SB Nation - Manny Fernandez

How waiver exemption paved way for Backstrom's NHL career

James Mirtle — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:49:25 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

I have a few more details on how the Wild ended up landing Niklas Backstrom up at Globe on Hockey today, including the tidbit that Manny Fernandez was on the trade block long before he was ever salary dumped to Boston in 2007. It's hard to believe, too, that they thought they had their No. 1 in Josh Harding more than three years ago, and he's still muddling along as a backup.

Who is and isn't waiver eligible has become a big deal under this new CBA, and it's interesting how Minnesota seemingly found a bit of a workaround to the three goalie problem we've seen crop up over and over postlockout. I think we'd see this happen a lot more if European goalies were more willing to play in the minors in order to earn a shot at the NHL.

Talking to Backstrom earlier this week, you got the sense he had always wanted that NHL shot and just never got it. He also said he didn't feel he was a late bloomer, given he was one of the top netminders in Finland at junior age, but that 10 years ago, there just weren't as many opportunities for European goalies. (Although Kiprusoff, Toskala, etc. were drafted.)

Top goaltenders postlockout (by save percentage)

Rk	Player	GP	W	L	T/OT	SO	GAA	SV%
1	Niklas Backstrom	186	100	53	23	17	2.27	0.922
2	Jonas Hiller	83	39	28	3	5	2.37	0.921
3	Tomas Vokoun	246	123	90	26	22	2.58	0.921
4	Tim Thomas	228	111	78	29	15	2.58	0.919
5	Craig Anderson	100	41	30	14	8	2.70	0.918
6	Cristobal Huet	184	96	60	18	17	2.44	0.918
7	Martin Brodeur	274	165	86	23	27	2.31	0.917
8	Roberto Luongo	292	156	101	31	25	2.51	0.917
9	Henrik Lundqvist	281	150	89	35	21	2.33	0.916
10	Dominik Hasek	140	93	31	13	18	2.09	0.914
11	Chris Mason	183	85	64	21	17	2.54	0.914

2009-10 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins

James Mirtle — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 12:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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Who's in: Steve Begin, Derek Morris
Who's out: P.J. Axelsson, Manny Fernandez, Shane Hnidy, Steve Montador, Aaron Ward, Stephane Yelle

Outlook: With the majority of the Bruins new cap contributions committed to contracts for Tim Thomas and David Krejci, Boston was pretty quiet in free agency, opting only to bring back greybeard Mark Recchi and sign defenceman Derek Morris, useful plugger Steve Begin and backup netminder Dany Sabourin. In terms of losses, there were a few, with long-time checking forward P.J. Axelsson, netminder Manny Fernandez, centre Stephane Yelle and defenders Aaron Ward, Steve Montador and Shane Hnidy all headed elsewhere.

Add in the fact that Phil Kessel, a restricted free agent, is expecting a big pay raise despite the team's lack of payroll room, and the Bruins lineup could look considerably different come October. Indications are that Kessel will be moved out in the near future, and his contributions up front will likely be missed.

Where Boston will be hoping for more is from Marco Sturm and Andrew Ference, two players who played well last season but missed significant time due to injury. A healthy return from both would go a long way toward offsetting some of the Bruins losses.

Perhaps the biggest reason for optimism, however, is the fact Boston should easily remain the top dog in the Northeast Division given their rivals are all regrouping after poor seasons. Barring a major injury to a key cog like Thomas or Zdeno Chara, Boston should be a top team in the wide-open Eastern Conference.

X-factor: Phil Kessel

For a more in-depth Bruins preview, visit Stanley Cup of Chowder
For more NHL analysis, check out the McKeen's Hockey Yearbook

Poll

Where will the Bruins finish in the Eastern Conference this season?

1

47 votes

2

90 votes

3

110 votes

4

30 votes

5

17 votes

6

13 votes

7

11 votes

8

2 votes

9

3 votes

10

3 votes

11

0 votes

12

0 votes

13

0 votes

14

1 votes

15

10 votes

337 votes | Poll has closed

2009-10 Boston Bruins Season Preview

Stanley Cup of Chowder — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:23:06 -0000

I was planning on writing my big season preview closer to the start of the regular season, but James Mirtle and the SBN Hockey crew decided to have 2 blogs write season previews for each the 15 days leading up to the start of the regular season (one from the East and one from the West each day). The order was determined by alphabetical order, so here is your early edition Bruins season preview.

2008-09 Season Recap

The B's surpassed all expectations last season, finishing first in the Eastern Conference with a regular season record of 53-19-10 (116 points) and regaining mainstream relevance in the Boston sports landscape. Goaltender Tim Thomasand defenseman Zdeno Chara both had career years in '08-'09, winning the Vezina and Norris respectively. 08-09 also saw the emergence of several young players including David Krejci (22-51-73), Phil Kessel (36-24-60), Blake Wheeler (21-24-45), Matt Hunwick (6-21-27, +15), Milan Lucic (17-25-42, 1 broken pane of glass) and Mark Stuart (5-12-17, +20). Offseason signing Michael Ryder proved the doubters wrong by potting 27 goals, while playmaker Marc Savard led the team in points (88) and assists (63).

The Bruins roared into the first round of the playoffs by dismantling the hated Montreal Canadiens in 4 games. However, the Bruins would hit a roadblock in the second road when the ran up against the Carolina Hurricanes. The B's took the Canes to 7 games, but ultimately Carolina would advance...on a goal from Scott Walker of all people.

Who's In

The Bruins didn't dive head-first into the free agent market this offseason but they were able to make a few additions that should help the hockey club.

Derek Morris (D, free agent signing)
The Bruins seemed to be lacking that highly-coveted puck-moving defenseman last season and struggled at times trying to start the attack from their own end of the rink. Hopefully, Derek Morris can be that guy for the B's this season.

Steve Begin (F, free agent signing)
Steve Begin was the guy that B's fans loved to hate when he was wearing Bleu, Blanc, et Rouge, but they will probably love him now that he is in Black & Gold. He a Grade A pest that will create traffic in front of the net and provide plenty of grit. Begin will likely fill the role vacated by Stephane Yelle...only with a little more nasty.

Tuukka Rask (G, call up)
The much-heralded goaltending prospect will likely get a crack at being a full-time NHL player this season. The 22 year old Finnish puckstopper will likely be the backup to Tim Thomas this season.

Dany Sabourin (G, free agent signing)
The Bruins signed Sabourin to give the Bruins some depth at the goalie position. It's never a bad thing to have another goalie with NHL experience.

Marco Sturm (LW, return from injury) and Patrice Bergeron (C, return from injury)
OK, so Sturm and Bergeron aren't technically additions to the team but it will be nice to have these guys healthy and back in the line-up.

Other Depth Additions: Matt Dalton (G), Trent Whitfield (C), Andy Wozniewski (D), Drew Larman (C), Drew Fata (D)

Who's Out

Aaron Ward (D, traded to Carolina)
The veteran defenseman was shipped back to his former team in a salary dump move. I have to say I am going to miss Ward Wednesdays on Toucher & Rich.

Steve Montador (D, signed with Buffalo)
The Steve Montador experiment didn't go exactly as planned.

Shane Hnidy (D, signed with Minnesota)
I can't say I am really sad to see The Sheriff leave town.

Phil Kessel (F, RFA/expected to be traded or sign elsewhere)
All summer long there has been a lot of speculation regarding Phil Kessel's future in Boston. At this point, it looks like #81's days in The Hub could be numbered.

Manny Fernandez (G, UFA/still looking for a team)
The oft-injured veteran goaltender was contemplating retirement after the Bruins let him walk at the end of the season, but decided to test the free agent waters. So far, there has not been any nibbles for Manny.

P.J. Axelsson(LW, UFA/signed with Swedish team)
The Bruins decided not to re-sign the long-tenured Bruin and P.J. returned to his home country. Axelsson's game started to decline a bit in the last few years, but his presence on the PK will be missed.

Stephane Yelle (C, UFA/signed with Carolina)
Yelle was solid defensively and at the dot last season, but I think others can fill this role just fine.

Team Strengths

Like most Claude Julien teams, the Bruins are strong in their own end of the rink and play a puck possession game, however that doesn't mean that they can't put the puck in the net. The Bruins are returning a solid nucleus of young talent with an extra year of experience under their belts. On paper, their goaltending is the strongest it has been in years, but this is the first time that Tim Thomas has been called upon to be the definitive starter. Hopefully, he can prove that last season wasn't a fluke.

Team Weaknesses

Last season, the Bruins did not fair well when they ran up against a team that forechecked aggressively. The Bruins need to do a better job off creating offense from the defensive zone and moving the puck. Derek Morris could help them out in this area. Depth on blue line could be an issue for the Bruins at some point during the season. Other than the top 6 defensemen, the B's don't have a lot of D-men with NHL experience. Also, if Kessel is sent packing, the Bruins will need to find a way to make up for his 36 goals. The penalty kill also took a big hit when PK specialist P.J. Axelsson left for Sweden.

Depth Chart

This is what the lineup could look like this year:

Milan Lucic - Marc Savard - Michael Ryder
Blake Wheeler - David Krejci - Mark Recchi
Marco Sturm - Patrice Bergeron - Chuck Kobasew
Shawn Thornton - Steve Begin - Byron Bitz/Vladimir Sobotka

Zdeno Chara - Derek Morris
Andrew Ference - Dennis Wideman
Matt Hunwick - Mark Stuart

Tim Thomas
Tuukka Rask

Depth/Minor League Forwards: Mikko Lehtonen, Jamie Arniel, Zach Hamill, Drew Larmen, Jeff LoVecchio, Jordan Knackstedt, Brad Marchand, Matt Marquardt, Trent Whitfield, Levi Nelson, Yannick Riendeau

Depth/Minor League Defensemen: Johnny Boychuk, Drew Fata, Andy Wozniewski, Andrew Bodnarchuk, Adam McQuaid, Jeff Penner, Zach McKelvie

Depth/Minor League Goaltenders: Dany Sabourin, Kevin Regan, Adam Courchaine, Matt Dalton

Predictions

This is the part I hate most about writing a season preview, because everyone can look back a few months from now and tell him how much of an idiot I am. I'm going to say that the Bruins will finish 3rd in the East (1st in the Northeast).

I'm looking forward to another great season of Bruins hockey and I hope you will all join me here at Stanley Cup of Chowder all season long.

Poll

So, what do you think? How will the Bruins finish in the East this year?

1st

118 votes

2nd

107 votes

3rd

48 votes

4th

14 votes

5th

3 votes

6th

3 votes

7th

1 votes

8th

2 votes

Miss Playoffs

3 votes

299 votes | Poll has closed

Summer Hockey Fill: Get to know the Minnesota Wild

Jim Schmiedeberg — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 11:00:16 -0000

The hockey managers at SBNation decided to pair up and swap a few questions about their respective teams. In a strange bit of irony, Blueshirt Banter was paired up with Hockey Wilderness, the SBNation blog for the Minnesota Wild. Nathan and his team do a great job over there; make sure you check out their site.

Without further ado, here is what Nathan and I discussed regarding the Wild's upcoming season.

Blueshirt Banter: The Wild made a couple of great hiring's at GM and head coach. After many years of playing Jacques Lemaire's system, do the Wild have the right players for what is expected to be a much more offensive-minded system under new coach Todd Richards?

Hockey Wilderness: The right players? That is the ultimate question, isn't it? The Wild, never known for their offensive prowess, will suddenly find themselves in a new system with players drafted, developed and evaluated on their abilities to play positionally, play a puck possession/counter-attacking offense, take few chances and always know where their defensive responsibility lies. Players like Mikko Koivu, Nick Schultz, Antti Miettinen, Eric Belanger, Kim Johnsson, Cal Clutterbuck and Martin Skoula have found (reasonable in some cases) success in Jacques Lemaire's system, because they weren't expected to be everything to everyone. They were expected to stop the other team from scoring first, make offensive plays second.

Players like Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Marek Zidlicky, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Benoit Pouliot, Colton Gillies and James Sheppard who found themselves in Lemaire's doghouse for taking risks in the offensive zone and abandoning their defensive responsibilities or not back-checking as hard as possible, will likely find the new system refreshing, as they'll probably have much more latitude with the puck.

Guys like Andrew Brunette and Owen Nolan can find a home in any system. Anyone who can create traffic and score down low will find a spot on an NHL roster and succeed. Guys like John Scott, Derek Boogaard and Craig Weller were a staple in the old NHL, but having three on a roster in the new NHL and particularly in a free-flowing system, might find themselves on the outside looking in.

BSB: The injuries to Marian Gaborik are well documented, but after Gaborik left to sign with the Rangers, the Wild signed a player who has also had his fair share of injuries, Martin Havlat. I know many of your readers were not all that sad to see Gaborik leave for NY, but how have they reacted to the Havlat signing?

HW: Havlat is the kind of guy who, like Marian Gaborik, would find a home on any roster because they can make plays and put the puck in the net. The fans have been drawn to Havlat like moths to a flame because of his talent and on-ice determination to score, not to mention his twitter-driven openness. Gaborik had none of that in the eyes of many. I don't speak for many Wild fans when I say that I was absolutely crushed to see Gaby leave Minnesota. I think he would have been a 50+ goal guy on a Todd Richards team. It's as if they remember only the injuries and attitude of Gaborik, but ignore all of Havlat's injury history. We'll see what happens when Gaborik plays 65 games for the Blueshirts and goes for 85 points.

All this being said, the biggest question will be the impact on Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding. Going back to Manny Fernandez and Dwayne Roloson, the Wild have had fantastic goaltending numbers, which many believed to be inflated due to the system. Backstrom signed a massive deal last season, and Harding will likely be tradebait this year to bring in young offensive talent. But if they suddenly find that the kinds of quality chances that the opposition had been denied for so long in Minnesota start showing up and Backstrom nears a 3.00 GAA, you might find people turning on Backs in a hurry or dreaming for the days of "The Trap."

Thanks again to Nathan over at Hockey Wilderness. My answers to his questions about the Rangers are up on their site today.

Tim Thomas is the Rodney Dangerfield of Hockey

Stanley Cup of Chowder — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:28:28 -0000

You would think that winning a pair of NHL awards for goaltending would help Tim Thomas finally get some respect around the league, but much like the late, great Rodney Dangerfield, Thomas "don't get no respect".

Thomas was on 98.5 The Sports Hub this morning talking to the guys on Toucher & Rich. Thomas was talking about how the NHL sent him miniature replicas of the Vezina Trophy and Jennings Trophy earlier this week. The only problem is the NHL sent Thomas a mini Jennings Trophy with Manny Fernandez's name engraved on it . There are no truths to the rumors that the trophy with Thomas' name on it is on sale on eBay by a seller named "TheMann35".

Free agents twisting in the wind

James Mirtle — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:30:17 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

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A high-profile agent told Sun Media yesterday that the current environment for free agents is "all being orchestrated" by the NHL and the plan all along was to make these players sit to see if they’re willing to sign for less money.

"I think what you’ve got here is something that has been in the works for a while," said the agent, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "I don’t think I’ve ever seen a bunch of guys sitting around like this looking for work. This is something teams have been looking at for a while."

— Bruce Garrioch, Sun Media

Greg Wyshynski gave Garrioch a hard time over this story in the Puck Headlines on Wednesday, but I was actually told the exact same thing — nearly word for word — by a lower profile agent last week. At the time, I chalked it up to frustration on the part of one individual, but it turns out this is something being talked about with some regularity behind the scenes.

"NHL teams know that [players will panic] and for the most part agents think NHL headquarters instructed teams to get as many players as possible to free-agent market to get players fighting against each other [for contracts]," the agent told me via email. "Some GMs have said that 'we'll wait until August because we believe we get better deals then.' None of them will say anything about Bettman instructing them since collusion charges could [come into play]."

I trust the source that said that to me, but I'm still uneasy about spreading rumours that widespread collusion is going on. It would be incredible if all 30 teams were able to agree to not stock their teams as well as possible to further some nefarious league objective.

Unbelievable, even.

Still, it's also really shocking how many quality players are available, probably 20 of whom definitely should have found a home by now. Alex Tanguay is one, but how about Sergei Zubov, Robert Lang, Manny Fernandez, Mats Sundin, Petr Sykora, Jason Williams, Taylor Pyatt, Manny Malhotra, Dennis Seidenberg, Dominic Moore, Mike Comrie, Mathieu Schneider, Miroslav Satan, Mike Grier, Mike Peca, Blair Betts, Martin Skoula, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Rob Niedermayer, etc.?

In terms of the argument that there's no cash left to spend, considering the cap is the same size as it was a year ago, that should be pretty easy to determine. Using rough calculations from nhlnumbers.com and capgeek.com, here's what teams spent last season compared to this one and the cash left over:

TEAM	2008-09	2009-10	Diff
ANA »	$57.5	$54.3	-$3.21
ATL »	$43.6	$48.9	$5.33
BOS »	$56.8	$58.0	$1.17
BUF »	$50.6	$52.1	$1.44
CAR »	$51.1	$54.0	$2.96
CGY »	$58.9	$55.3	-$3.53
CHI »	$57.9	$59.6	$1.70
CLB »	$51.2	$47.8	-$3.45
COL »	$53.4	$50.1	-$3.30
DAL »	$57.3	$48.7	-$8.64
DET »	$57.4	$55.1	-$2.32
EDM »	$55.2	$55.7	$0.45
FLA »	$54.7	$50.2	-$4.58
LAK »	$43.9	$50.6	$6.67
MIN »	$54.4	$53.6	-$0.82
MTL »	$57.5	$55.2	-$2.32
NAS »	$45.4	$40.7	-$4.76
NJD »	$55.0	$50.1	-$4.89
NYI »	$46.7	$41.7	-$5.04
NYR »	$56.4	$53.2	-$3.21
OTT »	$54.9	$56.6	$1.68
PHI »	$66.2	$56.0	-$10.18
PHO »	$45.5	$45.0	-$0.54
PIT »	$56.7	$55.2	-$1.51
SAN »	$57.2	$57.3	$0.08
STL »	$54.3	$52.2	-$2.10
TBL »	$51.0	$49.6	-$1.35
TOR »	$50.1	$58.9	$8.78
VAN »	$53.9	$53.3	-$0.54
WAS »	$60.1	$57.4	-$2.71
AVG	$53.8	$52.5	-$1.29

Tossing out the figure from the Flyers that is heavily influenced by all the long-term injury exemptions they had, there is about $30-million "extra" left to get us back to where we were a year ago, with the tiny rise in the cap contributing another $3-million or so.

If you assume that adding an additional player to a roster would mean subtracting a league minimum salary that's being counted here, that leaves roughly $1.5-million per team to add one additional free agent. And that's before we get into signing the remaining RFAs, injuries, callups and the like that are sure to push spending above the $53.8-million average of last season by the time we get to April.

In short? There's really not much cash left at all — and that's a more likely explanation for all of the guys searching for homes than GMs banding together for the greater good. Five to 10 teams could use another piece, but they won't be spending much, and that's bad news if you're either an unsigned player or an agent, whatever the cause may be.

Islanders Crease Party: How the 2009 free agent goalies moved

Dominik — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 11:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Catch this puck, and all you get is a measly 1.4 million dollars.

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Although the Islanders have been fairly quiet this free agency period, I knew it would be an interesting summer because the one position they most needed to fill was the one that was flooded with options: A "1A" goalie to share a heavy chunk of the load with a rehabbing Rick DiPietro (best case), or to be the main guy if DiPietro goes down/doesn't come back in time (worst, and -- as it turned out -- actual case).

The debate was so fun -- and we had a few exchanges here before and after their moves -- precisely because it was so wide open. There were several candidates, but on July 1 all of them had mixed track records and uncertain contract demands and/or playing time expectations. Add to that mix the uncertainty over which ones would be willing to come to last season's 30th-place team, and there was no obvious answer.

Which is why the goalie market, with its ample average supply for limited demand, shook out in some interesting, unpredictable ways, and one of the better options fell into the Islanders' lap.

As fans we can't assign scouts to study goalies -- and we can't count on catching Ty Conklin's body of backup work via Center Ice -- so we were at a bit of a disadvantage when assessing this free agent crop. When we're looking at backups with up-and-down trends like Conklin and Scott Clemmenson, or starter aspirants who are trending "up" like Craig Anderson, or quality guys with injury questions like Antero Niittymaki and Manny Fernandez, or even guys who had a starter's run but fell from grace like Martin Biron, we tend to go off of our own impressions and biases of these goaltenders based on who-knows-what kind of sample size and whether or not they have owned the Islanders (*cough* Biron).

To me, that's where the fun comes in: It's easy when there's a clear, long-running statistical advantage pointing to one guy over another. But when there's not? That's when a good ol' barroom debate gets going.

But one thing fans sometimes overlook when doing free agency post-mortem: It is far easier to read the story of the market on July 30 than it is to predict it on July 1. Time, that tricky damn dimension, is not malleable, and teams have to act fast or be comfortable with the potential consequence of their patience. So we knew with all those goalies out there that someone would end up being available cheap, we just didn't know which one. We knew Martin Biron was seeking a #1 role and #1 salary, but we had no way of knowing he would sacrifice the latter so quickly for a shot at the former (with a last-place team, no less) and a chance to turn himself once again into an enticing trade target. You can bet several other teams who quickly signed alternatives didn't realize this either.

As a case in point, this goalie post was originally planned for June 30, but for some domestic reason i never completed it. So aside from some stats at the bottom, the only original bit from that earlier version I'll keep is this: Things I "knew" about the Islanders approach to the market before July 1:

Unless a major strategic shift or shattering DiPietro news is coming, the Islanders need to thread the market needle of a good goalie on a short-term deal. That may only be possible with one of these status-seeking backups who is shut out in a flooded market, and decides to take "a Fedotenko" one-year deal to prove himself and win a longer payday next summer. So:

1. Don't expect any Islanders calls to Nickolai Khabibulin. Wrong fit, wrong expectations.

2. Ditto Martin Biron, who will price himself out of our hands and expect a more certain #1 role, anyway. He was inconsistent at times, but make no mistake: He's good, and someone should find room for him.

3. Manny Fernandez and Antero Niittymaki are interesting, but it makes no sense to replace your injury concern with another injury concern.

4. With the club hope/expectation that Rick DiPietro won't be a full-season load carrier this year but might be in 2010 or 2011, an older, short-term, near-retirement guy like Dwayne Roloson could be ideal. But after the bargaining posturing ends, he and Edmonton will come to a deal. So the Islanders will probably need to shoot for the moon (and miss) for Anderson or overpay Conklin or Clemmensen. To pick up the slack, maybe Yann Danis comes back beggging for another two-way deal.

Boy, aren't I smart? (Or as Borat would tell it: "Hey, boy, aren't I smart-not.")

Basically, the two "top" targets on the market were probably out of the Islanders price range, so they didn't even bother. Except that one of them got the fattest, longest goalie contract of the summer, while the other was forced to completely revamp his expectations and quote, "think outside of the box" to get the Islanders to bother after all. I hope #3 stands on logic alone. And #4 was part right and part complete mis-read.

I think the Islanders made a solid move by getting Roloson, even at the cost of a two-year deal -- but would they have done so if they knew Biron would be available? Heck, would Edmonton have plunged with Khabibulin if they knew Biron would be available so cheap? (Maybe it's because it happened while I was on vacation, but I still can't believe Biron is an Islander.)

Instead, as it happened, the Oilers declined a second year to Roloson ($2.5M per from the Isles) and went all-in with Khabibulin ($3.75M per). Florida, knowing it would lose Anderson, pounced on Clemmensen ($1.2M per). Colorado jumped early and landed Anderson ($1.75M per). Conklin took a backup/1A position in St. Louis ($1.3M per). Niittymaki ($600k) and his hips flirted with the KHL before landing with the Lightning.

Interesting that Clemmensen and Conklin took positions that give them more time than their previous stops, but still by no means a #1 gig. Wonder if they, too, realized the market was flooded?

The Statistics that Say Whatever You Want them to

What follows at the end of this too-long post (sorry) is a look at the recent stats and conditions around the three most talked about candidates for the Islanders when free agency began. (This is the other part of my original draft that I'm keeping here.)

But before that, check out Copper & Blue''s look at the best NHL goalies since the lockout, based on even-strength save percentage (which eliminates the vagaries of a great or poor penalty kill, albeit must necessarily omit whether a guy can stand on his head on the PK and still play a solid game). They've been goalie crazy lately at Copper & Blue, part of the stats-crunching Oilers blogosphere (maybe that's why UFAs supposedly don't choose Edmonton -- heh, too much numerical accountability?). So check out C&B's other recent posts and their links to other ones, like this one on why the Oilers needn't have been the ones to pay the highest dollar for their keeper.

But anyway, on that list of top goalies since the lockout, you'll find some analysis that is pretty interesting. You'll find numerical case for Manny Fernandez being target #1 this summer (although there will always be those who say he benefits from a Lemaire-like system, and I stand by his injury concern being a deterrant fr the Isles). You'll find numerical case that Anderson/Conklin/Clemmensen have been better than a healthy DiPietro -- albeit in less exposure. And you'll find case that Biron is below them all over the past four seasons -- but only because of one two-team season that kept his numbers from being in the upper tier.

What's more: As always, the unknown factors that cannot be numerically captured, such as whether a guy is in decline (Khabibulin?), has a worsening/poorly healing injury (Fernandez/Niittymaki?), or even has a different goalie coach which might depress his game (hello Hiller and Guiguere). That's the stuff that makes this topic good for debate. That's the stuff that tells us coaching and technique have made many goalies good, while only a few are truly great.

Craig Anderson | Florida | 2008-09 salary: $575,000 | Age: 28

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2002-03 (CHI)	6	270	0	3	2	18	4.00	125	107	.856	0
2003-04 (CHI)	21	1205	6	14	0	57	2.84	602	545	.905	1
2005-06 (CHI)	29	1554	6	12	4	86	3.32	757	671	.886	1
2006-07 (FLA)	5	217	1	1	1	8	2.21	116	108	.931	0
2007-08 (FLA)	17	935	8	6	1	35	2.25	535	500	.935	2
2008-09 (FLA)	31	1636	15	7	5	74	2.71	977	903	.924	3

Anderson, master of the 50-save night, is said to want a chance at a clear #1 gig. The problem is, there really aren't many of those available (and in the "new NHL," there probably shouldn't be). When the music stops playing for Goalie Musical Chairs 2009, will he have a seat? Or should he take the next-best job description, the MacDonald role -- much-used backup for an injury prone goalie?

He's an interesting case: His numbers in Chicago were no good -- on a no-good team -- yet as Panther he put in game-stealing performances, as both the Islanders and the Oilers know too well. He also put up heady AHL numbers during the lockout and during the 2006-07 season after he bounced around on waivers before landing in Florida.

Scott Clemmensen | New Jersey | 2008-09 salary: $500k | Age: 32 by the beginning of next season

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2006-07 (NJ)	6	305	1	1	2	16	3.15	144	128	.889	0
2007-08 (TOR-AHL)	40	2363	23	14	2	96	2.44	1070	974	.910	1
2007-08 (TOR-NHL)	3	154	1	1	0	10	3.90	62	52	.839	0
2008-09 (NJ)	40	2356	25	13	1	94	2.39	1138	1044	.917	2

Clemmensen will turn 32 this summer having played in 68 NHL games, 40 of which came last season in admirable relief of Martin Brodeur. That was a career high, surpassing the whopping 13 he played for the Devils three seasons ago. Before re-signing with the Devils, he had an awful stint with a bad Maple Leafs team (three games) and a pedestrian season with their AHL affiliate. Does that sound like a fit for the Islanders? Can anyone anticipate which version of Clemmensen they'd be buying?

Ty Conklin | Detroit | 2008-09 salary: $750k | Age: 33

	GP	MIN	W	L	T	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
2006-07 (CBS, BUF)	16	718	3	5	2	40	3.34	330	290	.879	0
2007-08 (PIT)	33	1866	18	8	5	78	2.51	1013	935	.923	2
2008-09 (DET)	40	2246	25	11	2	94	2.51	1033	939	.909	6

The NHL's madatory Winter Classic goalie is 33. His best two seasons were his two most recent -- hey, it took Dwayne Roloson a lot of years and several teams to finally get his regular NHL shot, too -- when he played backup for Stanley Cup finalists. Yet this year's Stanley Cup runners-up went with Chris Osgood, he of the epically bad regular season, to backstop them in the playoffs. Maybe that's those haunting six playoff minutes in Edmonton, 2006, talking -- or maybe the Red Wings knew their team system just requires an adequate, steady backup. The Islanders require much more.

A Merciful End to This Tome

In the end, to my surprise, they got much more. So did Edmonton, but at a price (or more precisely, term) that looked high then and even higher now, after Biron's discount deal. Even when the goalie market looks flooded and predictable, you really don't know what you're going to get.

The Best Goalies Since The Lockout

Jonathan Willis — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 23:53:05 -0000

More photos » by Ryan Remiorz - AP

6 months ago: Boston Bruins goaltenders Tim Thomas, right, and Manny Fernandez pose with the William Jennings trophy at the National Hockey League awards in Las Vegas Thursday, June 18, 2009. Thomas and partner Fernandez also shared the Jennings Trophy after helping the Bruins post the lowest goals-against average in the NHL. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Ryan Remiorz)

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As I mentioned yesterday, I've been on a bit of a goaltending kick, and I finally worked up the ambition to do a full study of every NHL goaltender's even-strength save percentage since the lockout. Using even-strength save percentage helps account for shot quality; the penalty-kill fluctuates in ability from team to team and an outfit with a poor one can submarine an otherwise capable goaltender's statistics (one of the reasons I haven't given up on Devan Dubnyk).

I've split the goaltenders based on their average save percentage; the results are interesting, to say the least. I do believe that this list gives us our best idea to date of which goaltenders are the best at their position.

Group I
Name	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	Average
T. Vokoun	.940	.930	.927	.935	.933
D. Hasek	.939	.932	.928	N/A	.933
R. Luongo	.926	.928	.929	.936	.930
T. Thomas	.925	.920	.933	.940	.930
M. Brodeur	.922	.927	.928	.933	.928
J. Giguere	.933	.926	.940	.910	.927
N. Backstrom	N/A	.933	.925	.923	.927
C. Huet	.943	.918	.930	.916	.927
H. Lundqvist	.929	.931	.922	.920	.926
K. Lehtonen	.927	.926	.925	.923	.925
M. Fernandez	.926	.921	N/A	.928	.925

These ten active goaltenders (plus Dominik Hasek) have put up the best even-strength save percentage numbers over the lockout, and there's a lot to see here.

Tomas Vokoun is perhaps the most criminally underrated goaltender in the NHL. He's played for small-market, also-ran franchises (Nashville, Florida) and he's been nothing but successful everywhere he's played. I'd thought about bumping Dominik Hasek off of the list, but I kept him on to show that a) he still had plenty of game left, despite age and injury and b) how closely Tomas Vokoun matched him over the past three years of his career. He's the heir apparent to The Dominator. Just thirty-three, he still has time to get the respect he deserves.

Roberto Luongo and Martin Brodeur are the dominant French-Canadien goaltenders in the league right now, and there isn't much to say about either. Both get the respect they deserve (except for the occasional Damien Cox column that reminds you why he's such a nice fit in Toronto). Brodeur's a great goalie, and while I don't think his peak ability is in the same range as the greatest in the hiostory of the game, there's a lot to be said for just being very, very good all of the time.

Tim Thomas spent three years dominating the minors (between 2003-04 and 2005-06 he posted a .941, .946, and .923 SV% in the AHL or FNL) before he finally got a chance in Boston towards the latter half of 2005-06. In 2006-07 his save percentage dipped to .905, but we can see that this dip came from special teams; his even-strength save percentage stayed just fine. The Bruins seem to have lucked their way into an elite goaltender.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere is an interesting case, and given Hiller's performance he might be worth trying to acquire via trade, despite his hefty price tag. His father died in December; here are his season save percentage splits (note: not just even-strength, but all situations):

October: .903
November: .913
December: .920
January: .858
February: .895
March: .879

Obviously, I can't say with certainty what's going on in Giguere's head, but it seems completely reasonable to think that his father's death derailed his season. Without this season, he's averaged .933 post-lockout. If Anaheim trades him, some team will be getting an elite goalie.

Niklas Backstrom marks a bit of a drop-off from those first five, in my opinion. His track record isn't as long, and while he's been consistently good he's had slight dropoffs over the past two seasons and those are a slight cause for concern. He's a good goaltender but I'm really not sold that he's quite on the same level as the guys listed above.

Henrik Lundqvist and Kari Lehtonen are in the same range as Backstrom, with the caveat that Lehtonen is one of the most injury-prone players in the game and it's fair to wonder if the cumulative effect of those injuries won't drive down his results some time soon. Lundqvist hasn't been quite as good the last few seasons as he was immediately following the lockout. Cristobal Huet finds his average save percentage somewhere in this range too; the difference is that he seems to oscillate between good and great and finds himself somewhere in between. His contract isn't great but Chicago could have done worse.

The final name in this group is one that I personally find shocking. Unrestricted free agent Manny Fernandez was Boston's backup last year and was injured the year before that, so perhaps it isn't surprising that he's been ignored (I certainly didn't seriously consider him for a spot in Edmonton). Does Detroit have a backup yet? Also, they won't do it, but if Edmonton signed this guy (he's going to be cheap - his options range from limited to non-existent) I'd take back everything I said about the Khabibulin contract.

Group II
Name	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	Average
J. Hiller	N/A	N/A	.931	.934	.933
S. Clemmensen	N/A	N/A	N/A	.929	.929
T. Conklin	N/A	N/A	.938	.919	.929
C. Anderson	.901	N/A	.953	.928	.927
P. Rinne	N/A	N/A	N/A	.926	.926
J. Quick	N/A	N/A	N/A	.926	.926
S. Mason	N/A	N/A	N/A	.925	.925
B. Boucher	N/A	N/A	N/A	.925	.925

Unlike the guys in Group I, the players in Group II don't have much of a track record of playing more than 20 games; generally two seasons or less. They have put up good save percentage numbers though.

Jonas Hiller looks set to make Jean-Sebastien Giguere expendable in Anaheim. He had a nice career in Switzerland before coming over to North America and isn't a bad bet either. He's a lot cheaper than Giguere, but he's also a pending unrestricted free agent, so I wonder if Anaheim wouldn't be better off trading him.

I've made my skepticism about Scott Clemmensen known before. He's a career journeyman who never really did much even in the AHL, and I really suspect this past season was a one-off. I'm glad the Oilers elected not to pursue him this summer, although he's not an awful gamble as a backup. Brian Boucher is a similar player, albeit with a better long-term track record and a slightly poorer season last year.

There was a time when Ty Conklin was a rising prospect with the Oilers; in the final year before the lockout he handily outplayed Tommy Salo. He didn't do much during the lockout, got hurt early in camp, and spent the following season in the minors before earning another NHL shot with Pittsburgh. He was great in 2007-08, and decent last year and should be a good fit as a 1B goalie in St. Louis.

Craig Anderson will start for the Avalanche next season. It's a no-risk move for Colorado; they may get a starter on the cheap or he may help them acquire Taylor Hall. He's been very good in the AHL, so the only mark against him is that year in Chicago (2005-06). All of Chicago's goalies stunk that year, though; I have trouble believeing that the defense wasn't to blame.

I don't expect Pekka Rinne to repeat his excellent rookie season; his AHL numbers are middling and there simply isn't the kind of track record there to think he had even this year in him. Maybe it was a breakout year, but I'm not convinced.

I have to admit that Jonathan Quick is a very, very puzzling player by the numbers. He had a good run over 54 college games, followed by 38 mostly bad ECHL games, 19 good AHL games, and an NHL cup of coffee - the last three all happening last year. Last season, he played well. I like him, but I wouldn't make it an all-or-nothing bet like Los Angeles has done; a more certain backup than Ersberg would be a good thing here I think.

Finally, Steve Mason came out of nowhere last season and was superb; it's a rare goaltender who can turn even a strong junior record into a great NHL debut in his first year as a professional. It's always risky to gamble a team's spot on one season, but Columbus hasn't done that, wisely signing a very capable backup as an insurance policy.

Group III
Name	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	Average
M. Kiprusoff	.941	.933	.919	.907	.925
M-A. Fleury	.914	.916	.940	.922	.923
R. Miller	.919	.928	.915	.927	.922
R. DiPietro	.918	.932	.915	N/A	.922
I. Bryzgalov	.919	.907	.934	.918	.920
C. Mason	.918	.925	.908	.927	.920

This group has the rest of the above-average starters in the NHL; just a hair below Group I.

Miikka Kiprusoff wasn't an arbitrary choice for the cut-off point. His post-lockout seasons were tremendous; he was one of if not the best goaltender in the league between 2005-07 before taking a bit of a step back in 2007-08. This past year, he collapsed and Mike Keenan (among others) paid the price for it. I understand that Darryl Sutter isn't likely to call out his long-term investment publicly, but there's no doubt where the trouble was in Calgary last season, and I have to think he knows it. The question is whether Kiprusoff can bounce back; I wonder if a competent backup and some healthy competition might help. I may just jump off a bridge if Calgary signs Fernandez.

Marc-Andre Fleury has as good a chance as anyone on this list of climbing to the next level over the coming seasons. He only played 35 games in 2007-08, so it' fair to ask if that jump to .940 is an anomaly or a sign of things to come, but his past season was quite good and he's got a lot of experience for such a young goaltender.

Ryan Miller is a guy who most closely resembles Cristobal Huet from the top list; his highs haven't been quite as high though. I like him as a starter, but for a team like Buffalo to shell out money and term may not make a ton of sense cap-wise.

Rick DiPietro was clearly a downgrade from Roberto Luongo (thanks for that, Mike Milbury) and his precarious health alone makes the Islanders' long-term investment in him a mistake. That said, when healthy he's in the top-half of NHL goaltenders.

Ilya Bryzgalov and Chris Mason don't generally get much credit as top-flight goalies. Phoenix paid up to keep Bryzgalov after his breakthrough season but I think he's going to be an averagish starter for most of that contract. Mason got his money from Nashville and has been a nice pickup for the Blues; as long as he doesn't go into the tank again he could be up in Ryan Miller territory.

Group IV
Name	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	Average
C. Price	N/A	N/A	.929	.920	.925
J. Harding	N/A	N/A	.917	.931	.923
D. Ellis	N/A	N/A	.927	.919	.923
Y. Danis	N/A	N/A	N/A	.923	.923
J. Halak	N/A	N/A	N/A	.922	.922
B. Elliott	N/A	N/A	N/A	.920	.920

The Group IV guys are like the Group II guys above: youngish goaltenders who have had good results but don't have a long track record. Some of these guys will have nice careers, and others will drop off; the only question is which ones.

Carey Price headlines the group, although I do think he's going to climb into Group I or at least Group III in the coming years. His play this past season wasn't nearly as bad as a quick glance at his overall save percentage would seem to indicate; his save percentage while short-handed dropped from .885 to .843 and that worked out to an 11-goal shift. He's going to be just fine, although he's cursed to live in a city where every peak and valley will be scrutinized and I hope he has the mental toughness to handle it.

Josh Harding is in all likelihood going to be dealt somewhere by Minnesota; he's a fine emerging goaltender with an ice minor-league track record but he's not exactly a sure thing yet. For a team with a capable backup he might be a very nice gamble - particularly if he can be signed to a relatively cheap deal. I also really like Jaroslav Halak and he, like Harding, has a good track record going into the NHL and should be a good gamble for someone.

Dan Ellis suffered the fate of so many Nashville goaltenders this past season: he was usurped by his backup. It happened to Mike Dunham, it happened to Tomas Vokoun, and Ellis himself did it to Chris Mason; it seems fair to say that Nashville has a better idea than most teams about goalies. Ellis is still a very good goaltender and another year or two could solidify his reputation as an above-average starter.

Yann Danis is a guy to bet against. New Jersey signed him cheaply and so we'll probably never get a chance to see if he's for real or not, but his minor-league track record suggests that he isn't. He's one of the older goalies in this category but is a good example of how a minor-league guy can step up and surprise.

Brian Elliott has had a very nice run the last few years; his college numbers and AHL numbers are very good and would seem to indicate that his performance this past season isn't an aberration. Ottawa brought in Pascal Leclaire as insurance but I would be very surprised if Elliott doesn't win out over the next few seasons (particularly given Leclaire's injury woes).

Group V: Everybody Else
Name	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	Average
M. Garon	.916	.923	.916	.918	.918
M. Tellqvist	.920	.903	.924	.926	.918
R. Emery	.916	.930	.908	N/A	.918
M. Smith	N/A	.922	.901	.931	.918
M. Gerber	.916	.928	.918	.908	.918
E. Nabokov	.906	.924	.918	.920	.917
M. Turco	.918	.923	.918	.908	.917
M. Biron	.916	.906	.927	.918	.917
P. Leclaire	.919	.900	.930	N/A	.916
N. Khabibulin	.899	.913	.916	.933	.915
M. Legace	.926	.918	.923	.893	.915
D. Roloson	.911	.910	.911	.926	.915
J. Labarbera	.915	N/A	.916	.912	.914
A. Auld	.917	.889	.928	.921	.914
P. Budaj	.913	.914	.919	.908	.914
C. Osgood	.911	.921	.919	.902	.913
V. Toskala	.916	.913	.919	.903	.913
J. Hedberg	N/A	.921	.908	.908	.912
A. Niittymaki	.910	.893	.917	.927	.912
E. Ersberg	N/A	N/A	N/A	.910	.910
C. Ward	.897	.899	.917	.926	.910
K. Ramo	N/A	N/A	.910	.906	.908
J. Theodore	.893	.906	.917	.913	.907
J. MacDonald	N/A	N/A	N/A	.907	.907
A. Raycroft	.898	.914	.883	.905	.900
P. Lalime	.885	N/A	.912	.897	.898

...and this is the rest of the league's most-used goaltenders. There's a variety of guys in here, ranging from career 1B goalies, good starters who have recently performed at a high level, good starters who have had a bad season (or two), kids, and guys who shouldn't be in the big league at all.

Mathieu Garon, a guy who every so often threatens to take over a starting role somewhere, sits at the top of this list. His supposedly dreadful season this year doesn't show up on this chart - and there's a good explanation for that. His short-handed save percentage went from insanely, Vezina-trophy calibre good (.908) to dreadful (.821). I've harped on the Oilers' penalty-kill collapsing this past season due to personnel changes (Reasoner, Stoll, Greene) and while I think that's part of the answer the truth is that the biggest reason for the shift lies right here, with the goalie.

Mikael Tellqvist would rank quite high aside from a dreadful 2006-07; it's really too bad he's had so much difficulty finding an NHL job. He's certainly a better bet than a guy like Curtis McElhinney or Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers. Martin Gerber is KHL bound after a lousy season, but like Tellqvist he's definitely better than some current backups.

Ray Emery has been brought back to North America to audition for the Flyers' starting job; aside from the fact that he was the second-best goalie on his KHL team (behind Vitaly Kolesnik, look it up) this past season I see no reason to think that it won't turn out OK. His personality will certainly be a fit and he should be good enough that he won't get pilloried in the press. Still, he probably wasn't the best possible choice.

Mike Smith had an incredible year last season on a wretched Tampa Bay Lightning team; honestly he deserved Vezina consideration, although his name never really came up. There are, however, two causes for concern: his wretched 2007-08 performance and the fact that he's recovering from post-concussion syndrome. His career is going to be an interesting one to watch.

There are a set of three guys who really belong higher on the list. Evgeni Nabokov is not an elite goaltender, but he is above average and only his 2005-06 numbers keep him from posting a comparable save percentage to those guys. He also deserves credit for posting those numbers as a starter (i.e. over more games). Marty Turco is a similar sort, except that his miserable season was this past year. I don't see any reason to think that he can't bouce back to provide average to above-average goaltending for the Stars. Lastly, Martin Biron has had three average or better seasons along with one bad one (the bad year coming in a season where he was traded from Buffalo to Philadelphia) and he was a very nice signing by the Islanders.

Pascal Leclaire is not, despite Pierre McGuire's statement to the contrary, "the best goaltender Ottawa has ever had". He may not even be the best goaltender on the team. He had one good season, one very good season, one lousy season, and a miserable, injury-filled year in 2008-09. He's struggled with chronic ailments and while his erratic performance may be attributable to those injuries there's no reason to believe he'll ever be healthy enough to be a reliable starter.

I've said a ton in the past few weeks about Nikolai Khabibulin. On the positive side, at age 36 he's coming off of a remarkable bounce-back season that saw him post numbers that rank him among the league's top goaltenders. The flip side of that is that for two seasons prior he was decidedly average - which I would guess is his true range from here on out. Surprisingly he played in the RSL during the lockout; I say surprisingly because 2005-06 was a miserable season for him.

The much-maligned Manny Legace had a season to forget last year; the question now is whether the wheels have fallen off entirely or if this was a one-off. Given the league goaltending situation (too many goalies, not enough spots) I doubt we'll get a chance to find out and his NHL career may be over.

We find Dwayne Roloson near the bottom of this list, and I have to confess that I've been biased in his favour by sentiment, a good performance in 2008-09, and his combative attitude. Despite his performance this past season, for the years previous he was sub-average and the Oilers made the right decision to move on.

Alex Auld probably deserves to be a bit higher here; one bad season has torpedoed his average and he's been very decent in the other three years. I've always liked the guy, and Dallas did an ice job to get him without giving up much (6th round pick) and provide Marty Turco with some insurance and maybe even a little competition for the starting job. Tobias Stephen simply wasn't enough of an option last year.

Jason LaBarbera and Peter Budaj have similar track records, except that nobody was silly enough to believe that LaBarbera could be a starter without giving him a significant safety net. These guys are cheap and easy to replace, and Budaj's been fortunate that the Avalanche are so committed to him.

Chris Osgood and Vesa Toskala are a little better than okay during good seasons and worse than that otherwise. Both are coming off bad seasons, although Osgood turned in a strong playoff that had him in the running for the Conn Smythe. John Ferguson Jr. had something of a reverse-Midas touch when it came to goalies; for that reason alone I'm sure Tuukka Rask is going to have an NHL career.

Johan Hedberg is reason #895 why Don Waddell should not be allowed to run an NHL franchise.

Antero Niittymaki was undoubtedly frustrating for Flyers fans but he's a nice bet by the Tampa Bay Lightning. He's coming off a fine season and his average has been torpedoed by one bad year and opne mediocre year. This is exactly the kind of cheap backup that smart G.M.'s take chances on. Erik Ersberg, not so much; his AHL and SEL record isn't terribly strong and in his first extended NHL action he was just OK. Lots of goalies can be just OK - it's better to bet on one capable of doing more than that.

Cam Ward parlayed a nice Stanley Cup run in 2005-06 into a starting job that he wasn't yet ready for. He came into his own this past season and is on a steady upward curve that should land him somewhere in the top-15 NHL goaltenders.

Karri Ramo is a guy who I would put pretty good money against ever developing into a legitimate starting goaltender. He had one nice season in Finland, and outside of that his numbers at every level have been ugly. I'm not a big fan of sinking development time and money into goalies, and this is a worse example of it than most.

Jose Theodore won the Hart and Vezina trophies in 2001-02, but he's been lousy every season since the lockout. Washington shouldn't have signed him; there are plenty of mediocre goalies who are capable of being better than average available for far less money. It takes years to burn a reputation like Theodore's; he's gotten most of the way to doing it now.

Joey MacDonald, Andrew Raycroft and Patrick Lalime are minor league goalies. Raycroft in particular (ranked as the 17th best goalie in the NHL at one point during this stretch by THN) has never done anything outside of his rookie year and has miraculously gotten chance after chance. MacDonald has always been an AHL goalie, but I think Garth Snow knw from Day 1 that he wanted John Tavares and running MacDonald out as a starter was the best way to do that. Lalime used to be more but at this point in his career he should be considering what he'll do after hockey.

The Goalie Market & Excuses

Derek Zona — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 01:29:22 -0000

More photos » by Steve Mitchell - AP

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A fella named Triumph commented at Tyler's blog:

Don’t get me wrong, I think the Khabibulin deal stinks, but remember that the Biron deal was made because of the Khabibulin deal - Biron found himself totally out of a job, and with absolutely no suitors, it’s tough to drum up a big contract. Since the Islanders aren’t a playoff team, they can sit on the sidelines for a Biron to come along - the Oilers, ostensibly competing for the playoffs, do not have that luxury.

The new excuse for the Khabibulin contract defense team is that the Oilers had no idea that Biron would go so cheaply. That it was impossible to guess what would happen with these goaltenders and their contracts. The above quote is but one example that's being put forth in the 'Sphere, on the boards, in the mainstream media.

Put simply, this is nonsense.

Tyler saw this coming a full year away.

If Philadelphia goes ahead and signs Emery, by my count that leaves two teams without a clear starting goaltender: Edmonton and Colorado. Otherwise, it’s backup jobs available, unless some team is willing to eat a pile of money. There are a ton of competent or better goalies available: Craig Anderson, Nikolai Khabibulin, Dwayne Roloson, Martin Biron, Manny Fernandez and Manny Legace probably top the list. You can probably toss Scott Clemmensen onto the list, although I don’t find him that interesting. All of those guys presumably want to be starters.

I saw this coming at the beginning of June and I'm a bit more ostentatious than Tyler, so I made some predictions and even threw some numbers out there.

Secondly, Tambellini should not dole out multi-year deals unless he can get an exceptional price. Thirdly, Tambellini should not have to spend more than Roloson's $3,500,000 salary in finding two goaltenders. Remember, the Ivey stare, Steve. Don't blink, don't change your expression. In short, Tambellini should be able to spend less in goal than the Oilers have spent at any point since the lockout, and the Oilers should start the season with their strongest situation in net in this decade.

Obviously no one could foresee this. Especially a group of highly-compensated men in charge of a multi-million dollar organization.

Who's left: 38 UFAs without a home

James Mirtle — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 03:10:29 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Bruins winger P.J. Axelsson slams Hurricanes defenceman Dennis Seidenberg against the boards during Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series.

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When I put together my list of the top 100 unrestricted free agents three weeks ago, I figured that those in the top half of the board would be long gone by now. As it turns out, 14 still need a home, and 38 of the 100 have yet to sign an NHL contract.

Here's a look at the top remaining free agents*:

				2008-09
	PLAYER	Pos	Age	TM	Cap hit
10	TANGUAY, ALEX	LW	29.6	MTL	5.250
13	ZUBOV, SERGEI	D	38.9	DAL	5.350
18	BIRON, MARTIN	G	31.9	PHI	3.500
21	LANG, ROBERT	C	38.5	MTL	4.000
29	FERNANDEZ, MANNY	G	34.8	BOS	4.333
32	SUNDIN, MATS	C	38.4	VAN	8.211
33	SYKORA, PETR	RW	32.6	PIT	2.500
35	AXELSSON, P.J.	LW	34.3	BOS	1.850
37	MORRIS, DEREK	D	30.8	NYR	3.917
42	WILLIAMS, JASON	C	28.9	CBJ	2.200
43	PYATT, TAYLOR	LW	27.9	VAN	1.575
46	MALHOTRA, MANNY	C	29.1	CBJ	1.200
47	SHANAHAN, BRENDAN	LW	40.4	N.J	0.800
48	SEIDENBERG, DENNIS	D	27.9	CAR	1.200
53	MOORE, DOMINIC	C	28.9	BUF	0.900
55	COMRIE, MIKE	C	28.8	OTT	4.000
62	GERBER, MARTIN	G	34.8	TOR	3.700
63	SCHNEIDER, MATHIEU	D	40.0	MTL	5.625
64	CULLIMORE, JASSEN	D	36.6	FLA	0.830
66	HILBERT, ANDY	C	28.4	NYI	0.675
68	SATAN, MIROSLAV	RW	34.7	PIT	3.500
69	GRIER, MICHAEL	RW	34.5	S.J	1.775
70	SILLINGER, MICHAEL	C	38.0	NYI	2.200
71	PECA, MICHAEL	C	35.3	CBJ	1.315
72	BETTS, BLAIR	C	29.4	NYR	0.615
75	SKOULA, MARTIN	D	29.7	MIN	1.800
78	BERGERON, M-A	D	28.7	MIN	1.254
80	BOUILLON, FRANCIS	D	33.7	MTL	1.875
81	HEDICAN, BRET	D	38.9	ANA	0.871
82	NIEDERMAYER, ROB	C	34.5	ANA	2.000
83	PELTONEN, VILLE	LW	36.1	FLA	1.100
86	PERRIN, ERIC	C	33.7	ATL	0.750
87	AFINOGENOV, MAXIM	RW	29.8	BUF	3.333
88	BERTUZZI, TODD	RW	34.4	CGY	1.950
90	BOUCHER, PHILIPPE	D	36.3	PIT	2.400
93	BACKMAN, CHRISTIAN	D	29.2	CBJ	2.300
95	BONK, RADEK	C	33.5	NSH	1.475
100	BAYDA, RYAN	LW	28.6	CAR	0.475

* Note: I believe the only fellow I've left off the list is Steve Eminger, but there may have been one or two more guys who slipped through the cracks who should be here. Also worth noting is that there have been reports Peltonen will play in Switzerland next year. (Artyukhin will miss him.)

What's interesting is looking at the salaries some of these fellows had last season, an indication of their value previously which now appears to have fallen off. The majority of the players on this list will take a paycut of some kind to stay in the NHL, and some will likely still be on the sidelines come training camp.

As for scuttlebutt on some of these players: Axelsson is rumoured to have a new home in the near future, as is Tanguay. Zubov will have plenty of suitors provided he's healthy (something that is holding the Stars up from seriously considering him) while Gerber's reportedly had strong interest from the KHL.

Sillinger, meanwhile, may retire after missing so much time due to injuries the past two seasons. Also potentially moving on to celebrity poker and/or golf games are Sundin, Hedican and Boucher, while Shanahan apparently has some interest (at a low price) with multiple teams.

Two of the top remaining free agents — Biron and Fernandez — are netminders in a marketplace where there's really not a lot of dough set aside for their services. I've seen some talk that a team like L.A. may make a move to bring in a veteran to tandem with Jon Quick, but Biron could ultimately end up waiting for an early season injury before he finds a home. (And with goalies, there always is one.)

I think there are going to be some real bargains in there, as these players and their agents have to be getting a little anxious by now. Most will probably get one-year deals for less than the league average.

Anyone stand out there for you? Who would you like to see your team sign in the next couple weeks?

SB Nation - Manny Fernandez

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2009-10 NHL Season Preview: Boston Bruins

Where will the Bruins finish in the Eastern Conference this season?

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2009-10 Boston Bruins Season Preview

So, what do you think? How will the Bruins finish in the East this year?

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Miss Playoffs

Summer Hockey Fill: Get to know the Minnesota Wild

Tim Thomas is the Rodney Dangerfield of Hockey

Free agents twisting in the wind

Islanders Crease Party: How the 2009 free agent goalies moved

The Statistics that Say Whatever You Want them to

A Merciful End to This Tome

The Best Goalies Since The Lockout

Group I

Group II

Group III

Group IV

Group V: Everybody Else

The Goalie Market & Excuses

Who's left: 38 UFAs without a home