SB Nation - Tim Stapleton

Improved Thrashers Depth Evident in AHL and ECHL Rosters

The Falconer — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:18:25 -0000

A look at the Chicago Wolves roster shows a jam packed lineup of Atlanta prospects.

Take a look at this list of 10 defensemen on the AHL roster:

Postma
Buckley
Sipotz
Lehman
Vernace
Oystrick
Hunt
Lewis
Kulda
McCarthy

That includes two guys who have played an entire season in the NHL (Oystrick and McCarthy). I remain concerned about the possibility of McCarthy eating up ice time that should go to Postma. Perhaps a minor league trade is in order to clear out some non-prospects (cough Scott Lehman cough).

At forward the Wolves have a lot of choices as well. Here is a hypothetical lineup (entirely my own opinion here):

Brett Sterling-Jason Krog-~~Anthony Stewart~~ Tim Stapleton
Andrew Kozek-Angelo Esposito-Spencer Machacek
Jordan Lavallee-Riley Holzapfel-~~Tim Stapleton~~ Anthony Stewart
Joey Crabb-Kevin Doell-Matt Anderson

Bench Rylan Kaip, Michael Forney, Johnny Pohl, Matt Siddall

Reading between the lines, it sure looks there could be some roster trickle down to the Gladiators this season. The Gladiators roster page has not been updated yet, but Chad Denny and Drew Paris appear to have been sent down already.

Thrashers - Nashville Home Game Analysis

The Falconer — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 15:13:28 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers forward Illya Kovalchuk works the puck against the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period of an NHL preseason hockey game, Monday, Sept. 21, 2009, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 4-2. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

Defense Ice Time

Forward Ice Time

The Predators brought their 2nd line, but left their 1st line back home. They brought pretty good defensemen as well. Probably the closest thing to a game featuring a balanced lineup so far in the pre-season.

Team discipline was a problem as the Predators ended up with 12:40 minutes of Power Play ice to the Thrashers 4:10 with the man advantage. The total shots are rather misleading in this context because of the special teams disparity. The Thrashers were certainly even of better in the scoring chances department at even strength.

One reason the Thrashers ended up short is that guys took penalties standing up for teammates after some borderline hits (Tootoo was involved--shockingly!). Kovalchuk and Enstrom both got tagged and Kubina and Throburn went to the box while trying to send a message. Valabik took a minor after leveling a guy who came into Pavelec's crease. Discipline is going to be important in the regular season, but it is a good sign that players care about their teammates--that hasn't always been the case in Atlanta. I've seen some bad hits where nobody did anything to send a message. It is yet another sign that this locker room is good and has fewer cliques than in the past.

**Falconer's take:

Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little Line: Looks ready to go to me. Ilya is just flying around in the pre-season and looks extremely excited about this year. I saw more sustained offensive zone shifts from this line again, which is another positive sign. Heading into this year, I was worried Bryan Little might have trouble matching his numbers of last year--but Ilya and Nik seem to get all of the attention of opposing defensemen leaving him wide open to shoot.

Enstrom-Bogosian: They looked like they were both in mid-season form (they were both +3 in the game). They played extremely well and read off each other like they have played together for years. The biggest danger might be that the coaching staff overplays them early and wears them out, but they are both young and have lots of energy.

Nathan Oystrick: Made a really bad decision to pinch up late in the 3rd period and missed. This left his D partner Pavel Kubina alone defending a 2>1 and the open man scored on Pavelec to cut the lead down to 5-3 and it gave Predators new life. I know Anderson likes offense from his D, but with just under 4 minutes left and a 2 goal lead you don't need to make low probability plays.

Mark Popovic: I noticed him much less last night, but looking at the ice time he also played a lot less. He made a mistake at one point but I can't remember now what it was.

Boris Valabik: His skating looks so much better this fall it is very noticeable. However, he got blown around a couple of times in this game. And he can't go to the penalty box alone so often. He led all Thrashers with 6:42 on the PK.

Jim Slater: I've been hard on him in the past, but he's looked pretty good in both pre-season games. With his hustle he got a loose puck to Josh Gratton who scored from way over on the wall for the 1st goal of the game.

Tim Stapleton: I suspect he will start the year in Chicago, but he could be called up if the Thrashers have an injury on a scoring line. He made a terrific pass to set up Josh Gratton's 2nd goal. It was a 2>1 rush and the opposing defenseman went down to block off the passing lane. Stapleton kept going and the moment he was clear of the sprawled out D-man's skate he made a hard pass right to the slot which Gratton put past the goalie. For my money Stapleon looks like he has the puck skills to jump in and not hold back a scoring line. His lack of size makes it unlikely he would end up on a checking line.

Maxim Afinogenov: He looked a little raw early. He lost the puck twice on his 1st or 2nd shift of the game. Once he got his feet under him the NHL speed was apparent. He had one of his typical rushes where he flies up the ice, makes some stickhandling moves, shot, glove save.

Ondrej Pavelec: Still has problems overplaying the puck once or twice a game--he got lucky both times. One Nashville player mishandled the puck and on the other his D-man got to the rebound first. The 3rd Nashville goal, which gave them renewed life in a blow out at 17:52 of the 3rd, probably should not have gone in. Maybe I'm being too harsh because it was a 2>1 pass right to the slot.

Evander Kane: He looked much better last night than when they played the Predators one week ago. He looked more confident and fluid in his skating. He had a couple of shot attempts. He still has a lot to learn in terms of exploiting NHL defenseman, but you can see that he has the foundation to be a very exciting player down the road.

Josh Gratton: Could he really steal Eric Boulton's job? I'm not an expert on fighters, but he showed some very nice hands last night. On both plays, the passer deserves some credit, but Gratton did his part and finished. The 1st one was a bad goal for the Nashville goalie, but the 2nd goal was a nice bang-bang play at the net.

Joey Crabb Vs Dan Fritsche: These two guys are probably battling for the same job. Both were +1 and got some time on the PK. I don't see a huge difference between them, but I liked Crabb a little better last night.

Pavel Kubina: I'm very impressed by how he can lean on people and not get called for interference. He's big and he is constantly in the way of opposing forwards. He must be annoying as hell to play against. I just hope regular season refs don't start calling him for that stuff.

**Tim's Take:

I figured I'd chime in with a few additional comments. Falconer and I seemed to have different impressions of Boris Valabik, for one.

Boris Valabik: Yes, his skating looks better than last year, but he was barely able to keep up out there. Rather than play D deep in the Thrashers' defensive-zone, he seemed like he was always trying to hang by the face-off circle. This was giving him an advantage in getting up to the neutral zone with the team, but he was leaving his defensive partner all alone near the net. I think Boris has the right tools to play in the NHL, but I'm not sure if he's a good fit for our system this year.

Evander Kane: We all expect rookie mistakes, but what I saw from Evander Kane last night was important: he looks like he can keep up with NHL-sized players. He played strong on the puck, and while he got pushed off a few times, he'd go right back after it. He has a tenacity that will help him adjust to the NHL game faster. We will hopefully get to see him for the whole year, but at the very least, I expect a 9-game tryout.

Maxim Afinogenov: I was at the game with my girlfriend and we were sitting next to a couple people who were at their first hockey game. Every time Max got the puck, they were oooh-ing and aaah-ing. I'm not saying that we should sign Max because he's an exciting player, but for a city that needs to create some excitement around hockey, this guy is a heck of a lot of fun to watch. Sign him for Todd White-money (low-to-middle $2 million range) and I'm satisfied. I'd play him with Kane and White or Peverley and watch them zoom all over the place ... *or* ... play him with Peverley and Armstrong (a guy who can go hard to the net and finish the chances that Maxim generates.)

Josh Gratton: A lot of folks say we have the best 4th line in the NHL. They say that because our 4th line buzzes around and generates a lot of chances. This is true... but generating chances means nothing if you can't finish them. Josh Gratton showed an ability to finish chances last night. Conventional wisdom is that he's challenging for Boulton's spot... it'll be interesting to see where this goes.

Ondrej Pavelec: He looks ready to go. It'll be interesting to see how Legace plays on Friday (or Sunday).

Enstrom-Bogosian: Did you think these guys were just a flash-in-the-pan? Guess what? They aren't.

Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little: Those are three names you'll be hearing from our PA guy in scoring announcements... a lot... I will say, though, that Kovalchuk seemed somewhat tentative to shoot at times. I know he's got some scorers on his line now, but Kovy, please, for the love of God, SHOOT!

That's it from me for now, but I hope to have more to say if/when there are some cuts today. So far everybody is at the morning skate, so it's up in the air as to whether they make cuts.

ThrashersTraining Camp Job Battles Narrow

The Falconer — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:15:17 -0000

After two pre-season games the Thrashers have cut down their camp roster to 37 players who are still in the mix for NHL roster spots. I'm going to assume that these 9 forwards have NHL jobs: Kovalchuk, Kozlov, White, Antropov, Peverley, Little, Armstrong and Reasoner. So what does that leave?

Forwards: 4 starting spots and 1 or 2 bench slots.

Incumbents:

Challengers:

Thoughts: All of the incumbents have at least a one year NHL contracts and I would surprised if they failed to make the final roster. This last summer I wrote about the "myth of the best 4th line" and suggested that the Thrashers could find better players to flesh out the bottom of their forward ranks. But the Thrashers choose to re-sign Slater and Thorburn which indicates they think more favorably about that line than I do. If the incumbent 4th liners are all safe, that really leaves just one active roster spot and one or two bench slots available.

How might this race shake out? Personally, I've seen very little out of Dan Fritsche in practice or exhibition play, the guy looks like he's lost his mojo. Gratton is probably the only person really challenging Boulton for the tough guy slot, but I think the organization values Boulton's locker room presence enough that he keeps his spot. Machacek looks pretty good but he might still benefit from receiving bigger minutes in the AHL. Evander Kane has looked OK in pre-season but hasn't really amazed. I've already laid out the case for returning him to the WHL--the fact that he's not scoring in pre-season could make this decision easier.

That narrows it down to some veterans: Afinogenov, Crabb, Stapleton, Krog. Personally, I find Maxim Afinogenov incredibly frustrating to watch play. He has amazing stick handling skills and good speed but it seems like he rarely turns those attributes into goals. Still if he's willing to sign for a low price, it would be a low risk gamble with some upside potential. My guess is that if Evander Kane goes back to the WHL, Afinogenov might make the NHL roster if the price is right.

The other three guys--Stapleton, Krog and Crabb--are all AHL veterans who are no longer developing as prospects. They are all a bit undersized by NHL standards but have solid puck skills (Krog, Stapleton) or speed (Crabb, Stapleton). If the Thrashers were to keep Afinogenov and bump Peverley to the 3rd line, any one of these AHL veterans could step into 13th forward spot and it would not harm their development as it would a younger kid.

Prediction: My gut instinct is that Coach Anderson will give Jason Krog that 13th forward spot and one more crack at playing in the NHL. Krog and Anderson had some great seasons together in Chicago and if anyone knows what Jason brings to the table--it is Anderson.

Defense

The top four defensemen (Bogosian, Enstrom, Hainsey and Kubina) appear set and that leaves two starting positions and a bench slot up for grabs.

Incumbents

Challengers

I would cross Vernance off the list first. He looked totally out of his league in Nashville and I'm surprised that he survived the most recent round of cuts. I haven't seen Welch in game action, but like Dan Fritsche you have to really look hard to notice him in training camp. I'm a big Grant Lewis supporter, but he's clearly still recovering from his significant knee injury. Postma probably needs a full season in the AHL playing against bigger men.

That leaves 3 incumbents and 2 challengers battling it out for 3 slots. So far Kulda and Popovic both have played well and gotten the attention of Coach Anderson. I would not be surprised if either were on the team opening day. The biggest problem for Kulda is that he can be sent down that gives the Thrashers a quality first call up should injuries strike. With Popovic they have to fish or cut bait soon--which gives him more leverage in some respects.

The real question is who would they knock off? I can't see Valabik going anywhere. His size and physicality are badly needed on this roster. I do think that both Salmela and Oystrick could be vulnerable to losing their spot. Oystrick in particular looked very nervous and rough at times in the Nashville pre-season game. Perhaps, it was just initial nerves but if he continues to struggle in pre-season he could end up on the outside looking in. Salmela was ridiculously non-physical in Nashville allowing opposing forwards to do pretty much whatever they wanted. He can't continue to play like that and hold a NHL D spot.

Summary: If Oystrick and Salmela can play like they did at the end of last season, they should hold off Popovic. The next few games will be crucial.

Goaltender

The incumbent Lehtonen is hurt yet again and his lack of professionalism is irritating a team that needs someone reliable in the nets. The Opening Night starting job is a free for all. Ondrej Pavelec played a very strong game in Tampa on Friday. MacIntyre played a strong period in Nashville. Manny Legace is a NHL pro with a long track record. Johan Hedberg is the sentimental favorite of many, but is under heavy pressure this camp. The Thrashers have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs assuming they get solid goaltending most nights. If Legace looks better than Hedberg, the team would be wise to put keep him, skill not likability must determine this contest.

Expectation: Lehtonen starts the season on IR, with Pavelec and Legace on the opening night roster.

Nashville Post-Game: Anderson Looking for NHL Players, Kulda Responds

The Falconer — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 14:42:48 -0000

The Atlanta Thrashers lost 5-0 on Thursday in Nashville, Tennessee. It was a game in which they were out-played and out-shot 33-22 as their top scorers and top defensemen did not dress. After the game, Coach Anderson was philosophic about the outcome.

"Everyone has their own philosophy about who to dress on a certain night. Nashville dressed their best line and they were men among boys out there. And that's OK, that's part of it. We had indoctrination by throwing them into the fire to see how they would react.

Anderson thought the rough 1st period was a case of stage fright as much as anything else.

"They were nervous, you could see it right from the start. Oystrick falls down with no place to go. It kind of scared everybody. They were nervous whenever they had the puck. It got better as the game went along. We did make some plays, we have to remember that none of these guys have really played together."

There was both a talent and experience mis-match between the Thrashers and Predators last night. I asked Coach Anderson what his goal was for that game.

"Very simple, I want to see if someone can play in the National Hockey League."

Did anyone make that kind of statement in the 5-0 loss?

"Arturs Kulda stepped up. He had some big hits and a big fight. MacIntyre was strong in the 1st period. Popovic got better as the game went along. Stapleton and Krog--I liked them too. I thought Evander Kane got better as the game went along."

For prize rookie it is a big adjustment going from facing junior players to NHL level competition. Coach Anderson pointed out that this is Kane's first taste of what NHL game action looks like. It is the first step in evaluating his readiness for the big leagues.

"Kane has played against junior players. Even at the Traverse City Camp he mainly faced junior guys. We need to see how he reacts if he is going to play in this league."

Mark Popovic was very active in the contest. He frequently pinched all the way to the slot area trying to spark some offense. Anderson noticed his aggressive play.

"I had [Mark] a couple of years ago in Chicago. He scored something like 16 goals for me. He's an offensive guy who can handle the puck and he's a decent skater, so we have to look at him pretty closely"

Drew MacIntyre

In the first period Drew MacIntyre single handedly kept the contest close. The Thrashers were back on their heels in awe of Nashville. He stopped numerous point black chances. He did allow 2 goals in the first, but in each case he made the initial save and the puck went to the opposite side of the ice. Once a goalie is down, it is very difficult to respond to a change in the point of attack. Coach Anderson talked about his game:

"I don't know exactly how many shots we allowed in the first period, but he kind of kept it close for us. It was his first game and I think he was drained by the end. The only goal I didn't like was Weber's goal. But it is, what it is. Overall I thought he played a strong game. We had a lot of action around him and for a first game it was pretty tough on him."

After the game Drew MacIntyre was kind enough to talk about his start. It was the first time he had played an entire NHL pre-season game, in previous stops he had been allowed just one period to show what he could do. Don Waddell had mentioned the previous day that they scouted MacIntyre in the AHL and really wanted to add him to their organization. I asked him about the Thrashers pursuit of him over the summer.

"I was a little surprised--with the goalies that they have in their organization. But I'm grateful for the opportunity. I just wish that I had played better for them."

Asked to assess his game, MacIntyre felt he made some strong plays early, but made some mistakes as the game wore on.

"I wanted to give our team a chance to win. I think I did that at the start, but then I let in some soft ones. It is disappointing way to start...I was too deep in my net, I have to get out higher for those."

MacIntyre was obviously not pleased with the final outcome of the contest, but he did draw some confidence from making some tough saves on NHL level shooters.

"I know that I can play here [in the NHL.] I have to play better than I did tonight. I'm ticked off about the weak goals and I'll work to address that."

Tim Stapleon

Another pleasant surprise for the Thrashers in an otherwise rough evening was diminutive forward Tim Stapleton. He came to Atlanta this summer as part of the Exelby for Kubina trade. He is now past age 25 and not really a prospect anymore, but after 4 years of college hockey and 2 years in the Finnish league and one season in the AHL, he's a polished offensive hockey player. Stapleton's scoring numbers in the AHL are similar to numbers that Rich Peverly put up in the minors. If Stapleton does not make the Thrashers out of camp, he could be called up to replace an offensive player in the team lineup.

Stapleton had played just one pre-season NHL game prior to last tonight. He said that he received only a small amount of ice time in that contest. The Thrashers game him a much longer look last night and they informed him that he will play in the 2nd pre-season game in Tampa Bay on Friday.

He was very active during the contest and displayed both good skating ability and puck abilities. I asked him about his play.

"I was trying to do everything that the coaches wanted me to do. The coach likes skilled plays and I was trying to use my skill and do good things when I had the puck. I started off slow, but felt better as the game went along. I thought our whole line played much better. It was tough to lose, but we'll have to focus on tomorrow."

Stapleton was traded for the first time in his career and is adapting to a new organization. I asked him if there was a significant difference between the systems used by the two franchises.

"I think so. We're a little bit more open here in terms of using our skill and making plays. In Toronto they focus a lot on getting the puck deep and not turning it over. I feel a bit more comfortable here with the style the coach wants us to play. I'll keep trying to make plays and hopefully good things happen."

I asked him about the mid-summer trade to Atlanta and the opportunity for him in this organization.

"I thought we were close to a signing a deal with Toronto. I had actually moved back there this summer-that's how the business works. To be traded here, I was really excited and I'm still excited. I think this is a good opportunity for me in a new organization that wants me to play the style of game I'm capable of playing."

Training Camp Preview: Position Battles Among AHL Veterans

The Falconer — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:49:06 -0000

NHL Training Camp is still about six weeks away from beginning and hockey news is rather sparse. So I decided to put together a table that looks at the AHL stats of F, D and G who will fighting it out at camp for NHL jobs. I tried to include everyone who played in the AHL last season or the season before that (Oystrick, Stewart) who is under contract with the Thrashers.

My table does not include Evander Kane or Angelo Esposito who both played junior hockey last year. I did include Rich Peverly and Bryan Little in the table--even though both those guys have locked up a roster spot, I found it interesting to see how their stats compared to other players.

First up we have the Forwards. I have chosen to list them in the order of their age (except for Bryan Little who I added after I listed all the other forwards). Age is extremely important since a 20 or 21 year old player is MUCH more likely to take a dramatic step forward and a guy at age 25 is close to being a physically mature prospect.

Forwards

Player	Age	08-09 NHL Games	08-09 AHL Games	Career NHL Points Per Game	Career AHL Points Per Game	Career NHL Plus/Minus	Career AHL Plus/Minus
Spencer Macheck	20	0	74	.00	.43	0	+8
Riley Holzapfel	20	2	77	N.A.	.60	N.A.	+10
Jordan LaValle	23	2	64	.50	.48	+1	-15
Anthony Stewart	24	59	0	.11	.51	-4	-19
Brett Sterling	25	6	52	.21	1.04	-5	+17
Joey Crabb	26	29	42	.31	.49	-2	+24
Tim Stapleton	26	4	70	.25	1.06	-3	+15
Josh Gratton	26	19	21	.07	.33	-13	+13
Rich Peverley	27	39	27	.49	.95	+16	+14
Jason Krog	33	4	74	.29	1.19	+5	+41
Bryan Little	21	79	0	.53	.74	-7	+1

A few things jump out at me when I look at these numbers. Peverley was very hot in the 2nd half and that led to his NHL plus/minus being better than his AHL numbers--I expect him to come back down to Earth a little bit next season. Riley Holzapfel is two months older than Spencer Macheck, but the younger player has the better statistical profile. Gratton is a fighter who comes from a tough organization (Flyers). I'm all in favor of signing tough guys rather than using a draft pick on one. In my mind there simply isn't enough difference between a NHL and AHL tough guy to merit using a draft pick that could potentially land an impact player.

LaValle's NHL scoring rate is higher than his career AHL scoring rate--and since the AHL rate has a larger sample size it is probably a better indicator of LaVallee's true NHL offensive skill level. I'll be shocked if Jordan keeps up that half a point per game pace. On average AHL players who make the NHL only keep about 45% of their AHL scoring rate when they move up. Crabb and LaVallee head to camp competing for the same checking line job. The stats suggest that LaVallee has more offensive upside than Crabb, but the plus/minus indicates Crabb has the better two way game. (Plus/minus is not good measure of defensive ability--but it is a good measure of Even Strength Goal Differential which is very important to winning hockey games.)

Anthony Stewart is a mixed bag. On the one hand, his AHL scoring rate suggests he has slightly underachieved offensively in the NHL, but his ugly AHL plus/minus numbers suggest he wasn't much of an impact player in the minors. One year Stewart had a bad plus/minus on a weak team, but the other year he finished nearly dead last in plus/minus on a roster where most players were a slight plus.

Four players (Sterling, Peverley, Stapleton and Krog) have all averaged around a point per game in the AHL. That suggests that they all have sufficient NHL puck skills to play at a high level. Of that group, Peverly and Krog have gotten some real opportunities to make the league. Sterling has never really gotten the long audition he should have received in my opinion (such as last year) and Stapleton might also just need an extended NHL trial to prove himself. Peverley has a NHL job, but the other three might earn one out of camp or have a chance to impress with a mid-season injury call up.

Defense

Player	Age	08-09 NHL Games	08-09 NHL Games	NHL Career Points Per Game	AHL Career Points Per Game	NHL Career Plus/Minus	AHL Career Plus/Minus
Arturs Kulda	21	0	57	N.A.	.26	N.A.	+10
Chad Denny	22	0	40	N.A.	.22	N.A.	-2
Boris Valabik	23	50	11	.09	.17	-16	+41
Scott Lehman	23	1	50	.00	.13	0	-8
Grant Lewis	24	1	54	.00	.39	0	+33
Anssi Salmela	26	26	40	.23	.60	+1	-8
Nathan Oystrick	26	53	0	.23	.54	-2	+8
Noah Welch	26	40	7	.12	.48	-4	+25

Kulda was a top defensemen for Chicago all last year. He's the youngest guy on this list. I think he will become a NHL player, it just a question of when. Chad Denny on the other hand struggled to get into the lineup in the AHL and was even tried as a forward--he's yet another example of a string of busted draft picks to come out of the QMJHL (more on that in a future post).

I know some posters on the official boards are down on Valabik--and he is still rather raw in his decision making at times. But he is still just 23 with some time to take another big step forward. Lehman on the other struggled to suit up in the AHL last year is simply not a very good player. Lewis is 24 but injuries have cost him a year of development, I thought he looked fine in his one NHL game last year.

Salmela, Oystrick and Welch are all fighting for the last few defenseman roster spots and none of them can be considered prospects anymore at they are 26 now. All three players averaged roughly half a point per game in the AHL at age 25 or 26. None are considered outstanding defenders but all three fit into Coach Anderson's offensive minded system and have the puck skills necessary to play with NHL level forwards. Whether they have the hockey IQ or the defensive skills to hang with NHL forwards is the big unknown.

Goalies

Player	Age	08-09 NHL Games Played	08-09 AHL Games Played	Career NHL Save %	Career AHL Save %	Career NHL Goals Against Average	Career AHL Goals Against Average
Ondrej Pavelec	21	12	40	.890	.912	3.42	2.69
Peter Mannino	25	0	50	.885	.900	4.51	2.94
Drew MacIntyre	26	3	34	.864	.918	2.95	2.36

None of the three AHL Veteran goalies have really torn it up at the NHL level. Pavelec has the major advantage of being just 21 at a position where many goalie don't hit their stride until their mid 20s. He has already put up a career AHL SV% close that of MacIntyre who is 5 years older than him.

Conclusion

It is far too early to try and figure out who will win those last roster spots coming out of camp. However, it is August and this is a blog. So let's imagine one of you kidnapped my cat and forced me to make a prediction about the NHL Opening Roster--my guesstimate appears below.

I suspect the competition for the last two forward spots is going to be just brutal. I can imagine LaValle or Crabb sneaking in under the wire too. I'm guessing Evander Kane goes back to the WHL, he might get into a few NHL games. This also assumes no waiver wire pick ups as well. Among the unknowns there is also training camp injuries which often open up a spot.

F1 Kovalchuk-White-Antropov

F2 Kozlov-Peverley-Little

F3 Macheck-Reasoner-Armstrong

F4 Boulton-Slater-Thorburn

D1 Enstrom-Bogosian

D2 Hainsey-Kubina

D3 Valabik-Oystrick

G1 Lehtonen-Pavelec

Bench: Stewart, Hedberg, Salmela

How to Build a Cup Contender in Atlanta, Part 6

The Falconer — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 19:18:44 -0000

Intro: Recap of the "How to Build a Cup Contender in Atlanta" So Far.

In Part 1 of this series I pointed out that contrary to popular Canadian belief, not all non-southern markets are destined to be revenue poor. Atlanta is very similar to the Dallas market (ranked 10th in revenue). What is lacking in Atlanta is a compelling on ice product. In Part 2, I argued that the mark of good NHL management should be building a Cup Contender and I demonstrated that 90% of recent Cup winners finished in the top 6 overall standings. In Part 3, I showed that in the short run the Thrashers have been one of the poorest teams and management faces a huge challenge of winning on budget--in order to grow revenues. The good news is that the gap between rich and poor teams is MUCH smaller under the current CBA. In Part 4, I noted that Atlanta must squeeze out value from every dollar spent--which means taking advantage of market inefficiencies. I suggested that bargains are more likely to be found on the defensive side because offense is easily measured. In Part 5, I looked at the NHL draft and argued that a revenue poor teams should always use its 1st round pick for a player with offensive skills (easily measured by NHL teams) and pursue good defensive player later (inaccurately measured by NHL teams). I also suggested that since the NHL undervalues small skill players, a revenue poor team would be wise to take chances on such players later in the draft (see: Buffalo Sabres recently). Today in Part 6 I look at free agency and talent acquisition. In the future I will discuss strategic timing within the contending cycle.

The Winner's Paradox or Why You Can't Build A Team Through Free Agency

Stanley Cup contenders are built through a variety of methods. Tampa Bay Lightning build their team around a 1st overall draft pick (Lecavlier), an amazing minor league signing (Martin St. Louis) and a highway robbery trade (Dan Boyle) a regular trade (Khabibulin). Detroit uses a combination of player development (Zetterberg and Datsyuk) that is supplemented by free agents and trades.

Teams that try to try to "buy a championship" almost always fail. For example, in baseball the New York Yankees were a powerhouse when they mixed free agents with home grown talent (Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, etc) and when the farm system fell quiet they spent a lot of money with a declining return on their investment. In hockey, the New York Rangers keep spending to the cap max but their failures in talent development (Hugh Jessiman) have not given them a sufficient base of cheap young players to leverage their financial advantage into a power house the way Detroit has.

And now for the dirty little secret of why it is impossible to build a contender completely through free agency. It is called "The Winner's Paradox" by behavioral economists. NHL free agency operates something like an auction. There are 30 teams with money to spend and each team is looking at the assets available to bid upon. Each team makes an estimate of how much each player is worth--so far this appears entirely rational. In theory the market should accurately price what each free agent deserves to be paid.

But who actually determines the winning price in an auction? The 2nd highest bidder. When the 2nd highest bidder decides not to spend any more money, the highest bidder then wins (we have no idea just how much more the winner was prepared to spend). Now consider this basic fact--teams will vary in their ability to accurately price talent. If we have 10 teams chasing after Alexei Kovalev (and we assume for the moment that Kovalev only cares about money) then the the team that most over-estimates his value will win the auction. This is the winner's curse--those that overestimate will overpay and live to regret their success at the auction.

If you look around the NHL the most competently run franchises rarely make big headlines in free agency (Sharks, Wings, Devils, Wild, Hurricanes). And sometimes when a well run team does make headlines they regret it later (see Dallas Stars-Sean Avery). Teams that run around snapping up free agents like Imelda Marcos shopping for shoes (Tampa Bay last summer, New York Rangers every summer) seldom hoist the Cup or even finish high in the standings.

For one more example of the problem of free agency consider the Boston Bruins in the summer of 2005. The Bruins thought that players would be cheap after the lockout and so they made sure that almost all their player contracts expired. The Bruins figured they would have more money to spend and therefore would make out like bandits in the free agent market. However their plan completely backfired when the NHLPA agreed to a 25% salary roll back which gave every other team more money to spend. The Bruins avoided making foolish offers and were outbid by many other teams that summer. They ended up spending a lot of money and ended up with just an average team. This free agent miscalculation led to their GM being fired and their marquee player (Joe Thornton) being traded.

Building Without Free Agency

Well managed teams use free agency not as a primary means of roster construction, but as a supplemental process to fix specific roster holes. Almost every free agent is "overpaid" by some foolish bidder--a revenue poor franchise like the Thrashers cannot hope to beat out the foolishness of Glen Sather. How do you construct a Cup conteding roster on a budget then? Let's review the four sources of talent:

THE DRAFT: The primary means of acquiring inexpensive talent. Teams on a budget need to be excellent here.
FREE AGENTS: A supplemental means, talent is expensive for a team on a budget.
TRADES: an unpredictable means of finding talent (Craig Button will not always have a job).
"NEARLY FREE" TALENT: a consistent means rarely utilized: waivers, minor league free agents.

I've already discussed ways to maximize the return on investment on Draft Day in part 5 and I just discussed whey free agency is not a sustainable path to contention. Every team would love to make a killer trade but they are rare enough that no team can count on that. That brings us to the last element "nearly free" talent.

What do I mean by "nearly free" talent? Every NHL player makes roughly $0.5 million--that is the minimum NHL salary under the CBA. If you are a NHL GM that is the bottom line--you cannot find talent that makes less money than that--half a million per player is a sunk cost. If the market perfectly priced every player--then in theory all players making the NHL minimum should be nearly worthless players--that is to say that they straddle the line between the NHL and AHL. This assumption is wrong. There are players making the NHL minimum that make significant and meaningful contributions every year. For a team on a budget finding those "nearly free" players is absolutely critical to building a contender.

Finding the Next Paul Ysebaert

In 1984 the New Jersey Devils drafted a winger named Paul Ysebaert in the 4th round. Ysebaert played three years of college hockey at Bowling Green and basically tore up the CCHA averaging over a point per game each season. He turned pro and tore of the AHL where he also averaged over a point per game. But the Devils only gave him 21 NHL games during his first three pro seasons. In 1989 the essentially gave up on him and dealt him to the Detroit Red Wings for a 4th round pick and a journey defenseman (Lee Norwood).

Upon arriving in Detroit, Wings GM and Coach Bryan Murray promptly inserted him on the scoring lines where he produced 84 Goals and 170 Points over the next 210 NHL Games Played. According to HockeyZonePlus, Ysebaert was paid a measly $155,000 + $300,000 + $325,000 for those three years. The Detroit Red Wings received nearly a point-per-game production from Ysebaert and paid just $680,000 for those points. The following season Ysebaert's salary would jump to nearly a million dollars ($750,000) and Detroit flipped him to the Winnipeg Jets (for a 4th rounder and Aaron Ward). Wings GM Bryan Murray got excellent production for a cheap price because he was willing to live with Ysebaert's iffy defensive play and because he had two strong centers to pair him with (Yzerman and Fedorov).

In my opinion, there is a Paul Ysebaert available all the time in the AHL--it simply takes good pro scouting and a GM who is willing to steal such a player and a coach willing to work around that player's short comings. For a budget minded team like the Thrashers finding the next Paul Ysebaert is very important. As I mentioned previoulsy "offense always get paid" on the UFA market, so the way to supplement a team's offense is to plan on using a cheap AHL player on the 2nd line who will chip in 40-60 for close to the NHL minimum. Getting scoring on the cheap is crucial because itfrees up some salary to address other team needs elsewhere on the roster.

Conclusion: Looking the next Paul Ysebart

Right now Rich Peverley is that guy. Claimed off waivers for essently the NHL minimum he ripped off a bunch of points when given an opportunity to play on a scoring and power play in the NHL. The Thrashers retain his rights and he will be very cheap for one more season. Assuming he plays on the 2nd line, he should be good for 40-60 points at the cost of half a milllon per season. After next season Rich Peverley may no longer be a bargain anymore. Another guy currently in the Thrashers system who could be another "Paul Ysebaert" is Brett Sterling. He is very small, lacks NHL quickness and will probably hurt you defensively. However, he has scored at every level NCAA and AHL. Another candidate for "Paul Ysebaert" status is the recently acquired Tim Stapleton who tore up NCAA for four years and averaged a point per game at the NHL level. The Thrashers have lined up a couple of good candidates and they should plan on having Sterling and Stapleton battle it out for a top six scoring line spot after Kozlov departs and Peverley becomes expensive.

If you are the Thrashers you can cound on one more cheap productive season from Peverly and then you need to line up the next cheap AHL veteran--and Brett Sterling might just be that guy.

Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Pavel Kubina, Tim Stapleton to Atlanta Thrashers for Garnet Exelby, Colin Stuart

PPP — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:00:23 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

Exelby's already read Burke's "How To Hurt the senators" manual.

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Yesterday the Toronto Maple Leafs traded defenceman Pavel Kubina and minor leaguer Tim Stapleton to the Atlanta Thrashers for defenceman Garnet Exelby and forward Colin Stuart. The Leafs do free up some cap space this season as all of the contracts save for Stapleton's expire at the end of the year. With this move, the Leafs cleared up about $3.124M in cap space according to NHL Numbers which they then promptly turned around and used to sign Mike Komisarek. However, the biggest consideration is probably a desire to have Kubina's minutes go to defenders that will form the future of the Toronto Maple Leafs rather than a player at the end of his contract. Steve thinks that the overloaded blueline means that the Leafs might still be looking to make more trades.

To tell you the truth, this deal doesn't pass muster in terms of what we previously expected from a Kubina trade. Part of that is likely that we saw Glen Sather dump salary and receive the Habs' top prospect. Now, obviously not everyone can be a terrible GM (Habs still suck no matter what you say) but Burke was trading with Don Waddell. DON WADDELL! He gave away Braydon Coburn for a shot at getting swept out of the playoffs. Adam Gretz points out just how rare it is to see Waddell come out on top:

As for the Kubina-to-Atlanta aspect: It's not everyday that we get to say this, but it's a hell of a trade by Don Waddell and the Atlanta Thrashers. To land a legitimate, proven top-four NHL defenseman, while only giving up, essentially, a couple of spare parts/fourth-liners is nothing short of a steal.

Not to mention that the Leafs didn't really need to give away salary. They had tonnes of cap space but what they did not have in spades was roster spots. This trade opens up a spot on the Marlies top two lines. We'll see what the Leafs do with the extra cap space since Burke said that he would be spending to the cap AND make the playoffs.

Looking around the league there are a number of teams that are close to going over the cap while still needing a number of signings. There are still three months until training camps open which means that Burke has a lot of time to look for trading partners that need to do some cap manoeuvring. The Leafs are still very well positioned to act as a salary dump for a team looking to free up some space in order to improve their team. The question is which teams are running out of cap space and still have roster spots to fill? Here's a list based on numbers courtesy of NHL's Cap:

Team	Cap Space	Players Needed
Philadelphia	$1.83M	3
Calgary	$2.06M	4
Boston	$2.27M	4
Pittsburgh	$4.76M	4
San Jose	$4.85M	7
Edmonton	$6.64M	4

Let's take a look at the individual pieces of the trade after the jump. Share your thoughts in the comments.

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Pavel Kubina	82	14	26	40	-15	94	9	0	4	0	184	7.6

Pavel Kubina leaves the teams three years after being one of John Ferguson Jr.'s marquee free agent signings. Though Pavel had a no trade clause there was a window open where it was voided because of the Leafs' failure to make the playoffs. As he makes his way to Atlanta he will likely think back to the vetored/rumoured trade to San Jose that never happened. Then again, maybe he'll like his reunion with the Southeast Division. Over the past season Kubina faced the 4th toughest competition at even strength and still managed to finish -15. Maybe we were just overrating him a tad? Not knowing the market for a defender making $5M a year perhaps a salary dump was the best deal that Burke thought that he could make.

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Tim Stapleton	4	1	0	1	-3	0	0	0	0	0	9	11.1

Stapleton is 5'8" and used to run the Finnish SM-liiga for Jokerit Basically, for him to play for Brian Burke he had to fulfill one of the top six forward spots with the Leafs or the Marlies. He was never going to do it for the Leafs so why bother having him clog things up with the Marlies?

To get to know the players coming from the Atlanta Thrashers I asked The Falconer of Birdwatchers Anonymous to provide us with some insight on the newest Maple Leafs:

Colin Stuart

#49 / Left Wing / Atlanta Thrashers

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Born: Jul 08, 1982

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Colin Stuart	33	5	3	8	3	18	0	3	0	0	54	9.3

Colin Stuart: Brother of Mark Stuart and Brad Stuart. Father works at Mayo Clinic and will be a doctor for Team USA at Olympics in 2010.

Stuart has ++ speed and +size. Not much in the way of hands so he's a checker. He scored a couple of shorthanded goals but don't be fooled, he basically just threw the puck at the goalie's feet and each SH goal allowed was an ugly goal.

Already 27 he's as good as he's ever going to be right now but he should make the Leafs roster out of camp as a checker. He could be a serviceable PK guy for the next 5 years.

So he sounds like a player that could replace Jamal Mayers at the end of the year.

Garnet Exelby

#2 / Defenseman / Atlanta Thrashers

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Born: Aug 16, 1981

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Garnet Exelby	59	0	7	7	-2	120	0	0	0	0	42	0.0

Garnet Exelby: I'm not a fan at all. Even at his peak he tended to get out of position going for the bit tattoo hit and created a lot of 2-on-1s for the opposition in the process. You're not going to intimidate many teams if they're celebrating a goal after you ran over their teammate along the boards.

He's toned down the hitting lately and reduce the odd man rushes against but lacks NHL passing skills. If he has the puck in the neutral zone he will just dump into the offensive corner. If he has the puck in the defensive zone he usually just chips it out allowing the opposition to re-group in netural and attack again. Did I mention that he's a poor penalty killer.

I can't tell you how happy I am to see him depart. My wife was laughing at how insanely pleased I am tonight. Sorry, to be the bearer of bad news.

Oh brother. I wish there was a video that could make me feel better about this trade...oh, here's one:

Obviously no one is going to be encouraged by seeing this trade. We all had hoped that Kubina would bring back a decent return and two players that could fill out the team's fourth forward line and the third pairing for the next few years isn't as bad of a return as draft picks that might turn into nothing. Then again, at least they'd have a chance to be something better. In the end, Kubina was taking up far too much ice-time that could have been better used for developing other players.

Poll

What was your original reaction to the Kubina-Stapleton for Exelby-Stuart trade?

We got who?

134 votes

This'll teach players to exercise their contractually agreed rights

35 votes

TRUCULENCE!

108 votes

When do the Marlies get sent to Charlestown?

12 votes

289 votes | Poll has closed

2009 NHL Free Agency: What The Toronto Maple Leafs Might Do

PPP — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:45:08 -0000

More photos » by Jeff McIntosh - AP

Mike Cammalleri turns his back on the Flames for the last time. Will he walk all of the way to Toronto?

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Someday I'll have to shake the hand of the guy that decided that it made sense to schedule the draft three days before the start of free agency. It's not like this day is so important that it's a national holiday in Canada. As a conversation starter because I still have a tonne of draft stuff to come I have a short cheat sheet to help us with a starting point.

Pending UFAs: Martin Gerber, Brad May, Bates Battaglia, Andre Deveaux, Boyd Devereaux, Jeff Hamilton, Kris Newbury, Ben Ondrus, Jay Harrison, Erik Reitz, Jamie Heward, Curtis Joseph, Olaf Kolzig, Jaime Sifers (Thanks Mirtle!)

Calling this a list of notable free agents would have been insulting to players like Eric Christensen. From that list I could see Boyd "SchennBlocker" Devereaux, Brad May, and one of Kris Newbury or Ben Ondrus getting re-signed. The first two would be great veteran influences on the younger players and the latter two could fill up roster space while kids learn on the farm.

Pending RFAs: Mikhail Grabovski, ~~Jaime Sifers~~ ~~(NHL Numbers has him as an RFA and Hockey Buzz as a UFA. I am looking into this)~~, Phil Oreskovic, Tim Stapleton, Jeremy Williams, Ryan Hollweg

Justin Poggegot qualified today so he's not on this list. I am actually pretty surprised that guys like Sifers and Oreskovic have not been qualified. Hollweg is gone and we'll never know what that fifth rounder could have brought. Other than knowing it wasn't going to be a European. Williams seems to not be a Wilson favourite, he's not good enough to play on the top two lines when the team is good again and he's past the stage where he should have established himself. We'll always have the 82 goals/season projections!

Based on my inability to find any news thus far I don't think any of the other guys have been qualified. Grabovski is likely going to arbitration which I think will mark the end of his time in Toronto. I get the sense that Burke will move him if he goes that route.

Salary cap space (courtesy NHL Numbers): $13-million

Now, if you look at NHL Numbers the Leafs have some ridiculous cap relief coming online after next season. They only have $18M committed. On the flip side, they only have five guys signed but one of them is Luke Schenn so I think that means that only need to sign a goalie. Either way, there are a couple of ways that Burke can approach this free agency period.

Scenario One

He can fill out the roster with the myriad of RFAs that are getting axed left and right or the lower end of the free agency pool. Burke would then keep any of the kids that cannot play in their proper role on the team with the Marlies. This would be akin to the Red Wings' policy of developing kids in Grand Rapids but with our NHL team stocked with scrubs and waiver-tied prospects instead of Hall of Famers. This one is tough because the idea would be to have UFAs on one year deals so that the cap space is still available next year.

Scenario Two

This is the one Burke has said that he wants to pursue but he also wanted to trade for more first rounders at the deadline and for Tavares and Schenn at the draft. So far he's 0-for-2 (and I'll have a post about why that's not entirely his fault) so even then there's no guarantee that this will work. This strategy can work long-term if he makes the right decisions. Mike Komisarek at $4m-$5M is a bad move. The Sedins at $5.25M is a great move. We'll see how much he has to overpay to get players to come to Toronto.

Projected budget: $56.8-million less $1. Whether he spends to it will be a function of the UFAs' receptiveness to his deal.

Key needs: Everything is the short answer. The longer one is that the Leafs' most pressing need is their goaltending situation. James Reimer and Justin Pogge will hold down the fort with the Marlies but Vesa Toskala is coming off of three major surgeries. If Burke really thinks that this team can make the playoffs he needs a competent backup.

In terms of defence, the Leafs have two years of Kaberle, one of Kubina and Van Ryn, and then 20 of Luke Schenn. After that, they'll need to look at how to replace Kubina and Kaberle. If they can do it this summer then they can cash in those assets. If all of the king's men and all of the king's horses put Van Ryn together again properly over the weekend even he might get something for the Leafs. Or he could be part of the team going forward. Burke, however, is really loathe to let Kaberle go. I am hoping that by the deadline Burke gets his doors blown off by a deal.

Looking at the forwards, there is obviously a dearth of skill forwards that are NHL-calibre. There are guys that have the potential to fill that role at some point but no one is a sure bet. I hear that there are a couple of interesting ginger twins available...

Potential targets: It might be easier to list who isn't a target. Take one part cap space, add a dollop (actually, more like a cup) of Burkian hubris, a pound of media speculation, mix well, and you get every big-ticket player being linked to the Leafs. Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin are getting their retirement plan from the Leafs. Francois Beauchemin, Travis Meon, and Samuel Pahlssonare being re-united with their former GM. Jonas Gustavsson is coming over to be the next Henrink Lundqvist while Mike Cammalleri is going to live up to the expectations that come with a 40% raise. I look forward to watching him score 60 goals a year for five years.

As I noted above, there are two scenarios and it sure looks like Burke is going through door number two. I think that the Sedins are going to be his main target. I've heard The Monster is ready to be unveiled July 1 and I would imagine that Burke looks at Beauchemin. The rumours of Komisarek and Chris Neil sicken me so I will pretend that I've never heard of them.

What our rivals want:

Colorado Avalanche: A real starting goalie and defence that can keep the puck out of the net. Also, a new medical staff to keep their players in one piece.
LA Kings: A sniper to play with their young forwards and a defensive defenceman.
Atlanta Thrashers: Defence and goaltending. The only year they made the playoffs was the one year that they weren't in the bottom 4 or 5 of the league in goals against.
NY Islanders: I'll tell you what they don't need: a franchise scorer (sigh). Other than that, they could use a goalie on a 15 year contract that actually plays hockey, and defencemen.
Phoenix Coyotes: A new owner. Zing! Actually, as Godd Till noted in a private e-mail, they need to get a new coach in order to escape from the mad clutches of the Friends of Gretzky. Did you know that the best man from his wedding, Eddie Mio, is the Director of Player Development and his brother Keith is the Head Scout. Failing that they could use some veteran leadership since the average age of that team is about 12.

SBN has once again put together a massive hub to coordinate the writing from 30ish blogs. You can find it by clicking on this button.

a href="http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/freeagency">

Some Musings on the Toronto Marlies

PPP — Mon, 27 Apr 2009 17:00:13 -0000

Editor's Note: So the Marlies have been officially eliminated from the playoffs. I meant to write a recap after the game but life happened. Anyway, here's my experience at the game and some thoughts on the torrent of complaints that have been fired at the Marlies, MLSE, the citizens of Toronto, and Justin Pogge.

As you can guess by the result I attended Tuesday night's Toronto Marlies game. It did not go well. In my defence, I went with a good friend of mine who is poison for the home team. We've seen one or two amazing wins but the vast majority have been clunkers. It even transcends sports since the Bills lost to Miami when we went. As we walked out I came to a realization: the Leafs have not made the playoffs since he moved to Toronto in May of 2005. We're currently working on figuring out if he has had relatives living in the city since 1967. I might be on to something.

The Marlies were taking on the conference's top seed in game four of their series looking to go up 3-1. Despite this the rink was essentially empty. Being in the rink, I can tell you that the attendance was even lower than TSM noted on TV. There were 500 people there last night. Maybe 750 tops since I am notoriously bad at counting crowds and didn't have the patience to count the fans one-by-one.

I don't know why people complain about the Marlies. "It's not the Leafs!" they cry but from my seat in the McDonald's section they looked just like the Leafs. They played hard but committed some bad turnovers, their PP could not score on a 5-on-3, they took some dumb penalties and their porous PK cost them the game. My partner in hockey watching was not impressed with Pogge. He took two penalties, one stupid and one hilarious (he skated out of his net to push over a Moose and then skated back), and his problems with screens continue. For such a big goalie he does a terrible job of making himself big and seeing past the screens. As a comparison, Roberto Luongo does those two things amazingly. You have to wonder what changed from the first three games when Pogge was outduelling Schneider but if it's any indication it's his teammates' awful play. They allowed 3 powerplay goals and made an atrocious giveaway on another. It doesn't totally absolve Pogge of blame but it certainly doesn't warrant getting benched in the deciding game of the series. I'd love to know the reasoning behind that move because it looks like a panic move by Gilbert and suggests that if player development is our goal that he might not be the man that should be in charge going forward.

I wasn't the only one that was curious enough about the Marlies to make my way down to the Ricoh to catch playoff hockey. TSM actually made it out to the Sunday game and has been a frequent visitor to the Ricoh with little TSM. He had a list of observations that reflect his greater familiarity with the Marlies games. Based on my visit there are some valid complaints. Others likely require multiple visits to notice.

The most obvious issue with the Marlies is the price of tickets. If you can believe it they've actually gone down with time but at $38 for the best tickets, $30 for anything on the side, $21 for the cheapest section and a limited amount of tickets at $13 they are still way out of whack with what will work in the GTA. My friend noted that he'd love to know who did the marketing report that suggested that those prices were feasible. The thing that seems to be lost on the decision makers is that Toronto is a major league city. There is such a wealth of world class events and attractions (insert joke about it being great to have a world class hockey team) that you cannot be charging those kinds of prices for the minor leagues. My friend made an observation that basically everyone in the Marlies organization was working towards the big club from the concession workers to the mascot Duke to the players and coaches. The price of tickets should reflect that reality.

Revamping the entire ticketing strategy goes hand in hand with addressing the slings and arrows that have been throw at Toronto's hockey fans. A lot of that rant is just that, ranting, and should probably be aimed at MLSE than the fans. It is unfortunate that the players do not get the support that they need or that their opponents feel great playing on the road in Toronto. Does it look bad when an OHL game outdraws the Marlies? Only if you don't bother considering the massive difference in ticket prices. Toronto Mike notes that the players are great with the fans, the PR/marketing department work their tail off, and the game is a good time. They have a band in the rafters which I actually enjoyed and was a nice change from the usual arena music. However, with parking at $12 and concessions being just as overpriced as the rest of MLSE holdings it makes a night out very expensive.

Those factors don't even consider the atmosphere. TFC, for the majority of its existence, have been terrible for a variety of reasons too many to list. They have also sold out every game, have 14,000 season ticket holders, and 7,000 on the waiting list. How come? Part of the reason is that going to a TFC game is an event. The crowd participation is unreal in the supporters sections and even the corporate seats make noise during the simpler chants. Compare that to the Ricoh where the crowd is sparse and the decibel level can be measured in single digits. If I was running the show I'd make all tickets the same price. The idea is obviously that the Marlies are in Toronto because that helps the development of the Leafs' prospects. It allows greater movement between the clubs which can help with the salary cap as well. Essentially, it is to the Leafs' advantage to be able to have the financial resources to lose money on the Marlies.

Along with the one-price policy I would close all sections outside of the middle two on each side until they were all sold out. Put tarps over the seats to keep people from spreading out. You can't create atmosphere if people are in isolated pockets all over the stands. It also makes it easier to run the promotions and giveaways that TSM suggested. The team is filling up with prospects so the attraction for the hockey fan to attend is building but the rest works to make going to the games an event which TSM is right to note is vital in Toronto.

These two moves are not without precedent. In 2006 they held the annual rookie tournament at Ricoh and I made it out to see the two games on Saturday. Those crowd numbers give you an idea of how bad I am at judging crowds since I would probably say that there were more along the lines of 1500-2000 people all on one side of the rink between the goal lines. They sold day passes for $15 (I think) or single game tickets for $10. The crowd was packed with fans out to see the futures of both clubs and included a lot of kids. It was boisterous and felt like something I would want to do again. Unfortunately, it bore no resemblance to a regular Marlies game.

Tie that in to cheaper concessions and you'll probably end up actually making money because more people will be at the games. The concessions should not be the same price as the rest of the MLSE empire in just the same way as McDonald's doesn't charge $30 for a burger just because some high-end restaurant does the same. Build better deals and take your lead from the southern hockey markets. The Marlies are essentially in the same boat in that they are trying to sell a product that people are not used to consuming. The problem with wait-times is true of every stadium run by MLSE. At BMO it is a hassle to get any food or beverages at half-time. It has to be considered to be a failure that no thought was given to the fact that the 15 minute half-time break is the only time when most of the crowd will go to eat/use the washrooms. Not to mention the narrow concourses! At the Ricoh it's more an issue of a lack of flexibility for payment. There was only one POS machine for credit/debit payments. That is just unacceptable. Everyone working the concessions is doing their best but they are hamstrung by a lack of foresight on the part of the planners.

Those are just a few of the changes that I would make to improve the Marlies' operations. Anyone here that has been to a game probably has at least a recommendation or two and I'd love to hear them. As Toronto Mike noted they are doing a lot of good work but some major decisions have hampered their efforts. The team, historically, was stocked with proven AHLers rather than Leafs' prospects, ticket prices are out of whack with what the market will bear and what makes sense for a minor league team, and the concessions are a mess.

However, there are a lot of things that they can tap into going forward. Getting to Ricoh is unbelievably easy. TFC has benefitted from it's shared location at the Exhibition stop on GO Transit (for the 905ers) and the TTC streetcar (for city-dwellers). The team is increasingly becoming the stomping ground for the Leafs' future. The team plays lots of weekend matinee games in a recently refurbished building that is actually a great place to watch a hockey game. There is a way to make the Marlies the kind of success that will keep the slanderous charges of Leaf fans not loving hockey (we've had about at least 600 comments here every night during the Leafs-less playoffs) from arising. It's just up to the powers that be to decide that they want to give their staff the tools that they need to succeed.

Poll

Why don't you attend Marlies games?

Make-up of the roster

4 votes

Ticket prices

11 votes

Level of hockey

16 votes

Other things to do

30 votes

Other (please explain in the comments)

33 votes

94 votes | Poll has closed

We Run This Province

Chemmy — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 18:45:55 -0000

Final - 2.28.2009	1	2	3	OT	Total
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	0	1	1	4
Ottawa Senators	0	2	1	0	3

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Toronto just can't seem to stop getting points. Going 4-0-2 in their last six, this Leafs squad has to have Brian Burke tearing his hair out as he looks at his draft board. As PPP pointed out seven times last night, the Leafs have also gone 7-1-1 against the Senators in their last nine games.

Personally, I'm not that worried about the winning. This year's draft is deep with solid defensive prospects, which is where the Leafs really need to upgrade. According to the CBC last night, only the Leafs and Florida have ten players with more than ten goals. The Leafs also have more goals for than three of the Eastern Conference teams that are playoff bound right now, and four of the Western teams.

The Leafs need D. The Leafs need goaltending, and post trade deadline and draft day, this Leafs squad is going to be a lot younger. I feel like a broken record but don't be torn, enjoy this win. Rome wasn't rebuilt in a day.