SB Nation - Sean Collins

2009-10 Washington Capitals Season Preview

David M. Getz — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:42:03 -0000

More photos » by Pablo Martinez Monsivais - AP

2008-09 Season Recap: What's really amazing about the Capitals' 2008-09 season is just how much went wrong. The new starting goaltender was inconsistent, finished with mediocre-at-best numbers in the regular season, and was pulled in the first playoff game. The three big free agent signings who had been brought in a year earlier to fill key spots in the lineup failed to make the kind of impact they had in their first seasons in D.C. as Tom Poti missed thirty games, Viktor Kozlov saw his production slip, and Michael Nylander became such a non-entity that he was relegated to the press box for most of the playoffs and sat out the team's final playoff game in favor of Jay Beagle. A largely inexperienced defense corps saw six of its members miss ten games or more due to injury, necessitating 93 man-games from defensemen who started the season in Hershey of the AHL. The second line center position - considered a strength at the season's outset due to the presence of Nylander and Sergei Fedorov - remained unsettled for much of the season. The team's secondary scoring was non-existent at times, and they went through long periods (a.k.a. February and March) looking disinterested and uninspired.

And, despite all of that, they finished with 50 wins and 108 points.

That kind of regular season success is incredible under any set of circumstances, and the fact that the Capitals could perform at that level with so much going wrong should be encouraging to Capitals fans, even in the wake of last year's Eastern Conference Semis Game Seven faceplant that unceremoniously ended the season. It should also put the rest of the NHL very much on its toes.

Make the jump for roster changes, strengths, weaknesses, the team's depth chart, and our predictions.

Who's In:

Mike Knuble, RW - Knuble wasn't the biggest name available this summer, nor was he the flashiest player or the most skilled. But what he was (and is) is the perfect fit for the Capitals - he provides a lot of what the team needs (net presence, grit, size, leadership) where they need it (right wing). Having his 6'3'', 230 pound frame in front of the goal will make things more difficult for opposing goalies during Caps power plays and should give his linemates more space to work with at even strength. And having a knack for collecting and depositing loose pucks around the net won't hurt when he's playing on a line with a guy who has registered nearly a thousand shots on goal over the past two seasons.
Brendan Morrison, C - Morrison is another veteran who was brought in not to change the dynamic of the team or become a go-to guy, but rather to fill a hole and compliment the team's existing core - which is perfect because at this point in his career that's the role Morrison's best suited for. He should provide solid defense on the second line while still being able to keep up with the likes of Alexander Semin, Tomas Fleischmann, Brooks Laich, and Knuble offensively.

Who's Out:

Donald Brashear, LW - There's a part of most Caps fans that will miss watching Brashear drop the mitts for the good guys, but the bottom line on Brash is that his production is going down, his salary is going up, and he isn't getting any younger. Couple those facts with the ability to put a more skilled player from either a defensive (Quintin Laing) or offensive (Chris Bourque) standpoint, and there's no reason to be the slightest bit upset about that fact that Brash will be wearing someone else's red, white, and blue this season... so long as the "team toughness" we've been hearing so much about is, in fact, real.
Sergei Fedorov, C - It's sad to see a legend leave both the Capitals and the NHL, but the reality is that Fedorov, while productive when he played, had durability issues, took too many penalties, and sometimes looked like he had trouble keeping up with the Capitals style of play. They team (some players more than others, no doubt) will miss his versatility and his veteran presence, but we have to think the team will be better off moving forward with a healthy Morrison as the second-line center. We'll always have Game Seven, though, won't we?
Viktor Kozlov, RW - A quintessential example of a player brought in to "bridge the gap," Kozlov was good in 07-08 and barely passable in 08-09 (flunking out of the Dainius Zubrus School of Statistical Inflation). We thank him for his contributions to those two teams (those two tallies in Game Six of the Penguins series were nice), and wish him well in Russia... but we'll gladly take Mike Knuble in his place.

Four Strengths

Elite offensive talent - The Caps' "Young Guns" (Alex Ovechkin, Semin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green) all finished in the top 13 in the League in regular season points-per-game in 2008-09, with Green the only defenseman in the top-60. These kids - not one of whom is yet 26 years old - haven't even reached their respective primes yet. If healthy, the sky's the limit for the quartet.
The powerplay - Piggybacking off that last point, the Caps were second in the league in power play conversion last season when Green missed 14 games, Semin missed 20, and the team lacked consistent net presence (save for Laich). The unit could be even better this year (thanks to Knuble and hopefully healthy years from Chris Clark and Brian Pothier), but even if it's not, it will remain one of the most feared in the League.
Depth on the blue line - At the moment the Capitals have at least eight guys who are clearly capable of taking a regular shift in the NHL, with at least a couple more in Hershey. That doesn't change the fact the team could use another legitimate top-four guy, but it's also an organizational strength very few NHL teams have.
The third line - While we don't know who, exactly, will comprise the third line (especially with Fleischmann and Eric Fehr on injured reserve to start the season), we do know that it will be a strong unit. David Steckel will almost certianly be the center and the wings should be filled out by a combination of Laich, Clark, Fehr, and Bourque (sorry, Matt Bradley Fan Club - we don't see him filling that role long-term). The Caps third line should have everything you look at that spot in the lineup - size, grit, defensive skill, and the ability to chip in on offense - and should ensure the opposition can't afford to take any shifts off.

Four Weaknesses

Discipline - Last year's Caps team took far, far too many penalties that were either lazy, selfish, or unnecessary and, as a result, they were shorthanded as often as just about anyone anyone else in the league. The departures of Fedorov and Brashear should help, but the team still has a lot of guys who take too many bad penalties.
High-end defensemen - Mike Green's just as good as his Norris Trophy Finalist status suggests, and both Tom Poti and and Jeff Schultz are solid defenders who bring a lot of value as penalty killers. After those three, however, there's a pretty steep drop off that inherently results in at least one guy being given more minutes and more responsibility than he should be. The addition - or emergence - of one more top-four defenseman would make a world of difference for this team right now.
Goaltending - Granted, this could turn out to be one of the team's greatest strengths, given the trajectory on which youngsters Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth find themselves. But at the moment, those two kids have combined to play fewer NHL minutes (playoffs included) than incumbent starter Jose Theodore played either before or after last year's All-Star Break. Competition should drive each of the three to be at his best, but the question mark in goal is certainly real in October... which may or may not matter in April.
Enforcement - Bradley's always willing to throw if need be, but doesn't have the win-loss record to match his heart. John Erskine can certainly handle himself when the rough stuff gets going, but concussions have limited how often he's dropped the mittens in recent years. Enforcement, for now, has given way to team toughness. We'll see if that can last for 82 games.

X-Factor: Bob Woods. If the new assistant coach can overhaul the defense the way some people think he can, the Caps could become the team to beat in the East.

Depth chart:

Left Wing	Center		Right Wing
Alex Ovechkin	Nicklas Backstrom		Mike Knuble
Tomas Fleischmann	Brendan Morrison		Alex Semin
Brooks Laich	David Steckel		Chris Clark
Quintin Laing	Boyd Gordon		Eric Fehr
Chris Bourque	Keith Aucoin		Matt Bradley
Oskar Osala	Jay Beagle		Alexandre Giroux
	Mathieu Perreault		Andrew Gordon
Other
Michael Nylander
Defense
Mike Green		Tom Poti
Jeff Schultz		Shaone Morrisonn
Brian Pothier		Milan Jurcina
John Erskine		Tyler Sloan
Karl Alzner		Sean Collins
John Carlson
Goaltender
Jose Theodore
Semyon Varlamov
Michal Neuvirth
Braden Holtby

Predictions

David: In the summer and fall before the 2007-08 season (and before I was blogging) I was yammering to anyone who would listen about how excited I was about the Capitals off-season and how much better they could be as a team. When pressed on how good I thought they were (and could be) my stock answer wound up being that I thought they would be a team that bounced around the last playoff spot or two for most of the season and eventually made it in with a late season run because I expected them to get better as the season went on, that I expected them to lose in the Conference Finals in the next (08-09) season, and to win the Cup the year after that. While I won't be so bold as to predict a Capitals Cup win in September in a public forum, I will say that the team's progression has been even better than I expected. They might not win the Cup, but the Caps should at the very least be in the Eastern Conference Finals - and I expect them to bring the Prince of Wales trophy to D.C.

Pepper: Team toughness sufficient to win a Cup, with or without Brashear, has yet to be demonstrated. That nebulous quality means physical play and an increased willingness to drive to the net "Fred Shero style," but also relentlessness -- keeping the foot on the gas pedal. Too often last season the team would shock their opponents with their jaw-dropping skill and energy, and then coast for the remainder of the contest. And we've seen some of that dynamic in this pre-season already. Regardless of whether or not we see a repeat of that behavior in the 2009-10 campaign, the talent on this team is more than enough for it to cruise to another Southeast Division title.

But, as currently constituted (i.e., well before the March trading deadline), what I foresee as the team's undoing in the playoffs is the lack of a veteran defenseman who has deep playoff, if not Cup winning, experience. Someone who can clear the crease or tie up a stick looking for rebounds. Without that, they'll still likely win two rounds next spring, but falter in the Eastern Conference finals.

J.P.: I think the real challenge for this Caps team will be staying reasonably focused over the course of an 82-game regular season and not picking up some of the bad habits they developed in February and March of last year that carried into the playoffs. The talent is there in spades - if this team wants to win and is willing to do what it takes to win, there's no reason they can't, and no reason they won't. They'll win the East, and then anything can happen.

Poll

Where will the Capitals finish the regular season?

First in the Eastern Conference

549 votes

First in the Southeast Division, but not first in the Conference

501 votes

Not first in the Southeast, but in the playoffs

16 votes

Out of the playoffs

10 votes

1076 votes | Poll has closed

Making the Capitals, September 24 Edition

Stephen Pepper — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 15:00:25 -0000

It all comes down to a home-and-home versus the New Yawk Rain-juhz to settle the opening night roster. Who will have their names emblazoned on those precious few dressing room stalls that are yet unclaimed? Here's a look at the remaining battles, and how each player is trending (to be updated as warranted):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Semyon Varlamov	▲	Acquitted himself well last night in DC, particularly in the second-half of the third. Coach said post-game, "I gotta believe he's got a good chance of being here [on October 1]." We do too.
Michal Neuvirth	-	Your final move, Neuvy. Or it is already "Czechmate," Varly?

Defensemen
Karl Alzner	-	No waiver worries may mean some more time in Hershey to better incorporate that new-found "aggressiveness" into his game.
Tyler Sloan	▲	Twenty three shifts of goodness, as good as any of the six D on the ice, a late second frame strike, and four more blocked shots last night.
Sean Collins	-	Sloan's gain is perhaps Collins' loss. For now.

Forwards
Keith Aucoin	▼	Anything you can do, Mathieu Perreault can do, well, just as well. And with more upside.
Jay Beagle	-	It's abundantly clear now which bubble players at center can win draws at the NHL level and which struggle at the dot. Good thing for him that Beagle's in the former category.
Chris Bourque	▼	Still day-to-day. When do we start "call[ing] it a concussion?"
Alexandre Giroux	-	Perhaps at least one more game to redeem himself from Monday. No room for further ringing-it-off-the-iron error.
Quintin Laing	▲	A couple of blocks, a couple of shots, a lot of energy. Looked real comfortable with Captain Clark and B. Gordon. Solid again on the PK. Gabby: "He's giving it a good chance to make the team."
Andrew Gordon	▼	Four preseason games, four sweaters. But don't read anything into that, says Coach. And precious few shifts or marks on the score sheet to make it all that interesting. Update: Gordon has been cut.

Making the Capitals, September 22 Edition

J.P. — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 15:31:04 -0000

photo: Tic Tac Toe Hockey (click to enlarge)

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While most of the Caps roster is more or less set, there are still some roster spots being competed. Here's a look at those battles, and how each player is trending (to be updated as warranted):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth	▲	Very good in Chicago, but Varly hasn't stumbled.
Semyon Varlamov	-	Still his spot to lose.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner	▼	Alzner took responsibility for the second goal against Buffalo, and was on the ice for both.
John Carlson	-	Not quite there. Update: Carlson has been sent to Hershey.
Sean Collins	▲	Still very much a longshot, but Bruce Boudreau praised Collins after the Buffalo game.
Tyler Sloan	-	Wonder why he's only gotten one game so far...

Forwards
Keith Aucoin	▲	Aucoin scored the Caps' lone goal Monday (on a shot that was going wide), but it's still hard to envision a role for him right now.
Jay Beagle	▲	Received kudos after the Buffalo game, and has been winning a ton of draws.
Chris Bourque	-	Bourque had chances on Monday night, but failed to convert. Still, Boudreau seemed to be happy with his effort. Hopefully, getting his bell rung doesn't slow him down much.
Alexandre Giroux	▼	A double-minor in Chicago for an offensive-zone high stick followed by a mediocre outing against Buffalo may spell the end of the road (for now) for Giroux.
Quintin Laing	▲	When asked about Laing's performance in Chicago, Boudreau replied, "He did what he does, which is making coaches happy."

Making the Capitals, September 19 Edition

J.P. — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:36:59 -0000

More photos » by David Duprey - AP

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While most of the Caps roster is more or less set, there are still some roster spots being competed. Here's a look at those battles, and how each player is trending (to be updated regularly):

Goalies	Trend	Notes
Michal Neuvirth	▲	Perhaps out-performing Varlamov so far, Neuvirth still has an uphill climb to make the team.
Semyon Varlamov	-	Barring an implosion or a significant challenge from Neuvirth, the incumbent will be hard to unseat.

Defensemen
Karl Alzner	-	Bruce Boudreau has said that the Alzner would have to "wow" him to make the team. He hasn't. Yet.
John Carlson	-	There's no need to rush Carlson, and all indications are that the team won't.
Sean Collins	▼	Collins is a long shot to make the Caps, but a better bet to pass through waivers.
Tyler Sloan	▲	If there is a roster spot open on the blueline, Sloan is the clubhouse leader, not only because he would have to pass through waivers to be sent to Hershey, but also because of his solid, if unspectacular, play.

Forwards
Keith Aucoin	-	If the Caps needed a scoring-line center, Aucoin would be in better shape right now.
Jay Beagle	▲	Beagle was strong in the first preseason game, scoring the game-tying goal, winning 70% of his draws, and taking four shots on goal. His sandpaper doesn't hurt, either.
Chris Bourque	-	The fact that he'd have to pass through waivers to be sent down - and he wouldn't - makes him a good candidate for a roster spot, but he still has to earn it.
Alexandre Giroux	▲	Dude just keeps scoring goals. If the Caps want to replace a top-six wing without juggling the other lines, Giroux could be the man.
Quintin Laing	▲	Boudreau loves Laing, and the gritty winger helps one of the weakest facets of the team's game - the penalty kill.

Tuesday Caps Clips: The Chase for the Cup

J.P. — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:37:48 -0000

via the shoebox next to my desk

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Your savory breakfast links:

The first game of the Duchesne Cup tourney highlighted yesterday's camp action:
- Group C jumped out to a 1-0 start with a 4-3 win over Group B. Kind post-scrimmage words for Andrew Gordon, Mathieu Perreault and Sean Collins, among others. [Capitals, In The Room]
- Vogs recaps the scrimmage, including Q&A's with Bruce Boudreau, Matt Bradley and Brendan Morrison. [Caps365 (video)]
- Five-hundred words on "opportunity," and two of 'em are "Jan" and "Benda." [Dump and Chase]
- Peerless recaps the day (with photos to boot). [Peerless]
- As does OFB. [OFB]
- Tarik on the goaltending situation. [Washington Post]
- Corey on the captain. [Washington Times]
- More on Tomas Fleischmann's injury. [In The Room]
- Can Alexandre Giroux make the jump from Chocolatetown to Chinatown? [John Walton Hockey]
- Pictures! [TTT Hockey, Caps in Pictures (and again), sk8]
- Neither Mike Green nor his ride are bound by conventional rules. [Rock the Red.net]
The Caps shot their video open last night and (spoiler alert!) it doesn't appear that there's any eye-liner or hairspray to be found. Check out some quick vids here, here and here and pics here.
TSN.ca's fantasy rankings are out, and you can check out their point projections here. Apparently Michael Nylander has a 48-point season ahead of him. In the NHL. We'll take the under (and the over on Alexander Semin's 66 points). [TSN.ca]
There are "currently only two NHL players that are bigger than the sport." Sorry, Schultzie, you ain't one of 'em. [XM204]
Pierre LeBrun's got some burning questions. Perhaps someone can suggest a soothing ointment to help him out. [ESPN]
CapsChick gives her take on the goalies. Jason Bacashihua sheds a single tear. [VFtCS]
In the second installment of "Behind the Bench," Boudreau recalls his 9/11 story. [Capitals]
Finally, happy 56th birthday to Ken Houston and happy 51st to Joel Quenneville.

For Those Defensemen About To Shoot, We Salute You

Stephen Pepper — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 16:00:14 -0000

photo credit: Graig Abel/NHLI via Getty Images

This one's for all of those fans who, watching defensemen walk the line, looking to dish, yell "Shoot the puck!"

Fans and coaches alike have, since the beginning of the season, encouraged backliners like Milan Jurcina to blast a few more shots on net.

As Juice himself said back in October:

I am supposed to be defensive defenseman, so I don't really think much offense. But if there is decent chance there to shoot the puck, why not?

Aside from Mike Green (and perhaps to a lesser extent, Tom Poti), every other Capitals defenseman thinks defense first. That's accepted, and most often necessary: move the puck quickly around in the D-zone, get it up ice, and let the substantial forward talent on this season's Caps team work their brilliant designs on the other net.

But what I set out to do here was create some measure of how much offensive pressure that defensemen other than Green apply on a game-by-game basis, at even-strength, and see if the results confirm what we would logically predict: when those defensemen are more offensively aggressive, pushing the play, sending more rubber toward the net, the team is more successful.

So I added up the total SOG + total A/B + total MS credited to all of the Caps defensemen not wearing #52 in a single game, to create an aggregate number of attempts on the net in that game ("ATT/G") by the rest of the D corps. Even attempts that miss the net or get blocked can result in strange caroms and might keep the pressure high in the offensive end more often than not.

Why take Green out of it? He's more or less a constant: one of the Big Four upon which this squad can, and must, rely on a nightly basis.

And only eight of his 25 goals on the season have come at ES. I wanted to isolate ES play, especially since the effectiveness of the team's PP, at 24.6% and 2nd in the league, leaves far less room for improvement. Taking the one D who spends the most time patrolling a PP point position, almost to the exclusion of all other Caps defensemen, was the simplest way to do that. (Plus, event summaries do not separate out these ATT/G at ES from those occurring while on the PP.)

Here's a breakdown of average ATT/G by month, along with the team's record:

	ES goals by "other" D	record*	ATT/G
October	2 (Jurcina, Sloan)	(5-4)	7.2
November	3 (all by Poti)	(8-7)	9.7
December	4 (Alzner, Jurcina (2), Morrisonn)	(11-3)	13.0
January	2 (Collins, Schultz)	(7-5)	11.1
February	2 (both by Morrisonn)	(9-4)	9.6
March	0 to date	(4-5)	11

* For simplicity, I treated all losses of whatever type (regulation, OTL, SOL) as "losses." So making the Caps' record to date (44-28).

What first struck me was that the team's highest ATT/G figure occurred during its most successful month to date (December). You'll recall that, in that month, the torrential injury storm that sidelined blue line stalwarts like Green and Poti and Jeff Schultz necessitated lengthy stints by call-ups Sean Collins, Bryan Helmer, and Tyler Sloan. Guys that, perhaps, were eager to be a little more aggressive and impress the coaching staff with their ability to play in both ends of the ice.

Looking at the season as a whole, the Caps other D average 10.6 ATT/G in wins, and just 9.4 ATT/G in losses. Pretty significant difference.

And when one of those other D-men manage to pot one, the results are extraordinary: an 11-1 record (the lone loss coming in San Jose, that 7-2 beat down). The kind of secondary scoring that seems to automatically guarantee a victory. The average ATT/G in those 12 contests is, well, 12. The average ATT/G in all other 60 games is 10.

So the more ATT/G are generated, the more likely it appears that one of those other D will score, and that the Caps earn another W.

One more final note: Add in Brian Pothier on a consistent basis, and we could really see some offensive pressure from the blue line at ES from a second pairing (i.e., when Green's not on the ice). Potsy finished second in shots per game during his roughly half a 2007-08 campaign, and was first in that department in the 2006-07 season.

Game Day - Capitals @ Lightning

J.P. — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:00:16 -0000

[AP Preview - WashingtonCaps.com Preview]

In each of the first three games between the Caps and Bolts this season, Washington has out-scored Tampa three-nothing in the first period, and each time it has come against a different goaltender. Be it Olie Kolzig, Mike Smith or Mike McKenna, none has been able to keep his team from finding itself in a 3-0 hole after twenty minutes of play.

Next up - Karri Ramo?

What's particularly interesting about the Caps' early onslaughts against Tampa is the guys doing the scoring. Sure Alex Ovechkin has one. Alex Semin, too. But five of the nine goals have been scored by defensemen - two for Mike Green and one apiece for Tom Poti, Shaone Morrisonn and Sean Collins. In other words, three of the 13 goals scored by Caps' defensemen other than Green this season have been scored in the first period of a trio of games against Tampa. That says a lot, and none of it's good (for either team, really).

Speaking of defensemen, when Matt Lashoff suited up the other night, he became the 20th blueliner that Tampa has used this season and the 48th player overall (NHL record: 55). To put that in some perspective, that's a whole six-man blueline more than the injury-ravaged Caps have used this season (counting Sergei Fedorov), and three players shy of the 51 players that got a sweater for at least one game for Washington during the 2003-04 season (where have you gone, Roman Tvrdon?).

I could go into greater depth about how terrible a team the Bolts are or mention that they're 2-0-2 in their last four or that they've lost five of their last seven games, but that's all largely irrelevant, because it doesn't matter who's on the schedule - if the Caps show up and play hard, they'll win, and if they don't they'll lose. Simple as that.

What To Do With The New-Found Cap Space...

David M. Getz — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 16:53:27 -0000

As you're well aware by now, Chris Clark will have surgery on his injured right wrist and may miss the rest of the season, an announcement that sparked a significant amount of discussion among visitors here at The Rink. For Clark, the injury is another setback in his efforts to return to being the player he was two seasons ago. For the Capitals and their fans, the injury may be a blessing in a not-so-subtle disguise: Clark's placement on long-term injured reserve (LTIR) opens up an additional $2,633,333 in cap space and, consequently, a whole new range of possibilities in terms of personnel moves as the trade deadline approaches. [Ed. note: by my math, the current Caps roster of 22 players is around ~~$3.2~~ $2.4 million under the cap; down from $4 $3.3 million before accounting for recently recalled Michal Neuvirth.]

Before starting any discussion it should be noted that the biggest question here is what to do with Karl Alzner. The rookie defenseman has shown that he's capable of playing regular NHL minutes, and the Capitals have shown they're willing to give them to him. However, with Tom Poti back in the lineup and the team's other defensemen playing well, it's not as obvious as it once was that keeping King Karl in Washington should be the team's top priority.

What we've done here at Japers' Rink is constructed five scenarios that we could see playing out in the next several weeks. Obviously they're not set in stone and each of the scenarios could play out slightly differently, but the scenarios are designed to be starting points for discussion. With that in mind, feel free to chime in: What are the Capitals most pressing needs? How should they fill them? Are there any players who have more value as trade bait than as members of the Capitals organization? By the same token, are there players who would provide an especially big boost by fitting in well with the current team or by filling an especially pressing hole? And, most importantly, what course of action gives the team the best chance at the Stanley Cup, not only this season but down the road as well?

Scenario #1 - Do nothing.
Transactions: None.
Pros: For the NHL club, no transactions means no opportunity to damage the team's chemistry, which seems to be strong. Alzner would probably get more ice time in Hershey than in Washington. The biggest positive in this scenario is that the team would be able to accommodate Brian Pothier's return to the lineup, should he become healthy enough to play without having to make any roster moves.
Cons: $4 million in cap space is an awful lot of cap space to sit unused for a team that expects to make a deep playoff run. Alzner might play more in Hershey, but at this point he's probably better off playing 19 minutes a night in the NHL than 25 minutes a night in the AHL.

Scenario #2 - Add a scoring wing.
Transactions: The Capitals trade for an offensively talented winger to add offensive depth.
Pros: You can never have too more scoring depth in the playoffs and given Michael Nylander's season-long struggles, Brooks Laich's inconsistency, Alexander Semin's lack of durability, and Viktor Kozlov's playoff stat line (zero goals, six assists in 23 games), the team might find itself regretting not taking the opportunity to add more offense.
Cons: As it is, the Caps are fifth in the league in both goals per game and powerplay conversion rate, so upgrading the offensive might not be the best use of resources. It seems like every playoff contender is looking for secondary scoring as the deadline approaches so the asking price for any player of value is likely to be high. Eric Fehr still has a significant amount of offensive upside and has been waiting for an extended chance to show what he can do and Chris Bourque looks to be NHL-ready.
Potential Targets: Nik Antropov (28, Center/Right Wing/Left Wing, Toronto, $2.05 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Jussi Jokinen (25, Left Wing, Tampa Bay, $1.81 million through 2008-09, RFA thereafter); Mark Recchi (41, Right Wing, Tampa Bay, $1.5 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter).

Scenario #3 - Add a depth forward
Transactions: The Capitals trade for a gritty, third-or-fourth line player.
Pros: The Capitals don't have a lot of grit and attitude at the forward position beyond Donald Brashear and Matt Bradley. Depth forwards are generally inexpensive both in terms of salary and trades and thus acquiring such a player might allow the Capitals to fill a hole and keep Karl Alzner in the NHL.
Cons: Eric Fehr and Chris Bourque are both still buried on the depth chart in this situation. With as much scoring talent as the Caps have it may be difficult to find space for a grinder or agitator.
Potential Targets: Adam Hall (28, Right Wing, Tampa Bay, $600,000 through 2010-11, UFA thereafter); Ian Laperriere (35, Right Wing, Colorado, $1.15 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Dominic Moore (28, Center, Toronto, $900,000 through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Jed Ortmeyer (30, Right Wing, Nashville, $750,000 through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Samuel Pahlsson (31, Center, Anaheim, $1.4 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Richard Park (32, Right Wing, New York Islanders, $750,000 through 2009-10, UFA thereafter); Jon Sim (31, Left Wing/Right Wing, New York Islanders, $1 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter).

Scenario #4 - Add a defenseman without changing the current roster.
Transactions: The Capitals trade for a depth defenseman to shore up their blueline depth going into the playoff run and postseason.
Pros: Boosting depth at defense is always a plus, especially the grind of the playoffs. As admirably as Tyler Sloan, Sean Collins, and Bryan Helmer filled in, the Caps are going to be in trouble if they have to ask those guys to play 15 minutes a night in the postseason.
Cons: With Alzner included, the Capitals already have seven NHL caliber defenseman and adding another might just create a logjam. As with scoring depth, it seems like everyone is looking for depth defensemen in January and February so the asking price may be higher than what's worth it for the Capitals.
Potential Targets: Greg de Vries (36, Nashville, $2.5 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Bret Hedican (38, Anaheim, $870,500 through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Jordan Leopold (28, Colorado, $1.5 million through 2008-90, UFA thereafter); Marek Malik (33, Tampa Bay, $1.25 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter) Jason Smith (35, Ottawa, $2.5 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter); Anton Volchenkov (26, Ottawa, $2.5 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter).

Scenario #5 - Upgrade the defense, moving a current player and acquiring a better one.
Transactions: The Capitals would first trade away Shaone Morrisonn and then make another trade for a defenseman to retain depth at the position and increase the overall talent level on the blueline.
Pros: The combination of taking Clark's $2.63 million and Morrisonn's $1.975 million salary off the books would give the Capitals $4.605 million in space to work with, and a total of $6.05 million. Recalling Alzner would take $1.675 million of that away, but the team would have $4.38 million left to work with - more than enough to land a quality defenseman.
Cons: As with any move that involves taking a player off the current roster, chemistry is a concern.
Potential Targets: Greg de Vries (36, Nashville, $2.5 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Jordan Leopold (28, Colorado, $1.5 million through 2008-90, UFA thereafter); Niclas Havelid (35, Atlanta, $2.7 million through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Bret Hedican (38, Anaheim, $870,500 through 2008-09, UFA thereafter); Tomas Kaberle (30, Toronto, $4.25 million through 2010-11, UFA thereafter); Jay McKee (31, St. Louis, $4 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter); Chris Phillips (30, Ottawa, $3.5 million through 2010-11, UFA thereafter) Jason Smith (35, Ottawa, $2.5 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter); Mike Van Ryn (29, Toronto, $2.9 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter); Brendan Witt (33, New York Islanders, 2.77 million through 2008-09, $3 million from 2009-10 until 2010-11, UFA thereafter); Anton Volchenkov (26, Ottawa, $2.5 million through 2009-10, UFA thereafter).

So what do you think? Should the Caps sit tight or make a splash, however small?

Poll

Which scenario would you like to see the Caps pursue?

Scenario #1 - Do nothing

76 votes

Scenario #2 - Add a scoring wing

29 votes

Scenario #3 - Add a depth forward

25 votes

Scenario #4 - Add a depth defenseman

43 votes

Scenario #5 - Upgrade a defenseman

252 votes

425 votes | Poll has closed

John Erskine, Revisted

J.P. — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 17:22:06 -0000

[Ed. Note: I'm thrilled to introduce DMG as a new contributor to The Rink (then again, he's really been contributing here for a long time already). You know him from his own site, Caps Blue Line, and of course from the comments here, so enjoy his first post and be sure to welcome him formally aboard.]

It would be fair to say that since I started writing about the Capitals I’ve not exactly been a friend to John Erskine. Last February I called Erskine "a liability against most NHL caliber forwards". During the team's playoff series against Philadelphia I wrote that taking Erskine out of the lineup was "the most obvious" step the team needed to take in order to win the series. Over the summer I wrote that having Erskine under contract at all was a mistake that was hurting the Capitals when it came to getting under the salary cap.

Recently (that is to say, since Erskine's January 13th return to the' lineup) I've found myself becoming more and more of a fan of Erskine. At first glance, there’s no obvious reason why, as Erskine’s basic statistics aren’t any better this year than they were last year:

John Erskine	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	SHG	GWG	GTG	SOG	PCT
2007-08	51	2	7	9	1	96	0	0	1	0	48	.042
2008-09	24	0	2	2	5	31	0	0	0	0	23	0.0

Of course, no one would try and argue that John Erskine is anything other than a defensive defenseman, and thus many of his contributions to the team are unlikely to show up in a basic stats line. With that in mind, I did a little number crunching in an effort to better quantify Erskine’s contributions and compare him with his teammates.

Here’s how Erskine stacks up so far this year, with "Rank/7" being Erskine’s rank among the team’s top seven defensemen (Erskine plus Mike Green, Tom Poti, Milan Jurcina, Karl Alzner, Shaone Morrisonn, and Jeff Schultz) and "Rank/9" being his rank among the nine defensemen who have played fifteen or more games for the team (the aforementioned seven plus Tyler Sloan and Sean Collins). All statistics other than plus/minus are given as frequencies as to how often a play occurs. Ergo a low number is good for hits, but bad for giveaways.

2008-09	Erskine	Rank/7	Rank/9
Plus/Minus	5	4th	4th
Hit Frequency	6:39	1st	1st
Blocked Shot Frequency	12:53	3rd	4th
Giveaway Frequency	41:12	2nd	2nd
Takeaway Frequency	412:00	7th	9th

The number that most obviously jumps out is takeaway frequency: in his 412 minutes of play this season, Erskine has registered just one official takeaway. However, if you look at Erskine’s numbers as compared with the six Capitals blueliners who were regulars both last season and this season and aggregate the numbers across the two campaigns, Erskine fares much better:

2007-08 through 08-09	Erskine	Rank/6
Plus/Minus	6	4th
Hit Frequency	7:24	1st
Blocked Shot Frequency	13:11	2nd
Giveaway Frequency	26:57	4th
Takeaway Frequency	57:46	4th

The numbers don’t paint an overly flattering picture but they do seem to suggest that Erskine is a quality NHL defenseman; one who will make a hit, block shots, and generally keep the team out of trouble, an assessment that is much more flattering than one I would have given at the season’s outset.

But of course, it’s impossible to discuss Erskine’s role on the Capitals without discussing his new contract, a two year, $2.5 million dollar extension that kicks in next season. Sure, he might be a decent enough NHL defenseman, but is he worth the money and, perhaps more importantly, the cap hit?

Not too long ago I would have said no, but the going rate for stay-at-home defensemen is higher than you might think. There are a fair number of players who are statistically similar to Erskine making comparable salaries including Ossi Vaananen ($1 million), Ken Klee ($1.25 million), Denis Gauthier ($2.1 million), and Jim Vandermeer ($2.6 million). Naturally some of the players with similar statistics are better than Erskine. However, Erskine has one advantage over a number of comparable players as well: he can fight.

Erskine will never be the top tier heavyweight Donald Brashear is, but he is good enough to make most opposing players think twice before taking any liberties and to make forwards just a little more reluctant to go the net when he’s on the ice. But what is a fight worth? A recent paper suggests the going rate is about $11,000 for any fight and more than $18,000 for winning, the aggregation of which can be see in the salaries of players like Brashear ($1.2 million), Georges Laraque ($1.5 million), Todd Fedoruk ($1.05 million), Derek Boogaard ($950,000), and Eric Godard ($750,000). All are decent enough forwards but all also make substantially more money because of their pugilistic skills. Having one player who can play and who can fight is a better option than having to use an additional roster space and contract for a player who’s useless when his gloves are on. It would be difficult to put a number on Erskine’s additional value to the Capitals because of his fighting ability but I’d be comfortable calling it at least $250,000.

Perhaps the most important consideration in evaluating both Erskine’s performance and contract is to think of the alternatives. Being able to take a regular shift in the NHL without putting your team in frequent peril is a skill that is much rarer than it might seem, something Capitals fans who have watched Bryan Helmer, Sean Collins, and Tyler Sloan this season should know. NHL teams are aware of it as well – more than a half dozen "depth defensemen" are moved every year at the trading deadline, as playoff contenders look to shore up their defensive ranks.

More than double the league’s minimum salary might seem like a lot for a player whose general job is essentially to eat up ice time without making any major mistakes until the more skilled players recover enough to get back on the ice. But the reality is that there simply aren’t very many people capable of doing that the NHL. John Erskine is one of the people who is, even in spite of his mediocre skating ability and tendency to take too many penalties. On that basis alone, a pretty strong argument can be made that he’s worth his new contract.

Poll

What do you think of John Erskine's two year, $2.5 million extension?

It's too much in dollars and/or years

109 votes

It's fair in dollars and years

105 votes

It's a bargain in dollars and/or years

7 votes

221 votes | Poll has closed

Sunday Roundup - Habs 5, Caps 4

J.P. — Sun, 11 Jan 2009 15:46:54 -0000

[AP Recap - Game Summary - Event Summary]

Prior to last night, the Caps were 20-1-1 when leading after two periods on the season. They were 27-1-2 in such situations a season ago, 21-1-5 in 2006-07, 18-1-3 in 2005-06, 20-0-3 in 2003-04, 27-1-3-2 in 2002-03, 24-1-4-1 in 2001-02, 27-1-4-0 in 2000-01, 26-1-3-0 in 1999-2000, and 23-1-2-0 in 1998-99. So in nine-and-a-half seasons, the team had carried leads into the third period 275 times and lost only nine of those games in regulation, with no more than one of those losses coming in any one season. Until last night.

I'll give this to the Caps, though - when they blow it, they blow it big, giving up four third period goals for the first time since December 29, 2007 (a game they still managed to win 8-6).

Bruce Boudreau - denied a chance to stand behind the Eastern Conference All-Stars bench by virtue of the loss - said it best: "We allowed four goals in the third period, and it is just dumb hockey."

It's easy to throw Milan Jurcina under the bus (as Boudreau did) on this one for his mistake with just seconds left, but there was enough blame to go around, not just on that play (Karl Alzner's failure to clear the puck at the top of the zone, Brent Johnson's inability to stop a stoppable puck), but throughout the game - Eric Fehr's lack of backchecking and Sean Collins' poor positioning on the second Plekanec goal, Tyler Sloan's second consecutive game with a horrible and costly penalty, Tomas Fleischmann's inability to play the point on the Plekanec shorty, the team's failure to recognize that four-on-four hockey means you can only put four skaters out on the ice, etc.

There were some positives to come out of the game - Alex Semin's two goals, Michael Nylander's second multi-point game since October 25 and his second goal since October 16 - but the game leaves a bad taste in one's mouth because of the way it happened (including the questionable officiating involved in the unravelling). Then again, with Tom Poti, Jeff Schultz and John Erskine healthy and the team's number one netminder between the pipes, some of the above-mentioned players aren't even in uniform, much less on the ice in the last minute of a tie game.

There's little rest for the weary Caps, with Edmonton coming to town on Tuesday, a visit to Pittsburgh on Wednesday, and the Conference-leading Bruins coming to town on Saturday. Last night's loss capped a frustrating weekend for the Caps and their fans in fittingly frustrating fashion, but it's important that it remains just that - a frustrating weekend. If it continues into the week...