SB Nation - Jason Strudwick

Oilers Roundtable Discussion, 1/3 of the way through the season - Part I

Derek Zona — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 18:00:14 -0000

2 months ago: Edmonton Oilers' Ladislav Smid, left, from Czech Republic, and Jean-Francois Jacques (22) help teammate Sheldon Souray off the ice during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Calgary Flames in Edmonton, Alberta, on Thursday, Oct. 8, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jimmy Jeong)

Browse more photos »

Injuries and a new coaching staff - how has the initial portion of the season matched with expectations? The Copper & Blue's roundtable is back to answer those questions.

Our lineup includes: the prolix Shepso, combining modern western philosophy and hockey at Bringing Back The Glory; Chappy, owner of This is Not a Love Song; HBomb, everyone's favorite bartender in the Oilers' 'sphere; Dawgbone, the pragmatic commentor that writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; Doogie2k, the go-to guy on physiology working at Still No Name; everyone's favorite antagonist Ender, Doogie's partner in crime at Still No Name; and SumOil, a frequent commenter here and the biggest optimist that any of us know.

Find the entire series here, tagged 2009 midseason roundtable.

They all weigh in after the jump.

C&B: Can the Oilers, in all honesty, blame injuries?

Shepso: I really don’t know how to answer this question as the team hasn’t played with a full roster since approximately game three, at which point (I believe) the team was 1-1-1 including two brutally humiliating defeats at the hands of the flames. The 6-2-1 start to the season really seemed to lull the team into a false sense of security. In other words, they had bought into the false consciousness initiated by their supposed success, even though management was still providing them with a less than ideal situation in which to work with, thus alienating them from themselves and their labour and leading to the inevitable crash in productivity based on unsustainable expectations and an internalized over-inflation of their material value. (Papa Karl, I do love you… now when is the revolution going to start?)

Basically, what I am getting at here, is that the team bought into the myth that they were good enough, despite being outplayed and outshot, despite the swine, the pubis thing, the gradual losses of Steady Stevie, big sexy, Lubo, Ladi, Chorney, Hemsky, Horcoff, Nilsson, Brule and now even Duff Man has mono… Ok, well, maybe the injuries are a little bit to blame, but the fact that DP is suddenly our best man on the draw (9/11 last night) and is really carrying the team on his (not so fat) back, well, the system was flawed from the start-kinda like capitalism. I want to, and several times have implored others to tow the company line and wait and see what happens when everyone is healthy, but the thing of it is, most of the team is back now and they still don’t look so great. Sure, a 4-0 win Monday night is still a 4-0 win, but so is a football in the groin sometimes. This team coasts at the best of times, doesn’t seem to work very hard and gets outplayed in nearly every game I have watched this season. The only really consistent players have been Penner night in and night out (that A he wears sometimes should become permanent), Souray when he’s been healthy, and Ladi freakin Smid. The team still has holes to be filled, and the injury imp, bastard that he is, is not completely to blame.

Chappy: Being well out in front of the league in man-games lost to injury, you have to at least partially take injuries in account. It seems like every other game another guy is hitting the deck. I'm sure Dean Arsene is a stand up guy, but I can safely say that no one expected to see him on the big club this year.

HBomb: They can argue it's had an impact, but there's obvious deficiencies on this roster even when everyone's healthy (3C, 2LW being the two most obvious spots). If they say at the end of the season that the Injury Bug is the reason they didn't make the playoffs, I hope someone in the Edmonton media has the guts to call BS.

Dawgbone: I think blame is a bit of a poor choice of words here, because while this team really wasn't good enough in the first place, it's been compounded by the injuries. It's one thing to have a team with a couple of holes here and there. You can sort of work through it, hopefully catch some breaks (like they did early), and see if something comes up later in the season where you can address a couple of needs. As it stands now, there isn't anything that gives you much hope that they will be in that position. The biggest issues with the injuries is that it happened to areas the Oilers were strong in (for the most part). The Oilers top six (Souray, Lubo, Gilbert, Grebs, Staios, Smid) have combined to miss 36 games. Jason Strudwick is second amongst Oiler defencemen in games played. You can live with guys like Stone, JFJ, Comrie, etc... missing time because there are several guys in the lineup that can fill those roles. Once you start losing 2 and 3 of your blueliners at one time it makes things far more difficult. Not only do you already have the initial holes in your lineup, you've now got new leaks springing up on the other side of the ship.

Doogie2k: I can interpret this question two different ways. One is, "can we blame injuries for how bad the team's been this year?" My response to that is, "Well, of course." Souray missed a good 15 games, Horcoff and Hemsky and maybe even Visnovsky have been playing hurt at various times this year (and now Hemsky's gone for the year, which helps not at all), and Pisani and Pouliot have played barely and not at all, respectively. I also think Ryan Stone was actually playing well before he got hurt, and that the Oilers have missed him more than most might think: he's big, gritty, and not a fuck-up, which is a big deal on this roster. And all that's to say nothing of the escalating diseases running through the dressing room: first the regular flu, then swine flu, and then Comrie with mono? What's next? Tom Gilbert on the IR with chlamydia? While you can argue over the extent of the injury effect -- indeed, Scott and Ender did, just the other day -- it's inarguable that injuries to our best players have cost us games. You can't lose some of the few guys who can play in both ends of the rink for that amount of time and not have it affect your game.

The other is, "can we blame injuries for Tambellini not making a move to improve the team to this point?" That's a bit more complicated, because I think Tambellini believed that he needed a good look at the lineup before he could judge not just what the team needed, but what they could deal. The problem is, his coach has been saying since day one that they've only got one good two-way centre (who's been playing through a busted shoulder), and that it's a small team without enough grit and defensive awareness to compete, and I think that's informed our frustration with his lack of a deal, especially since it's exactly what we've been saying for a couple of years. The other problem that Tambellini faced, of course, was the cap and the fact that any move he made was going to need to involve similar or more money going back the other way, which most clubs aren't interested in at this stage of the season. It'll be interesting to see what he does over the next few weeks now that he has some space to play with, and whether his fellow GMs buy his public stance that he's playing wait-and-see, or if they'll be able to smell the desperation of a man with one of his best players on LTIR.

Ender: To some extent, yes. Realistically this team doesn't have a lot of players who will tilt the ice by themselves (if they have anyone). As such the key to this team's success *has* to be their team/line play. All the team-building weekends in the world won't help you if the lines aren't together for more than a week or if your roster changes by 20% on a week-to-week basis. As it is, the "healthy" players seem to be playing hurt and I honestly can't think of any team in the league who has the depth to deal with these sorts of injuries on this short of a timeframe.

SumOil: There are many teams who have been bit by the injury bug and have remained competitive, if not dominant. Three teams that come to mind are the New Jersey Devils, the Red Wings and the Bruins. The Devils at one point had 4 of their regular 6 D-men out to injuries. That did not slow them down. The injury bug for Bruins and Red Wings has been well documented. Even then, they have been competitive. They have definitely lost games, but have played with vigor and purpose often out-shooting and/or out-chancing their opponents. Its not the injuries that is hurting the Oilers as much as an obvious lack of depth and refusal of sticking to the game plan. There aren't players in the system who could offset the loss of either Hemsky, Penner or Horcoff. Also most of the players in the AHL are either on AHL contracts or just not good enough to be in the NHL.

Injuries are an excuse by the management and the players for the poor showing. Patrick O'Sullivan is generally playing in an uninspired lazy manner. Players are abandoning their defensive assignments. Many of the roster players aren't contributing in any positive manner. Is it the fault of injuries that Gilbert is unable to break the opposing forwards' puck-cycling? Of course injuries are somewhat responsible for our record. However they cant be blamed for our mistake prone insipid play. First show me hard-work, commitment to game plan and mistake free hockey and then blame the injuries if you lose.

C&B: Have Quinn and Renney mattered at all?

Shepso: In a word, kinda. They have employed better tactics offensively, but on the defensive side of things, not so much. The forwards seem to be lost in the defensive zone, often caught over-pursuing and not doing the little things with the puck to get it out to safety. On the offensive side of the game, the "skill" guys are still trying to be too cute with the puck. If I see one more blind-side behind-the- back spin pass, I might start breaking things. The biggest difference is in the change of attitude that a lot of the players seem to have, about not being afraid to screw up anymore. The biggest impact has been clearly on Dustin Penner, who is emerging as an elite power forward, and we are all so thankful that his boxcars have finally caught up to the underliers! One thing I must say about Quinn is that I really love his pressers. He is brutally honest and his old-coot folksy ways actually make him more fun to watch then MacT sometimes. His directness is refreshing and I think he knows exactly what is wrong with this team. I can see him making a push to get upstairs should Tambi falter at all. He knows how to win and will instil a new culture in the locker room; he just needs a bit more time to do it. Renney on the other hand has been less visible. His PP is doing better(ish) but I just don't want it to turn into the one-trick pony show of pass it to Souray. I also think that Gagner should be taking some of Horc's PP1 time, just to take the pressure off of Hemsky and add some creativity to the formation. Horc should be on PP2 with Cogs and POS. I think that tactically the team plays much better at Evs in the offensive zone and that they make the most of their chances when they get them, but defensively, based on the calibre of players available, I am surprised by the more recent poor play in the d-zone. Some of that must be attributed to coaching now that all the starters but Grebs are in the lineup.

Chappy: Yes, definitely. I think the ship Quinn and Renney are running is a tight operation. Quinn is a straight talking, no nonsense kind of guy evidenced by his press conferences. I think we all can agree that we love seeing what the staff has done with Penner so far this year.

HBomb: Absolutely. Dustin Penner has taken the next step, the powerplay has improved, and the team's effort level, for the most part, has been more consistent. However, as the saying goes, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken feathers, and your record tends to reflect what type of team you are. This is an 11th or 12th place hockey team folks, no use trying to deny it.

Dawgbone: Not enough. It really depends on how much credit you give them for Dustin Penner. He's clearly outplayed everyones expectations, and he's showing no real signs of slowing down. The PP has been excellent as well, despite missing some key components on the blueline for various stretches. That being said, the PK is still a complete disaster (sure they are higher in the standings but they are only marginally better in %), and this team has gotten completely smashed at ES (on pace to be a -32). Much like last year, this team is getting routinely out-shot and out-chanced, but I think things have actually gotten worse. A very hot start in terms of shooting % really masked the early deficiencies of this club, but the injuries have evened that out in a hurry.

Doogie2k: I figured it would take some time for their game plan to take hold, and injuries/personnel haven't helped, but I don't think the team is playing dramatically better than they were last season, at least so far. They've been more interesting to watch, and less likely to give up and go home, but the stupid mistakes and terrible coverage are still well in evidence. The bright side is that Quinney are certainly more willing to call a spade a spade when asked publicly, rather than scapegoating and covering for the favourites, and are trying to reign in the bad habits without creating the culture of fear that the late-era MacTavish teams seemed to have -- where one mistake led to a night full of tentative and passive play -- but clearly, it's going to take more time for them to have the intended impact. I do wonder if the team would even be doing this well if they were still coached by MacTavish, though: like I said, MacT's post-2006 teams had a tendency to fall apart when they got behind, and we've already seen these guys claw back three or four times to either make it interesting or win the game.

Ender: I think so. Sure, the lack of line-matching is hurting the team right now, but I have a feeling that it just puts more pressure on players to develop faster which could come in handy when (if?) the team gets healthy. All that said I have a really hard time judging these coaches given the injuries because they seem to think (which I agree with) that team-building is the most important aspect of their job, even moreso than winning. If they had a healthy roster, I'd be expecting a lot more out of this team.

SumOil: Of course the response to this question is that it is too early to say anything definitive. However there certainly are many positives compared to last season. Quinn's assertion of having a big body on each line is certainly different from MacT's policy of sticking the skill men together. It certainly has paid dividends. These 'coke machines' have led the skilled men do their thing. Early on Stone meshed well with Sully and Comrie. JFJ has done his fair share of work with his hitting. Its exciting. Also I see a better PP and PK structure this season. While our PP has been good(sans the last two games), our PK problem is more dues to lack of proper personnel rather than execution. While Penner and Smid have flourished under the new coaching regime, Gilbert has been bad. I am not experienced enough to say whether it is a confidence problem or misuse by the coaching staff. I certainly miss Charlie Huddy.

Edmonton Scoring Chances, Year to Year

Derek Zona — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:30:11 -0000

More photos » by Adrian Wyld - AP

Browse more photos »

The best thing about the work that Dennis King (and now others) is doing on scoring chances is that we're beginning to get some data to work with. His work with the Oilers numbers last year was excellent, but limited. Now that we've got a second season to work with, we can start to do some analysis on these datasets.

Knowing that the rest of the Northwest is being tracked this year is exciting because we'll be able to do some intra-divisional comparisons. I've decided to take a look at the Oilers at the quarter pole this year and compare those numbers to the total chances from last year. Things look bleak, especially for the veterans on this club. Shawn Horcoff, Fernando Pisani, Steve Staios, Jason Strudwick, and especially Ethan Moreau look incomparably bad by this metric. Even though there has been hand-wringing over the amount of kids on the team (including some by me), there are some kids that are doing much better than I thought.

The above chart compares those scoring chances by player. I've compared Gilbert Brule to Kyle Brodziak because he's been given pretty much the same job that the departed Brodziak had at even strength last year. I've also compared Ales Kotalik to Mike Comrie as they've had similar jobs at even strength.

There is some interesting stuff going on here. The chart shows 24 comparable players and 17 of them have a lower chances for per 15 value. 19 of them have a higher chances against value. We can safely say that this team is worse at evens this year. No doubt the injuries and flu have something to do with this, but it should be noted that the team is bleeding at evens this year.

Brule is not handling the role as well as Brodziak did. In fact, he's giving up a half of a chance more per 15 than Brodziak did - if he gets similar time on ice, that amounts to three extra goals against this year. Prior to his injury, Ryan Stone was doing just fine - it will be interesting to see how Quinn handles him when he's healthy again.

Horcoff's play has been brutal by these numbers - he's off a full chance per 15 minutes. That's an extra eight goals against at even strength this year. Moreau is off by the same amount, but he is now surrendering 2.594 chances per 15 more than he's creating, easily the worst among regulars on the team and given his performance last year, is a signal that he may be done.

By far, the biggest falloff this year has been by Andrew Cogliano, as he has seen his differential slip by over 1.5 chances / 15 this year, to -1.726.

For all of the accolades that Ladislav Smid has received, those accolades don't mean much in this case. His chances differential is the same as it was last year. I have a hunch that if his chances were broken out between his time spent paired with Lubomir Visnovsky and time without, you'd see a rate that was one of the best on the team with Visnovsky and one of the worst without Visnovsky.

Comrie has been a better player at even strength thus far. Dustin Penner's CF and CA are both up this year, as are Ales Hemsky's total chances. Souray, though limited this year, has strikingly similar numbers. Ryan Potulny had success in his extremely limited time last year, and he's having success again this year in extremely limited time.

Lastly, I don't believe that Theo Peckham is, or was, healthy, at least during his callup this year. The foot must still be bothering him as he was just abysmal by this metric.

Author's note: Vic has determined that the goal / scoring chance rate is 1/7 in his findings thus far. All GF/GA math in this post is based on that.

Game 22 Recap: Oilers 6 - Avalanche 4

David Driscoll-Carignan — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:38:56 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

22 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' Ryan Potulny, left, and teammate Liam Reddox celebrate his goal against Colorado Avalanche goalie Peter Budaj, of Slovakia, during the third period NHL of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2009, in Edmonton, Alberta. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

Browse more photos »

Final - 11.18.2009	1	2	3	Total
Colorado Avalanche	2	2	0	4
Edmonton Oilers	1	2	3	6

Complete Coverage >

I'm a little bit country
And I'm a little bit rock 'n roll
I'm a little bit of Memphis and Nashville
With a little bit of Motown in my soul
I don't know if it's good or bad
But I know I love it so
I'm a little bit country
And I'm a little bit rock 'n roll

- The Osmonds

Divisive.

There is no Avalanche player on the roster today who is more divisive than Peter Budaj. Some guys come close (Brett Clark, for example), but Budaj takes the cake. When he plays, our normally kumbaya community goes to their respective corners. Some have faith in Budaj, no matter what happens on the ice. Others blame Budaj for every goal, no matter what happens on the ice.

In reality, Peter Budaj wasn't very sharp tonight. Then again, you can say that about pretty much everyone wearing an Avalanche unipron not named Duchene, Jones, Cumiskey or Hejduk. But Budaj is the goalie, and he's got to be better than that. He's certainly got to be better than the other goalie, especially when it's a backup WHO'S GOT A HYPHEN IN HIS NAME. Budaj wasn't.

So, Budaj detractors can do their little Tyler Weiman dance tonight and I, a devoted Budaj backer, won't complain. But I think you should know one thing: Budaj isn't the only reason we lost.

A funny thing happened tonight. Well, not "ha ha" funny, but I think you'll get the idea. Even though the Avs weren't playing at their best (perhaps due more to fatigue than anything else), they have a 2-gpal lead at the midway point of the game, thanks mostly to the 4 guys named two paragraphs up. When Kyle Cumiskey embarrassed Deslauriers to make it 4-2, the Oilers were pissed. And they started to unravel. They started cheap-shotting our players. Some, like the brutal Gilbert Brule board on Paul Stastny or about 3 cheap shots from Jason Strudwick, didn't get called. Others, like the Sheldon Souray cross-check across Wojtek Wolski's face, did. Edmonton was coming undone.

The Avalanche had two courses of action available to them. They could stoop to Edmonton's level of immaturity and give them the goon right back to them, or they could take the high road and convert on the 5 on 3 powerplays handed to them on a silver platter. Instead, Colorado went with option C - none of the above. I'm sorry, folks, but C is the wrong answer.

While I'm disturbed that the Avs could not score on the powerplay, I'm not really surprised. The Avalanche have made some strides in that area, but there's still lots of work to be done (obviously). The Avs have slipped to 16th overall in PP efficiency, and even Peter McNab is whispering in his company-mandated-shiny way that the team needs to get better there. What really gets me, though, is that the Oilers took shots at our players all night long and no one did a thing about it. David Koci? Planted firmly on the bench for the final 35 minutes of the game (does he even bother to come out of the locker room for the 3rd periods?). Cody McLeod? I know he played, because he was -4, but he certainly wasn't taking care of business. Tucker? Stewart? Anyone? This is really the one area where the Avs have taken a significant step backwards this year. Last year, someone would have stepped in when Stasny is getting slammed face first into the boards, or when Marek Svatos is getting cross-checked to the ice after three straight whistles. Is it as simple as missing guys like Lappy or Cody McCormick? Is it a coaching thing? I suspect it might be more of the latter, as Chris Stewart had about 5 fights at this point last year, while he just had his first one last night. And, of course, David Koci may be talented but he can't protect anyone from the bench. I'm all about playing disciplined hockey, but our guys have been getting pushed around all year and I'm sick of this team turtleing. I'm also angry that I don't know how to spell turtleing. Oh well.

I'll say this: if we lose 6-4 but I watched our tough guys answer the bell in the 2nd period, it would still be a loss, but I'd be much less disappointed in the team right now.

Lines

Wolski - Stastny - Jones
Tucker - Duchene - Hejduk
McLeod - O'Reilly - Stewart
Koci - Durno - Svatos

Quincey - Hannan
Cumiskey - Clark
Preissing - Wilson

Quick Hits

The Avalanche won the faceoff battle for the 2nd straight game
The McLeod, O'Reilly and Stewart line was a combined -9 with 2 shots.

Video Highlights

Next Up

The Avalanche are in Vancouver on Friday. Oh joy.

Edmonton @ Long Island Postgame - Well, that was awful

Derek Zona — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 03:44:53 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Kmonicek - AP

about 1 month ago: New York Islanders' Matt Moulson (26); Bruno Gervais (8); Mark Streit (2), of Switzerland; and Mark Tavares (91) celebrate Tavares' goal as Edmonton Oilers' Robert Nilsson skates away during the first period of an NHL hockey game Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, in Uniondale, N.Y. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

Browse more photos »

The search for men willing to imitate NHL forwards continues. Tonight, Pat Quinn only had three of them and they were all on one line. Dustin Penner, Shawn Horcoff and Ales Hemsky put on quite a show but couldn't find the back of the net. The three of them tallied a combined Corsi of 45. The only other forward in black was Zack Stortini's 2. The rest of the forward group? They couldn't be bothered to play in this one. Visnovsky was good, though not his usual excellent self and the newly formed pairing of Jason Strudwick and Tom Gilbert wasn't half bad. The other three couldn't muster anything worthwhile.

I'm being tutored in tracking scoring chances and by my eye - the Hemsky line had about 14 chances on a team that had 20. They gave up about 6 on a team that gave up 20. The rest of this team is in deep when they walk on the ice no matter who the opponent, no matter which line they face. It's getting tiresome. Tamiflu IV stat. Open the line and let it rip. Oh, and bring us some forwards that know this game. The defense wasn't that bad tonight. Chorney and Grebs had problems, but the other pairings were okay and Strudwick had his best game of the year. There are eight forwards not pulling their weight every night.

There was stiff competition for the bottom of the roster awards tonight, with no less than eight guys in the hunt. Three of them were clear of the pack though, and without further ado, the bottom three:

18th Star: The Maginot Line. Khabibulin was in a downswing all night long. Yet another puck misplay led to a chance for the Islanders, and yet another tip went through his not-yet-in-the-butterfly stance. The first goal wasn't his fault as the kid line + Jacques abandoned him, but the rest of the game was an adventure. His rebound control is what we've come to expect and his puck control is something most of us now watch through the cracks in our fingers.

19th Star: Lanterns. Yet another game where a supposedly reliable two-way player is just non-existent. Completely disinterested most of the game taken out early after losing some physical battles. Another case of the flu? Is this another guy that needs Penner or Horcoff to perform? Even when he's getting chances he's finding the goalie's chest or missing the net altogether. He dogged it a number of times in his own zone - much line the way he stood watching the Bruins flurry to end the second period on Saturday. Something is off.

20th Star: Gilbert Brule. He was outmatched all night long. Does he have the swine flu now? There was no physical element to his game, he couldn't keep the puck moving and couldn't get it out of his own zone. He was in chase mode all night long. Without knowing Dennis' totals yet, I can already tell you that he was likely the worst Oiler forward when rated by scoring chance differential. His hot start was on the back of Dustin Penner, if this isn't the flu, any veteran center should be able to shove Brule down to the 4th line without issue.

Peckham's Ankle & His 2009 Training Camp

Derek Zona — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 20:55:23 -0000

by John Ulan - AP

View full size photo »

Jim Matheson reports today in the Edmonton Journal that Theo Peckham

..is iffy to be on the ice to start main camp Sunday at Rexall Place. He injured his ankle training about a month ago and it's still not 100 per cent. It'll be up to the medical people to see how he is.

This is bad news for Peckham. He was to be competing in a battle with Jason Strudwick for the 7th defenseman spot on this year's roster. Given that he's not at full strength, I'd imagine that this means he'll be starting the season in Springfield and will retain his role as the first AHL callup should injuries hit. Foot injuries are fickle, (see: Forsberg, Peter) and it's doubtful Quinn and Renney want to head into the season with a defenseman on a bad wheel, especially if the injury has a chance to be of the lingering variety.

However much the team needs a fellow with Peckham's bonecrushing skills, it's best for Peckham to spend time in Springfield, either on the ice, or healing, whichever the case may be. Sitting in the pressbox for 50 games this year would be of little use to Peckham's development or the Oilers' chances this season. It's unfortunate for the kid that he won't be at full speed to show Quinn and Renney what he's made of, but I suspect he will get his chance before Christmas.

Peckham's injury gives Oilers' fans one less training camp battle to watch over the next month.

As for Springfield, this gives the Falcons two top-end defenders (the Falcons signed veteran Dean Arsene in the offseason) to run at the tough competition and will likely allow Wild and Chorney a much softer landing for a month or two.

Oilers Roundtable, Part IV - Training Camp Battles

Derek Zona — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:05:20 -0000

by Jeff Lewis - AP

View full size photo »

Thus far we've reviewed strengths, there are a few, and weaknesses, there are many, in the 2009 preseason roundtable. Part IV takes a peek at training camp and the player battles that fans can look for as September progresses.

Our lineup includes: the erudite Shepso, author of some of the most intellectual hockey writings - he plies his trade at Bringing Back The Glory; The venerable HBomb, frequent on-point commentor at Lowetide's place; the incisive Dawgbone, a frequent commentor all over the Oilers' 'sphere, who writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; the pragmatic Doogie2k, an excellent foil and a thought-provoking writer at Still No Name; and the hilarious Lord Bob, whose rapier wit is rarely matched in the 'sphere. Jonathan, Bruce and myself round out this merry band of brigands, obsessives, geeks, and puckheads.

4. Coming into training camp, do you think there are any position battles to be won?

Shepso: Oh gawd yes. 3C and 4C are both still wide open, as is 1LW, though the Amicus Brief series proves that DP belongs there should Horcoff and Hemsky not be broken up. I have a feeling that Poo will be our 3C out of training camp, though Brule is more suited for it. Nilsson still has to prove he belongs here, Jacques and Smac will be battling for the utility coke machine position, as clearly Huggy Bear is the main 4th line goon now. Reddox is in tough as well as the last forward. I say he doesn’t make the team and Smac does. I’m also pretty sure that Peckham is going to give the lovable but not-so-skillful Strudwick a run for the 7D in training camp. He’ll lose, but only because Jason is so quotable and great in the pressbox…er…locker room. DD may give JDD a run in training camp, but his time is not quite now. He will play 5-8 games in the bigs this year though.

Hbomb: The goaltending seems set, as does the 7 defensemen. The depth forwards are where the battles are going to be. By my math, you can give spots right now to Hemsky, Horcoff, Penner, Gagner, Cogliano, O'Sullivan, Moreau, and Pisani. That's eight guys right there. In the battle for the other six spots are Robert Nilsson, Gilbert Brule, Marc Pouliot, JF Jacques, Zack Stortini, Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny, Steve MacIntyre, and perhaps Ryan Stone. It's going to depend on what sort of dimension that Pat Quinn wants to bring to his bottom six, and whether or not there's a place at center or on the wing for a guy like Cogliano or O'Sullivan.

Note that I have not included Rob Schremp in this debate. In my mind, he's completely finished as an Oiler prospect and is all-but-certain to be lost on waivers prior to October 1st.

Dawgbone: There's a couple of spots where there should be battles, but I don't think there will be (And I don't think it matters). The biggest issue is that of all the potential battles, none of them really matter much because the players just aren't that good. It's not like we are talking about a player who can potentially challenge a guy like Pisani for a job because the kid is that good. The battles we are talking about is roster spots for Brule, Schremp, Potulny, Stone, Jacques, etc... Not to take anything away from these guys but they just don't make enough of a difference over each other to have any factor in terms of how the season goes.

Doogie2k: The 2C job is an interesting one. In the article I linked above on the centres, I noted basically three players who could theoretically make that position: Gagner, O'Sullivan, and Andrew Cogliano. It'll be interesting to see which one wins out, and how much it reflects the Quinney coaching philosophy. I would be very curious to see what a line with Gagner at centre and O'Sullivan and Cogliano on the wings would be like, aside from horrible at face-offs. Related to that, the top two LW jobs could be up for grabs, particularly if Quinn opts to put O'Sullivan on the wing again, instead of at centre. I suspect Dustin Penner's job is safe, but Robert Nilsson has to be looking over his shoulder, since he could readily be supplanted by Patty O'Lanterns or, if O'Sullivan plays 2C, Sam Gagner. Finally, 3C could potentially be interesting, though it's probably Pouliot's job to lose unless he's supplanted by either O'Sullivan or, as a dark horse, Brule.

Other than that, just the usual jockeying for position in the bottom tier of the roster. Depending on player performance and perceived team needs from the coaching staff, any combination of Reddox, Sestito, Minard, Stone, Potulny, Brule, Jacques, Stortini, MacIntyre, Schremp, Eberle, and Paajarvi-Svensson (okay, maybe not Schremp at this point) could make 10-14F, while the D battle seems mostly won, unless one of the current bottom three (Staios, Smid, Strudwick) gets hurt, gets traded, or completely fails out in camp.

Lord Bob: While not a position battle /per se/, Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney could easily ruin Jason Strudwick's year as the /de facto/ injury replacement. Quinn has had trouble with youngsters but he's been known to take a flyer on a kid who catches his eye. If Peckham or Chorney impress in camp and a defenseman goes down long-term, the Oilers may opt to throw one of the rookies straight into the lineup and Strudwick will continue to sit in the press box. Peckham is obviously the favourite, but Chorney's skillset is more attractive and if he comes to camp motivated, he could make noise.

Bruce: There are always position battles, although in 2009-10 they mainly seem to be concentrated up front. The goalies are set with JDD almost certainly having the jump on Dubnyk for the backup role, while the blueline crew seems fairly settled with a defined top 4, Staios and Smid a solid third pairing, and Strudwick surely slotted for a 7th D/14th F role as last year. Theo Peckham will turn some heads in training camp but barring trade or injury I don't see him forcing his way past anyone in the projected top 6 quite yet.

Up front it's musical chairs with 7 forwards vying for top 6 roles. In theory 1LW is an open competition, with O'Sullivan, Cogliano, even Nilsson nipping at Penner's heels. Only 2 of the "losers" will line up with Gagner on the second scoring line, while the odd man out might find himself centring a tough minutes line (POS, Cogs) or in tough for a job (Nilsson). If the former, then a battle will develop between Pouliot and Brule for the 4C role.

Guys like Potulny, Eberle, and Schremp will make some noise at training camp but are likely battling just to make the 23-man roster in a pressbox role. Ditto MacIntyre.

Derek: I see two primary battles to be settled in camp: first line left wing and second toughs center. Cogliano and Penner will fight it out for the first left wing and the loser will end up on Gagner's port side. O'Sullivan and Pouliot will battle for the second toughs center in a more nuanced battle. Neither are particularly physical, but Pouliot is bigger and seemingly better in the circle. O'Sullivan also has a better resume to this point. I think if O'Sullivan can get some traction in the faceoff circle, the spot between Pisani and Moreau is his. If not, he can end up on Pouliot's left or on Gagner's right. If Pouliot loses, the fourth line center is his. If not, he's leaving Edmonton.

Jonathan: Yes. Up front, there are spots reserved for Gilbert Brule and Jean-Francois Jacques, but they'll need to have strong training camps to hang on to them, as the Oilers have a group of very good AHL players (Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny, Chris Minard, Ryan Stone) who will all be pushing for a role. On top of that, it remains to be seen if Steve MacIntyre's roster spot will go to a fighter; if it does, the Oilers have brought in Kip Brennan to challenge for the role, if not one of the other forwards in the system could snag it. Other than that, there is the slight possibility that Theo Peckham or Devan Dubnyk could pass Jason Strudwick or Jeff Deslauriers in camp.

Poll

Which position battle will last the longest in training camp?

Horcoff's Left Wing

59 votes

Gagner's Right Wing

16 votes

Second Toughs Center

41 votes

Backup Goalie

15 votes

Enforcer

6 votes

Seventh Defenseman

13 votes

Other (Let us know in the comments)

3 votes

153 votes | Poll has closed

The Fan's Roundtable Part II - Strengths

Derek Zona — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 15:00:22 -0000

More photos » by John Ulan - AP

Browse more photos »

Part II of The Copper & Blue's preseason roundtable delves into the strengths of the Oilers, outside of the rabid fanbase, that is. The discussion started with opinions on the new coaching duo, which can be found here.

2. What are the Oilers' greatest strengths heading into 2009-10?

Shepso: The Oilers’ greatest strengths at this point are team defense. That’s a good crop of puck movers. Sure, they’re not as big and mean as the big 3 down highway 2, and Vancouver’s upgrades of Erhoff and Lukowich, along with Old Man Mathieu make them better than they were, but I’m convinced our top 4 guys are as good as any top 4 in the west outside of Detroit and maybe Chicago. The other asset is team skill. We’ve got a fast group of forwards. The key this season is to utilize this speed a little bit more. Fortunately, Quinn likes a strong forecheck, which is going to force some of the smaller, faster players to play bigger than they are. I think that will play to our advantage as long as the smurfs stay strong on the puck. A change in the tactics in the offensive zone (so, not just simply "get the puck in deep, hang on for dear life, pass it to Sheldon and get outta the way" or "pass it to Ales who may or may not shoot today depending on his mood") will do a world of good for these players who have so much collective skill, but have spent the last year or two playing in a system built around fear and the inability to find itself. MacT was a great systems coach for 1 kind of team, the team he took to the SCF. He didn’t have that team anymore, but his tactics didn’t seem to evolve. Quinn is a veteran coach who has taken crap teams in LA, Philly, Van, and Toronto to various levels of success by knowing how to adapt his system to the players around him. That’s why he has 2 Jack Adams trophies and a 3rd nomination. MacT just got a lot of praise in the Edmonton press as being a smart hockey guy. Quinn’s team in the last WJHC was not exactly the hugest team in the tourney, yet they were a very good offensive team using the tools they had. Our skillful smurfs will become the asset they were supposed to be given the right guidance.

Hbomb: The team's strength is obvious: the blueline. High cap-consumption aside, they're in reasonably solid shape from 1-6. Lubomir Visnovsky is a pretty special hockey player, Souray is a fearsome combination of a lethal slapshot and physical play, Tom Gilbert still has room to grow and may have upside higher than we ever could have thought possible when he was first acquired for a month of Tommy Salo in 2004, and Denis Grebeshkov excelled last year, albeit against softer opposition. The third pairing is where it gets interesting. Ladislav Smid is around that 200 NHL game mark where D-men usually settle in and start to take a step forward. I'd say it's reasonable to expect him to step forward and past Steve Staios on the depth chart this season. Staios wouldn't be so bad as sixth defenseman. The problem is that contract, and I'd hope efforts are made to find a home for him elsewhere at the deadline (otherwise, he might be a very well-paid AHLer next season, depending on how much the salary cap drops). The Oilers depth will get tested if they suffer any long-term injuries (Jason Strudwick shouldn't be an every-day NHL defenseman at this point, and Theo Peckham, while promising, should be playing big minutes in Springfield this season and not depended on for NHL contributions at this point).

The team's other notable strength? Ales Hemsky and that excellent contract. Rest-assured, if Hemsky stays healthy this year and is at a point a game or greater, that cap hit is going to be talked about as one the new standards for elite player bargain-buys (with the other one immediately coming to mind being the Ryan Getzlaf contract, despite the fact that deal only bought one year of UFA services), now that Henrik Zetterberg's got himself a new deal in Detroit (and, at 6 million, is still relatively underpaid as one of the most complete players in hockey, for the record). Anytime I hear someone suggest trading Hemsky, I want to yell at them. The guy is flat out too good for too cheap to even consider such a thing at this point.

Dawgbone: Without a doubt it's their blueline. If Visnovsky was healthy last year the Oilers probably make the playoffs (that being said, a healthy Visnovksy is no guarantee in any season). The Oilers top 4 is the best in the division and top 5 in the league, especially if Souray plays like he did last year. Their bottom 2 are adequate (though Staios is too expensive in to be in the bottom 2), and I think got exposed a bit only because of how bad the forwards were last year. I think this defence is better as a unit than the 05-06 blueline (they don't have Pronger, but they are better at every other spot by a fair margin).

Doogie2k: Clearly, the defence. While there's no Pronger-level elite defenceman here, the top four as a whole stacks up well against a lot of top fours in the League. One of the things Quinn has emphasized in his interviews is the value of the breakout pass, and we've got that in spades on this D, with Lubomir Visnovsky, Tom Gilbert, and Denis Grebeshkov all capable as playmakers. Sheldon Souray's obvious value is both in his power-play cannon and his rough, physical style, in contrast to the other three, but his defensive awareness is underrated, in my opinion. Yeah, he's not the best skater and he's going to get turned inside-out occasionally (aside: nice job of backchecking there, Zednik and Rivet; way to help your man out), but when he doesn't have to try to keep up with a speeding forward, I don't recall seeing him in a bad position very often. The other three, in addition to having good playmaking abilities, are also perfectly capable in the defensive zone: losing Lubo, especially with Gilbert already playing through a bad back for much of the year, really hurt the team's chances at the playoffs last season, and I think having a healthy top four is going to go a long way to improving the situation on both sides of the puck. As for the rest, Steve Staios is getting up there in years, and gets himself into trouble when he tries to do too much, but my biggest issue with him, truthfully, is his salary: he's getting paid way too much money to play the 5D position. Ladislav Smid is young but improving, and should take another step forward this year. Jason Strudwick...eh, I don't get the praise he's been lavished with, but for the 7D position, I'll survive. I'd rather see Theo Peckham play 20 games in the NHL and 50 in the AHL, personally, but I can't gripe too much.

I'm also a believer in Nikolai Khabibulin, and probably the only one around these parts. I understand the objections, but at the same time, I'm not convinced that being 36 in 2009 is the same sort of problem it was in 1999 or 1989, nor am I convinced that putting up bad SV% numbers on some terrible Blackhawks teams is any evidence that he's going to be bad on this team, especially when I've just cited the defence as a potential strength. Besides, we just had an even older fart of a goaltender come off his best season not spent behind Jacques Lemaire's trap. If Khabibulin starts actually stinking out the joint, then I'll join the chorus of howling, but otherwise, I'm confident that he's good enough to keep this rebuilding team afloat.

Lord Bob: Defense is Edmonton's only real strength. As a 1-2-3-4 combination, Souray, Visnovsky, Gilbert and Grebeshkov rate in the league's top five, and our depth, long a question mark, is an asset with the progress of Peckham and Chorney as well as veterans such as Strudwick and Arsene. The blue treaded water in spite of losing the team's All-Star break MVP in Visnovsky, and the youngsters are better this season.

Bruce: Oilers have a few strengths in '09-10. Their coaching staff is one of the most experienced in NHL history and should be a strength, as long as Quinn, Renney and Fleming don't step on each others' toes. Bucky's job is to watch and learn ... and teach.

The top 4 defenders are very strong, and the third pairing ain't bad either. My hope is that Gilbert, Grebeshkov and Smid are improving faster than Visnovsky, Souray and Staios may be deteriorating. For sure it's now a veteran-laden crew, with the seven holdovers having combined for 3114 GP with nobody fewer than 176.

I'm also happy with a first line of Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky, which has been a significant outscorer (+41/-16) when playing as a trio at even strength the last two years. Let's hope the brain trust will put them back together and bloody well leave them together for at least the first 20 games.

I think Oilers' powerplay is a potential strength as well. The personnel are in place; it's time to execute.

Derek: If they work well together and understand their strengths and weaknesses as a duo, the biggest strength for this team is coaching. In Quinn, the team gets a guy that forces star production out of his stars and gets his role players to run through walls for him, but not so much produce. Renney is not a motivator, though he's been able to coax production out of sullen stars and uses his role players in order to maximize effectiveness. Quinn is not a tactical master and likes old-time hockey in a way. Renney is a fantastic tactician that knows how to use matchups and protect his faults. Quinn employs a hard style with a strong forecheck. Renney is a penalty kill wizard. If these two can make this relationship work, the Oilers will have their most well-rounded bench presence since...arguably ever.

Jonathan: While defense is obviously the positional strength of the team this coming season, I'm going to go with ownership. In Daryl Katz, Edmonton has an owner who is committed to the Oilers for the long haul. He's got deep pockets, and it seems like he's also going to be able to force through a new arena which, while arguably not in the city's best interest is certainly in the interest of the team. Over the short term, we've heard some stories about Katz meddling on the hockey side, but over the long haul a stable, deeply-pocketed owner is going to make this a franchise to contend with - because if the current hockey operations department can't get the job done, he'll certainly bring in one who can.

Poll

What are the Oilers' greatest strengths heading into 2009-10?

Defense

115 votes

Coaching

47 votes

Ownership

20 votes

Other (let us know in the comments)

5 votes

187 votes | Poll has closed

Defensive Depth: An "Embarrassment of Riches" or Overrated?

Jonathan Willis — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 14:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Aaron J. Latham - AP

Jason Strudwick and Ladislav Smid watch as the woeful Coyotes pot a goal.

Browse more photos »

Oilers' GM Steve Tambellini was recently interviewed by 630 CHED's Dan Tencer, and the following clip caught my notice:

Steve Tambellini: "...That's the strength of our hockey club, and we're weighted to that side right now. I know Pat and Tom and Kelly right now are excited to see these guys healthy and on the ice and see what they look like under this system. You can argue with some areas of our hockey club, but the depth of our D right now with Strudwick and Peckham filling in on the bottom end, and Chorney coming and some of these other kids that are coming - there's good depth there.

Dan Tencer: "I would say it's an embarrasment of riches actually. You've got guys like Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney who probably are 6 or 7 guys right now - certainly Theo Peckham is a number 7 guy, or capable of being a number 7 guy. You throw Strudwick in, we haven't even talked about Staios... there are 8 or 9 guys who could potentially play NHL games with a lot of teams and not look out of place.

Both, I think, are overrating the Oilers' depth defenders.

I should clarify when I say that, though: I think the Oilers top-four are a definite strength of this hockey club, but after that things are far less clear. Here's how I see the depth chart right now:

Let's have a look at the bottom five players on that list.

Ladislav Smid

A lot depends on how an individual views Ladislav Smid. Many fans view him as top-four ready right now, but I think a view closer to reality is that, as he is, he's a bottom-pairing defenseman. According to Behind the Net, Smid played the sixth-best opposition with the sixth-best linemates among Oilers defensemen. Unlike the top four guys (who ranged between +5.8 and -3.5 in Corsi/60) , Smid was getting buried (-13.4 Corsi/60). His -5 rating was earned. Now, he's also a young guy who brings size and a physical dimension, plus he's getting into those years where he makes a difference, but as it stands he's a third-pairing guy until he shows otherwise.

Ranking: Third-pairing defenseman.

Steve Staios

I don't think Staios has a snowball's chance in hell of covering his cap hit, but I think that's probably covered my perception of his performance. I'm not even sure he shouldn't be above Smid on the depth chart. HockeyAnalysis.com gives us an idea of his performance with different defense partners that I think is illuminating (I've multiplied the numbers by 3 to get a per/60 ratio):

510:27 with Souray: 2.59 GFON/60 - 1.88 GAON/60 = +0.71 +/- per 60
407:18 with Smid: 1.77 GFON/60 - 2.36 GAON/60 = -0.59 +/- per 60
278:48 with Strudwick: 1.08 GFON/60 - 2.80 GAON/60 = -1.72 +/- per 60

I think that's a revealing chart. The Staios/Strudwick pairing was an absolute disaster; one of the enduring mysteries about last season was the sheer volume of positive press that Strudwick got from people connected to the team. To my eye he wasn't overly effective, and the numbers are vicious. Staios/Smid weren't great, but they weren't bad either. And before everybody jumps aboard the Staios/Souray bandwagon, the only reason their numbers are so good is because of an incredible .945 on-ice save percentage when together; their Corsi number was a less than spectacular -72.

Ranking: Third-pairing defenseman.

Jason Strudwick

I suppose I tipped my hand above when I talked about the mystery of the Oilers' love for Jason Strudwick. He lucked out with a nice on-ice save percentage, but he bled shots against all year and made every defensive tandem he was on worse. I thought he was better in his brief cameo as a left wing. His Corsi/60 number (-14.8) was the worst among Oilers' regulars, and he lucked out to some extent with solid on-ice save percentage (.932) and shooting percentage (8.4%) numbers.

He faced soft competition and still struggled to hold his own. I don't mind him as the seldom-used depth defenseman, but I think it's a stretch to say that he's ready for a top-six role. His size and physical willingness are plusses, and they may be enough to get him into the lineup under Pat Quinn.

Ranking: Reserve defenseman.

Theo Peckham

I'm bullish on Peckham's potential, and he was one of the few bright spots on last year's miserable Springfield Falcons. He played far and away the toughest competition, added some offense (19 points in 47 games) and didn't get killed in goals against (a very respectable -7). He's a willing shot-blocker, uses his size, and has no compunction about fighting. That said, I do think he could use another year in the minors. His Corsi/60 rating was atrocious (-21.2) in fifteen NHL games and he struggled a bit with NHL speed.

All of that said, he's a fine option at #8 and not one of the weak links on the depth chart.

Ranking: #7/#8 defenseman.

Taylor Chorney

Taylor Chorney is a prospect whose numbers are way out of line to the scouting reports. He didn't play top opposition, contributed less offense than Peckham (.309 points per game vs. .404 points per game in the AHL), and on top of all that led the Falcons with a -29 rating. The next worst defenseman was Chorney's frequent partner Mathieu Roy, at -20. He's undersized, and was unimpressive in a brief NHL cameo to end the season.

Speaking of that brief NHL cameo, the numbers are probably meaningless but still fun to look at: -67.6 Corsi/60 and 9.66 GAON/60. Chorney isn't a top-pairing defenseman in the AHL, and the dropoff between Peckham and Chorney is incredible.

Ranking: AHL'er.

Final Analysis

This isn't a bad group - guys are slotted in where they belong, for the most part (with spare parts Strudwick and Chorney being the sole players above where they should be) and that's a situation both welcome and surprising given this team's tendencies. However, trading a defenseman without replacing him will seriously test this group's depth - particularly when injuries hit.

Poll

How good is the Oilers' defensive depth?

Great! They can trade a guy and not miss a beat.

57 votes

Fine. They're set, and that's good enough.

100 votes

Poor. They need help, and quickly.

5 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed

A Quick And Early Look At The Northwest Division Rivals

Sean Zandberg — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 07:59:19 -0000

NHL.com has just listed the Canucks as one of their top 10 teams on the rise, saying:

Losing Mattias Ohlund could hurt, but that was buried under the important re-signings of the Sedin twins. Roberto Luongo is at the top of his game and will be motivated by the opportunity to get hot and start for Canada in the Olympics. Alex Burrows, Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa and Alexander Edler only are getting better. Mikael Samuelsson, signed away from the Detroit Red Wings can make the power play better.

Convincing, huh? No not really. However, are the Canucks really worse off on paper than last year? Not really. I just find it odd that the writer calls them a team on the rise when they already won the Northwest Division title. Alas, you never know what can happen, and so many variables are involved (like what division rivals are doing in the off season).

Note: No other Northwest Division teams made the list.

Here's a quick look at how the other teams in our division are shaping up this summer. NOTE: **Yes, every other team in the NW has made a coaching change, as the guys quickly reminded me)** But I'm just focusing on the player additions.

CALGARY FLAMES

IN: D Jay Bouwmeester, F Fredrick Sjostrom

OUT: D Adrian Aucoin, F Todd Bertuzzi, F Mike Cammalleri, D Anders Eriksson, F Jamie Lundmark, F Warren Peters, F Andre Roy, D Rhett Warrener

Cap Spending: $54.29 million

Adding the coveted Bouwmeester meant that the Flames had to part ways with Mike Cammalleri. They have so much money invested in Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Jokinen, Iginla and Kiprusoff that they can spend no more. They are now thick on D and more shallow up front. I still think the addition of Olli Jokinen at the deadline was a joke, yet he may rack up the points this year as he plays more with the team. Who knows. Glad they have him and not us.

Better or Worse? Potentially worse. Secondary scoring may be quite tough to come by beyond Iginla, Jokinen and Langkow.

EDMONTON OILERS

IN: G Nicolai Khabibulin

OUT: F Ales Kotalik, G Dwayne Roloson, G Dany Sabourin, D Jason Strudwick

Cap Spending: $51.40 million.

Not much change here except between the pipes, where Khabibulin may be an upgrade over Dwayne Roloson. I say "may be" because the Oilers are a run and gun team. Khabby is going to see a lot more quantity and quality shots in Edmonton. Let's see how he fares with that.

Edmonton's fate lies with the health of Sheldon Souray and Lubomir Visnovsky. They have over $13 million invested in those 2 defencemen. Madness I say. Up front they have a lot of young guys who may find their stride after sophomore seasons and what-not.

Are they going to add Dany Heatley or not? He could change the Coilers' fortunes.

Better or Worse? About the same.

MINNESOTA WILD

IN: F Martin Havlat, potentially F Kyle Brodziak (RFA), D Greg Zanon, G Wade Dubielwicz

OUT: D Marc-Andre Bergeron, D Kurtis Foster, F Marian Gaborik, F Krys Kolanos, F Corey Locke, F Bryan Lundbohm, D Tomas Mojzis, G Nolan Schaefer, D Jesse Schultz, D Martin Skoula, F Stephane Veilleux,

Cap Spending: $51.43 million

I am still laughing at the Wild letting injury-prone Marian Gaborik go and then acquiring injury-prone Martin Havlat. I don't care if Havlat played 81 games last season. Look at his track record. Plus it was a contract year. Let's start placing bets on how many games he plays this year. I'll start the betting with 55 games.

The Wild need more help up front, and they may just get that as trading Josh Harding is imminent.

Better or Worse? Worse

COLORADO AVALANCHE

IN: D Tom Preissing, D Kyle Quincey, G Craig Anderson, and Potentially 1st Round Draft Pick Matt Duchene

OUT: F Tyler Arnason, F Jesse Boulerice, F Ben Guite, F Ian Laperriere, F Matt Hendricks, F Per Ledin, D Aaron MacKenzie, D Lawrence Nycholat, G Andrew Raycroft, F Joe Sakic, F Nathan Smith, D Daniel Tjarnqvist, F Brian Willsie, F Cody McCormick

Cap Spending: $49.71 million

It's all about rebuilding for the Avalanche. especially up front. The goaltending and defence are set and more experienced. Canucks fans may get a good look at Matt Duchene, a former teammate of Cody Hodgson. It will be a mighty surprise if the Avalanche make the playoffs this year, but at least they are taking the right steps. Losing Sakic's presence will hurt, just as it did last season, but at least they have an upgrade in goal adding Craig Anderson.

Better or Worse? A bit better. They can't be any worse than last year's 69 points.

-------------------------------------------------------------

Considering how often we play these teams each year I'm feeling optimistic. But you can never take any of these teams for granted. The Canucks are going to have to play better against lesser teams than they did last year.

Like I said, this is a quick and early look at these teams. They still have lots of summer left to tinker with their rosters.

Day 2: 2009 NHL Free Agency Live Thread

David Driscoll-Carignan — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:26:11 -0000

More photos » by Paul Beaty - AP

The Bulin Wall is moving to Edmonton. (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

Browse more photos »

Most of us weren't expecting anything earth-shattering from the newly budget-conscious Avalanche, and that's basically what we got. The Avalanche signed just two players yesterday. First, they signed Florida backup Craig Anderson to a 2-year, $3.6 million contract. As I mentioned yesterday, I really like this deal on several levels. Anderson is a talented goalie, but Budaj will also have his opportunity as well. A good signing by Greg Sherman. As MHH community member hockeymom reported, Anderson was in Colorado recently for the 24 Hours of Hockey Aurora Children's Hospital Benefit. Coincidence? The Avalanche also signed enforcer David Koci. I'm not as excited about this one. Perhaps the Avalanche missed the memo that the single-faceted goons are becoming extinct. Teams are moving more towards players who can play a little bit, and fight when called upon. Guys like Ian Laperriere and Cody McCormick. Oops.

So far, it seems clear that the Avalanche are committed to keeping their payroll under control. Whether they are doing this to make more money for Stan Kroenke or if they are just maneuvering to position themselves to grab one of the succulent fruits from the free agent tree next summer (Kovalchuk) remains to be seen. Either way, the purse strings are certainly not open right now, and I suspect Anderson may be the biggest Avalanche signing to date. We've got this live thread going, though, just in case anything happens.

You might also want to keep an eye on Dater's blog as he was the one who broke the Anderson signing long before the ESPN guys could ~~rip him off~~ cite him as a source. He also had the news that Ty Conklin was not coming to Denver and that Brian Willsie is in negotiations with the team (inexplicably). And probably something about Ambien, too, but I'm not 100% sure on that. Oh wait, he also confirmed for us that Michael Vernace and Jason Bacashihua were not given qualifying offers (a bit of a head scratcher, that). Clearly, NH grows some talented Avalanche writers.

Around the NW, the Canucks lost Mathias Ohlund (as expected) but retained the Sedins and still have plenty of money left over to give to Mats Sundin next February. The Wild replaced Marian Gaborik with a cheaper Martin Havlat (a move that I like). The Flames already had acquired Jay Boumeester before the start of free agency. And the Oilers upgraded their team significantly (in my opinion) by signing Nikolia Khabibulin. Four of the five NW teams now have a stud goalie, and divisional games will be tough for the Avs.

Mile High Hockey free agency cheat sheet.

G Peter Budaj (Col): 1 year / $1.25 million
G Craig Anderson (Fla): 2 years / $1.8 million
F David Koci (TB): 1 year / $575K

Copper And Blue free agency cheat sheet.

G Nikolai Khabibulin (Chi): 4 years / $3.75 million
D Jason Strudwick (Edm): 1 year / $700k

Matchsticks & Gasoline free agency cheat sheet.

D Jay Bouwmeester (Cal): 5 Years / $6.6 million
F Fredrik Sjostrom (NYR): 2 years/ $750K

Hockey Wildereness free agency cheat sheet.

F Martin Havlat (Chi): 5 years / $6 million

Nucks Misconduct free agency cheat sheet

F Daniel Sedin (Van): 5 years / $6.1 million
F Henrik Sedin (Van): 5 years / $6.1 million
D Aaron Rome (CBJ): 1 year / $550k

Notable Ex-Avs

F Ian Laperriere: Philadelphia 3 years / $1.17 million
F Ben Guite
F Tyler Arnason
G Andrew Raycroft
F Stephane Yelle
F Alex Tanguay
D Patrice Brisebois
D Derek Morris
F Bates Battaglia
F Chris Gratton
D Greg de Vries
D Ken Klee
F Dan Hinote
D Karlis Skrastins: Dallas 2 years / $1.375 million