnesota Vikings has been "flexed" to the Sunday night game on NBC, meaning the Cardinals will play their third prime time game of the season. The original game slotted for SNF was a game between the Patriots and Dolphins but with the Cards and Vikings leading their respective divisions and the draw of a Brett Favre vs. Kurt Warner duel, this game was a more intriguing option. The Cardinals are 1-1 in primetime games this season with a loss coming at the hands of Peyton Manning and the Colts but they exacted some revenge on the Manning family by beating Eli's Giants several weeks later.

The Cardinals are also scheduled for a Monday night tilt against the 49ers the following week so for the first time in franchise history, the Cardinals will play back to back nationally televised games.

Tampa-2 is returning to Tampa Bay: Jim Bates relieved of defensive coordinator duties

BigBlueShoe — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 12:42:31 -0000

More photos » by Steve Cannon - AP

2 months ago: FILE -- This is an Aug. 22, 2009, file photo showing Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Raheem Morris talking on the head phones at a NFL preseason football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, in Jacksonville, Fla.(P Photo/Steve Cannon, File)

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Tampa Bay is returning to the Tampa-2 after head coach Raheem Morris relieved Jim Bates of his defensive coordinator duties.

One of the most puzzling off-season moves this year was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers junking the defensive system that is named after them in favor of a tired, old, stale defensive philosophy championed by former Dolphins, Packers, and Broncos defensive coordinator Jim Bates.

The famed Tampa-2 defense was made a household name in Tampa Bay in the late-1990s by Tony Dungy. He took the defensive philosophy to Indianapolis while Dungy's longtime coordinator, Monte Kiffin, continued the Tampa-2 tradition in Tampa Bay. Other Dungy proteges like Lovie Smith, Herm Edwards, Leslie Frazier, Mike Tomlin, and Ron Marinelli also took the concepts of Tampa-2 with them to places where they coached.

After the 2008 season, Monte Kiffin left Tampa Bay to coach with his son at the University of Tennessee. The Bucs ownership soon after fired head coach Jon Gruden, and replaced him with a young assistant: Raheem Morris. Morris had been Tampa Bay's secondary coach, taking over for current Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin when he left to coach the Vikings defense in 2006.

When Morris took over as coach, he and new General Manager Mark Dominik hired Jim Bates to run the defense, shifting Tampa Bay's philosophy away from Tampa-2. Bates' system, which utilizes very little blitzing and requires serious girth at the DT position, has essentially been made obsolete by the no-huddle offensive attacks brought back en vogue by Peyton Manning; a "nemesis" of Bates since Bates' days in Miami with the Dolphins. Pressure in a Bates system only comes from the defensive ends, and the secondary is forced to play man-to-man far too much.

The result has the Bucs with the second worst defense in the league, averaging 29 points per game surrendered.

After yet another blow out, this time at the hands of the currently undefeated Saints, it seems Raheem Morris had seen enough. During pre-season, Morris fired his offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski. With Bates no longer running the D, it seems Morris will pull double-duty as head coach and DC:

Bates, 63, will remain with the team at least through the end of the season in a consulting role, breaking down film and helping Morris on game day from the coaching box.
Morris is expected to immediately return the Bucs' to their Tampa Two scheme, which will allow their undersized defensive linemen to take advantage of their quickness rather than penalize them for a lack of size.

It's hard not to see this latest change as another knock on Morris, who has now fired both his team's coordinators before the season has even finished.

How does this affect the Colts?

Well, with Tampa Bay back in the Tampa-2 fold, it means one more team will be drafting Tampa-2 style players and signing free agents that fit the similar systems.

Regardless, the change just feels right. The Buccaneers playing Tampa-2 feels right. I'm glad they've seen the light, and are going back to what made them great in the first place.

Vikings Cruise to an Easy Win

Anthony21 — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 22:09:15 -0000

More photos » by Andy King - AP

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When Tarvaris Jackson is getting some third quarter playing time, and it's not because Brett Favre has been knocked out of the game, you know the Vikings have controlled the game and are winning convincingly. That was the case this afternoon, as the Vikings dominated the Seahawks in the first half and cruised to an easy win.

Sure, there were a few early stumbles, and the game remained scoreless after the first quarter. And for such a decisive win, Adrian Peterson's production was surprisingly limited by a Seattle defense that was committed to stuffing the run. But Brett Favre delivered one of his most efficient performances since becoming a Viking, completing a combined 19 passes to Visanthe Shiancoe, Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice. And the defensive effort by the Vikings was tremendous. The numbers tell the story of just how good this team was on defense.

The Vikings finished the game with 28 first downs; the Seahawks managed just 10, and many of those came after the result of the game was no longer in doubt. Seattle went 1/10 on third downs, but even more importantly, they finished the game with four rushing yards on 13 attempts. Their leading rusher, Justin Forsett, finished the game with nine rushing yards on nine attempts. If you want to see the story of this game, just look at the box score.

Matt Hasselbeck was fairly productive -- when Seattle actually had the ball. And the Seahawks didn't have the ball for long. The Vikings offense was on the field for over 42 minutes, finishing within striking distance of possessing the football for 75% of the game. Such dominance in a team's time of possession would normally imply an outstanding performance on the ground, but today, Favre was brilliant in controlling the tempo of the game.

If anything, Adrian Peterson's performance was below-average (by his standards). 24 carries for 82 yards, and he had a number of carries that either went for no gain or actually lost some yards. Seattle was completely focused on stopping the run, but they paid the price in the form of Favre's 213 yards and four touchdowns. This game just displays that teams need to pick their poison when facing the Vikings: Concentrate resources on stopping Adrian, and they risk Brett having a big day through the air. You can either get beat on the ground by the most exciting running back in the game, or you can get beat through the air by an MVP candidate. Your choice.

And on that note, I should add that the MVP chant was loud and clear at the Metrodome today. We knew Brett would be a great addition to this offense -- but I doubt anyone anticipated Brett being so efficient.

After Sidney caught a jump ball in the endzone from Favre, the win was sealed and T-Jack entered the game for about a quarter of playing time. Aside from a pass that probably should have been picked but somehow ended up in the hands of Sidney Rice, the mistakes were few and far between for Action Jackson. His final stat line: 6/8, 77 yards and a touchdown. He picked up right where Favre left off, in terms of running an efficient offense, controlling the ball, and controlling the pace of the game. Tarvaris did a nice job out there.

The 9-1 Vikings are at home against Chicago next weekend -- the 10-0 Saints are at home against the Patriots next Monday. The race for homefield has accomplished the unthinkable: We'll become Pats fans next week.