SB Nation - Nikolai Khabibulin

Khabibulin Done?

Derek Zona — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 01:48:42 -0000

Message boards and blogs devoted to the Edmonton Oilers are ablaze with talk that Nikolai Khabibulin could be done for the year as he has surgery to repair a herniated disc. Having suffered through the same injury, if he's had to go the surgical route, it's severe. At this point, a surgery like this brings into question Khabibulin's ability to continue his career in the NHL. If that's the case, Steve Tambellini has caught an amazing break in the world of cap management. Of course, the injury leaves him with a significant hole in the lineup as Khabibulin was brought in specifically to be a big-game goaltender and a playoff workhorse. For a team like the Oilers, battling along in 10th place, Tambellini has two options:

a. Find an affordable goaltending option to split time with Jeff Deslauriers and hope that superior defense saves the season.

b. Let Jeff Deslauriers and Devan Dubnyk split the work for the rest of the season and see if either one is a long-term solution.

Given the continuing state of the goaltending market, Tambellini shouldn't have to do anything major to land a serviceable goalie to help out the rest of the way. This is exactly why I think that Tambellini and his shadow management group will choose:

c. Go after a big name goalie and try to hit a home run.

Enter Tomas Vokoun. This weekend, Chris Botta reported that Randy Sexton is actively shopping Vokoun to anyone that will have him in what can only be a salary dump. He also falls into the light-thinking trap of reporting that Vokoun "...has the 2010-11 season left on his contract at a hefty $6.3 million..." even though his cap hit is $5.7 million. While the $6.3 million may matter to a somewhat cash-strapped team like Florida, the cap hit matters most to teams that fly close to the cap ceiling. Teams such as...the Edmonton Oilers.

If Khabibulin down and out for good, Edmonton will get cap relief to the tune of $3.75 million per season. The one way out of the ridiculous Over-35 Contract that the Oilers gave Khabibulin is contained in Article 50, Section 50.5 (PDF Warning) in the Collective Bargaining Agreement - AKA the Mike Rathje Section.

The Oilers have an over-abundance of small, skilled forwards that may be attractive to a Southeast team, especially a kid like Andrew Cogliano. Cogliano's speed has been dazzling scouts, personnel people, coaches and fans, but his game hasn't quite come together. He would be a perfect candidate to move to Florida as the central piece of a Vokoun deal. Edmonton would need to clear an additional $2 million in cap space to get Vokoun under the cap, space that can be provided by Ethan Moreau.

Would a trade of Ethan Moreau and Andrew Cogliano for Tomas Vokoun be so far-fetched? In this case, I don't think so. Tambellini gets to blame the "unforeseen injury" to Khabibulin and gets to move Cogliano without criticism from most quarters. Florida gets to clear a huge salary from the books and gets a promising young center in Cogliano and only has one season of Ethan Moreau at $2 million.

As far as the optics go, Vokoun looks like a coup for the Oilers management team, as he's a world-class goaltender (a real one, not like the crumbling wall was purported to be) on a team that is "pushing hard for a playoff spot". Vokoun also falls into the whale category that the crew of the Pequod has been hunting for the last two-and-a-half years.

I know, I know - Vokoun seems like an unbelievable option. Martin Biron, Jaroslav Halak, Ty Conklin - they all make much more sense. Ask yourself this - over the last two years, what has the Oilers management team been, if not unbelievable?

Sometimes, the Oilers Aren't Killing Me

Benjamin Massey — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

3 days ago: Edmonton Oilers goalie Jeff Deslauriers makes a save in the third period of an NHL hockey game against the St. Louis Blues, Friday, Dec. 11, 2009, in St. Louis. The Oilers overcame a 3-0 deficit to win 5-3. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Over my time at the Copper & Blue, I've developed a reputation as a bit of a ranting, negative lunatic. There's a very good reason I've acquired this reputation: it's accurate. That's pretty much exactly what I am. When the Oilers lose, I'll tear my face off with grief and when they win I'll settle for pulling my nose hairs out bemoaning how close they were to losing.

It's a stressful sort of fandom I live. One filled with black clouds of grim angst occasionally broken up by rays of bright sunshine which serve only to make the darkness seem all the more oppressive.

But in truth, I am not all despair all the time. Sometimes... just sometimes... the Oilers manage to surprise me in an astonishing little way. And so, for your viewing enjoyment and to give myself a break from a constant stream of negativity, gloom, and angst, I present to you six lovely little surprises for the holiday season that the Edmonton Oilers have provided me so far this year.

1) The goaltending isn't nearly as bad as I'd feared. Early in the season, I gave Nikolai Khabibulin the nickname "Maginot Line" because he was big, expensive, immobile, outdated, and largely useless. Jeff Deslauriers I didn't give a nickname but, then, I didn't have to because he was Jeff Deslauriers so obviously he was going to be terrible. It would have been like kicking a puppy into traffic to pick on him any more.

Well, neither Deslauriers nor Khabibulin have been terrific by any means, but they haven't been bad. Nikolai Khabibulin's contract was terrible but, a few foibles aside, his play wasn't. With a .909 save percentage and an almost tolerable 3.03 goals-against average while playing through the worst of Edmonton's defensive injuries, Khabibulin wasn't shooting the lights out but was pretty much middle of the pack for NHL starters. He's being paid like an All-Star, but I'm trying to look at his play, not his contract.

Of course, then he strained his back reaching too far for the remote or something and now we're putting up with Jeff Deslauriers. Who's... actually been a bit better than Khabibulin. A .916 save percentage, a 2.61 goals-against average, and his first career NHL shutout. The sample size is small, but Deslauriers is fifteenth in the NHL among goaltenders who've played at least ten games in save percentage. He's tied with Henrik Lundqvist, for God's sake. He's ahead of Roberto Luongo! And he's playing for the Edmonton Oilers!

That's not shabby. That's not shabby at all.

2) Ladislav Smid is quietly becoming brilliant. Obviously, playing with Lubomir Visnovsky helps (more on him later). But the book on Ladislav Smid used to be that he's was a crappy version of Tommy Albelin. Then, starting last season, we started to see more of a physical edge in his game. He got into guys' faces, he didn't take no guff, he started to "clear his neighbourhood" as the astronomers say. Then this year, his strides have been palpable. He's still not a Derian Hatcher sort, but he's getting there.

It is an axiom, at least to me, that defensive defensemen take forever to develop. Defending is hard, guys. You can't just work on a big slapshot or some fancy stickhandling moves and still put up results while learning the game. Until you figure out exactly how things work in the show you are going to get run over. For a long time, Smid was getting killed, but more and more he's figuring it out. We saw the same thing with former Oiler Matt Greene, only to trade him just as the light was starting to go on. Every player in that mold goes through the same thing and the trick is figuring out which kids will eventually get it. Smid is starting to get it.

3) Who the hell are our forwards, and why are they doing so okay? Ryan O'Marra, Colin McDonald, Ryan Potulny, Gilbert Brule, Liam Reddox, Ryan Stone oh god I could keep going. No, it's not the second and third lines of the Springfield Falcons, it's a list of guys we've called up, plugged into the starting lineup, and told "surprise! you're NHL players!"

Well, the results could have been a lot worse, couldn't they?

Colin McDonald, that big palooka, scored a goal. Ryan O'Marra, who I ragged on so much he was on the verge of becoming a running joke, looked better in the NHL than he ever has in the AHL. Liam Reddox slumped towards the end but looked so promising at the beginning of his callup I pronounced him the new Fernando Pisani. Gilbert Brule is this team's fourth-leading scorer (seriously), and no matter what Derek says that's pretty damned impressive in any context. He has nine goals and twelve assists for twenty-one points in twenty-nine games. His previous career highs were nine goals and ten assists for nineteen points in seventy-eight games with Columbus in 2006-07.

Ryan Stone, meanwhile, has been getting positive notices for everything but his scoring. He's banged, crashed, made life miserable for opposing players, looked after himself in his own zone, and chipped in five assists in thirteen games. His return from injury immediately made our fourth line into a credible opponent, and that's been vital to the Oilers' recent success.

Not one of these guys were being counted on to be any sort of positive at the beginning of the year, and yet they've all helped the team, some in big ways, others in small ones.

4) There's a lot of try in this team. Much as I hate to resort to crappy colour-man clichés, it's true. Remember the doldrums of the last couple of seasons where the Oilers were just going through the motions? Crappy players playing a crappy game and afterwards Craig MacTavish would say things at the press conference like "I don't know what else I can say to these guys. They need to figure things out for themselves."?

Yeah, that's not happening anymore. We've had a couple tremendous comebacks already this season, and we've had a couple pretty ugly losses where the team kept fighting until the conclusion anyway. Losing is a lot more bearable when you can see the team cares about it.

5) How incredible is Lubomir Visnovsky? Really damned incredible, that's how incredible. He's been healthy, for the most part, which was a pleasant treat in of itself. But it gets better. His seven goals is tied for third on the team, behind only Dustin Penner and Gilbert Brule. His twenty-three points is second, although he's only one up on Ales Hemsky, the human incarnation of how much the hockey gods hate us. He's +12, which on a team this crappy is hard to do. Among Oilers to play at least twenty games, he leads in time on ice per game. His .767 points per game pace is right back at the élite level he showed from 2005 to 2007 in Los Angeles.

He's sixth in the league in defensive scoring and he's delivering surprisingly excellent defensive results. He's sixth in the league in plus/minus among defensemen, which sounds like I'm making it up. There's nothing not to love about Lubomir Visnovsky's season so far. Some say that he needs to shoot more. Maybe, but I'm reluctant to mess with an All-Star season on a non-playoff team.

6) Special teams haven't been useless. Considering the dearth of offensive creativity and the mediocre lot of defensive forwards we've dealt ourselves, you'd expect both the powerplay and the penalty kill to be completely dire. And certainly the penalty kill has been pretty bad, if not awful, with a 78.8% kill rate plunking them 23rd on the table. To tell you the truth, I'd have put us a lot worse than 23rd at the beginning of the year and that was without considering all the injuries we've picked up, so even that ugly number carries a glittering gem of consolation. If you can throw out guys like Steve Staios, Zack Stortini, and Jason Strudwick on an NHL penalty kill and come up 23rd, things aren't so bad.

The powerplay, on the other hand! Just as devoid of personnel, just as wracked by injury, so ill-conceived that people were trying to talk themselves into Mike Comrie as a legitimate powerplay specialist, and yet they're hitting at a 19.5% rate! That's fourteenth in the league! That's average! I am delighted with average. Whenever any aspect of the Oilers is average, considering what a below-average team they are, that's something. Particularly when the powerplay has been such a history struggle for the Oilers over the last several seasons. It's nice to see results improving even when the team is not.

The Next General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers

Derek Zona — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:58:31 -0000

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I am Daryl Katz. I'm a whale hunter. Since purchasing the Oilers, my reign has been characterized by hunting down the biggest of the big whales in the NHL. Marian Hossa, Jaromir Jagr, Dany Heatley, Nikolai Khabibulin - all names that light up the marquee, all names that sparkled in my eye. If my OIlers should miss the playoffs again this year, I'll be put in a very precarious position - the fanbase will start to turn on my President and General Manager, and eventually, they'll turn on me. I will have nothing to offer them but the promise of hope, but Kevin Lowe and Steve Tambellini won't be able to deliver for me. I'll need to find someone else to run this team. I don't try to hire anyone without first hiring the most famous name I can find. I'll need a whale of enormous proportions. Someone that the fanbase would consider a hero, a hockey hero. Someone that can once again deliver the promise of hope to the people of Alberta. A whale that can bring the hope of the past glories back to the Oilers. Someone that can guarantee fan interest won't soon decline.

I'm Mark Messier. In the sports world, I'm a whale. In the hockey world, I'm one of the biggest whales, especially since my good friend Wayne went off track in Phoenix. I'm Edmonton-bred, born and raised, and I am Alberta's greatest hockey hero. I won six stanley cups in my time in the NHL and became known as the game's greatest captain. I once called my shot that I would deliver a Stanley Cup and I delivered a Stanley Cup. When I was playing, I was bold and brash and had the game to back it up. I was the biggest thing in hockey on the biggest stage in the world. I'm beloved everywhere in North America, except Vancouver and Calgary. I was a take-no-prisoners masher and I will be again.

My relationship with the Oilers has been good and the fans continue to love me. I'd love to go back there, but given that my old buddy Kevin Lowe is already in charge of the entire franchise, I know that there's not enough room in Rexall Place for the both of us. The only way that I'll ever make it back to Edmonton is if the Oilers were to let Kevin go, but he's got a job for life.

After basking in the glow of my great career that spanned three decades and cup wins in both Edmonton and New York, this year I decided that I wanted to enter hockey management. I needed someone to give me an in so that I could join the closed ranks of NHL management, so I turned to an old friend, Glen Sather. Glen gave me a job as a special assistant to the general manager. I expect that Glen will show me the ropes in the NHL, give me the ins and outs of managing the business, hook me up with the secrets that he uses to run the Rangers and set me on my way. I expect that one year in this role will give me the management resume I need to land a General Manager's job in the NHL..

To make sure that everyone is aware I'm available, I decided to take the job as General Manager of Team Canada's 2010 World Championship team. Raising my profile with this job, combined with my job with the Rangers and my history of winning all but guarantees a job offer in the summer of 2010 I'll show that I'm able to work with talent and evaluate players for the team and I'll do some elbow-rubbing with those involved with Hockey Canada. My name will light up news ledes and shine brightly on the marquee once again. I only hope that it will shine brightly enough to attract the attention of a team or two. I only need one interview to impress an owner, especially an owner that will be impressed by my celebrity. Someone that would love to hire a whale.

Oilers Roundtable Discussion, 1/3 of the way through the season - Part II

Derek Zona — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Christopher J. Morris - AP

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It's been all about disappointments and Dustin Penner thus far for the Oilers. Who's has suffered the biggest letdown, and besides Big Pun, who has surprised the group?

Our lineup includes: the prolix Shepso, combining modern western philosophy and hockey at Bringing Back The Glory; Chappy, owner of This is Not a Love Song; HBomb, everyone's favorite bartender in the Oilers' 'sphere; Dawgbone, the pragmatic commentor that writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; Doogie2k, the go-to guy on physiology working at Still No Name; everyone's favorite antagonist Ender, Doogie's partner in crime at Still No Name; and SumOil, a frequent commenter here and the biggest optimist that any of us know.

Find the entire series here, tagged 2009 midseason roundtable

The conversation continues after the jump.

3. Who or what has been the biggest disappointment thus far?

Shepso: I hate to say it, as I called him as the player to watch last time (though I did also pray to the gods for Penner) has been Patrick O’Sullivan. He started off strong and has just disappeared, shootout brilliance not withstanding. He tried really hard and gave great efforts at the start of the season, but the well appears to be dry now. Aside from Patty O, the return of Grebs on Acid hasn’t been fun. I hope he gets it out of his system while he’s on the IR. The Wall really hasn’t been great, but I know he too is trying very hard and has been working with a mostly AHL caliber of defense in front of him so I can’t justify ripping into him just now. I’ll save that for year three of his contract. Finally, Nilsson’s horrific -12 makes him my absolute worst goat of the team thus far.

As far as situational disappointments, I assumed Tom Renney’s PK would be a lot better thus far. I am also really confused about the deployment of Andrew Cogliano. He has speed, he has hands, he has o-zone awareness, yet he has been lugging around dead weight for much of the season. His game is more suited to the wing, yet he is insisting upon playing center while Duff Man was apparently brought in to play the wing. I like 91 centering 18 and 46 a lot more than 13.

Finally, and this is more of a heartbreaker then a disappointment; the flare-up of Fernando’s colitis is just so tragic for one of the best guys to play for this team in a number of years. I know this sentiment has been and will continue to be echoed throughout the blogging community and the city of Edmonton as a whole. Good Luck Fernando, we all miss you and wish you luck and a quick recovery.

Chappy: He's starting to turn it around, but I'd really like to see a bit more from Shawn Horcoff.

HBomb: Patrick O'Sullivan would get my vote. The guy can shoot the puck, but he has no finish whatsoever. He's like Joffrey Lupul in that he's got a slow release and takes time to get his shot off at full power, but when he does, it's impressive. Unlike Lupul, however, O'Sullivan's skill-set prevent him from achieving absolute uselessness when he's not scoring. He's not a lost cause, but at the same time, he's probably very available as a trade asset if Tambellini ever decides to try and improve this hockey club.

Dawgbone: Without a doubt Shawn Horcoff. In past years when he wasn't scoring he was at least generating scoring chances and doing a good job at getting the puck going the other way. This year nothing was going right for him early, and while things have gotten better, he still isn't having much luck (it seems any mistake he makes ends up in the back of the net). What's really troublesome is that he's not even taking draws anymore. Hopefully that's just a sign of tightness in his shoulder as opposed to an actual injury. Another disappointment this year has been Andrew Cogliano. 28 shots in 23 games is not enough, especially with his speed and ability to create his own shot. His biggest downfall has been missing the net. Among all forwards who have 20 or more SOG, Cogliano has the worst % of actually getting his shots on net (28 SOG on 39 attempts). That's defenceman territory.

Doogie2k: Probably Patty O'Lanterns. I swear, that kid must have an extra NOT gate in the circuitry that decides whether to pass or shoot: so many times, I've seen him pass when he had a lane, or shoot a muffin into the goalie's logo when there's been an open man. And speaking of muffins to the chest, I've also never seen so many shots directly at the goaltender from an alleged goal-scorer. Seriously, when was the last time there were so many bad decisions in someone paid that much? (Oh, wait, I watched Alexei Kovalev in Montreal last year. Never mind.)

Ender: Cogliano. Yes, he's been stapled to Moreau, but with the guy's skill level there's no way he shouldn't have charged up the roster like Gagner has. Maybe if their roles were reversed their stats would be as well, but Cogliano seems to have more or less given up on a 1st or 2nd line role, which is super disappointing - though it'll likely help with the cap.

Other than that, obviously my biggest disappointment has been seeing a healthy OIlers team for what? 2 games this season?

SumOil: I will like to answer this question as who AND what has been the biggest disappointment. There are many things wrong with this team-lack of intensity, lack of actual NHL players etc..etc..but the two biggest disappointments so far have been

a. Gilbert b. Passive Oilers management.

Tom Gilbert: Gilbert has been one of my favorite oiler in the last 2 seasons. After his 45 point season last year, I expected Gilbert to be an even better defenseman this season. I thought he will get way better defensively while regressing a little in his offesive production. This season has been a disappointment. His offensive game seems non-existent and he hasnt inspired any confidence with his defensive play either. He has regressed so much since last season, that if traded for Stafford at this moment, we will have robbed Buffalo. Gilbert is a good, smart hockey player just entering his prime, and its time he starts playing like one.

Oilers Management: Oilers management has been as passive as a monk this season. They seem to have an excuse for everything and are probably more optimistic about this team's chances of making the playoffs than a certain fan we all know ;). Make a damn move. We need a defensively responsible center who can win face-offs(after Hemsky's injury, we also need a top 6 forward but that can be a start). If not that, make a trade for the sake of making one. This might wake up the players who have gotten too comfortable with their lazy play knowing that their jobs are secure. There are many teams that struggling like the Oilers and will like to trade to send a message to the players. But no our GM wants to wait till 2020 untill the roster gets healthy. If we have learnt one thing in the last 3 years, it is that some one or the other is always injured(flukey one or not) and a definite plan B is a necessity.

4. Who, aside from Dustin Penner, has been the most pleasant surprise?

Shepso: I’m thrilled about the emergence of the real Dustin Penner. Last year I wrote about the unfortunate mistake that was MacT’s disciplinary strategy and the effect it must have had on DP’s development. Feel free to read it - I think it was my best work last season. Anyhoo, I am really rather proud of how he has rebounded and think he is the best player on the team by leaps and bounds. However, it is one of the other pieces of the former Heatley puzzle that has been the most pleasant surprise; Ladi Smid +7. That is what we needed from him. He makes great decisions with the puck, he hits, his skating is much better, and he just looks really happy to be on this team right now. That to me is the best news of the year. Quite frankly, the kid has been an absolute gem, and when paired with Lubo, looks capable of being an all-star shutdown defenceman.

Chappy: Having seen a lot of rubber in their own end, I think our goaltending has been our best asset so far. I think Nikolai Khabibulin has held the team together nicely since his gaffe in game 1. Should Khabibulin need a break (and I see him needing a few more than he's gotten so far) Deslauriers is showing that he can fill in nicely for 20-25 games. I'm very impressed at our goaltending tandem. Here's hoping Khabibulin comes back sooner rather than later from his back flare-up.

HBomb: Gilbert Brule's showing some promise. Yes, he's got some warts on his game, but he can finish and his faceoff ability isn't Cogliano-esque. Before he was hurt, Ryan Stone was the runaway winner in this category. Did anyone expect him to even make the hockey club?

Dawgbone: Vishnovsky. We all knew how good he was before he got hurt, but the question was could he come back from it? I think that answer is a resounding yes. Aside from needing some time early in the year to get back into gear, he picked up where he left off last year. He's been so good that I'm convinced that the Oilers make the playoffs last year if he didn't get hurt. Another pleasant surprise has been Brule. I was never a big fan of his, he reminded me a lot of Jani Rita. Very obvious skills that jumped out, but never in a position to use them. In the games I saw last year Brule was running around all over the ice and was never in position to make a play. This year he's been much better at finding lanes and attacking from in front of the puck as opposed to from behind the puck.

Doogie2k: I'm gonna stick with my original answer and say Ladislav Smid. Sure, playing with Lubomir Visnovsky will do that for you, and yeah, he was my personal Golden Rooster for the most recent Blackhawks game, but in most of the games I've watched, his decision-making has been much better and much calmer, he's been more willing to pinch to keep a play alive, and he's lost his man far less often than in past years. I know his on-ice SCD/15 year-over-year doesn't seem bear out this improvement at first glance, but considering that as a team, the Oilers have been much worse in the scoring-chance department this year, I'll take the relative stagnation as a sign of improvement.

Ender: I've been pretty happy with both of the goaltenders, which was the biggest question-mark for me coming in. From what I've seen they both easily have the skill to make it happen and while they both terrify me while handling the puck, I'm ok with my Penner-esque complaints against them. I said this about Penner last year and I'll say it about these guys this year - It's great that they can play at the level they do, but when they seem asleep in 1/3-1/2 of their games it pisses me off. If the results are there regardless, great, but my god I'd feel more confident watching the game if they got off of the Benadryl.

SumOil: There is one player who has has the biggest improvement from for the Oilers and that is Smid. However the player who has surprised me the most is Gilbert Brule. Last season when he was called up,he struggled in the big show. His performance in the A did not inspire much confidence in his play either. During the pre-season there was a lot of talk about him getting Brodziak's role as the 4th line center. Most of us felt that this was more to do with his draft pedigree than him earning his due. However, Brule has been one of those positive contributors this season. He hasn't been able to replace Brodziak as he isnt as defensively reliable, but has consistently provided the team with secondary scoring. Early on, being on a line with Penner did help his stats and when(finally) Penner was promoted to the top line, many of us feared that his scoring will slow down considerably. However, he is third among all forwards in scoring and 2nd in goals. Quoting Bruce McCurdy after Brule's performance against the Sharks:

"Brulé is no Hemsky obviously but I'm starting to think we might have an Actual NHL Player™ on our hands. He's showing some real intensity to go with a nose for the net and a quick release."

DD or JDD? Doppelgänger Dilemma

Bruce McCurdy — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 04:34:36 -0000

More photos » by Jeff McIntosh - AP

Devan Dubnyk

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Lowetide asked me an interesting question the other day: if I were building an expansion team, which one of Edmonton's young goalies might I pick: Deslauriers or Dubnyk? Let's rephrase it slightly to put an Oilers spin on the query: if there were an imaginary expansion draft, which one should we protect?

While there's hopefully no expansion to worry about, the Oilers will essentially face such a choice next summer/fall, or pay a premium to put it off. For now there is no hard overlap between the two, but that day is coming fast. Dubnyk is two years younger than Deslauriers and pretty much Exactly two years behind him on the career curve. In fact the two have a whole lot in common:

Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers (JDD) was born on May 15, 1984, the day of Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals (Oilers 7, Islanders 2 :)). A long stringbean at 6'4, 200, he was drafted 31st overall in 2002, the first pick of the second round, acquired in the Jochen Hecht trade. (Pick #36, Jarret Stoll, also came courtesy of what turned out to be a pretty good trade.) He was the fourth goalie of his draft class to be chosen. The top 5 were #2 Kari Lehtonen, #25 Cam Ward, #29 Hannu Toivunen, #31 JDD, #34 Tobias Stephen. JDD appears to be a solid third in this group, behind Ward and the injury-plagued Lehtonen but ahead of the other two who fired and fell back.

Devan Dubnyk (DD) was born on May 4, 1986, when the hockey world was still trying to come to grips with Steve Smith's own goal. A longer stringbean at 6''5, 194, he was drafted 14th overall in 2004. He was the second goalie of his draft class to be chosen. The top 5 were #6 Al Montoya, #14 DD, #17 Marek Schwarz, #26 Cory Schneider, #37 David Shantz. A much less proven fivesome, befitting their younger age. Dubnyk is the fourth to get a cup o' coffee, but none have played as many as 500 minutes in the show. DD clearly ranks ahead of Schwarz and Shantz, and it's a toss-up among the others, with Schneider having the best hype. That said, today DD is the only one of the five in the NHL.

At a glance DD and JDD are mirror images of each other with Dubnyk being the longer, stringbeanier, right-handed one with the slightly higher draft pedigree and the slightly less-bumpy career curve.

Both broke into major junior in 2001-02 so let's start there after the jump:

	JDD				DD
Season	League	GP	Sv%	Season	League	GP	Sv%
2001-02	QMJHL	51	0.900	2001-02	WHL	3	0.838
2002-03	QMJHL	49	0.888	2002-03	WHL	26	0.907
2003-04	QMJHL	50	0.916	2003-04	WHL	44	0.917
2004-05	AHL	22	0.888	2004-05	WHL	65	0.912
	ECHL	11	0.940
2005-06	AHL	13	0.897	2005-06	WHL	54	0.912
	ECHL	6	0.899
2006-07	AHL	40	0.908	2006-07	ECHL	43	0.921
					AHL	4	0.855
2007-08	AHL	57	0.912	2007-08	AHL	33	0.904
2008-09	NHL	10	0.901	2008-09	AHL	62	0.906
2008-09	AHL	5	0.906
2009-10	NHL	6	0.920	2009-10	AHL	18	0.924

Dubnyk was the hotter shot, played in the Dub as a call-up at age 15 and a backup at 16. By 17, however, both were starters (44+ GP) in Major Junior. So let's reorganize our data there, recognize that Dubnyk is two years (less 11 days) younger, and match up their seasons by hockey age.

	JDD				DD
Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%	Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%
17	QMJHL	51	0.900	17	WHL	44	0.917
18	QMJHL	49	0.888	18	WHL	65	0.912
19	QMJHL	50	0.916	19	WHL	54	0.912
20	AHL/ECHL	33	0.911	20	ECHL/AHL	47	0.918
21	AHL/ECHL	19	0.898	21	AHL	33	0.904
22	AHL	40	0.908	22	AHL	62	0.906
23	AHL	57	0.912	23	AHL	18	0.924
24	NHL/AHL	15	0.902
25	NHL	6	0.920

There are a lot more similarities than differences on those career curves. Thanks to the Oilers' inexplicable decision to suspend AHL operations for two seasons, JDD's development was more retarded -- using the word carefully -- than was DD's. Deslauriers was on the outside looking in especially in his 21-year-old season, whereas Dubnyk was still in junior that 2005-06 season, then got an everyday gig in the ECHL the next year which didn't hurt him a bit. By his own 21-year-old season he was backing up JDD in Springfield, and getting a reasonable split (37%) of the ice time, over which the Oilers had finally regained control. As a result DD has substantially more games in the lower league, all in one season, whereas JDD spent parts of two seasons in the ECHL and spent a little more time on the bench at whatever level. Thus even though Dubnyk has just begun his 23-year-old season, his pro experience is already a little greater than JDD's was at the end of his equivalent season. To summarize:

	JDD				DD
Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%	Age	Leagues	GP	Sv%
17-19	Major Jr.	150	0.908	17-19	Major Jr.	163	0.914
20-23	Minor Pro	149	0.909	20-23	Minor Pro	160	0.911

So Dubnyk appears to have a slight edge, with a little more experience at both levels and a slightly greater Sv%. While far from perfect, Sv% is the best single measure we have of goaltender performance. It seems probable that quality of team will affect that Sv%. The two only played on the same team for one full season (2007-08 in Springfield) and little pieces of a couple of others. JDD has the better Pts% ("winning percentage") of the two, .511 to .475 in their last 3 years of junior, .507 to .447 in their first 4 years of pro. Some would argue that JDD is therefore more of a winner; others would counter that DD played on worse teams and if anything that makes his superior Sv% that much more impressive.

Beyond that are the non-save effects, the "soft skills" which are so difficult to measure. I’m talking about game management skills, rebound control, puck retrieval and distribution. At the NHL level I estimate these skills or lack thereof might be the equivalent of a bump in a goalie’s Sv% by as much as ± .005. I’ve seen enough of JDD to lump him in the group I call "chaos goalies"; he better be a good stopper, cuz a sweeper he is not. We know less about this aspect of DD's game; what do the scouting reports say? If he’s a "control goalie" that’s another arrow in his quiver; if on the other hand he’s much worse than JDD, he won’t be able to play in this league.

For now Dubnyk faces two realities. He may be a little further than Deslauriers at the same point in his career, but in real time he’s two years behind. JDD has the 16 games of NHL experience, and the 90 games on the bench and all that accrues to that; he’s the NHLer. DD is where JDD was two years ago, called up for a cup of coffee but not guaranteed to even get a game. Last night we saw the two together in the NHL line-up for the first time, but come game time JDD responded to the challenge in a big way, posting a 36-save shutout. He wants to keep Dubnyk on the bench. (That said, if Khabibulin needs a few more days I personally would like to see the two split the upcoming back-to-back games.)

The other reality is that the club has committed to Nikolai Khabibulin who theoretically will be the starting goalie for the next 2.7 ± 1 years. If the idea – or should I say the ideal – is to gradually grow a youngster into the starting role à la Warren Moon and Tom Wilkinson, the timing may actually work in Dubnyk’s favour. JDD will enter his UFA years in 2011; Dubnyk is eligible to do so in 2013, just as Khabibulin’s hefty pact expires. If Dubnyk blossoms, the Oilers will be in position to pay him then.

Still, there’s precious little to choose between the two long stringbeans. By next fall Dubnyk will be in the exact same position that JDD was last year, out of options and needing to clear waivers. In JDD’s case we saw the undesirable result: a three-headed monster in the crease and a lack of roster flexibility elsewhere. As things shape up now, Oilers will face the exact same situation next fall.

In a perfect world, the organization will reach a decision over the summer or by the end of training camp. In a perfect world, they will deal one of the youngsters for an asset that will help the club elsewhere. And in a perfect world, they will make the right choice of which one to keep. My distant early guess is that will be Devan Dubnyk.

Coyotes at Oilers - Game Preview #24

OdinMercer — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 01:15:08 -0000

The Phoenix Coyotes arrive in Edmonton via Helicopter to take on the Oilers on Monday, November 23rd.

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So I was going back through the archives of the beginnings of this site and found something in my posts that I missed. Quality mocking pictures. AP Photos have been great and I'll continue to use them, but really I love putting up random stuff for opposing teams. I like a good photoshop. I even like the odd LOLcat here or there. So from now on MORE FUNNY PICTURES! Because I'm not a serious person and this is fun time.

On to the serious serious business of our game tonight. Our Injury picture is starting to look up at least a little. Matthew Lombardi was back last game and Ed Jovanovski is on the trip, but no one is sure if he'll be in tonight, not even the Phoenix Coyotes. Zbynek Michalek is getting closer to coming back and reports have him skating in practice. So we've done fair with them out and are getting better. Hopefully that means we can weather injuries that come later in the season as well. For Edmonton, they've been in a bit of a funk losing 5 of 6 and now being without Nikolai Khabibulin with a back issue as well as a laundry list of players like Mike Comrie, Denis Grebeshkov and Fernando Pasani among others. So we aren't the only ones fighting the injury bug.

Five for Winning:

Get the Goalie!: Jeff Deslauriers hasn't gotten a whole lot of ice time this year only getting 5 starts and going 2-2-1 in his chances. He's sporting a .895 save percentage and a 2.96 GAA. Not bad, but not outstanding. Fun fact, he's allowed one more goal in each start than his previous start. 10/12/09 - 1 goal against Nashville, 10/25/09 2 goals against in Vancouver, 11/10/09 - 3 goals against in Ottawa, 11/18/09 - 4 goals against versus Colorado and on 11/21/09 5 goals against versus Chicago. I can only Conclude the Coyotes will score 6 goals tonight.

Our PK has been great as of late!: We even made the top ranked PP unit in the league look silly on Saturday. We're playing responsible and agressive instead of lazy and waiting for things to happen and it's really paying dividends. While we don't have a shorthanded goal yet, we're getting chances and eating up the time efficiently.

Still getting defensive contributions: Keith Yandle has been solid on the blueline with other big names absent and it's really made a difference. He's been more responsible with the puck and is pinching at the right times instead of all the time. The payoff has been that he's been racking up the assists and even some goals like the one against the Flyers.

Time for Mueller to Step up!: Yeah, the HNIC guys are idiots, but if Peter Mueller doesn't start elevating his game soon those dumb rumors may come true. He's had periods here and there where he looks solid, but overall he still looks lazy and isn't winning battles. More importantly he's simply been invisible. Start getting things done Peter or you'll be trade bait for something GMDM and Dave Tippett want.

Dominate the Circle: Phoenix went from being one of the worst teams at faceoffs to one of the top teams this season. The Coyotes have won 51.9% of all the faceoffs they've taken. On the other end, Edmonton is dead last in the league in faceoffs at 45.8%. That should mean more puck control time and more opportunities for the Coyotes.

GO YOTES!

Khabbi Got Back (Problems)

Benjamin Massey — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 23:30:10 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers' Maxim Afinogenov gets the puck past Edmonton Oilers goalie Nikolai Khabibulin for a goal in the second period of an NHL hockey game Sunday, Nov. 15, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

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In case you've been living in a bomb shelter for the last twenty-four hours, the news bears repeating. Nikolai Khabibulin missed last night's game with the Blackhawks with a bad back. A back so bad that he could not even be trusted to sit on the bench and a flareup so sudden the Oilers didn't have time to bring Devan Dubnyk over from Springfield, leading the Oilers to give an amateur try-out deal to twenty-year-old Torrie Jung, a former seventh-rounder of the Tampa Bay Lightning and a mediocre goaltender on a worse-than-mediocre WHL team, the Edmonton Oil Kings.

Perhaps most aggravating is the fact that we know so little, still, about Khabibulin's injury. This isn't his first brush with the injured reserve, as Blackhawks fans still grieving over Cristobal Huet could tell you. We knew that he had a history of such things when he signed (whether Tambellini knew is another, very good question). But even in the cold light of Sunday afternoon the powers that be have deigned to give us very little information. CBS Sportsline hits the nail on the head when they say that Khabibulin's status is "uncertain": nobody in the Edmonton media seems to know what's going on beyond "day-to-day, his back hurts" and certainly the Oilers aren't talking. Our sole clue: The Oilers recent callup of Devan Dubnyk, which suggests "bad".

Not that a lack of transparency regarding injuries is new to the Oilers, of course. From "surprise! Fernando's colitis is back!" to the vague mumblings about the "pubis thing" that's kept Marc Pouliot out a quarter of the season already, less appears to be more to the Oilers' front office, this season in particular. Khabibulin's missed games last year were down to the classic Lower Body Injury, which at least means this isn't a recurrence, but on the other hand Khabibulin missed twelve games in 2007-08 with back spasms and anybody who's had back problems can tell you in detail how they can flare up.

Lots of professional athletes suffer back spasms at some point in their career and never have a problem again. A few of them endure back injuries and are never the same. Khabibulin is an athletic goaltender who famously exerts himself on the ice so much that his sweat is a running gag, and though I'm not a doctor that doesn't sound like a good sign for avoiding chronic back problems.

Of course, Khabibulin has had several other injuries, particularly over the last decade: he may be the most oft-injured starting goaltender in the NHL. So perhaps this isn't a chronic back problem and his body is just made of glass.

Hooray?

Buffalo - Springfield Post-Game. That Was Springfield, Right?

Benjamin Massey — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:31:42 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

Buffalo Sabres right winger Drew Stafford tries to hit the puck past Edmonton Oilers goalie Nikolai Khabibulin, top, during the first period of the NHL game in Buffalo, N.Y., Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Don Heupel)

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You know what? I used to like Buffalo Springfield.

Would-be Falcons were certainly making an impact on the night. Whether it was Ryan Potulny's limp-wristed feebleness leading to the first goal or Liam Reddox getting nerve stapled by Clarke MacArthur on a play that should be a ten-game suspension and will be a firmly shaken finger from Colin Campbell saying not to do it again, it was all about the guys from the Falcons. And the guys who maybe should be on the Falcons (O HAI JASON STRUDWICK).

So when you think about it, were we really all that bad?

The fact that the Oilers lost without distinction is obvious. They've had a few all right games in a row on this road trip and I wouldn't have picked them to get two points on the entire tour, so it's easy to take a loss to the Sabres as a moral victory, in context. They played like a team which had just gutted out a shootout loss against a superior team in Ottawa, which they were. They had every reason in the world to lose this game, and they did. The end.

Well, the end until news of MacArthur's non-suspension comes down, at which point I can dope up on rageahol like it was meant to be.

Most of the Oilers weren't dreadful individually. Patrick O'Sullivan made some classic Patrick O'Sullivan passes to nobody, sure, but he also scored a lovely goal and was a quarter-inch from a hat trick. Nikolai Khabibulin takes the rap for the second goal, which fluttered through his five hole like a butterfly into the eye of a hurricane, but he also made some nice saves. Perhaps his rebound control on the first goal wasn't the best either, but any NHL goalie will let his share of pucks out when he's down like that.

Liam Reddox was actually one of the best Oilers out there because he played like he wanted something from the game. He was tenacious and always hard on the puck, gave the Sabres hassle whenever they were near him - he was, in short, the usual Liam Reddox. Not that skilled but certainly more useful than guys like me usually gave him credit for. Steve Staios was also a highlight - and I want you to know how difficult it is for me to say that. Though his one mistake in the third period was a heinous giveaway leading to a penalty and only Khabibulin's right pad saved him from an embarrassing minus, Steady Steve actually earned his nickname.

When a team suffers as many injuries and as much fatigue as the Oilers have, the role players like Reddox and Staios have to step up. Unfortunately the stars weren't keeping pace. Dustin Penner had his worst game in some time, with a number of stick-cracking slashes by the Sabres going uncalled but the big genius largely ineffective even when he did have all his equipment. Ales Hemsky, rushed back into the lineup to replace Ryan O'Marra, was simply dreadful. Andrew Cogliano was a non-entity, carried by the stronger play of Ethan Moreau and Zack Stortini on his line. Sam Gagner was possibly not on the ice at all.

The injuries, though. We hope Reddox is all right; playing in his next game has nothing to do with it. We know Grebeshkov is going home after a dirty knee-on-knee play that got no call; one suspects that Bryan Young is sitting excitedly near the phone. We still have Bryan Young, right?

It was a game to forget, except for Clarke MacArthur. The Oilers and Sabres don't play that often, but when they do I hope the Oilers have long memories.

The Copper & Blue Reverse Three Stars, Unfair Though Selecting Players from the Minor Leagues May Be:

18th Star: F Ryan Potulny. Scored a goal last night against the ~~Senators~~ Avalanche, and fair play to him! But I didn't see the game ~~last night against Ottawa~~ against Colorado, I saw the goal tonight against Buffalo. And against Buffalo, oh boy did he ever look like an American leaguer.

I pin the first goal on him, as we discussed. With the Sabres moving the puck around our zone, Potulny was skating to and fro awkwardly as if desperately afraid to be caught doing nothing but equally afraid to be caught out of position and therefore being stuck between various extremes of uselessness. The puck went into the corner and Potulny threw his stick out awkwardly, subscribing to the Red Green school of defending and keeping his stick on the ice. The puck clattered off his feeble grip and deflected out in front, whereupon the Sabres ended up banging it in.

The Steve Smith who wrote the Red Green show? Not that Steve Smith. Ryan Potulny would do well to remember that.

Apart from that, he did very little. He generally handled the puck like it were radioactive and was thrown out on the last, desperate shift of the game because who the hell else were you going to put out there? Potulny has lovely soft hands and I like him, but the reason he's not playing in the NHL is because of his skating and because his puck sense isn't the greatest. Boy Jesus, he proved that.

19th Star: F Ales Hemsky. Has Ales Hemsky ever played well hurt? I don't think Hemsky is a stereotypical European sissy by any means. He can fight in the corners and he'll use his muscle when he can. We've all seen him block shots or take heavy blows in the corner that he knew were coming and keep going. He's not afraid and he's not going to shy away. But sometimes he gets hurt, and when he does it gets ugly. He's willing to play almost every time and we all wind up wishing he hadn't.

He plays a very difficult style of play. Even aside from his famous Euro Dangles he twists and turns when he's skating, tries to do everything at speed, and will try to play his way through gaps smaller than most players would attempt. If part of him really isn't feeling right, it may just completely throw him off. Well, he looked completely thrown off tonight. Towards the end of the game when he got into an unprovoked tussle with Patrick Kaleta, he looked utterly miserable, like he was about to throw up on Kaleta's face but was concerned he might be suspended for it.

20th Star: D Jason Strudwick. He's like Mark Messier at this stage. A constant danger, a reliable threat, and somebody who you never, ever can take your eye off for any reason. The only difference is that Messier did it helping his team.

Running out of hyperbole now. Stop sucking so much, Jason.

Season-to-Date Standings:

21 points: Jason Strudwick

14 points: Ethan Moreau

11 points: Mike Comrie, Nikolai Khabibulin

8 points: Denis Grebeshkov

6 points: Jean-Francois Jacques

5 points: Patrick O'Sullivan

4 points: Ales Hemsky, Theo Peckham

3 points: Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff, Patrick O'Sullivan, Ryan Stone

1 point: Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Ryan Potulny

Oilers Scouting Report: Questions With Copper and Blue

David Oleksy — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:42:01 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Lewis - AP

8 months ago: Edmonton Oilers' Dustin Penner, right, is congratulated by Shawn Horcoff after scoring a goal against the Anaheim Ducks during the first period of an NHL hockey game on Friday March 27, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Jeff Lewis)

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This is a feature most of you seem to like and we will try to do it for as many games as possible. Derek from Copper and Blue was nice enough to answer some questions for us, in preparation for tonight's game with the Oilers. I hope his prediction for the game is accurate because the Sabres need a victory tonight.

Special teams will be a key factor in tonight's game. The Sabres power play has struggled this season but they have scored a couple of power play goals in recent games. With the power play starting to click, the Oilers might be the perfect team to play against. Edmonton is in the bottom half of the league in penalty kill.

The Oilers have already had 91 man-games lost to injury and they come to town tonight without Ales Hemsky, Sheldon Souray, Robert Nilsson and Shawn Horcoff to name a few. The Oilers still have Dustin Penner who is finally finding the back of the net but they look mostly like and AHL team at this point.

Follow the jump to see the questions I asked and his answers.

1. Much like the Sabres, the Edmonton Oilers have missed the playoffs for a couple seasons in a row. Is this the season the Oilers finally break through and return to the playoffs?

Our preseason panel said no

http://www.coppernblue.com/2009/9/12/1012278/oilers-roundtable-concludes-with

but the fan poll said yes. I don't think much has changed. There just isn't enough forward depth on this team to make a run right now.

2. The Sabres and Oilers were in the news together when the Oilers signed Thomas Vanek to a huge offer sheet a couple seasons ago. The Sabres matched the offer and the Oilers eventually signed Dustin Penner. It seems he has finally found his game after a couple of disappointing seasons. What has been the biggest difference in his game this season?

Penner's underlying stats have been good since he's arrived http://www.coppernblue.com/2009/8/26/1003249/an-amicus-brief-in-support-of

and this year he's finally come into his own. Coaching change, hockey ephiphany or dumb luck or a combination of all of them, I'm not sure.

The goals and assists have caught up to the underliers. I think the biggest surprise has been his efficiency on the penalty kill. That is just experience, in my opinion.

3. The Oilers allowed Dwayne Roloson to leave this off-season and they brought in Nikolai Khabibulin to replace him. In the off-season it looked like an upgrade but Khabibulin has struggled this season. What has been the biggest flaw in his game and do you expect him to bounce back?

Most Oiler bloggers did not see Khabibulin as an upgrade and still don't, especially with that huge contract looming over the front office.

Khabibulin's biggest flaw thus far has been brain cramps. His second-largest flaw has been puck handling. Once or twice a game he makes a play that just leave everyone's mouths agape.

4. We all know how good Ales Hemsky is and we can see Dustin Penner is having a good season. What other Oilers player(s) should we watch for on Wednesday night?

Hemsky is probably not going to play. Horcoff, Hemsky, Souray, Nilsson are all out. The rest of the team is finally recovering from the flu. If you want to watch an absolutely sublime defenseman, keep an eye on #71, Lubomir Visnovsky. He doesn't light people up, but he's always got the puck on his stick and has amazing skating ability and passing skills.

If you're looking for an underdog story, check out Liam Reddox. He was called up because of injury. He's only 5'11" 190, but he's absolutely ferocious in the corners and on the wall. I'm trying to get the nickname "Jack" as in Jack Russell Terrier to catch on because of his tenacity. Every high-round pick that likes floating into his own zone and waiting for the puck to pop free from the corner should be forced to watch Reddox tapes on a loop.

5. We always finish this feature with a prediction. Who will win Oilers or Sabres?

The Oilers are being outshot at a record pace. They are banged up pretty badly and they are playing Liam Reddox, Taylor Chorney, Ryan O'Marra, Ryan Potulny, and Jason Strudwick. Gilbert Brule is now centering the second line. If the Sabres don't win, they should feel very badly about their performance.

All eyes on the Monster

James Mirtle — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:33:02 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

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Jonas Gustavsson has made quite an impression here in Toronto so far, essentially rescuing the Leafs goaltending situation after returning from a groin injury. His save percentage is up to .918, he has a winning record and Toronto's on as much of a roll as you can be on after winning three out of seven games (3-0-4).

Tonight, the Monster will likely go head-to-head with Niklas Backstrom, which is the subject of my latest yarn at globesports.com. Along with Jonas Hiller, Antti Niemi and Erik Ersberg, Gustavsson and Backstrom are part of a new trend we're seeing postlockout where older free agent goalies from Europe are stepping in and winning NHL jobs (often without time in the minors).

One of the things I did for the piece was look back over the recent history of where goaltenders are coming from, and over the past decade, the number of Europeans in the crease has slowly but steadily risen. This season, as many as half of the starters in the league could be from overseas (depending on who ends up in the No. 1 role):

Anaheim: Jonas Hiller
Atlanta: Ondrej Pavelec
Calgary: Miikka Kiprusoff
Chicago: Cristobal Huet
Edmonton: Nikolai Khabibulin
Florida: Tomas Vokoun
Minnesota: Niklas Backstrom
Montreal: Jaroslav Halak
Nashville: Pekka Rinne
N.Y. Rangers: Henrik Lundqvist
Phoenix: Ilya Bryzgalov
San Jose: Evgeni Nabokov
Tampa Bay: Antero Niittymaki
Toronto: Jonas Gustavsson
Washington: Semyon Varlamov

It used to be that Dominik Hasek and Arturs Irbe were anomalies in the crease, with their funny helmets and unique playing styles, but not anymore. And with Gustavsson's success so far, it'll be interesting to see if the demand for the latest great goalie in Sweden or Finland continues next summer.