SB Nation - Gary Roberts

Fighting: Just like Chess

Hawerchuk — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:15:19 -0000

by Chris Young - AP

2 months ago: Toronto Maple Leafs' Colton Orr, right, fights with Montreal Canadiens' Georges Laraque during the first period of an NHL hockey game in Toronto on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Chris Young)

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So how do we figure out who the best fighter in the NHL is? First, we need to know who won every fight that takes place in the league. Hockey-fights.com is an absolutely indispensable resource in this regard - its users vote on who won and lost every fight. But it's not enough - a heavyweight who fights only in his weight class might have a .500 record despite being one of the better fighters in the league.

As usual, chess has the answer we're looking for: the ELO rating system, which handicaps players based on their past performance. Using ELO, the loser of a bout between top-ranked fighters will be penalized far less than if he lost to an unknown or a poor fighter. Here are the rankings for serious fighters using all fights during the 2006-07 through 2008-09 season:

Player	Ft	In	Wt	Fights	W	L	T	GP	Fights/82
Georges Laraque	6	3	253	30	24	3	3	177	13.9
D.J. King	6	3	229	22	16	2	4	89	20.3
Derek Boogaard	6	8	257	29	21	6	2	133	17.9
Donald Brashear	6	3	234	37	23	9	5	220	13.8
Wade Belak	6	5	225	28	17	7	4	165	13.9
Milan Lucic	6	3	228	24	18	4	2	149	13.2
Aaron Downey	6	1	215	15	9	1	5	81	15.2
Raitis Ivanans	6	4	256	39	21	11	7	215	14.9
Colton Orr	6	3	222	52	31	16	5	209	20.4
Eric Godard	6	4	214	44	20	15	9	164	22.0

No matter how you slice the data, Laraque was going to be #1. His 24-3-3 record against no-one but tough guys is unmatched.

And what about the less-frequent fighters?

Player	Ft	In	Wt	Fights	W	L	T	GP	Fights/82
Zdeno Chara	6	9	255	7	5	0	2	237	2.4
Sheldon Souray	6	4	233	8	7	0	1	188	3.5
Gary Roberts	6	2	215	6	5	1	0	137	3.6
Kevin Bieksa	6	0	205	15	13	1	1	187	6.6
Craig Rivet	6	2	210	13	10	0	3	209	5.1

This group definitely includes some solid fighters who've made the highlight of the night with their fists. Just missing the top five were Robyn Regehr and Rick Rypien, who fight less often but have had good success against serious fighters.

And who have been the worst fighters in the league? Presumably, legitimately bad fighters will stay away from fights! But among those who do fight repeatedly, Corey Perry (0 wins in 7 fights), Greg Campbell (1-16), Brendan Witt (1-9), Alex Burrows (0-15) and Tom Kostopoulos (1-23) stand out as particularly poor. Those decisions come from Hockeyfights.com users - if you watch the fight videos yourself, your mileage may vary.

Philippe Boucher ponders Penguins, career, retirement

FrankD — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:42:21 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Special thanks to our residential French translator Becky for passing along this news.

Phillipe Boucher is considering retirement, according to a report from Canoe.ca, the Journal de Quebec (translated from French):

"I know the coach (Dan Bylsma) and general manager (Ray Shero) well and they've offered me the chance to come back, but in a very specific role. It would be something like that of Patrice Brisebois in Montreal, working mostly with the younger players on the team. If everyone stays healthy my ice-time could be limited, but there are always lots of injuries that come up during the season. It'll be up to me to see if that interests me," Boucher said yesterday before jumping onto the ice at the Saint-Étienne arena.

Boucher thus has to figure out if he wants to come back as a seventh or eighth defenseman with the Stanley Cup champions. "It's still early and we haven't set any deadline. I've had contacts with other teams, and we'll see what the future brings. With regard to hockey, I'm not at all worried about my future. In any case, there are still a lot of us without contracts in the NHL."

Boucher made $2.5 million last season which is, safe to say, way more than he can expect to make if he does return to the Pittsburgh line-up. Injuries plagued most of his season, as Boucher played in only 25 games and produced slim numbers:

	G	A	P	+/-	PIM
2008 - Philippe Boucher	3	6	9	6	39

Boucher's nine playoffs games contributed one goal and three assists to the Penguins' run as well.

Hmmm bringing him back in a limited veteran role? It doesn't sound like Boucher is sold on it. Frankly, neither am I. Is this something the Pens are getting anyway from a guy like Jay McKee? I don't suspect McKee's role to be limited, but his $800,000 contract definitely is (and something he was entirely comfortable with). His 14 years in the league also qualify him for veteran status, so we know he can bring some leadership and coaching to the younger guys.

Later in the Canoe article, Boucher adds that he considered retiring as early as last season:

"I started to think about retiring last winter; the season was long. But I'm training as though I'm returning for another year. Personally, everything's going fine, but it's harder for my family. We either stay in Pittsburgh, return to Quebec, or we move to another city so that I can keep playing hockey. There are several scenarios on the table, and my family is anxious to be settled."

There's a chance this may end the same way Gary Roberts' career did in Tampa. And by that I mean, midseason. I'd imagine Boucher wants to put in a full season somewhere, but he also has the championship likely tempting him as a way to go out on top (Jerome Bettis anyone?).

Any thoughts on Boucher? Would you welcome him back in a limited role or is this one of those unfortunate incidents where we must part ways?

Leafs Fans - We Get By With a Little Help From Our Friends

blurr1974 — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 09:00:18 -0000

After reading through the links today, I've come to the realization that the Kaberle trade discussions are not going to end anytime soon. At first, I was a little apprehensive with this knowledge. Kaberle is a Leafs lifer, and through his outstanding level of play, commitment to the blue and white and emo-esque almost uni-brow, the man has garnered a passionate following of Leaf fans.

The last time an issue of this magnitude lingered, we had a mini civil war in Leafs nation. The Sundo's and the Sundon'ts faced off for, what seemed like, months. Steely gazes and harsh words stirred up lot's of emotion on both sides of the fence.

In the end, we gave the man his due and, for the most part, considered it a closed subject. There is the occasional "sign Sundin" appeal to the masses from a select few (you know who you are...) but the response is limited to a knowing smile. This is Burke's team now.

As you click through the links today, I would say that the best tonic to those passionate emotions you're probably feeling is to hum a few bars of the Beatles "With a Little Help From My Friends." Come the beginning of the 2010 season, after what could be even more roster upheaval, one thing will remain...

We're all Leafs fans.

via cdn.nhl.com

Let's start things off with the hot button. Dr. Steve brings us the science on those Kaberle for Kessel rumors.
Down Goes Brown, in his usual stoic and reflective style, takes a look back at Gary Roberts: Senator Slayer.
Bittter Leaf compiled the 6 words or less, and added his own. Feel free to drop in and check them all out side by side, along with any new ones in the comments. Kumbaya and all that...
Loser Domi has another Leafs chat that includes some Thrashers as well.
TSM has their take on Burke's most recent radio outing as well as who the latest front office hiring could be.
MLHS listened to Burke on the radio as well, and came up with a few observations. Plus, some news from around the league.
TML Central has even more jersey and logo madness. Am I the only one who doesn't mind the Leafs logo as it is currently?
TMLFan Fury tries to predict the upcoming Leafs roster. Conspicuously absent: Tyler Bozak and Christian Hanson. Will they start in the AHL? Time will tell...
Meet Justin Pogge: a 23 year old washed up NHL goalie has-been (or never-was) who's name is never mentioned in the same sentence as the word "potential" anymore.
Former Leaf prospect Sebastien Centomo signs with the IHL Lumberjacks. My favorite quote of the article: "Centomo has proven to be a goal guardian of masterful winning stripe." orly?
On Frozen Blog makes note of the oddness surrounding Crosby's living arrangements.

UPDATED

The general goes all feline on us.

The Avalanche Rebuild: How Long Will It Take?

Joe Dunman — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 18:14:16 -0000

More photos » by Keith Srakocic - AP

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David and I are following the same theme today.

The word "rebuilding" was tossed around among fans and beat reporters during the 2008-09 season, but with Woody Paige's recent and insightful (ghost written?) article about Pierre Lacroix along with Joe Sakic's statements during his retirement press conference, it appears as though the Colorado Avalanche have now fully embraced the idea. The rebuild is on.

So now that we're all working from the same script, how long exactly does a serious rebuilding effort really take? Two seasons? Four? More than that?

To get a good sense of how long a serious rebuild takes to turn a lousy NHL team into a good one during the salary cap era, I probed two recent examples of great teams that weren't great at all just a few seasons ago. What happened to those teams in the first place? What did they do to make things better? How much of it was luck and how much was astute front office planning?

The Pittsburgh Penguins 2001-2009

The first and most obvious team to analyze is the Pittsburgh Penguins. After sucking something awful for nearly a decade, they've appeared in the Stanley Cup finals two seasons in a row and took home the Cup in 2009.

What happened:

Without any notable, big-name defensemen or a dedicated number one goalie, the 2000-01 Penguins went 42-28-9-3 and finished third in the Atlantic Division. Though their final standing wasn't that impressive, the Penguins, led by the older-but-still-glorious duo of Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr, made it all the way to the conference finals. Unfortunately, the New Jersey Devils were busy making a serious defense of the Cup they won the season before and the Penguins fell four games to one. The next season, standouts like Jagr and Martin Straka were gone, and Johan Hedberg stopped standing on his head between the pipes like he had in the previous year's playoffs. Oh, and Lemieux managed only 24 games due to recurring injuries. Coach Ivan Hlinka lost the first four games of the season (including game one against the Cup champion Avalanche) and was fired. Rick Kehoe replaced him and did a poor job. The Penguins missed the playoffs for the first time in 12 years, finishing with a 28-41-8-5 record.

What they did:

Despite hanging on for another 70+ games over the next two years, Lemieux couldn't carry the team on his long-suffering back. As it became clear the team wasn't going to succeed as it was built, the Penguins started dumping payroll: Straka, Alex Kovalev, Jan Hrdina and others were all gone. The Penguins, gutted of talent and payroll, began focusing on drafting true talent. In 2002, the Penguins picked up Ryan Whitney and Maxime Talbot. In 2003, goalie Marc-Andre Fleury (1st overall). In 2004, Evgeni Malkin (2nd overall) and Tyler Kennedy. In 2005, Sidney Crosby (1st overall) and Kris "Le Game" Letang. In 2006, Jordan Staal (2nd overall). Two top picks and two second picks, and every single one of them turned out to be a solid if not spectacular player. Also, the Penguins turned to guys like Ryan Malone, Rob Scuderi and Brooks Orpik, drafted before the collapse of the team in 2002 but not ready to play in the NHL until later.

As soon as the Lockout ended and the cap was in place, the Penguins began targeting budget-priced veterans who could provide leadership, grit and a few points on the board. Sergei Gonchar, John LeClair, Ziggy Pallffy, Jarkko Ruutu and Mark Recchi initially, then Gary Roberts, Petr Sykora and Marian Hossa. Finally in 2008-09, the Pens found the perfect match of old and new: Crosby, Malkin and the other in-house draftees with Sykora, Ruslan Fedotenko, Pascal Dupuis, Miroslav Satan and Bill Guerin. That unlikely roster of vets proved to be just the right combination for Pittsburgh.

Clearly, the Pens got lucky in some ways. Players past their prime produced above expectations (Satan, Guerin). Younger players with limited skills made big splashes (Fedotenko, Chris Kunitz). And players already achieving greatness didn't falter or disappoint (Crosby, Malkin). Two deep playoff runs and one Cup later, it's clear the Penguins successfully rebuilt a terrible team in eight seasons.

The Chicago Blackhawks 2002-2009

What happened:

In 2001-02, a renewed Blackhawks team (which had missed the playoffs the four seasons prior) finished the season with a 41-27-13-1 record under new coach Brian Sutter. Led by a solid-if-unspectacular offense featuring names like Eric Daze, Alex Zhamnov, Tony Amonte, Steve Sullivan and Michael Nylander, the 'Hawks overachieved all season. By the playoffs, it was clear such a ho-hum collection of players and a mediocre starting goalie (poor Jocelyn Thibault) wasn't enough to get the job done. Chicago lost in the first round to the Blues, four games to one.

The next season featured the same names (plus a superstar rookie named Tyler Arnason), but those names couldn't get any kind of winning rhythm together and the 'Hawks finished below the cutoff line with a record of 30-33-13-6. They would miss the playoffs the next four years. The seasons on either end of the Lockout were the worst, with Chicago managing just 46 victories total.

What they did:

Like the Penguins, the Blackhawks turned to high draft picks to fill out the ranks. In 2003 they picked up solid D-man Brent Seabrook and power forward Dustin Byfuglien. In 2004, they picked Cam Barker third overall and got reliable center Dave Bolland. 2005 was a dud draft for Chicago, but in 2006 they drafted Jonathan Toews third overall and Patrick Kane first overall in 2007. With a very impressive group of young standouts, the Blackhawks then turned to veterans. Martin Havlat (and his injury woes) was acquired at Ottawa's eventual expense. Patrick Sharp came over from the Flyers and Andrew Ladd was traded from the Hurricanes. Brian Campbell was signed as a free agent. The 'Hawks also relied on other young players either drafted by other teams or by Chicago before the decline: Matt Walker and Kris Versteeg, specifically. And Chicago also picked up defensive forward Sammy Pahlsson at the trade deadline of 2008-09.

The Blackhawks owed their vastly-improved 46-24-12 record not only to the strong combination of young and veteran players, but also to new president Rocky Wirtz and coach Joel Quenneville. The death of Wirtz's father Bill and the firing of impeccably-dressed coach Denis Savard proved to be just the right moves for the 'Hawks to emerge in the Western Conference. And despite Quenneville's insistence on platooning his goalies, Cristobal Huet and Nikolai Khabibulin proved up to the challenge.

While the Blackhawks were ultimately disappointed in the Western Conference finals by division rival Detroit, the deep playoff run and the excellent regular season record indicate that the once-glorious Original Six franchise is back in competition and ready to win again.

...

Will the Avalanche have similar success? They've begun the process well, drafting Matt Duchene and signing Paul Stastny to a long contract. But other young players have underperformed so far or are just not that good, and some important veterans like Milan Hejduk and Adam Foote won't be around much longer. The Avalanche will have to rely on both strong drafting and cap-efficient veteran signings. It's not an easy process, and there's a fair amount of luck involved.

It's not a stretch to assume the Colorado rebuild could take just as long as those of Chicago or Pittsburgh. Let's hope not, but don't be surprised.

Tampa Bay Lightning 2009 NHL Free Agency Primer

John Fontana — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 19:06:09 -0000

More photos » by John Dunn - AP

Tampa Bay Lightning's Matt Smaby (32), Saturday, April 4, 2009, at Nassau Coliseum in Uniondale, N.Y. (AP Photo/John Dunn)

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With all the uncertainty regarding the Tampa Bay Lightning -- the hearsay, the facts, the rumors, the innuendo and all that jazz regarding team finances and makeup – it’s hard to really get a clue about what the Lightning’s plans are in free agency starting July 1st. Stand pat? Salary dumping via trade? Here is just a quick capsule of what GM Brian Lawton and the Bolts will be dealing with once the free agency period opens on Wednesday:

Pending UFAs: Gary Roberts (Retired), Jason Ward, Marek Malik, Josef Melichar, Janne Niskala (Europe), David Koci, Matt Pettinger, Wade Brookback, Cory Murphy, Mike McKenna (not tendered qualifying offer), Richard Petiot (Group VI), Noah Welch (Group VI)

Pending RFAs: Lukas Krajicek, Martins Karsums, Matt Lashoff, Mike Lundin, Matt Smaby, Karri Ramo (KHL), Radek Smolenak (KHL)

Projected 2009-2010 Salary Cap: $56.8-million

Salary Cap Space: Approx. $21.220

Projected Budget: Unknown (rumors say the salary floor or midway to the Cap)

Key needs: What isn’t a need for the Bolts right now? Getting it’s RFA defensemen back is a must, and after having 2nd string goalie Karri Ramo poached by the KHL (and not tendering Mike McKenna a qualifying offer), it’s a necessity for the Lightning to look for a veteran netminder as backup. Besides that, a defensive leader would be nice (puck mover with the ability to rub off on the young defensive core) and a scoring wing to compliment Captain Vincent Lecavalier (if he remains past July 1st).

Potential Targets: The Lightning’s budget situation really makes this a big question. What could the Lightning afford? Speculation about how much they are going to spend all of next season makes this critical. They have room to play financially, but that does not mean they have the economic clout in order to do it. The Bolts do not want to sign aging players, but younger guys – which may mean those not tended contracts by their current team’s will be looked at seriously. In a wishful-thinking world, defensemen Mattias Ohlund and winger Alex Tanguay would be chased, while a goalie would be added for depth and the ability to push the Lightning’s under-contract goaltending crop: Mike Smith, Riku Helenius and Dustin Tokarski. Antero Niittymaki comes to mind. I do expect the Bolts do do bigger research and go for smaller names at each position though.

What our rivals want: The Panthers have their own Goaltending depth issues and are looking to bring in a backup as well – they also could really use a top line center. Atlanta is in a difficult situation (ownership woes), but to define it – they need to diversify up front. It can’t be a one-player show with Kovalchuk. Washington and Carolina, though they can’t rest on their laurels and need to explore improving, are pretty tight as-is.

'08-'09 Season Review - Ben Eager

McClure — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 20:56:24 -0000

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With the season now over after a return to the playoffs and the Western Conference Finals, we're looking back at each player who wore the Indian Head sweater for the 08-09 Season and grading their performance. We now turn our attention Gary Roberts' favorite whippersnapper, Ben Eager.

Ed Note: On March 25 against the Sharks, a column of mine appeared in the Indian detailing each and every one of both Ben Eager's flaws and assets and why they drove me nuts (Yarr!) in a very hastily and moronically titled piece. That 1,100-word Pulitzer winner can be found here.

Ben Eager

#55 / Left Wing / Chicago Blackhawks

Height: 6-2

Weight: 220

Born: Jan 22, 1984

Contract Status - RFA - 08-09 Cap Hit - 650K

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Ben Eager	75	11	4	15	1	161	0	0	0	0	80	13.8

The Good - In the 2008-2009 campaign, Ben Eager posted a career high 11 goals, and led the team with 161 penalty minutes, taking over the team's de-facto "enforcer" role from Adam Burish. (The argument for or against the Hawks' need for an enforcer can be made at a later date- short answer: they don't). He achieved these numbers while filling a fourth line role and averaging slightly less than 9:00 minutes of ice time a night. When asked, Eager did not look out of place on the rare occasions he filled in on the top two lines, because the guy never stops moving his feet. He uses his size quite effectively as well, finishing every single one of his checks, and shows a willingness to stick up for teammates using the pugilistic arts. He also beat the crap out of chatty-Cathy Kevin Bieksa during the infamous line brawl against Vancouver, so kudos for that as well.

The Bad - Aside from the Bieksa bout, I'm hard pressed to cite a fight he actually won- which is not good if you're trying to instill any sort of fear in the opposition for taking liberties with the Hawks' young guns. Not to mention that many of those 161 PIMs were as a result of stupid, cheap, retaliatory, selfish, and immature penalties. The most vicious of the bunch was a cheap shot elbow to Edmonton's Liam Reddox's head, which eared Eager 3 games of unpaid vacation, to borrow a Dan McNeilism. That immaturity also reared its ugly head at the tail end of the Detroit series, with Eager earning an impressive 3 misconduct penalties in two games. It's hard to be considered anything close to an asset to the team when you're off the ice that much in the two most important games of the Hawks' season.

Playoff Beard Stregth - A sufficient amount of grizzliness indicative of a trip to the conference finals.

Nicknames - Eags, Sunshine (?)

Related Photoshops - I don't even know what this means, but it's courtesy of mjthor, as usual

The Grade: We again have a case of a guy simply achieving, neither over nor under. The numbers prior to this year say that this is what Ben Eager was, and that's what the Hawks got from him. He brought just as much negative in his game as he did positive, and given his RFA status, and Aliu and Beach lurking on the horizon, it would not break my heart in the least to see the Hawks let him walk. He's a homeless man's Chris Neil, and I think Chris Neil sucks. But since we're grading partly on expectation, I'll give him a low-to-mid C. What say you?

Poll

The Final Judgement of Ben Eager

A

25 votes

B

130 votes

C

102 votes

D

20 votes

F

2 votes

279 votes | Poll has closed

Free Agent Roundup: Bill Guerin -- stay or go and at what price?

Hooks Orpik — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:00:25 -0000

Bill Guerin

#13 / Right Wing / Pittsburgh Penguins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 220

Born: Nov 09, 1970

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2008 - Bill Guerin	78	21	27	48	-12	81	5	0	4	1	226	9.3

For veteran Bill Guerin Christmas came about two months late. Guerin, then the captain of the Islanders, was sent away from the team whie they tried to work out a trade. Pittsburgh stepped to the plate with a conditional draft pick (a 5th rounder if the Penguins didn't make the playoffs, a 4th if the Pens did make the playoffs and a maximum of a 3rd round pick if the Pens won a round). I think that's relevant to look back on, because at the trade deadline it wasn't even certain that Pittsburgh would make the playoffs and they ended up winning the whole thing.

So for the 90th overall pick in the draft (assuming the Islanders don't get the 3rd rounder that Pittsburgh got for Gary Roberts and Ryan Malone's rights) the Penguins got 17 regular season games, 5 goals, 7 assists and 24 playoff games with 7 goals and 8 assists. Stats only say so much as the 38 year old outspoken veteran also brought a sense of leadership and a strong voice for the young Penguins inside the lockeroom. The Guerin acquistion will go down along side the Ron Francis and Ulf Samuelsson to the Pens in 1991 deal in the lore that spurred Pittsburgh to Stanley Cups.

But what goes on from here? Guerin earned a salary of $4,500,000 this season and the Penguins, already at the salary cap, are giving big raises to Evgeni Malkin and Jordan Staal for next season. Guerin is on record as being very vocal about wanting to play at least next year. Billy G has stated his affection for playing in Pittsburgh, but renewing a contract is obviously not a concern of his at the moment. That hasn't stopped the cheerleading (led by Malkin at the parade: "One more year for Billy....NO....Make that two more") but it remains to be seen.

If Guerin is willing to accept a reduced salary he's the ideal fit for Pittsburgh. Even though he's advanced in age, Coach Dan Bylsma did a good job of managing the vet's ice-time; Guerin averaged 17:01 in the playoffs and 16:40 in the regular season. He's not going to be able to play 20+ minutes a night every night like Malkin and his linemate Sidney Crosby, but the beauty is he won't have to. If the Pens keep playing him about 12-13 minutes even strength and a couple of power-play minutes he ought to have enough in the tank all year and the team ought to get the reasonable statistical output that some of Crosby's previous wingers (like Pascal Dupuis and Colby Armstrong) couldn't provide.

Guerin's made a ton of money in his NHL career, so padding his wallet doesn't have to be his primary concern. Still, Guerin's played on eight different teams in his well traveled career -- including five since the lockout -- so switching things up is nothing new or unexpected for him.

Now it's decision time, probably an easy one here on Pensburgh since all signs should point to bringing Guerin back. But with three top six wingers to fill and not much salary room to do so, GM Ray Shero's going to have some tough decisions to make about Guerin, Ruslan Fedotenko and Petr Sykora. It's not a stretch to think only one of those three will be back. So I'm making the poll a little tricky:

Poll

Bill Guerin was a good fit and seems to be a realistic option to come back but would you:

Make Guerin the priority over other UFA wingers, he fit too well with Crosby

111 votes

Work hard to fit Guerin in but not at the absolute alienation of re-signing Fedotenko and/or Sykora

435 votes

Look to re-sign Guerin, even if it may mean having to let current players go and fill the gaps in free agency

84 votes

Let Billy G go free if he's not willing to accept a big pay-cut (about $2 million)

375 votes

1005 votes | Poll has closed

The Pending (?) Lecavalier Trade

Cassie McClellan — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 23:22:41 -0000

More photos » by Ryan Remiorz - AP

8 months ago: Montreal Canadiens' Michael Komisarek, behind, is checked into the boards by Tampa Bay Lightning Vincent Lecavalier during third-period NHL hockey action in Montreal, Thursday, March 26, 2009. The Canadiens won the game 3-2 in overtime. (AP Photo/The Canadian Pree,Ryan Remiorz)

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It's interesting how the so-called "rumors" of Vincent Lecavalier being traded from January have slipped into a being a distinct possibility in April. Not just a possibility, but perhaps even a likelihood. And the fan outrage from January about it has faded into a peevish dissatisfaction.

I have to admit that if Vinny Lecavalier is at Tampa Bay Lightning training camp come September, I will be very surprised.

Let's be honest, through serious mismanagement, the Tampa Bay Lightning simply cannot afford him - despite having been the ones who negotiated that 11-year, $85 million contract extension with Lecavalier in the first place. They just laid off 20 people from the front office just yesterday. If you can't see the writing on the wall just with that, then I don't think I can penetrate the level of denial that you're living in.

If Lecavalier's lucky, they'll trade him before his contract extension kicks in July 1st. If he's really unlucky, he could be sitting out or playing hockey in Europe next season because they didn't trade him before July 1^st but instead tried to trade him afterwards.

To current team ownership, no-trade clauses mean absolutely nothing. They happily signed Dan Boyle to a contract with a no-trade clause last February, and still managed to move him by July. So even if they can't find a deal they like before that contract extension kicks in, they might try to force Vinny into allowing them to move him to another team, anyways - like they did with Boyle. And if Lecavalier gets stubborn about it and says no, then that could mean him sitting out or playing in another league. Or more.

The initial former head coach, John Tortorella, was furious with how he was fired. Boyle complained of being treated very badly when he was forced to waive his no-trade clause. Former GM Jay Feaster was ignored by ownership and management alike until he got the hint and quietly went away on his own. The former head coach after Tortorella, Barry Melrose, was unceremoniously canned after 16 games. Mark Recchi wasn't impressed with how he was treated when he was dealt to Boston. And I suspect that Gary Roberts was conveniently forced to retire in an equally unpleasant fashion, but is so far keeping quiet. Obviously, this ownership/management group already has something of an unsavory track record in how they deal with people they find to be expendable.

So if Lecavalier genuinely believes that they'll follow through with their promise to contact him, and/or his agent, before they start talking with other teams, then he's a wide-eyed optimist. They certainly didn't do that before they almost traded him to Montréal in January. And I seriously doubt that they'll do it before they actually do ship him off sometime this summer.

It could get really ugly, and really complicated, really fast. And it could end up involving a lot more than just a single player, his agent, and the GM. The worst case scenario could involve the players union, the league, the owners, and litigation. It just depends on how both sides deal with any of a number of scenarios.

So what are the facts that lead to the conclusion that Lecavalier is likely gone?

Dan Boyle signed a 6-year, $40 million contract with a no-trade clause 25 February 2008.
Steven Stamkos is drafted first overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft in Ottawa 20 June 2008.
Barry Melrose is hired as coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning 24 June 2008
Boyle is traded to San Jose with Brad Lukowich for Matt Carle, Ty Wishart, and two draft picks 04 July 2008.
Vincent Lecavalier signed an 11-year, $85 million contract 13 July 2008.
Melrose is fired 16 games into the season 15 November 2008. Rumors went around that Lecavalier was a reason why he was fired.
By 14 January 2009, while the team was in California, rumors are flying that there's a deal in the works between Tampa Bay and Montréal. Lightning GM Brian Lawton flatly denies the rumors that he has been shopping Lecavalier to Montréal.
Lecavalier goes to the All-Star Game in Montréal 25 January 2009 and holds court with all of the NHL's Canadian hockey media stating over and over again that he has no control over the situation.
18 February 2009, Montréal Canadiens' GM Bob Gainey reveals that negotiations with Tampa Bay for a Lecavalier trade were, in fact, going on in January.
Lecavalier's season ends early by having wrist surgery 03 April 2009.
Stamkos ends rookie season with 23 goals and an invite to Team Canada at the World Championships.
The Tampa Bay Lightning ends the 2008-2009 29th overall in the NHL, and is awarded the second overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft in Montréal.

(The bottom line is this: Lecavalier was expendable the moment they drafted a center (Stamkos) first overall in the 2008 draft. It was just a matter of when Stamkos would be ready to carry the team on his own. Since the ownership insisted early on that Stamkos stay and play in Tampa, instead of being sent back to juniors like he probably should've been, that was probably going to happen sooner rather than later in the eyes of the ownership. And that's not Stamkos's fault; that's just how the business side of hockey goes. The younger and cheaper player typically wins out over the older and more expensive player of a similar talent level.)

***

The fundamental problem with Lecavalier's contract situation is one simple fact - under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), players are not allowed to renegotiate standing contracts. Article 11, Section 11.10 of the NHL-NHLPA 2005 CBA states that "No Renegotiation. In no event shall a Club or a Player negotiate a change any terms of a Player SPC [Standard Player's Contract] for the then-current season or for any remaining season of an SPC."

I can understand why the NHLPA would want that little blurb in there, but it's a little shortsighted if you ask me. There should've been some amendment to that allowing renegotiation under certain extenuating circumstances. The economy notwithstanding. It helps the players in the short run, but not in the long run. In Lecavalier's situation, if allowed to renegotiate in the case where the contract is detrimental to the team due to economics (yes, I know - really poor management), and if the player is above a certain age and wants to stay since he has a vested interest in the community and has been with the same team for a certain length of time, then they should be able to do that.

I realize the NHLPA's argument against that is that the team should never have signed a player to a contract that they ultimately couldn't afford and the team ought to pay the penalty - even if it's at the detriment of the individual player. And it sets a bad precedent to allow a player to downgrade his contract in the overall scheme of the union. It's for the greater good of the union and the players overall and blah, blah, blah. But ultimately, shouldn't it be the other way around? Isn't the union supposed to represent the players and not the players represent the union?

I can't help but wonder if Lecavalier realizes just how much power he has in this situation. It'd be easy for a person in his position to feel powerless, but he's probably got the most power of anyone in this situation. For instance, he can beat the team to the punch and ask for a trade before the draft. Or, in the event that they try to force him to waive his no-trade clause after July 1st, he can refuse and cause all kinds of problems. Not just for the team, but for the NHL and/or the NHLPA. He could force a revamp the CBA all on his own, for good or ill. He doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who would do that, but there are all kinds of options there for him to do, or not do, as the case may be.

***

No one wants to see Lecavalier go - his coaches don't, his teammates don't, the fans don't, and Vinny himself doesn't, either. Whether the owners and management do or not is up for debate. But the fact is that he was as good as gone when they drafted Stamkos, traded Boyle, and signed Melrose last July - even before he signed that contract. It was just a matter of time is all. That was obvious to me at the time, although most people didn't seem to understand that.

Now it's a matter of where he'll end up. The most obvious choice is Montréal, but I don't know if that's likely. They definitely want him, but does he want them? And if it is open season on Lecavalier, and the entire league gets a shot at him, will the Canadiens be able to offer the best deal? Who needs a world-class center in his prime, who has the depth to get him, and who can afford his contract under the salary cap? I'm guessing that there are only a handful of teams that would be able to meet all of those criteria.

I haven't touched on whether or not Tampa Bay will get what they should for Lecavalier in a trade. The reason for that is what most people would agree would be a good deal is probably not what the Lightning will want. In January, the asking price seemed to be pretty high - or so the rumors went. However, I think that the asking price is going to drop significantly this summer for payroll reasons and due to time constraints. There's no way that the Lightning are going to be able to get what he's worth out of another team - even the generally agreed value and not the pie in the sky value they'd placed on him midway through the season. Other teams know that they have to get him off their payroll before July 1st, so other teams will work that to their advantage. I expect they'll end up trading him for almost nothing because of it. Relatively speaking, I mean.

Will Lecavalier stay? Will he go? And if he goes, where will he end up? Your guess is as good as mine. Right now, though, it looks as if he'll probably end up going. We'll see how it ends up. Eventually.

Poll

Where will Vincent Lecavalier start the 2009-10 season?

Tampa Bay

74 votes

Another team

244 votes

Europe

4 votes

Sitting out

4 votes

326 votes | Poll has closed

Scary Gary hangs them up

James Mirtle — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 18:43:47 -0000

Gary Roberts' NHL career is over.
Unclaimed on waivers on trade deadline day, the 42-year-old veteran will not play another game with the Tampa Bay Lightning this season. He had already announced that he would retire at the end of this season.

— Bob McKenzie, TSN.ca

A tough way for a great, great player to go out.

That Roberts is still playing at all this season, at age 42, is remarkable, and all the moreso if you consider that he originally retired due to injuries way back in 1996. He's played 11 seasons since that point, another 639 games, and had five 20-goal, 45-point campaigns.

In total, Roberts played 1,224 regular season games and had 438 goals and 909 points. He also took 14 trips to the playoffs, logging 130 games played and scoring 93 points. Roberts is 73rd in career games played, 60th in career goals (10th among active players), 88th in career points, 44th in career plus-minus, 18th in career PIMs and 38th in career even-strength goals.

He appeared in three all-star games and won the Masterton Trophy in 1995-96. Unfortunately, as McKenzie notes, he's a bit of a victim of a too generous contract the Lightning gave him in the off-season, and I wonder if someone would have claimed him on re-entry waivers if it would have come to that.

Roberts is one of only three NHLers to record 2,500 career PIMs and score more than 400 goals. The others are Pat Verbeek and current Lightning coach Rick Tocchet.

So long Scary Gary.

Poll

Is Gary Roberts a Hall of Famer?

Yes

259 votes

No

288 votes

547 votes | Poll has closed

Islanders Doppelblogger: Trade deadline hangover edition

Dominik — Thu, 05 Mar 2009 17:12:35 -0000

After staring at two screens all day yesterday -- while I was stuck "working," honest -- Islesblogger Mike fell into a wee bit of a post-trade deadline coma. (I assume Official's Outlook is there, too, given his marathon session.) Luckily, three cans of Islanders Havoc were enough to revive Mike so he could help me sift through the ashes of yesterday's massive trade for the Big. Fifth. Rounder!

What follows is our Blogger v. Blogger, post-deadline edition: Topics include Garth Snow, league moves, and who replaces Bill "McNulty" Guerin as next Islanders captain.

As always, you're encouraged to provide your own two cents in comments. (New readers, you can create a SBN user name or log in with your Yahoo! ID.)

Did Garth Snow get taken in the Guerin maneuvers?

Michael: I don't think he got taken, I think the original deal was better with the mystery team and Garth was limited as to where he could trade Guerin once that team backed out.

Dominik: True. With all the veterans clearing waivers (Enjoy retirement, Gary Roberts; sad to see it, Miro Satan), the market obviously was weak. Throw in Guerin's no-move clause, $4.5M cap hit and declining production, and I suspect Pittsburgh had all the leverage once the original suitor either balked or couldn't clear the cap room.

The only way Snow got taken is by forcing Islanders fans to root for Pittsburgh now. Very clever, Mr. Shero. Very clever indeed.

Could Snow have done anything different -- whether with Guerin or anyone else?

Michael: We can always assume he could have done things different from our perspective. However, the Islanders were labeled "sellers" but did not have much to sell in reality. He got a good return for Mike Comrie and Chris Campoli, unless Guerin was packaged with a prospect we wouldn't have seen higher than a third rounder.

Dominik: "Not much to sell" is a key point. Fans complain about the team being bad, then complain that those "bad" players aren't fetching prized picks from contenders. It doesn't add up. In the context of the Campoli pick and the Guerin one, Snow did fine. Whether it was right to ask too much for Brendan Witt, we'll only know this summer or in the coming years.

How disappointed were you at the lack of activity for the Islanders?

Michael: This is always a question I have a problem answering. As a fan I love the anticipation of deadline day, but I never want to see unnecessary moves for the sake of making moves. Going in my expectations were low so I wasn't disappointed.

Dominik: As a greedy fan, my adrenaline still rushes at the thought of Deadline Day movement. It's pathetic, I know, which is why the league can name its price and I'll still follow NHL events like a lapdog. I did hold out hope for one other Islanders move -- Hilbert? Weight? Witt? McAmmond? But in reality I know the demand wasn't there.

Olli Jokinen

#21 / Center / Calgary Flames

Height: 6-3

Weight: 215

Born: Dec 05, 1978

Around the league, who do you think helped themselves the most for this season?

Michael: Time will tell who improved the most, but the two most active teams should theoretically be better on paper. The Rangers got Morris and Antropov, so they got bigger and have more scoring. Let's not forget the re-addition of Avery... [Dominik edit: No really, let's try ...]

Calgary will certainly be more of a threat with Jokinen, but there is always a question about his character now that this is his third team in two seasons. He's also never seen the playoffs, so his team expects his performance to be the difference maker. I cannot really speak Leopold because I don't know much about him.

Dominik: Come on, bloggers are supposed to pretend like they know everything! Just make something up: "Leopold has good hands and knows the organization well."

I'm tempted to cite the Rangers as well. Obviously Calgary scored, but the Rangers were in a fix where they had to do something. I don't think Torts was enough to rescue them this late, with that roster. Antropov was sort of a wild card who could work out well for them (before crashing, like Zherdev). Worse, he's hard to hate, although I'm sure Rangers fans will find a way.

Who do you think helped themselves the most for the long-term (i.e. franchise management-wise, not necessarily this season)?

Michael: The teams who didn't make moves, i.e. Devils, San Jose, Detroit. Everyone else got UFA's - but Boston seems to have gotten a few players with time left. They are already a powerhouse in the east along with the Devils - so they are both teams to watch.

Dominik: "First, do no harm." The teams that didn't panic deserve credit. But Anaheim may have made the smartest moves. Battle of California's Sleek seems to be talking himself down after the shock of Sami Pahlsson's departure. Brian Burke left behind quite the UFA list and payroll crunch, and Bob Murray seems to have carefully set to work netting assets for those expiring contracts. Between yesterday and the Ryan Whitney move, I think he's just boosted Ducks' chances of being good again soon. Making painful choices is so important in the cap era.

Trent Hunter

#7 / Right Wing / New York Islanders

Height: 6-3

Weight: 210

Born: Jul 05, 1980

Who is the next Islanders captain?

Michael: I think we will see a few alternate captains the rest of the year - Park, Witt, Hunter and MacAmmond. Next year it will have to be the player who comes into the room and is a clear leader. I'd say Witt -- but possibly MacAmmond if he is extended.

Dominik: I agree that it's three 'A's for the rest of the year. But next season, I think it will be time to slap a 'C' on everyone's Trent Hunter replica sweaters.

-30-

Thoughts? Quibbles? Incriminating photos of Olli Jokinen? ... You know what to do.