SB Nation - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ON THIS DAY VIDEO- 11/11/1984 Bucs beat the NY Giants

Niko Houllis — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:00:27 -0000

Phil Simms.

Bill Parcells.

None of them could help, because overconfidence kills, especially when the other team has James Wilder in his prime.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually had a top 10 offense in 1984 with Steve Deberg at QB.

Check out the movie on how it all went down, On This Day.

Analysis: Packers (4-4) After 8 Games

Brandon — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:00:42 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

3 days ago: Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow (82) grabs a fourth-quarter touchdown pass as Green Bay Packers cornerback Charles Woodson (21) looks on during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009, in Tampa, Fla. The Buccaneers defeated the Packers 38-28. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Obviously the 1st half of the season ended badly with a loss to what was previously the last team without a win. Ex-Packer DT Gilbert Brown took some shots at Mike McCarthy this week, and former S LeRoy Butler says it's time for Mike to "turn the play calling over to Joe Philbin." Really? Philbin might be a heck of a guy, but he's primarily been an offensive line coach since 1986 and became a 1st time offensive coordinator in 2007. After watching the offensive line struggle this season, it's not exactly clear whether Philbin is doing a very good job himself.

Here's how they measure up statistically after the first 8 games compared to the rest of the league, rankings from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Packers	10	9	9	8

They're top 10 in every major statistical category. I would expect a winning record with those stats. For as bad as the offensive line has been this season, it sure hasn't stopped the offense from being productive. I'm not defending them, just pointing out that we can't just say the 4-4 record is all the offensive line's fault. There's something else going on here. More after the jump.

Let's compare them to three other teams, the unbeaten Colts and Saints, and the Cowboys. I think everyone would consider those three teams better than the Packers. Again rankings from NFL.com:

Team	Run Offense	Pass Offense	Run Defense	Pass Defense
Saints	5	4	19	16
Colts	29	1	14	9
Cowboys	8	6	12	20

According to Football Outsiders: all 3 teams have an offense in the top 5 (the Packers are at No. 8); the defenses of the Colts (No. 6 overall) and Saints (No. 4) are playing great (the Packers are No. 5), while the Cowboys are struggling with the No. 20 defense. The No. 29 run offense from the Colts sticks out like a sore thumb, but obviously their No. 1 pass offense is more than compensating for it. The official rankings don't take into consideration that the Saints lead the NFL in INTs, but their run defense really isn't very good anyway you look at it. And the official stats don't notice that the Colts have only allowed 4 TD passes this season.

My point is that the Packers seem to measure up well against 3 teams that have combined for 2 losses in their first 24 games.

Though one area I haven't addressed is special teams. The Packers are dead last by a comfortable margin, according to Football Outsiders. The 3 worst special teams games of the season have been against the Bengals, Vikings (at Lambeau), and Buccaneers; all losses. An easy answer might be it's the special teams fault, but good special teams play doesn't necessarily equal a winning football team. Currently the Browns have the best special teams unit in the NFL, while some winning teams like the Saints (No. 26), Broncos (No. 27), and Steelers (No. 30) aren't getting much from their special teams either.

But something else jumped out in those 4 losses this season: passing TDs allowed. The Packers have allowed 16 passing TDs this season, tied for 4th worst in the NFL. 12 of those have been given up in the 4 losses, and it has worked out exactly to 3 TDs in each game. The common theme in those 12 TD passes was the absence of the pass rush.

Another problem is that 10 of those 12 TD passes were for 15 yards or less. In theory it might be easier to cover in the red zone, where there is less field to cover, but that hasn't been the case this season.

Against the Bengals: TD passes of 5, 5, and 13 yards. If you watch the highlight of each TD pass on NFL.com, you'll see QB Carson Palmer dropping back with no pressure in his face as he steps up in the pocket and throws. On the final 2 TD passes, you'll also notice S Aaron Rouse standing around after the play, looking confused. Which is probably one reason why he was released a couple days later.

Against the Vikings (in Minneapolis): The first TD pass from the 1 yard line was asking for trouble (Favre ran one way then turned to throw across the field for the TD) but they got away with it. The 2nd one was a strike to WR Sidney Rice for 14 yards, and similar to the TD passes by Palmer, Favre dropped back in the pocket and then stepped up to throw with little pressure on him. The final TD was a 31 yard pass to Berrian on which S Derrick Martin played the wrong coverage, and he hasn't been seen playing defense since.

Against the Vikings (at Lambeau): The 12 yard TD pass to TE Visanthe Shiancoe had no pass rush again. The 51 yard TD pass was a fluke play where 3 Packers collided as they jumped for the ball, and Favre got away with throwing into triple coverage. The final 2 yard TD pass was a quick pass out into the right flat which the OLB couldn't get to.

Against the Buccaneers: A 6 yard TD pass that was a quick pass out into the right flat which the OLB couldn't get to. That play is something teams will try and exploit again since it worked in consecutive weeks. A 7 yard TD pass during which the Packers finally got some pass rush! DE Johnny Jolly broke free and collapsed the pocket, but LB Clay Matthews tried to go inside, so there was nobody outside to the left when QB Josh Freeman scrambled to throw a high arching pass to TE Kellen Winslow that only he could catch. On the final 7 yard TD pass, CB Jarrett Bush was fooled on a double move by a rookie WR into the right corner of the end zone. He could have gotten it if he hadn't been fooled, but Bush has been underwhelming us with his coverage skills for the past 3 seasons.

Some of those TD passes couldn't have been avoided. But on most of them, the QB had too much time to throw. The special teams and the offensive line have been bad this season, and the team would be a lot better if those units could get themselves turned around. But where they're losing games is on TD passes allowed in the red zone. What they really need is a pass rush, especially up the middle (paging Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji), to turn the opponent's red zone opportunities into FGs or stops.

Armaggedon 2009 (or, the War of 18 and 12) : Just how evenly matched are the Patriots and Colts

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:16:43 -0000

More photos » by AJ Mast - AP

3 days ago: Indianapolis Colts linebacker Clint Session runs the ball after intercepting a pass from Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub in the fourth quarter of an NFL football game in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. The Colts won 20-17. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

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For all the hoopla the New Orleans Saints are getting (and rightly so) for their 8-0 start, the reality is that, statistically, the Patriots and the Colts are more impressive. And while it is no en vogue for people like Buccaneers coach Raheem Morris to proclaim "Statistics are for losers," the reality is stats tell us an awful lot about how good a team will likely be moving forward.

Small side note: Anyone else find it both pathetically and ironically funny that Morris, who is 1-7 as a head coach, would proclaim that "statistics are for losers." Speaking of losers, Morris will be lucky if he keeps his job at the end of this season.

The Saints sport the league's best offense, averaging nearly 38 points per game, which is, of course, INSANE! However, their defense is surrendering 21 points per game, ranking them 19th in the league. But while the Saints appear free-wheelin' and high-flyin', the Patriots and Colts seem much more balanced as football teams and, therefore, much more dangerous.

New England sports the #2 scoring defense in football, surrendering 14 points a game. Their offense scores 28 points per game (#3 in the league). Indy trots out the #1 scoring defense, giving up just 13 points per game, and an offense that scores 27 points per game (#6 in the league).

If we Colts fans know anything it's that great offense with mediocre-to-bad defense can only take you so far in this league. Eventually, you will run into a team that will stall your offense. When that happens, your defense must have the talent and the coaching to win the game for your team. For the Pats and Colts, they seem to have the kind of defensive talent to stop opposing teams, which is incredible considering the Pats are without Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschi, Rodney Harrison, and Richard Seymour this year. Meanwhile, the Colts are without Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, Ed Johnson, and Tyjuan Hagler. Yet, they still shut people down.

Again, balance on offense and defense can make a football team dangerous, and this Sunday two very dangerous teams will face off in what hopefully will be a great game.

For more, check out Marima's FanShot.

Congratulations Lee Roy Selmon!

Niko Houllis — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:00:16 -0000

Selmon 63

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No other player ever has, nor ever will, wear number 63 for the Bucs. Thats because he was the first player ever chosen by the Bucs so hes the first to wear 63 and the last! Not even MIke Alstott has his number officially retired. That ceremony was just for his retirement, and the presentation of his jersey. However, the Glazers may be up to something in the future, as no one has worn 99, 47, 55 or 40 since those Bucs that made the numbers famous did. Come to think of it, number 42, worn by Ricky Bell, was only briefly taken in the late 80s. It hasnt been used in some time.

Lee Roy was joined on the field Sunday as he was on the field in 1977 by his brother Dewey Selmon who wore 61 first then 58 later. Dewey Selmon played linebacker on the '79 NFC Central Division Championship team with Lee Roy, and was quite emotional pregame on the field. Now we can turn to some of the other members of the Bucs who would look good up there next to him.

At any rate, there was no debating who belonged in first, and just in case there are doubters....he is a brief case made for Lee Roy by video.

A "Brownie" For Your Thoughts - "Rookie" Post

SpecialBrownie — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 05:52:51 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

3 days ago: Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford leaves the field after throwing an interception that was returned for a touchdown by Seattle Seahawks' Josh Wilson in the fourth quarter during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009, in Seattle. The Seahawks won 32-20. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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Welcome to a whole new segment on DBN, appropriately titled, A Brownie For Your Thoughts. This is a segment that will be ran once or twice a week and will talk about more off topic football stories. An example would be my uniform fanpost of a week or so ago. I will talk about an idea that has ran across my ever free flowing imagination, speak my own opinion on the subject and ask for all of yours in the comments. I hope you all enjoy it and receive it well!

Now, the title Rookie Post, is an allegoric title. While this may be my own rookie post, it is also a post on how rookies should be brought up in the NFL. Should rookies be thrown in or should they be taught on the sidelines for a period of time? Maybe there is no control when a rookie starts in a NFL game. I'll examine the possibilities...

I have thought of three ways a rookie can be brought up in the NFL, but only two of them can be considered valid choices by a head coach. "Plug and Play" Rookie starter, "Apprentice Rookie starter and "Injury Forced" Rookie starter.

1. "Plug and Play" Rookie Starter - A "Plug and Play" starter, or PaP for short, is what I consider to be when a coach decides to start a rookie in the very first game of the season. Examples of this can be seen with Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions or Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets. A lot goes into a PaP starter. How well did they perform in college? How desperate is the team for production and notoriety? Will the rookie get injured?

To save space, we'll just use Matthew Stafford for example purposes.

How well did Stafford perform in college?

Stats Overview	Passing
YEAR	CMP	ATT	YDS	CMP%	YPA	LNG	TD	INT	SACK	RAT
2006	135	256	1749	52.7	6.83	53	7	13	12	108.99
2007	194	348	2523	55.7	7.25	84	19	10	15	128.92
2008	235	383	3459	61.4	9.03	78	25	10	17	153.54

Check.

How desperate is the team for production and notoriety? Detroit Lions 0 - 16 in 2008. Check.

Will the rookie get injured? Stafford missed two games due to a knee injury. Sadly, Check.

PaP conclusion: Essentially, Stafford matches every boundary for a PaP starter, which he was amazingly. The Lions however, are 1 - 7. Stafford has a 5/12 TD to INT ratio and has a 55.9 rating. Now, many other factors play into this but ultimately, a PaP is a high risk/ high reward starter. So far, Stafford has not played out for the Lions. Then again, it is only Week 9 of the 2009 season. Personally, I've never been one for a PaP starter. I feel like you're throwing them to the "Lions" (Do - Do - Do - Chzzz). I agree more with the next type of Rookie starter...

"Apprentice" Starter - This one is short, sweet and opinionated. An "App" starter is one who sits by on the sidelines, learns from successful or smart veterans and is inserted into a starting role when prepared or at least more knowledgeable than a PaP starter. How can this be proven? It really can't; this is a low risk/ high reward approach. You don't know if any factors will change from a PaP starter but what's it going to hurt? Your rookie learns NFL experience before he experiences it. It can only help.

Let's look at Josh Freeman, another 1st Round rookie QB starter. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 0 - 7 until Freeman was named the starter for Week 8 against the Green Bay Packers. The first game Freeman was named starter, the Bucs won for the first time in the 2009 season! Freeman has a 3/1 TD to INT ratio and has a satisfying 83.2 rating. It's only been one game though so, really, who knows. Freeman seems to prove my un - provable point though.

App conclusion - LOW RISK/ HIGH REWARD. While you really don't satisfy the fan base or FO by holding back a high profile rookie, you let them learn from seasoned veterans who already know how to handle themselves in a NFL game. I see no real negatives to this approach all except for the negative notoriety. That will change though, once that studying rookie starts winning games.

"Injury Forced" Starter - This one can't be controlled by anyone. More specifically, this type of starter comes about when the starter above them goes down with an injury for at least one game, forcing the 2nd string rookie to start. This type can't be proven either since it can't be chosen. This one won't have a conclusion, just an explanation and example. It's basically a spontaneous split of the two "coach option" starters. As the 2nd string rookie, you're an App Rookie. Once the veteran above you goes down, said rookie morphs into a PaP Rookie, you have to go in regardless of knowledge or preparedness.

We'll use Kaluka Maiava for this example. Maiava had to come in for D' Qwell Jackson during the Pittsburgh Steelers game and started against the Green Bay Packers the week after. In both games combined, Maiava had a total of 10 tackles and one forced fumble. For an inside linebacker, those are decent stats for a span of two games. But who knows if he was even ready for the unexpectedness of Jackson's injury (he shouldn't have been, unless he planned it.) Maybe he'll get better challenging fellow rookie LB David Veikune for a starter spot or working beside veteran David Bowens. Who knows.

Well, there you go. My first ever post on my new segment. If you want, tell me how I did, critique me so the next post can be better. But please, above all else, TELL ME HOW YOU FEEL. Do you agree with these three types of rookies? Are there more types? Less? Please argue, agree and discuss. Thanks for reading and... GO BROWNS!

P.S. I will also be running the Power Rankings post which collects the Cleveland Browns power rankings from notable websites around the internet. It will usually be posted on Tuesdays or Wednesdays with "Brownie Thoughts" usually on Thursdays or Fridays.

ENTER The Bucs Final Record Prediction Contest!

Niko Houllis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:38:24 -0000

The actual Wembley 120 Page Program ( Or Programme) is yours if you can figure out the Bucs!

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The Prize? One authentic Bucs Patriots program from Wembley Stadium. This is the real deal...via the country on the other side of the pond, this is the program from our last home game! It's truly brilliant with stunning high gloss print, and is no doubt already a collectors item.

All you have to do is simply come up with the best prediction of what the Bucs will do from now until the end of the season, as in Number of wins, where they will draft, and if they win the last game at home over the Falcons.

Read on how to win...

So you need to guess the Bucs final record at the end of the season. They are 1-7 right now, what pick the Bucs will be given in round one, (This is not where they will end up picking but what spot they will be assigned due to records; in other words if they are 5th, and trade down and you picked 10th, that wont change anything. Its the 5th), then tell us if you think the Bucs will win the last game of the Season, January 3rd, Atlanta at Tampa Bay.

When you Pick the Bucs record make sure its the Total record. Not just that you think they will go 3-6 rest of the way, but 4-12 total and what spot they will end up with in the draft.

Lastly, Will the Bucs Win or Lose their last game of the year Home game vs Falcons of Atlanta? Choose Win or Loss.

If you do any of the steps wrong, if it comes down to that tiebreaker, your out !

So all together, a prediction on the season (9-7), What pick in the draft the Bucs will get (32nd) , and will they win the last game of the year home vs Atlanta ( WIN)

9-7, 32nd Pick, Win

Thats how it should look. Please Submit your entry by 12:01 Sunday Afternoon by putting a comment in this Post.

ALL Bucem Personnel except myself are eligible since this is not a contest we have to choose the winner.

Program will be mailed out after the winner is announced.

The Juxtaposition of Reality and Hope

LeeCaz — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 22:21:45 -0000

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Now that we’ve all come down from the high that goes along with such a big win, I thought we would initiate a little reality check before the Miami game. Now many will say that I am being a negative Nancy, but don’t get it twisted, I was screaming along with all the other Buccaneers fans on Sunday at RayJay. In fact my throat is still sore, and no, it’s not from eating all that crow as Bucem user Danny 180 so eloquently put it yesterday. The fact of the matter is, that despite the first and long awaited win, there are many problems that still plague this team. As the resident pessimist here on Bucem, I feel that it is my duty to point out these disturbing trends and recognize them for what they are, a detriment to winning more games. Read all about it after the jump...

I won’t get into Freeman’s play. It has already been discussed quite a bit over the past couple of days. I will simply say that I was more than happy with his first outing. It was extremely surprising, and I hope that he can continue to perform at a high level.

With all of that being said, here are 5 things that concern me going into Miami this week.

1. Our linebackers inability to cover the short to intermediate routes. Is it just me or does it seem like every time the opposing team needs to convert a 3^rd and short that all they have to do is run some type of crossing route right past the first down marker. Our young linebackers are constantly getting torched on these type of routes. Hayes and Black have shown promise at some points this season, and they are both undersized and fast. Logic would lead you to believe that this fact would translate into them being better than average in pass coverage, not worse. Odds are that one or both of them will be back on the special teams unit next season. This leads me to my next point.

2. Barrett Ruud. What’s his deal? He is currently tied for 6^th in the NFL with 68 total tackles. This stat actually seems pretty good, until you take into consideration that our defensive "scheme" is designed to filter everything back towards the middle of the field, where Ruud will clean everything up. I was more than a little surprised to see Ruud get absolutely trucked on the goal line Sunday by none other than…… Aaron Rodgers? I don’t know if his contract situation has got him down in the dumps or what, but in my opinion he is a shadow of his former self. He just seems to lack any fire while on the field. Are we going into the offseason looking for two or three new linebackers?

3. The secondary’s bad habit of giving up the big play, especially early. Luckily we were able to quickly answer the 74 yard TD pass given up to James Jones on their second play from scrimmage. Is it just too much to ask that these guys get some safety help every now and then? The refusal of Bates to adjust his scheme in regards to the secondary is extremely frustrating. Every time the opposing QB is looking downfield I find myself holding my breath and praying that they make a bad throw. Now, it is a given that the defensive line hasn’t done the secondary many favors, but they actually had a decent game on Sunday, dragging Rodgers down for six sacks. The fact that we held the vaunted Green Bay aerial attack to 234 yards is all for naught when you give up one or two big plays. It only takes one as they say. Talib and Jackson are the lone bright spots in the secondary. Talib is currently tied for 2^nd in the NFL with 5 interceptions on the year. At least we’re competitive in something I suppose.

4. Before we start handing out awards to the defensive line, let’s examine the porous run defense. They are still allowing opposing running backs to get through to the second level far too often. Green Bay, who is not exactly known for running it down anyone’s throat, managed to put up a startling 170 yards rushing on us, for 5.3 yards per rushing play. This does not bode well for the game this week vs. the "Wildcat" (A clichéd term that I could honestly go the rest of my life without hearing and still hate it). I don’t think it would be out of the realm of possibility that Miami puts up 300 rushing yards on us. Let’s just say that serious adjustments need to be made in practice this week, or we mightbe covering our eyes by the 3^rd quarter.

5. The kicking game. Dirk Johnson punted a ball on Sunday that I honestly think went about 25 yards. It wasn’t even high. I can kick it further than that consistently. The return teams have been doing a phenomenal job all season. Heck, the guys covering Johnson’s punts should love him, they don’t have to run nearly as far as they would with a real NFL punter. He needs to go. There has got to be someone better out there than him. Barth made one and missed one. As I watched him miss the 45 yard FG on Sunday, I remember thinking to myself that maybe it’s not such a great idea that we picked up a guy that got cut by the Kansas City Chiefs. He did make his 38 yarder. As a fan, I appreciate the fact the team is bringing in new guys who can hopefully get the job done, but isn’t there anyone out there better than these guys?

Like I said at the beginning of the post, I appreciate Sunday’s win vs. Green Bay just as much as any other fan. But now that I’ve got a taste of winning, I want more, lots more, and that isn’t going to happen unless something is done to address the issues above. Some of these things are probably not fixable during the rest of the season. Some of them are. All I ask is that the team takes steps to fix what is wrong.

I’m excited to watch the rest of the season now. Freeman showed me something last week, and I hope that it was a standard to which I can expect from him every week. The defense and special teams showed up in a huge way. Opinions differ on just how many wins Raheem needs in order to keep his job, but even with just this one, I think he may have bought himself another year. Whether or not that will be a good thing remains to be seen, but for the first time in a long time, I feel the slightest twinge of hope creeping up my spine.

On This Day Recap- 11/10/1996

Niko Houllis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:36:13 -0000

The Bucs never really looked back after this; the first of what is now 6 straight home wins in Orange uniforms.

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We talked about this last week, what really turned around the Bucs under Dungy. This game was the second win of the season, and this game started the winning streak. While most consider that the win over San Diego was the start of it all because it ended a terrible streak of poor performances on the west coast. I tend to agree, but it all started here the week before, when Cole Ford missed a FG that would have won it for the Raiders in regulation.

The Bucs had held the last several teams to under or at 13 points, so the signs were there for a turn around. As I said, this 2009 team is not quite there defensively, we dont have all the pieces like that '96 team did.

But one way or another, the change started, On this day.

Video (HD) of 1979 Bucs Reception/Tour/Throwback Game

Niko Houllis — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 21:00:33 -0000

As most of you know, I was invited as special guest to attend the Saturday Night reception for the 1979 Bucs. The Glazers spared no expense on this one, let me tell you. Flying in were most of the members of the team and their families. At the end of the night it became apperant we were very special to be there, as NO members of the press were invited, just Bucs players and family.

So I would like to share this with anyone who is interested.

Some things to look for...

Thats assistant coach Tom Bass in the wheelchair, architect of McKays 3-4 defense. Wayne Fontes would become the D coordinator in the 80s.
Lee Roy Selmon had no less than 10 family members at the event.
In the Weight Lifting room, those are garage type doors that lift up so players can feel like they are working out in the elements if they feel in the mood to do so.
Where Ed Glazer addressed the Bucs, that was the room they use for BIG press conferences, like Morris and Dominik being announced, Alstott retirement, etc. The second room you see is the press conference room you see after the game.

The 49ers RT: Niners Nation looking into the Future

Andrew Davidson — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:03:54 -0000

Quick Note: I wrote this article prior to this past weekend's heart breaking loss to the Titans. The fact that we are 3-5 doesn't mean we should give up on the season, and focus on the offseason, I just wanted to get some names out there that we can track through out the remainder of the season.

Things can't get much worse (at RT) in Ninerland with Tony Pashos being out for the season. While Pashos didn't get a lot of time to get comfortable in the offense, it leaves the 49ers with plenty of problems heading forward at the RT position. We get to see just how good Adam Snyder can be in an everyday role from here on out, without someone breathing down his neck for playing time. You can thank Joe Staley's injury for that, as Barry Sims is our starting LT. I'd be much happier discussing the notion of Sims and Snyder rotating at RT than having both guys as our starting OTs. The team may get a chance to see what Alex Boone has, but I think long term wise, Boone is depth at OL and not a future starter.

With two drafts picks in the 2010 first round, the 49ers will likely have a chance to land one of the better OTs in the class. On top of that, there are three potential free agents at RT that could interest the 49ers. It depends on how much of a splash the 49ers want to make, and how well the players will perform through out the remainder of the season. I'm going to take a look at those 3 free agent possibilities, and also run down the Top 6 OT prospects. Also, if you haven't checked out Drew K's fanpost, do so, because he's got the entire draft class ranked. While it may be too early for some to start thinking about next year's draft, it's never too early to track the talent of future 49ers.

I'll be following the three potential Free Agent RTs, as well as the top 6 OT prospects, but I encourage you to do the same. I'm also curious to know if Niners Nation would rather see the team draft the "Right Tackle Of The Future" or sign him via free agency. Again, we've got two first rounders, and I'd love to see an edge rusher come out of that round, but I'll never be unhappy when the team finally decides to spend a draft pick to bolster our LOLine. Spending money on a RT is risky, and there's only one guy I'd really love to see the team sign - in other words, if they don't get him, I'd rather they go address it in the draft.

After the jump Atlanta's Tyson Clabo, Tampa Bay's Jeremy Trueblood and Philadelphia's Winston Justice, followed by a rundown of some of the offensive tackle draft prospects...

Football Outsiders Note:

Adjusted Line Yards (ALY): Statistic which attempts to, even to a small extent, separate the ability of a running back from the ability of the offensive line. Adjusted Line Yards begin as a measure of average rushing yards per play by running backs only, adjusted in the following way:

0-4 yards: 100% strength

5-10 yards: 50% strength

11+ yards: not included

runs for a loss: 120% strength

Each play is also adjusted based on game situation as well as quality of opponents faced. Adjusted Line Yards can be listed as total or broken down by direction to attempt to isolate ability of specific linemen. [The full explanation is here at FO]

The Free Agent Right Tackles

1. Tyson Clabo, RT, Atlanta Falcons - I wasn't too vocal about it this past offseason, but I wanted Clabo to sign with the 49ers badly. Clabo was a Restricted Free Agent, and I would've been more than happy to see the 49ers give up a draft pick to get a beast RT like Clabo. In Atlanta's power run game offense, this guy is a mauling run blocker and started all 16 games in 2008. Clabo took the job over 5 games into the 2007 season and has 34 career starts at RT after Week 8. On to some rushing stats...

The Falcons run 24% of their run plays to the right side, in Clabo's direction (RT - 13%, RE - 11%). Atlanta's Adjusted Line Yards on the runs to the RT are 4.4 (12th in the NFL); the runs to the RE are 5.66 (4th in the NFL). On the left side of the line (which they run a total of 26%), the LT (15%) averages 3.52 (20th) while the LE (11%) averages 5.35 (7th). In english, The Falcons have greater success running at the right side despite the similar frequency in plays run compared to the left side. The success of runs to LE & RE are a testament to how well the Guards can pull, and how well the Tight Ends can block.

Atlanta also has an 82% power success (3rd) and just a 17% stuffed rate (6th); they have a low 19% 10+ yards plays. This trend indicates that the Falcons rely on their Offensive Line to get the running game going, and don't depend on the RBs to break off bigs to help boster the rush attack. For example, the 49ers have a 37% 10+ yards rate proving that our LOLine is banking on Gore to rip off the runs. In conclusion, the Falcons have a dominant O-Line and the better part of that dominance is in Clabo's direction. While Atlanta is just 17th in the NFL in rush yards per game, it's not because the big RT isn't doing his job.

Bottom Line: Tyson Clabo is a beast and would be a great RTOTF for this franchise. Back a dump truck up to his house in the offseason and pay the guy. Atlanta would be wise to extend this player before the 2010 FA period begins, let's hope they do not. Age: 28, Height: 6'6, Weight: 314

2. Jeremy Trueblood, RT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - What can I say about Trueblood, who seems to be an underrated RT on an otherwise terrible Buccaneers football team. The Tampa Bay big fella started all 16 games in both 2007 and 2008, and 13 in his 2006 rookie season. His total games started at RT after week 8 now sit at 52, and he's two years younger than Clabo. Trueblood is schedule to be an Unrestricted Free Agent should the Bucs not sign him before the FA period begins in 2010. Let's look at Trueblood's juicy stats...

Tampa runs 20% of their rush attempts to the right side in Trueblood's direction (10% RT, 10% RE). The Bucs have the 4th ranked ALY at RT averaging 5.18, while averaging 1.74 at RE (ranked 30th). To the left side of the line, Tampa Bay runs 19% (11% LT, 8% LE) and has the best ALY to LT at 5.78, but the 30th to LE at 2.69. Despite having the 24th ranked rush offense in yards per game, Tampa has great success running at the tackles, but also lacks the help of a solid blocking Tight End (see: Kellen Winslow).

The Buccaneers do not boast a high power success rate, sitting 22nd in the league at 60%. Their 20% rate of 10+ yard plays has them ranked 12th while a 24% stuffed rate is "good" for 28th in the league. There aren't exact numbers to back up this claim, but the fact that Tampa Bay has the 31st ALY (3.03) in the Middle/Guard direction leads me to believe most of the stuffs aren't coming at the RT or LT's expense. I'm concluding that the Buccaneers are solid at the tackle positions, but need improvement in the interior line (and Kellen Winslow stinks at blocking). In other words, Jeremy Trueblood is worth looking at come FA time in 2010, and certainly worth tracking the rest of way in 2009.

Bottom Line: If/when the Falcons re-up with Clabo, I would have no complaints about seeing Jeremy Trueblood join the 49ers O-Line in 2010. He's durable, he's reliable, and he's huge. I may actually endorse this signing more than Clabo based on contract value, but Clabo is such a mean, angry, mauling beast. Age: 25, Height: 6'8, Weight: 320

3. Winston Justice, RT, Philadelphia Eagles - Justice is on this list because of his smooth transition from LT to RT in 2009. For the better part of 2007 and 2008, Justice was an ineffective LT on the verge of being labelled a bust. The Eagles 2006 draft missed his entire rookie season and never got acclimated to the position as a pro. Enter 2009, where Justice has emerged as a pleasant surpise starting all 7 games at RT for the Eagles. By all appearances, Justice looks the part of an NFL-caliber starting RT. The reflection of Justice in statistics...

Perhaps Justice has been pleasing the Eagles because they only run plays to RT at 7%, but the team runs to RE at 21%; that's 28% that the Eagles team is running in Justice's direction. Comparatively, Philadelpha runs to the left side 28%, the difference being 14% at LT, and 14% at LE. In terms of Adjusted Line Yards, the Eagles are fairly mediocre with a 3.61 average running towards RT (26th), and 3.7 at RE (18th). Plays directed towars the LT are much more effective at 4.61, good for 5th in the league; Philly's LE rate is middle of the pack, averaging 4.08 (16th). Winston Justice isn't the best lineman on the team, but he's certainly not terrible.

The Eagles have the 14th ranked rushing attack in the NFL averaging 115.4 yards per game, quite impressive considering the nagging injury problems that plague Brian Westbrook. Even more impressive is Philadelphia's 83% power success (2nd in the league) combined with a 24% runs of 10+ yards (7th in the league). The Eagles also have the league's 2nd ranked stuffed percentage, which is pretty stellar 14%. While Justice's numbers aren't quite as impressive, it definitely shows that the team's O-Line is successful as whole, thanks in part to Justice's play at RT. If it came down to Justice being a targeted FA acquisition, it would mean both Clabo and Trueblood are off the market.

Bottom Line: If does come down to Justice as a FA target, I think I'd rather have the team address RT in the draft. Not that Justice's play isn't impressive, his 7 total starts at RT (and likely 16 by year's end) don't justify a big FA deal in my opinion. Age: 24, Height: 6'6, Weight: 320

Note: All RB % and ALY stats provided by FootballOutsiders.com; All games started data provided by PFR & CBS; All Team Rushing Date provided by TeamRankings.com; All stats are based on statistics prior to this past weekends games.

The Offensive Tackle Draft Prospects

Note: All due respect to the potential underclassmen, but for the purposes in this list, I'm going with strictly seniors who will be in the 2010 draft undoubtedly. My apologies to Bruce Campbell (Maryland), Bryan Bulaga (Iowa), and Anthony Davis (Rutgers). Click on Scouting Report to get a deeper look at each prospect.

1. Russell Okung, Oklahoma State, Scouting Report - Projected Pick*: Top 5, Projected 40yd Dash*: 5.22, Height*: 6'5 Weight*: 305

The Rundown: Starting LT for the OSU Cowboys, and arguably the top OT prospect in the draft. Some underclassmen could dethrone Okung, but it's likely that the first OL off the board in 2010 will be Okung. The Cowboys have rushed for 20 TDs this season, and QB Zac Robinson has been sacked just 5 times in 228 pass attempts (through 9 games). Texas fans may scream about Okung being a cheapshot artist, but check this video out and see him simply toss Freshman Alex Okafor to the turf (before he takes a crack at Keenan Robinson). Doesn't every lineman need a nasty streak? Yep. The 49ers will likely have to trade up in the draft to get Okung, and Staley would have to move back to RT in such a scenario. Since Okung has very few flaws in his game, the Niners would possibly have to acquire the Number 1 selection (and his talents are much deserving of that slot).

2. Charles Brown, Southern California, Scouting Report - Projected Pick: Top 20, Projected 40yd Dash: 5.06, Height: 6'6 Weight: 296

The Rundown: Another LT prospect, Brown is the starter for the USC Trojans. I think the idea that Brown is a Top 20 pick is certainly debatable, but not far-fetched either. He'll likely have to bulk up when he makes the transition to the pro game as he may be too "svelt" to be an NFL-caliber LT. The Trojans QBs have been sacked 11 times in 225 pass attempts, while the team has rushed for 18 TDs (through 8 games). I found this video on Youtube, that takes a glimpse into Brown's HS coach and the relationship they developed. To say the very least, Brown seems like a professional and off the field issues seem highly unlikely. I can definitely see the 49ers selecting Brown in the late teens, early twenties in the draft, and asking him to make the switch to RT at the next level.

3. Trent Williams, Oklahoma, Scouting Report - Projected Pick: Round 1-2, Projected 40yd Dash: 5.27, Height: 6'5 Weight: 315

The Rundown: While Williams is the starting LT for Oklahoma, it's very likely he'll be a RT for which ever NFL team drafts him. The Sooner had an extremely productive 2008 season, but opted to remain in college for his senior season. In 2008, Williams played RT, which will help him if he has to make the switch back in the pros. The Sooners on the season have rushed for 12 TDs and allowed 7 sacks in 298 pass attempts (through 8 games). One knock on Williams is that he doesn't have enough nastiness when run blocking, which hopefully can be addressed by pro coaches. It's likely that the 49ers would have to reach for Williams in round 1, and not be high enough in Round 2 to have a shot at him (well assuming the 49ers don't fudge the mattress the rest of the way).

4. Ciron Black, Lousiania State, Scouting Report - Projected Pick: Round 2, Projected 40yd Dash: 5.27, Height: 6'5, Weight: 320

The Rundown: Black is the starting LT for the LSU Tigers, but is another prospect that will likely end up as RT in the NFL. He also has the versatility to play guard, which will make him no worse than a second round draft choice in my opinion. Black is a powerful run blocker, but struggles in pass protection at times (sounds like he'll fit right in). The Tigers have allowed QB Jordan Jefferson to be sacked 23 times in 210 pass attempts, and have 12 Rush TDs in nine games thus far. After passing up on Phil Loadholt last year, I'll find it hard to agree with the 49ers passing on Black if he's available when the Niners are on the clock in Round 2. While I love the extra 2010 first rounder, it's time to address RT before the 2011 offseason.

5. Jason Fox, Miami, Scouting Report - Projected Pick: Round 2, Projected 40yd Dash: 5.10, Height: 6'6, Weight: 310

The Rundown: Ok, so the trend stops from being college LT = NFL RT in this case, as Fox is the starting LT for the Hurricanes, and projects as an NFL LT. In fact, Fox has been Miami's starting Left Tackle since his freshman season. Miami's QB Jacory Harris has been sacked 25 times in 264 pass attempts through nine games, and the team has rushed for 15 TDs. Since Fox is likely to be an NFL LT, it would be hard to see the 49ers take him. Should Black be off the board in Round 2, but Fox is ripe for the picking, it would be wise at that point for the 49ers to entertain trade offers. That is, unless the team was absolutely comfortable having Joe Staley move back to RT in order to shift a second round rookie in the starting LT role.

6. Selvish Capers, West Virginia, Scouting Report - Projected Pick: Round 3-4, Projected 40yd Dash: 4.91, Height: 6'6, Weight: 289

The Rundown: Capers is the Mountaineers starting RT, while some scouts envision him as a possible NFL LT. By the time he's drafted and ready to suit up, it's likely he'll remain in his natural position. However, should a team be able to land him in round 4, it's easily a possibility that an NFL team try and convert Capers to LT. The West Virginia spread offense has seen QBs sacked 12 times in 251 pass attempts, while plundering opponents with 21 rushing TDs (9 games). If the Niners haven't addressed offensive tackle by round 3, they'd jump on Capers if he's available, and not bank on him slipping to Round 4. I don't think I can stress enough how important it will be for the team to get a RTOTF before the start of the 2010 season. And for fun (since I couldn't find any other videos), Capers waves a pretty mean flag.

* - projected data provided by WalterFootball.com (as of Oct. 24, 2009); NCAA team stats courtesy of Yahoo!; NOTE: The USC and Oklahoma games were not completed while this article was written.

That wraps up my first take on the 2010 offseason prospects at Right Tackle. While I'd certainly be happy with Tyson Clabo or Jeremy Trueblood coming over via free agency, it could be wiser to have the team draft it's big grinder. I'm wondering what Niners Nation thinks, should we sign a RT or draft a RT? Certainly we need a RT for 2010, there's no denying that (unless your Kool-Aid has cyanide in it).