SB Nation - Theo Peckham

December Desjardins' NHLE for Oilers Prospects

Derek Zona — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 04:05:17 -0000

23 days ago: Edmonton Oilers' Colin McDonald (57) collides with San Jose Sharks' Ryane Clowe during the first period of an NHL hockey game in Edmonton, Alberta, on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, John Ulan)

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Alexei Mikhnov makes a huge leap in the NHLE chart, so either he's been on fire for seven games, or there was a reporting error on his KHL stats when we last looked in at the prospect list. NHLE is NHL Equivalency, as developed by Gabriel Desjardins of the Behindthenet.ca and the his site: Behind The Net Hockey.

Eberle's domination of the WHL continues, and Linus Omark has been playing really well for the last few weeks, as reported by our own JohanBarrander.

Player - League	DOB	Drafted	GP	G	A	P	NHL PPG	NHL82
Jordan Eberle - WHL	5/15/90	22	28	8	9	17	.621	51
Linus Omark - KHL	2/5/87	97	34	13	7	20	.586	48
Alexei Mikhnov - KHL	8/31/82	17	27	4	11	15	.553	45
Magnus-Pääjärvi Svensson - SEL	4/12/91	10	31	7	9	16	.503	41
Riley Nash - NCAA	5/9/89	21	11	1	4	5	.410	34
Philippe Cornet - QMJHL	3/28/90	133	35	5	9	14	.406	33
Chris Vande Velde - NCAA	3/15/87	97	17	2	4	6	.362	30
Alexander Bumagin - KHL	3/1/87	170	32	4	3	7	.311	26
Teemu Hartikainen - SM-Liiga	5/3/90	163	28	2	6	8	.309	25
Toni Rajala - WHL	3/29/91	101	29	4	4	8	.300	25
Anton Lander - SEL	4/24/91	40	31	3	5	8	.277	23
Milan Kytnar - WHL	5/19/89	127	16	1	2	3	.181	15
Colin McDonald - AHL	9/30/84	51	25	2	2	4	.158	13
Vyacheslav Trukhno - AHL	2/22/87	120	28	1	2	3	.110	9

Jeff Petry - NCAA	12/9/87	45	20	1	6	7	.328	27
Cody Wild - AHL	6/5/87	140	21	0	4	4	.210	17
Kyle Bigos - NCAA	5/12/89	99	15	1	1	2	.164	13
Theo Peckham - AHL	11/10/87	75	20	0	3	3	.132	11
Johan Motin - AHL	10/10/89	103	23	1	1	2	.077	6
Alexandre Plante - AHL	5/9/89	15	27	0	2	2	.065	5

Alex Plante is struggling at the AHL level and these point levels include some power play time, which he's not making the most of. Cody Wild shows up here again and the mystery continues - the numbers have been solid to good and certainly in front of Taylor Chorney, yet he remains mired in the depth chart.

What can we say about Vyacheslav Trukhno at this point? It looks grim.

Remember, Gabe's methodology:

One way to evaluate the difficulty of one league relative to another is examine the relative performance of players who have played in both leagues. Players rarely play significant time in two leagues in the same year, but they often play in one league in one year and in another the next. As long as a player’s skill level is approximately constant over this two year period, the ratio of his performance in each league can be used to estimate the relative difficulty of the two leagues.

Oilers participating in Movember

James Mirtle — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 02:28:24 -0000

Taylor Chorney, for those who don't know. Here's the press release (with photo gallery):

Eight of the Edmonton Oilers are joining the fight against prostate cancer this month by participating in Movember. Throughout November, participating players will grow moustaches in support of prostate cancer research. The Edmonton Oilers Community Foundation will be accepting donations on behalf of the Movember Foundation on edmontonoilers.com.

"We’re very proud to see a number of our players participate in Movember." said Natalie Minckler, EOCF’s Executive Director. "Not only have they shown leadership by joining this important cause but their participation is a product of their own initiative."

Oilers forward Sam Gagner initiated the idea and enrolled his teammates Gilbert Brule, Taylor Chorney, J-F Jacques, Patrick O’Sullivan, Ryan Stone, Theo Peckham and Zack Stortini.

George Parros, in other words, will soon have some competition.

Theo Peckham Called Up

Scott Reynolds — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 00:50:36 -0000

Today the Edmonton Oilers made the call to Springfield and brought Theo Peckham up to the big club. Pat Quinn said today that "if Mike [Comrie] can't come down to Calgary tomorrow, then there's a good chance that Jason [Strudwick] will be lined up at foward." Now, much to my chagrin, the Oilers have been using the Strudwick-Chorney pairing regularly on the PK so it will be interesting to see how Renney switches things up there. Strudwick's also been used late in games when protecting a lead. There's probably some chance that Strudwick will drop back in those situations and play both defence and forward tomorrow night against Calgary. At any rate, it will be interesting to see what Renney does with two rookies on the blueline and one of the guys he trusts (Strudwick also played quite a lot of minutes with the Rangers when Renney was the head man there) playing forward.

Oilers Re-Assign Five and Quinn's Press Conference

Derek Zona — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 03:21:20 -0000

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Following their game against Vancouver this evening, the Edmonton Oilers held a post-game press conference to announce that Jordan Eberle has been assigned to WHL and Rob Schremp has placed on waivers. Taylor Chorney, Kip Brennan & Devan Dubnyk have been assigned to Springfield. Theo Peckham has been placed on IR.

Some off-the-cuff analysis:

Theo Peckham's injury continues to be a cause for concern. He was so close, and he hasn't been able to work in some time. I don' t think he's in danger of being passed by as no one is close. It's something to keep an eye on if it lingers.
Eberle wasn't ready. He looked good at times, but it was against weak competition.
Chorney looked much better this year than last and he should be paired with Peckham in Springfield this year and won't have to run the tough matchups.
The Rob Schremp saga is likely over.

Notes from Quinn's press conference:

Pisani has a back problem that has flared up twice, Pouliot has a "pubis whatever", and Moreau is dinged up with a pull and not serious. Quinn mentioned that he also has a pull that is causing him some problems when he's getting up and down from the bench. " Peckham still has yet to pass the medical." I think any "pubis whatever" should be treated with utmost care.
"We'll have, ah, Jacques in the lineup and likely have Stone in the lineup." - I wonder if he's framing that around Pisani's injury.
"We wanted some bigger guys, er, or some crustier guys..." - He added "crustier" to include Brule.
"You can't win with 22 Rob Schremps."
Quinn once again hammered on the defense and chastised them for going "D to D and going backwards" and hiding behind the net. He also mentioned hammering it around the boards and called it "bailout stuff". It's like he's talking to Steve Staios directly. Quinn has really been after the defense in his pressers since camp opened.

Peckham's Ankle & His 2009 Training Camp

Derek Zona — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 20:55:23 -0000

by John Ulan - AP

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Jim Matheson reports today in the Edmonton Journal that Theo Peckham

..is iffy to be on the ice to start main camp Sunday at Rexall Place. He injured his ankle training about a month ago and it's still not 100 per cent. It'll be up to the medical people to see how he is.

This is bad news for Peckham. He was to be competing in a battle with Jason Strudwick for the 7th defenseman spot on this year's roster. Given that he's not at full strength, I'd imagine that this means he'll be starting the season in Springfield and will retain his role as the first AHL callup should injuries hit. Foot injuries are fickle, (see: Forsberg, Peter) and it's doubtful Quinn and Renney want to head into the season with a defenseman on a bad wheel, especially if the injury has a chance to be of the lingering variety.

However much the team needs a fellow with Peckham's bonecrushing skills, it's best for Peckham to spend time in Springfield, either on the ice, or healing, whichever the case may be. Sitting in the pressbox for 50 games this year would be of little use to Peckham's development or the Oilers' chances this season. It's unfortunate for the kid that he won't be at full speed to show Quinn and Renney what he's made of, but I suspect he will get his chance before Christmas.

Peckham's injury gives Oilers' fans one less training camp battle to watch over the next month.

As for Springfield, this gives the Falcons two top-end defenders (the Falcons signed veteran Dean Arsene in the offseason) to run at the tough competition and will likely allow Wild and Chorney a much softer landing for a month or two.

Oilers Roundtable, Part IV - Training Camp Battles

Derek Zona — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 13:05:20 -0000

by Jeff Lewis - AP

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Thus far we've reviewed strengths, there are a few, and weaknesses, there are many, in the 2009 preseason roundtable. Part IV takes a peek at training camp and the player battles that fans can look for as September progresses.

Our lineup includes: the erudite Shepso, author of some of the most intellectual hockey writings - he plies his trade at Bringing Back The Glory; The venerable HBomb, frequent on-point commentor at Lowetide's place; the incisive Dawgbone, a frequent commentor all over the Oilers' 'sphere, who writes too infrequently at After The Green Light; the pragmatic Doogie2k, an excellent foil and a thought-provoking writer at Still No Name; and the hilarious Lord Bob, whose rapier wit is rarely matched in the 'sphere. Jonathan, Bruce and myself round out this merry band of brigands, obsessives, geeks, and puckheads.

4. Coming into training camp, do you think there are any position battles to be won?

Shepso: Oh gawd yes. 3C and 4C are both still wide open, as is 1LW, though the Amicus Brief series proves that DP belongs there should Horcoff and Hemsky not be broken up. I have a feeling that Poo will be our 3C out of training camp, though Brule is more suited for it. Nilsson still has to prove he belongs here, Jacques and Smac will be battling for the utility coke machine position, as clearly Huggy Bear is the main 4th line goon now. Reddox is in tough as well as the last forward. I say he doesn’t make the team and Smac does. I’m also pretty sure that Peckham is going to give the lovable but not-so-skillful Strudwick a run for the 7D in training camp. He’ll lose, but only because Jason is so quotable and great in the pressbox…er…locker room. DD may give JDD a run in training camp, but his time is not quite now. He will play 5-8 games in the bigs this year though.

Hbomb: The goaltending seems set, as does the 7 defensemen. The depth forwards are where the battles are going to be. By my math, you can give spots right now to Hemsky, Horcoff, Penner, Gagner, Cogliano, O'Sullivan, Moreau, and Pisani. That's eight guys right there. In the battle for the other six spots are Robert Nilsson, Gilbert Brule, Marc Pouliot, JF Jacques, Zack Stortini, Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny, Steve MacIntyre, and perhaps Ryan Stone. It's going to depend on what sort of dimension that Pat Quinn wants to bring to his bottom six, and whether or not there's a place at center or on the wing for a guy like Cogliano or O'Sullivan.

Note that I have not included Rob Schremp in this debate. In my mind, he's completely finished as an Oiler prospect and is all-but-certain to be lost on waivers prior to October 1st.

Dawgbone: There's a couple of spots where there should be battles, but I don't think there will be (And I don't think it matters). The biggest issue is that of all the potential battles, none of them really matter much because the players just aren't that good. It's not like we are talking about a player who can potentially challenge a guy like Pisani for a job because the kid is that good. The battles we are talking about is roster spots for Brule, Schremp, Potulny, Stone, Jacques, etc... Not to take anything away from these guys but they just don't make enough of a difference over each other to have any factor in terms of how the season goes.

Doogie2k: The 2C job is an interesting one. In the article I linked above on the centres, I noted basically three players who could theoretically make that position: Gagner, O'Sullivan, and Andrew Cogliano. It'll be interesting to see which one wins out, and how much it reflects the Quinney coaching philosophy. I would be very curious to see what a line with Gagner at centre and O'Sullivan and Cogliano on the wings would be like, aside from horrible at face-offs. Related to that, the top two LW jobs could be up for grabs, particularly if Quinn opts to put O'Sullivan on the wing again, instead of at centre. I suspect Dustin Penner's job is safe, but Robert Nilsson has to be looking over his shoulder, since he could readily be supplanted by Patty O'Lanterns or, if O'Sullivan plays 2C, Sam Gagner. Finally, 3C could potentially be interesting, though it's probably Pouliot's job to lose unless he's supplanted by either O'Sullivan or, as a dark horse, Brule.

Other than that, just the usual jockeying for position in the bottom tier of the roster. Depending on player performance and perceived team needs from the coaching staff, any combination of Reddox, Sestito, Minard, Stone, Potulny, Brule, Jacques, Stortini, MacIntyre, Schremp, Eberle, and Paajarvi-Svensson (okay, maybe not Schremp at this point) could make 10-14F, while the D battle seems mostly won, unless one of the current bottom three (Staios, Smid, Strudwick) gets hurt, gets traded, or completely fails out in camp.

Lord Bob: While not a position battle /per se/, Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney could easily ruin Jason Strudwick's year as the /de facto/ injury replacement. Quinn has had trouble with youngsters but he's been known to take a flyer on a kid who catches his eye. If Peckham or Chorney impress in camp and a defenseman goes down long-term, the Oilers may opt to throw one of the rookies straight into the lineup and Strudwick will continue to sit in the press box. Peckham is obviously the favourite, but Chorney's skillset is more attractive and if he comes to camp motivated, he could make noise.

Bruce: There are always position battles, although in 2009-10 they mainly seem to be concentrated up front. The goalies are set with JDD almost certainly having the jump on Dubnyk for the backup role, while the blueline crew seems fairly settled with a defined top 4, Staios and Smid a solid third pairing, and Strudwick surely slotted for a 7th D/14th F role as last year. Theo Peckham will turn some heads in training camp but barring trade or injury I don't see him forcing his way past anyone in the projected top 6 quite yet.

Up front it's musical chairs with 7 forwards vying for top 6 roles. In theory 1LW is an open competition, with O'Sullivan, Cogliano, even Nilsson nipping at Penner's heels. Only 2 of the "losers" will line up with Gagner on the second scoring line, while the odd man out might find himself centring a tough minutes line (POS, Cogs) or in tough for a job (Nilsson). If the former, then a battle will develop between Pouliot and Brule for the 4C role.

Guys like Potulny, Eberle, and Schremp will make some noise at training camp but are likely battling just to make the 23-man roster in a pressbox role. Ditto MacIntyre.

Derek: I see two primary battles to be settled in camp: first line left wing and second toughs center. Cogliano and Penner will fight it out for the first left wing and the loser will end up on Gagner's port side. O'Sullivan and Pouliot will battle for the second toughs center in a more nuanced battle. Neither are particularly physical, but Pouliot is bigger and seemingly better in the circle. O'Sullivan also has a better resume to this point. I think if O'Sullivan can get some traction in the faceoff circle, the spot between Pisani and Moreau is his. If not, he can end up on Pouliot's left or on Gagner's right. If Pouliot loses, the fourth line center is his. If not, he's leaving Edmonton.

Jonathan: Yes. Up front, there are spots reserved for Gilbert Brule and Jean-Francois Jacques, but they'll need to have strong training camps to hang on to them, as the Oilers have a group of very good AHL players (Liam Reddox, Ryan Potulny, Chris Minard, Ryan Stone) who will all be pushing for a role. On top of that, it remains to be seen if Steve MacIntyre's roster spot will go to a fighter; if it does, the Oilers have brought in Kip Brennan to challenge for the role, if not one of the other forwards in the system could snag it. Other than that, there is the slight possibility that Theo Peckham or Devan Dubnyk could pass Jason Strudwick or Jeff Deslauriers in camp.

Poll

Which position battle will last the longest in training camp?

Horcoff's Left Wing

59 votes

Gagner's Right Wing

16 votes

Second Toughs Center

41 votes

Backup Goalie

15 votes

Enforcer

6 votes

Seventh Defenseman

13 votes

Other (Let us know in the comments)

3 votes

153 votes | Poll has closed

The Fan's Roundtable Part II - Strengths

Derek Zona — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 15:00:22 -0000

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Part II of The Copper & Blue's preseason roundtable delves into the strengths of the Oilers, outside of the rabid fanbase, that is. The discussion started with opinions on the new coaching duo, which can be found here.

2. What are the Oilers' greatest strengths heading into 2009-10?

Shepso: The Oilers’ greatest strengths at this point are team defense. That’s a good crop of puck movers. Sure, they’re not as big and mean as the big 3 down highway 2, and Vancouver’s upgrades of Erhoff and Lukowich, along with Old Man Mathieu make them better than they were, but I’m convinced our top 4 guys are as good as any top 4 in the west outside of Detroit and maybe Chicago. The other asset is team skill. We’ve got a fast group of forwards. The key this season is to utilize this speed a little bit more. Fortunately, Quinn likes a strong forecheck, which is going to force some of the smaller, faster players to play bigger than they are. I think that will play to our advantage as long as the smurfs stay strong on the puck. A change in the tactics in the offensive zone (so, not just simply "get the puck in deep, hang on for dear life, pass it to Sheldon and get outta the way" or "pass it to Ales who may or may not shoot today depending on his mood") will do a world of good for these players who have so much collective skill, but have spent the last year or two playing in a system built around fear and the inability to find itself. MacT was a great systems coach for 1 kind of team, the team he took to the SCF. He didn’t have that team anymore, but his tactics didn’t seem to evolve. Quinn is a veteran coach who has taken crap teams in LA, Philly, Van, and Toronto to various levels of success by knowing how to adapt his system to the players around him. That’s why he has 2 Jack Adams trophies and a 3rd nomination. MacT just got a lot of praise in the Edmonton press as being a smart hockey guy. Quinn’s team in the last WJHC was not exactly the hugest team in the tourney, yet they were a very good offensive team using the tools they had. Our skillful smurfs will become the asset they were supposed to be given the right guidance.

Hbomb: The team's strength is obvious: the blueline. High cap-consumption aside, they're in reasonably solid shape from 1-6. Lubomir Visnovsky is a pretty special hockey player, Souray is a fearsome combination of a lethal slapshot and physical play, Tom Gilbert still has room to grow and may have upside higher than we ever could have thought possible when he was first acquired for a month of Tommy Salo in 2004, and Denis Grebeshkov excelled last year, albeit against softer opposition. The third pairing is where it gets interesting. Ladislav Smid is around that 200 NHL game mark where D-men usually settle in and start to take a step forward. I'd say it's reasonable to expect him to step forward and past Steve Staios on the depth chart this season. Staios wouldn't be so bad as sixth defenseman. The problem is that contract, and I'd hope efforts are made to find a home for him elsewhere at the deadline (otherwise, he might be a very well-paid AHLer next season, depending on how much the salary cap drops). The Oilers depth will get tested if they suffer any long-term injuries (Jason Strudwick shouldn't be an every-day NHL defenseman at this point, and Theo Peckham, while promising, should be playing big minutes in Springfield this season and not depended on for NHL contributions at this point).

The team's other notable strength? Ales Hemsky and that excellent contract. Rest-assured, if Hemsky stays healthy this year and is at a point a game or greater, that cap hit is going to be talked about as one the new standards for elite player bargain-buys (with the other one immediately coming to mind being the Ryan Getzlaf contract, despite the fact that deal only bought one year of UFA services), now that Henrik Zetterberg's got himself a new deal in Detroit (and, at 6 million, is still relatively underpaid as one of the most complete players in hockey, for the record). Anytime I hear someone suggest trading Hemsky, I want to yell at them. The guy is flat out too good for too cheap to even consider such a thing at this point.

Dawgbone: Without a doubt it's their blueline. If Visnovsky was healthy last year the Oilers probably make the playoffs (that being said, a healthy Visnovksy is no guarantee in any season). The Oilers top 4 is the best in the division and top 5 in the league, especially if Souray plays like he did last year. Their bottom 2 are adequate (though Staios is too expensive in to be in the bottom 2), and I think got exposed a bit only because of how bad the forwards were last year. I think this defence is better as a unit than the 05-06 blueline (they don't have Pronger, but they are better at every other spot by a fair margin).

Doogie2k: Clearly, the defence. While there's no Pronger-level elite defenceman here, the top four as a whole stacks up well against a lot of top fours in the League. One of the things Quinn has emphasized in his interviews is the value of the breakout pass, and we've got that in spades on this D, with Lubomir Visnovsky, Tom Gilbert, and Denis Grebeshkov all capable as playmakers. Sheldon Souray's obvious value is both in his power-play cannon and his rough, physical style, in contrast to the other three, but his defensive awareness is underrated, in my opinion. Yeah, he's not the best skater and he's going to get turned inside-out occasionally (aside: nice job of backchecking there, Zednik and Rivet; way to help your man out), but when he doesn't have to try to keep up with a speeding forward, I don't recall seeing him in a bad position very often. The other three, in addition to having good playmaking abilities, are also perfectly capable in the defensive zone: losing Lubo, especially with Gilbert already playing through a bad back for much of the year, really hurt the team's chances at the playoffs last season, and I think having a healthy top four is going to go a long way to improving the situation on both sides of the puck. As for the rest, Steve Staios is getting up there in years, and gets himself into trouble when he tries to do too much, but my biggest issue with him, truthfully, is his salary: he's getting paid way too much money to play the 5D position. Ladislav Smid is young but improving, and should take another step forward this year. Jason Strudwick...eh, I don't get the praise he's been lavished with, but for the 7D position, I'll survive. I'd rather see Theo Peckham play 20 games in the NHL and 50 in the AHL, personally, but I can't gripe too much.

I'm also a believer in Nikolai Khabibulin, and probably the only one around these parts. I understand the objections, but at the same time, I'm not convinced that being 36 in 2009 is the same sort of problem it was in 1999 or 1989, nor am I convinced that putting up bad SV% numbers on some terrible Blackhawks teams is any evidence that he's going to be bad on this team, especially when I've just cited the defence as a potential strength. Besides, we just had an even older fart of a goaltender come off his best season not spent behind Jacques Lemaire's trap. If Khabibulin starts actually stinking out the joint, then I'll join the chorus of howling, but otherwise, I'm confident that he's good enough to keep this rebuilding team afloat.

Lord Bob: Defense is Edmonton's only real strength. As a 1-2-3-4 combination, Souray, Visnovsky, Gilbert and Grebeshkov rate in the league's top five, and our depth, long a question mark, is an asset with the progress of Peckham and Chorney as well as veterans such as Strudwick and Arsene. The blue treaded water in spite of losing the team's All-Star break MVP in Visnovsky, and the youngsters are better this season.

Bruce: Oilers have a few strengths in '09-10. Their coaching staff is one of the most experienced in NHL history and should be a strength, as long as Quinn, Renney and Fleming don't step on each others' toes. Bucky's job is to watch and learn ... and teach.

The top 4 defenders are very strong, and the third pairing ain't bad either. My hope is that Gilbert, Grebeshkov and Smid are improving faster than Visnovsky, Souray and Staios may be deteriorating. For sure it's now a veteran-laden crew, with the seven holdovers having combined for 3114 GP with nobody fewer than 176.

I'm also happy with a first line of Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky, which has been a significant outscorer (+41/-16) when playing as a trio at even strength the last two years. Let's hope the brain trust will put them back together and bloody well leave them together for at least the first 20 games.

I think Oilers' powerplay is a potential strength as well. The personnel are in place; it's time to execute.

Derek: If they work well together and understand their strengths and weaknesses as a duo, the biggest strength for this team is coaching. In Quinn, the team gets a guy that forces star production out of his stars and gets his role players to run through walls for him, but not so much produce. Renney is not a motivator, though he's been able to coax production out of sullen stars and uses his role players in order to maximize effectiveness. Quinn is not a tactical master and likes old-time hockey in a way. Renney is a fantastic tactician that knows how to use matchups and protect his faults. Quinn employs a hard style with a strong forecheck. Renney is a penalty kill wizard. If these two can make this relationship work, the Oilers will have their most well-rounded bench presence since...arguably ever.

Jonathan: While defense is obviously the positional strength of the team this coming season, I'm going to go with ownership. In Daryl Katz, Edmonton has an owner who is committed to the Oilers for the long haul. He's got deep pockets, and it seems like he's also going to be able to force through a new arena which, while arguably not in the city's best interest is certainly in the interest of the team. Over the short term, we've heard some stories about Katz meddling on the hockey side, but over the long haul a stable, deeply-pocketed owner is going to make this a franchise to contend with - because if the current hockey operations department can't get the job done, he'll certainly bring in one who can.

Poll

What are the Oilers' greatest strengths heading into 2009-10?

Defense

115 votes

Coaching

47 votes

Ownership

20 votes

Other (let us know in the comments)

5 votes

187 votes | Poll has closed

Springfield Falcons Quality of Competition Update

Jonathan Willis — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 16:36:41 -0000

More photos » by Jimmy Jeong - AP

8 months ago: Edmonton Oilers defenseman Theo Peckham (49), left, fights with Los Angeles Kings' Brian Boyle (22) during the first period of NHL hockey game in Edmonton on Tuesday, April 7, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Jimmy Jeong)

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As regular readers know, earlier this year I devised a scheme for calculating the quality of competition that players in the AHL were facing. It involved looking at who was on the ice for goal events, and assigning them a rating based on their total points. I did this work manually for the Springfield Falcons - those rankings and the method behind them can be found here.

Gabriel Desjardins of Behind the Net fame has done me one better. He's run my formula with some slight modifications (explained after the jump) and he's done it for the entire AHL. Desjardins was nice enough to send a copy my way, and what follows below is his list, with this summer's additions (Minard, Arsene, Brennan) added in for good measure.

The changes Desjardins made to my formula were as follows:

He used only 5v5 scoring for his player ratings (whereas I had used total scoring)
He added in defensemen as well as forwards
He ran the entire season in one go, whereas I had done it in two attempts
He used a computer, so naturally the human error portion of these rankings drops significantly

I'm not certain that scoring reflects quality for defensemen as well as it does for forwards, but other than that Desjardins' rankings should be improved in quality, and they certainly reflect an improvement in comprehensiveness.

Forwards

Liam Reddox: .309
Tim Sestito: .295
Tyler Spurgeon: .286
*Chris Minard: .283
Ryan Stone: .281
Colin McDonald: .281
Derek Bekar: .279
Guillaume Lefebvre: .278
Ryan Potulny: .270
Vyacheslav Trukhno: .270
Gilbert Brule: .268
Carl Corazzini: .267
Geoff Paukovich: .264
Jordan Eberle: .263
Charles Linglet: .260
Bryan Lerg: .259
Rob Schremp: .253
Ryan O'Marra: .250
Shane Willis: .246
*Kip Brennan: .245

Thoughts:

People who remain confused about Liam Reddox's elevation to the big club should know that this is one of the biggest reasons why. He's a superior player at the AHL level in every way.
The Oilers seem to have acquired a very decent player in Minard, who did a fine job outscoring quality competition last year. We haven't really talked about Minard as a challenger for a roster spot, but it's worth remembering that he's played 35 games for Pittsburgh over the past two seasons (20 last year), and adds some size (6'1", 200lbs). He'll challenge for a role on this team.
I hope Brennan's a way more effective fighter than Guillaume Lefebvre, because everything I've seen indicates that Lefebvre's the superior player.
There are a lot of guys in the mix for fourth line roles, and while Brule seems ordained to get a job he will have to fight off Minard, Stone, Potulny and Reddox in camp. Rob Schremp's in there somewhere too, but probably near the bottom of that list.

Defensemen

Theo Peckham: .286
Taylor Chorney: .279
Mathieu Roy: .275
Cody Wild: .274
Bryan Young: .266
*Dean Arsene: .264
Ryan Constant: .262
Rob Bina: .259
Mike Gabinet: .254
Sebastien Bisaillon: .245

Thoughts:

This is one of the biggest reasons I'm so bullish on Peckham. He's already playing against guys who are close to NHL-calibre, and he brings those other things (size, but more importantly nastiness) that are coveted in defensemen.
Taylor Chorney improves a fair bit by Desjardins' count, which does help explain his struggles last year. Still there isn't much separation between him, Wild and Roy.
I'm hesitant to put Arsene this low in the rankings; it's always a little perilous to compare guys across teams and anecdotal evidence would suggest that he should be in the group right after Peckham.
With the possible exception of the 6'3" Gabinet, I don't really see the bottom three players on this list as AHL'ers.

Defensive Depth: An "Embarrassment of Riches" or Overrated?

Jonathan Willis — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 14:30:08 -0000

More photos » by Aaron J. Latham - AP

Jason Strudwick and Ladislav Smid watch as the woeful Coyotes pot a goal.

Browse more photos »

Oilers' GM Steve Tambellini was recently interviewed by 630 CHED's Dan Tencer, and the following clip caught my notice:

Steve Tambellini: "...That's the strength of our hockey club, and we're weighted to that side right now. I know Pat and Tom and Kelly right now are excited to see these guys healthy and on the ice and see what they look like under this system. You can argue with some areas of our hockey club, but the depth of our D right now with Strudwick and Peckham filling in on the bottom end, and Chorney coming and some of these other kids that are coming - there's good depth there.

Dan Tencer: "I would say it's an embarrasment of riches actually. You've got guys like Theo Peckham and Taylor Chorney who probably are 6 or 7 guys right now - certainly Theo Peckham is a number 7 guy, or capable of being a number 7 guy. You throw Strudwick in, we haven't even talked about Staios... there are 8 or 9 guys who could potentially play NHL games with a lot of teams and not look out of place.

Both, I think, are overrating the Oilers' depth defenders.

I should clarify when I say that, though: I think the Oilers top-four are a definite strength of this hockey club, but after that things are far less clear. Here's how I see the depth chart right now:

Let's have a look at the bottom five players on that list.

Ladislav Smid

A lot depends on how an individual views Ladislav Smid. Many fans view him as top-four ready right now, but I think a view closer to reality is that, as he is, he's a bottom-pairing defenseman. According to Behind the Net, Smid played the sixth-best opposition with the sixth-best linemates among Oilers defensemen. Unlike the top four guys (who ranged between +5.8 and -3.5 in Corsi/60) , Smid was getting buried (-13.4 Corsi/60). His -5 rating was earned. Now, he's also a young guy who brings size and a physical dimension, plus he's getting into those years where he makes a difference, but as it stands he's a third-pairing guy until he shows otherwise.

Ranking: Third-pairing defenseman.

Steve Staios

I don't think Staios has a snowball's chance in hell of covering his cap hit, but I think that's probably covered my perception of his performance. I'm not even sure he shouldn't be above Smid on the depth chart. HockeyAnalysis.com gives us an idea of his performance with different defense partners that I think is illuminating (I've multiplied the numbers by 3 to get a per/60 ratio):

510:27 with Souray: 2.59 GFON/60 - 1.88 GAON/60 = +0.71 +/- per 60
407:18 with Smid: 1.77 GFON/60 - 2.36 GAON/60 = -0.59 +/- per 60
278:48 with Strudwick: 1.08 GFON/60 - 2.80 GAON/60 = -1.72 +/- per 60

I think that's a revealing chart. The Staios/Strudwick pairing was an absolute disaster; one of the enduring mysteries about last season was the sheer volume of positive press that Strudwick got from people connected to the team. To my eye he wasn't overly effective, and the numbers are vicious. Staios/Smid weren't great, but they weren't bad either. And before everybody jumps aboard the Staios/Souray bandwagon, the only reason their numbers are so good is because of an incredible .945 on-ice save percentage when together; their Corsi number was a less than spectacular -72.

Ranking: Third-pairing defenseman.

Jason Strudwick

I suppose I tipped my hand above when I talked about the mystery of the Oilers' love for Jason Strudwick. He lucked out with a nice on-ice save percentage, but he bled shots against all year and made every defensive tandem he was on worse. I thought he was better in his brief cameo as a left wing. His Corsi/60 number (-14.8) was the worst among Oilers' regulars, and he lucked out to some extent with solid on-ice save percentage (.932) and shooting percentage (8.4%) numbers.

He faced soft competition and still struggled to hold his own. I don't mind him as the seldom-used depth defenseman, but I think it's a stretch to say that he's ready for a top-six role. His size and physical willingness are plusses, and they may be enough to get him into the lineup under Pat Quinn.

Ranking: Reserve defenseman.

Theo Peckham

I'm bullish on Peckham's potential, and he was one of the few bright spots on last year's miserable Springfield Falcons. He played far and away the toughest competition, added some offense (19 points in 47 games) and didn't get killed in goals against (a very respectable -7). He's a willing shot-blocker, uses his size, and has no compunction about fighting. That said, I do think he could use another year in the minors. His Corsi/60 rating was atrocious (-21.2) in fifteen NHL games and he struggled a bit with NHL speed.

All of that said, he's a fine option at #8 and not one of the weak links on the depth chart.

Ranking: #7/#8 defenseman.

Taylor Chorney

Taylor Chorney is a prospect whose numbers are way out of line to the scouting reports. He didn't play top opposition, contributed less offense than Peckham (.309 points per game vs. .404 points per game in the AHL), and on top of all that led the Falcons with a -29 rating. The next worst defenseman was Chorney's frequent partner Mathieu Roy, at -20. He's undersized, and was unimpressive in a brief NHL cameo to end the season.

Speaking of that brief NHL cameo, the numbers are probably meaningless but still fun to look at: -67.6 Corsi/60 and 9.66 GAON/60. Chorney isn't a top-pairing defenseman in the AHL, and the dropoff between Peckham and Chorney is incredible.

Ranking: AHL'er.

Final Analysis

This isn't a bad group - guys are slotted in where they belong, for the most part (with spare parts Strudwick and Chorney being the sole players above where they should be) and that's a situation both welcome and surprising given this team's tendencies. However, trading a defenseman without replacing him will seriously test this group's depth - particularly when injuries hit.

Poll

How good is the Oilers' defensive depth?

Great! They can trade a guy and not miss a beat.

57 votes

Fine. They're set, and that's good enough.

100 votes

Poor. They need help, and quickly.

5 votes

162 votes | Poll has closed

Stargazing: The coaching staff takes shape in Dallas

Brad G — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 10:00:19 -0000

Stargazing is a daily assortment of Dallas Stars news, as well as a look at what's happening around the Pacific division and the rest of the NHL. Stargazing will run on Mondays and Thursdays, becoming a daily feature once the preseason begins.

As Brandon said on Tuesday, the hiring of Charlie Huddy brings the completion of the sweeping changes instituted in the wake of the Joe Nieuwendyk hiring. The manifestation of this team expressed in terms of the roster is much the same, too much for the like of some when compared to last year. But the collective Dallas Stars monster has had its brain rewired for the 2009-2010 season.

Stars News and Notes:

Andrew's Stars Page spoke to Marc Crawford about the responsibilities of his new crew:

"Everybody is involved in all the aspects of our coaching staff, but there's an area of expertise for each. Charlie and Andy will be more on the defensive side and Stu will be more on the offensive side," Crawford said. "When it comes to special teams, defensemen will be Charlie's, the goaltender will be Andy's and the forwards will be Stu's. We haven't decided completely on how we'll divvy up the special teams (power play and penalty kill), but we'll all have input on that."

After the jump, more on Huddy, dallasstars.com talks to Toby Petersen, and notes from around the NHL. And who had a better mustache as a player? Charlie Huddy or Dave Tippett?

Mike Heika on Huddy:

Huddy, whose hiring was announced Tuesday by the Stars, has worked with young defensemen in Edmonton, teaching a system that encourages skating and puck movement.

...

Huddy has worked with young defensemen in Edmonton, including Ladislav Smid, Denis Grebeshkov, Tom Gilbert and Theo Peckham. He will also work with young defensemen in Dallas, including Matt Niskanen, Nicklas Grossman, Mark Fistric and Ivan Vishnevskiy.

Skating and puck movement from the Stars defense? We used to have a guy for that.

That's good news, however, for those of us who were frustrated by the Stars penchant for a good reset. A change of possession in favor of the Stars was often followed by a leisurely survey of the ice ahead, and a few backwards passes before they finally made the turn up ice to attack. I found myself in recent years, frequently jealous of the speed with which other teams could transition the other way with the puck. It will be fascinating to see if Huddy and Crawford can manage the inexperience of the defense, while also encouraging this rumored "skating and puck movement."

What else can Huddy bring to the team?

And he has a calm personality that balances Crawford's fiery temper.

I hope it's a "calm personality" like this:

Charlie Huddy vs Tim Coulis - SLASHING - CHEAPSHOT (via nhlfightclub)

Dallasstars.com catches up with Stars player-man Toby Petersen:

Have you played with any of the Stars’ free agent signings before?

Petersen: "I know defenseman Jeff Woywitka. We played together for the Edmonton Roadrunners of the AHL during the lockout year. He is a big, very strong kid and he can probably move mountains in front of the net. Jeff is a great guy though. The best way to describe him would be very jovial person and a great teammate."

Scott Glennie is on Canada's National Junior Team that began camp yesterday. Thanks to Andrew's for the tip on that one.

The official Hockey Canada site has Glennie in their media guide for the camp.

PERSONAL
Son of Don and Cris … Has one brother, Donnie … His brother,
Donnie, played in WHL with Tri-City (2005-06) and Chilliwack (2006-
07) … Favourite NHL player: Alexander Ovechkin … Has been the
Manitoba hit, run and throw champion three times (2002, 2000 and
1999)

Around the NHL:

One time Dallas Star Tepi Numminen is calling it quits after 20 NHL seasons. [Sportingnews.com]
Puck Daddy discusses ads on jerseys, and how you'll learn to love them.
So wait... Now Balsillie CAN bid on the Coyotes?
Brendan Shanahan will return to the Devils for a full season at the ripe old age of 40.
The Rangers were none too pleased with Zherdev's arbitration number, and let him walk.
The Hockey News says the league will miss Roenick's big mouth.

37 days to training camp!