SB Nation - Alex Tanguay

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

2010 Olympic Hockey Preview:The Tampa Bay Lightning

Cassie McClellan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 17:00:38 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

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The Olympics will be played in Vancouver during the last half of February 2010, and the national rosters are expected to be announced in about a month. Here's a list of potential Lightning players who could participate for their respective countries. All of the players listed have some kind of previous major international hockey tournament experience.

Canada

The problem with picking players for Canada is that Canadians make up over 50% of the players in the NHL. The talent pool is just so large that they could literally field three teams – and have at least two of them medal. So with competition for spots being so fierce, drastic decisions will be made. Guys who would be a shoe-in for any other national team won’t make it on to Team Canada.

In – Steven Stamkos. You’ve got to believe that, with the start he’s had so far this season, he’ll be on the team. And probably as a center (or centre, if you will), which is one of the most competitive positions on the roster. Though, the option may also be there for him to play wing, if necessary. Stamkos has played in a World Juniors Championship and a World Championship.

Bubble – Martin St. Louis. Normally, he’d be on this squad in a heartbeat. But having scored only five goals so far this season, it’s hard to say for sure that he will be. If they’re looking for leadership and a character guy who can contribute in a supportive role, then he will. If they’re looking for just goal scoring, then he won’t. Only the fact that the majority of wingers scoring goals in the NHL this season are left wingers is keeping him in the mix, since Marty plays right wing. He has played for Canada in a World Cup, two World Championships, and on their 2006 Olympic team.

Out – Vincent Lecavalier, Alex Tanguay, Steve Downie. Yes, I said Steve Downie. All of these players have international experience with Team Canada. Tanguay and Downie have both played for Canada in the World Juniors Championship, while Lecavalier has not only played in World Juniors but also in the World Championships, World Cup, and was on the last Olympic squad as an auxiliary player. So far this season, these three guys have not played well enough to crack the overly talented Canadian lineup.

Czech Republic

Out – Lukas Krajicek. I don’t know enough about the Czech team to really make this call, but I’m going to guess that he’ll be a no-go. Krajíček has played well at times, but has also been invisible at others. He just hasn’t been very consistent this season or last season. Krajíček’s chances will probably depend on how many quality defensemen are available for the Czech team. He has played for the Czech World Juniors team and a World Championships team.

Finland

In – Antero Niittymäki. All you have to look at are his statistics for this season. He is sixth in the NHL in goals against, and second in the NHL for save percentage. Sure, his overall record isn’t the best – he’s 6-3-3 this season – but the team he plays on is 10-7-8 25-games in. Niittymäki’s national experience includes having played in World Juniors and the World Championships. He also played in the 2006 Olympics on a silver-medal winning Finnish team, personally winning the tournament MVP as well as being named to the Olympic Tournament’s All-Star Team.

Slovakia

In – Andrej Meszaros. Meszároš has been playing really well recently, particularly in Mattias Öhlund’s absence, so that certainly ups his chances at making the Slovak Olympic team. Another factor that strongly suggests he’ll play for his national team are the many international tournaments he’s already participated in. He’s played in two World Juniors tournaments, two World Chapionships, and took part in the last Olympics. Add to that that he’s only 24 years old, and he’s a definite candidate for the Olympics.

Sweden

In – Mattias Öhlund. No one else on the Lightning roster has played hockey for his country more than Mattias. While his recent ankle injury might have hobbled him momentarily, no other Bolt is more likely to play in the Olympics than he is. Read it and weep, kids: 1994 World Juniors, 1995 World Juniors, 1996 World Juniors, 1997 World Championships, 1998 Olympics, 1998 World Championships, 2001 World Championships, 2002 Olympics, 2005 World Cup, 2006 Olympics. I’m not sure what his personal medal count is, but he does at least own one Olympic gold medal.

Bubble – Victor Hedman. Sweden has a number of good defensemen – both in the NHL and in Europe – so it’s hard to say whether or not the soon-to-be 19-year-old rookie will get the call. He might have to wait his turn until the next Olympics in Russia in 2014, assuming that the NHL participates in those. Even if Hedman gets his chance this February, he likely won’t play much, simply because of seniority. He has played in two World Junior Championships thus far in is hockey career.

United States

In – Ryan Malone. Invited to the USA Hockey Olympic Orientation Camp in Chicago last August, Malone has proven that he deserved not only deserved that invite, but that he should be on the Olympic team. He has 15 goals and eight assists for 23 points in 25 games. Malone has participated in two World Championships.

Bubble – Jeff Halpern. Halpern is a longtime participant with USA Hockey. He is only second to Öhlund on this list in the number of times he’s played in international tournaments. He was not invited to the US Olympic Orientation Camp, however. His resurgence playing now as a winger instead of at his natural position, center, may have helped his cause.

Game 28 Preview: Avalanche at Lightning

David Driscoll-Carignan — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000


Colorado Avalanche	5:30 MT / 7:30 ET / 12:30 GMT	Tampa Bay Lightning
14-8-5	November 30th, 2009	10-6-8
33 pts	St Pete Times Forum	28 pts
4th in West	Tampa, FL	8th in East

The Colorado Avalanche suffered a huge blow on Saturday when they lost David Jones to a torn ACL, but there's no time to dwell on the disappointing turn of events. The Avs begin a key 5-game road trip tonight in Tampa. Colorado slipped out of the top spot in the NW and dropped from 3rd to 4th in the Western Conference standings this week. They need to stop that slide quickly; seven teams are behind the Avs by just 5 points or less and Colorado needs points to stay ahead of them. Obviously, a few of those elusive 60-minute efforts would really come in handy this week...

Although the Avalanche don't face the Lightning all that often, there are a lot of familiar faces on the Lightning. Besides old friend Alex Tanguay, there are 5 other former players who've played for a NW division team: Mathias Ohlund (Vancouver), David Hale (Calgary) and Kurtis Foster, Stephane "That Ass" Veilleux, Todd Fedoruk (Minnesota). The Lightning also have notable players in Steve Stamkos, Vinny Lecavalier, Martin St Louis and some Victor Hedman fellow. Add in Jeff Halpern, who always seems to do well against the Avalanche, and you've got a lot of familiarity for a team

As you can see by the tale of the tape below, the Lightning, like the Avalanche, are relatively unspectacular on paper. Probably the most notable stats for the Lightning would be that they are 27th in the league in penalty killing and 29th in penalties taken. Not a great combination. The 17 penalty minutes per game is a bit misleading, however, as they include a lot of misconducts and coincidental fighting majors (forward Zenon Konopka has 9 majors and 3 misconducts and leads the league with 93 penalty minutes). In actuality, both teams average 4.2 times shorthanded per game.

A depressing stat to help your Monday get off on the correct foot: the Lightning are averaging about 600 more people per game this year in attendance.

Colorado			Tampa Bay
7th	33	Points	19th	28
10th	2.96	GF/G	18th	2.75
21st	2.93	GA/G	15th	2.79
20th	19.4	PP%	16th	20.2
16th	79.6	PK%	27th	76.2
30th	25.9	S/G	26th	27.8
26th	32.7	SA/G	23rd	31.8
29th	46.6	FO%	11th	51.3
12th	13.1	PIM/G	29th	17.0
Stastny	25 pts	Top Scorer	Stamkos	29 pts

Raw Charge

Avalanche vs Lightning coverage

Today in Colorado Avalanche History: 2007. Subbing for an injured Joe Sakic, TJ Hensick makes his NHL debut in San Jose.

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 23: versus the New York Rangers

Cassie McClellan — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 18:30:02 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

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The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Rangers 5-1.

In a game that saw the return of Vinny Prospal, former assistant coach Mike Sullivan, and former head coach John Tortorella, the Lightning dominated in most categories on the scoring sheet. After a brief delay to replace the glass that Andrej Meszaros cracked with a slapshot 40 seconds into the game, the Bolts took the game and ran with it. They even managed to get Henrik Lundqvist, who is a very good goaltender in his own right, pulled halfway through the second period.

The game was well-played by the Lightning. While no one was particularly spectacular - at least, not in my opinion - they all played together as a cohesive unit. That's something we haven't really seen yet from them. Oh, certain lines have done that, sure, but not the entire team altogether at the same time.

Other than Vincent Lecavalier playing a little crankier and edgier than usual, no one player really stood out in my mind. In fact, one or two were remarkably quiet. Ryan Malone had a quiet night, as did Alex Tanguay. And while Mike Smith was solid, it was hardly his best game. But that's a good thing that no one player was carrying the team. That means that it was truly a team effort.

The most important part of the game was that the Lightning were able to hold on to the lead in a convincing fashion. It was too bad that they were unable to preserve the shutout for Smith, but they also didn't let the Rangers back into it. The last half of the game was very well played in that they managed to maintain a multi-goal lead instead of squandering it - as they have so many times this season.

The next game is tonight against the Dallas Stars. Game time is 8:30 PM Eastern. Stop in and say hi on the game thread.

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 22: versus the Toronto Maple Leafs

Cassie McClellan — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 19:03:36 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

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The Tampa Bay Lightning received their first regulation loss at home on the season with the Toronto Maple Leafs beating them 4-3.

(So if you write a game recap, but no one reads it because it's a holiday, did the game really happen...?)

To be quite frank - or perhaps Niitty, as the case might be - the Lightning deserved this loss. This was a game that they could have won relatively easily. The Maple Leafs, while playing well enough to win, weren't playing as well as they did the last time these two teams met. The Lightning had flashes of brilliance, at times, but weren't really mentally into this game. And it showed on the scoreboard.

Antero Niittymaki did not have his best game. He looked a little slow, reaction-wise. But he's so solid positionally, that he wasn't caught out of his net too many times. However, he was letting up some big ol' rebounds for the Leafs to get. And the defense wasn't clearing them, either.

The defense was backing up into their own zone, again, so that gave the Leafs more chances than they should have had. A couple of times, they were caught out of position as well. Andrej Meszaros had a good night, but the rest were really hit and miss.

It's interesting to see how much of an impact Mattias Ohlund's absence has been on the blue line. Ohlund has only been with the Lightning for 22 games now, and he's been sorely missed. Not just for his abilities, but also for his leadership. Much of the defense looks a bit lost without him.

The best forwards of the game were easily Vincent Lecavalier, Jeff Halpern, and Ryan Malone. Malone had nine of the 17 total hits for the Lightning. Yes - nine. He also had a goal, as did Vinny. Lecavalier was 14-9 (61%) in the faceoff circle, though he did have three giveaways - one of while led to a Toronto goal.

Halpern was moved to right win for this game, on a line with Lecavalier and Alex Tanguay. While Tanguay had a quiet night, Halpern and Lecavalier really clicked. They had instant chemistry on the ice together, and it showed. It was impressive, actually.

In all honesty, I'd like to see Malone play on that line with Vinny and Jeff instead of Tanguay. Tanguay had some success with Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos, though. And that might just solve the chemistry problem with the top two lines. Although, I'm not sure how much Halpern would like being moved permanently to wing for the season.

Their next game is on Friday, 27 November at 7:30 pm ET. The New York Rangers are visiting Tampa. John Tortorella, Mike Sullivan, and Vinny Prospal come back for a visit. Ought to be a good game.

Habs vs Former Habs at the Quarter Point

Robert L — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 04:00:24 -0000

I haven't taken a look at this since the 10 game mark (October 27), but it seems that the former Habs players are now gaining a slight edge on their current counterparts.

At the quarter season point, it is still too soon to draw much of a conclusion, especially considering how unstable the Canadiens' lineup is these days

Most of the players on both sides have kept up their early season pace going, with exceptions being Tanguay, Lang and Koivu, who have picked it up for the former Habs and Marc-Andre Bergeron, who now leads all Canadiens' D in scoring. Tailing off somewhat, are the Bruins' Michael Ryder and Steve Begin.

Most notable among these statistics may just be the save percentages - added to this list for the first time here. I chose to include them for obvious reasons, that being the Canadiens duos numbers as compared to the former netminders now tending goal for stronger clubs.

The Habs much maligned duo of Halak and Price take a beating a little too often, but as it appears here, they could just as well be the team's saving grace.

*Players below are ranking by points and not in comparison.

Jaroslav Halak 8-5-3-0 2.62-9.04 / Jose Theodore 13-5-3-4 3.24-8.83 (Capitals)

Carey Price 13-5-8-0 2.99-9.06 / Cristobal Huet 15-9-4-1 2.25-9.02 (Blackhawks)

Marc-Andre Bergeron 14-3-4-7 / 21-4-7-11 Mark Streit (Islanders)

Roman Hamrlik 20-4-2-6 / 19-0-8-8 Craig Rivet (Sabres)

Jaroslav Spacek 21-1-5-6 / 19-2-5-7 Francois Beauchemin (Maple Leafs)

Paul Mara 21-0-6-6 / 15-2-4-6 Ron Hainsey (Thrashers)

Josh Gorges 11-1-1-2 / 6-0-2-2 Sheldon Souray (Oilers)

Hal Gill 14-1-0-1 / 16-0-0-0 Mike Komisarek (Maple Leafs)

Totals - Defense　

Habs: Total GP: 101 / Goals: 10 /Assists: 18 / Points: 28

Former Habs: Total GP: 96 / Goals: 8 / Assists: 26 / Points: 34

Tomas Plekanec 21-4-15-19 / 20-6-10-16 Mike Ribeiro (Stars)

Mike Cammalleri 21-8-8-16 / 19-3-9-12 Mikhail Grabovski (Maple Leafs)

Brian Gionta 19-8-5-13 / 18-4-8-12 Alex Tanguay (Lightning)

Scott Gomez 21-2-9-11 / 20-5-6-11 Robert Lang (Coyotes)

Glen Metropolit 15-4-6-10 / 18-4-6-10 Alex Kovalev (Senators)

Travis Moen 21-4-3-7 / 20-2-7-9 Steve Begin (Bruins)

Andrei Kostitsyn 21-2-4-6 / 15-2-6-8 Saku Koivu (Ducks)

Maxim Lapierre 21-1-4-5 / 20-4-3-7 Michael Ryder (Bruins)

Max Pacioretty 21-2-2-4 / 20-2-5-7 Sergei Samsonov (Hurricanes)

Guillaume Latendresse 21-2-1-3 / 14-3-2-5 Arron Asham (Flyers)

Georges Laraque 8-0-1-1 / 20-2-3-5 Christopher Higgins (Rangers)

Matt D'Agostini 11-1-0-1 / 20-1-0-1 Tom Kostopoulos (Hurricanes)

Totals - Forwards　

Habs: Total GP: 221 / Goals: 38 /Assists: 58 / Points: 96

Former Habs: Total GP: 224 / Goals: 38 / Assists: 64 / Points: 102

Totals - Team

Habs: Total GP: 322 / Goals: 48 /Assists: 76 / Points: 124

Former Habs: Total GP: 320 / Goals: 46 / Assists: 90 / Points: 136

Incidentally, I'm not much of a video gamer when it comes to such things as NHL 2010 or EA Sports and stuff. (I used to joke that X-Box sounded like a former girlfriend!) A reader of this site has been looking into aligning the teams above against one another for a series of games. That sounded like an interesting offer, and I took him up on it. Once the results come forth, you'll read about it here.

The west coast doldrums link dump

John Fontana — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 18:58:20 -0000

I hate when the Bolts seem to fall off the earth for a few days every season. It might be during west coast spins like now, or maybe a Canada trip... Regardless, it ends up feeling like the Lightning have shut down, or the NHL in general, even though that could not be further from the truth:

Paul Ranger has touched base via text. Nothing else is known... Mysterious! [Lightning Shout]
Some people are never going to be happy with Alex Tanguay and will keep seeing him in an ill light because he replaced Vaclav Prospal. See the example of which at Bolts by the Bay
Jon Jordan celebrates what a difference a year makes with the make up and outlook on the Tampa Bay Lightning [Hockey Buzz]
Central Scouting has released Top-25 lists of draft prospects, sorted by league. [Hockey Prospects]
An NHL owner actually vouched for Jim Balsillie? May wonders never cease... [From The Rink]
SB Nation's NHL Power Rankings for the week are posted -- the Bolts hold at 10th place in the east. [SB Nation / NHL ]
It's an epidemic that's still ongoing -- #unpublishedNHLbooks. Funny, outrageous, silly. WIN [Twitter]
It reminds me of Jay Feaster having to re-up Lecavalier / St. Louis and then Richards: The Chicago Blackhawks are navigating tough waters with Toews, Kane and Keith [ TSN ]

Anything else itneresting going on? Leave it in the comments...

Tampa Bay Lightning Game 18: at the Phoenix Coyotes

Cassie McClellan — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 14:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Browse more photos »

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Phoenix Coyotes 4-1.

Because of the time difference – and having to wake up for work this morning – I was only able to watch the first two periods of this game. The three guys who have had problems scoring this season scored all of the goals on the night, and the guy that’s been struggling in net won the game. And, most importantly, they did all of this in regulation time.

Vincent Lecavalier opened and ended the scoring, breaking his eight-game goalless streak, and scoring his third and fourth goals of the season. Martin St. Louis broke his 13-game goalless streak with his fourth goal of the season. And Alex Tanguay also scored his fourth goal of the season.

Seem to be a lot of fourth goals being scored there. Strange. Mike Smith bucks that number four-trend with getting his third win of the season in a solid game for him.

Statistically, however, the Lightning lagged behind Phoenix in most categories. They were outshot 31-19. They only won 46% of their faceoffs – Steven Stamkos being the worst winning 2-11 (15%), while Zenon Konopka being the best winning 8-5 (62%). I would guess that the wrist that Stamkos jammed in practice last week is bothering him more than he’s been admitting.

They were out-hit 27-24. The usual suspects were throwing themselves around for the Lightning: birthday boy Stephane Veilleux and Andrej Meszaros both had three hits. Stamkos, a bit surprisingly, also had three hits as well.

Another surprising stat on the night was blocked shots. With Mattias Ohlund out with one of those ambiguous "lower body" injuries (he was reportedly wearing a supportive boot, however), some other players took up his slack. Interestingly enough, those two players were Ryan Malone and Lecavalier (two blocked shots each). That’s not exactly what you want from those guys, especially since blocking shots puts a player in a more likely position to get injured. But it is admirable that they were willing to sacrifice their bodies to help the defense and Smith out.

One more statistic of interest – the team is only carrying 21 players on this Western road trip. And one of those players, and previously mentioned, is the injured Ohlund. They’re allowed to have a 23-man roster. However, Matt Smaby and Ryan Craig were sent down to the AHL team in Norfolk on conditioning assignments – presumably because Tocchet and his staff didn’t anticipate that they’d be played these two games.

Overall, this was a great team effort. It was a solid game by everyone, and the big names were contributing like people have expected them to. It was an easy and confident win for a team that really needed one. Let’s hope that this is the beginning of something good for them.

The next game is against the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday, 19 November. Since it’s in SoCal (Southern California, for you non-West Coasters), it will be a 10 pm ET start. Ugh.

Let’s all take a moment and be thankful that most of the Lightning’s games are in the Eastern Time zone, okay?

Highlights (from NHL.TV)

Flames and Habs Always a Heartwarming Duel

Robert L — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:46:18 -0000

When I think of the Calgary Flames, (in town to play the Habs tonight), thoughts of 1986 and 1989 immediately spring to mind. There are great memories, some not so good, but hearing someone say the Flames name is like playing word association with the hockey flashpoints of my brain.

A friend actually wanted to try this once with hockey terms and name. It went something like:

Friend: "Boston Bruins?"

Me: "Too many men".

"Mark Messier?"........."Bag of chips".

"Guy Lalfeur?"........"50 X 6".

"Tiger Williams?"......."Paper bags".

"Calgary Flames?"......."Brian Skrudland".

Both the 1986 and 1989 Stanley Cup finals were classics in my mind, as it was the last time two Canadian teams met for the Cup.

Montreal and Calgary (the Tigers) first met for the Cup in 1924 - in an NHL East versus WHL West format.

Jean Perron, probably one of the most disliked coaches the Canadiens have ever had, started a Habs coach trend in '86, as he was the first of three successive first year Habs coaches to go straight to the Cup. Pat Burns in 1989 lost to Calgary, Jacques Demers won it in 1993.

So I have a soft spot in my heart for the Flames, and that's not to be confused with a hard spot in my pants. I'm not in love with 'em, but I sure do appreciate them.

It probably started back when they held off the Oilers in Game 7 of the second round in 1986, after Steve Smith did every Habs' fan a favor by banking the series' winning goals off the back of goalie Grant Fuhr's leg.

By 1989, the Flames were a better team than Montreal. They had Lanny McDonald, Gilmour, Fleury, Nieuwendyk, McInnis, Suter, Joel Otto, Joe Mullen......a freaking powerhouse!

The one edge the Habs might have had was in goal - Patrick Roy over Vernon in a heartbeat, right?

After that '89 final the Flames fell into some sort of abyss for a dozen or so years, only to rise like a phoenix in 2004.

Okay, that anology was odd, but in the 2004 finals, I was cheering badly for Calgary, desperately not wanting to see a team from Tampa win the Cup.

The Flames were screwed over big time in Game 6 of those finals, when officials completely missed a chance review a Martin Gelinas shot that skimmed just under Nikolai Khabibulin's pad past the goal line.

The third period goal would have given the Flames the lead at a crucial time in the contest. Had they held on, it would have been game over for Tampa. A different camera angle caught the puck, clearly in the white behind the goal line five minutes too late. and the Lightning went on to tie the game and sending it into overtime. Tampa wound up winning Games 6 & 7 and the Cup in the process.

Not to take away any merit from a hardworking Lightning bunch, but there ought to be a Stanley Cup Champions 2004 banner hanging from the roof in Calgary, next their lone 1989 one.

The 1989 Cup loss in coach Burns' rookie season was the only time ever in Forum history that an opponent won the Cup on Montreal ice.

For most of this generation of Habs fans, that 1986 season is perhaps their Canadiens watershed moment. Montreal, after years of Islander and Oiler dominance, were back on top of the hockey world, albeit briefly.

Those were great times to be a Canadiens fan. Montreal would reach the final again three seasons later, before heading back to win it all in 1993. This was the last period that the Canadiens stood amongst the league elite.

Going back to '86, what a team of warriors that was.

Skip the elite players for a sec and check this list of muckers.

Bob Gainey, Brian Skrudland, Mike McPhee, Ryan Walter, Claude Lemieux, Rick Green, Craig Ludwig, Lucien Deblois, Mario Tremblay, Chris Nilan.

There was scoring finess with Naslund, Bobby Smith, Kjell (Flash In The Pan) Dahlin, and young Richer.

The blueline had a pair of Hall of Famers in Larry Robinson and Chris (He'll get in!) Chelios, rounded out by three guys who could move the puck in Gaston, Svobado and Kurvers.

The role players were Kordic, Lalor, Rooney and Maley, and each had their moments that spring.

But it's that Skrudland goal....

Who can forget the overtime winner in Game 2, scored nine second into extra play?

Pure....bliss!

We'll always have the Flames to thank for those great memories, with an ackowleging nod to Steve Smith. Calgary has always brought the best out in the Canadiens.

Just for fun, here's a list of 29 former Flames and Canadiens who have worn both the burning "C" and the "CH" in their time.

Betcha didn't think there were so many!

Steve Begin, Randy Bucyk, Valeri Bure, Mike Cammalleri, Andrew Cassels, Eric Charron, Guy Charron, Tom Chorske, Craig Conroy, Jim Dowd, Brian Engblom, Doug Gilmour, Roman Hamrlik, Mark Lamb, Eric Landry, Gary Leeman, Jocelyn Lemieux, Bill Lindsay, Bob Murdoch, Ric Nattress, Yves Racine, Rob Ramage, Doug Risebrough, Yves Sarault, Todd Simpson, Brian Skrudland, Alex Tanguay, Rick Wamsley, Zarley Zalapski.

Somewhere in my collection of Habs memorabillia, lies a copy of the 1986 Sports Illustrated issue with Larry Robinson holding the Cup high above his head at Calgary's Saddledome. Luckily, I was able to access the actual pages online for reprint here. The print text is small, but clicking on them enlarges the page for better reading. Enjoy the flashback!

Below: A post game brawl from 1986 and the Flames Cup win in1989

Images courtesy of Getty / Sports Illustrated

Two recaps of 1986 from the Canadiens official site

A pinnacle moment from the Legends of Hockey site

Matchsticks and Gasoline

On the cusp of something special?

John Fontana — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 21:53:49 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

Ryan Malone has been a bright spot for the Tampa Bay Lightning so far this season, notching 10 goals in 15 games. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette)

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Inconsistent is a way to describe the way the Bolts have played the first 15 games of this season. For every win, there is a loss or a poor showing in the shootout again that robs the fans of confidence in the team. For every goal scored by Steven Stamkos or Ryan Malone, there is a scoring drought for another marquee forward on the team -- Vincent Lecavalier and Alex Tanguay at first, and now Martin St. Louis.

For all the upgrades on defense last summer, the Bolts have been consistently failing to clear the zone. They've been struggling with defensive assignments and generally hanging either Antero Niittymaki or Mike Smith out to dry at times.

Suffice it to say, the Bolts are not firing on all cylinders yet. But rather than be discouraged, I ask the fans to look at the standings as of this morning:

Southeast Standings

	GP	W	L	OTL	PT
Washington	17	10	3	4	24
Tampa Bay	15	6	4	5	17
Atlanta	13	6	6	1	13
Florida	15	5	9	1	11
Carolina	16	2	11	3	7

(updated 11.8.2009 at 7:37 AM EST)

Seven points out of first place, two games in hand. Squarely in second place in the division that's riddled by both mediocrity and injury. For all the panic that erupted among the Lightning faithful over the last 10 days when things have gone wrong, there is a rich amount of promise with this team and where they can go. It can get better, and it's likely to.

Look at the offense. And while there is concern about lack of goal production from St. Louis and Lecavalier, St. Louis is still on a pace for 92 points for the season, and Lecavalier's on a pace for 76. Tanguay is on a pace for 49 as well.

The promise of these averages is that consistency is yet to truly take hold. St. Louis has averaged 29 goals per season during his previous eight seasons with the Lightning, so there's reason to believe he'll end his goal drought soon enough. It's also why Tanguay's nine points aren't reason to label him a bust. After all, he's scored three goals and notched seven points in the last six games alone. Lecavalier has averaged 30 goals a season for his career. That's reason enough to realize his goal-scoring pace will increase as the season goes on.

Of course, that's only one side fo the ice,t he Lightning defense need to play above the quality of game that was common place late last season -- you know, AHL caliber. Moving the puck and clearing the zone should not be an issue for the defensive corps - who are largely a group of NHL veterans. Buying into the system and having confidence in their own abilities is a must... Oh, and a little aggression never hurt anyone (meaning Mattias Ohlund should not be the only one leveling players with hits).

These players are not a thrown-together squad, making up for injuries and other roster subtractions. Glimpses of the promise is there. When it all comes together - look out.

Poll

Will the Bolts actually be in contention for the Southeast Division crown?

Yes -- if they can find consistency, they'll be formidable

94 votes

No -- the inconsistency is a sign of their mediocrity. They are also-rans

19 votes

Too early to speculate. Ask me again in January.

36 votes

149 votes | Poll has closed