SB Nation - Matt Greene

Tracking the toughest players in the NHL: The Black and Blue Trophy

Hooks Orpik — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:54:39 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

Hits like these are why Brooks Orpik is 4th in the black and blue trophy race, despite missing time to injury.

Long-time readers might remember a metric we took a look at last season, the Black and Blue Trophy. It is a simple measure of which players are blocking shots and the opposition. It's tough, yeoman's work. Often times those throwing their body in front of rubber and into others end up on the shelf, an unfortunate reminder that shows the Black and Blue guys have to be durable to make it on this list.

This year's official Black and Blue trophy has a new twist: defensemen are now the only players eligible. In years past we've included forwards, but they don't block enough shots to be considered in the true spirit of what the award is trying to encompass. This isn't about the guys who forecheck hard (like Cal Clutterbuck and Dustin Brown) but someone that embodies the sacrifice of a black and blue player.

In this day and age there are a lot of great stats out there, like Behind the Net which does awesome work and has a vast database of in depth statistics. Here's a great resource that James Mirtle recently wrote to overview these new-age stats and metrics that are popping up more and more to judge how good players are beyond just goals and assists.

Behind the jump, your tough-nosed leaderboard.

A little more sophisticated look at defensive defensemen is Mirtle's list, which uses a secretive formula to rank players based off the quality of competition they play and the goals allowed by their team while they're on the ice. Brent Seabrook, Andy Sutton and Greg Zanon make both Mirtle's "best defensive defensemen" and the black and blue.

From last February's BnB list: Orpik, Greene, Robidas and Seabrook are on there, showing great durability. Most of those guys are towards the top of the lists and both years.

As always, this isn't a list without it's limitations (hits subjective from town to town, etc, etc) but it serves a purpose to recognize guys who may not be putting up goals/assists but are still specialized defenders.

Here's the rest of the list for the Penguins:

Among BnB/games played, Orpik is still the king (other than Guenin's very short sample size). What jumps out to me is Engelland, who did well to ring up a lot of hits in his brief time in the NHL.

Edmonton - Los Angeles post-game: Jon be nimble, Jon be Quick

Bruce McCurdy — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 07:36:09 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

9 days ago: Los Angeles Kings' Matt Greene, right, sweeps the puck out from behind teammate and goalie Jonathan Quick during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton on Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,John Ulan)

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Haven't we seen this movie before? Oilers battle the Kings to a standoff for 55 minutes and then some big palooka who hasn't scored since before The Flood manages to find twine to decide things in regulation? Screw Hollywood and its corny endings anyway.

The good news is that the Oilers outshot, outchanced and even out-Corsied the Kings, and found a way to come from behind for the fifth consecutive game. The bad news was they started and finished poorly, and weren't even able to carry the tie to the 60-minute mark. Arrgghh, losses like that really hurt, especially in a year where Bettman Points are being given away like unwanted pennies on Halloween.

This was one game that you could put a little bit on goaltending. Jonathan Quick was outstanding in the Kings goal and Jeff Deslauriers wasn't able to match him. He didn't get a lot of help on the first two goals, both odd-man rushes after Denis Grebeshkov and Lubo Visnovsky, respectively, got burned at the exact same spot on the ice (the offensive blueline in the first period, the defensive in the second). The killer third goal came after a long possession in which the Oil couldn't touch the puck let alone clear the zone, but JDD got beat on a 60-footer along the ice, which is supposedly his strength. On a play like that the goalie needs to make himself big, and that didn't happen. Beaten by Sean O'Donnell, for Schremp's sake.

Stats of note after the jump:

EV Corsi by line (listed in order of EV TOI):

Penner +8, Gagner +6, Brule +5
Nilsson +10, Stone +9, Horcoff +6
Cogliano +7, Potulny +7, Moreau +5
Stortini -3, O'Sullivan -5, Jacques -6

Smid +7, Visnovsky +6
Souray +5, Gilbert +5
Staios +6, Grebeshkov +5

Pretty consistent outshooting across the top 3 lines and all 3 defence pairs. The "new fourth line" consisting of Stortini anchored by Horcoff's old linemates POS and JFJ had a tough night, especially O'Sullivan who committed a game-high* 3 giveaways, 2 of which were very bad ones in Oilers end. (* Worst among skaters but tied with JDD and Quick of all people) The trio spent the third period stapled to the bench, on demerit judging by those shots totals. They did create some havoc physically, or at least JFJ and Zorg did. I'm frankly wondering what it is Patrick O'Sullivan brings to this team right now.

* * *

Faceoffs (2 or more)

Stortini 5/6 = 83%
Potulny 7/14 = 50%
Horcoff 5/10 = 50%
Gagner 4/8 = 50%
Penner 2/5 = 40%

Oilers 25/46 = 54%

New faceoff ace? :)

* * *

Cogliano: 4 shots, 7 attempted shots
Potulny: 1-1-2, +1
Jacques: 3 hits, 5 PiM
Deslauriers: 23/26, .885, L
Souray: 1-1-2, +1, 4 shots, 7 attempted shots
Brule: 3 shots, 3 hits
Quinn: 1 profanity-laced post game outburst

* * *

Matt Greene: +1, 2 PiM, 6 hits, 2 blocks, 1 goal line save (see picture)

* * *

Next up: vs. Nashville, Thursday, 19:30 MST

Sometimes, the Oilers Aren't Killing Me

Benjamin Massey — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

13 days ago: Edmonton Oilers goalie Jeff Deslauriers makes a save in the third period of an NHL hockey game against the St. Louis Blues, Friday, Dec. 11, 2009, in St. Louis. The Oilers overcame a 3-0 deficit to win 5-3. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Over my time at the Copper & Blue, I've developed a reputation as a bit of a ranting, negative lunatic. There's a very good reason I've acquired this reputation: it's accurate. That's pretty much exactly what I am. When the Oilers lose, I'll tear my face off with grief and when they win I'll settle for pulling my nose hairs out bemoaning how close they were to losing.

It's a stressful sort of fandom I live. One filled with black clouds of grim angst occasionally broken up by rays of bright sunshine which serve only to make the darkness seem all the more oppressive.

But in truth, I am not all despair all the time. Sometimes... just sometimes... the Oilers manage to surprise me in an astonishing little way. And so, for your viewing enjoyment and to give myself a break from a constant stream of negativity, gloom, and angst, I present to you six lovely little surprises for the holiday season that the Edmonton Oilers have provided me so far this year.

1) The goaltending isn't nearly as bad as I'd feared. Early in the season, I gave Nikolai Khabibulin the nickname "Maginot Line" because he was big, expensive, immobile, outdated, and largely useless. Jeff Deslauriers I didn't give a nickname but, then, I didn't have to because he was Jeff Deslauriers so obviously he was going to be terrible. It would have been like kicking a puppy into traffic to pick on him any more.

Well, neither Deslauriers nor Khabibulin have been terrific by any means, but they haven't been bad. Nikolai Khabibulin's contract was terrible but, a few foibles aside, his play wasn't. With a .909 save percentage and an almost tolerable 3.03 goals-against average while playing through the worst of Edmonton's defensive injuries, Khabibulin wasn't shooting the lights out but was pretty much middle of the pack for NHL starters. He's being paid like an All-Star, but I'm trying to look at his play, not his contract.

Of course, then he strained his back reaching too far for the remote or something and now we're putting up with Jeff Deslauriers. Who's... actually been a bit better than Khabibulin. A .916 save percentage, a 2.61 goals-against average, and his first career NHL shutout. The sample size is small, but Deslauriers is fifteenth in the NHL among goaltenders who've played at least ten games in save percentage. He's tied with Henrik Lundqvist, for God's sake. He's ahead of Roberto Luongo! And he's playing for the Edmonton Oilers!

That's not shabby. That's not shabby at all.

2) Ladislav Smid is quietly becoming brilliant. Obviously, playing with Lubomir Visnovsky helps (more on him later). But the book on Ladislav Smid used to be that he's was a crappy version of Tommy Albelin. Then, starting last season, we started to see more of a physical edge in his game. He got into guys' faces, he didn't take no guff, he started to "clear his neighbourhood" as the astronomers say. Then this year, his strides have been palpable. He's still not a Derian Hatcher sort, but he's getting there.

It is an axiom, at least to me, that defensive defensemen take forever to develop. Defending is hard, guys. You can't just work on a big slapshot or some fancy stickhandling moves and still put up results while learning the game. Until you figure out exactly how things work in the show you are going to get run over. For a long time, Smid was getting killed, but more and more he's figuring it out. We saw the same thing with former Oiler Matt Greene, only to trade him just as the light was starting to go on. Every player in that mold goes through the same thing and the trick is figuring out which kids will eventually get it. Smid is starting to get it.

3) Who the hell are our forwards, and why are they doing so okay? Ryan O'Marra, Colin McDonald, Ryan Potulny, Gilbert Brule, Liam Reddox, Ryan Stone oh god I could keep going. No, it's not the second and third lines of the Springfield Falcons, it's a list of guys we've called up, plugged into the starting lineup, and told "surprise! you're NHL players!"

Well, the results could have been a lot worse, couldn't they?

Colin McDonald, that big palooka, scored a goal. Ryan O'Marra, who I ragged on so much he was on the verge of becoming a running joke, looked better in the NHL than he ever has in the AHL. Liam Reddox slumped towards the end but looked so promising at the beginning of his callup I pronounced him the new Fernando Pisani. Gilbert Brule is this team's fourth-leading scorer (seriously), and no matter what Derek says that's pretty damned impressive in any context. He has nine goals and twelve assists for twenty-one points in twenty-nine games. His previous career highs were nine goals and ten assists for nineteen points in seventy-eight games with Columbus in 2006-07.

Ryan Stone, meanwhile, has been getting positive notices for everything but his scoring. He's banged, crashed, made life miserable for opposing players, looked after himself in his own zone, and chipped in five assists in thirteen games. His return from injury immediately made our fourth line into a credible opponent, and that's been vital to the Oilers' recent success.

Not one of these guys were being counted on to be any sort of positive at the beginning of the year, and yet they've all helped the team, some in big ways, others in small ones.

4) There's a lot of try in this team. Much as I hate to resort to crappy colour-man clichés, it's true. Remember the doldrums of the last couple of seasons where the Oilers were just going through the motions? Crappy players playing a crappy game and afterwards Craig MacTavish would say things at the press conference like "I don't know what else I can say to these guys. They need to figure things out for themselves."?

Yeah, that's not happening anymore. We've had a couple tremendous comebacks already this season, and we've had a couple pretty ugly losses where the team kept fighting until the conclusion anyway. Losing is a lot more bearable when you can see the team cares about it.

5) How incredible is Lubomir Visnovsky? Really damned incredible, that's how incredible. He's been healthy, for the most part, which was a pleasant treat in of itself. But it gets better. His seven goals is tied for third on the team, behind only Dustin Penner and Gilbert Brule. His twenty-three points is second, although he's only one up on Ales Hemsky, the human incarnation of how much the hockey gods hate us. He's +12, which on a team this crappy is hard to do. Among Oilers to play at least twenty games, he leads in time on ice per game. His .767 points per game pace is right back at the élite level he showed from 2005 to 2007 in Los Angeles.

He's sixth in the league in defensive scoring and he's delivering surprisingly excellent defensive results. He's sixth in the league in plus/minus among defensemen, which sounds like I'm making it up. There's nothing not to love about Lubomir Visnovsky's season so far. Some say that he needs to shoot more. Maybe, but I'm reluctant to mess with an All-Star season on a non-playoff team.

6) Special teams haven't been useless. Considering the dearth of offensive creativity and the mediocre lot of defensive forwards we've dealt ourselves, you'd expect both the powerplay and the penalty kill to be completely dire. And certainly the penalty kill has been pretty bad, if not awful, with a 78.8% kill rate plunking them 23rd on the table. To tell you the truth, I'd have put us a lot worse than 23rd at the beginning of the year and that was without considering all the injuries we've picked up, so even that ugly number carries a glittering gem of consolation. If you can throw out guys like Steve Staios, Zack Stortini, and Jason Strudwick on an NHL penalty kill and come up 23rd, things aren't so bad.

The powerplay, on the other hand! Just as devoid of personnel, just as wracked by injury, so ill-conceived that people were trying to talk themselves into Mike Comrie as a legitimate powerplay specialist, and yet they're hitting at a 19.5% rate! That's fourteenth in the league! That's average! I am delighted with average. Whenever any aspect of the Oilers is average, considering what a below-average team they are, that's something. Particularly when the powerplay has been such a history struggle for the Oilers over the last several seasons. It's nice to see results improving even when the team is not.

Week in Review

RudyKelly — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:39:51 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

It's good to see Diamond Dallas Paige is still up and about. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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Tuesday: The Kings call up Andrei Loktionov (yea!) and Brandon Segal (who?*) for their Western Canada road trip. Great expectations are had by all.

*Segal actually had a great week: he didn't score or anything, but he had a few good opportunities and threw his weight around nicely. I think he's locked up a spot for the foreseeable future.

Wednesday: Andrei Loktionov (no!) separates his shoulder and will miss 4 months. The Kings win in a lackluster effort for both them and the Oilers, 3-1. Goals are by Wayne Meat Train Simmonds (yea!), Matt Greene (wha?), and my main man Alexander Frolov.

Thursday: The Kings get handled by the Vancouver Canucks, 4-1. They have a few great opportunities but Roberto Luongo was excellent in net and holds the Kings to one lone goal, scored by Meat Train Simmonds (yea!!).

Friday: I go to the Ducks-Blackhawks game with Earl, his brother and a buddy of his. It was terrible: not only did the Ducks win, not only did Corey Perry extend his scoring streak, not only did the Blackhawks not score, but Kyle Calder (boo!) played well. Kyle Calder. Damn Earl for saying I was going, I think it was motivation. Also, it was funny that I went to the game with a bunch of Ducks fans and had to explain why they some times call off icing.

Saturday: The Kings play the Blackhawks and are fairly mediocre. They win the game on the back of Jonathan Quick, who followed up a solid week with a spectacular game against the Hawks. Quick stopped 22 of 23 against the Oilers, 30 of 33 against the Canucks, and 32 of 33 against the Blackhawks (he was also 2-for-2 in the shootout). Quick obviously read my criticism of his play and responded accordingly.

The Kings' lone goal in regulation was scored on a pretty play by Wayne Meat Train (yea!!!), who overall had 3 goals and an assist on the week. Simmonds, Dustin Brown (yea!) and Jack Johnson (eh) were the 3 stars for the week, while the traditional stars (Kopitar, Doughty, Williams) all took the week off. The Kings managed to gut through 3 pretty tough games to pick up 2 wins, but they can't score 5 goals in 3 games and expect to win 2 of them every week.

Overall, the Kings did what they needed to do: they played tough, defensive hockey and counterpunched when they needed to. This felt like a middle of the season episode, like that episode of Mad Men where they focused on Pete Campbell when he raped the au pair across the hall. Those episodes are great and are sometimes the best ones of the season, but the Kings need their stars to continue the season-long arc and get to the playoffs.

Edmonton - Los Angeles post-mortem: frustration

Bruce McCurdy — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 06:43:24 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

Shawn Horcoff and the Oilers couldn't find any room against the Kings on Wednesday, suffering a 3-1 regulation loss on home ice and losing star forward Ales Hemsky in the process. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

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It's a hopeless feeling when it's still bloody November and you're already resigned to your team being out of contention. But that's exactly how I feel right now. Frustrated.

Another night, another winnable game lost in regulation, another key player sidelined with injury. For at least the third time this year we saw an Oiler leave a game after being sent head first into the boards on a hit from behind. This time it was none other than Ales Hemsky, not only a key to Edmonton's offence but a key to making Oiler games fit to watch. This one certainly wasn't after Ales was helped off, a victim of Michal Handzus's cheap and dangerous crosscheck that catapulted him into the end boards. For which, predictably, Handzus was given a 2-minute slap on the wrist, returning to play a key role on the game-winning goal. Meanwhile, in Washington Alex Ovechkin was given 5 minutes for a much less dangerous hit on agitator Patrick Kaleta, who never missed a shift. But if it's an Oiler who is showing his numbers, it's open season out there. Frustrating.

It also hurt to see Matt Greene cap a splendid game by scoring the winning goal in the dying minutes. Greene became the third recent ex-Oiler to score a game-winner in Rexall in this calendar year, joining Raffi Torres and Marty Reasoner who also scored late tie-breaking goals to send the faithful grumbling into the night. If those bums had scored while they were here they might never have been traded in the first place. Greene was all over the scoresheet with 6 attempted shots, 4 hits, 5 blocked shots, +2, and of course that game winning goal. He was a much greater force in this game than Lubomir Visnovsky, the guy Oilers traded Greene AND Jarret Stoll to obtain. Frustrating.

Worse was that the winner came in regulation time in a game both teams seemed to be nursing to OT. But in a few seconds what was left of the first line lost their composure and their shape in Oilers' end, with all 5 guys being sucked over to Wayne Simmonds' side of the ice opening the door for Greene to walk in and blast the best shot of his Rexall Place career. So the Oilers came away with nothing, dropping a point to conference rivals Minnesota, Colorado, and St.Louis, all of whom were rewarded for managing to "lose" their games in extra time. Frustrating.

Oilers were once again dominated on the shot clock, allowing double digits in each period while never managing more than 8 shots themselves for a final margin of 35-23. It was another tough night for Liam Reddox, outshot 7-0 in his 7:18 at even strength with another atrocious Corsi of -10. In the last 3 games Reddox has been on the ice for just 7 attempted shots by the Oilers and a staggering 46 by the bad guys. After his recall Reddox showed just enough to make me care about him, but has not resembled an NHL player of late. Frustrating.

Jeff Deslauriers played moderately well, making many fine stops among his 33 saves but undoing his work by absolutely seiving in a long slider from Simmonds which tied the score in the second, then getting beat clean by Matt Greene of all people with the game on the line. Frustrating.

So now Oilers are 4/5 of the way through the home stand with an uninspiring 2-2-0 record, a tilt against the powerful Sharks looming. It's been five long weeks, 16 games and counting since the last time the squad won 2 in a row. Did I mention I'm getting frustrated?

King Anze and Los Angeles take down Pittsburgh 5-2

Hooks Orpik — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 06:47:01 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

about 1 month ago: Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar (11), of Slovenia, and Los Angeles Kings goalie Jonathan Quick (32) keep Pittsburgh Penguins right wing Bill Guerin (13) from scoring during the first period of an NHL hockey game, Thursday, Nov. 5, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gus Ruelas)

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Penguins vs Kings coverage - Penguins vs Kings boxscore

Coming into the game, the Los Angeles Kings were a buzzsaw. 5-0-2 in their last seven; and after tonight they've scored 5+ goals in five of the last seven games. They showed why, with superior zone time, cycling, shots on goal. Usually all the aspects the Penguins outmatch others, that's what LA did to them tonight, and they pulled away late in the third period to get a deserving result, a 5-2 victory.

Right off the bat in the first period, the Kings collected a puck in their zone and rushed it up the ice, Justin Williams crissed, Anze Kopitar crossed and Kris Letang was somewhere in the middle. That's not a good equation. Kopitar showed the skill that's why he's currently the league's leading scorer when he stepped up, smoothly went to the backhand and beat Marc-Andre Fleury cleanly for a goal.

The next shift the Penguins put Jordan Staal out with Chris Conner and Matt Cooke. On a breakout Jay McKee (of all people) ended up driving towards the net. Conner dropped the puck to Staal who slapped it to the net. It found paydirt 1-1.

The very fact a defensive defenseman like McKee finds himself in the position to be a little ahead of the play and ends up driving to the net just shows how much the entire team has bought into the system that Dan Bylsma wants them to play. When Jay McKee is your lead force center driving the net and a guy like Jordan Staal knows to pull up, everyone's clicking, everyone's on the same page. In a nutshell that's why Pittsburgh's had so much success since Bylsma took over.

In the second period Brooks Orpik took a shot that Chris Kunitz and Sidney Crosby waived their sticks at. Kunitz got a piece and it was enough to beat Jonathan Quick. IT was 2-1 Pens after two, despite being out-shot and generally out-played they took a lead into the second intermission. It wouldn't last though.

In the third Kopitar would tie it. He beat Crosby on a faceoff and found Williams for a shot. The shot found Kopitar behind the net (as the puck always seems to find the good ones) and he popped out for the easy stuff in to tie the game at 2.

Following a real sloppy power-play by the Pens (what else is new recently), Dustin Brown made a great pass to Jarret Stoll and he buried it. 3-2 Kings. The very next shift the Kings kept the pressure up, Craig Adams was no match for Alexander Frolov and he fired a pass out that bounced around and Michal Handzus got the goal, with Wayne Simmonds right there to get it too. 4-2 Kings just like that.

And in the "piling it on" folder, the Kings got zone time, they cycled well and drew a penalty. With the extra man they got some great passes, caught the Pens running around and Stoll made a great pass to Dustin Brown for an easy slam dunker. 5-2 Kings.

The goalies really settled down after two goalies in the first 1:10 of gameplay, for a while at least. Fleury stopped the next 24 shots, and the only way the Pens beat Quick was a deflection out front. MAF got victimized in a flurry in the 3rd, but let's absolve him because the Kings applied a lot of pressure and outworked a lot of Pittsburgh players to get their goals.
It's not even that Kopitar scored his two goals: the way he did it was almost effortless and very skillful. If he played in the eastern time zone he'd be one of the most hyped players in the game. He's definitely one of those guys like a Rick Nash or Ilya Kovalchuk that is worth watching any chance you get. A supremely talented player and Kopitar put on one of the best performances tonight that I've seen all season.
It should be noted that Kris Letang played 24:49, and though Kopitar made him look foolish twice, he escaped with an even plus/minus rating. Fellow youngster Alex Goligoski logged 21:32 of ice-time and was a +1.
Not to say the usually solid four more defensive defenseman (Jay McKee, Brooks Orpik, Martin Skoula and Mark Eaton) deserve all the blame; but that foursome combined to have a plus/minus rating of -7 (all were negatives except McKee). Pittsburgh's not going to win many games under those circumstances, especially with the power-play not clicking.
Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin combined for 10 of the Pens total of 23 shots on goal. Guerin got a couple wonderful feeds but couldn't convert (including one that hit Quick's pad and then the post). Can't knock those two for a lack of effort, but the results generally just haven't paid dividends.
Matt Cooke, Pascal Dupuis and Ruslan Fedotenko -- three veteran wingers all relied on for contributions didn't fare as well. That trio combined for almost 47 minutes of ice-time but only got one shot on goal (Fedotenko's) and weren't dangerous. They were flat out overmatched by their counter-parts in guys like Stoll, Brown and Frolov.
Tough night for Craig Adams too. While he registered a game high 8 hits (including one on Matt Greene that dislodged the glass), Adams was a -3 and lost 9 of 12 faceoffs.
As far as diminutive forwards with the first name of Chris go: Conner > Bourque. Maybe it's because Conner's two years older, maybe it's because he's got 54 more NHL games, but whatever the reason, Conner seems more poised, a better skater and makes better decisions with the puck.

Overall, no excuses, the Kings worked very hard, played a superior game, got some solid goaltending and deserved the win. They displayed all the usual tenets of Pittsburgh Penguins hockey, but did so with better skill and execution from top to bottom. One can't help but wonder what the outcome would have been if Pittsburgh was fortunate enough to have their four key injured players (Malkin, Gonchar, Kennedy, Talbot) but let that take nothing away from the display LA put on. Sure would be nice to see a seven game series between these two teams, but that is a long ways away.

Pittsburgh's franchise best of seven straight road wins to open a season is now history, but they still have a big chance to have a winning west coast road trip if they get the result in San Jose on Saturday. The Sharks are no easy task, so time to put this one behind us and move north in California to see what can happen.

Carkner's new deal: A savvy signing at a good time

PeterR — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 11:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Sean Kilpatrick - AP

Matt Carkner was given a two-year contract extension just weeks into his first NHL season. But what's the hurry?

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Before this season, Matt Carkner looked like a career AHLer with little upside. Although he had the necessary toughness, in terms of both fighting and hitting, to log NHL minutes, he didn't have the skating abilities or hockey smarts to keep up with the best players in the league. He was drafted ten years ago, had two NHL games in his career, and looked like his window into the NHL was pretty much closed.

A summer of training his skating, though, and a friendly coach in Cory Clouston helped Carkner to a strong training camp in which he surpassed a few blue-chip prospects in Brian Lee and Alex Picard, and early in his first NHL season he looks like one of the Ottawa Senators' top four defencemen.

If you told me I'd be saying that before training camp started, I wouldn't believe you. But that's what's happened. And it's why Carkner was given his two-year, one-way contract worth $1.4M on Tuesday. Is it still early in the year? Definitely. And does giving Carkner a one-way deal make the team less flexible? Absolutely. But, in my opinion, it's still a smart signing that comes at just the right time for the Senators organization.

(Read more... )

Leading the way of those who've questioned the Carkner signing, at least for the time being, is Another Ottawa Senators Blog. Duff makes a good argument, but I'm going to respectfully disagree, and here's why:

The time

We're barely two weeks and only seven games into Carkner's first NHL season, so the biggest question is: What was the hurry in signing Carkner? The contract demonstrates a pretty significant commitment to a player who's far from proven in this league, a we're working on a pretty small sample size to build his case. But let's not forget that this isn't the first exposure the organization has with Carkner; in 134 games over two season with the Binghamton Senators (where Carkner perhaps surprisingly scored 13G and 33A) Senators coach Clouston and GM Bryan Murray both got a good look at the team-first honest approach Carkner brings every night. That's not the kind of thing that will change when a player signs a contract like Carkner was given.

And although he might perhaps have signed this same contract in three months time, his value could very well have gone up by that point, too. Is it likely that a player with a half-season of NHL experience would command a huge salary on the open market? No, but it's entirely likely that he could command more than $700k per season. He's no game breaker, but some Carkner-style players have signed pretty big contracts in recent years: Dennis Seidenberg makes $2.25M, Mike Commodore makes $3.75M, Matt Greene makes $2.95M. These guys have more NHL experience than Carkner, but they make a heck of a lot more than he does, too.

Even if his value doesn't significantly rise as the season goes on, this contract out of the way allows Murray to focus on the more pressing issue: Finding a way to re-sign Anton Volchenkov. There's no way Carkner could replace Volchenkov, but having him locked up does offer some flexibility to negotiate with Volchenkov.

The term

Two years can seem like an eternity with a bad contract, but passes in no time when it's a good contract. It offers Carkner the ability yo manage his affairs, but it's a good term for the team, too. If it works out, he's locked up for that long. If it's not, it's a contract that can be buried or bought out with reasonable expense. Is it nice for owner Eugene Melnyk to have the prospect of paying a guy not to play (again)? No, but it's a cost of doing business in the new NHL.

The salary

It's, really, a no-lose salary at $700k. Again, it's cheap to buy out, if need be, but is a reasonable paycheque for Carkner. It's hardly any higher than league minimum, but the big deal is the fact that it's guaranteed.

The structure

Here's something big: Would Carkner really have refused a two-way contract, considering his bargaining position? Probably. On the verge of a breakout NHL season, any player with an agent in the right mind wouldn't accept a two-way deal when there's the possibility of a one-way deal coming his way soon. If the Senators weren't going to offer him a once-way, he could have signed one with any number of other teams. He's valuable because he's a veteran player, but for all intents and purposes is tantamount to coming off his entry-level contract.

The congestion

This is a big thing. With Filip Kuba, Chris Phillips, and Erik Karlsson already under contract for next year, Volchenkov's status as an (irreplaceable) UFA, youngsters Chris Campoli, Alex Picard, and Brian Lee all entering the off-season as RFAs, and Patrick Wiercioch and Jared Cowen inevitably looking to make a splash in training camp next year, there's a lot of congestion on the blue line. So where does Carkner fit on there? The short answer, at this point, is that it's unclear.

But Carkner offers something that the other defencemen listed don't: The flexibility to line up as a winger, if need be. Should Picard, Campoli, or Lee impress to the point of earning contract extensions, or one of the prospects beat out Carkner for his spot, he can line up on the Senators' fourth line and play as a swing man. Remember when defencemen went out, or a shutdown defender was sent to the sin bin, and Christoph Schubert stepped back to defence in a pinch? Carkner can do the same thing. The contracts of both Shean Donovan and Jesse Winchester will be up at the end of the season, and there are no guarantees either will get an extension.

The biggest thing

Carkner's the flag-bearer for the honest, blue-collar, lunchpail style Murray and Clouston are trying to promote, and this contract is a recognition thereof. Although the one-way nature of the contract seems like it makes the team less flexible, his role as a swingman offers some adaptability for the team.

All in all, I like the deal. There's room for it to go wrong, for sure, but it was a calculated risk that was certainly worth taking.

Texas Stars...Err...Dallas Stars Lose 4-1 to Kings

Brandon Bibb — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:11:55 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Kings defenseman Matt Greene (2) center Anze Kopitar (11) of Slovenia and defenseman Davis Drewiske (44) congratulate each other following right wing Justin Williams, center front, second period goal during an NHL hockey game against the Dallas Stars, Monday, Oct. 19, 2009, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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And in an unconfirmed ~~fake~~ rumor, Jeff Woywitka and Matt Niskanen could be headed to Siberia. The furthest one, that is. We hear some Stars fans might rejoice at that news.

In all seriousness, I was about to give credit to this bunch for seemingly getting a handle on their 2nd period bugaboos that had infected their game early last season, where the Stars had surrendered 11 goals and scored only 7 for a goal differential of -4 through seven games. This season, they had been even up at 9-9 through seven.

And then they threw out that forgettable second period tonight after Brenden Morrow and Jamie Benn combined for an absolutely beautiful goal to give them a 1-0 lead going into the first intermission.

No doubt this game turned on Stephane Robidas' attempted clear of a puck on edge with the Stars already down a man thanks to Nik Grossman's tripping penalty. Instead of flinging the puck down the ice, Robi knuckled the puck into the stands and Los Angeles got to enjoy a 5-on-3 advantage that lasted 1:37.

Dallas was able to kill off the two man portion of the LA penalty. Then they killed off the next 16 seconds of the 5-on-4 after Grossman came back on. But another little mistake on the penalty kill proved costly as Jeff Woywitka, after battling along the boards with Ryan Smyth, went back in front of the net after Smyth had passed the puck to the half boards over to Dustin Brown.

For a split second, Woywitka seemed to lose track of Smyth, Brown saw this and threw the puck in on goal and the long time Stars nemesis redirected the puck under Marty Turco's glove to tie the game.

From that point on, it was all Kings in the middle frame. Eight minutes later, the Smyth-Williams-Kopitar line put the Kings on top for good as Matt Greene spotted Justin Williams to Turco's left, and fired a low shot that Williams redirected past Turco's left pad at the 13:26 mark.

About a minute and a half later, the Kings entered the Stars zone at the 15:05 mark of the period and controlled play there for the next 54 seconds by doing their best Detroit Red Wings impersonation. Anze Kopitar capped it off by taking advantage of a gassed third line and buried a chance that was setup from behind the net by Williams.

And all of a sudden, that respectable even goal differential in the middle frame through seven games turns into a -3 after eight. It also meant almost certain defeat when you consider Mike Modano, Brad Richards, Jere Lehtinen, and Steve Ott missed this contest with various injuries and that this was Dallas' third game in four nights.

Getting back to the Kings for a second, we all know they've been somewhat of an enigma anytime they play the Stars post-lockout. The Stars went 2-6 against the Kings in the 2005-06 season, then proceeded to sweep the season series the next year. And we all know about how a game between Dallas and LA is never over at the Staples Center until the final horn blows.

Despite all the success the Kings have had against Dallas since the lockout (and they've gone 8-8-6 against the Stars in 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2008-09), they haven't made the playoffs since the 2001-02 season. I have a feeling they'll seriously contend for a playoff spot this year. As bad as they've been this decade, that also means they've been the beneficiaries of some high draft picks like Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty, and even Jack Johnson

Sooner or later, that's got to pay off for them. And to that end, I think they supplemented that young talent very well by acquiring Justin Williams from the Carolina Hurricanes last year and Ryan Smyth this year. Andy Murray instituted a strong defensive game in this unit and those aforementioned trades should make them a stronger offensive team.

As for the Stars, I think with their second loss in three games, we can officially say they've hit their first rough patch of the season. Jamie Benn's first period goal is the only goal they've scored in their last two home games and their power play is 0 for their last 14. And the injuries are starting to mount up a little bit.

The good news as they embark on a three game West coast road trip is they'll start it at a place they've been very good at in recent years. Not to mention, the Ducks have had problems finding their footing this year after taking the Red Wings to the limit in the second round last year. Jonas Hiller hasn't been near the wunderkind he was during Anaheim's playoff run last year and the Ducks are smarting from a 5-0 shutout at home at the hands of the Blues Saturday night.

Frequently Asked Question #2: Quality of Competition statistics at Behind the Net

Hawerchuk — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 17:55:42 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

2 months ago: New York Islanders' Matt Moulson goes down as he is checked by New Jersey Devils' Rob Niedermayer, left, as Zach Parise, right, looks on during the second period of a preseason NHL hockey game Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Newark, N.J. Niedermayer received a two-minute penalty for high sticking. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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I hope you enjoyed part 1 of the Frequently Asked Questions at Behind the Net. I'd like to discuss the second-most common question I get about the site: what exactly is Quality of Competition, or QualComp?

The basic idea is this: we want to characterize the characteristics of the opponents that a particular player lines up against.

There are numerous ways we could go about this. We could average out the points-per-game of opposing players(as Jonathan Willis has suggested, and which works reasonably well, particularly when you have no ice time information), but I think the best place to start is with what I called "Relative +/-" or "Rating" in part 1. Relative +/- adjusts a player's on-ice +/- relative to his team's +/- while he was off the ice. In general, it corrects for the boost players get from playing on a good offensive team and vice-versa.

If we average that rating across all of a player's opponents, weighting for how much time they played against one another, then we have an estimate of how good a player's opponents were relative to their teams. In a general sense, first line players have the best ratings, so players who play against the first line should see the highest opponent rating. That average opponent rating is the "Quality of Competition" faced by a given player.

Here's a worked example from 2006-07:

If you lined up against Anaheim's top line, you'd get:

Name	Pos	Team	#	Rating/On/Off +/-
KUNITZ	F	ANA	14	+1.97
SELANNE	F	ANA	8	+1.65
PRONGER	D	ANA	25	+1.61
MCDONALD	F	ANA	19	+0.94
NIEDERMAYER	D	ANA	27	-0.31

The Quality of Competition would be the average of 1.97, 1.65, 1.61, 0.94 and -0.31, which is 5.86/5 = +1.17.

So now that we have the preliminaries out of the way, what does Quality of Competition tell us? Take a look at the 2007-08 list: Quality of Competition for 2007-08. Niedermayer, Pahlsson and Moen are 1/2/3, reflecting their usage as the increasingly rare "checking line" in Anaheim. Jay Pandolfo is 4th among forward, Mikko Koivu 5th, and John Madden 6th. In 2006-07, Madden and Pandolfo were #1 and #2. Nick Lidstrom's always in the top 10 too. Basically, Quality of Competition tells us if players were used overwhelmingly against top competition, and it gives us another data point we can use to adjust a player's very high (or very low) +/-.

One of my favorite uses for it is to look at a team I don't know a whole lot about, and see what it says about defensive pairings and usage. For example, the 2008-09 LA Kings:

	GP	5v5 TOI
Doughty	81	16:14
Greene	82	15:55
Johnson	41	15:46
O'Donnell	82	15:41
Quincey	72	15:20

Five guys, all within one minute of each other in terms of 5v5 ice time. On many teams, it's obvious who the #1 and #2 D are because they log much more ice time than other players - both against other teams' good players and against not-so-good ones. But if we add Quality of Competition to the mix:

	GP	5v5 TOI	QualComp
Doughty	81	16:14	0.037
Greene	82	15:55	-0.003
Johnson	41	15:46	0.016
O'Donnell	82	15:41	0.049
Quincey	72	15:20	-0.025

Now it makes more sense. The #1 pairing was Doughty-O'Donnell, though if Johnson hadn't been injured, he might have had more time on the first unit. Matt Greene is clearly the #4 D, and Kyle Quincey is #5. And this is generally consistent with how they were used last season. On most teams, this method works out very well, though it's reflective of how the coach sees the player, and not necessarily of what the player's abilities are.

Kings-Sharks: Exhale

RudyKelly — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 05:42:12 -0000

More photos » by Danny Moloshok - AP

2 months ago: Los Angeles Kings' Davis Drewiske, left, high fives Justin Williams after the Kings defeated the San Jose Sharks 6-4 in their NHL hockey game in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2009. Drewiske scored his first NHL career goal in the game. (AP Photo/Danny Moloshok)

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Thoughts from tonight's ridiculous exercise:

-It's funny how a win like this can be viewed by different people. If you're a Kings fan, are you happy that your team won, no matter what? Are you upset the Kings almost blew a 4-0 lead? If you're a Sharks fan, are you upset the Sharks were so terrible 5-on-5? Or happy the power play looked so good? If you're me, you just kinda wanna go to bed.

-Jonathan Quick has a 5.00 GAA and a 83SV%. Jonathan Quick hasn't played that bad. It's been a weird season so far.

-The Kings forward lines looked really good tonight, as they greatly reduced the 4th line's ice time and pretty much rolled 3 lines all night. Fro-Hand-Meat got the main assignment against the Joe Thornton line, with Kopitar's line getting the assignment when the Sharks tried to double-shift Thornton. The result? Kings 3, Sharks 0 when those lines were on the ice.

-Kopitar made a great play at the end of the game where he beat out Marc-Edouard Vlasic on an icing call and put helped put the game on ice. He has looked great and is doing a great job around the front of the net. I don't want to get excited, but Anze Kopitar is the greatest player in the world.

-Of course, Thornton still ended up with 3 assists tonight because the Sharks destroyed the Kings while on the power play. The Kings finished 7th last season in penalty killing last season but have thus far been pretty terrible when down a man. They didn't have a problem with their penalty kill during the preseason so it could just be a small sample size issue (and San Jose's power play unit is truly exceptional) but it's something the Kings need to work on.

-The Kings need Sean O'Donnell back. He's a pretty important cog in the Kings defense, as he allows Matt Greene to play a smaller role and more importantly pushes Peter Harrold* and Alec Martinez out of the line-up. I can't wait to see the old goat back.

*Peter Harrold didn't play bad tonight.

-Raitis Ivanans: HOLY SHIT. That was the scariest thing I've ever seen in my entire life and I once saw Earl's balls. He beat the shit out of Jody Shelley and I don't think anyone was expecting that. I've never seen Ivanans fight like that. It was like... it was like... fuck, I don't even know. It was like awesome. Jesus Raitis, play like that all the time.

-I'm not going to say that this game was a big character builder or a game we'll point to as a turning point for this team. The Kings should have won that game without difficulty and they don't get brownie points for almost blowing a game. Still, that was a game they had to win. More importantly, it was a game they really wanted to win. It was the kind of win that has been missing in LA for a while. Luck? New purpose? I don't know, but it was a helluva thing to watch.

-God, I'm so tired and I didn't even do anything.