SB Nation - Dustin Penner

Oilers News and Notes

Derek Zona — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:23:18 -0000

Hey look at that! It's a holding penalty on Dustin Penner. I'd love to talk to someone at the league offices and get an explanation as to how that is a hold on the Edmonton player. I, and everyone else that watched the game, saw David Steckel attempting to molest Penner as he carried the puck. When that didn't work, he tried to hold him. Penner pushed him away and....got called for a hold.

David Staples has a breakdown on the rumors that Tambellini is shopping the veteran core of this team and comes to this conclusion:

I also give it credence because it makes sense that the Oil would be testing the market value of these three players. This Oilers team isn't going to win big, or win at all, any time soon. Souray and Visnovsky have a limited shelf life as peak NHL players. Put this together and trading them would likely work for them as well as for the Oilers.

I still have my doubts because we've seen nothing but dithering thus far from Tambellini.

Interesting items below the fold:

Stealing money? My bet is that he was wearing a Moreau or an O'Sullivan sweater.

Another guy misses the point, scoring isn't the overreaching problem in Edmonton. Preventing goals is the problem. But sure, they need another scorer.

Birdwatchers Anonymous with a great breakdown of the Thrasher's shooting problems.

Bringing Back The Glory has a late-night donut with Robert Nilsson. Should have invited him over for a Turducken.

I missed one because I had no idea who was wearing the 'C' in Buffalo.

U.S. Versus viewers, take heart - Change is coming!

Mirtle's got a great collection of information on the Reggie Fleming news.

David Staples has done outstanding work on the arena project, past and present at Cult of Hockey

Edmonton Oilers Injuries

Questionable

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jean-Francois Jacques	other-excused	12/21/2009

Out (IR / Out / Suspended / Physically unvailable)

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Mike Comrie	other-illness	11/17/2009
Nikolai Khabibulin	back	11/21/2009
Fernando Pisani	other-excused	11/12/2009
Marc Pouliot	other-excused	09/30/2009
Ales Hemsky	shoulder	11/27/2009

Some Perspective on Penner's Start

Derek Zona — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:20:43 -0000

Left winger Petr Klima of the Edmonton Oilers (right) and defenseman Steve Duchesne of the Los Angeles Kings tangle up during a game at the Great Western Forum in Inglewood, California. Klima immediately apologized. via cdn.picapp.com

View full size photo »

Dustin Penner's blistering start has slowed a bit, but Big Pun continues to carry the team on a nightly basis. He's on pace for 40 goals, something that hasn't been accomplished in Edmonton since Petr Klima in 1990 He's on pace for 88 points, the most for any Oiler since Doug Weight's 90 in 2000. Let's check the twenty-one years A.G.

Year	Player	Goals	Player	Assists	Player	Points	Player	+/-
1988	Carson	49	Messier	61	Kurri	102	Muni	43
1989	Messier	45	Messier	84	Messier	129	Gregg	24
1990	Klima	40	Messier	52	Tikkanen	69	Klima	24
1991	Damphousse	38	Damphousse	51	Damphousse	89	Maciver	20
1992	Klima	32	Nicholls	32	Klima	48	Gelinas	3
1993	Arnott	33	Weight	50	Weight	74	Arnott	1
1994	Oliver	16	Weight	33	Weight	40	Kennedy	2
1995	Ciger	31	Weight	79	Weight	104	Satan	0
1996	Smyth	39	Weight	61	Weight	82	Marchment	13
1997	Weight	26	Weight	44	Weight	70	Tie	9
1998	Guerin	30	Guerin	34	Guerin	64	Poti	10
1999	Smyth	28	Weight	51	Weight	72	Smith	16
2000	Smyth	31	Weight	65	Weight	90	Tie	15
2001	Comrie	33	Niinimaa	39	Tie	60	Comrie	16
2002	Smyth	27	Marchant	40	Smyth	61	Reasoner	19
2003	Smyth	23	Smyth	36	Smyth	59	Ulanov	18
2004
2005	Smyth	36	Hemsky	58	Hemsky	77	Staios	10
2006	Smyth	31	Hemsky	40	Tie	53	Thoresen	-1
2007	Penner	23	Hemsky	51	Hemsky	71	Nilsson	8
2008	Tie	23	Hemsky	43	Hemsky	66	Grebeshkov	12
2009	Penner	44	Penner	44	Penner	88	Penner	32

Penner's projected goal total is good for 3rd over this time period. His pace would tie him for 13th in assists and 6th in points. He would join Mark Messier, Vincent Damphousse, Doug Weight and Ryan Smyth as Oilers who have led the team in Goals, Assists and Points.

He's also on pace to accomplish a feat that only one other player in the history of the Oilers has been able to pull off -- lead the team in Goals, Assists, Points, and +/-.

Sometimes, the Oilers Aren't Killing Me

Benjamin Massey — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 23:30:15 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

9 days ago: Edmonton Oilers goalie Jeff Deslauriers makes a save in the third period of an NHL hockey game against the St. Louis Blues, Friday, Dec. 11, 2009, in St. Louis. The Oilers overcame a 3-0 deficit to win 5-3. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

Browse more photos »

Over my time at the Copper & Blue, I've developed a reputation as a bit of a ranting, negative lunatic. There's a very good reason I've acquired this reputation: it's accurate. That's pretty much exactly what I am. When the Oilers lose, I'll tear my face off with grief and when they win I'll settle for pulling my nose hairs out bemoaning how close they were to losing.

It's a stressful sort of fandom I live. One filled with black clouds of grim angst occasionally broken up by rays of bright sunshine which serve only to make the darkness seem all the more oppressive.

But in truth, I am not all despair all the time. Sometimes... just sometimes... the Oilers manage to surprise me in an astonishing little way. And so, for your viewing enjoyment and to give myself a break from a constant stream of negativity, gloom, and angst, I present to you six lovely little surprises for the holiday season that the Edmonton Oilers have provided me so far this year.

1) The goaltending isn't nearly as bad as I'd feared. Early in the season, I gave Nikolai Khabibulin the nickname "Maginot Line" because he was big, expensive, immobile, outdated, and largely useless. Jeff Deslauriers I didn't give a nickname but, then, I didn't have to because he was Jeff Deslauriers so obviously he was going to be terrible. It would have been like kicking a puppy into traffic to pick on him any more.

Well, neither Deslauriers nor Khabibulin have been terrific by any means, but they haven't been bad. Nikolai Khabibulin's contract was terrible but, a few foibles aside, his play wasn't. With a .909 save percentage and an almost tolerable 3.03 goals-against average while playing through the worst of Edmonton's defensive injuries, Khabibulin wasn't shooting the lights out but was pretty much middle of the pack for NHL starters. He's being paid like an All-Star, but I'm trying to look at his play, not his contract.

Of course, then he strained his back reaching too far for the remote or something and now we're putting up with Jeff Deslauriers. Who's... actually been a bit better than Khabibulin. A .916 save percentage, a 2.61 goals-against average, and his first career NHL shutout. The sample size is small, but Deslauriers is fifteenth in the NHL among goaltenders who've played at least ten games in save percentage. He's tied with Henrik Lundqvist, for God's sake. He's ahead of Roberto Luongo! And he's playing for the Edmonton Oilers!

That's not shabby. That's not shabby at all.

2) Ladislav Smid is quietly becoming brilliant. Obviously, playing with Lubomir Visnovsky helps (more on him later). But the book on Ladislav Smid used to be that he's was a crappy version of Tommy Albelin. Then, starting last season, we started to see more of a physical edge in his game. He got into guys' faces, he didn't take no guff, he started to "clear his neighbourhood" as the astronomers say. Then this year, his strides have been palpable. He's still not a Derian Hatcher sort, but he's getting there.

It is an axiom, at least to me, that defensive defensemen take forever to develop. Defending is hard, guys. You can't just work on a big slapshot or some fancy stickhandling moves and still put up results while learning the game. Until you figure out exactly how things work in the show you are going to get run over. For a long time, Smid was getting killed, but more and more he's figuring it out. We saw the same thing with former Oiler Matt Greene, only to trade him just as the light was starting to go on. Every player in that mold goes through the same thing and the trick is figuring out which kids will eventually get it. Smid is starting to get it.

3) Who the hell are our forwards, and why are they doing so okay? Ryan O'Marra, Colin McDonald, Ryan Potulny, Gilbert Brule, Liam Reddox, Ryan Stone oh god I could keep going. No, it's not the second and third lines of the Springfield Falcons, it's a list of guys we've called up, plugged into the starting lineup, and told "surprise! you're NHL players!"

Well, the results could have been a lot worse, couldn't they?

Colin McDonald, that big palooka, scored a goal. Ryan O'Marra, who I ragged on so much he was on the verge of becoming a running joke, looked better in the NHL than he ever has in the AHL. Liam Reddox slumped towards the end but looked so promising at the beginning of his callup I pronounced him the new Fernando Pisani. Gilbert Brule is this team's fourth-leading scorer (seriously), and no matter what Derek says that's pretty damned impressive in any context. He has nine goals and twelve assists for twenty-one points in twenty-nine games. His previous career highs were nine goals and ten assists for nineteen points in seventy-eight games with Columbus in 2006-07.

Ryan Stone, meanwhile, has been getting positive notices for everything but his scoring. He's banged, crashed, made life miserable for opposing players, looked after himself in his own zone, and chipped in five assists in thirteen games. His return from injury immediately made our fourth line into a credible opponent, and that's been vital to the Oilers' recent success.

Not one of these guys were being counted on to be any sort of positive at the beginning of the year, and yet they've all helped the team, some in big ways, others in small ones.

4) There's a lot of try in this team. Much as I hate to resort to crappy colour-man clichés, it's true. Remember the doldrums of the last couple of seasons where the Oilers were just going through the motions? Crappy players playing a crappy game and afterwards Craig MacTavish would say things at the press conference like "I don't know what else I can say to these guys. They need to figure things out for themselves."?

Yeah, that's not happening anymore. We've had a couple tremendous comebacks already this season, and we've had a couple pretty ugly losses where the team kept fighting until the conclusion anyway. Losing is a lot more bearable when you can see the team cares about it.

5) How incredible is Lubomir Visnovsky? Really damned incredible, that's how incredible. He's been healthy, for the most part, which was a pleasant treat in of itself. But it gets better. His seven goals is tied for third on the team, behind only Dustin Penner and Gilbert Brule. His twenty-three points is second, although he's only one up on Ales Hemsky, the human incarnation of how much the hockey gods hate us. He's +12, which on a team this crappy is hard to do. Among Oilers to play at least twenty games, he leads in time on ice per game. His .767 points per game pace is right back at the élite level he showed from 2005 to 2007 in Los Angeles.

He's sixth in the league in defensive scoring and he's delivering surprisingly excellent defensive results. He's sixth in the league in plus/minus among defensemen, which sounds like I'm making it up. There's nothing not to love about Lubomir Visnovsky's season so far. Some say that he needs to shoot more. Maybe, but I'm reluctant to mess with an All-Star season on a non-playoff team.

6) Special teams haven't been useless. Considering the dearth of offensive creativity and the mediocre lot of defensive forwards we've dealt ourselves, you'd expect both the powerplay and the penalty kill to be completely dire. And certainly the penalty kill has been pretty bad, if not awful, with a 78.8% kill rate plunking them 23rd on the table. To tell you the truth, I'd have put us a lot worse than 23rd at the beginning of the year and that was without considering all the injuries we've picked up, so even that ugly number carries a glittering gem of consolation. If you can throw out guys like Steve Staios, Zack Stortini, and Jason Strudwick on an NHL penalty kill and come up 23rd, things aren't so bad.

The powerplay, on the other hand! Just as devoid of personnel, just as wracked by injury, so ill-conceived that people were trying to talk themselves into Mike Comrie as a legitimate powerplay specialist, and yet they're hitting at a 19.5% rate! That's fourteenth in the league! That's average! I am delighted with average. Whenever any aspect of the Oilers is average, considering what a below-average team they are, that's something. Particularly when the powerplay has been such a history struggle for the Oilers over the last several seasons. It's nice to see results improving even when the team is not.

Edmonton - Florida post-game : Scorecoff!

Bruce McCurdy — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 06:50:32 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

13 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' Shawn Horcoff (10) scores the game-winning goal against Florida Panthers goalie Tomas Vokoun in a shootout in an NHL hockey game in Sunrise, Fla., Monday, Dec. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)

Browse more photos »

Some days I get tired of reading a bunch of negativist bullshit around the Oilogosphere about how the Oilers should just roll over and tank the season because it's obvious that they suck and have no hope. Today is one of those days.

Oilers have responded to their latest kick in the crotch -- a season-ending injury to their perennial leading scorer, Ales Hemsky -- by going on a little run, being unlucky to only get a point against the Sharks, losing early in Vancouver but bouncing back to win three in a row, all on the road. After soundly trouncing the mighty Wings 4-1 right in the Joe, the Oil have won a pair of tight ones, coming back from 2-0 and 2-1 deficits against Dallas and Florida respectively to get the games to overtime, then winning both in the shootout on a decisive "goal" by Shawn Horcoff.

Tonight the Oil were outshot 35-28 with the difference occurring entirely on special teams where the Panthers were shooting from everywhere, although in the end both teams score 1 powerplay goal. At even strength the score was also 1-1; shots were 21-21; missed shots were 9-9; and the Oilers blocked 7 shots to Florida's 6. Seems pretty even to me. There were nervous moments to be sure, especially anytime Jeff Deslauriers came out of his crease to handle the grenade, while the veteran defence pair of Staios and Strudwick had a difficult night. On the plus side Lubo Visnovsky had a sublime game, finding the scoresheet twice with a slick goalmouth pass to Horcoff for the game's first goal and then a seeing eye shot from the point that Dustin Penner tipped home to knot the count at 2 early in the third. JDD had a solid game between the pipes when he actually was between the pipes; Horcoff scored in the real game and then again in the ersatz one; and Robert Nilsson had his third splendid game in a row.

Stats of interest after the jump:

Defence Corsi
-------------------
Visnovsky +13
Smid +3
Gilbert 0
Souray -2
Strudwick -7
Staios -11

Forward Corsi
---------------------
Stortini +8
Stone +7
Nilsson +6
Gagner +1
Potulny -1
Jacques -1
O'Sullivan -2
Cogliano -4
Moreau -4
Penner -4
Horcoff -5
Brule -6

Ethan Moreau: 4 shots, 3 hits, 2 blocks

Sheldon Souray: 2 shots, 4 hits, 2 blocks

Zack Stortini: EV shots on goal ON: Oilers 6, Panthers 0

Lubo Visnovsky: EV shots on goal ON: Oilers 11, Panthers 2

Jeff Deslauriers: 35 shots, 2 GA, .943 Sv%

* * *

Next up: @ Tampa Bay, Friday, 17:30 MST

Oilers Roundtable Discussion, 1/3 of the way through the season - Part II

Derek Zona — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 18:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Christopher J. Morris - AP

Browse more photos »

It's been all about disappointments and Dustin Penner thus far for the Oilers. Who's has suffered the biggest letdown, and besides Big Pun, who has surprised the group?

Our lineup includes: the prolix Shepso, combining modern western philosophy and hockey at Bringing Back The Glory; Chappy, owner of This is Not a Love Song; HBomb, everyone's favorite bartender in the Oilers' 'sphere; Dawgbone, the pragmatic commentor that writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; Doogie2k, the go-to guy on physiology working at Still No Name; everyone's favorite antagonist Ender, Doogie's partner in crime at Still No Name; and SumOil, a frequent commenter here and the biggest optimist that any of us know.

Find the entire series here, tagged 2009 midseason roundtable

The conversation continues after the jump.

3. Who or what has been the biggest disappointment thus far?

Shepso: I hate to say it, as I called him as the player to watch last time (though I did also pray to the gods for Penner) has been Patrick O’Sullivan. He started off strong and has just disappeared, shootout brilliance not withstanding. He tried really hard and gave great efforts at the start of the season, but the well appears to be dry now. Aside from Patty O, the return of Grebs on Acid hasn’t been fun. I hope he gets it out of his system while he’s on the IR. The Wall really hasn’t been great, but I know he too is trying very hard and has been working with a mostly AHL caliber of defense in front of him so I can’t justify ripping into him just now. I’ll save that for year three of his contract. Finally, Nilsson’s horrific -12 makes him my absolute worst goat of the team thus far.

As far as situational disappointments, I assumed Tom Renney’s PK would be a lot better thus far. I am also really confused about the deployment of Andrew Cogliano. He has speed, he has hands, he has o-zone awareness, yet he has been lugging around dead weight for much of the season. His game is more suited to the wing, yet he is insisting upon playing center while Duff Man was apparently brought in to play the wing. I like 91 centering 18 and 46 a lot more than 13.

Finally, and this is more of a heartbreaker then a disappointment; the flare-up of Fernando’s colitis is just so tragic for one of the best guys to play for this team in a number of years. I know this sentiment has been and will continue to be echoed throughout the blogging community and the city of Edmonton as a whole. Good Luck Fernando, we all miss you and wish you luck and a quick recovery.

Chappy: He's starting to turn it around, but I'd really like to see a bit more from Shawn Horcoff.

HBomb: Patrick O'Sullivan would get my vote. The guy can shoot the puck, but he has no finish whatsoever. He's like Joffrey Lupul in that he's got a slow release and takes time to get his shot off at full power, but when he does, it's impressive. Unlike Lupul, however, O'Sullivan's skill-set prevent him from achieving absolute uselessness when he's not scoring. He's not a lost cause, but at the same time, he's probably very available as a trade asset if Tambellini ever decides to try and improve this hockey club.

Dawgbone: Without a doubt Shawn Horcoff. In past years when he wasn't scoring he was at least generating scoring chances and doing a good job at getting the puck going the other way. This year nothing was going right for him early, and while things have gotten better, he still isn't having much luck (it seems any mistake he makes ends up in the back of the net). What's really troublesome is that he's not even taking draws anymore. Hopefully that's just a sign of tightness in his shoulder as opposed to an actual injury. Another disappointment this year has been Andrew Cogliano. 28 shots in 23 games is not enough, especially with his speed and ability to create his own shot. His biggest downfall has been missing the net. Among all forwards who have 20 or more SOG, Cogliano has the worst % of actually getting his shots on net (28 SOG on 39 attempts). That's defenceman territory.

Doogie2k: Probably Patty O'Lanterns. I swear, that kid must have an extra NOT gate in the circuitry that decides whether to pass or shoot: so many times, I've seen him pass when he had a lane, or shoot a muffin into the goalie's logo when there's been an open man. And speaking of muffins to the chest, I've also never seen so many shots directly at the goaltender from an alleged goal-scorer. Seriously, when was the last time there were so many bad decisions in someone paid that much? (Oh, wait, I watched Alexei Kovalev in Montreal last year. Never mind.)

Ender: Cogliano. Yes, he's been stapled to Moreau, but with the guy's skill level there's no way he shouldn't have charged up the roster like Gagner has. Maybe if their roles were reversed their stats would be as well, but Cogliano seems to have more or less given up on a 1st or 2nd line role, which is super disappointing - though it'll likely help with the cap.

Other than that, obviously my biggest disappointment has been seeing a healthy OIlers team for what? 2 games this season?

SumOil: I will like to answer this question as who AND what has been the biggest disappointment. There are many things wrong with this team-lack of intensity, lack of actual NHL players etc..etc..but the two biggest disappointments so far have been

a. Gilbert b. Passive Oilers management.

Tom Gilbert: Gilbert has been one of my favorite oiler in the last 2 seasons. After his 45 point season last year, I expected Gilbert to be an even better defenseman this season. I thought he will get way better defensively while regressing a little in his offesive production. This season has been a disappointment. His offensive game seems non-existent and he hasnt inspired any confidence with his defensive play either. He has regressed so much since last season, that if traded for Stafford at this moment, we will have robbed Buffalo. Gilbert is a good, smart hockey player just entering his prime, and its time he starts playing like one.

Oilers Management: Oilers management has been as passive as a monk this season. They seem to have an excuse for everything and are probably more optimistic about this team's chances of making the playoffs than a certain fan we all know ;). Make a damn move. We need a defensively responsible center who can win face-offs(after Hemsky's injury, we also need a top 6 forward but that can be a start). If not that, make a trade for the sake of making one. This might wake up the players who have gotten too comfortable with their lazy play knowing that their jobs are secure. There are many teams that struggling like the Oilers and will like to trade to send a message to the players. But no our GM wants to wait till 2020 untill the roster gets healthy. If we have learnt one thing in the last 3 years, it is that some one or the other is always injured(flukey one or not) and a definite plan B is a necessity.

4. Who, aside from Dustin Penner, has been the most pleasant surprise?

Shepso: I’m thrilled about the emergence of the real Dustin Penner. Last year I wrote about the unfortunate mistake that was MacT’s disciplinary strategy and the effect it must have had on DP’s development. Feel free to read it - I think it was my best work last season. Anyhoo, I am really rather proud of how he has rebounded and think he is the best player on the team by leaps and bounds. However, it is one of the other pieces of the former Heatley puzzle that has been the most pleasant surprise; Ladi Smid +7. That is what we needed from him. He makes great decisions with the puck, he hits, his skating is much better, and he just looks really happy to be on this team right now. That to me is the best news of the year. Quite frankly, the kid has been an absolute gem, and when paired with Lubo, looks capable of being an all-star shutdown defenceman.

Chappy: Having seen a lot of rubber in their own end, I think our goaltending has been our best asset so far. I think Nikolai Khabibulin has held the team together nicely since his gaffe in game 1. Should Khabibulin need a break (and I see him needing a few more than he's gotten so far) Deslauriers is showing that he can fill in nicely for 20-25 games. I'm very impressed at our goaltending tandem. Here's hoping Khabibulin comes back sooner rather than later from his back flare-up.

HBomb: Gilbert Brule's showing some promise. Yes, he's got some warts on his game, but he can finish and his faceoff ability isn't Cogliano-esque. Before he was hurt, Ryan Stone was the runaway winner in this category. Did anyone expect him to even make the hockey club?

Dawgbone: Vishnovsky. We all knew how good he was before he got hurt, but the question was could he come back from it? I think that answer is a resounding yes. Aside from needing some time early in the year to get back into gear, he picked up where he left off last year. He's been so good that I'm convinced that the Oilers make the playoffs last year if he didn't get hurt. Another pleasant surprise has been Brule. I was never a big fan of his, he reminded me a lot of Jani Rita. Very obvious skills that jumped out, but never in a position to use them. In the games I saw last year Brule was running around all over the ice and was never in position to make a play. This year he's been much better at finding lanes and attacking from in front of the puck as opposed to from behind the puck.

Doogie2k: I'm gonna stick with my original answer and say Ladislav Smid. Sure, playing with Lubomir Visnovsky will do that for you, and yeah, he was my personal Golden Rooster for the most recent Blackhawks game, but in most of the games I've watched, his decision-making has been much better and much calmer, he's been more willing to pinch to keep a play alive, and he's lost his man far less often than in past years. I know his on-ice SCD/15 year-over-year doesn't seem bear out this improvement at first glance, but considering that as a team, the Oilers have been much worse in the scoring-chance department this year, I'll take the relative stagnation as a sign of improvement.

Ender: I've been pretty happy with both of the goaltenders, which was the biggest question-mark for me coming in. From what I've seen they both easily have the skill to make it happen and while they both terrify me while handling the puck, I'm ok with my Penner-esque complaints against them. I said this about Penner last year and I'll say it about these guys this year - It's great that they can play at the level they do, but when they seem asleep in 1/3-1/2 of their games it pisses me off. If the results are there regardless, great, but my god I'd feel more confident watching the game if they got off of the Benadryl.

SumOil: There is one player who has has the biggest improvement from for the Oilers and that is Smid. However the player who has surprised me the most is Gilbert Brule. Last season when he was called up,he struggled in the big show. His performance in the A did not inspire much confidence in his play either. During the pre-season there was a lot of talk about him getting Brodziak's role as the 4th line center. Most of us felt that this was more to do with his draft pedigree than him earning his due. However, Brule has been one of those positive contributors this season. He hasn't been able to replace Brodziak as he isnt as defensively reliable, but has consistently provided the team with secondary scoring. Early on, being on a line with Penner did help his stats and when(finally) Penner was promoted to the top line, many of us feared that his scoring will slow down considerably. However, he is third among all forwards in scoring and 2nd in goals. Quoting Bruce McCurdy after Brule's performance against the Sharks:

"Brulé is no Hemsky obviously but I'm starting to think we might have an Actual NHL Player™ on our hands. He's showing some real intensity to go with a nose for the net and a quick release."

Not ready for prime time

Bruce McCurdy — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 05:15:01 -0000

View full size photo »

For quite some time I have had a pet peeve about the make-up of the Oiler roster. Too many young unproven guys, too many old expensive guys, and nowhere near enough prime-of-career guys. I wrote this and this on the subject last April, noting the gaping hole in the middle of the age spectrum. What has changed so far in 2009-10?

Let's look at the forwards. So far this season Oilers have already used 19 (!) of them. I have divided them into 5 groups, by hockey age (as of Feb 1, 2010, as defined by Hockey-reference.com):

Entry level (age 20-22): Cogliano, Gagner, O'Marra
Developing (age 23-25): Brulé, Jacques, McDonald, Nilsson, O'Sullivan, Potulny, Reddox, Stone, Stortini
Prime (age 26-28): Hemsky, Penner
Late prime (age 29-31): Comrie, Horcoff, MacIntyre
Veterans (age 32-34): Moreau, Pisani

If that seems like a lot of developing players, it is. Let's check out the distribution by number of players, number of GP given those players, and percentage of ice time.

Age	#fwds	%fwds	%GP	%TOI
20-22	3	15.8%	17.5%	17.3%
23-25	9	47.4%	43.8%	39.8%
26-28	2	10.5%	15.3%	19.5%
29-31	3	15.8%	13.4%	14.6%
32-34	2	10.5%	10.0%	8.8%

(The same categories are represented by the blue, red, and green lines respectively in the graph up top. ~~Sorry for its poor quality, although it's much better if you click to view it in full size~~. New and improved!)

Pat Quinn has ridden his prime time horses -- both of them -- pretty much as hard as he can. Still, for every minute one of them spends on the ice, younger players have received nearly 3 minutes. So what have all these developing players done with said ice time? Results after the jump ...

Age	G/GP	P/GP	+-/GP	G/60	P/60	+-/60
20-22	0.14	0.45	-0.08	0.58	1.82	-0.07
23-25	0.16	0.40	-0.23	0.73	1.77	-1.07
26-28	0.45	1.06	+0.36	1.41	3.34	+1.16
29-31	0.23	0.44	-0.20	0.86	1.64	-1.12
32-34	0.13	0.22	-0.07	0.57	1.00	-0.29

No surprise to see Penner and Hemsky with massively greater production on a per-game basis. Even parsed on a per-minute basis their goals and points output is roughly double all of their teammates. No adjustments have been made to account for powerplay time, which obviously will favour those players. That said, the starkest contrast of all can be seen in the plus/minus columns, where the prime timers have been awesome while all other groups have bled goals against. This is particularly noticeable in the age 23-25 bracket, where several still-not-ready-for-prime-time players have posted some underwhelming numbers at both ends of the rink: Robert Nilsson, 1 goal, -12; J.F. Jacques, 2 goals, -9; Patrick O'Sullivan, 4 goals, -11. Ouch, ouch, and more ouch.

I'm not for a moment suggesting that if the Oilers added a couple more players in their prime years they would produce on the level of Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. I do, however, think the team would benefit from having something resembling a "cluster" of players around those peak years. It was a problem identified last year, and one that was hardly solved with the addition of Mike Comrie.

Without getting into a statistical breakdown on the blueline, it is readily apparent that the Oilers have another big split in the experience levels of their players. Of the 8 players with 10+ GP, four of them are currently age 26 or younger (Gilbert turns 27 in January), and the other four age 33 or older. Only 29-year-old Dean Arsene (2 GP) fills the void in between those two groups. And in goal it's more of the same, where the choice is between old and breaking down or young and inexperienced.

On the roster as a whole, the Oilers have already used 31 players in 2009-10. Just 5 of those players -- Penner, Horcoff, Comrie, Arsene, and the departed Steve MacIntyre for goodness sake -- are currently between the ages of 27-32.

Early results suggest it is not a recipe for success.

Oilers Roundtable Discussion, 1/3 of the way through the season - Part I

Derek Zona — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Jimmy Jeong - AP

2 months ago: Edmonton Oilers' Ladislav Smid, left, from Czech Republic, and Jean-Francois Jacques (22) help teammate Sheldon Souray off the ice during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Calgary Flames in Edmonton, Alberta, on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jimmy Jeong)

Browse more photos »

Injuries and a new coaching staff - how has the initial portion of the season matched with expectations? The Copper & Blue's roundtable is back to answer those questions.

Find the entire series here, tagged 2009 midseason roundtable.

They all weigh in after the jump.

C&B: Can the Oilers, in all honesty, blame injuries?

Shepso: I really don’t know how to answer this question as the team hasn’t played with a full roster since approximately game three, at which point (I believe) the team was 1-1-1 including two brutally humiliating defeats at the hands of the flames. The 6-2-1 start to the season really seemed to lull the team into a false sense of security. In other words, they had bought into the false consciousness initiated by their supposed success, even though management was still providing them with a less than ideal situation in which to work with, thus alienating them from themselves and their labour and leading to the inevitable crash in productivity based on unsustainable expectations and an internalized over-inflation of their material value. (Papa Karl, I do love you… now when is the revolution going to start?)

Basically, what I am getting at here, is that the team bought into the myth that they were good enough, despite being outplayed and outshot, despite the swine, the pubis thing, the gradual losses of Steady Stevie, big sexy, Lubo, Ladi, Chorney, Hemsky, Horcoff, Nilsson, Brule and now even Duff Man has mono… Ok, well, maybe the injuries are a little bit to blame, but the fact that DP is suddenly our best man on the draw (9/11 last night) and is really carrying the team on his (not so fat) back, well, the system was flawed from the start-kinda like capitalism. I want to, and several times have implored others to tow the company line and wait and see what happens when everyone is healthy, but the thing of it is, most of the team is back now and they still don’t look so great. Sure, a 4-0 win Monday night is still a 4-0 win, but so is a football in the groin sometimes. This team coasts at the best of times, doesn’t seem to work very hard and gets outplayed in nearly every game I have watched this season. The only really consistent players have been Penner night in and night out (that A he wears sometimes should become permanent), Souray when he’s been healthy, and Ladi freakin Smid. The team still has holes to be filled, and the injury imp, bastard that he is, is not completely to blame.

Chappy: Being well out in front of the league in man-games lost to injury, you have to at least partially take injuries in account. It seems like every other game another guy is hitting the deck. I'm sure Dean Arsene is a stand up guy, but I can safely say that no one expected to see him on the big club this year.

HBomb: They can argue it's had an impact, but there's obvious deficiencies on this roster even when everyone's healthy (3C, 2LW being the two most obvious spots). If they say at the end of the season that the Injury Bug is the reason they didn't make the playoffs, I hope someone in the Edmonton media has the guts to call BS.

Dawgbone: I think blame is a bit of a poor choice of words here, because while this team really wasn't good enough in the first place, it's been compounded by the injuries. It's one thing to have a team with a couple of holes here and there. You can sort of work through it, hopefully catch some breaks (like they did early), and see if something comes up later in the season where you can address a couple of needs. As it stands now, there isn't anything that gives you much hope that they will be in that position. The biggest issues with the injuries is that it happened to areas the Oilers were strong in (for the most part). The Oilers top six (Souray, Lubo, Gilbert, Grebs, Staios, Smid) have combined to miss 36 games. Jason Strudwick is second amongst Oiler defencemen in games played. You can live with guys like Stone, JFJ, Comrie, etc... missing time because there are several guys in the lineup that can fill those roles. Once you start losing 2 and 3 of your blueliners at one time it makes things far more difficult. Not only do you already have the initial holes in your lineup, you've now got new leaks springing up on the other side of the ship.

Doogie2k: I can interpret this question two different ways. One is, "can we blame injuries for how bad the team's been this year?" My response to that is, "Well, of course." Souray missed a good 15 games, Horcoff and Hemsky and maybe even Visnovsky have been playing hurt at various times this year (and now Hemsky's gone for the year, which helps not at all), and Pisani and Pouliot have played barely and not at all, respectively. I also think Ryan Stone was actually playing well before he got hurt, and that the Oilers have missed him more than most might think: he's big, gritty, and not a fuck-up, which is a big deal on this roster. And all that's to say nothing of the escalating diseases running through the dressing room: first the regular flu, then swine flu, and then Comrie with mono? What's next? Tom Gilbert on the IR with chlamydia? While you can argue over the extent of the injury effect -- indeed, Scott and Ender did, just the other day -- it's inarguable that injuries to our best players have cost us games. You can't lose some of the few guys who can play in both ends of the rink for that amount of time and not have it affect your game.

The other is, "can we blame injuries for Tambellini not making a move to improve the team to this point?" That's a bit more complicated, because I think Tambellini believed that he needed a good look at the lineup before he could judge not just what the team needed, but what they could deal. The problem is, his coach has been saying since day one that they've only got one good two-way centre (who's been playing through a busted shoulder), and that it's a small team without enough grit and defensive awareness to compete, and I think that's informed our frustration with his lack of a deal, especially since it's exactly what we've been saying for a couple of years. The other problem that Tambellini faced, of course, was the cap and the fact that any move he made was going to need to involve similar or more money going back the other way, which most clubs aren't interested in at this stage of the season. It'll be interesting to see what he does over the next few weeks now that he has some space to play with, and whether his fellow GMs buy his public stance that he's playing wait-and-see, or if they'll be able to smell the desperation of a man with one of his best players on LTIR.

Ender: To some extent, yes. Realistically this team doesn't have a lot of players who will tilt the ice by themselves (if they have anyone). As such the key to this team's success *has* to be their team/line play. All the team-building weekends in the world won't help you if the lines aren't together for more than a week or if your roster changes by 20% on a week-to-week basis. As it is, the "healthy" players seem to be playing hurt and I honestly can't think of any team in the league who has the depth to deal with these sorts of injuries on this short of a timeframe.

SumOil: There are many teams who have been bit by the injury bug and have remained competitive, if not dominant. Three teams that come to mind are the New Jersey Devils, the Red Wings and the Bruins. The Devils at one point had 4 of their regular 6 D-men out to injuries. That did not slow them down. The injury bug for Bruins and Red Wings has been well documented. Even then, they have been competitive. They have definitely lost games, but have played with vigor and purpose often out-shooting and/or out-chancing their opponents. Its not the injuries that is hurting the Oilers as much as an obvious lack of depth and refusal of sticking to the game plan. There aren't players in the system who could offset the loss of either Hemsky, Penner or Horcoff. Also most of the players in the AHL are either on AHL contracts or just not good enough to be in the NHL.

Injuries are an excuse by the management and the players for the poor showing. Patrick O'Sullivan is generally playing in an uninspired lazy manner. Players are abandoning their defensive assignments. Many of the roster players aren't contributing in any positive manner. Is it the fault of injuries that Gilbert is unable to break the opposing forwards' puck-cycling? Of course injuries are somewhat responsible for our record. However they cant be blamed for our mistake prone insipid play. First show me hard-work, commitment to game plan and mistake free hockey and then blame the injuries if you lose.

C&B: Have Quinn and Renney mattered at all?

Shepso: In a word, kinda. They have employed better tactics offensively, but on the defensive side of things, not so much. The forwards seem to be lost in the defensive zone, often caught over-pursuing and not doing the little things with the puck to get it out to safety. On the offensive side of the game, the "skill" guys are still trying to be too cute with the puck. If I see one more blind-side behind-the- back spin pass, I might start breaking things. The biggest difference is in the change of attitude that a lot of the players seem to have, about not being afraid to screw up anymore. The biggest impact has been clearly on Dustin Penner, who is emerging as an elite power forward, and we are all so thankful that his boxcars have finally caught up to the underliers! One thing I must say about Quinn is that I really love his pressers. He is brutally honest and his old-coot folksy ways actually make him more fun to watch then MacT sometimes. His directness is refreshing and I think he knows exactly what is wrong with this team. I can see him making a push to get upstairs should Tambi falter at all. He knows how to win and will instil a new culture in the locker room; he just needs a bit more time to do it. Renney on the other hand has been less visible. His PP is doing better(ish) but I just don't want it to turn into the one-trick pony show of pass it to Souray. I also think that Gagner should be taking some of Horc's PP1 time, just to take the pressure off of Hemsky and add some creativity to the formation. Horc should be on PP2 with Cogs and POS. I think that tactically the team plays much better at Evs in the offensive zone and that they make the most of their chances when they get them, but defensively, based on the calibre of players available, I am surprised by the more recent poor play in the d-zone. Some of that must be attributed to coaching now that all the starters but Grebs are in the lineup.

Chappy: Yes, definitely. I think the ship Quinn and Renney are running is a tight operation. Quinn is a straight talking, no nonsense kind of guy evidenced by his press conferences. I think we all can agree that we love seeing what the staff has done with Penner so far this year.

HBomb: Absolutely. Dustin Penner has taken the next step, the powerplay has improved, and the team's effort level, for the most part, has been more consistent. However, as the saying goes, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken feathers, and your record tends to reflect what type of team you are. This is an 11th or 12th place hockey team folks, no use trying to deny it.

Dawgbone: Not enough. It really depends on how much credit you give them for Dustin Penner. He's clearly outplayed everyones expectations, and he's showing no real signs of slowing down. The PP has been excellent as well, despite missing some key components on the blueline for various stretches. That being said, the PK is still a complete disaster (sure they are higher in the standings but they are only marginally better in %), and this team has gotten completely smashed at ES (on pace to be a -32). Much like last year, this team is getting routinely out-shot and out-chanced, but I think things have actually gotten worse. A very hot start in terms of shooting % really masked the early deficiencies of this club, but the injuries have evened that out in a hurry.

Doogie2k: I figured it would take some time for their game plan to take hold, and injuries/personnel haven't helped, but I don't think the team is playing dramatically better than they were last season, at least so far. They've been more interesting to watch, and less likely to give up and go home, but the stupid mistakes and terrible coverage are still well in evidence. The bright side is that Quinney are certainly more willing to call a spade a spade when asked publicly, rather than scapegoating and covering for the favourites, and are trying to reign in the bad habits without creating the culture of fear that the late-era MacTavish teams seemed to have -- where one mistake led to a night full of tentative and passive play -- but clearly, it's going to take more time for them to have the intended impact. I do wonder if the team would even be doing this well if they were still coached by MacTavish, though: like I said, MacT's post-2006 teams had a tendency to fall apart when they got behind, and we've already seen these guys claw back three or four times to either make it interesting or win the game.

Ender: I think so. Sure, the lack of line-matching is hurting the team right now, but I have a feeling that it just puts more pressure on players to develop faster which could come in handy when (if?) the team gets healthy. All that said I have a really hard time judging these coaches given the injuries because they seem to think (which I agree with) that team-building is the most important aspect of their job, even moreso than winning. If they had a healthy roster, I'd be expecting a lot more out of this team.

SumOil: Of course the response to this question is that it is too early to say anything definitive. However there certainly are many positives compared to last season. Quinn's assertion of having a big body on each line is certainly different from MacT's policy of sticking the skill men together. It certainly has paid dividends. These 'coke machines' have led the skilled men do their thing. Early on Stone meshed well with Sully and Comrie. JFJ has done his fair share of work with his hitting. Its exciting. Also I see a better PP and PK structure this season. While our PP has been good(sans the last two games), our PK problem is more dues to lack of proper personnel rather than execution. While Penner and Smid have flourished under the new coaching regime, Gilbert has been bad. I am not experienced enough to say whether it is a confidence problem or misuse by the coaching staff. I certainly miss Charlie Huddy.

Edmonton - San Jose post-game: Movember can't end soon enough

Bruce McCurdy — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 09:09:44 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

23 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' Sheldon Souray, left, battles with San Jose Sharks' Dany Heatley, of Germany, during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Edmonton, Alberta, on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

Browse more photos »

Well, shit. What a crushing day. We lost Hemsky for the season, and we lost a game we should have won. Not just a game, but The "Dany Heatley Game". Played well enough to titillate, but in the end, handed the Sharks the freaking game on a silver platter in a particularly discouraging manner.

It was a good game and I have few (but specific) complaints. A good friend I don't see often enough got a pair of freebies and was kind enough to phone me, we hit the Thanh Thanh for some excellent Vietnamese cuisine en route, and by anthem-time found our seats on Row 31 overlooking the faceoff circle in the Sharks end, players' bench side. Funny thing, the last year I had season tickets I moved up to Row 31 from Row 14 to reduce the per game damage from $31 to $17. Now it's 17 years later and those $17 seats now bear a sticker price of $107! Which is why I rely on generous friends and occasional good luck to get to my handful of games a year ... ducats are simply out of range.

31 rows is a long way from the ice, but not too far to see some of the wide open spaces in several of the Movember 'staches on display even after a month of "growth". That little visual brought home the fact that this was a battle of boys against men

The anti-Heatley sentiment peaked early, with one leather lung letting rip a harsh "You suck Heatley!" while Paul Lorieau paused for a breath in the Star Spangled Banner, which certainly brought home the fact that this was another Canadian** hockey star who had bolted stateside, turning his nose up at two Canadian teams in the process. So the loudmouth's timing was appropriate or classless or both depending on one's viewpoint.

(** Canadian unless you believe the photo caption, which I have left in its raw, AP form. For whatever reason they always identify non-North American players by what country they're from.)

After that the booing was more perfuctory than anything, more noise than anything heartfelt. The cheers rang when Sheldon Souray knocked Heatley on his overpaid butt 5 minutes in, but quickly died out when Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau instantly took advantage of the large hole Souray had left behind in the process to put the Sharks up 1-0. The lead held past the midway mark of the game and I began to wonder if the Oilers would ever score again. Out of the blue though, Ryan Potulny made a nice steal from Dan Boyle, outraced a half-hearted Thornton backcheck and went in alone to deke Evgeni Nabokov. The Oilers carried the 1-1 score to the intermission, another tight defensive struggle not dissimilar from Wednesday's affair vs. the Kings. Unexpectedly, the third period was the bipolar opposite...

What a period it was. Dustin Penner scored early on a Gilbert Brulé rebound, then Penner returned the favour with a goal mouth feed that Brulé swatted home. Two-goal lead in the third, our first chance to be home and cooled out. Instead it lasted exactly two shifts of the Marleau-Thornton-Heatley line, both of which ended with the puck in the back of Jeff Deslauriers' net. 3-3. Back and forth the game went for several pulsating minutes, with my pick to score the game winner, Ladi Smid, actually having a great chance only to be beaten by Nabokov's glove. Undeterred, Smid later served as the middleman between Ethan Moreau's determined rush and Potulny's finishing shot which put the Oil up once again, 4-3 with 5 minutes to go. Turnaround for what happened in the Kings' game Thursday. We just had to see it out.

The best/worst thing about it was that for the next 3½ minutes the Oilers played perfect hockey. They forechecked like demons, hemming the Sharks in their own end, consistently winning races to and battles for loose pucks, cycling, making crisp changes while still maintaining puck pursuit. It was a joy to watch. Until, of all things, Oilers forced a Shark mistake, a penalty with 1:40 to go.

Well that should have been it. Instead, the Oil fell completely asleep. The powerplay which had done nothing all night, did much less than nothing when it mattered most, allowing three great San Jose scoring chances and the tying goal on a completely broken play. Hard to believe that you can win a draw in your own end 5-against-4 and within 4 seconds have the play end with the opposing centre completing his hat trick from the edge of the crease without anybody around him including the goalie. Gagner broke or dropped his stick winning the draw and let Marleau go, Staios and Souray got crossed up, Thornton won a race to the loose puck and JDD went fishing for the pokecheck only to look silly when Thornton fished the puck to Marleau for the tap in. A complete fustercluck, with the game completely on the line. Stupid, stupid, stupid hockey.

Oilers conspired to give up another odd man rush on the same powerplay, very nearly losing the game in regulation. There was no further scoring in overtime either, despite a very entertaining 101 seconds of the ultra-rare 3v3. From there it was a shootout, and the only surprise was that it wasn't Dany Bloody Heatley who dropped the guillotine on another loss, perhaps the most disappointing, frustrating, and discouraging one to date.

The thing of it is, if you hang around long enough, there's not much new under the sun and no matter what happens, chances are you've seen something like it before. I remember three years ago almost to the day, attending The Chris Pronger Game in which the Oil blew a two-goal lead, the Ducks tied it with the goalie out and won it in overtime, prompting very similar emotions. I also recall the Oil blowing a game in the Boston Garden round about 1986 or so when they had the lead and the powerplay in the last two minutes, conspired to retreat all the way to their own end with the puck, and then Paul Coffey tried a long slow diagonal pass right through the middle of his own zone which the Bruins picked off and promptly put in the net. Then they won it in overtime. That time I was so mad I could spit ... tonight it was shocking in one sense but in another it was just another disaster in a disastrous season. Bad news always carries the day, so what's new?

***

Jacques - Horcoff - O'Sullivan
This threesome along with Staios and Souray was hard-matched against San Jose's big unit (Marleau-Thornton-Heatley-Murray-Boyle). They weren't up to the task judging by the -3 each of the three posted. Funny, cuz they did lots of things right. JFJ led the Oilers in hits (6) and POS in shots (also 6). Horcoff worked his tail off and made lots of excellent small plays, such as the second period sequence where he fended off heavy Sharks forechecking by two guys and finally worked his way out of the zone, only to have Souray inexplicably miss his soft breakout pass with the Sharks instantly turning it into a 2-on-1 the other way. Lots to like in JFJ's game, but defensive presence is not one of those things

Penner - Gagner - Brulé
Solid night's work from the trio, consisting of two former hot shot draft picks and the big man who took a very circuitous route to the bigs. They connected for two third period goals and showing some chemistry especially between Penner and Brulé who had it going earlier in the year. Brulé is no Hemsky obviously but I'm starting to think we might have an Actual NHL Player™ on our hands. He's showing some real intensity to go with a nose for the net and a quick release. As he has done most of the season, Penner gave the Sharks defenders fits with his bull-in-a-china-shop routine

Moreau - Potulny - Cogliano
Lots to like here. The trio generated 10 shots among them in a strong effort from all three men. Potulny too is doing a convincing impersonation of an Actual NHL Player™ and is getting stronger as his ice time and confidence grows. He notched a pair of goals with some real strong finish, threw his body around with some abandon, and contributed solid time to both special teams. Cogliano appears tp be finally emerging from the coccon that had enveloped his early-season play, skating hard and really getting his competitive juices flowing. The goals aren't coming yet, but he's been an effective player of late. Moreau too put in an excellent efffort, contributing a number of strong rushed including the one that led directly to what should have been the winning goal. He remains way too inclined to shoot from absolutely anywhere that he actually gets control of the disc, and the element of surprise is long gone.

McDonald - O'Marra - Stortini
A creditable performance from the young trio, who held their own in brief appearances (~5 minutes TOI). Stortini (4 hits) did a solid job chaperoning his inexperienced mates (combined 1 NHL GP before this one). O'Marra with a couple of nice hits, although for some reason he skirted a guy he seemingly had in the trolley tracks in the third. Guys like him need to hit at every opportunity to be successful. The raw rook McDonald had a couple of giveaways mixed in as he had a little trouble with NHL speed. I loved one sequence where all three of them consecutively hammered various Sharks who were trying to break out.

Souray - Staios
An awful night for the two vets, who were not so much hardmatched as overmatched against the "Olympic Line". Both ended the night with a sorry -4, burnt for three even strength goals with 22-10-19 and then the less forgivable SH goal that tied things at the end in which the two experienced defenders completely got undressed in front of their own goal. Souray had 3 giveaways and 2 bad penalties mixed in on a night where he seemed completely out of sorts, out of synch with himself and almost out of phase with the game. Everything he did was a split second ahead or behind the play. Staios got some time on the PP which spent more time allowing odd-man rushes against than creating anything in the good end.

Smid - Visnovsky
Solid night's work saw both post a +2. Smid delivered a tenacious effort which included contributions in the O-zone, as he forced a fine save from Nabokov minutes before he set up Potulny for the 4-3 goal. Visnovsky looked small and overmatched on a couple of occasions, and like a master in complete control much of the rest of the time.

Strudwick - Gilbert
Another pair with a sparkling +2 rating against lesser comp. One of Strudwick's stronger games in a while. Gilbert had a couple of horrendous giveways which led directly to glorious chances for the Sharks, but otherwise was looking more like his old self than I've seen for a while, using his smarts to win possession and his legs to rush the puck with authority.

Deslauriers
A number of decent stops to bail out various Oiler breakdowns, but I was less than impressed with his overall body of work. Seems to have a hell of a time tracking the puck, and allows rebounds in unexpected directions. He had his usual puckhandling misadventures (3 GV for at least the third time recently), freezing the puck much more often than necessary, especially given Oilers' issues on the dot. (See: tying goal against.) His attempted pokecheck on that faceoff situation was the exact wrong play, and led to Marleau having a wide open net to dunk the puck. Does not inspire confidence in this observer.

Situational Faceoff Percentage

Scott Reynolds — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 19:00:30 -0000

Faceoffs are reasonably important. Especially faceoffs in the offensive or defensive zone where puck possession leads more directly to success. Gabe Desjardins has demonstrated the impact of the outcome of a faceoff at even strength. No doubt there would be similar results if one looked at the outcome of faceoffs on special teams. I bring this up because the Edmonton Oilers are not very good in the faceoff circle and have recently taken to using options like Patrick O'Sullivan and Dustin Penner in order to compensate for an injured Shawn Horcoff, ineffective Andrew Cogliano and "signed-to-play-wing" Mike Comrie. I wanted to look at what their track record might tell us about what we should expect from them going forward. In order to do that, however, I wanted to first look at the difference between faceoff success on the power play, on the penalty kill and at even strength.

More after the jump...

First, I need to acknowledge that Tyler Dellow has already given us some data that shows teams and players have a much better faceoff percentage on the power play than they do when short-handed. It seems obvious, but isn't always something we think of when we talk about a particular player's faceoff percentage. I decided to put together a couple of charts illustrating this point. The first is a chart of players that took more than 200 faceoffs while short-handed last in both 2008-09 and 2007-08:

The final "totals" column is just adding all of the faceoff performances together so those that took more faceoffs contribute more to the average. That means that the players who took the most faceoffs over the last two years on the penalty kill ended up losing a significant portion of their success. Although for some players there are some pretty big jumps from year to year, in absolute terms, the guys who did the best at even strength also tend to do the best short-handed.

The next chart is for players who took at least 200 faceoffs while on the power play in both 2007-08 and 2008-09:

I think there are some pretty interesting things here. The guys taking the most faceoffs on the penalty kill are generally what we might call "specialists." Teams really don't want to lose draws when they're penalty killing and make it a priority. On the power play, faceoff ability takes a backseat to offensive ability in general. The only player you might regard as a specialist who makes the list is Rod Brind'Amour who, in his best year, won two thirds of his faceoffs on the power play. This will generally serve to drag down the numbers of the specialists and pump up the numbers for the stars. Again, there isn't a lot of consistency at the player level from year to year but the totals stay very similar.

So, back to the Oilers, when deciding which guys should be taking draws I think it's probably wise to just look at even strength numbers. For instance, Dustin Penner's faceoff percentage in 2007-08 was 55.0% in 189 faceoffs but in the 93 faceoffs he took at even strength he only won 40.8%. Here are the career numbers at even strength for all of the Oilers who have taken 50 or more faceoffs this season, adding in Marc Pouliot and subtracting Shawn Horcoff:

It's not the prettiest of charts. There are only two guys on the team who have cleared 43% for their career and, at least so far, Dustin Penner and Patrick O'Sullivan aren't good options on the dot. Sam Gagner has improved a lot so far this year (100 wins and 103 losses) and could be a decent option going forward but with Horcoff not taking draws the Oilers could really use some help in this area. For most clubs faceoffs aren't a big deal because the pack is bunched so close together but the Oilers are bad enough territorially and bad enough at faceoffs that it could well be hurting them. It would obviously be preferable to improve the territorial play but it's probably significantly easier to improve the faceoff situation.

And poor Marc Pouliot. Gilbert Brule hasn't been used at all on the PK so when Pouliot gets back he's likely going to immediately step into some pretty tough minutes (defensive zone draws and lots of PK). It's a virtual guarantee his counting numbers are going to be awful as he heads for restricted free agency. Good luck getting paid kid!

Edmonton - Phoenix post-game: By the numbers

Bruce McCurdy — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 07:32:41 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

27 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' goalie Jeff Deslauriers makes a glove save against the Phoenix Coyotes during third period NHL hockey action in Edmonton on Monday, Nov. 23, 2009. The Oilers won 4-0. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

Browse more photos »

This is an experiment. Had a meeting that took me right out of the loop for the game, so I offered to do the post-game thread "blind", not watching or listening to the game or reading the GDT but simply referring to a few (I chose three) statistical reports. How much do they tell us about what really happens out there? Let me give some educated guesses strictly by the numbers. Those of you who did see the game, I invite your comments to set me straight.

First things first: Shawn Horcoff scored a goal at 19:59 of the second period? After what happened on Saturday, that is almost surreal. The hockey gods usually take a little more time than that to even up the scales of justice. Was it another clock-stopper?

The Game Summary shows the other 3 goals occurred in the game's first 12 minutes -- including 2 goals in 7 seconds! If I'm not mistaken that's a team record. (The Oil allowed 2 goals in 4 seconds once, both by Winnipeg's Deron Quint, but I don't remember them ever scoring 2 in the good end quite so rapidly.) Moreau, Souray, Hemsky, Horcoff -- four of the seven guys called into that leadership meeting early yesterday morning -- accounted for all the goal scoring and presumably a little leadership in the bargain. It would appear that Jeff Deslauriers did the rest.

Obviously the 3-0 lead would have affected how the game was played from then on, with the Oil content to sit back and Phoenix needing to drive the play, but timeonice.com's Shots Directed At Net data indicate an entirely one-sided game in the Coyotes' favour. Either goalie's Corsi stats tell us Phoenix attempted even-strength 70 shots towards Edmonton's net, the Oil just 28 the other way. In 47 minutes of even strength play that's 34-17 in shots on goal, and another 36-11 in shots that missed or were blocked. That latter distribution suggests Phoenix were pretty indiscriminate and just firing from everywhere, while 20 blocked shots indicates the Oilers had some commitment to defensive play although I suspect there were some pretty chaotic moments.

Individually the Corsi numbers ranged from a team best of -5 (!!!) for Hemsky and Penner -- no surprises there -- to -22 apiece for Staios and Souray. The veteran duo each each logged 23+ minutes and I'm guessing a chunk of that was against what on Phoenix passes for the toughs. Souray hard-matched against Doan? Whatever, the Event Summary indicates Souray wasn't exactly a passive bystander out there: 1-1-2, +1, 4 shots, 9 attempted shots, a hit, 4 giveaways, a takeaway, 3 blocks, a boatload of ice time on both special teams ... don't like those giveaways or that Corsi but on balance it would appear Sheldon played a pretty strong game.

I'm also liking Ales Hemsky's stats for the night -- a goal, +1, a couple of shots, a hit, a blocked shot, 2 of the Oilers' 7 takeaways and none of their 20 (!) giveaways. I'm guessing Ales was "on". Another individual stat that jumps out is Dustin Penner's 9/11, 82% on the dot. He was having a dreadful time there a week or so ago. On this night the Oilers actually won the faceoff battle 30-24, a pleasant change of pace.

First star surely was Jeff Deslauriers, putting up the clean sheet despite all those shots and all that apparent zone pressure. That's adds up to a tough night's work (though it looks as if the PK unit did a fair job, holding PHX to 2 shots). A great bounceback game for the kid, who in his first 5 games had allowed 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 goals respectively. Obviously that trend had to change. But our own Ben Massey had it all figured out in the last PGT when he concluded:

Jeff, if you're reading this, you suck and I hate you and your face is ugly. Now go pitch a shutout.

Well done, Ben!

Statistical candidate for the 20th star is Patrick O'Sullivan, who posted a Corsi of +3/-24 = -21 in just 10:30 of EV TOI. That's -2 shot attempts per minute, for goodness sake. Liam Reddox, presumably a linemate, was scarcely better at +3/-21 = -18 in a shade under 10 minutes. Were these guys "keeping them to the outside" or simply getting Pwned?

So that's how I (didn't) see it. Please, help set me straight -- what did I miss?