SB Nation - Bill Guerin

Game Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres

Rafal Ladysz — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:31:27 -0000

1 day ago: Buffalo Sabres defenseman Andrej Sekera, of Slovakia, left, congratulates Sabres left winger Thomas Vanek, of Austria, center, after his goal as Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Jason Blake skates past during the third period of the NHL hockey game in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday, Dec. 18, 2009. Buffalo won 5-2. (AP Photo/Don Heupel)

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Winning isn't achieved by the deserving side sometimes and the Buffalo Sabres found momentum at the hands of both goaltenders Friday. Ryan Miller made the ~~big~~ routine saves and Vesa Toskala fumbled a Toni Lydman shot that would have went wide of the net leading to a second period onslaught. Toronto was intense, quick and the better squad but succumbed to Buffalo much like they in turn do to the Ottawa Senators. With the Senators and Bruins both losing, the Sabres have extra breathing space in the Northeast Division.

Food poisoning or not, the Sabres need to have a sophisticated plan for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Marc-Andre Fleury isn't going to gift wrap a goal and he can steal a result too. And where Niklas Hagman and Jamal Mayers missed prime scoring chances, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin won't. These two teams split the season series in 2009 with both winning once on the road.

Ten thoughts on the game below.

First and foremost, Paul Gaustad made his much appreciated return to the line-up yesterday racking up 19:36 in ice time, a plus-one rating and went 12-for-15 in the face-off circle. It was really evident how much he was missed in the last department during his absence. Gaustad's presence is assuring because you always know what you'll get from him and that's a lot if I may say so.
Crosby is having some year with 22 goals and 20 assists in 34 games. On pace for 52 goals, he's added another dimension to his game by firing the puck 128 times on target or 13 less than Alexander Ovechkin albeit he competed in seven more matches. Regardless, Crosby is staggeringly threatening with this new approach.
Miller was brilliant in fending off Toronto so Patrick Lalime will start for Buffalo. In his last game, he stopped 39 Chicago Blackhawk shots for his first victory of the season and has to be looking forward to a second large task in the span of eight days.
Sergei Gonchar has 19 points in 23 games but the Penguins have another exciting offensive defenseman. Alex Goligoski has an impressive 17 points in 25 games along with a plus-12 rating bringing excellent offensive instincts and knowledge. When Gonchar retires, look for this kid to quarterback the Pittsburgh powerplay for years. Sorry Kris Letang.
Buffalo's closest forward to consistent production has been Derek Roy who has ten points in the last 11 games. He had a goal against the Maple Leafs as did Thomas Vanek and the Sabres could use their top levels if they're to one-up the Penguins.
Pittsburgh welcomed Chris Kunitz back last weekend after a one-month layoff and he has two points in three games since. Playing with Crosby and Bill Guerin, the winger is a gritty individual who can hit hard and provide some offense.
Suffering a concussion from a dirty Jarkko Ruutu check, Patrick Kaleta is out again. Nathan Gerbe remains questionable with groin issues. Pittsburgh has a clean bill of health throughout the roster.
Jordan Staal has 14 points in 16 games, Malkin has 17 in 14 and Guerin has 12 in 16. Pittsburgh thrives on the powerplay usually and the Sabres must keep their feet moving to avoid any lazy infractions.
The line of Gaustad, Adam Mair and Matt Ellis was flying yesterday with their fore-checking, cycling and work along the boards. Ellis scored his second marker of the year and for a guy that works as hard as he does, it was well earned.
Pittsburgh and Buffalo are close in a few categories like points, wins, special teams, shots on goal per game and face-off percentage. A back and forth affair is expected between two quick squads that can counter-attack in a heartbeat.

Buffalo hasn't shown worry to facing the more gifted NHL clubs because after all, they are in that position themselves currently. Lalime will look to prove that he can take the reigns in Miller's days off and that would make the season more comfortable for all. Easier said than done when Pittsburgh has no injuries at all.

Friday links: Team USA could look very Penguin

Hooks Orpik — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:24:39 -0000

Bill Guerin is one tough sumbitch. [Tribune Review]

The new power-play has a new result: actually putting the puck in the net. [Empty Netters]

Projected roster alert: Brooks Orpik, Alex Goligoski AND Bill Guerin all make the cut for Team USA here [NHL.com]

Shooting down the latest rumor that doesn't make sense: why the Pens won't be trading Sergei Gonchar to Phoenix. Really rumor mongers, Phoenix taking on the salary? And the Pens trading such a key guy? At least make the rumors make a little sense. [Faceoff Factor]

Deadspin picks up on the almost certainly false rumors swirling around the Flyers. [Deadspin]

Flyers ~~punching bag~~ tough guy Riley Cote weighed in on facebook (before removing it): "i feel the need to address a terrible rumor about 2 of my teamates [sic] hartnell and carter. 100% not true. do not believe what you hear. nothing but pollution. i got both there [sic] backs. now let’s put a beating on the pens!!" [Josh Q Public]

The Penguins have the highest scoring defense in the NHL. And they also have the most diverse scoring from the blueline too. [The Peerless Prognosticator]

A fresh batch of jersey fouls for thee. [Puck Daddy]

Saturday's opponent Ryan Miller is in the groove right now. [The Hockey News]

Head trauma and the effect on pro athletes is thankfully a lot of attention these days, but the more we learn, the scarier things seem. [From the Rink]

It's still Always Sidney in Philadelphia: Pens win 3-2 in shootout

Hooks Orpik — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 04:02:04 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

Boucher was better in this game than last, but he couldn't stop Sidney Crosby from scoring in regulation or the shootout.

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Penguins vs Flyers coverage - Broad Street Hockey

Two night after getting blown out of the water, it was definitely a bounce back night for the Philadelphia Flyers. They went back home and came out with a much better performance. But the Pittsburgh Penguins were there at every corner and matched the intensity and goals all the way through the night.

For all the talk about the Pens power-play, they score 2 goals and really are starting to look better. Moving Evgeni Malkin back to the point has increased puck movement and Chris Kunitz (2 primary assists) and Bill Guerin (1 goal) are playing a simple "go-to-the-net" type game. It's been effective.
Marc-Andre Fleury was stellar with a 31 save on 33 shot effort, including several great saves. The robbery on Daniel Briere is one that'll make highlight films for the rest of the year. At the other end Brian Boucher was great too; a worthy bounce-back performance from his last game.
Two pretty careless stick fouls on Malkin in a span of just over 4 minutes. I'm not gonna job him, he was getting his chances and played well on the power-play, but he's got to buckle down a little with HHT (holding, hooking, tripping).
The three headed monster combined for 16 shots on goal and almost 69 minutes of combined ice-time. That they roll all three out one after another after another gives the opposition no let up.
After coincidental penalties in OT, they played things 3-on-3 for a two minutes which kind of looked like a middle school dance. Neither side really looked comfortable with that much open ice to work with, in fact the Pens kind of circled in their own zone a lot. Easy to tell neither team gets much practice at it.
How deep are the Penguins? Consider this: in the current four game winning streak, they haven't repeated a player in "3 Stars of the night". They go Pascal Dupuis (3rd star 12/10), Sergei Gonchar (1st star); Malkin (3rd star 12/12), Ruslan Fedotenko (1st star); Brooks Orpik (3rd star 12/15), Jordan Staal (2nd star), Crosby (1st star); Fleury (2nd star 12/17), Letang (1st star).

A shame the game was decided with the gimmicky shootout, but Penguin fans almost know what happens when it gets that far: Pittsburgh is now 5-0 in the shootout. Fleury improves to 9 of 10 in stops (backup Brent Johnson is perfect 6 for 6), Crosby's a perfect 5 for 5 in scoring and Letang's a pretty fair 2 for 5. Those three specialists give Pittsburgh a huge leg up if it gets to the skills competition.

Two wins in two games in which they outscored Philly 9-3 on the aggregate is a good showing. The Pens move on to three games in six days before the brief Christmas break; starting Saturday in Buffalo before going home to meet New Jersey and Ottawa. All three of those opponents are in the top 8 of the Eastern Conference's standings, and with goalies like Ryan Miller and Martin Brodeur on the horizion, the road doesn't get any easier.

The best swag in the Penguins charity gift-baskets

Hooks Orpik — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:38:14 -0000

There's candy in Brooks Orpik's gift basket, but rest assured it is not free.

(image at the courtesy of NHL Auctions)

The holiday season is a time of giving and gifts. The Penguins wives and girlfriends are spear-heading gift baskets for the fourth year in a row. The idea is to fill them with momentos and things the player likes and auction them off to fans, with the proceeds going to charity.

Let's dive into these bad boys and see who's got the best stuff.

This is only what's visible in the pictures, there could be a lot more. Current bid is bolded. Let's look at the top 5:

#5 Chris Bourque -- The former Penguin put a nice basket together, and for the current bid it offers a lot of bang for the buck. There's no fewer than seven autographed items, including a cool old-style logo Penguins shirt/sweatshirt, four Penguin hats and a nice Penguin snowman/woman decoration. $240

#4 Evgeni Malkin -- No less than five autographed items (the mini-stick, a hat, a shirt/jersey, an ornament and a puck) in Geno's basket. Currently the highest price basket. $1,191.87

#3 Bill Guerin-- Four bobbleheads, a signed puck, Stanley Cup champion t-shirt, and I swear it looks like there's a beer in the back left corner of the basket. $720

#2 Max Talbot -- Looks really stocked with more items than the average bag. A #1 fan foam finger, a Stanley Cup bobblehead, a couple hats and a signed shirt/jersey are a few of the visible items in Talbot's basket. Also it comes in a bucket that a lot of places put beer in, rather than the typical basket. $573

#1 Mike Rupp -- A signed replica jersey AND a signed shirt/jersey gives Noted's basket a leg up on the rest. Throw in a remote-control truck, a cool hat (signed of course) and some Starbucks. $524.50

Most creative:

A lot of these are standard with pretty much the same stuff -- signed shirts, Penguin hats, etc. Well, there's one giftbasket that's unique with no sign of any hockey/Penguin merchandise or memorabilia.

Kris Letang -- What appears to be no less than 20 chocolate bars, the board game Operation, and maybe a Metallica CD? No visible Penguin items to be found. $640

Food items are rare this year, but if you're wondering Brooks Orpik does have candy in his (see above). So that's the list of the Pens gift baskets, anything that catches your eye? And if any readers bid/win on a basket, please let us know how it turns out!

Some Perspective on Penner's Start

Derek Zona — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:20:43 -0000

Left winger Petr Klima of the Edmonton Oilers (right) and defenseman Steve Duchesne of the Los Angeles Kings tangle up during a game at the Great Western Forum in Inglewood, California. Klima immediately apologized. via cdn.picapp.com

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Dustin Penner's blistering start has slowed a bit, but Big Pun continues to carry the team on a nightly basis. He's on pace for 40 goals, something that hasn't been accomplished in Edmonton since Petr Klima in 1990 He's on pace for 88 points, the most for any Oiler since Doug Weight's 90 in 2000. Let's check the twenty-one years A.G.

Year	Player	Goals	Player	Assists	Player	Points	Player	+/-
1988	Carson	49	Messier	61	Kurri	102	Muni	43
1989	Messier	45	Messier	84	Messier	129	Gregg	24
1990	Klima	40	Messier	52	Tikkanen	69	Klima	24
1991	Damphousse	38	Damphousse	51	Damphousse	89	Maciver	20
1992	Klima	32	Nicholls	32	Klima	48	Gelinas	3
1993	Arnott	33	Weight	50	Weight	74	Arnott	1
1994	Oliver	16	Weight	33	Weight	40	Kennedy	2
1995	Ciger	31	Weight	79	Weight	104	Satan	0
1996	Smyth	39	Weight	61	Weight	82	Marchment	13
1997	Weight	26	Weight	44	Weight	70	Tie	9
1998	Guerin	30	Guerin	34	Guerin	64	Poti	10
1999	Smyth	28	Weight	51	Weight	72	Smith	16
2000	Smyth	31	Weight	65	Weight	90	Tie	15
2001	Comrie	33	Niinimaa	39	Tie	60	Comrie	16
2002	Smyth	27	Marchant	40	Smyth	61	Reasoner	19
2003	Smyth	23	Smyth	36	Smyth	59	Ulanov	18
2004
2005	Smyth	36	Hemsky	58	Hemsky	77	Staios	10
2006	Smyth	31	Hemsky	40	Tie	53	Thoresen	-1
2007	Penner	23	Hemsky	51	Hemsky	71	Nilsson	8
2008	Tie	23	Hemsky	43	Hemsky	66	Grebeshkov	12
2009	Penner	44	Penner	44	Penner	88	Penner	32

Penner's projected goal total is good for 3rd over this time period. His pace would tie him for 13th in assists and 6th in points. He would join Mark Messier, Vincent Damphousse, Doug Weight and Ryan Smyth as Oilers who have led the team in Goals, Assists and Points.

He's also on pace to accomplish a feat that only one other player in the history of the Oilers has been able to pull off -- lead the team in Goals, Assists, Points, and +/-.

Fight, fight, fight; score, score, score, score, score, score. Pens embarrass Flyers 6-1

Hooks Orpik — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:29 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Brian Boucher got used to this sight tonight.

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Flyers vs Penguins coverage - Broad Street Hockey

The Philadelphia Flyers, if nothing else, are known as a physical rough-and-tumble bunch. The Pittsburgh Penguins matched that willingness with three fights early (and a busy day tomorrow for Dunman!). Hockey is more about just the fisticuffs and the Pens are able to do that too, scoring six of the seven goals from Sidney Crosby, Bill Guerin, two by Jordan Staal, Ruslan Fedotenko and Evgeni Malkin.

One team is in a groove, getting good goaltending and playing strong defense....And the other is not right now. The results were as clear as the scoreboard; a 6-1 virtual whitewashing by Pittsburgh.

Riley Cote was the only Flyer that escaped a minus in the plus/minus column, and he got a grand total of two shifts and 0:31 of ice-time. Conversely, only Tyler Kennedy and Craig Adams were the only Pens that weren't pluses. Just one of those nights.
Shots ended up being 35-27, hardly the edge to demonstrate the zone time and puck control that Pittsburgh had all night long. Crosby, Malkin and Kris Letang led the way five shots on goal a piece.
Strong effort by Marc-Andre Fleury getting in front of 26 of 27 shots. The Flyers did throw them on him, and he was there. Fleury's 8-1-1 and has given up 2 or fewer goals in eight of his last ten games and is sporting a .927 save percentage over that stretch.
About the only place the Pens didn't dominate was in the faceoff circle; Philly won 60% of the draws, no Penguin player who took more than one draw had over a 50% rate.
The blowout allowed the Pens to mix things up. No forward played more than 18:50, much under the season averages of guys like Crosby and Malkin. Defensively, only Sergei Gonchar played more than 20:00 minutes -- and even his 23:39 was under yearly average. Philly, playing catchup, had seven of their players go over the 20:00 minute mark. Might this show up in the second game of the home-and-home?
Brooks Orpik had 2 assists, Eric Godard had a nice flip that got him an assist, Staal wristed a nice shorty and a tap-in rebound, Fedotenko went 1 and 1, as did Malkin....You could go almost all the way down the line. Almost everyone who dressed made nice plays and a lot of them ended up in the net. Just one of those nights.

One of those nights indeed. Pittsburgh re-takes their lead for most wins league wide and the Flyers must be as frustrated as ever. Things change, and change quickly in the NHL. Philadelphia will get a shot in the arm with their crowd --and stewing over their performance -- on Thursday. If the Pens aren't out the gates running, make no mistake, Philly (with a 9-7-2 home record) will make them pay. But if the boys in black-and-gold have another showing like tonight, it'll likely be the same result.

Evgeni Malkin is the boss of the league: Pens beat Panthers 3-2 in OT

Hooks Orpik — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 03:51:04 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Fedotenko is a streaky scorer, seeing him net one might be a sign of things to come in the immediate future.

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Panthers vs Penguins coverage - Panthers vs Penguins boxscore - SB Nation blog Litter Box Cats

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers have already matched up three times this season and every game has ended the same: in a 3-2 win for the Penguins, all going to OT (one ended in a shootout). The Panthers must feel they're this close to getting over the hump and beating good teams around the league like the defending champs, but "this close" has only resulted in two out of a possible six points, which isn't going to cut it.

Steven Reinprecht started the scoring in the first for Florida off on a nifty hand-eye coordination goal to bat a puck baseball style out of the air and in the net. Under three minutes later, Pascal Dupuis took advantage of 18 year old defenseman Dmitri Kulikov making a play an 18 year old sometime makes, when he tripped. Dupuis made a nifty shoulder shake to his backhand which froze Tomas Vokoun and quickly moved back to his fore-hand and unleashed a perfect top shelf wrister.

Noted goal scorer Mike Rupp made a great play in the second period for the second Penguins' goal. Rupp softly dumped the puck in, and as both defensemen (Dennis Seidenberg and Bryan McCabe) went into the corner to retrive it. Noted laid a hit that disrupted both defenseman and Evgeni Malkin ended up with the puck. Malkin walked out of the corner, and found Ruslan Fedotenko all alone in front for an easy,slam dunk goal.

Florida would tie the game early in the third when McCabe jumped out of the penalty box and got a break. Brent Johnson made a stop but the puck eluded him, Johnny sprawled out for it but Stephen Weiss was able to curl and drag just in time and finish on the abanon net to tie the game.

No score until the overtime session, the Pens earned a powerplay when Jordan Staal bulled to the net and was tackled by Jordan Leopold. The ensuing faceoff was won cleanly by Sidney Crosby to Malkin, who passed to Sergei Gonchar. Gonchar and Malkin closed in, Bill Guerin got in a screening position and the puck was passed back to Malkin who quickly unleashed a heavy slapshot to the top corner. Game.

FSN unleashed a great stat, the Penguins are now 22-0-0 when they score 3+ goals in a game. And with the talent they have, it's not terribly difficult to get 3 goals a night.
The Pens are also 5-1 when they where their alternate third jerseys, which some fans consider cursed or bad luck. A couple more wins and that sentiment will fade.
It was a two-headed monster night. The big boys combined for 13 shots on goal (7 by Crosby, 6 by Malkin), 22:09 of ice-time for Geno, 21:54 for Sid, and Crosby dominated in the faceoff circle winning 18 of his 24 draws.
Chris Kunitz eased back into the lineup with 14:14 played and 2 shots on goal (5 total attempts). In fact, tonight was the first game that the Penguins got to use every one of their regulars (no one injured).
With Eric Godard a healthy scratch, Mike Rupp was the low-man with just 9 shifts and 6:09 of icetime, even though he made a great play to setup a goal. In close games with a lot of PP and PK time, the Noted one probable isn't going to get a lot of ice, but it was good to see him do well with what he got.
Pittsburgh officially out-hit Florida 34-13. Home town scoring advantage? The statisticans did charge the Pens with 12 giveaways (double the number of Florida's 6), so they can't be considered totally one-sided.
The much maligned PP went 0 for 5 before Malkin drove home the G-Dub. 1 for 6 isn't great, but in a one goal game, we'll take it.

A hard fought game, but the cream rose to the top with the OT winner. The Pens keep pace with New Jersey at the top of the Atlantic Division, and now we get to look forward to the full lineup getting a home and home series against the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday and Thursday. The Flyers have a new coach and are a desperate team that's currently outside of the playoff bubble. You just know it's going to be an intense, playoff-like atmosphere in December.

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Snapping the trap: Pens outwork Habs and win 3-2

Hooks Orpik — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:07:55 -0000

More photos » by Graham Hughes - AP

9 days ago: Pittsburgh Penguins' Sergei Gonchar, center, celebrates after scoring against the Montreal Canadiens with teammates Sidney Crosby, right, and Pascal Dupuis during the first period of an NHL hockey game in Montreal, Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Graham Hughes)

Browse more photos »

Penguins vs Canadiens coverage - Habs Eyes On The Prize

The Montreal Canadiens seemed content to let the Penguins fire shots off from all angles. The Pens put a barrage of 41 shots on Carey Price, whereas the Habs only got 21 pieces of rubber on Marc-Andre Fleury. Puck possession was another story. Pittsburgh cycled circles in the Montreal zone, a relentless attack that generated a lot of pressure. This can be partially illustrated in the total shots launched. The Penguins attempted 80 shots on goal (39 either got blocked or missed the target), compared to Montreal's total of just 46. When you have the puck in the zone, you work it and you try to shoot. That the Pens did this at almost a 2-1 rate shows the dominance.

Scoring was opened in the first period when, off of a cycling effort (told ya it was key), Bill Guerin flipped a beautiful cross-ice pass to Sergei Gonchar, who was pinching down as Penguin defensemen did all night long. Gonchar drilled it by a helpless Price.

Matt D'Agostini would get the equalizer in the second when he snapped a shot by Fleury. Less than three minutes later, the Habs would take an unlikely 2-1 lead when Roman Hamrlik unleashed a monster shot from afar on a screened Fleury. The goal was scored on a power-play, which is something that the Penguins apparently don't remember that you're allowed to score on those.

Before the period was over the Pens would tie it up, Matt Cooke deflected a Gonchar shot in to tie things up. Then, we see that when you go to the well enough, good things happen. Brooks Orpik threw an awesome stretch pass all the way up the ice for Pascal Dupuis. Dupuis ripped one of his patented slappers, and while Price got 38 of 41, he couldn't get that one.

Montreal would get another goal, if not for another quick whistle that negated a goal. Again, similiar to a situation last week against Colorado, an out of position referee thought Fleury had the puck and blew the whistle. This time it wasn't such a quick whistle, as the puck was tied up (though certaintly not covered) for a little bit which gave the ref reason to blow it dead.

Sergei Gonchar had himself a night: one goal, one assist, six shots hurled at net on a team high of 25:26 of ice-time. A well deserved first star of the night.
Power-play woes continue to dog the Pens. 0 for 5 tonight in another fruitless effort. Sometimes getting things set up is the problem, sometimes not. Sometimes inactivity seems to hurt, sometimes not. Often though, they're just not executing, as perplexing as it seems for a unit that boasts as much talent as they have.
Brooks Orpik had a great night too; not enough can be said about the stretch pass he made to Dupuis on the game winner. He also ended up being a +3 on the night, which is a pretty good sign in a 3-2 game.
The Habs tried to clog up the neutral zone the best they could, often times with only one half-hearted forechecker and four guys holding their real estate. It didn't seem to bother the Penguins, who had no problems dumping, chasing and doing some dirty work down low. It shows in the numbers when you see Tyler Kennedy (5 shots, 1 hit), Ruslan Fedotenko (4 shots, 1 hit), Matt Cooke (1 goal, 2 shots, 3 hits), Craig Adams (2 shots, 4 hits). The pluggers plugged away.
Carey Price was almost the story of the game. He didn't have many idle moments when the Pens weren't pressing him. But his shaky glove hand betrayed him at the end.

So that's the game and another win on the road. The Habs and their fans were smarting over the quick whistle negating a goal, but the fact of the matter is they got out-worked and out-chanced all night and didn't really deserve to win the game.

Up next may be the ultimate trap game. Consider: The Pens embark on a home-and-home against their rivals the Flyers next week, but first they'll be playing in their blue jerseys against a feisty opponent that relishes playing against them in the Florida Panthers. Hopefully they bring the same effort they showed tonight in Montreal, they'll need it.

Tales of the Tape: Bill Guerin vs. Tim Gleason

JDunman — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 19:00:35 -0000

Yeah, it sucks to lose a game, and it sucks worse when the one fight isn't a shining victory to help ease the pain a bit. But this one is fast and furious, so hopefully it will be somewhat entertaining.

(kudos to hockeyfights.com)

What is there really to say on this one? Bill Guerin drops his gloves as soon as the puck is dropped and goes after Tim Gleason. After a shove, Gleason answers him and starts pounding away on Guerin's helmet. Guerin gets a bit of leverage and lifts Gleason up, pounding away when he hits the ice. Though the takedown was pretty, I have to give Gleason the win here for the onslaught of hits. It's a hollow victory though, as his hand simply cannot be feeling good after hitting helmet so many times. Ouch - just check out his knuckles when the camera zooms in.

I've heard a bit of whisperings that Guerin should have gotten an instigator call for this. What do you think?

Up next will be the Habs, and old Penguins goon Big Georges Laraque is back from his suspension that kept him out last game. Will we have a repeat of the craptastic 'fight' he and Eric Godard had last season?

Poll

SB Nation - Bill Guerin

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Some Perspective on Penner's Start

Fight, fight, fight; score, score, score, score, score, score. Pens embarrass Flyers 6-1

Evgeni Malkin is the boss of the league: Pens beat Panthers 3-2 in OT

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Snapping the trap: Pens outwork Habs and win 3-2

Tales of the Tape: Bill Guerin vs. Tim Gleason

Who won the fight?