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Capital Ups and Downs: Week 12

J.P. — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 16:00:20 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth		Quietly solid in a huge bounce-back win in Edmonton.
Jose Theodore		A good game and a not-as-good game, but just two even strength goals against and 1-1-0/2.02/.917 week are solid numbers.
Semyon Varlamov		Sounded close to returning before a hopefully minor setback.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner		Plus-two for the week and victimized by a bad bounce in Edmonton, Alzner's development should continue to benefit from being paired with the likes of John Erskine and Tyler Sloan. Ahem.
John Erskine		A monster night in Colorado (assist, plus-three rating and 17 penalty minutes earned for sticking up for Mike Green), tougher time in Vancouver and a scratch in Edmonton.
Mike Green		Just one assist and six shots on goal for the week. Of course, he did miss half of the Colorado game because he forced David Koci to skate halfway across the ice and board him. Bad Greenie.
Milan Jurcina		Scratched twice, looked hungrier against Edmonton, leading the team in hits.
Shaone Morrisonn		Missed most of the Colorado game, returned to lead the team in hits against Vancouver, back out of the lineup Saturday night. Hmm...
Brian Pothier		Despite seven points from blueliners this week, the Caps miss his puck-moving ability on the back-end.
Tom Poti		Three games, plus-three rating, but a whopping four third period penalties (at least one in each game), including an inexcusable unsportsmanlike in Vancouver.
Jeff Schultz		Want a microcosm of Schultz's career? Look no further than this week - a couple of memorable bloopers but a great job shutting down the Sedins and a positive plus-minus (though it should be noted that he was on the ice for four of the six goals the Caps allowed in the three games).

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		Scratched twice, returned and notched an assist on the insurance tally Saturday night, but let's be honest - his NHL time is running out.

Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom		A couple of goals, an assist, a plus-one rating and nine shots on goal and 57% in the dot are all nice, but he's got to take some of the blame for a power play that was just 1-for-9 on the week.
Matt Bradley		A goal, an assist and a plus-two rating in Colorado highlight the week for a guy who's two-thirds of the way to tying his single-season best in goals.
Chris Clark		A Gordie Howe Hat Trick (ok, it took him three games to get it), an extra assist and a plus-three rating. Good stuff, Cap.
Eric Fehr		A couple of helpers and a plus-three rating for the week are nice, but Fehr has gone six games without a goal and only had five shots on goal for the week. Go to the net, young man.
Tomas Fleischmann		Three goals on the week (including Saturday night's game-winner), but a bad penalty in Edmonton and being on the ice for half of the goals the team allowed in the three games take a bit of the shine off.
Boyd Gordon		On a conditioning assignment in Hershey, Gordo's return looks imminent.
Mike Knuble		With a goal and an assist, Knuble seems to be getting his timing back.
Brooks Laich		Another week passes without Laich finding the net, something he's only done once in his last 15 games (and his assist in Vancouver is his only point in his last seven games).
Quintin Laing		Q ate a steak this week and played an NHL game - he gets an up arrow.
Brendan Morrison		Just one assist on the week, his only point in the last seven games (oddly coinciding with Alex Ovechkin's return to the lineup).
Alex Ovechkin		Every now and then (weekly, usually), you're reminded why AO is the best player in the game. Saturday night's third period was one such reminder.
Alexander Semin		Beat Roberto Luongo on a knuckler from near Whistler on Friday night, but was stuffed on a penalty shot later in the game and didn't find his way onto the score sheet for the rest of the week (despite being on the ice for all three goals the top line scored on Saturday night).
David Steckel		A goal, plus-three rating and 7:59 of short-handed ice time without being on for a goal against. Can't ask for much more from the guy, can you?
Kyle Wilson		Made his NHL debut on his 25th birthday with two assists and a strong all-around game. Wasn't as good in Vancouver, was scratched in Edmonton, then reassigned to Hershey, but he looks like yet another fine fill-in. He'll be back.

A Look at The Capitals' Blueline

J.P. — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

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When Karl Alzner was recalled yesterday, he brought the total number of defensemen on the Caps' NHL roster to a whopping nine. Even with Brian Pothier out of the lineup with a rib injury and Tyler Sloan getting a lot of his minutes up front (when he gets a sweater, that is), there's a logjam on the blueline which must be resolved, especially if the Caps are going to eventually spend some of those sweet, sweet Nylander bucks on a new (to them) rearguard.

As this unit is viewed generally as the team's Achilles heel, the decision of who stays and who goes is all the more important, so let's take a look at some of the numbers through 33 games. First, stats at five-on-five, ranked by plus-minus per sixty minutes (GP - games played; QC - Quality of Competition; QT - Quality of Teammates; Pts/60 - Points per sixty minutes; GFON/60 - team goals for per sixty minutes; GAON/60 - team goals against per sixty minutes; +/-ON/60 - GFON/60 minus GAON/60; Corsi - Corsi rating; Pen+/- - Penalty plus minus per sixty minutes):

	GP	QC	QT	Pts/60	GFON/60	GAON/60	+/-ON/60	Corsi	Pen+/-
Jeff Schultz	26	.040	.402	1.05	3.44	1.35	2.09	10.4	-0.1
John Erskine	21	-.078	.157	0.39	3.11	1.17	1.94	-5.0	-0.6
Brian Pothier	28	-.079	.273	0.98	3.23	1.41	1.83	-2.2	-0.5
Mike Green	32	-.013	.180	1.69	4.06	2.48	1.58	8.1	-0.2
Tom Poti	27	.139	-.200	0.56	2.93	2.37	0.56	0.3	0.0
Milan Jurcina	25	.106	-.178	0.66	2.47	2.64	-0.16	-4.8	-1.0
Tyler Sloan*	20	.009	-.310	0.77	2.06	2.32	-0.26	-13.2	-0.7
Shaone Morrisonn	24	-.017	.372	0.34	2.71	3.22	-0.51	-8.2	-0.5
Karl Alzner	5	-.028	-.380	1.68	1.68	3.35	-1.68	-23.3	-1.7

Some of these numbers are surprising - first and foremost the fact that John Erskine has the lowest GAON/60 of the group and how bad Alzner's numbers are (albeit in an extremely small sample). Some aren't as surprising - Mike Green has the highest GFON/60 and Jeff Schultz is leading the way in plus-minus, even though he's playing tough competition. In fact, Schultz has the best five-on-five plus-minus per sixty in the entire NHL among blueliners who have played at least ten games... and Erskine and Pothier round out the top three, respectively, with Green not far behind.

As for Erskine's numbers (and Pothier's, for that matter), you can see that he has been somewhat hidden (more or less tied for the weakest competition) and his Corsi shows he's been somewhat lucky to be on the right side of the plus-minus ledger. Anyway, there's plenty there for discussion in the comments, but let's move on.

Next up - just a couple of four-on-five numbers, ranked by goals against per sixty minutes (TOI/60 - time on ice per sixty minutes):

	TOI/60	GAON/60
Brian Pothier	0.56	3.81
Karl Alzner	2.51	4.77
Milan Jurcina	2.40	4.99
Mike Green	2.09	5.39
Jeff Schultz	2.44	5.68
Shaone Morrisonn	1.87	6.69
Tom Poti	3.51	9.49
John Erskine	1.38	12.44
Tyler Sloan*	0.64	23.62

It's no secret that the Caps' penalty kill has struggled, and part of the reason is that a couple of their supposed defensive stalwarts - Shaone Morrisonn and Tom Poti - haven't been getting the job done. Erskine has become nearly unplayable down a man (and his minutes reflect that - only two defensemen in the League have a worse GAON/60), and no one with a decent sample size is really distinguishing himself here, save perhaps Milan Jurcina. Granted, a few saves here and there could help these numbers out, but the blueliners have to help out their netminders as well.

Finally, some general numbers, ranked by games played (TOI - time on ice per game; Hits - hits; BkS - blocked shots; TkA - takeaways; GvA - giveaways; GvA/60 - giveaways per sixty minutes of ice time T-G/60 - takeaways minus giveaways per sixty minutes of ice time):

	GP	TOI	Hits	BkS	TkA	GvA	GvA/60	T-A/60
Mike Green	32	25:05	47	50	14	30	2.24	-1.20
Brian Pothier	28	17:47	34	40	11	14	1.45	-0.31
Tom Poti	27	21:31	10	39	16	14	1.69	0.24
Jeff Schultz	26	18:47	24	47	4	16	1.96	-1.47
Milan Jurcina	25	17:32	43	37	3	12	1.64	-1.23
Shaone Morrisonn	24	17:14	50	39	4	11	1.59	-1.01
John Erskine	21	16:44	44	22	4	19	3.24	-2.56
Tyler Sloan*	20	12:32	26	16	2	11	2.63	-2.15
Karl Alzner	5	18:12	3	6	0	1	0.66	-0.66

A few more interesting numbers here, especially those last two, which measure puck possession and protection. Sure, Green turns the puck over with maddening frequency, but not nearly as often per minute as Erskine. Add in Green's takeaways, and he looks even ~~less bad~~ better.

Again, there's a lot of data in these tables, but, taken together, they paint a pretty good picture of where the Caps' blueline is at the moment, and who are the likely - and deserving - candidates to go when room needs to be made.

* Sloan's statistics include time spent at forward. Simple stats via NHL.com, advanced stats via Behind the Net.

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 11

J.P. — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth		Didn't get much help Saturday night... and needed an awful lot the way he played. Now an ugly 0-2-0/4.56/.845 on the (NHL) season.
Jose Theodore		He'll need to be better than 1-1-0/2.97/.872 in Varly's absences, whenever they are.
Semyon Varlamov		Followed up a 26-save shutout - his second whitewashing in four starts - with a trip to the IR. On the plus side, the Caps have the luxury of being extra cautious with him... for now.

Defensemen
John Erskine		The wear and tear is wearing and tearing Erskine down to the point where he seems nearly worn and torn out.
Mike Green		The return of "Game Over" Green Friday night couldn't save a week full of turnovers and blown assignments... with Team Canada no doubt watching.
Milan Jurcina		After a minus-eight stretch in his previous six games, an even week (with a scratch thrown in) may qualify as a "good week," but the Caps need more out of Juice.
Shaone Morrisonn		Returned from injury with a zero-point, one shot on goal, minus-one week in which he averaged under 18 minutes of ice time. Sounds about right.
Brian Pothier		On injured reserve with a rib injury. It's a shame, as he was coming off a three-goal, four-assist, plus-11 November.
Tom Poti		Minus-three for the week (and that includes a plus-one in Tampa), and on the ice for six of the 12 goals the team allowed for the week.
Jeff Schultz		A plus-two week has him fourth in the League in plus/minus, and three four-block games speak further to the blueliner he's becoming.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		Scratched twice, Sloan's NHL time is running out with Laing's pending return and perhaps a recall of Karl Alzner for the blueline.

Forwards
Keith Aucoin		His most recent recall was short and relatively unproductive, which, fittingly, makes it the Keith Aucoin of recalls.
Nicklas Backstrom		Two goals, two assists, plus-four and an epic OT shift against Carolina, the "wow" moments are coming with greater frequency with each passing week.
Matt Bradley		A happy and healthy new baby gets an up arrow, especially when supplemented with a great interview.
Chris Clark		If the captain isn't contributing on the scoreboard, he's gotta be doing other things... like not letting his team put up three poor efforts in a row (including a pair against the League's two worst teams).
Eric Fehr		A goal in Tampa followed by three point-less games, Fehr will look to go from scorching hot to cold to just plain consistent.
Tomas Fleischmann		Another Cap forward looking for consistency, Flash posted a goal and three helpers this week and now has seven points in his last six games (after picking up just one in his previous six).
Alexandre Giroux		If it wasn't for Nylander's departure, Giroux being returned to Chocolatetown would qualify as great news. As it is, it's merely very good news.
Boyd Gordon		In the past two months, Gordo has played 5:55 of hockey. Sigh.
Mike Knuble		Off to a slow start since returning from the IR with a minus-three rating in two games. No doubt it takes some time to get back to game speed, but a finger injury shouldn't inhibit one's ability to crash the net.
Brooks Laich		Like his new-found mentor Knuble, Laich had no points and was minus-three for the week... but he played all four games.
Quintin Laing		Q's getting closer to returning, but when he comes back, who sits?
Brendan Morrison		No points, three shots on goal and a celebration on a puck he shot wide... ouch.
Michael Nylander		Hasta la vista, baby.
Alex Ovechkin		Returned from suspension with three multi-point games (seven points overall) and 23 shots on goal in four games.
Mathieu Perreault		Food poisoning sidelined him in Buffalo and one point in his last ten games might sideline him a little more frequently going forward. Update: Perreault has been returned to Hershey.
Alexander Semin		Two goals, three assists, plus-four and 20 shots on goal in three games, a "passenger" in the fourth. That's our Sasha!
David Steckel		Followed up his first goal of the season with no points, a minus-two rating, two shots on goal and diminishing ice time (less than ten minutes per game for the week) in four games. The face offs are still there, though (67.4% for the week).

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 10

J.P. — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs (and yeah, we've used this picture before, but it's so nice it deserved to be used twice):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Jose Theodore		After having not played in more than two weeks, Theo came back strong with a pair of road wins, a 2.00 GAA and a .947 save percentage for the week. The better he is this winter, the fresher Varly will be in the spring.
Semyon Varlamov		Seemed to lose his concentration a bit late against Florida, but 1-0-0/2.01/.929 keeps the train rollin'.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner		Was on the ice for four of the six goals the Caps allowed last week. With the blueline getting healthier, Alzner once again finds himself the odd-man out - and on his way back to Hershey.
John Erskine		A plus-four rating for the week and not on the ice for a single goal against in 51:38 of ice time, which included 5:37 shorthanded.
Mike Green		Five points and a plus-four rating in three games, including four power play points on a unit that has scored seven times in the last two games.
Milan Jurcina		How do you end up with a minus-two rating for a week in which your team outscored its opponents 17-6? By being on the ice for five of those six goals against.
Shaone Morrisonn		On the trip to Tampa, so perhaps his return to the lineup is near.
Brian Pothier		Plus-two against Carolina, scratched against Philly. Huh.
Tom Poti		Returned to the lineup against the Flyers with twenty minutes of ice time and a pair of assists.
Jeff Schultz		Plus-three for the week, Jeff Cincocinco has only had two minus games since October 17 and is now in the top ten in the League in plus-minus (and is 12th among NHL blueliners in the stat since the start of the 2007-08 season).

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		A penalty in each of this week's three games, two of which were coincidental minors and one of which occurred with the Caps on the power play.

Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom		Four goals, five assists and a plus-four rating in three games including a five-point game in Philly.
Matt Bradley		Scored his fifth goal of the season against Florida, equaling his goal total from a season ago, and took one for the team in a big way on Saturday night.
Chris Clark		A goal and an assist on the week, The Captain now has half as many goals and is one helper short of his production over the previous two seasons combined. Of course, that's not saying much... other than that Clark is finally healthy.
Eric Fehr		Five points in three games, a six-game scoring streak (multi-point games in three of four), and 13 points in 13 games since returning from injury.
Tomas Fleischmann		Three goals in his last two games, he now has eight tallies in games which AO has been out of the lineup and just two when the Great Eight has dressed. Solution? Scratch him when AO's a go. Just kidding. Sorta.
Alexandre Giroux		Ten shots on goal in the last two games, a plus-three rating and a helper in Carolina... but really, we've seen more than enough.
Boyd Gordon		Looking more and more like a lost season for Gordo.
Mike Knuble		Targeting a Wednesday return, but the way the team's playing, no need to rush.
Brooks Laich		Three points, including a couple on the power play as Laich became the fourth Cap to hit double-digits in goals on the season (no other team has more than three, and several teams don't have a single 10-goal guy yet).
Quintin Laing		Getting closer, which might spell the end of Tyler Sloan's time in D.C.
Brendan Morrison		Four points on the week and more points on the campaign than he had in 62 games for the Ducks a season ago.
Michael Nylander		If Nylander was a classic SNL skit, I'm pretty sure he'd be this one.
Alex Ovechkin		Just one goal in the three games the Caps played last week- anyone hear anything to explain why his production was so limited?
Mathieu Perreault		Seven games without a point (granted, his linemates haven't been the type with which skill pivots normally succeed), but he's still doing some things... little things.
Alexander Semin		Has returned to the lineup with six points in two games, including four on the red-hot power play. Key stat: the power play is 30.3% successful in Semin's twenty games played and at just 9.1% in the nine he's missed.
David Steckel		The monkey's off his back... now let's see some more.

2010 Winter Olympics: Capitals Hopefuls

J.P. — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:00:15 -0000

via photobucket.com

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With the Olympics barely two months away, let's take a look at which Caps can expect - and hope - to hear their names called when rosters are announced later this month:

Pack Your Bags

Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin (Russia)

Ovechkin has represented Russia in at least 80 international matches (including eight in the 2006 Turin Olympics), and Semin brings another 50 games of international experience to the table. The two were instrumental in Russia's gold medal win on Canadian soil in the 2008 IIHF World Championship, both finishing in the top six in the tourney in scoring. The only thing that can keep the pair from hunting for a loonie to dig out of the ice in Vancouver is injury.

Nicklas Backstrom (Sweden)

Only three Swedish NHLers have more points than Backstrom since the Caps pivot made his NHL debut, and he'll play an important role in Sweden's bid to repeat as Olympic champs.

Fairly Safe Bets

Milan Jurcina (Slovakia)

Jurcina's size and durability should make him an Olympian for the second time.

On the Bubble

Mike Green (Canada)

It doesn't get much more bubblicious than Green, whose defensive lapses may prove too much for Steve Yzerman to handle in a single elimination tournament, especially given other, safer puck-moving Canadian blueliners. Is a high-risk/high-reward pick a guy the Canadians are willing to put out on the ice before the home crowd?

Tomas Fleischmann (Czech Republic)

Flash was looking a lot better a few weeks ago and may be a bit one-dimensional for this type of team, but he's still got a shot at making the Czech squad - he's actually eighth among Czech NHL goal scorers over the past two seasons. Ales Hemsky's injury couldn't have hurt his chances either.

Semyon Varlamov (Russia)

Vladislav Tretiak said recently that "It will be difficult for Varlamov because Bryzgalov is playing unbelievable, Nabokov is playing unbelievable, it's a big competition. I told him today he has a chance, because three goalies will come to the Olympic Games." Tretiak also said that he expects his team to be a 50/50 mix of NHLers and KHLers. But if Russia was smart and looking ahead to Sochi in 2014 (as we know they are), they'd bring Varly along for the ride.

Long Shots

Michael Nylander (Sweden)

If Nylander were over in Russia right now lighting up the KHL, he'd have a chance to represent his country in Vancouver in February. Add one more regret to his 2009-10 season.

Oskar Osala (Finland)

Picking Osala would be a surprise pick, to be sure, but as far as long-term investments go, this could be one worth making for the Finns.

The NHL's top defensive defencemen

James Mirtle — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 02:56:24 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

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As with the top defensive forwards list, this is the same Rod Langway Award business I've been putting out for a couple years now. It ranks players defensively based on (a) quality of competition at even strength, (b) goals against per minute played at even strength and (c) goals against per minute played on the penalty kill.

Players also have to have played at least 15 games and fill a significant role on their team's shorthanded unit. Credit, as always, to Behind The Net for the data.

Here are the top 25 a little past the quarter-way mark:

	NAME	TEAM	GP	QCMP	EVGA/60	SHGA/60
1	CHRIS PRONGER	PHI	24	0.12	1.38	4.41
2	DUNCAN KEITH	CHI	25	0.14	1.59	4.12
3	JAY BOUWMEESTER	CGY	26	0.08	1.39	4.51
4	ROMAN POLAK	STL	24	0.12	1.71	5.06
5	PAVEL KUBINA	ATL	23	0.06	1.71	3.38
6	MIKE MOTTAU	N.J	23	0.09	1.69	5.00
7	COLIN WHITE	N.J	24	0.11	2.06	4.63
8	JEFF SCHULTZ	WSH	20	0.09	1.38	6.08
9	NICK LIDSTROM	DET	26	0.08	2.15	3.83
10	MIKE WEAVER	STL	23	0.03	1.12	4.38
11	BRENT SEABROOK	CHI	23	0.17	1.50	6.84
12	M-E VLASIC	S.J	28	0.13	2.51	3.01
13	ROB BLAKE	S.J	17	0.18	2.58	3.85
14	ED JOVANOVSKI	PHX	18	0.08	2.35	1.24
15	MILAN JURCINA	WSH	20	0.16	2.26	5.60
16	NIKLAS HJALMARSSON	CHI	25	0.04	1.56	5.02
17	ANDY SUTTON	NYI	26	0.08	1.60	6.26
18	ZBYNEK MICHALEK	PHX	17	0.07	1.92	5.53
19	ZDENO CHARA	BOS	26	0.23	2.65	4.97
20	RADEK MARTINEK	NYI	16	0.10	1.81	6.47
21	DARRYL SYDOR	STL	18	0.05	1.19	6.75
22	CHRISTIAN EHRHOFF	VAN	26	-0.06	1.31	3.52
23	GREG ZANON	MIN	24	0.06	1.81	6.31
24	JOSH GORGES	MTL	26	-0.05	1.39	3.91
25	WILLIE MITCHELL	VAN	26	0.15	1.85	7.85

Pronger, Keith, Bouwmeester — sure, those are all names synonymous with tough defence. But how about Mike Weaver? Or Pavel Kubina?

It's early, but all of these players are playing significant defensive roles on their teams. Some benefit from having a great goaltender behind them, but there are a lot of blueliners here from weak teams, too.

Someone like Weaver, who has a really low profile, is considered by his coach a pretty big part of shutting down top opposition:

"I'd say Weaver is one of our best puck-movers," Murray said. "He's not a finisher, but in terms of moving the puck out of our zone and putting it in the hands of our forwards, he's pretty good. He's not a guy that contributes on the offensive side. But what is an amazing stat, he's plus-5. And for quite a while there, he and Roman (Polak) were playing the top line on every team. He's a plus-5."

Those are the sorts of guys I'm trying to highlight here, and for the most part, I think this works — even if there are some surprises. The real test is which guys can maintain play like this all season.

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 9

J.P. — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:00:12 -0000

by Graham Hughes - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs (with special thanks to winterion for the icon set):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Jose Theodore		Hasn't played a second since November 14 in Jersey; Gabby's got to get him back out there soon.
Semyon Varlamov		Varly went 2-0-1/2.27/.919 with a shutout this week but was probably even better than those impressive numbers would indicate.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner		The up arrow might be a little generous, but think of it more as "Alzner's an upgrade over some of the Caps' regulars on the blueline" rather than a direct comment on his two-game performance (which has been solid if unspectacular).
John Carlson		Held his own in his first NHL tour of duty.
John Erskine		Averaged 18:44 of ice time per game this week, which is too much time for a marginal NHL defenseman and may be why he's been looking so slow of late. Or maybe it's just that he's so slow.
Mike Green		Had the shift from hell in overtime on Monday night, but had nice assists on Monday and Wednesday. In other words, his offense isn't the problem... and never has been.
Milan Jurcina		Getting big minutes on a struggling penalty kill; six blocks and four hits in two games.
Shaone Morrisonn		Perhaps his absence is impacting his usual partner Green's play.
Brian Pothier		Adding a bit of physicality to a game that's really coming around nicely.
Tom Poti		Missed on the penalty kill.
Jeff Schultz		Assist, plus-two rating for the week. Ho hum.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		Plus-two as a defenseman against the Sens, nothing as a forward against the Sabres.

Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom		As Ovechkin returns to form, so to does Backstrom (even if the numbers don't show it... yet). The big face-off win with 15.5 seconds left in Montreal and the shootout-deciding tally earn an up arrow.
Jay Beagle		Scored his first NHL goal in Ottawa, but took a bad penalty in Montreal. Decent short-term fill-in.
Matt Bradley		Not much to report - he must be in the "taking names" portion of "kicking ass and taking names."
Chris Clark		Scored in Ottawa, but is struggling a bit out there.
Eric Fehr		Three goals and an assist, a plus-three rating and ten shots on goal. Most importantly? His three goals totaled 63 feet from stick-to-goal line (and I'll take the under). Keep up the Knuble, Laich impression, Fehrsie.
Tomas Fleischmann		It's been a half-dozen games since Flash scored, and he's actually losing ice time (gasp!) to Fehr, among others.
Alexandre Giroux		Look at the Corsi. Look at the rate at which he's taking penalties. Tell me he's not the worst player to don the red, white and blue so far this season.
Andrew Gordon		A quick cup o' coffee and see ya later.
Boyd Gordon		No news ain't good news.
Mike Knuble		Skating again, which is a good sign (even if it is a finger injury).
Brooks Laich		An assist in Montreal, but only one shot on goal in three games for the week. Looking good, though, on a line with Morrison and Fehr.
Quintin Laing		Did an in-game interview on Comcast Sportsnet despite having his jaw wired shut. Seriously.
Brendan Morrison		Goal, assist, plus-three and 53.8% in the dot. In 50:02 of ice time for the week, he was on the ice for three goals for and none against.
Michael Nylander		Yawn.
Alex Ovechkin		A pair of goals, a pair of assists and a pair of penalized hits; AO's really got to be careful regarding that last number.
Mathieu Perreault		Pointless in five and only two shots on goal and a 38.7 win percentage in the dot for the week.
Alexander Semin		Caps offense scoring .74 fewer goals per game without Semin this season (but also giving up .68 fewer goals per game), and power play efficiency drops from 28.2% with Sasha to 10.7% without.
David Steckel		A 14/15 face-off performance against Buffalo saves the week for the snake-bitten Steckel, who is one of a half-dozen NHL forwards who have played 25 games this season without scoring a goal.

Recap: Caps 2, Sabres 0

David M. Getz — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:12:14 -0000

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[AP Recap - GameCenter - Game Summary - Event Summary]

Earlier today I wrote, "There are a lot of ways to be a productive hockey player". By the same token, there are a lot of different ways to win a hockey game. Some nights it takes dazzling offense. Some nights it takes a team gritting their teeth and willing themselves to victory. Some nights it takes one guy putting the team on his back and carrying them to a win. And some nights - like tonight - it takes a team filling out its roster with AHL call-ups rallying behind a bad call (more on that in a bit) and playing smart, aggressive, defensively-sound hockey, including killing off a five minute major by drawing a penalty of their own and not letting the opponent register a single shot.

While the Caps' forechecking was solid and their offense pressure was consistent, the bulk of the praise for this game has to go to the defense corps, all of whom played well. Mike Green was all over the ice creating chances in the offensive zone, Brian Pothier played with controlled aggression and was a constant disruption to Buffalo's offense, John Erskine was quietly efficient, Karl Alzner looked like an old vet, and Milan Jurcina played his size. It's hard to ask for anything more from the group.

Finally, Semyon Varlamov was simply outstanding, something that had as much to do with his mental game as his physical one. After the Alex Ovechkin penalty, the ensuing powerplay, and the raucous atmosphere it would have been understandable for even the most veteran of netminders to get a little anxious. But Varlamov stayed calm and collected the entire time, which was exactly what the team needed. The effect that has on a team can't under underestimated, and Varly's quiet confidence played a bigger role in tonight's win than it'll get credit for.

Ten additional notes on tonight's game:

Not only should the boarding call on Alex Ovechkin not have been a been a major - I'm not even sure it have even been a penalty. Patrick Kaleta may have gone into the boards face first, but Ovechkin hit him shoulder-to-shoulder.
I've been accused of being a referee apologist in the past, and constant complaining about the officiating is one of my pet peeves, but Paul Devorski and Kelly Sutherland were awful tonight, committing a number of officiating cardinal sins. Letting the game be played like it's 2003 and hooking's not in the rule book: check. Making a call based on a result (Kaleta's injury) rather than the play: check. A questionable make-up call soon after: check. The only way they could have made it worse would have been to get perturbed at one of the teams and start making calls out of spite.
Karl Alzner went from the AHL to playing 20:15, second-most among Capitals defensemen. If you think he's been in Hershey for reasons that have anything to do with anything other than the salary cap, your argument just got substantially weaker.
Brian Pothier's second period hip check on Clark McArthur was pretty sweet. Of course, it would have been even better if it didn't look like he gave himself whiplash on the play.
It might be beating a dead horse, but it's simply unacceptable to watch a guy crash the net as hard as Steve Montador did to end the second and have the other team instigate the scrum after the whistle.
Coming in to tonight's action Paul Gaustad was first in the NHL in faceoff percentage at 63.3 and David Steckel was second at 61.4. Steckel won four of five head-to-head draws, but Guastad can always look on the bright side: he was one of five against Stecks; the rest of his team was oh-for-nine.
He's been cold recently, but Nicklas Backstrom really turned it on after Ovechkin was shown the gate. He may not have gotten on the scoresheet for his trouble, but that's the kind of play that can help bust a slump.
Since his last goal, which came on the 14th when the Caps played the Devils in Newark, Tomas Fleischmann's played five games and has just one assist and seven shots. C'mon Flash, where's the guy who was making things happen every shift?
If I were Bruce Boudreau I'd implement a rule barring Semyon Varlamov form handling the puck more than three feet away from the blue paint, effective immediately.
Only one Capitals - Eric Fehr - had an average shift length of over sixty seconds. Jeez, the guy scores one big goal and he thinks he's one of the young guns...

Just two days after "a total collapse by 20 guys" the Capitals came out and simply got the job done on a night they could have used injuries, Ovechkin's ejection, or their recently grueling schedule as an excuse and simply did what they needed to do to get the two points. That doesn't make the leads they've blown or the games the coasted through any more acceptable - but it sure does feel good, doesn't it?

Game highlights:

Leveling the Playing Field

David M. Getz — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:15:08 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

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It's in the nature of just about every sports fan to analyze their favorite team. The problem is that the data to do so is oftentimes incomplete, unreliable, or just not there. Defense in hockey, for example, is notoriously difficult to measure. Point production is at least in part a factor of who a player plays with and against. Save percentage is a decent measure of goaltender performance - but a goalie playing behind a bad team's going to have a hard time putting up the same kind of numbers as a goalie playing behind a defensive juggernaut.

One way to try and compare data is to normalize it - to do whatever you can to make it so the players on a level playing field, so you can compare apples to apples. That's the logic behind a lot of what Gabriel Desjardins at Behind the Net does: sure Nicklas Backstrom has more goals than Eric Fehr, but given the disparity in playing time, power play time, and strength of teammates, is that disparity as big as the raw numbers make it seem? Does it exist at all? By turning ice time and goals in to goals per minute, you can get a little bit closer to the answer.

The problem is that when you do that, the numbers lose some of their relate-ability. When you say Alexander Ovechkin's 56 goals were an incredible achievement, people are right there with you. When you tell them he scored 1.57 goals per sixty minutes of five-on-five play they might assume it's impressive since it's Alexander Ovechkin, but they don't relate to it in the same way.

With that in mind, we've decided to normalize individual player scoring data and convert it in to run-of-the-mill statistics by assigning everyone on the team the same amount of "ice time". We decided to go ahead with 18 minutes a night, since that's more or less what a player who gets regular ice time but isn't a top line or top pairing guy gets. Each player is assumed to play 14:12 of even strength ice time and 1:57 of power play ice time per game i"in order to roughly correspond with how much time the player would get based on the amount of time the Capitals have spent in each situation so far this season. We also assume each player get 1:51 of penalty kill time, although this doesn't factor in to point totals since the team doesn't have any shorthanded goals. The method isn't perfect - it doesn't account for quality of competition or teammates, and obviously some players are hurt by the fact that in reality they play so rarely on the the power play. Still, it's an interesting exercise to see the effect of. standardizing ice time does on total production

Or, in other words, if everyone got the same ice time and scored at their current rates, what would their stats look like?

	G	A	P	ESG	ESA	ESP	PPG	PPA	PPP
Nicklas Backstrom	3	14	17	2	11	13	1	3	4
Matt Bradley	5	6	11	5	6	11	0	0	0
Chris Clark	2	10	12	2	5	7	0	5	5
Eric Fehr	7	8	15	7	5	12	0	3	3
Tomas Fleischmann	12	6	18	8	2	10	4	4	8
Boyd Gordon	0	7	7	0	7	7	0	0	0
Mike Knuble	7	13	20	6	11	17	1	2	3
Brooks Laich	7	11	18	4	9	13	3	2	5
Quintin Laing	4	0	4	4	0	4	0	0	0
Brendan Morrison	7	9	16	6	8	14	1	1	2
Alex Ovechkin	16	8	24	14	6	20	2	2	4
Mathieu Perreault	6	12	18	6	12	18	0	0	0
Alexander Semin	7	15	22	5	5	12	2	3	5
David Steckel	0	3	3	0	3	3	0	0	0

	G	A	P	ESG	ESA	ESP	PPG	PPA	PPP
John Erskine	0	2	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
Mike Green	2	13	15	2	10	12	0	3	3
Milan Jurcina	0	3	3	0	3	3	0	0	0
Shaone Morrisonn	0	3	3	0	3	3	0	0	0
Brian Pothier	4	5	9	2	5	7	2	0	2
Tom Poti	0	0	4	0	3	3	0	1	1
Jeff Schultz	1	5	6	1	5	6	0	0	0

So what've we got?

Mike Knuble was in large part brought in to help the team's power play, but he's tied for seventh in power play points among forwards and doing most of his damage at even strength.
Shaone Morrisonn makes $1.975 million, is tied for the worst GAON/60 on the team, and has done nothing offensively despite playing most shift with Mike Green. If the Capitals want to free up cap space and are tired of waiting on Michael Nylander, I have a suggestion for them...
David Steckel...oof.
Matt Bradley's more productive at even strength than Tomas Fleischmann. Take it for what it's worth (hint: not much).
At even strength Mathieu Perreault is outproducing Nicklas Backstrom, and Brendan Morrison and has been equal to Tomas Fleichmann and Brooks Laich. Très bien. Now how 'bout some power play time for the kid?
Jeff Schultz has been the team's third most productive defenseman. As much as I like Sarge, that's not good. Maybe instead of pining for that "big, crease-clearing" defenseman we should be hoping that Caps find away to get another puck mover on their roster. Or that Tom Poti starts bringing the kind of offense he's capable of. Either/or.
Eric Fehr is third in even strength goals and twelfth in even strength ice time per game.
Chris Clark has as many or more power play points per minute as Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas, Backstrom, Mike Green, Brendan Morrison, Mike Knuble, or Brooks Laich, raise your hand. Maybe we can cut him a little slack in terms of raw numbers?

What jumps out at you? Who might deserve a few more minutes each night to showcase what they can do? Just as importantly, whose numbers do you really think are indicative of their talent, and whose numbers aren't telling the whole story?

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 8

J.P. — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth	-	A home loss and unimpressive numbers in his NHL season debut don't tell the whole story of Neuvy's Friday night, but he'll certainly want to show more in his next recall.
Jose Theodore	?	Difficult week for Theo off the ice, is back with the team now and looking to get back on track.
Semyon Varlamov	▲	A 1.44/.949 week should result in nothing but wins. Alas, Varly will have to settle for a win Tuesday and the knowledge that he's the only reason his team got a point on Saturday night.

Defensemen
John Carlson	-	Led the team in hits in his NHL debut and isn't shy about shooting the puck or skating it into the offensive zone. There's a reason his arrival has been eagerly anticipated.
John Erskine	-	Dropped the gloves with Georges Laraque, but seems to be getting slower (at least by comparison to his fellow rearguards) every game. Correlation?
Mike Green	▲	Five points (all assists) in three games to take the lead among all NHL blueliners in points, but needs to be less generous in distributing the puck to opposing teams.
Milan Jurcina	+	Missed all three games - as many as he didn't play in all of last season.
Shaone Morrisonn	+	Got his bell rung in Wednesday night's game and missed the weekend.
Brian Pothier	▲	Took six shots and blocked nine in three games. Solid.
Tom Poti	+	.Missed much of Friday night's game and all of Saturday's; just three shots on goal in his last eight games.
Jeff Schultz	-	A pair of three-hit games and a plus-one rating for the week - big minutes and few stats to show for 'em.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan	-	Scratched in New York, started on the wing Friday night only to be shifted back to the blueline for most of the game and all of Saturday night. The versatility was nice; the play on the blueline less so.

Forwards		.
Nicklas Backstrom	▼	One assist in his last five games, no goals in his last nine, no shots in his last two... needs to get back on track.
Jay Beagle	-	Got his first NHL point on Tuesday night, but not much else to speak of in limited minutes.
Matt Bradley	▲	No, he didn't do much over the weekend, but Brads did more than enough on Tuesday to earn an up arrow for the week. #needsmoreBradley
Chris Clark	▼	Got a shot at top line RW, but couldn't stick. Saturday night's game was his first in five without a minus-one rating.
Eric Fehr	-	Sniped a nice goal Friday night, but just four shots on goal for a week that included some better-than-usual minutes.
Tomas Fleischmann	-	Nine-game point streak snapped Friday night, has now gone four straight shots on goal without scoring, killing his shooting percentage.
Andrew Gordon	-	Blink and you missed his eight-shift season debut.
Boyd Gordon	+	Gordon's missing a lot of time in an important season for the RFA-to-be.
Mike Knuble	+	Tuesday night's battle in Manhattan was exactly the kind of game for which you want Knuble in the lineup, but there will be plenty of those come spring.
Brooks Laich	▲	Goal, assist, plus-two, 11 shots on goal and can play on any line or in any situation (he's the only Cap forward averaging more than two minutes per game on each of the special teams units). Bless you, Brooksie.
Quintin Laing	♥	A well-deserved purple heart for Q.
Brendan Morrison	-	A nice goal late against Montreal, but penalties in each of the three games, one the ice for both power play goals the Caps surrendered (and four of six goals against overall) and neither of the extra man tallies they scored.
Michael Nylander	●	Zzzz...
Alex Ovechkin	-	For anyone else, two goals in three games would be a great week. But for The Great Eight, the bar's set higher. And he can be better.
Mathieu Perreault	-	Continues to produce in limited ice time (he's between Ilya Kovalchuk and Alex Ovechkin in 5-on-5 points per sixty), and even won 54% of his draws this week.
Alexander Semin	+	Could've used him against the Leafs. And the Habs. And the Rangers.
David Steckel	-	Keeps doing what he does best (winning faceoffs and killing penalties), but no forward in the League has taken more shots without scoring a goal than Stecks.