SB Nation - Josh Bailey

Rangers vs. Islanders: "The Little Brother Syndrome", everything to lose, nothing to gain

Jim Schmiedeberg — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:37:59 -0000

Little brother comes to town tonight (photo courtesy of LIfe.com)

New York Sports is replete with inner rivalries. The Yankees and Mets, the Giants and Jets, the Rangers and Islanders, and even the Knicks and Nets, although I can't say I've ever heard anyone ever get really excited for a Knicks-Nets game.

But each of these rivalries has a big brother-little brother complex to them. The Yankees have been around over 100 years, average a championship every 4 seasons, and have a worldwide fan base, while the Mets haven't had a team identity in over 20 years, and have just two measly banners to their credit, and years of futility and underachievement in their history.

The Giants and Jets follow a very similar path, with the Giants being one of the oldest teams in the league, numerous championships, and really only one prolonged bad stretch in their history (the 70's). The Jets have always lived in the shadow, and continue to live off a championship that happened forty years ago. (Yes Joe, we've heard the "Guarantee" story, at this point I can tell it better than you.)

That brings us to the Rangers-Islanders. The Rangers, with their 80-plus years of history, the flashy names, the bright lights of Broadway, and when newspapers pay attention to hockey: the headlines. The Islanders? Sure, they had their amazing dynasty in the early 80's, but they still suffer the same fate as the Mets, Jets, and I guess the Nets. I call it "The Little Brother Syndrome".

If you have younger siblings, remember when you used to play games with them? You'd beat them, usually by a wide margin, but you were supposed to. You were the big bad brother or sister: older, smarter, and presumably with more tools and resources for defeating your younger opponent. It felt good to win, it usually does, but there was also something missing because you felt like you were just doing what you were supposed to.

When the Yankees and Mets play, if the Yankees win, the Yankee fan mostly takes it in stride, its just another day at the office for them. Same goes for the Giants when playing the Jets, and Rangers when playing the Islanders. It's just big brother doing what big brother does.

But when little brother gets the best of you, your life becomes a living hell. Jet fans live to beat the Giants, and some Met fans would be ok with the Mets being 6-156 as long as those 6 wins came against the Yankees. Same rule applies for Islander fans; when the Isles beat the Rangers it makes their whole year. If you've ever been around an Islander fan after they've beaten the Rangers, you will know what I mean.

And in the case of the Islanders, baby bro is catching up to the Rangers. They are a hard working team that has played better than their record, and they have a flashy new toy in John Tavares. Meanwhile, big brother is struggling right now, his head isn't quite screwed on straight, like his girlfriend dumped him or something. But the Isles are still the little brother, and a couple of games against little brother may be just what the Rangers need to get their confidence going again.

Let's hope so, because nothing is worse than losing to your little brother.

Also, we are doing a Special "Blueshirt Banter Radio Rally" at 5:30 PM, leading up to the game. You can click the link below to listen to the show:

Blueshirt Banter Radio w/Mouth and Jim

This & That: DiPietro, Brooklyn, Team USA, blowout post-mortem

Dominik — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:51:58 -0000

A few timely(ish) links about what's going on with the Islanders:

Last night was Josh Bailey's 100th NHL game. Officially, he had two hits, three attempted shots -- and still zero shots on goal, making it 23 consecutive periods.
The Isles released an statement about Rick DiPietro seeing more specialists. Worst word: "timeline." I thought Adam's take on this saga was spot on: Concise, to the point, a mix of realism and empathy. At this point (and since last spring, really), that's all we can go with.
In addition to Roloson's to-the-point observation on how no one showed up last night, Mark Streit had this: "When it's 7-1, it's tough to just turn the page." Exactly. At home, no less. For shame.
Nick goes into some interesting thought exercises on the Brooklyn buzz. [Let There be Light(house)]
For you draft dreamers: Tyler Seguin was cut from Canada's WJC camp. Taylor Hall was not.
Update: Speaking of WJC, a FanHouse profile of Isles prospect Matt Donovan.
Team USA at the Olympics: Brian Burke says there are three spots still open and about six candidates. What do you bet Kyle Okposo is one of those candidates? On the one hand, he hasn't scored in a month. On the other, he generates offense, works his butt off, and it's impossible to watch him and not think, "He could help a team in a short tourney."
Finally, an interesting look from James Mirtle that relates to the crunch of quasi-.500 teams in the dregs of the Eastern standings: "One key factor in why the bottom half of the Eastern Conference is so poor is the fact the Western Conference has been beating the tar out of the East all year."

More on that last topic as it relates to the Islanders later today...

Islanders Gameday: Panthers prepare for the Schremp Experience

Dominik — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:43:14 -0000

Gordon will likely use Bailey on the left wing for at least a bit to give his young center more ice time. Beyond John Tavares' offensive production and Frans Nielsen's solid defensive play, Gordon said he is seeing a lot of potential out of fellow centerman Rob Schremp right now and wants to keep him in the mix.

>>Katie Strang, Isles Files (sub.)

Rob Schremp has two powerplay points and two minus-1's in his last two games. On the surface, that is the rap on him in a nutshell. But in reality, neither goal against falls on him and in fact, in two games since his return from a long spell waiting as a healthy scratch, he has held his own just fine. Holding his own, considering his potential to help the powerplay, is not a bad proposition. So tonight, fresh off his entertaining first NHL goal celebration, the Schremp Experience (and the Jesse Joensuu Sequel) continues.

Florida Panthers (12-14-7) at New York Islanders (12-13-7)
7 p.m. EST | Nassau [gloriously unsponsored] Coliseum | MSG+, radio
South Florida Feline Friends: Litter Box Cats (SBN) | Sun Sentinel updates

If only Schremp could play defense. No really -- I mean if only Schremp were a defenseman. Because the Isles are running a little low in that department. They're deep enough at center to have two checking centers on the fourth line and give 2008 1st-rounder Bailey a spell on wing, but the blueline is thin and crippled.

Today's morning skate probably determines whether Andy Sutton returns from his groin injury or banged-up Jack Hillen gives it a go after a shot off the foot took him out of the Bruins game. Failing that, next-in-line Dustin Kohn is battling an abdominal strain, so ... take a number. [UPDATE: Strang says both Sutton and Hillen are in tonight, which means the next drama is...who's scratched? You know I hope it's not MacDonald, but...]

Streaky Kittens

Not that the Islanders can whine about injuries. The Panthers come in still without last year's breakout scorer David Booth, as well as reliable producer Cory Stillman. Greg Campbell and Dominic Moore are listed as "day to day."

And the Panthers have a nearly identical record to the Islanders', though rather than hop around both sides of .500 like the Isles have, the Panthers have been a streaky team. They've had four separate streaks of at least four losses (granted, two of them were shootout-inflated), while November featured a run of eight consecutive games where they salvaged at least a point (5-0-3, including two shootout wins). Tonight they arrive after beating the Devils outright Friday night and losing to the Penguins Saturday in OT. Wish I could say this is an oughta-win for the Isles, but the Cats can surprise.

Still, the Isles edge the Panthers in most team stats: More shots per game, more goals, fewer shots against, fewer goals allowed, better special teams. More #1 goalies, too. Which brings us to...

The Goalies

Scott Gordon has an interesting decision here, with the Rangers home-and-home coming up Wednesday and Thursday. Though they all count the same, those Rangers games are "big." Would Gordon put Old Man Roloson out there on back-to-back nights? And, assuming he wouldn't, would he give Martin Biron tonight's start to make sure he doesn't enter the Rangers series without having seen game action in over a week? [Update: Roloson was first off the ice this a.m.]

For what it's worth, in these teams' previous meeting, Dwayne Roloson gave up four goals on 42 shots as the Panthers took the shootout bonus point. Tomas Vokoun played in that one, stopping 36 of 40 Islanders shots.

Whoever the choices are, given these teams' go-go shooting gallery nature, I suspect they'll face a lot of pucks again.

Prediction: Josh Bailey gets a shot on goal. Rob Schremp Hockey gets a powerplay point.

Maple Leafs 3, Islanders 2: Tavares-led comeback erased by...Blake!

Dominik — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 05:01:12 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Happier times.

Browse more photos »

The first period looked like a repeat of the Roloson Miracle game, except with Dwayne not in the mood to play God again. (He was good, he just wasn't 58-save good.)

The second period was a wash -- the Islanders entered and exited down 2-0, with each team thinking it had reason for a better return.

But the third period, aided by a period-opening powerplay: Now that was a different story. The John Tavares Machine was fully operational, working from JT's office to the side of the crease, and the Islanders comeback was in effect. Tied up with five minutes to go, we just might steal another point or two in Toronto.

Then Jason Blake scored and fist-pumped and that was that.

Game Sum. | Event Sum. | Recaps: nhl.com | Isles official

Final - 12.9.2009	1	2	3	Total
New York Islanders	0	0	2	2
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	0	1	3

Complete Coverage >

But man if this game didn't give us some things to think about, in the napkin-sketching, roster-mixing kind of way. Take Tim Jackman out and you lose your de facto enforcer, but you get the chance to add another powerplay piece like Rob Schremp, who did not disappoint in that role ... and who held his own centering the 4th-line in limited minutes (9:30 total, 2:44 on the PP).

Kyle Okposo got the (quite beautiful) first assist on both Tavares goals, but the second assist was legitimately credited to Jeff Tambellini on the first and Schremp on the second. The powerplay actually looked functional.

Meanwhile, Schremp's 9:30 TOI was more than Josh Bailey, who ended up with a paltry 8:15 (just 0:23 on the PP). Bailey was also 0-5 on faceoffs. Hmmm...

We spend so much time (rightly so) fretting about this insufficient blueline. And lord knows Jon Sim and company get their licks for being used above their talent level. (Sim got 9:28, zilch on the PP, by the way.) But we can't forget the search for who on this team can score besides John Tavares and Matt Moulson -- who have accounted for all of the Islanders goals ~~in the last week~~ since Nov. 28 in New Jersey, when Richard Park scored the lone goal in a 6-1 loss. It's worth noting that without the ample powerplay time that Tavares gets, he doesn't have four goals in the last two games, either.

There remain several movable parts who have either not performed (one view) or not gotten the consistent chance to perform (the other view). In that group you'd have to include Bailey, Frans Nielsen, Tambellini, Schremp, Blake Comeau and Sean Bergenheim. With Bergenheim out, it opens up one more slot in the opportunity department.

Safe to say two of those guys (Comeau and Bergenheim) are destined to be non-top-six, two-way wingers with a focus on the defensive side. Two of those guys can probably only stick around if they can score consistently (Tamby, Schremp). And the remaining two are centers, centers with #2 potential, but centers who will need to show more than they have on the offensive side.

I'm not pigeon-holing anyone yet, but it would be fun to get more time with these guys being mixed up and down depending on performance and chemistry. Depending on the length of Bergenheim and Jackman's injuries, maybe that happens -- and maybe the people pining for more Schremp are at least temporarily appeased.

Or maybe somebody gets healthy again and Schremp goes back to the press box.

Either way, this now three-game losing streak is distressing, but it has put me back into the evaluation mode that I fully expected to be in all season. Which is a little different than living and dying with each win and loss to see how long the Isles can stick out this quasi-.500, point-per-game pace.

* * *

Game Thread Thanks

If you saw the game thread, that, friends, is what a Pension Plan Puppets invasion looks like. (If you weren't in there live, the PPP participation was all contained to the 1st intermission/2nd period, except for some stragglers.) Thanks for playing along and being nice hosts; thanks for not shouting at them just because they speak a different form of English. And thanks to our PPP visitors for bringing their unique brand of Leafdom hallucinations; I swear, those Canadian pharmaceuticals are something else.

Since our in-game threads range from quiet to noisy depending on the day and the opponent, it's fun to do accept a visiting high-volume tribe every once in a while to see how these can go at max capacity. Some games you need to get more off your chest in-the-moment, so just know it's always there (and some days you wish your comments would go away ... which is why the threads are a little more disposable). We only had one flare-up -- not bad for a high-volume cross-team visit, so no worries. Generally, I just want people here to welcome visitors, ignore trolls (or in rare cases, stomp them with extreme prejudice before they are banned) and be cool with each other.

On that note, I know I read most sites a lot more than I comment. So if there are things you want or don't want here, just let me know via comment (or via email if you want privacy or insist on remaining a lurker). I can't promise I'll answer every request (That's a nice way of saying your comment goes directly to our Customer Service Department, where it will be considered very important and our people will respond within 6 to 8 weeks).

But if your request fits I'll try, and if I know what people generally prefer (time, type of post, topic, etc.), it will help me know how bad I'm ticking you off when I insist on doing whatever the hell I want anyway. But seriously, for a moment: I just run this place so Islanders fans and hockey fans have a welcoming place to chat hockey, and hopefully I have a good idea every once in a while. That's all.

Let's Go Islanders. Let's Go Second Line.

Turkey Day: Pens blow a third period lead in Long Island

Hooks Orpik — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 22:42:59 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Kmonicek - AP

The kid over Brent Johnson's left shoulder is really excited about this goal by Josh Bailey.

Browse more photos »

Penguins vs Islanders coverage - Penguins vs Islanders recap - Penguins vs Islanders boxscore - SB Nation blog Lighthouse Hockey

The Pittsburgh Penguins trudged through a game against a feisty divisional opponent in the New York Islanders who had no problem sending the Pens away with no points (or turkey) in a day-after-Thanksgiving matinee.

The Pens were outshot 37-21 over the course of the game, and didn't seem to generate a lot of chances.

Scoring was opened in the first period by the Islanders when Josh Bailey scored his seventh goal of the season when he found a Mark Streit rebound and put it by Brent Johnson. Pittsburgh would get an equalizer before intermission when Evgeni Malkin swooped in the offensive zone and, from an angle almost AT the goal line, whipped a backhander that somehow found a hole in Dwayne Roloson's defense.

Pittsburgh would stake a claim to their only lead in the second period when Jordan Staal put a shot on goal that Roloson saved but the rebounded kicked right out to Matt Cooke who slammed it home for a 2-1 Penguin lead.

The Pens had a nasty third period -- credit the Islanders for playing well and taking over the game, but it wasn't pretty from the Pittsburgh perspective. Just 1:24 into the final period, Sean Bergenheim took a heavy wrist shot that caught Johnson too deep in his crease to tie the game. NYI would buzz the whole period, outshooting the Pens 18-5 in the 3rd, and John Tavares got his first career game winner from right in front when he found Freddy Meyer's rebound.

The game seemed to turn in the middle of the second period when the Penguins had an extended 5 on 3 power-play, one infraction was a double minor so they had plenty of time with the advantage. The stagnant PP couldn't make much happen and the Islanders seemed to rally and draw a lot of strength from that point on.
Good on Jordan Staal for his fight against Nate Thompson (it's the thought that counts) two minutes into the third period. Thompson boarded Pens defenseman Martin Skoula in an awkward and ugly looking hit. Staal was the closest player to it and stood up for his teammate. Was it worth the instigator penalty he was assessed and basically took him out of the game? In the big scheme of things, I think it was.
Dwayne Roloson was really good, several big time saves. And while Johnson was the busier of the goalies, he didn't look as poised or as solid as "Roly the Goalie" was on this afternoon. It's tough to blame the goalie too much, but I think Johnny would have liked to have the game-tying goal back.
A giveaway, a hit and no shots on goal in 9:15 of ice-time for Chris Bourque. Ray's kid only mustered a single shift of ice-time in the third period. As the Pens inch closer towards health the opportunities for him to create a niche for himself are running out.
Max Talbot ended up as a -2 on this game and is a -4 in his first five games of the season. Granted it's tough working yourself back into the swing of things when the other guys have been at it for two months, and even tougher when you're on the first line, but how much longer should this be the case?
Freddy Meyer ended up on the game with two assists, a +2, 4 hits and a takeaway. I took note of several good plays he made on Malkin. He was impressive today for the Isles.
In addition to the 37 shots on goal, New York also had 36 more that the Pens blocked or that missed the net. Pittsburgh only had 48 total shot attempts, so that NYI had 73 really demonstrates how much they had the puck (and were firing it). So congrats to them on the effort.

The early start of the game doubtlessly through off the normal rhythm and routines for the players today. More than a turkey hangover, that's the reason Pittsburgh didn't much look like themselves, though they certainly did look like maybe they imbibed too much at a holiday feast. There's little time to recover, as they'll travel back to Pittsburgh to face another division opponent, when the Rangers come to town for a Saturday night showdown.

Islanders 3, Penguins 2: That's how you do it

Dominik — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 22:28:59 -0000

The first third-period comeback win of the year. The first time the Isles got a lead and continued pressing play for the final six minutes. No defensive shell, no let-up, no chaos. They went into the third down 2-1, and responded by outshooting the Penguins 18-5 in the final frame (37-21 for the game).

That's how it's done, to the tune of a 3-2 win over the reigning Cup champs.

Game Sum. | Event Sum. | Recaps: nhl.com | Isles | Pensburgh

Final - 11.27.2009	1	2	3	Total
Pittsburgh Penguins	1	1	0	2
New York Islanders	1	0	2	3

Complete Coverage >

Maybe it doesn't happen if the Islanders don't get a huge morale-boosting tying goal by Sean Bergenheim just 1:24 into the third, on a sniper shot to the top post. But Bergenheim worked hard all game to produce something like that. It's always about exuberance with him -- like his ill-advised last-minute icing, when he went for the empty net instead of the soft clear. But his exuberance is what makes him such a diligent, hungry penalty killer and rally-smotherer. He was everywhere today, and he deserved this reward.

He wasn't the only one.

Jack Hillen committed two penalties -- they were soft penalties, "new NHL" penalties that he's been getting called on, using his body when a guy (Sidney Crosby) doesn't have the puck, or his arm to position when a guy (Jordan Staal) does. The latter is in part due to Hillen's small frame, but he is learning the finer points of this thin line. Meanwhile, he had another outstanding game -- the shorthanded breakaway wasn't the half of it -- and with today's plus-2 he is now a team-high plus-8 on the year in 22 games. Hillen logged 22:45 -- second most on the team despite his spending four minutes in the box.

Speaking strictly as a fan here and not as an analytical voice (whatever that is), it is some kind of joy to watch a guy blossom in front of our very eyes, isn't it? At this point, do you have an idea what his ceiling is? 'Cause I sure don't. I just look forward to watching him keep pushing to reach it. Hockey, baby.

The Penalty Kill. They killed off yet another 5-on-3, with Frans Nielsen and Bruno Gervais doing a lot of the dirty work. This one was notable because Andy Sutton -- often a go-to guy for Islanders 3-on-5 kills -- was in the box.

Josh Bailey goes to the net and scores, matching his season total from last year of 7 goals. He's been on a mini-tear lately, and he's another young player who we get to watch blossom. His healthy scratch a few weeks ago didn't even phase me: The kid is just 20. But if one healthy scratch is all he ever needs to focus his career in the right direction, consider us lucky. Today, combined with Jon Sim's second consecutive game of being a wonderful nuisance, Bailey, Sim and Jeff Tambellini formed a worthwhile third line.

John Tavares shines. Tavares was making moves and assertive plays with the puck we don't see every game. If his one-on-three move by Sergei Gonchar (Brent Johnson made the poke-check) were, say, Crosby on Hillen instead, then the defenseman gets a penalty. Instead, Gonchar received the benefit of the doubt, but Tavares served notice. Fitting, then, that he was there to knock in the winning goal, after an excellent deflection by Matt Moulson on Freddy Meyer's shot from the point.

That Moulson Guy. Yeah, that was him, again, standing in front of the net, banging bodies, creating space for Tavares and company. The Islanders' second-highest scorer is not living on coattails. He's an NHLer.

The Fourth Line. I've taken to cringing, as many teams' fans do, when their fourth line is out against a Crosby or Malkin. Today there was only one such shift that scared me to death, while they had a few shifts that were fairly even and one big shift in the second where Tim Jackman, Richard Park and Nate Thompson actually hemmed Crosby's line in their own zone. Those are the little bonus shifts that keep your team alive and send a buzz through the bench. Something about seeing David hang in there with Goliath. Good on them.

Honorable Mention: Pity Brent Johnson, who played an outstanding game for the Penguins and was left to the wolves. Frank at Pensburgh has noted how he's received no goal support, and today was no different. But Johnson nearly pulled a Boucher on the Isles. Difference was, today the Isles peppered for 60 minutes instead of just 40.

* * *

This is just the second time the Penguins under Dan Bylsma have entered the third period with a lead and lost the game in regulation. So entering today's third, I felt like "we don't deserve to be behind" but since we were, I was resigned.

But with this big win, it changes the outlook of the week -- imagine if our only win was the Toronto debacle? -- and makes tomorrow in Newark all the more interesting. The Devils tied the Bruins today 1-1 and took the shootout bonus point, so neither team has the "rest" excuse. To beat the Devils, it's going to take a little luck and more consistent, 60-minute work like we saw today. Hope they're up for it.

Flyers 2, Islanders 1: Boucher shuts the door

Dominik — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 17:48:41 -0000

Josh Bailey's scoring streak ended, but at least he formally received his wings: See, you haven't officially "made it" to the NHL until Chris Pronger foolishly crosschecks you behind the net, putting your team on the powerplay. Congratulations, Josh.

Unfortunately, additional powerplays didn't matter, because the Islanders couldn't replicate the sweet John Tavares pass to Trent Hunter that created their first and only goal. While the Islanders played very encouraging hockey for two periods, Brian Boucher shut the door and kept them from expanding the lead. (The post also helped, keeping Kyle Okposo in a slump.)

Game Sum. | Event Sum. | Recaps: nhl.com | Isles | BSH

Final - 11.25.2009	1	2	3	Total
Philadelphia Flyers	0	1	1	2
New York Islanders	1	0	0	1

Complete Coverage >

In stark contrast to the Leafs game (which, amusingly, still feels like a "loss" in my head, making this feel like a four-game losing streak), the Isles handily outplayed the Flyers and outshot them 28-17 through two. After a demoralizing tying goal in the final minute of the 2nd -- with the Flyers converting their only powerplay of the night -- the Islanders then got one measly shot in the third.

Scott Hartnell's goal, ramped up over Martin Biron by Brendan Witt's stick, felt inevitable. To have your way with a team for two periods -- getting under the Flyers' skin by playing aggressive, clean hockey -- and only come out of those two periods tied, well that sets up a classic let-down, woe-is-us scenario for the third: "We deserve to be ahead," "goals in the last minute hurt" -- all the hockey cliches are in play with a young team missing its vocal captain Doug Weight.

That said, there were were some positives and negatives. As marveled after Monday's OT win in Toronto: Hockey's a funny game, which is why Dwayne Roloson stole a win from an awful Islanders performance Monday, and Boucher stole a win from two periods of awful Flyers performance Wednesday. So it goes. The third-period letdown was really disappointing, but it felt like only a matter of time before the Flyers woke up and controlled play for a while.

That's not excusing their third period; just an observation that this happens when you have a good team on its heels but don't put them away. Scott Gordon, incidentally, was ticked off -- and distinguished this third-period failure from the other kind we're more familiar with:

"In the first and second periods, we took the ice that was available," Gordon said after watching his team lose its first home game since Nov. 7. "In the third period, the only thing we wanted to do was make plays, and as a result we didn't generate any speed coming into the zone. We were easy to defend against in the defensive zone because there was no element of speed."

Positive: Jon Sim. Credit where credit is due. He did his job, got under the Flyers' (and most importantly, Pronger's) skin with physical play and by setting up shop around their net. He is snake-bitten and unable to finish many choice chances, but I imagine Scott Gordon keeps using him because he creates those and because he can be this kind of pest.

Negative: The PK. Truly, the penalty kill has been great this year -- and overworked. So naturally, what happens on a night where they only have to kill one penalty? Goal. Only two shots on that kill, but the second one counted. Richard Park, Nate Thompson, Andy Sutton and Jack Hillen were out there for the entire kill, and by the end of that long shift they had collapsed too low, allowing the Flyers to set up a bang-bang goal Biron didn't have a chance on.

Positive: Trent Hunter. The only guy better than Bailey at setting up Hunter may be Tavares. That was a beautifully threaded pass, and Hunter got just enough of it to slip it under Boucher. Hunter has played 10 games this year and earned points in 9 of them. Nice to have you back, #7.

Negative: Brendan Witt. Yes, his penalty led to the Flyers goal, but the elbow was a corner-battles type of penalty (that Dan Carcillo milked), and the Flyers were going to get their powerplay some time. Hartnell's goal also deflected off of Witt's stick; since Witt was battling with his own man in front of the net, I won't get on him for that -- just trying to do too much. But it was another game that didn't look good for the veteran. Martin Biron bailed him out with a glove save on a 2-on-1 when Witt coughed the puck up at the Flyers blueline.

Positive: Martin Biron. He did what he could. Twenty-seven saves. The game-winner wasn't his fault on Witt's tip (nor, obviously, was the powerplay goal). As a few pointed out in the game thread, he again didn't get much goal support. On a night when he could have gotten a big win over his former team, the offense fell short and Boucher got the glory.

* * *

Afternoon game tomorrow, which is always scary, the day after a food holiday. Who knows what we'll get and how the Penguins will come out.

Meantime, happy Thanksgiving everyone! I'll be thankful for a fun Islanders season and the fact you all keep returning to this site to talk some hockey. If you're in Canada, well, just go ahead and celebrate Thanksgiving again anyway. We Americans tend to do it by overstuffing ourselves, so you can't go wrong there.

Islanders Gameday: A little cat meat would make this a party

Dominik — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 20:06:08 -0000

Now, I'm just getting greedy. With 3 points out of 4 so far on the road trip -- and seventh place in the East (one point behind the filthy Rangers) momentarily in hand -- I want more, against a Panthers squad that can provide it, so long as their doggone super-Czech goalie doesn't get in the way. So come on boys: Make this a trip to remember and bring us back a cat carcass, lightly seared. (Note: An actual Panther would be of poor taste and, in fact, against the law.)

New York Islanders (7-6-6) at Florida Panthers (6-9-1)
7 p.m. EST | [it's a bank! it's an ocean!] Center | MSG+, audio
Focal point of fine feline frolic: Litter Box Cats

Completely Random Fact of the Day: Since the Panthers entered the league, the Islanders have played them in November nine times, outscoring them 30-16 and winning 5, losing 1, and tying 3 (yes Virginia, this league used to have ties).

This quote from Scott Gordon, after John Tavares's two goals last night, struck me as pretty cool and reflective of reality:

"Every day he's getting better," Scott Gordon said. "I think the sky's the limit with him. The fact that he's able to produce so early in the season -- I didn't have high expectations for the kind of production that he's bringing right now. I was hopeful. But as the year progresses, and he gets used to the finer points, the game is only going to get easier for him."

Tavares is exceeding my expectations for his rookie year, with the added bonus that he's leading the Islanders (and all rookies) in scoring. The addition of him, Matt Moulson, and steady goaltenders to last year's squad is what's making the Islanders a current bubble team instead of just some laughingstock meandering through Year 2 of a rebuild. For now, it's great fun; for the future, the sky is the limit. And that's pretty sweet.

I won't always pimp SBN "brother" site content in every single game preview, but Donny "Whale4ever" at Panthers blog Litter Box Cats is one cool cat, and he's got an interesting post that catches you up on the JayBo-less Panthers: In short, their lone reliable line (sounds a little familiar) is Cory Stillman/Steven Reinprecht/Nathan Horton, while last year's secret sensation Michael Frolik has been a disappointment along with Keith Ballard and, heh, Scott "what happened to my Devils defense?!" Clemmensen.

Horton, you may have heard, has reportedly been shopped around despite GM Randy Sexton's denials. (I'm skeptical of Toronto-based trade rumors, but when multiple reporters say at different times they've heard it from multiple GMs, I start to believe he's at least in play.) At 4-7-11, Horton's not lighting it up, but he's always showed his good side against the Islanders. Reinprecht is the hotter scorer so far at 9-5-14, while David Booth is still out after the gruesome Mike Richards hit.

Despite those three scorers' success, the Panthers PP has been abysmal, sitting at 12.5%. The PK is only at 75.8%. If Scotty Bowman, in an ode to our base-10 numeric system, said a good team's special teams should add up to 100%, then the Cats are a good 12% short. (The Isles, incidentally, are currently 79.2 + 20.9, for the win.)

With that powerplay, you'd expect more from a unit backed by Bryan McCabe and rookie standout Dmitry Kulikov. I'll be interested to see how those two work together. Of course, sporting interests aside, I'd just as soon not see the Panthers' powerplay at all.

Fear the Czech

The Panthers allow a lot of shots -- something that apparently caught Clemmensen by surprise. But three of Tomas Vokoun's four victories this year came on shutouts. Last time Vokoun faced the Isles? A 31-save, 2-0 shutout. Hopefully John Tavares brings his lacrosse gear.

The Young and Fearless

When aggressive 2008-09 rookies Scott Gordon and John Anderson faced off last week, the result was a 6-3 goalfest. Gordon's matchups with Peter DeBoer last year were not quite as loose, with an average just over 4 goals per game among them.

Gordon, incidentally, has some interesting lineup decisions for tonight: The team did not exactly miss Josh Bailey and Jeff Tambellini last night, but they don't exactly deserve extended scratches, either. Rob Schremp's merits, meanwhile, are still a source of debate in our humble forum. With no morning skate, we probably won't hear that answer until close to game time.

The easy decision is in goal, with Dwayne Roloson taking the second of this back-to-back. Go Rollie, go Rollie, don't worry about that shutout maestro at the other end.

Programming Note: You can chat up the game here, and I'll post the regularly scheduled game thread at game time, too. Tonight I'm out (hopefully fraternizing with some Blues and Sharks bloggers) and will have to catch this one on DVR, but take it away at your leisure and let me know what you thought of the game.

Let's. Go. Isl-an-ders.

Cardiac Islanders blow 3-0 lead; flu-slapping Okposo wins it in OT

Dominik — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 04:21:45 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

On the OT winner, Kyle Okposo fends off Hurricanes like some pesky little H1N1 virus.

Browse more photos »

The fast, glorious pace with which the Islanders compiled an early 3-0 lead on the tail-spinning Hurricanes was matched by the glacial, agonizing squandering of that lead over the next two periods. Thankfully, on the 7th day god made Kyle Okposo, and it was good. Did I not tell you just Friday a.m. to just accept Okposo's übermensch abilities?

Game Sum. | Event Sum. | Recaps: nhl.com | Isles | Canes Country

Final - 11.13.2009	1	2	3	OT	Total
New York Islanders	3	0	0	1	4
Carolina Hurricanes	0	2	1	0	3

Complete Coverage >

Although it's maddening, I'm not going to panic too much about the blown lead. It's bad, but as fans with all our anxieties we tend to blow it up. Lots of teams go through this growing-pain phase. Given where the Islanders have come from -- arriving now, briefly, in 7th place -- blowing three-goal leads is a nice problem to have.

Meanwhile, lots of lineup implications for Saturday night in Florida. Josh Bailey and Jeff Tambellini got the scratch treatment for this one. But Rob Schremp, playing his "natural" role of center, did nothing to tell me he should dress for a third consecutive game. And Jon Sim, who was my preference for removal if everyone was healthy? My preference remains.

Video highlights and plenty more after the jump.

There Is Only One Okposo: After telling the swine flu who's boss, Okposo returned to the lineup to log the most minutes among Islanders forwards, playing key minutes on both the PP and the PK, netting the game winner and getting the assist on John Tavares's lacrosse hand-eye coordination goal. Just put a Standard Player Contract in front of him now, and let he and his parents fill in the figures and term.

There Are Many Sims: Not to harp on Sim or Schremp, but they were both out there for the tying goal, and they didn't look good. Two caveats, though: Martin Biron absolutely coughed a hairball on that shot. This tendency is beginning to make me worry about how badly other teams will want him. Second caveat is that absolutely every line had its moments of being hemmed in during the Canes' comeback. With Biron doing that, it could have happened to any of them.

Did I Mention There Is Only One Okposo? At the end of regulation, a Canes backchecker laid what my friend calls "the ax handle" on Okposo, leaning all his weight on Okposo's stick and body to keep him from getting the shot off. Okposo laughed it off, got a dangerous shot off anyway, which -- minus Joni Pitkanen mauling Matt Moulson in the crease -- would have led to a truly backbreaking game-winner right there. On the OT winner, Pitkanen couldn't stop his stick, and this came after Okposo brilliantly read the play to intercept a pass and win the game all by himself.

Whither Faceoffs? Nate Thompson (1-6) and Tavares (2-9) each had a rough night at the dot, for a team that won only 42%. Why do I feel like ever since I said "this faceoff trend is legit, not a fluke," they've been putting up nights like that?

Tavares's First Multi-Goal Game: It wasn't that Tavares's goal batting the puck in after it caromed off the grass was amazing -- I mean it was pretty good, for sure. But it was great that he seemed to be the only one on the ice who followed where it was going, just patiently followed it with his eyes, waited for it drop to a legal height, and calmly bunted it in.

Some Rather Critical Defensive Plays: While the walls were falling in, there were still some nice, heroic break-ups by the defense. Jack Hillen went knee-down to block (with his stick) a pass that would have set up Pitkanen all alone in the slot. Bruno Gervais spun to block another sure setup from the opposite side. And Mark Streit, in OT, prevented the winner at the top of the crease by doing what Biron might not have.

Mark Streit, Coming Around: After a slow start by last season's standards, Streit has started to heat up. Tonight, the sweetest sequence was Streit absolutely zinging a wrist shot from the point off the post, then minutes later, simply recalibrating with a slapshot that went in just inside said post. Even if I'd stumbled into the talent to be an NHL player, no way would I have the necessary courage to step in front of that thing.

Special Teams: The powerplay looked outstanding in the first -- they converted twice and had the Canes running around aimlessly. The PK was solid, leaving only stoppable shots for Biron as they killed 3 of 4 chances.

Timing, Timing: The Canes' equalizer finally came with just 2:31 left in the game. Okposo's winner came just a faceoff after Streit's game-saving block, and with just 0:15 left in the OT period, sparing us another godforsaken shootout.

Dirty Night Avoided: The Canes came out hitting with determination (if not direction), and after the Islanders built the 3-0 lead, I was worried about a spiral that would lead to injuries. Sure enough, someone tried to take off Frans Nielsen's head, and immediately afterward Sean Bergenheim threw a dangerous hit from behind on Joe Corvo. Thankfully, the silliness ended there.

* * *

Not Only, But Also: Not only did the Islanders win in OT, the Sound Tigers did too, breaking their Hurricanes-like slump. Mike Fornabaio tweets: Bentivoglio scores his second of the night from the right side 1:32 into OT, and the Sound Tigers win for the first time since Halloween.

Up Next: The daunting Tomas Vokoun and his Florida Panthers, who shut the Bruins out 1-0 Thursday and whose 2009 draft prize, Dimitry Kulikov, has 1 goal and 6 assists.

Thoughts on any of those topics, or others I missed? With time to digest, how disturbed are you by the blown 3-0 lead?

Price / Halak - The Stats - October 2009

Chris Boyle — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:15:02 -0000

Entering the 2009 season the Canadiens franchise had plenty of unanswered questions. The goaltending question is an eternal one in Montreal and with both Price and Halak entering RFA years, 2009 should offer no reprieve. Late 2009 has mimicked early 2009 as inconsistency has plagued Carey Price. Jaroslav Halak although solid on nights, has also not taken the opportunity presented to him by Jacques Martin and cemented the number one job.

With neither goalie grabbing the hammer, the majority of fans have aligned themselves on one side or the other. I refer to them as Team Price and Team Halak. Both teams seemingly rise and fall with each performance. Both teams rally to attack one side should they falter and boast and offer, "I told you so's" when they excel. The 2009 campaign got off to a rousing start for Team Price as he opened the season 2-0 and was outstanding leading the Canadiens to a 2-0 start despite being out shot 81-44 and having 148 shots directed at him in 128 minutes. When Halak faltered in Calgary, the attacks on Halak and the management team for not starting Price were loud. Then Price was bombed in Vancouver and after Price lost 3 straight the controversy was back and Halak was awarded another start. Team Halak struck back. Halak offered up two strong starts in a row and Team Halak was now mounting their high horse. After 14 goals in 229 minutes the lines had once again become blurred. So what has changed?

Not much. Both goaltenders continue to fail to elevate themselves from an approaching platoon. Price and Halak have almost identical save percentages, while Halak holds the edge in goals against average. Halak also has a superior record at 5-2, but it has been accrued against inferior opposition as his opponents winning percentage is .545 (25-20-10) while Price's 2-5 record was accrued against a .650 opponents winning percentage (25-13-3).

Note: records reflect the team record when the goaltender faced them. I did not reference the Islanders as 5-4-5, but as 1-3-3 (their record when Halak faced them on Oct 22 and 1-4-4, their record on Oct 26). It would be disingenuous should Atlanta slow down to reference an under .500 record in April when they were hot and 4-1-0 entering Montreal on Oct 20.)

I used the Roy/Hayward duel as an analogy before the season, but I do not remember really caring who played in 1988, just that I hoped the Canadiens would win. This recent controversy has taken on a life of it's own. I get the feeling that some fans have begun to put their personal vindication of their opinions above the success of the team. It is why I refer to the divide amongst Canadiens fans as different teams. It is utterly exasperating because to this point it is the equivalent to arguing who is crazier, Amy Winehouse or Courtney Love? They are both batshit crazy.

I have gone over EVERY goal in October and 80% of them were unstoppable, they have both let in some suspect goals, but none more so than the other. Neither has significantly outplayed the other. One seems to be the Tortoise, one seems to be the Hare. Price at his peak has been dominant (Maple Leafs, Sabres, Blackhawks), but he has a tendency to nap and crash back to reality (Canucks), while Halak goes out, saves the pucks he should (Thrashers, Islanders), doesn't stop the ones he shouldn't (Flames, Penguins, Rangers) and offers a steady compliment. At the end of the day, their statistics are not that different. It was the same story last season. The goaltending is NOT the problem, it is the easy scapegoat. It is the simple corollary.

My opinion? If this team was a legit contender I could understand the cry for consistency and the Halak argument, but with a team that looks to be middle of the pack I would ride out the inconsistencies of the goaltender with the higher ceiling. The fanbase seems to have settled on goaltending as it's scapegoat and is happy to ignore the lack of secondary scoring, abysmal defensive zone coverages and atrocious special teams. The goaltending is but a symptom of a greater issue; targeting the symptom of anemia by drinking 5 red bulls a day does nothing to cure lymphoma. As each issue is addressed individually, the goaltending will miraculously improve.

For those who want to jump to emotional conclusions, this is probably not the article for you. I don't believe in simplistic judgments based on flawed statistical categories, so I have pieced together as many statistics I could for you to make your own judgments. I have tracked every goal. I have tracked where the shots are coming from, how many are blocked, how many are wide, where they are being scored from on the ice, where they are being scored on the goaltender, even strength, powerplay and save percentage from each distance. My intent is to track these things all season and give you a comprehensive month to month look and offer a comparable for Price and Halak, as well as eventually a comparison to their league leading peers.

I avoided statistical manipulation, there is no "remove the seven goals Price gave up against the Canucks and his SV% is.....". If you chose to ignore the winning percentage of the teams faced to make your argument, so be it. If you want to ignore the video evidence of each individual goal, be my guest. I have provided as much information possible in one place and hopefully through this research and presentation, Eyes on the Prize will be able to offer you a more rounded look for you to form your opinions.

SHOTS AGAINST

Price and Halak's statistical achilles heel is that they play behind a porous Montreal defense. A defense in transition and minus its best player, struggled in October to limit shot attempts. Beginning with the season opener when the Leafs directed 92 shots at the Montreal goal (46 shots, 21 missed shots and 25 blocked shots) Price and Halak have been faced with a consistent barrage. Price has been facing almost a shot attempt per minute on the ice (412 shot attempts in 436 minutes). Compare that to Tim Thomas who has faced 444 shots attempts in 542 minutes or Martin Brodeur who has faced 502 in 672 minutes.

The basic assumption behind these charts is the closer the shot to the net, the more likelihood of it resulting in a goal. The short charts below would reinforce this assumption as the majority of goals given up by Halak and Price increase the closer they move towards the goal and their save percentage also declines with each one.

Looking at his charts, Price has been almost flawless from 50+ ft and has really struggled from 20 ft and in. He only surrendered 3 goals in October outside of the slot and almost half (12 of the 25 goals) were scored within 10 ft of the net. Contrast that to Tim Thomas who only faced 8 shot attempts in all of October from within 10 ft. and Martin Brodeur who faced only 12 shots AT THE GOAL in 236 more minutes (almost 4 full games).

Depending on your perspective, his struggles could also be blamed on terrible special teams as 12 of the 25 goals he allowed in October occurred on the penalty kill (some may blame the penalty kill struggles on Price, I believe the video evidence below proves otherwise) resulting in a massive drag on his save percentage. The results between his even strength save percentage and penalty save percentage is a staggering .268. From .935 five on five to .667 shorthanded.

Halak has been very dominant between 20-40 ft. allowing only one goal all season, but he has also been victimized by the Canadiens soft defense down low as his SV% below 20 ft. is only marginally better than Price's .692. Where Halak has outdistanced Price is his consistency. His penalty kill SV% and regular strength percentage have not suffered from wild swings like Price. Although his 5 on 5 is not in the .930s, he has maintained an .850+ special teams percentage, a huge improvement on Price's .667. Halak has been a much more consistent option for the Canadiens through October 2009-10.

If the Canadiens can limit the shot opportunities below 20 ft. and improve their penalty kill, you will witness a spike in Price and Halak's numbers. Hockey is a team game and goaltending statistics are a reflection of team play. Can a superstar goaltender overcome defensive shortcomings? Yes, but not to the extent where he will lead the league statistically. Can an average goaltender look like a superstar when insulated in a strong defensive system? History has shown that answer to be yes. Rick Wamsley in 1982, Bob Froese in 1986, Byron Dafoe in 1999 and Roman Cechmanek in 2001 all had huge statistical years that were never duplicated on other teams. When you combine a superstar goaltender with a defensive coach you get Patrick Roy in 1989.

Unfortunately the Canadiens possess neither a superstar goaltender, nor an elite defensive coach. Carey Price has the potential to be a superstar, but at 22 is still midway through a steep learning curve. Halak at 24 has proven over the last 12 months that he is an NHL caliber goaltender, but has not shown that he can make the leap to the next level yet (and for those with short memories, Halak was a major question mark through October 2008).

GOALS AGAINST

The Canadiens goaltenders allowed forty-six goals in October and while watching the games I rarely found fault with either goaltender. I could easily have just referenced my memory to make my points, but I decided I would go through each goal individually and try to assess blame. I tried to assess the goaltenders positioning. Were they playing too deep in the net? Were they over committing to the shooters? Were they over pursuing the play and creating opportunities while scrambling back in to the play? How was their gap control, puck tracking, anticipation and rebound control? Were they exposed because of defensive zone turnovers? Deflections? Poor defensive zone coverages? etc etc.

Through 46 goals I found 1 bad goal and 8 that were suspect. I considered a goal suspect if there was a screen involved but the goaltender hadn't battled through the screen, if a shot from in close was stoppable if the goaltender was at his sharpest (ie. Raymond off the wing in Vancouver. If Price was sharp, he has the ability to make the save. So even though it was a partial breakaway, more often than not I expect Price to make that save from that angle, but it can not be categorized as a bad goal) or if the goaltender made a small technical error.

I also tracked where the goals beat the goaltender. I illustrated it below with the five main zones + the zone across the bottom which represents goals scored into an empty net (cross crease feed or tap-in). It was interesting that all the heat Price takes for his glove hand that Halak was more vulnerable allowing over 30% of his goals high glove-side.

Video evidence below (Goals deemed bad or suspect are in bold.)

1. Gill giveaway behind the net. Ponikoravsky one-time from the slot beats Price low stick side. No chance. 25 ft
2. 5 on 3 PP. Tomas Kaberle slap shot tipped in by Stajan at the side of the net. No chance. 9 ft
3. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble in front of the net. Matt Stajan taps it into an empty net. No chance. 5 ft
4. Point shot redirected. Tim Connolly pounces on loose puck and beats Price low stick side. 25 ft.
5. Ryan Kesler breakaway from the blueline. Great move beats Price along the ice glove side. 2 ft.
6. Mason Raymond in alone off the boards slides it through Price's 5-hole. Stoppable. 5 ft.
7. 5 on 4 PP. Tic Tac Toe to Steve Bernier who had an open net. No chance. 9 ft.
8. 5 on 4 PP. Price makes the initial save. Sedin all alone shovles it into an empty net. 10 ft.
9. 2 on 0 breakaway. Price cheats pass and Henrik Sedin makes him pay beating him high glove side. 8 ft.
10. 5 on 4 PP. Price stops initial point shot, Samuelsson puts the rebound through the 5-hole. 9 ft.
11. Scramble in front of the net. Price commits to one shot and cannot recover. No help from the D. 8 ft.
12. Mike Comrie wrist shot beats Price high glove side. Looked stoppable. 34 ft.
13. 5 on 4 PP. Point shot tipped in low stick side. No chance. 21 ft.
14. Defensive zone turnover leads to O'Sullivan alone in the slot. Beats Price low stick side. 28 ft.
15. Hejduk shot deflected in off Gorges. Price may have stopped it if his stick was in position. 30 ft.
16. Cumiskey throws the puck towards the front of the net. Deflects in off Belle's skate. No chance. 10 ft.
17. Ryan O'Reilly out of the corner untouched, Price makes the save, but cannot stop the rebound. 11 ft.
18. Chris Neil in the slot all alone. High glove side. No chance. 26 ft.
19. Daniel Alfreddson one timer on a 5 on 3 powerplay. Low glove side. 31 ft.
20. Alex Kovalev all alone in the slot. Snapshot blocker side. 30 ft
21. 5 on 4 PP. Alex Goligoski shot from the point on the PP. No screen beats Price high glove side. 55 ft.
22. 5 on 4 PP. Chris Kunitz clear cut breakaway from center beats Price 5-hole. 15 ft.
23. Kris Versteeg behind the goal shot deflects off Bergeron in between Price's pads beating him 5-hole. 8ft.
24. Cam Barker one-timer from the faceoff dot. Price is deep, shot beats him high glove side. 31 ft.
25. Patrick Sharp one-timer from the slot beats Price low glove side opposite to his momentum. 37ft

1. Eric Nystrom in the slot unchecked. Snapshot beats Halak high glove side. 19 ft.
2. Slap shot from the point. Tipped in front by Nystrom beats Halak low stick side. 13 ft
3. Slap shot from the point off the post. Jarome Iginla bangs in rebound beating Halak high glove side. 19 ft.
4. Kronwall slapshot from the blueline through a screen beats Halak high stick side. 60 ft.
5. Colby Armstrong from the faceoff dot beats Halak low glove side. 25 ft.
6. Halak gives the puck away behind the net to Josh Bailey allowing for an easy tap-in. 5 ft.
7. Halak stops initial shot, Ansimov left alone and beats Halak high glove side. 6 ft.
8. Ales Kotalik left alone in the slot. Beats Halak high glove side. 14 ft.
9. Gilroy slapshot from the point. Halak may have been screened as he is beaten low stick side. 61 ft.
10. Marian Gaborik breakaway from the blueline beats Halak 5 hole. 5 ft.
11. 5 on 4 PPG. Tambellini drives hard to the net. Halak is not set and exposes his 5 hole. 5 ft.
12. 5 on 4 PPG. Spacek giveaway leads to a cross crease feed and an easy redirection for Jeff Tambellini.
13. Turnover. Guerin feeds Crosby all alone at the side of the net. One-timer beats Halak low-stick side. 17 ft.
14. Halak stops initial shot, rebound to Sidney Crosby who beats a sprawled Halak top shelf glove side. 19 ft.
15. Halak stops point shot, scramble in front and Rupp puts home the rebound beating him low stick side. 5 ft.
16. Crosby alone in front, spin-o-rama. Halak makes initial save hits Crosby's skate and trickles in 5-hole. 5 ft.
17. 5 on 4 PP. Point shot rebound to Ponikoravsky in the slot who wraps it home low stick side by Halak. 15 ft.
18. 5 on 4 PP. Lee Stempniak slap shot from the point beats a screened Halak high glove side. 54 ft.
19. Cross crease feed to Ponikoravsky, beats Halak from a bad angle with a perfect shot high stick side. 19 ft.
20. 6 on 5. Kaberle takes a point shot that deflects off Hamrlik and Spacek to beat Halak low stick side. 63 ft

The October verdict: Patience is required. Patience for a Canadiens team integrating 10-12 new players. Patience for a team that is missing its only legitimate All-Star. Patience for a coach who is still installing a new system and approach and finally patience for the two kids between the pipes.

Chris Boyle is a frequent contributor to Eyes On The Prize and goes by the handle Wamsley.
He is a lifelong Habs fan and the editor of fantasysensehockey.net.