SB Nation - Chris Thorburn

Which Thrashers Are Playing Well at Even Strength?

The Falconer — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Lynne Sladky - AP

The Thrashers have excelled at Even Strength so far this season. After the goaltenders, the biggest reason for improvement in ES situations are the two players acquired mid-summer. Nik Antropov has been the Thrashers best forward at ES and Pavel Kubina has been the best defenseman at ES. I've been critical of Don Waddell's free agent acquisitions in past summers but he hit a home run with these two guys. They were precisely what the team needed and as a consequence the Thrashers are much improved.

Forwards

The coaching staff might not like to use terms like "first line" or "third line" but the ES Time On Ice (TOI) paint a rather clear picture. The Russian speaking line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Afinogenov is clearly #1 in ice time. The next two lines are pretty even Kozlov-White-Little and Kane-Peverley-Armstrong. The 4th line (Boulton-Slater-Thorburn) with Marty Reasoner going back and forth between the 3rd and 4th lines.

Who is facing the toughest opposition? According the Gabe Desjardin's Quality of Competition measure (opponent's Relative Goal Differential at Even Strength) Todd White, Bryan Little Slava Kozlov and Ilya Kovalchuk face the best players, while Boulton, Slater and Thorburn are sheltered.

Who is most effective? At even strength the name of the game is winning on the scoreboard. I have ranked all the players below according to their Goal Differential (GFA-GAA) per 60 minutes of ES TOI. Antropov is your clear leader. Why have the Thrashers gotten so much better this season? Well look at that list of players and you can see that 4 of the 5 most effective ES players were not on this roster one year ago today. Peverley was added in last January an Antropov via Free Agency, Kane at the NHL Draft and Afinogenov was a late NHL Camp tryout. Every single one of those moves has worked out very well!

Another measure to compare players is Desjardins' "Rating" column which compares each players net Goal Differential when that player is on the ice to when that player is off the ice. For example, Ilya Kovalchuk averages a +.59 Goal Differential when he is on the ice, but his Rating is just .01 which means that the Atlanta Thrashers post a+.58 when Kovalchuk is off the ice at ES. On the other hand, the Thrashers do much better when Nik Antropov is on the ice than when he is off it. In fact, when Antropov is off the ice the Thrashers have been out-scored at ES this season--he is only forward for whom that is true.

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
NIK ANTROPOV	26	14.6	0.00	29	16	4.59	2.53	2.06	2.28
MARTY REASONER	26	9.2	0.00	14	7	3.52	1.76	1.76	1.57
EVANDER KANE	26	12.1	0.00	20	13	3.81	2.48	1.33	1.13
RICH PEVERLEY	26	12.9	-0.03	20	14	3.57	2.50	1.07	0.79
MAXIM AFINOGENOV	26	14.4	0.01	24	18	3.85	2.89	0.96	0.67
BRYAN LITTLE	24	12.6	0.09	16	12	3.17	2.38	0.79	0.64
ILYA KOVALCHUK	20	15.1	0.07	17	14	3.37	2.77	0.59	0.01
COLBY ARMSTRONG	25	11.6	-0.02	12	12	2.48	2.48	0.00	-0.49
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	26	11.8	0.07	12	14	2.34	2.73	-0.39	-1.21
ERIC BOULTON	24	6.2	-0.09	4	6	1.62	2.43	-0.81	-1.31
CHRIS THORBURN	26	6.7	-0.06	4	6	1.38	2.07	-0.69	-1.40
TODD WHITE	26	12.0	0.13	10	15	1.93	2.89	-0.96	-1.99
JIM SLATER	11	8.4	-0.07	1	5	0.65	3.26	-2.61	-4.94

On defense Pavel Kubina has played like an All-Star minus big gaudy point totals.The Toronto Maple Leafs dumped Kubina's salary so they could sign Mike Komisarek, but I suspect that Kubina is having a better season than Komisarek is. When Kubina is on the ice in Even Skater situations the Thrashers have outscored the opposition by an astonishing 29-11 margin. Wow! When Pavel Kubina is off the ice at Even Strength the Thrashers have been outscored this season--Kubina is the only defenseman for which that statement is true. According to Desjardins Quality of Competition rating, Kubina is also facing the toughest opponents every night (with Ron Hainsey right behind him). Kubina makes some big coin ($5 million) and if he departs as a UFA this summer he will leave a giant hole.

Despite putting up some big goal totals this season Zach Bogosian has been exploited at times during even strength play. His 3.25 GAA is not very good. All three of the 3rd pairing defensemen appear to drag down the team's offense when they are on the ice (compare at their GFA to the top four guys).

NAME	GP	TOI/60	QUALCOMP	GF	GA	GFA	GAA	G Diff	RATING
PAVEL KUBINA	25	16.8	0.08	29	11	4.14	1.57	2.57	3.15
TOBIAS ENSTROM	26	16.3	0.02	26	17	3.69	2.41	1.28	1.20
ANSSI SALMELA	15	13.0	-0.04	7	6	2.15	1.85	0.31	-0.17
RON HAINSEY	24	15.6	0.07	19	18	3.04	2.88	0.16	-0.34
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	24	13.5	-0.04	11	13	2.04	2.41	-0.37	-1.14
ZACH BOGOSIAN	26	17.8	0.04	21	25	2.73	3.25	-0.52	-1.67
MARK POPOVIC	16	11.7	-0.09	7	10	2.25	3.22	-0.96	-2.31

Conclusion

The Thrashers are playing better because they are better. The new players that were added this summer (Kubina, Antropov, Afinogenov, Kane) all rank near the top at their respective positions.

Analysis: Who is Playing Well on the Thrashers PK Unit

The Falconer — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:00:15 -0000

One year ago the Thrashers PK allowed 88 goals against. So far this year, the team has allowed just 17 on 107 times being shorthanded.

The data in the table below in ONLY for PK during 5 on 4 disadvantage (excludes 5 on 3 situations). Among the forwards, the coaching staff is leaning most heavily on Reasoner, Peverley, Thorburn and Armstrong. This represents a major change from last season when the top 4 PK forwards included Reasoner, Perrin, Slater and C. Stuart.

Who has been most effective so far? When looking at Even Strength situations I put a lot of weight on Goal Differential, but on the PK scoring is an afterthought (and often involves a lot of luck), so I put greater emphasis on the PK GAA (Goals Against Average). Bottom line, the job of the PK unit is to prevent a goal against.

In the table below I have ranked all the Thrasher forwards who average at least half a minute on the PK in the order of their PK GAA. Rich Peverley has not only lead the Thrashers in points on offense but he currently sports the lowest PK GAA of any forward who plays the PK on a regular basis. Right behind Peverley is Chris Thorburn who has excelled so far this season after being given a bigger role in killing penalties. In the middle of the pack we find surprising rookie Evander Kane, Colby Armstrong and veteran PKer Marty Reasoner. Trailing behind in effectiveness are Jim Slater and Todd White who have each seen their PK minutes decline this year.

Forward	POS	GP	TOI/60	GFON	GAON	GFA	GAA	G Diff
RICH PEVERLEY	C	25	2.47	2	3	1.94	2.91	-0.97
CHRIS THORBURN	C	25	2.36	2	3	2.03	3.05	-1.02
EVANDER KANE	C	25	1.63	1	3	1.48	4.43	-2.95
COLBY ARMSTRONG	RW	24	2.23	1	5	1.12	5.61	-4.49
MARTY REASONER	C	25	3.35	2	10	1.43	7.16	-5.73
JIM SLATER	C	11	1.29	0	2	0.00	8.43	-8.43
TODD WHITE	C	25	0.48	0	2	0.00	10.00	-10.00

On defense, the guys receiving the heaviest PK burden are Ron Hainsey, Pavel Kubina and Zach Bogosian in that order. Last season Tobias Enstrom was the Thashers leading PK defenseman but this year he has seen his PK TOI cut back significantly with the arrival of Kubina and Schubert and with more minutes going to Bogosian.

In his reduced role Enstrom has been nothing short of perfect. In fact, so far the this season when killing 5 on 4 penalties the Thrashers have actually outscored the opposition 1-0 when Enstrom is on the ice--that's rather amazing.

Among the non-Enstrom defenseman new comer Pavel Kubina has the best PK GAA with Popovic right behind him. Bogosian and Hainsey bring up the rear. It is worth noting that the spread among the defensemen is much smaller than it is among the forwards, which suggests that all of the defenseman have been reasonably effective on the PK so far this year.

Defense	POS	GP	TOI/60	GFON	GAON	GFA	GAA	G Diff
TOBIAS ENSTROM	D	25	0.86	1	0	2.78	0.00	2.78
PAVEL KUBINA	D	24	3.02	1	5	0.83	4.14	-3.32
MARK POPOVIC	D	16	1.72	2	2	4.35	4.35	0.00
ZACH BOGOSIAN	D	25	2.87	3	6	2.51	5.02	-2.51
RON HAINSEY	D	23	3.87	0	9	0.00	6.07	-6.07
CHRISTOPH SCHUBERT	D	23	2.13	1	6	1.22	7.33	-6.11

Holiday Special: The Top Secret Thrashers Christmas List.

aaron b — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:07:16 -0000

In a massive coup for our writing team, our BWA spies have secured a copy of a very important document – Santa's Christmas list for our very own Atlanta Thrashers. At the risk of ruining the holidays for these players, we present it here for you in it's entirety.

via c cbssportsstore.com

Rick Dudley - 4,524 travel mugs. He's pretty hard on them.

Don Waddell - A mind-control device programmed to operate only on Jay Grossman.

John Anderson - 40 minutes of effort to match the 20 minutes he already has.

The Atlanta Sprit Group - Hawks at 12-5. Thrashers at 14-7-3. Miley Cyrus just played at Philips. What else could they possibly want?!?

Rich Peverley – A permanent ban on any questions including the phrases "Ex-ECHLer" and "waiver-wire". Oh, and will somebody pay this guy some attention, please?

Ilya Kovalchuk – Ten years, one hundred million dollars in Atlanta. And a Kindle. I bet he doesn't have one of those yet.

via komplettie.files.wordpress.com

Maxim Afinogenov - At least three more years in Thrasher blue next to Ilya Kovalchuk.

Nik Antropov - A goal. For the love of all that is good and true, a freakin goal.

Toby Enstrom - A noble steed to match his flowing mane.

Evander Kane - About 35 more pounds of muscle.

Slava Kozlov – A nice crocheted sweater that says "NOT VIKTOR."

Zach Bogosian - Call of Duty strategy guide (Bryan wins too much) and some sweet rims for his ride.

Pavel Kubina - Hey, he's not a Maple Leaf anymore; what else does he want?

Todd White – Quicken 2010/TurboTax 2010 value bundle. And some sedatives. Can't have him getting too wild.

Bryan Little – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 and some new Xbox controllers (Zach keeps breaking them).

Marty Reasoner – Custom "The PARTY is HERE!" t-shirt and matching trucker cap.

Colby Armstrong - A nap.

Kari Lehtonen - One of those back massage thingys they have at Bed Bath & Beyond.

Ron Hainsey - Product. Lots and lots of hair product.

Chris Thorburn - Some recognition for the tireless charity work this guy does. (srsly)

Anssi Salmela - The removal of the sign above his locker that says "The Guy We Got For Nic Havelid."

Christoph Schubert - Schnitzel and The Best of Mike Meyers on SNL. I guess he's likes the "Sprockets" sketches.

Eric Boulton - PunchOut for Nintendo Wii, and a nice display case for Riley Cote's dignity.

Mark Popovic – Something to get the smell of borscht out of his gameday suit.

Johan Hedberg – Bah, he'll be happy with any kind of Spongebob something-or-other.

Ondrej Pavelec - A helmet that stays on.

Jim Slater - His recycling merit badge (finally).

Chris Thorburn and Coach Anderson talk with BWA

The Falconer — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 08:19:45 -0000

More photos » by Gregory Smith - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers right wing Chris Thorburn, right, checks Nashville Predators forward Patric Hornqvist, left, of Sweden, into the boards during the third period of a preseason NHL hockey game Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

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Last Saturday the Thrashers invited a number of blog writers to attend the morning skate and the game with the opportunity to talk to Thrasher player Chris Throburn, Coach John Anderson, GM Don Waddell and broadcasters Dan Kamal and Darren Eliot. It was a great opportunity to ask questions and get answers straight from the players and decision makers. After an insanely busy week, I was able to find time to transcribe the questions. Today I have the question and answers from Thorburn and Coach Anderson. I'll post the Waddell material on Sunday.

Chris Thorburn Q and A

BWA: You were traded twice in juniors and twice in the NHL. Can you talk about that experience and your reaction when you were traded to the Thrashers?

Thorburn: It can be pretty tough, but I didn't have any kids. I huge part of it fell on my wife. I had to take off right away and she would be left packing and unpacking. She has been a big help with each transition. I didn't know much about the [Thrashers] coming in. I knew Eric Boulton from our days in the Buffalo organization--but not all that well. I just looked at it as a chance to stick with a NHL club because I hadn't yet. I appreciate that the Thrashers gave me that opportunity.

BWA: Why is the Penalty Kill doing so much better this season? What is the difference from last year?

Thorburn: I think it is more attention to detail. I sat in every PK meeting last year--even though I didn't play much on it. The coaches have put together a lot of film--both on us and the opposing team--we're prepared going into each game. And then you have veterans like Reasoner who has been doing this his whole life. He has lots of tips that he has passed on to the rest of the killers and that plays a big part in our success. Knowing what the other team wants to do, before they do it and then reading off of each other. Playing [on the PK] with Marty right now is so easy because we talk on the bench before we even hit the ice about what we're going to do.

BWA: Thrashers Assistant Coach Randy Cunneyworth was also in the Buffalo system, did you play for him while you were in that organization?

Thorburn: I played for him for 3 years in the Buffalo system. He was actually the one who evolved my style of game into more of a power forward who goes out there to bang and crash as well as chip in some offense. That's when my game really changed and turned me into a good pro."

BWA: Did he ever sit you down and say you have to change your style to make the NHL?

Thorburn: Yeah, he sat me down a few times. [chuckles] There were multiple conversations.

Coach Anderson Q and A

BWA: Last game Kovalchuk had a 4 minute shift and a 3 and 1/2 minute shift--mostly on the power play--is there a point of diminishing returns?

Anderson: You missed the part where he stopped by the bench to get a drink of water and kept going (laughs). At that point in the game it was 5-3 late, so we didn't need just one goal, we needed two and he's our most dynamic player. If we were winning by one or two then he wouldn't need him to play 3 and 1/2 minutes shifts. Certainly, I'd like him to take a breather now and then, but he's in such great shape and can just go like that for a long time.

BWA: You like to use multiple systems, were you surprised last year at how long it took NHL players to learn those systems?

Anderson: Yes. I think I took for granted that when you move up a level that guys would have seen these systems--but a lot of the time guys had not. One of our forechecks is VERY aggressive and for me to get our defense to move up--it took a month to get them to do it. At practice I'm screaming at them and then in the game they're not sure whether to go up or not--and if they don't go up we're in even bigger trouble. They were reluctant, but I'm the coach and I'm saying do it. I understand that they may not be used to playing like that--and if they hesitate even for half a second we're toast. It has to be immediate, like a chess game--if the other team moves Rook to Queen, then our guy goes bang and reacts--that is what has to happen.

Sean Grace then turned up the heat and asked Coach Anderson if Nic Havelid was one of those "reluctant" players last season. That earned Sean what was probably his first ever "no comment" type answer--although Coach Anderson's body language was unambiguous.

New Jersey Devils Continue to Struggle at Home, Lose 4-2 to Atlanta Thrashers

Steve Lepore — Sat, 17 Oct 2009 02:53:43 -0000

More photos » by Rich Schultz - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers' Chris Thorburn is hugged by teammate Tobias Enstrom (39) of Sweden after Thorburn scored a short handed goal past New Jersey Devils' goalie Martin Brodeur (30) and Jamie Langenbrunner (15) during the third period in an NHL hockey game at Prudential Center in Newark, N.J. Friday, Oct. 16, 2009. Atlanta defeated New Jersey 4-2. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

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The New Jersey Devils failed to win at home in their first two tries against divisional opponents, and a visit from the Atlanta Thrashers proved them no better in the Brick City, as Atlanta defeated the Devils 4-2 in front of a fairly accurate 14,187 at the Prudential Center. The NHL.com recap is up, complete with links to all the stats you need such as the box score, game summary and event summary. The Devils seemed to be having a somewhat opposite day from the three-game southeastern road trip, which the Devils went 3-0 on. Whereas in at least two of the games they struggled to generate much in the first period, they played their best period of the game in the first and went down from there.

Bird Watchers Anonymous should have their recap up in a little while, and should have plenty good to say about their young hockey club. They looked hungry, and clearly saw a Devil team taking them lightly and took advantage. The Devils seemed like a team that just expected young goaltender Ondrej Pavelec to cave in after getting 15 first period shots and not putting the puck in the net on any of them. Aside from Pavelec, Rich Peverly turned out to be the hero of the night for Atlanta, getting two power play goals to power Blueland to their third win in four tries (3-1-0, 6 points) while the Devils (3-3-0, 6 points) had a three-game win streak snapped.

As mentioned earlier, the first period went scoreless. The Devils had the only power play of the period, when Evander Kane went off for roughing, but failed to convert. The Devils ineptitude on the man power advantage proved to be a theme, as New Jersey went 0-for-6 and generated very little in the way of quality chances. The Thrashers countered going 2-for-3 on the power play, tiring out Jersey's penalty kill by playing organized and to the outside, eventually getting passes into the slot to create chaos and get goals for Peverly.

Anyway, the Devils did control the tempo for much of the first, though you saw the Thrashers start to fight back toward the end of the period, where Martin Brodeur had to make some good saves for the first time in what seemed like forever. The Thrashers continued this momentum into the 2nd period, where they outshot New Jersey 9-5, and came close on a short-range breakaway for Slava Kozlov that Johnny Oduya had to knock away in desperation.

Despite all this Atlanta momentum, the Devils managed to get the game's first goal. After Travis Zajac just missed on a combination play, the Devils reset, and Bryce Salvador and Jamie Langenbrunner both made great passes to a streaking Zajac down the center of the ice, and he made no mistake (one of the only times tonight a Devil would do so) ripping it past Pavelec for his 4th of the year.

Atlanta tied it about six minutes later, when the Devils took what seems to be becoming an annoying regular occurrence - a too-many-men-on-the-ice penalty. Brodeur was able to stop a shot by Maxim Afinogenov, but Rich Peverly was right in the slot, in perfect position to get the rebound and put it home to tie the game. The teams continued to duel evenly to the end of the 2nd period.

Early in the third, the Thrashers began to wrestle control from the game, and you saw the Devils pretty much get the wind knocked out of them on a fantastic play by rookie Evander Kane. Kane absolutely undressed Cory Murphy at his own blue line, passing it through him and then darting around Murphy and ripping one past Brodeur to make it 2-1. Murphy was not heard from again the rest of the night, and only played 3:49 more of the game. I will be very surprised if we see Murphy again tomorrow night against the Carolina Hurricanes. You simply cannot let that happen to you if you want to play in the NHL. He looked silly.

The Devils dug a deeper hole when Colin White went off for a trip of Nik Antropov. It was Rich Peverly doing it again. He made a pass to an uncovered Antropov right in front of Brodeur, who drew attention to his big frame and passed it back to Peverly, who shot it past Marty to make it 3-1. Peverly's pair of goals gives him 4 on the season, and certainly makes him a player to watch on an Atlanta team that most don't seem to think will be competitive. They certainly looked like the better team in the third.

That isn't to say New Jersey didn't have plenty of chances. The Devils had three 3rd period power plays, including an 8-second 5-on-3 that they couldn't convert on. They outshot Atlanta 10-6 on the way. Just when things seemed completely hopeless, a bizarre play created the Devils' final goal of the night. Bryce Salvador (who had two assists on the night) chopped at a puck at the blue line and it popped through the zone to where Jamie Langenbrunner could miraculously chop at it and center it to a streaking Zach Parise, who had an open net to make it 3-2. It had been noted before the game that the ZZ Pops line had trouble scoring at even strength early on in the year. Well, they got two of them 5-on-5 in this game, but very little came offensively for the Devils beyond them.

The Devils got a gift of a power play at 15:42 when Zach Bogosian went off for holding. At this point, Jamie Langenbrunner proceeded to have a terrible, awful, no good, very bad shift that may have cost the Devils a potential comeback. After lazily missing an easy pass that went out of the zone, Langenbrunner completely missed the net on a shot on the next go-around. The puck bounced out of the zone and right to the Thrashers, who went on to create chaos and shots in front of Marty Brodeur, who for some reason, felt it necessary to flop around the zone, as if in some sort of forced desperation.

Brodeur got caught eventually way out of his crease when Langenbrunner inexplicably got caught sliding into his own goalie, which created a pile up and a loose puck in front and an empty net for Chris Thorburn, who fought Andrew Peters after the Zajac goal, to make it 4-2 Atlanta. You need your best players to be your best players, and in this case, the Devils captain and their future hall-of-famer in goal need to be called out for a very poor shift.

The Devils fought in desperation to tie it up, pulling Brodeur with less than a minute to go, but failed in their efforts to fall to the Thrashers 4-2. Both teams are playing tomorrow, with the Thrashers traveling to Buffalo to play the Sabres, and the Devils with a chance for some much needed redemption at home against the Carolina Hurricanes. I'm planning on going, and I assume Fischer is as well, so we shall talk to you tomorrow about that, and hope for a better day than today.

On that note, I do want to thank our captain, John Fischer here at In Lou We Trust for his gracious offer of his season ticket for tonight's game. It may not have been the way we wanted, but all hockey is undeniably perfect, and the chance to see a game from his seats was well appreciated.

Game #3: Thrashers Suffer 1st Loss in Ottawa

The Falconer — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 16:19:51 -0000

More photos » by FRED CHARTRAND - AP

2 months ago: Ottawa Senators' Daniel Alfredsson, of Sweden, is hit by Atlanta Thrashers' Zack Bogosian (4) during the second period of an NHL hockey game in Ottawa on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Fred Chartrand)

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It is very difficult to say anything intelligent about a game only broadcast on the radio. Throw in some drinking with fellow hockey players at Battle and Brew before the Thrashers game...and that pretty much leaves me with just stats to work with for today's post. On the one hand, it is almost ridiculous to look at team statistics after just three games. On other hand, we have a nearly an entire week before the next hockey Thrashers game, so why not?

Below I have created a table with stats for the Ottawa game, except for the final two columns which show the season Corsi Numbers (net shots fired at ES) and season Net Goal Differential (ES Goals For Average - ES Goals Against Average) for each player.

When working with a very small amount of data there can be a lot of noise (randomness) that hides the true patterns. In fact, if we look at the Corsi and Goal Differential numbers for Thrasher defenseman they give conflicting messages. According to the Corsi column Hainsey and Enstrom have the best Shots Differential and Kubina and Salmela the worst. However, if we look at the actual Goal Differential (controlling for ES ice time) Hainsey and Kubina rate as the most effective and Enstrom and Bogosian as the least effective. (stats say: Hainsey good, mixed on Enstrom.) As the team plays more games these data should become more consistent. Personally, I think Enstrom and Bogosian are playing just fine, so it could be a matter of some bad luck in a small number of games. Time will tell.

Player	G	A	Plus	SOG	EV TOI	PP TOI	SH TOI	TT TOI	Season ES Corsi	Season ES GD
Defense
Pavel Kubina	0	1	1	2	20:22	1:47	2:33	24:42	-18.2	3.41
Zach Bogosian	0	0	-1	2	20:17	1:05	1:38	23:00	-9.4	-1.05
Tobias Enstrom	0	0	-1	2	17:53	3:30	0:16	21:39	-7.2	-1.20
Ron Hainsey	1	0	1	3	19:16	0:07	2:14	21:37	-6.1	3.67
Anssi Salmela	0	0	-1	1	11:00	0:00	0:00	11:00	-15.3	1.53
Christoph Schubert	0	0	-1	0	13:38	0:00	1:39	15:17	-10.1	0.00
Forwards
Ilya Kovalchuk	1	0	1	4	18:32	3:37	0:11	22:20	-19.0	1.53
Bryan Little	0	1	1	1	16:04	2:55	0:00	18:59	-19.8	3.71
Nik Antropov	0	1	1	0	17:01	1:12	0:00	18:13	-17.3	2.47
Vyacheslav Kozlov	0	0	-1	2	14:33	3:30	0:00	18:03	-7.9	-3.16
Maxim Afinogenov	0	0	-1	3	16:17	1:40	0:00	17:57	-5.7	-4.29
Todd White	0	0	-1	1	12:27	2:55	0:44	16:06	-14.3	-4.77
Colby Armstrong	0	0	0	1	13:30	0:00	1:20	14:50	4.6	2.32
Rich Peverley	0	0	0	3	12:41	1:05	0:54	14:40	1.6	3.28
Evander Kane	0	0	0	2	12:40	0:00	1:45	14:25	-1.7	3.44
Marty Reasoner	0	0	-1	0	8:36	0:00	1:58	10:34	0.0	3.91
Chris Thorburn	0	0	-1	1	5:07	0:00	1:28	6:35	-16.8	3.36
Eric Boulton	0	0	-1	0	5:08	0:07	0:00	5:15	-17.3	3.45

If we look at the forwards, we can see that the #1 line of Kovalchuk-Antropov-Little are getting killed in Net Shots Differential but they have a postive Net Goal Differential. To be honest, I was very surprised to see how badly they have been outshot because my eyeballs are telling me that the Kovalchuk line is doing much better at producing sustained shifts in the Offensive Zone.

The data on the 2nd line is unambigous, they are being both out shot and out scored so far. In fact the #2 line is the ONLY Thrashers line with a negative Goal Differential so far this season. It is rare for any NHL team to have all their lines firing at once, so hopefully this line will catch fire as another one cools off.

Last year Colby Armstrong was the Thrasher Corsi MVP by a wide margin. He is off to another good start and leads the squed with a +4.6 per 60 minutes of ES TOI. In fact, the 3rd line is the only Thrasher line that has not been outshot by a significant margin. They have also out scored the opposition. This strikes me as a very good 3rd line in the NHL.

The 4th line scored in both of the first two games thanks largely to the heroics of Eric Boulton. On the other hand, they are getting killed in shots. Let's hope they can hang on and just finished the season even in Goal Differential. That would be a big plus if they can pull that off.

Analyzing the Battles for Roster Spots

timmyf — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 15:30:15 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Thrashers goalie Ondrej Pavelec (31), of the Czech Republic, lets the puck get past him for a goal by theTampa Bay Lightning during the third period in an NHL preseason hockey game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009, in Atlanta. Tampa Bay won 5-1. (AP Photo/John Amis)

Browse more photos »

With the last pre-season game (thankfully) over, we can now turn our attention to the final cuts that will be made between now and opening day. The Thrashers need to cut their team down to 23 players by Wednesday at 3pm. Let's take a look at where the team stands.

Up front, we've got 8 skaters who are virtually guaranteed to be with the team on Opening Night: Kovalchuk, Antropov, Little, Kozlov, White, Peverley, Reasoner, and Armstrong. Just four spots on the blueline are decided: Enstrom, Bogosian, Hainsey, and Kubina. There are serious questions in goal. Let's evaluate the 4 battles for those final positions.

The Battle: Kane vs Afinogenov

The Position: 3rd-line Left Wing

The Basics: With 8 of the Top-9 forward spots filled, the last spot will likely be taken by either 2009 1st-round draft pick Evander Kane or pro-tryout Maxim Afinogenov. Neither of these players will remain with the team to play 4th line minutes (or sit in the press box as a 13th forward).

The Dark Horse: Dan Fritsche. He could earn a spot as the penalty-kill specialist badly needed by the anemic Thrashers penalty kill unit. That was only reinforced on Sunday night; the Thrashers gave up 3 powerplay goals to the Lightning. His chances could be hurt by Coach Anderson's willingness to play Kane on the penalty kill; Kane had 2:51 of short-handed time in the final pre-season game.

The Twist: Evander Kane cannot be sent to the Chicago Wolves, he would have to return to his junior team, the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. After scoring 48 goals and 96 points with the Giants last year, there is little left for Kane to prove in junior hockey. Maxim Afinogenov, on the other hand, doesn't have a contract with the Thrashers. It would have to be negotiated before Wednesday. His last contract was upward of $3,000,000 a season, and while we could likely sign him for less, signing Max would further stress our budget.

Predictions:

Tim: This is a tough one. Don Waddell has said repeatedly that they want Evander to make the Thrashers this season. The coaching staff is giving him every opportunity to stick with the big club. At the Thrashers Fan Club meeting before Sunday's game, however, he also made a revealing comment. [Side note: if you haven't yet joined the Fan Club, you can do so here.] When a question about Max came up, the audience cheered and Don commented, 'Oh, you're making it harder for me now, his agent is probably here. He'll use that against me.' [That's roughly paraphrased from memory, not a direct quote.] I think it comes down to contract: if we can get Max for the right term (short) and money (in the low 2 millions), I think we sign him. If not, Kane sticks with the Thrash.
EvilMilkshake: If you had the chance to see Evander in the preseason, or even listened on the radio, you could see (or hear) he's not ready. He gets tossed around too easily. It's good to see him on the PK, getting some experience, but he probably wouldn't help in that department this season. He may get the 9-day tryout, but I don't see him sticking with the club all season. My guess is they'll sign Maxim. He's got experience and speed and although he himself may not finish, he creates scoring chances or makes plays on many of his shifts. Pair him with the right players, and his line could rack up some points.
Aaron: My head says "Evander", but my heart whispers "Maxim!" in an overly tender and loving way. I don't see any downside at all to signing Afinogenov to said short term/low money deal and sending Kane back to Vancouver. I can't imagine Kane's development as a player would be that stunted, and (I could be wrong about this) he's available for recall if needed. Will giving Evander 3rd line minutes give us that little push over the cliff we need to make the playoffs? Doubtful. We've got more depth at the wing than at any time in recent memory - let's not risk anything. Having said that, here's my offical prediction: I'm fairly certain Kane sticks with the big club, and Max walks.

The Battle: Boulton vs Thorburn vs Gratton

The Position: 4th-line Wing

The Basics: Tough guys Eric Boulton and Chris Thorburn have some competition this year in the form of pro-tryout Josh Gratton. As a "checking-line" winger, the Thrashers need a skater who can hit, fore- and back-check against the opposition's top lines, and drop the gloves on occasion.

The Twist: Energy-line guys don't normally score two goals in a game, pre-season or not. With a couple solid performances, Josh Gratton is going to make this decision much harder for the Thrashers' coaches.

Predictions:

Tim: I think the Thrashers tipped their hand with the lineup for the final game: Boulton - Slater - Thorburn. Gratton could stay with the Thrashers as a 13th forward and get some time in, but I don't see it happening.
EvilMilkshake: As much as I've liked Gratton's game, I don't see him staying with the big club either unless it's as the 13th man. He'll most likely be the first call up in the event of a 4th line injury.
Aaron: The performance of "the best 4th line in the league" last night told us we need a change. Ergo, Boulton - Slater - Thorburn it is and shall stay.

The Battle: Valabik vs Oystrick vs Salmela vs Popovic

The Positions: Two Bottom-Pairing Defensemen, Reserve Defenseman

The Basics: The Top-4 spots on D are locked up, but the next three are up for grabs. One of Boris Valabik, Nathan Oystrick, Anssi Salmela, and Mark Popovic will be cut before Opening Night. The first three have contracts and Popovic is with the team on a pro-tryout basis.

The Dark Horse: Just like Gratton with the forwards, tryout Popovic is trying to earn a contract by bumping someone from the roster. He's looked good so far, earning 1st Star honors at the first home pre-season game. Also, while not currently in the Thrashers system, Mark was previously a Thrashers prospect, so he's a familiar face within the organization.

Predictions:

Tim: You know who hasn't looked great so far this year? Boris Valabik. For guys as big as Boris, it takes some time before they find their feet and learn how to play physical without taking penalties. Personally, I just don't think Valabik is there yet. That said, sending him to Chicago would only stunt his development further. It's a balancing act between over-learning the lesson of Braydon Coburn (big defensemen take time to develop) and having too much faith in a player who isn't performing as well as we'd like. For my money, I think Boris spends some time in Chicago this year with a skating coach while Popovic and Salmela start with the Thrashers. Nathan Oystrick sits in the press box but will occasionally spell the other guys to stay fresh.
EvilMilkshake: I agree with Tim about Valabik in that he hasn't looked very good at all. He seems to be trying too hard. Valabik has performed well in the past, and it would be a mistake to send him down. So far in the pre-season he's gotten a lot of ice time, so his faults are showing up more. If he stays, expect 3rd pairing minutes only (he hasn't been on the 3rd pairing in most pre-season games) and even press box nights if he has a few bad games. I think Oystrick gets sent down. He hasn't impressed and the Thrashers have more options at defense this season.
Aaron: John Anderson said in his post-game presser last night that Boris needs to keep moving to improve. I expect Valabik to stick with the club for at least 10-15 games, but after that, look for Oystrick to come up after knocking the cobwebs out in Chicago, if necessary. Salmela & Popovic comprise the bottom D pairing.

The Battle: Pavelec vs Hedberg vs Legace vs Lehtonen

The Positions: Starting and Backup Goaltender

The Basics: The Thrashers have lacked stability in goal for much of their history. Superstitious fans might say the team has something of a "goalie curse," and if you were around for the 2005 - 2006 season, you got to see an almost shocking number of goalies. (Adam Berkhoel and Steve Shields, anyone?) 2nd-overall pick Kari Lehtonen was supposed to be the future between the pipes, but repeated injuries have caused concern. Backup goaltender Johan Hedberg fills in admirably, but he isn't going to be a solution for the top job. Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star Manny Legace was invited to camp as a pro tryout, and the Thrashers are also auditioning top prospect Ondrej Pavelec for the starting job.

The Dark Horse: Three of these goalies have contracts. One of these goalies does not. Still, Manny Legace has had an impressive career thus far: 177-92-18-23 with a 0.912 save percentage and 2.38 GAA in the NHL. His last losing season in the NHL? 1998 - 1999 with the Los Angeles Kings. If not for an unfortunate tumble on a carpet placed for Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin, so the story goes, Manny would still be a part of the rotation with the St. Louis Blues. In his short playing time with the Thrashers, he's looked solid. Don't overlook the importance of his character: Manny's a fun guy, and the Thrashers are a team that is striving to maintain a unified locker room.

The Twist: Kari Lehtonen is injured. Thrashers fans probably won't be surprised by that statement. It's looking like Kari will spend the first 3 or 4 weeks of the season on the injured reserve, meaning he won't count against the player limit of 23. Once he goes onto IR (on Wednesday at 3pm), he must remain there for at least two weeks. When he's back and ready to play, he could see time in Chicago on a conditioning stint. Assuming the team carries 13 forwards and 7 defensemen, they can carry 3 goalies. Does that mean two for the start of the season and three once Kari returns? Or does it mean three for the start of the season and some player movement in the future?

Predictions:

Tim: Don Waddell commented that he was speaking with Legace's agent in an attempt to keep him "within the organization." I won't attempt to read into that comment here, but I'll simply say that Manny's shots at a contract are looking a little better than a few weeks ago. I haven't been overly impressed with Pavelec this pre-season and having some stability in goal would be huge for the Thrashers. I think we'll start the season with Pavelec, Hedberg, and Legace, but I expect some player movement in the near future.
EvilMilkshake: Having the fortunate opportunity to see Manny's one pre-season game and in behind an Atlanta defense, I'd like to see him here this season. Now granted, the lineup during that game was not all the players on our roster, but he proved he's still got it in my eyes. With the Thrashers current rotation of Hedberg & Pavelec, I believe it would be a mistake to not sign Legace as some added insurance.
Aaron: I'll go one step further: sign Manny, trade Kari for a solid PKer and tell Pavelec to find some way to not look so scared when he's in an NHL net. The kid can tear it up in the AHL, but has a hard time adjusting with the big club. He'll make a spectacular save, and then look a little weak on the very next shot.

Feel free to comment below and let us know who you think will earn a spot to start the season.

ThrashersTraining Camp Job Battles Narrow

The Falconer — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 05:15:17 -0000

After two pre-season games the Thrashers have cut down their camp roster to 37 players who are still in the mix for NHL roster spots. I'm going to assume that these 9 forwards have NHL jobs: Kovalchuk, Kozlov, White, Antropov, Peverley, Little, Armstrong and Reasoner. So what does that leave?

Forwards: 4 starting spots and 1 or 2 bench slots.

Incumbents:

Challengers:

Thoughts: All of the incumbents have at least a one year NHL contracts and I would surprised if they failed to make the final roster. This last summer I wrote about the "myth of the best 4th line" and suggested that the Thrashers could find better players to flesh out the bottom of their forward ranks. But the Thrashers choose to re-sign Slater and Thorburn which indicates they think more favorably about that line than I do. If the incumbent 4th liners are all safe, that really leaves just one active roster spot and one or two bench slots available.

How might this race shake out? Personally, I've seen very little out of Dan Fritsche in practice or exhibition play, the guy looks like he's lost his mojo. Gratton is probably the only person really challenging Boulton for the tough guy slot, but I think the organization values Boulton's locker room presence enough that he keeps his spot. Machacek looks pretty good but he might still benefit from receiving bigger minutes in the AHL. Evander Kane has looked OK in pre-season but hasn't really amazed. I've already laid out the case for returning him to the WHL--the fact that he's not scoring in pre-season could make this decision easier.

That narrows it down to some veterans: Afinogenov, Crabb, Stapleton, Krog. Personally, I find Maxim Afinogenov incredibly frustrating to watch play. He has amazing stick handling skills and good speed but it seems like he rarely turns those attributes into goals. Still if he's willing to sign for a low price, it would be a low risk gamble with some upside potential. My guess is that if Evander Kane goes back to the WHL, Afinogenov might make the NHL roster if the price is right.

The other three guys--Stapleton, Krog and Crabb--are all AHL veterans who are no longer developing as prospects. They are all a bit undersized by NHL standards but have solid puck skills (Krog, Stapleton) or speed (Crabb, Stapleton). If the Thrashers were to keep Afinogenov and bump Peverley to the 3rd line, any one of these AHL veterans could step into 13th forward spot and it would not harm their development as it would a younger kid.

Prediction: My gut instinct is that Coach Anderson will give Jason Krog that 13th forward spot and one more crack at playing in the NHL. Krog and Anderson had some great seasons together in Chicago and if anyone knows what Jason brings to the table--it is Anderson.

Defense

The top four defensemen (Bogosian, Enstrom, Hainsey and Kubina) appear set and that leaves two starting positions and a bench slot up for grabs.

Incumbents

Challengers

I would cross Vernance off the list first. He looked totally out of his league in Nashville and I'm surprised that he survived the most recent round of cuts. I haven't seen Welch in game action, but like Dan Fritsche you have to really look hard to notice him in training camp. I'm a big Grant Lewis supporter, but he's clearly still recovering from his significant knee injury. Postma probably needs a full season in the AHL playing against bigger men.

That leaves 3 incumbents and 2 challengers battling it out for 3 slots. So far Kulda and Popovic both have played well and gotten the attention of Coach Anderson. I would not be surprised if either were on the team opening day. The biggest problem for Kulda is that he can be sent down that gives the Thrashers a quality first call up should injuries strike. With Popovic they have to fish or cut bait soon--which gives him more leverage in some respects.

The real question is who would they knock off? I can't see Valabik going anywhere. His size and physicality are badly needed on this roster. I do think that both Salmela and Oystrick could be vulnerable to losing their spot. Oystrick in particular looked very nervous and rough at times in the Nashville pre-season game. Perhaps, it was just initial nerves but if he continues to struggle in pre-season he could end up on the outside looking in. Salmela was ridiculously non-physical in Nashville allowing opposing forwards to do pretty much whatever they wanted. He can't continue to play like that and hold a NHL D spot.

Summary: If Oystrick and Salmela can play like they did at the end of last season, they should hold off Popovic. The next few games will be crucial.

Goaltender

The incumbent Lehtonen is hurt yet again and his lack of professionalism is irritating a team that needs someone reliable in the nets. The Opening Night starting job is a free for all. Ondrej Pavelec played a very strong game in Tampa on Friday. MacIntyre played a strong period in Nashville. Manny Legace is a NHL pro with a long track record. Johan Hedberg is the sentimental favorite of many, but is under heavy pressure this camp. The Thrashers have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs assuming they get solid goaltending most nights. If Legace looks better than Hedberg, the team would be wise to put keep him, skill not likability must determine this contest.

Expectation: Lehtonen starts the season on IR, with Pavelec and Legace on the opening night roster.

Waddell: Goalie Spots Wide Open

The Falconer — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:00:29 -0000

I was not able to attend the Tuesday Townhall Meeting, but Timmyf and I were at the Wednesday breakfast. Waddell took many questions, but here were the items that stood out to me.

#1 Goaltender Job Hotly Contested

Last year the Thrashers did everything they could do bolster Kari Lehtonen's confidence. Coach Anderson and Waddell both said that he was the number one and they were looking for him to step up his game. But Kari missed yet another full month of the season. Then he had back surgery late in the summer and was not as diligent with his rehab. It appears that the kid glove treatment is over for Lehtonen.

There were a couple of questions about the goaltending spot. Waddell said that Lehtonen is not yet facing shots and they are waiting for the doctors to clear him. Perhaps, even more telling than the words was the tone he used. Then towards the end the frustration became more explicit. "Even when Lehtonen is healthy, he should not assume that the #1 job is his. At this point, I don't think he has earned the right to expect that."

Even Johan Hedberg should not rest easy. Waddell said the best goalies will make the team and that "if a young goalie outplays an older goalie contracts will not decide roster spots"--last time I checked the Thrashers only have one old goalie on their camp roster. Waddell indicated that they did a lot of research on Manny Legace and that he is an established NHL goaltender with a substantial track record. He also said they were very excited about Drew McIntyre. They hotly pursued the minor UFA and offered him a 2 year deal to signal the seriousness of their interest.

One season ticket holder pointed out that it is very important for the team to get off to a good start--and they will play 5 of 6 on the road. He asked, "who do you think will be our starter Opening Night?" Waddell paused, and answered "Pavelec."

Let the goalie battle begin!

The NHL and Thrashers Financial Situation

Waddell was asked about the NHL's salary cap. He said that recent numbers from around the league showed that 20 of the NHL teams were behind on season ticket renewals and the other 10 were either flat or ahead of pace. This is the effect of a bad economy. He expects the cap to fall in the summer of 2010 (which will not be an issue for Atlanta since they are well under it).

In the case of Atlanta, a big concern this summer was luxury box renewals; 49 of the 92 of the luxury boxes at Philips Arena had 10 year leases which expired this summer. The organization was concerned about the renewal rate in a bad economy, but 30 of the 49 boxes have been sold or renewed. Waddell mentioned one other tidbit that actually shocked me. The Atlanta Hawks qualified the playoffs two years ago for their 1st appearance in a long time, and this last spring they made the playoffs and advanced to the 2nd round. Only now have the Hawks passed the Thrashers in season tickets sold! I found that amazing considering that the Hawks have a better record and a longer history in a region with SEC and ACC basketball tradition--and yet the NHL team had more STH?! Waddell said he knows many of the hockey fans in Atlanta are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see a good team and that if they want to sell more hockey tickets they have to win more hockey games on the ice.

He pointed out that the Thrashers were going to add about $8 million in payroll compared to last summer, while the big spenders were required to hold their budgets flat due to the salary cap. Another person asked about the impact on revenue sharing (hopefully a BWA reader) and Waddell said that team payroll would rise by roughly $8 million, and the Thrashers revenue sharing would fall about around $6 million. Ownership was in effect absorbing a $14 million swing by increasing player payroll this summer.

I asked him if staying under the mid point was a significant factor and he suggested they were willing to cross over that line. After the Rangers walked away from Zherdev's arbitration contract, Waddell informed the owners of a surprising opportunity to sign a talented player and they gave him the green light to have talks even though it was not in the original budget. Zherdev ended up signing with Atlant of the KHL and it appears that the dollar amount was one reason. The KHL money goes further because of a much lower tax rate and other benefits that they can offer.

Improving the PK

The Thrashers coaching staff spent their summer working hard to figure out how to fix the Thrashers PK unit. They watched video of the top 10 PK units in the NHL and looked for patterns and strategies. They also want to try spreading the PK ice time out among more players. Fans should expect to see a bigger PK rotation and players such as Jim Slater, Chris Thorburn, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Colby Armstrong and Rich Peverley will see more PK minutes in an effort to keep everyone fresh. (I hope to have a post on this topic soon.)

Ilya Kovalchuk Contract

The Thrashers and Kovalchuk are not discussing a "lifetime contract" ala Hossa's recent deal. The Thrashers don't want a front -or back-loaded contract. And Kovalchuk isn't willing to sign a lifetime contract because he hopes to play perhaps as long as age 40--which would be 13 more years! It sounded like they were talking a term somewhere in between 5 and 8 years, which would then allow Kovalchuk to sign another deal if he desires to play into his late 30s.

Carl Klingberg Update

Someone asked about the Thrashers European players and the European Scout was present and mentioned four players who could contribute at the NHL level: Klingberg, Lasu, Zubarev and the ever elusive Nikulin. Klingberg was impressing while playing in a pre-season Swedish Elite League tournament where he led everyone in goal scoring. It appears both he and Lasu will play at the senior level this year.

Olympic Schedule

NHL teams will play 82 regular season games in 180 days instead of the 185 days used last season. The games will be compressed and (hopefully) this might benefit a younger team like Atlanta. He also mentioned that the overall team fitness in the strength and cardio areas were the best in team history. Slava Kozlov in his late 30s had the best VO2 number of anyone on the roster. "Any player who wants to see what a professional athlete looks like should just watch Kozlov." (I can make a good guess as to who he was thinking of when he said "any player".)

Improving the Thrashers Penalty Kill: Stay out of the Box

The Falconer — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 15:06:01 -0000

Anyone who watched the Thrashers last season knows that the Penalty Kill was just a disaster zone all last season. The Thrashers allowed a staggering 88 goals against while short handed (league leading Minnesota allowed just 36 PPGA last season). The PK unit alone gave up more than 1/3 of all of the team's Goals Against last season. The PK% was dead last for most of the year and ended up 29th in a 30 team league. At Even Strength, the Thrashers were a net -10 in Goal Differential last year, and on special teams they were a net -16, for a combined -26. To make the playoffs they need to get that net Goal Differential to zero or better.

The simplest way to cut down on Power Play Goals Against is to stay out of the box. Unfortunately the Thrashers were not very good at that either. The team finished 25th (out of 30) in minor penalties taken, and they finished 24th in number of times short handed. Let's assume for the moment that the Thrashers show absolutely no improvement in their PK% but simply cut down on the number of penalties taken. If they went from 366 times short handed (24th worst) to 330 times short handed (13th) that would result in NINE fewer PK goals allowed. In other words, if the Thrashers simply display more discipline--that factor alone would get them 1/3 of the improvement they need to make the playoffs.

First let's look at the forwards. Last year the Thrashers had NOBODY among the the NHL leaders in penalties drawn. I suspect that Kovalchuk is still not getting as many calls as other speedy stars because of his reputation for diving when he was younger. The Thrashers best player in terms of net penalty differential last season was Bryan Little who put the team on the PP 13 more times than he put his team on the PK.

In the table below, I have everyone ranked by their "Discipline Rate" or their rate of minor penalties against given their ES ice time. It is probably not so surprising to see a tough guy like Eric Boulton at the top of this list. Colby Armstrong another physical guy also takes many penalties, but unlike Boulton he also draws quite a few himself. The biggest surprise was seeing Slava Kozlov so high. I don't remember him taking a lot of undisciplined calls. I do remember him taking penalties to prevent scoring chances from time to time. (Note: the totals for Christensen and Williams are their full season numbers.)

Player	Games Played	Even Strength Minutes	Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	Net Penalties	Penalties Taken Rate (per 60 Minutes)	Penalties Drawn Rate (per 60 Minutes)
ERIC BOULTON	76	7.48	22	12	-10	2.3	1.3
COLIN STUART	33	9.46	8	10	2	1.5	1.9
COLBY ARMSTRONG	82	12.37	21	18	-3	1.2	1.1
VYACHESLAV KOZLOV	82	11.91	18	14	-4	1.1	0.9
CHRIS THORBURN	82	9.42	13	14	1	1	1.1
JOSEPH CRABB	29	9.86	5	5	0	1	1
JIM SLATER	60	8.47	8	11	3	0.9	1.3
RICH PEVERLEY	66	11.73	11	9	-2	0.9	0.7
MARTY REASONER	79	11.53	13	21	8	0.9	1.4
ERIK CHRISTENSEN	64	11.15	10	11	1	0.8	0.9
ERIC PERRIN	78	9.99	9	15	6	0.7	1.2
TODD WHITE	82	12.39	11	11	0	0.6	0.6
JASON WILLIAMS	80	12.16	9	13	4	0.6	0.8
ILYA KOVALCHUK	79	14.87	9	17	8	0.5	0.9
BRYAN LITTLE	79	12.18	8	21	13	0.5	1.3

When it comes to penalties the defenseman are the key guys. They match up against the other super stars and at times they must take a penalty to prevent a high quality scoring chance. If you look at the table below you can see that the worst penalty takers per minute played were Valabik, Schneider, Exelby, Bogosian and Havelid.

Player	Games Played	Even Strength Minutes	Penalties Taken	Penalties Drawn	Net Penalties	Penalties Taken Rate (per 60 Minutes)	Penalties Drawn Rate (per 60 Minutes)
BORIS VALABIK	50	13.05	28	7	-21	2.6	0.6
MATHIEU SCHNEIDER	67	15.48	29	3	-26	1.7	0.2
GARNET EXELBY	59	14.21	19	3	-16	1.4	0.2
ZACH BOGOSIAN	47	14.62	14	10	-4	1.2	0.9
NICLAS HAVELID	78	16.15	21	8	-13	1	0.4
TOBIAS ENSTROM	82	15.89	20	19	-1	0.9	0.9
ANSSI SALMELA	26	12.24	4	5	1	0.8	0.9
NATHAN OYSTRICK	53	13.67	10	7	-3	0.8	0.6
RON HAINSEY	81	14.97	11	4	-7	0.5	0.2

At first glance, it looks like happy days are ahead--three of the worst five have departed the team! However, some caution is in order. Valabik will likely see more minutes as the "tough guy" on defense and he will probably replace some of Exelby's PIMs. New comer Pavel Kubina posted numbers that are almost identical to Nic Havelid last year, so no big change there. Mathieu Schneider's departure could be the biggest gain for the Thrashers in terms of cutting down on PIMs against. The key will be how Zach Bogosian handles playing more minutes against the top scoring forwards in the NHL. If Bogosian can contribute solid defense and stay out of the box that could save the Thrashers some goals against just by keeping them off the PK.

I plugged this data into a spread sheet and made some educated guesses about each defenseman's ice time for the upcoming season. If each player has a similar penalty pattern and if my ice time guesses are accurate--then I estimate the Thrashers could cut the number of Short Handed situations by 22 next year just based on changes to the defense. Even with a brutal PK% of .76, cutting down on 22 PK situations would save 5-6 Goals Against.

Conclusion: Avoiding penalties through improved discipline is not enough to get the Thrashers into the playoffs this upcoming season. But it could get the Thrashers about one quarter of the improvement that they need. To me the recipe for getting into the post-season looks like this: 1) improved discipline--25% of required improvement; 2) improve PK% of just below NHL average--50% of required improvement; and 3) improve ES goal differential by playing the other end more--25% of required improvement. If the Thrashers accomplish all three of those things and get their Total Goal Differential down to zero, they can get into the playoffs.