SB Nation - Vyacheslav Kozlov

Which Thrashers Are Playing Well at Even Strength?

The Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

The Thrashers have excelled at Even Strength so far this season. After the goaltenders, the biggest reason for improvement in ES situations are the two players acquired mid-summer. Nik Antropov has been the Thrashers best forward at ES and Pavel Kubina has been the best defenseman at ES. I've been critical of Don Waddell's free agent acquisitions in past summers but he hit a home run with these two guys. They were precisely what the team needed and as a consequence the Thrashers are much improved.

Forwards

The coaching staff might not like to use terms like "first line" or "third line" but the ES Time On Ice (TOI) paint a rather clear picture. The Russian speaking line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Afinogenov is clearly #1 in ice time. The next two lines are pretty even Kozlov-White-Little and Kane-Peverley-Armstrong. The 4th line (Boulton-Slater-Thorburn) with Marty Reasoner going back and forth between the 3rd and 4th lines.

Who is facing the toughest opposition? According the Gabe Desjardin's Quality of Competition measure (opponent's Relative Goal Differential at Even Strength) Todd White, Bryan Little Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk face the best players, while Boulton, Slater and Thorburn are sheltered.

Who is most effective? At even strength the name of the game is winning on the scoreboard. I have ranked all the players below according to their Goal Differential (GFA-GAA) per 60 minutes of ES TOI. Antropov is your clear leader. Why have the Thrashers gotten so much better this season? Well look at that list of players and you can see that 4 of the 5 most effective ES players were not on this roster one year ago today. Peverley was added in last January an Antropov via Free Agency, Kane at the NHL Draft and Afinogenov was a late NHL Camp tryout. Every single one of those moves has worked out very well!

Another measure to compare players is Desjardins' "Rating" column which compares each players net Goal Differential when that player is on the ice to when that player is off the ice. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk averages a +.59 Goal Differential when he is on the ice, but his Rating is just .01 which means that the Atlanta Thrashers post a+.58 when Kovalchuk is off the ice at ES. On the other hand, the Thrashers do much better when Nik Antropov is on the ice than when he is off it. In fact, when Antropov is off the ice the Thrashers have been out-scored at ES this season--he is only forward for whom that is true.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
NIK ANTROPOV	26	14.6	0.00	29	16	4.59	2.53	2.06	2.28
MARTY REASONER	26	9.2	0.00	14	7	3.52	1.76	1.76	1.57
EVANDER KANE	26	12.1	0.00	20	13	3.81	2.48	1.33	1.13
RICH PEVERLEY	26	12.9	-0.03	20	14	3.57	2.50	1.07	0.79
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	26	14.4	0.01	24	18	3.85	2.89	0.96	0.67
BRYAN LITTLE	24	12.6	0.09	16	12	3.17	2.38	0.79	0.64
ILYA KOVALCHUK	20	15.1	0.07	17	14	3.37	2.77	0.59	0.01
COLBY ARMSTRONG	25	11.6	-0.02	12	12	2.48	2.48	0.00	-0.49
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	26	11.8	0.07	12	14	2.34	2.73	-0.39	-1.21
ERIC BOULTON	24	6.2	-0.09	4	6	1.62	2.43	-0.81	-1.31
CHRIS THORBURN	26	6.7	-0.06	4	6	1.38	2.07	-0.69	-1.40
TODD WHITE	26	12.0	0.13	10	15	1.93	2.89	-0.96	-1.99
JIM SLATER	11	8.4	-0.07	1	5	0.65	3.26	-2.61	-4.94

On defense Pavel Kubina has played like an All-Star minus big gaudy point totals.The Toronto Maple Leafs dumped Kubina's salary so they could sign Mike Komisarek, but I suspect that Kubina is having a better season than Komisarek is. When Kubina is on the ice in Even Skater situations the Thrashers have outscored the opposition by an astonishing 29-11 margin. Wow! When Pavel Kubina is off the ice at Even Strength the Thrashers have been outscored this season--Kubina is the only defenseman for which that statement is true. According to Desjardins Quality of Competition rating, Kubina is also facing the toughest opponents every night (with Ron Hainsey right behind him). Kubina makes some big coin ($5 million) and if he departs as a UFA this summer he will leave a giant hole.

Despite putting up some big goal totals this season Zach Bogosian has been exploited at times during even strength play. His 3.25 GAA is not very good. All three of the 3rd pairing defensemen appear to drag down the team's offense when they are on the ice (compare at their GFA to the top four guys).

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
PAVEL KUBINA	25	16.8	0.08	29	11	4.14	1.57	2.57	3.15
TOBIAS ENSTROM	26	16.3	0.02	26	17	3.69	2.41	1.28	1.20
ANSSI SALMELA	15	13.0	-0.04	7	6	2.15	1.85	0.31	-0.17
RON HAINSEY	24	15.6	0.07	19	18	3.04	2.88	0.16	-0.34
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	24	13.5	-0.04	11	13	2.04	2.41	-0.37	-1.14
ZACH BOGOSIAN	26	17.8	0.04	21	25	2.73	3.25	-0.52	-1.67
MARK POPOVIC	16	11.7	-0.09	7	10	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Conclusion

The Thrashers are playing better because they are better. The new players that were added this summer (Kubina, Antropov, Afinogenov, Kane) all rank near the top at their respective positions.

Analysis: Who is Playing Well on the Thrashers Power Play

The Falconer — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:15 -0000

One season ago the Thrashers power play finished the season 11th with 69 PP Goals scored. This year the Power Play is ranked 6th and on pace to score 67 Goals (looks like PP% rate is down in the NHL after rising sharply last season).

FORWARDS

Ilya Kovlachuk always plays the point position on the PP so I have put him in the chart with the other defenseman below. There are really six forwards who have seen substantial time on the PP this season. All six are averaging around 3 minutes per game of 5 on 4 time. The Peverly-Antropov-Afinogenov group has been far more effective than the Kozlov-White-Little group so far.

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G DIFF	MINUTES
NIK ANTROPOV	C	25	2.79	13	0	11.19	0.00	11.19	70
RICH PEVERLEY	C	25	2.92	13	0	10.69	0.00	10.69	73
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	RW	25	3.05	12	0	9.44	0.00	9.44	76
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	LW	25	3.08	8	1	6.22	0.78	5.45	77
BRYAN LITTLE	RW	23	3.04	7	1	6.00	0.86	5.15	70
TODD WHITE	C	25	3.19	7	1	5.26	0.75	4.51	80

DEFENSE

On the blueline the allocation of ice time is much more uneven. Kovalchuk and Enstrom average nearly 5 minutes per game and Kubina, Bogosian and Hainsey get the leftover scraps basically. Kovalchuk has been on the ice for 14 PP GF which leads the team, but he also gets a load of ice time too.

Who should play with Kovalchuk at the point? So far it has been Enstrom, but Kubina has been the most effective point man (in limited action). The biggest problem with Enstrom is that he is extremely reluctant to shoot--everyone knows he is just trying to feed the puck to Kovalchuk. If I were coach I'd give Kubina and Bogosian more minutes on the PP and tell them to take the open shot. If the other PKers go into man coverage on Kovalchuk, then it becomes a 4 on 3 and the Thrashers must become better at exploiting the open man--whomever is open must be willing to shoot the puck.

NAME	POS	GP	TOI/60	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G DIFF	MINUTES
PAVEL KUBINA	D	24	1.73	7	1	10.12	1.45	8.67	42
ILYA KOVALCHUK	LW	19	4.89	14	1	9.04	0.65	8.40	93
ZACH BOGOSIAN	D	25	1.68	5	0	7.16	0.00	7.16	42
TOBIAS ENSTROM	D	25	4.60	12	0	6.25	0.00	6.25	115
RON HAINSEY	D	23	0.87	2	0	5.99	0.00	5.99	20

CONCLUSION

The Thrashers really need to get Kozlov and Little going in the 2nd half to keep that PP rolling. Some tweaks on the blueline such as more ice time for shooters like Kubina and Bogosian might help as well.

Thrashers show up late, bury Panthers 2-1 in SO

Whale4ever — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 03:37:57 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

10 days ago: Florida Panthers left wing Rostislav Olesz (85), of the Czech Republic, collides with Atlanta Thrashers goalie Johan Hedberg, of Sweden, center, in the second period during an NHL hockey game in Sunrise, Fla., Saturday, Dec. 5, 2009. At right is Atlanta Thrashers defenseman Anssi Salmela, of Finland. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

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The good stuff first: Florida played a game tonight; came out shooting hard and often against Johan Hedberg and his suddenly-revived career, blasting the veteran netminder with 12 quality shots in the first period. The guy simply channeled The Force from start to finish. End of story.

The bad: whether legitimate or otherwise, the Cats found themselves on the hind end of far too many odd-man opportunities, including fighting off a five-minute major and game misconduct assessed to Michael Frolik for - presumably - boarding and "intent to injure" in the second frame. Yep, Frolik. He of 22 penalty minutes in 2008-09. Whatever...the Panthers stayed loose and confident throughout, and kept the net clean for another two minutes thanks to a Bryan McCabe "elbowing" call.

Penalties aside, the Panthers and Thrashers put on a production of "Playoff What-if", with each goaltender almost literally standing on his head, Tomas Vokoun stopping 36 shots and Hedberg laying a brick wall on 30. Both sides threw out their big guns; this was not a snoozefest. And Florida's Stephen Weiss was the go-to dood once more, banging home his 13th at 2:36 of the third period.

As has become customary news in recent days for Florida fans, the probable outcome - Atlanta scoring in the final minute of regulation to tie it - thankfully never materialized.

Instead, Ilya Kovalchuk scored four seconds prior to the final minute of regulation, thereby providing far less drama than games of late.

Overtime came and went as it has so many times this year. On to the shootout. Kovalchuk does the expected and places the Cats in an early hole. Weiss is stopped. Horton hit a post. Reinprecht scored. Then came everyone's favorite choice - opponents included - for shootout duty: Rusty Olesz. Does "backhand at the right-side of the net" sound familiar?

It did to Hedberg, who read it like a cheap novel. Up comes our new friend Rich Peverley, whose shot Vokoun had no chance on, put the game away. It's a point gained, and considering the past few weeks, a welcome point. But a point given to another Southeastern team.

Personal view: As stated, the Panthers showed up. Don't wish to drive up hopes of division championships with that statement, but they were there, and quite probably put a scare into the Thrashers, if only for 58+ minutes. Vokoun was rock-solid, the lines were well-managed, and there was no question a lot of work went into prepping for this one. A game-breaking forward - looking beyond David Booth here - would likely have made all the difference. Again. Whatever...they got to overtime, and with Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Washington all victorious this evening, Florida gained a point on, um, Toronto.

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

Derek Roy: Small in Size, Large in Talent

Rafal Ladysz — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 19:52:06 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

8 months ago: Buffalo Sabres' Derek Roy (9) scores on a penalty shot against Carolina Hurricanes goalie Michael Leighton (49) during the third period of an NHL hockey game in Raleigh, N.C., Thursday, April 9, 2009. Buffalo won 5-1. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Great things come in small packages. Plenty of NHL players bring true meaning to that famous saying competing in a much huger capacity than their misleading size. Martin St. Louis (5' 9", 177 pounds) is the iconic figure in such a way having earned a Stanley Cup, Hart Trophy and Art Ross Title all in 2004.

Hard work, grit and determination made him the accomplished athlete he is. There are many players similar to his stature such as Mike Cammalleri, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Pavel Datsyuk, Zach Parise, Ray Whitney, Bryan Little; the list is endless.

In Buffalo, Derek Roy possesses those very same qualities. While he's not the biggest guy Lindy Ruff has, his contributions on a nightly basis are immeasurable. A special teams contributor both ways (power play and penalty killing), Roy can lead the way offensively, does everything in his power for the sake of the club and maintains a responsible all-around display.

His professional career took off the same year St. Louis (the player not the team) dominated the league at a time when Miroslav Satan and Daniel Briere were two of the Sabres more threatening forwards. Named as a member of the NHL's YoungStars group, Roy scored nine goals and 10 assists in 49 games.

Then, because of the lock-out, he spent another year in Rochester grooming his skills. Eventually, he found himself regularly in the Sabres line-up as he failed to make the roster out of training camp proving it a difficult task for the staff to ignore his AHL performances.

Roy's strides for improvement have been remarkable as he's quickly transformed into a first-line star used in every situation imaginable. As a depth player first, the 109 points he amassed in two years was instrumental in both of Buffalo's playoff berths in 2006 and 2007.

The postseason became another moment for Roy to prove himself in and he did with 22 points in 34 games. Unexpectedly, Chris Drury and Briere decided to pursue greener pastures over two years ago and let's just say they haven't been the same performers since leaving. Sabres management decided to supply Roy with a six-year, $24 million dollar contract in light of those departures.

This saddled the 26-year-old into an automatic position with increased responsibility as he would have to quickly fill part of the offensive and leadership gap. No problems there. The Ottawa native has led the Sabres in scoring two consecutive seasons with 81 and 70 points respectably.

Although they missed the postseason on those two occasions, it was by mere inches and the 12-4-1 start this season indicates that such a trend may vanish come April. There's still a long way to go but barring any misfortunes such as Ryan Miller's injury last year, Buffalo should return to the promised land.

And as the campaign progresses, so too will Derek Roy's growth. Perhaps not in height but definitely as a player.

Thrashers Poor Play Sinking Playoff Chances

The Falconer — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 08:54:20 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Kmonicek - AP

about 1 month ago: Atlanta Thrashers' Tobias Enstrom (39), of Sweden, moves the puck away from the goal guarded by Thrashers goalie Johan Hedberg (1), also of Sweden, as New York Islanders' Nate Thompson (11) skates in from behind during the third period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, Nov. 7, 2009, in Uniondale, N.Y. The Islanders defeatedt the Thrashers 6-3. (AP Photo/Kathy Kmonicek)

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Last night the Atlanta Thrashers bodies traveled to Long Island New York, but they left their competitive spirit back in Georgia. It was a pathetic effort in which they were repeated beaten to loose pucks and simply did not put forth the effort level required to win a NHL hockey game. This stinker of a road game comes on top of a recent home stand in which they showed the same problem in nearly every first period.

Now I understand that losing superstar and Captain Ilya Kovalchuk hurts the team's offensive production--but the problem hasn't been a lack of offensive. The problem is a lack of compete, a lack of intensity and a lack of determination. The Thrashers players need to look in the mirror and ask themselves if they really want the playoffs or not. Because if they don't dig deeper and work hard they're going to fall out of contention while Kovalchuk is healing.

When Kovalchuk went down my expectations were modest--if the team could just play close to .500 hockey they could tread water until their star player returned to the roster. Right now the Thrashers are not treading water they are slipping under. If they don't kick harder, the opportunity for post-season play be to far away when Ilya comes back.

The lack of leadership shown by assistant captain Vyacheslav Kozlov is a big problem. Zach Bogosian has really stepped up his offensive contributions with Kovalchuk out of the lineup. But Kozlov has been Missing In Action night after night. He needs to lower that shoulder and drive to the net more. He needs stop passing up shot opportunities and that puck. I've seen Kozlov do these things in the past, either Father Time has finally caught up to Kozlov or he just isn't working hard enough.

How is Coach Anderson Using His Roster?

The Falconer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:51:00 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

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Last season, I wrote about Zone Shift and Shift Start location (Desjardins has a description here). Now that we have a few games worth of data, I thought it might be interesting to see how Coach Anderson is using his roster. Shifts that begin in the offensive zone are the easiest--they are much more likely to lead to a shot on goal by the Thrashers. On the other hand, if you start a shift in your own end, that faceoff results in a shot against 25% of the time. Not only do defensive zone faceoffs lead to more shots against, they lead to HIGH QUALITY shots against. Desjardins ran the numbers this summer and found that shots that are fired with a few seconds of a DZ faceoff go into the net at the same rate as shots fired on a 5 on 3 Power Play. In other words, losing a DZ faceoff is the equivalent of giving your opponent a 5 second two man advantage--that's a big effect! If you're the coach you have to game plan these situations.

I have created a table below that shows the breakdown of each player's Offensive Zone Face Offs (OF FO), Defensive Zone Face Offs (DZ FO), and Neutral Zone (NZ FO) in the first three games. The final column is the percentage of faceoffs that are "tough" because they are in the Defensive Zone.

Among Thrasher Forwards, the 3rd line is getting the "tough" draws. Peverley, Kane, Armstrong and Reasoner. Despite starting in the "bad" end of the ice, Armstrong and Peverley are the only two Thrashers forwards with a positive Corsi (Net Shots Attempted) so far this season. That is very impressive. The other thing this tells us is that John Anderson knows how to deploy his players. The right guys are being sent over the boards to do the dirty work that is crucial to winning hockey games.

Who is being protected? Not the 1st line. The Kovalcuk-Antropov-Little line is right around the team average in terms of their share of DZ face offs. The 2nd line comes in slighty under the team average, but it is the 4th line that is REALLY being kept away from DZ face offs. Forget that bluster about the Thrashers having the "best 4th line in hockey"--Coach Anderson doesn't trust them to handle the tough draws in their own end. Boulton and Thorburn have seen just 4 DZ draws over three games. So far, the 3rd line is taking the 4th line's share of DZ draws.

ATL Forwards	OZ FO	DZ FO	NZ FO	Total FO	DZ % of all FO
RICH PEVERLEY	4	12	9	25	0.480
EVANDER KANE	3	11	9	23	0.478
COLBY ARMSTRONG	3	9	8	20	0.450
MARTY REASONER	5	7	4	16	0.438
BRYAN LITTLE	10	13	20	43	0.302
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ILYA KOVALCHUK	10	13	21	44	0.295
NIK ANTROPOV	9	11	21	41	0.268
TODD WHITE	13	11	19	43	0.256
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	12	10	18	40	0.250
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	13	10	18	41	0.244
ERIC BOULTON	4	2	10	16	0.125
CHRIS THORBURN	4	2	9	15	0.133
JIM SLATER	0	0	8	8	0.000
ATL Defense
RON HAINSEY	17	18	19	54	0.333
PAVEL KUBINA	16	17	21	54	0.315
MARK POPOVIC	2	4	7	13	0.308
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ANSSI SALMELA	6	8	14	28	0.286
TOBIAS ENSTROM	6	12	24	42	0.286
ZACH BOGOSIAN	7	11	25	43	0.256
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	6	4	6	16	0.250

At defense we see much less of a spread than we did with the forward lines. Every D man falls somewhere between 33%-25% DZ draws and the team average is right at 30%. The Hainsey-Kubina pairing is getting the most dirty work, and like the Armstrong line, they have managed to post a positive shot differential despite a poor starting position. Bogosian and Schubert have received the most favorable ES shift starting locations.

Conclusion

It is encouraging to see that the guys who have been given the worst starting positions have ended up with a positive Corsi Number (Net Shots Attempted). It is also encouraging to see that Coach Anderson has had the right players on the ice in those situations. What is discouraging is that the guys getting the better shift start location are not doing more with their territorial advantage--that must improve for the Thrashers to make the playoffs this year.

Game #3: Thrashers Suffer 1st Loss in Ottawa

The Falconer — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:19:51 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

2 months ago: Ottawa Senators' Daniel Alfredsson, of Sweden, is hit by Atlanta Thrashers' Zack Bogosian (4) during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Ottawa on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Fred Chartrand)

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It is very difficult to say anything intelligent about a game only broadcast on the radio. Throw in some drinking with fellow hockey players at Battle and Brew before the Thrashers game...and that pretty much leaves me with just stats to work with for today's post. On the one hand, it is almost ridiculous to look at team statistics after just three games. On other hand, we have a nearly an entire week before the next hockey Thrashers game, so why not?

Below I have created a table with stats for the Ottawa game, except for the final two columns which show the season Corsi Numbers (net shots fired at ES) and season Net Goal Differential (ES Goals For Average - ES Goals Against Average) for each player.

When working with a very small amount of data there can be a lot of noise (randomness) that hides the true patterns. In fact, if we look at the Corsi and Goal Differential numbers for Thrasher defenseman they give conflicting messages. According to the Corsi column Hainsey and Enstrom have the best Shots Differential and Kubina and Salmela the worst. However, if we look at the actual Goal Differential (controlling for ES ice time) Hainsey and Kubina rate as the most effective and Enstrom and Bogosian as the least effective. (stats say: Hainsey good, mixed on Enstrom.) As the team plays more games these data should become more consistent. Personally, I think Enstrom and Bogosian are playing just fine, so it could be a matter of some bad luck in a small number of games. Time will tell.

Player	G	A	Plus	SOG	EV TOI	PP TOI	SH TOI	TT TOI	Season ES Corsi	Season ES GD
Defense
Pavel Kubina	0	1	1	2	20:22	1:47	2:33	24:42	-18.2	3.41
Zach Bogosian	0	0	-1	2	20:17	1:05	1:38	23:00	-9.4	-1.05
Tobias Enstrom	0	0	-1	2	17:53	3:30	0:16	21:39	-7.2	-1.20
Ron Hainsey	1	0	1	3	19:16	0:07	2:14	21:37	-6.1	3.67
Anssi Salmela	0	0	-1	1	11:00	0:00	0:00	11:00	-15.3	1.53
Christoph Schubert	0	0	-1	0	13:38	0:00	1:39	15:17	-10.1	0.00
Forwards
Ilya Kovalchuk	1	0	1	4	18:32	3:37	0:11	22:20	-19.0	1.53
Bryan Little	0	1	1	1	16:04	2:55	0:00	18:59	-19.8	3.71
Nik Antropov	0	1	1	0	17:01	1:12	0:00	18:13	-17.3	2.47
Vyacheslav Kozlov	0	0	-1	2	14:33	3:30	0:00	18:03	-7.9	-3.16
Maxim Afinogenov	0	0	-1	3	16:17	1:40	0:00	17:57	-5.7	-4.29
Todd White	0	0	-1	1	12:27	2:55	0:44	16:06	-14.3	-4.77
Colby Armstrong	0	0	0	1	13:30	0:00	1:20	14:50	4.6	2.32
Rich Peverley	0	0	0	3	12:41	1:05	0:54	14:40	1.6	3.28
Evander Kane	0	0	0	2	12:40	0:00	1:45	14:25	-1.7	3.44
Marty Reasoner	0	0	-1	0	8:36	0:00	1:58	10:34	0.0	3.91
Chris Thorburn	0	0	-1	1	5:07	0:00	1:28	6:35	-16.8	3.36
Eric Boulton	0	0	-1	0	5:08	0:07	0:00	5:15	-17.3	3.45

If we look at the forwards, we can see that the #1 line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little are getting killed in Net Shots Differential but they have a postive Net Goal Differential. To be honest, I was very surprised to see how badly they have been outshot because my eyeballs are telling me that the Kovalchuk line is doing much better at producing sustained shifts in the Offensive Zone.

The data on the 2nd line is unambigous, they are being both out shot and out scored so far. In fact the #2 line is the ONLY Thrashers line with a negative Goal Differential so far this season. It is rare for any NHL team to have all their lines firing at once, so hopefully this line will catch fire as another one cools off.

Last year Colby Armstrong was the Thrasher Corsi MVP by a wide margin. He is off to another good start and leads the squed with a +4.6 per 60 minutes of ES TOI. In fact, the 3rd line is the only Thrasher line that has not been outshot by a significant margin. They have also out scored the opposition. This strikes me as a very good 3rd line in the NHL.

The 4th line scored in both of the first two games thanks largely to the heroics of Eric Boulton. On the other hand, they are getting killed in shots. Let's hope they can hang on and just finished the season even in Goal Differential. That would be a big plus if they can pull that off.

Waddell: Goalie Spots Wide Open

The Falconer — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

I was not able to attend the Tuesday Townhall Meeting, but Timmyf and I were at the Wednesday breakfast. Waddell took many questions, but here were the items that stood out to me.

#1 Goaltender Job Hotly Contested

Last year the Thrashers did everything they could do bolster Kari Lehtonen's confidence. Coach Anderson and Waddell both said that he was the number one and they were looking for him to step up his game. But Kari missed yet another full month of the season. Then he had back surgery late in the summer and was not as diligent with his rehab. It appears that the kid glove treatment is over for Lehtonen.

There were a couple of questions about the goaltending spot. Waddell said that Lehtonen is not yet facing shots and they are waiting for the doctors to clear him. Perhaps, even more telling than the words was the tone he used. Then towards the end the frustration became more explicit. "Even when Lehtonen is healthy, he should not assume that the #1 job is his. At this point, I don't think he has earned the right to expect that."

Even Johan Hedberg should not rest easy. Waddell said the best goalies will make the team and that "if a young goalie outplays an older goalie contracts will not decide roster spots"--last time I checked the Thrashers only have one old goalie on their camp roster. Waddell indicated that they did a lot of research on Manny Legace and that he is an established NHL goaltender with a substantial track record. He also said they were very excited about Drew McIntyre. They hotly pursued the minor UFA and offered him a 2 year deal to signal the seriousness of their interest.

One season ticket holder pointed out that it is very important for the team to get off to a good start--and they will play 5 of 6 on the road. He asked, "who do you think will be our starter Opening Night?" Waddell paused, and answered "Pavelec."

Let the goalie battle begin!

The NHL and Thrashers Financial Situation

Waddell was asked about the NHL's salary cap. He said that recent numbers from around the league showed that 20 of the NHL teams were behind on season ticket renewals and the other 10 were either flat or ahead of pace. This is the effect of a bad economy. He expects the cap to fall in the summer of 2010 (which will not be an issue for Atlanta since they are well under it).

In the case of Atlanta, a big concern this summer was luxury box renewals; 49 of the 92 of the luxury boxes at Philips Arena had 10 year leases which expired this summer. The organization was concerned about the renewal rate in a bad economy, but 30 of the 49 boxes have been sold or renewed. Waddell mentioned one other tidbit that actually shocked me. The Atlanta Hawks qualified the playoffs two years ago for their 1st appearance in a long time, and this last spring they made the playoffs and advanced to the 2nd round. Only now have the Hawks passed the Thrashers in season tickets sold! I found that amazing considering that the Hawks have a better record and a longer history in a region with SEC and ACC basketball tradition--and yet the NHL team had more STH?! Waddell said he knows many of the hockey fans in Atlanta are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see a good team and that if they want to sell more hockey tickets they have to win more hockey games on the ice.

He pointed out that the Thrashers were going to add about $8 million in payroll compared to last summer, while the big spenders were required to hold their budgets flat due to the salary cap. Another person asked about the impact on revenue sharing (hopefully a BWA reader) and Waddell said that team payroll would rise by roughly $8 million, and the Thrashers revenue sharing would fall about around $6 million. Ownership was in effect absorbing a $14 million swing by increasing player payroll this summer.

I asked him if staying under the mid point was a significant factor and he suggested they were willing to cross over that line. After the Rangers walked away from Zherdev's arbitration contract, Waddell informed the owners of a surprising opportunity to sign a talented player and they gave him the green light to have talks even though it was not in the original budget. Zherdev ended up signing with Atlant of the KHL and it appears that the dollar amount was one reason. The KHL money goes further because of a much lower tax rate and other benefits that they can offer.

Improving the PK

The Thrashers coaching staff spent their summer working hard to figure out how to fix the Thrashers PK unit. They watched video of the top 10 PK units in the NHL and looked for patterns and strategies. They also want to try spreading the PK ice time out among more players. Fans should expect to see a bigger PK rotation and players such as Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Colby Armstrong and Rich Peverley will see more PK minutes in an effort to keep everyone fresh. (I hope to have a post on this topic soon.)

Ilya Kovalchuk Contract

The Thrashers and Kovalchuk are not discussing a "lifetime contract" ala Hossa's recent deal. The Thrashers don't want a front -or back-loaded contract. And Kovalchuk isn't willing to sign a lifetime contract because he hopes to play perhaps as long as age 40--which would be 13 more years! It sounded like they were talking a term somewhere in between 5 and 8 years, which would then allow Kovalchuk to sign another deal if he desires to play into his late 30s.

Carl Klingberg Update

Someone asked about the Thrashers European players and the European Scout was present and mentioned four players who could contribute at the NHL level: Klingberg, Lasu, Zubarev and the ever elusive Nikulin. Klingberg was impressing while playing in a pre-season Swedish Elite League tournament where he led everyone in goal scoring. It appears both he and Lasu will play at the senior level this year.

Olympic Schedule

NHL teams will play 82 regular season games in 180 days instead of the 185 days used last season. The games will be compressed and (hopefully) this might benefit a younger team like Atlanta. He also mentioned that the overall team fitness in the strength and cardio areas were the best in team history. Slava Kozlov in his late 30s had the best VO2 number of anyone on the roster. "Any player who wants to see what a professional athlete looks like should just watch Kozlov." (I can make a good guess as to who he was thinking of when he said "any player".)

Improving the Thrashers Penalty Kill: Stay out of the Box

The Falconer — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:06:01 -0000

Anyone who watched the Thrashers last season knows that the Penalty Kill was just a disaster zone all last season. The Thrashers allowed a staggering 88 goals against while short handed (league leading Minnesota allowed just 36 PPGA last season). The PK unit alone gave up more than 1/3 of all of the team's Goals Against last season. The PK% was dead last for most of the year and ended up 29th in a 30 team league. At Even Strength, the Thrashers were a net -10 in Goal Differential last year, and on special teams they were a net -16, for a combined -26. To make the playoffs they need to get that net Goal Differential to zero or better.

The simplest way to cut down on Power Play Goals Against is to stay out of the box. Unfortunately the Thrashers were not very good at that either. The team finished 25th (out of 30) in minor penalties taken, and they finished 24th in number of times short handed. Let's assume for the moment that the Thrashers show absolutely no improvement in their PK% but simply cut down on the number of penalties taken. If they went from 366 times short handed (24th worst) to 330 times short handed (13th) that would result in NINE fewer PK goals allowed. In other words, if the Thrashers simply display more discipline--that factor alone would get them 1/3 of the improvement they need to make the playoffs.

First let's look at the forwards. Last year the Thrashers had NOBODY among the the NHL leaders in penalties drawn. I suspect that Kovalchuk is still not getting as many calls as other speedy stars because of his reputation for diving when he was younger. The Thrashers best player in terms of net penalty differential last season was Bryan Little who put the team on the PP 13 more times than he put his team on the PK.

In the table below, I have everyone ranked by their "Discipline Rate" or their rate of minor penalties against given their ES ice time. It is probably not so surprising to see a tough guy like Eric Boulton at the top of this list. Colby Armstrong another physical guy also takes many penalties, but unlike Boulton he also draws quite a few himself. The biggest surprise was seeing Slava Kozlov so high. I don't remember him taking a lot of undisciplined calls. I do remember him taking penalties to prevent scoring chances from time to time. (Note: the totals for Christensen and Williams are their full season numbers.)

Player	Games Played	Even Strength Minutes	Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	Net Penalties	Penalties Taken Rate (per 60 Minutes)	Penalties Drawn Rate (per 60 Minutes)
ERIC BOULTON	76	7.48	22	12	-10	2.3	1.3
COLIN STUART	33	9.46	8	10	2	1.5	1.9
COLBY ARMSTRONG	82	12.37	21	18	-3	1.2	1.1
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	82	11.91	18	14	-4	1.1	0.9
CHRIS THORBURN	82	9.42	13	14	1	1	1.1
JOSEPH CRABB	29	9.86	5	5	0	1	1
JIM SLATER	60	8.47	8	11	3	0.9	1.3
RICH PEVERLEY	66	11.73	11	9	-2	0.9	0.7
MARTY REASONER	79	11.53	13	21	8	0.9	1.4
ERIK CHRISTENSEN	64	11.15	10	11	1	0.8	0.9
ERIC PERRIN	78	9.99	9	15	6	0.7	1.2
TODD WHITE	82	12.39	11	11	0	0.6	0.6
JASON WILLIAMS	80	12.16	9	13	4	0.6	0.8
ILYA KOVALCHUK	79	14.87	9	17	8	0.5	0.9
BRYAN LITTLE	79	12.18	8	21	13	0.5	1.3

When it comes to penalties the defenseman are the key guys. They match up against the other super stars and at times they must take a penalty to prevent a high quality scoring chance. If you look at the table below you can see that the worst penalty takers per minute played were Valabik, Schneider, Exelby, Bogosian and Havelid.

Player	Games Played	Even Strength Minutes	Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	Net Penalties	Penalties Taken Rate (per 60 Minutes)	Penalties Drawn Rate (per 60 Minutes)
BORIS VALABIK	50	13.05	28	7	-21	2.6	0.6
MATHIEU SCHNEIDER	67	15.48	29	3	-26	1.7	0.2
GARNET EXELBY	59	14.21	19	3	-16	1.4	0.2
ZACH BOGOSIAN	47	14.62	14	10	-4	1.2	0.9
NICLAS HAVELID	78	16.15	21	8	-13	1	0.4
TOBIAS ENSTROM	82	15.89	20	19	-1	0.9	0.9
ANSSI SALMELA	26	12.24	4	5	1	0.8	0.9
NATHAN OYSTRICK	53	13.67	10	7	-3	0.8	0.6
RON HAINSEY	81	14.97	11	4	-7	0.5	0.2

At first glance, it looks like happy days are ahead--three of the worst five have departed the team! However, some caution is in order. Valabik will likely see more minutes as the "tough guy" on defense and he will probably replace some of Exelby's PIMs. New comer Pavel Kubina posted numbers that are almost identical to Nic Havelid last year, so no big change there. Mathieu Schneider's departure could be the biggest gain for the Thrashers in terms of cutting down on PIMs against. The key will be how Zach Bogosian handles playing more minutes against the top scoring forwards in the NHL. If Bogosian can contribute solid defense and stay out of the box that could save the Thrashers some goals against just by keeping them off the PK.

I plugged this data into a spread sheet and made some educated guesses about each defenseman's ice time for the upcoming season. If each player has a similar penalty pattern and if my ice time guesses are accurate--then I estimate the Thrashers could cut the number of Short Handed situations by 22 next year just based on changes to the defense. Even with a brutal PK% of .76, cutting down on 22 PK situations would save 5-6 Goals Against.

Conclusion: Avoiding penalties through improved discipline is not enough to get the Thrashers into the playoffs this upcoming season. But it could get the Thrashers about one quarter of the improvement that they need. To me the recipe for getting into the post-season looks like this: 1) improved discipline--25% of required improvement; 2) improve PK% of just below NHL average--50% of required improvement; and 3) improve ES goal differential by playing the other end more--25% of required improvement. If the Thrashers accomplish all three of those things and get their Total Goal Differential down to zero, they can get into the playoffs.