Matt Duchene’s divorce from the Colorado Avalanche finally reached some inevitability this week.
Mark Kiszla of The Denver Post reported Thursday that Matt Duchene would be “open to” a trade from the Avalanche, which currently sits dead-last in the NHL standings.
“I’m open to it,” Duchene said Wednesday. “When I say open to it, I know it’s part of the business, and it’s something that might happen. I’m not hiding from it. I’m not running away. I’m not banging my head. I understand it’s part of what we deal with as pro athletes.”
Duchene really opened up in that interview and sounded as ready to move on as a player could possibly be while still sounding happy where he was. So, by my count, there’s three factors at play right now that all but guarantee Duchene won’t be in Denver past the trade deadline or (at the latest) next season.
- Depth. Colorado has a ready-made center to step in and take Duchene’s place as early as next season in Tyson Jost, who they selected 10th overall in the 2016 NHL draft. The Avalanche want him to shed his NCAA eligibility and join them full-time next year, and if you watched him at the World Juniors you know he’s ready.
- Future depth. Colorado is almost certainly going to take center Nolan Patrick with the first overall pick this summer, giving them three young and uber-talented players down the middle. Duchene will be surplus to requirements very soon.
- Duchene’s willingness to move on. Now that it’s out in the open, it will (and should) happen.
There’s a fourth factor in play, too: there are teams out there in playoff contention who need a center like Duchene and have the assets Colorado would want in return. So let’s figure out where the former third-overall pick should roost next.
The Locks
Carolina Hurricanes
This is the team you hear the most when a Duchene trade comes up, and it makes all kinds of sense.
Avs GM Joe Sakic will want a young defenseman he can start to build around. After all, look at what they’ve been rolling out on the blue line lately.
Yeah. Not great.
Carolina has more than a few defensemen Colorado would like. Jaccob Slavin comes to mind, and not just because he’s a Denver native. He’s an excellent penalty killer, and his offensive game (particularly in transition and exiting his own zone) has improved ten-fold.
If Carolina deems Slavin too important to part with, they could dangle defenseman Roland McKeown.
Craig Custance of ESPN.com listed McKeown as Carolina’s prospect closest to reaching the NHL. What about Haydn Fleury? Or Trevor Carrick? Carolina has options.
And Duchene fills a need for Carolina, who could use a second-line scoring center to put Jordan Staal back on the third in a defensive role he’s more suited to. And he gives them more options on their 23rd-ranked power play. Swap out Derek Ryan on the top unit with Duchene and more pucks are going in the net.
If and when Duchene gets traded, I’m willing to bet a lot of money it’s to Carolina.
The Possibles
Montreal Canadiens
I don’t think the Canadiens are willing to trade Mikhail Sergachev, who’s coming off a terrific World Juniors for Russia and a strong season for Windsor in the OHL.
But Nathan Beaulieu? Possibly.
Montreal’s defensive depth isn’t as deep as other teams mentioned here, but they have other assets to mix into a potential deal. Of note, the Habs have five second-round picks to deal over the next two seasons. You could see something like Beaulieu, Tomas Plekanec, a first rounder, and two second rounders going Colorado’s way if Montreal wants to swing for the fences.
And why not? Alex Radulov, Alex Galchenyuk, and Max Pacioretty could use Duchene’s offensive capabilities to take the load off them. Duchene would be quite an upgrade as a second-line center over Plekanec, who is plateauing this season as his career slows down.
New York Islanders
There’s no better way to convince John Tavares to re-sign long term than making a splash to find him a center who can take the scoring burden off of him.
The Isles could make such a move for Duchene, but with caution: they have a lot of scoring forwards coming up through the pipeline, but they don’t want to drain most of their system for Duchene. But Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet indicated the Avalanche would consider taking a potential top-six player for Duchene in a trade, so prospects like Michael Dal Colle or Josh Ho-Sang could go to Denver along with a draft pick or two.
Anaheim Ducks
As we noted in our mock draft, Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler are on the wrong side of 30 years old and Anaheim needs to start thinking about their future down the middle. Luckily, Duchene’s availability comes along right as their defensive depth is stronger than ever. How convenient!
Instead of leaving Sami Vatanen to the expansion draft, it might behoove the Ducks to move him now for Duchene. Especially since prospect Jacob Larsson is quite close to NHL-ready. Toss in a first-round pick and this could happen!
The Unlike-lies
Anyone in the Central Division
Never trade your best players to your rivals. It’s just not good form.
Which is unfortunate, because the Wild, Blues, and Predators all have good cases for acquiring Duchene!
Minnesota’s defense and goaltending have carried them to the top of the Western Conference, but adding a playmaking center to a top-six that includes Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, and Charlie Coyle would make them far more playoff-ready than they are now.
St. Louis is quite tired of Jori Lehtera and could badly use a center. Depending on how Ivan Barbashev performs in his first run in the NHL this week, that need could get amplified or dampened. But with just a few million dollars in cap room, it’s not likely a big trade could happen anyway.
And Nashville, as always, is hoarding defensemen prospects. They took three of them last year in the draft alone! Ryan Johansen-Matt Duchene makes for a better one-two punch down the middle than Johansen-Mike Fisher, right? The Predators and Avalanche would make perfect trade partners if they weren’t supposed to hate each other. Alas.
At any rate, with Duchene’s departure from Denver all but certain, you can bet the tight trade market is just a tad bit more active today. It’ll be fascinating to see what happens and how (and if) the Avalanche start their rebuild with a strong splash.