SB Nation - Shawn Horcoff

Oilers Top 25 Under 25 - #6 Sam Gagner

dawgbone98 — Sun, 05 Aug 2012 18:21:41 -0000

Sam Gagner is either being run out of town or he’s tying a franchise record for points in a single game. He’s either a quality 2nd line centre or he’s too small to make it as one. In reality, when Gagner plays with competent line mates (something he hasn’t always had), he is a very good player. He’s never going to be a big, scoring C who can dominate physically, but what he will be is a good puck handler who can find open players and isn’t scared to go into the dangerous areas. If people can accept what he is, rather than clamour for what he isn’t, the fan base can concentrate their fury on what’s really hurting this team.

Sam Gagner had a very up and down 2011-12 season. He suffered an ankle sprain in training camp which forced him to miss the first 6 games of the regular season, during which time the Oilers (and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) got off to a hot start. Gagner bounced all over the lineup and just couldn’t produce offensively, putting up just 2 assists in his first 13 games. It’s not like Gagner was invisible though. He put up 28 shots in 13 games (2.15), which was slightly above his career average of 2.04. The puck simply wasn’t going in for young Samwise. Conversely, Gagner had the benefit of the percentages for a few magical weeks later on in the year to make up for it. From January 31st to February 21st, Gagner put up 20 points (9 goals) in 12 games, lead by the 8 spot against Chicago, while also firing 38 shots on net. Most of this happened when Gagner took Ryan Nugent-Hopkins spot in the lineup, playing soft minutes between Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. Once Nugent-Hopkins returned, Gagner was once again looking for quality line mates and he limped to the end of the season with just 7 points and 37 shots on goal in his last 23 games.

Rank	Player	DOB	Drafted	Year	Alan	Ben	Bruce	DB	Derek	Jon	Ryan	Scott
6	Sam Gagner	08-10-1989	6	2007	6	5	5	5	5	6	6	5

Previous Rank: #4

Gagner falls 2 spots in the top 25, partially due to another 1st overall pick and partially due to a player who took a giant step forward last year. He was ranked either 5th or 6th by everyone on the panel, which is darn near consensus at this point.

Nothing much has changed for Gagner since Derek Zona’s piece on him last time around. He puts up results when he plays with good players, and good players tend to do pretty darn good when Gagner plays with them. The addition of Yakupov at the draft means that Nugent-Hopkins, Gagner and Shawn Horcoff will all play with a quality RW, which should help all 3 of them this year.

Aside from quality of teammates, one thing that has hurt Gagner has been, well, being hurt.

The previous 2 years Gagner saw his season cut short by injuries. Both years Gagner was in position to see a significant increase in ice time and responsibilities to close out the year and both times he missed out on the opportunity. The start of 2011-12 saw him in a fight for PP ice time that he ended up losing before he could even compete. He was hurt and the Oilers PP got off to a hot start and he was stuck on the 2nd unit for most of the season. It’s not like Gagner has been blowing his opportunities, he’s just been unfortunate in that he keeps missing them.

Being in the NHL at 18 has really done nothing for Gagner but put some unrealistic expectations on his shoulders. Had he been properly brought along (maybe another year in junior), we wouldn’t be talking about having to be patient with a guy going into his 6th NHL season. We would be talking about being patient with a 23 year old who has shown some pretty good things so far in his NHL career. It wasn’t his fault the Oilers rushed him, and it wasn’t his fault his line saw some incredible puck luck near the end of his first season that made everyone stand up and take notice. Gagner has shown that he can play with good players in tough situations, the Oilers just need to find him good players.

Mitigating Risk in Advance of the 2012/13 Season

Alan Hull — Tue, 10 Jul 2012 12:30:04 -0000

In my last post, we established the type of risks that have plagued the Edmonton Oilers in recent seasons and examined Management's inability to properly plan for these occurrences. In part two of my look at the roster decisions made by the current leadership of the Oilers, we will take a look at where things stand with the team as of today to see what risks (or threats) we may be able to identify and if there are any clearly visible solutions to those issues that should be taken prior to the start of the season in order to minimize the impact of those risks should they occur.

Listed below are the four threats I have identified with the Oilers' roster as of today that carry a level of risk that I would not be comfortable with heading into training camp and the corresponding opportunities available to help address the issues before they happen.

Risk #1 - The Health Issues of Ryan Whitney

This is essentially a mirror image of last year's off-season with Cam Barker, although the situation is admittedly less dire than it was a season ago. Right now, with the acquisition of Justin Schultz, the team's top six heading into camp as it stands today are Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Whitney, Nick Schultz, J. Schultz and Andy Sutton. While Sutton actually did about everything that could have been asked of him last season , depending on a now 37 year old career bottom-pairing defenseman to be part of your every day line-up is a fairly risky move. Even more risky however is depending on Ryan Whitney to return to form this coming season. When healthy, Ryan Whitney has shown some sublime abilities during his time in Edmonton; his first pass is tremendous. However, since the 35 game mark of the 2010/11 season when Whitney was injured, he as never been able to regain that form and has been a decidedly less effective player on the occasions he has been in the line-up.

There is a case made by some that Whitney was still re-habbing his ankle last summer and wasn't fully healthy when the season began, which meant he was basically playing catch-up all year. Fair enough. However, If you were the GM of the Oilers would you really be willing to stake another entire season of their fans' money and patience, not to mention sacrifice a year of the careers of your young stars based on the hope (and be clear, it is nothing more than hope) that Whitney can regain his previous form? Can Management consider themselves to be doing "everything possible to improve their team" if they are not at least considering the possibility that they may have to live without an effective Ryan Whitney again next season?

Corresponding Opportunity: While the UFA market this summer left a lot to be desired, the team is in an enviable position to target specific players via trade that they feel could help them get back into the playoffs next year. Players like Andrej Sekera in Buffalo, or any one of a dozen or more other examples that have been named in recent weeks.

Were a GM thinking about the upcoming season and attempting to assemble a roster that would "Leave No Doubt" (as I discussed in part one of this piece) that they are at least serious contenders for a playoff spot, if not favoured to finish in the top 8, I would think they would be looking to add at least one and possibly two more proven NHL Dmen through trade or otherwise. By creating a depth chart where Ryan Whitney is slotted in at #6 or #7 due to his uncertain health, the team creates a scenario where the risk of injury has been sufficiently accounted for and the possibility of a return to form by Whitney would deliver an unanticipated boost to the team's blueline, only furthering their quest to return to the post-season. Doing anything less than that creates a high level of vulnerability on the back end should things go awry in 2012/13.

Risk #2 - The Potential for a "contract amnesty" in the new CBA

With the CBA set to expire prior to the start of training camp, there have been numerous mentions of the possibility of a contract amnesty which would allow teams to purge themselves of at least one undesirable contract before the start of next season without incurring any cap penalties. In the case of the Oilers, this would most certainly be worth considering with regards to their Captain, Shawn Horcoff. His deal of 3 more seasons at $5.5 Million per year on the cap is tough to swallow and will become increasing unpalatable as the entry-level deals of Hall, Eberle and RNH begin to expire.

Were the contract amnesty to come to pass, the team is currently not in a position to be able to safely say goodbye to Horcoff without seriously damaging their prospects for the upcoming season. While this clause is nothing more than a hypothetical possibility at this time, the addition of another centre for added depth would not be a bad thing even if Horcoff does stay an Oiler (as Scott Reynolds discussed here recently), but should he be bought out, an additional experienced NHL centre would be an absolute necessity.

Corresponding Opportunity: The opportunity here lies in the chance to be pro-active and attempt to foresee a potential opportunity before it arises so that you are prepared to take advantage of it when given the chance. Not taking the proper actions in advance would likely make this move a difficult one to justify, and if it were done without the proper forethought, it could lead to a large step backwards in the team's depth down the middle. Forwards such as Jay McClement were available at the start of the UFA season, but a guy like Dominic Moore is still out there and would be perfect insurance for the possibility of a contract amnesty in the new CBA.

Risk #3 - Lack of proven NHL depth on the LW.

The Oilers' depth chart as it stands right now for 2012/13 consists of Taylor Hall, Ryan Smyth and Ben Eager. While very few people talk about it, there is significant reason to believe that given the late date that Hall had his shoulder surgery last season, there is a chance that he may not be fully recovered by the start of the season, or at least not in top form. There is certainly a reasonable chance that Teemu Hartikainen and/or Magnus Paajarvi can fill one of those slots for the coming season, but rather than bank on the performance of two players who spent significant time in the AHL last season, wouldn't a more prudent course of action be to acquire a proven NHL player and make those young players earn their role on the team rather than being awarded it through a sheer lack of alternatives? Again the willingness of Management to leave openings on the roster for unproven players in the hope that they are ready to step up and fill that role creates a certain level of risk that I would not be comfortable with.

In a worst case scenario, acquiring another winger on the UFA market would only further enhance the team's ability to make use of their depth at forward to make a trade which will improve their NHL blueline depth. To demonstrate the risk in this decision, in the event that either Hall is not ready to start the season, and/or Hartkainen and Paajarvi prove to still need additional developmental time in OKC, the team would be relying on both Ben Eager and Lennart Petrell among their top 4 options on the left side, both of whom struggled greatly at even strength last season. For a team with playoff aspirations, that is not good enough.

Corresponding Opportunity: This issue could potentially be addressed by acquiring a centre as suggested above and moving Shawn Horcoff to the wing if he remains, but with the availability of inexpensive, proven players such as Daniel Winnik on the UFA market, it is a mistake not to explore the interest he (or other comparables) may have in playing in Edmonton.

Risk #4 - Potential of injury to Devan Dubnyk

Finally we get to Nikolai Khabibulin. I intentionally omitted his situation from part one of this article, but I could easily have used him as an example of previous misjudgements and risks that were left unaddressed on two separate occassions (following both the 09/10 and 10/11 seasons). Instead, I have chosen to consolidate the entirety of his awfulness into an examination of the current scenario facing Tambellini & Co.

Following a 9-game stretch at the start of last season where Khabibulin played perhaps his best hockey in the last five years, his level of play plummeted back to the depths of the NHLs lowest rated goaltenders. After three disappointing seasons and with one year left on his deal, the fact that he still has a back-up job in Edmonton is frankly astounding.

Once again this off-season is bringing about a renewed sense of hope for Oiler fans that next year will be better, and with the return of Ryan Smyth, and additions of J. Schultz and Nail Yakupov, their reason for optimism is somewhat understandable. However, even if all else goes exactly according to plan, if Devan Dubnyk suffers any kind of injury that results in a prolonged absence from the lineup, it is conceivable that the team's entire season could be lost.

With a multitude of back-up options on the market on July 1st, the team re-signed Yann Danis to mentor Olivier Roy in the AHL, but did nothing to address the need for additional depth in Edmonton. Given all evidence suggests that the current trend of poor performance from Khabibulin is likely to continue, the lack of a second capable NHL goalie to support Dubnyk is a risk roughly equivalent to asking a toddler to juggle a set of flaming knives.

Corresponding Opportunity: Acquire an additional NHL back-up and buy out the remaining year of Khabibulin's contract.

Looking back over the examples from previous seasons as well as the challenges which have gone unaddressed to date this summer, I have seen enough to believe that the trend is indicative of a flawed approach to the project of building the Oilers' NHL roster.

A willingness to begin an NHL season with either a lack of depth at a given position, or a lack of sufficient contingencies to account for easily foreseeable issues that may arise over the course of 82 games has become a calling card of Steve Tambellini's tenure as General Manager of the Edmonton Oilers. If another season is lost due to a lack of sufficient planning and forethought from the front office, then for this reason alone, there would be substantial justification for a new regime to guide the team through future off-seasons...of that...there is no doubt.

How Is A "Rebuild" Defined?

Derek Zona — Mon, 09 Jul 2012 19:40:40 -0000

Josh L's recent article about the Dallas Stars' makeover has touched off an interesting debate between my esteemed colleague Mr. Reynolds and Josh. In it, Josh posits that the Stars have rebuilt their team and franchise, much like the Oilers have, but that the Stars have done it without tanking and finishing last repeatedly, as the Oilers have. His take:

"The Dallas Stars have been in a weird state of limbo for four years now. They've been one of those tweener mediocre teams since their last playoff berth after a decade of sustained success. Those teams generally have two directions they can go to get their franchises back on track. They can either tank and rack up the lottery picks or rebuild on the fly.

I used to lean towards the tankers. The closest thing I ever came to witnessing a full rebuild firsthand was the Stars dropping into the bottom five to draft Ric Jackman in 1996, and he had absolutely nothing to do with the immediate transformation of the franchise the following year. Needless to say, my thoughts on the topic weren't fully vetted."

Scott took issue with this:

"I am having a bit of trouble seeing this as rebuilding though. Or at least, I'm having trouble seeing how this "rebuilding" differs from what any good team tries to do.

So, aside from a change in ownership, are there any similarities between the two teams?

Let's go back to 2006-07, when the Edmonton truly began:

Edmonton Oilers
2006-07		2011-12
C	Horcoff	C	Horcoff
C	Nedved	C	Gagner
C	Stoll	C	Nugent-Hopkins
C	Reasoner	C	Belanger
F	Winchester	F	Hall
F	Sykora	F	Eberle
F	Pisani	F	Smyth
F	Lupul	F	Yakupov
F	Torres	F	Jones
F	Hemsky	F	Hemsky
F	Petersen	F	Eager
F	Thoresen	F	Petrell
D	Smith	D	Petry
D	Smid	D	Smid
D	Greene	D	Schultz
D	Staios	D	Whitney
D	Tjarnqvist	D	Schultz
D	Hejda	D	Sutton
G	Roloson	G	Khabubilin
G	Markkanen	G	Dubnyk

Three players that pre-rebuild roster remain on the post-rebuild roster. How does that compare to the Dallas Stars?

Dallas Stars
2006-07		2011-12
C	Modano	C	Benn
C	Halpern	C	Roy
C	Ribeiro	C	Fiddler
C	Barnes	C	Wandell
F	Lehtinen	F	Ryder
F	Nagy	F	Jagr
F	Hagman	F	Whitney
F	Jokinen	F	Vincour
F	Miettinen	F	Eakin
F	Eriksson	F	Eriksson
F	Morrow	F	Morrow
F	Lindros	F	Petersen
D	Zubov	D	Goligoski
D	Boucher	D	Fistric
D	Norstrom	D	Rome
D	Sydor	D	Larsen
D	Daley	D	Daley
D	Robidas	D	Robidas
G	Turco	G	Lehtonen
G	Smith	G

Though the Stars would play in the Western Conference finals in 2007-08, just four players remain from that 2006-07 team.

Maybe you're an Oilers fan and don't believe the rebuild started when Ryan Smyth was traded. Maybe you believe it started when the Oilers spent to the cap and finished last in the league. And maybe it's not fair to compare the Stars' 06-07 roster because they did make the final four just a year later. Let's compare the two rosters from the end of 2009-10:

Edmonton Oilers
2009-10		2011-12
C	Horcoff	C	Horcoff
C	Gagner	C	Gagner
C	Cogliano	C	Nugent-Hopkins
C	Potulny	C	Belanger
F	Penner	F	Hall
F	O'Sullivan	F	Eberle
F	Penner	F	Smyth
F	Moreau	F	Yakupov
F	Jones	F	Jones
F	Hemsky	F	Hemsky
F	Brule	F	Eager
F	Nilsson	F	Petrell
D	Gilbert	D	Petry
D	Smid	D	Smid
D	Souray	D	Schultz
D	Whitney	D	Whitney
D	Strudwick	D	Schultz
D	Chorney	D	Sutton
G	Khabubilin	G	Khabubilin
G	Deslauriers	G	Dubnyk

Seven players remain. This could be eight players as Devan Dubnyk was certainly part of the Oilers goaltending future at the end of that season. Those seven/eight players include five top-of-the-roster forwards and defensemen (Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, Ladislav Smid, Ryan Whitney).

Dallas Stars
2009-10		2011-12
C	Benn	C	Benn
C	Richards	C	Roy
C	Ribeiro	C	Fiddler
C	Wandell	C	Wandell
F	Lehtinen	F	Ryder
F	Neal	F	Jagr
F	Modano	F	Whitney
F	Ott	F	Vincour
F	Brunnstrom	F	Eakin
F	Eriksson	F	Eriksson
F	Morrow	F	Morrow
F	Petersen	F	Petersen
D	Skrastins	D	Goligoski
D	Fistric	D	Fistric
D	Grossman	D	Rome
D	Niskanen	D	Larsen
D	Daley	D	Daley
D	Robidas	D	Robidas
G	Turco	G
G	Lehtonen	G	Lehtonen

Nine players remain, and of those nine, five are top-of-the-roster forwards and defensemen (Jamie Benn, Loui Eriksson, Brenden Morrow, Trevor Daley, Stephane Robidas).

So while the Stars have certainly "been one of those tweener mediocre teams since their last playoff berth after a decade of sustained success." and haven't gone to the bottom of the barrel like the Oilers, the Stars have rebuilt just as much of their team as the Oilers have over both distinct time frames.

Oilers Trade Values

Derek Zona — Fri, 06 Jul 2012 17:39:21 -0000

Every time a writer here, or a semi-sane person on Twitter suggests trading anything other than spare parts to fill the defensive hole on the Oilers back end, the response is one of yowls and yips. Though a few responses do give in a "let's see who the worst of the four forwards is and trade him" way, fans on the whole believe their players are more valuable than almost any trade target. There's literally nothing some fans would trade Jordan Eberle for - not even Drew Doughty.

So curiosity got the best of me. I'm interested in the estimated value of the Oilers' players and prospects. After the jump, I'll ask for minimum returns for all of them.

Here's the list of contracts on the reserve list, meticulously tracked by Scott, from our front page.

Forwards

Shawn Horcoff
Aleš Hemský
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Taylor Hall
Sam Gagner
Ryan Smyth
Éric Bélanger
Magnus Pääjärvi
Ryan Jones
Jordan Eberle
Ben Eager
Teemu Hartikainen
Darcy Hordichuk
Lennart Petrell
Anton Lander
Linus Omark
Tanner House
Tyler Pitlick
Curtis Hamilton
Ryan Martindale
Mark Arcobello
Chris VandeVelde
Toni Rajala
Philippe Cornet
Antti Tyrväinen
Dane Byers
Cameron Abney
Kristians Pelšs
Nail Yakupov *

Defenders

Ryan Whitney
Justin Schultz
Nick Schultz
Ladislav Šmid
Andy Sutton
Corey Potter
Jeff Petry
Theo Peckham
Oscar Klefbom *
David Musil *
Taylor Fedun
Martin Marincin
Alex Plante
Colten Teubert
Brandon Davidson

Goalies

Nikolai Khabibulin
Devan Dubnyk
Yann Danis
Olivier Roy
Tyler Bunz

* May not count toward 50-Man Reserve List for 2012-13 Season.

I've added Nail Yakupov to the list.

What I'm looking for is a player-by-player account of the bare minimum readers are willing to take for each player. Feel free to copy and paste the whole list into a comment, or just zero in on specific players.

NHL Trade Match Maker 2012: Dallas Stars And Jordan Staal

Josh Lile — Thu, 14 Jun 2012 15:00:16 -0000

The Dallas Stars are going to be looking to the trade market to make improvements. This series of posts is going to focus on potential Stars targets to identify who, if any, of the big names are good fits in Dallas. If you have any specific requests send a Tweet my way @JoshL1220.

Jordan Staal is a good center. The Stars need good centers. The Penguins have three good centers, and two already make huge money. This string of thoughts leads many to believe that the Stars and Penguins are a match for another trade in the not too distant future.

The question of whether or not the Stars would pursue Staal if he were to be available is silly. Of course they would. The questions are whether or not they could actually pull it off at a reasonable enough price to justify the risk of Staal leaving after the 2013 season, and if he will even become available in the first place.

Follow the jump for 700 more words of wild eyed speculation.

What Is Jordan Staal?

Jordan Staal is a horse. He is the Penguins third line center. He is not a third line center. Staal is a first line elite talent playing on the Penguins third line because two of the three best centers in the league are ahead of him on the depth chart. Both he and Sidney Crosby are unrestricted free agents after the 2013 season so speculation has begun that Staal could be on the way out.

Maybe he is. I don't know. What I do know is that Jordan Staal is probably the most underrated player in the league. Without Staal the Penguins aren't the Penguins. They're still really good, but Staal is an integral piece of what makes the Penguins successful. The presence of Jordan Staal allows the more offensively oriented Evgeni Malkin and Crosby to get gobs of offensive zone ice time. Staal plays some of the most difficult minutes in the entire league and still dominates.

Only nine players in the NHL faced a higher quality of competition than Staal in 2012. The Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Joe Pavelski line did. The Olli Jokinen, Curtis Glencross, and Jarome Iginla trio did. Martin Erat and Mike Fisher in Nashville did. Shawn Horcoff in Edmonton also did. That's it. Only the Thornton line performed as well as Jordan Staal, and they started significantly more of their shifts in the offensive zone than Staal did. The man is a horse.

Lest you think Staal is only good defensively, he also has a career 248 points in 431 games. The raw total isn't the most impressive number in the world, but you have to keep in mind the depth the Penguins have. He's been getting second unit powerplay minute totals for his entire career. He would be on the top unit for every other team in the NHL. He was 45th in the NHL among all forwards in even strength scoring despite playing the tough minutes for the Penguins with third line wingers. For a little bit more context he scored at a higher rate at even strength last year than Anze Kopitar and Daniel Sedin.

It's obviously subjective, but you could make a decent case that Staal is also among the top ten centers in the NHL along with his two more heralded teammates.

The Problems

Is he even available? There have been rumblings in the media that he could be once the Penguins sign Crosby to an extension. There are two sides to the "Jordan Staal availability coin" though. First, why would the Penguins willingly make him available even if they sign Crosby?

As I showed above, Staal is a critical piece for the Penguins. He's looking at a raise to six million a year or so which would give the Penguins four forwards making about 30 million. Under the current CBA the cap is going to be approaching 70 million dollars for 2013. They could very easily fill the rest of the roster out with a 70 million dollar cap, and still keep the structure of the team in tact. If the cap does get lowered they would be in trouble.

The other side of the argument is Jordan Staal himself. He's an elite talent playing a third line role (albeit with expanded minutes compared to the normal third liner). He's one year away from dictating exactly where he wants to play, what kind of role he wants, and working towards establishing a legacy of his own. Is it out of the question to think he might want to establish a legacy of his own? He hasn't made any statements that I'm aware of to suggest this is the case, but it's worth considering.

Unfortunately the free agency angle that could potentially make him available also makes acquiring him a huge risk for the Stars. Would he want to be here? The Stars being in a transition period might not be the ideal landing spot for a player of his caliber. He isn't going to be cheap to acquire via trade, but his pending free agency combined with the Stars being in a transitional period adds up to a poor fit for the Penguins should they try to maximize his value in trade.

The Cost

Who knows? Players of his caliber rarely come available, and if they do they have giant contracts to consider (Mike Richards and Jeff Carter). Staal is about to get his, but it will unquestionably be shorter. His pending free agency is likely to lower the price also. Given the Penguins standing in the East they're likely to ask for some current roster help in return. The Penguins have been trying to find wingers for years.

Baseless Speculation

The Penguins are a fit talent-wise for a trade with the Stars. Someone like Steve Ott could slide in on the third line for Pittsburgh to take the tough defensive minutes. The Stars have plenty of prospects on the wing, highlighted by Reilly Smith, Alex Chiasson, Matej Stransky, Scott Glennie, Austin Smith, and Tomas Vincour.

Does a package of Steve Ott, Reilly Smith, and a 2nd round pick get the Penguins talking for a year of control of Jordan Staal? It might, and it also might be of no interest to the Penguins at all.You can bet the Stars will ask about his availability one way or the other though (if they haven't already). The only thing we know for sure is that It's going to take a lot for any team to acquire Staal if he becomes available. If the Stars are fortunate enough to make it happen the cost is going to be painful.

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Poll

Do the Stars have a chance of acquiring Jordan Staal?

Yes, and they need to. He's perfect.

69 votes

Yes, but they need to be careful. They can't afford to take too big of a risk.

122 votes

No, the Penguins aren't going to trade him.

80 votes

No, the Stars can't put together a good enough package to get him.

108 votes

379 votes | Poll has closed

Play it Safe, or Gamble? Ryan Murray vs. The Other Guys

Mike MacLean — Fri, 08 Jun 2012 13:00:54 -0000

It's become the go-to statement among fans and followers of the Blue Jackets: If the Jackets didn't have bad luck, they wouldn't have any luck at all.

So naturally when the Jackets finished the regular season as the worst team by a country mile, therefore giving them the best chance at picking first overall at the entry draft, Lady (Bad) Luck struck- allowing the Oilers to win the draft lottery, forcing Columbus to the second overall slot in the first round.

This created an interesting scenario.

If any of the other 29 NHL clubs was picking first overall, the focus would be on winger Nail Yakupov going first overall. He's a game breaker, and has the attitude and commitment that is required of a Russian prospect. He will likely be a contributor for the team that drafts him next season.

The thing about the Oilers however, is that they are chock full of great young forwards. This year's draft marks the third season in a row that the Oilers have been first on the podium. Last year, they took high-scoring Ryan Nugent-Hopkins first overall. The year before that, they took Taylor Hall with the top pick. Let's not forget the player who may be the best of them all- Jordan Eberle, taken 22nd overall in 2008. You can't forget about Alex Hemsky and his new deal, not to mention Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff and Ryan Jones. If Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson can get things figured it, add him to the list.

Some folks out there say never draft for need, always take the best player available. Some teams adhere to that philsophy, while most will take the best player that fits the team, period. You'd be crazy to think that positional consideration isn't part of the drafting process.

The Oilers need a defenseman. The lack of talent in the organization at that position is staggering. Edmonton is far from a free-agent haven, so the best way to add to the organization's biggest need is via the entry draft. Given that, it makes sense for them to draft a defenseman with their top pick. If they add another forward to the stable in Yakupov, the black hole on defense still exists. Trading one of the top young forwards down the line is easier said than done. Equally as difficult will be signing them all to new deals after their entry-level contracts expire.

The Oilers should draft Ryan Murray with the first overall choice.

If everything that I just mentioned takes place, and the Oilers take Murray, discussion over- the Jackets draft Yakupov.

The thing is, if the Oilers decide to draft a blueliner, they'll likely trade the pick to a team that covets Yakupov. They know that Murray or another high-end defender is available a few picks down the line. Or, they could just take Yakupov, positional weakness be damned.

Either way, that would put the Jackets on the clock, with Yakupov off the board.

The Jackets then have a decision to make, do they take Ryan Murray with the second overall pick, or do they take one of the other high-ranking forwards or defensemen? Or hell, do they take Malcolm Subban?

Given the Jackets draft woes since expansion, you have to think they are going in a little gunshy. They don't want to screw this pick up. They've screwed the pooch on too many high picks to blow this one. Murray is known as the "safe guy" in the draft. He isn't the highest scoring blueliner, nor is he the most physical. He'll be an NHLer, not necessarily a perennial all-star, but he'll be a solid addition to an NHL roster.

Ho hum.

What the team needs to do is add a dynamic young player who has a bit more risk, but more potential reward. This isn't the seventh or eighth overall pick we're talking about here, where players with more risk tend to go. This is second overall. Players like defensemen Griffin Reinhart, Morgan Rielly and Mat Dumba all have eceptional talent. Forwards Alex Galchenyuk, Filip Forsberg and Mikhail Grigorenko are all fantastic young players.

This isn't a knock on Murray at all. He'll be a fantastic NHLer. He's worn a letter for his junior team since he was 16 or something ridiculous. He played for Team Canada at the World Juniors (not a great tourny for him, truth be told) and most surprisingly he was a member of Canada again at the Men's World Championship. (Free scouting for Canada and Edmonton executive Kevin Lowe, I say). The thing is, at second overall, I don't think you should take the safe guy. These are where you get the home run picks. Galchenyuk has rocketed to the forefront again since the combine. Some say he's the best player in the draft, and that he'd be the unanimous number one ranked player had he not missed the whole season with an injury. Forsberg is reportedly a stud. Grigorenko can score with the best of them. Reinhart has an NHL pedigree and has been compared to Shea Freakin' Weber. Rielly is a wizard with the puck, a modern day Rover. Dumba can knock you into next week, and follow it up with a bomb from the point past your goaltender.

All of this is of course speculation. I'm not the only one who thinks that Edmonton should draft a defenseman, namely Murray. We'll have to wait and see what they do come draft day. If they take Murray, or trade the pick to a team that also goes after defense, or another forward, Yakupov slides to Columbus and we all go home happy. If Edmonton, or one of their trade partners takes Yakupov, then the questions start.

I'm just hoping that though they desperately need to get a great player with this pick, they don't take the safety and go for the home run.

Poll

If Yakupov is off the board, should the Jackets play it safe by drafting Ryan Murray second overall, or should they go for a player with a potentially higher ceiling, but a bit more risk?

Play it safe. Draft Murray.

49 votes

Go for the home run.

161 votes

210 votes | Poll has closed

Edmonton Oilers' Zonestart Adjusted Scoring Chances

Derek Zona — Thu, 31 May 2012 18:47:34 -0000

The underlying theme to the 2011-12 season was Tom Renney's skilled protection of the young Oilers' forwards (minus Magnus Paajarvi) and how the young forwards benefited from that protection. The raw scoring chances showed the three young forwards were the most productive, but how do those numbers break down when considering that protection?

Adjusting the scoring chance data for starting position puts the Oilers on an equal footing with each other (without consideration for qualcomp) and allows us to make direct comparisons of their results.

Thanks to the incomparable George Ays, we can do that.

George took the data from his own scoring chance project for the Rangers, plus the data from Neil Greenberg's data for the Capitals and modeled scoring chances as JLikens modeled Corsi. While the sample size is extremely small and subject to enormous variance, George should be able to zero in on a more targeted number as the Scoring Chance Project wraps up 2011-12. The results of of George's model shows "...an offensive zone start would be worth 0.425 scoring chances."

All data compiled and published by Dennis King and mc79hockey.com.

The Forwards

#	Player	ADH C%	ADJ CF/15	ADJ CA/15	ADJ CD/15
91	Magnus Paajarvi	0.520	3.261	3.008	0.253
83	Ales Hemsky	0.507	4.347	4.221	0.127
4	Taylor Hall	0.506	4.679	4.573	0.106
10	Shawn Horcoff	0.495	3.972	4.060	-0.088
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0.489	4.362	4.556	-0.194
55	Ben Eager	0.468	2.916	3.317	-0.402
94	Ryan Smyth	0.474	3.678	4.087	-0.409
20	Eric Belanger	0.469	3.333	3.769	-0.436
14	Jordan Eberle	0.471	4.183	4.691	-0.508
28	Ryan Jones	0.467	3.619	4.131	-0.513
89	Sam Gagner	0.457	3.566	4.230	-0.663
37	Lennart Petrell	0.427	2.363	3.166	-0.803
57	Anton Lander	0.424	2.394	3.247	-0.853

Magnus Paajarvi is a surprise leader here, but he didn't face the toughest competition. Then again, he was centered by the struggling Eric Belanger quite often.
Ales Hemsky has been an elite ES player for half of a decade now, but it's unlikely he'll be recognized as such any time soon.
Taylor Hall again shows well in the chances department, not so much for his chance prevention, but for his ability to create.
Shawn Horcoff ended up six chances in the red, playing against toughs all season long.

The Defense

#	Player	ADH C%	ADJ CF/15	ADJ CA/15	ADJ CD/15
77	Tom Gilbert	0.511	3.984	3.806	0.178
25	Andy Sutton	0.504	3.949	3.884	0.064
5	Ladislav Smid	0.487	3.704	3.902	-0.197
58	Jeff Petry	0.481	3.791	4.089	-0.297
6	Ryan Whitney	0.471	3.688	4.150	-0.462
44	Corey Potter	0.434	3.071	4.003	-0.933
24	Theo Peckham	0.404	3.171	4.682	-1.511

There's that Gilbert guy again. And he did it against the best competition.
Sutton did well against 3rd-level competition, but probably not $2.125 million well.
Smid was above water with Gilbert, but fell off without him.
Corey Potter's hot start couldn't keep him above water.

The Irregulars

#	Player	ADJ C%	ADJ CF/15	ADJ CA/15	ADJ CD/15
48	Alex Plante	0.678	5.827	2.761	3.065
15	Nick Schultz	0.519	4.234	3.925	0.308
64	Milan Kytnar	0.500	2.717	2.717	0.000
51	Phil Cornet	0.488	4.216	4.432	-0.216
33	Colten Teubert	0.473	3.853	4.286	-0.433
13	Cam Barker	0.453	3.635	4.383	-0.748
12	Josh Green	0.406	2.355	3.448	-1.093
54	Chris VandeVelde	0.293	0.995	2.401	-1.406
56	Teemu Hartikainen	0.415	3.466	4.889	-1.423
16	Darcy Hordichuk	0.320	1.358	2.892	-1.534
23	Linus Omark	0.383	3.386	5.443	-2.058
19	Bryan Rodney	0.298	2.315	5.457	-3.141
41	Taylor Chorney	0.278	2.006	5.208	-3.203

Oilers Even Strength Scoring Chances On 2011-2012

Derek Zona — Wed, 30 May 2012 22:30:12 -0000

We checked in on the team scoring chance totals and saw little improvement. But that wouldn't be the case with the wealth of individual talent, would it?

Thanks to the efforts of Dennis King at MC79hockey, who logged chances for a third season. He deserves some kind of medal for this. For reference, check the results from 2010-11 and those from 2009-10.

TCF = season total even strength chances for; TCA = season total even strength chances against; C% = scoring chance percentage; CF/15 = chances for per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; CF/15 = chances against per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice; SCDIFF = total scoring chance differential; DIFF/15 = scoring chance differential per 15 minutes of even strength time on ice;

*Tables are sortable by column, simply click on the header row in each table.

The Forwards

#	Player	TCF	TCA	C%	CF/15	CA/15	SCDIFF	DIFF/15
93	Ryan Hopkins	277	245	0.531	4.733	4.186	32	0.547
4	Taylor Hall	293	262	0.528	4.885	4.368	31	0.517
14	Jordan Eberle	330	316	0.511	4.533	4.341	14	0.192
83	Ales Hemsky	300	290	0.508	4.357	4.211	10	0.145
91	Magnus Paajarvi	102	99	0.507	3.181	3.088	3	0.094
	Fwd Average			0.479	3.707	4.039		-0.332
89	Sam Gagner	265	292	0.476	3.709	4.087	-27	-0.378
55	Ben Eager	103	119	0.464	2.892	3.341	-16	-0.449
94	Ryan Smyth	277	319	0.465	3.609	4.156	-42	-0.547
10	Shawn Horcoff	273	316	0.463	3.723	4.309	-43	-0.586
57	Anton Lander	80	103	0.437	2.466	3.175	-23	-0.709
37	Lennart Petrell	78	108	0.419	2.319	3.210	-30	-0.892
28	Ryan Jones	216	273	0.442	3.423	4.327	-57	-0.903
20	Eric Belanger	172	228	0.430	3.054	4.049	-56	-0.994

Tom Renney did his very best to give the Hall-Hopkins-Eberle trio great starting positions and easier minutes. It paid off as the three led the team in chances for. But for those fans screaming for more ice time for the trio - check out those chances against numbers. Hall and Eberle were the worst on the team at preventing scoring chances - and Hopkins isn't far behind. Remember, the three were the worst on the team at preventing scoring chances with some of the most favorable zonestarts in the league (Hopkins had the 16th-easiest zonestarts in the NHL, Eberle 20th). Eberle and Hall's percentages stagnated even though the assignments got much, much easier.

These numbers only underscore the importance of real NHL players like Ryan Smyth (perhaps going the cheapskate route with him isn't advisable) and Shawn Horcoff taking care of the difficult jobs night-in and night-out.

Speaking of Horcoff, his numbers look poor, but considering his assignment, he was nearly playing at par. One matter of note: even with the favorable zonestarts, Hall generated fewer chances per 15 compared to last year's performance with Shawn Horcoff at centre.

Even though Magnus Paajarvi has taken the role as the second-class citizen, breaking even with little or no support is an encouraging sign.

The Defense

#	Player	TSC	TSCA	CH%	CF/15	CA/15	SCDIFF	DIFF/15
77	Tom Gilbert	209	193	0.520	4.050	3.740	16	0.310
25	Andy Sutton	198	199	0.499	3.907	3.926	-1	-0.020
5	Ladislav Smid	323	345	0.484	3.678	3.928	-22	-0.250
58	Jeff Petry	315	345	0.477	3.761	4.119	-30	-0.358
6	Ryan Whitney	218	239	0.477	3.739	4.099	-21	-0.360
	Def Average			0.474	3.670	4.067	-207	-0.397
44	Corey Potter	214	255	0.456	3.228	3.846	-41	-0.618
24	Theo Peckham	160	231	0.409	3.214	4.640	-71	-1.426

Well dress me poorly and call me Don Cherry. The Oilers traded away their only defenseman who won the chances battle and he did so against the toughs. Jeff Petry is going to have to take a step forward to match Gilbert's performance and someone is going to have to step up in order to match Petry's performance against second-line competition.

Somehow Theo Peckham posted worse year-over-year numbers. I thought his .436 from 2010-11 would be the bottom as he started a (possibly very small) upward trajectory. I was wrong.

The Irregulars

#	Player	TSC	TSCA	CH%	CF/15	CA/15	SCDIFF	DIFF/15
48	Alex Plante	12	6	0.667	5.725	2.863	6	2.863
51	Phil Cornet	6	5	0.545	4.717	3.931	1	0.786
15	Nick Schultz	93	85	0.522	4.263	3.896	8	0.367
64	Milan Kytnar	1	1	0.500	2.717	2.717	0	0.000
33	Colten Teubert	74	85	0.465	3.788	4.351	-11	-0.563
12	Travis Green	12	16	0.429	2.487	3.316	-4	-0.829
13	Cam Barker	89	112	0.443	3.551	4.468	-23	-0.918
56	Teemu Hartikainen	54	69	0.439	3.668	4.687	-15	-1.019
16	Darcy Hordichuk	18	35	0.340	1.443	2.807	-17	-1.363
23	Linus Omark	40	56	0.417	3.679	5.150	-16	-1.471
54	Chris VandeVelde	2	7	0.222	0.755	2.642	-5	-1.887
19	Bryan Rodney	2	4	0.333	2.591	5.181	-2	-2.591
41	Taylor Chorney	7	22	0.241	1.741	5.473	-15	-3.731

Linus Omark Didn't Blow "His Chance"

Derek Zona — Mon, 14 May 2012 21:02:39 -0000

My favorite new fan take concerns Linus Omark and his status with the Edmonton Oilers. There have been are a number of hilarious takes (and attacks) concerning Omark in the wake of his request for a new start, but "Omark had a chance to prove himself early in the season and he blew it," takes the cake.

Before being sent to Oklahoma City on November 2nd, Omark appeared in just five games.

Listed below is even strength time for each on-ice teammate during those five games.

#	Player	20024	20061	20067	20075	20088	Total	%
23	Linus Omark	7.6	11.9	12.9	12.3	14.1	58.8
91	Magnus Paajarvi	5.7	9.3	11.6	0	11.8	38.4	65%
20	Eric Belanger	0.2	10.5	10.6	0.4	10.9	32.6	55%
13	Cam Barker	3.2	4.4	4.4	3.1	6.9	22	37%
44	Corey Potter		6.8	3.3	6.8	3.3	20.2	34%
25	Andy Sutton	2.6	4.8	2.7	3.1	5.8	19	32%
77	Tom Gilbert	3	2.6	5.7	2	4.6	17.9	30%
5	Ladislav Smid	2	2.2	5.5	2.3	4.7	16.7	28%
93	Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	0.2	0.1	0.4	11.5	1.1	13.3	23%
14	Jordan Eberle	0	0	0.5	10.5	0	11	19%
10	Shawn Horcoff	7.1	0.8	1.5	0.1	1.2	10.7	18%
6	Ryan Whitney				7.4	3	10.4	18%
58	Jeff Petry	3.1		4			7.1	12%
94	Ryan Smyth	1.9	0.8	1.3	0	1.4	5.4	9%
24	Theo Peckham	1.4	3.1		0		4.5	8%
37	Lennart Petrell		1.5	0	1.3	0.1	2.9	5%
57	Anton Lander	0.2	0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.8	3%
28	Ryan Jones	0	0.6	0.1	0.2	0	0.9	2%
4	Taylor Hall	0	0.2	0		0.6	0.8	1%
55	Ben Eager			0.1	0	0.2	0.3	1%
16	Darcy Hordichuk	0	0				0	0%
83	Ales Hemsky	0					0	0%

Note that Omark's most common linemates were Paajarvi and Belanger, two players who suffered through year-long slumps, the latter drawing the ire of fans throughout the season. His most common defensive mates were Cam Barker, Corey Potter and Andy Sutton - the very bottom of the depth chart.

Omark tallied 27 points in 51 games in 2010-11 and proved to be a complimentary player with a penchant for tenacious puck possession in the offensive zone. If he blew "his chance" in 2011-12 after five games with slumping forwards and the dregs of the blueline, it's purely the fault of the coaching staff and management for creating a chance that had no chance of coming up in Omark's favor.

Linus Omark didn't blow his chance, he never had one.

2012 Yelnats Cup Playoffs: Round 1, Day 1.

JSLandry — Mon, 07 May 2012 23:29:03 -0000

Hello simulated hockey fans! The moment you've waited for has arrived: Opening night of the 2012 Yelnats Cup playoffs! Tonight, I will watch one game and give a full recap of it and I will write the boxscores for the other featured game. Here's what's on tonight's menu:

#14 Edmonton Oilers vs. #11 Colorado Avalanche

#14 New York Islanders vs. #11 Winnipeg Jets

The reason there are only two games is because the two teams that have a bye, Calgary and Buffalo, play tonight against the random teams I needed to put to make them advance. There will be 4 games tomorrow. For my viewing pleasure, I chose to watch Edmonton vs. Colorado because it's the more interesting matchup of the two for basically everyone who like the Wild and/or the Western Conference and/or hockey in general.

DON'T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR YELNATS BRACKET BEFORE MAY 12TH! Yelnats Bracket 2012

Follow me after the jump, the Yelnats Cup Playoffs are underway!

Edmonton Oilers vs. Colorado Avalanche:

1st period:

Colorado had some early pressure thanks to an opening faceoff win. They were able to remain in the Edmonton zone for almost a full two minutes. The Avs had lots of shots but not a lot of them went on target. The shots were 10-6 in favor of the Avalanche but they were absolutely more dominant than the shots show. The Oilers' best chance came on a Ryan Smyth breakaway, but Semyon Varlamov made the shoulder save. Milan Hejduk hit the post towards the end of the period. After 20 minutes with very few whistles, the score remained tied 0-0.

2nd period:

Colorado picked up right where they left off, but in the middle of the period, Jeff Petry scored from the blueline. His slapper deflected in the net off an Avs d-man. Jordan Eberle had the lone assist on the momentum shifting goal. The remainder of the period was all Oilers. Ben Eager capitalized on a horrible defensive lapse shorty after Petry's goal. Ryan Jones was holding Jan Hedja against the boards and Hedja tried a skate pass towards the middle of the zone. Bad mistake. Eager was all alone in front of the net and shot a weak backhander past a not-so-ready Varlamov. Jamie McGinn suffered what seemed to be a head injury after being checked by Andy Sutton and later on in the period, Ryan O'Byrne got called for a slashing penalty. Shawn Horcoff scored a PP goal on an Eberle rebound. Taylor Hall got the second helper. This ended up being a disastrous period for the Avs, who were outshot 16-4 in the frame to bring the 40 minute total to 22-14 in favor of the Oilers.

3rd period:

Colorado started the period off very poorly, with Paul Stastny taking a roughing penalty after the whistle and Matt Duchene taking a slashing penalty shortly after. The Avs gave two big kills and didn't let Edmonton get a lot of shots on net, but they couldn't get any offense afterwards. Eager scored a backhanded, backbreaker goal, making it his second of the night. Nick Schultz got the lone assist. Milan Hejduk stole Khabibulin's shutout with 49 seconds left. He beat Khabibulin five hole, with assists going to Paul Stastny and Cody Mcleod. The 3rd period turned out to be a pretty high flying period with plenty of shots, but after starting with a roar, the Avs left with a whimper and were completely destroyed by the Oilers. They even lost Jamie McGinn for 4 to 5 weeks to a fractured collarbone. Luckily, it's game 1, so they have some time to get into gear.

Final score: Edmonton 4 - 1 Colorado

Shots: Edmonton 40 - 29 Colorado

Boxscore:

1st period

Nothing

2nd period

EDM 13:06 J.Petry (1), (J.Eberle)

EDM 13:43 B. Eager (1), (unassisted)

EDM 18:54 S. Horcoff (1), (J.Eberle, T.Hall) PP

3rd period

EDM 12:33 B.Eager (2), (N.Schultz)

COL 19:11 M.Hejduk(1), (P.Stastny, C.McLeod)