SB Nation - Ryan Jones

Weekend notes: the AHL coming to OKC?

Dirk Hoag — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 14:17:47 -0000

I've just got a few items for you this morning, since we have an afternoon game on tap in Calgary (3:00 p.m. Central time). The preview is on the way.

After the jump, we have a possible explanation as to why Ryan Jones has taken so long to get rolling this season, word of a new AHL team possibly coming to another Sunbelt city, and a set of hockey player commercials that you aren't likely to see any time soon...

Predators News

Forbes does not think too highly of Predators fans - Nashville Predators Examiner
Jim Diamond takes Forbes to task for another or their link-bait "Best and Worst" articles.

Predators forward rewards team's patience - The Tennessean
John Glennon writes that a lost summer may have contributed to Ryan Jones' slow start this season.

Around the NHL

Can Habs' Markov Be Expected To Be The Team's Miracle Man - Habs Eyes On The Prize
Now that all their centennial celebrations are over, Montreal fans are stuck with a lousy hockey team. Can Andrei Markov fix that?

A Closer Look at Thrashers Shot Deficit - Bird Watchers Anonymous
An unusual trend is at play in Atlanta...

An Interview with Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett - The Copper & Blue
SB Nation's Edmonton blog discusses the potential for a new AHL affiliate for the Oilers in Oklahoma City.

Lastly, a little video entertainment for you from the guys at Bloge Salming... notice any Pred parallels in there?

Can the Nashville Predators keep scoring like this?

Dirk Hoag — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 21:45:17 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

Ryan Jones is riding a 4-game goal-scoring streak, but can the Nashville Predators maintain the offensive pace they've set over the last few weeks?

Browse more photos »

One of the most enjoyable aspects of the current 5-0-1 run that the Nashville Predators are on is an unexpected surge in goal-scoring, which is coming from all four of the forward lines. Ryan Jones is working a 4-game streak, Patric Hornqvist reached double-digits with two goals in Edmonton last night, and both Martin Erat and Steve Sullivan have achieved hat tricks in recent days. Even Jerred Smithson and Joel Ward scored as well.

After trouncing the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4 at home Tuesday night, John Glennon started the post-game press conference by asking Barry Trotz if the team had transformed into an offensive dynamo. Trotz replied with a deadpan "No", for of course he doesn't want anybody to lose sight of the lunch-bucket mentality that is the hallmark of his coaching style.

But the question remains - how much of this current scoring trend is sustainable? Let's take a look...

The tool I'm going to use to dig into this question is called Shot Quality; the notion that each shot can be assigned a value between 0 and 1, which represents the chance that a shot of that type will result in a goal. The factors I'm using here are the distance from the net, the shot type (slap, wrist, backhand, etc.) and whether or not it is a rebound attempt.

For example, a wrist shot from between 10 and 20 feet out might have a 14% chance of resulting in a goal on a normal attempt, but if it's a rebound opportunity, that value jumps to 34%. If you sum up all the Shot Quality values for a given game, you get an Expected Goals figure, which reflects how many goals you should score based on average goaltending.

I'm also using only Even Strength play here, setting special teams aside for the moment.

Since 80% or so of an NHL game is spent at Even Strength, my question here is how many goals the Preds should be scoring, and how the bounces of any given game have worked out.

The graph below shows the actual Even Strength goals scored per game (in red), and the Expected Goals (in blue). The game numbers below the horizontal axis are the game ID's from NHL.com. As an example, last night in Edmonton the Preds scored 5 goals at Even Strength, but based on the total of Shot Quality, they should only have Expected to score 2.25.

So what does this tell us?

Preds finally getting a break

The first thing to note is that the last 9 games (starting with a 5-4 overtime loss at Minnesota) are the first stretch that has seen the Actual Goals exceed the Expected Goals for any length of time, with a difference of +14.33 total goals; in other words, the bounces are finally going their way. That makes up for the first 22 games of the season, which saw the Preds score 14.5 goals less than Expected. In the 35 games to date, they've scored 1.91 goals less than Expected at Even Strength, which isn't a significant deviation for the overall total.

Basically, this hot streak lately has balanced out some snake-bitten games early on (recall the 1-0 loss to Buffalo, for example). This tells us that we shouldn't bank on the guys earning Frosties for the fans again any time soon, as a good chunk of this recent production is simply a matter of luck.

These aren't last season's Predators

The good news, however, is that this team is generating scoring opportunities at a decent pace, and if the goaltending and team defense hold up, the Predators should be able to keep up an above-average Goals For/Against performance.

To date this season, the Preds are generating 2.11 Expected Goals per Game at Even Strength, good for 7th in the NHL. In 2008-9, that figure was just 1.83, which ranked 22nd. Thanks in large part to the return of Steve Sullivan and production outside the Top Six by guys like Hornqvist and Jones, the Preds are a significantly better offensive team this time around.

Caveats

Just to repeat, I'm looking only at Even Strength activity here; special teams warrant their own analysis, which will await another day. Also, the Shot Quality model I'm using is relatively crude compared to the latest tweaks discussed over at HockeyAnalytics.com (PDF). I'm just starting to get this stuff into database form where I can do this kind of analysis, and hope to flesh it out more thoroughly as the season progresses.

That said, this provides a more nuanced view of offensive performance than merely looking at shot totals.

Sullivan's hat trick leads Nashville to 5-3 win over Columbus

Dirk Hoag — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:17:20 -0000

More photos » by Jay LaPrete - AP

Nashville Predators' Steve Sullivan, right, celebrates his third goal of the night against the Columbus Blue Jackets with teammates Dave Scatchard, left, and Martin Erat during the second period.

Browse more photos »

Just 6 days after Martin Erat scored three goals against Vancouver, Steve Sullivan completed his first hat trick since December 14, 2006 to lead the Preds to a 5-3 victory in Columbus tonight. With the win, Nashville pushed its record to 12-3-2 in the last 17 games, leapfrogging Phoenix into 6th place in the Western Conference.

Follow after the jump, for video highlights, the recap, and the advanced even-strength stats...

This was an odd game, in that offensively, the Preds won a tremendous number of individual battles for the puck, but that was offset by an equally tremendous number of penalties; Columbus got seven power play chances on the night, which led to two of their goals.

The top line of Arnott, Erat and Sullivan dominated much of the 5-on-5 play, while David Legwand's line was able to keep things to a relatively standstill (great work by a shutdown line on the road). Ryan Jones was able to follow up on his 2-point night against Detroit with a tip-in of a Dan Hamhuis shot, but he did take two penalties and had a couple other golden opportunities to score go wide; yes, he scored, but I didn't think he had a particularly strong game.

Patric Hornqvist was excellent, however, and capitalized on some hard work On the Forecheck by Legwand that led to a turnover behind the Columbus net. He also drove towards the crease repeatedly and got roughed up several times for his reward.

In goal, Dan Ellis was good enough to keep the Blue Jackets at bay, steering rebounds off to the side during a few stretches when Columbus seized the momentum. He ended up with 28 saves on 31 Blue Jacket shots.

All in all, while not a perfect effort, the energy level was excellent, and seizing the advantage early in the game kept Nashville in the driver's seat all evening long. It was especially important to nail down the win in regulation against a conference rival, and avoid having to work overtime ahead of tomorrow night's home game with Tampa Bay.

Reminder: Tomorrow marks the end of Movember, so check out the Preds' mustaches and make your donation!

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Martin Erat	R	13:50	5	0	0	0	19	10	9	24	13	11
Jason Arnott	C	14:20	5	1	2	0	17	10	7	21	12	9
Steve Sullivan	L	14:10	1	0	0	0	16	11	5	20	13	7
David Legwand	C	13:34	1	0	0	0	5	4	1	8	11	-3
Joel Ward	R	11:47	1	1	0	0	4	6	-2	7	10	-3
Marcel Goc	C	10:19	0	1	1	0	8	3	5	13	8	5
Jerred Smithson	R	11:52	0	0	1	0	3	5	-2	4	11	-7
Ryan Jones	L	9:34	1	1	0	0	5	3	2	10	7	3
J P Dumont	R	10:36	0	1	0	0	6	3	3	9	7	2
Wade Belak	R	5:20	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	4	5	-1
Patric Hornqvist	R	6:10	4	1	0	0	7	2	5	9	5	4
Dave Scatchard	C	7:45	2	0	1	0	6	4	2	8	8	0
Shea Weber	D	15:59	0	0	0	0	9	9	0	14	11	3
Ryan Suter	D	15:23	1	0	1	1	9	8	1	13	10	3
Dan Hamhuis	D	15:26	1	0	0	0	16	6	10	20	14	6
Kevin Klein	D	16:28	2	0	1	2	18	7	11	22	16	6
Francis Bouillon	D	13:30	1	0	0	1	9	6	3	14	15	-1
Alexander Sulzer	D	11:19	2	0	0	3	7	5	2	11	11	0

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Steve Sullivan, 3 goals

25 votes

Steve Sullivan's mustache, team-leading $1,595 in "Movember"

42 votes

67 votes | Poll has closed

Game 33 Preview: Jackets in tough against the Preds

Mike MacLean — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 20:08:16 -0000

by Carlos Osorio - ASSOCIATED PRESS

View full size photo »

Every year I always seem to say this: those damned Preds! Nashville comes to town for the first time this season, after going 2-0 so far against the Jackets in Nashville. The Jackets have dug themselves in a hole whereby they have to win games from here out, plain and simple. They play in the best division in hockey so intra-division games are crucial.

Some lineup changes of note- Chimmer moves up with Vermmy and Nasher, and there's a new line of Modin, Brass and Torres. That one sounds interesting, a little bit of everything. With Dorsett out with a broken hand, Murray goes back into the lineup on the checking unit with Sammy and Boller. Mase gets the start against Rinne.

I can't stress the importance of these games. The Jackets desperately need to go on a winning streak, why not start tonight?

Fearless Prediction: A win, please.

Game Time: 7:00pm ET

Opponent's Blog: On the Forecheck

Game Page: Predators vs Blue Jackets Coverage

TSN Preview: Predators vs Blue Jackets Preview

TV: FSN Ohio

Radio: WBNS-AM (1460); WWCD-FM (101.1)

More after the jump...

From the Columbus Dispatch:

A meeting of polar opposites: The Blue Jackets are a skilled club that lacks resiliency and on-ice cohesion; the Predators make up for a lack of high-end talent with immense resolve. The previous two meetings, both in Nashville, ended in 4-3 shootout wins for the Predators. The Blue Jackets won all three meetings in Nationwide Arena last season.

Jackets Links:

Columbus Blue Jackets / Columbus Blue Jackets Schedule

Columbus Blue Jackets Roster / Columbus Blue Jackets Stats

Here are the lineups for tonight's tilt:

Columbus Blue Jackets

Jason Chimera	Antoine Vermette	Rick Nash
Kristian Huselius	R.J. Umberger	Jakub Voracek
Andrew Murray	Samuel Pahlsson	Jared Boll
Fredrik Modin	Derick Brassard	Raffi Torres

Fedor Tyutin	Anton Stralman
Mike Commodore	Jan Hejda
Kris Russell	Marc Methot

Steve Mason

Mathieu Garon

EXTRA: Michael Blunden, Mathieu Roy

INJURED: Rostislav Klesla, Derek Dorsett

Nashville Predators

Steve Sullivan	Jason Arnott	Martin Erat
Jerred Smithson	David Legwand	Joel Ward
Patric Hornqvist	Marcel Goc	J.P. Dumont
Wade Belak	Dave Scatchard	Ryan Jones

Shea Weber	Ryan Suter
Dan Hamhuis	Kevin Klein
Alexander Sulzer	Francis Bouillon

Pekka Rinne

Dan Ellis

Nashville Predators battle back before falling to Detroit in OT, 3-2

Dirk Hoag — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 06:06:14 -0000

More photos » by Kate Humphrey - AP

Nashville Predators defenseman Shea Weber, right, checks Detroit Red Wings center Kris Draper off the puck in the second period.

Browse more photos »

Tonight's game had all the drama of a roller coaster for the Nashville Predators; lots of ups and downs, and unfortunately the excitement ended all too early, as Todd Bertuzzi scored his second goal of the night, the game winner, just 24 seconds into the overtime period in a 3-2 loss.

It wasn't all bad news, however, as the biggest crowd of the season (16,673) saw the home team fight back from a 2-0 deficit to force the OT. Follow after the jump for video highlights, the recap, and advanced even-strength statistics...

This was an odd game for a number of reasons. Sometimes, the officials called things by the book, while at other times they let a lot of back & forth stuff go. We had Dan Hamhuis swiping a puck off the goal line that got behind Pekka Rinne, and Jordin Tootoo limping off the ice after taking a Shea Weber shot off the foot.

You have to love the NHL's non-disclosure rules about injuries, by the way. In the post-game press conference, all Barry Trotz would say about Tootoo was "somewhere on the body, hopefully not broken." Way to narrow it down, coach!

Anyways, the story of the game was that the Red Wings, even though they played an overtime game the night before, came out blazing, outshooting the Preds 14-5 in the first period, but miraculously not scoring. Early in the second they took the lead on spinning backhander by Todd Bertuzzi, then followed it up later when Drew Miller batted in a puck that bounced off the crossbar, and made it 2-0.

From that point on, however, the Preds battled back. A power play goal by Ryan Jones (his first of the season, in what was by far his best game) got Nashville on the board a couple minutes later, and they ended up outshooting Detroit 19-8 in the second period. Early in the 3rd David Legwand tied it up by gathering in a loose puck as J.P. Dumont carried it through the slot and created havoc for the Red Wings defense.

That was good enough to get Nashville to overtime, but a bad turnover by Leggy just inside the Detroit blueline gave Bertuzzi a rush the other way, and Kevin Klein never could catch up well enough to stop his shot. Before folks even had time to settle in for the OT, it was all over, just 24 seconds in.

All in all, though, the Preds should consider themselves fortunate to get the single point in the standings for the OT loss. Over the course of the season, a team needs to eke out a few points on nights when they don't play their best, and tonight they just dug themselves too deep a hole in what was often an emotional game between bitter rivals.

Shea Weber, in particular, seemed especially charged up for Detroit, perhaps a bit too much so. He took 3 penalties on the night, which may not sound unusual for such a physical defenseman. Those were his first penalties, however, since October 22nd at Ottawa, a span of 20 games without sitting in the box. That's a remarkable achievement for a guy who consistently plays anywhere from 22 to 25 minutes a night against elite opponents. A hallmark of the Predators' success in recent weeks has been their ability to avoid needless penalties, and tip the special teams balance in their favor.

Despite taking the loss, Rinne was excellent in stopping 26 Detroit shots. The first Bertuzzi goal looked bad but the shot clearly caught both he and defenseman Ryan Suter off-guard, and he stopped several other dangerous chances for Detroit to make up for it.

Looking at the stats from tonight, Patric Hornqvist and Ryan Jones jumped out as having excellent nights. Not only did they create a number of good scoring chances, but their pure hustle created 3 of Nashville's 4 power plays as Jones drew two calls, and Hornqvist one. Dumont also had a good night helping to set teammates up for shots as he drew the attention of the Red Wing defense constantly.

The Preds' next game is in Columbus on Monday, before returning home to face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday.

Even Strength		Individual Totals					Team Totals While Player Is On Ice
Player	Pos	EV TOI	Shots	Shts Blkd	Missed Shts	Blocks	SOG For	SOG Ag	SOG +/-	Tot SF	Tot SA	Corsi
Martin Erat	R	14:37	1	0	1	0	10	8	2	15	17	-2
Jason Arnott	C	15:11	3	2	1	0	12	10	2	18	18	0
Steve Sullivan	L	14:51	4	0	0	0	12	9	3	16	16	0
David Legwand	C	12:58	1	0	0	0	8	5	3	11	9	2
Jerred Smithson	R	11:29	0	0	0	0	2	4	-2	3	10	-7
Joel Ward	R	12:38	0	0	0	1	2	4	-2	2	12	-10
Marcel Goc	C	11:52	2	0	1	1	6	4	2	7	12	-5
Jordin Tootoo	R	1:19	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1
J P Dumont	R	11:06	1	2	0	0	11	5	6	14	9	5
Patric Hornqvist	R	9:06	3	0	0	0	9	4	5	13	5	8
Ryan Jones	L	12:16	2	1	0	0	12	5	7	15	9	6
Dave Scatchard	C	6:13	0	0	0	0	5	1	4	6	3	3
Shea Weber	D	17:15	3	0	0	2	15	6	9	21	16	5
Ryan Suter	D	16:57	4	1	0	0	15	6	9	21	15	6
Dan Hamhuis	D	18:15	1	1	0	1	7	9	-2	11	18	-7
Kevin Klein	D	17:57	1	0	0	6	5	9	-4	9	18	-9
Cody Franson	D	8:43	2	0	0	1	8	5	3	8	8	0
Francis Bouillon	D	10:42	1	0	0	0	11	5	6	11	8	3

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Ryan Jones, 1 G, 1 A, 2 penalties drawn

42 votes

Pekka Rinne, 26 saves

17 votes

59 votes | Poll has closed

Game 31: Jackets take on the Preds in Nashville

Mike MacLean — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:01:17 -0000

by Jay LaPrete - AP

View full size photo »

This is a good day. I just had a fantastic day at work, the Jackets are coming off a huge win last night, where they looked like the team they should be. Mase was stellar, let's see if Garon can turn his game around tonight against those damned Predators. The Preds definitely have the Jackets number, especially in Nashville. I look for a typical Jackets/Preds game tonight, one with tight checking, maybe a scrap or two (if our guys have the green light to do so) and some timely goals. A score of 1-0 or 2-1 could happen.

The Preds are one of those teams that always gets it done, no matter who is on the ice. I credit GM David Poile and coach Barry Trotz for that. I would love for the kind of long-term consistency from Howson and Hitch that those two gentleman have supplied. Pekka Rinne is the straw that stirs the drink in Nashville. In my opinion he is the future of Finnish goaltending. Backstrom and Kipper are the top dogs now, but Rinne will be a great goaltender for a long time. Add to that a fun rivalry with Steve Mason, and we could be seeing a genuine goaltending battle year-in and year-out between these clubs.

The Jackets aren't making any major lineup changes with the exception of Garon getting the start. The line of Chimmer, Umby and Jake looked dangerous on almost every shift last night, and I look for them to continue that tonight. One guy who really needs to step it up is Rick Nash. Even last night, to me he was the guy who looked the worst. He was committing turnovers, and I think he is really pressing. Seemingly every time he had the puck in the offensive zone he was going with the slapper, very unlike the Captain. I would like to see he and Brass play together for a bit to see if that will spark him. Vermmy doesn't seem to be the right fit for Nasher.

Fearless Prediction: The run of bad play in Nashville has to end sometime right? Jackets win, Chimmer continues his hot streak.

Game Time: 8:00pm ET

Opponent's Blog: On the Forecheck

Game Page: Blue Jackets vs Predators coverage

TSN Preview: Blue Jackets vs Predators Preview

TV: FSN Ohio

Radio: WBNS-AM (1460); WWCD-FM (101.1)

More after the jump...

From the Columbus Dispatch:

Gaylord Entertainment Center. Sommet Center. Nashville Arena. Doesn't matter what it's named, it's a house of horrors for the Blue Jackets, who are 0-10-2 in Nashville since April 3, 2006. The Jackets blew leads of 1-0 and 2-1 and lost 4-3 in a shootout Nov. 21 in Nashville.

Jackets Links:

Columbus Blue Jackets / Columbus Blue Jackets Schedule

Columbus Blue Jackets Roster / Columbus Blue Jackets Stats

Here are the lineups for tonight's tilt:

Columbus Blue Jackets

Kristian Huselius	Antoine Vermette	Rick Nash
Jason Chimera	R.J. Umberger	Jakub Voracek
Andrew Murray	Samuel Pahlsson	Jared Boll
Raffi Torres	Derick Brassard	Derek Dorsett

Fedor Tyutin	Anton Stralman
Mike Commodore	Jan Hejda
Kris Russell	Marc Methot

Mathieu Garon

Steve Mason

EXTRA: Mike Blunden, Mathieu Roy, Derek MacKenzie

INJURED: Fredrik Modin, Rostislav Klesla

Nashville Predators

Steve Sullivan	Jason Arnott	Martin Erat
Jerred Smithson	David Legwand	Joel Ward
Jordin Tootoo	Marcel Goc	J.P. Dumont
Ryan Jones	Cal O'Reilly	Patric Hornqvist

Shea Weber	Ryan Suter
Francis Bouillon	Alexander Sulzer
Kevin Klein	Dan Hamhuis

Pekka Rinne

Dan Ellis

Nashville Predators to recall Ryan Jones

Dirk Hoag — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 22:04:04 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

2 months ago: Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller (30), Nashville Predators right wing Ryan Jones, center, and Sabres center Derek Roy (9) watch the puck after Miller blocked a shot in the first period of an NHL hockey game in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

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From John Glennon's blog:

Forward Dave Scatchard has been sent back to Nashville to have an upper-body looked at by doctors. The injury kept him out of the last two games. Ryan Jones will be recalled from Milwaukee to take Scatchard's place on the roster.

After earning a new two-year, one-way contract this summer, Jones failed to make an impression in training camp and was sent to Milwaukee just a few weeks into the season. Will he seize the opportunity this time around?

Ryan Jones

#28 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 206

Born: Jun 14, 1984

Glennon also reports, to little surprise, that Dan Ellis is expected to start tomorrow against Chicago.

Monday's news: Is a Nashville Predator on the trade block?

Dirk Hoag — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 14:36:50 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

While the Nashville Predators celebrated Saturday night's 2-0 win, the Montreal Canadiens and their fans were left with some uncomfortable questions.

Browse more photos »

Are you ready for the work week? That's OK, neither am I; but we're here anyway, so get your day started with some NHL news and notes.

After the jump, we've got an update on how the Nashville Predators prospects are doing, rumors of a winger on the trade block, and the Montreal perspective on Saturday's rapid-fire performance by the Preds....

Predators News

See Puck City: Hey, Kovalchuk...it's safer to park your car outside in Nashville!
Some wild, dreamy stuff, but it's fun to consider!

Should Preds stick with Santorelli or make change? - Predators Insider
John Glennon considers the roster implications of Colin Wilson's return later this week; should he go to the AHL for a conditioning stint, or do you send someone like Santorelli down to make room?

Predator prospects roundup - Nashville Predators Examiner
Jim Diamond provides his weekly update on how the sprouts are growing down on the farm...

Monster contract coming - Ottawa Sun
Bruce Garrioch writes that the Preds are trying to deal Ryan Jones. I wouldn't be surprised at all, considering the way Jones has plummeted down the depth chart for Nashville. His one-way contract (which has him earning NHL money while in the minors) is also a financial millstone for the club. Might Dallas be interested in him as a gritty depth forward as part of a deal for Fabian Brunnstrom? While I doubt the Stars are looking for a winger in return for the young Swede, it makes for an enticing possibility.

Around the NHL

Carey Price's Record Tying Performance Under The Microscope - Habs Eyes On The Prize
The Montreal perspective on Saturday night's win by the Preds, drilling into the details of Carey Price's heroic effort in the Habs' net.

NHL Average Attendance since 1989-90 - Andrew's Dallas Stars page
An interesting look at league-wide attendance over the years.

What Has Happened to Brent Burns? | Pucks Gone Wild
Last year, this young Minnesota Wild defenseman was considered a rising star, but so far this season has been a disaster. Has he regressed, or is he being dragged down by an awful team?

Rossi: Give trap its due respect - Pittsburgh Tribune-Review
With New Jersey coming to town on Thursday, Rob Rossi's tribute to the work of Devils coach Jacques Lemaire makes for timely reading (via Kukla's Korner).

A quick look at shot differential - From The Rink
James provides the Shots For & Against totals for each team in the league, as a rough estimator of overall team quality (at least of the skaters, obviously goaltending is left out). The Preds fare quite well here...

Grading the Nashville Predators: the forwards

Dirk Hoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:16:52 -0000

More photos » by Frederick Breedon - AP

about 1 month ago: Nashville Predators right wing Patric Hornqvist (27) shoots the puck over Dallas Stars goaltender Alex Auld, right, to score the game-winning goal during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Nashville, Tenn., Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Frederick Breedon)

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It's been delayed a bit, but I wanted to wrap up the early-season grades for the Nashville Predators by concluding with the forwards. If you want to read about the defense and goaltending, those posts went up last week.

Let's get on with it then, how have the Preds forwards done so far?

All the detailed stats are down at the bottom for those interested; I'll keep the analysis and grades up top. Starting with the top line guys and working our way down...

Jason Arnott

#19 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-5

Weight: 220

Born: Oct 11, 1974

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Jason Arnott	9	3	2	5	0	2	1	0	0	0	34	8.8

The season started off well for the team captain, as he potted a power play goal just two minutes into the first game, and appeared to have picked up right where he left off at the end of last season, when he carried the Preds offensively down the stretch. An arm injury cost him a few games, however, and he has yet to round back into top form since returning to the lineup last Tuesday in Anaheim. One encouraging sign is that Arnott has only taken one minor penalty to date; given the team's struggles to score goals, they need to tilt the special teams balance in their favor as much as possible.

Jason Arnott's grade: B

J.P. Dumont

#71 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 219

Born: Apr 01, 1978

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - J.P. Dumont	9	3	8	11	3	4	0	0	0	0	19	15.8

When healthy, Dumont has been a dynamo, and despite missing a few games, leads the team in scoring. Some may point to his 5-point night in Ottawa as padding his stats, but since the Preds won that game 6-5 I'd say they needed every last contribution that J.P. provided. When he get knocked out of the opening game by Stephane Robidas, there was concern that Dumont might feel lingering effects for a long time, like last season when a similar in a game against Vancouver led to decreased production for weeks afterward. While a second injury has kept him out of recent games, the hope is that he returns to the lineup this week, when we can finally see the top line that was intended coming out of training camp.

J.P. Dumont's grade: A-

Steve Sullivan

#26 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 5-9

Weight: 173

Born: Jul 06, 1974

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Steve Sullivan	15	2	3	5	-4	2	0	0	0	0	25	8.0

Without his linemates Dumont and Arnott, Sully has struggled mightily to produce consistently so far. Often he's felt the need to stick-handle the puck through multiple defenders to create a scoring chance, which rarely works for even the best of players. What's become apparent is that rather then driving the Nashville attack, what we can hope for with Sully is that he complements Dumont and Arnott well enough to fill out a top line.

Steve Sullivan's grade: C+

Patric Hornqvist

#27 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 5-11

Weight: 186

Born: Jan 01, 1987

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Patric Hornqvist	15	3	5	8	3	8	0	0	2	0	55	5.5

Hornqvist got off to a great start filling in for Dumont on the top line, but his production has dried up lately, with just 1 goal and no assists in his last 7 games. While he's tilting the ice in the right direction in terms of Shots For & Against, he needs to finish off his opportunities more often to stay in the lineup as injured players return. That 5.5% Shooting Percentage needs to be doubled if he wants to earn a job as a Top Six winger.

Patric Hornqvist's grade: B

David Legwand

#11 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-2

Weight: 202

Born: Aug 17, 1980

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - David Legwand	15	0	4	4	-6	8	0	0	0	0	22	0.0

With 3 assists in his last 5 games, there's hope that Legwand is finally sparking to life, but it's been a very disappointing start so far. Which is worse; that Leggy is taking fewer shots per game than he ever has before, or the fact that not a single one of them has gone in the net? Often lauded as a two-way center, the offensive side of that description has dropped off the charts. He's had his power play time cut considerably, and probably the only portion of the game we can really give good credit for is on the penalty kill, where his results are decent enough.

For $5 million this year, however, Preds fans should expect much, much more. Even allowing for defensive responsibilities, Legwand should be able to produce at more than a 21-point pace.

David Legwand's Grade: D

Martin Erat

#10 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-0

Weight: 203

Born: Aug 29, 1981

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Martin Erat	12	1	2	3	-8	10	0	0	0	0	23	4.3

If Legwand's start is mystifying, than Erat's has to be infuriating. His lone goal wasn't even intended to be a shot on net, it deflected in off a defenseman's skate. At $5.25 million this season, Preds fans should expect a whole lot more. For an exercise in anger, consult the tables below and try to determine whether you're more disappointed in his 5-on-5 or 5-on-4 work. And before we hear the excuse about his defensive assignments, just look at the disastrous Goals Against/60 below, especially when compared with Goals For.

Martin Erat's grade: D-

Joel Ward

#29 / Right Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 220

Born: Dec 02, 1980

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Joel Ward	13	2	3	5	-1	4	1	0	1	0	21	9.5

At least Joel Ward had a good reason for a slow start; groin trouble kept him out of much of training camp, and the first two games of the season. With 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games, Ward is asserting himself offensively recently; we'll need to see, however, if he keeps getting good PP time once Dumont & Wilson are back in the lineup.

On the downside, Ward is a key part of a penalty killing unit which has struggled so far. With the Preds destined to be a low-scoring team once again, they need the PK to rank among the NHL elite as they usually do.

Joel Ward's grade: C+

Colin Wilson

#33 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 213

Born: Oct 20, 1989

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Colin Wilson	10	1	1	2	-1	0	0	0	0	0	14	7.1

While giving fans the occasional dazzling play, Wilson hasn't been able to translate those opportunities into goals quite yet. Expectations need to managed in his rookie season, however, as making the jump from the NCAA is especially difficult for a young player. I suspect that the best is yet to come, once the top line is reunited and Wilson can get more opportunistic matchups against 3rd- and 4th-line opponents.

Colin Wilson's grade: B

Michael Santorelli

#18 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-0

Weight: 189

Born: Dec 14, 1985

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Michael Santorelli	10	1	1	2	-3	4	0	0	0	0	22	4.5

It's been hard to find the right spot for Santorelli within this lineup. Should he play on the wing, or at center? Can he round out a scoring line, or should he anchor a depth line instead? What the Preds are hoping is that don't have a "tweener" here, a guy who dominates the AHL but can't make an impact in the NHL. Despite having played only 4 games with Milwaukee this season, he's that team's leading goal scorer so far, but he can't seem to put the puck in the net for Nashville.

Mike Santorelli's grade: C-

Dave Scatchard

#38 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Born: Feb 20, 1976

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Dave Scatchard	8	0	2	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	14	0.0

He generated considerable buzz alongside Colin Wilson and Patric Hornqvist for a few games, but his main contribution has been on the defensive side of the puck; his Goals Against/60 both in 5-on-5 and the PK are best on the team, and that kind of work will certainly keep him in the lineup.

Dave Scatchard's grade: B+

Cal O`Reilly

#16 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-0

Weight: 187

Born: Sep 30, 1986

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Cal O`Reilly	6	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	0.0

Unlike his opportunity last season, Cal just hasn't clicked in his limited NHL work so far this year. He's doing better down at Milwaukee, but is now looking up at both Santorelli and Wilson on the depth chart. Since he has a two-way contract this season, he might not be back up in Nashville for a while.

Cal O'Reilly's grade: C-

Ryan Jones

#28 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 206

Born: Jun 14, 1984

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Ryan Jones	8	0	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	0	7	0.0

8 games and 0 points for Nashville, 5 games and 0 points for Milwaukee. What a free-fall this is, considering he just signed a new two-year contract over the summer.

Ryan Jones' grade: E

Jerred Smithson

#25 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-3

Weight: 204

Born: Feb 04, 1979

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Jerred Smithson	15	3	0	3	3	18	0	2	1	0	11	27.3

His game-winning goal against Minnesota is probably Nashville's highlight of the season so far, but to be fair we do need to ding him as the lead forward on what has been a lousy PK so far (24th in the NHL). I'll be OK with him not scoring another goal all year, if he can help lead this bunch back into the Top 10 in shorthanded play.

Jerred Smithson's grade: B-

Marcel Goc

#9 / Center / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 200

Born: Aug 24, 1983

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Marcel Goc	14	0	1	1	-2	4	0	0	0	0	17	0.0

Goc is a really interesting case; a good skater, hard worker, and decent PK man, Marcel is also a reliable faceoff man, taking many late-game draws when Nashville holds a lead. He draws raves from observers for his hockey smarts, but in the end, he doesn't put up notable results. I guess it's a matter of expectations; if all you're looking for is a 4th-line guy who won't score but can help plug some of the holes that you don't want rookies like Wilson to fill, then Goc could serve a useful purpose on this team.

Marcel Goc's grade: C+

Here are the main numbers from Behind the Net, starting with 5-on-5 play:

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	RATING	QUALCOMP	QUALTEAM	PTS/60	GFON/60	GAON/60	+/- per 60
Jason Arnott	C	8	14.7	1.6	0.19	0.39	2.0	2.6	2.6	0.0
Martin Erat	RW	11	14.6	-3.0	0.00	-0.25	0.4	0.4	3.4	-3.0
Steve Sullivan	C	14	14.5	-0.7	0.16	0.55	1.2	2.1	3.3	-1.2
David Legwand	C	14	14.5	-1.1	-0.06	-0.39	0.9	1.2	2.7	-1.5
Patric Hornqvist	LW	14	13.8	2.8	-0.01	0.38	2.5	3.1	1.9	1.3
J.P. Dumont	RW	9	13.4	2.3	0.11	0.06	3.0	3.0	1.5	1.5
Joel Ward	RW	12	13.2	0.6	0.14	-0.25	0.4	1.5	2.3	-0.8
Mike Santorelli	C	9	13.2	-2.8	-0.20	-0.51	0.0	0.0	3.0	-3.0
Dave Scatchard	C	7	13.0	1.4	-0.16	0.76	0.7	1.3	0.7	0.7
Colin Wilson	C	10	11.7	1.5	0.00	0.49	1.0	1.5	1.5	0.0
Cal O'Reilly	C	6	10.5	0.3	-0.05	0.63	0.0	3.8	3.8	0.0
Marcel Goc	C	13	9.5	-0.7	-0.33	0.03	0.5	1.0	2.0	-1.0
Jerred Smithson	C	14	9.4	0.9	-0.24	-0.46	0.5	1.4	1.4	0.0
Ryan Jones	LW	8	8.1	-0.9	-0.59	-0.32	0.0	0.0	1.9	-1.9

And on the power play (5-on-4 only), we have:

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GOALS/60	Assist/60	GFON/60
Jason Arnott	C	9	3.7	1.8	0.0	1.8
Steve Sullivan	C	15	3.3	0.0	1.2	2.4
Patric Hornqvist	LW	15	3.2	0.0	0.0	2.5
Martin Erat	RW	12	2.7	0.0	1.9	1.9
J.P. Dumont	RW	9	2.0	0.0	9.8	9.8
Joel Ward	RW	13	2.0	2.3	0.0	4.6
Cal O'Reilly	C	6	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Colin Wilson	C	10	1.8	0.0	0.0	3.3
David Legwand	C	15	1.5	0.0	0.0	5.5
Mike Santorelli	C	10	1.3	0.0	0.0	4.5
Ryan Jones	LW	8	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

And lastly, the 4-on-5 Penalty Kill:

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GAON/60
Jerred Smithson	C	15	2.31	13.8
Joel Ward	RW	13	2.04	11.3
David Legwand	C	15	1.82	6.61
Dave Scatchard	C	8	1.42	0
Marcel Goc	C	14	1.38	9.33
Martin Erat	RW	12	0.71	0

Are the Nashville Predators taking a big risk with just a 20-man roster?

Dirk Hoag — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:31:44 -0000

More photos » by Frederick Breedon - AP

With the Nashville Predators dressing a bare-minimum lineup tonight, it's surprising that winger Ryan Jones remains in the AHL.

Browse more photos »

Eric at Admirals Short Shifts raises an interesting question that has indeed been largely overlooked in Nashville Predators coverage this week - should the front office come under fire for taking a lineup of only 18 skaters into Anaheim tonight? If a player fell ill or got injured in the morning skate, Nashville would be left short-staffed. Eric writes,

Freak accidents happen. I believe it is irresponsible of David Poile to allow the Predators to walk into the Honda Center with only 18 skaters. The Predators finished ONE WIN behind Columbus last season - and missed the playoffs. Wouldn't it be a shame to basically give up the chance at a win by only skating 17 players against Anaheim? Especially given the fact that it is completely unneccessary?

The Milwaukee Admirals exist to provide the Predators with players. Why not use them when needed? Tell Peter Olvecky to get on a plane. "Sorry, buddy - you're not gonna play...but we need you here just in case."

What does this decision (or lack of one) tell us about the state of the organization right now? Let's consider that question after the jump...

An extremely short bench for tonight

What adds to the danger of the present situation is that we have two players just now returning to the lineup tonight in Jason Arnott and Jordin Tootoo, so you always have concern that they might not be 100% up to speed. In fact, Barry Trotz already admitted as such regarding Tootoo, who has yet to play in the regular season. So really, they've got 17.5 players.

Add to that the fact that Wade Belak averages just 4:24 per game of ice time, and it's looking like we'll see three forward lines pretty much all night, and just hope one of the defenseman doesn't get hurt. Trust me, I know they've talked up Belak as an emergency option there, but you don't want him on the ice defending against the likes of Corey Perry or Teemu Selanne.

Can the Predators compete with a short bench like this? Maybe under normal circumstances, but with three key forwards and their top defenseman out, it'll be tough.This is what they're running with up front:

Sullivan - Arnott - Hornqvist

Scatchard - Santorelli - Thuresson

Smithson- Legwand - Ward

Tootoo - Goc - Belak

After that top line, the rest of the forwards have combined for 5 goals this season, and three of those come from Jerred Smithson. It's too bad, because Anaheim is a very beatable team right now; you'd think the Preds would give themselves the best chance at victory here.

The numbers aren't the problem

NHL teams can carry an active roster of 23 players, which would normally include 21 skaters, enough for 3 to be scratched each night. Nashville is not alone in carrying less than the 23-man limit; many do it to manage their salary cap situation, others because that extra marginal player is probably better off playing regularly in the minors than watching from the press box.

It's not as if Nashville is up against the roster limit due to injury, either. While J.P. Dumont and Colin Wilson are expected to return to action soon, certainly Shea Weber could be put on Injured Reserve (which would require him to miss tonight and Saturday's games) if they needed to make room. They could have done so with Martin Erat as well, and backdated his IR statust to last Thursday just prior to the home game against Chicago.

So the team has the roster spot available to call someone up - why haven't they?

The obvious call-up candidate, denied

To me, what this situation really shows is the profound disappointment that surrounds Ryan Jones. Awarded a new two-year, one-way contract over the summer, Jones has failed to make an impact so far this season and is toiling away in Milwaukee (with 0 points in 4 games) making nearly $1 million. The Preds could have called him up without costing themselves an extra dime of salary, and he's not eligible yet for waivers, so there's no risk of losing him. Despite glaring holes on the wing, the Predators have instead chosen to keep him in the AHL.

If I were part of the Nashville ownership group, I'd certainly expect a good, thorough answer as to why Jones is still in the organization at all, if he can't help out in a situation like this.

Ryan Jones

#28 / Left Wing / Nashville Predators

Height: 6-1

Weight: 206

Born: Jun 14, 1984

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Ryan Jones	8	0	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	0	7	0.0