SB Nation - Pavel Datsyuk

Dallas Stars Winter Wonderland: Cooked Wings, Good Feelings and Turco Trade Talk

Brandon Worley — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 15:00:57 -0000

The scene outside Defending Big D headquarters this morning. And it's still snowing.

It's an interesting mood Dallas sports fans are in this morning. As the holidays approach, the feeling among us all has shifted a bit from where we were just 24 hours prior. Apprehension, worry and a lingering sense of foreboding was creeping into our psyche as the feeling that the season was creeping into seriously disappointing territory grew.

Dallas Stars 4, Detroit Red Wings 3.

Dallas Cowboys 24, New Orleans Saints 17

I understand that not every Stars fan is a Cowboys fan, but for this writer the two teams live side by side in my heart. I have lived and breathed the Dallas Cowboys and Dallas Stars for nearly my entire life and I find that at times my health, attitude and well-being are adversely affected by these two sports teams. Lately I've tried my best to distance my emotions from the outcomes of the games and I've been doing a pretty decent job of turning off the television after another loss and just...moving on. Business as usual. Yesterday, however, was the first time all season that I have jumped out my chair, punching the air and screaming like a banshee after a Stars goal. All while chatting on ESPN.

While the parallels between yesterday's two big wins aren't exactly on the same level of magnitude, I cannot express to you how big the victory over the Red Wings was for this team. After the jump, some thoughts not only on yesterday's game but on the near-future of the Dallas Stars, some trade talk, and further musing on the financial status of the team.

It's tough to say that the win yesterday over the Red Wings was 'season saving', but it certainly kept the Stars from falling into a fairly significant hole in the Western Conference standings. As it stands now:

#	Team	Points
5	Los Angeles Kings	47
6	Calgary Flames	44
7	Phoenix Coyotes	44
8	Detroit Red Wings	41
9	Dallas Stars	41
10	Vancouver Canucks	40

The Stars kept themselves right where they wanted to be after a severely disappointing road trip where they gained nor lost much in the standings. Yet after winning just one of their past six games, including one demoralizing effort against basement-dwelling Carolina, the Stars were in danger of falling into the abyss. Starting with Detroit, the Stars were beginning one hell of a tough stretch of games, all against Western Conference and teams and all but one against teams above them in the standings. To start with a loss would have put the Stars back in 10th place in the division and four points out of 8th; not insurmountable, but the loss could have set off one hell of a bomb. The Stars would have lost four straight and would be trying to get their act together against some of the toughest competition they've faced all season. A loss yesterday could have been the spark that effectively ended the Dallas Stars season before it was halfway over.

Now, the win doesn't absolve the Stars of future failure. They could lose four straight and find themselves down int the hole anyway. Yet the win over the Red Wings put a temporary salve of a bubbling wound and gave the Stars a reprieve from all of the questions and doubts that had started to infect every aspect of the team.

What was most enlightening about the game yesterday was how it was finally a complete 60 minute effort from the entire team. Marc Crawford didn't do anything crazy with the lines, yet the team came out with more determination and resolve than I've seen all season. Sure, we've witnessed some good starts before but that usually faded as the game wore on. Yesterday, the Stars not only responded from an early 1-0 deficit at the first intermission, but they also won the second period and evened the game up with a couple of huge goals by James Neal. The big goal by Karlis Skrastins a little over a minute into the third period set the Stars up to have one of their better defensive efforts with a lead this season. There were some tense moments, but the Stars held the Red Wings to just six shots on net and didn't allow Pavel Datsyuk to continue to skate all over them like he had done in the first 40 minutes.

Maxime Fortunus had a solid NHL debut and we saw what he's done for most of his career in the AHL; play an intelligent and physical game without being flashy. He had a couple of nifty clears of the puck from around the crease, covered his side of the net perfectly and overall didn't make many mistakes. He started off paired with Jeff Woywitka but as it became apparent that Matt Niskanen was having yet another terrible game, Crawford put him with Karlis Skrastins and the Stars suddenly had two pairs of shutdown defensemen. In fact, Fortunus finished with four more minutes of ice time than Woywitka and Niskanen, even seeing significant time on the penalty kill. He's not your average NHL rookie blueliner and he's going to be very solid for the Stars while they deal with the injuries to Mark Fistric and Trevor Daley.

The best part of this game that I took away was the Stars undying resolve to never give up; they counter-punched all game long and were able to overcome some seriously shoddy goaltending miscues. Marty Turco had one of the most schizophrenic games he's had a a Dallas Star, making several incredible "how did he do that?" saves and then turning around and allowing two of his softest goals of the season. His failed clearing attempt was laughable, yet it speaks to the confidence he has when playing the puck. Unfortunately, he swung and missed and the Red Wings had themselves an easy tap in goal.

Yet it was the horrendous attempt at a save on Pavel Datsyuk's goal that could have been the back-breaker. The Stars had just scored two goals in the second period to take a 2-1 lead and Turco allowed a goal on what could only be described as a 40mph changeup. Now, they gave the goal to Datsyuk because I'm guessing he touched it, but replays showed that Bertuzzi's off-speed pass barely changed direction if at all before slipping between Turco's pads. Now whether Turco was bracing for Datsyuk to receive the pass and make amove is unknown, but the genesis of the play was the simple fact that Turco's stick was nowhere close to being in position. Keeping the paddle square and on the ice would have been enough.

In a game like this, with the Stars playing so well and able to come back and take the lead in the second period, allowing a goal of that nature in unacceptable. I've been the biggest supporter of Marty Turco over the years and I still stand behind him, but allowing goals like that leads to lost confidence from the fans and you wonder if it affects the team at all. It seems every game one aspect of the Stars' team falls apart and lately the goaltending has been incredibly suspect after pretty much playing well all season long.

With Turco allowing a couple more soft goals yesterday, the murmurs among the fans and elsewhere started to rise again about the possibility of trading Turco. My stance on this situation is still the same as it was last week; the Stars aren't trading Marty Turco as long as they are within spitting distance of a playoff spot. The team believes that Turco is the guy for the rest of this season and despite his recent struggles he's still the best option for this team at this time. Some state that the Stars need to get value for Turco before he potentially departs via free agency, but it's impossible to say if there's even a slight chance the Stars can maintain the same level of goaltending we have now, even with their struggles. Who on the open market is as good as Turco? Which teams are willing to take on his salary and able to give up the value the Stars deserve for trading a top 10 goaltender?

More importantly, which players in the Stars system are you ready to hand over the reigns to? Do you have faith that Alex Auld can hold the fort for the rest of the season, and is there any of the Stars' prospects able to step up and take the job? If Turco leaves, whether via trade or free agency, the Stars are going to have some short-term issues at goaltender on their hands. You're not going to be able to secure the young players this team has that they desperately need to keep, you're not going to be able to acquire a big defensemen and you're not going to get a top-flight goaltender all in the same summer. Not with this team's financial situation.* Is your best option right now to lock up Turco on a two-year deal and allow him to play with either Matt Climie, Richard Bachman or Brent Krahn under him (and Climie and Krahn's contract aren't very long either) and then hand over the team to them? Tyler Beskorowany is on his way as well, but he's two to three years away from the NHL, at least.

*I understand that Stars fans are hoping that a sale of the Texas Rangers is going to suddenly free up cash, but this team won't feel any effects of the sale until next season, best scenario. Expect the Stars to operate with a budget until Tom Hicks gets everything straightened out, and there are more, longer-term, pressing needs on this team than an expensive goaltender free agent.

So now the Stars have confidence and their goal scoring back (4.0 goals-per game the past week) and are embarking on a tough stretch of games, continuing tomorrow night with San Jose. They got the easy part out of the way with a big home win over the hated Red Wings; now comes the hard part. For this team to truly get past this 35 game funk they've been in ever since the season started, they have to find a way to win multiple games in a row. San Jose comes next, and the Sharks are trying to get over their own miniature slump.

I'm expected to see and hear a raucous AAC crowd on Monday night.

I'm also expecting to do some big fist pump, air punches.

Go Stars.

Stars defeats Red Wings 4-3

joehass — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 02:30:47 -0000

More photos » by Tim Sharp - AP

Krystofer Barch and Brad May renew acquaintances for their sixth battle.

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On an afternoon in which the Detroit Red Wings had a 33-21 advantage in shots and a 63-33 attempts advantage on the road against the Dallas Stars, it would seem likely that they would get two points out of it.

But a series of bad defensive plays, odd bounces, and a mediocre performance by Jimmy Howard negated a pair of three-point performances by Todd Bertuzzi and Pavel Datsyuk gave the Stars the 4-3 victory Saturday afternoon.

Karlis Skrastins had two goals for the Stars, including the game-winner 1:16 into the third period.

The game featured the sixth battle in the epic struggle between Brad May and Krystofer Barch. Both sides got in strong punches, but the battle finished effectively as a draw. Afterwards May was seen laughing with Barch between the penalty boxes.

In the first period, Bertuzzi was driving towards the Dallas net and took a shot on Marty Turco. Turco was able to put a stick on it, but in the process of trying to push the puck out of the crease, misplayed it. As it popped into the air, Tomas Holmstrom took a swing at the puck to a wide open net, and connected to get his 13th goal of the year.

In the second, Mike Ribeiro took the puck after a dump into the corner to the left of Howard. Four Red Wings tracked towards him, which left Skrastins wide open to the right of Howard. Skrastins didn't miss for his first goal of the season, making it 1-1.

Richards skated in direct along the boards. He passed it to James Neal in front of the net. The puck went off the toe of his skate, then deflected off Bertuzzi's stick and past a moving Howard to make it 2-1 Stars.

Three minutes later, Bertuzzi came in across the blue line and the puck went lightly off Datsuyk and past a completely stunned Turco. It was Datsuyk's eighth.

Sixty-six seconds later, Skrastin's shot from 55 feet away was stick saved by Howard. But Howard lost track of the puck as it went into the air and landed on Neal's stick. He didn't even pause, putting it past a surprised Howard for his second of the afternoon to jump the Stars back out in front.

With 60 seconds left, Datsuyk skated around the back of the Stars net, draped in Skrastins. He pushed the pust towards Bertuzzi, who slapped it in past Turco for his 10th of the season and third point of the night. It was 3-3 going into the third period.

But only 76 seconds into the third, Brad Richards sends a backhand to Skrastins, who put it along the far post against an out-of-position Howard. It was the second of the game and his third point of the afternoon to get the winner.

The Wings head to Chicago Sunday to take on the Blackhawks at Madison Avenue.

Player of the game: Pavel Datsuyk. In addition to the goal and two assists, Datsuyk was completely in the zone, with crisp, heads-up passing and smart playmaking.

Skrastins The Sniper? Dallas Stars Outgun Red Wings 4-3

Art_M — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 23:20:47 -0000

More photos » by Tim Sharp - AP

The three certainties in life: death, taxes and Kris Barch / Brad May fighting whenever they play against each other. (AP Photo/Tim Sharp)

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So to start off, lets go over the list of guys who the Dallas Stars should be leaning on for offense this season and see how they did today! Brad Richards? Two assists. Mike Modano? No points but did have 8 shots on goal which led all players on either team. Loui Eriksson? Two assists in the game as well. James Neal? Two goals and an assist. Karlis Skrastins?

Woah... Wait... Who?! Karlis Skrastins? With two goals - one of them being the game winner that he scored very early in the third period - and an assist today? Uhhh... Ok, sure!

Karlis Skrastins having a three point game - a career high for him of course - seemed about as likely as seeing the Dallas Stars putting a solid sixty minutes worth of hockey against the Detroit Red Wings who came into the game having won four in a row and five of their last six, but yet both the solid sixty minutes of play and the Skrastins offensive outburst happened and your Dallas Stars won their first game in regulation time since December 3rd.

Huge win this afternoon for your Dallas Stars as they beat the Red Wings 4-3. We here at DBD have talked the last few days about how this next stretch of games over the next two weeks or so for the Stars will be a big test, so starting it off with a win over one of the club's main rivals is a great start. Also things suddenly don't seem quite as bad for the team standings wise when you consider that the Stars have earned 10 out of a possible 16 points so far this month.

But as is fitting in a season where fans on almost a nightly basis are never sure of what exactly they'll see from the Dallas Stars, today's game saw offense from maybe the most unlikely source possible: A stay-at-home defenseman who is know more for blocking shots than taking them!

Now granted the Red Wings are beat up and a hurting bunch right now with eight of their regulars out with various injuries, but they are still the Red Wings, they still had Pavel Datsyuk and Todd Bertuzzi in their lineup - the only two players who the Stars just couldn't seem to contain - and lest we forget the job goalie Jimmy Howard did against the Stars in their last meeting.

The Stars were full value for their win today. It wasn't a perfect win but it was maybe the best we've seen this team play over the last few weeks. The biggest thing - and as you might be able to tell, I can't say it enough - is that it was a complete game. There were no five minute lapses where the roof caved in on the team, or periods where 18 of 20 minutes were spent in the Stars zone, and maybe most importantly when the Stars did have a one goal lead late in the third period they didn't go into a cheesecloth-like prevent defense and allow the opposition to fire at will on Marty Turco until they got a goal to tie it.

Do I even dare suggest that the third period today almost kinda sorta looked like the Dallas Stars of old where they'd get a one goal lead and then "lock it down" defensively for a win? Ok, maybe they are still a ways away from that kind of play and heck, coach Marc Crawford may not even want the Stars to win that way... But in the third period the Stars stuck to playing strong fundamental hockey that both offensive and defensive players played all game and ended up with a W.

Playing strong fundamental hockey... Where have we heard that before? Lets hope they can keep it up against the Sharks!

Defending Big D Three Stars:

1: Karlis Skrastins (DAL) - Oh yeah, on top of his three point night he also had 2 blocked shots. A career game for him!

2: Pavel Datsyuk (DET) - Three point night and the Stars couldn't prevent him from setting up goals even when three guys surounded him.

3: James Neal (DAL) - Six hits to go along with his three point game and as an added bonus, neither of his two goals came off his visor!

Howard, Wings Blank Bolts 3-0; Lose Zetterberg to Injury

MrNorrisTrophy — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:38:49 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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Jimmy Howard earned his first career shutout as the Red Wings defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-0 on Thursday night. But the win came after a huge loss as Henrik Zetterberg was injured on a collision with Swedish teammate Mattias Ohlund. Zetterberg's long term status is unknown as of now and leaves the Red Wings without 9 regulars...9 I said.

Zetterberg was injured in the first period while reaching for a stray pass from Ville Leino. Zetterberg was outstretched and the much larger Ohlund put his shoulder into Zetterberg--a clean hit by all means--and dropped him to the ice. Patrick Eaves took immediate exception to the play (finally, someone standing up) and was shoving Ohlund along the boards.

The Wings scored at 8:24 of the first as Drew Miller and Brian Rafalski combined for a great goal. Miller came off the bench and Rafalski spotted him from deep in the defensive zone and chucked a puck up ice that Miller knocked down to have a breakaway against Tampa Bay's goalie Mike Smith. Smith went for the poke check and Miller flipped it up over just before the attempt to score his 4th of the year, also coming against his former team. Take that TB front office!

Todd Bertuzzi continued his recent hot streak by scoring his 9th goal of the year during the 3rd period. The play started with a Pavel Datsyuk trademarked offensive zone takeaway. Datsyuk got it to Tomas Holmstrom and Holmstrom's pass was tipped in by Bertuzzi for a 2-0 Detroit lead at 6:48 of the third. Patrick Eaves tapped a Nick Lidstrom pass in behind Mike Smith for a 3-0 lead with 9:10 remaining; more than enough with the way the Howard was playing.

The Detroit win was also head coach Mike Babcock's 300th career win. Along with Howard's first career shutout, the two accomplishments were overshadowed by yet another injury. More on the injury to Zetterberg as it is made known. Howard's shutout marked his 11th win of the year as he stopped all 30 Tampa Bay shots. His GAA is creeping down with his great performances lately and he has won 6 of the last 8 games he started.

MrNorrisTrophy's Wing of the Game: Jimmy Howard. Howie played great in net tonight, stopping every single Tampa Bay shot. He stonewalled excellent scorers like Vinny Lecavlier and Alex Tanguay. The confidence train is a-rollin' for Jimmy.

Jimmy Howard

#35 / Goalie / Detroit Red Wings

Height: 6-0

Weight: 210

Born: Mar 26, 1984

Post Game Analysis: Bertuzzi wins it again

MrNorrisTrophy — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 16:22:21 -0000

More photos » by Kate Humphrey - AP

9 days ago: Detroit Red Wings right wing Todd Bertuzzi (44) backhands a shot past Nashville Predators goalie Pekka Rinne, of Finland, for the winning goal in the overtime period of an NHL hockey game on Saturday, Dec. 12, 2009 in Nashville, Tenn. The Red Wings won 3-2. At right is Predators defenseman Kevin Klein (8). (AP Photo/Kate Humphrey)

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Todd Bertuzzi wins it again in overtime. Yes you read that right, Todd Bertuzzi won it AGAIN. If he keeps this type of production up then we will be in good shape. Do I expect it to stay like this? No, not really but I'll take it for now. Detroit needs secondary scoring and he's starting to get the confidence needed to do so.
Chris Osgood had some pretty sick saves last night. To quote Winston Churchill (sort of), Osgood is "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." There are nights when he can't stop the easiest of shots but then there are nights when he looks like he should have about 8 Vezinas on the mantle. He wasn't really either last night (why he's an enigma) but he was solid and kept the game within reach for the Wings with some incredible saves.
Remember the time when the Red Wings were absolutely dominant in the circle? I miss those days. We did better last night--winning 29 to Nashville's 28--but I sure miss the days of winning about 75% of the draws taken. Can't wait for Fil to get back in the circle that's for sure.
Drew Miller, you were a quality find. Out shadowed by Bert's 4 in 2, Miller had a goal and an assist last night in 12 minutes of play. Sure, he only has 4 points on the season but he brings more than just points. He has been great on the forecheck, PK, and in the corners. Unfortunately, I don't know if there's room for him when Filppula, Franzen, Williams and Cleary come back.
I'm glad I didn't play a drinking game last night for everytime I heard the word "Smashville" used. I was forced to watch the Nashville broadcast (thanks Center Ice) and every commercial break there was someone saying something or other about Smashville. Yeah, I get it. It's a cool nickname but you can't over do it. If I had played a drinking game for that, I surely would be in the ICU or morgue right now.
Bertuzzi's second goal was a thing of beauty. The play started with Datsyuk forcing a turnover and giving Bertuzzi a great outlet pass. He was neck and neck with Nashville defender Klein and protected the puck on his stick before sliding it past Rinne's poke check attempt and then a backhand into the net for the second straight win for Detroit. Highlights of the goal below.

Price / Halak - The Stats - November 2009

Chris Boyle — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:13:39 -0000

What a difference a month makes.

Thirty days ago the Canadiens were in the middle of a goaltending controversy. Jaroslav Halak's agent was NITWITTERING Carey Price's won/loss record, the fanbase had placed the bus in reverse and were attempting to leave a fresh set of treadmarks on Price's back and the Canadiens were plodding through their schedule at .500.

Outside of the Canadiens still flirting with the .500 mark, the attitude regarding the goaltending situation has changed dramatically. Since this article is a retrospective on November, it is heavily weighted towards Price. Halak's one start didn't offer enough of a sample to legitimately track his monthly progress. What began as an even split in October, turned into a clear separation as Price started 11 of 12 games in November, almost rendering the title of this article, and its point, moot for at least the time being. A solid performance by Halak in Ottawa suggest that the busy month of December may tell a different story.

Surprised by the turn this has taken, maybe you shouldn't be. This has been typical of the story that Price has written over the first two and a half seasons of his career. Somehow, instead of the fanbase observing the roller coaster ride from afar, recognizing that as the roller coaster descends, a peak exists for it to climb, they jump on the roller coaster eyes closed screaming for dear life on its mad descents only to extol the virtues of the ride when they disembark.

Should Price struggle in February again, it is likely that the fresh imagery that exists in everybody's minds right now will once again dissipate in a mad panic

Panic in Montreal is generally followed by the rewriting OR ignoring of history. Even with Price's strong November this controversy is not over, it will continue to bubble just below the surface. Should Price struggle in January, the detractors who are silent right now will re-emerge with the same arguments, their memories will once again be wiped clean. While the starting goaltender in Montreal is one of the most heavily scrutinized positions in sports, the easiest may be the backup goaltender in Montreal. The backup's flaws are always concealed under the their baseball caps, their past transgressions completely ignored. This will never change.

At Eyes On The Prize, we continue try to look past the surface level blame and analyze what is really going on. This month we will compare Price's performance in November to October and also look back and try to clarify the factors that contribute to a team based stat like a win / loss record and how it relates to Price and Halak.

One of the main arguments against Price in October was his inability to win games. With Halak sporting a 5-2 record and Price at 2-5, the most simplistic argument was "Price doesn't make the big saves when he needs to" and "Halak wins games". That argument ignored plenty of factors, most importantly that wins are a team based stat.

While perusing the internet I came across an interesting perspective at Brodeur is a Fraud. While trying to debunk the myth of Brodeur's career, he came up with an interesting statistic that he refers to as Win Threshold. It essentially projects out what a goaltender would have had to do to earn a point (.500) by including the teams performance in front of him. In a 3-1 victory, the assumption would be that to earn a point the goaltender would have to allow no more than 3 goals. Inversely, in a 3-1 loss the goaltender would need to have allowed no more than 1 goal.

We can calculate what I'll call the "win threshold" for the goalies on each team by taking (shots against - goals for) / shots against. This gives us the save percentage that would result in the team ending up with an equal number of goals for and goals against over the course of the season. If the goalie's save percentage is above that number, the team is likely to win more than the lose, while anything below the threshold means that the team should end up sub -.500 (or sub -.550 in the shootout era).

This simple statistic beautifully illustrates the career of Chris Osgood AND his playoff run that allowed the media to begin the "Chris Osgood is a Hall of Famer" nonsense.

In 2008-09, Detroit's win threshold was .873, which was the lowest in the league. The Islanders' win threshold was .928, which was not only the highest mark in the league but also the highest of any team since the lockout......Naturally, comparing win totals on goalies playing on the Islanders to goalies playing on the Red Wings is completely senseless.

Using this as a starting point, I compared how this statistic affected goalies on the same team. Was the Canadiens offense responsible for Halak's inflated win total, or was it his superior goaltending? What would Price have had to do to compensate for the woeful offense in front of him? Was it that Halak was receiving an easier ride?

(Let me preface this by stating that this is judging wins and wins alone. If a goaltender was fantastic and had a .960 SV%, but only needed to produce a .895 SV%, it is not devaluing his performance, only stating that his margin for error was very high. I also understand that early saves can keep a team in a period. Teams play to the score and loosen up when they are up big and that some goals are scored late in a game and alter the margin for the threshold. It is obvious that providing replacement value will never replicate the actual performance that history has provided. This theory is being used only to illustrate that wins are a team statistic and that they are heavily influenced by not only what you save, but what offense your team provides).

To put this in perspective, the league average in save percentage is .910.

In order for Price to gain the majority of his wins, he has had to offer above average goaltending.
His margin for error was slim and when he failed to balance on the high wire, he was open to criticism.
A .915 save percentage is currently good to place 20th in the league.

Halak on the other hand was allowed to navigate with a greater margin of error. He only needed to offer a save percentage of .865 to register his 5 victories. Vesa Toskala's save percentage on the season is .863. So any goaltender slightly more competent than Toskala MAY have registered a similar number of victories as Halak.

Both goaltenders would have had to provide Hall of Fame type performances to avoid the majority of their losses.

How would those statistics translate if you offered up average replacement value? If Jimmy Howard and his .910 SV% replaced Price and Halak, the Canadiens would be in deep trouble. The Canadiens would likely be in the hunt for Taylor Hall, not talking about the importance of their December schedule.

Looking at Price's losses below, it is unlikely that an average goaltender makes any impact on his losses, hell, it's unlikely that Roberto Luongo would have made much of a difference.

Price's threshold in his 11 losses is a SV% of 0.944 and a GAA of 1.69. Numbers that would place him above Ryan Miller as the number one goaltender in the league. Six of those starts would have required a .940+ SV% just to procure a shootout. If the team continues to struggle offensively to this capacity, then it is going to require Jose Theodore 2002 MVP type performances to drag them into the playoffs. With Price and Halak entering their RFA season, THAT is a scary and expensive thought.

You would think with Halak's lack of activity in November, that his stat line would remain unchanged, but with only an 8 game sample, one strong start against the Flames resulted in an 11 point improvement on his save percentage and lopping 1/5th of a goal off his goals against average. In October, Price statistically lagged behind in all the major categories, but with a strong month has lessened the paper gap between himself and Halak. I made the argument in October that Price had a higher ceiling, but was prone to wild swings of inconsistency and the 2009 season has proven that out so far.

Through two months, what has been proven, is that the Canadiens goaltending is in good hands. With the transition of turning over half the team, and the numerous injuries to key personnel, the fact the team came through November at .500 is miraculous. At this moment, Halak's consistency offers the perfect compliment to Price, but due to the idiotic actions of his agent (Halak, Halak it a lot?), it is clear that Halak is eyeing a starting assignment, and will not likely find that in Montreal. You may be reading "Price / Sanford: the numbers" by ~~March~~ December. (note: as I am writing this, Sportsnet has reported that Halak has been placed on the trading block).

The fact that I can even mention a 2002 Theodore-like season is based on the strong November showing by Price. Playing behind an injury ravaged defense that produced roughly the same amount of shots as the previous month, from roughly the same areas, Price's numbers improved across the board. Price also managed to avoid a major meltdown like the Vancouver game, as well as producing a couple of 40+ shot gems against the Bruins and Predators.

With Halak pushing Price for the starting job in October, by all accounts Price responded to the challenge with hard work, which resulted in plenty of positive signs over the last month. With hard work Price's confidence level soared and his return to a hybrid style has allowed his athleticism to re-surface, because of this, Price managed to produce some miraculous saves during November. His patience has also been on display, particularly in shootouts and breakaways where once again he is using his huge frame to his advantage and refusing to commit before the shooter. With his gap control improving, he has been extremely hard to beat in 1 on 1 situations. This is a huge improvement on the tentative approach he used in late 2008-09. Add in his aggressive puck handling and his tenacity in battling to track the puck and the hope in Montreal is that Price has begun turning the corner.

Price's save percentage's also improved in almost every category in November, with his biggest improvement coming in shorthanded situations where his save percentage improved by over .200. His woefully low special teams percentage in October masked the fact that he was producing an elite level even strength percentage. With an improvement to mediocre powerplay standards, Price's statistics all experienced a significant jump across the board.

The question remains, what came first, the chicken or the egg? Did the Canadiens penalty kill improve in November because of Price, or did Price's numbers improve because of the penalty kill? Halak did not suffer the same special teams meltdown. Could that have had anything to do with the power of the opposition, or his own play?

With so many new faces and the loss of Markov, it is no surprise that the PK got off to a slow start. With the return of O'Byrne and Gill and the emergence of White and Pyatt, the October implosion by Price should be avoidable moving forward.

Interesting to note if Price had managed to produce an .878 powerplay SV% in October, his overall SV% would have improved from .889 to .920.

Price and Halak continue to get bombarded by shots and the Canadiens have once again regressed into becoming over reliant on goaltending to win hockey games. With the early season injury to the Canadiens best player (Markov in 2010, Koivu in 2002) and the continual 30+ shot barrages, this season is becoming eerily reminiscent of the 2002 season when Theodore needed to provide the difference every night.

With Price's numbers improving in November, the assumption would be that the Canadiens settled down and began to limit shots and scoring opportunities. The Canadiens actually surrendered an extra two shot attempts per game. Price still is averaging over a shot attempt against per minute on the ice, a trend that will either lead to a statistical regression or an MVP award.

In 8 of his 11 starts in November, Price faced 30+ shots, including a team record tying 53 saves against the Predators and a 42 save gem that was seconds short of his 1st shutout of the season. Only once in his 11 games did he have less than 50 shots directed at him. Price continued to excel on shots outside of 20+ feet as he only allowed 7 of 257 shots to beat him. His SV% below 20' feet drastically improved and is pushing towards the league average.

Price offered up plenty of spectacular saves in November, but also had some concentration lapses that resulted in some questionable goals, something that had been absent from his game in October (only 5 of 25 came in as questionable, with zero registering at fault). Although his statistics drastically improved over the month of November, with the Canadiens lack of scoring ability (25th in the NHL) and his unbelievably tough win threshold (see above), his margin for error was slim. This can be witnessed by his 0-4 record in the 4 games I credited a bad goal. In two of the games (Detroit and Atlanta) the margin of victory was one goal, the other two (Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh) were decided by two goals. As he matures, these goals should occur less frequently allowing him to become even more of a game changing player. He isn't yet ready to carry a team, but it seems the Canadiens have given him little to no choice in the matter presently.

Looking at the zones where Price has given up goals, his glove hand continues to be much maligned even though he has only been beaten high glove side 11 times through November (11/53). The reason for the questions lies in the amount of bad goals high glove side. Out of the 12 goals categorized as suspect or bad, 6 have been high glove side, making it much easier to understand AND defend the criticism.

Looking at his November chart also gives the impression that he is very vulnerable low stick side, but looking at the video below shows that a lot of those goals came as the result of cross ice passes in which Price was not able to square up and were the result of him in transition. A small concern for me through two months has been his vulnerability through the 5-hole, an area he has not been able to cover with his stick either in transition or static and squared up.

Goals deemed questionable or bad are marked in bold.

26. Rich Peverley feeds it in front and it deflects off Bryan Little by a moving Price beating him 5-hole. 10 ft.
27. Pass from behind the net to a wide open Peverley in the slot, snaps a shot by Price low-stick side. 14 ft
28. Point shot by Mark Popovic that knuckles by Carey Price beating him high glove side. 59 ft.
29. 5 on 4 PP. Cross crease feed to a wide-open Pavel Kubina who directs it pass Price into an empty net. 5 ft.
30. Kane cross crease pass to a wide open Colby Armstrong who beats Price low stick side. 8 ft.
31. 6 on 5. Point shot. Price makes the initial stop, Patrice Bergeron rebound beats Price low-stick side. 5 ft.
32. 5 on 4 PP. Scramble. Price makes 2 saves but cannot stop Ryan Malone as he beats him five-hole. 11 ft.
33. Price, big rebound and Alex Tanguay alone, chips it over Price beating him high glove side. 14 ft.
34. 2 on 1. Scramble. Wright beats Gorges to the puck and slides it into an empty net. 6 ft.
35. Price highsticked in the throat by Mara falls down leaving an open net. Robert Lang puts it top shelf. 15 ft.
36. Point shot wide deflects into an open net off Bissonnette's skate beating Price low glove side. 12 ft.
37. Price makes initial save, Steve Sullivan all alone finishes off his rebound beating Price 5-hole. 7 ft
38. 5 on 3 PP. Point shot stopped, Sullivan at the side of the net beats Price low stick side. 14 ft.
39. Odd man rush, cross ice feed to the slot. Brandon Sutter chips it over Price, high glove side. 14 ft.
40. 3 one 2, cross ice feed one timed by Jussi Jokinen beats Price low glove side. 32 ft.
41. Eric Fehr snaps a shot from the face-off dot beating Price high-glove side. 25 ft.
42. Morrison takes a pass in front and moves opposite to Price's momentum beating him low glove side. 6 ft.
43. 5 on 4 PP. Brad Stuart point shot handcuffs Price and trickles in. 55 ft.
44. 5 on 3 PP. Brian Rafalski point pass tipped home by Pavel Datsyuk at the side of the net. 12 ft.                         45. Nash behind the net finds Vermette who one-times it past Price beating him high blocker side. 11 ft.
46. 5 on 4 PP. Rick Nash centers it, Stralman cheating off the point beats Price low blocker side. 24 ft.
47. 5 on 4 PP. Antoine Vermette's shot stopped, rebound back to him, beats Price low blocker side. 20 ft.
48. Sidney Crosby snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle beating Price high glove side. 38 ft.
49. Bill Guerin from the corner. Price makes initial save, doesn't hold the post as he beats him 5-hole. 8 ft.
50. Crosby with a beautiful pass to a streaking Sergei Gonchar who beats Price 5-hole all alone. 8 ft.
51. Point shot deflected in front by Brooks Laich beats Price low blocker side. 18 ft.
52. Alex Ovechkin one timer from the top of the faceoff circle beats Price low blocker side. 38 ft.
53. 6 on 4 PP. Price stops a one-timer by Ovechkin, Fehr slides home the rebound beating Price 5-hole. 10 ft.

The November verdict: You have to be encouraged by the performance of Price and Halak through November and the improved penalty kill is a positive sign and a factor in Price's improved numbers. The volume of shots and scoring opportunities remain a major concern. In October I preached patience because of the integration of 10-12 players and the introduction of a new system. With injuries creating a revolving door of players it is likely that this team has still not properly gelled. The Canadiens have fallen into a pattern of struggling to produce offense and relying on Price and Halak to bail them out, and this is a dangerous game to play with developing goaltenders. They have been able to provide some fantastic results through November, but if this continues they will struggle to make the playoffs. To provide room for improvement moving forward, the goaltenders get a B+ for November.

To view the October Price / Halak analysis, click here.

Pre-game thoughts/news: Blues @ Wings

MrNorrisTrophy — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 18:48:26 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

BYAH!

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Finally game day is here after a long wait since Sunday's win over the Rangers. Here's a few things to look at heading into tonight's game:

Ville Leino will sit again tonight with Brad May/Drew Miller/Patrick Eaves filling his spot. I have absolutely no objection to this. When you are unable to produce points you have to be able to provide something else to keep your spot in the lineup and Leino simply isn't cutting it. He isn't producing many points and is sometimes a liability defensively. May, Miller, or Eaves all have the ability to play a tough physical game or provide a lot of energy through speed but Leino is often the one receiving hits and lagging behind.
Justin Abdelkader, the resident Napoleon Dynamite look-a-like, will play some shifts centering the second line tonight. Alongside him will be Dan Cleary and Todd Bertuzzi as Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk are with Tomas Holmstrom again tonight. Abdelkader has earned this spot I think. It would be stupid to break up Draper-Helm-Eaves and Babcock knows that. Abdelkader provides a lot of hits to an already physical line and has a lot skills (hence Napoleon Dynamite reference again) that don't show up in the stat column.
Jimmy Howard's going to start in net again tonight. I like this matchup because of how he has been playing over the past few games. Sure, he hit a speed bump against Edmonton but he's 7-3-0 in his last 10 with one of the losses being the Brad May non-goal against Dallas game and the other being the brilliant night at the other end by Ondrej Pavelec. Howard should have some continued success against a St. Louis team that is averaging 2.39 goals/game, second worst in the league.
Matchup of the night: Pavel Datsyuk vs. St. Louis defense. This defense is tough and hits a lot but we all know the magic Pavel can work at any given moment. I look for him to continue to crawl out of his slump whether its in the goal column or dishing out his exceptional passes.
Brad May fight predictor: 2nd period, Cam Janssen.
Predicted scorer(s): Dan Cleary, Nick Lidstrom (FINALLY), and Tomas Holmstrom

December 8 :: Numbers and Awards

mpetrella — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 00:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

Even in a draft-centric team re-creation, here's your backup goaltender. (AP Photo/Paul J. Bereswill)

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Much is made of the Red Wings' ability to built a championship team while never selecting very high in the draft (**cough**Pittsburgh**cough**). People point to Jonathan Ericsson (the 291st and final selection of the 2002 Draft), Henrik Zetterberg (210th in 1999), and Tomas Holmstrom (257th in 1994) are glowing examples of a draft science that has been perfected by the organization. Sometimes, they pick up guys that haven't lived up to their draft pick, like Dan Cleary and Patrick Eaves, but have you ever wondered what the Red Wings would look like if the team was formed -- and the line combinations were made -- based solely on their draft selection? Well, it would look like this:

Cleary (13) -- May (14) -- Bertuzzi (23)
Eaves (29) -- Ferraro (32) -- Emmerton (41)
Abdelkader (42) -- Tatar (60) -- Draper (62)
D. Axelsson (62) -- Maltby (65) -- Nestrasil (75)
TOP CALL-UPS: Joakim Andersson (88), Valtteri Filppula (95), Johan Franzen (97)

Stuart (3) -- Kindl (19)
B. Smith (27) -- Kronwall (29)
Lidstrom (53) -- Lilja (54)
TOP CALL-UPS: Doug Janik (55), Gleason Fournier (90), Max Nicastro (91)

McCollum (30)
Osgood (54)
TOP CALL-UPS: Jimmy Howard (64), Daniel Larsson (92)

AFTER THE JUMP, some more numbers and award updates

Justin Abdelkader is going to get the opportunity to center the second line against the Blues, but he's the only Red Wing faceoff-taker with a percentage below 50 (minimum 100 faceoffs). He's currently winning only 42.8% of his draws.

The Red Wings have only scored the first goal of a game ten times this season, with Tomas Holmstrom and Dan Cleary each netting that goal twice. Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Draper, Brad Stuart, Drew Miller, and Justin Abdelkader each have the distinction once.

Kris Draper and Niklas Kronwall co-lead the team in goals against division opponents (3 each). Henrik Zetterberg and Tomas Holmstrom co-lead in goals against opponents from other divisions (9 each). Henrik Zetterberg leads the team in points at home (16) and on the road (14).

The only players to have negative +/- both at home and on the road are Dan Cleary, Derek Meech, Brett Lebda, and Todd Bertuzzi. On the contrary, the only players to be positive both at home and on the road are Kris Draper, Patrick Eaves, Brian Rafalski and Nicklas Lidstrom.

Kirk Maltby is the only Red Wing with a point while shorthanded -- an unassisted goal.

Justin Abdelkader leads the way with 78 hits, followed by Brad Stuart (75), Darren Helm (73), Dan Cleary (50) and Patrick Eaves (50).

CHRIS CHELIOS AWARD Update
*Given at the year's end to the Red Wings defensemen with the fewest goals scored in the most games played. The player must have played in at least 3/4 of the team's games. The award is named for Chris Chelios, who scored 23 goals in his final EXACTLY 600 games as a Red Wing (regular season and playoffs).*
1. Nicklas Lidstrom (1 goal in 29 games)
2. Brett Lebda (1 goal in 26 games)
3. Brad Stuart (2 goals in 29 games)
4. Brian Rafalski (2 goals in 26 games)
5. Jonathan Ericsson (3 goals in 27 games)

DANNY CLEARY "SACRAFICE YOUR FACE" AWARD Update
*Given at the year's end to the Red Wings forward with the most blocked shots. Award is named for Dan Cleary, who is used to becoming synonymous with "black eye" and/or "broken jaw."*
1. Darren Helm (20)
2. Danny Cleary (15)
3. Henrik Zetterberg (14)
4. Pavel Datsyuk (13)
5. Justin Abdelkader (9)

DEREK MEECH AWARD Update
*Given at the year's end to the Red Wing with the most games spent in the press box. Award is named for Derek Meech, who was a healthy scratch 35 times last season.*
1. Derek Meech (15)
2. Brad May (8)
3. Patrick Eaves (7)
4. Kirk Maltby (5)
5. Brett Lebda (3)

GREG STEFAN AWARD Update
*Given at the year's end to the Red Wings goaltender that makes you question how they're in the NHL and you aren't. Award is named for Greg Stefan, who played nine seasons for the Red Wings, but only three that had a goals against average under 4.*
1. Chris Osgood (6-5-4, 2.75, .896)
2. Jimmy Howard (8-5-1, 2.55, .910)

MIKAEL SAMUELSSON AWARD Update
*Given at the year's end to the Red Wings forward with the most shots to miss the net. Award is named for Mikael Samuelsson, who literally must have been aiming for the 11th row.*
1. Henrik Zetterberg (52)
2. Todd Bertuzzi (29)
3. Tomas Holmstrom (28)
4. Ville Leino (27)
5. Pavel Datsyuk (21)

PAST AWARD WINNERS
Patrick Eaves Goodfellas Award: Patrick Eaves (last player to be penalized)
Aaron Downey Award: Derek Meech (last player to score a goal)

Red Wings Knock Off Rangers 3-1

joehass — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 03:27:00 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

Jimmy Howard makes one of his 28 saves Sunday night against the New York Rangers

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On a back-end of a two-games-in-two-nights-in-two-cities road trip, the Red Wings would be forgiven if they didn't look their best.

Instead, they played an extremely solid first period, and pulled out a 3-1 win over the New York Rangers off goals from Pavel Datsyuk, Dan Cleary and Kris Draper.

To make things even better, Jimmy Howard had yet another very good night in net, stopping 28 shots, including a penalty shot that would've given the Rangers a 2-0 lead.

And the Red Wings even did something no team had done yet all season: hold the red-hot Marian Gaborik (21 goals in 26 games) to no shots in a game.

The first period saw Christopher Higgins come in to the right of Howard on a three-on-three. Brian Boyle skated up the middle and got past Justin Abdelkader. Higgins saw him, set him up nicely, and Higgins put it past Howard.

Early in the second, Ryan Callahan got past Jonathan Ericsson and was in alone when Ericsson hooked him, earning Callahan a penalty shot. But Callahan's fake wasn't bought by Howard, and when he went to Howard's left, Howard held his skate firm against the post and Callahan couldn't put the puck over it.

Later in the period, Henrik Zetterberg took a 23-footer that bounced off Henrik Lundqvist, but the rebound went to Datsyuk. Datsyuk did not miss, putting it past Lundqvist for his seventh of the season.

In the third with just over two minutes left, it was Zetterberg again setting up the play, coming up the boards to the left of Lundqvist. He passed cross-ice to a fresh-on-the-ice Cleary. With Callahan draped over him and just to the right of Lundqvist, Cleary put the puck to the net, and after going between Lundqvist's legs, it went off his left skate and into the net for the game-winner.

Finally, with six seconds left, Kris Draper took advantage of the empty net to put the sealer in and net his sixth of the season.

The Red Wings ended up with 31 shots on goal, while the Rangers had 29. The Wings are off until Wednesday, when they face the St. Louis Blues.

Player of the game: Jimmy Howard. He made some big-time saves tonight, especially on the Callahan penalty shot. And with every great performance, he makes Mike Babcock have to think a little harder as he moves forward.

Eurotwins Unite!

MrNorrisTrophy — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:16:48 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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Form of: desperation!

Mike Babcock decided to put Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg on the same line for tonight's game against the New Jersey Devils. Is it a sign of desperation? I think so. But that's not to say that the desperation is necessarily a bad thing. We've all figured out at this point that this team simply cannot compete on the same level as last year's team. So why not put your best players together?

Zetterberg and Datsyuk will join their good ol' pal Tomas Holmstrom. The trio has a combined 26 goals (10 each for Homer/Z) and a total of 62 points this season. Datsyuk and Zetterberg have the most assists on the team so they can feed Holmstrom with passes or each other. The two have an undeniable chemistry and sense for where each other is on the ice so hopefully that will work out tonight.

Other news, Jonathan Ericsson WILL play tonight after the injury that forced him to leave against Edmonton. Jakub Kindl will start again tonight as Brian Rafalski will miss the contest against his former club. Eaves is back in and May is out. Osgood will start and so will Brodeur...gee, who has the advantage there?

Lines below from Ansar Khan of MLive.com:

Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Holmstrom
Leino-Cleary-Bertuzzi
Draper-Helm-Eaves
Miller-Abdelkader-Maltby
Lidstrom-Ericsson
Stuart-Meech
Kindl-Lebda