SB Nation - Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans Place Defensive Tackle Jason Jones on IR

Jimmy — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 20:01:31 -0000

More photos » by John Russell - AP

Unfortunately this is a move that we have seen coming for about a week. The Titans went ahead and made it official today by placing DT Jason Jones on injured reserve according to @titansradio.

Jones has showed flashes of being really good when he has been out there, but he has been hampered by injuries in both of his seasons with the Titans. He is supposed to have shoulder surgery today, so hopefully he will be ready to go when the OTAs start this spring.

The only bright spot here is that 2009 2nd round pick Sen'Derrick Marks should be able to get plenty of reps down the stretch.

A little discussion about the 2009 Most Valuable Player Award

BigBlueShoe — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:59:06 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

23 days ago: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning reacts after he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne during the fourth quarter of an NFL football game against the New England Patriots in Indianapolis, Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009. Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 35-34. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

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I'm a Colts blogger. So, naturally, I'm going to tell you that Peyton Manning is the 2009 NFL MVP. And while there is the rather annoying sentiment out there that "They could give it to Peyton every year," the truth of the matter is the MVP award often goes to the best player in the NFL who also happens to be making a playoff run. If the MVP goes to any other sort of player, it cheapens the award; makes it nothing more than a popularity contest on par with the Pro Bowl, American Idol, and a local bar's wet tee-shirt contest.

And when you look through the numbers, the wins, and the overall play of the candidates, there is absolutely no doubt that, right now, Peyton Manning is the league's Most Valuable Player.

When judging candidates, you must first ask the following question: Are the players everyone is blabbing about making a playoff run? MVP candidates must make the playoffs. It's embarrassing if they don't. If you disagree, fine. You're clearly in the minority. In the history of the modern NFL, no MVP winner has missed the playoffs.

This means that if you are considering a player like Titans runningback Chris Johnson, the answer is no.

The Titans are done for 2009. If by some miracle they get in, it's because some other team choked and the Titans were lucky enough to back-in to post-season play. Doing this suggests that the faults of another team were the reason why the candidate is in the playoffs, and not the play of the candidate himself. Plus, in a monster game against the Colts last weekend, with a chance to climb out of a 0-6 hole and get back to .500, Chris Johnson was held out of the endzone all day with his longest run only accumulating 11 yards. That's not MVP play.

Thus, Chris Johnson (who is still the best RB in football, I might add) is out.

(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

The second thing you absolutely must cut out of the equation is sentimentality. This is an award for athletic excellence, not a lifetime achievement award. This is why I got so frustrated and annoyed with my own colleagues at SB Nation last year when half of them voted for Chad Pennington as Most Valuable Player.

Chad Pennington? Really?

The term "value" is not divorced from the term "good." And while Chad Pennington is certainly not a bad quarterback, you are a moron of truly epic proportion if you think Chad Pennington is as good a QB as Peyton Manning. In the case of my SB Nation colleagues, I think they forgot to include the "good" in with the "valueable."

This year, the sentimental pick is Brett Favre. Big Whigs like Peter King practically have their vote for Favre cast, regardless of what they are publicly writing. But even before his little stumble Sunday night in Arizona against the Cardinals, Favre was not a true MVP candidate. While there is no doubt that Favre's numbers are some of the best of his truly great career, the fact of the matter is the Vikings have played the kind of schedule that would make the UFL champion Las Vegas Locomotives look like world beaters. The Vikings have played the 25th toughest schedule in the league, with teams like the Lions (twice), Browns, and Rams all counted as wins on their schedule. Against two potential playoff contenders, the Steelers and the Cardinals, Favre has played some of his worst football. Both those games were on the road, and an MVP candidate must show that he can help his team win big games on the road.

Thus, Brett Favre (who is a truly amazing player, regardless of what the haters think or say) is out.

(AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

This leaves us with two truly viable candidates, and only two: Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints.

The MVP "race" is between these two gentlemen, and anyone suggesting otherwise is just wasting your time. Both are putting up amazing numbers. Both are QBs on teams that have yet to lose a game. But when you truly compare both candidates, the argument for Brees shrivels up and dies rather quickly.

Now, before we get into the details, please note that all of this goes out the window if and when the Colts start resting Manning once their playoff position is locked up. If the Colts start resting people going into the playoffs while the Saints continue to play starters in meaningless games, Drew Brees will indeed win the MVP. The press will love the Saints for "Going for Perfection" and reward them with an MVP vote for their QB.

(AP Photo/Rob Carr)

Does this kind of thing cheapen the MVP award? Yes, and the main reason why is the Saints (like the Vikings) have played a cupcake schedule. Also, with three of their last four games against the dreadful Buccaneers, the sorry Panthers, and the disappointing (and injured) Falcons, the prospects are very high of the Saints building big leads against these clubs early only to (shock!) rest starters in the second half of those games. Meanwhile, the Colts play the Broncos and Jaguars in back-to-back weeks. Both teams are currently in the playoff picture, but need to keep winning if they want to remain in. Following the Jags game, the Colts play the desperate New York Jets, who are still in playoff contention, but are on the outside looking in. So, that's three games against potential playoff teams with one or two of those games being utterly meaningless for the Colts.

However, regardless of whether the Colts will rest starters or not, Peyton Manning should indeed win his fourth (and NFL record setting) MVP award. The Colts have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Saints have played the 24th toughest. Indy also plays in the NFL's toughest division, with all four teams potentially ending the season with .500 or better records. In games against quality opponents like the Patriots, Ravens, Cardinals, Titans, Jaguars, Dolphins, and Texans, Peyton Manning has thrown for 2,750 yards, 20 TD, and 10 INTs.

Consider those numbers and then compare them to Brees, who has feasted on teams like the Bucs, Panthers, Bills, Rams, Redskins (who the Saints almost lost to), and Lions. Now, obviously, Brees cannot control the teams on the Saints schedule. However, when comparing candidates, especially two quarterbacks playing extremely well for two undefeated teams, you absolutely must take into account who they have played. So far, Manning trumps Brees in this area.

Manning is also currently leading the league in passing yardage (3,685 yards) as well as completion percentage (70%). The fact that Manning is doing all this with the #32 ranked rushing attack and (essentially) two rookie wide receivers is nothing short of astounding.

Overall, the MVP race should be an exciting one as we head into the home stretch for the 2009 regular season. And, unlike last year, laughably bad candidates (like Kurt Warner) are not polluting the competition for the award. But, at the end of the day, this award is Manning's. He has played better than Brees against better competition, and has shown an uncanny ability to do more with less around him.

If you have thoughts or other ideas on the MVP candidates, please add them to the comments below.

[UPDATE]: Be sure to check out DevilsReject's FanPost on the MVP race as well.

St. Louis Rams vs. Tennessee Titans Series at a Glance

Jimmy — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:00:39 -0000

The Rams lead the all-time series between these two teams 7-3. The last meeting was back in 2005 with the Rams winning 31-27. The last time the Rams came to Nashville was in 1999 in the game that I referenced in this post. There was obviously a famous game between these two teams that none of us really want to talk about.

For the second time in two weeks the game will be on FOX because an NFC team is visiting Nashville. The broadcast will be handled by Chris Rose and Trent Green. Green is a pretty famous Ram considering it was his preseason injury that paved the way for Kurt Warner to be the starting quarterback in 1999.

Info from the NFL after the jump.

	RAMS	TITANS
SERIES LEADER	6-3
STREAKS	3 of past 4
COACHES VS. OPP.	Spagnuolo: 0-0	Fisher: 1-2
LAST WEEK	L 17-9 at Bears	L 27-17 at Colts
LAST GAME	9/25/05: Titans 27 at Rams 31. St. Louis QB Marc Bulger passes for 3 TDs as Rams outlast Tennessee. Rams WR Torry Holt catches 9 passes for 163 yards, incl. 32-yard TD.
LAST GAME AT SITE	10/31/99: Titans 24, Rams 21. In preview of SB XXXIV, Titans QB Steve McNair throws 2 TDs & rushes for another as Tennessee improves to 6-1.
BROADCAST	FOX (3:05 PM CT): Chris Rose, Trent Green. Westwood One Radio: Howard David, Dan Reeves. SIRIUS: 151 (St.L.). XM: 113 (St.L.).

STATS

PASSING	Boller: 94-164-876-3-6-63.0	Young: 107-175-1,251-6-3-87.1
RUSHING	Jackson: 266-1,232 (1C)-4.6-4	Johnson: 244-1,509 (1L)-6.2-9 (T2C)
RECEIVING	Jackson (RB): 44-267-6.1-0	Johnson (RB): 39-322-8.3-1
OFFENSE	303.8	353.3
TAKE/GIVE	-6	-7
DEFENSE	363.7	367.3
SACKS	Little: 6.5	3 tied: 4
INTs	J. Butler: 3	Finnegan, Hood: 3
PUNTING	D. Jones: 46.4	Kern: 45.1
KICKING	Jo. Brown: 55 (13/13 PAT; 14/18 FG)	Bironas: 82 (25/25 PAT; 19/23 FG)

NOTES

GAME FEATURES NFL’s 2 leading rushers: Titans RB CHRIS JOHNSON (1,509) & Rams RB STEVEN JACKSON (1,232)…RAMS: Defeated Ten. in SB XXXIV (StL 23, Ten. 16)…QB KYLE BOLLER has 48 career TD passes & needs 2 to reach 50 for career…RB Jackson leads NFC with 1,232 rush yards. Had 112 rush yards last week & has 100+ yards in 5 of past 6. Has topped 1,000 yards for 5th season in row, passing HOFer ERIC DICKERSON for most in team annals. Has averaged 125.5 scrimmage yards per game since 2006, tops in NFL (6,527 yards, 52 games). In past 3 Dec. games, has 455 scrimmage yards (151.7 per game) & 2 TDs. Has rush TD in 4 of past 5…WR DONNIE AVERY has 5 TDs in past 8. KR-PR-WR DANNY AMENDOLA had 176 total yards (108 KR, 60 PR, 8 rush) last week…Rookie LB JAMES LAURINAITIS had 12 tackles last week. S OSHIOMOGHO ATOGWE had 2 FFs & FR last week. Has 15 INTs since 2007, tied for 4th most in NFL. DE LEONARD LITTLE has 6.5 sacks in past 10. Had sack in last meeting. DE CHRIS LONG has sack in 4 of past 5…TITANS: Club seeks 8th consecutive win vs. NFC…Aim for 4th win in row at home…Team ranks 2nd in NFL w/165.8 rush yards per game…QB VINCE YOUNG is 8-2 as starter against NFC. Young aims for 5th consecutive game w/TD pass…RB Johnson (1,509) needs 1 rush yard to surpass EDDIE GEORGE (1,509 in 2000) for 3rd-most rushing yards in season in franchise history. Johnson aims for 8th consecutive game w/100+ rush yards. Johnson averages 138 rush yards per game in past 3 against NFC (414 total). Johnson needs 1 rush TD to surpass career high of 9 as rookie in ’08…Rookie WR KENNY BRITT (Round 1, Rutgers) leads AFC rookies & ranks 4th among NFL rookies w/567 receiving yards. Britt aims for 4th consecutive game w/TD rec…TE BO SCAIFE (1,968 yards) needs 32 receiving yards to become 3rd TE in club history to reach 2,000 (FRANK WYCHECK, 4,958; ALVIN REED, 2,818). Scaife posted 1st TD of season last week…DE KYLE VANDEN BOSCH posted 2 sacks in last meeting vs. St.L.

The Dude Abides...The Stats That Don't Lie, Week 13

TJ Johnson — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

3 days ago: Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall (15) is chased by Kansas City Chiefs cornerback Travis Daniels (34) while running for a short gain during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

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"Stats washed over The Dude...darker than a black steer's tookus on a moonlight prairie night..." Sam Elliott

In almost every Hollywood movie there is a moment that comes, about three-fourths through the movie, in which the hero or heroin appears defeated. This moment is called the "dark moment," and if you're paying attention, it appears in almost all stories. The great mythologist, Joseph Campbell, wrote a book called The Hero With a Thousand Faces, in which he described the hero's journey, and briefly, the dark moment:

Beyond the threshold, then, the hero journeys through a world of unfamiliar yet strangely intimate forces, some of which severely test him...(page 246)

For modern day storytellers, this is the moment in which everything appears bleak and all is lost. In the greatest movie ever made, The Big Lebowski (Citizen Kane, stay down), the dark moment occurs when The Dude is drugged by Jackie Treehorn (don't ask me for the rest of the plot, or you'll be here for hours).

Why all this talk about dark moments? Week 13 of the NFL. Aside from the normal unlucky-number reference, week 13 in the NFL was a dark moment for many teams. Some of them still have the ability to break through this dark threshold (Ravens, Cowboys, and Patriots). Others are headed for the abyss (Titans, Texans, and Falcons).

In what could have been the darkest moment of the Broncos' season, they decided to summon some inner-strength, face their own December demons, and emerge battle-tested on the other side.

Welcome to another edition of the Stats That Don't Lie, your own weekly Hero With a 1,000 Stats. These are the stats that won't refuse the hero's call. They are your statistical elixir. As always they include Turnovers, Field Position, Time of Possession, and 3rd-Down Efficiency.

A little note before our we enter the fray. I've been asked why I use these stats and why not other stats that have an even higher correlation to winning, like passing yards/drive or point differential. Although I do spend time on these other stats, and they are extremely useful and predictive in nature, I'm not as interested in them at the individual game level as markers or plot points. That's because I'm still interested in a good story. And I've found the four stats that I keep track of--when told together--weave one hell of a story in a language most fans understand. And in the rare instances in which they don't, I'm even more interested in telling that compelling narrative. And it's during these times I can bring in other stats.

The View From High Up

Here I usually put up a graph showing the turnover margin from each game, but let's do something a little different this time. Let's also see what the games would have looked like if we included turnovers on downs:

The orange bars represent the recorded turnover margins. These are the turnover margins that include fumbles and interceptions. Notice that only the New England game did the Broncos lose the turnover margin and win the game. Previously, I "normalized" Orton's Hail Mary from that game to show an even-turnover margin. I decided to leave it in this week since a few comments have been made that I could just as easily "normalize" other types of interceptions like tipped balls, etc. While I think everyone would agree that a Hail Mary is in a different category altogether, there is some validity to the point. So I let it ride. It doesn't materially change the point, however. When the Broncos lose the turnover battle, they generally lose the game.

The blue bars represent the turnover margin to include turnovers on downs. This changes things only slightly, but it's an important distinction, and worth a few words. Some stats geeks have argued for decades that turnovers on downs should be included in the turnover statistics. The thinking is that no matter the method of turning the ball over (fumble, interception, or downs), it still has the same basic result: the drive is dead. Clearly, there is a higher value in an interception or fumble because of the inherent possibility of a score, but a turnover on downs stops your drive just the same.

Why do I bring this subject up this week? Because it helps explain the Denver-Kansas City turnover margin. From the box score, the turnover margin looks even. But everyone who watched the game can tell you that, in reality, the Chiefs came out in the 2nd half, in their own territory, and on 4th down, attempted a fake punt (which was open, by the way). There was a turnover on downs and Denver was sitting pretty inside the opponent's territory. This would have been no different than if an fumble or interception had occurred.

Later in the game, the Chiefs again went for it on 4th down and failed. When you add these two additional "turnovers" to the total, Denver came out of the game plus 2. This explains a lot (not all), and certainly helps to explain the larger margin of victory. As Paul Harvey would say, "And now you know the rest of the story."

There are other issues in the Broncos-Chiefs game to discuss, but we'll put those aside for the moment to get into the meat of the rankings.

Team Rankings

Here's where the Broncos stack up against the rest of the league after week 13. Keep in mind these are averages/game:

You will immediately notice I added another boon this week for your amusement and education (what else is there?). This week I included average turnover margin/game. There was a reason for this. I wanted you to be able to see the discrepancy between a good team and a team masquerading as a good team.

Two examples will drive the point home. First, notice New Orleans. While they are ranked only 14th with respect to giveaways/game, the are ranked 2nd when it comes to turnover margin. What does this mean? Simply that, although they are giving the ball away regularly, they are getting the ball back in spades. Conversely, let's look at the Dallas Cowboys. They are ranked 8th in giveaways/game, but 17th in turnover margin/game. So we can say the exact opposite about the Cowboys. They aren't giving the ball up (on average) as much as the rest of the teams are, but their defense isn't creating opportunities either. America's team? Only if Americans like facades.

The Broncos continue to get by with a rather pedestrian 3rd-downconversion rate, at 35.12%/game. The league average for all teams is through 13 weeks is 37.80%. While this will beat the Chiefs and the Raiders (maybe), it simply will not get it done against the Colts (more on this later) or in the playoffs--unless the defense simply dominates and turnovers continue to come Denver's way.

On the positive side, Denver is doing a better job with field position and their time of possession average increased since they played ahead the entire second half and killed the clock by running Moreno.

Notice who have taken over the top stop in giveaways. It's the team quarterbacked by Philip Rivers. Want to start a 7-game winning streak? Don't turn the ball over. Want to win some close game that you shouldn't? Don't turn the ball over. Want the mainstream media to anoint you a contender (go ahead and crown their @#%!) for the 100th time? Don't turn the ball over. After week 5, San-Diego was ranked 22nd in giveaways, averaging 1.67/game. Now they are ranked 1st with .91/game. They aren't measurably better all of the sudden (no one in the NFL is). They aren't David Blane or Criss Angel, or even Siegfried and Roy (well, perhaps they are that). It's just that they have stopped turning the ball over.

Also, please stop thinking that the Jacksonville Jaguars are a playoff team. Right now they are simply playing one on TV. Their average turnover margin/game is -.33, and let me pull out another stat on you--points differential. Jacksonville's current point differential is -48. That's right. A team with a winning record is -48. This trend can't continue. Their points/points allowed ratio is .83. Historically (over the last 25 years), this ratio suggests they are a 6-10 team. Since they already have 7 wins, they are playing with house money. I believe they are--in the immortal words of one of the finest poets of our generation--Kip Winger, "headed for a heartbreak."

Picking Super Bowl teams isn't really fun until Indianapolis and New Orleans lose, so let me throw out a few more controversial choices. How about the Green Bay Packers and the New England Patriots. Both teams rank very well in all four categories, and speaking of points differential, the Packers have a points/points allowed ratio of 1.41. The Patriots, despite all of the crying by the main stream media, have a ratio of 1.46. There have been many Super Bowl Champions that have ratios at or below this ratio, including the 2007 Giants, the 2006 Colts, and 2003 Patriots. The highest ratio of points/points allowed in the last 25 years? The 1985 Chicago Bears with a ratio of 2.3.

Speaking of the Bears, it's now time I get in my weekly obligatory Jay Cutler blast. Once again I'd like to point out that Chicago is ranked 1st in field position. Imagine the kind of damage they could do if they had a QB who wasn't chain smoking interceptions.

Week 13 Summaries

There are a few games worth mention in week 13, but let's exhaust our analysis of the Broncos and Chiefs first. Already, we've noted that the turnover margin wasn't reflective of the true turnover margin in the game, since KC had two additional turnovers on downs. We can also look at the context of each turnover as well.

Denver turned the ball over on its first possession. Statistically, they were down minus-1 in the turnover battle early in the first quarter. Big freakin' deal. As we know, a turnover committed early in the game can be easily overcome. In this case, the first drive was simply 1 out of 15 drives that Denver had in the game. They scored on 7 others.

But it was even more interesting was how quickly Denver scored. Denver's average number of plays per scoring drive was just 6 plays. And Denver's average yards gained/play on these scoring drives was 6.5. Most of this was done on the ground. They were shredding the Chiefs--in a hurry. Combine this with Denver's points off of turnovers, 13 (including turnovers on downs), and you have the makings for a nice victory.

This does helps all of us swallow the 3rd-down efficiency pill a little easier. Even though Denver was only 30.77% on 3rd downs, they only had a total of five 3rd downs during their 7 scoring drives. They were making quick work of the Chiefs' defense.

Also of note is Denver's total domination with respect to the time of possession. Don't let this fool you. Much of this stat came in the 2nd half as Denver was simply killing the clock. In the 4th quarter alone, Denver dominated the time of possession 11:32 to 3:28. In this case, the time of was truly a reflection of Denver having the lead going into the 2nd half.

There are two other questions remaining from week 13. How did the Saints escape with a win in Washington? And how did Oakland beat the Steelers? Both questions have the same answer, and let's just be honest, stats won't make you feel any better about it.

But let's point out the obvious. First, the Steelers and Redskins did lose the turnover battle. In addition, the Steelers and Redskins were pitiful in the Red Zone. The Steelers were 2 for 5 and the Redskins were 3 for 7. Neither of these stats helped either team. However, with the game on the line, each team had the ability to win the game. And here's where one of the truths of football rears its ugly head:

Sometimes crap just happens.

That's right. How else do you explain what happened at the end of both of these games? Players make plays? Well, I guess if we are being technical. I was listening to the post game radio show on the Raiders' radio network (a mortal sin), and Gradkowski essentially said he was just throwing the ball up for grabs and knew it had a good chance of being picked off . Then a few plays later, the refs call a personal foul penalty on a seemingly normal hit, giving the Raiders 1st and goal. I suppose we should all be happy, for it it helped the Broncos in their quest for the playoffs, and it put the Raiders one step further away from being able to draft Ndamukong Suh. Still one has to wonder if the Raiders would be smart enough to draft him if he was available. Perhaps they would need to see a 40 time. It's always good to know the Raiders are not on the hero's journey.

The Redskins didn't fair much better. An interception-fumble-TD return by the Saints on 3rd-and-26? Seriously? A missed 23-yard field goal? Sometimes crap just happens, but it seems to happen to the Redskins a little bit more often, although after the game, Drew Brees credited Karma. Oh, well, one man's Karma is another person's crap.

2-Turnover Rule (Explained Here)

4 teams had 0 turnovers. 4 won (100%); For the season, 60/74 (81%)
10 teams had 1 turnover. 7 won (70%); For the season, 64/109 (59%)
10 teams had 2 turnovers. 2 won (20%); For the season, 48/110 (44%)
6 teams had 3 turnovers. 3 won (50%); For the season, 16/56 (29%)
1 team had 4 turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 4/25 (16%)
1 teams had 5+ turnovers. None won (0%); For the season, 0/10 (0%)

Week 13 - Big Picture

The team that won the turnover battle won 13 of 16 games played (81%).
In the previous category, remove the ties (1 game) and this changes to 75%
The team that won the time of possession battle won 9 of the 16 games played (56%).
The team that had better third-down efficiency won 12 of the 16 games played (75%).
The team that had better average starting field position won 10 of the 16 games played (63%).
There were 3 games this week in which a team won all four categories. In all 3, the same team won on the scoreboard (100%). For the season, this stat is 62 out of 67 games. In only 3 games, however, has a team won outright in all four categories (no ties in the turnover battle) and lost.
The winning teams this week averaged 1.25 turnovers, 31:43 in time of possession, 40.45% on 3rd downs, and their average starting field position was the 30.23-yard line.

Top 5 in Week 13:

Top 5 in giveaways: New York Jets, Oakland, Philadelphia, and San Diego tied with 0.
Top 5 in time of possession: 1.Dallas 2.Jacksonville 3.Cincinnati 4.Denver 5.Green Bay
Top 5 in 3rd downs: 1.Indianapolis 2.Washington 3.Dallas 4.New York Jets 5. Tennessee
Top 5 in avg. starting field position: 1.Saint Louis 2.Denver 3.Cincinnati 4.Green Bay 5.Pittsburgh

Running Totals, Season (through 13 weeks):

192 games have been played this season
80.73% were won by the team with less turnovers (counting ties as wins)
66.67% with a better time of possession
66.67% by the team who won on 3rd down
70.31% by the team that won the field-position battle.

13-week League Averages:

13-week running average/game, turnovers (all teams): 1.70

13-week running average/game, time of possession (all teams): 30:11 (thanks to numerous OT games)

13-week running average/game, 3rd down efficiency (all teams): 37.80%

13-week running average, starting field position (all teams) 29.73 yard line

The Look Ahead

Looking ahead to Indianapolis, here is how the two teams stack up in the four statistical categories (keeping in mind these are averages/game):

Team Turnovers/Game Time of Possession Field Position 3rd-Down Efficiency

Denver 1.50 30:04 28.74 35.12%

Indianapolis 1.33 28:21 28.42 49.96%

I don't need to tell you what you already know, but Denver is going to struggle to win this game. Indy's speedy defense is built for 3rd downs. Peyton Manning and the Colts don't need time of possession and field position to win. They are last in the league in number of drives, but first in the league in yards/drive. The last thing the Colts do is waste time. Additionally, they are deadly running the no-huddle offense, which has vexed Denver to no end this year.

Most impressive is the Colts on 3rd down. There was really only one game this year in which the Colts had a bad day on 3rd downs. It was in week 3 against Arizona, and the Colts still won 31-10. However, the game is instructive. The Cardinals did a pretty good job in the first half of not giving away their defense at the line of scrimmage and stacking their linebackers to hide their blitzes. Manning had a bit of difficulty calling his audibles properly. Later in the game, Manning started using quick counts to counteract this strategy. Still, the tape would be useful to the Broncos so that they don't stand stationary in their standard 5-2 sets.

If there ever was a time for heroes, it is now. This will be an important test for the new Broncos and their new 3-4. In past years, Denver has been destroyed by the Colts--except the year the Colts decided to rest Manning. But just like winning in December in Kansas City, this Broncos' team could care less about what happened under Mike Shanahan. Perhaps this version of the Broncos will continue to buck the trends and return to Denver after slaying the monstrous Colts' offense.

It would be a great story, indeed. And the dark moment of Denver's 4-game losing streak would simply fade into myth.

Hail, Kyle Orton!!

Last stat: 50% (percentage chance that you can beat Dallas Clark in a 40-yard dash).

Tennessee Titans Morning Links: Chuck Cecil Isn't Too Vicious For The College Football Hall Of Fame Edition

August West — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:38:51 -0000

More photos » by Darron Cummings - AP

Can VY rebound? Let see if he can block-out first.

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Congratulations to Chuck Cecil for being inducted to the College Football Hall of Fame on Tuesday. Cecil was an All-American defensive back at Arizona State University in the mid-1980's, and certainly deserves to be remembered among the elite college players of all time (note: if you're going to click on this link, get ready for a very sad aside covering Chris Spielman).

Terry McCormick looks at the Titans' playoff chances, which we posted on Sunday night.

Boom King may not be getting it done on the field quite like he has in the past, but he's still leading the way in community work, and that's why he's been announced as the 2009 Titans Walter Payton Man of the Year Award winner. This puts him in the running for the league-wide version of the award.

Follow us through the jump for more slim pickens'...

If you're coming to the game Sunday, bring a toy for needy kids or gramsey and his fellow Marines will drop the hammer!

If Jim Wyatt and crew ever knew 4 or 7 things about the Titans the whole sports section of their site might just implode.

Here's the primary reasoning for why CJ couldn't be the MVP even if he breaks 2,000 yards: the MVP should go to the best player on the best team, rather than the best player in the league. I personally think that's a load of crap, and that it completely misses the fact that football is the greatest team sport in the world. I mean, this is what we mock and complain about with the Heisman Trophy, isn't it?

The only way you can make this case and not be laughed at by me is if you are blind, or continually blindfolded. Also, the thing they're misrepresenting about the their 'mystery quarterback' is that he needed some tweaks on his largely excellent mechanics (as opposed to a complete overhaul), and that QB had 6 between graduating from college being a successful starter in the NFL.

Have love, need links: mcmaugustwest@gmail.com!

Week 13: Inside the Numbers

mgrex03 — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 05:28:26 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

Where's that #18 jersey again? (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Sorry again for the week off last week. I finally have everything back to where it was, waiting to see if my data can be recovered from my dead hard drive. I think what I have is correct, so we're going with it!

We're in the home stretch now of the season, and the Colts just keep right on ticking. Sunday saw the Colts take it to the Titans once again, being extremely efficient on offense, and making the big plays on defense to get the Colts to 12-0, one win away from the #1 seed and guaranteeing the Road to Miami comes through the Circle City. A few notes from the game:

The Colts have now won 12 games in 7 straight seasons. Only 7 other franchises have seven such seasons in their history! The Cowboys come the closest in terms of straight seasons with 4. The all-time record is 11 by the Cowboys, followed by the Colts' 10.
It happened against the Texans, but Peyton Manning passed John Elway for 3rd all time in Completions. Elway did it in 7250 passes. Manning? 6420.
Again from the win against the Texans (via Elias):

The Colts rallied from a 17-0 deficit to post a 35-27 win at Houston. It was the fifth time that Peyton Manning led his team to a regular-season victory after trailing by at least 17 points, a new NFL record. (Manning and the Colts also won the AFC title game in January 2007 after trailing the Patriots by 18 points.)

For comparison, they mentioned on Sunday night that Brett Favre has never come back from a 14 point deficit. I'm just saying...
We all know that the Colts have now won 21 consecutive regular season games, tying the record set by the Patriots just last season. I'd really like the Colts to get one more.

The win over the Titans certainly looked very nice, but what do the numbers say? Let's have a look:

Here are the numbers from Week 13:

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Defense	Rank	Off/Def Above	Off/Def Below	Record
DSR	81.3%	4	76.5%	26	N	N	3-0
ANPY/A	7.838	11	5.182	13	Y	N	7-0
Turnovers	0	1	2	10	Y	N	9-1
Yds/Drive	39.78	6	37.50	22	N	N	3-0
ToP/Drive	3:00.1	7	3:17.9	29	N	N	6-1
Yds/Play	5.594	14	4.870	12	Y	N	5-1
First Downs/Drive	2.56	4	2.40	28	N	N	2-2
3rd/4th Down	64.3%	1	44.4%	23	N	N	6-0
Avg Start Pos	32.4	12	31.7	18	N	N	7-4
3 and Outs	3	11	1	30	N	N	3-2
RZ Eff	85.7%	3	48.6%	9	Y	N	5-4
Plays/Drive	7.111	5	7.700	32	N	N	4-3
Penalty Yds / Play	0.625	14	0.649	18	N	N	3-4
RB Success	55.6%	4	60.0%	32	N	N	3-6
Yds/Carry	3.26	21	4.30	21	N	Y	3-5
Net Punts Yds/Game	36.00	28	39.00	10	N	Y	2-3
Ranking - Week (32)	2		23		9
Ranking - Season (384)	15		278		115

Some thoughts:

It wasn't the greatest day passing the ball for Manning, but it rarely is against the Titans. Still above average though, along with the defense. Teams have rarely lost this year when they've done that (97-5).
3rd/4th Down conversions were key on Sunday, as the Colts had the best conversion rate in the league on Sunday, and the Titans missed a couple really big 4th downs.
Also key was Red Zone Efficiency. Offense ranked 3rd, Defense ranked 9th. Excellent job this week.
RB Success is very interesting this week. The offense were successful over 55% of their runs, good for 4th best in the league. That is fantastic against a defense like the Titans. But the defensive number is concerning: dead last. Now, I know the Colts held Chris Johnson in check the whole game, keeping him from breaking the long one. But he consistently gained yardage each time he touched the ball, which is what the defense needs to focus on. A 4.3 YPC is good, unless the other team actually gets 4 yards each time they run the ball: they'll march into the end zone.

Full Season Stats (12 games):

Statistic	Offense	Rank	Best	Defense	Rank	Best	Record	Win %
DSR	79.1%	1	Colts	70.3%	19	Jets	78-8	0.907
ANPY/A	7.655	4	Saints	4.699	8	Bills	97-5	0.951
Turnovers	1.25	4	Chargers	2.00	6	Saints	88-20	0.815
Yds/Drive	38.72	1	Colts	31.48	23	Packers	79-11	0.878
ToP/Drive	2:48.7	11	Bengals	2:58.0	32	Packers	86-24	0.782
Yds/Play	6.263	3	Saints	5.024	7	Jets	81-17	0.827
First Downs/Drive	2.24	1	Colts	1.87	28	Bengals	70-19	0.787
3rd/4th Down	51.0%	1	Colts	44.5%	30	Bengals	75-16	0.824
Avg Start Pos	28.3	25	Bears	27.4	7	Cardinals	87-26	0.770
3 and Outs	2.42	1	Colts	3.42	23	Eagles	57-21	0.731
RZ Eff	72.1%	3	Cardinals	57.5%	5	Redskins	59-33	0.641
Plays/Drive	6.182	2	Falcons	6.266	32	Packers	66-32	0.673
Penalty Yds / Play	0.610	2	Dolphins	0.885	7	Seahawks	65-38	0.631
RB Success	50.4%	8	Broncos	48.0%	19	Vikings	64-35	0.646
Yds/Carry	3.81	28	Titans	4.23	17	Ravens	43-43	0.500
Net Punts Yds/Game	38.95	22	Raiders	42.52	29	Patriots	35-43	0.449
Overall	1		Colts	20		Packers

A couple notes:

The Colts are, once again, the Best Offense in the NFL, leading in 5 categories, and Top 4 in 11/16 categories. These are all stats the Colts have excelled at in the past, so this should be no surprise to anyone.
The defense is still giving up the longest drives in the league, at almost 3 minutes a drive. They were doing great, but have struggled lately. Need to get this worked out before the Playoffs.
The Defense has been great forcing Turnovers, getting 2 / game. Fantastic. Also, the Red Zone Efficiency is great at 57.5%. To put this in perspective, the Colts offense is outscoring their opponents on each Red Zone trip by 5.0 - 4.0. NFL average is 3 RZ trips / game, so that is 3 points in the Colts favor, just from the Red Zone. Awesome.
This year, more than any other recent year, is defining the mantra: "Pass and defend the pass = Wins". 95.1% speaks for itself.

Gary Kubiak: What To Do?

Jake — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 03:04:57 -0000

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The 2009 NFL season was supposed to be the breakout year for the Houston Texans. After two 8-8 seasons, they seemed primed for the franchise's first playoff season. Now, sitting at 5-7, the playoffs are not a possibility and the focus has shifted to embattled head coach Gary Kubiak.

Gary Kubiak is the second head coach of the Houston Texans. He was hired in 2006 to replace Dom Capers, who lead the expansion franchise to an 18-46 record over the first four years, including a 2-14 record in 2005. The move to Kubiak made sense. Kubiak is a Houston native who played college ball in the state of Texas before a 19 year playing and coaching career with the Denver Broncos, one of the best offensive teams of the last quarter century.

Something has gone awry. The hometown man has not been bad, but he certainly hasn't been good either. He currently has 27-33 record as a head coach and is on pace for a third consecutive .500 season (or maybe even worse). Anyone who has watched this team knows that it is capable of much more; six of the seven losses were winnable in the closing quarter of the game, yet the Texans came up short. Many speculate that this lack of "closing games" may cost Kubiak his job.

Many Texans fans feel this Kubiak's ouster is the right course of action. The NFL is an instant gratification league, and fans demand results. When the average Houston fan looks around at the turnaround success that Atlanta, Baltimore and Miami all experienced on the shoulders of first year head coaches last year, it's hard to feel loyalty to a coach that hasn't managed a playoff season in four years when those three coaches managed to do it in one.

What has killed Kubiak are the other AFC South teams. While the Kubiak-led Texans are a decent 20-16 against the rest of the league, they are an abysmal 7-17 against the Colts, Jaguars and Titans. For a team to be successful, they must at least break even in their division, something that the Texans have done only once since Kubiak's hire. Ironically, that .500 year was in 2006, which was the only season Kubiak managed less than 8-8 for the season.

As I implied earlier, Kubiak was hired for his offensive expertise. As a former quarterback, coach of that same position, and offensive coordinator, he certainly had the right pedigree. In 2006 he attempted to make that offense work with former first round pick David Carr. After finishing 28th in total offense with Carr, Kubiak and his general manager Rick Smith, who Kubiak brought with him from Denver, traded two second round picks in consecutive years for Atlanta backup quarterback Matt Schaub. Since that trade, the Texans finished 14th in 2007, 3rd in 2008 and are currently ranked 8th in total offense.

So on the offensive front the Texans have improved drastically under Kubiak. Unfortunately, the defense has not fared as well. Former defensive coordinator Richard Smith led an anemic defense that could not keep up with the offensive improvement. Many Texans fans were encouraged by the firing of Richard Smith, and the subsequent hiring of Frank Bush, another Kubiak colleague from his days in Denver. Bush, along with first-round pick and defensive rookie of the year candidate Brian Cushing, have given new life into the defense, which now ranks 16th.

Rankings are all well and good, but the one statistic that matters in the NFL is wins. You would assume a team that ranks 8th in total offense and 16th in total defense is a playoff caliber team; the Texans, however, find themselves effectively eliminated from that race. This leads us back to not closing games when they matter, something usually attributed to coaching. As stated, this attribute may cost him his job at the end of the season.

I personally think that firing Kubiak after the 2009 campaign would be a huge mistake. He is definitely not perfect, and this season has been the football equivalent of a root canal for me and all Texans fans. Consider, though, what replacing Kubiak would entail. It has been rumored that owner Bob McNair would be interested in a defensive-minded head coach. So what would that mean?

Kubiak runs a unique offense that relies on a smaller, zone blocking offensive line. Bill Cowher has been named as a potential suitor. Cowher was known as a power running coach, something that would require new offensive lineman and new running backs. The only other "established" head coach is Mike Shanahan, but you might as well forget about that possibility because even though his son is currently offensive coordinator, it is unlikely that he would step in to replace his friend and former protégé. The other option is a first-time head coach who is currently a defensive coordinator. While that move may or may not work to improve the defense, it is still unknown what would happen to the offense because without Kubiak, Kyle Shanahan would likely leave to coach with his father, who will undoubtedly be given a job somewhere.

There's more though. What happens to GM Rick Smith if Kubiak is canned? While Kubiak's performance can be questioned, it is obvious that Smith has done a phenomenal job to undo the damage done by former GM Charlie Casserly. There are only a handful of players left from the Casserly regime, which is not a coincidence. This roster was so devoid of talent when Smith took over that a complete re-tooling was necessary. Smith has traded for a QB who is arguably one of the top ten in the league, drafted key players including three Pro Bowlers, and brought in some (yes, just some) good free agent acquisitions, such as Antonio Smith.

I feel that it is a fact that Kubiak and Smith have improved this team significantly. It is possible that Kubiak is incapable of being a great coach because of his handling of game situations necessary for winning games late. We don't know that though; at this point it is just speculation. I think it's worth the risk of another gut-wrenching, underperforming season to validate that suspicion. Keep in mind that Kubiak still has a chance to lead the Texans to their first winning season ever this season, albeit a slim one. Even if that doesn't happen, and he produces yet another mediocre season, I say give him one more chance. We haven't seen enough failure yet to justify another complete do-over.

Oh, by the way, the resurgent Falcons, Dolphins and Ravens that had sharp turnarounds last year are all currently 6-6 and out of the playoffs as of right now. I would forgo instant gratification in exchange for sustained success. What about you?

Chris Johnson Success Rate Against the Colts

Jimmy — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 23:00:17 -0000

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Explanation:

Each individual rush is considered on it's own, and measured by it's "success." A run is considered successful if it gets 40% of the yardage needed to move the chains on first down, 60% of the yardage needed on second down, and 100% of the yardage needed on third or fourth down. This is a much more accurate overall picture of how well a running back does in a game than just the total yardage or ypc averages because it ignores big run outliers that can skew those kinds of stats

Stats after the jump.

vs IND / 12.6.09	Rushing				Receiving
	Rush	Yards	Avg	TD	Rec	Yards	Avg	TD
Chris Johnson	27	113	4.2	0	6	28	4.7	0

While he didn't get the number we wanted him to get to keep the pace for 2,150 or even 2,000, he did have one of his more successful games by this metric. Plus he put up good enough numbers that a huge game against the Rams puts him right back on pace.

The Titans Free Agent Wide Receiver Woes

Jimmy — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:49:56 -0000

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Catch or drop? (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

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The Titans should be banned from ever signing free agent wide receivers. Here are the numbers on the biggest three they have signed since the franchise moved to Tennessee:

And this doesn't even address all of the failed draft picks before Kenny Britt came along..

The sad thing when you look at that is Nate Washington is going to easily have the best season of all (just think what his numbers would be if he could actually catch), but there is always some big if with the guys the Titans sign.

No real point to this post other than to depress you.

Week 14 NFL Power Rankings : The "At Least the Rams are Next Week" Edition

smashville — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 20:11:24 -0000

Rankings for Week 14 after the jump. Average spot is 18. It's the first week we've moved down since October.

NFL.com's "experts" - down two to #16.

ESPN - up one to #17.

A confident, streaking team sputtered pretty badly in Indianapolis. (Kuharsky)

Yahoo! Sports - down two to #16.

Will Chris Johnson run for 300 yards against the Rams on Sunday – and how bummed about this matchup is the person who has to face UCSB women’s basketball coach Lindsay Gottlieb in the first round of their fantasy-league playoffs?

Pro Football Weekly - down two to #19.

Turnovers have been big problems in losses.

CBS Sportsline - down two to #19.

Their winning streak was ended by the Colts, but they aren't dead yet. The schedule is favorable down the stretch.

Fox Sports - stays at #16.

Reality bites at 5-7 with their surprising five-game win streak squashed at Indy. But the Titans were a couple plays from being neck-and-neck with the Colts last week — i.e. why do teams get so fourth-down happy?

The Sporting News's Power Poll - down three to #19.

QB Vince Young finally ran out of magic against the Colts. So far, everyone else has, too.

What if Sports's rankings - down one to #9