SB Nation - Andy Hilbert

Minnesota Wild @ Anaheim Ducks: Game Recap

nathaneide — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:32:43 -0000

More photos » by Francis Specker - AP

2 months ago: Anaheim Ducks' Corey Perry, center, is congratulated by teammates on the bench after scoring a goal against the Minnesota Wild in the first period of an NHL hockey game in Anaheim, Calif. on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2009. (AP Photo/Francis Specker)

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Minnesota Wild 2-3 Anaheim Ducks

And the hits just keep on coming. Another first period, another game in which the Wild seem to have left their brains in the locker room and quickly find themselves down 2-0. Each goal was more embarrassing than the previous. Neutral zone turnovers, defensive lapses, Czech superstars who show less interest in their own end of the ice less than Slovak superstars, Slovak Superstars who apparently left their paper mache groin for Czech superstars to use while here (Yes, Martin Havlat is day to day with a groin injury. I'm getting my "Told You So" post all ready). It's all bad right now for the Wild, and there are no signs of improvement.

This team is in complete disarray. Is it the new system? Is it fundamentals? Is it the lack of a captain? Lack of talent? Lack of heart? Bad coaching? Bad attitudes? Well, let's ask Russo:

Tonight wasn’t about a team in transition. Tonight was about a team that in the first period couldn’t win a puck battle, couldn’t make a play in the offensive zone and was just mindless at times in its own zone, and especially in the neutral zone.

Yeah. That sums it up for me. This is a team lost, adrift in a sea of NHLers who know what the hell they're supposed to do when they take the ice. The beginning of this season has not been a problem of learning a new system, it's a problem of craptastic fundamentals, and things need to change in a hurry. We can handle the growing pains, we can't handle a team that doesn't try, then when they do they f*&k it all up.

I don't even know what to say. There are bad stretches, then there are stretches when you are done with the game and can't figure out why you bother watching, then there are the ones you watch for 15 minutes then shut off the TV because it's not just one thing going badly, it's virtually everything on the ice, and the coach is seething on the bench and the players are going through the motions and you wonder if the players all need to be arrested for theft, because they aren't earning NHL paychecks right now.

Onto Edmonton. Hopefully Richards throws someone through a wall.

Go over to Anaheim Calling to see what they have to say about it.

Hockey Wilderness Three Stars

Corey Perry (2 G)
Ryan Carter (1 G)
Jonas Hiller (33 saves)

Questions to Answer

Can Sheppard and Pouliot pick up their play, especially since the team needs them more than ever? Nope. Sheppard was inconsistent and Pouliot was Pouliot.
Can Nathan Smith and Andy Hilbert provide anything? Richards liked their effort. Guess there's something to be said for heart.
Do the new d-pairings shore-up the blue line? Can't pin this entirely on the defense, and Nick Schultz was a +2 on the evening.
Do the Wild dig themselves another hole? Yes, that's precisely what they did. This team is a mental midget right now.
Will the Ryans strike again? Anaheim certainly can be fun to watch when they're pushing it, and the three Ryans are having fun against the Wild.

Michael Russo Interview with Hockey Wilderness

nathaneide — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:10:13 -0000

If you follow the Wild, you live and die by the words of Star Tribune Wild beat writer Michael Russo. We are fortunate enough to have one of the best beat writers in the NHL covering our squad. And I was lucky enough to get 20 minutes of his time this morning as he was headed to the X. I'm hoping I didn't make too big a fool out of myself and get a chance to speak with Mr. Russo again once the season is underway.

Hockey Wilderness: What is different about covering this regime compared to Lemaire/Risebrough?

Michael Russo: I loved dealing with Jacques. He was outstanding for what we need. Joked around, had fun. I had a lot of respect for him. I respect Todd too, don't get me wrong, but there's a feeling out process here. Jacques was brutally honest. Ask him how a guy played and he was straight with everyone. Sometimes he would tick off the player. Todd will very rarely rip a player. Monday night, I had to ask about Kim Johnsson playing terribly. He wouldn't insult my intelligence by denying it, but spins it into a positive.

I liked Doug. Doug was great talking about players, but wouldn't talk about moves, rumors, etc. Chuck's much more transparent. I have a great working relationship with him, going back to 1995 in Florida, where I covered 7 of his 9 years there.

Who has been the best quote you've covered?

Jeremy Roenick, Brett Hull were always fantastic, though I never got a chance to cover them extensively. Of the guys I have covered, Mark Parrish, Len Barrie, Ray Whitney, Mike Sillinger, Olli Jokinen were always great. Currently Eric Belanger is brutally honest and a great quote. Derek Boogaard and Brent Burns are hilarious. Brian Rolston was great to deal with and rarely spoke in cliches, which is always nice for a journalist.

From a journalists perspective, what's the major difference you've seen pre and post-lockout?

Before the lockout, you had to really work sources to get info on a contract. Now it's an email away. With the cap, teams want you to be accurate with what you write. No GM wants it out there that they have $8M of space when it's really $1.2.

As far as the on-ice product, it's just 10 times better. Gone is the clutch and grab of the Roger Neilson and Doug MacLean-era Panthers. It was ugly, but successful. Now, we've evolved past that.

What has been the most fun you've had covering a team?

It's gotta be that 95-96 Panthers team. Shocked the world, went to the Stanley Cup. That was the year of the rat. Florida was playing in the decrepit Miami Arena, and before a game there was a rat running across the locker room. Scott Mellanby winds up and takes a slapper at the rat into a wall, killing it. He then goes out, scores twice and John Vanbiesbrouck calls it the "Rat Trick". Well, you've all seen the YouTube videos of thousands of plastic rats raining down onto the ice. There are great shots of guys like Barrasso hiding in the net from the rats. That was a special season and the most fun I've had covering a team.

Winter Classic, Yay or Nay? If the Wild were to get one, would you want to have it held at TCF Bank Stadium or Target Field? Who would you choose to have the Wild play?

I'm for it. I haven't been inside Target Field, but TCF Bank Stadium is a great environment, and with that open end would be a great place for it. If it were me, I'd pick Vancouver because there's a hatred there.

What is still the biggest unanswered question for the upcoming season?

Boy, there are so, so many. But the main one is will they be able to turn the switch and be consistent in the new system? They did it in bits and pieces. There were 5 minutes stretches against Philly that were really fun to watch, but they gave up 39 shots and 35 quality chances. They can't do that and be successful.

Who is your impact guy?

[Brent] Burns is the guy who is going to be key. He looks like he's going to be extraordinary in the new system. He shouldn't be unheralded, but Greg Zanon is a fantastic signing. Now he isn't going to score 14 goals like Marc-Andre Bergeron, but he's going to block 300 shots and be the guy on the ice at the end of the game. He puts his body in harms way night in and night out, and risks injuries. If he stays healthy, he will be a rock solid defender.

We've heard that Josh Harding is going to get more time this season. Is that to showcase him for say ... Chicago? What kind of player/pick/prospect can we expect for Harding?

They could've traded him by now for picks and prospects. What they're hoping for is a team like Chicago or a true conteder to suffer an injury and need a goalie. There's no rush right now though. He's too precious an asset to give up for nothing. They would love to turn him into a scorer, and that's the way I see this going. That being said, he isn't an unrestricted free agent after this season, so they can still take their time and get the best deal possible.

Versus v. DirectTV. Whose fault is it?

I don't know whose fault it is, but its gotta get fixed. It makes the league look amateur. It needs to get resolved and Comcast and DirectTV need to get it taken care of. Both are NHL partners and the league may have to step in. You can't have your national partner on Satellite.

Is this a rebuilding team?

This is a better team than last year. They missed by 3 pts, added a perennial star in Martin Havlat, added a 25 goal guy in Petr Sykora. This is a transitional year. The problem is that everyone else got better too, and has better, younger talent than the Wild. If this were a Lemaire team, in that system, they'd make the playoffs. No knock against Richards, but it takes time to install a new system. I've covered a rebuilding team. This is definitely not a rebuilding team. I disagree with anyone who says this is a rebuilding year or that last years' team was better. This is a team that has to learn a new system, has a horrible road schedule and is in the hardest conference. Next season, they're in the playoffs. Houston will be a better team this year too. They have more NHL experience. They have guys like Andy Hilbert, Colton Gillies, Petr Kalus, Craig Weller, and those guys who are ready to come up will be able to produce, and remember this was a team that was a round away from the AHL title last season. Fans will have to be patient at the beginning, but this is a year in transition, not rebuilding.

Colton Gillies assigned to Houston, Craig Weller and Nathan Smith on waivers, Andy Hilbert update

nathaneide — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 17:58:14 -0000

According to Michael Russo and sources close to the team, Colton Gillies has been assigned to Houston, where he will start the season with the Aeros, getting a lot of game time. This is probably the best course of action to make sure he's ready when he gets the call, and I can't imagine he doesn't get a call at some point this season.

Craig Weller and Nathan Smith have been placed on waivers, and will likely clear and head to Houston as well.

Andy Hilbert will not be heading to Philadelphia for the final preseason game with the Flyers. Russo is reporting that Hilbert has likely been given a two-way offer to start the season in Houston and Todd Richards is waiting on Hilbert's decision.

Rosters need to be finalized on Wednesday, by 2:00pm.

Minnesota Wild @ Chicago Blackhawks: Game Recap

nathaneide — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 04:24:02 -0000

More photos » by Charles Cherney - AP

2 months ago: Chicago Blackhawks' Rob Klinkhammer, center, celebrates with teammates Brent Seabrook (7) and Jake Dowell (8) after tipping in the winning goal during the third period of a preseason NHL hockey game against the Minnesota Wild in Chicago on Friday, Sept. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/Charles Cherney)

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Minnesota Wild 3-4 Chicago Blackhawks

At least Martin Havlat looks game ready.

The Wild tonight could only amass 18 shots. Things aren't still aren't looking so good for the new system. However, it's hard to tell if it's injuries to regulars that is having this effect, or if it's because the guys aren't grasping the system very well. In the first, the Wild played its best period of hockey in the preseason. They looked like they had captured the essence of the new offense with nine shots and two goals (one by James Sheppard on a great feed from Martin Havlat and one by Brent Burn, rocketing home a slapper from a nice pass from Greg Zanon), but things unraveled in the second.

The second period was a flashback to December of 2008. Guys were out of position, the team was scuffling to clear the zone. Passes were ineffectual. Players tried to do too much and they were penned in their own zone.

The worst part of the preseason has to be the injuries, but injuries happen in the NHL and teams need to overcome them in order to succeed. Everyone on the ice needs to be on the same page, or at least in the same playbook. As Michael Russo stated however,

Richards said he’s using St. Louis and Chicago as a measuring stick, and the Wild has a lot of work to do. He wants the Wild to take a page out of the Blackhawks’ book. Chicago’s forwards pursue the puck relentlessly, Richards said, while the Wild continues to have one forward go and two hang back — a staple of yesteryear, he says.

This is disheartening. The Wild are still getting lazy and falling back into old habits.

Speaking of injuries, Kim Johnsson left the game with a leg injury of some kind. The team has not released the extent of his injury, but Todd Richards indicated that it might be a result of Johnsson's first back to back games of the year. If this is the case, it could be a groin, or just soreness. Let's hope that's all it is. Johnsson is going to need to be 100% this season. He'll be one of the go to guys on the blue line. He'll be responsible for leading the break and using some of that offense he had in Philadelphia, before losing it in Lemaire's system.

And speaking of Philadelphia (nice segue, huh?) the Wild end the preseason against the Flyers, then rosters need to be in place by 2pm on Wednesday.

The final cuts will be interesting. The Wild is $797,000 of the $56.8 million cap with 24 players, one more than they’re allowed. But Derek Boogaard probably starts the season on IR to get to 23, but that doesn’t solve the cap problems - Russo

So, what do you do? My gut says Colton Gillies, Matt Kassian, Danny Irmen, Robbie Earl, Nathan Smith and Scott are headed to Houston. Andy Hilbert, Nathan Smith and Jaime Sifers make the squad. Marco Scandella heads back to the Q. This leaves Craig Weller. If I remember correctly, he can go to Houston without waivers, but has a one-way contract. I just don't know what goes on there, but I think he stays. Let's see who is on the ice for Philly.

Hockey Wilderness Three Stars

Patrick Kane (2 G)
Martin Havlat (1 G, 1 A)
Antti Miettinen (2 A)

Questions to Answer

Will Martin Havlat be booed or cheered? I'm not certain what happened here.
With no Danny Irmen and no Robbie Earl, does Andy Hilbert actually make the squad? I think he does. He's put in a fantastic camp.
Is anyone else sick of watching the Houston Aeros, and can't wait to see the Wild actually take the ice? I definitely want to see the regulars.
Will there be less confusion amongst the Wild tonight? For one period, yeah.
Why have the Wild played 5 games and the Blackhawks only 3? They are playing exhibition games in Switzerland, then starting the season there against the Florida Panthers.

Wild vs Blackhawks coverage

Wild vs Blackhawks recap

Minnesota Wild vs. Chicago Blackhawks: Game Recap

nathaneide — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 04:08:12 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Wild players Benoit Pouliot (67), Tyler Cuma (71) and John Scott, upper right, congratulate right wing Martin Havlat (14), of the Czech Republic, after his goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during the first period of a preseason NHL hockey game in St. Paul, Minn., Sunday, Sept. 20, 2009. (AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

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Minnesota Wild 3-0 Chicago Blackhawks

Martin Havlat needed only 84 seconds to enact revenge on his old squad, burying a Benoit Pouliot centering pass past a sprawling Antti Niemi. Havlat wasn't done though, as he added his second goal of the preseason and second in a Wild sweater from Cal Clutterbuck and Kim Johnsson.

Petr Sykora also got his preseason off to a flying start with a tip-in goal in the third period, assisted by Owen Nolan and Kyle Brodziak.

Aside from the three goals, it was a big of an ugly, chippy affair with five fights and 79 total PIM.

Two home games, two 2-goal performances and two shutouts. Can't complain about the way the preseason is going so far.

Hockey Wilderness Three Stars

Martin Havlat (2 G)
Petr Sykora (1 G)
Cal Clutterbuck (1 A)

Questions to Answer

Will Martin Havlat show up his old squad? Yes. Yes he did, and it is great to see him scoring already.
Is this the last we'll see of Andy Hilbert and Danny Irmen? Well, considering that Hilbert was a late scratch, that doesn't bode well for him. Irmen had 12:20 in TOI, but only amassed 2 shots and didn't count in the scoring.
Where on earth is Mikko Koivu? I think it's safe to assume Koivu will be playing in the either the next game at Columbus or the final preseason matchup against St. Louis.
Can Tyler Cuma shine in his first action of the year? Cuma had a fight, but logged 22:10 TOI in a decent performance. He's likely fighting for the final defenseman spot with Jaime Sifers.
Is Pouliot just leading us along to leave us wanting more, or is today his last chance to perform before heading back to Houston? Benoit Pouliot had a great assist, centering the first line of Havlat and Sykora, in only 12:10 TOI. That being said, Michael Russo was impressed with Pouliot tonight, and that says a lot to me.

Game Highlights

Todd Richards Interview

Petr Sykora Interview

Minnesota Wild make cuts, Petr Sykora signs, Nobody named Captain

nathaneide — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:49:46 -0000

Wild signs Sykora; Lineup for Friday’s game vs. Columbus
The Wild signed winger Petr Sykora today to a one-year contract for $1.6 million. The signing leaves the team $800,000 from salary cap, meaning it’ll be much harder for forwards Colton Gillies and Andy Hilbert to make the team.

Wild make first round of cuts

Sykora takes to new team right away | StarTribune.com
Despite a four-hour drive to Prague, a flight to Amsterdam and a cross-Atlantic journey on Tuesday, Petr Sykora practiced with the Wild on Wednesday afternoon. Yes, there were signs of jet lag, but Sykora, one of the NHL's most consistent goal scorers for a decade, filled the back of the net and was so vocal you would have sworn he'd been hanging with his new teammates for years.

New Wild sniper Petr Sykora has simple game plan: I shoot - TwinCities.com
Petr Sykora stepped on the Xcel Energy Center ice wearing Wild gear for the first time Wednesday and appeared right at home. "No need for him to be nervous," coach Todd Richards said. "I'm sure he's been in a lot more situations than I've been in."

In Wild coach Todd Richards' grade book, no one has earned a 'C' yet - TwinCities.com
Coach Todd Richards declined to hand out the captain's "C" for the Wild's first exhibition game Tuesday night against the Blues in St. Louis, which the Wild lost 3-1. "To me, that's an important thing," he said. "You don't just throw it around, put it on guys. It signifies something. Again, it's something we'll spend a lot of time on, and we'll take our time."

Players get bit of a breather after camp's brisk start | StarTribune.com
"The last couple days have been hard practices, and talking to the players, there's a little bit of soreness and fatigue," Richards said. "The fourth day of training camp is a little hump to get over. We looked it as a day where we can teach something and get something out of it while also letting the guys recover." Richards unveiled what could be the first power-play unit -- forwards Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu and Martin Havlat with point men Marek Zidlicky and Brent Burns.

Minnesota Wild @ St. Louis Blues: Game Recap

nathaneide — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:13:15 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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Minnesota Wild 1-3 St. Louis Blues

Well, since this isn't on TV, we'll let the esteemed Michael Russo take over from here:

Wild lost 3-1 at St. Louis, but as mentioned in the paper, Wild brought its minor-league team mostly and St. Louis many of its real players. Of the Wild guys, you’ll like Greg Zanon. Steady Eddy, and tough as nails. As advertised, just throws himself in front of shots. Shane Hnidy had some Martin Skoula moments, but also tough as nails in a different way. Won’t back down to anyone. James Sheppard played well. Kyle Brodziak was all over the place. I don’t see a ton of skill there, but won 13 of 16 draws (as you all know, the Wild need that) and had six shots. To me, he’s a center, not wing. Andy Hilbert worked his you know what off, but he’s thrown down pretty easily and as mentioned previously, with Petr Sykora here now, it’ll be a little more difficult for him to make the team. Craig Weller and Colton Gillies were minus-3’s. Benoit Pouliot scored a goal and didn’t back down physically in skirmishes, but there’s still a lack of drive every shift.

So ... as said yesterday, this team wasn't supposed to win. This was simply to find out who is ready to learn the system and who should just get on the plane and head to Houston ASAP.

Hockey Wilderness Three Stars

Benoit Pouliot (1 G)
Matt Kassian (first NHL action ever)
Todd Richards (There has to be some reason the team had 34 shots, right?)

Questions to Answer

Who are these guys? Your 2009-2010 Houston Aeros!
What can we possibly take away from Todd Richards' first game with this roster? They'll shoot the puck.
Will Petr Kalus and Benoit Pouliot find new life with a new coach and GM? Pouliot scored and played physically, but inconsistently. Kalus played physically but inconsistently. Sounds like same old same old with these guys.
Why is St. Louis taking this game this seriously? As it turns out, they're jumping right into it, heading to Sweden for exhibition play. Oh, and it was a home game. We'd be pissed too if last night's Wild lineup was out there this Friday.
How effing happy are you that hockey is back??? You have no idea.

Grading the Islanders: Jeff Tambellini, timeless message board fodder

Dominik — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 21:46:35 -0000

by Julie Jacobson - AP

Proof that it can happen ... but can it possibly happen often enough?

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I do not take on this task happily. If I thought trucking out oft-injured whipping boy Andy Sutton for review was a case of leading a lamb -- albeit a very large one -- to slaughter, I don't know what you call putting Jeff Tambellini up for a grade.

Unlike a guy such as Frans Nielsen, Jeff Tambellini's merits have been debated, rebated, redebated, and driven into the ground over and over and over again on pretty much every forum (online or in-bar) out there. Due to the passage of time without improved results, his supporters camp has gotten smaller. But even today, you will find those who say he never got a chance (ice time, coach's confidence, ample power play time) matching up against those who say his first chance was one too many. In between is a grey area that begs how to seize an opportunity when you get it, no matter how brief.

The killer? By most accounts he's the nicest, most level-headed guy you could meet. Can he serve a role that keeps him in this league? He has one more year to try to prove it.

Jeff Tambellini

#15 / Left Wing / New York Islanders

Height: 5-11

Weight: 186

Born: Apr 13, 1984

NHL Seasons: (parts of) 4

Contract: $587,500 this year, then RFA

'08 Preseason View: Surely this is the last chance...right?

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	TOI	PPtoi	SHtoi	Hits	Sh%
2008 - 09 Jeff Tambellini	65	7	8	15	-20	32	0	13:06	0:52	0:07	99	7.1

Random Fact: In 2003's first round, Tambellini was selected (by L.A.) one spot above Anaheim's Corey Perry, and 12 spots behind fellow prodigal prospect Robert Nilsson.

"This is our concern, Dude" Fact: Okay, he's entering Year 5 with the Islanders, and it's been 11 goals (excluding some shootout beauties) in 140 games. Granted, mixed messages and several Bridgeport demotion/callups during that time haven't helped the confidence, but...

The Story: It was another Tambellini year. A slow, rocky start led to a two-week December demotion to get the proverbial scorer's confidence back. But upon his return, he still had a few healthy scratches, and he remained an overlooked option in many offensive situations. That blistering shootout wrist shot is sublime, though; grant him that.

Tambellini's ice time per game was 13th among Islanders forwards (that includes Mike Comrie, who was traded, and Mike Sillinger, who returned for seven games before shutting it down for good). He averaged under a minute of PP time per game -- sometimes he'd get a decent shot, but usually he was on the garbage-time cleanup unit. So that's not a great opportunity nor confidence builder for a guy who's supposed to score goals, but still: He didn't shine when given the (however brief) chance on the featured PP unit. In about an hour of total 5-on-4 PP time last year, he had zero goals, zero assists, and was the worst-rated Islanders 5-on-4 forward to average at least 30 seconds a game.

A Crisis of Roles: The question was brought up to Scott Gordon: When you have a successful AHL scorer who isn't getting it done in the NHL, what then? Gordon mentioned former P-Bruin and Gordon underling Andy Hilbert as a successful convert, a guy who remade himself into a defensive checking forward: "What do you want to be -- a half-million dollar all-around player in the NHL, or maybe a hundred thousand dollar scorer in the American League?" But Tambellini wasn't really used on the penalty kill last year, and you know what else? Andy Hilbert is still an unsigned free agent. That doesn't bode well, though it may slightly open up the chance for Tambellini in that diminished role.

Get this, though: Tambellini was third among Islanders forwards in hits -- behind only regular bruisers Tim Jackman and Trent Hunter. Clearly, one part of Tambellini's attempt to adapt his game for coaches, and to increase the intensity they so desired, was to bang bodies. He did that, and he did it fairly well given his size, without taking a bunch of bad penalties in the process.

But is that his ideal role? Is it achievable? Is it just an unfortunate byproduct of the "tweener" status that has plagued his stunted evolution into an NHL forward? Put it this way: If Jeff Tambellini were given a half-season (some would say another half-season) on an NHL scoring line, could he produce enough to stay there? So far, the indication is a resounding no. He hasn't gotten to the traffic areas enough and he doesn't get his rather lethal shot off quickly enough. Does that mean you right him off now, or could he still do bloom late, at age 25?

Well, we'll find out. He's got one more year on the contract. If he starts this year off well, I can see him sticking around. But what is "well?" If he hasn't bloomed by the third quarter and hasn't taken ownership of an alternative role, I see the Islanders burying him while creating room to evaluate other, younger forwards. It's been mentioned several times before, but this, finally, is his make-or-break moment.

The Poem (haiku this time):

Flowers reaching Fall
Such is Jeff Tambellini
Will there be a Spring?

The Grade: Regulars know the drill. New visitors and frequent lurkers, vote your grade relative to the expectations you had going into last season. That means taking what you expected of him and saying whether he went above or below that. Meanwhile, answer any of the questions above or explain your grade in comments, whether you want to take on what went wrong, what could(?) still go right, and where you see things going this coming season.

Poll

Relative to your 2008-09 preseason expectations (so if you expected disaster, you can't give him a '1'), vote what you thought of Jeff Tambellini's season.

10-I expected carnage and this was well above that

0 votes

9

0 votes

8-Still well exceeded my expectations

0 votes

7

1 votes

6-Met expectations +

0 votes

5-Met expectations -

2 votes

4

9 votes

3-8g-7a-15p was worse than I thought

27 votes

2

5 votes

1-I was expecting a 20-goal scorer

16 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

Wellwood's Battle

Yankee Canuck — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 15:38:07 -0000

More photos » by Darryl Dyck - AP

See what happens when you cross the Gillis? (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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Kyle Wellwood is slated to go toe to toe with Mike Gillis on Tuesday at his arbitration hearing. Wellwood and his agent will argue that 27 points and 10 PP goals is good enough for a far heftier raise than what Gillis qualified him at (a little north of a million dollars). Gillis will argue that he played himself off the first two lines, scored five of his 18 goals after Christmas and needs to show far more of a complete game to be worthy of higher salary.

Surely Gillis wouldn't mind him back (he did qualify him afterall). Last season Wellwood accepted his ever-changing role without any complaints (SOB should take note). He was surprisingly proficient on the PP and became a decent part of the checking line when the playoffs rolled around. The only thing Pudge didn't do last year was play in net and maybe he would have if Lu needed a bathroom break.

But Gills has a team to manage with precious few millions left to find a defenseman, extend Lu, pay for a team outing to see Megan Fox in Transformers 2, you know the essentials. Personally I think the Wellwood debate has become some sort of rallying cry in recent weeks. It reminds me of last summer when Vigneault looked like he was getting the axe and much of the online reaction was "But he won the Jack Adams!" which was fine until you looked and realized that award doesn't mean anything.

I wouldn't pretend to know what his angle is, but I have to ask: did Pudge choose to fight an uphill battle he can't win?

By choosing the arbitration route, I think he's got three things working against him:

1. The ES numbers

I started looking at this around 5:00 AM (because sleep is overrated) the other morning in the comments of another Wellwood post:

Pudge’s 27 points put him in the same family as Jochen Hecht ($2.3 million), Kyle Brodziak ($495,000), Andy Hilbert ($650,000), and Mike Comrie ($3.3 million). The lone difference were his 10 PP goals (55.5% of his total production last year) which you can argue this is an anomaly as it’s over double his career best (meanwhile his three PP assists was a career worst). Also at least five of those goals were rebounds off the board that found Wellwood with an open net staring at him. Wonderful timing, but not a skill that’s going to repeat itself year to year. On average, both Hansen and everyone’s punching bag Bernier had better point paces.
Demitra(!) and Hansen blocked more shots. Pudge had the third most giveaways on the team. His plus/minus was 2, good enough for 277th best in the league. And yes he had great face off percentage. So did Yanic Perreault in yester years and he was averaging damn near 12-15 points more a season in less games than Pudge.

That was my blurry-eyed start, but I basically cherry picked a handful of stats that fit at the time.

Along with his defensive play, I think we can casually agree that Wellwood's top two strengths last year were:

PP goals - 10 goals with the man advantage tied him for the team lead with KesLORD.
Faceoff winning percentage - He ended the season with 57.7%, the best on the team.

If we ignore SO's and empty net situations, and we know he's productive on the man advantage and damn near never used on the PK (run a report on him here), then what's left is his even strength play. To do so, we'll need Behind the Net, every stat hound's best friend (whereas decimal points frankly scare me).

Right off the bat, he had the third lowest ES TOI in front of regulars Ryan Johnson and Darcy Hordichuk who we can agree are limited to playing in specific situations.

Wellwood's season Corsi was -5.2. The Corsi number, for those who don't know, is similar to +/- but shows how many shots were directed at the individual's net (denoted with a "-") and how many at the opponents (denoted with a "+"). It's a quick look at how effective a player may be at even strength and, for Pudge, he's wedged between Sundin (-.9) and Bolduc (-5.3). Both his linemates later in the season were lower: Bernier ( -7.2) and Pyatt (-10.6).

His Corsi tells just part of the story. Wellwood's 5-on-5 rating was -0.07 which reflects the shift in a team's GF/GA differential when Pudge was on the ice per 60 minutes of ice time. -0.07 is middle of the pack, if not edging into the lower ranks. Both linemates later in the season were also lower: Bernier (-0.45) and Pyatt (-0.87). Not great numbers for someone who is prided on defensive skills.

The quality of the competition Pudge faced was ranked a 0.00 (the higher the number, the higher the "relative strength" of the opposition he's on the ice against). Both Pyatt (.05) and Bernier (.03) saw stronger players so Wellwood's qualcomp was probably affected by missing games and stints on the fourth line where guys like Hordichuk are ranking at the qualcomp bottom (depending on the minimum amount of games you're looking at). Regardless, Wellwood saw the average in his opposition.

Playing with his unemployment brothers or sometimes with Hordichuk did hinder Wellwood's EV effectiveness. Pudge's qualteam ranking (the quality of his linemates) was -0.25 or third worst on the team (hell, even here Hordichuk brings down Johnson who was his regular linemate). So it's unfair to suggest Wellwood's struggles are his alone. Though it does beg three additional questions: can Wellwood alone elevate the play of the third line? How does resurrecting two/thirds of the same line (Wellwood/Bernier) position the team any better heading into next season? And does Vigneault trust him at him at ES regardless of linemates?

Numbers don't always tell the complete story, but they do show Wellwood had a limited skill set last year: if he wasn't out on the PP, then he wasn't offering much. Yes he can play defensively and maybe more digging around would find greater statistical relevance on that front, but he alone wasn't elevating the line either. No matter where he ends up, he needs a better regular season at ES if he wants to be paid as a premier player.

2. The "kid"

Remember a few seasons ago when the center ranks for the Canucks were laughable? You'd have Morrison, Henrik and then a bunch of no namers (leading to hilarious Chouinard-like experiments). Barring another Sundin situation, the top two slots are Hank and Kesler leaving Pudge to be in line for the third or fourth slot.

Last year he eventually fell to the third line, however that's exactly where many have Cody Hodgson pegged to start his NHL career. There's a whole host of variables that come with that, not the least of which is Hodgson needing a good camp to show he's ready for the dance. But the safe money is that he'll make it.

Wellwood may have had a stronger footing a few years ago, but if it really does come down to Hodgson Vs Wellwood, I imagine management would be behind Hodgson. Rarely have you seen a prospect so well-groomed and anyone connected to the organization is at risk of breaking their legs falling over themselves praising him and his future. If he makes the cut, then expect Hodgson to get limited ice-time and choice opportunities on the PP to become more acclimated to the game and that could come at Wellwood's expense. It's a gamble to replace an experienced player with a rookie, but a gamble worth taking, especially if it saves cap space to shore up the team in other areas.

Pudge could always shift to wing, but in that case, he's still in trouble because he'll be fighting Bernier, Raymond, Rypien and Hansen (should he stay) along with Grabner and maybe a prospect like Desbiens or Glass for one of the remaining slots on the wing in the bottom six. There's always a chance for the top six if when Demitra gets injured...

3. The baggage

This one is completely subjective, but if I'm Gillis I approach Pudge the same way I did with SOB. Something like "Look, we want you here but X and Y have to be better on your end. So here's a one year deal and we'll work with every step of the way on fixing X and Y. If you do, great, we'll talk long term next summer. If not, we'll adjust expectations and see what's in our mutual best interest then."

On the level and fair. SOB agreed, presumably because he knows he can play better and believes he can improve the Vancouver squad at the same time. Wellwood, for whatever the private criticisms are, is viewing it differently.

That's clearly his right, but he's doing it on a team where the heart and soul guys (Kesler & Burrows), the youth (Edler), the A list (Sedins) and hopefully the goalie are all taking less to an extent in the hopes of creating a better team and a winning atmosphere.

We're coming up on the end of July and there's plenty of FA's left, a reality of the economic climate and gun-shy GM's who aren't opening their wallets quickly (except Sather). Now along comes Wellwood, hat in hand, taking the team that gave him a shot to arbitration while only one year removed from multiple game scratches, fairly obvious consistency problems and going ignored on waivers twice which itself followed a camp where the coach publicly blasted his conditioning and a summer fall out with soccer and the Leafs organization based on, yup, poor conditioning (which he blames the Leafs for).

We Canuck fans are quick to point out the better points of his character: his versatility, his willingness to help out the team in whatever capacity, etc. But if we're going to be honest you have to take everything into account and his past isn't exactly a ringing endorsement. Are other GM's taking notice one way or the other?

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I would be happy to see Wellwood back at a number that makes sense. I would be pleased to see him out there with his shifty skills. I'd be ecstatic to see him (or anyone for that matter) score on the power play. Maybe if his agent and Gillis had more time to hash out whatever the specific number is each side is looking for it wouldn't have gotten to this. But now it's going to be in the arbitrator's hands and 4.4 million in cap space, while certainly not impossible, leaves very little wiggle room.

Again, Wellwood is entitled to his arbitration rights, but he isn't entitled to a roster slot just because he was a shootout and powerplay specialist last season that wants to be paid like a complete package next season.

Maybe Wellwood wins with the decision next week. If he does, good for him. But that doesn't mean he's a Canuck when camp opens. And, if Gillis balks at the decision and Pudge becomes a UFA, how damaging may that be to the team, if at all?

Guys The Oilers Should At Least Call: Andy Hilbert

Jonathan Willis — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 22:13:33 -0000

Andy Hilbert

#11 / Left Wing / New York Islanders

Height: 5-11

Weight: 194

Born: Feb 06, 1981

Drafted: 37th overall, 2000

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	SOG	PCT	QualComp	QualTeam	Corsi/60
2008 - 09	67	11	16	27	-3	22	167	6.6	2nd	7th	-5.6

Andy Hilbert has spent most of his career as a perpetual prospect, with the label "possible top-six forward" firmly affixed. It made sense; he scored very well in college and in the AHL, but somewhere along the way Hilbert made a transformation. Scoring stars who spend a lot of time in the minors seem to make one of two decisions:

Spend a lot of their career in Europe
Develop in other areas

Hilbert did the latter, turning into a defensively responsible, bottom-six guy. He got job with Chicago, and got picked up by Pittsburgh when the Blackhawks tried to send him back to the minors. He found himself on Sidney Crosby's wing and scored 18 points in 19 games.

That was the situation in July of 2006, when Hilbert was signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Islanders. Despite that flash of offensive ability in Pittsburgh, his goal and point totals in New York have been underwhelming:

2006-07: 81GP - 8G - 20A - 28PTS
2007-08: 70GP - 8G - 8A - 16PTS
2008-09: 67GP - 11G - 16A - 27PTS

Yet, there is one thing that stands out about Hilbert: his plus/minus. Here are his numbers for those three seasons, and in brackets next to them the Islanders' total plus/minus as a team:

2006-07: +10 (+5)
2007-08: +2 (-51)
2008-09: -3 (-76)
Totals: +9 (-122)

That's significant. Andy Hilbert has consistently put up decent +/- numbers over three seasons with one of the NHL's worst franchises. It isn't easy to do that. It becomes more difficult given that Hilbert:

routinely played against top opponents
routinely played with poor linemates
took far more defensive zone than offensive zone draws

Last season, Hilbert earned 700,000 $. He isn't likely to get much of a raise on that this year; in fact, he may be in tight to get a regular NHL job at all. If the price is right, Hilbert could be at worst a very effective fourth-liner, and at best a possible replacement for Ethan Moreau on the third line. He'll be useful on the penalty-kill and he'll certainly do more to help the Oilers win hockey games than most of the young fringe guys looking for a lineup spot.