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Pick 'Em: Best Capitals Draft Pick of the Decade

David M. Getz — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:00:27 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

Readers who venture outside the friendly internet confines of the the Rink may have noticed that, in anticipation of ~~the end of the decade~~ 2010, Puck Daddy has been compiling the best and worst of the last decade, including the ten biggest goon moments, the best and worst contracts, and NHL's best and worst decisions. Yesterday saw Ryan Lambert of The Two Line Pass take a look at the five best and five worst draft picks of the last ten years.

Being a Capitals blog we figured it would make for some interesting discussion to ~~pilfer the idea~~ alter their framework every so slightly to suit our favorite team and take a look at some of studs and duds of recent Washington draft classes. To make things a little more interesting, we decided to eliminate lottery picks, which in essence means no Alex Ovechkin, no Nicklas Backstrom, and no Karl Alzner.

To start things off, let's take a look at the five worst:

5. Jakub Cutta (Defense, 2nd round, 61st overall, 2000)

Cutta was billed as a guy with an ideal frame, but a project nonetheless. At the time of his draft people knew there were questions about his skating, his ability to move the puck out of the zone at the next level, and whether he would ever use his 6'3'', 214 frame as effectively as possible. The problem was, nothing ever really panned out. The skating never became NHL caliber, there wasn't any offense to speak of as a pro, and while Cutta laid out a big hit every once in a while, he was far from an intimidating physical force. All told Cutta saw action in eight games over the course of three seasons with the Caps, earning himself a minus-5 rating. By 2006 Cutta would be back in his native Czech Republic, and he's been splitting time between his homeland and Russia for the past few years. It's not always fair to look back and evaluate a pick using 20/20 hindsight, but the fact that Paul Martin was taken with the 62nd pick certainly doesn't make this one any easier to swallow.

4. Josh Godfrey (Defense, 2nd round, 34th overall, 2007)

Yeah, it's still early, but thing don't look very good for Godfrey, who's now in his second season with the ECHL's South Carolina Stingrays. Part of us wants to say that the blue line is stacked at Hershey, that Godfrey's still young, and that he was drafted as an offensive defenseman who would have to spend a lot of time working out the kinks in his own end before he had a chance at the NHL. Another part of us says that guys who spend more than one season in the ECHL don't usually do much at the NHL level - and that's not enough for someone picked 34th overall. The fact that, other than Kings prospects Wayne Simmonds and Oscar Moller, no one picked after Godfrey has seen much NHL playing time helps keep him from rising on this list - for now.

3. Keith Seabrook (Defense, 2nd round, 52nd overall, 2006)

Also an offensive defenseman, the Capitals were hoping Seabrook would one day be a powerplay quarterback, or at least an offensive threat from the blue line. However, Seabrook underwhelmed offensively, first by scoring 13 points (two goals) in 37 games at the University of Denver and then by scoring 17 (four goals) in 59 games with the WHL's Calgary Hitmen - all while failing to make marked progress in his own end. In 2008-09 Seabrook finally became the offensive force people thought he was capable of being by registering 55 points (fifteen goals) for the Hitmen, but questions persisted about whether it was because he was growing in to his talent or because he was an overage player. Currently in the Calgary Flames organization, Seabrook still has a chance to become an NHL player, but never came close to getting a contract, let alone a game, with the Caps.

2. Joe Finley (Defense, 1st round, 27th overall, 2005)

The Caps would eventually sign Finley in the summer of 2009, but his future seems to be up in the air. After playing as a forward in camp, Finley's back on the blue line with South Carolina this season. If Finley ever makes it to the NHL, it's almost certainly going to be in a limited role as an enforcer...and you don't aim to draft a part-time enforcer in the first round. 36 of the first 45 players taken in the 2005 draft have played in the NHL, and has four of the five and seven of the ten taken after Finley. The issue at this point wasn't the talent pool. It was the selection.

1. Sasha Pokulok (Defense, 1st round, 14th overall, 2005)

How could it be anyone else? There's no way the Caps should have been picking 14th in 2005, but they sure didn't do themselves any favors in picking Pokulok. Billed as a physical specimen with skating ability and offensive upside, Pokulok was beset by concussion problems each of his three years in the Capitals organization. In the end, Pokulok wasn't able to stick in Hershey, let alone Washington, earning himself the dubious (and unfortunate) title of "Worst Capitals Pick of the Decade".

Honorable Mentions: Steve Eminger, Ted Ruth, Maxime Daigneault, Boyd Gordon

Now that that's over, let's take a look at the five best:

5. John Carlson (Defense, 1st round, 27th overall, 2008)

He's played just three games at the NHL level thus far, but is there any reason to think Carlson won't be a very, very good NHL defender? With size, skill, and smarts he's bested every challenge thrown his way since the draft, finishing second in the OHL in scoring among defensemen and second among rookies last year, and registering 18 points in 24 games for the Bears this year. Carlson may very well be a top pairing guy in the very near future, and in a league that prizes two way defensemen as highly as the NHL does that's a heck of a return on the 27th pick.

4. Johnny Oduya (Defense, 7th round, 221st overall, 2001)

Hey, we said these guys were going to be Capitals draftees, we never said anything about whether the team signed him. With only one point and an minus-1 rating, Oduya's slumping this year but he's nonetheless a legitimate top-four guy defenseman in the NHL, something that can only be said for a handful of the 200 players taken before him.

3. Alexander Semin (Left Wing/Right Wing, 13th overall, 2002)

At September's Capitals Convention members of the team's scouting staff were insistent they'd been lucky with Semin, who has grown three inches and added thirty-five pounds since the time he was drafted. Even if there was some luck involved, Semin is a elite offensive player who may just be the most naturally talented guy in the NHL. Picking thirteenth overall you expect to get an NHL caliber player - but getting a guy with Semin's ability in that spot is a steal. He might not have the career top 2002 pick Rich Nash will, be there's no doubt Semin was the most talented player available at the this spot - and your GM picking that guy is all you can ask for.

2. Semyon Varlamov (Goalie, 23rd overall, 2006)

We'd be lying if we said there wasn't a part of us that was still scared Semyon Varlamov was going to burn out (insert obligatory Jim Carey reference here), but what he's doing at his age, well, that just doesn't happen very often. The Capitals get credit here for being willing to use their first round pick to take a netminder in what was regarded as a weak draft between the pipes. The next time you want to criticize George McPhee for going off the board, remember that sometimes the risk pays off.

1. Mike Green (Defense, 29th overall, 2004)

Twenty-ninth overall isn't exactly scraping the bottom of the barrel, but no one expected this. Fifty-one goals and 159 points in his last 180 games, a historically great season, a Norris Trophy nomination at age 23, and comparisons to Paul Coffey would make Green a great pick just about anywhere, but at the end of the first round it's practically criminal. Thank the Lord the Stars saw something they liked in Mark Fistric.

Honorable Mentions: Mathieu Perreault, Oskar Osala, Braden Holtby

While the issue of the worst draft pick seems pretty cut-and-dry (seriously, if anyone thinks it's someone other than Pokulok, we'd love to hear why), the best pick is up for debate - and we want to know what you think. Vote in the poll, and let us know who you picked in the comments section.

Poll

So, who's the best Capitals draft pick of the decade?

2010 Winter Olympics: Capitals Hopefuls

J.P. — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:00:15 -0000

via photobucket.com

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With the Olympics barely two months away, let's take a look at which Caps can expect - and hope - to hear their names called when rosters are announced later this month:

Pack Your Bags

Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin (Russia)

Ovechkin has represented Russia in at least 80 international matches (including eight in the 2006 Turin Olympics), and Semin brings another 50 games of international experience to the table. The two were instrumental in Russia's gold medal win on Canadian soil in the 2008 IIHF World Championship, both finishing in the top six in the tourney in scoring. The only thing that can keep the pair from hunting for a loonie to dig out of the ice in Vancouver is injury.

Nicklas Backstrom (Sweden)

Only three Swedish NHLers have more points than Backstrom since the Caps pivot made his NHL debut, and he'll play an important role in Sweden's bid to repeat as Olympic champs.

Fairly Safe Bets

Milan Jurcina (Slovakia)

Jurcina's size and durability should make him an Olympian for the second time.

On the Bubble

Mike Green (Canada)

It doesn't get much more bubblicious than Green, whose defensive lapses may prove too much for Steve Yzerman to handle in a single elimination tournament, especially given other, safer puck-moving Canadian blueliners. Is a high-risk/high-reward pick a guy the Canadians are willing to put out on the ice before the home crowd?

Tomas Fleischmann (Czech Republic)

Flash was looking a lot better a few weeks ago and may be a bit one-dimensional for this type of team, but he's still got a shot at making the Czech squad - he's actually eighth among Czech NHL goal scorers over the past two seasons. Ales Hemsky's injury couldn't have hurt his chances either.

Semyon Varlamov (Russia)

Vladislav Tretiak said recently that "It will be difficult for Varlamov because Bryzgalov is playing unbelievable, Nabokov is playing unbelievable, it's a big competition. I told him today he has a chance, because three goalies will come to the Olympic Games." Tretiak also said that he expects his team to be a 50/50 mix of NHLers and KHLers. But if Russia was smart and looking ahead to Sochi in 2014 (as we know they are), they'd bring Varly along for the ride.

Long Shots

Michael Nylander (Sweden)

If Nylander were over in Russia right now lighting up the KHL, he'd have a chance to represent his country in Vancouver in February. Add one more regret to his 2009-10 season.

Oskar Osala (Finland)

Picking Osala would be a surprise pick, to be sure, but as far as long-term investments go, this could be one worth making for the Finns.

November Prospects Update: Forwards

David M. Getz — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:05:03 -0000

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Yesterday we took a look at the Capitals' goaltending and defense prospects, and today we turn our eyes to the organization's young forwards, a group whose strength is based more in the quantity than quality. That's not to say the Caps don't have some pretty skilled youngsters in the forward ranks, because they do. But while the blue line has guys like Karl Alzner and John Carlson and the future in goal looks to be either Semyon Varlamov or Michal Neuvirth, the forward corps lacks guys with high ceilings at the NHL level and doesn't have any blue-chips. Despite the uncertainty, there's not necessarily reason to be worried because while it's doubtful all of the Capitals forwards prospects (even the good ones) will become successful NHL players, it's also unlikely that at least a couple won't.

The prospects and their early season numbers, after the jump.

Jay Beagle (Center/Right Wing) - Much like last season, Beagle's plugging along and contributing in a checking role for the Bears. Beagle's NHL potential probably tops out at about a 13th or 14th forward, and the Caps won't be rushing him to the NHL any time soon, but he could get in a couple games if injuries necessitate a recall.

Jay Beagle	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	24	12	1	3	4	-4	6	0	0	-	18	5.6

Francois Bouchard (Left Wing/Right Wing) - After a solid first professional season in 2008-09 (35 points; 15 goals in 64 games with the Bears), Bouchard's running at a point-per-game pace so far this season thanks to a late-October surge. Even more impressive is the fact that only one of Bouchard's point (an assist) has come with the man advantage. On the flip side, a large part of his production is due to his 27.8% shooting percentage - don't expect that to last.

Francois Bouchard	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	21	11	5	6	11	4	4	0	0	-	18	27.8

Trevor Bruess (Left Wing) - He's getting playing time in Hershey, but aside of a fight with Binghamton's Paul Baier he hasn't done a whole lot.

Trevor Bruess	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	23	8	0	0	0	1	11	-	-	-	8	0.0

Joel Broda (Center) - Obviously you can only discern so much about a guy who's still playing in juniors, but it's hard not to be encouraged by Broda's numbers. In 2008 the Capitals picked him in the fifth round, after a season where he recorded 31 goals and 53 points in 73 games with the Tri-City Americans and Moose Jaw Warriors; in the 2008-09 season Broda recorded 53 goals and 87 points in 67 games while splitting time between Moose Jaw and the Calgary Hitmen. While he's not scoring at the prodigious pace he was last season, Broda's again producing at better than a point-per-game.

Joel Broda	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Calgary	WHL	19	16	8	9	17	2	23	5	0	-	-	-

Greg Burke (Left Wing) - Having his 2008-09 season cut short by a shoulder injury and playing in just eight games for the USHL's Cedar Rapids RoughRiders, doesn't seem to have slowed Burke down too much: he's played in all seven of the University of New Hampshire's games this season.

Greg Burke	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
University of New Hampshire	HE	19	7	0	2	2	-2	2	0	0	0	9	0.0

Stefan Della Rovere (Left Wing) - Everybody's favorite NHL-pest-to-be is picking up right where he left off last season, dropping the gloves, adding some offense, and captaining one of the OHL's best teams - and that's all good news for a Capitals team that needs some more sandpaper in the lineup. Della Rovere's also been named to the OHL's Subway Super Series team, Canada's most prestigious sandwich-themed junior hockey tournament.

Stefan Della Rovere	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Barrie	OHL	19	16	5	7	12	5	31	2	0	-	-	-

Phil DeSimone (Center) - An offensive force when he was drafted out of the USHL, DeSimone is still looking to fulfill his potential at the collegiate level, although he did increase his point total from 13 to 18 and his goal total from three to seven from his freshman to sophomore year.

Phil DeSimone	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
University of New Hampshire	HE	22	7	0	2	2	-6	10	0	0	0	8	0.0

Cody Eakin (Center) - Eakin's not a big guy (though he's a pretty tough one), but he is a terrific skater with good offensive instincts who also receives accolades for his two way play. Eakin's progressed nicely for the Swift Current Broncos in his WHL career, going from 17 points in 2007-08, to 48 points in 2008-09, to 23 through his team's first nineteen games of this season. Those might not sound like world-beating numbers, but consider this: 18 of Eakin's 2009-10 points are goals, a total that has him tied for the WHL lead. It's also telling that the Capitals have already inked Eakin to a professional contract, and there's a good chance he'll get a game or two in Hershey at the end of this season.

Cody Eakin	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Swift Current	WHL	18	19	18	5	23	-1	27	9	3	-	-	-

Joe Finley (Left Wing/Defense) - He's been playing defense in South Carolina (who list him as a defenseman), but the Capitals still list him as a forward, so we will too. At 22, Finley's a bit old for someone with NHL hopes to be plying his trade in the East Coast League, especially given that the experiment with moving him to wing appears to be on the back burner.

Joe Finley	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
South Carolina	ECHL	22	7	1	1	2	3	20	0	0	-	7	14.3

Andrew Gordon (Right Wing) - just two years ago the Capitals, unhappy with Gordon's performance in the AHL, briefly demoted him to South Carolina. Last year Gordon became an important piece of Hershey's Calder Cup team and got in a game in with the big club. This year Gordon's ascent has continued: he's averaging over a point a game, sports a plus-5 rating, and has only taken one penalty: a fight against Brian Lee. Gordon's probably never going to be a top six forward at the NHL level, but we'd sure like to see what he could do on a Caps energy line - the sooner, the better.

Andrew Gordon	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	23	12	7	9	16	5	5	5	0	-	36	19.4

Anton Gustafsson (Center) - The Capitals couldn't find room for him to get playing time in Hershey and it didn't look like he'd be getting playing time in Sweden's highest league either, and a a result, the Caps wound up lending Gustafsson to Borås HC, a team in Sweden's second division. Gus is getting playing time there, and has picked up four assists and nine shots in four games, although is winning only 47% of his faceoffs.

Anton Gustafsson	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Borås HC	Allsvenskan	19	4	0	4	4	0	2	0	0	0	9	0.0

Jake Hauswirth (Center/Right Wing) - one of the biggest surprises of 2008's prospects camp earned himself a contract this past summer. His transition to the pro game is going well and, although a call-up to the Capitals is in no way in the near future, Hauswirth could work his way up the ladder to Hershey later this season or in 2010-11.

Jake Hauswirth	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
South Carolina	ECHL	21	7	1	3	4	2	0	0	0	-	6	16.7

Dmitri Kugryshev (Left Wing ) - In large part thanks to a shooting percentage that's only half of what it was last year, Kugryshev isn't scoring at the same rate he did in 2008-09, when he was Qubec's leading rookie scorer, and a 34 goal, 74 points campaign earned him the QMJHL Rookie of the Year award. That doesn't mean he's not putting up points, though, and the goals should come in time.

Dmitri Kugryshev	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Quebec	QMJHL	19	18	4	13	17	5	18	0	0	1	52	7.7

Marcus Johansson (Center/Left Wing) - this past summer's first round draft pick is playing for Farjestads, currently one of Sweden's best teams. Even better, he's leading the team in goals and scoring (which isn't too much of a surprise considering some of the moves he has), though a lot of that has to do with an undoubtedly temporarily high shooting percentage. He's playing center right now, but there's been talk that Johansson might move the wing when he comes to North American, something his -1 rating and 40% faceoff win rate are advocating.

Marcus Johansson	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Farjestads	SEL	19	10	6	4	10	-1	10	2	0	1	20	30.0

Oskar Osala (Left Wing)- It took him until the seventh game of the season to record his first point, but since then Osala's come on strong, with five points in his last six games. You can never have too many big bodies up front (Osala goes 6'4'', 220) who can contribute on the score sheet, so here's hoping Osala keeps piling up the points and earns himself another trip to D.C..

Oskar Osala	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	21	12	3	2	5	-3	15	0	0	-	39	7.7

Mathieu Perreault (Center) - Like Osala, he started off slow (no point in his first five games for Hershey), before coming on strong. Unlike Osala, Perreault's size (allegedly 5'10'', 174) will always be a concern. But if he plays with smarts, skill, and determination he did on Wednesday, something tells me the Caps will be able to live with it.

Mathieu Perreault	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	21	12	1	3	4	-4	6	0	0	-	18	5.6
Washington	NHL	21	1	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0.0

Kyle Wilson (Center) - after two solid offensive seasons in Hershey (a total of 58 goals and 61 assists), but no chance to come up and show what he can do in the NHL we're starting to wonder if and when he's going to get that opportunity.

Kyle Wilson	Lge	Age	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	24	12	2	5	7	-1	2	1	0	-	30	6.7

2009-10 Washington Capitals Season Preview

David M. Getz — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:42:03 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

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2008-09 Season Recap: What's really amazing about the Capitals' 2008-09 season is just how much went wrong. The new starting goaltender was inconsistent, finished with mediocre-at-best numbers in the regular season, and was pulled in the first playoff game. The three big free agent signings who had been brought in a year earlier to fill key spots in the lineup failed to make the kind of impact they had in their first seasons in D.C. as Tom Poti missed thirty games, Viktor Kozlov saw his production slip, and Michael Nylander became such a non-entity that he was relegated to the press box for most of the playoffs and sat out the team's final playoff game in favor of Jay Beagle. A largely inexperienced defense corps saw six of its members miss ten games or more due to injury, necessitating 93 man-games from defensemen who started the season in Hershey of the AHL. The second line center position - considered a strength at the season's outset due to the presence of Nylander and Sergei Fedorov - remained unsettled for much of the season. The team's secondary scoring was non-existent at times, and they went through long periods (a.k.a. February and March) looking disinterested and uninspired.

And, despite all of that, they finished with 50 wins and 108 points.

That kind of regular season success is incredible under any set of circumstances, and the fact that the Capitals could perform at that level with so much going wrong should be encouraging to Capitals fans, even in the wake of last year's Eastern Conference Semis Game Seven faceplant that unceremoniously ended the season. It should also put the rest of the NHL very much on its toes.

Make the jump for roster changes, strengths, weaknesses, the team's depth chart, and our predictions.

Who's In:

Mike Knuble, RW - Knuble wasn't the biggest name available this summer, nor was he the flashiest player or the most skilled. But what he was (and is) is the perfect fit for the Capitals - he provides a lot of what the team needs (net presence, grit, size, leadership) where they need it (right wing). Having his 6'3'', 230 pound frame in front of the goal will make things more difficult for opposing goalies during Caps power plays and should give his linemates more space to work with at even strength. And having a knack for collecting and depositing loose pucks around the net won't hurt when he's playing on a line with a guy who has registered nearly a thousand shots on goal over the past two seasons.
Brendan Morrison, C - Morrison is another veteran who was brought in not to change the dynamic of the team or become a go-to guy, but rather to fill a hole and compliment the team's existing core - which is perfect because at this point in his career that's the role Morrison's best suited for. He should provide solid defense on the second line while still being able to keep up with the likes of Alexander Semin, Tomas Fleischmann, Brooks Laich, and Knuble offensively.

Who's Out:

Donald Brashear, LW - There's a part of most Caps fans that will miss watching Brashear drop the mitts for the good guys, but the bottom line on Brash is that his production is going down, his salary is going up, and he isn't getting any younger. Couple those facts with the ability to put a more skilled player from either a defensive (Quintin Laing) or offensive (Chris Bourque) standpoint, and there's no reason to be the slightest bit upset about that fact that Brash will be wearing someone else's red, white, and blue this season... so long as the "team toughness" we've been hearing so much about is, in fact, real.
Sergei Fedorov, C - It's sad to see a legend leave both the Capitals and the NHL, but the reality is that Fedorov, while productive when he played, had durability issues, took too many penalties, and sometimes looked like he had trouble keeping up with the Capitals style of play. They team (some players more than others, no doubt) will miss his versatility and his veteran presence, but we have to think the team will be better off moving forward with a healthy Morrison as the second-line center. We'll always have Game Seven, though, won't we?
Viktor Kozlov, RW - A quintessential example of a player brought in to "bridge the gap," Kozlov was good in 07-08 and barely passable in 08-09 (flunking out of the Dainius Zubrus School of Statistical Inflation). We thank him for his contributions to those two teams (those two tallies in Game Six of the Penguins series were nice), and wish him well in Russia... but we'll gladly take Mike Knuble in his place.

Four Strengths

Elite offensive talent - The Caps' "Young Guns" (Alex Ovechkin, Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green) all finished in the top 13 in the League in regular season points-per-game in 2008-09, with Green the only defenseman in the top-60. These kids - not one of whom is yet 26 years old - haven't even reached their respective primes yet. If healthy, the sky's the limit for the quartet.
The powerplay - Piggybacking off that last point, the Caps were second in the league in power play conversion last season when Green missed 14 games, Semin missed 20, and the team lacked consistent net presence (save for Laich). The unit could be even better this year (thanks to Knuble and hopefully healthy years from Chris Clark and Brian Pothier), but even if it's not, it will remain one of the most feared in the League.
Depth on the blue line - At the moment the Capitals have at least eight guys who are clearly capable of taking a regular shift in the NHL, with at least a couple more in Hershey. That doesn't change the fact the team could use another legitimate top-four guy, but it's also an organizational strength very few NHL teams have.
The third line - While we don't know who, exactly, will comprise the third line (especially with Fleischmann and Eric Fehr on injured reserve to start the season), we do know that it will be a strong unit. David Steckel will almost certianly be the center and the wings should be filled out by a combination of Laich, Clark, Fehr, and Bourque (sorry, Matt Bradley Fan Club - we don't see him filling that role long-term). The Caps third line should have everything you look at that spot in the lineup - size, grit, defensive skill, and the ability to chip in on offense - and should ensure the opposition can't afford to take any shifts off.

Four Weaknesses

Discipline - Last year's Caps team took far, far too many penalties that were either lazy, selfish, or unnecessary and, as a result, they were shorthanded as often as just about anyone anyone else in the league. The departures of Fedorov and Brashear should help, but the team still has a lot of guys who take too many bad penalties.
High-end defensemen - Mike Green's just as good as his Norris Trophy Finalist status suggests, and both Tom Poti and and Jeff Schultz are solid defenders who bring a lot of value as penalty killers. After those three, however, there's a pretty steep drop off that inherently results in at least one guy being given more minutes and more responsibility than he should be. The addition - or emergence - of one more top-four defenseman would make a world of difference for this team right now.
Goaltending - Granted, this could turn out to be one of the team's greatest strengths, given the trajectory on which youngsters Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth find themselves. But at the moment, those two kids have combined to play fewer NHL minutes (playoffs included) than incumbent starter Jose Theodore played either before or after last year's All-Star Break. Competition should drive each of the three to be at his best, but the question mark in goal is certainly real in October... which may or may not matter in April.
Enforcement - Bradley's always willing to throw if need be, but doesn't have the win-loss record to match his heart. John Erskine can certainly handle himself when the rough stuff gets going, but concussions have limited how often he's dropped the mittens in recent years. Enforcement, for now, has given way to team toughness. We'll see if that can last for 82 games.

X-Factor: Bob Woods. If the new assistant coach can overhaul the defense the way some people think he can, the Caps could become the team to beat in the East.

Depth chart:

Left Wing	Center		Right Wing
Alex Ovechkin	Nicklas Backstrom		Mike Knuble
Tomas Fleischmann	Brendan Morrison		Alex Semin
Brooks Laich	David Steckel		Chris Clark
Quintin Laing	Boyd Gordon		Eric Fehr
Chris Bourque	Keith Aucoin		Matt Bradley
Oskar Osala	Jay Beagle		Alexandre Giroux
	Mathieu Perreault		Andrew Gordon
Other
Michael Nylander
Defense
Mike Green		Tom Poti
Jeff Schultz		Shaone Morrisonn
Brian Pothier		Milan Jurcina
John Erskine		Tyler Sloan
Karl Alzner		Sean Collins
John Carlson
Goaltender
Jose Theodore
Semyon Varlamov
Michal Neuvirth
Braden Holtby

Predictions

David: In the summer and fall before the 2007-08 season (and before I was blogging) I was yammering to anyone who would listen about how excited I was about the Capitals off-season and how much better they could be as a team. When pressed on how good I thought they were (and could be) my stock answer wound up being that I thought they would be a team that bounced around the last playoff spot or two for most of the season and eventually made it in with a late season run because I expected them to get better as the season went on, that I expected them to lose in the Conference Finals in the next (08-09) season, and to win the Cup the year after that. While I won't be so bold as to predict a Capitals Cup win in September in a public forum, I will say that the team's progression has been even better than I expected. They might not win the Cup, but the Caps should at the very least be in the Eastern Conference Finals - and I expect them to bring the Prince of Wales trophy to D.C.

Pepper: Team toughness sufficient to win a Cup, with or without Brashear, has yet to be demonstrated. That nebulous quality means physical play and an increased willingness to drive to the net "Fred Shero style," but also relentlessness -- keeping the foot on the gas pedal. Too often last season the team would shock their opponents with their jaw-dropping skill and energy, and then coast for the remainder of the contest. And we've seen some of that dynamic in this pre-season already. Regardless of whether or not we see a repeat of that behavior in the 2009-10 campaign, the talent on this team is more than enough for it to cruise to another Southeast Division title.

But, as currently constituted (i.e., well before the March trading deadline), what I foresee as the team's undoing in the playoffs is the lack of a veteran defenseman who has deep playoff, if not Cup winning, experience. Someone who can clear the crease or tie up a stick looking for rebounds. Without that, they'll still likely win two rounds next spring, but falter in the Eastern Conference finals.

J.P.: I think the real challenge for this Caps team will be staying reasonably focused over the course of an 82-game regular season and not picking up some of the bad habits they developed in February and March of last year that carried into the playoffs. The talent is there in spades - if this team wants to win and is willing to do what it takes to win, there's no reason they can't, and no reason they won't. They'll win the East, and then anything can happen.

Poll

Where will the Capitals finish the regular season?

First in the Eastern Conference

549 votes

First in the Southeast Division, but not first in the Conference

501 votes

Not first in the Southeast, but in the playoffs

16 votes

Out of the playoffs

10 votes

1076 votes | Poll has closed

Wednesday Caps Clips: The Cup Will Be Skated Today

J.P. — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:43:59 -0000

via the shoebox next to my desk

View full size photo »

Your savory breakfast links:

Group A played and won their first Duchesne Cup game in ~~a yawn-inducing~~ an epic shootout, thanks to Boyd Gordon's sixth round goal:
- Singled out for strong performances were Michal Neuvirth and Jose Theodore, Karl Alzner and John Carlson, Keith Aucoin and Nicklas Backstrom. [Capitals Insider]
- Singled out for other reasons was the top line of Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin and Mike Knuble, of whom Bruce Boudreau said, "They were fine, but I don't think the pace was anywhere near where it should be. They're just good players and they were getting by on being good players." [In The Room]
- Video of the shootout and AO's and Bruce's respective media scrums. [Caps365]
- "Neuvirth suffered a deep scratch on the side of his neck from Alex Ovechkin's skate during the scrimmage," but is fine. That's a little too close for comfort. [@tarikelbashir]
- Corey on the logjam on the blueline. [Washington Times]
- A recap of the scrimmage and a quick chat with Oskar Osala. [OFB]
- CapsChick on the battles down the right side. [VFtCS]
- Pictures! [Caps in Pictures (and again)]
Wait, there are more than two goalies at Caps' camp worthing committing pixels to? Inconceivable! [The Hockey News]
A handful of Caps attended last night's Sneaker Ball, which was no doubt highlighted by this reunion of Easterns Motors ad alums... or with George McPhee being named D.C. Sports Executive of the Year and AO being named D.C. Sportsman of the Year. [via @nateewell]
The Caps have re-upped with WFED and WTOP. [Capitals]
Fake Twitter accounts... so five minutes ago, people. [Washington Post]
AO might need to brush up on his economics. [NBC Washington]
New pics are up over at Mike Green's website. [GreenLife52]
In case you missed 'em, some of the quotes that didn't make it into yesterday's Bob Woods post can be found here.
Highlights from the FanForum telecon with Matt Bradley and Brooks Laich. [FanPost]
Win Caps Convention tickets by filling in a blank. Sounds easy enough. [Rock the Red.net]
The Oilers' Robbie Schremp "has to convince new Oilers head coach Pat Quinn ... that he isn't like forward Alexandre Giroux, who scored 60 goals with Washington Capitals farm team in Hershey last season but has played only 12 NHL games and he's 28." Robbie Schremp could do a lot worse. [Edmonton Journal]

Opening Night Roster: Who's In and Who's Out?

David M. Getz — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 19:05:51 -0000

via daylife.com

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When the Capitals opened training camp earlier this week they knew they'd likely be without the services of right wing Eric Fehr, a 2008-09 regular who's recovering from surgery on each of his shoulders. The team got further bad news when it learned this week that Tomas Fleischmann, suffering from deep vein thrombosis, would also have to be left off the opening night roster.

The injuries to Fleischmann and Fehr have raised some roster uncertainty, along with the chances for a number of players who spent most of last season in Hershey to make the big club and show what they can do at the NHL level. With that in mind, this afternoon we're taking a look at who the top contenders for that last spot or two will. See the list after the jump.

Chris Bourque

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	8	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	11	9.1
Hershey, 2008-09	69	21	52	73	10	57	7	1	-	-	-	-

Working for him: The biggest thing working in Bourque's favor might be his versatility. He can play either wing (or even center in a pinch), he has the attitude to play an energy line role, the offensive skill to play on a scoring line, and even spent some time killing penalties in Hershey. Given how much Bruce Boudreau's played with lines in the past and the fact that things are unsettled right now Bourque's ability to wear different hats might earn him a sweater.

Cons: Although Bourque does well is most aspects of the game, there may not be any one aspect where he outperforms the others vying for a spot. As a result no one's quite sure where he fits at the NHL level.

Odds to make the team: 70%

Quintin Laing

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.0
Hershey, 2008-09	55	9	16	25	12	21	2	0	-	-	-	-

Working for him: Laing's a quintessential fourth line grinder: he works, he hits, he blocks shots, he crashes the net, and he does it all without complaining. To boot, Laing's not a bad penalty killing option, and the Capitals will certainly be looking to improve in that area.

Working against him: The scope of Laing's game is extremely limited, especially at the NHL level; he does what he does well, but just doesn't do all that much. It'd be hard to fault the coaching staff if they decided they needed a more dynamic and versatile presence up front.

Odds to make the team: 53%

Keith Aucoin

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	12	2	4	6	5	4	1	0	0	0	15	13.3
Hershey, 2008-09	70	25	71	96	28	73	10	1	-	-	-	-

Working for him: Aucoin's time in Washington last season left Caps fans wanting more and wondering what the career AHL'er could do with regular playing time at the NHL level. Of all the guys on the bubble the case can be made that Aucoin has more effectively demonstrated he can be an NHL forward than anyone else.

Working against him: Aucoin played center for Hershey last year, something that's simply not going to happen with the Capitals garunteed to have four NHL caliber centers in the lineup on opening night, along with Brooks Laich and Michael Nylander as reserves. Like Giroux, Aucoin's value is tied to his production and like Giroux it's questionable whether Aucoin can produce enough at the NHL level to justify giving him a roster spot.

Odds to make the team: 25%

Alexandre Giroux

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	12	1	1	2	4	10	0	0	1	0	20	5.0
Hershey, 2008-09	69	60	37	107	23	84	22	4	-	-	-	-

Working for him: You don't score 74 goals in the AHL (regular season and playoffs combined) by accident -- Giroux's got some measure of offensive talent. In addition he can play on either the right or the left side.

Working against him: Giroux doesn't bring much to the table outside of his offensive ability. He's not great in his own end, he's not particularly physical, and he doesn't have the talent to kill penalties in the NHL. To put it bluntly, Giroux's a point-producing forward who hasn't demonstrated he can produce at the NHL level and would have a very hard time cracking either of the Capitals' powerplay units. Plus he takes way too many penalties.

Odds to make the team: 20%

Jay Beagle

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	3	0	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	0	5	0.0
Hershey, 2008-09	47	4	5	9	-7	37	0	0	-	-	-	-

Working for him: Beagle can play either center or wing. His big body and willingness to go into the corners make him an ideal grinder, especially given that he'd likely come to the team with zero pretense.

Working against him: Although he saw playoff time with the Caps last season, Beagle only looked like a marginal NHL player. The Capitals could do worse, but they could also do better and that's the biggest issue for Beagle: proving he's a better option than guys like Laing and Bourque.

Odds to make the team: 10%

Oskar Osala

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	2	0	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.0
Hershey, 2008-09	75	23	14	37	11	47	3	0	-	-	-	-

Working for him: Osala brings a raw combination of size and skill and has the potential to become a top six net-crashing power forward in the mold of Mike Knuble.

Working against him: In his stint in D.C. during the 2008-09 season Osala looked overmatched by the speed of the NHL game. That, and the fact that he slowed down drastically during Hershey's campaign, suggest he's not ready for regular NHL action just yet. Long term it might be better for Osala to get big minutes in Hershey than play on the fourth line in Washington.

Odds to make the team: 8% to make the roster, 5% to be dressed opening night.

Andrew Gordon

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington, 2008-09	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.0
Hershey, 2008-09	80	21	24	45	16	47	4	0	-	-	-	-

Working for him: Gordon's has shown he can produce in the AHL and has decent size up front.

Working against him: Like Beagle, Gordon might be a solid option as an NHL fourth liner, but he's going to have a hard time beating out the competition.

Odds to make the team: 8% to make the roster, 5% to be dressed opening night.

Anyone we're missing? Anyone we've sold short? Anyone we're too high on? Just let us know in the comments section.

Capitals Fan Draft Primer: 2009 Edition

David M. Getz — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:16:31 -0000

The season's over, the Cup has been awarded, the Rink Wraps are all but complete and the mind of hockey fans, both on SBN and elsewhere, are turning to the NHL draft. With that in mind, we here at Japers' Rink have put together a draft primer for Capitals fans. Make the jump for all the information about the organization's strengths, weaknesses, prospects, and targets that you'll need heading in to this weekend's festivities.

Capitals Draft Picks

(1) Round 1, pick 24, 24th overall
(2) Round 2, pick 25, 55th overall
(3) Round 3, pick 24, 85th overall
(4) Round 4, pick 24, 115th overall
(5) Round 5, pick 24, 145th overall
(6) Round 6, pick 24, 175th overall
(7) Round 7, pick 24, 205th overall

Capitals Top Prospects

These are the organization’s top prospects, regardless of position. After their names you will find their position, age, and the team with which they finished up last season.

(1) Karl Alzner – Defense, 20, Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Simeon Varlamov – Goalie, 21, Washington Capitals, NHL
(3) John Carlson – Defense, 19, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Michal Neuvirth – Goalie, 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(5) Anton Gustafsson – Center, 19, Bofors, Swedish HockeyAllsvenskan (second division)
(6) Oskar Osala – Left Wing, 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(7) Chris Bourque – Left Wing, 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(8) Dmitri Kugryshev – Right Wing, Quebec Remparts, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League
(9) Francois Bouchard – Right Wing, 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(10) Mathieu Perreault – Center, 21, Hershey Bears, AHL

Top Prospects by Position

Left Wing
(1) Oskar Osala – 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) Chris Bourque – 23, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Greg Burke – 19, Cedar Rapids, USHL
(4) Andrew Glass – 20, Boston University, NCAA (Hockey East)

Center
(1) Anton Gustafsson – 19, Bofors, Swedish HockeyAllsvenskan (second division)
(2) Mathieu Perreault – 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Jay Beagle – 24, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Joel Broda – 19, Calgary Hitmen, WHL
(5) Jake Hauswirth – 21, Omaha Lancers, USHL
(5) Kyle Wilson – 24, Hershey Bears, AHL
(6) Philip DeSimone – 21, University of New Hampshire, NCAA (Hockey East)
(7) Trevor Bruess – 23, MSU – Mankato, NCAA (WCHA)

Right Wing
(1) Dmitri Kugryshev – 19, Quebec Remparts, Quebec Major Junior Hockey League
(2) Francois Bouchard – 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Stefan Della Rovere – 20, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Andrew Gordon – Right Wing, - 23, Hershey Bears, AHL

Defense
(1) Karl Alzner – 20, Hershey Bears, AHL
(2) John Carlson – Defense, 19, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Eric Mestery – 19, Lethbridge Hurricanes, WHL
(4) Josh Godfrey – 21, South Carolina Stingrays, ECHL
(5) Keith Seabrook – 20, Calgary Hitmen, WHL
(6) Joe Finley – 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(7) Sami Lepisto – 24, Hershey Bears, AHL
(8) Viktor Dovgan – 21, South Carolina Stingrays, ECHL
(9) Patrick McNeill – 22, Hershey Bears, AHL
(10) Zach Miskovic – 24, St. Lawrence University, NCAA (ECAC)

Goalie
(1) Simeon Varlamov – 21, Washington Capitals, NHL
(2) Michal Neuvirth – 21, Hershey Bears, AHL
(3) Brandon Holtby – 19, Hershey Bears, AHL
(4) Daren Machesney – 22, Hershey Bears, AHL
(5) Dan Dunn – 21, St. Cloud State, NCAA (WCHA)

Organization Strengths

(1) Goaltending. It certainly looks like Daren Machesney’s 2007-08 season was a fluke and Dan Dunn isn’t starting at St. Cloud State, but the Capitals still have one of, if not the, best goaltender prospect pools in the NHL.

(2) Defense. What the Capitals have at this position is unique: high-end talent and strength in numbers. Unless something goes horribly awry (knock on wood), both Karl Alzner and John Carlson should be very good NHL defensemen and the word is it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise for either (or both) of them to make the team out of camp next fall. Beyond the two blue-chippers the team has about a half dozen guys who have realistic chances at becoming NHL defensemen. Of course the odds on all of the Capitals’ decent defense prospects panning out are pretty slim, but then the odds on none of them panning out are pretty slim too.

(3) Left Wing. The Capitals are obviously doing pretty well for themselves at the left wing position at the NHL level, where Alex Ovechkin and Alexander Semin have scored a combined 181 points and 343 points over the last two seasons, and the team's not doing too bad at the prospect level either. Both Chris Bourque and Oskar Osala could be playing regularly for the Caps are early as next season and Stefan Della Rovere has a chance to become the kind of fourth line grit guy you always want on your team.

Organization Weaknesses

(1) Size up front. Francois Bouchard, Stefan Della Rovere, Chris Bourque, and Mathieu Perreault are all legitimate NHL prospects; all are under six feet tall, and Bourque and Perreault are 5’9’’ or smaller. There are exceptions of course – both Anton Gustafsson and Oskar Osala are big bodies, but as a whole it’s not a big group.

(2) Two way forwards. One of the team’s weaknesses last year was addressed with the selection of Anton Gustafsson but it's still the case that a number of the team's better forward prospect are either defensively minded grinder types (Andrew Gordon, Jay Beagle, Chris Bourque) or offensive talents with defensive question marks (Francois Bouchard, Mathieu Perreault)

Draft Strategy

Year in and year out, and in every sport, the question is whether it’s smarter to draft based on need or choose the best available player. That debate goes beyond the Washington Capitals and the 2009 NHL Draft and it’s not really the matter we’re here to discuss, but there are a couple of notes to that are worth making in that regard. One is that the Capitals have to very happy with their current situation with regards to goaltending and defense, while they’re probably not as happy with their prospect depth, both in quality and quantity, at the forward positions. The other is that when you’re in a position, like the Capitals are, where your NHL team is successful and your prospect depth is for the most part solid, you can afford to draft players based on overall talent rather than position. With where the Capitals are as an organization right now, a pick that ends up being a second pairing defensemen is more valuable than on that ends up being a third line wing, despite the team’s relative depth at each position. For that reason we favor a general best-player-available strategy, with slight preference for forwards.

However we also think it’s important that the Capitals address needs in the organization in terms of player types and attributes, rather than just by position. For the Capitals that means players who are physical and tenacious enough to battle through adversity and to wear down opponents and who are also skilled enough to take regular shifts. As it stands right now the Capitals have, both at the NHL level and in their prospect pool, plenty of players (Jeff Schultz, Karl Alzner, Francois Bouchard) who are young, cheap, and generally solid and a fair number of guys (Matt Bradley, John Erskine, Joe Finley, Stefan Della Rovere) who bring physicality and a grinding mentality. What they don’t have enough of are guys like Brooks Laich -- guys who can contribute with their skill at times but are willing to play hard enough and do "the little things" well enough to be significant contributors even when they’re not producing offensively or shutting down quality opponents.

Thus we’d like to see the Capitals go with players who project to be good, if not great, contributors at the NHL level even if their ceiling isn’t as high as some other guys who might be on the board. With where the Capitals stand at present there’s no need to roll the dice on a player who might wind up being either a top line talent or a bust if there are guys who project as second and third line players but have very little downside.

Names to Know

Carter Ashton - The question with Ashton is going to be 'how much stock should we put in one season?' Make no mistake about it, Ashton's 2008-09 numbers (50 points; 30 goals in 70 games) were impressive but his 07-08 season (nine points; five goals in 40 games) and the fact that he's more physically mature than a lot of the guys he's play against mean Ashton might just be producing because of an advantage in sheer athleticism. Someone out there will fall in love with his production and frame and draft him in the first round. Whether they're getting a steal or bust is something we won't know for several years.

Zach Budish – Budish is an enormous (6’3’’, 229 pounds) right wing who hasn’t played competitive hockey since 07-08 due to a torn ACL he suffered while playing football last fall. Still, Budish, who will attend the University of Minnesota in the fall, is ranked 22nd among North American skaters by the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau and should be a first round pick. If he’s still there at 24, he’s another guy the Capitals would consider, which is great considering that his favorite NHL player is Alexander Ovechkin.

Matt Clark – No player’s stock has risen as quickly as Clark’s has this year -- he went from being ranked 23rd among Ontario League skaters at the beginning of the season, to 58th among all North American based skaters at the midpoint, to 31st among North American skaters on the NHL’s Central Scouting Bureau’s final list. Clark’s selection may not make a big splash right away, but he’s a name to remember going forward.

Jared Cowen – The 6’5’’, 225 pound blueliner is generally regarded as the second-best defenseman in his own end (behind Victor Hedman); how much he can contribute offensively remains to be seen. The most important thing for fans of the team that drafts Cowen to realize that despite his talent level, it’s probably going to be a little while before he’s a shutdown defender in the NHL, and that he should become a solid player a few years down the line. Also his favorite movie is "Forgetting Sarah Marshall", so we have to give some him credit there.

Matt Duchene – The consensus third overall pick, Duchene has a ton of skill, a great shot, and is one of the fastest and most fluid skaters in this year’s draft. Because of his size (Duchene is both under six feet tall and under 200 pounds), speed, and shooting ability that surpasses his playmaking skills, it’s possible Duchene ends up as a wing in the NHL, but solid two-way centers are so rare it’d only happen in the right situation.

Brian Dumoulin - He's 18 years old, 6'3'', 197 pounds, has a body fat percentage of six, an eighty inch wingspan, and will be headed to college (Boston University) in the fall, giving him ample time to develop before he has to be signed. Sound like someone the Capitals might be interested in? Yeah, we think so too. Dumoulin is currently ranked 61st among North American skaters and the Capitals could make a move on him in the late second or early third round.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - A smooth skater with a ton of offensive potential, Ekman-Larsson has been climbing draft boards around the league all season long and should be snapped up in the first half of the first round, perhaps even in the top ten picks. There might not be a ton of fanfare around Ekman-Larsson's selection, but he's a guy everyone could be looking at in a few years finding themselves wondering how he fell as far as he did in the same way people do with Anze Kopitar and Mike Richards.

Ryan Ellis - Skill with a lack of size seems to be the theme of this draft and there's no player that empitomizes it better than Ellis. What he's done in terms of production is simply amazing for a defenseman: through 120 career Ontario Hockey League regular season games Ellis has recorded 152 points (37 goals), and he notched eight goals and twenty-three assists in twenty playoffs games this past spring. Yet Ellis' 5'10'', 175 pound frame is making people wonder just how effective he'll be in the bigger, strong NHL. Unspurpsingly because of his size and offensive skills, Ellis has drawn comprison's to Brian Rafalsi. Ellis should be selected in the first half of the first round, and a top eight selection isn't out of the question.

Victor Hedman – John Tavares, the slick center who finished last season with Dale Hunter’s London Knights, might be the sexy number one overall pick, but Hedman may end up being the more valuable NHL player by virtue of his position. A boy in a man’s body at 6’6’’, 227 pounds, Hedman was second in the Swedish Elite League in plus-minus, tenth in goals among defenseman, notched 21 points in 43 games and played 21:16 a night as a seventeen year old and frankly if the top two prospects in the this draft were defenseman Victor Smith from Regina and center Johnny Karlsson from Malmo, the conversation leading up to this draft might have been very different. On June 26th, fans of whichever team winds up with Hedman may not be as excited as those who wind up with Tavares but they might just be better off five years down the road – big, physical defensemen who can play in all situations and play 28 minutes a night in the NHL are a very rare commodity.

Evander Kane - Kane scored an impressive 48 goals and 48 assists for the Vancouver Giants of the Western Hockey League this past season, doing it mostly with his soft hands and skating ability, including his lightning-quick speed. The biggest knock on Kane is his size: he's listed at just 160 pounds on the Giants' official website. Still, Kane has what they call a "projectable frame" and his talent will make him a top five pick. Atlanta is the most likely destination and if Kane ends up going there an interesting off-ice story will be what impact a black marquee player could have when it comes to raising the Thrashers' profile.

Zack Kassian - At age 18 Kassian is already 6'3'' and over 200 pounds and he uses the size well, winning pucks in corners, hitting opponents, and opening up space in the offensive zone. As is so often the case with power forward prospects, there are some questions about how well his skill will translate at the highest level. Nonetheless, whomever drafts Kassian should be confident they're getting a guy who will one day at the very least be a solid NHL player. Kassian's been projected to go anywhere from top-ten to early twenties and if he's still on the board at pick seventeen or eighteen the Caps might be enticed enough by his position and style of play to move up and get him.

Robin Lehner – Lehner’s been regarded as the best European goalie prospect all season and could be the first goalie taken this year. In a class that’s not regarded as all that strong in net, it will be interesting to see where exactly the top goaltending prospects, Lehner included, go.

Ryan O'Reilly - Here's what mynhldraft.com (by way of hockeyprospect.com) had to say about O'Reilly: "This young player showed an incredible drive to achieve on a team that lacked much talent and direction. He possesses excellent on-ice vision and has a nice set of hands. He has worked himself from a poor skater, to an average skater with a lot of effort. He is very smart without the puck for a young player and is quite reliable defensively. Is one of the OHL’s most effective penalty killers....He is definitely a character kid with a great attitude, who is a very hard worker. Erie is hoping he can rub off on many of its other players. Has excellent intangibles and top shelf leadership qualities....We like him a lot and think he has a lot of future upside." The bottom line on O'Reilly is that, barring injury, he should be come a productive NHL player in the mold of Boyd Gordon, Brooks Laich, and Mike Richards. Just what his ceiling is at the NHL is something people aren't quite sure of, but whomever drafts O'Reilly should be getting someone who will contribute to their roster some time in the next few years. The relatively low risk, work ethic, and style of play make O'Reilly perhaps the single player most likely to be selected by the Capitals with the 24th pick (barring trade) - and probably the best bet among players still left at that spot.

Brayden Schenn - The younger brother of former fifth overall pick and current Toronto Maple Leaf Luke Schenn is a center who brings offensive talent, physicality, a large frame, and solid defense to the table. He's probably not going to come in and play as big a role as his brother did in his rookie season, although it's possible given that he should be a top-eight pick. The best odds are on Los Angeles (picking fifth) and Phoenix (picking sixth).

Jordan Schroeder - Like Kane, Schroeder, who currently attends the University of Minnesota, has a ton of talent but his small stature (about 5'8'', 165 pounds) is making some scouts uncomfortable. Don't be surprised if a team or two pass over Schroeder only to end up regretting it down the line a la Zach Parise.

John Tavares – Tavares’ name is widely expected to be the first one called when the Islanders' front office brain trust steps to the podium to kick things off on the 26th and the funny thing is, he might be even better than a lot of people realize. Tavares has had a high profile for a while now, dating back to 2005 when he was granted an exemption and allowed to join the Ontario Hockey League a year early. That, coupled with a 2006-07 season that saw Tavares break Wayne Gretzky's OHL record for goals in a season by a sixteen-year-old and the Canadian sports media’s obsession with finding the next great young player, mean Tavares has been in the limelight for a long time. So long, in fact, that people have moved away from praising his immense skill level and have begun to focus on his flaws. Make no mistake about it, they exist – Tavares isn’t a great skater and doesn’t have outstanding size – but he’s an immense offensive talent.

Monday Caps Clips

J.P. — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 10:39:23 -0000

Your savory breakfast links:

Simeon Varlamov's weekend back in the AHL: 1-1-0, 1.50 goals against average, .961 save percentage. Nice.
For those of us hungering for another Cap forward who will go to the net, Oskar Osala is that guy. [WaPo]
Must-read on Braden Holtby. [Sportsnet.ca]
A bit more on Zach Miskovic, whom the Caps signed last week. [Watertown Daily Times]
Not breaking news: Alex Ovechkin is worth every penny you pay to see him. [NHL Home Ice (XM)]
AO mini-helmet. Want. [Alex Ovetjkin]
If the Caps let all their Unrestricted Free Agents walk this summer, they're not losing much apparently. [USA Today]
We've said it before and we'll say it again - it's never too early for a mock draft, and NHL.com has three up in which the Caps take a WHL D (that's worked out well recently), a pivot from the Q and a Swedish blueliner whose old man played 10 seasons with the Rangers with their first picks [NHL.com]
The Toronto Sun's Mike Zeisberger gives the Norris to Zdeno Chara. [Toronto Sun]
"The best song ever," per Steinz. Definitely better than "Stairway." [MySpace/Pummeler, potentially NSFW]

Trade Deadline Prospects Update: The Untouchables and The Trade Bait

David M. Getz — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 15:00:11 -0000

Right about now, the trade deadline is on the mind of just about every hockey fan in North America. Given the pretty good chance of their being some player and/or prospect movement, we figured now would be as good a time as any for a prospects update, although we're going about it a little differently this time around. The last prospects update, which came in late January, featured short blurbs on each prospect, their development, and where they might fit in with the club in coming seasons. Those blurbs are forgone here (though I encourage anyone who may have missed the January update to go back and check them out) in favor of discussion on subject matter more pertinent to the upcoming deadline: organizational depth by position, untouchable players, and guys who might be trade bait.

Goalies

By now most Capitals fans are familiar with the team's young and talented netminding duo of Simeon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth. That the Capitals have two guys who have the talent to be legit NHL number ones is a level of depth that is very rare. The question is this: does the fact that the Capitals have two talented young goalies make the players untouchable or expendable? On one hand, keeping both Varlamov and Neuvirth significantly increases the odds of the team having a homegrown number one goalie on the roster since it's unlikely both will wind up busts and goaltending tandems seem to be on the rise. On the other hand, young goaltenders are so valuable that holding two of them rather than moving one to shore up other areas may not be great asset management.

Braden Holtby - (G, 19)	Lge	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Saskatoon	WHL	56	3270	39	13	3	136	2.50	1584	1448	.914	6

Daren Machesney - (G, 22)	Lge	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Hershey	AHL	31	1703	17	9	1	91	3.21	721	630	.873	3

Michal Neuvirth (G, 20)	Lge	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Washington	NHL	3	160	2	0	0	6	2.25	72	66	.917	0
Hershey	AHL	6	370	3	2	1	20	3.24	169	149	.882	0
South Carolina	ECHL	13	762	6	7	0	29	2.28	354	325	.918	2

Simeon Varlamov - (G, 20)	Lge	GP	MIN	W	L	O	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Washington	NHL	2	120	2	0	0	3	1.50	64	61	.953	0
Hershey	AHL	21	1187	16	5	0	48	2.43	552	504	.913	2

Defensemen

The Capitals are deep in terms of prospect depth on the blue line, with at least a half dozen defensemen who stand a chance at being good NHL players. Size is a plus here: Eric Mestery, John Carlson, and Joe Finley are all least 6'3'', the biggest being Finley who's 6'7'', 245 pound frame would already put him among the biggest defensemen in the NHL. The Capitals' defensive prospect pool also boasts versatility: Finley, Mestery, and Viktor Dovgan are all stay-at-home types, and Josh Godfrey, Sami Lepisto, and Keith Seabrook have offensive upside. The untouchables here are John Carlson, who has been compared to Mike Komisarek and has the hardest shot in the OHL, and Karl Alzner, who most Capitals fans already know about, both for their high ceilings and their likelihood of realizing their potential. Lepisto may be the most likely trade candidate, as he seems to be buried on the Capitals depth chart and his production at the AHL is likely to intrigue potential trade partners. Finley, valued for his size, could also make his way out of town, though his upside is high enough that it would probably take a pretty significant return to pry him away.

John Carlson - (D, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
London	OHL	55	15	56	71	20	71	8	1	-	-	-	-

Sean Collins - (D, 25)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington	NHL	15	1	1	2	1	12	0	0	0	0	14	.071
Hershey	AHL	34	0	7	7	5	32	0	0	0	0	-	.000

Viktor Dovgan - (D, 21)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	-	-
South Carolina	ECHL	45	2	9	11	-5	48	1	0	-	-	-	-

Joe Finley - (D, 21)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
U. North Dakota	WCHA	20	2	8	10	5	34	1	0	0	0	-	-

Josh Godfrey - (D, 21)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	13	0	6	6	6	21	0	0	-	-	-	-
South Carolina	ECHL	26	4	12	16	E	24	2	1	-	-	-	-

Sami Lepisto - (D, 24)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington	NHL	7	0	4	4	-3	6	0	0	0	0	7	0.0
Hershey	AHL	55	4	28	32	16	68	2	0	-	-	-	-

Eric Mestery - (D, 18)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Tri-City	WHL	16	0	6	6	-1	10	-	-	-	-
Lethbridge	WHL	36	1	11	12	3	26	-	-	-	-
Total	WHL	52	1	17	18	2	36	-	-	-	-

Sasha Pokulok - (D, 22)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	8	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	-	-	-	-
South Carolina	ECHL	23	2	9	11	10	37	2	0	-	-	-	-

Keith Seabrook - (D, 20)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Calgary	WHL	59	14	36	50	18	56	11	0	-	-	-	-

Forwards

While the Caps's defensive prospects have a nice combination of NHL caliber talent and size, most of the team's forward prospects are on the small side: both Chris Bourque and Mathieu Perreault are generously listed at 5'9'' and among the younger high-end prospects, only Oskar Osala and Anton Gustafsson are over six feet tall. It's probably the case that none of the team's forward prospects are off limits, but we'd like see Osala designated as such. The young winger has the potential to be a 25 goal scorer at the NHL and could play at over 230 pounds in a couple years. Players like that don't come along all that often. Chris Bourque and Francois Bouchard are probably the most likely trade bait, other than Osala.

Jay Beagle - (C/RW, 23)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington	NHL	3	0	0	0	-3	2	0	0	0	0	5	0.0
Hershey	AHL	29	3	3	6	-4	33	0	0	-	-	-	-

Francois Bouchard - (RW, 21)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	49	12	13	25	13	24	1	0	-	-	-	-

Chris Bourque - (RW/LW, 23)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington	NHL	6	1	0	1	E	0	0	0	0	0	10	.100
Hershey	AHL	55	17	38	55	7	43	6	1	-	-	-	-

Joel Broda - (C, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Calgary	WHL	23	13	19	32	17	15	3	0	-	-	-	-
Moose Jaw	WHL	39	36	12	48	7	45	8	4	-	-	-	-
Total	WHL	62	49	31	80	24	60	11	4	-	-	-	-

Greg Burke - (LW, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Cedar Rapids	USHL	8	2	0	2	-1	8	0	0	0	0	17	.118

Stefan Della Rovere - (LW, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Barrie	OHL	51	27	23	50	6	140	10	1	-	-	-	-
Team Canada	INT	6	1	1	2	3	26	1	0	0	0	5	.200

Andrew Gordon - (RW, 23)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington	NHL	1	0	0	0	E	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Hershey	AHL	62	18	20	38	17	32	3	0	-	-	-	-

Anton Gustafsson - (C, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Bofors	Swe-2	25	6	4	10	-	22	-	-	-	-	-	-

Dmitri Kugryshev (RW, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Quebec	QMJHL	51	31	33	54	20	28	10	0	6	-	195	.159
Team Russia	INT	7	1	1	2	3	6	0	0	0	0	22	.046

Oskar Osala - (LW, 19)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Washington	NHL	1	0	0	0	E	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Hershey	AHL	59	20	13	33	11	32	3	0	-	-	-	-

Mathieu Perreault - (C, 21)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	59	9	33	42	15	26	4	0	-	-	-	-

Kyle Wilson - (C, 24)	Lge	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
Hershey	AHL	62	24	22	46	12	19	6	0	-	-	-	-

So, what jumps out at you? Who should the Capitals hold on to and who's expendable? Perhaps most importantly of all, who might George McPhee be able to move for more than they're really worth?

Is The Window Half Closed Or Half Open?

David M. Getz — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 21:22:23 -0000

With the trade deadline now less than a week away, the hot stove is really starting to heat up as media outlets turn their focus toward all things trade, SBN's NHL trade deadline page goes live, significant deals start trickling in, and CapsNation discusses what, if anything, the Capitals ought to do.

Of course the biggest concern for the Capitals is how to balance any improvement of their current roster with the loss of talented young players and/or draft picks and the subsequent weakening of future rosters, a point expounded upon quite well by D'ohboy in the comments of this Fan Post. So are the Capitals in a position where it makes sense to simply go for broke, even if it means mortgaging a significant portion of their future? Edward Fraser of The Hockey News thinks so:

Success can be a fickle beast. Just ask followers of the Penguins, Senators, Lightning and Ducks.

Deep playoff runs ignited by overachieving performances result in higher, and often unrealistic, salary demands from players in both starting and supporting roles.

Take the Steeltown’s Flightless Birds. After a somewhat surprise run to the Cup final last season, Pittsburgh was, among other examples, unable to re-sign key cog Ryan Malone, who wound up with $31.5 million over seven years ($4.5 million per season) in Tampa, and then overpaid impending unrestricted free agent defenseman Brooks Orpik to the tune of $22.5 million over six ($3.75 million per).

With so much cap space tied up in so few players (Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Staal, Whitney), the Pens were and are forced to fill their roster with "affordable" (a nice word for less-skilled) skaters, which has ultimately led to their current non-playoff position.

And the Capitals are destined to end up in the same sinking boat.

Uh oh. No one wants to end up where Fraser describes the Penguins as being right now. But is that a realistic expectation for the Caps? Here's Fraser's reasoning:

Assuming Chris Clark remains on long-term IR, Washington has approximately $29 million in cap space dedicated to just eight players (four forwards, four blueliners) heading into 2010-11. The assumption is the cap will drop following next season, but let’s be extra generous and say the ceiling only falls to $55 million, leaving the Caps $26 million to fill in the minimum 12 roster spots.

Both Alexander Semin and Nicklas Backstrom will be restricted free agents looking for enormous raises, let’s charitably say they’ll get $6 million each, and the Capitals will need to find a No. 1 goalie, which at the low end will run you $4 million.

Add it up and you get $10 million left over for six forwards, two blueliners and a backup goalie. D’oh.

Even if Washington is able to rid itself of Michael Nylander and his near $5 million and Simeon Varlamov, with a salary just less than $1 million, establishes himself as No. 1 netminder, that still only provides $18 million for 10 players, or an average of $1.8 million each.

If you pencil in prospects John Carlson and Anton Gustafsson as roster players for 2010, it still doesn’t leave you with enough resources to fill out a lineup with quality players. Keep in mind these cap and salary projections are generous, too.

[...]

If any high-end or depth forward or blueliner becomes available, McPhee should pounce. Even if the asking price is a first round pick, a prized prospect like Karl Alzner, or a combination of the two, McPhee should lean toward the here-and-now side of the equation.

The only thing thing that immediately raises an eyebrow here is the absence of Karl Alzner's name in the 2010-11 discussion, though he is referenced as trade bait. As Capitals fans we may not like it, but this team is going to have to make some tough personnel decisions in the near future.

That fact alone does not mean the Capitals are doomed to mediocrity, however. The key in the post lockout NHL is obviously value per dollar, rather than total value and the easiest way to get great value for the dollar is to have young, cost-controlled players (particularly guys on their entry deals) who can come up and provide help for the big club. George McPhee and his scouting staff have done a great job of scouting and drafting recent years and the Capitals farm system has a lot of guys who stand a good chance of being, at a bare minimum, serviceable NHL players. To further that point, let's take a look at how the Capitals 2010-2011 roster might shape up if they don't move any significant assets at the trade deadline. First off, it's important to note a few things:

It is assumed Michael Nylander is bought out after the 2008-09 season. In this case, the buyout amount would be $5,666,667 and the 2010-11 cap hit would be $1,416,667.
It is also assumed Chris Clark is bought out after the 2008-09 season. The buyout amount would thus be $3,433,333 and the cap hit $858,333.
It is assumed Alexander Semin is traded for some combination of depth, prospects, and draft picks. Ultimately someone's going to have to go and Semin's penchant for bad penalties, inconsistency, and durability issues, coupled with the fact the team could get a good return on him, make him a good option.

With those caveats in mind, here's how the roster could shape up for that 2010-11 season [cap hits in italics are estimates, and we've tried to err on the side of caution, rather than giving players unreasonably small contracts]:

Forwards

Alexander Ovechkin	$9,538,462
Nicklas Backstrom	$6,250,000
Tomas Fleischmann	$3,250,000
Eric Fehr	$2,500,000
Brooks Laich	$2,066,667
Matt Bradley	$1,000,000
Jay Beagle	$920,000
Anton Gustafsson	$875,000
Boyd Gordon	$850,000
David Steckel	$850,000
Oskar Osala	$850,000
Francois Bouchard	$850,000
Chris Bourque	$725,000
Andrew Gordon	$675,000
Total (14)	$31,200,129

That's fourteen forwards (five centers, nine wings) for $31.2 million dollars. Of course, there are no sure things and the odds of guys like Francois Bouchard, Oskar Osala, and Anton Gustafsson not being ready are pretty high, but for the purposes of this discussion, that's okay. The point is that, given who the Capitals have right now, they can field a competitive groups of forwards without breaking the bank. Now we turn to...

Defensemen

Mike Green	$5,250,000
Tom Poti	$3,500,000
Jeff Schultz	$1,950,000
Karl Alzner	$1,675,000
John Erskine	$1,250,000
John Carlson	$875,000
Josh Godfrey	$845,833
Total (7)	$15,345,833

The defense corps comes in at $15.3 million. What's nice about this set of numbers is that, aside from Jeff Schultz, all these contracts are already in place and less guesswork is necessary. Of course, to round things out we have...

Goalies

Simeon Varlamov	$821,667
Michal Neuvirth	$821,667
Total (2)	$1,643,334

If the Capitals two young netminders can indeed be ready to be NHL regulars at the start of 2010-11, it would be a huge boost for the club when it comes to salary cap management.

In total we have twenty-three players, proportionally distributed among positions, coming in at $48,189,296. Add in the $2,270,000 in buyout commitments and the Capitals are looking at $50,459,296 in salary cap commitments, $4,540,704 below Fraser's guesstimate of a $55 million cap. That $4.54 million dollars is more than enough to sign decent player or two to fill out the roster in case some of the youngster don't pan out (which, realistically, is all but inevitable). It's also more than enough to sign a quality goaltender if neither Simeon Varlamov nor Michal Neuvirth is ready (or still here), to shore up depth, or to make a big splash if the team needs it. Or even to keep Alexander Semin under contract for one more season.

In short, unless the team makes some very bad personnel decision(s), the Caps should be competitive for the next several years. Sorry, Mr. Fraser - the window in Washington may be small, but that's because it's just now opening.