The NHL will likely announce realignment in December. In order to solve travel and economic imbalance, the league should shift to a model that mirrors the NFL and MLB.
Oct 12, 2011 - In the wake of Atlanta's move to Winnipeg, Gary Bettman and the NHL have set a December deadline for a decision on realigning the existing divisional structure.
"Obviously we have to make arrangements to move Winnipeg west, and we had an opportunity to explore the issues. No conclusions were reached, but it's something I'm hopeful we can resolve at the December meeting."
There is a significant sticking point in these negotiations -- membership in the Eastern Conference -- that may force the negotiations into a prolonged battle, as Detroit, Nashville and Columbus would all like to gain access to strong Eastern Conference fanbases and the all-important Eastern Time Zone.
But despite the inability to please everybody, the league doesn't have to renege on a promise to Red Wings owner Mike Ilitch or force the Predators and Blue Jackets to play in Western time zones. The owners could take a cue from the NFL and Major League Baseball and end their East-West conference alignment. If the league were to include an Eastern, Central and Western Division in each conference, the stress of playing so many games against conference foes thousands of miles away and out of local time zones can be spread throughout the league rather than heaped on only 15 teams Western-based teams. Geographically balancing conference alignment also gives each team an equal amount of games in the Eastern Time Zone, gives each team a shot at attracting out-of-market fans, and gives each team access to the Eastern media and national television opportunities.
But a balanced alignment also solves another issue: the balance of revenue and profits between the two conferences. Putting On The Foil is an Edmonton Oilers blog operated by a few gentlemen who appreciate the physical side of the game. That doesn't mean the business side escapes them, however. They recently published an analysis of league-wide pre-tax operating incomes stretching back to 2006. The numbers are based on Forbes' annual NHL valuations and it should be noted that Forbes admits the numbers are estimates.
From those numbers we know the NHL made $706.1 million over the past five years. The six Canadian teams have generated $634.8 million, the other 24 teams have generated $71.3 million total. Of course, that includes the 13 teams operating at a loss, which totaled $348.9 million. The other 11 teams generated $420.2 million. This isn't going to be an anti-South screed, as many NHL journalists tend to do when numbers like these are published. Instead, I believe the NHL can address some of their income issues through realignment and specifically by using a balanced approach.
I took the numbers from Putting On The Foil's article and broke them down by by division. Those numbers are listed below.
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Total | |
| New Jersey Devils | -6.7 | -15.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 6.9 | -11.8 |
| New York Islanders | -9.2 | -11.6 | -8.8 | -5.6 | -4.5 | -39.7 |
| New York Rangers | 17.7 | 25.4 | 30.7 | 27.7 | 41.4 | 142.9 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 0.9 | 5.7 | -1.8 | 3.1 | 13.3 | 21.2 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 4.8 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 3.3 | -1.6 | 19.7 |
| Atlantic | 132.3 | |||||
| Boston Bruins | 4.8 | -0.6 | -3 | 11.6 | 2.6 | 15.4 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 4.6 | -4.9 | -8.9 | -5.2 | -7.9 | -22.3 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 17.5 | 25.2 | 39.6 | 31.3 | 53.1 | 166.7 |
| Ottawa Senators | 4.2 | 10.4 | 4.7 | -3.8 | -3.8 | 11.7 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 41.5 | 52.7 | 66.4 | 78.9 | 82.5 | 322 |
| Northeast | 493.5 | |||||
| Carolina Hurricanes | 0.5 | -7.5 | -11.5 | -4.6 | -7.3 | -30.4 |
| Florida Panthers | -1.9 | -7.1 | -9.4 | -13.6 | -9.6 | -41.6 |
| Washington Capitals | 4.6 | 1 | -6.9 | -4.9 | -9.1 | -15.3 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | -2.2 | -7.9 | -3.3 |
| Atlanta Thrashers | -5.4 | -6.5 | -6.1 | -1.8 | -8 | -27.8 |
| Southeast | -118.4 | |||||
| Chicago Blackhawks | 3.1 | -3.6 | 1.4 | 20.9 | 17.6 | 39.4 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | -4 | -5.6 | -7.1 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -33.9 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 5.8 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 27.4 | 15.3 | 76.3 |
| Nashville Predators | -1.1 | -9.4 | -1.3 | -5.7 | -5.5 | -23 |
| St. Louis Blues | 1 | -5.5 | -8.6 | -2.7 | -6.2 | -22 |
| Central | 36.8 | |||||
| Calgary Flames | 2.3 | -0.7 | 7.4 | -0.8 | 4.6 | 12.8 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 5.9 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 20.5 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 10.7 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 50.6 |
| Minnesota Wild | 4.7 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 1.3 | -2.3 | 2.7 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 1.1 | 12.8 | 19.2 | 20.3 | 17.6 | 71 |
| Northwest | 157.6 | |||||
| Anaheim Ducks | -0.2 | 6.6 | 1 | 4.8 | -5.2 | 7 |
| Dallas Stars | 10 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 53.5 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 7.1 | 2 | 1.2 | 10.6 | 0.7 | 21.6 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | -6 | -11.4 | -9.7 | -18.5 | -20.1 | -65.7 |
| San Jose Sharks | 1.8 | -5.1 | 2.4 | -5 | -6.2 | -12.1 |
| Pacific | 4.3 |
What conclusions can be drawn from these numbers? Firstly, there was an enormous income disparity between the two conferences -- the Eastern Conference made $507.4 million while the Western Conference made $198.7 million. The numbers from the Eastern Conference are more striking when the Southeast's $118.4 million loss is taken into account. The east contains more major media markets, a larger population base (by 10+ percent) and a larger economic base (by 20 percent). The franchises in the east are also closer to one another, giving them both travel advantages and the ability to easily attract fans from neighboring metropolitan areas.
If the league were to adopt an alignment like the one listed below, the disparities between the two conferences would disappear. The number at the bottom of each division is the income earned over the last five seasons.
*For the rest of this article, assume the Winnipeg Jets will generate income at or near Ottawa Senators' levels.
| New Conference #1 | ||
| Eastern | Central | Western |
| Carolina Hurricanes | Buffalo Sabres | Anaheim Ducks |
| Florida Panthers | Chicago Blackhawks | Colorado Avalanche |
| Philadelphia Flyers | Detroit Red Wings | Los Angeles Kings |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Ottawa Senators | Phoenix Coyotes |
| Washington Capitals | Toronto Maple Leafs | San Jose Sharks |
| -69.4 | 427.1 | -28.7 |
Each division still maintains geographical proximity to ease travel costs. There's still divisional imbalance in income, but with so few teams making up such a large percentage of league income, divisional imbalance is difficult to overcome. Travel distances and conference incomes are balanced, however.
| New Conference #2 | ||
| Eastern | Central | Western |
| Boston Bruins | Columbus Blue Jackets | Calgary Flames |
| Montreal Canadiens | Dallas Stars | Edmonton Oilers |
| New Jersey Devils | Nashville Predators | Minnesota Wild |
| New York Islanders | Pittsburgh Penguins | Vancouver Canucks |
| New York Rangers | St. Louis Blues | Winnipeg Jets |
| 273.5 | -5.7 | 148.8 |
The Central Division in Conference No. 2 is the weakest of the divisions currently, but Dallas is a sizable market and St. Louis is a traditionally strong market. Pittsburgh has a new arena and should generate significant income in the coming years.
As with all suggested change, traditionalists will decry the suggestions above. Splitting a few existing rivalries will likely be the primary criticism, but it's worth remembering that the NHL has previously undergone four significant realignments since 1967 and rivalries depend on on-ice play, specifically playoff matchups, much more than they depend on geography. Just ask the Blackhawks and Canucks.
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Comments
Interesting take
Very cool and it highlights that getting past the traditional West vs East alignments.
I am sick of players including Western teams in NTC lists just because of the travel. It isn’t fair. Very interesting article Derek
by Mitch Smith on Oct 12, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
The NHL needs to go beyond the traditional take on realignment. Balancing travel should be one of the primary goals of any new proposal.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 12, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I pitched the concept of the NFL/MLB division lineup / conference system two years ago:
http://www.rawcharge.com/2009/8/18/992723/east-vs-west-is-not-the-best-nhl
Of course, my alignment made people angry because it broke up rivalries. Whatever happens, the league needs to make tough choices instead of kickign the can down the road (as they have been since… oh, forever)
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by John Fontana on Oct 12, 2011 12:50 PM EDT reply actions
I like Zona's proposal better as a Stars fan
Putting the Stars in a division with Calgary, Minnesota, Anaheim, and Phoenix? How does that resolve their already existing travel issues?
Writer for Defending Big D
by Brandon Bibb on Oct 12, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Dallas is the team at the biggest disadvantage in the current alignment, especially with regards to television. With three eastern time zone opponents in the division, they would still be at a disadvantage, but less so because the time difference is only one hour. Those EST games would become “Happy Hour” games.
This alignment does ease most of their travel issues, however.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 12, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone gets screwed in most any alignment. Not saying that Dallas should get screwed, I’m just saying if it’s not Dallas, then it’s Minnesota, Winnipeg, Edmonton, etc.
Another part of what Derek could have proposed — and I was talking about this via Twitter this morning – is copying Baseball to a T with a 5-6-4 division alignment (5 team sin the east, 6 int he central and 4 in the west) for each conference.
Typing is an adventure, and reading should be, too!
Raw Charge.
by John Fontana on Oct 12, 2011 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Dallas mostly gets screwed because they’re a bagillion miles away from the rest of the league. Shit happens.
On that 5-6-4 alignment in MLB, it’s probably going to fixed next season if Houston moves to the AL like it seems they will.
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by Travis Hughes on Oct 12, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't care about miles.
I care about time zones.
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by Brandon Worley on Oct 12, 2011 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
This a is thoughtful plan based on logic, actual metrics of importance, but also common sense. For those reasons, it will never be considered by the NHL.
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by poploser on Oct 12, 2011 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
Thanks for the sentiment.
Someday the Old Boys Club will come around.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 12, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Interesting
It makes sense, but looks weird to me not seeing Boston and Buffalo in the same division. Of course, I didn’t like it when the old Adams division went poof, but got used to it. Same thing would happen here, for the fans. It’s the owners/GMs that need to buy in.
Only suggestion is it looks like maybe flipping PIttsburgh and Chicago would make a little more sense from a travel perspective, but I’m not sure how it affects the other balance issues you factored in.
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by jpb531 on Oct 12, 2011 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
That’s an outstanding suggestion. It works perfectly. Thanks.
If there were some hallowed tradition in the NHL alignment, I would say let it be and work around it. But since the original six, NHL alignment has been about cliques, convenience and not knowing what’s best for the game as a whole.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 12, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I think your proposal makes a ton of sense but do you think you could get the existing Eastern teams with cushy travel schedules to agree to something like this? I see the whole thing just getting bogged down with me, me, me attitudes.
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by ryanbatty on Oct 12, 2011 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
The feedback has thus far been nearly 100% positive from Western Conference fans and nearly 100% negative from Eastern Conference fans. Ah, the privileged class.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
by Derek Zona on Oct 12, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That is the most logical and seamingly effective grouping I’ve seen and it will likely never happen entirely becuase of the current Eastern Conference
I'm an Oilers fan and I haven't had surgery in weeks, HOORAY!!
by Joe Girth on Oct 12, 2011 6:37 PM EDT reply actions
Very interesting proposal! It balances out the travel very well between conferences and maintains many of the traditional rivalries within divisions.
Yes, it will mean more “late” nights for watching games for me, the rooter for an Eastern conference team but I consider it fair to teams, as a general rule.
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by CapsFan75 on Oct 12, 2011 8:04 PM EDT reply actions
I understnad that these numbers are estimates,
but I don’t get how the Penguins could have possibly lost lost 1.6 million in 2010. A new arena that was sold-out every game, more boxes, more seats…I don’t see how that is possible.
Too bad there hasn't always been a DH...then we never would have to hear about this Ruth guy...
by Brad Spontak on Oct 13, 2011 2:37 AM EDT reply actions
I'm not sure how Tampa lost so much
in the most successful season since 2004 (done with relatively cheap free agents). But I guess arena renovations may play into it.
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by Incipient_Senescence on Oct 13, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Standing Points
Derek you really peaked my curiosity with this one and I started wondering how these new divisions would stack up based on team strength so I threw together the standing points for the last 4 seasons and grouped them by new and current divisions.
A couple highlights:
Current: 2 very strong divisions, 2 very weak and 2 right in the middle
New: 2 strong divisions, 1 very weak (thanks Oilers) and 3 right in the middle
The disparity in the average points by division is reduced by 40%
The 3 best regular season teams over that period (San Jose, Detroit and Washington respectively) are all in Conference #1. The 3 worst regular season teams over that period (NYI, Edmonton and Winnipeg/Atlanta disrespectively) are all in Conference #2. This explains, in part, why Conf #1 shows a 38 standing points dominance over Conf #2 (about 2.5 points per team)
All in all the new division break down looks great by this stat with not one division having too many strong/weak teams lumped together.
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by Joe Girth on Oct 13, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions
In a long term realignment, current strength of teams should have little to do with it. 5 years ago Penguins, Caps and Blackhawks were perrenial bottom dwellers. In 5 years the Oil, Isles and other teams that have been drafting high could be the class of the league. Team strength is not static.
by ThatGuy22 on Oct 21, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
A few issues.
I don’t hate this, but there are a few things…
One thing that bugs me off the top but isn’t a very big deal is the name of the Toronto/Ottawa/etc division. Ottawa, for instance, is to the east of all except Philly in Conference 1’s East Division. Buffalo is entirely east of Florida. But that’s a small point.
Second, one of the things that Bob McKenzie’s been saying in this whole discussion is that the NHL is not going to allow divisions that have only one American team or one Canadian team. So, I don’t know about the Western division with Minnesota.
Third, it looks like it’d be pretty difficult to deal with a franchise relocation under this model. If Phoenix moved to Quebec, a BUNCH of dominoes would have to fall. Quebec would demand to be in a division with Montreal, and then, who do you kick out – Boston, which surely wants to share a division with the Habs, or one of the metro NYC teams which seem to come as a package deal? And then who fills Phoenix’s spot out west? St. Louis, Chicago and Dallas are all imperfect candidates there, but there really aren’t any other teams you could consider. Dallas makes the most sense, but if you stick them in a division with the California teams, they have the same complaints that they already have.
Last thing is that it just seems like some rivalries get preference here. The three NY-NJ teams stay together, even though their travel is already absurdly easy compared to the rest of the team. The four Western Canadian teams benefit from playing amongst themselves a bunch (in terms of relatively easy travel and packed houses from all the Calgarians who live in Vancouver and so forth). Ditto the California clubs. Meanwhile St. Louis (to pick one) has no real connection with any of the teams it’s stuck with.
by dzuunmod on Oct 13, 2011 6:30 PM EDT reply actions
How many games would you be suggesting for divisional, conference and league play? Small divisions playing each other a bunch can get pretty old for the dedicated hockey fan, but it might work for the casual fan.
by PrairieStew on Oct 14, 2011 12:16 PM EDT reply actions
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