SB Nation - Vesa Toskala

Game Preview: Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres

Rafal Ladysz — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:31:27 -0000

1 day ago: Buffalo Sabres defenseman Andrej Sekera, of Slovakia, left, congratulates Sabres left winger Thomas Vanek, of Austria, center, after his goal as Toronto Maple Leafs left winger Jason Blake skates past during the third period of the NHL hockey game in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday, Dec. 18, 2009. Buffalo won 5-2. (AP Photo/Don Heupel)

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Winning isn't achieved by the deserving side sometimes and the Buffalo Sabres found momentum at the hands of both goaltenders Friday. Ryan Miller made the ~~big~~ routine saves and Vesa Toskala fumbled a Toni Lydman shot that would have went wide of the net leading to a second period onslaught. Toronto was intense, quick and the better squad but succumbed to Buffalo much like they in turn do to the Ottawa Senators. With the Senators and Bruins both losing, the Sabres have extra breathing space in the Northeast Division.

Food poisoning or not, the Sabres need to have a sophisticated plan for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Marc-Andre Fleury isn't going to gift wrap a goal and he can steal a result too. And where Niklas Hagman and Jamal Mayers missed prime scoring chances, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin won't. These two teams split the season series in 2009 with both winning once on the road.

Ten thoughts on the game below.

First and foremost, Paul Gaustad made his much appreciated return to the line-up yesterday racking up 19:36 in ice time, a plus-one rating and went 12-for-15 in the face-off circle. It was really evident how much he was missed in the last department during his absence. Gaustad's presence is assuring because you always know what you'll get from him and that's a lot if I may say so.
Crosby is having some year with 22 goals and 20 assists in 34 games. On pace for 52 goals, he's added another dimension to his game by firing the puck 128 times on target or 13 less than Alexander Ovechkin albeit he competed in seven more matches. Regardless, Crosby is staggeringly threatening with this new approach.
Miller was brilliant in fending off Toronto so Patrick Lalime will start for Buffalo. In his last game, he stopped 39 Chicago Blackhawk shots for his first victory of the season and has to be looking forward to a second large task in the span of eight days.
Sergei Gonchar has 19 points in 23 games but the Penguins have another exciting offensive defenseman. Alex Goligoski has an impressive 17 points in 25 games along with a plus-12 rating bringing excellent offensive instincts and knowledge. When Gonchar retires, look for this kid to quarterback the Pittsburgh powerplay for years. Sorry Kris Letang.
Buffalo's closest forward to consistent production has been Derek Roy who has ten points in the last 11 games. He had a goal against the Maple Leafs as did Thomas Vanek and the Sabres could use their top levels if they're to one-up the Penguins.
Pittsburgh welcomed Chris Kunitz back last weekend after a one-month layoff and he has two points in three games since. Playing with Crosby and Bill Guerin, the winger is a gritty individual who can hit hard and provide some offense.
Suffering a concussion from a dirty Jarkko Ruutu check, Patrick Kaleta is out again. Nathan Gerbe remains questionable with groin issues. Pittsburgh has a clean bill of health throughout the roster.
Jordan Staal has 14 points in 16 games, Malkin has 17 in 14 and Guerin has 12 in 16. Pittsburgh thrives on the powerplay usually and the Sabres must keep their feet moving to avoid any lazy infractions.
The line of Gaustad, Adam Mair and Matt Ellis was flying yesterday with their fore-checking, cycling and work along the boards. Ellis scored his second marker of the year and for a guy that works as hard as he does, it was well earned.
Pittsburgh and Buffalo are close in a few categories like points, wins, special teams, shots on goal per game and face-off percentage. A back and forth affair is expected between two quick squads that can counter-attack in a heartbeat.

Buffalo hasn't shown worry to facing the more gifted NHL clubs because after all, they are in that position themselves currently. Lalime will look to prove that he can take the reigns in Miller's days off and that would make the season more comfortable for all. Easier said than done when Pittsburgh has no injuries at all.

Sabres 5 Leafs 2: Sabres Lucky to Earn Victory

David Oleksy — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 03:32:03 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

1 day ago: Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller makes a save on the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period of the NHL hockey game in Buffalo, N.Y., Friday, Dec. 18, 2009. (AP Photo/Don Heupel)

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I believe the saying is..."you have to be good to be lucky and lucky to be good". The Buffalo Sabres were lucky to come away with a 5-2 victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday night. The story of the game was goaltending. Ryan Miller was once again outstanding with 40 saves in the victory and Vesa Toskala had an embarrassing night to earn the loss.

The Leafs were dominant in the first period and thoroughly outplayed Buffalo in every aspect of the game. It took the Sabres almost 13 minutes to get their first shot on goal and they were outshot 10-4 by the visiting Leafs. The only goal of the period came just over three minutes into the game as Viktor Stalberg scored the first goal of his NHL career on a shot that appeared to deflect off of Craig Rivet.

The second period was when the wheels came off for Vesa Toskala and the Toronto Male Leafs. Derek Roy tied the game early in the period on a goal that Toskala argued with the referee. I didn't see interference on the play but it's possible MSG left that replay off the broadcast.

It was the go ahead goal was the one that changed the complexion of the game. Toni Lydman flipped the puck that was headed into the corner but Toskala came out to try to catch it, the puck deflected off of his glove and fell into the net. The game turned at that point and the Sabres added two more before the second period ended.

The Sabres played better in the third period but it didn't make up for the poor play during the first two periods. Lindy Ruff talked about the players that were sick lacking energy but enough is enough. At what point do these guys start feeling better? They need to be a lot better against the Penguins or the score will be reversed on Saturday night.

Game Notes

The defensive miscues in the first two periods were evident. The defense pinched at the wrong time, they were often out of position and chasing the puck. They were lucky the score didn't get out of hand before Toskala handed them the game.
Thomas Vanek was one of the players that seemed to lack energy. He did score his 10th goal of the season on a wrap around in the third period.
Ryan Miller was magnificent once again, making 40 saves with most of the good chances coming in the first period.
Tim Kennedy was one guy that stood out in a positive way. Kennedy was fast and very strong with the puck. He made a great play on the Sabres third goal that deflected off the leg of Mike Grier.
There were a total of three penalties in the game and all of them occurred in the first period. The power play continues to struggle going 0-for-2 tonight. The penalty kill was a perfect 1-for-1.

Corsi Numbers

		Game Stats
#	Player	Pos	TOI	+/-	FO%	Hits	GV	TK	BS
4	Steve Montador	D	19:18	0	-	0	0	0	0
5	Toni Lydman	D	17:09	2	-	3	0	0	0
9	Derek Roy	C	17:00	0	9/19	0	4	0	0
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	19:03	1	-	0	0	0	3
13	Tim Kennedy	C	12:48	1	3/6	2	2	0	1
19	Tim Connolly	C	16:47	2	0/1	0	1	0	1
21	Drew Stafford	RW	14:44	-1	-	0	0	0	0
22	Adam Mair	C	10:53	0	-	0	0	0	1
25	Mike Grier	RW	15:44	1	0/3	1	1	2	0
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	15:34	2	-	0	0	0	1
28	Paul Gaustad	C	19:36	1	12/15	0	1	0	1
29	Jason Pominville	RW	13:59	2	2/4	0	0	1	0
37	Matt Ellis	LW	10:44	0	0/1	0	0	0	0
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	15:19	1	1/3	1	0	0	0
44	Andrej Sekera	D	21:02	0	-	0	0	0	3
52	Craig Rivet	D	18:41	2	-	0	0	0	0
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	17:15	0	1/1	1	0	0	0
57	Tyler Myers	D	22:24	1	-	1	1	0	0
TOI = Total Time on Ice				GV = Giveaways
FO% = Faceoff percentage				TK = Takeaways
Hits = Total Hits				BS=Blocked Shots

			Even Strength Individual Stats						Even Strength On-Ice Totals
#	Player	Pos	EV TOI	G	A	Shots	S A/B	S Miss	SOGF	SOGA	SOG Diff	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
4	Steve Montador	D	19:48	0	0	3	0	1	12	12	0	19	21	-2
5	Toni Lydman	D	16:01	1	1	1	0	0	7	16	-9	10	17	-7
9	Derek Roy	C	13:31	1	0	2	0	1	8	12	-4	12	13	-1
10	Henrik Tallinder	D	18:11	0	0	0	0	0	5	13	-8	13	21	-8
13	Tim Kennedy	C	12:48	0	1	0	0	1	3	8	-5	7	17	-10
19	Tim Connolly	C	13:02	0	0	2	1	0	8	11	-3	14	15	-1
21	Drew Stafford	RW	13:30	0	1	3	0	1	8	13	-5	13	17	-4
22	Adam Mair	C	10:53	0	0	1	1	0	5	7	-2	9	10	-1
25	Mike Grier		15:36	1	1	2	1	1	4	12	-8	7	18	-11
26	Thomas Vanek	LW	12:30	1	0	2	0	0	4	8	-4	5	12	-7
28	Paul Gaustad	C	18:04	0	0	1	1	0	6	11	-5	14	18	-4
29	Jason Pominville	RW	10:38	0	0	1	0	1	8	9	-1	11	15	-4
37	Matt Ellis	LW	10:44	1	0	2	0	1	5	8	-3	9	12	-3
41	Clarke MacArthur	LW	14:05	0	0	1	1	0	7	11	-4	13	18	-5
44	Andrej Sekera	D	19:48	0	0	2	2	0	13	12	1	20	23	-3
52	Craig Rivet	D	16:49	0	1	0	1	1	8	16	-8	12	18	-6
55	Jochen Hecht	LW	16:16	0	1	1	0	0	9	13	-4	15	18	-3
57	Tyler Myers	D	18:16	0	1	1	1	1	5	13	-8	12	22	-10
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOGA = Team shots against while on ice
EV TOI = Even Strength time on ice								SOG Diff = Difference shots on ice
S A/B = shots attempted and blocked								Tot SF = Total shots including blocked/missed
S Miss = Shots missed the net								Tot SA = Total Shots Ag. Including blocked/missed
SOGF = Team Shots while on ice								Corsi = Difference in Total Shots

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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Game Preview: Toronto Maple Leafs @ Buffalo Sabres

Rafal Ladysz — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:27:09 -0000

More photos » by Fred Chartrand - AP

3 days ago: Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller (30) looks back as teammate Henrik Tallinder, (10) of Sweden, clears the puck from the net during third-period NHL hockey game action against the Ottawa Senators in Ottawa on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009. The Senators won 2-0. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Fred Chartrand)

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It was uncharacteristically depressing Wednesday as the Buffalo Sabres were almost exhausted by the Ottawa Senators leading to defeat. The announcement of several players competing through food poisoning made the lack of fighting spirit comprehensible. With Toronto up next, the Sabres are setting their sights on a return to the win column against the Maple Leafs.

Having already claimed two wins from the blue and white, Buffalo's luck against this Canadian squad contradicts what they receive with Ottawa. Pension Plan Puppets has interesting statistics at the start of their article to share. Ryan Miller, like he's done flawlessly, was the story in the first two matches as Toronto outshot them 73-59 combined. Mentioning how disappointed he became with the team's work two days ago, the Sabres will be determined to make up for it.

Five thoughts on both combatants below.

Vesa Toskala was too deep in his net often on Wednesday and the Phoenix Coyotes jumped out to a 5-1 lead that Toronto couldn't recover from. The Finnish goaltender is 3-3 lifetime with Buffalo and hasn't won on the road yet this season. A 4.77 goals against average and .848 save percentage explain why that's the case.
Tremendous news on the injury front because Paul Gaustad is all healed up and eager to get back into action. Face-offs, energy, a presence in front of the net, Goose's return makes the group much stronger. Patrick Kaleta could be out with a sore neck, Nathan Gerbe is questionable and Chris Butler will not participate.
Toronto's powerplay is clicking at just above 20 per cent and Gaustad will help Buffalo's that is now 1 for 16 in three games. While the Sabres are seventh in penalty killing, their opponents are at the bottom behind 29 teams.
Four points out of a playoff spot, Phil Kessel, Matt Stajan and Alexei Ponikarovsky have found chemistry as a unit providing the bulk of Toronto's offense in the last week or so. Each member has points in three consecutive contests.
Jason Pominville whose 94 shots lead the team, has seven goals and is witnessing his total drop for the third straight season possibly after posting 34 in 2007. I've lost count of the amount of times he's fanned on a shot, broken his stick or missed the net.
At 7-0-2 when scoring first, the Maple Leafs are a good bet to come out the superior side with that advantage but the problem is they've only been in that position nine times. They're 5-15-5 if they fall behind first and Buffalo is 15-2-2 when striking first. The first goal could be the deciding factor.
Defenseman Tomas Kaberle's 31 points surpass all of Buffalo's forwards in production. Wow.
I did some number crunching like I did for the Ottawa preview. The Sabres are 23-8-1 against Toronto since the lock-out, outscoring them 115-78.
Thomas Vanek has 16 goals and 29 points in 30 tries with Toronto. With one goal in December, he must start finding the net more.
Toronto is one of four Eastern Conference clubs to have hit triple digits in goal-scoring and are part of a seven-team group to have surrendered 100 goals or more.

Rest assured that the Maple Leafs will have strong support in HSBC Arena as they often do. A win for Toronto keeps them in the thick of the postseason scrum. A win for Buffalo extends their Northeast Division conquest. The Maple Leafs have scored massive upset victories already and this would add to that compilation.

Maple Leafs 3 v. Coyotes 6: Not Good Enough To Coast

PPP — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 09:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

This man was picked up for free.

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Chemmy Thought of the Night: The Leafs traded a 1st, 2nd and 4th for Toskala on June 22 2007. On Nov 17 2007 Bryzgalov was claimed off waivers by Phoenix. Since 2007 Toskala's save percentage has never been above .904, Bryzgalov's has never been below .906.

Since the lockout three things have been constants for the Maple Leafs:

The goaltending has ranged from great to atrocious. Unfortunately, if you were looking for a split between the two it's probably been 10% great, 90% atrocious.
Once the Leafs feel satisfied they fall apart. Toskala is one of the worst on this team for being pleased and thinking that excuses him from playing well. Tonight, for 52 minutes, we saw the entire team pull that trick.
When there is any mention of "PLAYOFFS!!1" the Leafs' testicular fortitude disappears. There is a reason that they always go on crazy runs to end the season: there's no pressure.

The net result is that the team plays lackadaisically and completely out of sync. For about 52 minutes tonight that's what we saw out of the Leafs. Terrible goaltending was compounded by the rest of the team's October flashback.

The first five minutes of the game actually weren't half bad and the Leafs left the first only down 1-0 before the wheels came off in the second. Four goals came as a result of the Leafs' sudden decision to stop skating or play anything resembling hockey:

Ron Wilson: That's the frustrating part we couldn't stop the bleeding in the second period and they scored a couple of crappy goals.

To top things off, when the team looked to Vesa Toskala to make a save, more often than not, he failed the team. The first went shortside (ie the 'minor league' side) while another was a result of playing far too deep in the net. Ron Wilson wasn't at all pleased by Toskala's play:

Wilson: Every goalie in this league gets screened and you have to fight to see the puck it's as simple as that. The goalie should never make an excuse that he's screened on a play "I'm screened so I don't have to try anymore." It's not something that I like.

Reporter: (paraphrashing) What I meant was that five guys were often running around chasing the puck

Wilson: That happens. As a goaltender your job is to work hard to try to find the puck, period, if your defence is scrambling - "oh I'll make myself as small as possible" - you have to make yourself you gotta make yourself big and try to come up with the save. And When the goalie's struggling you have to hope that the defence bails you out too.

Of course, the Leafs were hardly helped by the four blind mice working the game. The problem with terrible performances is that every bad call that goes against you has a much greater impact. The first goal came off a Jim Vandermeer dive that drew two minutes on Jason Blake. The third goal, after the Leafs had drawn to within one, was a result of a blown offside call. In both cases, the Leafs had a chance to offset the errors if they had simply concentrated. Instead, the Leafs' league-worst (by a country mile) failed and the fire drill defending couldn't clear the puck.

However, one call that was out of their control came after Ian White tried to kick a puck out of danger but ended up directing it towards the Leafs' empty goal. Toskala reached back and snatched the puck just as it was about to cross the goalline. Now, the ref on the ice called it a goal and after viewing it from multiple angles the Video Goal Judge was apparently unable to overturn the call because it was inconclusive therefore he couldn't overrule the on-ice judge. However, nowhere in the rule does "incontrovertible evidence" get mentioned. In fact, it says that once the call goes up to Video Goal Judge his ruling is the only one that matters:

Rule 39 - Video Goal Judge

39.1 General Duties – The following are the general duties of the Video Goal Judge:

(i) He will review replays of disputed goals when requested to do so by the Referees.

(ii) He will review replays of disputed goals when he observes an incident that was undetected by on-ice officials.

(iii) After viewing the incident he will promptly convey his decision directly to the Referee at the penalty bench. When a play has been referred to the Video Goal Judge, his decision shall be final.

(iv) During the review he may consult with a member of the League’s Hockey Operations or Officiating department staff if latter is in attendance at the game (or via telephone).

(v) No goal may be awarded (or disallowed) as a result of video review once the puck has been dropped and play has resumed following the first stoppage of play after the potential goal.

On that basis it's hard to believe that he saw the puck actually go in. What it looks like is that the referee guessed that it must have gone in and the Video Goal Judge was not willing to overturn the goal. It would be nice for the NHL to release any high-def video it uses because on my TV, in slow motion, it might have gone over the line just like Stempniak's against Chicago.

Again, the main problem was that the Leafs' were terrible and it started on the back end:

Ron Wilson: It was a giveaway fest in the second period we couldn't find any loose pucks and we got pushed out of the way. Our defence just wasn't any good last night.

The interesting part of the post-game presser was that Wilson led the way in showing us a good way to deal with this game: move on.

Wilson: We weren't as sharp as we needed to be. Playing at a high level every night is not possible when you're playing 4 games a week. We'll put it behind us and move on. The 3rd period showed we weren't going to roll over

The bottom line is that the Leafs faced the very team they have been for the last while (but with better goaltending) and they weren't able to summon the desire. Whether that's because of the schedule, as Ron Wilson notes, or because they lack the forwards to fight through tight checking, I think that this definitely played a part, is up to the viewer but the Coyotes certainly did their part as James Mirtle highlights in his piece for the G&M.

Note: I embedded the entire presser because I think it's worthwhile viewing. These are available on the Maple Leafs' official website and part of the fun is watching the trepidation with which some questions are asked and the scorn with which he replies but overall, despite the media's complaints, I find Wilson is pretty forthcoming in these. He highlights his ideads on the team's shortcomings, identifies who didn't perform, and generally tosses some humour in.

Coyotes at Maple Leafs - Game #34 Preview - We're Just Visiting

OdinMercer — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:07:54 -0000

More photos » by John Smierciak - AP

about 1 month ago: Chicago Blackhawks players celebrate their first goal by Patrick Kane in the first period of an NHL hockey game against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Chicago, Ill., on Friday, Nov. 13, 2009. (AP Photo/John Smierciak)

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Just in case there was any confusion amongst the general hockey public, this is only a brief stop in Ontario. We're not staying. Just wanted to clear that up real quick like. Your Phoenix Coyotes will take on the oft schizophrenic Toronto Maple Leafs in their only meeting of the year. As one would expect the media is swirling with the boys in town what with all the mess over the summer and now the impending sale. I would think that by this point the guys aren't going to be influenced by that much and can hopefully just focus on the game and prevent what happened on Monday from occurring again.

Toronto has been up and down in the standings this year getting off to a terrible start. Though as of late they've really turned their game up a few notches and have climbed back within reach of a playoff spot. The Leafs are 7-3-0 over the last 10 games and have won the last five games they've played at Air Canada Centre (re? Really?) The Coyotes aren't too shabby themselves at this point with a 6-3-1 over the last ten, but the Coyotes need to improve on their road record. treading water at 7-7-2 is alright, but if we want to make a push in the standings we need to collect more road points.

Five for Winning

Bryz Needs to be Solid Early
At the beginning of the Detroit game Ilya Bryzgalov was "fighting the puck" as Tyson Nash repeatedly stated on the broadcast. He was all over the place and didn't seem to have vision of the puck at all with 2 of the 3 goals against beaing really awful goals. He needs to be the anteater and collect any and all pucks in his vicinity early on to get his confidence up. Though if his behavior in the locker room with the media today was any indication, hes loose and hopefully ready to go.

Test Toskala Early
Vesa Toskala has been suspect in goal for the Leafs at the best of times this year. Toronto fans go back and forth on wanting to drive him out of town with pitchforks and then loving him and wondering who the heck the new goalie in net is when he does well. Hopefully we see swiss cheese Toskala and not not the one doing flips to make saves.

See Just How Truculent the Leafs Are
Truculence was one of the buzzwords that seemed to stick on this now Brian Burke built team. THe idea was that they were going to be a really tough group of guys to play against. While at times the Leafs have shown spurts of that toughness, they've also had a great deal of games where they simply get pushed around. Not only that, but the Coyotes seem to have their best games when they are out there hitting. We need to get out there and put the body on a few guys early to set the tone.

The Curse of the Toronto Born Player
According to many Toronto fans the worst thing in the world is to have a Toronto born or Toronto traded player come back to play against them. It's very often a harbinger that the player will score a couple goals or do something else spectacular against them. Well tonight resident "enforcer" Paul Bissonette gets to play his first game in front of his family in Toronto. Already SkinnyFish of Pension Plan Puppets said:

Since Bissonette is a fighter, I’m calling the Gordie Howe hattrick for him tonight. Book it. Done.

We'll see soon SkinnyFish.

Do the Small Things Right
We couldn't get anything going against the Wings on Monday. Our Faceoffs were awful, we turned the puck over all the freakin' time. It was UGLY. Those are typically the things that we've had locked down that have helped us win so far this year. We win the faceoffs and control the puck. We've been pretty responsible in our own zone and kept teams from entering cleanly. Hopefully the practice that Tippett had them run through yesterday reenforced that as we just have to get back to basics.

Key Players

Radim Vrbata

#17 / Right Wing / Phoenix Coyotes

Height: 6-1

Weight: 190

Born: Jun 13, 1981

Had a laser to beat Jimmy Howard on Monday and leads the team in goals. It seems like his scoring touch from a few years ago hadn't completely evaporated and the move to get him fro Todd Fedoruk and David Hale was a great one.

Matt Stajan

#14 / Center / Toronto Maple Leafs

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Born: Dec 19, 1983

In case you didn't know he's the Leafs #1 Center. Seriously. I expect hate mail just for talking about this. Check out Bloge Salming for more information about this.

The Owie List

Phoenix Coyotes Injuries

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Kurt Sauer	head	10/07/2009

Toronto Maple Leafs Injuries

Probable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Colton Orr	eye	12/16/2009

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mike Van Ryn	knee	09/30/2009
John Mitchell	knee	11/24/2009
Carl Gunnarsson	elbow	12/01/2009

GO YOTES GO!

Coyotes at Maple Leafs

Chemmy — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 18:52:17 -0000

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Puck Drop: 7:30PM ET TSN

Our provincial rivals the Hamilton Coyotes are here in town for another big rivalry match. Oh. Well, nevermind. The Coyotes are from the Western Conference which means that they're probably better than the Leafs and none of us have seen them play or have any idea what colors they wear and who's on their team.

Over at SBNation's Coyotes blog Five For Howling OdinMercer (shown to the right) has posted an image of raking leaves which would be funnier if everything in Arizona wasn't burned to a crisp by their four hundred degree weather. I'm not sure if Coyotes fans will understand what a rake is or does. In fact the only thing harder to find in Arizona than Coyotes fans is potable water. Question: do Arizona residents need to rake cactus spines at any point during the year? Do cactus spines not fall off? Please let us know we're curious.

The Leafs look to make it five straight wins at home and with the Weekend of Horrors coming up (At Buffalo, Boston, Buffalo) this could be our last chance at a win for a while. Phoenix currently sits seventh in the West, ahead of Detroit, Dallas and Vancouver.

Ilya Bryzgalov has played very well this season but was shaky in Phoenix's loss to Detroit on Monday. Running down their player stats, Radim Vrbata leads the Coyotes with 10 goals, followed by Scottie Upshall with 9 and both Shane Doan and Robert Lang have 7. The Coyotes are a team that don't give up a lot of goals (75 GA in 33 GP, compared to Toronto's 97 GA) and they'll look to shut down the best friend of their worst enemy, one Mr. Phil Kessel.

Vesa Toskala starts his sixth in a row (please don't fail us now) and Luke Schenn enjoys game number three from the pressbox. I hope Wilson has a good plan here because while I'm not a huge fan of sending Schenn to the Marlies I'd rather have him in the AHL than the pressbox for an extended stretch. I'm not condemning the move though, Schenn's play hasn't been up to par and he needs to snap out of it. Hopefully this angers him up and gets him playing his game again.

There were rumors earlier this week of Jonas Gustavsson starting tonight but his return from the ablation was rushed last time and I hope the Leafs learned their lesson and sit him another week. He's an asset for the future and Toskala has played well over the past few weeks; no need to rush the Monster.

Don't forget your SPG picks and as always go Leafs go!

Senators outworked by Maple Leafs in 3-2 loss

Mark Parisi — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:54:42 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

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If only hockey games were decided after 20 minutes. Ottawa brought the play to Toronto for much of the first period, outshooting the Leafs 10-6, and had to walk out of the frame feeling good about their game. However, despite strong pressure throughout, they had nothing to show for it on the scoreboard.

Unfortunately for the Sens, they were unprepared for what the Leafs brought for the remaining 40 minutes. If the team thought Toronto was going to roll over, they guessed wrong tonight. Toronto proceeded to outhit, outwork, and outskate Ottawa for the remainder of the game, and Ottawa was not able to overcome their opponent’s adjustments in spite a strong effort of their own at the end of the third period.

Sens Heroes: Nick Foligno, Mike Fisher, Jason Spezza

Is it a good sign that two of the players on here were also heroes in the last game? At the very least, it’s encouraging.

Nick Foligno was Ottawa’s hardest working player on the ice for the third game in a row, and that’s saying something considering the efforts players like Fisher, Daniel Alfredsson, and Anton Volchenkov bring every night. But there was Foligno, driving his legs, going to the net, fighting along the boards, you name it. Once again, Foligno’s hard work around the net led to an easy goal for a teammate, this time Mike Fisher. If he keeps this level of play, he should see his point totals rise quickly.

Mike Fisher, the beneficiary of Foligno’s work on the night, put together a fine night of his own. Fisher was his typical self, racing all over the ice and generally playing smart, physical hockey. Too bad more of his teammates didn’t follow his lead.

Jason Spezza also had another strong game. He was second on the team with four shots and what can only be described as a fun goal, where he dangled Vesa Toskala while standing still and then used a strong wrist shot to put it in the net. It should also be noted that Spezza was a turnover machine in this game, but much of the credit for that goes to the Leafs, who seemed to have every passing lane clogged up once they made adjustments.

Sens Zeroes: Filip Kuba, Brian Elliot

Brian Elliot really doesn’t deserve to be here, but his first goal was a brutal softie that visibly emboldened the Leafs. It’s hard to call the first goal of the game a gamebreaker, but it really was. Elliot has been prone to bad goals at bad times and tonight was no different. Get well soon, Pascal!

Kuba, on the other hand, was a borderline Sens Killer tonight. A painful minus two with a power play assist, his play was so bad tonight that I wondered if he was trying to get traded. Bad decisions, bad passes, bad skating… bad, bad, bad. Also, bad.

Sens Killer #1: Phil Kessel
He embarrassed Elliot with a soft wrister to the glove side. I don’t really want to talk more about it. Watch the highlights, I guess.

Sens Killer #2: The Road
Ottawa drops to 5-8-1 on the road this year, and that is not going to get it done if the team wants to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. This team must play better on the road, plain and simple.

Say What?
There were two bench penalties for too many men on the ice tonight. Shockingly, neither was against Ottawa.

Hmmm:
Chris Phillips had another tip-in chance tonight. That’s two in two games. Phillips jumping into plays? Take note, Karlsson.

Speaking of…
If there was a "Solid Sens" category, Karlsson would be in there. He’s gotten steadily better since his call-up. Let’s hope this is a trend that continues.

Sens Killer #3: Toronto’s adjustments
You thought we were done with two? You were wrong. Credit must be given to the Leafs (and it hurt to type that) for the changes they made after the first intermission. They had passing lanes filled and Ottawa’s players stymied. It seemed like every option for outlet passes had a blue jersey draped over them. At one point, Volchenkov couldn’t even break out from behind his own net without turning it over. Cory Clouston usually is able to adjust what he sees on the ice, but there was no answer tonight.

Game Highlights:

S*ns at Leafs

Chemmy — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 15:56:53 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Just two guys laughing, having a good time.

Browse more photos »

Apologies for the profanity in the title I didn't want it to be terribly vague; "loser team from shit hole city comes to glorious capital of everything that's good in this world". The Ottawa S*nators are in town tonight meaning their usual collection of pillow soft gutless pukes are quite possibly skating on our home ice right now. Despicable. I'd advocate welding the doors shut and burning the ACC down if we could get everyone who works there and is involved with the Leafs out without the S*ns noticing.

Gustavsson is out but due to return in the middle of this week. Aside from one weak goal on Saturday Toskala actually kept the Leafs in a game with timely goaltending. He'll get the start tonight and has to know that fucking it up now means Gustavsson will get all the playing time he could want.

Pascal Leclaire is still out after God punished him for playing for Ottawa, meaning we'll see Brian Elliott in net tonight:

Brian Elliott

#30 / Goalie / Ottawa Senators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 201

Born: Apr 09, 1985

	GP	MIN	W	L	EGA	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2009 - Brian Elliott	17	976	8	6		45	2.77	460	415	.902	1

That's a face made for radio. Hoo-boy.

I really wish we had a phrase for "must win" in the sense that I despise Ottawa and can't stand that we haven't annihilated them and eaten one of their players' children at center ice without the annoying "must win" stigma. You know what I mean, the Leafs probably aren't a playoff team and yet they've played 30 must win games already this season. I'm thinking of a new term I'll get back to you all.

Until then this is the weakest team the Leafs are going to play in the next two weeks, let's build some momentum heading into games with Phoenix, Buffalo and Boston. Don't forget your SPG picks, check out the Battle of Ontario and Silver Seven Sens for more coverage and go Leafs go!

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Leafs Win, Isles Lose and My Dad is Taller Than Yours

blurr1974 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:29:56 -0000

Oh, he's serious.

Well that was fun, and sticks with what appears to be the Leafs recent penchant for lose one, win two. That means tonight's game against Boston should be a...oh. Crap. Maybe we should give this guy's dad a call and put him in the line up. Seriously, he's like...well, you can read it, can't you?

There's not much else that puts me in a better mood than when the Leafs win. Mainly because the Barilkosphere buzzes to life and fantastic posts of hope and possibilities flow through the intertubes and into my laptop. I still contend that the best part about being a Leafs fan is the fans. We can disagree on a multitude of issues, including ones pertinent to the Leafs. However, when the team wins, well it's just icing on the cake...

Our very own WAC knows a thing or two about starting and ending your day right. Take two looks at each of these before you eat, and two more before you got bed. You'll feel better for it. I promise.
Shocking I know, but even eyebleaf can get down. More shocking is how Jason Blake and Vesa Toskala can cheer him up. Since he's feeling positive, you know he's only thinking one thing. No not, that you pervert. Well, ok, probably that as well, but in addition to PLAYOFFS!!!1
The general has been watching the Leafs slowly crawl their way back to respectability. In the process, he's noticed a few players stepping up and making an impact. Also, he's been conspicuously absent lately so maybe you should go over to his blog and ask what's up with that...?
Hungry Leafs Fan is having two times the funn at Leafs games. Especially since they finally won one with him in attendance.
The Battle of Ontario's Five-O puts together two statements that in previous days would have seemed incongruent.
Leafs Fan Forever likes surprises.
Newcomer to MLHS, Derek Harmsworth shines an ever widening spotlight on the better players for the Leafs last night.
TSM finds it interesting that the MSM seems to think Burke will resign all the team's pending UFAs and RFAs thanks to the recent improvement in play. It's curious because Burke didn't jump the gun when things were down. Why would he do that now?
Norman James has Nazem Kadri coming to his radio program "Da Hook" on Friday night. I thought we might want to mark that in our calendars...
Terry Sawchuk is not just a footnote in Martin Brodeur's assault on the record books, he's an icon in his own right. SBN's own Copper & Blue introduces you to "Uke."
As I've recently discovered, Pennsylvanians are a rough and tumble bunch. MYFO has the proof, on video.

UPDATES

Jared recaps the win. Click. Click. BOOM.
The Other Vatican shows how when Phil Kessel was benched by Boston in the playoffs, he responded well when finally getting the chance to play. So, how will he respond to the Bruins tonight?
How can Mikhail Grabovski have continued success at the NHL level? Vintage Leaf Memories thinks it knows the answer.
And one more for good measure. Yours truly was contacted by NESN to talk about tonight's upcoming match against the Bruins. Can you spot the diss?

*This post was published live at 1:30 AM Pacific. I can't sleep, but I'll make another attempt soonnzndfzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz