SB Nation - Shaone Morrisonn

A Look at The Capitals' Blueline

J.P. — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 16:00:30 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

When Karl Alzner was recalled yesterday, he brought the total number of defensemen on the Caps' NHL roster to a whopping nine. Even with Brian Pothier out of the lineup with a rib injury and Tyler Sloan getting a lot of his minutes up front (when he gets a sweater, that is), there's a logjam on the blueline which must be resolved, especially if the Caps are going to eventually spend some of those sweet, sweet Nylander bucks on a new (to them) rearguard.

As this unit is viewed generally as the team's Achilles heel, the decision of who stays and who goes is all the more important, so let's take a look at some of the numbers through 33 games. First, stats at five-on-five, ranked by plus-minus per sixty minutes (GP - games played; QC - Quality of Competition; QT - Quality of Teammates; Pts/60 - Points per sixty minutes; GFON/60 - team goals for per sixty minutes; GAON/60 - team goals against per sixty minutes; +/-ON/60 - GFON/60 minus GAON/60; Corsi - Corsi rating; Pen+/- - Penalty plus minus per sixty minutes):

	GP	QC	QT	Pts/60	GFON/60	GAON/60	+/-ON/60	Corsi	Pen+/-
Jeff Schultz	26	.040	.402	1.05	3.44	1.35	2.09	10.4	-0.1
John Erskine	21	-.078	.157	0.39	3.11	1.17	1.94	-5.0	-0.6
Brian Pothier	28	-.079	.273	0.98	3.23	1.41	1.83	-2.2	-0.5
Mike Green	32	-.013	.180	1.69	4.06	2.48	1.58	8.1	-0.2
Tom Poti	27	.139	-.200	0.56	2.93	2.37	0.56	0.3	0.0
Milan Jurcina	25	.106	-.178	0.66	2.47	2.64	-0.16	-4.8	-1.0
Tyler Sloan*	20	.009	-.310	0.77	2.06	2.32	-0.26	-13.2	-0.7
Shaone Morrisonn	24	-.017	.372	0.34	2.71	3.22	-0.51	-8.2	-0.5
Karl Alzner	5	-.028	-.380	1.68	1.68	3.35	-1.68	-23.3	-1.7

Some of these numbers are surprising - first and foremost the fact that John Erskine has the lowest GAON/60 of the group and how bad Alzner's numbers are (albeit in an extremely small sample). Some aren't as surprising - Mike Green has the highest GFON/60 and Jeff Schultz is leading the way in plus-minus, even though he's playing tough competition. In fact, Schultz has the best five-on-five plus-minus per sixty in the entire NHL among blueliners who have played at least ten games... and Erskine and Pothier round out the top three, respectively, with Green not far behind.

As for Erskine's numbers (and Pothier's, for that matter), you can see that he has been somewhat hidden (more or less tied for the weakest competition) and his Corsi shows he's been somewhat lucky to be on the right side of the plus-minus ledger. Anyway, there's plenty there for discussion in the comments, but let's move on.

Next up - just a couple of four-on-five numbers, ranked by goals against per sixty minutes (TOI/60 - time on ice per sixty minutes):

	TOI/60	GAON/60
Brian Pothier	0.56	3.81
Karl Alzner	2.51	4.77
Milan Jurcina	2.40	4.99
Mike Green	2.09	5.39
Jeff Schultz	2.44	5.68
Shaone Morrisonn	1.87	6.69
Tom Poti	3.51	9.49
John Erskine	1.38	12.44
Tyler Sloan*	0.64	23.62

It's no secret that the Caps' penalty kill has struggled, and part of the reason is that a couple of their supposed defensive stalwarts - Shaone Morrisonn and Tom Poti - haven't been getting the job done. Erskine has become nearly unplayable down a man (and his minutes reflect that - only two defensemen in the League have a worse GAON/60), and no one with a decent sample size is really distinguishing himself here, save perhaps Milan Jurcina. Granted, a few saves here and there could help these numbers out, but the blueliners have to help out their netminders as well.

Finally, some general numbers, ranked by games played (TOI - time on ice per game; Hits - hits; BkS - blocked shots; TkA - takeaways; GvA - giveaways; GvA/60 - giveaways per sixty minutes of ice time T-G/60 - takeaways minus giveaways per sixty minutes of ice time):

	GP	TOI	Hits	BkS	TkA	GvA	GvA/60	T-A/60
Mike Green	32	25:05	47	50	14	30	2.24	-1.20
Brian Pothier	28	17:47	34	40	11	14	1.45	-0.31
Tom Poti	27	21:31	10	39	16	14	1.69	0.24
Jeff Schultz	26	18:47	24	47	4	16	1.96	-1.47
Milan Jurcina	25	17:32	43	37	3	12	1.64	-1.23
Shaone Morrisonn	24	17:14	50	39	4	11	1.59	-1.01
John Erskine	21	16:44	44	22	4	19	3.24	-2.56
Tyler Sloan*	20	12:32	26	16	2	11	2.63	-2.15
Karl Alzner	5	18:12	3	6	0	1	0.66	-0.66

A few more interesting numbers here, especially those last two, which measure puck possession and protection. Sure, Green turns the puck over with maddening frequency, but not nearly as often per minute as Erskine. Add in Green's takeaways, and he looks even ~~less bad~~ better.

Again, there's a lot of data in these tables, but, taken together, they paint a pretty good picture of where the Caps' blueline is at the moment, and who are the likely - and deserving - candidates to go when room needs to be made.

* Sloan's statistics include time spent at forward. Simple stats via NHL.com, advanced stats via Behind the Net.

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 11

J.P. — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth		Didn't get much help Saturday night... and needed an awful lot the way he played. Now an ugly 0-2-0/4.56/.845 on the (NHL) season.
Jose Theodore		He'll need to be better than 1-1-0/2.97/.872 in Varly's absences, whenever they are.
Semyon Varlamov		Followed up a 26-save shutout - his second whitewashing in four starts - with a trip to the IR. On the plus side, the Caps have the luxury of being extra cautious with him... for now.

Defensemen
John Erskine		The wear and tear is wearing and tearing Erskine down to the point where he seems nearly worn and torn out.
Mike Green		The return of "Game Over" Green Friday night couldn't save a week full of turnovers and blown assignments... with Team Canada no doubt watching.
Milan Jurcina		After a minus-eight stretch in his previous six games, an even week (with a scratch thrown in) may qualify as a "good week," but the Caps need more out of Juice.
Shaone Morrisonn		Returned from injury with a zero-point, one shot on goal, minus-one week in which he averaged under 18 minutes of ice time. Sounds about right.
Brian Pothier		On injured reserve with a rib injury. It's a shame, as he was coming off a three-goal, four-assist, plus-11 November.
Tom Poti		Minus-three for the week (and that includes a plus-one in Tampa), and on the ice for six of the 12 goals the team allowed for the week.
Jeff Schultz		A plus-two week has him fourth in the League in plus/minus, and three four-block games speak further to the blueliner he's becoming.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		Scratched twice, Sloan's NHL time is running out with Laing's pending return and perhaps a recall of Karl Alzner for the blueline.

Forwards
Keith Aucoin		His most recent recall was short and relatively unproductive, which, fittingly, makes it the Keith Aucoin of recalls.
Nicklas Backstrom		Two goals, two assists, plus-four and an epic OT shift against Carolina, the "wow" moments are coming with greater frequency with each passing week.
Matt Bradley		A happy and healthy new baby gets an up arrow, especially when supplemented with a great interview.
Chris Clark		If the captain isn't contributing on the scoreboard, he's gotta be doing other things... like not letting his team put up three poor efforts in a row (including a pair against the League's two worst teams).
Eric Fehr		A goal in Tampa followed by three point-less games, Fehr will look to go from scorching hot to cold to just plain consistent.
Tomas Fleischmann		Another Cap forward looking for consistency, Flash posted a goal and three helpers this week and now has seven points in his last six games (after picking up just one in his previous six).
Alexandre Giroux		If it wasn't for Nylander's departure, Giroux being returned to Chocolatetown would qualify as great news. As it is, it's merely very good news.
Boyd Gordon		In the past two months, Gordo has played 5:55 of hockey. Sigh.
Mike Knuble		Off to a slow start since returning from the IR with a minus-three rating in two games. No doubt it takes some time to get back to game speed, but a finger injury shouldn't inhibit one's ability to crash the net.
Brooks Laich		Like his new-found mentor Knuble, Laich had no points and was minus-three for the week... but he played all four games.
Quintin Laing		Q's getting closer to returning, but when he comes back, who sits?
Brendan Morrison		No points, three shots on goal and a celebration on a puck he shot wide... ouch.
Michael Nylander		Hasta la vista, baby.
Alex Ovechkin		Returned from suspension with three multi-point games (seven points overall) and 23 shots on goal in four games.
Mathieu Perreault		Food poisoning sidelined him in Buffalo and one point in his last ten games might sideline him a little more frequently going forward. Update: Perreault has been returned to Hershey.
Alexander Semin		Two goals, three assists, plus-four and 20 shots on goal in three games, a "passenger" in the fourth. That's our Sasha!
David Steckel		Followed up his first goal of the season with no points, a minus-two rating, two shots on goal and diminishing ice time (less than ten minutes per game for the week) in four games. The face offs are still there, though (67.4% for the week).

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 10

J.P. — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:00:16 -0000

by Matt Slocum - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs (and yeah, we've used this picture before, but it's so nice it deserved to be used twice):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Jose Theodore		After having not played in more than two weeks, Theo came back strong with a pair of road wins, a 2.00 GAA and a .947 save percentage for the week. The better he is this winter, the fresher Varly will be in the spring.
Semyon Varlamov		Seemed to lose his concentration a bit late against Florida, but 1-0-0/2.01/.929 keeps the train rollin'.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner		Was on the ice for four of the six goals the Caps allowed last week. With the blueline getting healthier, Alzner once again finds himself the odd-man out - and on his way back to Hershey.
John Erskine		A plus-four rating for the week and not on the ice for a single goal against in 51:38 of ice time, which included 5:37 shorthanded.
Mike Green		Five points and a plus-four rating in three games, including four power play points on a unit that has scored seven times in the last two games.
Milan Jurcina		How do you end up with a minus-two rating for a week in which your team outscored its opponents 17-6? By being on the ice for five of those six goals against.
Shaone Morrisonn		On the trip to Tampa, so perhaps his return to the lineup is near.
Brian Pothier		Plus-two against Carolina, scratched against Philly. Huh.
Tom Poti		Returned to the lineup against the Flyers with twenty minutes of ice time and a pair of assists.
Jeff Schultz		Plus-three for the week, Jeff Cincocinco has only had two minus games since October 17 and is now in the top ten in the League in plus-minus (and is 12th among NHL blueliners in the stat since the start of the 2007-08 season).

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		A penalty in each of this week's three games, two of which were coincidental minors and one of which occurred with the Caps on the power play.

Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom		Four goals, five assists and a plus-four rating in three games including a five-point game in Philly.
Matt Bradley		Scored his fifth goal of the season against Florida, equaling his goal total from a season ago, and took one for the team in a big way on Saturday night.
Chris Clark		A goal and an assist on the week, The Captain now has half as many goals and is one helper short of his production over the previous two seasons combined. Of course, that's not saying much... other than that Clark is finally healthy.
Eric Fehr		Five points in three games, a six-game scoring streak (multi-point games in three of four), and 13 points in 13 games since returning from injury.
Tomas Fleischmann		Three goals in his last two games, he now has eight tallies in games which AO has been out of the lineup and just two when the Great Eight has dressed. Solution? Scratch him when AO's a go. Just kidding. Sorta.
Alexandre Giroux		Ten shots on goal in the last two games, a plus-three rating and a helper in Carolina... but really, we've seen more than enough.
Boyd Gordon		Looking more and more like a lost season for Gordo.
Mike Knuble		Targeting a Wednesday return, but the way the team's playing, no need to rush.
Brooks Laich		Three points, including a couple on the power play as Laich became the fourth Cap to hit double-digits in goals on the season (no other team has more than three, and several teams don't have a single 10-goal guy yet).
Quintin Laing		Getting closer, which might spell the end of Tyler Sloan's time in D.C.
Brendan Morrison		Four points on the week and more points on the campaign than he had in 62 games for the Ducks a season ago.
Michael Nylander		If Nylander was a classic SNL skit, I'm pretty sure he'd be this one.
Alex Ovechkin		Just one goal in the three games the Caps played last week- anyone hear anything to explain why his production was so limited?
Mathieu Perreault		Seven games without a point (granted, his linemates haven't been the type with which skill pivots normally succeed), but he's still doing some things... little things.
Alexander Semin		Has returned to the lineup with six points in two games, including four on the red-hot power play. Key stat: the power play is 30.3% successful in Semin's twenty games played and at just 9.1% in the nine he's missed.
David Steckel		The monkey's off his back... now let's see some more.

Wednesday Caps Clips: Two Games for Ovechkin

J.P. — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 11:45:12 -0000

by Gerry Broome - AP

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Your savory breakfast links:

As you know by now, Alex Ovechkin was handed a two-game suspension for his knee-on-knee hit on Carolina's Tim Gleason on Monday night.
AO, via the team, issued the following statement in response to the suspension: "I regret that this has happened. I'm glad that Tim wasn't injured because I never ever want to see anyone get hurt. I am disappointed to miss these games and I can't wait to get back on the ice next week to help my team." Presumably left on the cutting room floor was a second half of the statement, which no doubt read, "And did I mention that Tim wasn't injured? Like, at all? In fact, he was around to not get an instigator late in the game when he dropped his gloves to fight. So yeah, no injury there. Unrelated: how's David Booth?"
Reaction to the suspension was plentiful, and here's some of it from Puck Daddy, Peerless (as only Peerless could react), OFB (as, uh, only OFB could react) Sporting News, Scott Morrison of CBCSports, Edmonton Sun, Red and Black Hockey, Empty Netters (bringing the Pittsburgh ~~insanity~~ ~~bias~~ point of view), Fight For Old DC.
TSN asked 25 NHLers "whether they viewed Ovechkin as a hard-hitting player, or more often as a reckless and dirty player," and seven responded that he was both reckless and dirty (why no distinction was drawn is beyond me, but I guess it's good to see that Karl Rove has apparently found work). [TSN.ca]
Before the suspension came down, a bunch of Caps shared their thoughts on the hit and reaction to it, including some strong words from Brooks Laich... [Examiner]
... and Bruce Boudreau threw that "R" word out there. [Puck Daddy, Washington Times]
The other part of the AO hit, of course, is the injury, and he is officially "day-to-day" on that front. [Examiner]
In other Caps news (yes, there was some), Mike Knuble is hopeful a December 9 return, both Tom Poti and Alexander Semin participated in full practice (though the latter ruled himself out for Thursday, unbeknownst to his coach), and Shaone Morrisonn is shutting it down for a couple of days (not good). [Examiner]
"Eat It, Haters," Jeff Schultz edition. [From The Rink]
More power rankings are out, with the Caps down one to fourth here at SBNation, down one to fifth at FOX Sports and down one to sixth at SI.
AO isn't the League's most efficient scorer. In related news, they don't ask "how," they ask "how many." [WSJ]
Zach Miskovic is playing well down in Hershey. [John Walton Hockey]
If you want a Michael Dubuc bobblehead, you have to vote for it first. [Stingrays]

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 9

J.P. — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 16:00:12 -0000

by Graham Hughes - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs (with special thanks to winterion for the icon set):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Jose Theodore		Hasn't played a second since November 14 in Jersey; Gabby's got to get him back out there soon.
Semyon Varlamov		Varly went 2-0-1/2.27/.919 with a shutout this week but was probably even better than those impressive numbers would indicate.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner		The up arrow might be a little generous, but think of it more as "Alzner's an upgrade over some of the Caps' regulars on the blueline" rather than a direct comment on his two-game performance (which has been solid if unspectacular).
John Carlson		Held his own in his first NHL tour of duty.
John Erskine		Averaged 18:44 of ice time per game this week, which is too much time for a marginal NHL defenseman and may be why he's been looking so slow of late. Or maybe it's just that he's so slow.
Mike Green		Had the shift from hell in overtime on Monday night, but had nice assists on Monday and Wednesday. In other words, his offense isn't the problem... and never has been.
Milan Jurcina		Getting big minutes on a struggling penalty kill; six blocks and four hits in two games.
Shaone Morrisonn		Perhaps his absence is impacting his usual partner Green's play.
Brian Pothier		Adding a bit of physicality to a game that's really coming around nicely.
Tom Poti		Missed on the penalty kill.
Jeff Schultz		Assist, plus-two rating for the week. Ho hum.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan		Plus-two as a defenseman against the Sens, nothing as a forward against the Sabres.

Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom		As Ovechkin returns to form, so to does Backstrom (even if the numbers don't show it... yet). The big face-off win with 15.5 seconds left in Montreal and the shootout-deciding tally earn an up arrow.
Jay Beagle		Scored his first NHL goal in Ottawa, but took a bad penalty in Montreal. Decent short-term fill-in.
Matt Bradley		Not much to report - he must be in the "taking names" portion of "kicking ass and taking names."
Chris Clark		Scored in Ottawa, but is struggling a bit out there.
Eric Fehr		Three goals and an assist, a plus-three rating and ten shots on goal. Most importantly? His three goals totaled 63 feet from stick-to-goal line (and I'll take the under). Keep up the Knuble, Laich impression, Fehrsie.
Tomas Fleischmann		It's been a half-dozen games since Flash scored, and he's actually losing ice time (gasp!) to Fehr, among others.
Alexandre Giroux		Look at the Corsi. Look at the rate at which he's taking penalties. Tell me he's not the worst player to don the red, white and blue so far this season.
Andrew Gordon		A quick cup o' coffee and see ya later.
Boyd Gordon		No news ain't good news.
Mike Knuble		Skating again, which is a good sign (even if it is a finger injury).
Brooks Laich		An assist in Montreal, but only one shot on goal in three games for the week. Looking good, though, on a line with Morrison and Fehr.
Quintin Laing		Did an in-game interview on Comcast Sportsnet despite having his jaw wired shut. Seriously.
Brendan Morrison		Goal, assist, plus-three and 53.8% in the dot. In 50:02 of ice time for the week, he was on the ice for three goals for and none against.
Michael Nylander		Yawn.
Alex Ovechkin		A pair of goals, a pair of assists and a pair of penalized hits; AO's really got to be careful regarding that last number.
Mathieu Perreault		Pointless in five and only two shots on goal and a 38.7 win percentage in the dot for the week.
Alexander Semin		Caps offense scoring .74 fewer goals per game without Semin this season (but also giving up .68 fewer goals per game), and power play efficiency drops from 28.2% with Sasha to 10.7% without.
David Steckel		A 14/15 face-off performance against Buffalo saves the week for the snake-bitten Steckel, who is one of a half-dozen NHL forwards who have played 25 games this season without scoring a goal.

Leveling the Playing Field

David M. Getz — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 20:15:08 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

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It's in the nature of just about every sports fan to analyze their favorite team. The problem is that the data to do so is oftentimes incomplete, unreliable, or just not there. Defense in hockey, for example, is notoriously difficult to measure. Point production is at least in part a factor of who a player plays with and against. Save percentage is a decent measure of goaltender performance - but a goalie playing behind a bad team's going to have a hard time putting up the same kind of numbers as a goalie playing behind a defensive juggernaut.

One way to try and compare data is to normalize it - to do whatever you can to make it so the players on a level playing field, so you can compare apples to apples. That's the logic behind a lot of what Gabriel Desjardins at Behind the Net does: sure Nicklas Backstrom has more goals than Eric Fehr, but given the disparity in playing time, power play time, and strength of teammates, is that disparity as big as the raw numbers make it seem? Does it exist at all? By turning ice time and goals in to goals per minute, you can get a little bit closer to the answer.

The problem is that when you do that, the numbers lose some of their relate-ability. When you say Alexander Ovechkin's 56 goals were an incredible achievement, people are right there with you. When you tell them he scored 1.57 goals per sixty minutes of five-on-five play they might assume it's impressive since it's Alexander Ovechkin, but they don't relate to it in the same way.

With that in mind, we've decided to normalize individual player scoring data and convert it in to run-of-the-mill statistics by assigning everyone on the team the same amount of "ice time". We decided to go ahead with 18 minutes a night, since that's more or less what a player who gets regular ice time but isn't a top line or top pairing guy gets. Each player is assumed to play 14:12 of even strength ice time and 1:57 of power play ice time per game i"in order to roughly correspond with how much time the player would get based on the amount of time the Capitals have spent in each situation so far this season. We also assume each player get 1:51 of penalty kill time, although this doesn't factor in to point totals since the team doesn't have any shorthanded goals. The method isn't perfect - it doesn't account for quality of competition or teammates, and obviously some players are hurt by the fact that in reality they play so rarely on the the power play. Still, it's an interesting exercise to see the effect of. standardizing ice time does on total production

Or, in other words, if everyone got the same ice time and scored at their current rates, what would their stats look like?

	G	A	P	ESG	ESA	ESP	PPG	PPA	PPP
Nicklas Backstrom	3	14	17	2	11	13	1	3	4
Matt Bradley	5	6	11	5	6	11	0	0	0
Chris Clark	2	10	12	2	5	7	0	5	5
Eric Fehr	7	8	15	7	5	12	0	3	3
Tomas Fleischmann	12	6	18	8	2	10	4	4	8
Boyd Gordon	0	7	7	0	7	7	0	0	0
Mike Knuble	7	13	20	6	11	17	1	2	3
Brooks Laich	7	11	18	4	9	13	3	2	5
Quintin Laing	4	0	4	4	0	4	0	0	0
Brendan Morrison	7	9	16	6	8	14	1	1	2
Alex Ovechkin	16	8	24	14	6	20	2	2	4
Mathieu Perreault	6	12	18	6	12	18	0	0	0
Alexander Semin	7	15	22	5	5	12	2	3	5
David Steckel	0	3	3	0	3	3	0	0	0

	G	A	P	ESG	ESA	ESP	PPG	PPA	PPP
John Erskine	0	2	2	0	2	2	0	0	0
Mike Green	2	13	15	2	10	12	0	3	3
Milan Jurcina	0	3	3	0	3	3	0	0	0
Shaone Morrisonn	0	3	3	0	3	3	0	0	0
Brian Pothier	4	5	9	2	5	7	2	0	2
Tom Poti	0	0	4	0	3	3	0	1	1
Jeff Schultz	1	5	6	1	5	6	0	0	0

So what've we got?

Mike Knuble was in large part brought in to help the team's power play, but he's tied for seventh in power play points among forwards and doing most of his damage at even strength.
Shaone Morrisonn makes $1.975 million, is tied for the worst GAON/60 on the team, and has done nothing offensively despite playing most shift with Mike Green. If the Capitals want to free up cap space and are tired of waiting on Michael Nylander, I have a suggestion for them...
David Steckel...oof.
Matt Bradley's more productive at even strength than Tomas Fleischmann. Take it for what it's worth (hint: not much).
At even strength Mathieu Perreault is outproducing Nicklas Backstrom, and Brendan Morrison and has been equal to Tomas Fleichmann and Brooks Laich. Très bien. Now how 'bout some power play time for the kid?
Jeff Schultz has been the team's third most productive defenseman. As much as I like Sarge, that's not good. Maybe instead of pining for that "big, crease-clearing" defenseman we should be hoping that Caps find away to get another puck mover on their roster. Or that Tom Poti starts bringing the kind of offense he's capable of. Either/or.
Eric Fehr is third in even strength goals and twelfth in even strength ice time per game.
Chris Clark has as many or more power play points per minute as Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas, Backstrom, Mike Green, Brendan Morrison, Mike Knuble, or Brooks Laich, raise your hand. Maybe we can cut him a little slack in terms of raw numbers?

What jumps out at you? Who might deserve a few more minutes each night to showcase what they can do? Just as importantly, whose numbers do you really think are indicative of their talent, and whose numbers aren't telling the whole story?

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 8

J.P. — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth	-	A home loss and unimpressive numbers in his NHL season debut don't tell the whole story of Neuvy's Friday night, but he'll certainly want to show more in his next recall.
Jose Theodore	?	Difficult week for Theo off the ice, is back with the team now and looking to get back on track.
Semyon Varlamov	▲	A 1.44/.949 week should result in nothing but wins. Alas, Varly will have to settle for a win Tuesday and the knowledge that he's the only reason his team got a point on Saturday night.

Defensemen
John Carlson	-	Led the team in hits in his NHL debut and isn't shy about shooting the puck or skating it into the offensive zone. There's a reason his arrival has been eagerly anticipated.
John Erskine	-	Dropped the gloves with Georges Laraque, but seems to be getting slower (at least by comparison to his fellow rearguards) every game. Correlation?
Mike Green	▲	Five points (all assists) in three games to take the lead among all NHL blueliners in points, but needs to be less generous in distributing the puck to opposing teams.
Milan Jurcina	+	Missed all three games - as many as he didn't play in all of last season.
Shaone Morrisonn	+	Got his bell rung in Wednesday night's game and missed the weekend.
Brian Pothier	▲	Took six shots and blocked nine in three games. Solid.
Tom Poti	+	.Missed much of Friday night's game and all of Saturday's; just three shots on goal in his last eight games.
Jeff Schultz	-	A pair of three-hit games and a plus-one rating for the week - big minutes and few stats to show for 'em.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan	-	Scratched in New York, started on the wing Friday night only to be shifted back to the blueline for most of the game and all of Saturday night. The versatility was nice; the play on the blueline less so.

Forwards		.
Nicklas Backstrom	▼	One assist in his last five games, no goals in his last nine, no shots in his last two... needs to get back on track.
Jay Beagle	-	Got his first NHL point on Tuesday night, but not much else to speak of in limited minutes.
Matt Bradley	▲	No, he didn't do much over the weekend, but Brads did more than enough on Tuesday to earn an up arrow for the week. #needsmoreBradley
Chris Clark	▼	Got a shot at top line RW, but couldn't stick. Saturday night's game was his first in five without a minus-one rating.
Eric Fehr	-	Sniped a nice goal Friday night, but just four shots on goal for a week that included some better-than-usual minutes.
Tomas Fleischmann	-	Nine-game point streak snapped Friday night, has now gone four straight shots on goal without scoring, killing his shooting percentage.
Andrew Gordon	-	Blink and you missed his eight-shift season debut.
Boyd Gordon	+	Gordon's missing a lot of time in an important season for the RFA-to-be.
Mike Knuble	+	Tuesday night's battle in Manhattan was exactly the kind of game for which you want Knuble in the lineup, but there will be plenty of those come spring.
Brooks Laich	▲	Goal, assist, plus-two, 11 shots on goal and can play on any line or in any situation (he's the only Cap forward averaging more than two minutes per game on each of the special teams units). Bless you, Brooksie.
Quintin Laing	♥	A well-deserved purple heart for Q.
Brendan Morrison	-	A nice goal late against Montreal, but penalties in each of the three games, one the ice for both power play goals the Caps surrendered (and four of six goals against overall) and neither of the extra man tallies they scored.
Michael Nylander	●	Zzzz...
Alex Ovechkin	-	For anyone else, two goals in three games would be a great week. But for The Great Eight, the bar's set higher. And he can be better.
Mathieu Perreault	-	Continues to produce in limited ice time (he's between Ilya Kovalchuk and Alex Ovechkin in 5-on-5 points per sixty), and even won 54% of his draws this week.
Alexander Semin	+	Could've used him against the Leafs. And the Habs. And the Rangers.
David Steckel	-	Keeps doing what he does best (winning faceoffs and killing penalties), but no forward in the League has taken more shots without scoring a goal than Stecks.

Thursday Caps Clips: Neuvirth To Get a Start?

J.P. — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 11:42:53 -0000

via Caps In Pictures

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Your savory breakfast links:

In case you missed it in the overnight, Tuvan published a translation of interviews with Alex Ovechkin and Semyon Varlamov following the Rangers game.
On the injury/other front, Jose Theodore might not be available this weekend (which would likely get Michal Neuvirth a start), Alexander Semin is also questionable for the two games and Quintin Laing is out up to six weeks with a broken jaw. Milan Jurcina is getting better, Boyd Gordon is not, and Shaone Morrisonn is day-to-day with an upper-body injury. I think that's everyone. [Washington Post, others]
The Bears have recalled Michael Dubuc from South Carolina and another forward from Kalamazoo of the ECHL. A sign of a recall (or two) from Hershey to D.C. for the weekend? [Patriot-News, @timleone)]
As mentioned above, Laing will be out up to six weeks with a broken jaw (but at least he got Fark'd for his efforts). Here's a look at part of what the next few weeks will look like for Q. [Peerless]
AO misses two weeks, still has nearly the most clutch goals in hockey this season. [The Hockey News]
As far as undersized pivots who have been pleasant surprises for the Caps this fall, Brendan Morrison has to be in the top two. [Washington Times]
Matt Bradley is probably the toughest environmentalist around... [National Geographic]
... and his legend grows. [Washington Times]
Is Brooks Laich the most underrated player in the League? [Bangin Panger]
Pierre LeBrun offers some (solicited) praise for Nicklas Backstrom. [ESPN]
Celebrating Bruce Boudreau's 100th win. [Rock The Red.net]
Speaking of Gabby, how do you name the League's top-nine coaches on the season so far and not have him on that list? [ESPN]
Apropos of nothing, Varly's win on Tuesday night pushed him into sole possession of 22nd in franchise history in wins, breaking a tie with Cristobal Huet and Craig Billington. He could be in the top-14 by New Year's and would need 22 more to be in the top-10 by season's end.
Since you've no doubt been wondering, Sergei Fedorov is currently fourth on his KHL team in scoring with four goals and nine assists in 23 games (and a team-best plus-ten rating) and Viktor Kozlov is tied for fifth on his team with five goals and ten assists in 25 games. And I hear it's really, really great over there and everyone's nice and it rains gumdrops (just in case Michael Nylander's reading).
There have gotta be scores of Canadian kids growing up and patterning their game after Alex Ovechkin (recall that kids like to rebel against their parents), but probably not as many Russian kids emulating Mike Green. Here's one. [NHL.com]
The Sabres have named former Cap Grant Ledyard Director of Youth Hockey Development. [Sabres]
Not directly Caps-related (though we all know the link), a nice story about a kid and one of his hockey coaches. [Autism Speaks via @CapsInPictures]
Finally, happy birthday to a couple of former Caps and Sabres - Ledyard turns 48 and Dean Melanson turns 36.

Capital Ups and Downs: Week 7

J.P. — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:00:35 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

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Our weekly look at individual Washington Capitals' ups and downs:

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Jose Theodore	▼	Brutal week (0-1-0/7.17/.714) leaves his season numbers in tatters, but more important than just this week, JT60's GAA and save percentage over the last five games: 4.29 and .850. Yikes.
Semyon Varlamov	▲	Don't look now, but after a 2-0-0/1.02/.964 week (including a marathon shootout win), Varly has a GAA that's half a goal better and a save percentage .019 better on the season than his main competition in D.C. More important? That 7-1-0 record.

Defensemen
John Erskine	-	Led the team in hits and was +1 against the Wild, scratched against Jersey. Such is the life of the sixth/seventh/eighth defenseman.
Mike Green	▲	A goal and four assists in three games and, with three points while up a man, the key to a power play that went 4-for-7 for the week.
Milan Jurcina	▼	Bad game against the Isles (including a bad penalty that led to the game-tying goal), out with a muscle pull for the next two.
Shaone Morrisonn	-	Led the team in hits against the Isles and blocked shots against the Devils.
Brian Pothier	▲	Continues to assert himself in the offensive zone with great results, including Friday night's game-winner and seven shots on goal in three games.
Tom Poti	-	On the ice for five of the ten goals the Caps allowed on the week (including an empty netter).
Jeff Schultz	-	Missed two games, came back to do his thing in Jersey.

Swingman
Tyler Sloan	-	Skating as a blueliner for the two games he played this week, he didn't show up much on the stat sheet... which isn't a bad thing.

Forwards
Nicklas Backstrom	▼	Minus-5 rating and just one assist in three games (not to mention a 2-for-10 night in the dot Saturday). Think he'll be happy when AO returns?
Matt Bradley	-	Solid work Friday night, a helper and the team's only plus rating Saturday.
Chris Clark	▲	Assist streak ends at four on Friday, one game after his shootout winner. Eight shots in less than two games since the Knuble injury - a sign of things to come?
Eric Fehr	-	Points in four of five entering Saturday night, gets yet another chance to make an impact with Knuble out.
Tomas Fleischmann	-	Has pointed in every game since his return except the first and his three-point week includes a power play goal and two extra man helpers. But a minus-six rating on the week (minus-two against the Isles, minus-four in Jersey) prevents him from getting a green arrow here.
Boyd Gordon	-	Blink and you missed his return to the lineup and subsequent exit from it.
Mike Knuble	▼	An assist and minus-two rating against the Isles and a busted finger against the Wild. But the Caps got him for April, not November, so don't worry too much.
Brooks Laich	-	An empty netter was his only point of the week, but 14 shots on goal is a nice number for three games.
Quintin Laing	-	Played the prototypical Q game on Friday night, didn't do much on either end of it.
Brendan Morrison	▲	Points in five-straight, including power-play helpers in the past two games where he's subbing for AO on the point (and doing quite well).
Michael Nylander	●	The dreaded yellow circle of "What the hell, dude?"
Alex Ovechkin	-	Getting closer to playing, but not in the way that we're all getting closer to dying - most expect the Great Eight in the lineup Tuesday night in Gotham.
Mathieu Perreault	▲	Goal, assist, plus-two for the week and has yet to have a minus rating in any of his six games. We'll talk about those faceoffs some other time.
Alexander Semin		Two goals against the Isles (and countless other fantastic chances) and one of the world's worst turnovers against the Devs. He's trending neither up nor down - he's trending Sasha.
David Steckel	-	Dominating the dot (70% for the week and 83% against Minny), but still yet to find the back of the net. It'll come, Stecks.

Familiarity Breeds Good Defense

Stephen Pepper — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:30:38 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

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While it looks like this brief stretch of the Washington Capitals season without Alex Ovechkin is nearing an end, one thing is for certain. This team can score goals regardless. Secondary scoring? With guys like Tyler Sloan and Mathieu Perreault lighting the lamp, this bunch is getting tertiary scoring.

But on the other side of the ledger, the Caps are now down to 23rd in the League in GA/G, at 3.06. Over three goals a game in this era is playing with fire -- Katy is not barring the door. And of the top eight Eastern Conference squads, the Caps have allowed the second-most even strength goals, with 39, just one fewer than the New York Rangers.

What's keeping the Caps flying high is scoring at a ridiculous pace, nearing four goals per game, a pace which at present exceeds even the 2006 Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes, in the first post-lockout season that saw a bit of a return to firewagon hockey. Consequently, Les Capitals sit atop the League in 5-on-5 F/A ratio.

We've hinted at one reason for poor team defense: the lack of consistent pairings, particularly beyond the top duo of Mike Green and Shaone Morrisonn, on account of having to rotate eight defensemen. And we'll repeat what GM George McPhee himself said, after the trade of Steve Eminger in June of 2008:

[W]e didn't want to carry eight defensemen again because it's too difficult for everyone to operate that way. It's hard for the head coach because you know you have someone sitting out, and someone is unhappy. And it's hard on the players.

The logjam has been alleviated from time to time due to minor injuries suffered by John Erskine, Green, and Jeff Schultz already in this campaign (and it looks like Milan Jurcina is unable to go tonight, shuffling the deck yet again). Sloan has done himself a huge favor, and possibility secured indefinitely his spot in the lineup, by gamely playing the "swingman."

But is there any correlation between consistency in the D pairings and a team's defensive performance? How consistent are the pairings on the top defensive teams in the League right now? And how inconsistent are those on the sieves of the NHL?

Turns out that four of the top five teams in GA/G -- New Jersey, Boston, San Jose, Colorado, and Buffalo -- have three regular pairs of defensemen that skate together for at least about 60% of the team's shifts at ES (for the pairs themselves and the breakdown, link on the percentage opposite the team name, all via DobberHockey):

Team	Top Three Pair %
New Jersey	50.98
Boston	73.36
San Jose	76.61
Colorado	59.34
Buffalo	74.12
Washington	55.85

Looking at the bottom five teams in GA/G -- Anaheim, Florida, Columbus, Carolina, and Toronto -- we see a slightly different picture. Four of these five teams have three regular pairs of defensemen that skate together for less than 53% of the team's shifts at ES:

Team	Top Three Pair %
Anaheim	44.62
Florida	56.40
Columbus	46.68
Carolina	40.93
Toronto	52.29
Washington	55.85

Significant, or too early in the season to tell?

Is it the injuries that have led to the significant substitution by Bruce Boudreau and Bob Woods, or is it the presence of eight capable D-men in Washington that leads the coaching staff to be a bit more leaned toward resting guys who are less than 100%, sacrificing some consistency for better health down the road? That theoretical health benefit could prove enormous come playoff time, and as long as the Caps are making fans behind their opposing team's net break out the sunscreen, there's no urgency to trim the roster on the blue line at this stage of the season.

Putting the salary cup hit of the eight-man collective aside, of course.