SB Nation - San Francisco 49ers

Golden Nuggets: It's game day!

Fooch — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 11:00:17 -0000

Ninjames is out of commission for the Nuggets today, so I'm handling the duties. I mixed in a few different links from normal, so let me know if they work for you. I've included some stuff from the Jaguars SB Nation log, as well as some local Jacksonville items. I figure it's a good way to figure out what's going on with the opposition.

I'll be traveling most of the day today but I've scheduled several game threads. The specific times will be in the first 49ers-Jaguars thread opening up at noon. Also, the Steelers are apparently sitting Roethlisberger today, so if you want to change your Ravens-Steelers prediction, head over here to do it. Please make sure and reply directly to your previous predictions so we can keep things close together.

On Sunday, there will be live blogging from 49ers vs. Jacksonville (SJ Mercury News)

Jaguars back Jones-Drew a challenge for 49ers (SJ Mercury News)

49ers icons Jerry Rice, Roger Craig among HOF semifinalists (SJ Mercury News)

Steve Young: 49ers could be 'stuck' (Sando - ESPN.com)

NFC West draft watch: Quarterbacks (Sando - ESPN.com)

Final Word: NFC West (Sando - ESPN.com)

Comparing Smith, Hill to division's QBs (Sando - ESPN.com)

Mailbag: Surprising NFC West stats (Sando - ESPN.com)

Morgan Spends Time with Contest Winner (49ers.com)

Heitmann and Battle: Stanford vs. ND (49ers.com)

Seven Former 49ers Named HOF Semifinalists (49ers.com)

As vets show youthful exuberance, division tilts take center stage (NFL.com)

49ers notes: Singletary says QB Smith humble, not meek (Barrows)

49ers' Smith improving, but numbers not great (SFGate.com)

Question Lady wonders what 49ers fans want to know (Maiocco)

Time running out on 49ers' playoff hopes (Maiocco)

49ers Game Day (Maiocco)

Week 12 Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers (Big Cat Country)

Jack Del Rio: Coach of the Year?? (Big Cat Country)

Trying to reclaim glory - 49ers at a crossroads (Jaguars.com)

Jaguars and 49ers: Backed by 'backers (Jacksonville.com)

Jaguars vs. 49ers: At stake (Jacksonville.com)

Surprising Jags surge into San Francisco (Seattle Post-Intelligencer)

OffshoreInsiders Sports Betting Picks (Offshoreinsiders.com)

49ers records to keep an eye on going forward

Fooch — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 22:00:15 -0000

Although the 49ers are certainly struggling this season, some individuals are looking to break some franchise records, or at least approach some of them. I thought I'd throw some out there for folks to keep an eye on.

Frank Gore
Gore needs three more 100-yard games to tie RB Joe Perry for the most in 49ers history. He also ranks 9th in team history with 6,696 total yards from scrimmage for his career. With 115 yards he'll pass Dwight Clark for 8th on the all-time list, and with 259 yards h'll surpass RB Hugh McElhenny for 7th on the all-time list.

Joe Nedney
Nedney is currently tied for 40th all-time in scoring with 1,037 career points, and needs 7 points to move into 39th place on the NFL’s all-time scoring list.

Vernon Davis
As great as Brent Jones was at tight end, folks might be surprised to know that he only had one 100-yard receiving game in his distinguished career. On the other hand Vernon Davis is currently tied with former TE (and Fooch favorite) Eric Johnson with two 100-yard games in his career (both being this season). One more such game and Davis will own the franchise record.

On top of that, Davis needs one more touchdown to tie Brent Jones and Ted Kwalick for most touchdowns by a tight end in franchise history. Also, Antonio Gates holds the NFL record for most touchdowns in a season by a tight end with 13 (set in 2004). Finally, Davis needs 225 receiving yards to surpass Eric Johnson (825) for most receiving yards by a tight end in franchise history.

Davis has clearly dipped into the well of talent he possesses, going beyond just scratching the surface. The question going forward is what kind of numbers can we expect from him over the course of his career (assuming he signs an extension soon (he's a free agent after NEXT season)? The addition of Michael Crabtree will probably cut into his numbers. As long as the 49ers are winning I don't care who's catching what. However, I'm curious how a guy like Crabtree (and even Morgan if you want to include him) will affect the numbers of The Disease. One could argue having another good receiver opens up Davis, but I'm sure some will counter that.

49ers-Jaguars: The World According to Madden

Fooch — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:00:27 -0000

Fooch's Note: This post was written by mountaindew77 and I am posting it for him.

Hello Niners Nation. After a hectic week last week, I was unable to get the Madden simulation done. Thankfully, we have our good man Ninjames and he was able to fill in and do it. But now I'm back and hopefully I will be able to get it done each week from here on out. So here is how this works. I make sure I have downloaded the most updated rosters, I check the injury report and only take out the players from the depth chart that are going to miss the game for sure. I also update the depth charts according to how they are in the real NFL.

The game is Madden 10 for the PS3. I set up this week's matchup in Madden with 14 minute quarters and 25 second clock run-off for a more realistic amount of plays. I set the difficulty on All-Madden, sit back, and watch the matchup and give you guys a play-by-play. Let's get this thing started.

1^st Quarter

Niners win the toss and elect to receive. Robinson returns from 5 yards deep in the end zone and gets it out to the 49er 20 yard line where the Niners will start their first drive. The first play from scrimmage is a pitch to Gore to the right who gets dragged down by Justin Durant for no gain. On 2^nd down Smith drops back and feels pressure quick, but dumps off to Gore on a designed screen and Gore makes the first tackler miss and has room breaks it for a 24 yard gain to the 44 and a Niners first down. Crabs and Morgan are lined up out left Gore is the single back on the next play. Smith drops back throws a short curl route to Morgan who gets tackled immediately for only a 2 yard gain. The next play we see Smith drop back out of a 4 WR set but gets sacked almost instantly and it's now 3rd and 12. Smith drops back and again almost gets sacked, but dumps off to Gore once again on a designed screen. Gore has room, gets a couple nice blocks, makes a spin move to make a guy miss, but gets dragged down just 1 yard short of the 1st and the Niners have to punt. Andy Lee kicks it into the endzone for the touchback.

David Garrard drops back on the Jaguars first play from scrimmage and delivers a nice pass to Mike Sims-Walker over the middle who has room to run and does for a 27 yard gain. Garrard found a hole in the 49ers zone defense. From his own 47, Maurice Jones-Drew gets the handoff on the stretch play to the right but Michael Lewis comes up from the secondary and stops him for only a 3 yard gain. MJD gets the ball up the middle for another 3 yard gain before he gets tackled by Isaac Sopoaga. 3rd and 4. Spencer with the very light coverage leaves Sims Walker able to catch an easy pass and run for a 15 yard gain and another 1st down to the 31 yard line. Jones-Drew up the middle bounces off a couple tacklers and fights for a 9 yard gain. MJD gets it up the middle again but this time Manny Lawson breaks through and stuffs him for no gain. A big 3rd and 1 coming up. Garrard drops back to pass and Marcedes Lewis is covered by Lawson who cannot keep up with him and Garrard finds him for a 19 yard gain and the Jags are at the 49er 3 yard line. Jaguars come out in the goal line formation. Rashad Jennings gets the handoff and appears to be stopped, but no one seems to want to tackle him. He cuts out to the right and runs in for the touchdown. 7-0 Jaguars

Coffee kneels down in the endzone on the kickoff for the touchback. Smith drops back on first down, gets all day to throw, doesn't like what he sees, and scrambles. But he slides down to avoid getting hit for a 2 yard loss and a Jaguars sack. Gore gets the ball up the middle, but finds nowhere to run, no gain. Niners come out in the Shotgun, 4WR set. Smith gets good blocking again from the line, but again cannot find an open receiver. He proceeds to chuck it down field, but gets hit as he throws. Gore almost catches the lob, but it gets knocked down. A three-and-out for the 49er offense.

Lee with a decent punt, but the Niners punt coverage cannot get to Witherspoon and he gets a 15 yard return. Ball on the 49er 47. Niners blitz one corner on each side, and Garrard can only throw the ball away. MJD up the middle on 2nd down, but Lewis stuffs him for just a 2 yard gain. On 3rd and 8 Garrard drops back feels almost immediate pressure from Manny Lawson, and throws it quickly to Torry Holt on the left side but Dre Bly with the blanket coverage knocks it down. A three-and-out for the Jaguars.

Adam Podlesh punts it into the endzone for a touchback and the Niners start on the 20. Niners once again line up in the Shotgun, 4WR formation, with 2 WR's on each side. The Jags drop back in zone coverage, Smith throws a bullet to Crabs on the quick read for an 18 yard gain and a 1st down. Out of the Singleback 3WR, Smith drops back splits the defenders, and finds Arnaz Battle on a crossing route over the middle for a nice 14 yard gain and a first down. Ball on the Jacksonville 48. Smith drops back again, gets great protection, but can't find a receiver and throws it away. On 2nd down Smith has Delanie Walker behind the defense, but throws a terrible ball way short and way behind him. Justin Durant turns around and picks it off with ease and returns it to midfield.

David Garrard drops back and throws it out to the left for Holt, but Bly has him blanketed yet again, he turns around and jumps for the pick! The Niners get the ball back right away.

Niners ball on their own 42. Gore up the middle, shakes off 2 defenders and runs for a gain of 4. Out of the Shotgun, Gore gets the draw, finds room out to the left, sheds a tackler, and has no one to stop him. He is finally met by Reggie Nelson, but he shakes him off too and is finally brought down at the 13 after a beautiful 41 yard run! What a way to end the 1st quarter!

2^nd Quarter

Gore gets the ball up the middle on the dive play for a 2 yard gain. Smith tosses out to Gore out right, but the Jags are not fooled and stuff Gore as soon as he catches it for a 5 yard loss. 3rd and 12 at the 15. Smith drops back, has Gore open on the screen, but gets hit as he throws and the ball falls incomplete. The Niners disappointingly settle for a Joe Nedney field goal. 7-3 Jaguars

Witherspoon catches the kickoff at the 3, and returns to the Jacksonville 34. Jones-Drew on the stretch to the left, but Takeo Spikes stuffs him for a 1 yard loss. Garrard feels pressure from Spikes on 2nd down and has to throw the ball away quickly. 3rd and 11. Garrard finds Holt on the in route for 11 yards, and after a measurement, it's a Jacksonville 1st down. Gotta love that 3rd down 49er defense. MJD finds a hole up the middle for a 10 yard gain and yet another 1st down. MJD with a run, cuts to the left and gets a 3 yard gain. Niners bring the house on 2nd down, and Garrard just gets the ball off before getting pummeled by Haralson. The ball floats downfield intended for Mike Thomas, but Dashon Goldson catches up to the lobbed pass and nearly makes the pick but it bounces off his hand. 3rd and 7 at the 49er 41. Garrard drops back, throws it to MJD on the screen to the left, and sees daylight. He gets all the way down to the 10 before getting brought down by Lewis. Garrard hands off to Jennings up the middle who gets stuffed by Spikes for no gain. Garrard drops back, and the Niners drop back in zone coverage. He thinks he has Thomas wide open for the TD, but he doesn't see Spikes drop back into coverage, and he picks it off at the goal line! He is forced to bring it out, and the Niners start at their own 3. What a drive for Takeo Spikes.

Gore with the stretch to the left for a 5 yard gain. Gore gets the handoff, cuts out right, finds a hole, shakes off Reggie Nelson, has no one in front of him, and never looks back! He... could... go... all... the... way!! Touchdown 49ers on the 91 yard run by Gore! 10-7 49ers

Witherspoon returns from the 1, and poor kick coverage yet again. Jaguars starts on their 35. MJD gets the hand off, but Sopoaga breaks through the line and stuffs him for a 1 yard loss. MJD with another run, and this time no one is there to stuff him and he gets an 8 yard gain. 3rd and 3 on their own 42. MJD gets the ball up the middle, sees a gap, but it closes quickly and Franklin/ Spikes drag him down for only a 1 yard gain. 4th and 2 and a three-and-out for the 49er defense.

Jones on the return gets the ball to the 24. 5 minutes remaining in the half. Smith takes a 7-step drop, stands in the same spot for about 7 seconds, and gets sacked by Terrance Knighton. Out of the 4 WR spread single back formation Smith drops back, Crabs has his man beat by a good 5 steps, but Smith feels the pressure and overthrows him by a mile. 3rd and 18 at the 16. Out of the Shotgun, Smith gets good protection again but cannot find an open man, so he dumps off to Gore who gets tackled as soon as he catches it for no gain. Three-and-out.

Jacksonville starts on their own 48. Garrard drops back, finds Marcedes Lewis over the middle for a 12 yard gain and a first down. MJD gets a nice 6 yard gain up the middle. MJD on the toss breaks a tackle, finds room and breaks it for an 8 yard gain and a first down to the 49er 26. The clock runs down to the 2 minute warning. MJD runs to the left for a 7 yard gain. Garrard drops back and sees Willis coming at him unblocked. Afraid for his life, he throws the ball away but still takes the hit from Bam Bam. 3rd and 3 at the 18. Garrard out of the shotgun finds Thomas on the quick pass for a 9 yard gain and a 1st down at the 9. Garrard drops back, Lawson sheds a defender, gets pressure on Garrard and he throws it out of the end zone incomplete. Lawson punished him though as the 49ers have been doing this whole first half. Jennings up the middle for 1 yard. On 3rd and goal from the 8, Garrard finds Thomas wide open in the back of the end zone who makes a nice leaping catch for the TD. 14-10 Jaguars

With 1:03 on the clock the Niners start on their own 25. They come out in a shotgun, and it appears they will try and get a quick score before the half. Smith hits Gore up the middle for a 13 yard catch. Smith gets hit as he throws and it falls incomplete. Smith overthrows Jones for an incomplete pass. On 3rd down Smith finds Battle down the left sideline, but he fails to get both feet in and it is ruled incomplete. 4th down and a three-and-out.

Jaguars start at their 30 with :33 left, and will run out the clock to the 2nd half with a handoff to MJD.

Halftime thoughts

So far it has been a back and forth game. Gore has had 2 huge plays and that is what has given the Niners all 10 of their points. The defense came up big in the red zone with that Spikes INT which likely would have been more points for the Jags. Garrard is feeling pressure almost every time he's dropped back to pass and has taken a beating so far. Despite that, the Niners defense cannot make plays on 3rd down when they need them and it has cost them the lead. On the other side, the O Line has been playing surprisingly well, but Smith has not taken advantage of it well enough. Gore has though, racking up 139 rushing yards already and 188 total yards. He is once again the one man offense of the 49ers.

3^rd Quarter

Jaguars get the ball to start on their own 31. The Niners special teams has played subpar today. MJD gets the ball up the middle, and Lawson finally brings him down after breaking 2 tackles and getting a tough 4 yard gain. Garrard finally gets some protection and time and finds Lewis out to the left for a 16 yard gain and they are at the 49er 49 yard line. Once again Lewis gets open and catches a 12 yard 1st down pass. MJD gets the toss to the right, but Willis is just too fast and chases him down for no gain. MJD up the middle and finds a huge hole for a 10 yard gain and yet another Jags first down. Ball at the 49er 27. Garrard splits two defenders with a pass to Holt, but he gets hit as he catches it and the ball pops out incomplete. Garrard drops back and hands off on the draw to Jennings for a 4 yard gain. 3rd and 6. Garrard gets plenty of time, and finds MJD on the streak route down the right side wide open and Spencer can't keep up with him and it's an easy catch for a TD. 21-10 Jaguars

Coffee gets hammered on the return and the Niners start on the 27. 3 WR Singleback set and Vernon Davis catches the patented pass over the shoulder for a nice 15 yard gain and a first down. The Niners spread out in a 4WR formation and Smith gets good protection which gives Davis time to get open on a deep post route and catches another pass, this time for 24 yards and the Niners are in Jacksonville territory. Ball on the 34. On the play action to Gore, Smith gets it out quickly to Moran Norris on a 4 yard catch. On 2nd down, Smith connects with Morgan who gets his first catch today on a short slant route for 6 yards and just enough for the first. Ball on the Jaguars 23. Another play action to Gore and on the same play, Norris gets another catch on the screen route and runs for an 8 yard gain. On 2nd and 2, Davis comes in motion to the right, Gore gets the handoff, breaks one tackle and sprawls the ball out across the first down marker as he gets dragged down. First down Niners and they are knocking on the door at the 13. Smith gets all day as the Jags only bring 2 rushers but he still cannot find a man and throws it incomplete on a pass intended for Gore on the curl route. Gore gets the ball on the draw, and finds a hole and fights his way for a 7 yard gain. 3rd and 3 at the 6. Smith on the play action stretch to Coffee, he rolls out to the right. He finds Davis wide open in the end zone... Touchdown Niners!!! It's called the Vernon Zone for a reason. The 9ers line up to go for 2, in hopes of bringing it within a field goal. In the I-Formation, Coffee gets the ball up the middle, gets met at the goal line, but he got the ball across the plane! 21-18 Jaguars

Witherspoon returns to the 21 as the Niners finally get good special teams coverage. MJD gets dragged down by Lawson and Willis for a 2 yard gain. Garrard takes a 3 step drop and throws to Sims-Walker on the hot read who runs for a 15 yard gain to the 37. Out of the shotgun, Garrard throws out to Thomas on the short slant, but he did not get 2 feet in and it's ruled incomplete. On 2nd down, Marcedes Lewis burns Michael Lewis and gets wide open and with some nice YAC, gets the ball to the 49er 35 on a 28 yard completion. On first down Garrard throws to Mike Thomas on the out route. He has a step on Haralson, but he under throws him and Parys jumps the route and picks it off! He then gets the ball back into Jacksonville territory to the 38. That is Garrard's 3rd interception thrown this game.

Niners in 4WR Shotgun formation, it's a draw to Gore who gets pummeled for a 5 yard loss. Smith gets hit as he throws on 2nd down and almost gets picked off but it's dropped. On 3rd down out of the shotgun, Smith has all day to throw, throws it for Battle, but it is a terrible decision as it's thrown into heavy coverage and Witherspoon picks it off, and no one is in front of him to stop him from going all the way and getting the pick-6. 28-18 Jaguars

Robinson on the return to the 27. Handoff up the middle to Gore who gets 8 yards. 2 WR set Smith drops back hits an open Walker out to the left for an 8 yard gain and a first down. With just 4 seconds left in the 3rd quarter, Smith drops back and hits Battle over the middle in tight coverage who gets brought down right away for a 7 yard gain.

4^th Quarter

Niners out of the shotgun, 3 WR set and Smith hits Battle yet again who's wide open over the middle for a 12 yard gain. The ball is now on the JAX 37. Out of the shotgun, Smith throws to Crabs who has his man beat downfield, but it's underthrown and gets knocked down. Smith hits Battle over the middle again for an 8 yard gain. 3rd and 2 on the 30, Niners in Shotgun, Smith drops back, has Vernon downfield open, but he gets hit just as he throws and lobs it up and the ball gets knocked down by Reggie Nelson. Joe Nedney kicks, the ball hits the upright, and barely falls through. 28-21 Jaguars with 12:30 left in the game.

Witherspoon returns the kick to the 29. MJD with a 2 yard run up the gut. Garrard drops back, can't find a WR, and gets sacked by Lawson. On 3rd and 14, the Jags don't want to take any chances and give the ball to MJD who gets 2 yards and the Jags have to punt on the three-and-out.

Brandon Jones gets a 5 yard return to the 34. Gore rushes up the middle for 5 yards. Out of the Taser, Gore gets the direct snap and gets stuffed for 1 yard... On 3rd and 4, Smith throws into double coverage for Davis and it is nearly picked off. What would we do without that Taser?

Jacksonville starts on their 36. Garrard to Greg Jones on the flat route for 7 yards. MJD on the draw, but Lawson meets him 4 yards in the backfield for a nice stuff. 3rd and 7. Garrard out of the shotgun, has a man over the middle, but Spikes sneaks in there in the zone and bats it away for a much needed big 3rd down play. 7:25 remaining after the three-and-out.

Jones returns the punt to the 22. Gore up the middle, sheds 2 guys, and gets 6 yards. Niners in the bunch formation on 2nd and 4, Smith drops back, and it's a draw play to Gore. Gore fights his way for 4 yards and after a measurement, it's a Niners first down! About 6 minutes remaining. Ball on their own 33. Smith gets all day, steps up in the pocket, but holds on for entirely too long and gets sacked for a 4 yard loss. On 2nd and 14 Gore gets a hand off, sees no holes in the line, and breaks out to the right. He leaps over a downed defender and makes a nice gain out of nothing for 13 yards. On 3rd and 1, we see the Taser again. Gore with the direct snap up the middle, and he barely gets the first. Niners ball on their own 43. Coffee with a run on first down up the gut for 3. 3 WR Singleback, Coffee gets another handoff towards the right for a 1 yard gain. Only 3 minutes remaining and a big 3rd and 6 coming up. It's a 4WR set with Davis split out with Jones and Morgan out to the left and Crabs on the right. Play action to Gore, Smith rolls out left, throws a deep pass to Morgan who has his man beat... and he comes down with it! He gets tackled by Nelson as he does and it's the Niners ball at the Jacksonville 24 with 2:10 remaining. Smith drops back and throws it to Gore on the flat route to the right and he gets brought down after a 6 yard gain. That brings us to the 2 minute warning and the Niners are officially in the Vernon Zone. We see another 4 WR singleback set, Smith throws it to Morgan on the short out route, but he cannot get his right foot in bounds, and the refs rule it incomplete. 3rd and 4. Out of the gun, Smith hits Davis on the curl route, who appears about to be brought down short of the first, but he trucks the guy, runs, and trucks yet another defender and runs all the way down to the 3 where he is brought down! Davis comes up big in his zone. Niners come up in the hurry up, for some reason. There is still about 1:40 on the clock. Out of the gun, Smith tries to throw, but gets hit as he does and it falls incomplete about 1 yard in front of him. Clock stopped at 1:32. Niners in the Split back formation. Smith drops back, Jags with the blitz, but Smith sees Jones over the middle running free...and hits him for the touchdown!!! Joe Nedney hits the game tying extra point and it's all square at 28! The Jags still have 1:29 left on the clock though.

Jennings on the return to the 27. 1:23 after the kickoff and all 3 timeouts. Garrard drops back, hits Sims-Walker in tight coverage on the curl route for 12 yards and a first. In the hurry up, the Jags in shotgun, Garrard catches the snap over his head, nearly gets sacked by Willis, but he just got the ball off as it falls incomplete. 1:05 left on 2nd and 10. Garrard drops back, gets very good protection from his line, and throws a very deep ball. It's a lobber though, and the Spikes has time to get back and swat the pass intended for Thomas. 3rd and 10. Garrard throws a quick pass over the middle, Willis jumps the route, and nearly picks it off for what surely would have been a game winning INT. The Jags have to punt with :53 remaining.

Brandon Jones on the return. He trucks one guy and gets a decent return to the Niner 36 with :43 left. Do they play for OT or try and score? They do have all 3 timeouts. It appears they choose the latter as they come out in the shotgun. Davis in motion to the left... Alex throws it for Morgan who jumps up for the catch, but it bounces off his hands. 2nd and 10. Niners in shotgun again. Smith drops way back, throws it very deep before he gets hit, but just as Garrard's pass, it's a lobber and it gets knocked down. Intended for Battle. :32 remaining. Niners come out in the Gun again for one more try for this first down. Smith dumps it off to Gore over the middle, who gets stopped 6 yards short and the Jags call a timeout. Witherspoon returns the punt to the JAX 25.

On 1st and 10, it's a false start on the Jags. 1st and 15 from the 20, and they just hand off to MJD who gets stopped for no gain, and they let the clock run out and we're headed to overtime!

Overtime

The Jags win the toss and get the ball first. Witherspoon returns the kickoff to the 27. Garrard hits Sims-Walker on the quick pass for an 18 yard gain and they're on their own 45. Another quick pass this time to the right to Lewis, who has a 15 yard gain, another first down, and he has now passed 100 yards receiving on the day. Ball on the Niner 41. Out of the gun, Garrard throws the slant route to Jones who runs out of bounds after 6 yards. 2^nd and 4. Garrard dances around in the pocket, no pressure at all. After seeing nothing, he scrambles up the middle. But he doesn't slide, and instead he takes a HUGE hit from Patrick Willis, and he fumbles! Parys Haralson picks it up and the Niners have possession! Ball on the Jaguars 35.

Smith hands off to Gore up the middle for a 3 yard gain. Gore again up the middle for 5 yards. 3rd and a little more than 1 on the 44. Gore fights up the middle for a nice 3 yard gain and a first down. Gore up the middle for a 2 yard gain to the 49. 2nd and 8. On the screen play, Smith gets smashed as he throws and the ball flies up and nearly gets picked off by Daryl Smith. 3rd and 9. In the gun, Davis moves from the TE spot and motions out to the left next to Morgan. Smith takes the snap, has Crabs on a deep out post route, but he waited a bit too long as he catches it out of bounds. 4th and 9.

Lee punts it into the end zone. Play action to MJD, who goes out for a curl route, catches the pass, but then gets plowed by Bam Bam but holds on for an 8 yard gain. MJD up the middle on 2nd and 2 for 3 yards and a first down. Garrard with the fake to MJD, throws it out left, but Bly comes up and knocks it down. 2nd and 10. Out of the gun, Garrard gets the snap, has some time, and throws a deep ball. Thomas is the intended receiver and somehow got matched up with Parys Haralson who just can't keep up and has no help from a safety. Thomas comes down with the wide open catch on a perfectly placed pass, and has room to run, and he does. Touchdown Jags on the 69 yard TD reception. What a heartbreaker. Jaguars win 34-28

Post Game Stats

JAX - 7 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 6 - 34

SF - 0 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 0 - 28

Jacksonville -- Stat - San Francisco

448 - Total Offense - 423

95 - Rushing Yards - 197

353 - Passing Yards - 226

18 - First Downs - 16

4 - Turnovers - 2

7-12 (58%) - 3^rd Down - 5-15 (33%)

34:12 - TOP - 32:51

Alex Smith -- 65.6 RTG 22-42 (52%) 241 YDS 2 TD 2 INT David Garrard - 82.9 RTG 20-36 (55%) 359 YDS 3 TD 3 INT

Frank Gore - 22 ATT 195 YDS (8.8 YPC) | 6 REC 59 YDS Maurice Jones-Drew - 24 ATT 81 YDS (3.3 YPC) | 3 REC 61 YDS 1 TD

Arnaz Battle -- 4 REC 41 YDS Marcedes Lewis - 6 REC 101 YDS

Brandon Jones/Vernon Davis- 1 REC TD Mike Thomas -- 3 REC 86 YDS 2 TD

Manny Lawson - 5 TK (3 TFL) 2 Sacks Terrance Knighton - 5 TKL (3 TFL) 2 Sacks

Takeo Spikes - 4 TKL 1 INT 3 knockdowns Justin Durant - 8 TKL (1 TFL) 1 INT

Dre Bly/Parys Haralson -1 INT Brian Witherspoon - 2 TKL 1 INT (TD)

Post-Game Thoughts
Well this game definitely did not disappoint as far as exciting goes. These teams were back and forth all game trading blow for blow. But even 256 total yards from Frank Gore, containment of Maurice Jones-Drew for the most part, and 4 turnovers from Garrard could not lead the Niners to a victory in this one. The defense did not make plays when they needed to in key situations; mainly on 3rd down and the offense could not take advantage of the chances Garrard was giving them left and right. The big plays made the difference in this one, and the Jags had just one too many. Let's hope tomorrow brings us a different result.

Mining your way to fantasy gold - Week 12 Weekend Edition

Andrew Davidson — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:00:14 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

View full size photo »

Well, to say the least, the Thursday Turkey Day games were rather disappointing. For those of you stuffed out of your waist bands, there's no doubting you feel asleep during the later games. The good news? The fantasy performers were alive and well all day long, well, except Eli Manning and the Giants. Green Bay's Defense was the stud of the day, and Charles Woodson owners in IDP leagues enjoyed a pretty big performance (6 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 FF, 1 Def TD). Now that the sloppy Thanksgiving games are out of the way, it's time to focus on this Sunday's slate. Those of you looking for fantasy match-ups in the Saskatchewan Rough-Riders and Montreal Alouettes Grey Cup battle, you're at the wrong blog.

The Sleepers

Kellen Winslow TE TB @ ATL - Tampa Bay's TE is handling a knee-injury, but should be good to go by Sunday. The Falcons typically allow pretty good TE production, and Winslow should add another 5+ reception game to his season total (5). The Falcons have allowed 16 PaTDs on the season, giving the Soldier a good chance at crossing the stripe for six. Winslow is a very good start in fantasy leagues this weekend, plug him into your lineup. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 6 catches, 75 yards, 1 TD

CAR Team DEF @ NYJ - I like the Panthers here because they match-up well against the Jets. Both teams are heavy-run teams, and both teams will be grinding away for yards most of the afternoon. The Panthers run D is suspect, ranked 26th in the NFL, but their pass D is formidable, ranking 4th. Mark "Dirty" Sanchez has thrown just as many INTs at home as he has on the road (8). The Jets are struggling as of late, losing 3 straight; while the Panthers fall victim to the inconsistency bug. This game has defensive struggle written all over it, and I'm leaning on the Panthers, because Jake Delhomme has thrown just one INT in four games and Sanchez has thrown 6 in his past two. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 13 points allowed, 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 1 FR

After the jump, the QBs, WRs, and RBs to start or sit this weekend...

QB to Start

Matt Ryan ATL vs. TB - Ryan hasn't had the greatest season so far, but turned it around last weekend against the Giants. The Falcons comeback came up short in OT, but Ryan threw for 268 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs. With the 1-9 Bucs coming to town, Ryan has a favourable match-up for the second week in a row; Tampa has allowed 22 PaTDs so for this season. The Bucs have a poor run defense, but I still expect the Falcons QB to put up respectable fantasy numbers. Feel no fear, and start Matty Ice. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 220 pass yards, 2 PaTDs, 0 INTs

QB to Sit

Joe Flacco BAL vs. PIT - Flacco hasn't thrown a TD pass in 3 straight games and has only thrown for 200+ once in that span (256 last week). After blazing onto the fantasy scene earlier in the season (Three 300-yards games, 11 TDs in first 6 games), the Ravens signal caller has cooled off (just 1 PaTD in past 4, 0 300-yard games). The Steelers may be down Troy Polamalu, but the 12th ranked Pass D should hold up ok without him. Keep Flacco on the bench, Pittsburgh has allowed just 11 PaTDs this season. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 200 pass yards, 1 PaTD, 2 INTs

WR to Start

Michael Crabtree SF vs. JAX - This is a bad idea, by naming Crabtree as the WR to start I've likely jinxed the poor guy into a goose-egg this Sunday. After all, I did say I wouldn't be relying on Crab in my fantasy sit/starts for the rest of the season. However, with the Jags pass "defense" coming to town, and Crabtree's first NFL TD out of the way, it's hard not to see this favourable match-up without bias. The Jaguars have the 25th ranked pass defense, and have also allowed 17 PaTDs. It's time to put Crabtree in your starting lineup. Week 12 fantasy forecast: 6 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD

WR to Sit

DeSean Jackson PHI vs. WAS - The last time Jackson faced the Redskins, all he did was score on a 67-yard rushing TD on top of his 69 yards receiving (1 TD). In other words, I might be foolish to suggest sitting Jackson against Washington, but foolish is my middle name (well one of my many middle names). I'm standing by the Redskins #1 ranked pass defense, and I expect Jackson to be kept in check. However, the speedster is a threat to score even if he gets just one touch, but I'll bet against that threat this week (Washington has allowed 10 PaTDs). Week 12 fantasy forecast: 2 catches, 60 yards, 0 TDs; 1 rush, 15 yards

RB to Start

Justin Forsett SEA @ STL - In Julius Jones' absence, Justin Forsett has been a pretty formidable fantasy performer. Over the past two games, Forsett has had 238 total yards and 2 TDs (123 rush yards @ ARI, 80 receiving last week @ MIN). Jones is still a bit banged up, so Forsett will be a pretty good start with or without Jones playing. The Seahawks should be leaning on the former 7th round pick to see what they have moving forward. Start Forsett against a weak Rams D, who ranked 28th in the NFL vs. the run while allowing 14 rush TDs. Week 12 forecast: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD; 4 catches, 35 yards

RB to Sit

Joseph Addai IND @ HOU - Similar to DeSean Jackson vs. Washington, the last time Addai faced the Texans he scored 1 rushing TD and also caught 1 TD. The Colts RB has been on fire the past 3 games, scoring a total of 5 TDs. Also making this "sit" recommendation sketchy, Houston is ranked 22nd against the run, and have given up 13 rush TDs. However, I think all good things must come to an end, and I think the Texans will keep Addai out of the end zone, ending his 3-game LT-like TD streak. Week 12 forecast: 60 yards rushing, 0 TDs; 3 catches, 30 yards, 0 TDs

That's all there is for this weekend's fantasy forecast, all stats from Yahoo! and NFL Team Rankings. Be sure to check out the poll and make your selection for top fantasy performer. As usual, if you have any specific sit/start questions, don't be shy in the comments below. For those watching the Grey Cup, I'll take the Rough-Riders to beat the Alouettes, 35-31.

Poll

Who will be the top fantasy performer this weekend?

49ers-Jaguars: Final Injury Report

Fooch — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 15:00:13 -0000

Not a whole lot of shockers in the final injury report, although we get confirmation that Michael Robinson will more than likely miss out on the game. Doubtful means 75% chance the player won't play. Safe to say no Robinson. So does that mean we'll get a bit more Josh Morgan in the return game? I've attached Coach Singletary's press conference from yesterday, but there's no mention of the return game.

For those wondering, Morgan does have some return experience back in college. His senior year he returned 16 kicks for 276 yards (long of 34). It's nothing spectacular, but better than nothing. We'll see how this plays out on Sunday.

49ers
Out
CB Nate Clements (shoulder)
OT Joe Staley (knee)

Doubtful
WR Isaac Bruce (ankle)
RB Michael Robinson (concussion)

Questionable
WR Arnaz Battle (ankle)
LB Takeo Spikes (hamstring)

Probable
G David Baas (ankle)
CB Tarell Brown (knee)
CB Marcus Hudson (back)
S Michael Lewis (quadricep)
S Reggie Smith (abdomen)
OT Adam Snyder (shoulder)
S Curtis Taylor (knee)
LB Patrick Willis (shoulder)

Jaguars
Out
CB Rashean Mathis (groin)

Probable
RB Maurice Jones-Drew (knee)
WR Mike Sims-Walker (knee)

Head Coach Mike Singletary
Post-Practice - November 27, 2009
San Francisco 49ers

On the status of LB Takeo Spikes:

"It's going to be a game time [decision]. He tried to practice a little bit today. We didn't have him overexert himself, but he looked pretty good. We'll see come game time."

On who takes over the leadership role on defense when Spikes is not in the lineup:

"I think [LB] Patrick [Willis] is doing a much better job. I think that Takeo and Pat work really well together, and I think that when Takeo is not there, that Pat has to pick it up a bit. [LB] Matt Wilhelm is still trying to get used to doing it, but hopefully this week Takeo steps up and is ready to go. I'll keep my fingers crossed for that."

On whether having Takeo Spikes out against Green Bay constituted to the yardage gained by Packers RB Ryan Grant:

"I'm sure that it had something to do with it, a little bit. I wouldn't go there and say, ‘well, he wasn't there,' no, I wouldn't go there. Certainly, continuity is big and Takeo really helps Pat out a lot, he really does, so he's a great asset to us."

On the challenge of containing Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew:

"It's a big challenge because you've got a huge offensive line, and next thing you know, he just comes out of nowhere. He hides really well behind them, so we really have our work cut out for us this week. They are a power team and he's a powerful runner. He's an effective guy, so we definitely have our hands full this week."

On whether he recollects having problems tackling diminutive runners when he played in the NFL:

"I would say for me - I was kind of small too, so it wasn't a big problem for me. For the linebackers, it shouldn't be a big issue. For our guys, we don't have huge guys, I think that Pat and Takeo should be just fine. The defensive linemen have to bend a little bit more to find him."

On Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew performance in short-yardage situations:

"He's a good back aside from being a shorter guy. I would say that's the only difference - he's a shorter guy, not a smaller guy. He's really compact and he keeps his legs moving behind that pile, and I'll tell you what now, the offensive line does a great job of pulling him forward. So I think that we have to reevaluate that rule before the game, but the offensive line does a great job of pulling him right along with them so that helps too."

On whether a sneak play against Green Bay should have been raised as an issue with the league:

"It should have been. The whole sneak thing when guys are pulling you forward - it should be, but I guess they don't enforce it that much, but we'll have to look at that."

On any other personnel moves to be made prior to Sunday's contest against Jacksonville:

"No."

On talking to the referees pre-game concerning the sneak plays:

"It's not really a big thing, we just have to mention things that could possibly come up in a game. Things that you see on film, those are just little things that you communicate to the referees before the game so they can look at it prior [to the game]."

On whether sneak plays are done by hitting a runner forward or pulling him forward:

"There are time when it's kind of like rugby - he's in there and they're just pushing, shoving, pulling, and the whole nine yards. They do a good job of blocking, it's not like they're cheating.They're working and they're doing what they have to do. I think that it's going to be up to us to do everything that we can do to stop them, but they do a good job of blocking for him."

On whether he agrees with offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye's assessment of QB Alex Smith maturation and assertiveness:

"Oh yeah, I think that I've been saying the same thing. I haven't quite gotten to excellent yet, but I would say that only because I haven't used that word. But I think that Alex Smith is making really good progress. I think that we're all thankful that he's making the progress that he's making, so hopefully we just continue to go forward with that. If he can continue to get better from week to week, it helps us that much more trying to get where we need to go."

On what hasn't Alex Smith done in order to make progress:

"I would say, if I had to point to one thing, whenever you look at a quarterback, it's all about winning. I think that you could say that it's kind of like your team, ‘Whoa man, we're playing hard, we're doing this, we're doing that....did you win the game? No. Well, end of conversation.' So it's kind of like the same with the quarterback. We've had some good quarterbacks come through this league, but they didn't win, so we don't know a whole lot about them. So for Alex, I think that he just has to continue working, and also our team and everything else, and we just have to bring that thing together and win."

On his comments on Alex Smith being ‘meek' and how an NFL quarterback can be successful with that quality:

"It's kind of the whole thing with leadership. You hit that point, I just want to answer that question and make sure that I define him right. Are leaders born or are they made? I think both, but when I think about Alex Smith, when I was talking about meek, I should have used the word humble. He's a guy, he doesn't want to cause any problems. To me, he doesn't have the typical mentality of a quarterback, which is, ‘Hey, this is what I want.' He's not like that and that's thing that I like about him and I'm sure going forward, I'm see more and more assertiveness, I'm seeing more and more, ‘Coach I like this, I don't like that,' and those kinds of things so I think it's a tremendous asset for him to be a guy that is still willing to be molded, still willing to listen and it's not all of a sudden, he throws a couple of touchdowns and he's not all of a sudden the greatest quarterback in the world. He's still listening and I think that's great so going forward I think he's going to find his balance. We are on this side of it saying, ‘Come on, give us the information, let us know where you are, let us know what you are thinking,' and I think he has been on the other side saying, ‘I don't want to cause any problems, I don't want to make this about me, I want it to be about the team, I want it to be about the offense,' and I think that's been his mentality and that's been great and we are saying we love that, but come on, be the guy that says ‘this is what I want,' and we'll say, ‘Okay, we are going to go here, we're going to do that and this.' Now we are where we need to be in the communication area and I think we are getting there, I just think he needed permission to say, ‘That's okay for me to say, this is what I want, this is what I need.' The answer is absolutely yes. We need to know exactly what it is and he's doing that."

On that ‘jerk' quality in most quarterbacks:

"For lack of a another word, yes, I would say that, but there are some that I know that are, I would say are very clear and concise about what it is that they want and the great thing about Alex is I think he's such a bright guy that he can do a number of things and I think he's still finding out some of those things that he likes better than others because he hasn't played as long. To me, I think it's a tremendous advantage for him and us going forward, so he's not set in his ways and so I think that's a good thing."

On whether it's hard for the quarterback not to be the natural leader of the team given he is the only one talking in the huddle:

"The way that Alex Smith is thinking right now and all that I've seen, I think Alex Smith understands that at some point in time it has to be about his point of view, but from a team aspect."

On what kind of a challenge the Jaguars defense present for their offense on Sunday:

"I guess for me, when I look at their defense, you look at those big guys up front and they come off the ball, they do a good job and are big physical guys. Their DBs look like they are communicating well on the backend, I just think that we have to go out and just do what we do. I don't think that we have to try and think up anything else, just go out and execute the offense and hopefully, we can put it together early, hopefully we can execute early and find our niche, find our balance and just kind of move forward with that."

On whether he would like to see his cornerbacks play more aggressively this week:

"We have to. Last week, for whatever reason, there were times when we were way too far off and gave them a lot more cushion than we had talked about during the week. So, yes, definitely get up there and challenge them a lot more than we did last week."

Week 12 Game Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers

FSBlueApocalypse — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 13:29:05 -0000

San Francisco 49ers (4-6)	Week #12	Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
	VS.

Date:	November 29nd, 2009	Location:	San Francisco, CA
Time:	4:15 PM EST	Stadium:	Candlestick Park
TV:	CBS	Favorite:	49ers -3
Radio:	Click Here	Over/Under:	40.5
Weather:	Sunny, mid 50's	Injury Report:	Click Here
SBN Coverage:	Niners Nation	Coverage Map	Click Here

Well, this is it guys. Tim Tebow's final home game. Standing in his way is a dilapidated Seminole team that is a shell of the 90's powerhouse. Oh wait, there's another football game this weekend involving a team from Northeast Florida? Could've fooled me.

The Jaguars make their second trip out west this season to take on a fast sinking 49ers team. After starting the year 3-1, Mike Singletary's bunch has lost five of their last six. In addition, they can thank Jay Cutler for their 10-6 win over Chicago a few weeks ago.

The similiarities between Singletary and Jack Del Rio are striking on the surface. Both are ex-Pro Bowl linebackers who worked their way up the ranks before becoming head coaches. Both want their teams to run the ball, stop the run, and punch the other team in the mouth. And both have issues with getting the most out of their teams on a consistent basis.

Will the Jaguars get to 7-4 or will they have another bad west coast trip?

Jaguars Offense vs 49ers Defense

The 49ers rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 256 yards a game. Despite signing Nate Clements to the richest defensive contract in NFL history, the 49ers only have six interceptions this year off QBs not named Jay Cutler. The 49ers also rank 22nd in the NFL in sacks. Perhaps the most chilling stat for the 49ers is that their pass defense has gotten worse over that six game span. The team has given up 286 yards a game, including four 300 yard games.

Needless to say, statistically this should prove to be a good day for David Garrard and the Jaguars WR corp. Mike Sims-Walker has been favoring a hamstring injury, but practiced all week. However, I sat here last week and said Maurice Jones-Drew would get 200 yards and 4 TDs against the Bills run defense.

Where the 49ers defense excels is against the run. Led by All-World MLB Patrick Willis, the 49ers are 6th in the NFL against the run. In addition, they are tied for second for the lowest per carry average, 3.4 yards.

The offensive line will need to play much better than the siv they were against the Bills. The rock solid line that rose to the occassion against the Jets needs to make another appearence if the Jaguars want to win.

Maurice Jones-Drew needs just 74 yards to hit 1,000 and 2 touchdowns to set the franchise record for rushing TDs. I say he breaks 1,000 and ties the franchise record this week, before breaking it next week vs Houston.

Jaguars Defense vs 49ers Offense

The Alex Smith experiment returns for an encore performance against the Jaguars. Since replacing Shaun Hill in Week 7 of the regular season, Smith has put up respectable numbers in 2009. Smith boasts a 81.5 QB rating this year, a far cry from his career average of 66.5.

The 49ers passing offense flows through All-Pro Tight End Vernon Davis. Davis is easily the team's leading receiver with 51 receptions, 601 yards, and 8 touchdowns. The Jaguars have never done well against receiving tight ends (see Clark, Dallas) so it will be a challenge to keep Davis contained.

The most talked about player in the 1st round this fear was WR Michal Crabtree. Since Crabtree finally signed with the team he has put up ok numbers, but nothing mind blowing. All I can say is that I'm much happier seeing him on the opposing sideline this week.

Since the Jaguars have returned to the 4-3 defense, the returns have been excellent. Discouting the big play to Terrell Owens, the Jaguars limited the Bills to just 250 yards of offense last week. Derrick Harvey's continued growth is promising, though more sacks would certainly be welcomed.

Once again the Jaguars will be without Rashean Mathis. Tyron Brackenridge did a good job vs Owens despite what the numbers say, and if nothing else, at least we won't see Reggie Nelson at corner again.

Player On The Hot Seat

David Garrard, QB

The 49ers will likely sellout to stop Jones-Drew and that means David will need to be on his game on Sunday. Expect to see the Jaguars throw early and often to take advantage of the bad pass defense.

Prediction

Jaguars 24

49ers 13

-Jonathan Loesche

Golden Nuggets: Spread talk won't go away

Ninjames — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 11:00:18 -0000

Morning everyone. The game is getting closer and closer and thanks to a couple of vandals who thought it keen to throw a couple pumpkins through the read windshield of my ride on Sunday I may not even be going this weekend. Thanks to whoever did that, by the way. Beyond that, I'm still very excited for this game. This team can still make the playoffs, but if the 49ers don't beat the Jaguars, they won't make the playoffs, of that I'm sure. Of course, that's not exactly going to be a problem, considering the 49ers are going to kick those Jags around at the 'Stick like it's nobody's business. Or at least, I hope so. I'm in a bit of a hurry right now so I'll get right to the links.

The team says that "assertiveness" is the next step in Alex Smith's evolution. (MercuryNews.com)

Here's yesterday's edition of Singletary's Notebook. (49ers.com)

One of the 49ers area scouts checks in with an update on his.. scouting since October. (49ers.com)

Teams Talk: Glen Coffee on the Jaguars. (49ers.com)

Singletary talks about his use of the word "meek" when referring to QB Alex Smith. (PressDemocrat.com)

OC Jimmy Raye addresses Alex Smith and the spread offense. (49ers.com)

Here's some numbers concerning the 49ers at this point in the season. (SacBee.com)

Move aside, Isaac Bruce. It's time for the young receivers. (SFGate.com)

Football Outsiders and the 49ers: Team Stats through Week 11

Florida Danny — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 03:45:24 -0000

Welcome back for another installment of my weekly look at the 49ers' team stats and rankings according to Football Outsiders' DVOA stat.* As I stated last week, part of the impetus for my new schedule was that my posts tend to be - and this is putting it mildly - on the longish side. So, some of you will be happy to see that this team stats post will be much shorter than it used to be. Basically, I've taken some info that I used to present here (e.g., TOT, OFF, DEF, & ST DVOA), and moved it to other posts during the week.

The fortunate byproduct of moving so many stats to other posts is that I can add in a couple of new stats here, and still have this post be shorter than it used to be. The new DVOA stats I'll be presenting in this post are

Home/Road DVOA - pretty self-explanatory.
Score Gap DVOA -how efficiently the OFF and DEF have performed in various game score situations.

In addition to these 2 stats, I'll be providing some pretty charts that show you the 49ers' Game-by-Game DVOAs on OFF and DEF over the course of the season thus far.

Housekeeping done. Time for the party.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

Here' how the offensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

OFF	Rank	Pass	Rank	Run	Rank	Variance	Rank
-10.5%	22	-3.5%	21	-5.3%	23	4.7%	6
OFF VOA	Rank	Pass VOA	Rank	Run VOA	Rank
-7.6%	23	0.0%	21	-2.9%	20

If you've been reading these posts all season, you'll notice something absolutely astounding. Namely, the 49ers' OFF is no longer ranked 25th or worse (aka in the bottom 8) in any of the above categories. In terms of their overall OFF DVOA, they've risen 4 spots and 5.5% since the bye week. You might ask, "Why?"

After the jump, I'll show you why, and then present the rest of the stats through Week 11...

To figure out why the Niners' OFF has improved to the degree that it has, check out the first of my new charts, which displays the smoothed-out trend for SF's Game-by-Game OFF, Pass OFF, and Rush OFF DVOA:

What this chart shows is pretty darn interesting, if you ask me. Basically, the OFF overall has been getting better ever since Alex Smith was elevated to starting QB (i.e., since the Falcons game). However, you'd think that it's been the pass OFF acting as the catalyst. Well, although it's true that - except for the Titans and Bears games - the pass OFF has generally been on the positive side of game DVOA, the rush OFF trend has yet to dip below 0.0% since Smith took over. So, my conclusion here, which I'm pretty sure I made last week, is that the biggest beneficiary of Alex Smith starting has not been Vernon Davis or Michael Crabtree; rather, it's been Frank Gore.

The reason for this counterintuitive effect seems plainly obvious. I've been giving you guys Shotgun vs. Non-Shotgun DVOA for weeks. With the abridging of this post, I've decided to drop them in general. However, because Smith starting has coincided with more shotgun, I'll give them to you one more time this week, except I'll show you what they are now as compared to what they were after the ATL game:

Through Week 11
% of Plays in Shotgun	Rank	Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Non-Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Difference	Rank
40.0%	13	8.7%	19	-20.4%	28	29.1%	9
Through Week 5
% of Plays in Shotgun	Rank	Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Non-Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Difference	Rank
32.9%	22	0.6%	21	-21.8%	27	22.4%	12
Change From Week 5 to Week 11
% of Plays in Shotgun	Rank	Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Non-Shotgun DVOA	Rank	Difference	Rank
7.1%	9	8.1%	2	1.4%	-1	6.7%	3

From this table, you can clearly see that, since Smith became the starter, the Niners' OFF has (a) become a much more shotgun-heavy unit, and (b) has become a much better shotgun unit. And again, based on game-by-game DVOA, Gore and the rush OFF has improved more over this time than the pass OFF. Therefore, it's pretty obvious that a major reason why the 49ers' rush OFF has gotten so much better is that they're using more shotgun.

In my view, the basic phenomenon at play here is that the shotgun is a passing formation, so opposing DEF's are either in a base DEF with only 7 men in the box, or their in a nickel DEF with only 6 men in the box. In other words, when the Niners' OFF lines up in shotgun, it prevents their opponent from committing 8 or 9 defenders to stopping the run. Given that the 49ers' OL is so bad at run-blocking, having a numbers advantage in the shotgun formation has essentially taken a team weakness and turned into a team strength.

As much as it makes me cringe to do this, I have to give kudos to Jimmy Raye for realizing this and working it into the game plan. To me, it's clearly the right thing to do from a strategic perspective. What frosts my rear end, however, is when any mention of even more shotgun seems to imply to the coaches that doing so will either prevent offensive balance or get them away from being the run-oriented OFF they so desperately want to be. As you can see from the stats I've just presented, this is unadulterated hogwash. The 49ers can just as easily have a run-oriented OFF out of the shotgun as they can have a multi-WR "spread" offense out of the shotgun. Furthermore, they don't have to sacrifice balance either. If anything, using more shotgun gives them a better chance of remaining a balanced OFF because having the threat of either running and passing - which the shotgun seems to have resulted in - will give them the flexibility of being able to call a run play or pass play at any given time, and the opposing DEF not being so certain about which is coming.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - DOWN SPLITS

Here are the OFF's pass and run DVOAs by down (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Down	OFF	Rank	Pass OFF	Rank	Run OFF	Rank
1st	-4.1%	20	-0.7%	21	0.6%	13
2nd	-20.1%	29	-16.6%	27	-9.7%	23
3rd	-8.9%	21	6.4%	18	-12.6%	26

The last time I gave you these stats was after Week 7. A lot has changed since then, again mostly due to Smith's elevation to the starting QB role. First, the 49ers' OFF is now 13.9% worse overall on 1st down, with the pass OFF being 33.6% worse, but the rush OFF being 7.6% better. So, once more we see that more shotgun equals better running because, in my mind, opposing DEF's aren't stacking the box with 8 or 9 guys absolutely certain that the Niners are going to run up the middle on first down.

Further evidence of this "we're not telegraphing our plays" idea is the change from Week 7 in 3rd-down OFF. Specifically, the 49ers' OFF is 1.6% better overall, with the pass OFF being 10.9% worse, but the rush OFF being 41.8% better. Again, strategy is the key. The presence of an actual passing threat on 3rd down - via the emergence of a successful shotgun OFF overall - prevents the DEF from keeping all of their defenders (esp. their Ss) within 10 yards of the line, and this numbers advantage allows the running game to be successful on 3rd down.

Here are the OFF's down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

Distance	OFF	Rank	Short	Rank	Mid	Rank	Long	Rank
1st	-4.1%	20	N/A
2nd	-20.1%	29	-28.4%	27	-11.5%	22	-20.9%	25
3rd	-8.9%	21	9.5%	15	-16.6%	22	-25.2%	23

The story continues here as well, with the biggest changes since Week 7 coming on 3rd & mid and 3rd & long. Specifically, the OFF is now 39.2% better on 3rd & mid, but 34.8% worse on 3rd & long. Once again, tendencies, and the ability of a shotgun OFF to mask tendencies, seems to be the catalyst. What is 3rd & long? It's clearly a passing down. Which part of the OFF, as indicated above, has gotten worse on 3rd down overall? The pass OFF. What is 3rd & Mid? Well, it's likely a passing down, but it could also be a running down. Regardless of whether it's a passing or running down, the DEF can't keep all defenders close to the line when there's a credible passing threat. Which part of the OFF, as indicated above, has gotten better on 3rd down overall? The rush OFF. So, to me, it's no surprise that the 49ers have gotten worse at the 3rd-down distance from which the DEF can play 100% pass, but have gotten a lot better at the 3rd-down distance from which the DEF can't play 100% pass.

I hope you're following my logic here. If you don't here's my reasoning in a nutshell:

Smith replacing Shaun Hill has led to more shotgun because Smith is more comfortable in shotgun.
Smith replacing Hill has led to a credible downfield passing threat because Smith has a better arm.
The shotgun is a pass-heavy formation.
Therefore, opposing DEF's cannot commit 8 or 9 guys to the box on running downs, or keep 9 or 10 guys within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage on passing downs.

The OL no longer has to face 8/9 defenders in the box on running plays or 10 defenders within 10 yards of the line on passing plays.
The OL can't run block to save their lives.
Therefore, the OL's weakness at run-blocking is nullified by not having a numbers disadvantage.

The OL now has a fighting chance of run-blocking successfully, which gives Raye more flexibility to call whichever type of play he feels is best.
Therefore, 1st down is no longer an obvious running down for the 49ers' OFF, and 3rd & mid is no longer an obvious passing down for the 49ers' OFF.

The 49ers' OFF has gotten better at running the ball overall, on 1st down, and on 3rd down.
The 49ers' OFF as a whole has gotten better at 3rd & mid.
Therefore, the combination of Smith replacing Hill and a Smith-induced increase in the 49er OFF's use of shotgun has led to a better rushing attack.

Chew that one for a minute along with your Thanksgiving leftovers.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - HOME/ROAD SPLIT

This is almost anti-climactic given what I've focused on so far, so I'll make it short. Here's how the OFF plays at home and on the road (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Home	Rank	Road	Rank	Difference	Rank
-18.8%	28	-1.7%	18	-17.1%	28

In this table, the Difference stat assumes that teams play better at home. Therefore, the table shows that the Niners' OFF plays over 15% better on the road than they do in Candlestick. Given their truly "offensive" performances at home vs. ATL, TEN, and CHI, this should come as no surprise. It's still interesting though, and makes me wonder why they suck so badly on OFF at home.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - SCORE GAP SPLIT

As I mentioned in the Formula for Success post yesterday, FO considers a game to be "close" when neither team has an 8-point lead or greater. Therefore, DVOA can be split into plays that occur while a team is losing big (i.e., by 8 or more), tied or losing small (i.e., by less than 8), winning small (i.e., by less than 8), and winning big (i.e., by 8 or more). Here are the score-gap splits for the 49ers' OFF (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Losing Big	Rank	Tied/Losing Small	Rank	Winning Small	Rank	Winning Big	Rank
29.7%	6	-25.2%	31	-10.2%	22	-50.4%	31

If you've been following the discussion this week on NN, you know exactly what I'm going to say here. Namely, the stats totally back up my argument. Similar to what Bill Walsh once said about Steve DeBerg, the Niners' OFF plays "just good enough to get you beat." When they're losing, they play balls to the wall until they get the game close, then can't finish the comeback. When they're winning, they totally take their foot of the pedal, and try to coast home for victory. The most enraging part of this table for me is their DVOA when winning big. As I've said before, being up by 8 or more before the 4th quarter is not a reason to simply shut down your OFF and expect to kill the last 20+ minutes of clock. For this year's Niner OFF, that's exactly what happens. Put the DVOA-while-losing and DVOA-while-winning ingredients together, and you have yourself the recipe for "5 losses by 7 points or less."

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - OVERALL

To me, the 49ers' OFF is the far juicier story both right now, and going forward, so I'm not going to dwell on the DEF's stats and rankings. Besides, the DEF's stats and rankings don't really seem to fluctuate that all each time I post them. Therefore, I'll just simply present them to you for your own edification, and provide very brief comments.

Here' how the defensive rankings look overall and by type of play (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

DEF	Rank	Pass	Rank	Run	Rank	Variance	Rank
-7.9%	6	-2.0%	11	-15.7%	5	8.2%	24
DEF VOA	Rank	Pass VOA	Rank	Run VOA	Rank
1.4%	16	13.4%	21	-14.2%	6

Two things. First, that 9.3% discrepancy between DVOA and VOA means that the Niners' DEF has faced some pretty good OFF's so far this season. Second, the 13.6% discrepancy between Pass Off DVOA and Pass OFF VOA means that the Niners' pass DEF, in particular, has faced some pretty good pass OFF's so far this season.

Here's the DEF's Game-by-Game DVOA chart:

Two things. First, notice that the range in performance for the Niners' DEF is 40% narrower than for the OFF (See OFF's chart above). Second, unlike the case with offensive units, the pass DEF and rush DEF seem to ebb and flow in unison, with their overall DEF DVOA always remaining somewhere in between the two.

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - DOWN SPLITS

Here are the DEF's pass and run DVOAs by down (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Down	DEF	Rank	Pass DEF	Rank	Run DEF	Rank
1st	2.4%	18	16.8%	20	-12.2%	13
2nd	-20.7%	3	-10.1%	7	-31.4%	4
3rd	-8.7%	11	-16.4%	11	15.5%	21

Only thing to mention here is that the 49ers' 3rd-down DEF has improved 22.7% and moved up 9 spots in the rankings since Week 7, mainly because their 3rd-down pass DEF has gotten 29.3% better.

Here are the DEF's down splits by distance (Short = 0-3 yards; Mid = 4-6 yards; Long = 7+ yards):

Distance	DEF	Rank	Short	Rank	Mid	Rank	Long	Rank
1st	2.4%	18	N/A
2nd	-20.7%	3	-23.5%	6	47.1%	30	-38.7%	2
3rd	-8.7%	11	-13.9%	5	-37.9%	6	33.8%	25

You won't remember this but, through 6 games, the DEF's 2nd & Short and 3rd & Short DVOAs were 10.1% (24th) and 24.5% (22nd), respectively. This means that, in the past 4 games, the DEF has gotten 33.5% better on 2nd & short (up 18 spots in the rankings) and 38.4% better on 3rd & short (up 17 spots in the rankings).

DEFENSIVE RANKINGS - HOME/ROAD SPLIT

Here's how the DEF plays at home and on the road (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Home	Rank	Road	Rank	Difference	Rank
-11.5%	3	-4.0%	12	7.5%	7

Pretty straightforward here. The Niners DEF plays better at home - shocker I know - and their home/road difference is near the top of the league.

OFFENSIVE RANKINGS - SCORE GAP SPLIT

Here are the score-gap splits for the 49ers' DEF (bold = top 8 in the NFL; italics = bottom 8):

Losing Big	Rank	Tied/Losing Small	Rank	Winning Small	Rank	Winning Big	Rank
-6.2%	13	-17.3%	2	0.2%	18	13.4%	21

Two things. First, the spread is a lot more uniform here, i.e., the Niners' DEF isn't systematically horrible in one score gap situation, but great in the opposite situation. Second, totally unlike the OFF, the DEF actually plays most efficiently when they're tied or down by 7 or less. In other words, when it comes to the 49ers completing comebacks, blame the OFF for failing to take the lead, not the DEF for failing to hold the game where it is.

BOTTOM LINE

I know that was a little longer than I anticipated, but I explained some things here that I won't be explaining in the future, and I kind of went on a little rant there in the OFF sections.

OK, so through 10 games, we can draw the following conclusions about the 2009 49ers:

Please, Jimmy, more shotgun!
Please, Jimmy, stop taking your foot off the gas when the game is close!
The jury's still out whether Smith is the answer as a passer, but the OFF at least looks like a competent NFL unit with him taking the snaps.
Don't blame the DEF for the 49ers' 4-6 record. They've played a brutal schedule, and they actually play great when the game is close.

Tomorrow: player stats and rankings.

*DVOA statistics used to produce this article were obtained from Football Outsiders.

Poll

For the 49ers' offense, which of the following do you think is the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT byproduct of using more shotgun?

Mike Singletary vs. Jack Del Rio - NFL Players and Coaches

Fooch — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 20:00:18 -0000

One of the interesting aspects of this game is that we'll be seeing two former players squaring off across the field. We all know about 49ers coach Mike Singletary's playing experience. Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio spent 11 seasons in the NFL as a linebacker, including one Pro Bowl season in 1994 with Minnesota. The list of current head coaches (no longer including recently fired Dick Jauron) includes:

Coach	Reg. Season Record	Yrs Played
Mike Singletary (SF)	9-10 (.474)	12
Jack Del Rio (Jac)	56-50 (.528)	11
Jim Zorn (Was)	11-15 (.423)	11
Ken Whisenhunt (Ari)	23-19 (.548)	9
Gary Kubiak (Hou)	27-31 (.466)	9
Jeff Fisher (Ten)	131-109 (.546)	5
Tom Cable (Oak)	7-16 (.304)	1
Sean Payton (NO)	34-23 (.596)	1

People speculate about players turning into coaches/managers in the various professional sports. In baseball it seems like great players often struggle as coaches/managers. Ted Williams was an amazing hitter, but it didn't really translate to coaching. One theory is that great players often struggle to pass along their information because they get frustrated by players who don't reach their level of excellence. It's also possible that it is something related strictly to baseball. Thoughts on this application to football?

Week 11 NFL Power Rankings and the 49ers

Fooch — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 18:00:13 -0000

Things are evening out in the rankings, even with the 49ers loss. We're one short this week (The Big Lead), so we're going after the jump right after the ESPN rankings. We've been submitting power rankings for SB Nation and I actually voted the 49ers 20th this week and last week. Last week's average ranking was 18, and this week the 49ers fell to 20th. Speaking of rankings, here is the current draft order (excluding yesterday's games). The 49ers are two spots ahead of the Panthers and would currently have the 11th and 13th picks.

ESPN - #20 (19) - Alex Smith has shown he can throw touchdown passes when his team is trailing by a wide margin. He needs to start faster.

Arizona - #5 (7)
Seattle - #25 (25)
St. Louis - #31 (30)

Fox Sports - #22 (22) - Like the Jets, the Niners are skidding after a fast start to the season. To their credit, five of their six losses have come vs. teams at .500 or better ... so they're not losing to garbage teams, and they've normally stayed in the game (five of their six losses by a TD or less).

Arizona - #11 (11)
Seattle - #25 (24)
St. Louis - #29 (29)

CBS Sports - #23 (23) - They can forget the playoffs now. The rest of the season is about finding out if Alex Smith is the long-term answer at quarterback.

Arizona - #8 (10)
Seattle - #25 (24)
St. Louis - #30 (29)

Pro Football Talk (via NBCSports.com) - #22 (19) - Even with five losses in six games, the Niners still have a realistic shot at finishing 9-7, given their schedule. But something tells us they won't.

Arizona - #6 (7)
Seattle - #28 (27)
St. Louis - #30 (30)

NFL.com (Brandt) - #23 (20)

Arizona - #6 (8)
Seattle - #24 (25)
St. Louis - #30 (29)

NFL.com (Brooks) - #21 (21)

Arizona - #8 (9)
Seattle - #26 (26)
St. Louis - #31 (28)

NFL.com (Carucci) - #22 (22)

Arizona - #6 (8)
Seattle - #23 (21)
St. Louis - #30 (28)

WhatIfSports.com - #15 (13)

Arizona - #9 (12)
Seattle - #26 (23)
St. Louis - #25 (24)

Average 49ers Ranking: 21.00 (19.89)
Average Cardinals Ranking: 7.38 (9.00)
Average Seahawks Ranking: 25.25 (24.33)
Average Rams Ranking: 29.50 (28.44)