SB Nation - Steve Sullivan

Predators Game Day Preview: Nashville @ Vancouver

Dirk Hoag — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 20:07:53 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Two weeks ago, Martin Erat tallied a hat trick as the Predators beat the Canucks 4-2 in Nashville. Can he repeat the feat tonight as the two teams meet again in Vancouver?

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Tonight the Nashville Predators (22-11-3) wrap up their 3-game road trip through western Canada against the 20-16-0 Vancouver Canucks. For the Preds, they'll look to build upon the 4-2 victory over the Canucks from two weeks ago, which featured a hat trick for Martin Erat.

It's a late start tonight (9:30 Central) on FS-TN, so until then you can check out the matchup - and while you're reading, you can listen to a segment from this afternoon's Thom Abraham Show, in which Terry Crisp previews the game (MP3 audio), and includes some interesting commentary as to how Barry Trotz turned the Predators around after a slow 2-5-1 start...

Meet the Enemy

Nucks Misconduct is your source of Vancouver Canucks coverage, and they're not a happy bunch these days. When St. Louis came to town on Sunday, they called it a test of character. The home then went out and lost 3-1 to the underachieving Blues, so I guess they failed that test.

As always, the cast of characters in Vancouver starts with Henrik & Daniel Sedin, continues through with solid complementary players like Ryan Kesler and Mikael Samuelsson, and then on to a defense corps that hasn't quite come together as expected. Mathieu Schneider was signed to boost the power play, for example, but hasn't made much impact with just 2 goals and 3 assists in 17 games.

It's a talented crew, which was widely expected to contend for the Stanley Cup, but instead currently sits in 10th place in the Western Conference. The Canucks have won 4 of the 6 games so far on a long homestand that ends Saturday against Edmonton. Vancouver wants to make as much progress on home ice as possible before heading out on a long road trip on either side of the Olympic break.

Meet the Good Guys

The big question for Nashville is whether Jason Arnott will be ready to go (UPDATE: he's in!); he was a game-day scratch against Calgary on Saturday, but has been able to practice. If he can't go, we're likely to see Marcel Goc get more duty between Steve Sullivan and Martin Erat on the top line, as the Legwand line will be relied upon to battle the Sundin twins.

A number of Predators will be playing in front of friends and family tonight, including Cody Franson, Shea Weber, and Dan Hamhuis. Might the setting prompt a big offensive game out of #6? Weber hasn't scored a goal since November 25 at Colorado, and uncharacteristically, has just 3 shots on goal in the last 4 games. Hamhuis has struggled on the defensive end recently and could use a rebound, too.

With Arnott back in, the lines are likely as follows:

Forwards

Sullivan - Arnott - Erat

Ward - Legwand - Smithson

Hornqvist - Goc - Dumont

Jones - Spaling - Belak

Defense

Suter - Weber

Hamhuis - Klein

Bouillon - Franson

Even Strength Play

	5-on-5 data from Behind the Net
TEAM	GP	GF	GA	GF/60	SF/60	Sht %	GA/60	SA/60	Save Pct.	+/- per 60
Nashville	36	73	63	2.6	29.2	8.7	2.2	29.0	.924	+0.3
Vancouver	36	73	60	2.7	30.4	8.8	2.2	28.7	.924	+0.5

At first this looks like about the most even matchup you could hope for, with most of these numbers with a rounding error of each other. However, these season-long totals belie the fact that the Predators have played much better since October. For example, in the last 25 games, Nashville has 58 Goals For and just 40 Goals Against in 5-on-5 play, a ratio that would rank at the very top of the league if sustained.

Advantage: Nashville

Vancouver PP vs. Nashville PK

The Canucks rank 6th with a 22.4% power play, and get a decent number of chances to make it work. One of their trigger men on the point, Sami Salo, missed some practice recently but is expected to play. The Preds penalty killing has been pretty bad lately, ranking 28th with a 76.0% kill rate.

Advantage: Vancouver

Nashville PP vs. Vancouver PK

The Predators are still sputtering with the man advantage, with a 16.3% conversion rate good for 27th in the league. The Canucks are pretty much a middle-of-the-pack team on the PK, but that's probably good enough here.

Advantage: Vancouver

Goaltending

The Canucks get to roll out Roberto Luongo every night, giving them a a chance to win every game they play:

Roberto Luongo

#1 / Goalie / Vancouver Canucks

Height: 6-3

Weight: 205

Born: Apr 04, 1979

	GP	MIN	W	L		GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2009 - Roberto Luongo	29	1659	16	12		67	2.42	800	733	.916	2

Dan Ellis gets the start tonight for the Predators,riding a 5-1-0 streak that includes a .924 save percentage:

Dan Ellis

#39 / Goalie / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-0

Weight: 188

Born: Jun 19, 1980

	GP	MIN	W	L		GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2009 - Dan Ellis	16	831	8	5		37	2.67	413	376	.910	0

Advantage: Vancouver

Summary

The keys for Nashville will be to continue the strong 5-on-5 play and hope for something positive out of the special teams. While the depth scoring has been a fantastic boost, the stars like Arnott, Weber, Erat, Sullivan and J.P. Dumont (1 goal in his last 11 games) need to step up.

It will also be important for goaltending to try and rise to the challenge that Luongo presents at the other end of the ice. Dan Ellis won't have to necessarily play better than Luongo, but certainly can't afford to give up any cheap goals to Vancouver.

Look Out! Here Come The Preds!

Sean Zandberg — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:00:22 -0000

PREDATORS (22-11-3) AT CANUCKS (20-16-0)

GAME TIME: 7:30 PM

TV: Sportsnet Pacific

THE FANGED ENEMY: On The Forecheck

UPDATE (11:23 AM): It was apparently heard on the Team 1040 that Pavol Demitra is back practicing with the Canucks...already. They must have good drugs in Slovakia. Just tuned in to the Team and if you gauge what AV said...Alexander Edler could play tonight.

UPDATE (1:08 AM): Salo and Johnson are expected to play tonight. For more on that, and some praise by AV for O'Brien, check out the Vancouver Sun.

UPDATE (1:24 AM): Jason Arnott is "questionable" for tonight with an upper body injury.

********************

Oh no! Not another Central Division team! No! The Canucks are 1-7 against that heinous group. Turn on the game and pop an anxiety pill, right? Well, maybe not. There are a couple possibilities/reasons why the Canucks might show up for this one.

A. They usually follow lackluster efforts with good ones.

B. Nashville sits 4th in the West. The Canucks won't be playing down to their competition. Nashville is 7 points ahead of Vancouver.

Almost amazingly, the Canucks can still find themselves in 8th spot tomorrow night if they beat the Preds and ~~Dallas loses to San Jose in regulation tonight~~.(DONE!) Detroit and Dallas play on Wednesday and will probably push us out then if we sneak in.

The Preds are rolling right now. Since their 4-2 win over the Canucks on December 8th, they have a 5-0-1 record. They have won 4 in a row (Canucks don't know what that is like), and have a 7-1-2 record in their last 10 games. Good lord, is this Nashville we are talking about? What gives?

In the 4 game winning streak, there are a few unlikely heroes in Nashville's lineup:

-Patric Hornqvist has 4 goals and 7 points, earning him the NHL's 3rd Star Of The Week.

-Marcel Goc (good buddies with Ehrhoff) has 2 goals and 4 assists.

-Joel Ward has 1 goal and 5 assists.

Then we have what should be the usual suspects:

-David Legwand and Martin Erat have 2 goals and 4 assists each.

-Steve Sullivan has 3 goals and 1 assist.

-JP Dumont (3 points) and Jason Arnott (2 points) have slowed down. Doesn't mean we should discount them. They can strike at any moment.

So Nashville has a lot of good things going on right now, especially with the scoring from several sources.

How do the other stats add up?

COMPARATIVE STATS

-GOALS PER GAME: Canucks 5th, Preds 13th

-GOALS AGAINST PER GAME: Canucks 10th, Preds 16th

-5 ON 5: Canucks 6th, Preds 11th

-POWER PLAY: Canucks 5th, Preds 26th.

-PENALTY KILL: Canucks 19th, Preds 28th

SHOTS PER GAME: Canucks 11th, Preds 12th

SHOTS AGAINST PER GAME: Canucks 10th, Preds 11th.

WINNING % WHEN LEADING AFTER 1: Preds 3rd, Canucks 6th

WINNING % WHEN LEADING AFTER 2: Preds 1st (100%), Canucks 8th (.933)

FACEOFF %: Canucks 11th, Preds 14th

Sad, isn't it? We are better than them in most statistical categories but are still 7 points behind them. Crazy to think that in Nashville's 4-game winning streak they have scored 23 goals, but only 1 of them on the power play, which goes along with their ranking above.

I would really appreciate it if the Canucks would just calm the hell down and play their game. They need to stop getting caught up-ice. They need to play an aggressive, consistent, and defensively sound game. Can someone please teach them how to properly break out of their own zone? Please!

Willie Mitchell said Monday: "We have to go into this one prepared to win 1-0 or 2-1," said Mitchell. "If we do that, we'll be more consistent."

Oh, and check out Kevin Bieksa's disdain about having his ice time reduced. There is some finger-pointing going right now.

Can we clone 12 Ryan Keslers? Is that possible?

Don Cherry sings the praises of Steve Sullivan on latest "Coach's Corner"

Dirk Hoag — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:32:15 -0000

As noted in Sully's interview on the Thom Abraham Show this afternoon, Don Cherry talked about Steve Sullivan quite a bit in last Saturday's Coach's Corner.

Thanks go out to the gang over at WNSR, who also forwarded me the audio from the Steve Sullivan interview for you to listen to, in case you weren't able to catch it live.

You can find the Coach's Corner video after the jump (the bit about Sully starts around the 7:00 mark)...

Fantasy Hockey Team of the Week: Dec.14-20

Rafal Ladysz — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 02:28:57 -0000

More photos » by Steve Mitchell - AP

8 months ago: Florida Panthers forward Nathan Horton holds his hand up to his right eye after being hit by the Ottawa Senators defenseman Chris Phillips during the second period of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, March 31, 2009, in Sunrise, Fla. (AP Photo/Steve Mitchell)

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Welcome to fantasy hockey team of the week, a series which will be found weekly on Die By the Blade. Our primary objective is to create the finest fantasy squad consisting of a center, left winger, right winger, two defensemen and one goaltender. In other words, just like a normal group regularly on the ice in game action.

We'll in addition herald a young gun, have a laugh at the gaffe of the week, highlight the best goal and more. By the season's end, a count will be undertaken to determine which players showed up in the most weeks. Of course, I'll try to provide some tips, real tips, for those involved in deep fantasy hockey pools.

Tons of scoring took place for the Nashville Predators, 23 goals in four victories to be exact, but it wasn't the expected players taking care of business for the most part. Marcel Goc has been tossed onto a number of lines by Barry Trotz and has blossomed alongside whomever. The German native came over from San Jose and if he can continue to bring the goods, it may allow the Predators to forget about that Rich Peverley character.

Numbers: four games played, two goals, four assists, six points, plus-six rating.

There are some indubitable certainties in life. We live, we sleep, we die and Ilya Kovalchuk will put pucks past goalkeepers. Atlanta's franchise performer, for the time being, has gone pointless on just eight occasions owning the instincts of a sniper. His back-checking and defensive play are another story but Kovalchuk gets paid to shoot the puck.

Numbers: four games played, two goals, four assists, six points, minus-one rating.

Sick of being referred to as enigmatic, Nathan Horton's potential has floated back to him quickly as he sits even with Rick Nash in points. What a sweet relief it must be for the Florida Panthers to witness the third overall selection in 2003 playing the best hockey of his career. The press loves to hound struggling stars but Horton seems like he can do no wrong lately.

Numbers: four games played, three goals, four assists, seven points, plus-two rating.

Two Thrashers make up our back line and we'll start with Tobias Enstrom who has proven to be an influential defender. Covering the ice well, the 25-year-old is dependable in sending that first break-out pass and sneaking into the play. While he could benefit from a bigger frame, Enstrom uses his assets well defensively to shut down the opposing competition.

Numbers: four games played, five assists, five points, plus-two rating.

Rounding out our five-man unit is Pavel Kubina and he's fit in well in Atlanta. With a plus-14 rating, he leads the squad in that regard and still packs a heavy shot which goaltenders will be lucky to stop but won't be able to avoid rebounds on always. The assists will arrive in packages for the former Maple Leaf considering the Thrasher forwards that hover towards the goal.

Numbers: four games played, one goal, four assists, five points, plus-one rating.

On we go to the most important individual on any team. In a far from convincing Pittsburgh display in Buffalo yesterday, Marc-Andre Fleury kept his side in the game with vital stops, none more impressive than his stretch across robbing Clarke MacArthur. As Sabres supporters, we know all about goaltenders being the No.1 star so no hard feelings to the Penguins netminder.

Numbers: three games played, three wins, 1.33 goals against average, .951 save percentage.

Team of the Week

Center: Marcel Goc

Left Wing: Ilya Kovalchuk

Right Wing: Nathan Horton

Defenseman: Tobias Enstrom

Defenseman: Pavel Kubina

Goaltender: Marc-Andre Fleury

Our young gun spotlight goes to Patric Hornqvist for his seven-point effort in Nashville's dominance. The rookie is up to ten goals and will undoubtedly surpass 20 come April. It's not often that Shea Weber and Steve Sullivan aren't overshadowed by a freshman often but the Swede managed to do it.

Matt Stajan had his head down and the body usually follows in those moments. Johnny Boychuk lined him up delivering a perfect open-ice check tucking the shoulder in and taking aim at the body. A little bloodied, Stajan skated off on his own and returned to finish out the match Saturday. That's our hit of the week in case you're wondering.

Drew Miller, younger brother of Ryan, has picked up the pieces in Detroit and gave the Tampa Bay Lightning something to remember him by. Knocking down a long pass out of the air, he managed to contain the puck and make a sweet move to the backhand as Mike Smith went for a poke-check. You can see it below.

Gaffe of the week is automatically handed to Vesa Toskala for his latest glove misusing. Toronto was controlling play up until that mistake which gave Buffalo the lead and really grabbed the life out of the Maple Leafs. Better luck next time Vesa if there is a next time.

Congratulations are in order for Mike Brodeur earning his first NHL win over the weekend in Ottawa. The Canadian has a huge last name to live up to if he looks to resemble the other Brodeur. One victory down, 578 to go.

Finally, a bit of recommendation for fantasy poolies. Do not drop Marc-Andre Bergeron because of Andrei Markov's early return from injury. The defenseman is planning on being used as a fourth-line forward and remaining on the powerplay alongside Markov. This was the type of role Mark Streit excelled in a few years ago before becoming a well-known blue liner.

Can the Nashville Predators keep scoring like this?

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:45:17 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

Ryan Jones is riding a 4-game goal-scoring streak, but can the Nashville Predators maintain the offensive pace they've set over the last few weeks?

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One of the most enjoyable aspects of the current 5-0-1 run that the Nashville Predators are on is an unexpected surge in goal-scoring, which is coming from all four of the forward lines. Ryan Jones is working a 4-game streak, Patric Hornqvist reached double-digits with two goals in Edmonton last night, and both Martin Erat and Steve Sullivan have achieved hat tricks in recent days. Even Jerred Smithson and Joel Ward scored as well.

After trouncing the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4 at home Tuesday night, John Glennon started the post-game press conference by asking Barry Trotz if the team had transformed into an offensive dynamo. Trotz replied with a deadpan "No", for of course he doesn't want anybody to lose sight of the lunch-bucket mentality that is the hallmark of his coaching style.

But the question remains - how much of this current scoring trend is sustainable? Let's take a look...

The tool I'm going to use to dig into this question is called Shot Quality; the notion that each shot can be assigned a value between 0 and 1, which represents the chance that a shot of that type will result in a goal. The factors I'm using here are the distance from the net, the shot type (slap, wrist, backhand, etc.) and whether or not it is a rebound attempt.

For example, a wrist shot from between 10 and 20 feet out might have a 14% chance of resulting in a goal on a normal attempt, but if it's a rebound opportunity, that value jumps to 34%. If you sum up all the Shot Quality values for a given game, you get an Expected Goals figure, which reflects how many goals you should score based on average goaltending.

I'm also using only Even Strength play here, setting special teams aside for the moment.

Since 80% or so of an NHL game is spent at Even Strength, my question here is how many goals the Preds should be scoring, and how the bounces of any given game have worked out.

The graph below shows the actual Even Strength goals scored per game (in red), and the Expected Goals (in blue). The game numbers below the horizontal axis are the game ID's from NHL.com. As an example, last night in Edmonton the Preds scored 5 goals at Even Strength, but based on the total of Shot Quality, they should only have Expected to score 2.25.

So what does this tell us?

Preds finally getting a break

The first thing to note is that the last 9 games (starting with a 5-4 overtime loss at Minnesota) are the first stretch that has seen the Actual Goals exceed the Expected Goals for any length of time, with a difference of +14.33 total goals; in other words, the bounces are finally going their way. That makes up for the first 22 games of the season, which saw the Preds score 14.5 goals less than Expected. In the 35 games to date, they've scored 1.91 goals less than Expected at Even Strength, which isn't a significant deviation for the overall total.

Basically, this hot streak lately has balanced out some snake-bitten games early on (recall the 1-0 loss to Buffalo, for example). This tells us that we shouldn't bank on the guys earning Frosties for the fans again any time soon, as a good chunk of this recent production is simply a matter of luck.

These aren't last season's Predators

The good news, however, is that this team is generating scoring opportunities at a decent pace, and if the goaltending and team defense hold up, the Predators should be able to keep up an above-average Goals For/Against performance.

To date this season, the Preds are generating 2.11 Expected Goals per Game at Even Strength, good for 7th in the NHL. In 2008-9, that figure was just 1.83, which ranked 22nd. Thanks in large part to the return of Steve Sullivan and production outside the Top Six by guys like Hornqvist and Jones, the Preds are a significantly better offensive team this time around.

Caveats

Just to repeat, I'm looking only at Even Strength activity here; special teams warrant their own analysis, which will await another day. Also, the Shot Quality model I'm using is relatively crude compared to the latest tweaks discussed over at HockeyAnalytics.com (PDF). I'm just starting to get this stuff into database form where I can do this kind of analysis, and hope to flesh it out more thoroughly as the season progresses.

That said, this provides a more nuanced view of offensive performance than merely looking at shot totals.

Sullivan's hat trick leads Nashville to 5-3 win over Columbus

Dirk Hoag — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:17:20 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

Nashville Predators' Steve Sullivan, right, celebrates his third goal of the night against the Columbus Blue Jackets with teammates Dave Scatchard, left, and Martin Erat during the second period.

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Just 6 days after Martin Erat scored three goals against Vancouver, Steve Sullivan completed his first hat trick since December 14, 2006 to lead the Preds to a 5-3 victory in Columbus tonight. With the win, Nashville pushed its record to 12-3-2 in the last 17 games, leapfrogging Phoenix into 6th place in the Western Conference.

Follow after the jump, for video highlights, the recap, and the advanced even-strength stats...

This was an odd game, in that offensively, the Preds won a tremendous number of individual battles for the puck, but that was offset by an equally tremendous number of penalties; Columbus got seven power play chances on the night, which led to two of their goals.

The top line of Arnott, Erat and Sullivan dominated much of the 5-on-5 play, while David Legwand's line was able to keep things to a relatively standstill (great work by a shutdown line on the road). Ryan Jones was able to follow up on his 2-point night against Detroit with a tip-in of a Dan Hamhuis shot, but he did take two penalties and had a couple other golden opportunities to score go wide; yes, he scored, but I didn't think he had a particularly strong game.

Patric Hornqvist was excellent, however, and capitalized on some hard work On the Forecheck by Legwand that led to a turnover behind the Columbus net. He also drove towards the crease repeatedly and got roughed up several times for his reward.

In goal, Dan Ellis was good enough to keep the Blue Jackets at bay, steering rebounds off to the side during a few stretches when Columbus seized the momentum. He ended up with 28 saves on 31 Blue Jacket shots.

All in all, while not a perfect effort, the energy level was excellent, and seizing the advantage early in the game kept Nashville in the driver's seat all evening long. It was especially important to nail down the win in regulation against a conference rival, and avoid having to work overtime ahead of tomorrow night's home game with Tampa Bay.

Reminder: Tomorrow marks the end of Movember, so check out the Preds' mustaches and make your donation!

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Martin Erat	R	13:50	5	0	0	0	19	10	9	24	13	11
Jason Arnott	C	14:20	5	1	2	0	17	10	7	21	12	9
Steve Sullivan	L	14:10	1	0	0	0	16	11	5	20	13	7
David Legwand	C	13:34	1	0	0	0	5	4	1	8	11	-3
Joel Ward	R	11:47	1	1	0	0	4	6	-2	7	10	-3
Marcel Goc	C	10:19	0	1	1	0	8	3	5	13	8	5
Jerred Smithson	R	11:52	0	0	1	0	3	5	-2	4	11	-7
Ryan Jones	L	9:34	1	1	0	0	5	3	2	10	7	3
J P Dumont	R	10:36	0	1	0	0	6	3	3	9	7	2
Wade Belak	R	5:20	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	4	5	-1
Patric Hornqvist	R	6:10	4	1	0	0	7	2	5	9	5	4
Dave Scatchard	C	7:45	2	0	1	0	6	4	2	8	8	0
Shea Weber	D	15:59	0	0	0	0	9	9	0	14	11	3
Ryan Suter	D	15:23	1	0	1	1	9	8	1	13	10	3
Dan Hamhuis	D	15:26	1	0	0	0	16	6	10	20	14	6
Kevin Klein	D	16:28	2	0	1	2	18	7	11	22	16	6
Francis Bouillon	D	13:30	1	0	0	1	9	6	3	14	15	-1
Alexander Sulzer	D	11:19	2	0	0	3	7	5	2	11	11	0

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Steve Sullivan, 3 goals

25 votes

Steve Sullivan's mustache, team-leading $1,595 in "Movember"

42 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

Game 33 Recap: Sinking Ship

Clint Clark — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:00:19 -0000

It seems every game we've played in the last 4 weeks "we haven't found our legs". Every team has more legs than us. What gives? Do our players have legs? Are they so poorly conditioned that they can't keep up with most teams? Is our roster slow? Do other teams simply want it more? Nashville beat us decisively tonight 5-3. It wasn't that close

Nashville beats up because they are always skating. Their forwards are hungry and their defensemen are skilled. The top 3 defenders on Nashville would immediately be the best defensemen in Blue Jackets history. That's a major difference. Our ineptitude in our backend hints that there needs to be a shake up there. Our players do no generate speed through the neutral zone and break out passes aren't made. We don't have defenders join a rush in a meaningful way.

The play of our defensemen is in my opinion the single biggest reason we are in the place we are right now. Commodore is much much worse than the physical, positionally strong defender of last year. Jan Hejda looks like he wants every in the league to forget his name again. Tyutin has been puck clumsy. Methot hasn't taken a step. This team must be missing Christian Backman. Barf. This is by far the weakest part of our roster. A good defense beats a good offense.

Who on our defense is a scoring threat from the backend? Ignoring Russell's 3 week streak... the answer is simply nobody. That really sucks when your defense isn't shutting anyone down either. What are they good at?

Defensive turnovers (Mark Methot) lead to the first two goals. If I recall on the second two goals they were the result of terrible positioning of Mike Commodore.

What happened to our 5 on 5 hunger from last year? We overmatched most teams in 5 on 5 play last year. This year we can't put together two decent shifts.

Who played welll tonight?

Steve Sullivan is what is wrong with our team. He constantly is playing. He's always looking for a way to make a defense miserable. It doesn't matter how old or injured he is. He's a hungry guy, a guy that has built a career out of it.

I can't point out a single blue shirt that played a good game, maybe Umberger. I think it is time for some intervention. I'd hope we would have already pulled out the players only meeting at this point. The leaders of this team need to seriously step it up.

Doghouse: Hitch. Big Papi makes a lot of money.

While it feels like we are in a terrible spot.... we are in about the same place as last year. We simply have to stop this slide. We have to win games. We need to break out and put together a great stretch of hockey.

Comments? Fire Away

Game 33 Preview: Jackets in tough against the Preds

Mike MacLean — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:08:16 -0000

by Carlos Osorio - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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Every year I always seem to say this: those damned Preds! Nashville comes to town for the first time this season, after going 2-0 so far against the Jackets in Nashville. The Jackets have dug themselves in a hole whereby they have to win games from here out, plain and simple. They play in the best division in hockey so intra-division games are crucial.

Some lineup changes of note- Chimmer moves up with Vermmy and Nasher, and there's a new line of Modin, Brass and Torres. That one sounds interesting, a little bit of everything. With Dorsett out with a broken hand, Murray goes back into the lineup on the checking unit with Sammy and Boller. Mase gets the start against Rinne.

I can't stress the importance of these games. The Jackets desperately need to go on a winning streak, why not start tonight?

Fearless Prediction: A win, please.

Game Time: 7:00pm ET

Opponent's Blog: On the Forecheck

Game Page: Predators vs Blue Jackets Coverage

TSN Preview: Predators vs Blue Jackets Preview

TV: FSN Ohio

Radio: WBNS-AM (1460); WWCD-FM (101.1)

More after the jump...

From the Columbus Dispatch:

A meeting of polar opposites: The Blue Jackets are a skilled club that lacks resiliency and on-ice cohesion; the Predators make up for a lack of high-end talent with immense resolve. The previous two meetings, both in Nashville, ended in 4-3 shootout wins for the Predators. The Blue Jackets won all three meetings in Nationwide Arena last season.

Jackets Links:

Columbus Blue Jackets / Columbus Blue Jackets Schedule

Columbus Blue Jackets Roster / Columbus Blue Jackets Stats

Here are the lineups for tonight's tilt:

Columbus Blue Jackets

Jason Chimera	Antoine Vermette	Rick Nash
Kristian Huselius	R.J. Umberger	Jakub Voracek
Andrew Murray	Samuel Pahlsson	Jared Boll
Fredrik Modin	Derick Brassard	Raffi Torres

Fedor Tyutin	Anton Stralman
Mike Commodore	Jan Hejda
Kris Russell	Marc Methot

Steve Mason

Mathieu Garon

EXTRA: Michael Blunden, Mathieu Roy

INJURED: Rostislav Klesla, Derek Dorsett

Nashville Predators

Steve Sullivan	Jason Arnott	Martin Erat
Jerred Smithson	David Legwand	Joel Ward
Patric Hornqvist	Marcel Goc	J.P. Dumont
Wade Belak	Dave Scatchard	Ryan Jones

Shea Weber	Ryan Suter
Dan Hamhuis	Kevin Klein
Alexander Sulzer	Francis Bouillon

Pekka Rinne

Dan Ellis

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Predators continue home-ice dominance over Columbus in 4-3 shootout win

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:30:04 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne, of Finland, is congratulated by his teammates after the Predators won a shootout for a 4-3 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Browse more photos »

It took five rounds of a shootout, but the Nashville Predators beat Columbus on home ice for the 13th straight time, taking a 4-3 decision. Ryan Suter led all Preds scorers with two assists, in what was a relatively wide-open affair between two teams that normally prefer to play close, tight-checking games. With the win, Nashville is now 11-3-1 in their last 15 games.

Follow after the jump for video highlights, the recap, and advanced even-strength stats...

Despite the long-running success that the Predators have enjoyed over the Blue Jackets in Nashville, Columbus always seems to put up a tough fight. Three times tonight the Preds took a one-goal lead, and each time the Blue Jackets tied the game back up.

Dave Scatchard got the initial goal off a nice feed from Kevin Klein, a great way to celebrate his return to the lineup. He buzzed around the net whenever he could tonight, notching 4 shots in just 8:03 of ice time. After Columbus defenseman Kris Russel answered back early in the second, Martin Erat continued his torrid goal-scoring pace by following up on a rebound to put the Preds up 2-1. Marty's now got 9 goals in his last 11 games, and is officially "on fire" after a lousy start over his first 17.

Just minutes later, however, Raffi Torres banked a shot from just behind the goal line off of Pekka Rinne to tie the game back up at 2-2. What followed at the end of the 2nd was truly unusual for a Predators-Blue Jackets game. As explained by Terry Crisp in his intermission breakdown, Jason Arnott pulled a fast one, faking like he was going to the bench for a line change but circling back to take a lead pass from Shea Weber. He broke in all alone and lifted a nifty backhander of the glove of Mathieu Garon to put Nashville back up 3-2 with just seconds left in the period.

Rick Nash tied the game up at 3-3 early in the 3rd, and despite a number of good chances for both teams down the stretch and during overtime, they headed to the shootout, where Garon has enjoyed some great success over the years (in 2007-8, he went 10-0 for Edmonton in the shootout).

On the other hand, Rinne ain't so bad himself, going 5-2 last year with a .792 save percentage (a typical goalie is about .670 in that situation). After four rounds, each team had scored twice, but in Round 5, Rinne stuffed Antoine Vermette, leaving Steve Sullivan the opportunity to win the game, which he did with a nice forehand move to score the final goal.

The Preds move on now to Saturday night against Detroit, which is 4-5-1 in their last 10 and reeling from a number of injuries to key players.

For discounted tickets to any Nashville Predators home game, you can follow this link and use the special offer code "PREDS".

As to the advanced stats, the top line was definitely productive tonight for the Preds, while the Tootoo-Goc-Dumont line struggled a bit. Despite limited ice time, the Jones-Scatchard-Hornqvist trio acquitted themselves well, while perhaps the best effort overall goes to the defense duo of Dan Hamhuis and Kevin Klein (yes, the pair that got shredded so much during the early weeks of the season).

All in all, I'm sure Barry Trotz will have some finger-wagging for the boys tomorrow given the number of defensive breakdowns, but it was good to see enough scoring step up to seal the win. You can't plan on winning 2-1 every night...

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Martin Erat	R	15:49	3	1	0	1	13	10	3	19	16	3
Jason Arnott	C	17:27	4	1	0	2	13	12	1	17	18	-1
Steve Sullivan	L	16:21	2	0	0	0	14	9	5	18	17	1
David Legwand	C	18:04	2	0	2	1	7	4	3	17	10	7
Jerred Smithson	R	17:12	2	1	0	0	7	4	3	17	11	6
Joel Ward	R	18:12	1	1	2	0	8	5	3	17	10	7
Marcel Goc	C	12:41	0	0	0	0	3	7	-4	8	11	-3
Jordin Tootoo	R	10:46	1	0	0	0	3	7	-4	8	11	-3
J P Dumont	R	10:41	0	0	2	0	4	8	-4	8	12	-4
Patric Hornqvist	R	7:38	0	1	0	0	4	2	2	5	4	1
Ryan Jones	L	7:28	0	0	0	1	5	1	4	6	2	4
Dave Scatchard	C	7:54	3	0	0	0	5	1	4	7	3	4
Shea Weber	D	20:11	2	0	1	2	13	9	4	21	20	1
Ryan Suter	D	21:49	1	3	1	2	10	9	1	18	21	-3
Dan Hamhuis	D	20:15	0	0	1	1	12	5	7	21	8	13
Kevin Klein	D	20:19	4	1	2	0	10	5	5	19	9	10
Francis Bouillon	D	14:41	2	0	0	0	9	10	-1	13	17	-4
Alexander Sulzer	D	12:44	1	1	0	1	8	10	-2	12	15	-3

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Jason Arnott, 1 goal, shootout goal, 5 shots

37 votes

Pekka Rinne, 28 saves

25 votes

Ryan Suter, 2 assists

9 votes

Steve Sullivan, GW shootout goal

8 votes

79 votes | Poll has closed