Flipping The Switch: Does Regular Season Momentum Lead To NHL Playoff Success?

ATLANTA GA - JANUARY 14: Nikolay Zherdev #93 of the Philadelphia Flyers falls down behind the net against the Atlanta Thrashers at Philips Arena on January 14 2011 in Atlanta Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

Is Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs truly a new season with a fresh start, or do habits from the regular season creep into playoff performance? A look at how streaking and slumping teams have fared.

The common wisdom with any team going into the playoffs is that you don't want to peak too early. Many factors can contribute into this: injury, chemistry, strength of schedule and just plan luck. If players were robots (or at least cyborgs, like the Terminator), then the mental aspect of momentum wouldn't come into play -- have a bad game, shake it off and treat the next game as brand new.

However, we're dealing with real people here with varying degrees of mental toughness. Team history and personal history (and personal demons) can creep into one's psyche, causing doubt. We've seen it all too many times -- when a player or team's confidence drops, everything falls apart, but one good break and that belief comes back. The legs pump harder, the shots seem crisper, the timing gets better.

Thus, when you're looking at the last ten games of the season, there are two schools of thought. The first is that you want to be playing at your best with the highest levels of confidence so that successful play is instinctive rather than a work-in-progress. On the other hand, some people think that the playoffs are truly a second season and whatever happened prior is inconsequential.

I tend to believe more of the former than the latter. Of course there's no absolute in pro sports, that's why the games are played. But I'm a big believer in habits on the ice, both good and bad. During losing streaks, teams get into bad habits -- defensemen chase the puck, forwards try to stick-handle through everyone and goalies get overwhelmed. Even though those are all correctable issues, it all comes from individuals trying too hard and not sticking with the team concept.

To test this belief, I looked at the last three years of Stanley Cup playoff action. More specifically, I broke down winners and losers in the first round and divided it into teams that streaked and slumped into the playoffs.

The dividing line for that was 12 points; 13 or more counted as a streaking team while 12 and under counted as a slumping team. (Of course, 12 out of 20 points isn't exactly a slump, but consider the high level of play it takes to make the playoffs and this seemed like a reasonable cut-off point.)

Here are the results:

2007-08
10 teams over, 6 wins
6 teams under, 2 wins

2008-09
8 teams over, 7 wins
8 teams under, 1 win

2009-10
8 teams over, 4 wins
8 teams under, 4 wins

Total:
26 teams over, 17 wins (65.4%)
22 teams under, 7 wins (31.8%)

When a team is playing better during the last ten games of the season, this data shows they win about 2/3 of the time, while you get the inverse for the 22 teams that didn't play as well. Here is the data broken down by season (tables have both Western and Eastern teams in there broken down by conference rank).

2008 Playoffs

Team Pts L10  >12 Win
 z-Montreal
104 8-1-1  Yes Yes
 y-Pittsburgh 102 6-3-1  Yes Yes
 y-Washington 94 9-1-0  Yes No
New Jersey 99 4-5-1  No No
NY Rangers 97 5-1-4  Yes Yes
Philadelphia 95 7-2-1  Yes Yes
Ottawa 94 3-6-1  No No
Boston 94 4-2-4  No No
 z-Detroit 115 7-2-1  Yes Yes
 y-San Jose 108 7-2-1  Yes Yes
 y-Minnesota 98 6-2-2  Yes No
Anaheim 102 8-2-0  Yes No
Dallas 97 3-5-2  No Yes
Colorado 95 5-4-1  No Yes
Calgary 94 5-5-0  No No
Nashville 91 6-3-1  Yes No

 

2009 Playoffs

Team Pts L10  >12 Win
 z-Boston 116 8-2-0  Yes Yes
 y-Washington 108 6-2-2  Yes Yes
 y-New Jersey 106 4-5-1  No No
 Pittsburgh 99 7-2-1  Yes Yes
 Philadelphia 99 4-5-1  No No
 Carolina 97 8-2-0  Yes Yes
 NY Rangers 95 5-4-1  No No
 Montreal 93 5-3-2  No No
 z-San Jose 117 5-4-1  No No
 y-Detroit 112 3-6-1  No Yes
 y-Vancouver 100 6-3-1  Yes Yes
 Chicago 104 7-2-1  Yes Yes
 Calgary 98 4-6-0  No No
 St. Louis 92 8-1-1  Yes No
 Columbus 92 3-3-4  No No
 Anaheim 91 7-2-1  Yes Yes

 

2010 Playoffs

Team Pts L10  >12 Win
 z-Washington 121 6-1-3  Yes No
 y-New Jersey 103 5-2-3  Yes No
 y-Buffalo 100 5-5-0  No No
 Pittsburgh 101 5-4-1  No Yes
 Ottawa 94 7-2-1  Yes No
 Boston 91 6-3-1  Yes Yes
 Philadelphia 88 4-5-1  No Yes
 x-Montreal 88 3-4-3  No Yes
 z-San Jose 113 8-1-1  Yes Yes
 y-Chicago 112 6-3-1  Yes Yes
 y-Vancouver 103 5-4-1  No Yes
 Phoenix 107 5-3-2  No No
 Detroit 102 8-1-1  Yes Yes
 Los Angeles 101 4-3-3  No No
 Nashville 100 6-3-1  Yes No
 Colorado 95 3-5-2  No No

 

What's interesting here is that it doesn't necessarily depend on point totals. You have some very high seeds sliding into the playoffs before getting knocked out (see: San Jose, 2008 or Washington, 2010) and vice versa (see: Philadelphia and New York, 2008).

Of course, there's no exact predictor for playoff results, but this snapshot of data does seem to support the belief that it really does matter if a team is playing with good or bad habits at the end of the season. Unfortunately, coaches don't have a magical button to wipe a player's memory. Those actions have to be trained out of him and sometimes it's too little, too late.

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