SB Nation - Brett Palin

Minor happenings: Moose 5 Heat 4 (SO)

Robert Cleave — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:51:38 -0000

I had an opportunity, for what will very likely be the only time this year, to watch the Flames' minor-leaguers in action last night at the MTS Centre. Here are a few notes from an odd affair:

Roster-wise Matt Keetley started in net, and through two periods, the regular D pairs were Pelech-Negrin, Seabrook-Baldwin, and Cole-Aulie. Playfair had the blender out for the forwards. I'm not sure why no Brett Palin, and Carsen Germyn was also scratched. Injured, possibly?

As for the game, if anyone wanted to know why Matt Keetley has had trouble getting over the hump, last night's game had many of the answers in microcosm. He made quite a few good saves, but mixed that work with shaky rebound control, some positioning issues, and had a couple of pucks go right through him. His good play was the reason the game was tied at 1 after two periods, and the iffy stuff was a big part of the reason the Heat found themselves down 4-1 with just under 9 minutes to go. The Heat put Leland Irving in for the OT and shoot-out. It looked like a tactical move by Playfair rather than an injury to Keetley forcing things.

Matt Pelech had a very difficult game, -2 with some poor reads, and a reckless foray up ice lead to a lengthy (read:cricket match-lengthy) three on one that was finished by a very patient Sergei Shirokov's deke and goal. That appeared to end Pelech's night, because I don't remember seeing him in the last 11:54 of regulation or OT. I don't think he was hurt, either, if you follow. Keith Aulie joined him as a spectator in the second half of the third, so if two of your touted prospects are watching Gord Baldwin and Brad Cole, you pretty much know what kind of night it was through the first 50-ish minutes.

The Heat defence in general had some issues with the Moose forecheck on the way to giving up 43 shots in actual play, and Keith Seabrook made a D to D power play pass so terrible to set up the 4-1 goal for the Moose that it should read this way:

TERRIBLE!!!!!!!

Keetley didn't aid matters by letting the ensuing Mario Bliznak shot slide through the 5 hole, but it's one he shouldn't have faced. Seabrook wasn't out of place otherwise, settling down in the last 9 minutes, along with the other 3 defencemen that Playfair used, as the Heat mounted a PP fueled comeback.

The forwards were lead by the Lundmark-Jaffray pairing. Jamie Lundmark truly is, in baseball terms, a AAAA player. He's never quite good enough to stick long-term in the Show, but too good for the minors. Jaffray fits this description as well, and the two were the main threats at EV and with an extra man. The two each scored a goal on the PP, and Lundmark tied the game with Keetley pulled, using a change-up shot Greg Maddux would have been proud to call his own. Or he whiffed on it and hit the underside of the bar and in, take your pick ;-) Colin Stuart scored the other goal on a nice PP tip of a Riley Armstrong shot.

The young guys up front were a bit mixed. Mikael Backlund skated with Grantham and Cunning to start, worked with Stuart and Sutter during the second, and then proceeded to watch the last 6 minutes of that period from the center of the bench. He didn't play much in the third either, until it was 4-1 Moose, when he likely played half of the last 9 minutes with Jaffray and Lundmark as the Heat were chasing the game. He certainly doesn't look like the best player on the team, and I noticed Playfair putting him out on O-zone draws when he could. You can see the skill and imagination, but he wasn't quite able to finish plays, and I think strength on the puck is something he'll continue to need to work on. Armstrong and Sutter were pretty nondescript, frankly. Sutter did have a good chance gifted to him when Cory Schneider left a puck beind the net, but he was unable to convert the wrap-around.

As I noted up top, strange game. Manitoba was pretty clearly better until they went down two men late in the third, then gave up two goals in short order to get the Heat right back in it. The OT was all Heat, with Garth Murray having a breakaway chance to finish things, stymied only by a good glove save from Schneider. Desbiens finished a lack-luster shoot-out with a nice deke to send most of the alleged 5,516 in attendance home in a good mood. Alleged, because if there were more than 4,000 actually in the building, I'd be shocked.

Summing up, the players that might be considered young prospects (Keetley, Pelech and the 3 rookie D, Backlund, Armstrong, Sutter) were generally kind of meh, with Pelech a step below that. In the interests of fairness, Abbotsford started the season a week later than other teams, so they still have some ground to make up.

Oh, and if anyone cares, Jimmy Canaryshirt didn't live down to the nickname, sporting a light blue-almost hinting to-mauve number last night. Inquiring minds, and all that.

Musings of Interest: Adam Pardy

Kent Wilson — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 18:11:01 -0000

A 6th rounder in the 2004 entry draft, Pardy has very slowly, very steadily moved his way up the organizations depth chart over the last 5 years. A long shot from day one, Pardy was a rookie for the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL) at the age of 19. He played just 7 games that year, scoring a single point. He was a regular as a 20 year old the next season, appearing in 68 games, managing 16 points. The Flames scouts saw something that year despite his age and mediocre numbers and drafted him the following summer.

Pardy's results took a jump during his overage season. He scored 12 goals and 39 points, a team high amongst defensemen. Of course, he was also a 21 year old playing against teenagers, so that's not terribly surprising nor revealing. Pardy's long, unlikely road to the big leagues actually began in the ECHL in 2005, where he played a majority of the season with the Flames Affiliate in Las Vegas. He garnered just 12 points in 41 games with the Wranglers, but was also called up for spot duty with the Omaha Knights (24 games, 0 points).

Adam made the AHL club for good in 06/07. It was the same season Dustin Boyd and Andrei Taratukhin led the team in scoring and David Moss made the leap to the NHL. Once again, none of Pardy's results were notable. He lagged behind guys like Brad Ference and Brett Palin in terms of offensive production and was a middle-defender on the club.

The big step forward came the next year, where Pardy almost made the Flames out of training camp. His relative poise and size made him one of the final cuts from camp that season, setting the stage for his "break-out" performance: in the AHL, Pardy was a top pairing defender for the Quad City. His ice time and output jumped and he was elected to the AHL all-star game as a result. He would go on to make the big club for good the next year.

Pardy obviously doesn't have a very high ceiling. At 25 years old, we're probably closer to his peak than his floor. That said, I liked what I saw out of Adam last year - he's big, relatively mobile and doesn't panic with the puck (aside from one or two rookies errors which I assume will disappear with experience). I doubt he'll ever become a top 4 defender, but he could become one of those valuable bottom pairing guys who is cheap, but relatively reliable.

Given the glut of talented hopefuls bubbling under the suface in the Flames organization and his limited ceiling, Pardy's spot on the roster may be in jeopardy in the near future. Pelech, Kronwall and Stralman will be fighting for his job this season, while Negrin, Aulie and eventually Erixon are a year or two away. In fact, I can picture Pardy sticking around till the end of his current deal (700k till 2011) and then bolting for greener (read: less crowded) pastures.

Flames Prospect Depth - Blueline Strength

Kent Wilson — Sat, 25 Jul 2009 20:04:53 -0000

More photos » by Jeff McIntosh - AP

Does Pelech look like a bigger, angrier Jude Law to anyone else here?

Browse more photos »

Building off a Robert Cleave comment from the previous post, I noticed that the Calgary organization has a nice collection of futures at the back-end. While the forward ranks are still relatively thin, the Flames are positioned to be almost totally self-sustaining when it comes to staffing the blueline for years to come.

Here's how the depth chart looks by age:

[NHL]

Cory Sarich - 30

Robyn Regehr - 29

Staffan Kronwall - 26

Jay Bouwmeester - 25

Mark Giordano - 25

Adam Pardy - 25

Dion Phaneuf - 24

[AHL]

Brett Palin - 25

Matt Pelech - 22

Gord Baldwin - 22

John Negrin - 20

Keith Aulie - 20

Keith Seabrook - 20

[Junior]

TJ Brodie - 19

Tim Erixon - 18

At the NHL level, the club has no less than 4 guys who are on the brink of their prime years, which I consider approximately to be ages 24-29: Giordano, Bouwmeester, Pardy and Phaneuf (I exclude Kronwall here because I consider him little more than a single season stop-gap measure). Sarich and Regehr are the "grizzled" vets and both are likely a few steps away from the downslope.

At the minor and junior level, I count as many as 5 high-potential kids in Pelech, Aulie, Negrin, Brodie and Erixon, with guys like Seabrook and Palin as outside shots to eventually make the show at some point as depth players. Even if a couple of these guys fall away as they age, the Flames will still be relatively flush.

The fact that there is a gentle age slope from top-to-bottom is probably as important as the quality and quantity of the guys mentioned, though. As a result, the club can afford to allow the kids to grow into their roles slowly and organically; by the time a guy like Pelech is ready to make the leap for good, he'll be well supported by a collection of quality veterans playing at their peak or near peak. And by the time Pelech has grown into his big boy pants, the same can be said of Negrin and Aulie. And so on. It's as close to optimal as one could get - if you ignore the amount Calgary is spending on their defense corps currently, of course.

The only potential future issues I can see is crowding. The good news is: capable defenders can almost always be moved for a return on the trade market. My gut feeling looking at the list is: Sarich will stick around this season, but be dealt for parts next summer.

Flames top 10 prospects

Kent Wilson — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:27:17 -0000

Now that it's June, thoughts will start turning to futures and the upcoming draft. The network has some plans in the works for June 26th, including a mock draft and draft hub (similar to the trade deadline hub from March 4) but those are a few weeks away. For now, let's take stock of what the club has in the pipeline currently. So, without further ado, I present my Top 10 Flames prospects:

1.) Mikael Backlund

First because he's probably the only future asset with a "blue chip" potential in the Flames hopper currently. Rated as one of the best European skaters in his draft, Backlund fell to the Flames at 24 because of a leg injury that limited him to only a few games during his draft season. His development seemingly stalled in Vasteras this year where a minor feud between himself and his handlers resulted in Backlund bolting for the WHL's Kelowna Rockets. The 6' center scored at a better than PPG pace after emigrating and was declared the "most exciting player in the league" by some during the WHL play-offs, where the Rockets went on to upset the favorite Calgary Hitmen on their way to the memorial cup championships. Backlund has also excelled at the WJC in the past, frequently finishing amongst the top scorers on very strong Swedish clubs.

From what I've seen, Backlund has soft hands and excellent vision, especially in the offensive zone and during the power play. Accoding to reports, he is able to release his hard and accurate shot in full flight as well. That said, he visibly suggled during his most recent training camp, ever though the organization gave him all sorts of time and circumstances to succeed. He played a single game in the NHL this year just before joining the Rockets and looked capable in the offensive zone, but was frequently overwhelmed in his own end of the rink. There's a chance he could impress and make the show this September, although Calgary's glut of players at his position (Boyd, Conroy, Primeau, Langkow, Peters) makes that fairly unlikely.

2.) Matt Pelech

"Defensive defensemen" might be the most difficult players to adequately project or define quantitatively. I struggled with where to put Pelech given his unappealing stats and apparent stagnation in Quad Cities last year, although his plus/minus improved nominally over his rookie effort (-3 versus -10). That said, the big man played a couple of games at the NHL level during the Flames spate of injuries and didn't look out of place despite his lack of experience and lackluster foot speed. A defender in the Regehr mode, Pelech is never going to put up any numbers that will be indicative of his worth: until he makes the show and starts taking on a decent level of opposition, he won't look like much of a player on paper. The organization clearly has plans for the former first rounder, however, seeing as they've twice called him up as a "black ace" during the post-season. He was also apparently neck-and-neck with Adam Pardy to make the squad last year, so look for him to challenge for Jim Vandermeer's spot this season.

3.) Kyle Greentree

The 39 goal scorer is 25 years old, so he's likely much closer to his ceiling than kids like Nemisz and Wahl. That said, he's also much closer to making the show. Setting a Flames AHL franchise record in goal scoring last season by gathering the 2nd most tallies in the entire league (on a non-play-off team) is pretty difficult to ignore as well.

Despite his numbers, it's hard to imagine Greentree having legitimate top 6 upside given his advanced age and the fact that more than half of his goals last year came with the man advantage (20). He also has a severe handicap in his skating stride, which is goonishly slow from what I've observed. Undrafted out of college, he's only put up respectable numbers the last few seasons which either indicates a solid, late blooming project - or a guy that needs to be older than his peers in order to get results. Recently re-signed by the Flames, he has a shot to make the club this season thanks to the organizatoins dearth of talent on the wings.

4.) Keith Aulie

Another big defender a la Matt Pelech, Aulie has has actually had the superior Junior career as compared to the older guy. A stalwart with Tyler Mysers on Canada's WJC team this past season (the only Flames prospect to make the Canadian team), the 6'6", 222 pound monster also put up career best offensive numbers (6 goals, 33 points) and plus/minus rating (+12), despite seeing the toughest opposition on a nightly basis for the Brandon Wheat Kings. Aulie turns 20 in June and will likely graduate to Abbotsford to begin his next leg of developement this coming year.

5.) Greg Nemisz

The Flames first rounder from last season put up gawdy numbers on (36g-41a-77pts with a +52) on the Memorial Cup winning Windsor Spitfires. The problem is, the strength of his team is skewing Nemisz's counting stats to such a degree that's it's difficult to get a true read on whether he took a legitimate step forward this season or not. For example, Rob Schremp scored 57 goals and 145 points the year after he was drafted by Edmonton, mainly because of a slew of PP time on a juggernaut London Knights squad. He was - and remains - a lackluster prospect, however, which may be true of Nemisz as well.

A big guy who can play center or wing, word is Nemisz doesn't use his size enough yet and isn't overly aggressive in the corners. He has a good shot and release and his skating isn't the kind of issue it usually is with guys his size, which is encouraging though.

6.) John Negrin

Highly coveted by Sutter judging by the significant amount of attention the org has lathered on the third rounder, Negrin is a tall, slick skating defender with decent offensive instincts and a good first pass. Negrin posted career best totals in goals (8) and points (49) between the Kootenay Ice and Swift Current Broncos last year. He also got a late season cup-o-coffee with the big club and didn't look entirely overwhelmed (although he was severely sheltered during limited ice time). Although tall, Negrin isn't really physical from what I've seen and never put up the kind of offensive numbers at the Junior level where one could pencil him onto the power play without reservations, which limits his upside somewhat. I'm partial to his combination of smooth skating stride and passing ability, however, and think he might actually have the higher ceiling than, say, Pelech depending on how he develops from here on in.

7.) Mitch Wahl

Although his PPG pace didn't improve over last season, Wahl finished the year 2nd on the Spokane Chiefs in goals (32 - career best), points (67) and first in plus/minus (+42). He also co-led the team in points during the post season with 13, due to his team high number of assists (11).

Wahl is a slick skating center who is known for his vision and ability to set up his linemates:

What makes Wahl such a special player, Peters said, is his ability to find the open man and his maturity for his age.

"He makes his wingers better and for a young guy at 17 years old, we have high expectations for Mitch," the Chiefs head coach said. "He plays against other teams best guys a lot of nights. That's hard to do at a young age in the western league but he's able to do it.

"For a kid who came out of a non-traditional market in Seal Beach, Ca., he's got very good hockey sense and elite on-ice vision."

That Wahl was deployed as a tough match-ups guy at 17 and has a cumulative plus/minus of +75 over the last two seasons is big arrow pointing in the right direction.

8.) David Van Der Gulik

A favorite dark horse of mine over the last few years, VDG was a late round, injury prone pick out of the college ranks. At just 5' 10", he doesn't possess a "projectable frame" as scouts like to say and has probably been held back from being a considered "key prospect" due to his size. That said, he's put up favorable results at the AHL level over the last two seasons despite less than ideal circumstances. One of only 3 regular skaters in the black for the QC Flames last season (Eriksson and 4th liner Cam Cunning were the others), VDG has spent a lot of time as a PKer and tough minutes checker since he went professional and has regularly outperformed many of his teammates in the context of his tough assignment. His offensive totals, while consistently decent, aren't enough alone to recommend him as a future NHLer - however, his ability to outscore tough minutes at ES, even with lackluster linemates, suggests he has 3rd/4th line upside at least. His turn on the Flames 4th line this past year, where he put up a great corsi rate in a limited number of games certainly didn't hurt my evaluation of him. I think he has legit shot at finaly making the jump this season.

9.) Leland Iving

The 2006 first round pick had a tough time initially in the AHL, but managed to stabilize himself part way through the year and steal the starting job from the older Matt Keetley. Irving has a good pedigree and put a respectable, if unspectacular, SV% in his first pro season as a 20 year old which has him about on track in terms of his development schedule. Probably not ready to make the leap like cohorts Simeon Varlamov or Steve Mason, I would also put him behind former Flame property Kevin Lalande in terms of NHL readiness. Another year as the undisputed starter and an improved save rate would go a long way to convince me he's a legitimate threat to eventually usurp Kiprusoff.

10.) TJ Brodie

Perhaps a diamond in the rough, Brodie took a big step forward with the Saginaw Spirit this year, scoring a career best 12 goals and 50 points in just 63 games. He improved his PPG pace from 0.44 to 0.79 and was the highest scoring defenseman on his squad by 5 goals and 8 points (despite playing a couple games less than the next closest guy). He was also the 10th highest scoring defender in the OHL.

In addition, Brodie stood out during the Flames prospect camp/tournament where his blend of speed, poise and offensive instincts made him appear to be one of the strongest youngsters in the batch. Another step forward in the OHL next season would indicate the Flames have a keeper on their hands.

Didn't make the cut - Brett Palin, Warren Peters, Brett Sutter, Kris Chucko, Aaron Marvin, Lance Bouma, John Armstrong, Gord Baldwin, Matt Keetley.

The AHL all-stars: Two Girouxes, Rory and a Brodeur

James Mirtle — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:15:07 -0000

The AHL also announced its all-star teams this week, and they give you a decent idea of who some of the top talent is in the NHL's minor league:

Team Canada

Forwards	Defensemen	Goaltenders
Steve Downie, Nor	x-Johnny Boychuk, Pro	Mike Brodeur, Roch
x-Alexandre Giroux, Her	Kyle Cumiskey, LE	Barry Brust, Hou
x-Claude Giroux, Phi	Cody Franson, Milw	x-Brian Elliott, Bing
Mike Iggulden, Bri	Bryan Helmer, Her ("C")
Jason Krog, Man	x-Derek Joslin, Wor
Corey Locke, Hou	Andrew MacDonald, Bri
Brett MacLean, SA	Brett Palin, QC
Mark Mancari, Por	Danny Syvret, Phi
x-Chris Minard, W-B/Scr
Cal O'Reilly, Milw
Teddy Purcell, Man
Martin St. Pierre, Pro
Mike Santorelli, Milw		x-starters

The tough thing about these all-star games is that, not only do you have to hope no one gets injured, but there's also the problem of call ups to consider. Claude Giroux just torched the AHL in his first pro season with 17 goals in 31 games and is now up with the Flyers, perhaps permanently given their injury woes.

At least they don't have to worry about Captain Helmer missing the game. (Great character guy. Was good to see him get some time in the NHL with the Caps as part of his swan song.)

Three Milwaukee players here, all Nashville picks in the midrounds. Franson's a great example of the depth the Predators have on defence now; he's only 21, big and skilled and would be in the NHL with most franchises. (Not bad for a third rounder.)

Purcell looks like a really good NHLer, someone we'll see play a role with the Kings when they're climbing the standings a year or two from now. He probably misses this game, too.

Boychuk leads AHL defencemen in scoring for the Baby Bruins, and I bet the Avs are kicking themselves for dumping him this summer.

And looking at the goalies, I wonder if the Sens will give Elliott a shot in goal if Gerber and Auld continue to struggle. (And in case you're wondering, Mike Brodeur is a distant cousin of Marty. He started the season in the ECHL and has been very good for Rochester in a dozen games so far.)

Team PlanetUSA

Forwards	Defensemen	Goaltenders
Keith Aucoin, Her	Rory Fitzpatrick, Roch ("C")	Jeff Frazee, Low
x-Chris Bourque, Her	Jonas Junland, Peo	Daniel Larsson, GR
x-Nikita Filatov, Syr	Mattias Karlsson, Bing	x-Cory Schneider, Man
x-Nathan Gerbe, Port	x-Jakub Kindl, Gr. Rapids
Martins Karsums, Pro	Ben Lovejoy, W-B/Scr
Tim Kennedy, Port	Bobby Sanguinetti, Hart
Petri Kontiola, Rock	Jaime Sifers, Tor
Drew Miller, Iowa	x-Yannick Weber, Ham
Joe Motzko, Chicago
Michael Ryan, Albany
Ryan Potulny, Spr
Jeff Taffe, W-B/Scr
Ryan Vesce, Wor		x-starters

Vote for Rory paid off! The plucky defenceman gets the captain's 'C' while playing for his hometown Americans despite having a pretty pedestrian season so far.

Aucoin's another veteran worth pointing out: a 5-foot-9 30-year-old playing for one of the best teams in the league, he leads the AHL in scoring by a mile with 48 points in 34 games despite missing some time while playing three games with the Capitals in the NHL.

Filatov's with Columbus at the moment, so his participation's in doubt.

Karsums is a talented young Latvian who I saw at the world juniors quite a bit when they rolled through B.C. two years ago. He's eighth in league scoring and should see time with the big-league Bruins in the near future.

Weber looks like another good one for the Habs, too, who also have P.K. Subban on the way on the blueline.

Kindl... don't tell me you're suprised the Red Wings have another European stud coming on the blueline.

Speaking of Detroit and potential gems, so much for Jimmy Howard as the goalie of the future: Sweden's Danny Larsson has outplayed him by a mile and makes the team here. He was a late third-round pick in 2006.

I know there are some readers who see a lot more AHL hockey than I do; let me know what you think of the teams and some of the players' play to date.