SB Nation - Jim Slater

Which Thrashers Are Playing Well at Even Strength?

The Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

The Thrashers have excelled at Even Strength so far this season. After the goaltenders, the biggest reason for improvement in ES situations are the two players acquired mid-summer. Nik Antropov has been the Thrashers best forward at ES and Pavel Kubina has been the best defenseman at ES. I've been critical of Don Waddell's free agent acquisitions in past summers but he hit a home run with these two guys. They were precisely what the team needed and as a consequence the Thrashers are much improved.

Forwards

The coaching staff might not like to use terms like "first line" or "third line" but the ES Time On Ice (TOI) paint a rather clear picture. The Russian speaking line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Afinogenov is clearly #1 in ice time. The next two lines are pretty even Kozlov-White-Little and Kane-Peverley-Armstrong. The 4th line (Boulton-Slater-Thorburn) with Marty Reasoner going back and forth between the 3rd and 4th lines.

Who is facing the toughest opposition? According the Gabe Desjardin's Quality of Competition measure (opponent's Relative Goal Differential at Even Strength) Todd White, Bryan Little Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk face the best players, while Boulton, Slater and Thorburn are sheltered.

Who is most effective? At even strength the name of the game is winning on the scoreboard. I have ranked all the players below according to their Goal Differential (GFA-GAA) per 60 minutes of ES TOI. Antropov is your clear leader. Why have the Thrashers gotten so much better this season? Well look at that list of players and you can see that 4 of the 5 most effective ES players were not on this roster one year ago today. Peverley was added in last January an Antropov via Free Agency, Kane at the NHL Draft and Afinogenov was a late NHL Camp tryout. Every single one of those moves has worked out very well!

Another measure to compare players is Desjardins' "Rating" column which compares each players net Goal Differential when that player is on the ice to when that player is off the ice. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk averages a +.59 Goal Differential when he is on the ice, but his Rating is just .01 which means that the Atlanta Thrashers post a+.58 when Kovalchuk is off the ice at ES. On the other hand, the Thrashers do much better when Nik Antropov is on the ice than when he is off it. In fact, when Antropov is off the ice the Thrashers have been out-scored at ES this season--he is only forward for whom that is true.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
NIK ANTROPOV	26	14.6	0.00	29	16	4.59	2.53	2.06	2.28
MARTY REASONER	26	9.2	0.00	14	7	3.52	1.76	1.76	1.57
EVANDER KANE	26	12.1	0.00	20	13	3.81	2.48	1.33	1.13
RICH PEVERLEY	26	12.9	-0.03	20	14	3.57	2.50	1.07	0.79
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	26	14.4	0.01	24	18	3.85	2.89	0.96	0.67
BRYAN LITTLE	24	12.6	0.09	16	12	3.17	2.38	0.79	0.64
ILYA KOVALCHUK	20	15.1	0.07	17	14	3.37	2.77	0.59	0.01
COLBY ARMSTRONG	25	11.6	-0.02	12	12	2.48	2.48	0.00	-0.49
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	26	11.8	0.07	12	14	2.34	2.73	-0.39	-1.21
ERIC BOULTON	24	6.2	-0.09	4	6	1.62	2.43	-0.81	-1.31
CHRIS THORBURN	26	6.7	-0.06	4	6	1.38	2.07	-0.69	-1.40
TODD WHITE	26	12.0	0.13	10	15	1.93	2.89	-0.96	-1.99
JIM SLATER	11	8.4	-0.07	1	5	0.65	3.26	-2.61	-4.94

On defense Pavel Kubina has played like an All-Star minus big gaudy point totals.The Toronto Maple Leafs dumped Kubina's salary so they could sign Mike Komisarek, but I suspect that Kubina is having a better season than Komisarek is. When Kubina is on the ice in Even Skater situations the Thrashers have outscored the opposition by an astonishing 29-11 margin. Wow! When Pavel Kubina is off the ice at Even Strength the Thrashers have been outscored this season--Kubina is the only defenseman for which that statement is true. According to Desjardins Quality of Competition rating, Kubina is also facing the toughest opponents every night (with Ron Hainsey right behind him). Kubina makes some big coin ($5 million) and if he departs as a UFA this summer he will leave a giant hole.

Despite putting up some big goal totals this season Zach Bogosian has been exploited at times during even strength play. His 3.25 GAA is not very good. All three of the 3rd pairing defensemen appear to drag down the team's offense when they are on the ice (compare at their GFA to the top four guys).

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
PAVEL KUBINA	25	16.8	0.08	29	11	4.14	1.57	2.57	3.15
TOBIAS ENSTROM	26	16.3	0.02	26	17	3.69	2.41	1.28	1.20
ANSSI SALMELA	15	13.0	-0.04	7	6	2.15	1.85	0.31	-0.17
RON HAINSEY	24	15.6	0.07	19	18	3.04	2.88	0.16	-0.34
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	24	13.5	-0.04	11	13	2.04	2.41	-0.37	-1.14
ZACH BOGOSIAN	26	17.8	0.04	21	25	2.73	3.25	-0.52	-1.67
MARK POPOVIC	16	11.7	-0.09	7	10	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Conclusion

The Thrashers are playing better because they are better. The new players that were added this summer (Kubina, Antropov, Afinogenov, Kane) all rank near the top at their respective positions.

Analysis: Who is Playing Well on the Thrashers PK Unit

The Falconer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:15 -0000

One year ago the Thrashers PK allowed 88 goals against. So far this year, the team has allowed just 17 on 107 times being shorthanded.

The data in the table below in ONLY for PK during 5 on 4 disadvantage (excludes 5 on 3 situations). Among the forwards, the coaching staff is leaning most heavily on Reasoner, Peverley, Thorburn and Armstrong. This represents a major change from last season when the top 4 PK forwards included Reasoner, Perrin, Slater and C. Stuart.

Who has been most effective so far? When looking at Even Strength situations I put a lot of weight on Goal Differential, but on the PK scoring is an afterthought (and often involves a lot of luck), so I put greater emphasis on the PK GAA (Goals Against Average). Bottom line, the job of the PK unit is to prevent a goal against.

In the table below I have ranked all the Thrasher forwards who average at least half a minute on the PK in the order of their PK GAA. Rich Peverley has not only lead the Thrashers in points on offense but he currently sports the lowest PK GAA of any forward who plays the PK on a regular basis. Right behind Peverley is Chris Thorburn who has excelled so far this season after being given a bigger role in killing penalties. In the middle of the pack we find surprising rookie Evander Kane, Colby Armstrong and veteran PKer Marty Reasoner. Trailing behind in effectiveness are Jim Slater and Todd White who have each seen their PK minutes decline this year.

Forward	POS	GP	TOI/60	GFON	GAON	GFA	GAA	G Diff
RICH PEVERLEY	C	25	2.47	2	3	1.94	2.91	-0.97
CHRIS THORBURN	C	25	2.36	2	3	2.03	3.05	-1.02
EVANDER KANE	C	25	1.63	1	3	1.48	4.43	-2.95
COLBY ARMSTRONG	RW	24	2.23	1	5	1.12	5.61	-4.49
MARTY REASONER	C	25	3.35	2	10	1.43	7.16	-5.73
JIM SLATER	C	11	1.29	0	2	0.00	8.43	-8.43
TODD WHITE	C	25	0.48	0	2	0.00	10.00	-10.00

On defense, the guys receiving the heaviest PK burden are Ron Hainsey, Pavel Kubina and Zach Bogosian in that order. Last season Tobias Enstrom was the Thashers leading PK defenseman but this year he has seen his PK TOI cut back significantly with the arrival of Kubina and Schubert and with more minutes going to Bogosian.

In his reduced role Enstrom has been nothing short of perfect. In fact, so far the this season when killing 5 on 4 penalties the Thrashers have actually outscored the opposition 1-0 when Enstrom is on the ice--that's rather amazing.

Among the non-Enstrom defenseman new comer Pavel Kubina has the best PK GAA with Popovic right behind him. Bogosian and Hainsey bring up the rear. It is worth noting that the spread among the defensemen is much smaller than it is among the forwards, which suggests that all of the defenseman have been reasonably effective on the PK so far this year.

Defense	POS	GP	TOI/60	GFON	GAON	GFA	GAA	G Diff
TOBIAS ENSTROM	D	25	0.86	1	0	2.78	0.00	2.78
PAVEL KUBINA	D	24	3.02	1	5	0.83	4.14	-3.32
MARK POPOVIC	D	16	1.72	2	2	4.35	4.35	0.00
ZACH BOGOSIAN	D	25	2.87	3	6	2.51	5.02	-2.51
RON HAINSEY	D	23	3.87	0	9	0.00	6.07	-6.07
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	D	23	2.13	1	6	1.22	7.33	-6.11

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

Thrashers participating in MOvember

James Mirtle — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:49:13 -0000

Scary 'stache for a 19-year-old on Mr. Zach Bogosian:

Atlanta Thrashers Fans, join Thrashers Zach Bogosian, Mark Popovic and Jim Slater and coaches John Anderson, Randy Cunneyworth and Todd Nelson on their MOvember journeys!

Any other teams taking part in this?

UPDATE The Wild are.

UPDATE This movement gets better as we go:

How is Coach Anderson Using His Roster?

The Falconer — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 13:51:00 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

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Last season, I wrote about Zone Shift and Shift Start location (Desjardins has a description here). Now that we have a few games worth of data, I thought it might be interesting to see how Coach Anderson is using his roster. Shifts that begin in the offensive zone are the easiest--they are much more likely to lead to a shot on goal by the Thrashers. On the other hand, if you start a shift in your own end, that faceoff results in a shot against 25% of the time. Not only do defensive zone faceoffs lead to more shots against, they lead to HIGH QUALITY shots against. Desjardins ran the numbers this summer and found that shots that are fired with a few seconds of a DZ faceoff go into the net at the same rate as shots fired on a 5 on 3 Power Play. In other words, losing a DZ faceoff is the equivalent of giving your opponent a 5 second two man advantage--that's a big effect! If you're the coach you have to game plan these situations.

I have created a table below that shows the breakdown of each player's Offensive Zone Face Offs (OF FO), Defensive Zone Face Offs (DZ FO), and Neutral Zone (NZ FO) in the first three games. The final column is the percentage of faceoffs that are "tough" because they are in the Defensive Zone.

Among Thrasher Forwards, the 3rd line is getting the "tough" draws. Peverley, Kane, Armstrong and Reasoner. Despite starting in the "bad" end of the ice, Armstrong and Peverley are the only two Thrashers forwards with a positive Corsi (Net Shots Attempted) so far this season. That is very impressive. The other thing this tells us is that John Anderson knows how to deploy his players. The right guys are being sent over the boards to do the dirty work that is crucial to winning hockey games.

Who is being protected? Not the 1st line. The Kovalcuk-Antropov-Little line is right around the team average in terms of their share of DZ face offs. The 2nd line comes in slighty under the team average, but it is the 4th line that is REALLY being kept away from DZ face offs. Forget that bluster about the Thrashers having the "best 4th line in hockey"--Coach Anderson doesn't trust them to handle the tough draws in their own end. Boulton and Thorburn have seen just 4 DZ draws over three games. So far, the 3rd line is taking the 4th line's share of DZ draws.

ATL Forwards	OZ FO	DZ FO	NZ FO	Total FO	DZ % of all FO
RICH PEVERLEY	4	12	9	25	0.480
EVANDER KANE	3	11	9	23	0.478
COLBY ARMSTRONG	3	9	8	20	0.450
MARTY REASONER	5	7	4	16	0.438
BRYAN LITTLE	10	13	20	43	0.302
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ILYA KOVALCHUK	10	13	21	44	0.295
NIK ANTROPOV	9	11	21	41	0.268
TODD WHITE	13	11	19	43	0.256
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	12	10	18	40	0.250
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	13	10	18	41	0.244
ERIC BOULTON	4	2	10	16	0.125
CHRIS THORBURN	4	2	9	15	0.133
JIM SLATER	0	0	8	8	0.000
ATL Defense
RON HAINSEY	17	18	19	54	0.333
PAVEL KUBINA	16	17	21	54	0.315
MARK POPOVIC	2	4	7	13	0.308
Thrashers Team Avg.	90	111	174	375	0.296
ANSSI SALMELA	6	8	14	28	0.286
TOBIAS ENSTROM	6	12	24	42	0.286
ZACH BOGOSIAN	7	11	25	43	0.256
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	6	4	6	16	0.250

At defense we see much less of a spread than we did with the forward lines. Every D man falls somewhere between 33%-25% DZ draws and the team average is right at 30%. The Hainsey-Kubina pairing is getting the most dirty work, and like the Armstrong line, they have managed to post a positive shot differential despite a poor starting position. Bogosian and Schubert have received the most favorable ES shift starting locations.

Conclusion

It is encouraging to see that the guys who have been given the worst starting positions have ended up with a positive Corsi Number (Net Shots Attempted). It is also encouraging to see that Coach Anderson has had the right players on the ice in those situations. What is discouraging is that the guys getting the better shift start location are not doing more with their territorial advantage--that must improve for the Thrashers to make the playoffs this year.

Thrashers - Nashville Home Game Analysis

The Falconer — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 15:13:28 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers forward Illya Kovalchuk works the puck against the Carolina Hurricanes during the third period of an NHL preseason hockey game, Monday, Sept. 21, 2009, in Atlanta. Atlanta won 4-2. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Defense Ice Time

Forward Ice Time

The Predators brought their 2nd line, but left their 1st line back home. They brought pretty good defensemen as well. Probably the closest thing to a game featuring a balanced lineup so far in the pre-season.

Team discipline was a problem as the Predators ended up with 12:40 minutes of Power Play ice to the Thrashers 4:10 with the man advantage. The total shots are rather misleading in this context because of the special teams disparity. The Thrashers were certainly even of better in the scoring chances department at even strength.

One reason the Thrashers ended up short is that guys took penalties standing up for teammates after some borderline hits (Tootoo was involved--shockingly!). Kovalchuk and Enstrom both got tagged and Kubina and Throburn went to the box while trying to send a message. Valabik took a minor after leveling a guy who came into Pavelec's crease. Discipline is going to be important in the regular season, but it is a good sign that players care about their teammates--that hasn't always been the case in Atlanta. I've seen some bad hits where nobody did anything to send a message. It is yet another sign that this locker room is good and has fewer cliques than in the past.

**Falconer's take:

Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little Line: Looks ready to go to me. Ilya is just flying around in the pre-season and looks extremely excited about this year. I saw more sustained offensive zone shifts from this line again, which is another positive sign. Heading into this year, I was worried Bryan Little might have trouble matching his numbers of last year--but Ilya and Nik seem to get all of the attention of opposing defensemen leaving him wide open to shoot.

Enstrom-Bogosian: They looked like they were both in mid-season form (they were both +3 in the game). They played extremely well and read off each other like they have played together for years. The biggest danger might be that the coaching staff overplays them early and wears them out, but they are both young and have lots of energy.

Nathan Oystrick: Made a really bad decision to pinch up late in the 3rd period and missed. This left his D partner Pavel Kubina alone defending a 2>1 and the open man scored on Pavelec to cut the lead down to 5-3 and it gave Predators new life. I know Anderson likes offense from his D, but with just under 4 minutes left and a 2 goal lead you don't need to make low probability plays.

Mark Popovic: I noticed him much less last night, but looking at the ice time he also played a lot less. He made a mistake at one point but I can't remember now what it was.

Boris Valabik: His skating looks so much better this fall it is very noticeable. However, he got blown around a couple of times in this game. And he can't go to the penalty box alone so often. He led all Thrashers with 6:42 on the PK.

Jim Slater: I've been hard on him in the past, but he's looked pretty good in both pre-season games. With his hustle he got a loose puck to Josh Gratton who scored from way over on the wall for the 1st goal of the game.

Tim Stapleton: I suspect he will start the year in Chicago, but he could be called up if the Thrashers have an injury on a scoring line. He made a terrific pass to set up Josh Gratton's 2nd goal. It was a 2>1 rush and the opposing defenseman went down to block off the passing lane. Stapleton kept going and the moment he was clear of the sprawled out D-man's skate he made a hard pass right to the slot which Gratton put past the goalie. For my money Stapleon looks like he has the puck skills to jump in and not hold back a scoring line. His lack of size makes it unlikely he would end up on a checking line.

Maxim Afinogenov: He looked a little raw early. He lost the puck twice on his 1st or 2nd shift of the game. Once he got his feet under him the NHL speed was apparent. He had one of his typical rushes where he flies up the ice, makes some stickhandling moves, shot, glove save.

Ondrej Pavelec: Still has problems overplaying the puck once or twice a game--he got lucky both times. One Nashville player mishandled the puck and on the other his D-man got to the rebound first. The 3rd Nashville goal, which gave them renewed life in a blow out at 17:52 of the 3rd, probably should not have gone in. Maybe I'm being too harsh because it was a 2>1 pass right to the slot.

Evander Kane: He looked much better last night than when they played the Predators one week ago. He looked more confident and fluid in his skating. He had a couple of shot attempts. He still has a lot to learn in terms of exploiting NHL defenseman, but you can see that he has the foundation to be a very exciting player down the road.

Josh Gratton: Could he really steal Eric Boulton's job? I'm not an expert on fighters, but he showed some very nice hands last night. On both plays, the passer deserves some credit, but Gratton did his part and finished. The 1st one was a bad goal for the Nashville goalie, but the 2nd goal was a nice bang-bang play at the net.

Joey Crabb Vs Dan Fritsche: These two guys are probably battling for the same job. Both were +1 and got some time on the PK. I don't see a huge difference between them, but I liked Crabb a little better last night.

Pavel Kubina: I'm very impressed by how he can lean on people and not get called for interference. He's big and he is constantly in the way of opposing forwards. He must be annoying as hell to play against. I just hope regular season refs don't start calling him for that stuff.

**Tim's Take:

I figured I'd chime in with a few additional comments. Falconer and I seemed to have different impressions of Boris Valabik, for one.

Boris Valabik: Yes, his skating looks better than last year, but he was barely able to keep up out there. Rather than play D deep in the Thrashers' defensive-zone, he seemed like he was always trying to hang by the face-off circle. This was giving him an advantage in getting up to the neutral zone with the team, but he was leaving his defensive partner all alone near the net. I think Boris has the right tools to play in the NHL, but I'm not sure if he's a good fit for our system this year.

Evander Kane: We all expect rookie mistakes, but what I saw from Evander Kane last night was important: he looks like he can keep up with NHL-sized players. He played strong on the puck, and while he got pushed off a few times, he'd go right back after it. He has a tenacity that will help him adjust to the NHL game faster. We will hopefully get to see him for the whole year, but at the very least, I expect a 9-game tryout.

Maxim Afinogenov: I was at the game with my girlfriend and we were sitting next to a couple people who were at their first hockey game. Every time Max got the puck, they were oooh-ing and aaah-ing. I'm not saying that we should sign Max because he's an exciting player, but for a city that needs to create some excitement around hockey, this guy is a heck of a lot of fun to watch. Sign him for Todd White-money (low-to-middle $2 million range) and I'm satisfied. I'd play him with Kane and White or Peverley and watch them zoom all over the place ... *or* ... play him with Peverley and Armstrong (a guy who can go hard to the net and finish the chances that Maxim generates.)

Josh Gratton: A lot of folks say we have the best 4th line in the NHL. They say that because our 4th line buzzes around and generates a lot of chances. This is true... but generating chances means nothing if you can't finish them. Josh Gratton showed an ability to finish chances last night. Conventional wisdom is that he's challenging for Boulton's spot... it'll be interesting to see where this goes.

Ondrej Pavelec: He looks ready to go. It'll be interesting to see how Legace plays on Friday (or Sunday).

Enstrom-Bogosian: Did you think these guys were just a flash-in-the-pan? Guess what? They aren't.

Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little: Those are three names you'll be hearing from our PA guy in scoring announcements... a lot... I will say, though, that Kovalchuk seemed somewhat tentative to shoot at times. I know he's got some scorers on his line now, but Kovy, please, for the love of God, SHOOT!

That's it from me for now, but I hope to have more to say if/when there are some cuts today. So far everybody is at the morning skate, so it's up in the air as to whether they make cuts.

ThrashersTraining Camp Job Battles Narrow

The Falconer — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:15:17 -0000

After two pre-season games the Thrashers have cut down their camp roster to 37 players who are still in the mix for NHL roster spots. I'm going to assume that these 9 forwards have NHL jobs: Kovalchuk, Kozlov, White, Antropov, Peverley, Little, Armstrong and Reasoner. So what does that leave?

Forwards: 4 starting spots and 1 or 2 bench slots.

Incumbents:

Challengers:

Thoughts: All of the incumbents have at least a one year NHL contracts and I would surprised if they failed to make the final roster. This last summer I wrote about the "myth of the best 4th line" and suggested that the Thrashers could find better players to flesh out the bottom of their forward ranks. But the Thrashers choose to re-sign Slater and Thorburn which indicates they think more favorably about that line than I do. If the incumbent 4th liners are all safe, that really leaves just one active roster spot and one or two bench slots available.

How might this race shake out? Personally, I've seen very little out of Dan Fritsche in practice or exhibition play, the guy looks like he's lost his mojo. Gratton is probably the only person really challenging Boulton for the tough guy slot, but I think the organization values Boulton's locker room presence enough that he keeps his spot. Machacek looks pretty good but he might still benefit from receiving bigger minutes in the AHL. Evander Kane has looked OK in pre-season but hasn't really amazed. I've already laid out the case for returning him to the WHL--the fact that he's not scoring in pre-season could make this decision easier.

That narrows it down to some veterans: Afinogenov, Crabb, Stapleton, Krog. Personally, I find Maxim Afinogenov incredibly frustrating to watch play. He has amazing stick handling skills and good speed but it seems like he rarely turns those attributes into goals. Still if he's willing to sign for a low price, it would be a low risk gamble with some upside potential. My guess is that if Evander Kane goes back to the WHL, Afinogenov might make the NHL roster if the price is right.

The other three guys--Stapleton, Krog and Crabb--are all AHL veterans who are no longer developing as prospects. They are all a bit undersized by NHL standards but have solid puck skills (Krog, Stapleton) or speed (Crabb, Stapleton). If the Thrashers were to keep Afinogenov and bump Peverley to the 3rd line, any one of these AHL veterans could step into 13th forward spot and it would not harm their development as it would a younger kid.

Prediction: My gut instinct is that Coach Anderson will give Jason Krog that 13th forward spot and one more crack at playing in the NHL. Krog and Anderson had some great seasons together in Chicago and if anyone knows what Jason brings to the table--it is Anderson.

Defense

The top four defensemen (Bogosian, Enstrom, Hainsey and Kubina) appear set and that leaves two starting positions and a bench slot up for grabs.

Incumbents

Challengers

I would cross Vernance off the list first. He looked totally out of his league in Nashville and I'm surprised that he survived the most recent round of cuts. I haven't seen Welch in game action, but like Dan Fritsche you have to really look hard to notice him in training camp. I'm a big Grant Lewis supporter, but he's clearly still recovering from his significant knee injury. Postma probably needs a full season in the AHL playing against bigger men.

That leaves 3 incumbents and 2 challengers battling it out for 3 slots. So far Kulda and Popovic both have played well and gotten the attention of Coach Anderson. I would not be surprised if either were on the team opening day. The biggest problem for Kulda is that he can be sent down that gives the Thrashers a quality first call up should injuries strike. With Popovic they have to fish or cut bait soon--which gives him more leverage in some respects.

The real question is who would they knock off? I can't see Valabik going anywhere. His size and physicality are badly needed on this roster. I do think that both Salmela and Oystrick could be vulnerable to losing their spot. Oystrick in particular looked very nervous and rough at times in the Nashville pre-season game. Perhaps, it was just initial nerves but if he continues to struggle in pre-season he could end up on the outside looking in. Salmela was ridiculously non-physical in Nashville allowing opposing forwards to do pretty much whatever they wanted. He can't continue to play like that and hold a NHL D spot.

Summary: If Oystrick and Salmela can play like they did at the end of last season, they should hold off Popovic. The next few games will be crucial.

Goaltender

The incumbent Lehtonen is hurt yet again and his lack of professionalism is irritating a team that needs someone reliable in the nets. The Opening Night starting job is a free for all. Ondrej Pavelec played a very strong game in Tampa on Friday. MacIntyre played a strong period in Nashville. Manny Legace is a NHL pro with a long track record. Johan Hedberg is the sentimental favorite of many, but is under heavy pressure this camp. The Thrashers have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs assuming they get solid goaltending most nights. If Legace looks better than Hedberg, the team would be wise to put keep him, skill not likability must determine this contest.

Expectation: Lehtonen starts the season on IR, with Pavelec and Legace on the opening night roster.

Waddell: Goalie Spots Wide Open

The Falconer — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

I was not able to attend the Tuesday Townhall Meeting, but Timmyf and I were at the Wednesday breakfast. Waddell took many questions, but here were the items that stood out to me.

#1 Goaltender Job Hotly Contested

Last year the Thrashers did everything they could do bolster Kari Lehtonen's confidence. Coach Anderson and Waddell both said that he was the number one and they were looking for him to step up his game. But Kari missed yet another full month of the season. Then he had back surgery late in the summer and was not as diligent with his rehab. It appears that the kid glove treatment is over for Lehtonen.

There were a couple of questions about the goaltending spot. Waddell said that Lehtonen is not yet facing shots and they are waiting for the doctors to clear him. Perhaps, even more telling than the words was the tone he used. Then towards the end the frustration became more explicit. "Even when Lehtonen is healthy, he should not assume that the #1 job is his. At this point, I don't think he has earned the right to expect that."

Even Johan Hedberg should not rest easy. Waddell said the best goalies will make the team and that "if a young goalie outplays an older goalie contracts will not decide roster spots"--last time I checked the Thrashers only have one old goalie on their camp roster. Waddell indicated that they did a lot of research on Manny Legace and that he is an established NHL goaltender with a substantial track record. He also said they were very excited about Drew McIntyre. They hotly pursued the minor UFA and offered him a 2 year deal to signal the seriousness of their interest.

One season ticket holder pointed out that it is very important for the team to get off to a good start--and they will play 5 of 6 on the road. He asked, "who do you think will be our starter Opening Night?" Waddell paused, and answered "Pavelec."

Let the goalie battle begin!

The NHL and Thrashers Financial Situation

Waddell was asked about the NHL's salary cap. He said that recent numbers from around the league showed that 20 of the NHL teams were behind on season ticket renewals and the other 10 were either flat or ahead of pace. This is the effect of a bad economy. He expects the cap to fall in the summer of 2010 (which will not be an issue for Atlanta since they are well under it).

In the case of Atlanta, a big concern this summer was luxury box renewals; 49 of the 92 of the luxury boxes at Philips Arena had 10 year leases which expired this summer. The organization was concerned about the renewal rate in a bad economy, but 30 of the 49 boxes have been sold or renewed. Waddell mentioned one other tidbit that actually shocked me. The Atlanta Hawks qualified the playoffs two years ago for their 1st appearance in a long time, and this last spring they made the playoffs and advanced to the 2nd round. Only now have the Hawks passed the Thrashers in season tickets sold! I found that amazing considering that the Hawks have a better record and a longer history in a region with SEC and ACC basketball tradition--and yet the NHL team had more STH?! Waddell said he knows many of the hockey fans in Atlanta are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see a good team and that if they want to sell more hockey tickets they have to win more hockey games on the ice.

He pointed out that the Thrashers were going to add about $8 million in payroll compared to last summer, while the big spenders were required to hold their budgets flat due to the salary cap. Another person asked about the impact on revenue sharing (hopefully a BWA reader) and Waddell said that team payroll would rise by roughly $8 million, and the Thrashers revenue sharing would fall about around $6 million. Ownership was in effect absorbing a $14 million swing by increasing player payroll this summer.

I asked him if staying under the mid point was a significant factor and he suggested they were willing to cross over that line. After the Rangers walked away from Zherdev's arbitration contract, Waddell informed the owners of a surprising opportunity to sign a talented player and they gave him the green light to have talks even though it was not in the original budget. Zherdev ended up signing with Atlant of the KHL and it appears that the dollar amount was one reason. The KHL money goes further because of a much lower tax rate and other benefits that they can offer.

Improving the PK

The Thrashers coaching staff spent their summer working hard to figure out how to fix the Thrashers PK unit. They watched video of the top 10 PK units in the NHL and looked for patterns and strategies. They also want to try spreading the PK ice time out among more players. Fans should expect to see a bigger PK rotation and players such as Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Colby Armstrong and Rich Peverley will see more PK minutes in an effort to keep everyone fresh. (I hope to have a post on this topic soon.)

Ilya Kovalchuk Contract

The Thrashers and Kovalchuk are not discussing a "lifetime contract" ala Hossa's recent deal. The Thrashers don't want a front -or back-loaded contract. And Kovalchuk isn't willing to sign a lifetime contract because he hopes to play perhaps as long as age 40--which would be 13 more years! It sounded like they were talking a term somewhere in between 5 and 8 years, which would then allow Kovalchuk to sign another deal if he desires to play into his late 30s.

Carl Klingberg Update

Someone asked about the Thrashers European players and the European Scout was present and mentioned four players who could contribute at the NHL level: Klingberg, Lasu, Zubarev and the ever elusive Nikulin. Klingberg was impressing while playing in a pre-season Swedish Elite League tournament where he led everyone in goal scoring. It appears both he and Lasu will play at the senior level this year.

Olympic Schedule

NHL teams will play 82 regular season games in 180 days instead of the 185 days used last season. The games will be compressed and (hopefully) this might benefit a younger team like Atlanta. He also mentioned that the overall team fitness in the strength and cardio areas were the best in team history. Slava Kozlov in his late 30s had the best VO2 number of anyone on the roster. "Any player who wants to see what a professional athlete looks like should just watch Kozlov." (I can make a good guess as to who he was thinking of when he said "any player".)

Improving the Thrashers Penalty Kill: Stay out of the Box

The Falconer — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:06:01 -0000

Anyone who watched the Thrashers last season knows that the Penalty Kill was just a disaster zone all last season. The Thrashers allowed a staggering 88 goals against while short handed (league leading Minnesota allowed just 36 PPGA last season). The PK unit alone gave up more than 1/3 of all of the team's Goals Against last season. The PK% was dead last for most of the year and ended up 29th in a 30 team league. At Even Strength, the Thrashers were a net -10 in Goal Differential last year, and on special teams they were a net -16, for a combined -26. To make the playoffs they need to get that net Goal Differential to zero or better.

The simplest way to cut down on Power Play Goals Against is to stay out of the box. Unfortunately the Thrashers were not very good at that either. The team finished 25th (out of 30) in minor penalties taken, and they finished 24th in number of times short handed. Let's assume for the moment that the Thrashers show absolutely no improvement in their PK% but simply cut down on the number of penalties taken. If they went from 366 times short handed (24th worst) to 330 times short handed (13th) that would result in NINE fewer PK goals allowed. In other words, if the Thrashers simply display more discipline--that factor alone would get them 1/3 of the improvement they need to make the playoffs.

First let's look at the forwards. Last year the Thrashers had NOBODY among the the NHL leaders in penalties drawn. I suspect that Kovalchuk is still not getting as many calls as other speedy stars because of his reputation for diving when he was younger. The Thrashers best player in terms of net penalty differential last season was Bryan Little who put the team on the PP 13 more times than he put his team on the PK.

In the table below, I have everyone ranked by their "Discipline Rate" or their rate of minor penalties against given their ES ice time. It is probably not so surprising to see a tough guy like Eric Boulton at the top of this list. Colby Armstrong another physical guy also takes many penalties, but unlike Boulton he also draws quite a few himself. The biggest surprise was seeing Slava Kozlov so high. I don't remember him taking a lot of undisciplined calls. I do remember him taking penalties to prevent scoring chances from time to time. (Note: the totals for Christensen and Williams are their full season numbers.)

Player	Games Played	Even Strength Minutes	Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	Net Penalties	Penalties Taken Rate (per 60 Minutes)	Penalties Drawn Rate (per 60 Minutes)
ERIC BOULTON	76	7.48	22	12	-10	2.3	1.3
COLIN STUART	33	9.46	8	10	2	1.5	1.9
COLBY ARMSTRONG	82	12.37	21	18	-3	1.2	1.1
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	82	11.91	18	14	-4	1.1	0.9
CHRIS THORBURN	82	9.42	13	14	1	1	1.1
JOSEPH CRABB	29	9.86	5	5	0	1	1
JIM SLATER	60	8.47	8	11	3	0.9	1.3
RICH PEVERLEY	66	11.73	11	9	-2	0.9	0.7
MARTY REASONER	79	11.53	13	21	8	0.9	1.4
ERIK CHRISTENSEN	64	11.15	10	11	1	0.8	0.9
ERIC PERRIN	78	9.99	9	15	6	0.7	1.2
TODD WHITE	82	12.39	11	11	0	0.6	0.6
JASON WILLIAMS	80	12.16	9	13	4	0.6	0.8
ILYA KOVALCHUK	79	14.87	9	17	8	0.5	0.9
BRYAN LITTLE	79	12.18	8	21	13	0.5	1.3

When it comes to penalties the defenseman are the key guys. They match up against the other super stars and at times they must take a penalty to prevent a high quality scoring chance. If you look at the table below you can see that the worst penalty takers per minute played were Valabik, Schneider, Exelby, Bogosian and Havelid.

Player	Games Played	Even Strength Minutes	Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	Net Penalties	Penalties Taken Rate (per 60 Minutes)	Penalties Drawn Rate (per 60 Minutes)
BORIS VALABIK	50	13.05	28	7	-21	2.6	0.6
MATHIEU SCHNEIDER	67	15.48	29	3	-26	1.7	0.2
GARNET EXELBY	59	14.21	19	3	-16	1.4	0.2
ZACH BOGOSIAN	47	14.62	14	10	-4	1.2	0.9
NICLAS HAVELID	78	16.15	21	8	-13	1	0.4
TOBIAS ENSTROM	82	15.89	20	19	-1	0.9	0.9
ANSSI SALMELA	26	12.24	4	5	1	0.8	0.9
NATHAN OYSTRICK	53	13.67	10	7	-3	0.8	0.6
RON HAINSEY	81	14.97	11	4	-7	0.5	0.2

At first glance, it looks like happy days are ahead--three of the worst five have departed the team! However, some caution is in order. Valabik will likely see more minutes as the "tough guy" on defense and he will probably replace some of Exelby's PIMs. New comer Pavel Kubina posted numbers that are almost identical to Nic Havelid last year, so no big change there. Mathieu Schneider's departure could be the biggest gain for the Thrashers in terms of cutting down on PIMs against. The key will be how Zach Bogosian handles playing more minutes against the top scoring forwards in the NHL. If Bogosian can contribute solid defense and stay out of the box that could save the Thrashers some goals against just by keeping them off the PK.

I plugged this data into a spread sheet and made some educated guesses about each defenseman's ice time for the upcoming season. If each player has a similar penalty pattern and if my ice time guesses are accurate--then I estimate the Thrashers could cut the number of Short Handed situations by 22 next year just based on changes to the defense. Even with a brutal PK% of .76, cutting down on 22 PK situations would save 5-6 Goals Against.

Conclusion: Avoiding penalties through improved discipline is not enough to get the Thrashers into the playoffs this upcoming season. But it could get the Thrashers about one quarter of the improvement that they need. To me the recipe for getting into the post-season looks like this: 1) improved discipline--25% of required improvement; 2) improve PK% of just below NHL average--50% of required improvement; and 3) improve ES goal differential by playing the other end more--25% of required improvement. If the Thrashers accomplish all three of those things and get their Total Goal Differential down to zero, they can get into the playoffs.

Thrashers Re-sign Jim Slater

The Falconer — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 12:00:25 -0000

Meh.

I suppose I was crazy to think that a team that finished 27th out of 30 would try to purge all their below-replacement-level guys off the roster in one summer. With Exelby gone, and Johan Hedberg perhaps headed out the door, Slater and Thorburn were next up on my "gee can't we do better than this" chopping block. Opps. Two steps forward, one step back I suppose.

What more can I say? As I explained here, the Thrashers allowed an astonishing 88 Goals on the Penalty Kill last year. More than any other factor, the PK pushed them way down the standings. Kubina and Antropov should help some but neither have been PK warriors with their recent clubs. And yet the Thrashers re-sign who was among the worst guys on our PK for two years in a row. Slater is either extremely unlucky when he's PKing or he's not very good at it compared to his teammates. The Thrashers desperately need improvement on the PK and I think they missed a chance to get better by bringing back both Thorburn and Slater and not taking a hard look at a PK specialist like Veillieux or Hinote.

Having made that enormous disclaimer, Slater works hard, has + speed in the straightaway and makes tight turns like like a stretch Hummer. He also looks good in green and white from what I hear. I'm not sure he's what the Thrashers needed--but he is what they've got.

Here are his TOI rankings and Scoring Efficiency numbers in his NHL career. Warning: ugly numbers are just ahead! I find it interesting that each successive year the coaching staff has reduced Slater's Even Strength ice time compared to other NHL forwards. Perhaps the coaching staff is on to something here?

Jim Slater ES TOI Percentile Ranking (100% = most in the NHL per game)

2006 24%

2007 19%

2008 16%

2009 10%

Two season ago Slater started off as a regular on the PK. But after Larsen and Slater got destroyed while short handed both were booted off. Last season he stayed on the PK unit all season. Ugliness prevailed when he was out there.

2008 SH Rank	2008 Player	2008 SH TOI per Game	2008 SH GAA	x	2009 SH Rank	2009 Player	2009 SH TOI per Game	2009 SH GAA
1	Hossa	2.59	5.09		1	T. White	0.69	5.27
2	T. White	2.46	6.27		2	Bogosian	1.39	5.50
3	Enstrom	3.00	6.6		3	Schneider	1.01	6.20
4	Exelby	2.68	6.81		4	Valabik	2.03	6.51
5	Havelid	3.48	7.03		5	Hainsey	2.74	7.03
6	Perrin	2.70	7.13		6	Oystrick	0.88	7.73
7	Klee	2.53	7.25		7	Peverley	1.37	7.95
8	Dupuis	2.59	7.44		8	C. Stuart	2.71	8.04
9	Holik	1.25	7.63		9	Reasoner	3.44	8.39
10	McCarthy	0.82	8.03		10	Perrin	3.27	8.46
11	Slater	1.20	10.83		11	Slater	2.60	8.84
12	Zhitnik	1.17	11.00		12	Enstrom	3.27	9.19
13	Kwiatkowski	0.51	13.09		13	Havelid	3.10	10.60
14	Larsen	0.42	20.64		14	Armstrong	0.83	11.41
					15	Exelby	2.22	11.93

Two seasons ago Slater's PK Goals Against was about 4 goals worse than the typical Thrasher PKer. Last season it was just 1 goal worse than average. His personal PKGA improved but it was still below average on a woeful PK unit.

As I said at the beginning "meh."