SB Nation - Ryan Malone

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 36: at the New York Islanders

Cassie McClellan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:00:33 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 4-2.

The Lightning were down twice in this game before going ahead to win it. This was something they were unable to do two games ago against the Detroit Red Wings. A team decimated by injuries, one that they could’ve won, and they let that game slip away 3-0.

You could say that the team was on an emotional high from their previous win in St. Louis – this was first time that Bolts have won back to back games in regulation this season, I might add. You could also say that it was the benching of Jeff Halpern and Alex Tanguay that gave them that spark – except that they both played in that game in Detroit.

I think that it’s been a combination of Vincent Lecavalier being a little cranky and finally converting on some scoring chances but also Halpern playing with a mouth full of smashed teeth. This is the grit that Rick Tocchet has been trying to instill in his players. This is about being angry and doing something about it.

Not a single Lightning player played well for the entire game, except for perhaps Tanguay. Everyone had their good and bad moments - and there was lot more bad than good, frankly - but it was enough to get them over the hump and into the win column. Winning doesn't have to be pretty, it just has to happen.

Lecavalier did not have his best game. He did score, but he was horrible at faceoffs on the night. Not only that, he had a couple of unfortunate turnovers that thankfully didn't lead to anything. Luckily, he didn’t end up in the penalty box, as did so many other teammates of his during the game. All can be forgiven if Vinny scores, though, right? At least, that’s the common perception.

Vinny, by the way, now has nine goals on the season while Martin St. Louis has seven – though Marty does have 33 assists while Vinny only has 24.

Which leads us to another Lightning goal scorer, Steven Stamkos. He’s the golden boy because of his 21 goals on the season. But he’s really turning into a one-dimensional player. Defense is not his strong suit, and since he jammed his wrist in practice over a month ago, he’s been awful at faceoffs. So it’s good that he can score goals, since that seems to be all he’s able to do right now.

The man of the game was Ryan Malone. He scored two goals and assisted on the other two. Malone has been a very pleasant surprise this season. Sure, he has 18 goals, but he’s also leading the team in hits, and isn’t afraid to camp out in the slot area and the crease to chip in some ugly goals. Without Malone, this team wouldn’t be in the race for a playoffs spot. You could argue the same for Stamkos, but Malone brings a lot more to the team right now than just potting goals.

Tanguay, I felt, had a great game. He was shooting and making passes. All in all, I believe that that was probably one of his best games of the season. He had five shots on goal in this game - the most of any Lightning player on the ice - and his one assist on Lecavalier's goal gave him his 600-point milestone. Sure, he didn't score, but there's a lot more to hockey than scoring goals.

The puzzling part of this game was that Zenon Konopka was sat out due to some minor injuries. Tocchet doesn’t want him to play banged up, is the official explanation. But what I wonder is this: Why does Konopka get to sit out, but they’re good with playing Stamkos with a bum wrist? A wrist, I might add, that needed to have x-rays taken on it after a slash a few games ago. Not to mention Victor Hedman with a bruised foot, who was only sat out a game or two. Why does Konopka get a night off to heal while Stamkos and Hedman don’t?

The next game is at home against the Philadelphia Flyers on Wednesday, 23 December. Game time is 7:30 pm Eastern. If you’re going, don’t forget a Santa hat – it’s Christmas Eve Eve, after all.

Lightning vs Islanders coverage [SB Nation]

Lighthouse Hockey [SB Nation New York Islanders site]

Lightning vs Islanders recap [TSN]

Lightning vs Islanders boxscore [TSN]

Lightning 4, Islanders 2: For Tavares & friends, it's a slump

Dominik — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:55:42 -0000

Good news: Hey, the Islanders powerplay actually produced a goal! Bad news: The penalty kill gave up two. The Islanders played well 5-on-5, with Dwayne Roloson and his post bailing them out two critical times in the first period. But their special teams let them down again. In addition to the Lightning's two PP goals, their third goal was scored before the Isles could regroup after killing off one at the end of the 2nd period.

The Isles were booed off the ice at the end, and with results like these that's no surprise.

Final - 12.21.2009	1	2	3	Total
Tampa Bay Lightning	0	2	2	4
New York Islanders	1	1	0	2

Complete Coverage >

When I said before the game that if the Lightning play up to their talent level, it's their game to lose, that's what I meant. Both on the powerplay goals and in their fantastic 5-on-5 in the first period, Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier moved the puck -- with Ryan Malone twice doing the trenchwork finishing -- at a level the Islanders cannot match. Despite the Isles outshooting the Bolts 38-28, that talent spelled the difference.

We can probably call this John Tavares' first official slump at the NHL level. It's now five games without a point and six without a goal -- his longest of the season in both categories. Tonight he only got one shot on goal, plus two more that were blocked. His line looked far less dangerous than the Frans Nielsen line, something reflected in the balance of shots directed at the net on their shifts.

Still -- and not that he will reach the same heights expected of Stamkos -- but looking at Stamkos tonight and all season long tells you what a difference a year can make for a 19-year-old in the NHL.

[Bit more plus highlights and Roloson's crazy goal-line saves video after the jump.]

I would say it could be time to reunite the Moulson/Tavares/Okposo line to get them going, but Okposo with Bailey and Nielsen actually had some nice chemistry tonight. Their best shift created the Islanders' second goal which, ironically, was scored by Nate Thompson (?!) because those forwards had kept the puck in the Lightning end long enough to live through a line change.

Rob Scrhemp continues to work hard, but without much result. It's not that he's creating things that his linemates aren't converting -- he's just not creating much danger at 5-on-5, period. And of course, he's part of a powerplay unit that isn't posing much of a threat now either.

Roloson, Acrobat

But for now, enjoy Roloson's insane acrobatics on the goal line, which kept this a game for much longer than it otherwise would have been:

And for the rest of the game highlights, including some nifty goals by both sides (NATE THOMPSON?! and a nifty Hillen-Bailey-Hunter connection), ~~we'll add them later, but whenever they're posted you can find them here~~, here you go:

This road is getting rough, and not looking any easier in the days ahead.

Nashville Predators steamroll Tampa Bay 7-4

Dirk Hoag — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:40:12 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

8 days ago: Nashville Predators center Jerred Smithson, top, celebrates with David Legwand (11) after Smithson scored against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first period of an NHL hockey game on Tuesday, Dec. 15, 2009 in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Humphrey)

Browse more photos »

The Nashville Predators put on their biggest offensive display this season, rolling over the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4 after falling behind in the first period. Seven different Predators scored, and all but four skaters got at least one point on the evening as the Preds pushed their way into 5th position in the Western Conference.

Tonight marked the third time in the last 10 games that Nashville has won by a three-goal margin, after not doing so at all in the first 24.

Follow after the jump for the recap...

Please be patient, it may take a while for video to become available.

Nashville's shutdown line, tasked with defending the line of St. Louis, Stamkos and Malone, instead provided the opening goal for the Preds; Joel Ward put the initial shot on net, David Legwand carried the rebound around behind the net for a wrap-around attempt, and Jerred Smithson ended up stuffing home the loose puck for a 1-0 lead.

While the Predators carried most of the early play, Steve Stamkos got loose through center ice at top speed a few minutes later, and was able to carry the puck wide on Shea Weber, ultimately slipping the puck through Pekka Rinne's 5-hole to tie the game 1-1.

From there, the penalty bug bit the Preds again, as in recent games against Detroit and Columbus. First, Smithson retaliated with a cross-check on that landed him in the box, and while that penalty was still being killed off, Ryan Suter clipped Vincent Lecavalier with an unintentional high-stick. Nashville survived the 5-on-3 but just as it expired, a slapshot from Lecavalier made it 2-1 Tampa Bay.

Early in the second, the shutdown line came through again for Nashville, with Legwand stuffing home a rebound of Ward's initial shot just 1:25 in. Just a couple minutes later, Nick Spaling recorded his 1st career NHL point, as he earned an assist for carrying the puck with speed into the Tampa zone, putting Niittymaki down to the ice with a backhand attempt, leaving a loose puck for Ryan Jones to stuff home. Jones has now scored in three consecutive games.

Patric Hornqvist then scored to push the lead to 4-2, taking a loose puck off a faceoff and firing a quick wrister from between the circles, a goal which chased Niittymaki from the game. Mike Smith came on in relief, but lasted just 28 seconds before J.P. Dumont tipped a Hornqvist shot past him to make it 5-2. Fans in the arena didn't even have time to chant "We Want Frosties" before the key 5th goal was scored.

From there, things just got steadily worse for the Lightning; a fight broke out behind the play between Shea Weber and Steve Downie, with Weber getting the best of the scrap by far. Dan Hamhuis added a long goal to make it 6-2, and another fight between Kevin Klein and Stephane Veilleux failed to generate any momentum for Tampa Bay.

By the end of two periods, the Preds had scored 6 goals for only the second time all season, on only 16 shots!

Smithson got into his own scrap to start the 3rd period, taking a roughing minor in addition to fighting with Ryan Malone, who had been roughing him up along the boards. On the ensuing power play, Kurtis Foster scored on a long slapshot to make it 6-3. The Lightning then crept even closer with 7:40 left in the 3rd, as Lecavalier converted on a breakaway chance for his second goal of the night, making the score 6-4. Fans began to sense trouble, as a blowout appeared to take on a new competitive angle.

Martin Erat got back on the scoresheet to make it 7-4 with 6:13 left, though, extending a remarkable night where the Preds scored a ton of goals, but no player got more than two points or four shots; this was a whole-team effort.

Pekka Rinne turned aside 30 of 34 Lightning shots, a decent night but not particularly outstanding. In the post-game press conference, Trotz offered up that he thought Pekka was a little too active on a couple of the Tampa Bay goals, when a little patience would have served him better.

Given the number of fights in the game, it was somewhat surprising to see Wade Belak skate only two shifts in the third period. Trotz noted, however, that the Lightning came out in the 3rd with good speed and tried to push the pace. They were determined to try and make a game of it, and for a few minutes, came uncomfortably close to doing just that.

NHL Boxscore

Check back tomorrow morning for the advanced stats from tonight's game.

Poll

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Marcel Goc, 2 assists

8 votes

Patric Hornqvist, goal & assist

41 votes

David Legwand, goal & assist

22 votes

Jerred Smithson, goal & fight

17 votes

Joel Ward, 2 assists

4 votes

92 votes | Poll has closed

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 32: at the Chicago Blackhawks

Cassie McClellan — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 14:00:30 -0000

More photos » by John Smierciak - AP

Browse more photos »

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Chicago Blackhawks 4-0.

Despite the score, it wasn’t a bad game by the Lightning. And when I say "bad", I mean "awful". They did some good things, but weren’t lucky enough to convert anything.

Of course, they were out-shot – 29-18 in this instance. And the overall team faceoff winning percentage wasn’t that great at 44%. But they did get some scoring chances early on. And their penalty killing looked very good, especially with the two back-to-back five-on-threes that they had to kill off.

But the power play was ineffective, they took far too many undisciplined penalties, and the defense could play well everywhere but right in front of Antero Niittymaki.

And then there’s the lack of scoring.

The players were making the effort to score, however. Kurtis Foster had five shots, Martin St. Louis and Stephane Veilleux each had three shots, and Steven Stamkos with his bum wrist had two shots on goal. On the scorer’s sheet, the official tally for Vincent Lecavalier was only one shot on goal, but that doesn’t count the three attempted but blocked shots he had, and the two missed shots he took as well.

The problem with scoring is that they’re a perimeter team. The only player willing to consistently put himself in front of the net is Ryan Malone – which is why he has so many goals this season. No one else is willing to take the abuse required to camp out in front of the other team’s goalie. Everyone else is more than happy to stay to the outside and take those long shots that most goalies see coming from a mile away.

The problem with the defense is that the defensemen are jumping into plays and leaving the back end exposed to breakaways, while the forwards are playing too deep. No one’s setting up plays – they all just dive in and hope for the best. You can’t have that. You have to have some kind of on-ice structure spelled out and executed. Guys have got to play their positions at all times, not try to force scoring and therefore giving up their defensive positioning. Scoring is just half of the game.

The next game is at the Nashville Predators on Tuesday, 15 December, at 8 pm Eastern.

Lightning vs Blackhawks coverage [SB Nation]

Second City Hockey [SB Nation Chicago Blackhawk's site]

Lightning vs Blackhawks recap [TSN]

Lightning vs Blackhawks boxscore [TSN]

Poll

Should head coach Rick Tocchet be considered on the hot seat?

Yes

68 votes

No

43 votes

Don't know.

7 votes

118 votes | Poll has closed

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 31: at the Colorado Avalanche

Cassie McClellan — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 19:17:10 -0000

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Colorado Avalanche 2-1 in a shootout.

I've made no secret of the fact that I grew up on the West Coast. Colorado was one of my favorite teams, so it'll probably come as no surprise that I've seen quite a few Avalanche games on TV. And I have to say that, of all of the games that I've seen played in Colorado, this Lightning team was the most affected by the elevation change that I have ever seen.

It comes down to poor ice time management. Part of that were the coaches, but part of that were also the players. They were taking regular length shifts for much of the game, and you can't do that in Denver - and that was a coaching issue. Icing the puck without thinking and not clearing their own zone - that was the player issue. And it cost them the game because they were too tired by the third to really keep the lead.

This was a very winnable game for the Lightning. They were playing fairly well, few penalties were being called, and they were getting some great offensive chances. Vincent Lecavalier, Martin St. Louis, and Steve Downie played great together. In fact, they scored the only goal for the Lightning: Downie got the goal and Lecavalier and St. Louis the assists.

Despite not having played for three games, Antero Niittymaki looked very fresh and very on. The goal that he allowed by the Avs was more of a defensive breakdown than anything else. Which, again, came back to poor ice-time management - when you're tired you're not thinking as clearly as you perhaps should be. Even still, Niittymaki kept the team in the game, even in the third when Colorado had 18 shots for the period.

And why were Steven Stamkos and Ryan Malone even in this game? They'd both left the previous game with injuries and were listed as day-to-day. What would it have hurt had they sat this game out? Especially Stamkos, whose injury was bad enough to warrant a trip to the x-ray machine.

Give them some time to heal before you put them back into the line of fire - even if they say they're okay. You can't trust an athlete to give you an honest answer if you ask them if they're okay after going down. I should know; I've been there. They all lie so they can play. All. Of. Them. Even if they can't walk, they'll tell you that they're alright. Seriously.

Overall, it was the altitude that did them in. Which I found interesting, especially considering that Rick Tocchet was an assistant coach in Colorado for a while. You would think that he would have been more careful because of that. As you would've thought that Alex Tanguay - a long-time member of the Avalanche - would've warned his teammates. And maybe they did, but circumstances got the better of them. It's hard to say.

The next game is Sunday, 13 December, at the Chicago Blackhawks. Game time is 7 pm Eastern.

Lightning vs Avalanche coverage [SB Nation]

Mile High Hockey [SB Nation Colorado Avalanche site]

Lightning vs Avalanche recap [TSN]

Lightning vs Avalanche boxscore [TSN]

Alpine Lightning: Bolts at Colorado Avalanche preview (UPDATED)

John Fontana — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 17:19:27 -0000

WHERE: Pepsi Center, Denver, Colorado
WHEN: 9 PM EST
MEDIA: Sun Sports (cable), 620 WDAE (Radio)

The big failure of the recent six of nine games at home was the lack of points picked up in the standings by the Lightning. Nine games, five points picked up in the standings. 2-1-4.

That is not going to cut it if the Lightning are serious about making the playoffs this season.

In fact the Bolts have been lucky. The Florida Panthers are still behind them in the standings, but the Kitties are within striking distance of passing the Bolts... Well, if they stop taking out their own players... Still, it's the Bolts who are guilty of under-performing in most (if not all) areas of their game, and it will come back to haunt them unless things change.

Tonight's the second match-up between the Lightning and the Colorado Avalanche this season, and within the past two weeks at that. You might recall the Bolts being goose-egged by the Avs in Tampa at the end of November. The Avs are in the midst of a lengthy home stand, playing seven of eight at home. They opened that series up on Tuesday with a shutout loss to the Wild. They'll be looking to get back into the swing of things tonight.

From DDC at Mile High Hockey:

Meanwhile, the Avalanche are expected to get Craig Anderson back from a neck injury suffered in Florida. Anderson hasn't finished a game since...November 30th against the Lightning. Peter Budaj has been better-than-solid in Anderson's place (1.26 GAA, .956 Sv%), but that doesn't mean the Avalanche won't get a morale boost from the return of Anderson.

The Avalanche are converting 18.9% of their power play opportunities at current, that's good for 18th in the league. The Lightning, in contrast, are converting 18.3% of power play opportunities -- that puts them at 23rd in the NHL. Now factor in the potential that Ryan Malone (4 PP goals this season) and Steven Stamkos (7 PP goals) will be out tonight (as of this writing, this had not yet been determined) and the Bolts are likely at a bigger disadvantage with a man advantage. PP 18, 80.7 PK -15

And on the penalty kill? Colorado has an 80.7 kill-rate, good for 18th in the league. Tampa Bay? 77.5 (26th in the league), along with the second-lowest kill-rate on the road (71.4). Playing that weak a man-down means the Bolts need to be extra vigilant against taking stupid penalties. Members fo the Lightning blue-line have been the usual suspects for being penalizd, but RW Steve Downie has been guilty of playing more reckless as of late - and with his reputation, this only leads to refs all-too-willing to send Downie to the sin bin.

We'll post the starting lineup for the Lightning later in the day. If the trend over the past 9 games holds, the Lightning will likely start Mike Smith in net...

[Note by John Fontana, 12/11/09 3:03 PM EST ] We've got a general guess on the lines tonight. Matt Smaby will be in (his second game this season) as well as Kurtis Foster on defense. Antero Niittymaki will between teh pipes for the Lightning and it LOOKS like Ryan Malone will play. Lukas Krajicek will not play because of his status with the team.

Other Previews

Tampa Bay Lightning official team preview

TSN

Mile High Hockey

Friday links: Wishing for a home ice win tonight edition

averagejoe — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 11:00:24 -0000

It's Friday. I can't wait for this week to end.

Blues news

The Oilers vs. Blues tonight. Here's a preview. [CBS Sports]
Ty Conklin has done well as a backup. I'm not used to the Blues having a backup who doesn't make me cringe. [St. Louis Post-Dispatch]
The Oilers are trying to make history in St. Louis. [Toronto Sun]
Pascal Pelletier is pretty happy to get out of the of Syracuse and into the Blues orgnaization. Also, his eyes are very close together. [Peoria Journal Star]
From the good Dr. (drfrankentweed) comes a nice little article on the Eureka fury, Cam Janssen. [Duffer's Dabbles]

Hockey news

Thursday's results. [Yahoo! Sports]
In case you want to watch something while the Blues are on, here are Friday's games. [Yahoo! Sports]
Fenway Park is being set up to play hockey. Stanley Cup of Chowder has some videos of the set up. [Stanley Cup of Chowder]
Dominik only roots for teams that can't score goals. Outside of John Tavares and Matt Moulsan, the Islanders are having trouble putting the puck in the net. [Lighthouse Hockey]
Dan Cleary will be out for a month after hurting himself against the Blues. [TSN]
Steven Stamkos and Ryan Malone are both day-to-day. Gotta love the NHL injury rules. [TSN]
At 51, Slave Fetisov — one of the Russian Red Wings — will play for CSKA Moscow on Friday. And it's not a stunt. The team actually needs him. [TSN]
Pierre LeBrun wants to copy baseball and have Summer meetings for the NHL. [ESPN]

Other links

I'm pretty sure we have some House fans around here. I'm told this is the show in a nutshell. [Pic]

Video

I don't know if this video is supposed to be a commentary about how movie trailers are pointless, but all I can say is I'd see this movie.

Poor College Student has the weekend shift. Send him links at gametimelinks(at)gmail.com

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Upper / Lower body injuries - a full bodied scoring blow to the Lightning

John Fontana — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 19:42:19 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Steven Stamkos left Wednesday's game against the Edmonton Oilers with an upper body injury. He is listed as day-to-day. . (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Ryan Malone and Steven Stamkos are listed as day-to-day with the Lightning after leaving Wednesday night's game with injuries. Malone and Stamkos' injuries were generalized in the ambiguous declarations of "lower body injury" (Malone) and "upper body injury" (Stamkos).

Both players will be with the team in Denver for the Bolts next game against the Avalanche on Friday Night.

While some may panic at the idea the Lightning's two leading scorers are (potentially) out of action for Friday, this becomes the perfect opportunity for other members of the Lightning to step up.

Though it's been suggested the Lightning may make a recall from Norfolk to cover the potential roster deficits, they have the men on-hand to cover the staff loses of Malone and Stamkos: Todd Fedoruk and Kurtis Foster should both start at forward.

Of course, if the injuries are more serious than the day-to-day status (and the health assessment reported by Damian Cristodero at the Times suggested a call up is still likely), then there will indeed be a need for a roster move or two as insurance.

As it stands though, the Bolts may be hurting but their hand has not been forced to make a roster move... Yet.

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 30: versus the Edmonton Oilers

Cassie McClellan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 14:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Browse more photos »

The Tampa Bay Lightning lost to the Edmonton Oilers 3-2.

On a night where the team lost its two top goal scorers, Ryan Malone and Steven Stamkos (both with unknown injuries at the time of publishing), for who knows how long, the Tampa Bay Lightning found something perhaps even more important: their pride.

Tocchet finally put Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis back together – and not just for the power play. On their first shift, Vinny set up Marty with a beautiful pass, and Marty put it home to put the Lightning up 1-0. The only questions that remain are these – why didn’t they get put together far sooner than December, and how long will they play together for? Tocchet likes mixing up lines constantly and is not apparently a patient man. So I wouldn’t expect them to stay together if they go a couple of games without a goal between them.

It was one of the better nights for both players. They were both flying. I think that psychological boost they got from it boosted up the rest of the team as well. When your leaders are happy and playing well, then the rest of the team tends to play well.

Vinny had an outrageous faceoff winning percentage for the game, too. He won 20-9, which is a 69% winning percentage. Zenon Konopka’s winning percentage was better – he won 4-1 (80%) – but he didn’t take anywhere near the number of faceoffs that Vinny did. As a side note, Stamkos has not done very well in the faceoff circle for the past couple of weeks.

Victor Hedman scored his second goal in three games, which is fantastic for a defenseman. He’s been joining the rush more – while not putting the team in jeopardy defensively – and putting in shots. He’s still having some problems with turnovers in the neutral zone, but he’s playing pretty well otherwise. Last season with Modo in the SEL, he scored seven goals in 43 games, so he’s capable of becoming more of an offensive defenseman. I’m not sure he’ll ever become a Mike Green or a Dan Boyle, however. He did have five shots on goal for the game, however.

The second period was sloppy and not played very well. Had the Lightning played the second like they’d played the other two periods of this game, they probably would’ve won it. But they let Edmonton back in with a couple of goals in the second period.

So even if they did lose their top two goal scorers, they found their top players were playing well - together.

Next game is Friday, 11 December, at the Colorado Avalanche. Game time is 9 pm Eastern.

The Copper & Blue [SB Nation Edmonton Oilers site]

Oilers vs Lightning coverage [SB Nation]

Oilers vs Lightning recap [TSN]

Oilers vs Lightning boxscore [TSN]

SB Nation - Ryan Malone

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 36: at the New York Islanders

Lightning 4, Islanders 2: For Tavares & friends, it's a slump

Roloson, Acrobat

Nashville Predators steamroll Tampa Bay 7-4

Who is your Predator of the Game?

Marcel Goc, 2 assists

Patric Hornqvist, goal & assist

David Legwand, goal & assist

Jerred Smithson, goal & fight

Joel Ward, 2 assists

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 32: at the Chicago Blackhawks

Should head coach Rick Tocchet be considered on the hot seat?

Yes

No

Don't know.

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 31: at the Colorado Avalanche

Alpine Lightning: Bolts at Colorado Avalanche preview (UPDATED)

Tampa Bay Lightning Projected Lines

Forward Lines:

Defense:

Other Previews

Friday links: Wishing for a home ice win tonight edition

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Upper / Lower body injuries - a full bodied scoring blow to the Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 30: versus the Edmonton Oilers