SB Nation - Kari Lehtonen

Flyers Desperate for Goalie, Calling Atlanta?

The Falconer — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 21:35:35 -0000

13 days ago: Vancouver Canucks' Mason Raymond, left, ducks to avoid a slapshot as Atlanta Thrashers' Ondrej Pavelec, of the Czech Republic, makes a blocker save during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia on Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darryl Dyck)

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The suburban Philadelphia Delaware County Times ran a story by Anthony J. Sanflippo speculating that the Flyers are trying hard to trade for a goalie with a big injury to the Philadelphia starting goaltender Ray Emery.

An inordinate number of visiting scouts were jammed into the press box Thursday to watch two struggling teams in the Flyers and the Senators. While the 16 men representing 14 different organizations could have been there to look at the Sens or just for a night out, there was enough rumbling to think they might be there scouting the Flyers because they are in need of another goalie with Ray Emery on the shelf for at least six weeks.
...

Apparently, the sharks are circling around the Flyers. According to another organizational source, the Tampa Bay Lightning, ready to hand their starting job to Antero Niittymaki, contacted the Flyers to gauge their interest in goalie Mike Smith.

Apparently the Flyers are "shocked! shocked!" that other teams in the Eastern Conference would try and screw them over! Let's think about this for a moment. There are 15 teams in the East and just 8 playoff spots. The Devils, Caps and Pens are probably all locks to make the post-season. The Canes and Leafs are probably locks to miss. That means there are 10 East teams fighting for 5 playoff berths. Each team has only a 50% chance of getting in. Guess which teams might have a spare goalie? Atlanta, Islanders and Tampa--all playoff contenders. All three of those teams have a strong self interest in watching the Flyers totally fall out of the playoff race (Flyers currently sit at #11 in the conference standings. If the Flyers do fall out that then leaves 9 teams battling for 5 spots. All the other GMs have to do is just sit back and enjoy the show. Why should they bail out the Flyers who spent big on Pronger and went cheap on goalie depth?

One of the teams with two scouts at the game was the Atlanta Thrashers, who have three goalies. Kari Lehtonen hasn’t played yet this season, recovering from two surgeries on his back, but he is expected to start skating soon. That could make veteran Johan Hedberg or youngster Ondrej Pavelec expendable.

One Flyers source said general manager Paul Holmgren has spoken with Atlanta G.M. Don Waddell in the past about Pavelec, but not recently. Pavelec 22, is a second round pick of the Thrashers (2005, No. 41 overall) out of the Czech Republic and has played in 19 games this season with Atlanta, amassing an 8-7-3 record with a 3.03 GAA and a .914 save percentage along with a couple of shutouts.

Now the Thrashers WILL presumably have 3 NHL goaltenders at some point this season. But given Lehtonen's injury history, it would be premature to deal away a net minder and call up MacIntyre or Mannino before the Christmas trade freeze kicks in. Perhaps if the Flyers were to offer a 1st rounder for next year (strong draft) but the Flyers gave up two 1st rounders already in the Pronger deal so they don't that available for a trade.

Whenever Lehtonen does return to full health, I suspect it will be Kari not Pavelec who will be available for a trade. Kari has worn out the organization. They have waited for him to step up and become the star goaltender he was projected to become. He certainly has the talent but the determination is not there often enough. He swings between an elite and very ordinary from one game to the next. Elite goalies are prepared to play 60 games a year and they are outstanding most of those nights.

Furthermore, Lehtonen has not endeared himself to his teammates with his behavior. One example is the irritation he shows when a puck is tipped or screened in front of him. You don't see Hedberg or Pavelec throw little tantrums after a goal--even if it is the fault of the skaters. It is a team game and some nights the offense bails out the defense and vice versa.

Now Lehtonen has NHL All-Star talent, he just hasn't played like one in a Thrashers uniform. Sadly, he will probably play better after a trade--some guys have to be shook up a little to get them them to concentrate on their career and reach their full potential. The problem for the Thrashers is that they are unlikely to get great value for him after all the injuries and inconsistency over the years.

The one trade I could see happening is a move involving Hedberg. He's playing the best hockey of his career and has great numbers. Now if the Flyers were to offer a good young prospect, perhaps it would make sense for Atlanta to do that. But after receiving good goaltending most of the season management will probably be reluctant to mess with success. Also the offer would have to be pretty enticing--why weaken your own team and strength a rival in your conference?

Home Sweet Home: Canucks-Thrashers Preview

Sean Zandberg — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 08:08:51 -0000

Thrashers (15-10-3) vs Canucks (16-14-0)

GAME TIME: 7:00 PST

TV: CANUCKS PPV

AERIAL NEMESIS: Bird Watchers Anonymous

Update (2:39 PM): AV is pissed. From the Province today: Every time so far this year when I think we're getting on a roll and we're getting traction, we sort of find a way to piss me off again,” Vigneault said following the Canucks' morning skate. “So it's what we're faced with right now. Talk is fine but we need actions. They're a strong group, we believe in them and we have to let their actions speak for themselves with their play on the ice.”

Yeah, you tell 'em, Viggy! You get the feeling the Thrashers are walking into a lion's den tonight? I hope so.

Update (11:55 AM): MindRoom Science and the power of positivity for your Vancouver Canucks? Oh for f**k's sakes. How about my foot in your ass?

Update (11:51 AM): "Looks like meat's back on the menu boys!" OK, not always. There's an entertaining piece up at Canucks.com about what the Canucks eat, or can't eat, etc. Check it out.

Update (8:48 AM): A great piece in the Province today about knee-jerk reactions, slow start trends and how little ice-time the Sedins get. Here is an excerpt:

What never seems to change, however, is the Canucks' dependence on a strong second half. Since Alain Vigneault took over as coach, Vancouver's seasons have followed a remarkably similar script. His team point totals on Dec. 9 in his four seasons have been 29, 35, 33 and, this year, 32. Those reflect mediocre first halfs which force a mad dash for the playoffs. It's worked two of his three seasons. If it's to work again, the Canucks need to use this eight-game homestand as a springboard.

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The inconsistent Canucks return home to play 8 straight games at GM Place in the span of 17 nights. With a 10-4 home record this season, this is their big chance to get on a roll and figure out what it takes to win consistently. Rather than beat the Predators and get into a playoff spot last game, they lost in angering fashion and now sit in 12th spot in the West, 3 points out of a playoff spot. The Flames, who own top spot in the Northwest are now 9 points ahead of us. I'm not going to say any more about the Nucks. I thought all of your inputs in Mike's "Grievance" post below were excellent.

The Thrashers are better on the road (9-4-1) than they are at home (6-6-2). They sit in 6th spot in the East, 3 points up on the 9th place Rangers. This game will not be easy for them (or will it?) Vancouver is the final stop in their 4 game road trip. They have won once and lost 2 so far on the trip. They have played (in order) Florida, Toronto and Calgary. This will be their 2nd game in 2 nights after losing 3-1 in Calgary last night. A perfect chance for the Canucks to take advantage of a tiring team.

More after the jump...

Atlanta had a 6-4-1 record in October, a hot 9-3-2 record in November and a 1-3 record in December. Their management is trying their best to keep Ilya Kovalchuk in Atlanta. Kovalchuk wants to be sure that the team is headed in a winning direction before committing. I can't blame him. Long have the Thrashers toiled in mediocrity. Their success this year caught me by surprise. They have been without their #1 goalie Kari Lehtonen for the entire season due to back surgery. But they seem to have been getting decent goaltending from the 22-year-old Czech Ondrej Pavelec, and excellent results from The Moose Johan Hedberg. Remember him? He was part of the Canucks' goalie graveyard.

A real like-able guy. The crowd always chanted "Moose!" when he made a stellar save. After playing 13 games this season, Hedberg is making a strong case to backup Henrik Ludqvist for the Swedes at the Olympics. His save percentage and GAA rank 2nd and 5th best in the NHL.

We most likely won't see Hedberg between the pipes against the Canucks. He played last night in Atlanta's loss to the Flames.

The Thrashers have several decent weapons in their arsenal. Kovalchuk is still his kick-ass ol' self with 16 goals and 27 points in 22 games. I wonder if the Predators have any regrets for putting Rich Peverley on waivers last January. He has 10 goals and 27 points in 28 games this season. He is making $500,000. His $1.3 million earnings kick in next season. Maxim Afinogenov has found a home in Atlanta. His role was being diminished in Buffalo due to bad defensive play (among other things I'm sure) and they didn't renew his services after his contract expired last summer. You can't be a -16 player in Buffalo. Maxim (cool name or what?) went unclaimed ALL SUMMER. I thought he was heading back to Russia. Atlanta took a chance on him on September 29th and signed him to a 1-year $800,000 contract. I like this kid. He looks and even skates like Pavel Bure. He will definitely be noticeable on the ice tonight. He currently has 11 goals and 15 assists in 27 games this season. He is also a +4. Not bad for a guy that nobody wanted.

Watch out for that Colby Armstrong guy. He doesn't look like a guy that can demolish players with devastating hits, but he can! He reminds me of Mike Peca. Check out some of the carnage here.

More Thrashers player stats here.

The last time the Canucks played the Thrashers was January 2nd. Atlanta beat the Canucks 4-3 in a shootout on home ice. Jason Labarbera, cursed in shootouts, was in goal for Van. The last time the Thrashers played in Vancouver was February 7, 2007. The Canucks shut them down and won 3-2, powered by 2 Brendan Morrison goals.

COMPARATIVE STATS

GOALS PER GAME AVG: Thrashers 3rd overall, Canucks 5th.

GOALS AGAINST PER GAME: Canucks 9th best, Thrashers 18th.

POWER PLAY: Canucks 5th, Thrashers 9th.

PENALTY KILL: Thrashers 6th, Canucks 27th. Uh-oh...

SHOTS PER GAME: Canucks 11th, Thrashers 24th

SHOTS AGAINST PER GAME: Canucks 10th, Thrashers 29th.

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

DD or JDD? Doppelgänger Dilemma

Bruce McCurdy — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:34:36 -0000

More photos » by Jeff McIntosh - AP

Devan Dubnyk

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Lowetide asked me an interesting question the other day: if I were building an expansion team, which one of Edmonton's young goalies might I pick: Deslauriers or Dubnyk? Let's rephrase it slightly to put an Oilers spin on the query: if there were an imaginary expansion draft, which one should we protect?

While there's hopefully no expansion to worry about, the Oilers will essentially face such a choice next summer/fall, or pay a premium to put it off. For now there is no hard overlap between the two, but that day is coming fast. Dubnyk is two years younger than Deslauriers and pretty much Exactly two years behind him on the career curve. In fact the two have a whole lot in common:

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (JDD) was born on May 15, 1984, the day of Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals (Oilers 7, Islanders 2 :)). A long stringbean at 6'4, 200, he was drafted 31st overall in 2002, the first pick of the second round, acquired in the Jochen Hecht trade. (Pick #36, Jarret Stoll, also came courtesy of what turned out to be a pretty good trade.) He was the fourth goalie of his draft class to be chosen. The top 5 were #2 Kari Lehtonen, #25 Cam Ward, #29 Hannu Toivunen, #31 JDD, #34 Tobias Stephen. JDD appears to be a solid third in this group, behind Ward and the injury-plagued Lehtonen but ahead of the other two who fired and fell back.

Devan Dubnyk (DD) was born on May 4, 1986, when the hockey world was still trying to come to grips with Steve Smith's own goal. A longer stringbean at 6''5, 194, he was drafted 14th overall in 2004. He was the second goalie of his draft class to be chosen. The top 5 were #6 Al Montoya, #14 DD, #17 Marek Schwarz, #26 Cory Schneider, #37 David Shantz. A much less proven fivesome, befitting their younger age. Dubnyk is the fourth to get a cup o' coffee, but none have played as many as 500 minutes in the show. DD clearly ranks ahead of Schwarz and Shantz, and it's a toss-up among the others, with Schneider having the best hype. That said, today DD is the only one of the five in the NHL.

At a glance DD and JDD are mirror images of each other with Dubnyk being the longer, stringbeanier, right-handed one with the slightly higher draft pedigree and the slightly less-bumpy career curve.

Both broke into major junior in 2001-02 so let's start there after the jump:

	JDD				DD
Season	League	GP	Sv%	Season	League	GP	Sv%
2001-02	QMJHL	51	0.900	2001-02	WHL	3	0.838
2002-03	QMJHL	49	0.888	2002-03	WHL	26	0.907
2003-04	QMJHL	50	0.916	2003-04	WHL	44	0.917
2004-05	AHL	22	0.888	2004-05	WHL	65	0.912
	ECHL	11	0.940
2005-06	AHL	13	0.897	2005-06	WHL	54	0.912
	ECHL	6	0.899
2006-07	AHL	40	0.908	2006-07	ECHL	43	0.921
					AHL	4	0.855
2007-08	AHL	57	0.912	2007-08	AHL	33	0.904
2008-09	NHL	10	0.901	2008-09	AHL	62	0.906
2008-09	AHL	5	0.906
2009-10	NHL	6	0.920	2009-10	AHL	18	0.924

Dubnyk was the hotter shot, played in the Dub as a call-up at age 15 and a backup at 16. By 17, however, both were starters (44+ GP) in Major Junior. So let's reorganize our data there, recognize that Dubnyk is two years (less 11 days) younger, and match up their seasons by hockey age.

	JDD				DD
Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%	Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%
17	QMJHL	51	0.900	17	WHL	44	0.917
18	QMJHL	49	0.888	18	WHL	65	0.912
19	QMJHL	50	0.916	19	WHL	54	0.912
20	AHL/ECHL	33	0.911	20	ECHL/AHL	47	0.918
21	AHL/ECHL	19	0.898	21	AHL	33	0.904
22	AHL	40	0.908	22	AHL	62	0.906
23	AHL	57	0.912	23	AHL	18	0.924
24	NHL/AHL	15	0.902
25	NHL	6	0.920

There are a lot more similarities than differences on those career curves. Thanks to the Oilers' inexplicable decision to suspend AHL operations for two seasons, JDD's development was more retarded -- using the word carefully -- than was DD's. Deslauriers was on the outside looking in especially in his 21-year-old season, whereas Dubnyk was still in junior that 2005-06 season, then got an everyday gig in the ECHL the next year which didn't hurt him a bit. By his own 21-year-old season he was backing up JDD in Springfield, and getting a reasonable split (37%) of the ice time, over which the Oilers had finally regained control. As a result DD has substantially more games in the lower league, all in one season, whereas JDD spent parts of two seasons in the ECHL and spent a little more time on the bench at whatever level. Thus even though Dubnyk has just begun his 23-year-old season, his pro experience is already a little greater than JDD's was at the end of his equivalent season. To summarize:

	JDD				DD
Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%	Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%
17-19	Major Jr.	150	0.908	17-19	Major Jr.	163	0.914
20-23	Minor Pro	149	0.909	20-23	Minor Pro	160	0.911

So Dubnyk appears to have a slight edge, with a little more experience at both levels and a slightly greater Sv%. While far from perfect, Sv% is the best single measure we have of goaltender performance. It seems probable that quality of team will affect that Sv%. The two only played on the same team for one full season (2007-08 in Springfield) and little pieces of a couple of others. JDD has the better Pts% ("winning percentage") of the two, .511 to .475 in their last 3 years of junior, .507 to .447 in their first 4 years of pro. Some would argue that JDD is therefore more of a winner; others would counter that DD played on worse teams and if anything that makes his superior Sv% that much more impressive.

Beyond that are the non-save effects, the "soft skills" which are so difficult to measure. I’m talking about game management skills, rebound control, puck retrieval and distribution. At the NHL level I estimate these skills or lack thereof might be the equivalent of a bump in a goalie’s Sv% by as much as ± .005. I’ve seen enough of JDD to lump him in the group I call "chaos goalies"; he better be a good stopper, cuz a sweeper he is not. We know less about this aspect of DD's game; what do the scouting reports say? If he’s a "control goalie" that’s another arrow in his quiver; if on the other hand he’s much worse than JDD, he won’t be able to play in this league.

For now Dubnyk faces two realities. He may be a little further than Deslauriers at the same point in his career, but in real time he’s two years behind. JDD has the 16 games of NHL experience, and the 90 games on the bench and all that accrues to that; he’s the NHLer. DD is where JDD was two years ago, called up for a cup of coffee but not guaranteed to even get a game. Last night we saw the two together in the NHL line-up for the first time, but come game time JDD responded to the challenge in a big way, posting a 36-save shutout. He wants to keep Dubnyk on the bench. (That said, if Khabibulin needs a few more days I personally would like to see the two split the upcoming back-to-back games.)

The other reality is that the club has committed to Nikolai Khabibulin who theoretically will be the starting goalie for the next 2.7 ± 1 years. If the idea – or should I say the ideal – is to gradually grow a youngster into the starting role à la Warren Moon and Tom Wilkinson, the timing may actually work in Dubnyk’s favour. JDD will enter his UFA years in 2011; Dubnyk is eligible to do so in 2013, just as Khabibulin’s hefty pact expires. If Dubnyk blossoms, the Oilers will be in position to pay him then.

Still, there’s precious little to choose between the two long stringbeans. By next fall Dubnyk will be in the exact same position that JDD was last year, out of options and needing to clear waivers. In JDD’s case we saw the undesirable result: a three-headed monster in the crease and a lack of roster flexibility elsewhere. As things shape up now, Oilers will face the exact same situation next fall.

In a perfect world, the organization will reach a decision over the summer or by the end of training camp. In a perfect world, they will deal one of the youngsters for an asset that will help the club elsewhere. And in a perfect world, they will make the right choice of which one to keep. My distant early guess is that will be Devan Dubnyk.

Thrashers 2010 Olympics Hockey Preview

The Falconer — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 06:10:45 -0000

The Olympic Games do not get underway until the last two weeks of February, but SB Nation is counting off each potential Olympian playing in the NHL over the next two weeks. Here's a look at which Atlanta Thrashers may be headed to Vancouver in the spring.

Pack Your Bags

Ilya Kovalchuk is a first line player for the Russian Team. The only thing keeping him from Vancouver would be an injury. He won gold at the most recent World Championships and would certainly love to repeat that performance with fellow countrymen Ovechkin and Malkin.

Christoph Schubert will attend given the paucity of German born NHL players. To be honest I don't know anything about German players playing in Europe, but looking at their list of Olympic candidates, I would expect him to be in their top four defenseman.

Nearly A Lock

Ondrej Pavelec is unlikely to displace Vokoun as the starter for Czech team, but I would consider him the favorite to win the #2 job.

Pavel Kubina is another near lock to represent his team in the spring. He may have lost a step but he still plays big minutes and key situations in the NHL against elite level opponents.

Fairly Safe Bet

Tobias Enstrom should qualify as one of the top 7 defensemen from Sweden. I would rank Lidstrom, Kronwall and Ohlund ahead of him, but Enstrom should be the next four along with Victor Hedman, Oduja, and Tallinder. The tiny defender has proven very adept at playing in small North America rinks against large NHL players.

Ilya Nikulin--OK he's not a Thrasher at the moment, but the team did draft him way back in 2000. Each summer Thrashers fans are treated to rumors he might sign and come to Atlanta. But Nikulin is a big star in the KHL (a starter in their All-Star Game) and has represented his nation at the World Championships. Thrasher fans will get a look at what they have been missing all these years.

In A Battle

Ron Hainsey was invited to the American Olympic Camp, but when I look at the roster I would rank 4 players as a lock at defense (Rafalski, Martin, Suter, Komisarek) and a bunch of guys fighting for the last three slots: Whitney, Gleason, Hainsey, E. Johnson, Goligoski, and Gilbert. Hainsey is probably in the mix, but personally I'd take American Zach Bogosian over Hainsey.

Work To Do

Maxim Afinogenov was on Team Russia's list of potential players, but they have a very deep pool to chose from. Throw in traditional Russian hockey politics (half the team is supposed to come from the KHL) and I have a hard time seeing Max make the final cut.

Rich Peverley is in the top 20 in scoring in the NHL and will likely get almost no consideration for Team Canada. That's the nature of the beast when you're from north of the border. Many good hockey Canadian hockey players have no chance.

Moving Up

Zach Bogosian has been nothing short of spectacular this season. He's leading all NHL defensemen in goals and can also supply a good hit here and there. Thrashers GM Don Waddell is part of the selection committee and makes reports on prospective Team USA members. I would expect that Bogosian's name will be discussed at length.

Moving Down

Boris Valabik has just now returned to the ice after an injury. He did not look all that sharp in Training Camp.

Kari Lehtonen has not even begun to practice after two back surgeries. Not going to happen this year.

Thursday links: Where we hope the Blues can touch a Flame even if it's red hot

averagejoe — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:15:24 -0000

What a shitty Wednesday. Arrived an hour early for a football game I was covering. The team I cover lost making kids and grown men cry. I had to drive to freaking Iowa to get WiFi and, oh, I got pulled over for doing 35 in a 30 -- even though I though the speed limit was 45. Then the WiFi wouldn't work. Sigh. You know what can make things better? Blues hockey.

Blues news

Here's a preview for tonight's tilt between the Calgary Flames and your St. Louis Blues. [Sporting News]
As Gallagher said: the Danes are coming. Lars Eller will make his debut tonight. Over/under on minutes played set at 5 -- the Cam mark. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]
T.J. Oshie is back and, presumably, a few pounds lighter. [Belleville News-Democrat]
I gotta agree with Bernie, the Blues big names need to step up. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]
For the first time in links history, a Today show interview is linked. David Backes teaches Meredith Veira how to play hockey. [Today]
For more on the Flames go here. [Matchsticks and Gasoline]

Hockey news

Six games last night means six winners. Find out who by clicking. [Yahoo! Sports]
Thursday night must be hockey night. [Yahoo! Sports]
Peter Forsberg might be going to the KHL. [The Denver Post]
Much ado about blackface. [Puck Daddy]
Once again, it appears sports teams are getting preferential treatment. [TSN]
An OHL player is suspended for the season after a boarding hit. Yowza. [TSN]
Shane O'Brien and Dane Byer received lighter suspensions. They will both miss one game. [TSN]
Thrashers goaltender Kari Lehtonen is out. [ESPN]

Other links

Our favorite horse fucker is going to prison. [Associated Press]
Dodge Viper ... or Daffy Duck?[Buzz Feed]

Video

After getting a ticket tonight, there is only video that sums up how I feel: (Language NSFW)

Note: If you're a cop or friends of a cop, please know I'm just kidding. Another video after the jump.

Maybe, maybe the Blues can play like this tonight.

gametimelinks(at)gmail.com GO BLUES!

Five Questions with Hockey Analyst Gabriel Desjardins

The Falconer — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 12:00:44 -0000

Long time readers of Bird Watchers Anonymous know that I favor the statistical approach to sports analysis. I frequently use "new" hockey stats like Corsi Numbers, Goal Differential and Zone Shift. The field of advanced hockey analysis has been advanced by many people, but Gabriel Desjardins has made an enormous contribution by creating and maintaining a site that collects and displays data buried in the NHL.com play-by-play sheets. I've used his Behind the Net stats site since it first appeared after the lockout. At a minimum, his site has made life much easier for those of us who are not adept at computer programming (like me!).

We at SB Nation are very happy that Gabe has joined the site. He will be contributing posts at his Behind the Net blog on statistical analysis of the NHL. Gabe was kind enough to take a few minutes to talk about what to expect from his blog, how he fell for NHL hockey and some of his thoughts on two Thrashers statistical controversies.

Question #1: What sort of topics can readers look forward to reading at Behind The Net in the future?

GD: I'd divide it into three categories: 1) pieces that introduce important statistical concepts in hockey, and survey some of the work that various people have done (feel free to link to the 10-part series I just wrote); 2) answering questions that SBNation bloggers have about their teams; 3) columns that explore the statistical data that gets collected every game--we've still just scratched the surface of answering important questions like, "what characteristics winning teams or players have?"

(more after the jump)

Question #2: What is your background as a statistical blogger? Do you have a day job in math or computing that helps out?

GD: I have a BS and MS in Electrical Engineering, and I took enough math classes to get a minor if we'd had them where I went to college. In my day job, I design audio chips, which involves math, computer simulation and statistical modeling, but is actually quite tangential to sports analysis. In electrical engineering, you'd throw out a model if it was only 90% successful in predicting performance. In sports, we'd be overjoyed if we could get to 90%. You need to use very different tools as a result.

via www.hockeyforum.com

Question #3: What is your background as a NHL fan? Were you a fan of Hawerchuk and Jets growing up? (His screen name is "Hawerchuk")

GD: First game: Feb 18, 1983, Jets-Bruins -- a pretty good 6th birthday present. My dad got me a Jets jersey with Hawerchuk's #10 on the back. I remember getting to the arena and being surrounded by other people with Hawerchuk jerseys - and being really shocked that I wasn't the only one! The 1984-85 Jets were amazing (though looking back, I realize they outplayed their expected performance quite substantially) but Jets fans were crushed repeatedly in a short period of time: Jamie Macoun rupturing Hawerchuk's spleen in the first round of the playoffs; the Oilers steamrolling a team that didn't have its star in the second round; and then perhaps the greatest tragedy in modern Winnipeg history, John Ferguson trading Dave Babych to the Hartford Whalers for a bag of pucks. That broke my heart, which was further ruptured by the team moving to Phoenix. I didn't really come back to hockey until a few years ago, despite going to college 90 minutes from Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto, I saw one live NHL game in four years.

Question #4: Kari Lehtonen consistently faces more shots per game than backup Johan Hedberg. Some fans argue that Lehtonen gives up more rebounds, while others think Lehtonen gets more tough starts. Have you seen any evidence to suggest that goalie tendencies lead to more rebounds, and therefore, boost the Shots Against per Game?

GD: At 5-on-5, Lehtonen gave up rebounds (defined as shots within 4 seconds of a prior shot on goal) 9.0% of the time over the last two seasons. Hedberg was 8.7%. The league average is 8.6%. Down a man, Lehtonen was 8.4% vs 8.1% for Hedberg. That's seven extra rebounds over two seasons, and maybe 2 or 3 goals against. There is also zero year-to-year correlation in rebound percentage. So it's not rebounds that are the issue, it's the caliber of the opposing teams and how many shots they direct at goal, and potentially any injuries Atlanta had. This would make a very interesting column, btw -- do we expect Lehtonen to face the same number of shots that he did last year, and Hedberg?

Editorial Note: Desjardins decided to take a longer look this question in a new blog post.

Question #5: In the 2nd half of last season, the Thrashers were a break-even hockey team despite being outshot significantly most nights. Some team officials say scoring chances matter more than net shot differential, but general analysis of the NHL finds that Net Shots or Net Shots Attempted (aka Corsi Number) appear to be correlated with Even Strength Goal Differential. Do you think a team can consistently be outshot and yet stay even in scoring chances over the course of a season?

GD: We need to make a distinction between overall play and even-strength play. A team that gets lots more power plays than it gives up, (ie - one with great penalty drawing abilities) would get more scoring chances than its shot differential indicates because you get more scoring chances per shot on the PP.

But at even-strength, it's a different story. I estimate that the combination of the defensive system and personnel can reduce long-term expected shooting percentage by 5-10%. Presumably, they'd have the same impact on scoring chance rates. So you could get outshot by as much as 10%, but be even in scoring chances. That's the Jacques Lemaire strategy. But most coaches don't have these skills, and it would be tough to fit six chance-suppressing defensemen under the cap and have any money left over for forwards.

Tuesday links: Where Manny Legace can't take a hint and hang 'em up edition

averagejoe — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 11:01:04 -0000

Where did fall go? My apartment is too cold for October and I'm too cheap to turn on the heat. Oh well. At least cold means hockey.

Blues news

It's auction time for the Blues. You can buy all sorts of signed stuff ... and tickets. [Blues]
Haven't had a chance to see a game live? Wonder what the pregame video is? If you are, you have problems. Here it is, weirdo. [Blues]
Good news for Alex Pietrangelo: He's not being limited by the nine-game rights clause. Bad news for Petro: Andy Murray said he could go back to juniors at any time. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]
The Blues are trying to fix what ails them. [Belleville News-Democrat]
The Blues had a hard practice and Anthony Peluso is on the move. [STLtoday.com]
"St. Louis Blues Assign John Davidson to AHL Peoria Rivermen" -- this headline really confused me. [MLN Raw Feed]

Hockey news

Lots of games on the schedule for a Monday night. [Yahoo! Sports]
Three games on Tuesday. Go Buffalo, Toronto and Calgary? [Yahoo! Sports]
Manny Legace sighting: He's signed a tryout deal with the Chicago Wolves. [Daily Herald]
Fragile Jay McKee is no longer an overpaid question. Now hes a cheap answer. Hey Pierre LeBrun -- it's only October. [ESPN]
ESPN does its power rankings. After two wins, the Blues were fourth. After two losses, the Blues are 23rd. Makes sense. [ESPN]
I'm sure Hildymac will love this -- a look at Kari Lehtonen vs. Johan Hedberg.[Behind the Net]
Bag skates, those skate until you puke workouts, don't really work. At least, that's what Ray "Chicken Parm" Ferraro says. Thoughts, Answer Man? [TSN]

Other links

This is more than a month old, but NatetheGreat. couldn't pass up a joke about an "epic golden shower." [Space.com]
Bob and Larry look an awful lot like a dong and some balls. (Also from NatetheGreat.) [Consumerist]
How to draw ... a stickman. [eHow]

Video

I don't understand Japan.

gametimelinks(at)gmail.com

Lehtonen vs Hedberg

Hawerchuk — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 00:28:20 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

9 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Kari Lehtonen makes a save against the New York Rangers during the first period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, March 26, 2009, in Atlanta. Atlanta won in a shootout, 5-4.(AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

The Atlanta Thrashers have two goaltenders who have essentially split duties for the last two years, Kari Lehtonen and Johan Hedberg. By every metric, Lehtonen is the better goalie of the two: they've faced roughly the same quality of shots, but Lehtonen has a better save percentage and a better goals-against-average, not just overall, but every single year.

What's even stranger is that Lehtonen consistently faces more shots than Hedberg per 60 minutes:

	Hedberg	Lehtonen	Diff
06-07	28.4	31.6	11.5
07-08	31.9	34.6	8.2
08-09	30.6	34.3	12.0

	30.6	33.2	8.5

Where does this difference come from? It's not rebounds - they each give up approximately 9% of their shots on rebounds. So what else could it be?

It's also not that Lehtonen is somehow getting starts against better teams. This table shows the shots/60 for opposing teams, prorated to how much ice time each goalie had against each team:

	Hedberg	Expected	Diff	Lehtonen	Expected	Diff
06-07	28.4	29.4	-3.6	31.6	29.9	6.0
07-08	31.9	30.1	6.3	34.6	29.7	16.4
08-09	30.6	30.4	0.5	34.3	30.8	11.3

	30.6	30.0	2.0	33.2	30.1	10.5

So if it's not rebounds and it's not due to a better group of opponents, what is it? It's certainly not luck - while the standard deviation in shots/60 was slightly higher for the group of teams Lehtonen faced, the odds are much, much less than 0.01% that it happened by chance. It's not a home/road issue either - Lehtonen was much more likely to play at home (54%) than Hedberg (42%), so if anything this makes Lehtonen's high shot total even less likely.

So what about the impact of Atlanta players who were in the lineup when each goalie was playing? At 5-on-5 over the last two seasons (including missed shots), it's very stark:

	PCT TOI	PCT TOI	Shot/60	Shot/60
Player	Lehtonen	Hedberg	Lehtonen	Hedberg	Delta
TOBIAS ENSTROM	33.0	33.9	47.4	38.6	8.8
NICLAS HAVELID	30.2	30.8	49.3	41.6	7.6
ILYA KOVALCHUK	30.2	30.9	46.0	44.2	1.9
GARNET EXELBY	26.5	29.8	45.9	43.2	2.7
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	27.0	26.2	41.1	41.2	-0.1
TODD WHITE	25.7	26.0	45.3	43.9	1.4
ERIC PERRIN	23.5	24.8	42.7	43.8	-1.0
CHRIS THORBURN	19.5	18.6	46.8	38.5	8.2
BRYAN LITTLE	17.5	22.9	42.8	43.7	-0.9
KEN KLEE	15.9	17.4	40.3	41.8	-1.5
COLBY ARMSTRONG	17.2	15.8	42.9	39.6	3.3
RON HAINSEY	15.6	15.4	44.1	44.0	0.1
BOBBY HOLIK	14.6	14.5	45.5	38.2	7.3
ERIC BOULTON	15.8	14.2	48.4	43.1	5.3
ALEXEI ZHITNIK	14.5	14.2	43.7	47.3	-3.6
JIM SLATER	14.2	16.6	49.0	39.8	9.1
MARTY REASONER	11.8	11.8	41.9	41.4	0.5
BORIS VALABIK	10.2	10.9	44.9	46.4	-1.5
MARIAN HOSSA	10.0	12.7	43.3	41.8	1.4
PASCAL DUPUIS	9.8	10.6	42.7	38.2	4.5
STEVE MCCARTHY	12.5	9.4	44.1	46.7	-2.6
MARK RECCHI	12.7	7.5	45.8	49.2	-3.5
BRAD LARSEN	7.5	6.7	44.2	38.5	5.7
ERIK CHRISTENSEN	10.8	6.7	44.5	45.4	-0.9
ZACH BOGOSIAN	12.4	6.6	46.4	42.6	3.8
COLIN STUART	8.5	6.5	45.9	39.4	6.5
NATHAN OYSTRICK	6.4	12.3	40.1	39.8	0.3
MATHIEUSCHNEIDER	11.8	5.8	42.3	41.4	0.8
RICHPEVERLEY	8.8	5.6	51.1	40.9	10.2
MARKPOPOVIC	4.9	7.1	38.0	39.1	-1.1

For reasons that are unclear to me, many of Atlanta's player give up dramatically higher shot rates when Lehtonen is in goal. The top D pair of Enstrom and Havelid is particularly odd - how could they possibly give up so many more shots when Lehtonen's in goal given that the caliber of opponents is the same as when Hedberg's in goal? And it's not as though this effort (or lack thereof) is matched on the offensive end - Atlanta had 34.6 shots on goal per 60 regardless of who was in goal. A hockey mystery remains unsolved...

***update***

Some have suggested that the defensemen are aware that Hedberg is a weaker goalie and they consequently try to block more shots - that's not borne out by the stats: 12.4 blocks/game when Hedberg's in vs 12.6 for Lehtonen.

***update #2***

Commenter Likens has suggested that the difference in shot totals may have something to do with the score when each of these goalies are playing. Because Hedberg is demonstrably worse than Lehtonen, he ends up playing with his team behind more often. When teams are behind, they allow fewer shots, mostly because their opponents are playing more defensively.

It's true that Hedberg played behind more than Lehtonen over the last two seasons - he was down 1-3 goals 29.8% of the time versus 27.3% for Hedberg. This explains some of the difference. But what caught my eye was that when the game was tied, Lehtonen saw 47.0 shots/60, while Hedberg saw 43.3 shots/60. That's a big difference, and again, not something we can write off as luck.

Point/Counterpoint with Aaron & Tim: On Trading Kari Lehtonen

aaron b — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 11:00:31 -0000

by John Bazemore - ASSOCIATED PRESS

View full size photo »

POINT: Trade Kari Lehtonen

1) It's Not Me, It's You.

"Right now, he's not in the mix. Saying he's No. 1, that's not true. I'll put him in when he's actually ready, but right now the No. 1 job is up for grabs. "

Atlanta Thrashers Head Coach John Anderson

"Even when Lehtonen is healthy, he should not assume that the #1 job is his. At this point, I don't think he has earned the right to expect that."

Atlanta Thrashers General Manager Don Waddell

84. That's the number of games missed by Kari Lehtonen since 2005. That's an average of twenty one games a year over Kari's four full seasons in Atlanta. The bulk of these games (41) were missed in the 2005-2006 season, the year the Thrashers fell short of the playoffs by two points. I'm not the strongest stat guy here at BWA, but I feel confident stating the outcome of that season would be a little different had Kari not missed half the year.

$9,700,000. That's the total amount of money paid to Kari Lehtonen over four full seasons, almost a quarter of which he hasn't played. To compound the situation, Kari's rehabilitation never seems to go "as planned." Yes, rehab is very much dependent upon unique personal characteristics, but even when it comes to something as routine as starting training camp in shape, Lehtonen seems to struggle. Take the latest injury - back trouble. It's a relatively simple process: get fixed - get rehab - get back in net. Here's the thing: if rehab is going according to plan, why would your GM give even a whiff of frustration with your position and playing situation?

Goalies are known for their "personality quirks", but most manifest themselves in subtle and non-disruptive ways. Well, let's talk about blue hair for just one minute. Having messed around with more than my fair share of hair dye from my late teens to early twenties, I can't exactly bag on the young man too hard. Maybe it was more the attention paid to the blue hair, and not the hair (or it's blueness) itself that caused such a stir. And I am by no means laying the blame for an opening round playoff sweep at the feet of a Smurfy coif. But one question, how often have you seen Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, or even Marty Turco running around the clubhouse with outrageously dyed hair? Now, no one is saying All-Star goalies can't have outrageously dyed hair. But would an All-Star goalie want to have outrageously dyed hair? Before you start ripping me about this one, riddle me this--how would your coworkers perceive you if you walked in one day during a stressful time, trying to land a big account, and you had dyed your hair an unnatural shade of whatever color? How would that effect "office chemistry?" Right or wrong, regardless of intent, actions have consequences.

2) A Change of Scenery/Light a Fire

In July of 2002, the Atlanta Thrashers traded Ruslan Zainullen (who?...exactly), to the Calgary Flames for a young forward named Marc Savard. Savard was without a doubt talented, but his struggles with Calgary coach Greg Gilbert landed him a ticket to Atlanta. By the end of the 05/06 season, Savvy had lined up with Ilya Kovalchuk and posted 47, 52 & 97 point seasons, leading to a 4 yr./$20 million deal with the Boston Bruins.

In 2000, Martin St. Louis was bought out by Calgary (whoops again) and picked up by the Tampa Bay Lightning for a mere $225,000 (by some hotshot GM named Rick Dudley). Over the past 8 years in Tampa, St. Louis has averaged almost 71 points per season.

Right now Savvy is seething over his being passed over for Canada's Olympic team:

'I feel that I had a chance to at least go to the camp. I didn't really come out and say anything. I had a lot of calls for a couple weeks after that. It's something I didn't want to talk about. I was pretty mad about it. I've had to prove myself over and over again. I'm hoping to get off to a good start. I still haven't counted myself out, so I guess that's all that matters.'

I don't know about you, but I'm not going to get in his way.

My point is simply, a trade is sometimes the best thing to shake a player out of complacency and into a state of productivity. The Atlanta Thrashers have invested: a first round pick, four years of time, and almost $10 million dollars in Kari Lehtonen, and he's responded with nothing more than simmering, unrealized potential. Something needs to change. I propose it is not only in the Thrashers best interest, but also in Kari's best interest for a trade to happen while there is still time for him to flourish.

3) Get While The Getting's Good

At this point in the Thrashers existence, they've got more depth than ever. Their forward corps can no longer be labeled "offensively challenged", and their d-men are a young and very talented group. The only pieces the Thrashers lack are consistent netminding and a dependable penalty kill. Goaltenders reach peak effectiveness later than forwards and defensemen, and that should be used to the Thrashers advantage. Given the potential still possessed by Kari, and the relative in-expense of a penalty killer, one of those needs could be immediately taken care of. As I sit writing, my Twitter feeds are blowing up with players being placed on waivers, demanding trades - now is the time to move. Hey, if the Thrashers act fast, they could probably lock up this guy named Manny Legace. I hear he's pretty good, and doesn't have a contract yet.

All of this bypasses the largest of the elephants in the room--the impending expiration of Ilya Kovalchuk's contract. What kind of message does it send to a star player contemplating his future when the team allows such a large question mark to reside in a key position?

4) Hope Is Not A Marketing Strategy

I recently attended a business conference where the phrase, "Hope Is Not A Marketing Strategy," was pounded into us on a daily basis. You see, the line of work I'm in finds itself floundering, due to a lack of discretionary spending on the part of the general public. Unfortunately, the general response of most people in my industry is one of total stop and stare, like deer in headlights. Apparently, this is not how business gets done. Decisive action is required. You can't be anchored to a proven ineffective method when money is short and time is of the essence.

Any of this sound familiar?

A year ago Thrasherville was faced with a regime change: new coach, new system, and a new mindset. "Team" has been emphasized more than in the past, and leadership has been placed with those who should carry it. The on-ice game plan has changed drastically. Those who couldn't fit have moved on, and the team is (overall) the better for it. A sea-change has occurred everywhere on this team, except in the position that matters most: the goaltending. Why is that? Why are the Thrashers holding on to a complacent player who has yet to deliver on his considerable promise and potential?

If we only knew.

COUNTERPOINT: Keep Kari Lehtonen

Tim's Take: It's hard to argue in favor of Kari Lehtonen. As a guy who was picked 2nd overall in the 2002 NHL Entry Draft, you expect him to produce big returns. The Thrashers could have had Jay Bouwmeester! Let us, for a moment, look at other goalies who have been taken high in drafts around the same year as Kari:

Name	Draft Position	GP	Win %	Save %	GAA	Injured G/Yr	09-10 Salary
Lehtonen	2^nd (2002)	204	0.531	0.912	2.87	21	$3MM
DiPietro	1^st (2000)	273	0.511	0.905	2.79	16	$4.5MM
Fleury	1^st (2003)	235	0.566	0.907	2.87	8	$3.5MM
Montoya	6^th (2004)	5	0.750	0.925	2.08	N/A	$0.75MM

What can we gather from this information? Well, Lehtonen has pretty similar stats to these guys. His win percentage is in-between DiPietro and Fleury. I might argue that has something to do with the team that plays in front of each goaltender. Kari's career save percentage is higher than all but Al Montoya... though with only 5 NHL games under his belt, we'll probably have to throw those out due to the small sample size. Kari's GAA is right in line with Fleury and just slightly higher than DiPietro's. He's played the least number of games of the group and been injured the most - a point Aaron made above.

That said, he's also taking home the smallest paycheck of the group. If you look at cap hits, Kari looks even more affordable. (Fleury: 5 million, DiPietro: 15 years at 4.5 million...) Goalies don't typically play every game anyway. Would I like for Kari to be injured less? Sure. He's still playing a reasonable number of games per year with stats that are acceptable for his salary.

So what's the rub against Kari? Is it the games missed due to injury? I keep hearing from fans that Kari shows up to camp in terrible shape. My sense of it is that he's gotten far more serious about conditioning over the past couple years: it was a problem, but he's taken the necessary steps to correct it. In fact, didn't Kari stay in the U.S. last summer to work on his rehab and conditioning? Or am I mis-remembering that?

The real question I have is this: if not Kari, then whom? The uproar over releasing Manny Legace suggests that Thrashers fans are not ready for the Ondrej Pavelec era. Is Manny Legace the solution, then? Should our young, up-and-coming team rely on a goalie who is 36 years old? Does the youth movement stop just short of the goalie's crease?

Name me a team and I can name you problems with their starting goaltender. Roberto Luongo is a pretty talented guy, but he's making $7,500,000 this year. Next year he takes home $10,000,000 on a contract that extends well into his 40s with a cap hit over $5 million. I hear Wings fans complain about Osgood all the time... until the post-season, that is. I could go on.

The fact is, goaltenders are the final line of defense against goals. If the goaltender fails at his job, there's a pretty good chance it's a goal-against. In this way it is all too easy to blame them for failing the team. "If only Kari was the elite goalie we expected him to be!" If only my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. Guess what, folks? You don't earn a 0.912% save rate over your NHL career by eating Twinkies and blocking pucks with your fatty behind. (Notable exception in Thrashers history: Andy Sutton.)

So folks, let's put the pitchforks and torches down a moment. Kari will be out for several weeks to start the season. During that time, we'll have a chance to see what Ondrej can do. When Kari comes back, we should have some healthy competition.

One more thing to think about: just because we can trade him doesn't mean we'll get something good back. A year ago, a large proportion of Thrashers fans were ready to trade Todd White for a bag of pucks. Last year, he had a career year at a very affordable price. Kari's value is at a low-point right now, and the rule of thumb in stocks applies here as well: buy low, sell high. (Also applicable to fantasy sports.) Trading Kari Lehtonen might be in the long-term interest of the Atlanta Thrashers, but trading him at this point in his career would be a fatal mistake.

Think about it: which team will trade for a frequently-injured goalie who has some personality quirks when Manny Legace is sitting at home without a job?

Poll

What should the Thrashers do with goalie Kari Lehtonen?

Trade him; his time with the Thrashers is up.

105 votes

Give him one more year; if he doesn't improve, move him.

120 votes

Keep him; it'd be foolish to let him go.

46 votes

271 votes | Poll has closed