SB Nation - Alex Ovechkin

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 11

J.P. — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth		Didn't get much help Saturday night... and needed an awful lot the way he played. Now an ugly 0-2-0/4.56/.845 on the (NHL) season.
Jose Theodore		He'll need to be better than 1-1-0/2.97/.872 in Varly's absences, whenever they are.
Semyon Varlamov		Followed up a 26-save shutout - his second whitewashing in four starts - with a trip to the IR. On the plus side, the Caps have the luxury of being extra cautious with him... for now.

Defensemen
John Erskine		The wear and tear is wearing and tearing Erskine down to the point where he seems nearly worn and torn out.
Mike Green		The return of "Game Over" Green Friday night couldn't save a week full of turnovers and blown assignments... with Team Canada no doubt watching.
Milan Jurcina		After a minus-eight stretch in his previous six games, an even week (with a scratch thrown in) may qualify as a "good week," but the Caps need more out of Juice.
Shaone Morrisonn		Returned from injury with a zero-point, one shot on goal, minus-one week in which he averaged under 18 minutes of ice time. Sounds about right.
Brian Pothier		On injured reserve with a rib injury. It's a shame, as he was coming off a three-goal, four-assist, plus-11 November.
Tom Poti		Minus-three for the week (and that includes a plus-one in Tampa), and on the ice for six of the 12 goals the team allowed for the week.
Jeff Schultz		A plus-two week has him fourth in the League in plus/minus, and three four-block games speak further to the blueliner he's becoming.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		Scratched twice, Sloan's NHL time is running out with Laing's pending return and perhaps a recall of Karl Alzner for the blueline.

Forwards
Keith Aucoin		His most recent recall was short and relatively unproductive, which, fittingly, makes it the Keith Aucoin of recalls.
Nicklas Backstrom		Two goals, two assists, plus-four and an epic OT shift against Carolina, the "wow" moments are coming with greater frequency with each passing week.
Matt Bradley		A happy and healthy new baby gets an up arrow, especially when supplemented with a great interview.
Chris Clark		If the captain isn't contributing on the scoreboard, he's gotta be doing other things... like not letting his team put up three poor efforts in a row (including a pair against the League's two worst teams).
Eric Fehr		A goal in Tampa followed by three point-less games, Fehr will look to go from scorching hot to cold to just plain consistent.
Tomas Fleischmann		Another Cap forward looking for consistency, Flash posted a goal and three helpers this week and now has seven points in his last six games (after picking up just one in his previous six).
Alexandre Giroux		If it wasn't for Nylander's departure, Giroux being returned to Chocolatetown would qualify as great news. As it is, it's merely very good news.
Boyd Gordon		In the past two months, Gordo has played 5:55 of hockey. Sigh.
Mike Knuble		Off to a slow start since returning from the IR with a minus-three rating in two games. No doubt it takes some time to get back to game speed, but a finger injury shouldn't inhibit one's ability to crash the net.
Brooks Laich		Like his new-found mentor Knuble, Laich had no points and was minus-three for the week... but he played all four games.
Quintin Laing		Q's getting closer to returning, but when he comes back, who sits?
Brendan Morrison		No points, three shots on goal and a celebration on a puck he shot wide... ouch.
Michael Nylander		Hasta la vista, baby.
Alex Ovechkin		Returned from suspension with three multi-point games (seven points overall) and 23 shots on goal in four games.
Mathieu Perreault		Food poisoning sidelined him in Buffalo and one point in his last ten games might sideline him a little more frequently going forward. Update: Perreault has been returned to Hershey.
Alexander Semin		Two goals, three assists, plus-four and 20 shots on goal in three games, a "passenger" in the fourth. That's our Sasha!
David Steckel		Followed up his first goal of the season with no points, a minus-two rating, two shots on goal and diminishing ice time (less than ten minutes per game for the week) in four games. The face offs are still there, though (67.4% for the week).

Captain America Comes Alive. Schremp Has Risen

Derek Zona — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 20:00:18 -0000

When we last looked at Rob Schremp, he was struggling on Long Island.

Rob Schremp

#13 / Center / New York Islanders

Height: 5-11

Weight: 200

Born: Jul 01, 1986

	GP	G	A	P	EV+/- / 15	PIM	ESTOI/G	PPTOI	CORSI/15	SOG	PCT
2009 - Rob Schremp	10	1	3	4	-.757	4	10:10	1:56	-6.807	19	0.052

His even strength struggles continue as he's got one even strength point - an assist - thus far through ten games. Schremp scored his first goal as an Islander and the best part came immediately after.

I'm glad the kid is on the board and I hope that Alex Ovechkin doesn't take up Schremp's celebration -- he'll kill Mike Green.

As Dom from Lighthouse Hockey says, the entire thing was hilarious.

Sunday Caps Clips: Hockey Night Let Down

J.P. — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 14:34:53 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Browse more photos »

Your savory breakfast links:

Recaps and other assorted musings on last night's stinker from Corey (blog, article), Tarik (blog, article), Vogs, Joe B., Peerless, Ed Frankovic and Fight for Old DC.
If you didn't read Corey's blog entry from that first bullet, go back and do so now. [In The Room]
I'm not sure anyone asked, but that's never prevented Ron Wilson from offering up an opinion. [Peerless]
Ask Russians who their greatest NHLer of all-time is, and nearly one-third of them will tell you it's Alex Ovechkin (and more than half of them voted for a member of the 2008-09 Caps). [@dchesnokov]
Could Stefan Della Rovere be left off Canada's WJC team? I tend to doubt it. [SchoolYourPool]
Finally, happy 24th birthday to Andrew Gordon, happy 34th to Bates Battaglia, happy 76th to Doug Mohns... and happy 40th to the great Sergei Fedorov.

Recap: Maple Leafs 6, Caps 3

J.P. — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 03:51:26 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

Browse more photos »

[AP Recap - GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary]

As well as the Caps played over the first twenty minutes of Saturday night's 6-3 loss to Toronto, they only held a 2-0 lead heading into the first intermission, having failed to convert on at least a trio of other prime scoring opportunities (chances for Brendan Morrison, Alexander Semin and Alex Ovechkin immediately come to mind). Cash in on any of those, and maybe the Leafs go away. Convert on two or three and the rout would've been on.

That's not what happened, of course, and by the start of the second period the team's fatigue began to show (this was the Caps' third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs that included some travel headaches in between games). Before the period was six minutes old the game was tied, and only a soft Nicklas Backstrom goal nearly halfway through the period broke up a string of a half dozen consecutive Leafs goals that concluded with a tally that you'd hope Michal Neuvirth can somehow forget.

Ten more notes on the game:

The last time a Caps goalie gave up six goals in a game was the last game of last season, and Neuvirth probably had the worst sixty-minute performance by a Caps netminder since then. Yes, he had his moments, but on a night when his teammates needed him to steal a game for them - or at least keep them in it - he wasn't up to the task.
That said, he didn't get much help, as the team in front of him allowed 36 Toronto shots on goal, gave the Leafs a lengthy 5-on-3 power play (of which they only needed 17 seconds to score), and repeatedly failed to tie up opponents in front of the net.
On a positive note, the Caps' top line dominated the first half of the game, combining for all three goals, a trio of helpers and a plus-six rating. They fell off a bit after that (and Backstrom's failure to win a key draw in his own zone - or at very least to tie up Matt Stajan - led to the game-winning tally), but the Ovechkin-Backstrom duo was as good as it gets early.
It's tough to stand out amongst a group of blueliners who collectively had an awful night, but that's exactly what John Erskine did. Ersky was credited with four giveaways and a penalty, but the scoresheet doesn't even begin to tell the story of how bad he was. Dishonorable mention here goes to Mike Green, who didn't impress any Team Canada reps tonight.
Over their last three games, the Caps power play has scored once and been scored upon twice. That's not good, but neither is this: the power play is now 18.6% successful in the games AO has played and 40.6% in the eight games he's missed.
Mike Knuble and Brooks Laich were each minus-two tonight, following up a minus-one apiece Friday night. Given that Laich has one goal in his last 11 games and Knuble has only lit the lamp in one of his past eight games (which includes his time on IR, of course) and that the Caps have looked more like a one-line team over this past week, perhaps it's time to put Knuble back up on the top unit and push Alex Semin to the second line.
Backstrom's goal made him the Caps' fifth double-digit goal scorer on the season. Morrison's in the on-deck circle with nine and Eric Fehr's in the hole with eight.
No Cap played less tonight than David Steckel, who got only 9:14 of ice time (but did manage to be on the ice for three goals against... ouch).
Not to keep harping on Erskine, but given the recent schedule and the back-to-backs, why not dress Tyler Sloan in his place? At least he's got legs. Oh, Toronto's truculent. Nevermind.
No one in the game had more hits than Chris Clark's three. Really?

Over the past two nights, the Caps have played the two worst teams in the entire NHL (point-wise, at least), and they needed overtime to beat one at home and got beaten handily by the other on the road. And yet there they still sit atop the League standings. Funny what can happen on any given weekend in the NHL...

Game highlights:

Cammalleri's Sights Set On Richer's Mark

Robert L — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 18:04:52 -0000

Translated from an article by Marc - Antoine Godin in Wednesday's La Presse

Alex Kovalev reached a peak in popularity two seasons ago during a campaign in which he scored 35 goals. Time moves on, and l'artiste's spot in the fans' heart has been taken up by Mike Cammalleri. While Kovalev is soul searching in Ottawa, Cammalleri has definitely found his game with the Canadiens. In fact, he is in the process of becoming a fan favorite.

Last Tuesday, Cammalleri scored his 17th goal in his 31st game. He is on pace to net 45 goals this season. Such a feat hasn't been seen since Stephane Richer counted 51 goals.....20 years ago!

With the exception of Kovalev in 2007-08, Cammalleri's production places him in the company of players from another generation, a generation that skated on Bell Centre ice on December 4th.

To illustrate the point, after 30 games Cammalleri had scored 30 goals. One must return to the 1995-96 season for a comparable, when Pierre Turgeon and Vincent Damphousse each totalled 14 goals after 29 games.

Case in point, no player since Damphousse in 1993-94 has hit the 40 goal mark,

Cammalleri would be putting an end to quite a drought should he stay on pace and surpass that feat.

For now, Cammalleri can aim to be the first Habs player since Bobby Smith in 1988 to reach the 20 goal plateau by Christmas.

In past seasons, Cammalleri had a habit of scoring roughly 50% of his goals on the powerplay. This season has been an anomaly, with 14 of 17 coming at even strength. Across the NHL, only Alex Ovechkin (15) has scored more often 5 on 5.

That's all good and well, but as most goal scorers tend to produce in patches and sequences, Cammalleri is keeping his feet on the ground. Coach Martin as well.

"In addition to the goals scored, it is hoped that he continues to play well," Martin says. "A player cannot control how many pucks go in, but he does have control over the chances he is getting. For now, Mike is on a roll, he's playing well and working hard at both ends of the rink."

In all fairness, it should be noted that Cammalleri has greatly contributed to the success enjoyed by Tomas Plekanec this season. The two players are in the process of developing some nice complicity, at even strength and on the power play. The qualities of each player compliments the other.

"I really appreciate playing with Tomas, he's playing some extraordinary hockey at the moment," Cammalleri says. "He brings many things to the team and he is very gifted. Among other things, he's a very strong passer. In addition, he's doing excellent work on the penalty kill. He's probably one of the most underestimated players in the league, but something tells me that won't be the case for long."

Should present tendencies continue to bear fruit, the Canadiens will place two players, Plekanec and Cammalleri, in the top 30 scorers in the league. That is a feat that has not been seen since 1996-97, when Damphousse and Mark Recchi hit for 81 and 80 respectively.

Cammalleri was much more talkative in regards to team success than he was in regards to personal achievements. Prior to facing the Penguins on Thursday, the Canadiens were on an odd sort of streak, having outscored the opposition 12-3 in three wins while being outshot 89 - 69 in those games.

Despite giving their foes 18 power play chances, the Canadiens responded with 3 power play goals of their own.

The duo of Cammalleri and Plekanec is going fulltilt, special teams are having their say and both goaltenders have put in strong performances. What excites Cammalleri most is that the team if finding ways to win.

"What is preferable, losing a game when you've played very well or a win that looks it wasn't particularly deserved?," asked the 27 year-old winger. "Personally, I'll take the ugly win, because in theleast it gives us a chance to build upon something positive while reminding us that there is room for improvement."

40 goal scorers on the Canadiens over the last 25 years

51 Stéphane Richer (1989-1990)

50 Stéphane Richer (1987-1988)

43 Mats Naslund (1985-1986)

42 Mats Naslund (1984-1985)

40 Vincent Damphousse (1993-1994)

40 Brian Bellows (1992-1993)

Also, check out the Gazette's Jack Todd's plea for Cammalleri's inclusion on the Olympic Team Canada.

Saturday Caps Clips: Game Over Green Returns; Caps @ Maple Leafs Game Day

J.P. — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 14:37:55 -0000

via the shoebox next to my desk

View full size photo »

Your savory breakfast links:

Recaps and other assorted musings on last night's "Mike Green giveth and Mike Green taketh away" win from Corey (blog, article), Tarik (blog, article), Vogs, Washington Examiner, Joe B., Peerless, Ed Frankovic, Fight for Old DC, Canes Country and Red and Black Hockey.
Preview of tonight's Caps/Leafs game (a rematch of a Hockey Night in Canada loss from three weeks back) from NHL.com, and be sure to check out our SB Nation partner (and e-BFFs) Pension Plan Puppets for the very best coverage from the other side of tonight's match up.
The Caps apparently had some plane troubles last night and flew to Toronto early this morning as a result. [@GreenLife52]
"If most of us could catch [Alex Ovechkin], he would be a target," [Leafs blueliner Garnet] Exelby cracks. "But in reality, he is getting away with [the way he plays], and you're right -- you live by the sword -- you die by the sword. Eventually guys are going to have enough of that type of player." 348 games and counting... and we're still waiting, Ex. [National Post]
Great stuff from "behind the scenes" of Hockey Night in Canada in preparation of tonight's match up. [CBC]
"When the schedule came out, we certainly saw that [stretch] and said, 'Wow, [having the Capitals on Hockey Night in Canada four times in five weeks] will be great,' " HNIC producer Doug Walton said. "Anytime you get the schedule, you look for the all-Canadian matchups, and you look for Pittsburgh and Washington, so we recognized this pretty early." Memo to NBC: Not mentioned? Philadelphia. [National Post]
Another "no" vote for Green for Team Canada. [SI.com]
Did Matt Bradley just call Alexander Semin what I think he called Alexander Semin? [FanShot]
Speaking of Semin, Bruce Boudreau admits regarding his enigmatic Russian that sometimes he wants "to use a stick and beat him over the head with it." [Examiner]
Russ Thaler on what Ted Leonsis owning the Wizards might mean for the Caps. [CSN Washington]
More from AO's "Men's Journal" shoot. [Alex Ovetjkin]

Pick 'Em: Best Capitals Draft Pick of the Decade

David M. Getz — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 18:00:27 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

View full size photo »

Readers who venture outside the friendly internet confines of the the Rink may have noticed that, in anticipation of ~~the end of the decade~~ 2010, Puck Daddy has been compiling the best and worst of the last decade, including the ten biggest goon moments, the best and worst contracts, and NHL's best and worst decisions. Yesterday saw Ryan Lambert of The Two Line Pass take a look at the five best and five worst draft picks of the last ten years.

Being a Capitals blog we figured it would make for some interesting discussion to ~~pilfer the idea~~ alter their framework every so slightly to suit our favorite team and take a look at some of studs and duds of recent Washington draft classes. To make things a little more interesting, we decided to eliminate lottery picks, which in essence means no Alex Ovechkin, no Nicklas Backstrom, and no Karl Alzner.

To start things off, let's take a look at the five worst:

5. Jakub Cutta (Defense, 2nd round, 61st overall, 2000)

Cutta was billed as a guy with an ideal frame, but a project nonetheless. At the time of his draft people knew there were questions about his skating, his ability to move the puck out of the zone at the next level, and whether he would ever use his 6'3'', 214 frame as effectively as possible. The problem was, nothing ever really panned out. The skating never became NHL caliber, there wasn't any offense to speak of as a pro, and while Cutta laid out a big hit every once in a while, he was far from an intimidating physical force. All told Cutta saw action in eight games over the course of three seasons with the Caps, earning himself a minus-5 rating. By 2006 Cutta would be back in his native Czech Republic, and he's been splitting time between his homeland and Russia for the past few years. It's not always fair to look back and evaluate a pick using 20/20 hindsight, but the fact that Paul Martin was taken with the 62nd pick certainly doesn't make this one any easier to swallow.

4. Josh Godfrey (Defense, 2nd round, 34th overall, 2007)

Yeah, it's still early, but thing don't look very good for Godfrey, who's now in his second season with the ECHL's South Carolina Stingrays. Part of us wants to say that the blue line is stacked at Hershey, that Godfrey's still young, and that he was drafted as an offensive defenseman who would have to spend a lot of time working out the kinks in his own end before he had a chance at the NHL. Another part of us says that guys who spend more than one season in the ECHL don't usually do much at the NHL level - and that's not enough for someone picked 34th overall. The fact that, other than Kings prospects Wayne Simmonds and Oscar Moller, no one picked after Godfrey has seen much NHL playing time helps keep him from rising on this list - for now.

3. Keith Seabrook (Defense, 2nd round, 52nd overall, 2006)

Also an offensive defenseman, the Capitals were hoping Seabrook would one day be a powerplay quarterback, or at least an offensive threat from the blue line. However, Seabrook underwhelmed offensively, first by scoring 13 points (two goals) in 37 games at the University of Denver and then by scoring 17 (four goals) in 59 games with the WHL's Calgary Hitmen - all while failing to make marked progress in his own end. In 2008-09 Seabrook finally became the offensive force people thought he was capable of being by registering 55 points (fifteen goals) for the Hitmen, but questions persisted about whether it was because he was growing in to his talent or because he was an overage player. Currently in the Calgary Flames organization, Seabrook still has a chance to become an NHL player, but never came close to getting a contract, let alone a game, with the Caps.

2. Joe Finley (Defense, 1st round, 27th overall, 2005)

The Caps would eventually sign Finley in the summer of 2009, but his future seems to be up in the air. After playing as a forward in camp, Finley's back on the blue line with South Carolina this season. If Finley ever makes it to the NHL, it's almost certainly going to be in a limited role as an enforcer...and you don't aim to draft a part-time enforcer in the first round. 36 of the first 45 players taken in the 2005 draft have played in the NHL, and has four of the five and seven of the ten taken after Finley. The issue at this point wasn't the talent pool. It was the selection.

1. Sasha Pokulok (Defense, 1st round, 14th overall, 2005)

How could it be anyone else? There's no way the Caps should have been picking 14th in 2005, but they sure didn't do themselves any favors in picking Pokulok. Billed as a physical specimen with skating ability and offensive upside, Pokulok was beset by concussion problems each of his three years in the Capitals organization. In the end, Pokulok wasn't able to stick in Hershey, let alone Washington, earning himself the dubious (and unfortunate) title of "Worst Capitals Pick of the Decade".

Honorable Mentions: Steve Eminger, Ted Ruth, Maxime Daigneault, Boyd Gordon

Now that that's over, let's take a look at the five best:

5. John Carlson (Defense, 1st round, 27th overall, 2008)

He's played just three games at the NHL level thus far, but is there any reason to think Carlson won't be a very, very good NHL defender? With size, skill, and smarts he's bested every challenge thrown his way since the draft, finishing second in the OHL in scoring among defensemen and second among rookies last year, and registering 18 points in 24 games for the Bears this year. Carlson may very well be a top pairing guy in the very near future, and in a league that prizes two way defensemen as highly as the NHL does that's a heck of a return on the 27th pick.

4. Johnny Oduya (Defense, 7th round, 221st overall, 2001)

Hey, we said these guys were going to be Capitals draftees, we never said anything about whether the team signed him. With only one point and an minus-1 rating, Oduya's slumping this year but he's nonetheless a legitimate top-four guy defenseman in the NHL, something that can only be said for a handful of the 200 players taken before him.

3. Alexander Semin (Left Wing/Right Wing, 13th overall, 2002)

At September's Capitals Convention members of the team's scouting staff were insistent they'd been lucky with Semin, who has grown three inches and added thirty-five pounds since the time he was drafted. Even if there was some luck involved, Semin is a elite offensive player who may just be the most naturally talented guy in the NHL. Picking thirteenth overall you expect to get an NHL caliber player - but getting a guy with Semin's ability in that spot is a steal. He might not have the career top 2002 pick Rich Nash will, be there's no doubt Semin was the most talented player available at the this spot - and your GM picking that guy is all you can ask for.

2. Semyon Varlamov (Goalie, 23rd overall, 2006)

We'd be lying if we said there wasn't a part of us that was still scared Semyon Varlamov was going to burn out (insert obligatory Jim Carey reference here), but what he's doing at his age, well, that just doesn't happen very often. The Capitals get credit here for being willing to use their first round pick to take a netminder in what was regarded as a weak draft between the pipes. The next time you want to criticize George McPhee for going off the board, remember that sometimes the risk pays off.

1. Mike Green (Defense, 29th overall, 2004)

Twenty-ninth overall isn't exactly scraping the bottom of the barrel, but no one expected this. Fifty-one goals and 159 points in his last 180 games, a historically great season, a Norris Trophy nomination at age 23, and comparisons to Paul Coffey would make Green a great pick just about anywhere, but at the end of the first round it's practically criminal. Thank the Lord the Stars saw something they liked in Mark Fistric.

Honorable Mentions: Mathieu Perreault, Oskar Osala, Braden Holtby

While the issue of the worst draft pick seems pretty cut-and-dry (seriously, if anyone thinks it's someone other than Pokulok, we'd love to hear why), the best pick is up for debate - and we want to know what you think. Vote in the poll, and let us know who you picked in the comments section.

Poll

So, who's the best Capitals draft pick of the decade?

(Past) Time to Re-Write the Diving Rule

J.P. — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Browse more photos »

Late in the second period of Wednesday night's loss to Buffalo, Alex Ovechkin was spun around and down by the Sabres' Derek Roy. The call? Tripping on Roy... and diving on Ovechkin (his fourth career diving penalty). No doubt, this prompted a chorus of voices in Western New York and the D.C. metropolitan area asking the same question: "How can it be both a trip and a dive?"

The answer to that is pretty simple - a player can embellish what would otherwise be called a foul and thus there are two separate penalties on the play (Rules 57 and 64, in case you're curious).

The problem, however, is in the application of the diving call. Rather than being used to dissuade the embarrassing infraction that it seeks to address, the penalty seems to be used by officials to "even-up" marginal calls. If the League was serious about penalizing diving, you'd think that it would most often appear as a single infraction, one that puts the offending team on the penalty kill. But instead, what we see most often are coincidental minors (like Roy/Ovechkin) that send the exact wrong message to the diver: go ahead and embellish - you'll either get the call or, at worst, you'll be headed off with a member of the opposing team.

Putting some numbers to the observations, Gabe Desjardins over at Behind the Net looked at all of the diving calls over the past two seasons and found that 88% of them were accompanied by an off-setting penalty (most often tripping, hooking or interference). Put another way, less than one out of every eight dives that are called truly penalize the diver's team. That's a pretty staggering number.

When the NHL codified its current rule against diving, they no doubt had the best of intentions. But if they truly want to remove this shameful behavior from the game, they need to go back to the drawing board and replace what they've got with the obvious and simple solution: have a dive negate any initial infraction. You'll see a lot more players staying up on their skates, making the game easier to call... and silencing those who don't understand how there can be a trip and a dive on the same play.

Friday Caps Clips: Hurricanes @ Caps Game Day

J.P. — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:47:25 -0000

More photos » by Gary Malerba - AP

Browse more photos »

Your savory breakfast links:

Previews of tonight's rematch of last week's Caps win from Vogs, CSN Washington, NHL.com, Peerless and Rock The Red.net, and be sure to check out our SB Nation partner Canes Country for coverage from the other side of tonight's match up.
A look at the Caps' intra-divisional dominance. [Washington Post]
Semyon Varlamov has been placed on injured reserve and is thus unavailable for this weekend's back-to-back games. [Washington Examiner]
It was blue collar/fan fave day on the Bog yesterday, with great stuff on Matt Bradley and Quintin Laing. [D.C. Sports Bog, D.C. Sports Bog]
Eric Fehr gets some major fantasy love (hey now) and a comparison to a guy who played more than a thousand NHL games. I'll take the under. [Dobber Hockey]
Jim Kelley answers his critics (more or less). Time to move on... [SI.com]
... to another MSM smakedown! [BanginPanger]
Crosby vs. Ovechkin: The Infomercial. [Puck Daddy]
Plenty of Caps stuff in the Post's special "Best of the Decade" section. [Washington Post]
Alex Ovechkin can be romantically linked to Megan Fox in just five degrees of separation (passing through Paris Hilton along the way, of course, as she's the Springfield Interchange of such connections), though "dated" is likely overstating that first link. [Who's Dated Who via The Cult of Hockey]
Apparently AO and Mike Green are not currently "among the best in the game." Um, okay. [ESPN]
Gabby, reviewed. [Montreal Gazette]
Delly leaves Barrie for Team Canada. [Barrie Examiner]
Per the HHoF, on this date back in 1981, "Washington's Dennis Maruk scored twice and added four assists, and rookie Chris Valentine had a goal and four assists in the Capitals' 11-2 win against the visiting Toronto Maple Leafs. It was Maruk's second six point game in a week!"
Finally, (again, per the HHoF), on this date back in 1992, "National Hockey League Governors named Gary Bettman as the first NHL Commissioner in league history, effective Feb. 1, 1993." Happy Anniversary!

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.