SB Nation - Toni Lydman

What's Next For Chris Butler?

Rafal Ladysz — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 22:12:39 -0000

5 months ago: Montreal Canadiens' Tomas Plekanec fights with Buffalo Sabres' Chris Butler during the second period of an NHL preseason hockey game on Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009 in Montreal. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Paul Chiasson)

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Buffalo Sabres defenseman Chris Butler is on the losing end of the numbers game for five matches and counting. Tyler Myers, Henrik Tallinder, Toni Lydman, Craig Rivet, Andrej Sekera and Steve Montador have been the starting six on Buffalo's blue line while the sophomore tries to find a path back onto the bench. The top four has been solidified throughout the year but Sekera, Montador and Butler have been sweating it out for a position among the remaining two openings.

Buffalo is 3-1-1 in the past five games without Butler and the defense is doing its job rather well. The 23-year-old has his usefulness and flaws and the flaws are having the final say in this healthy-scratch period. A work in progress, his development is revamping but mistakes happen and Butler ran into an abundance of them this season.

After the jump, we'll find out just what type of year it's been for the young defender.

Chris Butler

#34 / Defenseman / Buffalo Sabres

Height: 6-1

Weight: 203

Born: Oct 27, 1986

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Chris Butler	50	1	19	20	-12	18	0	0	0	0	52	1.9

I Like The Sound Of That

First, an examination of the good in Butler's campaign under my catchy header (it is catchy right?). All of the comparisons will be made with the other defenseman instead of the entire team because that's the main focus. I'm not the statistical guru like Dave is, so bear with me please. The easiest thing to realize is that Butler's production trails Myers alone for the defense. For a team that doesn't average many goals each game, offensive input from the point is a terrific asset to behold.

Receiving just under 21 minutes of ice time routinely, Butler again only sits behind Myers in that area and is fifth in powerplay time per game and sixth in shorthanded responsibilities. The fact that he is being trained and thrown into different territories is a splendid sign that he will become a do-it-all type of defenseman. His offensive credentials are satisfying and by far the one part of his game that sets the level for the other areas, that he's struggled in, to reach.

Out of all his assists, 57 per cent (11) have come on the powerplay and a quarterback is a major need for Buffalo because of their lack of success during 5-on-4 and 5-on-3 chances. He moves the puck around impressively for his teammates. The quality of competition Butler faces daily is lessened by just Myers and Tallinder, so don't get too judgemental about his errors because he's being beaten by talented players.

And the quality of his teammates is rated as the sixth worst among the defense. I'll bet you're starting to sympathize with Butler a little aren't you? His assists per 60 minutes are third best and there's plenty more of these statistics at the great site, Behind the net. I won't bore you with all of them, just the more relevant ones.

Now Why Did He Do That?

Ready for the unexciting side of it all? A minus-12 rating isn't an assuring number to have next to the point total; it basically cancels it out. Butler has just one goal and 11 of his 19 assists were secondary (believe me, I counted them off). Secondary helpers don't create much excitement except for the fact that they count equally for fantasy hockey.

His points per 60 minutes total is second from last; unsurprising with the amount of ice time he receives. Buffalo has earned a goal 28 times when he's on the ice and allowed 35 in the same situation for a minus-seven differential. For every sixty-minute span Butler plays, the Sabres allow 2.81 goals, which is the most by far, and score 2.25 times. The differential is last by a good portion as well.

Lastly, Buffalo scores an average of 2.64 goals per every 60 minutes he's not playing and concede 2.22 tallies. When the two are subtracted, his is tied for tops on the team but it's not exactly a section you want to lead in because it indicates that the squad scores more than what they concede without your services.

Butler has encouraging offensive comprehensions but his efforts in his own zone need major refinement. When he uses his body and gets physical, he's a much better player for it. With 45 hits in 50 games, he'd be smart to plant players into the boards time and again.

Chris Butler may be the odd-man out on defense but there's always hope, especially in Buffalo where Lindy Ruff juggles lines like there's no tomorrow. As grueling as the numbers game can be, it's beatable.

Poll

How have you felt about Chris Butler's 2010 campaign?

Back in the saddle again: Pens beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2

Hooks Orpik — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 03:05:36 -0000

More photos » Keith Srakocic - AP

18 days ago: Pittsburgh Penguins' Pascal Dupuis, right, celebrates after scoring on Buffalo Sabres goalie Patrick Lalime in the second period of an NHL hockey game in Pittsburgh, Tuesday, March 2, 2010. (AP Photo/Keith Srakocic)

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Sabres vs Penguins coverage - Sabres vs Penguins recap - Sabres vs Penguins boxscore - Die By The Blade

First game back and the Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres engaged in a potentially important game in terms of possible playoff seeds. Pittsburgh jumped out to the early lead and never looked back, earning two points in the process.

Sergei Gonchar scored the game's first goal on the power play in the first period for Pittsburgh, teeing up a shot from the middle of the blueline that beat Patrick Lalime. The Pens would extend the lead to 2-0 when Pascal Dupuis sent a great cross-ice pass to Ruslan Fedotenko for a nice finish. Buffalo would hang around when Toni Lydman ripped a slapper past a screened Brent Johnson.

In the third period, Tyler Kennedy fed Fedotenko who took a quick shot that beat Lalime. Derek Roy would narrow the margin again to one with a sneaky top shelf goal that the refs didn't quite see at first, but that would be as close as it would get.

First game back after the break, it was a maintenance game for Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (who both recorded assists on separate goals). Crosby played 17:34 and Malkin played 17:48, significantly under their season averages, but on the first night back that's to be expected. As much hockey as they've played lately -- especially Sid -- the Pens are going to have to ease up a little so they keep the batteries charged down the line.
Malkin's now up to a 14 game point streak, a season high amongst all NHL players. Quietly his production has been getting back on track, and if the Pens do add a guy like Alexei Ponikarovsky, that could only be better.....Stay tuned....
In his first game as a Penguin, Jordan Leopold didn't look terribly out of place: 1 takeaway and 4 blocked shots in 18:12 of work. Leopold was a -1 and did look a little out of place at times, but that's naturally to be expected for a first game in a new system with all new teammates.
It was a new beginning for Maxime Talbot too. Talbot missed 10 of the last 11 games with a groin injury, and has been plagued all season with injuries. Though he only skated 12:56 and was a -1, Superstar was credited with 5 hits, a takeaway and drew a penalty. More importantly, he skated hard and with a purpose, looking more like himself than in recent memory.
Mike Rupp, who always has a high hit per ice-time ratio, rocked 4 Sabres in 7:54 and also convincingly dropped Paul Gaustad. Really looked like the big guy was just itching to get back in the action.
Brent Johnson got the nod in net, and as usual, he looked steady. Wasn't much he could do on either goal against and Johnny was consistent in making the stops when he could. A typically strong performance for the vet.

Tomorrow's 3 PM trade deadline is hanging over us all, and reports the Penguins have struck a deal to acquire Alexei Ponikarovsky broke during the course of the game. Conceivably, this is all that Pittsburgh will do from here on out, but never say never when Ray Shero is wheeling and dealing. Keep it tuned to Pensburgh for all the latest.

Sabres Try to Avoid Olympic Hangover

David Oleksy — Tue, 02 Mar 2010 16:00:32 -0000

Way back in the summer we wondered what effect the Olympics would play in the NHL season, especially for those that participated in the games. The Sabres had five players that took part in the games and two of those players, Toni Lydman and Jochen Hecht also took part in the 2006 Olympics.

I started to wonder how those players played before and after the Olympics back in 2006 in effort to predict how they might fare this season. Below I will take a look at how those players played four seasons ago,

Jochen Hecht

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Before	54	15	15	30
After	10	3	9	12

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Jochen Hecht	60	13	16	29	5	29	1	0	1	0	174	7.5

Toni Lydman

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Before	50	1	11	12	14
After	25	0	5	5	-5

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Toni Lydman	45	1	10	11	2	24	0	0	0	0	35	2.9

It will be interesting to see how the final 22 games play out for the two players I listed above. Both players have similar stats this season in comparison to their stats in the 2005-2006 season. Jochen Hecht had decent numbers after the tournament but he also missed time due to injury. Toni Lydman appeared to struggle after winning the silver medal with Finland in 2006.

In 2006 the Sabres had three Olympians in addition to Hecht and Lydman. None of those players remain on the team but I thought it would be fun to look at their before and after stats anyway. Most players showed almost no effect from their participation.

Teppo Numminen

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Before	50	0	30	30	-3
After	20	2	8	10	+9

Maxim Afinogenov

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Before	51	14	28	42	+6
After	26	8	23	31	0

Chris Drury

	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-
Before	55	17	25	42	-10
After	26	13	12	25	-1

The effect is minimal but it looks like some players gained some momentum. It's not fair to compare Sekera and Tallinder to the players I have listed but overall I think we can expect them to at least maintain their current level of play.

As for Sekera I think he gained some valuable experience and should be in the lineup for the Sabres down the stretch. Sekera played against some of the best players in the world and he was effective for the surprising Slovaks. Sekera was the only Sabres player that actually scored a goal in Vancouver.

There are 22 games left for the Sabres to overtake the Ottawa Senators and regain the division lead. The Sabres will need everyone to step up and the players who played in Vancouver will be a key part of this squad down the stretch.

2010 Winter Olympic Hockey: Slovakia vs. Finland Open Thread

Jim Schmiedeberg — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 02:00:29 -0000

Slovakia and Finland facing off tonight for the Bronze, here is your open thread for those of you watching the game

Slovakia vs. Finland

Bronze Medal Game

Saturday 2-27 10:00 PM EST

MSNBC (In HD where available)

Make sure you check in all day tomorrow, we will have all kinds of stuff tomorrow to get you fired up for the big USA-Canada game.

Any Of Nine NHL Teams Could Have An Olympic Medalist Of Every Mint

Robert L — Fri, 26 Feb 2010 06:28:58 -0000

As hockey fan's gazes are firmly set on tonight's semi-final games at the 2010 Vancouver Olympics, it is curious to note that eight different NHL teams have representation from at least three finalist countries.

Paring down the tableau of NHL team player representation by country from this nhl.com link, one can see that eight NHL clubs have a shot at having a gold, silver and bronze medalist within their ranks come Sunday night's gold medal game.

As it stands, the rosters of Team Canada, Finland, Slovakia and USA comprise a total of 77 NHL players.

The Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning all have players on three country's rosters. The worse case scenario for all seven of these teams is that they will have no less than two each.

It surely must be Vancouver Canucks' year, as there is no such mystery in terms of their medals chances. The Canucks have representation on all four surviving Olympics teams and three of those are destined to have medals hung from their necks come Sunday. Oddly, none will be named Sedin.

The Canucks are represented by Roberto Luongo (Canada), Ryan Kesler (USA), Sami Salo (Finland) and Pavol Demitra (Slovakia). Come the Canucks next home game, one of these four will be a spectator to an ice ceremony honouring the team's Olympic medalists. As luck, both good and bad, would have it, Vancouver are on an NHL record length road trip (14 games) thanks to the city hosting the Olympic games. With six road games left to play out, that Canuck ceremony isn't slated until March 14, against the Calgary Flames.

Rather than listing countries in order of potential gold, silver and bronze finishes, let's take an odd man out approach.

If Finland finishes fourth:

Boston, Los Angeles and Chicago will have a medalist of every mint.

Boston are represented by Patrice Bergeron (Canada), Zdeno Chara and Miroslav Satan (Slovakia) and Tim Thomas (USA)

Los Angeles are represented by Drew Doughty (Canada), Michal Handzus (Slovakia), Jack Johnson, Jonathan Quick and Dustin Brown (USA)

Chicago are represented by Marian Hossa and Tomas Kopecky (Slovakia), Patrick Kane (USA) and Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and Jonathan Toews (Canada)

If Slovakia finishes fourth:

Anaheim and Carolina will have a medalist of every mint.

Anaheim are represented by Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne (Finland), Scott Niedermayer, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf (Canada), Bobby Ryan and Ryan Whitney (USA)

Carolina are represented by Tim Gleason (USA), Joni Pitkanen and Tuomo Ruutu (Finland) and Eric Staal (Canada)

If Canada finishes fourth:

Buffalo, Tampa Bay and the Rangers will have a medalist of every mint.

Buffalo are represented by Toni Lydman (Finland), Ryan Miller (USA) and Andrej Sekera (Slovakia)

Tampa Bay are represented by Ryan Malone (USA), Andrej Meszaros (Slovakia) and Antero Niittymaki (Finland)

The Rangers are respresented by Chris Drury and Ryan Callahan (USA), Ollie Jokinen (Finland) and Marian Gaborik (Slovakia)

If the United States finishes fourth:

Only the Canucks (Oh, the irony!) will have a medalist of every mint.

In other Canadian hockey cities, only the Calgary Flames are guaranteed a medalist among Jarome Iginla (Canada) and Miikka Kiprusoff and Niklas Hagman (Finland)

Edmonton Oliers hopes rest with Lubomir Visnovsky (Slovakia), Ottawa Senators have Jarkko Ruutu (Finland) and Toronto Maple Leafs have Phil Kessel (USA).

In Montreal, Canadiens fans are Canadian hockey fans, and although Habs faithful wish nothing but the best for Slovakian goaltender Jaroslav Halak, the cheering will almost entirely for the Canada side.

BREAKING: Santa is from Finland

Quisp — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 22:12:26 -0000

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According to the undisputed hub of all human understanding, Wikipedia, "Finland is regarded as the home of Saint Nicholas or Santa Claus, living in the northern Lapland region." Wikipedia also reveals Santa's actual address:

Santa Claus

Santa Claus Village

FIN-96930

Arctic Circle, Finland

This is supposed to be the third in my ad hoc "series" of primers on the countries I don't know anything about. But, frankly, I'm too disoriented by this whole Santa of Finland thing to be able to give Finland its due. But what do they care? They have Santa.

Here's some Finnish tidbits I turned up [everything from Wikipedia] before the brain freeze, and a few things I actually knew:

More Santa: apparently, the original reports of Santa, dating back several hundred years, noted that he tended to scare the children, mostly because of his habit of demanding presents as opposed to giving them. Also, he may have been all or part goat.
Finland is expanding. Literally. Turns out there's this thing called "post glacial rebound," which means that the old Ice Age ice was so heavy that it shoved down the land underneath, and so, now freed from the glacier, Finland is literally poking a little bit more out of the sea every day. Finland gets 2.7 square miles bigger every year.
Now, about those glaciers: "All terrestrial life in Finland was completely wiped out during the last ice age that ended some 10,000 years ago." I like that Wikipedia uses the phrase all terrestrial life.
Seventeen years ago, there was this great 60 Minutes segment on the Finnish character or psychology or whatever you want to call it. I never forgot the segment or its punchline (which I won't give away). I was thrilled to find it on youtube:
Jari Kurri is the most famous Finnish hockey player. Teemu Selanne the biggest current star. Finnish ex-Kings include the triple threat of Olli Jokinen, Aki Berg and Lauri Tukonen.
The national sport of Finland is Pesäpallo. Pesapallo was invented around 1920 and is based on American baseball, with some interesting differences. There is no catcher. The pitcher stands at home plate and throws the ball...straight up in the air. When it comes down, the batter attempts to hit it, which it turns out is not hard. The pitch is a strike if it bounces on home plate. If the batter hits the ball, he runs to first base, which is to the left, not the right. Second base is where first base should be, so the runner would advance by zig-zagging across the field (where the pitchers mound would be if there were such a thing). Third base is up the ~~third base line~~ first base line behind first base. If the batter hits the ball out of the park, what we would call a home-run, it is a strike. But if the batter hits the ball and it bounces within the field of play, he must run to first base. But only If he has two strikes against him. If he has zero or one strike against him, he has the option of staying right where he is. What else? Oh, yeah: if a fielder catches a fly ball or a line drive, it is not an out. It's a haava, which means wound. A haava is described, somewhat ambiguously, as being "somewhere between an out and a score." When a haava occurs, all players on the batting team who are not on base or at-bat "return" to home-plate. I don't know where they were prior. They are now "wounded" and cannot become "unwounded" until two runs are scored. A home run is scored if a player reaches, what else, third base before the ball arrives. A home-run counts as a point. The player who scored the home-run has the option of staying at third base and trying to score again. Somehow. Oh, and remember I said the batter has the option of staying right where he is after hitting the ball? With two strikes, he also has the option of just taking off after the pitch is released (straight up, remember) without making an attempt at hitting the ball at all. Sort of like stealing first, I guess. The pitcher, who is also the catcher really, has to wait for the ball to bounce on the plate before he can attempt to throw the batter out. Unless the pitch misses the plate, in which case it is a ball. Which is also a walk, because a walk is one ball, not four. Three strikes and you're out. But since it's virtually impossible to swing and miss, strikes are mostly foul balls, which, as I said, may well be home runs. Other than that, it's exactly like baseball. Or Fizzbin:

The ratio of the population of Finland to current NHL players from Finland is 156,258:1. That is the second lowest ratio, behind Canada.

The Olympics - Group C is for Cushy

Scott Reynolds — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 14:59:34 -0000

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This week I've been previewing the Olympics and today the tournament arrives! I'm excited for the start of the tournament and today seems to be the tournament's official "Day to Run Up the Score." The most competitive game of the day will feature the Americans and the Swiss. I expect the Swiss to come out with a rather passive "play for the tie" style which some might compare to Jacques Lemaire's New Jersey Devils but is probably more akin to Jacques Lemaire's expansion Minnesota Wild teams. Same system, inferior players, fewer wins. But not no wins. They'll be waiting to capitalize on any mistakes the Americans make and counting on Jonas Hiller to make any lead stand up. It's not the easiest opening test for the U.S and any regulation win should be considered acceptable. Russia takes on Latvia in Group B in their one opportunity to put up a big goal differential and maintain a realistic hope for first overall. A win today is good, but not true success. They'll likely be looking for, at minimum, a five-goal victory. Canada gets the same opportunity in Group A with a game against Norway. Again, anything less than a five-goal margin should probably be considered a failure as the teams jockey for positions in the next round. A loss by either club would be nothing less than devastating... and kind of hilarious.

Why do these teams need to score as much as possible? I've looked at the tournament format earlier this week and discussed the fact that goal differential is the tiebreaker in the very likely event that teams end the Group stage with an equal number of points. There's no small difference between being seeded first compared to second or third and the team with the best chance to come out on top in goal differential - and therefore the standings - is probably one of the two big names out of Group C, which I'll be previewing today. While Group A and Group B only have one true minnow each, Group C is comprised of Sweden, Finland, Belarus and Germany: two minnows and two opportunities for the Swedes and Finns to really run up the score and distance themselves from the Canadians and Russians in terms of goal differential. It's an oddity that the teams seeded third (Sweden) and fourth (Finland) end up with the best schedule for this tournament but one that I'm sure both teams will glady accept. Now watch them screw it up by having their own game go to overtime. After the jump we'll take a closer look at each of the teams in the tournament's cushiest (and that doesn't mean "like Africa" in case any of you biblical aficianodos were confused) group: Belarus, Germany, Finland and Sweden.

Team - Belarus
Predicted Finish - 11th after Group stage, eliminated in qualification round.

These guys are just ranked way too high by the IIHF. They're a nation on the rise! All the way up to 8th in the IIHF rankings and some appearances in the World Junior tournaments that don't have double-digit scorelines (although they'll be spending another year on the outside of the big tournament next Christmas). They're improving but my brain, perhaps stuck in 1996, can't fathom that these guys are better than the Germans let alone the Slovaks. The team is led by its young trio of Mikahil Grabovski and the infamous Kostitsyn brothers. Or at least they would be if Grabovski and Andrei Kostitsyn weren't injured and unable to play in the tournament. That leaves Sergei Kostitsyn as the go-to-guy for offence. To put it into perspective, former NHLer Konstantin Koltsov might be their next best offensive player and he has a total of 39 points in his last 88 KHL games. The Belarussians are carrying five forwards from Dynamo Minsk of the KHL and the guys that score the most among them are Andrei Mikhalev with 14 points in 53 games and recent trade acquisition, 39-year-old Oleg Antonenko with 11 points in 21 games. I guess the five of them might have some chemistry but... these guys are in trouble.

The defense is anchored by recent Avalanche healthy scratch Ruslan Salei. His biggest contribution could be some of that Avalanche mojo. Just like the Avs, these guys are going to need unfathomably stupid and consistent luck in order to have success. The defence is likely worse than Latvia's which, let's face it, means your team is in really big trouble. Whereas the forwards seem to be taken mostly from Dynamo Minsk, the defence is largely made up of guys playing with Shakhter Soligorsk which sounds a lot like another team in the KHL but is actually a team in the Belarussian league that was created to be a farm team for Minsk. So four of the defenders on this team can't make a KHL team that's currently 17-29-7. Uh o-oh-Oh wait! apparently they all got replaced at the last second. It turns out the four worst players are all "injured"? I don't know how you get away with that but whatever. The Belarussians must be better off for letting these guys go.

The three other defenders originally named are second and third pairing guys on KHL teams and none of them looks like a difference-maker in the league. As for the replacement players, one is a hack AHL defender, another is in-and-out of the aforementioned 17-29-7 KHL squad and the last two play on a different team in the Belarussian league. So yeah. Not much of an improvement. The goaltending tandem of Mezin and Koval have put up identical save percentages of .903 for Minsk so far this year but Mezin is the starter. He's also the guy that beat Sweden eight years ago. I imagine they start him for mojo's sake. Latvia was basically an average KHL team joining the tournament. These guys are a notch below that.

Team - Germany
Predicted Finish - 9th after Group stage, eliminated in qualification round.

Hey, do you remember when the German team was picked as the eighth team for the 1996 World Cup of Hockey. They were a rising hockey nation at the time and even managed to beat the Czechs 7-1 (Hahahahahaha) to get into the playoff round and justify their appearance in the tournament. I was 13 years old at the time and I've kind of always thought of the Germans in that same way ever since. After a while I could accept that the Swiss had passed them but I can't accept that they've fallen to 12th in the IIHF rankings. And they're a lot closer to 13th place Denmark than they are to 11th place Norway. The World Cup was over a decade ago and these guys, apparently, just aren't what they used to be.

Or maybe they're just run by idiots. Originally both Jochen Hecht and Christoph Schubert were left off the German squad. Before naming the team Krupp "reasoned" that "if a player over there [in North America] plays a marginal role and gets only a little ice time, it's absolutely possible that we will take a player [to the Olympics] who plays a bigger role in Germany." My God. Here's what Lindy Ruff had to say about the omission: "I had a conversation with Uwe and Uwe told me he didn't like the way Jochen played at the World Championships [last spring in Switzerland]," Ruff said. "Uwe may be using that as a motivational tool. Coaches do strange things." Honestly, that conversation would have been hilarious to listen in on: "Hey Uwe, it's Lindy Ruff here, just wanted to let you know that you are absolutely a fucking moron. Anyway, call me back if you want to talk more. Hope you're well. Lindy." Whatever Ruff said, it was apparently convincing since Uwe ended up adding Hecht to the team in late January along with Kai Hospelt and Oiler alum Sven Butenschon. They replaced the trio of Philip Gogulla, Alexander Barta and Jason Holland. I was pretty sure that you could only add a replacement in case of injury and Gogulla just played for the Portland Pirates last night so I'm not sure how they made these changes but the fact is that they did and now Hopelt, Butenschon and Hecht are in Vancouver. Christoph Schubert is not. I guess you can afford to leave NHL players at home when you've got guys like Korbinian Holzer and Jakub Ficenec manning the blueline.

Krupp's stupidity aside (you know who I want as my bench coach? The guy who didn't think Jochen Hecht should be on the team! Yeah, that'll turn out just great!) the Germans have some pretty good players on this squad. The defence will be anchored by Christian Ehrhoff who has been destroying the soft competition in Vancouver this year but has a history of taking on the toughs with reasonable success in San Jose. In 2007-08 he lead Sharks' defenders in quality of competition and was in the middle of the pack in terms of zone-start ratio. He finished that season as a plus player at EV and with the second best Corsi rating among Sharks' defenders (+7.82/60). I imagine he'll probably be asked to take on that kind of role in this tournament (as opposed to killing the young and the infirm taking OZ draws with the Sedins OZ draws... now that's a nice gig). Joining Ehrhoff on the blueline is Panthers' defender Dennis Seidenberg, the only other defender playing top four minutes in the NHL. His results look like that of a Panthers defender. His Corsi is bad (-11.21/60) and he's taken a lot more defensive than offensive zone faceoffs (230 OZ 322 DZ). This is true of literally every Panthers defender. No one is playing soft minutes on D in terms of zone-starts (the best faceoff ratio is 140 OZ and 168 DZ for 18-year-old rookie Dmitri Kulikov) and no one is moving the puck the right way consistently (the best Corsi is Bryan McCabe's -8.95/60; remember when that guy was on the Canadian Olympic team! I bet the Canadians won that year!). The Panthers suck and they're not substantially better with Seidenberg out there than they are with anybody else. On the bright side, playing with Germany in this tournament won't feel too abnormal for Seidenberg. He'll be playing better teams, always starting in his own zone and he'll stay there for the majority of his shifts.

Next on the depth chart is Alexander Sulzer who has played 19 games for the Predators this season and will likely join former Oiler Sven Butenschon to make up the team's second pairing. Beyond that you have four guys that haven't played anywhere but German leagues for the last five years. Chris Schmidt is a Candian-born player with 10 NHL games to his name in 2001-02 with the Kings. Korbinian Holzer was a fourth round pick of the Leafs in 2006 but still hasn't come over from Germany. Michael Bakos and Jakub Ficenec are veterans of the German national squad. These four guys are in way, way over their heads.

Like the defenders, the forwards actually have some nice things. In addition to Hecht, who plays a very effective game on the Sabres shut-down line (also known as "a marginal role"), the Germans have Marco Sturm and Marcel Goc. Goc has been given the "Kyle Brodziak" role this year in Nashville, taking on the easier competition but always starting in the defensive zone (119 OZ draws 288 DZ draws). Like Seidenberg, he should feel right at home, you know, except for the easier competition part. Sturm, meanwhile, was injured for most of 2008-09 but has come back strong in 2009-10 with the Bruins. He'll probably be put on a line with Jochen Hecht so that Uwe Krupp can decide to bench them for the entire third period of every game due to "lack of effort" or "failure to shave sideburns." That way he can rely more heavily on the rest of the team, guys who really want to be there and play out their careers in the German league. That should end well.

Finally, the goaltending. I would assume they're going to start Thomas Greiss who has a stellar .920 save percentage so far this season (want an argument that Nabokov's numbers are more impressive than they seem, there you go) and a Jeff-Delauriers-like career in every other season (AHL seasons of .907, .892 and .912). I expect Thomas Greiss to use these Olympics to shove it up the backsides of his critics once and for all as to his ability to be an NHL starter.

Team - Finland
Predicted Finish - 4th after Group stage, loss in Bronze medal game.

The Finns are a legitimately good club but I expect them to lose to the Swedes in the opening round. I acyually have them losing to the Swedes twice, once in the Group stage and then again in the semifinals. If that should happen - especially with the 2006 loss to Sweden in the gold medal game top of mind - there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth both in Finland and here at the Copper and Blue. Derek will not be happy. Is it a good bet that the Swedes beat them twice? I'd say it's the most likely outcome, but not by a wide margin. Even if the Swedes are a 60% chance to win each game, they've only got a 36% chance at winning both games. When we get the tournament down to the good teams, a bounce here or there can decide the outcome because there's just not enough separation on skill alone.

One guy that can help make the bounces happen is Miikka Kiprusoff who's having a tremendous bounce-back season after two years in the wilderness. His EV save percentage is tied for fourth overall at .933 this season and he's been pretty consistently good on the PK over the last several years (.888 so far this season); Kiprusoff could well steal a game or two. Unfortunately for the Finns, all of the good teams have fantastic goaltending and what's true of Kiprusoff (at least the part about the ability to steal games) is also true of Brodeur, Miller, Vokoun, Halak, Hiller, Nabokov, Lundqvist and Greiss (Backsides!). If the tournament had some sort of rule where you had to start a different goalie for every game the Finns would have a huge advantage over the field, but goaltending is one position where really good depth really isn't important.

Unlike most of the other European teams, the Finns are only carrying seven defenders. The top two guys are Joni Pitkanen and Kimmo Timonen. With the arrival of Chris Pronger in Philadelphia Timonen has been relegated to a second pairing role but he's still playing huge minutes. In 2008-09 he was the clear go-to-guy in Phily and performed admirably, earning a +9 at 5-on-5 while lining up against the best the opposition had to offer. Pitkanen, meanwhile, has led the Hurricanes in EV TOI for the last two seasons. This season he leads the entire NHL in EV TOI and still finds time to contribute on both special teams. He's playing reasonably tough minutes (how can they be avoided when you play that much) but isn't being consistently run at the opposition's best. It's good that those two are accustomed to big minutes because they're going to be asked to provide them here. Pitkanen and Timonen are also two of the three defenders that are used a lot on the PK in the NHL. Despite these two being the class of the Finnish defence, there's some chance that they end up on different pairings. Both shoot left so it's not ideal to pair them together and pulling them apart would also serve to balance out the defence which starts to get thin pretty quick. The other player that can be relied on is Sami Salo who has played in a shut-down role for the Canucks this year and is the only other defender used for significant minutes on the PK. He's a righty (the only one of the team's defenders who is) and knows what to expect when playing the best. His regular partner, Willie Mitchell, doesn't have much in the way of offence so it might be refreshing for him to have a chance with one of Timonen or Pitkanen.

Unfortunately, with Salo, the really solid players on the back end have all been covered. Toni Lydman has played a shut-down role in the past but his responsibilities have decreased in Buffalo this season after he was ineffective in a shut-down role a year ago. He's done well in the more sheltered role but will be asked to step into more responsibility with this Finnish squad here. And it might be much more. Lasse Kukkonen is having a fine season with Avangard of the KHL, playing over 18 minutes per game and chipping in some offence to go with a +11 rating. On the other hand, his last two years with the Flyers were very disappointing. He played in a sheltered role and got outshot consistently so unless he's taken a big step in Russia, he's probably going to get exposed. Sami Lepisto has been a bottom pairing guy in Phoenix this year with plenty of offensive zone starts. It's a sheltered role, but at least he's outshooting (+7.38 per game) so it's at least possible that he doesn't drown. And that brings us to Janne Niskala who has played in Sweden, Switzerland, the AHL and the NHL over the last four years. In 2008-09 he put up 44 points in 80 games for Milwaukee of the AHL, so he's got some offence but he's pretty small and has only played six NHL games so far in his career. Usually, if you have that kind of offence but don't make the NHL, there are some defensive kinks. So that's what you get with Finland on D. Like Russia, they have three big defenders but unlike Russia the drop-off to the next set is huge. I'd take any one of those bottom five Russians as my #4 on this club.

At forward the Finns have a solid group. Mikko Koivu will lead the charge on a "power-v-power" line that can take all comers, likely with Jere Lehtinen and Antti Miettinen who are sometimes used in that manner with Dallas and Minnesota respectively. That would leave Olli Jokinen to play against the "second" group which on most of the good clubs (Sweden, Canada, Russia) is a lot better than Olli Jokinen. The best help left likely comes in the form of Tuomo Ruutu, who takes second toughs for Carolina and leads the team in Corsi (+10.86/60) despite more DZ than OZ starts. Valtteri Filppula could end up on the other flank to form a decent second line that will likely be second best on most nights but not to the point of being scary for Finnish supporters. That should provide some shelter for the remaining combo of Teemu Selanne and Saku Koivu who will need to do a better job of taking advantage for Finland than they've done so far this year in Anaheim. Selanne in particular has struggled with injury and ineffectiveness. When the two are healthy they've played together quite a lot, yet Koivu is a +9 with a +2.07/60 Corsi while Selanne is a -5 with a -9.05 Corsi. That doesn't say very nice things about Selanne. He'll need to be better for Finland to have a chance.

After that you've get Immonen, Peltonen, Jarkko Ruutu and Niko Kapanen. Not a quality "Olympic level" player to be found in that group which likely means the Finns will be playing a three-line game when they can. If they can take top spot in Group C and get the extra day of rest it will go a long way in helping them get through to the medal round. On talent, I have this team at sixth but I think their placement in Group C gives them a better chance than the Czechs or Americans at an extra day off and a shot in the semifinal.

Team - Sweden
Predicted Finish - 1st after Group stage, Silver medal.

The Swedes are good. Better than Finland by a large enough margin that they should be able to take this group and the number one seed going into the playoff round. Anything less should be considered a disappointment. The team is filled with elite talent up front. The Red Wings have had their problems this season but Henrik Zetterberg is not one of them. He is once again the Wings leader among forwards in quality of competition and he is once again outshooting (Corsi of +17.01/60) and outscoring (5v5 +3) all comers. Last year those results were even better and part of that was due to lining up with Johan Franzen every game. With Franzen taking the place of the injured (and less effective) Tomas Holmstrom those two will likely be reunited and form the nucleus of one of Sweden's top lines. The second top line belongs to the Sedin twins who will be playing in the very familiar Vancouver setting with a very familiar role: piss-cutting. The Sedins have "broken out" this season largely because of Alain Vigneault's genius bush-sitting where he protects them as though they're rookies. And then they kill people. The three most favourable zone starts among forwards on the Canucks belong to the Sedins and Alex Burrows and they're not facing top competition either. The Olympics will see a large increase in the level of their opponents but they've showed in the past that they can handle that just fine. The next Swedish pairing (their third top line) could be made up of Backstrom (you know, the NHL's 4th leading scorer) and Daniel Alfredsson, two more guys used to taking on the best in the world on a nightly basis and coming out ahead. That leaves Sammy Pahlsson to anchor a fourth "checking" unit that will be responsible only to not get scored on. It seems logical to play him alongside fellow tough-minutes stalwart Loui Eriksson (that might be an exaggeration, but he's been paired with Richards in Dallas and he's definitely in the top six Stars' forwards). With those four pairs in place the Swedes are then free to sprinkle in Mattias Weinhandl (Sedins? he's the KHL's fourth leading scorer), Fredrik Modin (Pahlsson? they play together in Columbus), Patric Hornqvist (Backstrom? someone needs to take Hornqvist) and Peter Forsberg (Zetterberg? Forsberg has 20 points in 17 SEL games and the dude basically took two years off) where they fit best. That is just a very deep group of forwards. They stack up well against the Canadians and Russians, especially if they go with the "pairs" system and don't leave one line particularly exposed.

The defence is anchored by none other than Nicklas Lidstrom. The six-time, six-time, six-time, six-time, six-time, six-time WCW cham... Norris trophy winner is dominating yet again this year. With Detroit on the outside of the playoff picture there has been some talk of Lidstrom's decline but I just don't see it. He's again the far and away leader in quality of competition on the Wings defence and leads the defence in both outshooting (+16.07/60) and outscoring (+16 at 5v5 or +0.90/60). There are 13 defenders in the NHL outscoring at a better rate (only two are playing in the Olympics, Christian Ehrhoff and Sami Salo) and there are only two outshooting at a better rate (Duncan Keith and Blackhawk Jordan Hendry who has played 22 games worth of sheltered minutes for the Blackhawks). If this is a decline it's not very steep.

After Lidstrom there are seven more guys that all shoot left. They took eight defenders to the games and they all have a left-handed shot. Not the end of the world, but a bit odd. There's also a significant drop-off in play, but only because Lidstrom is so good. Douglas Murray is playing the tough minutes in San Jose with great success, as is Matthias Ohlund in Tampa Bay. Those two could be put together to form a great shut-down pairing behind Lidstrom and teammate Niklas Kronwall. Tobias Enstrom has been getting second pairing duty so far this season in Atlanta and has done well. He provides a good amount of offence and would form a nice third pairing with new teammate Johnny Oduya. That leaves Buffalo second-pair man Henrik Tallinder and Swedish veteran Magnus Johansson for the fourth pairing which is still decent but shouldn't see too much ice-time. Johansson hasn't made it in the NHL but so far this year has 44 points in 45 games in the SEL and last year had 33 points in 53 KHL games. He's on the smaller side, but a pairing with Tallinder should hopefully help to overcome some of his deficiencies. If these two struggle against some of the better teams in the tournament, the Swedes could always get down to three pairs and perhaps move Tallinder up if someone else is having trouble. The defence is not as strong as Canada's but compares well to everyone else and should be able to hang with any group of forwards in the tournament.

The team is backstopped by Henrik Lundqvist, and the Swedes really have no second option. If there was one guy the Swedes were hoping would stay healthy, it's him. While the Finns lack depth everywhere but in goal, the Swedes only depth issue is between the pipes. Somehow, it seems that the Swedes have the better chance. People talk about how much goaltending matters in this tournament but honestly, on skill alone, all the top guys are pretty even. The battle for goaltending supremacy is a hotness contest.

The Swedes have a formidable roster and I would put their chances on par with those of Canada and Russia. They might even have better odds than either of those two since it's likely the Swedes will only need to play one of them in the final so long as they take care of business by crushing the Germans and Belarussians while merely defeating the Finns. The Canadians and Russians will instead likely need to play one another in the semis with the winner getting the Swedes in the final. I'd take either the Canadians or Russians in a one-game playoff with Sweden but if you asked me to pick one team to make the gold medal game it would be the Swedes. And being in the game is the only way to win it.

Die By The Blade Doghouse: February 4, 2010

Rafal Ladysz — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 16:10:37 -0000

More photos » Jonathan Hayward - AP

about 1 month ago: Buffalo Sabres coach Lindy Ruff argues a penalty against Sabres' Paul Gaustad during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Vancouver Canucks on Monday, Jan. 25, 2010, in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jonathan Hayward)

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In our second published installment regarding the doghouse, more people are nominated to potentially earn a stay in the infamous place that served as motivation for previously chosen players. For a game or two, Chris Butler, Adam Mair, Derek Roy and, to a certain length, Steve Montador, became better performers once their stays ended. Only this time, we will take a gander elsewhere for a few choices.

The first candidate is yours truly and I'll fill everyone in with the reason. I left yesterday's game thread while Buffalo was trailing 2-0 and later checked the boxscore to see that the Sabres had evened up the match with two goals in less than a minute. I returned to the thread and a few followers suggested I stay out because of how well the group performed upon my exit. I promised them that if Ottawa won in regulation, I'd put myself in the doghouse and surely enough Daniel Alfredsson made sure of that with a late game-winner. My fate is in your hands. Be merciful.

Up next is Lindy Ruff for throwing out the fourth line in the final minute of regulation against Alfredsson's unit. I don't deny the coach's smarts behind the bench but this was a head scratching moment.

Third, we have Andrej Sekera who got carried away (probably because of the excitement from his goal earlier) and forgot about his defensive responsibilities on two occasions. As a result, Ottawa opened the scoring because of his miscue and later the Senators captain had a tap-in at the side of the net to swipe away two points from Buffalo. Because of his goal, I'll place an option with the fourth line if some would rather blame the whole group as opposed to singling out Sekera.

Lastly, Toni Lydman's giveaway down low in the second period led to Jason Spezza's first goal. Leave your votes in the poll below and if I missed anyone, feel free to let out your frustrations in the comments. To show what a good sport I am, I will begin by voting myself in the doghouse as promised.

Poll

Who should be in the doghouse in your opinion?

Rafal Ladysz

19 votes

Lindy Ruff

30 votes

Andrej Sekera

22 votes

The Fourth Line

24 votes

Toni Lydman

20 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

Die By the Blade Doghouse: January 28, 2010

Rafal Ladysz — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 18:16:21 -0000

More photos » CHRIS YOUNG - AP

3 months ago: Toronto Maple Leafs Jamal Mayers, right, fights with Buffalo Sabres' Steve Montador during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Toronto on Monday, Nov. 30, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Chris Young)

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What started out as a simple joke has transformed into a superstition for the Buffalo Sabres which is showing shocking results. I've begun calling players out during game threads for their lousy efforts in previous matches and it seems to have inexplicably brought about improvements shortly afterwards. Three individuals have been singled out and they've all answered their criticism.

With such a success rate, it's only reasonable that I continue in hopes of stretching this streak. Chris Butler was the first to be called out two weeks ago in Atlanta because of ill-advised penalties and giveaways. Since then, he's scored his first goal, added two assists and kept an even plus-minus rating in seven games.

The second example is Adam Mair who I suggested be scratched after his showing in San Jose last weekend. Mind you, the gritty forward had no goals up to that point and since my remarks has scored twice in as many games. And lastly, Derek Roy was on my radar for the wrong reasons in Vancouver on Monday. He registered an assist yesterday on Mair's goal, Buffalo's only tally.

Our fourth choice is between Steve Montador and Toni Lydman who were healthy scratches yesterday. As the fourth entry into the Die By the Blade doghouse, I select Montador because of his minus-five rating in the last two contests and awful misplays offensively and defensively.

Plus, Buffalo's next match is tomorrow against the Boston Bruins, Montador's former team. He scored a goal against another of his ex-clubs in the Anaheim Ducks during the Sabres' road trip. If he's back in the line-up, I like his chances of getting back in Lindy Ruff's good graces.

Poll

Who should be in the doghouse in your opinion?

Steve Montador

105 votes

Toni Lydman

50 votes

Other

38 votes

193 votes | Poll has closed

Canucks 3 Sabres 2: Controversy Surrounds Sabres West Coast Finale

David Oleksy — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:06:22 -0000

More photos » Jonathan Hayward - AP

about 1 month ago: Buffalo Sabres' Paul Gaustad tries to get a shot past Vancouver Canucks goalie Roberto Luongo, right, as Canucks' Christian Ehrhoff, left, looks on during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Monday, Jan. 25, 2010. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jonathan Hayward)

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What did we learn about the Sabres during their trip to the Left Coast?

This game followed the theme of most of the games during the Sabres seven game road trip. The Sabres played well but they made mistakes that ended up in the back of their net. Henrik Tallinder put himself out of position on the first Canucks goal and bot Steve Montador and Toni Lydman were caught pinching on the second Vancouver goal. The third Canucks goal was a thing of beauty and if you haven't seen it I suggest watching the highlights after the jump.

The Sabres battled for 60 minutes but in the end their blunders and a controversial call by Kerry Fraser were the difference in the game. Every Sabres fan, the Vancouver broadcast team and studio analysts Nick Kypreos and Doug Maclean all thought it was a goal but instead it was a cross-checking penalty on Paul Gaustad.

My issue is not with the call itself but with how the play transpired. Fraser disallowed the goal but never signaled penalty until he was summoned to the time keepers box by the in arena horn which usually means it will be reviewed. It was then that he signaled a penalty which made it appear that he was trying to decide why the goal wasn't allowed. Check out this video at Goose's Roost to see for yourself. Of course the NHL won't let their officials address the media so we will never know why he made the call.

I always believe that if a game was decided by one bad call, no matter how bad it was, you probably don't deserve to win anyway. The Sabres had chances to win the hockey game but failed. They had terrible breakdowns on two of the three Canucks goals and you could even blame the third on Mike Grier for a late backcheck. Hopefully the Sabres learned a lesson from this game and will use it for motivation down the stretch.

I choose to see the positive aspect of this West Coast trip. The Sabres found out they can play with the best of the West but they need to limit their mistakes. The Sabres were their own worst enemy in all three regulation losses to Anaheim, San Jose and Vancouver.

They finished the trip with a disappointing 2-3-2 record and I'm sure they are not pleased with the outcome. If they can learn from what went wrong on this trip, the team will be better in the long run.

Corsi Ratings | Event Summary | Nucks Misconduct

Final Thoughts

Tim Connolly assisted on a power play goal by Thomas Vanek to extend his point streak to 16 games.
How did the Canucks have only two penalty minutes in the entire game? This is a team that is eighth in the league in penalty minutes and they had a total of two. I think that might be more controversial than the disallowed goal. The refs did not call very many penalties on either team despite plenty of opportunity to do so.
The Sabres power play was 1-for-1 on the night. They seem to be getting at least one power play goal in every game recently and that is important to the teams success.
The Sabres finally come back home but a game against the New Jersey Devils tomorrow means it won't get any easier. I expect the Sabres to come out and play with a purpose against the Devils on Wednesday.

Roll Call

Roll Call: bflo, Afino, David Oleksy, missy, krytime, Ubiquitous, Americanario, tripl21, manic hispanic, ra001m, Kelownakid, Zachary Zielonka, JSCoope, Rafal Ladysz, Monotonousblob, dfderie, TEMSON, Yankee Canuck, kitaman27, vancitydan, The Burl 8, Putre, kman6406, clownfat, PopeInTheWoods, sabre74kkn, North Java Sabra
Total Users: 27
Total Posts: 382
Total Threads: 1

Name	# of Posts
TEMSON	41
bflo	41
Rafal Ladysz	41
David Oleksy	39
Ubiquitous	32
missy	25
JSCoope	23
dfderie	22
krytime	20
ra001m	18
Americanario	14
The Burl 8	13
manic hispanic	13
sabre74kkn	7
kitaman27	6
kman6406	4
clownfat	4
Monotonousblob	3
Zachary Zielonka	3
PopeInTheWoods	2
tripl21	2
Kelownakid	2
Yankee Canuck	2
vancitydan	2
North Java Sabra	1
Putre	1
Afino	1