SB Nation - Pavel Kubina

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Which Thrashers Are Playing Well at Even Strength?

The Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

Browse more photos »

The Thrashers have excelled at Even Strength so far this season. After the goaltenders, the biggest reason for improvement in ES situations are the two players acquired mid-summer. Nik Antropov has been the Thrashers best forward at ES and Pavel Kubina has been the best defenseman at ES. I've been critical of Don Waddell's free agent acquisitions in past summers but he hit a home run with these two guys. They were precisely what the team needed and as a consequence the Thrashers are much improved.

Forwards

The coaching staff might not like to use terms like "first line" or "third line" but the ES Time On Ice (TOI) paint a rather clear picture. The Russian speaking line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Afinogenov is clearly #1 in ice time. The next two lines are pretty even Kozlov-White-Little and Kane-Peverley-Armstrong. The 4th line (Boulton-Slater-Thorburn) with Marty Reasoner going back and forth between the 3rd and 4th lines.

Who is facing the toughest opposition? According the Gabe Desjardin's Quality of Competition measure (opponent's Relative Goal Differential at Even Strength) Todd White, Bryan Little Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk face the best players, while Boulton, Slater and Thorburn are sheltered.

Who is most effective? At even strength the name of the game is winning on the scoreboard. I have ranked all the players below according to their Goal Differential (GFA-GAA) per 60 minutes of ES TOI. Antropov is your clear leader. Why have the Thrashers gotten so much better this season? Well look at that list of players and you can see that 4 of the 5 most effective ES players were not on this roster one year ago today. Peverley was added in last January an Antropov via Free Agency, Kane at the NHL Draft and Afinogenov was a late NHL Camp tryout. Every single one of those moves has worked out very well!

Another measure to compare players is Desjardins' "Rating" column which compares each players net Goal Differential when that player is on the ice to when that player is off the ice. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk averages a +.59 Goal Differential when he is on the ice, but his Rating is just .01 which means that the Atlanta Thrashers post a+.58 when Kovalchuk is off the ice at ES. On the other hand, the Thrashers do much better when Nik Antropov is on the ice than when he is off it. In fact, when Antropov is off the ice the Thrashers have been out-scored at ES this season--he is only forward for whom that is true.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
NIK ANTROPOV	26	14.6	0.00	29	16	4.59	2.53	2.06	2.28
MARTY REASONER	26	9.2	0.00	14	7	3.52	1.76	1.76	1.57
EVANDER KANE	26	12.1	0.00	20	13	3.81	2.48	1.33	1.13
RICH PEVERLEY	26	12.9	-0.03	20	14	3.57	2.50	1.07	0.79
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	26	14.4	0.01	24	18	3.85	2.89	0.96	0.67
BRYAN LITTLE	24	12.6	0.09	16	12	3.17	2.38	0.79	0.64
ILYA KOVALCHUK	20	15.1	0.07	17	14	3.37	2.77	0.59	0.01
COLBY ARMSTRONG	25	11.6	-0.02	12	12	2.48	2.48	0.00	-0.49
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	26	11.8	0.07	12	14	2.34	2.73	-0.39	-1.21
ERIC BOULTON	24	6.2	-0.09	4	6	1.62	2.43	-0.81	-1.31
CHRIS THORBURN	26	6.7	-0.06	4	6	1.38	2.07	-0.69	-1.40
TODD WHITE	26	12.0	0.13	10	15	1.93	2.89	-0.96	-1.99
JIM SLATER	11	8.4	-0.07	1	5	0.65	3.26	-2.61	-4.94

On defense Pavel Kubina has played like an All-Star minus big gaudy point totals.The Toronto Maple Leafs dumped Kubina's salary so they could sign Mike Komisarek, but I suspect that Kubina is having a better season than Komisarek is. When Kubina is on the ice in Even Skater situations the Thrashers have outscored the opposition by an astonishing 29-11 margin. Wow! When Pavel Kubina is off the ice at Even Strength the Thrashers have been outscored this season--Kubina is the only defenseman for which that statement is true. According to Desjardins Quality of Competition rating, Kubina is also facing the toughest opponents every night (with Ron Hainsey right behind him). Kubina makes some big coin ($5 million) and if he departs as a UFA this summer he will leave a giant hole.

Despite putting up some big goal totals this season Zach Bogosian has been exploited at times during even strength play. His 3.25 GAA is not very good. All three of the 3rd pairing defensemen appear to drag down the team's offense when they are on the ice (compare at their GFA to the top four guys).

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
PAVEL KUBINA	25	16.8	0.08	29	11	4.14	1.57	2.57	3.15
TOBIAS ENSTROM	26	16.3	0.02	26	17	3.69	2.41	1.28	1.20
ANSSI SALMELA	15	13.0	-0.04	7	6	2.15	1.85	0.31	-0.17
RON HAINSEY	24	15.6	0.07	19	18	3.04	2.88	0.16	-0.34
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	24	13.5	-0.04	11	13	2.04	2.41	-0.37	-1.14
ZACH BOGOSIAN	26	17.8	0.04	21	25	2.73	3.25	-0.52	-1.67
MARK POPOVIC	16	11.7	-0.09	7	10	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Conclusion

The Thrashers are playing better because they are better. The new players that were added this summer (Kubina, Antropov, Afinogenov, Kane) all rank near the top at their respective positions.

Analysis: Who is Playing Well on the Thrashers Power Play

The Falconer — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:15 -0000

One season ago the Thrashers power play finished the season 11th with 69 PP Goals scored. This year the Power Play is ranked 6th and on pace to score 67 Goals (looks like PP% rate is down in the NHL after rising sharply last season).

FORWARDS

Ilya Kovlachuk always plays the point position on the PP so I have put him in the chart with the other defenseman below. There are really six forwards who have seen substantial time on the PP this season. All six are averaging around 3 minutes per game of 5 on 4 time. The Peverly-Antropov-Afinogenov group has been far more effective than the Kozlov-White-Little group so far.

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G DIFF	MINUTES
NIK ANTROPOV	C	25	2.79	13	0	11.19	0.00	11.19	70
RICH PEVERLEY	C	25	2.92	13	0	10.69	0.00	10.69	73
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	RW	25	3.05	12	0	9.44	0.00	9.44	76
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	LW	25	3.08	8	1	6.22	0.78	5.45	77
BRYAN LITTLE	RW	23	3.04	7	1	6.00	0.86	5.15	70
TODD WHITE	C	25	3.19	7	1	5.26	0.75	4.51	80

DEFENSE

On the blueline the allocation of ice time is much more uneven. Kovalchuk and Enstrom average nearly 5 minutes per game and Kubina, Bogosian and Hainsey get the leftover scraps basically. Kovalchuk has been on the ice for 14 PP GF which leads the team, but he also gets a load of ice time too.

Who should play with Kovalchuk at the point? So far it has been Enstrom, but Kubina has been the most effective point man (in limited action). The biggest problem with Enstrom is that he is extremely reluctant to shoot--everyone knows he is just trying to feed the puck to Kovalchuk. If I were coach I'd give Kubina and Bogosian more minutes on the PP and tell them to take the open shot. If the other PKers go into man coverage on Kovalchuk, then it becomes a 4 on 3 and the Thrashers must become better at exploiting the open man--whomever is open must be willing to shoot the puck.

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G DIFF	MINUTES
PAVEL KUBINA	D	24	1.73	7	1	10.12	1.45	8.67	42
ILYA KOVALCHUK	LW	19	4.89	14	1	9.04	0.65	8.40	93
ZACH BOGOSIAN	D	25	1.68	5	0	7.16	0.00	7.16	42
TOBIAS ENSTROM	D	25	4.60	12	0	6.25	0.00	6.25	115
RON HAINSEY	D	23	0.87	2	0	5.99	0.00	5.99	20

CONCLUSION

The Thrashers really need to get Kozlov and Little going in the 2nd half to keep that PP rolling. Some tweaks on the blueline such as more ice time for shooters like Kubina and Bogosian might help as well.

Analysis: Who is Playing Well on the Thrashers PK Unit

The Falconer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:15 -0000

One year ago the Thrashers PK allowed 88 goals against. So far this year, the team has allowed just 17 on 107 times being shorthanded.

The data in the table below in ONLY for PK during 5 on 4 disadvantage (excludes 5 on 3 situations). Among the forwards, the coaching staff is leaning most heavily on Reasoner, Peverley, Thorburn and Armstrong. This represents a major change from last season when the top 4 PK forwards included Reasoner, Perrin, Slater and C. Stuart.

Who has been most effective so far? When looking at Even Strength situations I put a lot of weight on Goal Differential, but on the PK scoring is an afterthought (and often involves a lot of luck), so I put greater emphasis on the PK GAA (Goals Against Average). Bottom line, the job of the PK unit is to prevent a goal against.

In the table below I have ranked all the Thrasher forwards who average at least half a minute on the PK in the order of their PK GAA. Rich Peverley has not only lead the Thrashers in points on offense but he currently sports the lowest PK GAA of any forward who plays the PK on a regular basis. Right behind Peverley is Chris Thorburn who has excelled so far this season after being given a bigger role in killing penalties. In the middle of the pack we find surprising rookie Evander Kane, Colby Armstrong and veteran PKer Marty Reasoner. Trailing behind in effectiveness are Jim Slater and Todd White who have each seen their PK minutes decline this year.

Forward	POS	GP	TOI/60	GFON	GAON	GFA	GAA	G Diff
RICH PEVERLEY	C	25	2.47	2	3	1.94	2.91	-0.97
CHRIS THORBURN	C	25	2.36	2	3	2.03	3.05	-1.02
EVANDER KANE	C	25	1.63	1	3	1.48	4.43	-2.95
COLBY ARMSTRONG	RW	24	2.23	1	5	1.12	5.61	-4.49
MARTY REASONER	C	25	3.35	2	10	1.43	7.16	-5.73
JIM SLATER	C	11	1.29	0	2	0.00	8.43	-8.43
TODD WHITE	C	25	0.48	0	2	0.00	10.00	-10.00

On defense, the guys receiving the heaviest PK burden are Ron Hainsey, Pavel Kubina and Zach Bogosian in that order. Last season Tobias Enstrom was the Thashers leading PK defenseman but this year he has seen his PK TOI cut back significantly with the arrival of Kubina and Schubert and with more minutes going to Bogosian.

In his reduced role Enstrom has been nothing short of perfect. In fact, so far the this season when killing 5 on 4 penalties the Thrashers have actually outscored the opposition 1-0 when Enstrom is on the ice--that's rather amazing.

Among the non-Enstrom defenseman new comer Pavel Kubina has the best PK GAA with Popovic right behind him. Bogosian and Hainsey bring up the rear. It is worth noting that the spread among the defensemen is much smaller than it is among the forwards, which suggests that all of the defenseman have been reasonably effective on the PK so far this year.

Defense	POS	GP	TOI/60	GFON	GAON	GFA	GAA	G Diff
TOBIAS ENSTROM	D	25	0.86	1	0	2.78	0.00	2.78
PAVEL KUBINA	D	24	3.02	1	5	0.83	4.14	-3.32
MARK POPOVIC	D	16	1.72	2	2	4.35	4.35	0.00
ZACH BOGOSIAN	D	25	2.87	3	6	2.51	5.02	-2.51
RON HAINSEY	D	23	3.87	0	9	0.00	6.07	-6.07
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	D	23	2.13	1	6	1.22	7.33	-6.11

Thrashers at Leafs

Chemmy — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:13:42 -0000

Puck Drop: 7:00PM ET Sportsnet Ontario

Leafs' coach Ron Wilson says he hopes former players Nik Antropov and Pavel Kubina won't be feted with a ceremony tonight. - Jonas Siegel

Tonight marks the return of a player who wasn't fully appreciated in Toronto even after he left. He had issues with his knee while he was here and was a solid player but didn't fit Burke's idea for a rebuilding team and was shipped out. That player of course is Pavel Kubina.

I think we were all expecting to replace Kubina's offense with Francois Beauchemin's. Obviously that hasn't happened. What's odd is that Happy Trails dropped a 102.2mph bomb in the hardest shot competition, capping what must have been bizarro weekend as Rickard "They Glue A Stick To My Hands Because I Can't Be Trusted Not To Drop It" Wallin won the shot accuracy contest.

Other promising ex-Leafs with knee injuries playing for the Thrashers include Nik Antropov, who has only 2 goals this year (yikes) but has 21 assists to give him 23 points in 26 games. I don't think anyone here saw Antropov as a setup guy, but I'm assuming he plays with Kovalchuk and that should boost his assist total. Strange though, Antropov played very well down the stretch for the Rangers last year including scoring a bunch of beautiful top shelf goals from the faceoff circles, he'll probably find his game tonight knowing our luck.

Garnet Exelby back in against his former team. Jeff Finger scratched. Rickard Wallin in as well. - Jonas Siegel

Christian Hanson has been returned to the Marlies in what I hope is a planned move; bring the kids up to get a taste and then send them back down to work on problems. Hanson looked good aside from his first game up and I didn't see the Boston game (thank god), so he should understand what he needs to do.

The puzzling move here is Exelby for Finger. Burke needs to shit or get off the pot with Finger; he's a better defenseman than Exelby hands down but with a bigger cap hit. If we're not going to waive Finger we might as well use him rather than have his cap hit in the press box.

Gustavsson couldn’t pinpoint an exact return date—he’ll need the incision in his groin area to heal—but he said that this time around was definitely better than last.

"Feels like I have more power now after this procedure than after the last one," he said. - Eat. Sleep. Leafs.

Gustavsson will probably be out more than a week while the incision in his groin heals and Joey MacDonald got shelled in Boston which means in addition to Rickard "Useless" Wallin coming back into the lineup Vesa Toskala will be in net.

The Thrashers come in to tonight's game at 15-8-3, the Eastern Conference's #6 seed. I have no faith whatsoever in Toskala or Exelby and combined with the return of Kubina and Antropov as well as this being a weekday home game against a Southeast opponent tonight is going to be terrible.

Don't forget your SPG picks, and no you can't pick Antropov, check out Bird Watchers Anonymous for Thrashers coverage and go Leafs go!

December schedule action packed

James Mirtle — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:54:14 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

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He's back.

Nik Antropov is here in Toronto today with the Thrashers in town. Pavel Kubina, too. Pretty exciting. Big scrums, lots of questions, etc. Even Wyshynski came to town for this.

If you have something you want asked, shoot me a note on Twitter or email.

The Leafs schedule is nuts through December with 16 games, which keeps me busy. After getting schedule master Dirk Hoag to run the numbers, however, they're not the most over worked team this month:

	Team	2008-09	2009-10	Diff
1	MTL	13	17	4
2	OTT	13	17	4
3	CBJ	14	16	2
4	MIN	14	16	2
5	TOR	14	16	2
6	ANA	13	15	2
7	ATL	15	15	0
8	BUF	14	15	1
9	CHI	12	15	3
10	FLA	14	15	1
11	NJD	14	15	1
12	NSH	13	15	2
13	NYI	14	15	1
14	PHI	14	15	1
15	PHX	15	15	0
16	STL	15	15	0
17	TBL	13	15	2
18	VAN	14	15	1
19	CGY	13	14	1
20	COL	14	14	0
21	DET	13	14	1
22	EDM	13	14	1
23	LAK	15	14	-1
24	BOS	13	13	0
25	CAR	13	13	0
26	DAL	13	13	0
27	NYR	12	13	1
28	PIT	14	13	-1
29	SJS	13	13	0
30	WSH	14	13	-1
	Tot	408	438	30
	Avg	13.6	14.6	1

Eighteen per cent of the NHL season will take place in December, so it's a big month. For some teams more than others.

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

The NHL's top defensive defencemen

James Mirtle — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 02:56:24 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

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As with the top defensive forwards list, this is the same Rod Langway Award business I've been putting out for a couple years now. It ranks players defensively based on (a) quality of competition at even strength, (b) goals against per minute played at even strength and (c) goals against per minute played on the penalty kill.

Players also have to have played at least 15 games and fill a significant role on their team's shorthanded unit. Credit, as always, to Behind The Net for the data.

Here are the top 25 a little past the quarter-way mark:

	NAME	TEAM	GP	QCMP	EVGA/60	SHGA/60
1	CHRIS PRONGER	PHI	24	0.12	1.38	4.41
2	DUNCAN KEITH	CHI	25	0.14	1.59	4.12
3	JAY BOUWMEESTER	CGY	26	0.08	1.39	4.51
4	ROMAN POLAK	STL	24	0.12	1.71	5.06
5	PAVEL KUBINA	ATL	23	0.06	1.71	3.38
6	MIKE MOTTAU	N.J	23	0.09	1.69	5.00
7	COLIN WHITE	N.J	24	0.11	2.06	4.63
8	JEFF SCHULTZ	WSH	20	0.09	1.38	6.08
9	NICK LIDSTROM	DET	26	0.08	2.15	3.83
10	MIKE WEAVER	STL	23	0.03	1.12	4.38
11	BRENT SEABROOK	CHI	23	0.17	1.50	6.84
12	M-E VLASIC	S.J	28	0.13	2.51	3.01
13	ROB BLAKE	S.J	17	0.18	2.58	3.85
14	ED JOVANOVSKI	PHX	18	0.08	2.35	1.24
15	MILAN JURCINA	WSH	20	0.16	2.26	5.60
16	NIKLAS HJALMARSSON	CHI	25	0.04	1.56	5.02
17	ANDY SUTTON	NYI	26	0.08	1.60	6.26
18	ZBYNEK MICHALEK	PHX	17	0.07	1.92	5.53
19	ZDENO CHARA	BOS	26	0.23	2.65	4.97
20	RADEK MARTINEK	NYI	16	0.10	1.81	6.47
21	DARRYL SYDOR	STL	18	0.05	1.19	6.75
22	CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF	VAN	26	-0.06	1.31	3.52
23	GREG ZANON	MIN	24	0.06	1.81	6.31
24	JOSH GORGES	MTL	26	-0.05	1.39	3.91
25	WILLIE MITCHELL	VAN	26	0.15	1.85	7.85

Pronger, Keith, Bouwmeester — sure, those are all names synonymous with tough defence. But how about Mike Weaver? Or Pavel Kubina?

It's early, but all of these players are playing significant defensive roles on their teams. Some benefit from having a great goaltender behind them, but there are a lot of blueliners here from weak teams, too.

Someone like Weaver, who has a really low profile, is considered by his coach a pretty big part of shutting down top opposition:

"I'd say Weaver is one of our best puck-movers," Murray said. "He's not a finisher, but in terms of moving the puck out of our zone and putting it in the hands of our forwards, he's pretty good. He's not a guy that contributes on the offensive side. But what is an amazing stat, he's plus-5. And for quite a while there, he and Roman (Polak) were playing the top line on every team. He's a plus-5."

Those are the sorts of guys I'm trying to highlight here, and for the most part, I think this works — even if there are some surprises. The real test is which guys can maintain play like this all season.

Thrashers Beat The Streak, Down Flyers 1-0

aaron b — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 05:19:35 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

12 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers forward Rich Peverley, left, scores a goal against Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Brian Boucher (33) during the second period, of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009, at Philips Arena, in Atlanta. The goal became the game-winning goal as the Thrashers went on to win 1-0. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

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One day, I'll learn to stop making predictions. My call of a 5-3 Thrashers win could not have been more off--but at least give me this--would you have guessed a 1-0 Thrashers win?

That's right, never in a million years.

Hit the jump for some quick hit thoughts.

- Concerning Colby Armstrong's hit on Philly's own Chosen One, James van Riemsdyk: Colby did what he did and got what he deserved. JVR also learned a very valuable lesson: if you want to play stickey-poke before the face off with someone who has been known to hit very hard, keep your head up afterwards, ya dig? He's young, he'll learn.

- Rich Peverley has 5 game-winning goals. I bet you didn't think $475K could get you five NHL wins, did you?

(No, this particular meme will not be going away anytime soon. Live with it.)

- Eric Boulton & Riley Cote fought. Rather, Riley Cote hung on while Eric Boulton beat him about the head. No surprises.

- If you run in to Pavel Kubina out and about somewhere, make sure he never has to pay for his own drinks again. He's been the top-pairing defenseman the Thrashers have been looking for since... 2000, maybe? Zach Bogosian and Toby Enstrom can take care of the offense, I'm more than pleased with Kubina stationed beside our net.

- Johan Hedberg looked every bit the confident veteran leader in net as he earned his first shutout of the year. The Thrashers have a young stud netminder who is improving with every game, and a rock-solid "backup" (as Moose is playing like a backup in name only) to help said young stud along. Is anyone else thinking this is how it should've been in goal for Atlanta? Only, you know, three or four years ago?

- Is this a bigger win than last night's comeback against the Hurricanes? Absolutely. Last night proved that the team is capable of stealing control of a game not going their way. Tonight proved that they're capable of controling a game from start to finish. The Flyers played hard, the officiating was as clean as it gets; the Thrashers just played better. Let that sink in.

Tell me what I missed in the comments.

Thrashers 2010 Olympics Hockey Preview

The Falconer — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:10:45 -0000

The Olympic Games do not get underway until the last two weeks of February, but SB Nation is counting off each potential Olympian playing in the NHL over the next two weeks. Here's a look at which Atlanta Thrashers may be headed to Vancouver in the spring.

Pack Your Bags

Ilya Kovalchuk is a first line player for the Russian Team. The only thing keeping him from Vancouver would be an injury. He won gold at the most recent World Championships and would certainly love to repeat that performance with fellow countrymen Ovechkin and Malkin.

Christoph Schubert will attend given the paucity of German born NHL players. To be honest I don't know anything about German players playing in Europe, but looking at their list of Olympic candidates, I would expect him to be in their top four defenseman.

Nearly A Lock

Ondrej Pavelec is unlikely to displace Vokoun as the starter for Czech team, but I would consider him the favorite to win the #2 job.

Pavel Kubina is another near lock to represent his team in the spring. He may have lost a step but he still plays big minutes and key situations in the NHL against elite level opponents.

Fairly Safe Bet

Tobias Enstrom should qualify as one of the top 7 defensemen from Sweden. I would rank Lidstrom, Kronwall and Ohlund ahead of him, but Enstrom should be the next four along with Victor Hedman, Oduja, and Tallinder. The tiny defender has proven very adept at playing in small North America rinks against large NHL players.

Ilya Nikulin--OK he's not a Thrasher at the moment, but the team did draft him way back in 2000. Each summer Thrashers fans are treated to rumors he might sign and come to Atlanta. But Nikulin is a big star in the KHL (a starter in their All-Star Game) and has represented his nation at the World Championships. Thrasher fans will get a look at what they have been missing all these years.

In A Battle

Ron Hainsey was invited to the American Olympic Camp, but when I look at the roster I would rank 4 players as a lock at defense (Rafalski, Martin, Suter, Komisarek) and a bunch of guys fighting for the last three slots: Whitney, Gleason, Hainsey, E. Johnson, Goligoski, and Gilbert. Hainsey is probably in the mix, but personally I'd take American Zach Bogosian over Hainsey.

Work To Do

Maxim Afinogenov was on Team Russia's list of potential players, but they have a very deep pool to chose from. Throw in traditional Russian hockey politics (half the team is supposed to come from the KHL) and I have a hard time seeing Max make the final cut.

Rich Peverley is in the top 20 in scoring in the NHL and will likely get almost no consideration for Team Canada. That's the nature of the beast when you're from north of the border. Many good hockey Canadian hockey players have no chance.

Moving Up

Zach Bogosian has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He's leading all NHL defensemen in goals and can also supply a good hit here and there. Thrashers GM Don Waddell is part of the selection committee and makes reports on prospective Team USA members. I would expect that Bogosian's name will be discussed at length.

Moving Down

Boris Valabik has just now returned to the ice after an injury. He did not look all that sharp in Training Camp.

Kari Lehtonen has not even begun to practice after two back surgeries. Not going to happen this year.