SB Nation - Ryan Potulny

Sometimes, the Oilers Aren't Killing Me

Benjamin Massey — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:30:15 -0000

9 days ago: Edmonton Oilers goalie Jeff Deslauriers makes a save in the third period of an NHL hockey game against the St. Louis Blues, Friday, Dec. 11, 2009, in St. Louis. The Oilers overcame a 3-0 deficit to win 5-3. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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Over my time at the Copper & Blue, I've developed a reputation as a bit of a ranting, negative lunatic. There's a very good reason I've acquired this reputation: it's accurate. That's pretty much exactly what I am. When the Oilers lose, I'll tear my face off with grief and when they win I'll settle for pulling my nose hairs out bemoaning how close they were to losing.

It's a stressful sort of fandom I live. One filled with black clouds of grim angst occasionally broken up by rays of bright sunshine which serve only to make the darkness seem all the more oppressive.

But in truth, I am not all despair all the time. Sometimes... just sometimes... the Oilers manage to surprise me in an astonishing little way. And so, for your viewing enjoyment and to give myself a break from a constant stream of negativity, gloom, and angst, I present to you six lovely little surprises for the holiday season that the Edmonton Oilers have provided me so far this year.

1) The goaltending isn't nearly as bad as I'd feared. Early in the season, I gave Nikolai Khabibulin the nickname "Maginot Line" because he was big, expensive, immobile, outdated, and largely useless. Jeff Deslauriers I didn't give a nickname but, then, I didn't have to because he was Jeff Deslauriers so obviously he was going to be terrible. It would have been like kicking a puppy into traffic to pick on him any more.

Well, neither Deslauriers nor Khabibulin have been terrific by any means, but they haven't been bad. Nikolai Khabibulin's contract was terrible but, a few foibles aside, his play wasn't. With a .909 save percentage and an almost tolerable 3.03 goals-against average while playing through the worst of Edmonton's defensive injuries, Khabibulin wasn't shooting the lights out but was pretty much middle of the pack for NHL starters. He's being paid like an All-Star, but I'm trying to look at his play, not his contract.

Of course, then he strained his back reaching too far for the remote or something and now we're putting up with Jeff Deslauriers. Who's... actually been a bit better than Khabibulin. A .916 save percentage, a 2.61 goals-against average, and his first career NHL shutout. The sample size is small, but Deslauriers is fifteenth in the NHL among goaltenders who've played at least ten games in save percentage. He's tied with Henrik Lundqvist, for God's sake. He's ahead of Roberto Luongo! And he's playing for the Edmonton Oilers!

That's not shabby. That's not shabby at all.

2) Ladislav Smid is quietly becoming brilliant. Obviously, playing with Lubomir Visnovsky helps (more on him later). But the book on Ladislav Smid used to be that he's was a crappy version of Tommy Albelin. Then, starting last season, we started to see more of a physical edge in his game. He got into guys' faces, he didn't take no guff, he started to "clear his neighbourhood" as the astronomers say. Then this year, his strides have been palpable. He's still not a Derian Hatcher sort, but he's getting there.

It is an axiom, at least to me, that defensive defensemen take forever to develop. Defending is hard, guys. You can't just work on a big slapshot or some fancy stickhandling moves and still put up results while learning the game. Until you figure out exactly how things work in the show you are going to get run over. For a long time, Smid was getting killed, but more and more he's figuring it out. We saw the same thing with former Oiler Matt Greene, only to trade him just as the light was starting to go on. Every player in that mold goes through the same thing and the trick is figuring out which kids will eventually get it. Smid is starting to get it.

3) Who the hell are our forwards, and why are they doing so okay? Ryan O'Marra, Colin McDonald, Ryan Potulny, Gilbert Brule, Liam Reddox, Ryan Stone oh god I could keep going. No, it's not the second and third lines of the Springfield Falcons, it's a list of guys we've called up, plugged into the starting lineup, and told "surprise! you're NHL players!"

Well, the results could have been a lot worse, couldn't they?

Colin McDonald, that big palooka, scored a goal. Ryan O'Marra, who I ragged on so much he was on the verge of becoming a running joke, looked better in the NHL than he ever has in the AHL. Liam Reddox slumped towards the end but looked so promising at the beginning of his callup I pronounced him the new Fernando Pisani. Gilbert Brule is this team's fourth-leading scorer (seriously), and no matter what Derek says that's pretty damned impressive in any context. He has nine goals and twelve assists for twenty-one points in twenty-nine games. His previous career highs were nine goals and ten assists for nineteen points in seventy-eight games with Columbus in 2006-07.

Ryan Stone, meanwhile, has been getting positive notices for everything but his scoring. He's banged, crashed, made life miserable for opposing players, looked after himself in his own zone, and chipped in five assists in thirteen games. His return from injury immediately made our fourth line into a credible opponent, and that's been vital to the Oilers' recent success.

Not one of these guys were being counted on to be any sort of positive at the beginning of the year, and yet they've all helped the team, some in big ways, others in small ones.

4) There's a lot of try in this team. Much as I hate to resort to crappy colour-man clichés, it's true. Remember the doldrums of the last couple of seasons where the Oilers were just going through the motions? Crappy players playing a crappy game and afterwards Craig MacTavish would say things at the press conference like "I don't know what else I can say to these guys. They need to figure things out for themselves."?

Yeah, that's not happening anymore. We've had a couple tremendous comebacks already this season, and we've had a couple pretty ugly losses where the team kept fighting until the conclusion anyway. Losing is a lot more bearable when you can see the team cares about it.

5) How incredible is Lubomir Visnovsky? Really damned incredible, that's how incredible. He's been healthy, for the most part, which was a pleasant treat in of itself. But it gets better. His seven goals is tied for third on the team, behind only Dustin Penner and Gilbert Brule. His twenty-three points is second, although he's only one up on Ales Hemsky, the human incarnation of how much the hockey gods hate us. He's +12, which on a team this crappy is hard to do. Among Oilers to play at least twenty games, he leads in time on ice per game. His .767 points per game pace is right back at the élite level he showed from 2005 to 2007 in Los Angeles.

He's sixth in the league in defensive scoring and he's delivering surprisingly excellent defensive results. He's sixth in the league in plus/minus among defensemen, which sounds like I'm making it up. There's nothing not to love about Lubomir Visnovsky's season so far. Some say that he needs to shoot more. Maybe, but I'm reluctant to mess with an All-Star season on a non-playoff team.

6) Special teams haven't been useless. Considering the dearth of offensive creativity and the mediocre lot of defensive forwards we've dealt ourselves, you'd expect both the powerplay and the penalty kill to be completely dire. And certainly the penalty kill has been pretty bad, if not awful, with a 78.8% kill rate plunking them 23rd on the table. To tell you the truth, I'd have put us a lot worse than 23rd at the beginning of the year and that was without considering all the injuries we've picked up, so even that ugly number carries a glittering gem of consolation. If you can throw out guys like Steve Staios, Zack Stortini, and Jason Strudwick on an NHL penalty kill and come up 23rd, things aren't so bad.

The powerplay, on the other hand! Just as devoid of personnel, just as wracked by injury, so ill-conceived that people were trying to talk themselves into Mike Comrie as a legitimate powerplay specialist, and yet they're hitting at a 19.5% rate! That's fourteenth in the league! That's average! I am delighted with average. Whenever any aspect of the Oilers is average, considering what a below-average team they are, that's something. Particularly when the powerplay has been such a history struggle for the Oilers over the last several seasons. It's nice to see results improving even when the team is not.

Robert Nilsson could learn from Ryan Potulny

Derek Zona — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:59:13 -0000

Ryan Potulny made a move against San Jose that Robert Nilsson might be interested in watching and copying. Fans know of Nilsson's tendency to come into the zone 1-on-1, fake a slapshot and go wide around the net, effectively killing the play and eliminating any transition advantage that the Oilers once had. Defenders and goalies now know this too, as it's pretty obvious that they don't play the shot at all.

Against San Jose, Potulny pulled the same fake, but kept driving to the net. Granted, he was in one-on-none, but he kept driving to the net after his fake, rather than pulling up or going in behind the net. Nilsson might take a few teams by surprise if he were to do this. See below:

Edmonton - San Jose post-game: Movember can't end soon enough

Bruce McCurdy — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 09:09:44 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

23 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' Sheldon Souray, left, battles with San Jose Sharks' Dany Heatley, of Germany, during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Edmonton, Alberta, on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

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Well, shit. What a crushing day. We lost Hemsky for the season, and we lost a game we should have won. Not just a game, but The "Dany Heatley Game". Played well enough to titillate, but in the end, handed the Sharks the freaking game on a silver platter in a particularly discouraging manner.

It was a good game and I have few (but specific) complaints. A good friend I don't see often enough got a pair of freebies and was kind enough to phone me, we hit the Thanh Thanh for some excellent Vietnamese cuisine en route, and by anthem-time found our seats on Row 31 overlooking the faceoff circle in the Sharks end, players' bench side. Funny thing, the last year I had season tickets I moved up to Row 31 from Row 14 to reduce the per game damage from $31 to $17. Now it's 17 years later and those $17 seats now bear a sticker price of $107! Which is why I rely on generous friends and occasional good luck to get to my handful of games a year ... ducats are simply out of range.

31 rows is a long way from the ice, but not too far to see some of the wide open spaces in several of the Movember 'staches on display even after a month of "growth". That little visual brought home the fact that this was a battle of boys against men

The anti-Heatley sentiment peaked early, with one leather lung letting rip a harsh "You suck Heatley!" while Paul Lorieau paused for a breath in the Star Spangled Banner, which certainly brought home the fact that this was another Canadian** hockey star who had bolted stateside, turning his nose up at two Canadian teams in the process. So the loudmouth's timing was appropriate or classless or both depending on one's viewpoint.

(** Canadian unless you believe the photo caption, which I have left in its raw, AP form. For whatever reason they always identify non-North American players by what country they're from.)

After that the booing was more perfuctory than anything, more noise than anything heartfelt. The cheers rang when Sheldon Souray knocked Heatley on his overpaid butt 5 minutes in, but quickly died out when Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau instantly took advantage of the large hole Souray had left behind in the process to put the Sharks up 1-0. The lead held past the midway mark of the game and I began to wonder if the Oilers would ever score again. Out of the blue though, Ryan Potulny made a nice steal from Dan Boyle, outraced a half-hearted Thornton backcheck and went in alone to deke Evgeni Nabokov. The Oilers carried the 1-1 score to the intermission, another tight defensive struggle not dissimilar from Wednesday's affair vs. the Kings. Unexpectedly, the third period was the bipolar opposite...

What a period it was. Dustin Penner scored early on a Gilbert Brulé rebound, then Penner returned the favour with a goal mouth feed that Brulé swatted home. Two-goal lead in the third, our first chance to be home and cooled out. Instead it lasted exactly two shifts of the Marleau-Thornton-Heatley line, both of which ended with the puck in the back of Jeff Deslauriers' net. 3-3. Back and forth the game went for several pulsating minutes, with my pick to score the game winner, Ladi Smid, actually having a great chance only to be beaten by Nabokov's glove. Undeterred, Smid later served as the middleman between Ethan Moreau's determined rush and Potulny's finishing shot which put the Oil up once again, 4-3 with 5 minutes to go. Turnaround for what happened in the Kings' game Thursday. We just had to see it out.

The best/worst thing about it was that for the next 3½ minutes the Oilers played perfect hockey. They forechecked like demons, hemming the Sharks in their own end, consistently winning races to and battles for loose pucks, cycling, making crisp changes while still maintaining puck pursuit. It was a joy to watch. Until, of all things, Oilers forced a Shark mistake, a penalty with 1:40 to go.

Well that should have been it. Instead, the Oil fell completely asleep. The powerplay which had done nothing all night, did much less than nothing when it mattered most, allowing three great San Jose scoring chances and the tying goal on a completely broken play. Hard to believe that you can win a draw in your own end 5-against-4 and within 4 seconds have the play end with the opposing centre completing his hat trick from the edge of the crease without anybody around him including the goalie. Gagner broke or dropped his stick winning the draw and let Marleau go, Staios and Souray got crossed up, Thornton won a race to the loose puck and JDD went fishing for the pokecheck only to look silly when Thornton fished the puck to Marleau for the tap in. A complete fustercluck, with the game completely on the line. Stupid, stupid, stupid hockey.

Oilers conspired to give up another odd man rush on the same powerplay, very nearly losing the game in regulation. There was no further scoring in overtime either, despite a very entertaining 101 seconds of the ultra-rare 3v3. From there it was a shootout, and the only surprise was that it wasn't Dany Bloody Heatley who dropped the guillotine on another loss, perhaps the most disappointing, frustrating, and discouraging one to date.

The thing of it is, if you hang around long enough, there's not much new under the sun and no matter what happens, chances are you've seen something like it before. I remember three years ago almost to the day, attending The Chris Pronger Game in which the Oil blew a two-goal lead, the Ducks tied it with the goalie out and won it in overtime, prompting very similar emotions. I also recall the Oil blowing a game in the Boston Garden round about 1986 or so when they had the lead and the powerplay in the last two minutes, conspired to retreat all the way to their own end with the puck, and then Paul Coffey tried a long slow diagonal pass right through the middle of his own zone which the Bruins picked off and promptly put in the net. Then they won it in overtime. That time I was so mad I could spit ... tonight it was shocking in one sense but in another it was just another disaster in a disastrous season. Bad news always carries the day, so what's new?

***

Jacques - Horcoff - O'Sullivan
This threesome along with Staios and Souray was hard-matched against San Jose's big unit (Marleau-Thornton-Heatley-Murray-Boyle). They weren't up to the task judging by the -3 each of the three posted. Funny, cuz they did lots of things right. JFJ led the Oilers in hits (6) and POS in shots (also 6). Horcoff worked his tail off and made lots of excellent small plays, such as the second period sequence where he fended off heavy Sharks forechecking by two guys and finally worked his way out of the zone, only to have Souray inexplicably miss his soft breakout pass with the Sharks instantly turning it into a 2-on-1 the other way. Lots to like in JFJ's game, but defensive presence is not one of those things

Penner - Gagner - Brulé
Solid night's work from the trio, consisting of two former hot shot draft picks and the big man who took a very circuitous route to the bigs. They connected for two third period goals and showing some chemistry especially between Penner and Brulé who had it going earlier in the year. Brulé is no Hemsky obviously but I'm starting to think we might have an Actual NHL Player™ on our hands. He's showing some real intensity to go with a nose for the net and a quick release. As he has done most of the season, Penner gave the Sharks defenders fits with his bull-in-a-china-shop routine

Moreau - Potulny - Cogliano
Lots to like here. The trio generated 10 shots among them in a strong effort from all three men. Potulny too is doing a convincing impersonation of an Actual NHL Player™ and is getting stronger as his ice time and confidence grows. He notched a pair of goals with some real strong finish, threw his body around with some abandon, and contributed solid time to both special teams. Cogliano appears tp be finally emerging from the coccon that had enveloped his early-season play, skating hard and really getting his competitive juices flowing. The goals aren't coming yet, but he's been an effective player of late. Moreau too put in an excellent efffort, contributing a number of strong rushed including the one that led directly to what should have been the winning goal. He remains way too inclined to shoot from absolutely anywhere that he actually gets control of the disc, and the element of surprise is long gone.

McDonald - O'Marra - Stortini
A creditable performance from the young trio, who held their own in brief appearances (~5 minutes TOI). Stortini (4 hits) did a solid job chaperoning his inexperienced mates (combined 1 NHL GP before this one). O'Marra with a couple of nice hits, although for some reason he skirted a guy he seemingly had in the trolley tracks in the third. Guys like him need to hit at every opportunity to be successful. The raw rook McDonald had a couple of giveaways mixed in as he had a little trouble with NHL speed. I loved one sequence where all three of them consecutively hammered various Sharks who were trying to break out.

Souray - Staios
An awful night for the two vets, who were not so much hardmatched as overmatched against the "Olympic Line". Both ended the night with a sorry -4, burnt for three even strength goals with 22-10-19 and then the less forgivable SH goal that tied things at the end in which the two experienced defenders completely got undressed in front of their own goal. Souray had 3 giveaways and 2 bad penalties mixed in on a night where he seemed completely out of sorts, out of synch with himself and almost out of phase with the game. Everything he did was a split second ahead or behind the play. Staios got some time on the PP which spent more time allowing odd-man rushes against than creating anything in the good end.

Smid - Visnovsky
Solid night's work saw both post a +2. Smid delivered a tenacious effort which included contributions in the O-zone, as he forced a fine save from Nabokov minutes before he set up Potulny for the 4-3 goal. Visnovsky looked small and overmatched on a couple of occasions, and like a master in complete control much of the rest of the time.

Strudwick - Gilbert
Another pair with a sparkling +2 rating against lesser comp. One of Strudwick's stronger games in a while. Gilbert had a couple of horrendous giveways which led directly to glorious chances for the Sharks, but otherwise was looking more like his old self than I've seen for a while, using his smarts to win possession and his legs to rush the puck with authority.

Deslauriers
A number of decent stops to bail out various Oiler breakdowns, but I was less than impressed with his overall body of work. Seems to have a hell of a time tracking the puck, and allows rebounds in unexpected directions. He had his usual puckhandling misadventures (3 GV for at least the third time recently), freezing the puck much more often than necessary, especially given Oilers' issues on the dot. (See: tying goal against.) His attempted pokecheck on that faceoff situation was the exact wrong play, and led to Marleau having a wide open net to dunk the puck. Does not inspire confidence in this observer.

Situational Faceoff Percentage

Scott Reynolds — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 19:00:30 -0000

Faceoffs are reasonably important. Especially faceoffs in the offensive or defensive zone where puck possession leads more directly to success. Gabe Desjardins has demonstrated the impact of the outcome of a faceoff at even strength. No doubt there would be similar results if one looked at the outcome of faceoffs on special teams. I bring this up because the Edmonton Oilers are not very good in the faceoff circle and have recently taken to using options like Patrick O'Sullivan and Dustin Penner in order to compensate for an injured Shawn Horcoff, ineffective Andrew Cogliano and "signed-to-play-wing" Mike Comrie. I wanted to look at what their track record might tell us about what we should expect from them going forward. In order to do that, however, I wanted to first look at the difference between faceoff success on the power play, on the penalty kill and at even strength.

More after the jump...

First, I need to acknowledge that Tyler Dellow has already given us some data that shows teams and players have a much better faceoff percentage on the power play than they do when short-handed. It seems obvious, but isn't always something we think of when we talk about a particular player's faceoff percentage. I decided to put together a couple of charts illustrating this point. The first is a chart of players that took more than 200 faceoffs while short-handed last in both 2008-09 and 2007-08:

The final "totals" column is just adding all of the faceoff performances together so those that took more faceoffs contribute more to the average. That means that the players who took the most faceoffs over the last two years on the penalty kill ended up losing a significant portion of their success. Although for some players there are some pretty big jumps from year to year, in absolute terms, the guys who did the best at even strength also tend to do the best short-handed.

The next chart is for players who took at least 200 faceoffs while on the power play in both 2007-08 and 2008-09:

I think there are some pretty interesting things here. The guys taking the most faceoffs on the penalty kill are generally what we might call "specialists." Teams really don't want to lose draws when they're penalty killing and make it a priority. On the power play, faceoff ability takes a backseat to offensive ability in general. The only player you might regard as a specialist who makes the list is Rod Brind'Amour who, in his best year, won two thirds of his faceoffs on the power play. This will generally serve to drag down the numbers of the specialists and pump up the numbers for the stars. Again, there isn't a lot of consistency at the player level from year to year but the totals stay very similar.

So, back to the Oilers, when deciding which guys should be taking draws I think it's probably wise to just look at even strength numbers. For instance, Dustin Penner's faceoff percentage in 2007-08 was 55.0% in 189 faceoffs but in the 93 faceoffs he took at even strength he only won 40.8%. Here are the career numbers at even strength for all of the Oilers who have taken 50 or more faceoffs this season, adding in Marc Pouliot and subtracting Shawn Horcoff:

It's not the prettiest of charts. There are only two guys on the team who have cleared 43% for their career and, at least so far, Dustin Penner and Patrick O'Sullivan aren't good options on the dot. Sam Gagner has improved a lot so far this year (100 wins and 103 losses) and could be a decent option going forward but with Horcoff not taking draws the Oilers could really use some help in this area. For most clubs faceoffs aren't a big deal because the pack is bunched so close together but the Oilers are bad enough territorially and bad enough at faceoffs that it could well be hurting them. It would obviously be preferable to improve the territorial play but it's probably significantly easier to improve the faceoff situation.

And poor Marc Pouliot. Gilbert Brule hasn't been used at all on the PK so when Pouliot gets back he's likely going to immediately step into some pretty tough minutes (defensive zone draws and lots of PK). It's a virtual guarantee his counting numbers are going to be awful as he heads for restricted free agency. Good luck getting paid kid!

Buffalo - Springfield Post-Game. That Was Springfield, Right?

Benjamin Massey — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:31:42 -0000

More photos » by Don Heupel - AP

Buffalo Sabres right winger Drew Stafford tries to hit the puck past Edmonton Oilers goalie Nikolai Khabibulin, top, during the first period of the NHL game in Buffalo, N.Y., Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Don Heupel)

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You know what? I used to like Buffalo Springfield.

Would-be Falcons were certainly making an impact on the night. Whether it was Ryan Potulny's limp-wristed feebleness leading to the first goal or Liam Reddox getting nerve stapled by Clarke MacArthur on a play that should be a ten-game suspension and will be a firmly shaken finger from Colin Campbell saying not to do it again, it was all about the guys from the Falcons. And the guys who maybe should be on the Falcons (O HAI JASON STRUDWICK).

So when you think about it, were we really all that bad?

The fact that the Oilers lost without distinction is obvious. They've had a few all right games in a row on this road trip and I wouldn't have picked them to get two points on the entire tour, so it's easy to take a loss to the Sabres as a moral victory, in context. They played like a team which had just gutted out a shootout loss against a superior team in Ottawa, which they were. They had every reason in the world to lose this game, and they did. The end.

Well, the end until news of MacArthur's non-suspension comes down, at which point I can dope up on rageahol like it was meant to be.

Most of the Oilers weren't dreadful individually. Patrick O'Sullivan made some classic Patrick O'Sullivan passes to nobody, sure, but he also scored a lovely goal and was a quarter-inch from a hat trick. Nikolai Khabibulin takes the rap for the second goal, which fluttered through his five hole like a butterfly into the eye of a hurricane, but he also made some nice saves. Perhaps his rebound control on the first goal wasn't the best either, but any NHL goalie will let his share of pucks out when he's down like that.

Liam Reddox was actually one of the best Oilers out there because he played like he wanted something from the game. He was tenacious and always hard on the puck, gave the Sabres hassle whenever they were near him - he was, in short, the usual Liam Reddox. Not that skilled but certainly more useful than guys like me usually gave him credit for. Steve Staios was also a highlight - and I want you to know how difficult it is for me to say that. Though his one mistake in the third period was a heinous giveaway leading to a penalty and only Khabibulin's right pad saved him from an embarrassing minus, Steady Steve actually earned his nickname.

When a team suffers as many injuries and as much fatigue as the Oilers have, the role players like Reddox and Staios have to step up. Unfortunately the stars weren't keeping pace. Dustin Penner had his worst game in some time, with a number of stick-cracking slashes by the Sabres going uncalled but the big genius largely ineffective even when he did have all his equipment. Ales Hemsky, rushed back into the lineup to replace Ryan O'Marra, was simply dreadful. Andrew Cogliano was a non-entity, carried by the stronger play of Ethan Moreau and Zack Stortini on his line. Sam Gagner was possibly not on the ice at all.

The injuries, though. We hope Reddox is all right; playing in his next game has nothing to do with it. We know Grebeshkov is going home after a dirty knee-on-knee play that got no call; one suspects that Bryan Young is sitting excitedly near the phone. We still have Bryan Young, right?

It was a game to forget, except for Clarke MacArthur. The Oilers and Sabres don't play that often, but when they do I hope the Oilers have long memories.

The Copper & Blue Reverse Three Stars, Unfair Though Selecting Players from the Minor Leagues May Be:

18th Star: F Ryan Potulny. Scored a goal last night against the ~~Senators~~ Avalanche, and fair play to him! But I didn't see the game ~~last night against Ottawa~~ against Colorado, I saw the goal tonight against Buffalo. And against Buffalo, oh boy did he ever look like an American leaguer.

I pin the first goal on him, as we discussed. With the Sabres moving the puck around our zone, Potulny was skating to and fro awkwardly as if desperately afraid to be caught doing nothing but equally afraid to be caught out of position and therefore being stuck between various extremes of uselessness. The puck went into the corner and Potulny threw his stick out awkwardly, subscribing to the Red Green school of defending and keeping his stick on the ice. The puck clattered off his feeble grip and deflected out in front, whereupon the Sabres ended up banging it in.

The Steve Smith who wrote the Red Green show? Not that Steve Smith. Ryan Potulny would do well to remember that.

Apart from that, he did very little. He generally handled the puck like it were radioactive and was thrown out on the last, desperate shift of the game because who the hell else were you going to put out there? Potulny has lovely soft hands and I like him, but the reason he's not playing in the NHL is because of his skating and because his puck sense isn't the greatest. Boy Jesus, he proved that.

19th Star: F Ales Hemsky. Has Ales Hemsky ever played well hurt? I don't think Hemsky is a stereotypical European sissy by any means. He can fight in the corners and he'll use his muscle when he can. We've all seen him block shots or take heavy blows in the corner that he knew were coming and keep going. He's not afraid and he's not going to shy away. But sometimes he gets hurt, and when he does it gets ugly. He's willing to play almost every time and we all wind up wishing he hadn't.

He plays a very difficult style of play. Even aside from his famous Euro Dangles he twists and turns when he's skating, tries to do everything at speed, and will try to play his way through gaps smaller than most players would attempt. If part of him really isn't feeling right, it may just completely throw him off. Well, he looked completely thrown off tonight. Towards the end of the game when he got into an unprovoked tussle with Patrick Kaleta, he looked utterly miserable, like he was about to throw up on Kaleta's face but was concerned he might be suspended for it.

20th Star: D Jason Strudwick. He's like Mark Messier at this stage. A constant danger, a reliable threat, and somebody who you never, ever can take your eye off for any reason. The only difference is that Messier did it helping his team.

Running out of hyperbole now. Stop sucking so much, Jason.

Season-to-Date Standings:

21 points: Jason Strudwick

14 points: Ethan Moreau

11 points: Mike Comrie, Nikolai Khabibulin

8 points: Denis Grebeshkov

6 points: Jean-Francois Jacques

5 points: Patrick O'Sullivan

4 points: Ales Hemsky, Theo Peckham

3 points: Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff, Patrick O'Sullivan, Ryan Stone

1 point: Andrew Cogliano, Tom Gilbert, Ryan Potulny

Edmonton Oilers @ Buffalo Sabres: Keys to the Game

Rafal Ladysz — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Frank Gunn - AP

2 months ago: Buffalo Sabres' Derek Roy (9) celebrates his goal with teammate Thomas Vanek (26) during the third period of a preseason NHL hockey game against the Toronto Maple Leafs in Toronto on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Frank Gunn)

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The annual one and only meeting of the season between the Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers takes place tonight at HSBC Arena. This is a contest that Buffalo should be looking forward to for a number of reasons. First, they have won each and every battle with the Oilers since the lock-out including a 10-2 embarrassment last year.

Second, Edmonton will be without key players: Ales Hemsky; the best overall forward in terms of pure skill, Shawn Horcoff and Sheldon Souray who makes the powerplay scarier with his one-timer. Third, while the Sabres have had a couple of days rest to examine their two losses over the weekend, the Oilers are in the midst of a five-game road trip that saw them play into overtime against the Ottawa Senators yesterday.

Finally, the group should be motivated after coming out flat and getting outscored 9-4 by Philadelphia and Boston combined. But even with this Edmonton squad missing people, the Sabres can't take them lightly. Below are the keys for each team to find a victory this evening.

Buffalo

Score the first goal. Each regulation loss Buffalo has suffered was the result of allowing that opening goal and before you knew it, they went on to allow another on every occasion and a 2-0 deficit has been their path to a disappointment.
Don't underestimate Pat Quinn's troops. Although a lot of firepower isn't available, Edmonton has young players who are hungry and looking to make their mark. And Denis Grebeshkov and Lubomir Visnovsky can jump into the play and control a powerplay adequately.
Make something happen in the special teams department. Boston picked them apart in both penalty killing and man-advantage opportunities on Saturday. Get some simple shots towards the goal instead of trying fancy plays.
Take full advantage of this situation with the schedule, previous success in the overall series and the injuries. Edmonton is 2-5-1 on the road whereas Buffalo is 5-2-1 at home.
Give Ryan Miller an easy night. He's won numerous games for us with his stellar goaltending and it's time we returned the favor. Edmonton averages 26.1 shots per game (28th in the league) compared to Buffalo's 34.9 (best in the league).

Edmonton

Like Buffalo, scoring first is crucial for Edmonton and together, these two clubs are 14-2-3 when they grab an early lead. When allowing the opening goal, they combine for a 3-10 record.
Lure the opponent into taking penalties as the Oiler powerplay has operated at 23.2 per cent. Buffalo's penalty kill is in the bottom half of the league so put the pressure on them as often as possible.
Throw the puck at Miller frequently because 20 to 25 shots aren't going to get the job done with a goaltender whose save percentage is .936 and goals against average reads 1.89. I know Edmonton had a tendency to score on what little chances they received in October but that won't work here.
Play with energy and use last year's 10-2 thrashing as motivation. Back-to-back battles are never easy but young guys like Ryan Potulny and Liam Reddox are eager to remain in the line-up doing so by any means necessary.
Get Dustin Penner going. He's playing the best hockey of his career and oozing confidence under the new head coach. Provide him with ice time that he's earned.

All signs point to a Buffalo victory tonight if history is any indication. As nice as statistics and trends are, it'll still be up to the team to deliver two points.

Oilers Roundtable, Part IV - Training Camp Battles

Derek Zona — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:05:20 -0000

by Jeff Lewis - AP

View full size photo »

Thus far we've reviewed strengths, there are a few, and weaknesses, there are many, in the 2009 preseason roundtable. Part IV takes a peek at training camp and the player battles that fans can look for as September progresses.

Our lineup includes: the erudite Shepso, author of some of the most intellectual hockey writings - he plies his trade at Bringing Back The Glory; The venerable HBomb, frequent on-point commentor at Lowetide's place; the incisive Dawgbone, a frequent commentor all over the Oilers' 'sphere, who writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; the pragmatic Doogie2k, an excellent foil and a thought-provoking writer at Still No Name; and the hilarious Lord Bob, whose rapier wit is rarely matched in the 'sphere. Jonathan, Bruce and myself round out this merry band of brigands, obsessives, geeks, and puckheads.

4. Coming into training camp, do you think there are any position battles to be won?

Shepso: Oh gawd yes. 3C and 4C are both still wide open, as is 1LW, though the Amicus Brief series proves that DP belongs there should Horcoff and Hemsky not be broken up. I have a feeling that Poo will be our 3C out of training camp, though Brule is more suited for it. Nilsson still has to prove he belongs here, Jacques and Smac will be battling for the utility coke machine position, as clearly Huggy Bear is the main 4th line goon now. Reddox is in tough as well as the last forward. I say he doesn’t make the team and Smac does. I’m also pretty sure that Peckham is going to give the lovable but not-so-skillful Strudwick a run for the 7D in training camp. He’ll lose, but only because Jason is so quotable and great in the pressbox…er…locker room. DD may give JDD a run in training camp, but his time is not quite now. He will play 5-8 games in the bigs this year though.

Hbomb: The goaltending seems set, as does the 7 defensemen. The depth forwards are where the battles are going to be. By my math, you can give spots right now to Hemsky, Horcoff, Penner, Gagner, Cogliano, O'Sullivan, Moreau, and Pisani. That's eight guys right there. In the battle for the other six spots are Robert Nilsson, Gilbert Brule, Marc Pouliot, JF Jacques, Zack Stortini, Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny, Steve MacIntyre, and perhaps Ryan Stone. It's going to depend on what sort of dimension that Pat Quinn wants to bring to his bottom six, and whether or not there's a place at center or on the wing for a guy like Cogliano or O'Sullivan.

Note that I have not included Rob Schremp in this debate. In my mind, he's completely finished as an Oiler prospect and is all-but-certain to be lost on waivers prior to October 1st.

Dawgbone: There's a couple of spots where there should be battles, but I don't think there will be (And I don't think it matters). The biggest issue is that of all the potential battles, none of them really matter much because the players just aren't that good. It's not like we are talking about a player who can potentially challenge a guy like Pisani for a job because the kid is that good. The battles we are talking about is roster spots for Brule, Schremp, Potulny, Stone, Jacques, etc... Not to take anything away from these guys but they just don't make enough of a difference over each other to have any factor in terms of how the season goes.

Doogie2k: The 2C job is an interesting one. In the article I linked above on the centres, I noted basically three players who could theoretically make that position: Gagner, O'Sullivan, and Andrew Cogliano. It'll be interesting to see which one wins out, and how much it reflects the Quinney coaching philosophy. I would be very curious to see what a line with Gagner at centre and O'Sullivan and Cogliano on the wings would be like, aside from horrible at face-offs. Related to that, the top two LW jobs could be up for grabs, particularly if Quinn opts to put O'Sullivan on the wing again, instead of at centre. I suspect Dustin Penner's job is safe, but Robert Nilsson has to be looking over his shoulder, since he could readily be supplanted by Patty O'Lanterns or, if O'Sullivan plays 2C, Sam Gagner. Finally, 3C could potentially be interesting, though it's probably Pouliot's job to lose unless he's supplanted by either O'Sullivan or, as a dark horse, Brule.

Other than that, just the usual jockeying for position in the bottom tier of the roster. Depending on player performance and perceived team needs from the coaching staff, any combination of Reddox, Sestito, Minard, Stone, Potulny, Brule, Jacques, Stortini, MacIntyre, Schremp, Eberle, and Paajarvi-Svensson (okay, maybe not Schremp at this point) could make 10-14F, while the D battle seems mostly won, unless one of the current bottom three (Staios, Smid, Strudwick) gets hurt, gets traded, or completely fails out in camp.

Lord Bob: While not a position battle /per se/, Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney could easily ruin Jason Strudwick's year as the /de facto/ injury replacement. Quinn has had trouble with youngsters but he's been known to take a flyer on a kid who catches his eye. If Peckham or Chorney impress in camp and a defenseman goes down long-term, the Oilers may opt to throw one of the rookies straight into the lineup and Strudwick will continue to sit in the press box. Peckham is obviously the favourite, but Chorney's skillset is more attractive and if he comes to camp motivated, he could make noise.

Bruce: There are always position battles, although in 2009-10 they mainly seem to be concentrated up front. The goalies are set with JDD almost certainly having the jump on Dubnyk for the backup role, while the blueline crew seems fairly settled with a defined top 4, Staios and Smid a solid third pairing, and Strudwick surely slotted for a 7th D/14th F role as last year. Theo Peckham will turn some heads in training camp but barring trade or injury I don't see him forcing his way past anyone in the projected top 6 quite yet.

Up front it's musical chairs with 7 forwards vying for top 6 roles. In theory 1LW is an open competition, with O'Sullivan, Cogliano, even Nilsson nipping at Penner's heels. Only 2 of the "losers" will line up with Gagner on the second scoring line, while the odd man out might find himself centring a tough minutes line (POS, Cogs) or in tough for a job (Nilsson). If the former, then a battle will develop between Pouliot and Brule for the 4C role.

Guys like Potulny, Eberle, and Schremp will make some noise at training camp but are likely battling just to make the 23-man roster in a pressbox role. Ditto MacIntyre.

Derek: I see two primary battles to be settled in camp: first line left wing and second toughs center. Cogliano and Penner will fight it out for the first left wing and the loser will end up on Gagner's port side. O'Sullivan and Pouliot will battle for the second toughs center in a more nuanced battle. Neither are particularly physical, but Pouliot is bigger and seemingly better in the circle. O'Sullivan also has a better resume to this point. I think if O'Sullivan can get some traction in the faceoff circle, the spot between Pisani and Moreau is his. If not, he can end up on Pouliot's left or on Gagner's right. If Pouliot loses, the fourth line center is his. If not, he's leaving Edmonton.

Jonathan: Yes. Up front, there are spots reserved for Gilbert Brule and Jean-Francois Jacques, but they'll need to have strong training camps to hang on to them, as the Oilers have a group of very good AHL players (Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny, Chris Minard, Ryan Stone) who will all be pushing for a role. On top of that, it remains to be seen if Steve MacIntyre's roster spot will go to a fighter; if it does, the Oilers have brought in Kip Brennan to challenge for the role, if not one of the other forwards in the system could snag it. Other than that, there is the slight possibility that Theo Peckham or Devan Dubnyk could pass Jason Strudwick or Jeff Deslauriers in camp.

Poll

Which position battle will last the longest in training camp?

Horcoff's Left Wing

59 votes

Gagner's Right Wing

16 votes

Second Toughs Center

41 votes

Backup Goalie

15 votes

Enforcer

6 votes

Seventh Defenseman

13 votes

Other (Let us know in the comments)

3 votes

153 votes | Poll has closed

Springfield Falcons Quality of Competition Update

Jonathan Willis — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:36:41 -0000

More photos » by Jimmy Jeong - AP

8 months ago: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Theo Peckham (49), left, fights with Los Angeles Kings' Brian Boyle (22) during the first period of NHL hockey game in Edmonton on Tuesday, April 7, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Jimmy Jeong)

Browse more photos »

As regular readers know, earlier this year I devised a scheme for calculating the quality of competition that players in the AHL were facing. It involved looking at who was on the ice for goal events, and assigning them a rating based on their total points. I did this work manually for the Springfield Falcons - those rankings and the method behind them can be found here.

Gabriel Desjardins of Behind the Net fame has done me one better. He's run my formula with some slight modifications (explained after the jump) and he's done it for the entire AHL. Desjardins was nice enough to send a copy my way, and what follows below is his list, with this summer's additions (Minard, Arsene, Brennan) added in for good measure.

The changes Desjardins made to my formula were as follows:

He used only 5v5 scoring for his player ratings (whereas I had used total scoring)
He added in defensemen as well as forwards
He ran the entire season in one go, whereas I had done it in two attempts
He used a computer, so naturally the human error portion of these rankings drops significantly

I'm not certain that scoring reflects quality for defensemen as well as it does for forwards, but other than that Desjardins' rankings should be improved in quality, and they certainly reflect an improvement in comprehensiveness.

Forwards

Liam Reddox: .309
Tim Sestito: .295
Tyler Spurgeon: .286
*Chris Minard: .283
Ryan Stone: .281
Colin McDonald: .281
Derek Bekar: .279
Guillaume Lefebvre: .278
Ryan Potulny: .270
Vyacheslav Trukhno: .270
Gilbert Brule: .268
Carl Corazzini: .267
Geoff Paukovich: .264
Jordan Eberle: .263
Charles Linglet: .260
Bryan Lerg: .259
Rob Schremp: .253
Ryan O'Marra: .250
Shane Willis: .246
*Kip Brennan: .245

Thoughts:

People who remain confused about Liam Reddox's elevation to the big club should know that this is one of the biggest reasons why. He's a superior player at the AHL level in every way.
The Oilers seem to have acquired a very decent player in Minard, who did a fine job outscoring quality competition last year. We haven't really talked about Minard as a challenger for a roster spot, but it's worth remembering that he's played 35 games for Pittsburgh over the past two seasons (20 last year), and adds some size (6'1", 200lbs). He'll challenge for a role on this team.
I hope Brennan's a way more effective fighter than Guillaume Lefebvre, because everything I've seen indicates that Lefebvre's the superior player.
There are a lot of guys in the mix for fourth line roles, and while Brule seems ordained to get a job he will have to fight off Minard, Stone, Potulny and Reddox in camp. Rob Schremp's in there somewhere too, but probably near the bottom of that list.

Defensemen

Theo Peckham: .286
Taylor Chorney: .279
Mathieu Roy: .275
Cody Wild: .274
Bryan Young: .266
*Dean Arsene: .264
Ryan Constant: .262
Rob Bina: .259
Mike Gabinet: .254
Sebastien Bisaillon: .245

Thoughts:

This is one of the biggest reasons I'm so bullish on Peckham. He's already playing against guys who are close to NHL-calibre, and he brings those other things (size, but more importantly nastiness) that are coveted in defensemen.
Taylor Chorney improves a fair bit by Desjardins' count, which does help explain his struggles last year. Still there isn't much separation between him, Wild and Roy.
I'm hesitant to put Arsene this low in the rankings; it's always a little perilous to compare guys across teams and anecdotal evidence would suggest that he should be in the group right after Peckham.
With the possible exception of the 6'3" Gabinet, I don't really see the bottom three players on this list as AHL'ers.

2009 NHL Free Agency / Teams by Cap Space / Unsigned UFA's and RFA's

Robert L — Sat, 04 Jul 2009 19:19:41 -0000

This is a listing of NHL teams by order of remaining cap space as of July 4. The Islanders top the list with approximately $23M left to spend. The Sharks have just under $2M remaining. The list is helpful in determining which team are closest to filling out their 2009-10 lineup. As one can see, there is much work to be done at both ends of the spectrum. The numbers figures are based on totals given by NHL Numbers.com.

1 - New York Islanders: $23.265 (18)

UFA: Andy Hilbert C 28, Dean McAmmond C 36, Mike Sillinger C 38, Thomas Pock D 27, Yann Danis G 28, Joey MacDonald G 29.

RFA: Nate Thompson C 24, Jeremy Colliton C 24, Jamie Fraser D 23, Jack Hillen D 23.

2 - Phoenix Coyotes: $21.972 (18)

UFA: Brian McGrattan R 27, Dmitri Kalinin D 29, Ken Klee D 38.

RFA: Nigel Dawes L 24, Joakim Lindstrom C 25, Enver Lisin R 23, Scottie Upshall R 25, Daniel Winnik C 24, Keith Yandle D 22.

3 - Atlanta Thrashers: $19.599 (15)

RFA: Eric Perrin C 33.

UFA: Kari Lehtonen G 25, Colby Armstrong R 26, Jim Slater C 26, Boris Valabik D 23.

4 - Nashville Predators: $17.913 (16)

UFA: Radek Bonk C 33, Scott Nichol C 34, Greg de Vries D 36.

RFA: Ryan Jones R 25, Antti Pihlstrom L 24,.

5 - New York Rangers: $16.436 (13)

UFA: Blair Betts C 29, Mark Bell L 28, Patrick Rissmiller C 30, Paul Mara D 29, Derek Morris D 30.

RFA: Christopher Higgins R 26, Ryan Callahan R 24, Brandon Dubinsky C 23, Lauri Korpikoski L 22, Nikolai Zherdev L 24, Corey Potter D 25.

6 - Anaheim Ducks: $14.295 (17)

UFA: Rob Niedermayer F 34, Todd Marchant C 33, Francois Beauchemin D 29, Bret Hedican D 38.

RFA: James Wisniewski D 25.

7 - Tampa Bay Lightning: $14.295 (17)

UFA: Matt Pettinger L 28, Wade Brookbank L 31, Jason Ward R 30, Marek Malik D 34, Josef Melichar D 30, Cory Murphy D 31, Noah Welch D 26.

RFA: Martins Karsums R 23, Radek Smolenak L 22, Matt Lashoff D 22, Matt Smaby D 24, Mike Lundin D 24, Karri Ramo G 22, Mike McKenna G 26.

8 - Columbus Blue Jackets: $13.313 (20)

UFA: Chris Gratton C 33, Manny Malhotra C 29, Michael Peca C 35, Jason Williams C 28, Christian Backman D 29.

RFA: Jiri Novotny C 25, Marc Methot D 24, Ole-Kristian Tollefsen D 25.

9 - Dallas Stars: $13.193 (19)

UFA: Sergei Zubov D 38, Brendan Morrison C 33, Joel Lundqvist C 27, Mark Parrish R 32, Landon Wilson R 34, Tobias Stephan G 25, Darryl Sydor D 37.

RFA: Mark Fistric D 23.

10 - St. Louis Blues: $12.295 (22)

UFA: Trent Whitfield C 32, Dan Hinote R 32, Jay McKee D 31, Manny Legace G 36.

RFA: Brandon Crombeen R 23, Chris Porter C 25, Steve Regier L 24, Roman Polak D 23, Jeff Woywitka D 25, Marek Schwarz G 23.

11 - New Jersey Devils: $12.129

UFA: Brendan Shanahan L 40, Kevin Weekes G 34, Niclas Havelid D NJ.

RFA: Travis Zajac C 24.

12 - Toronto Maple Leafs: $12.022 (20)

UFA: Brad May L 37, Bates Battaglia L 33, Andre Deveaux C 25, Boyd Devereaux C 31, Jeff Hamilton C 31, Kris Newbury C 27, Ben Ondrus R 27, Jay Harrison D 26, Jamie Heward D 38, Martin Gerber G 34, Olaf Kolzig G 39, Curtis Joseph G 42.

RFA: Jeremy Williams R 25, Justin Pogge G 23, Jaime Sifers D 26, Ryan Hollweg C 26.

13 - Chicago Blackhawks: $11.797

UFA: Aaron Johnson D 26.

RFA: Cam Barker D 23, Troy Brouwer R 23, Ben Eager L 25, Colin Fraser C 24, Kris Versteeg R 23.

14 - Colorado Avalanche: $11.654 (15)

UFA: Joe Sakic F 39, Ben Guite R 30, Brian Willsie R 31, Andrew Raycroft G 29.

RFA: Kyle Cumiskey D 22, David Jones R 24, Cody McCormick C 26.

15 - Montreal Canadiens: $10.454 (16)

UFA: Alexei Kovalev F 36, Saku Koivu C 34, Alex Tanguay L 29, Robert Lang C 38, Mathieu Schneider D 40, Tom Kostopoulos R 30, Mathieu Dandenault D 33, Patrice Brisebois D 38, Francis Bouillon D 33, Marc Denis G 31.

RFA: Tomas Plekanec C 26, Matt D'Agostini R 22, Guillaume Latendresse R 22, Kyle Chipchura C 23, Gregory Stewart L 23.

16 - Los Angeles Kings: $10.285 (21)

UFA: Derek Armstrong F 36, Denis Gauthier D 32, Kyle Calder L 30.

RFA: Jack Johnson D 22, Teddy Purcell R 23.

17 - Washington Capitals: $9.720 (15)

UFA: Viktor Kozlov C 34, Alexandre Giroux C 28, Bryan Helmer D 26, Brent Johnson G 32.

RFA: Jeff Schultz D 23, Shaone Morrisonn D 26, Milan Jurcina D 26, Eric Fehr R 23, Boyd Gordon R 25.

18 - Buffalo Sabres: $8.976 (16)

UFA: Matt Ellis L 24, Dominic Moore C 28, Andrew Peters L 29, Teppo Numminen D 40, Maxim Afinogeno F 29,

RFA: Andrej Sekera D 23, Drew Stafford R 23, Clarke MacArthur L 24, Patrick Kaleta R 23.

19 - Florida Panthers: $8.405 (18)

UFA: Ville Peltonen L 36, Richard Zednik L 33, Jassen Cullimore D 36, Nick Boynton D 30.

RFA: Anthony Stewart C 24, Steve Eminger D 25, Tanner Glass L 25.

20 - Carolina Hurricanes: $8.083 (18)

UFA: Ryan Bayda L 28, Dennis Seidenberg D 27.

RFA: Tuomo Ruutu C 26, Anton Babchuk D 25.

21 - Vancouver Canucks: $7.282 (18)

UFA: Mats Sundin C 38, Jason Krog C 33, Rob Davison D 29, Ossi Vaananen D 28, Curtis Sanford G 29, Michel Ouellet R 27.

RFA: Shane O' Brien D 25. Kyle Wellwood C 26, Jannik Hansen R 23.

22 - Minnesota Wild: $6.296 (20)

UFA: Stephane Veilleux L 27, Krys Kolanos C 27, Marc-Andre Bergeron D 28, Kurtis Foster D 27, Martin Skoula D 29.

RFA: Dan Fritsche C 23, Benoit Pouliot L 22, Kyle Brodziak C 25, Josh Harding G 25.

23 - Edmonton Oilers: $6.404 (20)

UFA: Ales Kotalik R 30, Dany Sabourin G 28.

RFA: Liam Reddox L 23, Gilbert Brule C 22, Ryan Potulny C 24, Rob Schremp C 22, Denis Grebeshkov D 25, Ladislav Smid D 23.

24 - Detroit Red Wings: $5.554 (16)

UFA: Darren McCarty R 37, Aaron Downey R 34, Chris Chelios D 47.

RFA: Jiri Hudler C 25, Ville Leino L 25.

25 - Boston Bruins: $5.340 (18)

UFA: Stephane Yelle F 35, P.J. Axelsson L 34, Manny Fernandez G 34.

RFA: Phil Kessel F 21, Matt Hunwick D 24.

26 - Ottawa Senators: $4.649 (22)

UFA: Mike Comrie C 28.

RFA: Brendan Bell D 26, Brian Elliott G 24.

27 - Pittsburgh Penguins: $3.137 (19)

UFA: Mike Zigomanis C 28, James Connor L 26, Miroslav Satan L 34, Petr Sykora R 32, Janne Pesonen L 27, Philippe Boucher D 36.

RFA: Paul Bissonnette R 24, Tim Wallace R 24, Ben Lovejoy D 25, John Curry G 25.

28 - Calgary Flames: $3.053 (19)

UFA: Todd Bertuzzi R 34, Andre Roy R 34, Rhett Warrener D 33.

RFA: Dustin Boyd C 22.

29 - Philadelphia Flyers: $2.125 (20)

UFA: Josh Gratton L 26, Boyd Kane L 31, Andrew Alberts D 28, Lasse Kukkonen D 27, Martin Biron G 31, Antero Niittymaki G 29.

RFA: Jared Ross C 26, Danny Syvret D 24.

30 - San Jose Sharks: $1.774 (16)

UFA: Claude Lemieux R 43, Jeremy Roenick C 39, Tom Cavanagh R 27, Alexei Semenov D 28, Mike Grier R 34, Marcel Goc C 25, Tomas Plihal L 26, Lukas Kaspar L 23.

RFA: Torrey Mitchell C 24, Thomas Greiss G 23, Brad Staubitz R 24.

The Depth Chart at Forward

Jonathan Willis — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 20:09:24 -0000

Lowetide's been saying variants of this for (literally) years now, and I agree whole-heartedly: NHL teams only experience success when they have NHL players. Since it seems that we're likely to enter another summer of change, I thought it might be nice to review the depth chart.

Now of course Lowetide just finished up his excellent series doing the same thing, but what I have in mind is something a little bit different. I'd like to take a look at where the current roster players would slot in on a contending team. Here are my definitions:

First Line: Players capable of going power vs. power with the best in the league and coming out ahead; players should also be capable of legitimate offensive production.

Second Line: Offensive specialists. These players might not match up against the best players in the league, but they ought to be able to take advantage of their lesser workload.

Third Line: Defensive specialists. These players should be able to be sent on the ice against anyone in the league without bleeding goals against; physical play is preferred but not required, and offense is optional.

Fourth Line: Everyone else. These are players without a complete game who contribute in some way (special teams, enforcers, etc.) and might slide up the depth chart if the opportunity arises. These are checkers who may not be ready for third-line duty, or scorers not ready for second line duty. A mixed bag.

Here's how I see the Oilers:

Keep in mind, I only list players in places they've had success before; in other words, while guys like Brodziak and Pouliot may actually be third liners, they've never showed an ability to hang on to that role.

First Line: Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff*
Second Line: Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, Ales Kotalik*, Robert Nilsson*, Patrick O'Sullivan, Dustin Penner,
Third Line: Ethan Moreau*, Fernando Pisani
Fourth Line: Kyle Brodziak, Gilbert Brule, Jean-Francois Jacques, Steve MacIntyre, Ryan Potulny, Marc Pouliot, Liam Reddox, Zack Stortini

* denotes players who may be slotted too highly, although I feel this is where they really belong on the depth chart right now.

The Oilers do have a log-jam of forwards, but they're concentrated in specific areas - generally softer matchup areas, and that isn't a recipe for success. Granted, a player like Patrick O'Sullivan might slide up next season, but the greatest weakness of many a G.M. is betting on maybes (as Kevin Prendergast illustrated this past season in Springfield). Players should be slotted in a role where they are all but certain to have success; if they show an ability to slide up the depth chart the team than has an embarrassment of riches that can either be dealt for help elsewhere or used as insurance against injury.

The most blatant problem is the lack of a third-line centre. While first-line forward might appear more blatant, I understand that players with that skillset don't grow on trees (as the Oilers have illustrated since the Ryan Smyth trade) but there's absolutely no excuse not to have a reliable centre between Moreau and Pisani when there is no shortage of available candidates.

The log-jam is for second-line positions. Gagner/Cogliano both want the centre role, while no fewer than four players could line up on the wings. At a guess, Kotalik will be let go (which may actually be a mistake, given his specialties) and Nilsson seems all but certain to be sent out following a disastrous season. Gagner's potential means that he's going nowhere, and trading Penner now would be both difficult and likely bring an overly-low return to boot. Assuming the Oilers add another LW to play with Horcoff and Hemsky, that leaves a battle for the final spot between Cogliano and O'Sullivan, both fine young players. I wonder if one of them might be used as bait at the draft; while I'd like to keep both it might make sense to do it given the current roster makeup. Worst case scenario, Penner and O'Sullivan take the top two LW roles, and while not ideal I could handle that.

Adding a Malhotra or Pahlsson would make a world of difference for this team; even bringing in someone like Chris Gratton would help. There's a lot of talent on this team; the roster needs some careful scalpel work, not a blood-letting.