SB Nation - Bryan Little

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Which Thrashers Are Playing Well at Even Strength?

The Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

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The Thrashers have excelled at Even Strength so far this season. After the goaltenders, the biggest reason for improvement in ES situations are the two players acquired mid-summer. Nik Antropov has been the Thrashers best forward at ES and Pavel Kubina has been the best defenseman at ES. I've been critical of Don Waddell's free agent acquisitions in past summers but he hit a home run with these two guys. They were precisely what the team needed and as a consequence the Thrashers are much improved.

Forwards

The coaching staff might not like to use terms like "first line" or "third line" but the ES Time On Ice (TOI) paint a rather clear picture. The Russian speaking line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Afinogenov is clearly #1 in ice time. The next two lines are pretty even Kozlov-White-Little and Kane-Peverley-Armstrong. The 4th line (Boulton-Slater-Thorburn) with Marty Reasoner going back and forth between the 3rd and 4th lines.

Who is facing the toughest opposition? According the Gabe Desjardin's Quality of Competition measure (opponent's Relative Goal Differential at Even Strength) Todd White, Bryan Little Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk face the best players, while Boulton, Slater and Thorburn are sheltered.

Who is most effective? At even strength the name of the game is winning on the scoreboard. I have ranked all the players below according to their Goal Differential (GFA-GAA) per 60 minutes of ES TOI. Antropov is your clear leader. Why have the Thrashers gotten so much better this season? Well look at that list of players and you can see that 4 of the 5 most effective ES players were not on this roster one year ago today. Peverley was added in last January an Antropov via Free Agency, Kane at the NHL Draft and Afinogenov was a late NHL Camp tryout. Every single one of those moves has worked out very well!

Another measure to compare players is Desjardins' "Rating" column which compares each players net Goal Differential when that player is on the ice to when that player is off the ice. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk averages a +.59 Goal Differential when he is on the ice, but his Rating is just .01 which means that the Atlanta Thrashers post a+.58 when Kovalchuk is off the ice at ES. On the other hand, the Thrashers do much better when Nik Antropov is on the ice than when he is off it. In fact, when Antropov is off the ice the Thrashers have been out-scored at ES this season--he is only forward for whom that is true.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
NIK ANTROPOV	26	14.6	0.00	29	16	4.59	2.53	2.06	2.28
MARTY REASONER	26	9.2	0.00	14	7	3.52	1.76	1.76	1.57
EVANDER KANE	26	12.1	0.00	20	13	3.81	2.48	1.33	1.13
RICH PEVERLEY	26	12.9	-0.03	20	14	3.57	2.50	1.07	0.79
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	26	14.4	0.01	24	18	3.85	2.89	0.96	0.67
BRYAN LITTLE	24	12.6	0.09	16	12	3.17	2.38	0.79	0.64
ILYA KOVALCHUK	20	15.1	0.07	17	14	3.37	2.77	0.59	0.01
COLBY ARMSTRONG	25	11.6	-0.02	12	12	2.48	2.48	0.00	-0.49
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	26	11.8	0.07	12	14	2.34	2.73	-0.39	-1.21
ERIC BOULTON	24	6.2	-0.09	4	6	1.62	2.43	-0.81	-1.31
CHRIS THORBURN	26	6.7	-0.06	4	6	1.38	2.07	-0.69	-1.40
TODD WHITE	26	12.0	0.13	10	15	1.93	2.89	-0.96	-1.99
JIM SLATER	11	8.4	-0.07	1	5	0.65	3.26	-2.61	-4.94

On defense Pavel Kubina has played like an All-Star minus big gaudy point totals.The Toronto Maple Leafs dumped Kubina's salary so they could sign Mike Komisarek, but I suspect that Kubina is having a better season than Komisarek is. When Kubina is on the ice in Even Skater situations the Thrashers have outscored the opposition by an astonishing 29-11 margin. Wow! When Pavel Kubina is off the ice at Even Strength the Thrashers have been outscored this season--Kubina is the only defenseman for which that statement is true. According to Desjardins Quality of Competition rating, Kubina is also facing the toughest opponents every night (with Ron Hainsey right behind him). Kubina makes some big coin ($5 million) and if he departs as a UFA this summer he will leave a giant hole.

Despite putting up some big goal totals this season Zach Bogosian has been exploited at times during even strength play. His 3.25 GAA is not very good. All three of the 3rd pairing defensemen appear to drag down the team's offense when they are on the ice (compare at their GFA to the top four guys).

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
PAVEL KUBINA	25	16.8	0.08	29	11	4.14	1.57	2.57	3.15
TOBIAS ENSTROM	26	16.3	0.02	26	17	3.69	2.41	1.28	1.20
ANSSI SALMELA	15	13.0	-0.04	7	6	2.15	1.85	0.31	-0.17
RON HAINSEY	24	15.6	0.07	19	18	3.04	2.88	0.16	-0.34
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	24	13.5	-0.04	11	13	2.04	2.41	-0.37	-1.14
ZACH BOGOSIAN	26	17.8	0.04	21	25	2.73	3.25	-0.52	-1.67
MARK POPOVIC	16	11.7	-0.09	7	10	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Conclusion

The Thrashers are playing better because they are better. The new players that were added this summer (Kubina, Antropov, Afinogenov, Kane) all rank near the top at their respective positions.

Analysis: Who is Playing Well on the Thrashers Power Play

The Falconer — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:15 -0000

One season ago the Thrashers power play finished the season 11th with 69 PP Goals scored. This year the Power Play is ranked 6th and on pace to score 67 Goals (looks like PP% rate is down in the NHL after rising sharply last season).

FORWARDS

Ilya Kovlachuk always plays the point position on the PP so I have put him in the chart with the other defenseman below. There are really six forwards who have seen substantial time on the PP this season. All six are averaging around 3 minutes per game of 5 on 4 time. The Peverly-Antropov-Afinogenov group has been far more effective than the Kozlov-White-Little group so far.

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G DIFF	MINUTES
NIK ANTROPOV	C	25	2.79	13	0	11.19	0.00	11.19	70
RICH PEVERLEY	C	25	2.92	13	0	10.69	0.00	10.69	73
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	RW	25	3.05	12	0	9.44	0.00	9.44	76
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	LW	25	3.08	8	1	6.22	0.78	5.45	77
BRYAN LITTLE	RW	23	3.04	7	1	6.00	0.86	5.15	70
TODD WHITE	C	25	3.19	7	1	5.26	0.75	4.51	80

DEFENSE

On the blueline the allocation of ice time is much more uneven. Kovalchuk and Enstrom average nearly 5 minutes per game and Kubina, Bogosian and Hainsey get the leftover scraps basically. Kovalchuk has been on the ice for 14 PP GF which leads the team, but he also gets a load of ice time too.

Who should play with Kovalchuk at the point? So far it has been Enstrom, but Kubina has been the most effective point man (in limited action). The biggest problem with Enstrom is that he is extremely reluctant to shoot--everyone knows he is just trying to feed the puck to Kovalchuk. If I were coach I'd give Kubina and Bogosian more minutes on the PP and tell them to take the open shot. If the other PKers go into man coverage on Kovalchuk, then it becomes a 4 on 3 and the Thrashers must become better at exploiting the open man--whomever is open must be willing to shoot the puck.

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G DIFF	MINUTES
PAVEL KUBINA	D	24	1.73	7	1	10.12	1.45	8.67	42
ILYA KOVALCHUK	LW	19	4.89	14	1	9.04	0.65	8.40	93
ZACH BOGOSIAN	D	25	1.68	5	0	7.16	0.00	7.16	42
TOBIAS ENSTROM	D	25	4.60	12	0	6.25	0.00	6.25	115
RON HAINSEY	D	23	0.87	2	0	5.99	0.00	5.99	20

CONCLUSION

The Thrashers really need to get Kozlov and Little going in the 2nd half to keep that PP rolling. Some tweaks on the blueline such as more ice time for shooters like Kubina and Bogosian might help as well.

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

Let's start a trade rumor: the Nashville Predators should go after Atlanta's Bryan Little

Dirk Hoag — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:23:41 -0000

More photos » by Erik S. Lesser - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers center Bryan Little, right, takes a shot against Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury during the first period of their NHL hockey game on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2009, at Philips Arena in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Erik S. Lesser)

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Over the last few days, the presence of two members of the Atlanta Thrashers organization on press row in Nashville stirred up talk of a possible trade between the two teams, with hockey's most infamous rumor-monger touting a potential deal for Ilya Kovalchuk. His reasoning was that the Predators ownership was interested in making a big, splashy acquisition to drive fan interest and ticket sales.

This (like his earlier hyping of the Preds pursuing Marian Gaborik as a free agent, or trading for Alex Ovechkin) was stupendously stupid on a number of levels. First, I highly doubt that with David Freeman selling off assets to pay his taxes, he's going to turn around and write a huge paycheck for any player, just on the hopes that the fans would flock to the ticket window and pay for him.

Besides, have you seen what ticket sales have been like in Atlanta? It's not like Kovalchuk is packing the house there...

Nevertheless, the fact that front office personnel from the Thrashers did come here for a couple games is noteworthy, so let me share with you a conversation I had recently with a Thrashers blogger as to a trade situation that might indeed make sense between Atlanta and Nashville...

The following conversation between myself and The Falconer of the outstanding Bird Watchers Anonymous took place over the last few days. Note that this is all informed speculation, we make no pretense of having access to mysterious "sources" on this matter:

Me: It looks like Atlanta's assistant GM and director of player personnel have attended each of the last two Predators games, and since the teams don't play until the end of January, that's fueling a lot of trade speculation, some of which (Ek talking up Kovalchuk) is beyond idiotic. So who might the Thrashers be willing to part with, and what might they be looking for? I'd love to see Slava Kozlov help boost Nashville's power play, for example.

The Falconer: To be honest I wouldn't read too much into it. If a trade were brewing then I would expect Rick Dudley to show up... But let's play this game anyway.

Kozlov has a no trade clause, so not him. Kovalchuck isn't going anywhere other than the KHL. The Thrashers are about to have 8 healthy D with the return of Boris Valabik so that would be my guess. Also Bryan Little has struggled mightily. Slater or Reasoner perhaps. Kari Lehtonen is probably not going to be a Thrasher next year, but who trades for an injured goalie.

The Thrashers are 7-1-1 since Kovalchuk's return so there is no urgency at our end, the team is earning points. Also there are glaring roster needs. If I had to guess I'd say the defenseman logjam--perhaps Anssi Salmela who really is a power play specialist.

Me: Dudley and Dobson were the names mentioned as in attendance, for what that's worth. If excess defensemen is Atlanta's problem, then I really don't see a match here, because that's probably Nashville's greatest strength right now. Might the Thrashers be interested in Dan Ellis, perhaps? David Poile said before the season that if Rinne proved a worthy #1, that they might deal Ellis, and that's certainly proved out so far. That would also make sense as to why the Thrashers would be in town the last two days, because that's been the likeliest opportunity to watch Ellis play for the last few weeks.

The Falconer: Hmm, well if both Dudley and Dobson were there than that's much more interesting. From the ATL end, Hedberg is playing his best hockey ever in a Thrashers uniform. With Lehtonen returning sometime in the spring, I can't see them adding Ellis unless NSH takes a goalie back the other way. I really find this a head scratcher because I don't see an obvious fit. What are the needs from NSH side?

Me: As far as what Nashville needs, I'd say a goal-scoring winger and/or a playmaking center (long term that's Colin Wilson, but I'd like to see a one-year band-aid until he's ready). Strange stuff, and it doesn't help that Ek is hyping Kovalchuk. I don't see that as even close to realistic.

The Falconer: If they were going to trade Kovalchuk they would probably have to fire Waddell first. He's not going to make that trade. If anything we could see a repeat of the Bouwmeester drama only this time the player departs for the KHL after his contract is finished.

It is possible that Bryan Little might be available but he's so young NSH would need to offer something of value in return.

-----------------------------------------

Now there's an idea worth pursuing - might Bryan Little make a good fit with the Predators?

Bryan Little

#10 / Center / Atlanta Thrashers

Height: 5-11

Weight: 185

Born: Nov 12, 1987

	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2009 - Bryan Little	22	2	8	10	1	2	0	0	0	0	35	5.7

Scouting Report

Assets	Is a top playmaker from the wing position, mainly because he's a natural center. Owns a good wrist shot and sound defensive instincts. Is a tireless worker.
Flaws	Lacks ideal NHL size and strength, and is only average in the skating department. Needs to play with more consistency.
Career Potential	Scoring winger.

Last season, Little scored 31 goals, but is off to a slow start this year, having perhaps lost some prime-time duty since the Thrashers acquired Nik Antropov and Maxim Afinogenov. I would think that in Nashville, there is ample opportunity to earn power play time. As a "scoring winger" with "sound defensive instincts", his scouting report certainly reads like something the Predators would be interested in. And we all know what a change of scenery can do for a player's offensive opportunities, right Rich Peverley?

An added boost here is Little's flexibility to play wing or center. Nashville has struggled for years to get any offensive production down the middle after Jason Arnott and David Legwand, and a player like Little would give the team a short-term solution if they wanted to put him between Martin Erat and Patric Hornqvist, for example, and then move him over to the wing when Colin Wilson is ready for full-time NHL duty. Relying on Wilson to provide that punch this season might be expecting too much of a player stepping up from the NCAA.

At 22 years of age, Little is set to become a restricted free agent this summer, and makes $850,000 this year; with only the single productive season, he shouldn't command a budget-busting contract quite yet, so from a financial perspective this is a player that David Poile should be able to work into both his short- and long-term plans.

Offensive talent + good defense + hard working + cheap = ideal acquisition target for Nashville?

At no little cost, however

The flip side to the question, of course, is what it might take to acquire a player like Little.

It was pointed out above that Atlanta already has 8 healthy defensemen, so a current blueliner is probably out, but what about a prospect like Jonathan Blum? His upside may well be higher than most of what Atlanta already has. I'm sure Nashville would love to get some value out of Ryan Jones in trade, as he's toiling away in Milwaukee making NHL money.

There are also draft picks, which might be of interest to an Atlanta team that is preparing to empty the bank vault for Ilya Kovalchuk, and will need to complement him with younger players on entry-level deals.

I'm sure the price would be significant, but quite less than what Phil Kessel would have cost in trade. Bryan Little might be the kind of meaningful, but not outrageous acquisition that can help make the Predators a more dangerous team come playoff time.

Poll

Should the Nashville Predators pursue a trade for Atlanta's Bryan Little?

No

31 votes

Yes

60 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Gameday: Penguins Waddle Into Philips To Take on Thrashers.

aaron b — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 21:09:59 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers right wing Maxim Afinogenov (61) reacts along with Ilya Kovalchuk after making a tying goal against the Boston Bruins during third period action of their NHL hockey game, sending the game to overtime Thursday, Nov. 19, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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	v.

Atlanta Thrashers		Pittsburgh Penguins

Philips Arena
7:00PM
TV: SportSouth HD Radio: 680 the FAN
SBNation: Game page, PensBurgh
TSN Coverage

Johan Hedberg		Marc Andre Fleury
(4-1-0, .923% 2.63)		(11-7-0, .899 2.67)

Jump for game notes.

Slightly abbreviated gameday post today, folks. Half of the BWA-Team have been down here for Blogger Day @ Philips Arena. Hopefully we'll have some excellent stuff up here soon. If you can't make it down to the arena tonight, come back here for live-blogging from high above the ice at Philips Arena. Big shout outs to Big Tex & Frozen Pill over at ongoalanalysis.com, we've been having lots of fun hanging out with some Texan hockey bloggers.

Penguins Notes

Last Game: The Pens are coming off a disheartening loss (6-2) to the Ottawa Senators this past Thursday night. They may just be a little angry about that.

Recent Record: After an 11-3 October to open the season, the Pens have gone 3-5 so far in November. Injuries have played a large part in this slide - Pittsburgh has lost 79 man-games to injury on the season.

Comeback: Tonight marks the return of defenseman Brooks Orpik to the Penguins lineup. Orpik has missed 4 games with a lower body injury. Both Maxime Talbot (C) and Sergei Conchar (D) returned Thursday night against the Senators.

Aaron, Why Are Pens Games Special? I'm so glad you asked. Games against Pittsburgh have taken on a pugnacious tone of late. Watch for things to get chippy early.

Who to Watch Out For: Take your pick: Captain Sidney Crosby has 21 points in 14 games vs. Atlanta; Evgeni Malkin has 20 points in 12 games; Sergei Gonchar has 35 points in 30 games; Marc-Andre Fleury is 7-3-0 with a 2.32 GAA in 10 games. I heard they picked up a little hardware last year.

Thrashers Notes

Last Game: Thanks to a last-minute goal by Maxim Afinogenov, the Thrashers somehow snuck out a point versus Boston, losing in the shootout 4-3.

Recent Record: The loss ended Atlanta's winning streak at four.

Shake It Out: The Thrashers had another slow start on Thusday, with Boston scoring 5:59 into the first period. They are still 7-0 when scoring first.

Who To Watch Out For: Max Afinogenov is riding a four game point streak with that magnificent goal Thursday; Toby Enstrom has 7 points in 7 games; Ilya Kovalchuk is has 11 points in four games.

Let that sink in: eleven points in four games.

Just wait til he's 100%.

I call a Bryan Little slumpbuster tonight. Two goals for Lits paves the way for a 5-3 victory for the Thrashers.

Uh oh, better finish up - laptop is running out of batte

Derek Roy: Small in Size, Large in Talent

Rafal Ladysz — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:52:06 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

8 months ago: Buffalo Sabres' Derek Roy (9) scores on a penalty shot against Carolina Hurricanes goalie Michael Leighton (49) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Raleigh, N.C., Thursday, April 9, 2009. Buffalo won 5-1. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Great things come in small packages. Plenty of NHL players bring true meaning to that famous saying competing in a much huger capacity than their misleading size. Martin St. Louis (5' 9", 177 pounds) is the iconic figure in such a way having earned a Stanley Cup, Hart Trophy and Art Ross Title all in 2004.

Hard work, grit and determination made him the accomplished athlete he is. There are many players similar to his stature such as Mike Cammalleri, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Pavel Datsyuk, Zach Parise, Ray Whitney, Bryan Little; the list is endless.

In Buffalo, Derek Roy possesses those very same qualities. While he's not the biggest guy Lindy Ruff has, his contributions on a nightly basis are immeasurable. A special teams contributor both ways (power play and penalty killing), Roy can lead the way offensively, does everything in his power for the sake of the club and maintains a responsible all-around display.

His professional career took off the same year St. Louis (the player not the team) dominated the league at a time when Miroslav Satan and Daniel Briere were two of the Sabres more threatening forwards. Named as a member of the NHL's YoungStars group, Roy scored nine goals and 10 assists in 49 games.

Then, because of the lock-out, he spent another year in Rochester grooming his skills. Eventually, he found himself regularly in the Sabres line-up as he failed to make the roster out of training camp proving it a difficult task for the staff to ignore his AHL performances.

Roy's strides for improvement have been remarkable as he's quickly transformed into a first-line star used in every situation imaginable. As a depth player first, the 109 points he amassed in two years was instrumental in both of Buffalo's playoff berths in 2006 and 2007.

The postseason became another moment for Roy to prove himself in and he did with 22 points in 34 games. Unexpectedly, Chris Drury and Briere decided to pursue greener pastures over two years ago and let's just say they haven't been the same performers since leaving. Sabres management decided to supply Roy with a six-year, $24 million dollar contract in light of those departures.

This saddled the 26-year-old into an automatic position with increased responsibility as he would have to quickly fill part of the offensive and leadership gap. No problems there. The Ottawa native has led the Sabres in scoring two consecutive seasons with 81 and 70 points respectably.

Although they missed the postseason on those two occasions, it was by mere inches and the 12-4-1 start this season indicates that such a trend may vanish come April. There's still a long way to go but barring any misfortunes such as Ryan Miller's injury last year, Buffalo should return to the promised land.

And as the campaign progresses, so too will Derek Roy's growth. Perhaps not in height but definitely as a player.

Recap: Thrashers Beat Blueshirts 5-3

aaron b — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:05:59 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers' Ilya Kovalchuk (17), of Russia, celebrates with teammates after scoring during the second period of an NHL hockey game Thursday, Nov. 12, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

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Thoughts from last night's game:

Ilya Kovalchuk came back! He had 3 points!

Ryan Callahan & Zach Bogosian should be okay as long as they play on the same team for the Olympics.

The power play looks to be returning to form. Rich Peverley's PP marker in the first period broke a 0-13 slump that stretched back to November 5^th (vs. Columbus).

Did I mention Ilya Kovalchuk came back? He seemed to be kinda useful on the 1^st power play unit. Maybe he should do more of that.

Pretty goals by both Evander Kane and Colby Armstrong. Still MIA? Slava Kozlov (1 shot, 1 PPA), Todd White (1 shot, 1 PPA) and Bryan Little (Nothing. No. Thing. Oh wait, 1 hit).

As far as Mr. Evander Kane goes: I was officially wrong. Seems time in NHL has done him some good. Here's to many more pretty goals.

I will not be mentioning the oppositions' secondary forwards anymore, as both Brian Boyle and Artem Anisimov scored for the Rangers last night.

There seemed to be a massive jump in the Thrashers compete level - having your captain back may help. I greatly enjoyed watching Kovalchuk get fired up during the Eric Boulton/Donald Brashear tilt.

Was it just me, or did Darren Eliot actually utter the phrase "Pevs Dispenser?"

Finally, big game against the Kings of Los Angeles this evening. Mortimer Peacock disputes the validity of their claim to the throne, even as Anze Kopitar continues his zombie-like march toward the scoring crown.

Defense and Goaltenders Carrying the Load for Thrashers

The Falconer — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:10:14 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers goaltender Johan Hedberg, right, of Sweden, makes a save against St. Louis Blues center Brad Boyes (22) during the shootout at an NHL hockey game Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009 at Philips Arena, in Atlanta. The Thrashers won 3-2 in a shoot out. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

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The Thrashers finally re-wrote the script last yesterday. Stop me if you're heard this before: Thrashers started off slow at home, fall behind and stage a furious third period. Only this time that 3rd period included two goals in the final 7 minutes to gain one point and two more goals in the tie-prevention device to add a second point. The 2nd Atlanta goal came as a result of a hugely favorable bounce of the puck.

It was great to see Enstrom and Hainsey get credit for their 2nd goals of the season. Combined with Kubina's recent goal and Bogosian's regular scoring ability the defense has provided virtually all of the scoring since Kovalchuk departed.

When Ilya went down I mentioned the offensive talent of the Thrashers defense--but this is getting riduculous. Someone among the forwards needs to get rolling. The Thrashers worked the puck around in the 3rd but nobody seems to have any luck up front right now. Bryan Little, Slava Kozlov, Todd White and Antropov--the team badly needs one of these top six forwards to catch fire in November. I will credit Kozlov with a great rush to the net where he lowered the shoulder and drove hard to the net. The puck didn't go into the net, but it was exactly the sort of thing the team needs him to do every single game with Kovalchuk out.

The effort level from the Thrasher forwards was much better, but their decision making with the puck is not good right now. As a group the forwards are failing to shoot quickly while the lane is still open. Far too often they are waiting to shoot. The delay usually leads to the goalie squaring up to the point of attack or the defense filling and blocking the shooting lane. The Blues were extremely good at using their big bodies to jam up the slot area of the ice last night. The Thrashers forwards need to shoot earlier.

A quality start for Hedberg last night. He made a couple of huge saves after the Thrashers tied the game. Allowing a goal in that spot would have been extremely deflating. For years I've wondered what the Thrashers could do with above average NHL goaltending on a nightly basis. I don't have a stat for this, but it seems to me that the number of "fluke goals" or "weak goals" is down sharply so far.

If the team can find a way to kick start the forward lines, that will help them weather the Kovy-less period.

Real Standings (Points above .500)

+7 PIT
+7 WSH
+7 NJD
+5 BUF
+5 PHI
+3 NYR
+2 TBL
+2 OTT
+1 ATL
0 NYI
0 BOS
-1 MON
-4 FLA
-4 TOR
-9 CAR

How is Coach Anderson Using His Roster?

The Falconer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:51:00 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

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Last season, I wrote about Zone Shift and Shift Start location (Desjardins has a description here). Now that we have a few games worth of data, I thought it might be interesting to see how Coach Anderson is using his roster. Shifts that begin in the offensive zone are the easiest--they are much more likely to lead to a shot on goal by the Thrashers. On the other hand, if you start a shift in your own end, that faceoff results in a shot against 25% of the time. Not only do defensive zone faceoffs lead to more shots against, they lead to HIGH QUALITY shots against. Desjardins ran the numbers this summer and found that shots that are fired with a few seconds of a DZ faceoff go into the net at the same rate as shots fired on a 5 on 3 Power Play. In other words, losing a DZ faceoff is the equivalent of giving your opponent a 5 second two man advantage--that's a big effect! If you're the coach you have to game plan these situations.

I have created a table below that shows the breakdown of each player's Offensive Zone Face Offs (OF FO), Defensive Zone Face Offs (DZ FO), and Neutral Zone (NZ FO) in the first three games. The final column is the percentage of faceoffs that are "tough" because they are in the Defensive Zone.

Among Thrasher Forwards, the 3rd line is getting the "tough" draws. Peverley, Kane, Armstrong and Reasoner. Despite starting in the "bad" end of the ice, Armstrong and Peverley are the only two Thrashers forwards with a positive Corsi (Net Shots Attempted) so far this season. That is very impressive. The other thing this tells us is that John Anderson knows how to deploy his players. The right guys are being sent over the boards to do the dirty work that is crucial to winning hockey games.

Who is being protected? Not the 1st line. The Kovalcuk-Antropov-Little line is right around the team average in terms of their share of DZ face offs. The 2nd line comes in slighty under the team average, but it is the 4th line that is REALLY being kept away from DZ face offs. Forget that bluster about the Thrashers having the "best 4th line in hockey"--Coach Anderson doesn't trust them to handle the tough draws in their own end. Boulton and Thorburn have seen just 4 DZ draws over three games. So far, the 3rd line is taking the 4th line's share of DZ draws.

ATL Forwards	OZ FO	DZ FO	NZ FO	Total FO	DZ % of all FO
RICH PEVERLEY	4	12	9	25	0.480
EVANDER KANE	3	11	9	23	0.478
COLBY ARMSTRONG	3	9	8	20	0.450
MARTY REASONER	5	7	4	16	0.438
BRYAN LITTLE	10	13	20	43	0.302
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ILYA KOVALCHUK	10	13	21	44	0.295
NIK ANTROPOV	9	11	21	41	0.268
TODD WHITE	13	11	19	43	0.256
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	12	10	18	40	0.250
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	13	10	18	41	0.244
ERIC BOULTON	4	2	10	16	0.125
CHRIS THORBURN	4	2	9	15	0.133
JIM SLATER	0	0	8	8	0.000
ATL Defense
RON HAINSEY	17	18	19	54	0.333
PAVEL KUBINA	16	17	21	54	0.315
MARK POPOVIC	2	4	7	13	0.308
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ANSSI SALMELA	6	8	14	28	0.286
TOBIAS ENSTROM	6	12	24	42	0.286
ZACH BOGOSIAN	7	11	25	43	0.256
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	6	4	6	16	0.250

At defense we see much less of a spread than we did with the forward lines. Every D man falls somewhere between 33%-25% DZ draws and the team average is right at 30%. The Hainsey-Kubina pairing is getting the most dirty work, and like the Armstrong line, they have managed to post a positive shot differential despite a poor starting position. Bogosian and Schubert have received the most favorable ES shift starting locations.

Conclusion

It is encouraging to see that the guys who have been given the worst starting positions have ended up with a positive Corsi Number (Net Shots Attempted). It is also encouraging to see that Coach Anderson has had the right players on the ice in those situations. What is discouraging is that the guys getting the better shift start location are not doing more with their territorial advantage--that must improve for the Thrashers to make the playoffs this year.