SB Nation - Anssi Salmela

Which Thrashers Are Playing Well at Even Strength?

The Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

The Thrashers have excelled at Even Strength so far this season. After the goaltenders, the biggest reason for improvement in ES situations are the two players acquired mid-summer. Nik Antropov has been the Thrashers best forward at ES and Pavel Kubina has been the best defenseman at ES. I've been critical of Don Waddell's free agent acquisitions in past summers but he hit a home run with these two guys. They were precisely what the team needed and as a consequence the Thrashers are much improved.

Forwards

The coaching staff might not like to use terms like "first line" or "third line" but the ES Time On Ice (TOI) paint a rather clear picture. The Russian speaking line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Afinogenov is clearly #1 in ice time. The next two lines are pretty even Kozlov-White-Little and Kane-Peverley-Armstrong. The 4th line (Boulton-Slater-Thorburn) with Marty Reasoner going back and forth between the 3rd and 4th lines.

Who is facing the toughest opposition? According the Gabe Desjardin's Quality of Competition measure (opponent's Relative Goal Differential at Even Strength) Todd White, Bryan Little Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk face the best players, while Boulton, Slater and Thorburn are sheltered.

Who is most effective? At even strength the name of the game is winning on the scoreboard. I have ranked all the players below according to their Goal Differential (GFA-GAA) per 60 minutes of ES TOI. Antropov is your clear leader. Why have the Thrashers gotten so much better this season? Well look at that list of players and you can see that 4 of the 5 most effective ES players were not on this roster one year ago today. Peverley was added in last January an Antropov via Free Agency, Kane at the NHL Draft and Afinogenov was a late NHL Camp tryout. Every single one of those moves has worked out very well!

Another measure to compare players is Desjardins' "Rating" column which compares each players net Goal Differential when that player is on the ice to when that player is off the ice. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk averages a +.59 Goal Differential when he is on the ice, but his Rating is just .01 which means that the Atlanta Thrashers post a+.58 when Kovalchuk is off the ice at ES. On the other hand, the Thrashers do much better when Nik Antropov is on the ice than when he is off it. In fact, when Antropov is off the ice the Thrashers have been out-scored at ES this season--he is only forward for whom that is true.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
NIK ANTROPOV	26	14.6	0.00	29	16	4.59	2.53	2.06	2.28
MARTY REASONER	26	9.2	0.00	14	7	3.52	1.76	1.76	1.57
EVANDER KANE	26	12.1	0.00	20	13	3.81	2.48	1.33	1.13
RICH PEVERLEY	26	12.9	-0.03	20	14	3.57	2.50	1.07	0.79
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	26	14.4	0.01	24	18	3.85	2.89	0.96	0.67
BRYAN LITTLE	24	12.6	0.09	16	12	3.17	2.38	0.79	0.64
ILYA KOVALCHUK	20	15.1	0.07	17	14	3.37	2.77	0.59	0.01
COLBY ARMSTRONG	25	11.6	-0.02	12	12	2.48	2.48	0.00	-0.49
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	26	11.8	0.07	12	14	2.34	2.73	-0.39	-1.21
ERIC BOULTON	24	6.2	-0.09	4	6	1.62	2.43	-0.81	-1.31
CHRIS THORBURN	26	6.7	-0.06	4	6	1.38	2.07	-0.69	-1.40
TODD WHITE	26	12.0	0.13	10	15	1.93	2.89	-0.96	-1.99
JIM SLATER	11	8.4	-0.07	1	5	0.65	3.26	-2.61	-4.94

On defense Pavel Kubina has played like an All-Star minus big gaudy point totals.The Toronto Maple Leafs dumped Kubina's salary so they could sign Mike Komisarek, but I suspect that Kubina is having a better season than Komisarek is. When Kubina is on the ice in Even Skater situations the Thrashers have outscored the opposition by an astonishing 29-11 margin. Wow! When Pavel Kubina is off the ice at Even Strength the Thrashers have been outscored this season--Kubina is the only defenseman for which that statement is true. According to Desjardins Quality of Competition rating, Kubina is also facing the toughest opponents every night (with Ron Hainsey right behind him). Kubina makes some big coin ($5 million) and if he departs as a UFA this summer he will leave a giant hole.

Despite putting up some big goal totals this season Zach Bogosian has been exploited at times during even strength play. His 3.25 GAA is not very good. All three of the 3rd pairing defensemen appear to drag down the team's offense when they are on the ice (compare at their GFA to the top four guys).

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
PAVEL KUBINA	25	16.8	0.08	29	11	4.14	1.57	2.57	3.15
TOBIAS ENSTROM	26	16.3	0.02	26	17	3.69	2.41	1.28	1.20
ANSSI SALMELA	15	13.0	-0.04	7	6	2.15	1.85	0.31	-0.17
RON HAINSEY	24	15.6	0.07	19	18	3.04	2.88	0.16	-0.34
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	24	13.5	-0.04	11	13	2.04	2.41	-0.37	-1.14
ZACH BOGOSIAN	26	17.8	0.04	21	25	2.73	3.25	-0.52	-1.67
MARK POPOVIC	16	11.7	-0.09	7	10	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Conclusion

The Thrashers are playing better because they are better. The new players that were added this summer (Kubina, Antropov, Afinogenov, Kane) all rank near the top at their respective positions.

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

Schubert Winning 5th D Job: We Compare 3rd Pairing D

The Falconer — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:04:17 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

21 days ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31) ,of the Czech Republic, is congratulated by teammate defenseman Christoph Schubert (16), of Germany, after they defeated the Detroit Red Wings 2-0. Pavelec had 40 saves in the shutout win. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

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When NHL Training Camp opened in September, the Thrashers had the best collection of defensemen in their short team history. The top four of Enstrom, Bogosian, Kubina and Hainsey had secure jobs, but the bottom three spots were wide open. Contenders included players from last season such as Boris Valabik, Anssi Salmela and Nathan Oystrick and tryout Mark Popovic. Popovic ended up winning the last roster spot over Oystrick (who was put on waivers and then the AHL).

Then on October 2nd the Atlanta Thrashers put in a waiver claim on Christoph Schubert a big German born player who was originally a defenseman. The Ottawa Senators had chosen to employ him as a 4th line checker instead of defense. Not long after Schubert was acquired Boris Valabik had an injury that made him unavailable for an extended period of time.

For most of this season the Thrashers coaching staff has had three options to fill those last two defenseman spots on any given night: Schubert, Salmela and Popovic. For the first few games they appear to have rotated the 2 starting assignment between the three candidates, but after the 4th game of the season Schubert has dressed for every subsequent contest. On the season Schubert has dressed 23 times, Popovic 16 and Salmela 14 (and Valabik 0 so far).

Below is chart of showing which games each defenseman has played and how much total ice time they received so far this year. Schubert is averaging over 16 minutes a game will Salmela and Popovic are about 13 and a half minutes per game.

Game	Team	Schubert TOI	Salmela TOI	Popovic TOI
1	TBL		16.0	14.9
2	STL	18.6	14.5
3	OTT	15.3	11.0
4	NJD		13.0	15.0
5	BUF	16.3		14.0
6	MTL	15.1		11.1
7	WSH	13.0		10.4
8	SJS	15.2	12.6
9	WSH	17.4	14.2
10	OTT	22.0	16.2	14.4
11	MTL	21.5	13.0	16.3
12	CBJ	14.8	14.6
13	NYI	17.7		13.6
14	STL	13.3		12.8
15	NYR	15.8		12.7
16	LAK	16.9		18.9
17	EDM	18.3	12.4	15.9
18	BOS	9.1		9.1
19	PIT	17.2		10.7
20	TBL	13.6	11.5
21	DET	15.4	12.9
22	CAR	18.7	13.6
23	PHI	14.3		11.4
24	FLA	15.4		14.7
25	NYI	16.2	12.4

Another way of looking at how the coaching staff uses a player is to look at their Quality of Opposition and Quality of Teammates calculated by Gabe Desjarins at www.behindthenet.ca. (If an opposing player's team tends to out-score the opposition at Even Strength than the opponent has a positive rating, if the opposing player's team tends to be on the losing end while at Even Strength, then the opponent has a negative number.)

If we look at the 3rd pairing defensemen we can see that both Salmela and Schubert face slighly weaker opponents while Popovic has faced MUCH weaker opposition. On the other hand, all three have skated at Even Strength behind the weaker Thrashers forwards with Schubert and Popvic just about the same and Salmela skating with much worse teammates.

Player	Opposition	Teammates
Salmela	-0.024	-0.326
Schubert	-0.047	-0.115
Popovic	-0.120	-0.159

Which defenseman has been most effective at Even Strength? One way to answer that question is to simply look at Goal Differential--is the team winning the scoring battle at Even Strength when this defenseman is on the ice? The Thrashers offense shows little variation--the team scores about the same regardless of which defenseman is on the ice at ES, but the defense shows major swings. When Popovic has been out on the ice (against weaker opponents) Atlanta has allowed an ugly GAA of 3.22 but when Salmela has been out there the Thrashers have posted an outstanding 1.95 GAA. In terms of their net goal differential Salmela has the best ratio of GFA-GAA by far with Schubert in the middle and Popovic far behind.

Another way to evaluate players is the using the Behind The Net On/Off Rating. This is a metric that is best used for comparing players who play on the same team and in the same games. A positive number in this rating system means that the Thrashers are doing better against the opposition when this player is on the ice at Even Strength than when this player is off the ice at Even Strength. The On/Off number have the same pattern as the Goal Differential numbers, they show Salmela as the most effective, Schubert in the middle and Popovic last at Even Strength

Player	ES GFA	ES GAA	ES Goal Diff	On/Off Rating
Salmela	2.28	1.95	0.33	-0.06
Schubert	2.11	2.49	-0.38	-1.11
Popovic	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Special Teams

The Thrashers are loaded with offensive minded defenseman and none of the bottom pairing D receive any PP ice time. The opposite is true for the PK where Schubert averages 2:19 PK TOI per game, Popovic 1:45 per game and Salmela just 0:09. Using the PK GAA as a measures of effectiveness, Schubert has the wost PK GAA of any defenseman who kills penalties, Popovic is middle of the pack.

Conclusion

The stats show that Schubert has won the trust of the coaching staff, but Anssi Salmela has actually been more effective when he has played and probably deserves more opportunities. The one thing that isn't directly measured in any of these stats is physicality. Schubert is big and likes to hit--which is a dimension the Thrashers lack at times. I suspect that Schubert's checking is a key reason he has dressed most nights this season. How the coaching staff will fit Boris Valabik into this mix is an even bigger question, perhaps a trade will provide some clarity in the coming weeks.

Game 6: The Shapes of Things - Thrashers head to Montreal, Look to Improve to 5-1-0.

aaron b — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:29:57 -0000

Heading into the sixth game of the season, who would've guessed things would look like this? The Thrashers are 4-1, riding a lethal combination of a very potent offensive attack, solid special teams work, and a goalie team that has been at times downright stellar. On the flipside, you have Montreal. The Canadiens, after a promising 4-2-1 preseason, have gone a lackluster 2-5, making this summer's big roster turnover look like a failed experiment, and putting the franchise in danger of their worst start in 68 years. To be fair, Montreal has already lost 4 players to injury, including defensemen Andrei Markov & Ryan O'Byrne. Defense hasn't been the only soft spot though, as the Habs offense has produced a little more than 2 goals per game, giving vaunted netminder Carey Price precious little support. Given the acquisition of high profile players like Mike Cammalleri, Brian Gionta and Scott Gomez, the hockey-mad market in Montreal isn't liking these results. The Canadiens forward lines have shown flashes of what could be, but the team has yet to gel.

Any of this sound familiar, Thrashers fans?

Let's hope the lightning-bolt-AHA!-epiphany doesn't happen tonight.

Jump for takes from the BWA-Team.

Aaron's Take:

What the Thrashers Need to Do:

Keep playing as a team. The hustle has been outstanding since the loss to Ottawa, the wins have kept on coming. Everyone knows their job and no one is overreaching or underperforming.

Capitalize on Montreal's porous defense. The Thrashers have been scoring in bunches, and then letting off the gas later in games. I would recommend stopping this practice, as it may come back to burn them in the future. The motivation to knock off a hot team must be running pretty rampant through the Habs dressing room right now.

Take that PK magic and work it full-strength style. The Canadiens' forwards are not exactly the largest of men, so keeping them to the perimeter for some awkward angle shooting might be a good idea.

Ilya Kovalchuk needs to break his Habs Curse. Kovy has just 4 goals in his last 13 games against Montreal, and only 8 goals in 28 career games against Montreal.

Tim's Take:

Don't look now, but the Thrashers are 6th in the Eastern Conference with at least one game in hand against every other team in the conference. They're 2nd in the Southeast Division with 3 games in hand against Washington, but only 2 points to make up. You could do worse than to think of the Thrashers as the current top team in the Southeast Division. (This gets to a point which I'm sure we'll make repeatedly before next game: these two Thursday games against the Capitals are exceptionally important.)

I'm not a betting man, but those of you who wager may have noticed that the Thrashers were not favorites to win the last four games. Their Stanley Cup winning odds are still 100:1. Where we see a vastly improved team, "experts" and non-fans are not necessarily convinced. I can understand some of their skepticism: we've been badly outshot (no Thrasher has a positive 5-on-5 Corsi number) and the majority of our scoring has come from Kovalchuk plus our 3rd line. If Kovalchuk slows down or the 3rd line stops seeing such favorable matchups (those three guys bottom out Behind the Net's "Quality of Competition" stat), the Thrashers could see a quick change in games.

Then again, remember this: national sports writers don't watch Thrashers games (with a couple exceptions) unless the Thrashers are playing a team they are interested in. How many times did we hear all about a supposed Kovalchuk-Hossa line that didn't exist during the Bob Hartley years? It's the same thing now - they might have better fact-checkers, but the truth is, there's not a lot of Thrashers-specific knowledge in the national media.

(That's why you're reading BWA, I assume.)

With all that said, here are the things I'm going to be watching over the next few games:

Can Ondrej Pavelec keep it up? It's not easy for a goalie to face 40 shots every night, especially when that goalie is young and playing as a starter for the first time. With goalies, you have to think of shots the same way you think of ice time for skaters: the more ice time they play, the more likely they are to get injured or get flustered on the ice. If Pavelec continues to see such high shot totals, it'll start to wear him down. If we want him to stay healthy and play 60 or 65 games this year, our defense is going to need to step it up a bit. The biggest problem with shots against appears to be the 3rd D pairing, specifically Mark Popovic. There's a stat that we can use to see a player's relative effectiveness at producing and denying shots called "relative Corsi."

Can the 3rd line continue to produce? After both Todd White and Maxim Afinogenov scored against New Jersey, my focus has left that line and turned to a more productive line. If you talk to me in person, it won't take you long to realize that I'm a huge fan of this line. I've been a fan of Colby Armstrong since he came over from Pittsburgh and I think that he works very well with Rich Peverley. I've liked the two of them with Evander Kane (though I think that swapping Kane and Slava Kozlov might pay dividends, right now I'm firmly on the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" bandwagon). So far, though, this line has been producing one goal per game. If that starts to dip - to say a half-goal per game - the Thrashers will lose most of their current edge. Really, this is more a question of Rich Peverley. So far Colby Armstrong hasn't scored a goal and Evander Kane has two. If Army doesn't get going, when Peverley comes back down to earth, it could be an entirely different story.
Can Ondrej Pavelec keep it up? It's not easy for a goalie to face 40 shots every night, especially when that goalie is young and playing as a starter for the first time. With goalies, you have to think of shots the same way you think of ice time for skaters: the more ice time they play, the more likely they are to get injured or get flustered on the ice. If Pavelec continues to see such high shot totals, it'll start to wear him down. If we want him to stay healthy and play 60 or 65 games this year, our defense is going to need to step it up a bit. The biggest problem with shots against appears to be the 3rd D pairing, specifically Mark Popovic. There's a stat that we can use to see a player's relative effectiveness at producing and denying shots called "relative Corsi."

It basically works like this:

(Shots for - shots against)[while player is on ice] - (Shots for - shots against)[while player is off ice]
Mark Popovic comes in at -18. Christoph Schubert isn't much better at -16.3. Anssi Salmela is the best of those 3rd pairing guys at -3.5. This is, I think, I pretty good argument toward keeping Salmela in the lineup. (Of course, Popovic leads Thrashers D-men in the +/- per 60 minutes category, so who can really say?)
Can the Thrashers keep up their shooting percentage? You can win games while getting badly out-shot if you score on a significantly greater percentage of shots than your opponent. I present to you, without much in the way of comment, a graph showing the shooting percentages both for and against for all 30 teams in the NHL.

Edmonton is WAY up there because of the game against Nashville. The Calgary Flames are, like the Thrashers, scoring in bunches. The Thrashers are a bit of an outlier, though. It concerns me that we could start to trend downward in that stat.

I was hoping to write a longer post on shooting percentage, but I feel like I've said enough for now. This is something I'll be monitoring over the next few games.

How is Coach Anderson Using His Roster?

The Falconer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:51:00 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

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Last season, I wrote about Zone Shift and Shift Start location (Desjardins has a description here). Now that we have a few games worth of data, I thought it might be interesting to see how Coach Anderson is using his roster. Shifts that begin in the offensive zone are the easiest--they are much more likely to lead to a shot on goal by the Thrashers. On the other hand, if you start a shift in your own end, that faceoff results in a shot against 25% of the time. Not only do defensive zone faceoffs lead to more shots against, they lead to HIGH QUALITY shots against. Desjardins ran the numbers this summer and found that shots that are fired with a few seconds of a DZ faceoff go into the net at the same rate as shots fired on a 5 on 3 Power Play. In other words, losing a DZ faceoff is the equivalent of giving your opponent a 5 second two man advantage--that's a big effect! If you're the coach you have to game plan these situations.

I have created a table below that shows the breakdown of each player's Offensive Zone Face Offs (OF FO), Defensive Zone Face Offs (DZ FO), and Neutral Zone (NZ FO) in the first three games. The final column is the percentage of faceoffs that are "tough" because they are in the Defensive Zone.

Among Thrasher Forwards, the 3rd line is getting the "tough" draws. Peverley, Kane, Armstrong and Reasoner. Despite starting in the "bad" end of the ice, Armstrong and Peverley are the only two Thrashers forwards with a positive Corsi (Net Shots Attempted) so far this season. That is very impressive. The other thing this tells us is that John Anderson knows how to deploy his players. The right guys are being sent over the boards to do the dirty work that is crucial to winning hockey games.

Who is being protected? Not the 1st line. The Kovalcuk-Antropov-Little line is right around the team average in terms of their share of DZ face offs. The 2nd line comes in slighty under the team average, but it is the 4th line that is REALLY being kept away from DZ face offs. Forget that bluster about the Thrashers having the "best 4th line in hockey"--Coach Anderson doesn't trust them to handle the tough draws in their own end. Boulton and Thorburn have seen just 4 DZ draws over three games. So far, the 3rd line is taking the 4th line's share of DZ draws.

ATL Forwards	OZ FO	DZ FO	NZ FO	Total FO	DZ % of all FO
RICH PEVERLEY	4	12	9	25	0.480
EVANDER KANE	3	11	9	23	0.478
COLBY ARMSTRONG	3	9	8	20	0.450
MARTY REASONER	5	7	4	16	0.438
BRYAN LITTLE	10	13	20	43	0.302
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ILYA KOVALCHUK	10	13	21	44	0.295
NIK ANTROPOV	9	11	21	41	0.268
TODD WHITE	13	11	19	43	0.256
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	12	10	18	40	0.250
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	13	10	18	41	0.244
ERIC BOULTON	4	2	10	16	0.125
CHRIS THORBURN	4	2	9	15	0.133
JIM SLATER	0	0	8	8	0.000
ATL Defense
RON HAINSEY	17	18	19	54	0.333
PAVEL KUBINA	16	17	21	54	0.315
MARK POPOVIC	2	4	7	13	0.308
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ANSSI SALMELA	6	8	14	28	0.286
TOBIAS ENSTROM	6	12	24	42	0.286
ZACH BOGOSIAN	7	11	25	43	0.256
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	6	4	6	16	0.250

At defense we see much less of a spread than we did with the forward lines. Every D man falls somewhere between 33%-25% DZ draws and the team average is right at 30%. The Hainsey-Kubina pairing is getting the most dirty work, and like the Armstrong line, they have managed to post a positive shot differential despite a poor starting position. Bogosian and Schubert have received the most favorable ES shift starting locations.

Conclusion

It is encouraging to see that the guys who have been given the worst starting positions have ended up with a positive Corsi Number (Net Shots Attempted). It is also encouraging to see that Coach Anderson has had the right players on the ice in those situations. What is discouraging is that the guys getting the better shift start location are not doing more with their territorial advantage--that must improve for the Thrashers to make the playoffs this year.

Game #3: Thrashers Suffer 1st Loss in Ottawa

The Falconer — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:19:51 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

2 months ago: Ottawa Senators' Daniel Alfredsson, of Sweden, is hit by Atlanta Thrashers' Zack Bogosian (4) during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Ottawa on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Fred Chartrand)

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It is very difficult to say anything intelligent about a game only broadcast on the radio. Throw in some drinking with fellow hockey players at Battle and Brew before the Thrashers game...and that pretty much leaves me with just stats to work with for today's post. On the one hand, it is almost ridiculous to look at team statistics after just three games. On other hand, we have a nearly an entire week before the next hockey Thrashers game, so why not?

Below I have created a table with stats for the Ottawa game, except for the final two columns which show the season Corsi Numbers (net shots fired at ES) and season Net Goal Differential (ES Goals For Average - ES Goals Against Average) for each player.

When working with a very small amount of data there can be a lot of noise (randomness) that hides the true patterns. In fact, if we look at the Corsi and Goal Differential numbers for Thrasher defenseman they give conflicting messages. According to the Corsi column Hainsey and Enstrom have the best Shots Differential and Kubina and Salmela the worst. However, if we look at the actual Goal Differential (controlling for ES ice time) Hainsey and Kubina rate as the most effective and Enstrom and Bogosian as the least effective. (stats say: Hainsey good, mixed on Enstrom.) As the team plays more games these data should become more consistent. Personally, I think Enstrom and Bogosian are playing just fine, so it could be a matter of some bad luck in a small number of games. Time will tell.

Player	G	A	Plus	SOG	EV TOI	PP TOI	SH TOI	TT TOI	Season ES Corsi	Season ES GD
Defense
Pavel Kubina	0	1	1	2	20:22	1:47	2:33	24:42	-18.2	3.41
Zach Bogosian	0	0	-1	2	20:17	1:05	1:38	23:00	-9.4	-1.05
Tobias Enstrom	0	0	-1	2	17:53	3:30	0:16	21:39	-7.2	-1.20
Ron Hainsey	1	0	1	3	19:16	0:07	2:14	21:37	-6.1	3.67
Anssi Salmela	0	0	-1	1	11:00	0:00	0:00	11:00	-15.3	1.53
Christoph Schubert	0	0	-1	0	13:38	0:00	1:39	15:17	-10.1	0.00
Forwards
Ilya Kovalchuk	1	0	1	4	18:32	3:37	0:11	22:20	-19.0	1.53
Bryan Little	0	1	1	1	16:04	2:55	0:00	18:59	-19.8	3.71
Nik Antropov	0	1	1	0	17:01	1:12	0:00	18:13	-17.3	2.47
Vyacheslav Kozlov	0	0	-1	2	14:33	3:30	0:00	18:03	-7.9	-3.16
Maxim Afinogenov	0	0	-1	3	16:17	1:40	0:00	17:57	-5.7	-4.29
Todd White	0	0	-1	1	12:27	2:55	0:44	16:06	-14.3	-4.77
Colby Armstrong	0	0	0	1	13:30	0:00	1:20	14:50	4.6	2.32
Rich Peverley	0	0	0	3	12:41	1:05	0:54	14:40	1.6	3.28
Evander Kane	0	0	0	2	12:40	0:00	1:45	14:25	-1.7	3.44
Marty Reasoner	0	0	-1	0	8:36	0:00	1:58	10:34	0.0	3.91
Chris Thorburn	0	0	-1	1	5:07	0:00	1:28	6:35	-16.8	3.36
Eric Boulton	0	0	-1	0	5:08	0:07	0:00	5:15	-17.3	3.45

If we look at the forwards, we can see that the #1 line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little are getting killed in Net Shots Differential but they have a postive Net Goal Differential. To be honest, I was very surprised to see how badly they have been outshot because my eyeballs are telling me that the Kovalchuk line is doing much better at producing sustained shifts in the Offensive Zone.

The data on the 2nd line is unambigous, they are being both out shot and out scored so far. In fact the #2 line is the ONLY Thrashers line with a negative Goal Differential so far this season. It is rare for any NHL team to have all their lines firing at once, so hopefully this line will catch fire as another one cools off.

Last year Colby Armstrong was the Thrasher Corsi MVP by a wide margin. He is off to another good start and leads the squed with a +4.6 per 60 minutes of ES TOI. In fact, the 3rd line is the only Thrasher line that has not been outshot by a significant margin. They have also out scored the opposition. This strikes me as a very good 3rd line in the NHL.

The 4th line scored in both of the first two games thanks largely to the heroics of Eric Boulton. On the other hand, they are getting killed in shots. Let's hope they can hang on and just finished the season even in Goal Differential. That would be a big plus if they can pull that off.

Thrashers Offense Carries Team to Opening Night Win

The Falconer — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 17:28:44 -0000

A great start. It was a wild and woolly game, but the Thrashers got a big win in front of a full building. The superstar had three points, the young goalie was good enough and a role player (Peverley) saved their bacon after Tampa made it close.

The Kovalchuk line played huge minutes and the 4th line was rarely on the ice. During the game it seemed like Bogosian was out there frequently, but his Time On Ice (TOI) was just under 21 minutes. It was not a good Corsi night for the team, they were out-shot badly--but it was one of those games were the scoring chances seemed fairly even to me . Peverley was the only person with a positive Corsi Number and Kozlov, Kane and Salmela finished with an even Corsi number.

Players	Total Ice Time	Shots For per 60 ES TOI	Shots Against per 60 ES TOI	Corsi per 60 TOI
Ilya Kovalchuk	26.92	15.9	44.4	-28.5
Bryan Little	24.33	14.1	38.7	-24.6
Todd White	19.68	35.1	40.1	-5.0
Nik Antropov	16.77	15.0	41.3	-26.3
Slava Kozlov	16.43	33.4	33.4	0.0
Maxim Afinogenov	14.90	33.9	38.7	-4.8
Rich Peverley	14.40	23.3	17.4	5.9
Marty Reasoner	14.02	19.7	29.6	-9.9
Evander Kane	11.15	23.2	23.2	0.0
Jim Slater	6.47	0.0	21.5	-21.5
Eric Boulton	5.65	0.0	31.9	-31.9
Chris Thorburn	5.23	0.0	57.3	-57.3
*Defense*
Tobias Enstrom	23.83	15.3	46.0	-30.7
Zach Bogosian	20.63	21.1	45.8	-24.7
Pavel Kubina	20.37	15.3	34.4	-19.1
Ron Hainsey	18.78	25.9	34.5	-8.6
Anssi Salmela	15.98	20.1	20.1	0.0
Mark Popovic	14.90	22.3	31.2	-8.9

Falconer's Take:

The game was a bit messy for both teams as they are still working out the kinks. The Thrashers got lucky on Kovalchuk's first goal (went off defenders stick blade) and Bogosian's goal (gaping five hole), but they were unlucky on some other chances (Kovalchuk missed a slam dunk pass and couldn't reel in breakaway pass).

One thing I really liked was Kovalchuk trying to stand up for Enstrom--this is a continuation of good team cohesiveness that we saw in pre-season games. I also liked that Boulton and Thorburn both fought--we need more from the 4th line and this is one way they can contribute.

Salmela and Popovic: I thought this D pairing was very effective all night long. Valabik might sit on the bench for a while if they keep this up.

Kovalchuk: Tremendous energy and enthusiasm all game. When he plays all cranked up like this, it spurs the whole team. He can't play 27 minutes every night, but the Thrashers are off for 5 days after this game. He still had one brutal shift defensively where he just failed to cover his man, and eventually he took a penalty giving the other team a PP opportunity.

Pavelec: He made some key saves in the 3rd. His D bailed him out twice by squatting next to the far post. He's not nearly as quick as Lehtonen in terms of going side to side after making the initial save, but he did what he had to do for the win. He will need to play better when facing a playoff caliber team.

Kane: He got better as the game went along, he still gets knocked around by bigger men. Getting his 1st NHL point should spur his confidence and let him relax and just play hockey.

Peverley: I certainly don't expect him to repeat his point-per-game pace of last year (although right now he's on pace for 2 points per game). He reminds me a bit of how deadly accurate Marc Savard was around the net. Like Savard, Peverley doesn't have a laser shot, but if he gets the puck within 10 feet of the net, he will score with a quick release and accurate puck placement.

Afinogenov: My expectations for his scoring are low, but if he simply keeps making terrific passes and playing in the opposition end, I'll be happy with that. No bad turnovers, so it was a positive night.

Bogosian: He got lucky on his goal, but he had 2 other shots that were quality chances. This kid is just freakishly good for someone who is just 19. His ability to get points at Even Strength coupled with Coach Anderson's style will allow him to score tons of points. The rest of the NHL will probably be stunned by his emergence as an offensive force.

Kubina: He was very solid all night. I'm amazed at how he can use his big body to eat up space and not get called for interference. He is not quick, but he did just fine against super fast Martin St. Louis. Hopefully this guy will just eat up minutes all season long.

Antropov: It is great to have a forward so big that guys can hit him and he can still control the puck.

Little: He is going to get a ton of points because Kovy and Antro will get a lot of attention, but last night he was getting tossed around like a rag doll on hits.

Boulton: I've been critical of the Thrashers 4th line, but his pass to Anssi Salmela was perfect, a well deserved assist.

Tim's Take:

Okay, so I'm a little late on this. Excuse me - I've been traveling for work. (I'm writing this from beautiful Wilmington, DE.) It's hard not to be happy with this game, but I might be a bit more reserved in my happiness than the rest of Thrashers fans. While the game itself was awesome, there were some unsettling things. So let's take a look at the good, the neutral, and the downright shameful:

The Good: 6 goals forced, top forward line all +2, Kane leading the Thrashers with 4 shots, all forwards winning 50% or greater faceoffs (except Jim Slater, an anomaly), 1-for-3 on the powerplay, won some fights, 0.971 save percentage on guys not named "Martin St. Louis"
The Neutral: 2-for-3 on the penalty kill, 28 shots taken
The Downright Shameful: 39 shots allowed (8 for Lecavalier, 5 for St. Louis), 3 unanswered goals allowed

Don't start the celebrations too early: we won our home opener against a division rival by 3 goals (before an extended road trip) last year as well. I thought most of the team looked pretty good, but I'm not ready to celebrate just yet.

I'm a stats guy, and a single game isn't really enough to crunch stats on. I'll have more to say over the next 10 games. I hope that this game is representative of the team this season, but it could just as easily be an outlier. So there's your crushing pessimism for the day.

Aaron's Take:

Ilya Kovalchuk is everything you wish you could be. /homerism

Any game where Todd White gets a roughing minor is okay with me.

Rich Peverley's next contract? $1.5 million a year over three or four years.

Eric Boulton's job is to light fires and ruin lives, and he did it well tonight. The sweet assist was icing on the cake.

39 shots sounds too much like last year's team.

HC Johnny A quote of the night: "Ruh roh."

Enstrom to Little to Kovalchuk, tape to tape to tape, a thing of beauty.

DO NOT take your foot off the gas when you've got half a mountain to climb.

Last year: 7-4 opening night win over the Capitals, and then a 1-6-2 October. This year will be won or lost over the next 5 games.

And here is your inaugural Rich Peverley/MOAR! LoLThrash of the season:

Mr. Shake's Take: Overall, an exciting game. The crowd was fantastic. Nice season opener, reminded me very much of last season’s. As Kovalchuk stated, “last year, we won the first game too,” so let’s hope it doesn’t go down the same way over the next 10 games. But based on the difference in skill level out there, I don’t think it should mirror that at all.

Tampa Bay played a pretty good game as well, and I expect them to be better this season. Victor Hedman is going to be a key piece for them. He played the most minutes on their side. He was exciting to watch. By the way, anytime you want to give the Thrashers a freebie Tampa, go right on ahead, don’t mind at all.

Players that stood out for me:

Pavelec: He was terrific out there. Granted he was flipping and flopping a few times, but the kid seemed to give it his all the entire game. If any of you Legace supporters didn’t see him over prospect camp, Pavelec played a very similar game to Legace’s last night. But please Ondrej, stay in the crease a little bit more. Those dives where he’s leaving the net wide open can be effective, but also heart-stopping.

Peverley: I’ll admit, I was a doubter going into this season, but the man was impressive last night. I do not expect three point nights to continue, but he was in all the right places offensively and defensively. He is fine on the third line in Atlanta, so no need to complain he cannot be as effective as last year.

Kane: He battled very hard once he let the butterflies leave his stomach. His first couple shifts, he seemed scared, but he settled down and started playing his game. When he gets bigger, he should really help out this team. Good for him on getting his first point in his first game.

Salmela: He looked great tonight. All preseason he hasn’t been visible, which does not necessarily mean a bad thing, but he made some good outlet passes and had a terrific goal. All the defensemen seemed to be joining the rush or the play down low at times, and the extra man paid off on his goal.

Enstrom: He got hammered into the boards early on. If anyone missed this hit from the World Championships this spring, that surely flashed through my eyes. But he got right back up and played hard the rest of the game, so no harm there.

Kovalchuk: He was on fire last night. It was stated early on that coach John Anderson could see he wanted to get going right away. Well you could sure see it out there last night. I read earlier in the day before the game, that the coach planned on having two power play units out there. I didn’t see Ilya giving up his spot last night, and my guess is Anderson knew it was better to keep him out there. He was all over the place. A couple of defensive lapses, but he really wanted to score last night, and was looking for the breakaway. He knows it’s his team and he wants to get them started the right way.

Afinogenov: Speedy as usual. Trying to create space. That is what he is best at and once that second line gets a few more games under their belt, should be a bigger threat.

Bogosian: Great game, did not see any nervousness like last year. Nice goal albeit lucky, but so determined. He skates so well, it’s often difficult to see him moving his feet, as he just glides past other players. I believe he wants to challenge Mike Green for goals very soon.

Boulton: Monster hit in the first period that had Mezaros yelling, “look out!” Good scrap in the third to rally the guys to put the game away. Personally, I think he’s a necessity in the lineup as that character guy. Oh...and I believe he had a decent pass that put him on the score sheet as well.

Antropov: He hits and he brings the puck in the zone. Really tries to use his size. He plowed through defenders along the boards a couple times to get the team in the offensive side of the ice. Nice to have a guy that can avoid the dump and chase.

First one down, 81 more to go. It was a sloppy start, but had a bit more rhythm half way through. Once they figure out how to bring those shots against down, this team will be quite competitive.

They can definitely score some goals.

Analyzing the Battles for Roster Spots

timmyf — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 15:30:15 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31), of the Czech Republic, lets the puck get past him for a goal by theTampa Bay Lightning during the third period in an NHL preseason hockey game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in Atlanta. Tampa Bay won 5-1. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

With the last pre-season game (thankfully) over, we can now turn our attention to the final cuts that will be made between now and opening day. The Thrashers need to cut their team down to 23 players by Wednesday at 3pm. Let's take a look at where the team stands.

Up front, we've got 8 skaters who are virtually guaranteed to be with the team on Opening Night: Kovalchuk, Antropov, Little, Kozlov, White, Peverley, Reasoner, and Armstrong. Just four spots on the blueline are decided: Enstrom, Bogosian, Hainsey, and Kubina. There are serious questions in goal. Let's evaluate the 4 battles for those final positions.

The Battle: Kane vs Afinogenov

The Position: 3rd-line Left Wing

The Basics: With 8 of the Top-9 forward spots filled, the last spot will likely be taken by either 2009 1st-round draft pick Evander Kane or pro-tryout Maxim Afinogenov. Neither of these players will remain with the team to play 4th line minutes (or sit in the press box as a 13th forward).

The Dark Horse: Dan Fritsche. He could earn a spot as the penalty-kill specialist badly needed by the anemic Thrashers penalty kill unit. That was only reinforced on Sunday night; the Thrashers gave up 3 powerplay goals to the Lightning. His chances could be hurt by Coach Anderson's willingness to play Kane on the penalty kill; Kane had 2:51 of short-handed time in the final pre-season game.

The Twist: Evander Kane cannot be sent to the Chicago Wolves, he would have to return to his junior team, the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. After scoring 48 goals and 96 points with the Giants last year, there is little left for Kane to prove in junior hockey. Maxim Afinogenov, on the other hand, doesn't have a contract with the Thrashers. It would have to be negotiated before Wednesday. His last contract was upward of $3,000,000 a season, and while we could likely sign him for less, signing Max would further stress our budget.

Predictions:

Tim: This is a tough one. Don Waddell has said repeatedly that they want Evander to make the Thrashers this season. The coaching staff is giving him every opportunity to stick with the big club. At the Thrashers Fan Club meeting before Sunday's game, however, he also made a revealing comment. [Side note: if you haven't yet joined the Fan Club, you can do so here.] When a question about Max came up, the audience cheered and Don commented, 'Oh, you're making it harder for me now, his agent is probably here. He'll use that against me.' [That's roughly paraphrased from memory, not a direct quote.] I think it comes down to contract: if we can get Max for the right term (short) and money (in the low 2 millions), I think we sign him. If not, Kane sticks with the Thrash.
EvilMilkshake: If you had the chance to see Evander in the preseason, or even listened on the radio, you could see (or hear) he's not ready. He gets tossed around too easily. It's good to see him on the PK, getting some experience, but he probably wouldn't help in that department this season. He may get the 9-day tryout, but I don't see him sticking with the club all season. My guess is they'll sign Maxim. He's got experience and speed and although he himself may not finish, he creates scoring chances or makes plays on many of his shifts. Pair him with the right players, and his line could rack up some points.
Aaron: My head says "Evander", but my heart whispers "Maxim!" in an overly tender and loving way. I don't see any downside at all to signing Afinogenov to said short term/low money deal and sending Kane back to Vancouver. I can't imagine Kane's development as a player would be that stunted, and (I could be wrong about this) he's available for recall if needed. Will giving Evander 3rd line minutes give us that little push over the cliff we need to make the playoffs? Doubtful. We've got more depth at the wing than at any time in recent memory - let's not risk anything. Having said that, here's my offical prediction: I'm fairly certain Kane sticks with the big club, and Max walks.

The Battle: Boulton vs Thorburn vs Gratton

The Position: 4th-line Wing

The Basics: Tough guys Eric Boulton and Chris Thorburn have some competition this year in the form of pro-tryout Josh Gratton. As a "checking-line" winger, the Thrashers need a skater who can hit, fore- and back-check against the opposition's top lines, and drop the gloves on occasion.

The Twist: Energy-line guys don't normally score two goals in a game, pre-season or not. With a couple solid performances, Josh Gratton is going to make this decision much harder for the Thrashers' coaches.

Predictions:

Tim: I think the Thrashers tipped their hand with the lineup for the final game: Boulton - Slater - Thorburn. Gratton could stay with the Thrashers as a 13th forward and get some time in, but I don't see it happening.
EvilMilkshake: As much as I've liked Gratton's game, I don't see him staying with the big club either unless it's as the 13th man. He'll most likely be the first call up in the event of a 4th line injury.
Aaron: The performance of "the best 4th line in the league" last night told us we need a change. Ergo, Boulton - Slater - Thorburn it is and shall stay.

The Battle: Valabik vs Oystrick vs Salmela vs Popovic

The Positions: Two Bottom-Pairing Defensemen, Reserve Defenseman

The Basics: The Top-4 spots on D are locked up, but the next three are up for grabs. One of Boris Valabik, Nathan Oystrick, Anssi Salmela, and Mark Popovic will be cut before Opening Night. The first three have contracts and Popovic is with the team on a pro-tryout basis.

The Dark Horse: Just like Gratton with the forwards, tryout Popovic is trying to earn a contract by bumping someone from the roster. He's looked good so far, earning 1st Star honors at the first home pre-season game. Also, while not currently in the Thrashers system, Mark was previously a Thrashers prospect, so he's a familiar face within the organization.

Predictions:

Tim: You know who hasn't looked great so far this year? Boris Valabik. For guys as big as Boris, it takes some time before they find their feet and learn how to play physical without taking penalties. Personally, I just don't think Valabik is there yet. That said, sending him to Chicago would only stunt his development further. It's a balancing act between over-learning the lesson of Braydon Coburn (big defensemen take time to develop) and having too much faith in a player who isn't performing as well as we'd like. For my money, I think Boris spends some time in Chicago this year with a skating coach while Popovic and Salmela start with the Thrashers. Nathan Oystrick sits in the press box but will occasionally spell the other guys to stay fresh.
EvilMilkshake: I agree with Tim about Valabik in that he hasn't looked very good at all. He seems to be trying too hard. Valabik has performed well in the past, and it would be a mistake to send him down. So far in the pre-season he's gotten a lot of ice time, so his faults are showing up more. If he stays, expect 3rd pairing minutes only (he hasn't been on the 3rd pairing in most pre-season games) and even press box nights if he has a few bad games. I think Oystrick gets sent down. He hasn't impressed and the Thrashers have more options at defense this season.
Aaron: John Anderson said in his post-game presser last night that Boris needs to keep moving to improve. I expect Valabik to stick with the club for at least 10-15 games, but after that, look for Oystrick to come up after knocking the cobwebs out in Chicago, if necessary. Salmela & Popovic comprise the bottom D pairing.

The Battle: Pavelec vs Hedberg vs Legace vs Lehtonen

The Positions: Starting and Backup Goaltender

The Basics: The Thrashers have lacked stability in goal for much of their history. Superstitious fans might say the team has something of a "goalie curse," and if you were around for the 2005 - 2006 season, you got to see an almost shocking number of goalies. (Adam Berkhoel and Steve Shields, anyone?) 2nd-overall pick Kari Lehtonen was supposed to be the future between the pipes, but repeated injuries have caused concern. Backup goaltender Johan Hedberg fills in admirably, but he isn't going to be a solution for the top job. Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star Manny Legace was invited to camp as a pro tryout, and the Thrashers are also auditioning top prospect Ondrej Pavelec for the starting job.

The Dark Horse: Three of these goalies have contracts. One of these goalies does not. Still, Manny Legace has had an impressive career thus far: 177-92-18-23 with a 0.912 save percentage and 2.38 GAA in the NHL. His last losing season in the NHL? 1998 - 1999 with the Los Angeles Kings. If not for an unfortunate tumble on a carpet placed for Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, so the story goes, Manny would still be a part of the rotation with the St. Louis Blues. In his short playing time with the Thrashers, he's looked solid. Don't overlook the importance of his character: Manny's a fun guy, and the Thrashers are a team that is striving to maintain a unified locker room.

The Twist: Kari Lehtonen is injured. Thrashers fans probably won't be surprised by that statement. It's looking like Kari will spend the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season on the injured reserve, meaning he won't count against the player limit of 23. Once he goes onto IR (on Wednesday at 3pm), he must remain there for at least two weeks. When he's back and ready to play, he could see time in Chicago on a conditioning stint. Assuming the team carries 13 forwards and 7 defensemen, they can carry 3 goalies. Does that mean two for the start of the season and three once Kari returns? Or does it mean three for the start of the season and some player movement in the future?

Predictions:

Tim: Don Waddell commented that he was speaking with Legace's agent in an attempt to keep him "within the organization." I won't attempt to read into that comment here, but I'll simply say that Manny's shots at a contract are looking a little better than a few weeks ago. I haven't been overly impressed with Pavelec this pre-season and having some stability in goal would be huge for the Thrashers. I think we'll start the season with Pavelec, Hedberg, and Legace, but I expect some player movement in the near future.
EvilMilkshake: Having the fortunate opportunity to see Manny's one pre-season game and in behind an Atlanta defense, I'd like to see him here this season. Now granted, the lineup during that game was not all the players on our roster, but he proved he's still got it in my eyes. With the Thrashers current rotation of Hedberg & Pavelec, I believe it would be a mistake to not sign Legace as some added insurance.
Aaron: I'll go one step further: sign Manny, trade Kari for a solid PKer and tell Pavelec to find some way to not look so scared when he's in an NHL net. The kid can tear it up in the AHL, but has a hard time adjusting with the big club. He'll make a spectacular save, and then look a little weak on the very next shot.

Feel free to comment below and let us know who you think will earn a spot to start the season.

ThrashersTraining Camp Job Battles Narrow

The Falconer — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:15:17 -0000

After two pre-season games the Thrashers have cut down their camp roster to 37 players who are still in the mix for NHL roster spots. I'm going to assume that these 9 forwards have NHL jobs: Kovalchuk, Kozlov, White, Antropov, Peverley, Little, Armstrong and Reasoner. So what does that leave?

Forwards: 4 starting spots and 1 or 2 bench slots.

Incumbents:

Challengers:

Thoughts: All of the incumbents have at least a one year NHL contracts and I would surprised if they failed to make the final roster. This last summer I wrote about the "myth of the best 4th line" and suggested that the Thrashers could find better players to flesh out the bottom of their forward ranks. But the Thrashers choose to re-sign Slater and Thorburn which indicates they think more favorably about that line than I do. If the incumbent 4th liners are all safe, that really leaves just one active roster spot and one or two bench slots available.

How might this race shake out? Personally, I've seen very little out of Dan Fritsche in practice or exhibition play, the guy looks like he's lost his mojo. Gratton is probably the only person really challenging Boulton for the tough guy slot, but I think the organization values Boulton's locker room presence enough that he keeps his spot. Machacek looks pretty good but he might still benefit from receiving bigger minutes in the AHL. Evander Kane has looked OK in pre-season but hasn't really amazed. I've already laid out the case for returning him to the WHL--the fact that he's not scoring in pre-season could make this decision easier.

That narrows it down to some veterans: Afinogenov, Crabb, Stapleton, Krog. Personally, I find Maxim Afinogenov incredibly frustrating to watch play. He has amazing stick handling skills and good speed but it seems like he rarely turns those attributes into goals. Still if he's willing to sign for a low price, it would be a low risk gamble with some upside potential. My guess is that if Evander Kane goes back to the WHL, Afinogenov might make the NHL roster if the price is right.

The other three guys--Stapleton, Krog and Crabb--are all AHL veterans who are no longer developing as prospects. They are all a bit undersized by NHL standards but have solid puck skills (Krog, Stapleton) or speed (Crabb, Stapleton). If the Thrashers were to keep Afinogenov and bump Peverley to the 3rd line, any one of these AHL veterans could step into 13th forward spot and it would not harm their development as it would a younger kid.

Prediction: My gut instinct is that Coach Anderson will give Jason Krog that 13th forward spot and one more crack at playing in the NHL. Krog and Anderson had some great seasons together in Chicago and if anyone knows what Jason brings to the table--it is Anderson.

Defense

The top four defensemen (Bogosian, Enstrom, Hainsey and Kubina) appear set and that leaves two starting positions and a bench slot up for grabs.

Incumbents

Challengers

I would cross Vernance off the list first. He looked totally out of his league in Nashville and I'm surprised that he survived the most recent round of cuts. I haven't seen Welch in game action, but like Dan Fritsche you have to really look hard to notice him in training camp. I'm a big Grant Lewis supporter, but he's clearly still recovering from his significant knee injury. Postma probably needs a full season in the AHL playing against bigger men.

That leaves 3 incumbents and 2 challengers battling it out for 3 slots. So far Kulda and Popovic both have played well and gotten the attention of Coach Anderson. I would not be surprised if either were on the team opening day. The biggest problem for Kulda is that he can be sent down that gives the Thrashers a quality first call up should injuries strike. With Popovic they have to fish or cut bait soon--which gives him more leverage in some respects.

The real question is who would they knock off? I can't see Valabik going anywhere. His size and physicality are badly needed on this roster. I do think that both Salmela and Oystrick could be vulnerable to losing their spot. Oystrick in particular looked very nervous and rough at times in the Nashville pre-season game. Perhaps, it was just initial nerves but if he continues to struggle in pre-season he could end up on the outside looking in. Salmela was ridiculously non-physical in Nashville allowing opposing forwards to do pretty much whatever they wanted. He can't continue to play like that and hold a NHL D spot.

Summary: If Oystrick and Salmela can play like they did at the end of last season, they should hold off Popovic. The next few games will be crucial.

Goaltender

The incumbent Lehtonen is hurt yet again and his lack of professionalism is irritating a team that needs someone reliable in the nets. The Opening Night starting job is a free for all. Ondrej Pavelec played a very strong game in Tampa on Friday. MacIntyre played a strong period in Nashville. Manny Legace is a NHL pro with a long track record. Johan Hedberg is the sentimental favorite of many, but is under heavy pressure this camp. The Thrashers have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs assuming they get solid goaltending most nights. If Legace looks better than Hedberg, the team would be wise to put keep him, skill not likability must determine this contest.

Expectation: Lehtonen starts the season on IR, with Pavelec and Legace on the opening night roster.

Atlanta Thrashers 2009-2010 Season Preview

The Falconer — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 05:58:40 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

8 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers left wing Ilya Kovalchuk, of Russia, celebrates a Thrashers goal against the Ottawa Senators during the second period of an NHL hockey game at Philips Arena, Saturday, March 28, 2009, in Atlanta. The Thrashers won 6-3. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

Browse more photos »

2008-09 Season Recap Recap

It was a tale of two halves for the Thrashers. In the first half they went 13-23-5 and were on pace for 62 points and perhaps the #1 overall draft pick. In the second half, they went 21-18-1 and were on pace of 86 points which would have left them short of the playoffs, but in the hunt. It was a season of getting younger as veterans were traded away and young players stepped up their game. Perhaps, most impressive was how the Thrashers crushed the hopes of many teams hungry for playoff points in March. Down the stretch the Thrashers went 6-2 against playoff bubble teams. Were the Thrashers just "hot" or did they turn a corner last spring? The 2009-10 season will help answer that question.

Who's In

The Thrashers added NHL regulars Nik Antropov (via free agency) and Pavel Kubina (via a trade with Toronto). Two other players (Anssi Salmela and Rich Peverley) were acquired in the 2nd half and will have their first full season in Atlanta. Evander Kane was drafted 4th overall this summer and appears poised to make the roster. NHL veterans Jason Krog, Anthony Stewart, Joey Crabb and Dan Fritsche are in the mix for the final forward spots along with prospects Spencer Machacek, Angelo Esposito, and Jordan LaVallee. Noah Welch and Mark Popovic are battling Nathan Oystrick and Anssi Salmela for the final defense spots.

Who's Out

Eric Perrin was unhappy with his role last season, and after no team claimed him from waivers, he departed for Europe this summer. Rugged Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart were sent to Toronto in the Kubina trade. Niclas Havelid and Mathieu Schneider were both traded at the deadline. Forward Jason Williams was dealt mid-season and Erik Christensen left at the trade deadline.

(more after the jump)

Team Strengths

This team can score in bunches. Last year the Thrashers finished 9th in Goal Scored--ahead of 8 other playoff teams. The Thrashers power play finished 11th in PP%--which was better than 9 other playoff teams. They scored 257 goals despite the fact that the 1st line severely under performed during the first half. Kovalchuk was passing too much, Jason Williams didn't play Coach Anderson's system and Eric Christensen left his confidence in Pittsburgh. Kovalchuk caught on fire after being named Captain and ripped off a furious 2nd half. Zach Bogosian and Tobias Enstrom thrived while playing with each other after their veteran partners departed. With the swap of Exelby for Kubina and the Nik Antropov replacing the Jason Williams/Rich Peverly combo, I would not be stunned if this team finished in the top 5 in team offense.

The Thrashers defense has more skill than at any point in team history. Each member of the top four can make a good outlet pass. The addition of Kubina greatly upgrades the passing of the 2nd D pairing. Last season, smart teams pressured Hainsey and made him dish over to his partner Exelby who frequently just dumped the puck to center ice. The Thrashers are very likely to establish a new record for points from their defensemen in the coming season.

The Thrasher skaters have been unusually healthy. Star forward Ilya Kovalchuk has proven remarkably durable throughout his NHL career. Even small Thrashers players like Todd White, Rich Peverley and Bryan Little have missed very few games. Zach Bogosian was the only impact skater to miss a signficant amout of time. Are the Thrashers tough or just lucky? Injuries are not completely random events, some players simply have stonger bones and connective tissues which allow them to handle repeated stresses. If the Thrashers continue their healthy ways that will significantly aid their pursuit of the playoffs.

Team Weaknesses

How much better is the defense? Two summers ago the team added Ron Hainsey and cut Alexei Zhitnik and the Thrashers improved from 30th to 29th in the standings. If the addition of Pavel Kubina doesn't have a larger effect than that, the Thrashers season will end bitterly once again. Even if the offense ranks as high as 5th in the NHL, the defense must make major improvements. The biggest defensive problem is the Penalty Kill. Last year the Thrashers allowed 280 goals, nearly 1/3 of those came while short a man. Atlanta's PK was dead last for most of the year, and yet none of the roster additions were top tier PK players on their previous teams--a big source for concern.

What will they get out of Kari Lehtonen? When healthy Lehtonen is above average with moments of brilliance. He receives less help from his defense than many other NHL goaltenders. Backup Johan Hedberg is a great person according to all, but by any statistical measure (even shot quality adjusted SV%) he is far below average in net. The Thrashers really can't afford Lehtonen to miss a full month's worth of games yet again and they can't afford to have Hedberg start 20+ games. You have to wonder when the organization's patience with Lehtonen will be exhausted, the invitation of 6 goalies to NHL Training Camp may suggest that he is running out of time in Atlanta.

Can they play in the other team's end? Last season the Thrashers were one of the smallest teams in the NHL and they really struggled in terms of keeping continuous pressure in the offensive zone. When you look at measures of puck position such as team Corsi numbers and End-of-Shift Faceoffs, it is amazing to think this club finished 9th in goals scored. The Thrashers scored despite their lack of offensive zone puck possession at even strength. In particular, the Thrashers desperately need Kovalchuk's line to spend more time in the offensive zone. Will the addition of huge forward Nik Antropov lead to more sustained shifts in the good end of the ice?

2009 Atlanta Thrashers Organization Depth Chart

Left Wing	Center	Right Wing
Ilya Kovalchuk	Nik Antropov	Bryan Little	1st line
Slava Kozlov	Todd White	Rich Peverley	2nd line
Evander Kane	Marty Reasoner	Colby Armstrong	3rd line
Eric Boulton	Jim Slater	Chris Thorburn	4th line
Joey Crabb	Jason Krog	Anthony Stewart	depth
	Tobias Enstrom	Zach Bogosian	1st pairing
	Ron Hainsey	Pavel Kubina	2nd pairing
	Boris Valabik	Anssi Salmela	3rd paring
	Nathan Oystrick	Mark Popovic	depth

2009-2010 Predictions

Falconer: Jumping from 13th in the East to 8th (last playoff spot) is an enormous task. Can the addition of Antropov, Kubina and Evander Kane make up that gap? Can Zach Bogosian sustain the high level he showed in February and March? Can Coach Anderson motivate his troops to run through walls? The margin for error is small, but the answer is yes. Leave your mid-April calendar open Thrasher fans, golf season will just have to wait this year.

EvilMilkshake: Towards the end of the season, the Thrashers were on a surge that was sure fun to watch. Thing is, I think part of that had to do with the earlier season games and the overall standings in which the opposition approached the latter games like a cakewalk. Too bad for them. This season, the team will need to show consistency not just for a quarter of the season, but all 82 games. Playoffs? Yep, but it'll take health, defense, consistency, and will. In the order of 1A, 1B, 1C, and 1D.

Aaron: To my eyes, this Thrashers season begins and ends with October. One home game, a five game road trip, and the back at home to face the Washington Capitals (twice!!) and the San Jose Sharks. Oh yea, let's not even think about the Ilya Kovalchuk Three Ring Circus & Big Top. The dancing elephants of the press will do their best to remind our boys it's Kovy's contract year. As long as the D can keep the opposing teams' shot count down, our forwards have proven they can find the back of the net. If these guys can prove to themselves they can win, your 2009-2010 Atlanta Thrashers are playoff-bound.

Tim: Our odds of re-signing Ilya Kovalchuk seem pretty good right now. Kovalchuk, Kovalchuk's agent Jay Grossman, and Don Waddell have all gone on the record to say that a deal should get done. This is not Marion Hossa pt. 2. Therefore, I think the biggest question for the Thrashers this year is whether the guys who had breakout years last year (Bryan Little, Rich Peverley, Zach Bogosian, perhaps even Todd White) can continue to play near or above where they were last year. For his part, Little has come to camp faster and stronger than last year with the goal of scoring *more* than 31 goals. I'm going to put our points for the season somewhere between 84 and 95, probably in the 91 or 92 range.

Sure, that may be optimistic, but do you remember how many games we lost in the 2008 - 2009 season during the last 5 minutes of the game? If we had just gone into overtime, we would have come out with ~1.5 points/game rather than 0. There were *many* of those games. If you assume there were 10 games like that (and I think there were more), the extra 15 points would have put the Thrashers at 91 for the season... a playoff bubble team.

So, Thrashers fans, that's where I think we'll be this season. Not a wholly different team, but much less apt to fall apart in the last 5-8 minutes of the game. We're going to be a much more confident team this year.

Another thing to watch: if we do indeed look bound for the playoffs, expect ownership to be willing to spend cash to acquire players at the deadline.